0:00This is the all-world receiver T Higgins man, and only the real ones know that Matt Kelly is a fantasy guru The
0:07Podfather is the best in the game Who dat?
0:10This is the Mind of Mansion Podcast, I'm here with Brandon Dgula!
0:13Hopefully that's how you pronounce his name, Gula Dgula, he's the man, he's the man from Late Round Quarterback, LateRound.com He is
0:20the right-hand man of JJ Zachariason, we're gonna have a lot to talk about This guy knows ball in a very, very
0:27deep way And I think we're aligned on some things, and I think that we also disagree about some players in particular
0:34So we're gonna get into that, players we're fading, players we love, players where the news is fake, players where the news
0:40is real There's a lot coming up on the Mind of Mansion program We're gonna talk Luther Burden and Roma Dunze We're
0:47gonna talk about, just in general, this Bears offense We're gonna talk about the Falcons offense There are some offenses that we're
0:54generally staying away from, and there are some offenses that we absolutely love And I think there's gonna be a couple offenses
1:01that we love that most people hate And I'm excited to get to that as well But let's just start with the
1:08Bears, because Ben Johnson comes out He says he wants to break the record for most points scored Feels like a setup
1:14I don't love this, because I want a Dunze I want Loveland I'm in on this offense So when a coordinator sets
1:21himself up to fail like that, I kinda hate it So I'm like, please don't do that Like, it's almost like he's
1:28been reading too many fantasy articles That are basically attributing the whole offense to him and his genius That, please don't do
1:35that Just get out of the way and let these incredibly talented players play How do you see things playing out in Chicago?
1:42Yeah, I mean, you know, you come at the king Like the 2013 Broncos, you best not miss, right?
1:48Like that's kinda what he's setting himself up for Is greatness or bust Like when that's your goal, you know, it's kinda
1:54all or nothing But, look, I bet golf, I model out golf Like I'm used to that sort of all or nothing
2:01But, no, I mean, they do have some ways to go to get to that level They were 9th in EPA per
2:08play last year 9th in EPA per drop back 5th in EPA per rush 9th in overall offensive success rate So if
2:15you look at their EPA per play last year It was .08 The 2013 Broncos, a little bit higher at .21 Which
2:22is a pretty insurmountable number So again, they have a ways to go But, you know, they have an offensive line that
2:28projects well They've got, you know, talent Especially a pass catcher The running backs themselves I think they're still a viable duo
2:35DeAndre Swift Pretty big, decent explosive rush numbers Which you wouldn't necessarily expect from him Based on what he's done in the
2:42past At various times But I think there's like the building blocks here Where this really is a top 5 offense And
2:49what I like most is You're getting a coach who says We know what we're capable of And we're gonna go after
2:56it Not, hey, we're gonna try to just get out here And we wanna win the division You know, one game at
3:02a time Like, when you set your sights high That's what I love to see So I'm feeling optimistic here And I
3:09don't think that he's setting himself up necessarily For failure I think there's a lot to like about the Bears I like
3:16the aggressive I like the approach Please, by all means It's just, it's just It seems a little premature To make that
3:23statement And it's just so hard To be an offensive coordinator That truly moves the needle It's a very high bar Like,
3:29we have some evidence That Sean McVay Is calling some plays That other teams won't call Don't call Haven't thought to call
3:36And then the very next year Everyone tries to go back And watch the Rams And figure out what they're doing And
3:43do that Yeah, it's one guy Right? And then there's the Shanahan coaching tree Call it two guys Out of 32 That
3:50we can know For sure That talent agnostic They're above average coordinators And they're gonna get a little bit more Out of
3:57their players Than offensive coordinator X For team Y Ben Johnson's trying to break into that He hasn't done it yet According
4:03to fantasy gamers He's already done it And he's already gonna be A hall of famer But I just wanna Please let
4:10him do it Let him let the Let Caleb Williams Break out fully And let's just enjoy this I'm in on Caleb
4:17Williams For sure It's funny like It's not typical That the player I'm most excited about Is the quarterback Because in fantasy
4:24You know, I mean Think about your site Right?
4:27Late round Late round quarterback That's how it all started With JJ Zachariasen The book Late round quarterback Why?
4:32Because Who fucking cares If a quarterback? It's fantasy football Right?
4:36There's plenty of them out there And a lot of them score about the same So don't worry about it That's the
4:43premise But with the Bears I'm very excited about Caleb Williams It's funny like All their skill position players Get all the
4:49buzz And then you don't hear as much About Caleb Williams But I'm like no, no, no Caleb Williams If there's a
4:56record to be broken It's Caleb Williams Breaking all the Bears records That's on the table Caleb Williams Being the season leader
5:03in yards Very, very much on the table Very attainable I'm so here for it You wanna put the bar somewhere else
5:10And set yourself up Where now all of a sudden You're gonna get fired If you just match last year's Very good
5:17top 10 EPA per play You know, rather not But okay And also like to draft some of these guys Once in
5:23a while And it's very hard To draft these Bears Because everyone's in on them So guys you can actually get A
5:30dunesay You can actually get Caleb Williams And DeAndre Swift DeAndre Swift The light came on for him Pretty exciting to see
5:37a guy Who was athletic A big time playmaker in college And suffer through A number of seasons Where he was just
5:44good And he was underperforming His athleticism And his body language Was some of the worst in the league And that got
5:50I mean you could argue That was one of the reasons Why he left Detroit Was body language But they just didn't
5:57Like Dan Campbell Wanted someone Who was going to like Bare their teeth And get mad And when you watched Hard Knocks
6:04He was just not here for it He's like Listen man I got my hands in my pockets here And I'm just
6:11taking it all in And I'm pretty good So just give me the football And don't worry about it Don't try to
6:18make me Into something I'm not And if there's one thing I like about Ben Johnson It's that he's embraced The players
6:24The players are playing If you get the most out Of DeAndre Swift And Dan Campbell couldn't That to me That's pretty
6:31good And he knew Swift from He was the coach of They were together in Detroit Now they're together in Chicago So
6:38right there Of all the indicators That this guy's An above average coordinator That's probably the one That I would point to
6:45But no one else Would point to that No one's pointing to His relationship With DeAndre Swift But I actually think That's
6:52a pretty That's also a pretty strong indicator That he knows what he's doing Yeah and they were I mean they were
6:58A better rushing offense Than passing offense By EPA per play last year And like Caleb is You know it was kind
7:05of I don't want to say generational But a clear like number one pick Like one of the better prospects In the
7:12last like 10, 15, 20 years And there's a chance That he becomes I don't know if he's going to become 2013
7:19Peyton Manning Which might be what he needs to be To sort of break these records But there are the pieces there
7:25And that's why You know and we saw glimpses It was one thing last year To kind of project things out And
7:32assume things will go a certain way But to start to see this And have a season of it And see different
7:39players Like already start to thrive Especially later in the season I think there's enough To like cling to To feel like
7:46yeah This is kind of the real deal Maybe this is a real Difference making coach Yeah so I had a big
7:53argument With Johnny Tuma On the Dynasty Deep Dive show About how much coordinators And coaches matter I then put a poll
7:59up Where I asked everybody Hey how much do they matter Did you see this poll by the way That I posted
8:06I did not but I'm interested In the results Spoiler alert I was disappointed I was disappointed In how high everyone went
8:13With the share of credit That goes to coaches For particular performances And the public comes in Comes roaring in Saying more
8:20than 30% I thought that I was balancing I thought I was balancing The choices By having 0-5% That is 5.3% Yeah
8:27So 5.3% of people Know what they're doing And understand football Then it's like 6-15% 16-30% More than 30% 41% Of my
8:33audience This is not ever This is my audience Me So what do you think If Colin Coward Were to post this
8:40It would have been like 80% More than 30% They would think More than 30% Of the credit For any given element
8:47Of offensive production Should be credited to the coach Which is such a huge number It's just stunning to me But it
8:54actually says so much About analysis Because on any given play When you're watching a broadcast The more likely analysis Or comment
9:00is going to be Offensive coordinator X Drove a great play Not player X executed at a high level Yeah I wonder
9:07Maybe people just took it A little bit more like The output And the impact of coaches In terms of like Coaching
9:14matters Certainly In the sense of Who's on the field Like we can think A player is great If the coaching staff
9:21Doesn't And doesn't put this player On the field That's when coaching Really can impact things Maybe people took it A little
9:28bit that way Which is what I would say Like yeah I mean It's close to like 100% Because we might Have
9:34our darlings And That's true They don't see the field So like maybe that's where it was Yeah at one point Ben
9:41Johnson could have been like Listen man We're running this offense Through a Lombardy Zaccheaus Yeah He could have done that He
9:48had the power to do that Yeah and it's like Well then Colson Loveland We can love him Not gonna get the
9:55ball Yeah he does He said no we're gonna play Colson Loveland at H-back And our starter is Cole Komet And Colson
10:02Loveland's Gonna have to earn it And for now He's gonna play some H-back We're gonna play him In our Jonnu Smith
10:08role Yeah and he's gonna be The John O.
10:11Smith of this team And so certainly The coaches are empowered To destroy a team Yeah they could absolutely They have the
10:18power To destroy offensive productivity There's no doubt about that That there's I guess the question would be How much do coaches
10:25Optimize their personnel And that's with play calling That's with pace of play And okay That's a scale that I'm interested in
10:31But assuming That at least the best players Are on the field If we at least assume that Yeah Right and that
10:38they're at least running Like say league average motion rate League average pace of play At what point are the plays That
10:45are being drawn up On the white board At what point are the practice habits And all the technique that's being taught
10:52That's what I'm talking about Yeah I'm assuming baseline competence Right that's why we say Oh well You know Remember when Matt
10:59Patricia Tried to be an offensive coordinator Like yeah okay We're assuming baseline competence Of course Yes that's a great way of
11:05putting it Coaches have the power To completely destroy an offense But let's just assume That they're They've made it to this
11:12The top of the food chain And they're not going to do that Now how much does it matter The plays they're
11:19calling Versus How much talent Is out there And also Once you get to a certain level Of an offense You If
11:26If you've done your job as a coach In all the preparation In all the development Then you should be eager To
11:33hand the keys over To the quarterback And You're not even involved Did Does anyone ever give like The Colts offensive coordinator Under Peyton Manning any credit?
11:41No Because everyone knew He was just watching He was just there to be helpful If you need me Peyton Right?
