Davis Mattek - Grinding the Variance: Week 8 NFL Picks
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
51 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Nov 1, 2026
Published
Sun, November 1, 2026
22
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Michael WilsonAmon-Ra St. BrownAntonio WilliamsBaker MayfieldBijan RobinsonBreshad PerrimanChase BrownChris RodriguezD'Andre SwiftGarrett WilsonJa'Marr ChaseJared GoffJeremiyah LoveKenneth Walker III
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveMatchup4:11
St. Brown is one of the best blitz-beating wide receivers in the league, complementing Goff's elite blitz metrics against the Vikings' 71% blitz rate.
Insight pageAntonio Williams
PositiveRole28:39
With Terry McLaurin going down, Williams is positioned for more targets and snaps. Dan Quinn and David Blau have been vocal about getting him more involved. He has run over 40% of his routes in the slot, which has increased to 56% in the last two weeks. McLaurin was playing around 20% of his snaps