11:47Or It was It was always this Funny Meme about The Patriots coaching tree The Belichick coaching tree Being so bad Because
11:54they never really Had to do anything So to me It's like Listen It really is Zero to five percent And It's
12:01closer to zero percent The better the team is And the better the quarterback is And if you're at five percent If
12:08you If you're mattering at five percent Given like baseline competence You probably have a rookie quarterback Or you probably have a
12:15quarterback problem Yeah I did some research For the late round newsletter Throughout the off season Great newsletter by the way I
12:21get that newsletter One of my favorite newsletters Thank you Back in January I looked at kind of The impact of like
12:28A new head coach Or new coordinator Later on in the off season I looked at like How sticky Certain stats are
12:35And just to kind of like Reduce it very simply Teams regress Like Teams will improve When they get a new coach
12:42Or coordinator In general But they're probably Getting a new coach Or coordinator Because something was wrong And they were Sort of
12:48below average And then things get better But it doesn't stay better Necessarily It regresses back Tward the league average A little
12:55bit So like I was trying to figure out Just exactly Like how much A new coach Or new coordinator Can you
13:02know Bring to a team And it's like We do see A bit of an improvement But it's also like When you're
13:0925th In the league In offense You're probably not Like yeah you may You might be 32nd The next year But like
13:16more likely You'd probably be closer to 16th And it's like It's kind of what we see in general There are going
13:22to be outliers Every time I do something like that You know you get a question of like What about when there's
13:29You know a veteran quarterback You can't In a research study Over 10 years Like you can't say Well this quarterback Had
13:3690% of the say And the you know The coordinator was just kind of there And named Like you can't do that
13:43So if you you know Take it all Digest it and like Kind of just spit it out It's like teams In
13:50the NFL Is sort of about regression To the mean In some form or fashion And it's only like On the very
13:56very extreme Like tail ends That teams are great Year after year And teams are really bad Like year over year So
14:03it's kind of just like Shuffling that middle And that's kind of what we see With coordinators So I'm with you Where
14:10like I don't think it matters To a substantial degree In terms of like optimizing How much you get out of players
14:17It's more about deployment Making good decisions And using the players Who are actually talented That's that's my take But that's kind
14:23of where I am with it Yeah and there are certainly Bad coaches That slow play Their best players To their own
14:30detriment Yeah That's the biggest problem It's not that they're Overplaying their best players The biggest problem We have with coaches Is
14:37that they don't play Their best players enough For whatever reason It is it There's one team That I think Could break
14:44the brains Of the coach worshipers This year Do you know what team that is?
14:48A real A real Basically checkmate In like three moves For me Okay Do you know what it is?
14:54Can you guess? I can't I want to hear where you go with this The Jets having An above average offense Because
15:01Because They love to wave The Frank Reich sucks flag And if Frank Reich Is just Good enough If he's just Competent
15:08Like if he can Get out of his own way And play Omar Cooper More than it sounds like They want to
15:15And And please By all Pivot off of this Isaiah Williams nonsense If they could just Play their best players If they
15:21can get Sadiq out there And be Be creative about Their 12 personnel packages Because I also think Mason Taylor Is a
15:28quality Two-way tight end They have One of the better Talent configurations Especially in the Passing game It's basically Everything you would
15:35want If you drew up A fantasy Real NFL team You would want to Have a satellite back Like Brees Hall You'd
15:42want to Have an alpha Like a guy that Can catch anything Everywhere A spider-man alpha Like a Garrett Wilson A field
15:49stretcher Like Adonai Mitchell A slot guy Like Omar Cooper A 12 personnel Like Sadiq and Taylor It's exactly What you would
15:55want So to me This is a great test Where if If this fails I can always Blame Geno Smith So I'm
16:02in a great Position And the Expectations are Very low So if If Frank Reich Can quote unquote Refix Geno Smith And
16:09just basically Deploy really High quality Skill position players In garbage time And put up a bunch Of points I'm going to
16:16look Like a genius And it's going to It's going to make It's going to make The coach centric Analysts Very uncomfortable
16:23Now they're just Going to forget it They're going to move on And they're going to Pivot to the next guy Next
16:29year Right There's going to be A whole new Best coach next year And I really You know I'm conflicted About Ben
16:36Johnson Because Ben Johnson Flaming out Would really Help me too But I don't want that Nobody wants that Nobody wants that
16:43I just want to be On record I'm not a masochist Here And I'm here For fantasy points But it's It would
16:50be nice To be right And everybody Get to score Fantasy points And the best path For that to happen Is for
16:56the Jets To ascend Yeah I mean You have You laid out the case They have the talent They just need to
17:03Get out of their own way Geno gets a bad rap I think In terms of His efficiency At times When he
17:10can Carry an offense You know Why can't they be I think there's Like a chance To be better than this But
17:17like Think of the Cardinals Last year Right Like they supported Fantasy pieces There's no reason This team can't do that too If I were channeling J.J.
17:25Zacharisen When he's writing The book Late round quarterback I don't even know If we had super flex leagues Back then This
17:32was a long time ago It was like a decade ago I think super flex Was invented back then I couldn't dream
17:39up In fiction A better second quarterback For a super flex team Than Geno Smith Based on the book That J.J.
17:45wrote Yeah I think Like I think Geno's fun I've been getting Some Geno stacks In best ball On DraftKings You can
17:52pair him With a lot of Different players late Even if you don't Get Brees or Garrett Wilson People were just Way
17:59off of Kenyon Sadiq I think Kenyon Sadiq Is a transformational talent People didn't I thought I was Going to be contrarian
18:06Honestly When I started Looking at his profile So I helped revamp The tight end model At late round The zap model
18:12I dug deep Into tight end Looked at a lot of stuff And I was like Okay Kenyon Sadiq He's the clear
18:19Tight end one This class I'm like No There are some Holes in this profile Like I'm going to be Kind of
18:26A little bit Contrarian here And say Hey look Like it's not all You know Sunshine and lollipops With Kenyon Sadiq Turns
18:33out Even though I was A little bit lower Than I thought I would be People just don't like Kenyon Sadiq And
18:40I don't get it To the point that I'm like I'm rooting for Kenyon Sadiq To have a great career Because people
18:46are just like No You know Super young Super athletic Tight end Taking top half Of the first round In NFL draft
18:53I don't get it Like I'm just like I think we're overthinking it Because people were like No Eli Stowers Is a
19:00better prospect And it just Wasn't really the case Eli Stowers Great production profile But like He's not the same No Come
19:07on It's funny Dynasty Dynasty guys are right on this They're dead on on this I mean Sadiq in all formats Goes
19:13at least five picks Ahead of Stowers Yeah Now Around the time of the draft People were like Maybe Maybe Sadiq isn't
19:20even The best tight end In the class Maybe it's Stowers For fantasy I Okay You're right I heard that a little
19:27bit But it's It's interesting That because Because No tight ends Have been getting Any buzz at all You haven't seen this
19:34Because I've been in Rookie drafts I took it all Over all these orphans I took over 20 orphans In 20 days
19:41And I keep getting All these residual orphans Given to me Yeah And so I'm in all these Rookie drafts all the
19:47time And The disparity Is actually widening Even though Sadiq is out See Sadiq had this setback With the abductor And that
19:54is If he were practicing Like You're in a great position Because If you're getting A bunch of Sadiq He's out He's
20:01not He's very inexpensive Like he's Get him in You're getting him In the Arande Gadsden zone Right Arande Gadsden Likely You're
20:08probably getting After those guys Right He's falling After those guys So What's not to like If he can just Time it
20:15And this is By all reports Going to happen He's going to time it So that he's finally 100% Just as the
20:21season Is starting And he has all this Raw ability And they're going to Want to get him on the field They
20:28invested all this Capital in him So it's got It's If he were a second Or third round pick If this was
20:35Eli Raritan He's fucked Like if you miss All of preseason And you miss a bunch Of camp as well I mean
20:42I don't want He participated in Like a few practices In OTAs But he's been very Very limited to out Throughout the
20:48spring And summer If you're a third rounder You're buried You're done You know You're stashed On the taxi squad And we'll
20:55see you next year A guy like Sadiq No No Sadiq could just Time it right Get right Just as the season
21:02Is starting And there was And you had to fight No buzzy headwinds Throughout draft season So like Sadiq I think is
21:09like You mentioned The coaching stuff Frank Reich's used Tight ends Historically At a high rate And if you look Historically At
21:16first round Tight ends Taken especially In the top half Of the draft In their rookie season It's a smaller sample Over
21:22the last 10 years They've averaged Almost at 20% Target share as rookies Which for context Last year would be About to
21:29tight end 10 And like Sadiq To me is just He has a path To be the wide receiver Two Because it
21:36doesn't Seem like they love An actual wide receiver Two behind Garrett Wilson And when we talk About 12 personnel Like he
21:43should be On the field As much as he can Handle And to be honest Like if you look Deep at his
21:50profile He had a lot of Competition at Oregon At various times You know playing Behind Terrence Ferguson Who we probably All
21:56think now At this rate Is going to be pretty good Or a lot of people do I won't say everybody But
22:03there's a lot To like about Terrence Ferguson Tez Johnson Troy Franklin Bucky Irving Jamari Johnson Is going to be He's you
22:10know He's expected to be The tight end one For this upcoming class He's you know So tight end competition There And
22:17one of the things That I don't think People ever bring up With Sadiq Is he played with Three different quarterbacks In
22:23his three years That doesn't help He can't you know I just think that There's so much to like About Sadiq I
22:30think I'm with you Where like You have to You have to figure out Which offenses You're willing to Kind of buy
22:37in on And for the most part Outside of Garrett Wilson And Brees Everyone's very affordable In different fantasy drafts Depending on
22:44the format So I like Sadiq a lot I'm still drafting him In best ball And If you're getting him You know
22:51In dynasty Right now Like You're probably Getting a value Yeah You're getting It's a couple picks Usually you're getting Yeah A
22:57value Where you probably Should go a couple picks Especially in tight end premium Should be going a couple picks Earlier than
23:04I've been Seeing him go You're starting to see him fall Sometimes people are reaching For like a Denzel Boston Over him
23:11And that's just a mistake That's just a flat out mistake But there's buzz Right There's buzz with Boston Boston buzz Not
23:18the offense I want exposure to So no thanks But There is buzz With Denzel Boston There's No buzz With any tight
23:25ends That I can Did Oscar Delp Has a little bit of buzz And It's great because He wasn't productive in college
23:31But a lot of these guys at Georgia There's so many There's so much talent Like Just like with Oregon There's so
23:38many Pass catchers And But also at the same time They have like A carousel At Quarterback That makes it difficult To
23:45produce Lad McConkie Wasn't a big time producer At Georgia either And so now You take a guy Like Delp With that
23:52talent profile That level of Athleticism Drop him into an offense And Suddenly He's making plays But He's the only one I
23:58was hoping I was expecting A little bit From some of these Other tight ends Justin Jolie Matt Hibner Somebody But I've
24:05We got nothing Yeah Delp too Like you mentioned Lad McConkie He played behind Lad McConkie He played behind Brock Bowers And
24:12he's got Like the athleticism To sort of do more In the NFL Than he did in college And I think if
24:19you look Again I dove deep Into tight end this year And it was a good year for it Because of the
24:26historic Number of tight ends That were Not only invited To the combine But eventually drafted As the NFL Shifts to This
24:32heavier personnel But if you look at Like if you go down The list It's not that surprising Why there's not more
24:39buzz You know We talked about Sadiq already We talked about Stowers a little bit But I mean he I mean there
24:46has been Less than zero buzz On Stowers Yeah And it's like Look if you look At Stowers And say What are
24:53the Like what happens For him not to Have a good rookie season Or a great NFL career And it's like He
25:00doesn't transition Well to the tight end Position At the NFL level Because he's a Converted quarterback A bit smaller frame Compared
25:06to Like you know He needs Small enough frame In terms of like The blocking And the physicality Was always the kind
25:13Of concern It seems like That's what's Holding him back He might be stuck In the middle Of like Small tight end
25:20Big receiver Doesn't fully hit The talent You know The data on him When you adjust For everything Is phenomenal But we're
25:27getting What we thought Was Or what I thought Was like The bear case For his first hours And that's just Kind
25:34of what's Happening Like you go down The list Even more Nate Borkutcher Blocker Marlon Klein Kind of fun Honestly Yeah But
25:40he's a project Played behind Some good tight ends At Michigan Max Clare It's going to take Him a while With the
25:47Rams They always slow Play their rookies I think he's like A Mark Andrews Light kind of profile I think he's just
25:54Going to be a good Receiving tight end Once he gets going But it's not going To be immediate Sam Rausch Kind
26:01of fun But he's a blocker With some juice He's buried on that Depth chart In Chicago Delp We talked about Like
26:07has the Athleticism Needs a chance He's going to play Indoors with the Saints That's always fun Will Kazmarek Was next He's
26:14a blocker Eli Raritan Like behind Hunter Henry You know New deal for him It's like None of the Receiving tight ends
26:21Justin Jolie Tanner Koziel Really got The high end Draft capital It was more The projects Or the blockers Which was not
26:28What you would want From a fantasy standpoint So the two that did In Sadiq And Stowers Haven't been You know Lighting
26:35it up Exactly So yeah That just doesn't Leave a whole lot You're not going To get like Hey Nate Borkutcher Is
26:41like making All these blocks Like it just Wasn't going to Happen So like if you I mean if you're If you're
26:48taking A chance on One of those Jaguars Rookie tight ends You want it to Be Tanner Koziel But like all Of
26:55the guys With receiving profiles Not all of them I mean outside Of Sadiq and Stowers They basically all Fell And that's
27:02like A real bummer Like Jack Endries I thought could be fun He's a seventh rounder To the To the Bengals But
27:09Tanner Koziel Yeah One of my favorite Blurbs that I found Was he led two Different offenses In receptions Back to back
27:15years That's just kind of Fun in the Transfer Window Era of college Football Between Ball State And Houston So just kind
27:22of Like fun there But you know He's not going to Make an impact This year That whole team Is just Super
27:29deep So yeah There's not a lot To get excited About at tight end Even though It was a historic Class It
27:36was always A little bit Overrated In that sense The Roster Watch Reports from Jaguars Camp They love Brenton Strange They love
27:42Brenton Strange Not surprising Brenton Strange Is good Brenton Strange Is a value As much as I Want Kozio Because he's Huge
27:49And he has Great receiving Skills I'm very hopeful I probably Have maximum Exposure To him Because he's So available In the
27:56fourth Round Even in tight end Premium leagues You can get him In the fourth round Him and Hibner Are the guys
28:03With nice receiving Profiles and Athleticism That make it To the fourth Round You can't get Delp In tight end Premium Rookie
28:10drafts He goes third Round Jolie is Like three Four turn So then A lot of times It's like Hey Kozio Again
28:16Gotta wait A year Or however Long Tight ends They are Exposed To a lot Of collisions From the Side And also
28:23Over the Middle They've got Safeties Bearing down On them As receivers They've got Edge rushers Hitting them From all Sides So
28:30there's A reason Why they Get injured More than Most positions So for That reason Whether it's Hibner Whether it's Kozio All
28:37these Guys Especially Raritan Get them Don't worry Too much About the Depth chart Because There's Just There's Going to Be a
28:44Lot of Of Volatility Across The Across The league At tight End There always Is And The one With the Smoothest Path
28:50Seemed To be Jolie But Again No Buzz Nothing I look Every day I type In Justin Jolie News Nothing Yeah Like
28:57when I first Was Looking Into Jolie I thought He was Going to Like Not Break The Model But be Like one
29:04Of these Standout Like Something Like 260 Some Pounds At NC State And He Weighed In At 230 It Was 239 Or
29:11Something Crazy Just On The Opposite End Of The Spectrum It's Like Okay He Was A Converted Receiver I Assumed That Many
29:17Put On A lot Of Muscle But He Actually Weighed In A lot Lighter Than That So That's Probably Going to Be
29:24Doesn't Necessarily Mean That Teams Are Just Putting A Receiving Tight End Like A Justin Jolie In The Flex And It's Like
29:31Technically It's 12 Personnel Like It's A Mix And I Will Say Like One Of Maybe Adjustments Were Made Maybe More More
29:38And More That Offenses Want To Put An Extra Tight End On The Field Just To See If It Lasts Forever Because
29:45Eventually It's The Meta Right Now Meta Has Change And If Coaches Decide That's What We're Doing Then That's Bad News For
29:51Well Maybe Not Parker Washington Who Might Be Out On The Field For Every Snap According To Reports Like That's Bad For
29:58BTJ It's Bad For Jacoby Bad For Travis Hunter Is Right Up To The Electric Wire Talking About Liam Cohen You Can't
30:05Say Anything Bad About Him He's A Genius He's A Genius It's For Sure There's No Way Last Year Was A Moment
30:12In Time No He Fixed Trevor Lawrence And He's Going 12 Personnel Is The Most Efficient Way To Go And The Front
30:19Office There Clearly They Know What They're Doing I Mean They Only Had The Worst Draft In The History Of The NFL
30:25Draft According To Just Mock Draft Projected Slot Versus Where Players Were Actually Selected But Never Mind All That This Is A
30:32Franchise Moving In The Right Direction They've Got Geniuses Everywhere Making Decisions Let's Just Enjoy It Or Or We Can Simply decide
30:39Or Or Pinpoint The One Player Who Is Going To Be Immune From All Of This And Also Brenton Strange Because It's
30:46A Screaming Value And He's Going To Be On The Field All The Time So Who Do Know Is Going To The
30:52Field Brenton Strange Parker Washington Those Just Happen To Be The Jaguars I Draft The Most Yeah I'm On The Parker Washington
30:59Train I Think Brenton Strange Is Great I See The Case For BTJ But To Me Some Some Sources Have Him Just
31:06As A Complete Afterthought By Comparison To The Other Two Receivers In Terms Of ADP It Just Depends On Where You Look
31:13Where You're Drafting But I Mean You Go Back To The Coaching We Can Say Whatever We Want About Coaching If They're
31:20Not Going To Play Travis Hunter It Just Comes Down To Who's On The Field Which I Think He Should Be That's
31:26Really Appealing It Is It Is There's A Few Teams Where Both Tight ends are quality pass catchers thinking of the saints
31:33so the saints you have that with delp and juan johnson the jets mason taylor you you would consider him an adequate
31:40receiver right would you consider him a a a two-way a proper two-way tight end like he's a quality receiver but also
31:47a great blocker yeah i would say so hunter henry ish i could see it yeah yeah michael mayer hunter henry the
31:54raiders that's the one thing the raiders have i just drafted again again michael mayer in dynasty uh as every i just
32:00look at the contracts i'm like this guy's he wants to go somewhere else and now where they're taking nate borkucher or
32:07whoever the hell i know i have to i'm gonna mispronounce son if i get your name right i'm not gonna no
32:14you got that i got borkucher right too borkucher yeah i hear bo richter a lot oh jesus christ what's gotten into
32:21me dagula borkucher i'm on fire okay and we're gonna get one wrong soon travis bunter there you go no it's just
32:28what a sucker move drafting travis hunter good luck with that everybody yeah yeah uh talk about one of my mantras this
32:34year is listen to teams when they tell you what they are and what they want to do and so you can
32:41certainly you can run out right you can you can go over the wall right and run through no man's land your
32:48guns a blazing with travis hunter and again best of luck best of luck with that one we'll see i mean eddie
32:55what's it so i've got michael mayer is probably gonna be commanding a huge contract next year they're gonna their teams are
33:01going to target him another player that i'm stashing in these super flex titan premium dynasty leagues that is available at the
33:08end of draft startups is a throw-in we mentioned his name earlier cole comet he someone is gonna throw money at cole
33:15comet some team is gonna throw money at michael mayer one day maybe three years from now some teams gonna throw money
33:22at mason taylor but so these are just like minor strategy points when you're in a super flex titan premium in particular
33:29i don't i haven't been in a single titan titan premium startup i'm sure they exist but the the the titan premium
33:35format you have to get creative you got these deep benches and dynasty so i like to go with the young the
33:42cause y'all and the hipners who are a year away at least and you're hoping things break their way and then the
33:49guys that you know are going to command big contracts when they hit free agency like a comet like a mayor and
33:56try to stay away from the the mediocrity yeah there's a lot of mediocrity at tight end i also think people to
34:03go back to like kenyan sadiq i think people like have a strange perception of what is realistic for tight ends because
34:09like he was drawing comparisons in in the zap model it's like an evan ingram and people were like oh this guy
34:16must suck it's like no evan ingram was like a top 10 tight end consistently early on he just wasn't he's not
34:23brock bowers he's not travis kelsey so it seemed like with sadiq he did have at least one travis kelsey brock bowers
34:30level season didn't he have like a did he have 100 catch season once evan ingram he had a we had one
34:36at least monster season we'll look it up right now we're gonna look at which season he had it was an absolute
34:43monster our best comp for sadiq did you see what it was uh noah fan vernon davis oh i like that yeah
34:50yeah ours that goes back farther than than our zap model database would um but yeah i mean it makes sense he
34:57like so he also got the noah fan comp and people were like i know fan was never good it's like like
35:04he was better than people remember it's just people kind of expect if you're not brock bowers or travis kelsey or george
35:10kittle which george kittle has a whole own conversation based on his draft capital people are like yeah if that's not his
35:17comp like he must not be very good people just kind of like in the tight end meta i think people got
35:24a little bit out over their skis and like what a projectable outcome for a tight end has been i was wrong
35:31again apologies uh i was wrong evan ingram did not have a 100 catch season it was 114 2023 i'm dead wrong
35:38it was 114 yeah he just never scored a lot of touchdowns in a season like that that was the big thing
35:44like p like again you get those touchdowns he's people think of him differently but it's it was a good like it's
35:51a good career and what could have been if he were on a better team that yeah and like so you could
35:58say the same thing about like wow what if what if sadiq does that but never scores more than like four touchdowns
36:05in a year it's like okay but i contend sadiq's on a good team now offense anyway there you go yeah offense
36:11anyway we don't want the defense to be good right that's why that's why we're not in on the houston passing game
36:18you don't you don't want that you don't want those problems you don't want coach walking into the office saying we're gonna
36:25we're gonna eat nails again today uh we're gonna be crawling over broken glass again today that's the or when they go
36:32at any press conference uh our identity is toughness and running the ball yeah the last time i checked ben johnson's not
36:39talking like that and then what about the actions i said well let's just coach talk what the what the front office
36:45does matters that's that's when they tell the truth right okay where's the contract for cj stroud anyone anyone see the contract
36:52for c i haven't seen it i don't did they did they lock up their keystone edge rusher yes anderson got the
36:59big deal got the big contract drafted the same draft they traded up to get both these guys will anderson and cj
37:06stroud back to back will anderson has the life-changing contract cj stroud showed up this year as a new guy trying to
37:13get the contract and so far crickets and so that's just one of those reasons why on a team like that where
37:19it's not one of the nfl's prolific offenses my general approach is to say i'm either in on the passing game or
37:26the running game based on their identity it's a very simplistic way again i've become a simpleton i've actually i went from
37:33a very complicated uh sort of overly complicated sort of rube goldberg model for player evaluation just because i didn't know how
37:40to harness the power of my own tool uh and now i've streamlined it to well they want to run the ball
37:46so david montgomery i mean they're favored a ton this year they're not in a bunch of you know offensive shootouts it
37:53should script well for montgomery who is honestly a very capable running back i know woody marks is there he can take
38:00the the passing game work but david montgomery can catch the ball too um and i just like i think a cj
38:07stroud and like yeah he had the rookie season hasn't always been there and there were like kind of a lot of
38:14mouths to feed when it comes to the the passing offense too it just depends on how you feel about each individual
38:20piece like you know nico collins is someone i'm not as high on based on where he goes in drafts compared to
38:27teams there are receivers on teams with just much better baseline offensive projections and then you have like between three and four
38:34other pass catchers who can eat into that and with a you know a quarterback who i don't necessarily love and again
38:41like you said an identity that's like if if game scripts go the way that they should go they should be winning
38:48games that are lower scoring and you just kind of eat the clock you know get cj stroud his like 202 and
38:54kind of just go win the game with your defense like that doesn't really move the needle for me with nico so
39:01like you know nico collins is one of those names that i'm a little bit cool on um compared to other players
39:08uh but i think it goes it goes along in with what you said about just the offensive identity and simplifying things
39:15a little bit so i've been higher on david montgomery than i would have anticipated uh going into this season big time
39:22i'll take it a step further i'm not drafting nico collins ain't doing it he's on my do not draft list i'm
39:28not doing it i don't i don't there's way too many great choices there and there's way too much sex appeal the
39:35sex appeal opportunity cost is way too high in that zone of the draft i'm not sorry that i'm not in on
39:42him i know this is he's one of those sacred cow guys where he's been good consistently and those players need to
39:49be rewarded because we can then set our watch by them and they they can't let us down until they do until
39:55they do until they're just a little bit too expensive and it's so obvious they're too expensive but man adp says i
40:02gotta draft him i gotta draft him uh i don't i don't do that i don't i i said it already he's
40:09certainly he can fall to a place that i'm comfortable drafting him but he's never going to do that same thing is
40:16going to happen same thing with trey mcbride my guy my sacred cow if your sacred cow is nico collins uh that
40:23you're willing to sidestep that that is sort of blasphemy i'm the same way with trey mcbride last time i checked they're
40:29not favored to win any games by vegas at all and now marvin harrison jr's back i mean he's falling down he's
40:36slipping and falling he can't catch the ball like it's like both his both his like hands and his feet are slippery
40:43it's very weird uh he needs to have like some more grip on the gloves and longer spikes shoes and maybe we
40:50can get him just the equipment manager is letting him down it's not his fault oh no it's not his fault it's
40:57someone else's fault with marvin harrison jr it's always someone else's fault and now they're going up against a division somehow that's
41:03even more ferocious with miles garrett now in los angeles that means staying in the block a little bit more for trey
41:10mcbride there's just there's a chipping away of the target share that i think is going to happen all the way down
41:17to elijah higgins the return of elijah higgins and you keep seeing these clips of marvin harrison jr falling down but he's
41:24not the deepest player when you watch these clips of marvin harrison jr dropping passes there's a player typically deeper than him
41:30and his name is elijah higgins they have him running these seam routes uh and sideline routes it's very interesting because this
41:37is one of those teams this is maybe the under the radar team that has two quality pass catchers where elijah higgins
41:44is it was a converted wide receiver he was good at the 2023 senior bowl he was there he's good and i
41:51was like i'm interested in this guy and now he's back he's healthy and you're just going down the roster it's very
41:58straightforward if it's the bears and they have commit in loveland it's very straightforward some of these teams you actually have to
42:04just know everyone's going to be running more 12 personnel and 13 personnel and just find the tight ends that are going
42:11to be hitting the field and he's another one of those guys like a michael mayer like a mason taylor where they're
42:18not going to break out but i mean i'm old enough to remember greg olson he didn't break out originally on his
42:25original team i'm old enough to remember martellus bennett martellus bennett was was stuck he's probably the best example where he was
42:32stuck behind jason whitten that was never going to happen right yeah but then he goes to the giants and suddenly boom
42:38he's a top five tight end and so there's a lot of these types of examples if i had to go as
42:45deep as possible it would probably be elijah higgins but that's not i mean he's not the reason you're driving it's more
42:52just the situation is so set up to fail for the the these these cardinals we've even talked about jeremiah jeremiah love
42:59almost said jeremiah smith uh that had been that had been a shot at uh marvin harrison jr uh an elite ohio
43:05state wide receiver prospect who's actually going to be good in the nfl sorry marv but i meant to say jeremiah love
43:12i did say jeremiah love uh because i've been correcting myself and getting things right this whole show very very impressed with
43:19my pronunciation and just general linguistic capabilities probably top of my game right now jeremiah jeremiah love is going to be operating
43:26in uh in trade mcbride's zip code now whereas before it was james connor and that just wasn't a factor james connor
43:33is going to get what's blocked at this point in his career he's going to catch passes when he is in the
43:39flat and the the play calls for it no jeremiah loves gonna be running real routes and they're gonna have to coordinate
43:46who's gonna run the route here now between him and mcbride and mcbride staying in the block miles garrett on the ground
43:53what's actually going to happen not the stats they put up two years ago and last year what's going to happen this
44:00year makes me simply unable where i've seen it where i might my finger is hovering over the button and i cannot
44:07do it dude can't do it that's a lot of capital to spend in a fantasy league on a cardinal yeah i'm
44:13i'm with you i've been way more receptive in my best ball drafts which has just been the majority of what i've
44:20been doing uh you know over the last month or so i've been way more receptive to brock bowers than trey mcbride
44:27i know some people have it probably closer but like you want to talk about expectations the the raiders are closer way
44:34closer to like a 500 team than the cardinals are you know the the cardinals just don't have the i don't know
44:40like the keys to breaking through i think there's a chance that the raiders are like good or decent and so to
44:47me when you compare the two it's it's bowers over mcbride and then you get you know you go past mcbride there's
44:54other interesting names at the position as well so i'm with you like it's it just comes down to for me with
45:01nico for you with mcbride it's like a certain point let the offensive expectations help break some ties or like help you
45:08make stands and you know everything went right for mcbride last year that's not a guarantee that it's going to go right
45:14for him this year all many of the reasons that there's predictions of a mike i mean it's the most cliche prediction
45:21in all of fantasy right now the michael wilson regression right well mcbride was benefiting from some of those forces too right
45:28the all the uptempo the volume that mcbride was benefiting as well but he's not getting the blowback he's not getting any
45:35any negative sentiment for me i don't know how bold this is tell me if you think this is bold i have
45:42bowers tier one and then i have mcbride warren loveland in tier two i have them all tied basically mcbride by a
45:48little bit and then loveland by a little bit after him and then warren slightly behind him but i have them tightly
45:55clustered but when you look at adps there's a much bigger gap yeah and it depends on like the source you're looking
46:02at too with adp some sometimes loveland and warren are clustered together but sometimes there's some space sometimes you know bowers and
46:09mcbride are just almost back to back sometimes there's some space but um right now like i mean i don't think there's
46:15any any place and i don't think it's ever going to happen where adp says loveland's being drafted earlier than trey mcbride
46:22like this is not going to happen so at cost like i'm taking loveland over mcbride i'm taking warren over mcbride at
46:29cost just because like i think that the path for these guys and the offenses especially in loveland's case just better than
46:36what we're going to get from trey mcbride and like yeah maybe he just has you know 150 target season gets over
46:43a thousand yards has like seven touchdowns and i just don't know if he's going to be like the game changing tight
46:49end that he was last year again this year especially if they kind of change quarterbacks so you don't know when that's
46:56going to happen if it's going to happen um so yeah i think there's just other concerns with mcbride that as you
47:03mentioned probably aren't being factored in quite to the degree that they maybe should be keep checking our rankings because i'm not
47:10going to make any promises but you know as you know situations on the ground continues to play itself out in chicago
47:17with colson loveland being the beneficiary of target share don't be surprised if end of august you look at our rankings and
47:23our cheat sheets and you see loveland ahead of mcbride just be ready just be ready because the you know yes a
47:30dunes they will benefit from any games missed or any games where luther burden is less than 100 but i really think
47:37it's loveland i mean loveland leading all tight ends and touchdowns loveland leading the bears and receiving touchdowns these are all things
47:44that are very much in play and your model love loveland i love loveland uh but uh so i'm not gonna i'm
47:51not i'm not ready to say it yet just because you don't have to make that decision the adp is there's such
47:57a why there's no reason to be that crazy uh you know outside the adp uh sort of a boundary for these
48:04players but if adp starts to adjust a little bit especially if if loveland continues to climb and climb and climb and
48:11he will especially if there's any more negative news that comes out about luther burden that's really the one i'm looking at
48:18so that yeah i i have loveland in some dynasty leagues as well and i just smile every time i see loveland
48:24or warren i mean obviously bowers but bowers you paid him i paid an iron price to get bowers right right but
48:31when i see loveland and warren i'm like ah this feels so good feels so i just got worn again i took
48:38warren i'm gonna tell you right now i'll tell you where i took him i i'm in a startup right now it's
48:45uh it's almost over finally uh but i i drafted warren in the third round uh a tight end super premium and
48:52loveland went probably five picks earlier and i'm like well i'll never get him on the way back and based on projections
48:58year in year out on player profiler the sky is gonna crush warren is gonna absolutely crush and there's such a gap
49:05there's such a gap to like tucker craft coming off an acl living on yak get out of here it's just it's
49:12not even close and with tyler warren he'll get creative touches like anytime you get a receiver or a tight end who
49:19will get some carries like some goal line or red zone carries that has such good inherent value that never really gets
49:26brought up with with warren as much as i think it should but especially with like daniel jones now they're probably gonna
49:32try to keep him a bit healthier so maybe warren does a little bit more in the red zone you know this
49:39year i'm not saying he's just gonna be like a wildcat quarterback or anything you know every time they get into the
49:46red zone but that has a value and you know when you look at mcbride by comparison he was a beneficiary of
49:53immense volume a ton of late you know end zone throws that just kind of happened to hit for the first time
49:59in his career i know that was always the the thing with mcbride is doesn't score touchdowns um it all kind of
50:06hit for him and this makes it sound like i oh you know who else doesn't score touchdowns you know who else
50:13doesn't score touchdowns the arizona cardinals dude yeah that's the problem yeah god it's just so damn yeah and like yeah and
50:20and to like for every situation like this you can say well he did it last year that's like looking at the
50:27outliers and saying that well because this happened it's it's almost like the derrick henry pass catching thing like hey derrick henry
50:33doesn't need pass catching so clearly pass catching is overrated at running back it's like no derrick henry like is an outlier
50:40jonathan taylor these guys are outliers we know over the larger sample receiving metrics receiving production is super valuable for running backs
50:47so like just the for anybody saying that this has happened you know already you can't copy and paste that and i
50:54think that there's just such a scenario where the the cardinals are just like in this transition phase you should think they're
51:01just like hey we we took you know jeremiah love third he's going to be our starting running back like that stuff
51:07concerns me because i don't know what i can trust from them and whenever that's the case i don't love it their
51:14veteran quarterback was holding out now they have a rookie who fell in the draft and might be pushing like it just
51:21doesn't seem like the type of environment that i'd want to invest in yeah that's a great point that you know what
51:28that's a oh my god i didn't think of this every time carson beck completes a pass in preseason everyone that has
51:34members of the cardinals passing game loses that's the last thing we want is carson beck back there the whole case is
51:41that at least we're going to get this one year of jacoby brissette before they make a move to figure out their
51:48quarterback he signed the the the prove it deal the bridge the classic bridge quarterback deal and then okay we have brissette
51:55back he's the one that fueled the the giant volume that we saw but if they decide because they're oh and seven
52:02just to throw beck out there because why not that's bad i don't care how good he looks in preseason he is
52:08a mid-round rookie quarterback who's not very mobile and they so they have a week 14 bye and that could just mean
52:15hey this ain't this isn't the season after the bye we're gonna see what carson beck has and like they have a
52:22pretty favorable playoff schedule they get the jets the saints and the raiders but like if it's a team just in let's
52:29see what we have for the future let's see if carson beck can do stuff like then you have trey mcbride who
52:36maybe has like uh maybe he is the tight end one through that like through week 14 but they're going to switch
52:42quarterbacks because you know they're it's just a lost season it's a risk that you have to kind of consider and i
52:49know like yes oh when's all the money made in best ball again yeah week 17 um so like maybe people were
52:56saying well the raiders are going to go through a quarterback switch too i mean just when the advancement starts in best
53:03ball is when we're likely to see carson beck yeah and i'm not going to like plant my flag and they're absolutely
53:09changing quarterbacks there it just would make a lot of sense that they they you know they got preset finally there just
53:16see what happens maybe they're a little bit lively early on they don't want to just hang it up and then it's
53:23like again it's just like that perfect sort of give them three three four games at the end of the year like
53:30three fantasy relevant games but then also week 18 which doesn't really matter for us but it just seems like it's it
53:37it could line up that way and meanwhile the bears or the colts could just be in the thick of the playoff
53:43race you know bears you know or honestly like you know division division crowns like at stake and they're going to try
53:50to just feature colson loveland tyler warren not saying that the cardinals would move away from train mcbride but like it's just
53:57something to think about and whenever you get these elite like draft capital players in terms of what it costs to acquire
54:04them it is worth kind of splitting hairs and thinking a little bit more um for for a guy who everything went
54:11right for him last year mcbride there are enough reasons to be concerned this year that it's just like uh let's see
54:17what we get maybe carson back doesn't throw to him as much i don't know so there yeah i'm with you with
54:24this whole kind of offensive situation can you explain this to me how is this guy who seems to be on ozempic
54:31233 pounds explain this riddle to me how is he 200 how does he how is he 233 i don't understand it
54:38the uh i i just don't i don't that is that that is a great mystery the guy needs to eat a
54:45sandwich or three now look at these numbers 12 interceptions two straight seasons on a good team georgia and miami it's not
54:51like he was on a bad team so he didn't have receivers he had great receivers and he struggled immensely his last
54:58year at georgia and still was was turning the ball over and for it's this is a recipe for just offensive implosion
55:05at the end of the year because of course they want to implode if you're the general manager you're happy to have
55:12this team lose with you get to get a look at this guy maybe he actually impresses maybe it helps you make
55:18a decision what you're going to do maybe you can trade him if you have a top pick and you're going for
55:25arch manning whatever like it's only good news for you because it helps you lock in your your top draft picks of
55:32course you're not going to push back against the in fact you're going to be pushing the coach to make the move
55:39and the coach is going to be in a difficult position you're going to be like it's either going to be an
55:46interim head coach by that time or whatever this is what this is one of the reasons i'm not i'm not i'm
55:52not drafting jacoby brissette as a late round quarterback my late round quarterback i mean i'm willing to go with some real
55:59fringy guys we talked about geno smith being my guy as the latest of late round quarterback i'm not doing it with
56:06brissette no no no no no yeah i wouldn't either and and like even if it's not even if they're not the
56:13worst team in the league but they don't they could play themselves out of a top three pick by winning too many
56:20games down the stretch like there are enough um there are enough quarterbacks in this upcoming class that they're not going to
56:26want to win games if they can avoid i'm not saying they're intentionally going to tank i would never like no no
56:33no team ever lost draft picks because the the top equity holder was paying the coach to lose games that never happened
56:40miami so i just i just think it's it's interesting um you just take a look at the offensive environment i think
56:47it's simple i'm trying like i've been trying to simplify my process with fantasy football and again when it comes to like
56:53these tiebreakers it's like sure why would i want to invest in that whenever i could invest in an offense where the
57:00head coach wants to be the 2013 broncos for like you know later on in the draft yeah and it would be
57:07great if if he if he accomplishes what he wants to accomplish with this offense and then but then then maybe they
57:14they go down in flames in the playoffs and he still gets fired i mean there's so many things that could happen
57:21dude anyway i'm so excited for the season to start i want to see how all these storylines play out i love
57:27that we've spent the vast majority by 90 of the show on tight ends because you've done a lot of tight end
57:34work i knew this because again i've subscribed to the late round newsletters of course i knew this that's why you saw
57:41a bunch of tight end questions 90 tight end if you look at the show sheet it's not 90 tight end but
57:48it's just what's interesting and you're so good at it but i we i i got to talk about some players i
57:55want to ask some questions about players that are not tight ends but along the same theme when i hear don tavian
58:01wicks is featured in eagles camp and i think about players the skill sets that i want for fantasy football that include
58:08explosive plays pass catching i'm drafting saquon barkley dude every time i see a highlight or a some kind of camp hype
58:15around a player like a don tavian wicks the my first thought is more barkley keep it simple because you don't think
58:22that they're going to throw it enough if wicks is the number two i just think that barkley is going to be
58:28such a focal point that we know it's not going to be 2024 that's not happening okay but also i think it's
58:35equally unlikely it's going to be 2025 if it's going to be somewhere in the middle i'm leaning a little more 2024
58:42because this team has told us we're going to be a running team we're going to be a running team we have
58:49tank bigsby we're rolling with tank bigsby and we're just letting aj brown go and we're not even trying to get kashon
58:56bootay back like no booty that booty was available they're good with don tavian wicks this just tells me man there's going
59:02to be a lot of goddard and a lot of barkley i like wicks no i like wicks wicks is great in
59:09basketball i'm saying i'm not please draft him in fact he keeps moving up on our rankings by all means draft wicks
59:16but the point you made earlier is is very valid in that we're certainly going to spend some time on sleepers and
59:23we love talking sleepers but not making mistakes and getting those first five picks right is critical and when barkley's there especially
59:30in the second round can't tough to get me off of man i just i just took him in a i i
59:36i have that startup and with the startup i talked about where i drafted tyler warren i have a unique situation where
59:43in that draft i drafted both saquon barkley and fernando mendoza you don't see these guys drafted in the same team very
59:50often in dynasty because typically one's a rebuilder out there in the open playing for 2027 to me i have two good
59:57quarterbacks i could i fernando mendoza was a luxury pick i'm trying to win this year and with fernando mendoza and barkley
60:03win in 2027 how about that hey you want to win it every year um but i think you can win it
60:10this year with saquon like you said it's not gonna be 2024 i don't think it's gonna be as bad as 2025
60:17which was basically just like the worst case outcome for this offense they want to run more under center um they want
60:24to kind of like i think jalen hurts probably gets a bit too much criticism but also isn't you know a game-changing
60:31arm talent i think like with davante smith is your number one getting at times we've seen him without aj brown getting
60:3730 of the targets i think that's that's a great baseline like hey we got a guy who can do things as
60:44a pass catcher but then eventually where else are the is the volume going to go dallas goddard not necessarily like a
60:5129 29 27 target share guy like long term he's more of the red zone getting all those flips like they were
60:58moving away a bit from the brotherly shove a little bit and the dallas goddard just walked his way into a bunch
61:05of touchdowns because they got a little creative if those go to saquon barkley you're looking at someone who still has such
61:11a high floor from a production standpoint and i'm with you like i think tank bigsby is good i think like the
61:18explosive rush rate numbers and in the like the yards after contact all really interesting but my point there was they didn't
61:25draft anybody yeah like they're they're not going to be like ah you know what saquon he's like a 50 snap rate
61:32guy like this is a timeshare that's not what you're gonna get so i'm with you like sometimes these like vets who
61:39aren't as interesting just sort of like from a name value standpoint or sorry from like a kind of an entertainment standpoint
61:45of like these younger guys like an ashton jent yeah the sex appeal gent everyone would agree genti at this point is
61:52a little more sex appeal yeah but like you look at the underlying data you look at which team is going to
61:59have more red zone trips like i think it's pretty clear who it's going to be especially because the offensive situation for
62:06philadelphia can't be quite as bad as it was last year so saquon barkley i've probably been a little bit too low
62:12on but again i keep mentioning all these basketball i'm just doing a ton of basketball drafts no you're doing great yeah
62:19i keep drafting toward the end of i'm getting like pick 11 12 so much i've been getting a lot of sake
62:26on barkley and i don't really feel bad about it because i do think that it's going to be a bit of
62:33a return to form for him um this year and you kind of have a situation where we're buying a little bit
62:40low on someone who has been a generational talent and still can be that i think um so i know people are
62:46a little bit out on him in terms of like he's not saquon of old okay but like we've seen older running
62:53backs still have it like derrick henry right last time i checked saquon barkley takes immaculate care of his body too yeah
63:00he's um he's definitely a specimen and i think that saquon to me if i get him at the one two turn
63:07or if he falls into the second like you know maybe historically i'd have been like no i need to get like
63:14a devon h hand over saquon because he's so much more you know explosive the offensive situations are just night and day
63:20between these and as we've talked about like simplifying things get the guy on the team who's actually gonna have a pulse
63:27down the stretch and not someone who needs to break 30 yard rushing touchdowns or 50 yard you know receiving touchdowns in
63:34order to to you know find the end zone so i would go saquon over a lot of those names um in
63:41the start of the second round what's your best case one two turn is it lamb barkley best case one two turn
63:47is probably lamb lamb barkley or i still like genti i think that that team could be a little bit more um
63:54lively than being a i think they're a bottom five team over the last 10 years and points per game last you
64:01know that the anecdote from that supports that what's that the uh the offensive coordinator last year for at least a period
64:08of time in name only was pete carroll's son and the rumor was that he didn't know what he was doing and
64:15that they had to have shadow meetings so he would come in and do the meeting and then he would leave and
64:21then they would do the real meeting like it was like the truman show like it was like the truman show we
64:28got to make sure the coach's son feels like he's part of the team and he's doing a good job and so
64:35that they had to like basically undo everything that he was doing and redo it which is part of the reason why
64:42the offensive line was so incompetent so dysfunctional so yes it's not a good offensive line but if you it was compounded
64:49by like the the the equivalent of matt patricia at offensive coordinator like sometimes there's just a coach can negatively impact a
64:55team easily where it takes real skill to help them in a positive way yeah so you know i have to make
65:02that decision a lot like barkley or genti around the turn i've been about 50 50 i get a lot of them
65:09together still um even in like in a ppr format but i'm really high on cd lamb it just goes back to
65:16the offensive expectations it's there you know dallas is in just a phenomenal spot week after week based on like implied team
65:22totals and game totals playing indoors so yeah ideal turn probably involves cd lamb but saquon barkley's right up there in that
65:29conversation too cd lamb number 12 in explosive plays last year and explosive play rating i should say on playerprofile.com but you
65:36gotta look at that injury history you gotta look back when i the last my dimension show we had was deepak chona
65:43we talked about injuries and players that are coming back from injuries and he reminded us about this high ankle sprain that
65:50cd lamb suffered last year and that really suppressed his production not only missing games but when he came back he was
65:56not himself for one or more months that's every high ankle sprain that's how it works so that yet yet another reason
66:03to be very bullish on cd lamb this year i'm bullish on both him and pickens i mean it's just that's these
66:10are the offenses i'm not sorry that these are the offenses it's a very boring approach i'm not trying to talk myself
66:17into bad offenses and i'm all in on the great offenses and cd lamb is one of those guys unfortunately gent he's
66:24not yet and so for me it's pretty clearly barkley uh but i also love i love a running back that could
66:30somehow earn an 80 opportunity share who doesn't love that i mean of course i love that of course uh like imagine
66:37cam scadaboo with an 80 opportunity share oh my god right but now we're hearing that okay he's not he's a co-starter
66:44with tyrone tracy tyrone tracy's the starter in the two-minute drill and knowing that i think you have to adjust but we
66:51were all way we were way out in front and i'm not gonna like dial it back very much we're still i
66:57want to make sure that his adp is going to fall a little bit and we're going to be in line with
67:04that but i want to be i always want to be at least like say 10 spots ahead of consensus on cam
67:11scadaboo because this is a team that has openly said we're a run first team and he has an all-purpose skill set
67:18and he won that job easily last year very quickly and was very productive and now he's coming into his second year
67:25and by all accounts he's healthy and they don't have a lot of weapons besides him and malik neighbors and malik neighbors
67:31is coming off a torn acl which is a more difficult recovery period than what he suffered uh with his leg injury
67:38so for that reason i'm staying firm i'm staying planted on cam scadaboo but i also love tyrone tracy and best ball
67:45in any format really love a good handcuff that's an all-purpose you know fast explosive guy who wants to be in the
67:52two-minute drill who doesn't like that he's just not scadaboo but if you've decided that you're going to be in on the
67:59running game of the giants then it's fine yeah scadaboo like he he pretty much put tracy in the rear view after
68:05week one last year um snap rate was 73 for tracy and week one 11 for scadaboo and then it went 51
68:1242 percent uh for scadaboo in week two and then he basically was the lead back uh from weeks two through seven
68:19i mean tracy missed some time but like he was averaging almost 100 scrimmage yards he had a target share of about
68:2615 percent which is you know phenomenal if you take all of that and just say if you kind of did like
68:32a blind test of what he was doing sort of as a featured back you'd be like yeah this guy i want
68:39to draft him you know round one round two um i'm not saying that that's going to be what happens like if
68:46again we can't copy and paste last year especially in a smaller sample but scadaboo had a really really really good role
68:53when he was featured and i like tyrone tracy i've been there but i think it's also telling that scadaboo is kind
69:00of the more involved receiver like pass catcher than tracy whose bread and butter should be that so i like both um
69:06but like scadaboo yeah and you mentioned about wanting to be about 10 spots higher than adp i mean scadaboo did see
69:13a surge in adp after the reports he was like kind of clearly the the running back one in the offense now
69:20you can maybe say that the two minute drill stuff sure um but that's valuable it's just also the co-starter yeah it's
69:27gonna be frustrating if he's not out there in the two minute drill but you're not really paying that for like second
69:34round price on on scadaboo for again a role again if you just look at like the numbers and how he was
69:40used it's better than you would expect based on where his adp is yeah if you like what we're doing like the
69:47show share it with a friend we're at pretty much 500 concurrent viewers right now let's we're at 490 let's jack it
69:54up to 500 this is this is going very well if you're listening to the podcast share the podcast send it to
70:01copy it to put in the text and be like hey friend that is in a fantasy league maybe not with you
70:08maybe with you regardless if you want to solve the tight end position in your fantasy draft listen to this show this
70:14but we'll also get more from not just not just tight but the easy summary is that this is probably the best
70:21show you'll listen to all off season to figure out the tight end position and then there's a lot of other bonus
70:28content here as well like for example at what point does this catastrophe that's playing out in the quarterback room in atlanta
70:35at what point does this affect bijon yeah so one of my recent uh newsletters uh for for the late round uh
70:41subscribers looked at you know bookmaker based win totals preseason and what the impact was for early round running backs and it
70:48was kind of a devon hn study like just to be clear but bijon is affected by that because the the falcons
70:55win total not super high six and a half at draft at drafting sportsbooks um with minus 140 odds on the over
71:02um but i had i had trouble with bijon being in this because it's like i think people are going to take
71:09that and be like yeah clearly this can't matter but i went back um to 2014 and looked at first round running
71:15backs drafted on a team with what i called an adjusted win total i adjusted for for 17 games basically um for
71:22the the pre-2021 um seasons and there have been only there were six in my database so again top 12 overall picks
71:29on bad offenses at saquon barkley 2019 christian mccaffrey uh 2022 when he changed teams david johnson twice 2018 2019 la sean
71:36mccoy 2017 and ashton genti last year only two of them if you if you look at adp historically you can scale
71:43that you can scale adp and say if you're the first overall pick and you're running back you're projected to score x
71:49points just historically so when you compare actual performance to that baseline so it's going to slide down as you get later
71:56in the draft um if when you compare those six backs to adp expectation only two of them uh barkley and mccaffrey
72:03who were top three overall picks that year that were cited only two of them outperformed adp expectations to any degree barkley
72:10did so by 0.1 points and mccaffrey changed teams barkley was on a 4 and 12 giants team he was like basically
72:16the top pick um and the the giants team win total was six if you look at later on say seven eight
72:23nine ten these back back of the first half or back of the first round picks those guys all basically failed to
72:30sort of live up to the hype so b john's in that bucket technically but he's also one of the top three
72:37i mean he's the top two pick so like he kind of fits that mccaffrey did it you know barkley was fine
72:44in 2019 but it's a bit of an uphill climb for him to like have a phenomenal season and when you compare
72:50him to jameer gibbs like some people you know prefer b john to gibbs i don't i think it's just such easy
72:57process to go gibbs and say this guy's gonna score more touchdowns because his offense is better oh my god sportsbook props
73:04are crazy different um for the touchdown odds and i know b john's like a generational talent so i'm not saying like
73:11look barkley was able to do it mccaffrey kind of a caveat there like he can do it but it's going back
73:18to simplifying things looking at offensive expectations and then yeah like i'm not a huge believer i'm sure there probably aren't too
73:24many in tua or michael pennix at this point and what's interesting is like this team has three really sort of high
73:31profile fantasy assets in b john drake london and in kyle pitts like kyle pitts is one of those borderline like tier
73:38i guess you'd call it a tier three tight end just like to simplify it outside the top five but one of
73:45those guys who like people think could make the jump or is right there and it's like i don't know how you're
73:51excited about this offense tommy reese calling plays he did that last year in the back half of the season um with
73:58the browns the results weren't great um they were bottom three in epa per play from week 10 onward uh slightly worse
74:05than they were in the first half of the season their pass rate over expectation fell it was already low at minus
74:123.6 went down to minus 4.2 so like i get it like b john's gonna have phenomenal market shares it's just the
74:19odds that he is like the home run you had to have this guy he was the you know by far the
74:25rb1 best player in fantasy he's got to overperform i mean either the falcons have to overperform drastically their offensive expectations which
74:32are pretty low um all things considered or he's just gotta like do it himself and give me gibbs i wish mcafree
74:39were like healthier um but like if you get if you guaranteed me like 15 16 games for mcafree it's like he's
74:46gonna be a better pick than b john probably so i'm like i'm worried about this offense in terms of getting maximum
74:53value out of all three of those guys so it's a little bit better like it's a better situation than the cardinals
74:59don't get me wrong um i'm not like out on b john i'm still taking him second overall more often than not
75:06i'm considering like a jamar chase or a puka i'm considering puka i think the gap between gibbs and b john is
75:13very large and i actually pulled drafting sportsbook odds uh props if you look at the if you look at the full
75:20stat line there aren't there aren't a ton of running backs who have full stat lines but three of them do gibbs
75:26b john and mcafree and people you can have issues with using sportsbook props to project fantasy sort of a median outcome
75:33i get it but based on those there's a the gap is closer between b john and mcafree than from gibbs to
75:40b john so like to me gibbs is the clear best pick in fantasy football right now at 101 by a mile
75:47and then you put that into context with b john it's like i again he would be my 102 more often than
75:54not but i don't feel as good as i want to based on everything i've looked at it's interesting we've had years
76:00where there was talk about the unfairness of the 101 i don't hear that this year there should be there should be
76:07there the advantage you have of getting the 101 in your fantasy draft and getting jameer gibbs is gigantic and it's not
76:14necessarily the median projection you're going to say well the projections are similar well yeah sure but the best case outcome for
76:21gibbs is 30 fantasy points a game b john can't sniff that right b john's going to get there on volume and
76:28that's it's perfectly fine and and and that's how that sausage is made he's going to get more touches than than jameer
76:34gibbs but if gibbs has the ceiling to break fantasy and b john simply doesn't have that and that has nothing to
76:41do with baseline projections just just like the the player's talent in the context of their team and it's it's it's very
76:48rare even the years when christian mccaffrey was putting up close to 30 points per game or even ladenian tomlinson he wasn't
76:55in this kind of perfect position where you had the vacated touches of david montgomery you've got the the degradation of the
77:02defense in detroit you've got the offensive line you've got the stability of all the offensive pieces from year to year the
77:08only piece that's missing is the one piece that you would want to remove if you were jameer gibbs think about it
77:15yeah like if you look at again just to go back to sports book numbers just an easy baseline it's out there
77:22for everybody and project like actual projected points there's not a lot of that out there like projected fantasy points yes but
77:29like projected points per game you don't really get a lot of those sources but if you take detroit's implied team total
77:35there's they're going to be the second best offense in football they're a half point per game behind the rams but if
77:42you look at like their individual games they're actually potentially a little bit better or equal to um the rams they have
77:4910 games on the slate of with a total of 48 and a half points or greater they've got 11 games where
77:56their implied team total like so their offensive expectations to score about you know 26 points um they've they've got 11 of
78:03those and we know they play indoors um it like everything just says process wise gibbs is the 101 and what you
78:09mentioned about like kind of the cheat code i think what also goes along with having the 101 is that two guys
78:16are going to fall because they're it's sort of flattens out after like the top five and then maybe again after like
78:23the top 14 or so depending on if like how strong your takes are on like these sort of the second tier
78:30i see where you're going with this toward the end of the first round then it's a huge flat tier and you're
78:37going to get two more of those guys who have enough upside to outperform the guys are getting 12th and 13th so
78:43that i think gibbs himself is phenomenal but i've had enough drafts that i've done in the other basketball but it's not
78:50like it's such a you know different format you feel so good with who's there at you know 212 and in 301
78:57that you feel like you're off to a great start like you have to kind of screw it up and pick like
79:04reach for players or you know do something that you don't feel good about because there's going to be guys there that
79:10you can feel good with so that to me in addition to gibbs himself being set up for success you have such
79:17a good two three turn available to you this year that you don't always have historically you get brock bowers there if
79:24yeah like if bowers slides then you could be looking at it's conceivable yeah then you then you could have a running
79:31back who is sort of christian mccaffrey yeah you know a tight end who's like a travis kelsey and then from there
79:38you know it's unfair the things you could do are unfair you're doing your best on the other side if you're at
79:44the one two turn lamb barkley's as good as you can do and to compete and you're going to compete with those
79:51guys sure but you're going to be at a disadvantage just the way fantasy works and by the way got the jameer
79:58gibbs profile up there from the world famous draft kit on player profile or subscribe to it and you can see in
80:05the top right analyst cheat sheet my personal cheat sheet is up there now for you to download for your drafts so
80:12i just love i love talking star play let's let's do this so we talk about gibbs gibbs gibbs and bijon which
80:18i've never spent this much time talking about them and i love it so much i feel so good it's like it's
80:25mid-august we're allowed to do it um but we should talk about this jaguars backfield i'm in on the jaguars passing game
80:32more than the backfield tootin and rodriguez are co-starters just want to put that out there to you yeah i think that
80:39basial tootin is a really interesting prospect with some potential but this is where the coaching comes into play if he's not
80:45going to be a featured back we have to listen to that and you can't just assume that he's going to play
80:5285 of the snaps and you can't assume that he's going to have a great you know goal line role if that's
80:59not what's going to happen and if that's the case he looks maybe more like you know the the travis a chan
81:06role from last year like a 60 65 snap rate guy decent target share like maybe 10 which is where a chan
81:13was last year um but like an iffy red zone role and not only an iffy red zone role in terms of
81:19of rushing because you can look at rushing red zone share like you also have to look at the overall red zone
81:26share the opportunity share because they have guys that they can throw the ball to talk about brenton strange maybe they get
81:33tanner cozy all some some goal line looks just oh stop it don't don't i know don't i have some orphans with
81:40in tight end premium where i have nothing where i'm actually gonna i might have to roll out cause y'all like maybe
81:47maybe that's maybe that's how it goes but i think that the ceiling is being capped already for basial tootin and that's
81:53a bit unfortunate i do think that like hey jet sweep to travis hunter yeah and they should do stuff like that
82:00yeah but like from a redraft standpoint if basial tootin's my rb2 because i went you know super receiver heavy early on
82:07um like it's fine that's what you meant fine fine like chris rodriguez and best ball i feel like is an easier
82:14uh easier value just because he goes so much later but i think that the chance for for basial tootin to be
82:20just like a game changer it doesn't seem in the cards right now um so where are you with these guys i
82:27i i prefer if i'm gonna be speculating this is a speculative play very speculative because i'm going david montgomery every time
82:34okay so just put that off to the side if i didn't have david montgomery available to me in that zone of
82:41drafts and typically do right typically you do and i had to take a running back and had had to maximize upside
82:48i'm going jitterian price jitterian price i'm gonna go with what's in the box he's a little bit more what's in the
82:54box where we kind of know what tootin is at this point you have really no idea what you're getting in jitterian
83:01price because we didn't see enough of him in college but they certainly saw enough of him to draft him in the
83:08first round as opposed to the fourth round and we've got some answers already that he is a quality pass catcher from
83:15what we've seen in camp and all the reports from camp that's what i've been looking for is he catching passes and
83:22sure enough he is catching passes some spectacular catches actually which is what you love to see we know he's like tevin
83:28coleman between the tackles in a good way but is he a better receiver than tevin coleman the answer is absolutely yes
83:35and that's a team that wants to run the ball that's a team that wants to basically just beat their opponent into
83:42submission and they drafted jitterian price to be the featured guy you don't draft a running back at the end of the
83:49first round to not be the featured guy even clyde erwin salair was drafted to be the featured guy he wasn't good
83:56enough but we also had plenty of chances to see what clyde erwin salair was in college and he was basically a
84:02volume check down catcher for joe burrow and somehow tricked everybody jerry and price wasn't playing with joe burrow jerry and price
84:09wasn't playing and he wasn't playing for the best possible reason that he was behind an elite player and the interesting thing
84:16is both ashton jenty's backup and jeremiah love's backup are the one two in seattle how funny is that the college backups
84:23have found a second life with the world champions helani has been named the starter and i agree with it please by
84:29all means let him be the starter they're the super bowl champs you might say well you're you just complained earlier that
84:36coaches aren't optimizing their talent and they're punishing players based on irrational preferences no i agree if you're gonna have a big
84:43part of what seattle did last year was their culture and if they want to reward george helani for being you know
84:50sort of a the quintessential seahawk and make him the starter week one and make the rookie running back earn it to
84:57be the starter week two who cares they're gonna win the game why do you care well it's the patriots hold on
85:03my daughter just my daughter just got so mad sorry sorry i didn't mean they're playing the patriots we've got that's very
85:10much up in the air one game from a running back doesn't matter in terms of coaching decisions who you're starting and
85:17they're gonna play jadarian price plenty in week one anyway so i i think helani is very interesting he has an all-purpose
85:24skill set and he's technically the starter it's the least expensive named starter on a super bowl champion run first team in
85:31the history of fantasy football which is a very i understand is a very specific award to give a player or achievement
85:37but for me like i'll just draft them both i'll just draft them both i mean i'm not handcuffing i don't do
85:44that yeah but in in dynasty uh i have i have teams with both and certainly it's similar to what we talked
85:51about earlier with with the with the giants hey if i if i get scatterboo fantastic if i end up with tracy
85:58good if i end up with jerry and price probably not it's pretty expensive but it's nice to have him but i'd
86:04like to also get some helani the way the season can break where zach charbonnet is coming back and then he pulls
86:11a hamstring you've only seen that every time right and then jadarian price fumbles maybe multiple times and see a team like
86:18seattle they can't have that because you've got all these guys rowing together and if the rookie is gonna fumble it away
86:25and all the work they did to get the team in position to win and then the rookie fumbles it away that's
86:32not gonna that's not gonna do i think tootin would have much would have a much longer leash if he fumbles than
86:38than jadarian price would i mean so there's scenarios where helani is quite valuable yeah and like there were interesting quotes last
86:45year where they were talking about their running back room and like george helani was always thrown into like hey we like
86:52our running back room with you know walker charbonnet helani it's like really like it doesn't seem like you guys love george
86:59helani but he always seemed to be brought up team captain yeah yeah yeah and it's like okay so yeah but i
87:06think i think most running backs can have a pulse in the right environment whether they are elite talents or not it's
87:12kind of how the running back position can work um so i again i have a lot of helani already price there
87:19it's like an upside bet i don't know how much i'm gonna get there in season long it feels like it could
87:26be a hard one to get right week to week especially if zach charbonnet who has some pretty positive buzz about when
87:33he can return and they clearly like him enough so it's a little bit of a do you think there's too many
87:39mouths to feed here for for you to feel great with in week one to know who to play are you just
87:46like i'm gonna play helani and hope that he's the guy in redraft i'm playing helani in week one yeah i'm definitely
87:53playing okay i'm just letting everybody know he's in my lineup like i i just looked at the lineup i saw helani
88:00in it i was just on a random team and helani's in the starting lineup i'm playing helani this year guys uh
88:07last time i checked kenneth walker won the super bowl mvp when he played the patriots so i'm not saying he's kenneth
88:13walker but he is the starting running back like and there there's there's only so much that the talent profile can do
88:20uh the running back is much more situational much more team dependent much more supporting cast dependent than other positions which is
88:27again this is the tale as old as time this is the whole case for zero rb we don't need to get
88:34into that today we're we're we're far enough along talking about late round quarterback uh theory we don't need to go we
88:41don't need to go there uh but i will get you out of here i've kept you way too long thank you
88:47for being so generous uh this has been unbelievable i really enjoyed this most of the things we agree on we did
88:54not talk about we did i'll admit we talked about nico and we talked about trey mcbride that was it a lot
89:01of these other guys we did not talk about this i was like oh okay uh yeah we're on the same page
89:08with that we didn't talk about tootin we didn't talk about him okay so there's a there's some some young play we
89:14need to talk about rookies getting hype we gotta talk about that how can we do a podcast without we can't talk
89:21gotta talk about can't just talk about you guys talked about gibbs and bijon and you didn't mention cyrus allen or what
89:28are you doing these guys even know ball they don't know cyrus allen yeah what are you got this with you guys
89:35are you guys are not what i thought this is late round and player profiler come on okay so we got three
89:42rookies getting massive camp hype truly massive jacoby lane caleb douglas and of course cyrus allen which of those if you had
89:48to pick one who you think is for real who do i think is for real i know that's a very cliche
89:55podcast statement who do you think is the most worthy of being drafted in all formats if you have one over the
90:02other in best ball that would be interesting but just you know i i can tell you i can tell you we
90:09are way out ahead on cyrus allen we are at market on caleb douglas and we're not there yet on jacoby lane
90:16let me tell you where we are i mean then for me if that's the question it's gonna be cyrus allen so
90:22when we talk about coaching like rishi rice is a great fantasy receiver largely due to coaching because they just want to
90:29get him the ball like we can talk about his talent or whatever but like clearly they want to feature him when
90:36he's on the field and healthy cyrus allen to me of the three has the path to being the top receiving option
90:43like rice doesn't look great i'm not a huge like watch you know a 10 second clip and and make a declarative
90:50statement on like this guy's not healthy or whatever malik neighbors looks better than than rice does right now yes yes that's
90:56very true um like i think xavier xavier worthy's fine but they've never made him a big target earner like he just
91:03hasn't been there travis kelsey's getting older so like of the three i mean i guess technically caleb douglas hasn't quote-unquote easier
91:10time of being the the top pass catcher just because there's nobody else there who really has a firm grasp on it
91:17you notice the two receivers that we're not high on are on teams with russian quarterbacks yeah um but for me like
91:23cyrus allen has a path to being like the the sort of first or second receiving option in a t on a
91:30team that and the chiefs have fallen off but like the offensive expectations for the chiefs way way way better than for
91:37the dolphins what is even if caleb douglas is the guy for the dolphins what does that really look like is it
91:44one of these situations where the the top target earner on this team is at 18 18 target share because there's five
91:51or six guys just on a per game basis at like 12 to you know eight eight to 18 percent something like
91:57we see that sometimes whenever teams don't have phenomenal go-to options that's a possibility being the top option for a team doesn't
92:04necessarily mean you're you're a phenomenal asset cyrus allen at least with the buzz here feels like he could be scripted a
92:11role and this is again it kind of comes full circle here with the coaching like was cyrus allen a first round
92:18pick no do i believe that this coaching staff could turn him into something more than he is based on how they
92:25use him yes now i like jacoby lane i think there's a chance just to to talk about him real quick i
92:31think there's a chance that look zay flowers is the top target getter but not the top red zone guy i mean
92:38they had like an okay red zone share um historically but it was similar to like rashad bateman's last year and even
92:45though zay had like a 29 target share and bateman was like 11 they had similar red zone usage and even money
92:52targets so like whenever you're actually inside the 10 or in the end zone when you're targeted kind of similar numbers there
92:58there's a chance that jacoby lane who has sort of a bit of a touchdown score profile at least for one year
93:05in college maybe he's like the you know the the red zone threat for a team that you know with an offense
93:12that we like so i think there's an easier path for caleb douglas than jacoby lane to get targets but if i'm
93:19picking them if i'm ranking them it's still going to be alan lane douglas just because i think that if lane is
93:26the wide receiver two for great offense that probably still means more than caleb douglas being the wide receiver one for miami
93:32well miami could easily finish last in pass attempts this year yeah that's a big problem i mean there's just the pies
93:39much smaller it's not like it's good it's like baltimore's gonna throw the ball around the yard either but there at least
93:46that offense is going to be functional and going to be in the red zone more where it what are you really
93:53gaining caleb douglas to me he's a great dynasty guy where he could ascend this year and be the de facto number
94:00one that he's competing for the number one job with a rookie next year it could be a very very could be
94:06a second round rookie could be a very good rookie but still he's gonna have a he's gonna be in a great
94:13position next year yeah he's great he's a 20 27 play but as long as it's malik willis i like malik willis
94:20and i like a chain right like if there's one running back who's on a bad team that you can tell a
94:27story about it's the efficiency that a champ brings to the table uh i mean it's just it's next level so i'm
94:33i'm perfectly fine taking the guy that's just going to get all the targets out of the backfield break big plays that's
94:40the offense what are they going to do it's going to be willis h and willis h and then a little bit
94:47of dulcet and a little bit of malik washington and then caleb douglas will be in there and caleb douglas is gonna
94:54have some plays listen there's gonna he's gonna be a waiver wire guy one week week four something caleb douglas gonna be
95:01a top of waiver what you know it but that doesn't mean you have to fucking draft him it's gonna be after
95:07a breakout game and i've looked at this historically too it's like ah you draft you pick them up after his big
95:14game and like doesn't always lead to more so then you miss the big game you can and then you can look
95:21back you know the worst thing that happens the worst is when you pick him up instead of a running back there
95:28was an injury and then the running back he was questionable that he was you know behind and then let's say it's
95:35taj brooks and chase brown heaven forbid yeah has some lower body injury but when waivers run we're not sure how serious
95:41it is and then but caleb douglas man he had 110 yards and a touchdown you stack rank caleb douglas ahead of
95:48taj brooks and then sunday rolls around you're like she yep yeah it's waiver wire receivers are i mean honestly too waiver
95:55wire running backs can be a bit overstated because we're often picking them up after they have breakout games it's different if
96:02there's a clear injury but like the chasing these waiver wire receivers historically very difficult and it yeah it feels like i
96:08kind of had like 110 and one on like six targets in my brain for like caleb douglas it's like hey man
96:15he's like the only receiver who did something this past week who's on waivers i need a receiver i'm gonna pick them
96:22up you never start them maybe you drop someone like uh like you you mentioned picking him up instead of a running
96:29back maybe you drop a running back he's not seen a lot of time oh that's that's that's some in some ways
96:36that's even worse it could just be a tank bigs be a tyrone tracy i was thinking tracy because we talked about
96:42him yeah yeah and you're letting him go because you're like listen this is all about scatterboot next thing you know scatterboot
96:49picks up an injury like no oh but i have caleb yeah it feels like it feels like each of the dolphins
96:56receivers is going to go through that at some point this year yes what have i done all right all right okay
97:03these three receivers are i mean struggling struggling i mean they are in the ice chest right now germy bernard a name
97:10i just can't quite deal with i just i've had like three or four tweets about his name being germy and i've
97:16none of them have been funny and so i've just you know deleted them before i posted them but it's just such
97:23a dumb name who names i mean this parent should be ashamed themselves germy do you know what a germ is like
97:30what are you even doing to this kid germy bernard omar cooper jr that's a cool name so yeah you got you
97:37got i mean you got the battle of the names here omar cooper jr jeremy bernard even the way your lips move
97:43to say that the name is so mealy mouth like drew me bernard and then elijah sarratt right that's a good name
97:50too those are both great names so his name just mixed with their names it's just it's unfortunate he's just he's such
97:57a beta uh and now he's he's even roman wilson's beta so i don't know what's happening with these guys but sarratt's
98:04dead because he's on the ravens zay flowers has signed an extension and is really good and jacoby lane is off to
98:11the races so it's possible that elijah sarratt's dead i don't want to i know i'm poisoning the well i haven't even
98:17asked the question yet and i'm already giving you the answer so i apologize for that classic host uh mistake uh just
98:24a ego maniacal host behavior so we have jeremy bernard omar cooper jr elijah sarratt which of these guys do you think
98:31is sort of the most likely to make an impact this year if i had to answer it that way i would
98:38say omar cooper jr due to the draft capital um and the fact that the team could be better than we think
98:45in terms of the baseline oh i like this analysis but and it's not that i don't think the ravens are going
98:51to be good it's that sarratt is clearly like the other rookie receiver on the team at this point like he's not
98:58jacoby lane so he's got to overcome that we're shot bateman still there like mark andrews still has a you know still
99:05has a pulse but it's all about zay flowers at the top did you see the news on jacoby lane by the
99:12way that they dropped on player profile did you see this look at this look at this news this is a with
99:19a straight face with a straight face they're saying jacoby lane is having the best camp in the history of the ravens
99:25franchise that's quite the statement that's a statement i've never heard a statement like that that's some true hyperbole that also makes
99:32me think he's probably pretty good and and like i said there's a chance like he's a red zone kind of receiver
99:39he might not have some of the the big plays that we would want from any any given receiver but like if
99:46zay's your wide receiver one and he's never really been a huge touchdown guy there's no reason that you know jacoby lane
99:52can't be very relevant because he's kind of getting the red zone and the end zone looks so i think that's relevant
99:59no no i like can we just stop there okay this this says so much about these three receivers that we talked
100:06about them for 30 seconds and pivoted back to jacoby lane yeah it's true it's true but like when when aaron rogers
100:13comes out and says uh that jeremy bernard needs like learning the offense quote inside and out that probably to me is
100:20like he doesn't know the offense well enough maybe it's like look man we're gonna lean on him and he needs like
100:26he needs to know his offense inside and out it's not really how i took it it doesn't seem like that's the
100:33case so if and if there's one quarterback we talk about coaching and the impact if there's a quarterback who i'm like
100:40if he doesn't trust this guy even if he's running routes he's just getting iced out like it's going to be aaron
100:47rogers so that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for me uh with bernard but i do think again to go back
100:54and answer your question omar cooper jr at least has a path to look they invested capital in him um 30th overall
101:00i like ad mitchell i think he's been a catchable target regression candidate for years now i think he's better than perception
101:07probably just because he hasn't had a lot of catch but it could also be his archetype so i at least think
101:14that omar cooper has if i'm betting on one of them this year it's easily cooper um but yeah it's i thought
101:21surat could go earlier in the draft he didn't he's got a lot of ground to make up and this offense just
101:27i know it's a different looking offense um you know different different coordinator and everything but they've never really supported multiple um
101:34you know pass catchers and yeah ad mitchell as you have here pulled up like he's good it's a profile you can
101:41always bet on he's good he's good and they have him playing the role he was born to play and he's ready
101:48to play that role and he's going to play it at a high level this is again very bullish on the jets
101:55i'm glad that you're coming around on the jets did you notice the the one thing that the two of those receivers
102:01had in comment on that list by the way why they were overrated what's that they benefited greatly from the throwing of
102:08one fernando mendoza okay this is one of one of the great tricks that gets played and and you saw with omar
102:15cooper even scouts will fall for it they will fall for it these guys that put up in huge numbers they just
102:22can't they can't square the circle and they just push the button on him they're like he must be he can't be
102:29he can't be bad look at the numbers and it's like dude i think this may say a little bit more about
102:35the starting quarterback soon to be starting quarterback in las vegas when i saw surat getting buried and omar cooper getting buried
102:42the first neuron to fire in my head is oh oh fernando mendoza must be good that was that that's exactly where
102:49my head went yeah there's a very good chance he's very good very good and that's i mentioned like the carson back
102:56week 14 thing i don't i don't really know how long it's going to take for mendoza to start doesn't seem like
103:02kirk cousins is going to be there for for a while in the starting role could even be week one who knows
103:09dude that would be so cool it would be it would be sick because again like this team was so bad last
103:16year in terms of just their overall offense that it can only go up from there and if mendoza like you know
103:23rookie quarterbacks themselves historically don't do a ton to elevate the offense but if mendoza is great it really only matters for
103:30two guys and so it's like can these two guys be good with ashton genti and brock bowers like the receivers i
103:36think mendoza would have to be sort of generational like all-time rookie season to sort of get anything out of the receivers
103:43because there's not a lot of positive buzz for the receiver room i like michael mayer just fine but i don't think
103:50he's going to turn into like hey this this team has two startable tight ends in fantasy one of whom is like
103:57an alpha sort of tight end so it's like can he can he bring enough to the table for genti and bowers
104:04to pay off like their their high-end draft capital and that's like like you said yeah maybe there are clues here that
104:10that he is it's just going to depend on the coaching and do they try to slow play him and we get
104:17kirk cousins just going out there and they're scoring 13 points a game maybe that's the case and we can't control that
104:24that is a little bit of a risk but i don't know if it's going to take forever for mendoza to start
104:31and if he starts early yeah you could say whatever about the development but for us for for 2026 i think that
104:37would be very very helpful drafting omar cooper over sadiq in dynasty these rookie drafts i see it all the time and
104:44it's a mistake every time i see it i'm like don't why you picked the wrong jet don't do it i mean
104:51i get you out of here thanks again where do people find you on social media i am at gadula 13 gd
104:58ula one three and you can find everything i do at lateround.com check out the late round draft guys it's updated every
105:05friday jj's dropping uh fresh rankings and everything but yeah um it was a pleasure thanks for having me yeah buddy give
105:11us a bold prediction bold prediction um so i i was on like the george pickens outscores cd lamb train for for
105:18a bit i still think that's that's viable but i'll make one a little more tight end centric because we we talked
105:25so much about tight ends and i can go as bold as i want here but i'm gonna say not only is
105:32colston loveland this year's tight end one i'm gonna say he averages at least 18 ppr points per game giving us like
105:39a travis kelsey or trey mcbride kind of season where he's like a real game changer uh this offense wants to be
105:45historic colston loveland is a historic tight end prospect i love luther burden i think roma dunze is better than people give
105:52him credit for but there's no reason he can't be the top pass catcher in this offense and have just a historic
105:59tight end season i think roma dunze is better than people give him credit for but there's no reason he can't be
106:06the top pass catcher in this offense and have just a historic tight end season the gula gula to gula just gula
106:13no good doula good doula i got it right so i got it right i am the worst i always assume every
106:19time i'm gonna get the name wrong and then so what ends up happening is i'm like i think i know how
106:26to pronounce his name and then i see the light come on for the show and i'm like wait how do you
106:33pronounce his name again and i'm like no don't panic and then i panic it happens to me every time i always
106:40panic and it because it's like in the pre-show am i gonna ask you how to pronounce your name like that's that
106:46seems so lame and then i end up getting up in the air without a net and fucking it up so now
106:53i feel great i feel great that i got it right for once in my life this this is an omen this
107:00is an omen this is gonna be a great show that's actually perfect that is the perfect layout right there of johnny
107:07tuma and i live and muted with my condescending eyebrow raise as he's trying to hype up every coach that's ever done
107:14anything for one season and then the public comes in comes roaring in saying more than 30 i thought that i was
107:20balancing he's a he's a genius he's a genius it's it's it's for sure there's no way they're gonna regret degula borkinger
107:27i'm on fire yo you know who else doesn't score touchdowns you know who else doesn't score touchdowns the arizona cardinals dude
107:34yes oh these guys even know ball they don't know saris allen yeah no no team ever lost draft picks because the
107:41the top equity holder was paying the coach to lose games that never happened miami because you're like listen this is all
107:48about scataboo next thing you know scataboo picks up an injury like no oh but i have caleb douglas who knows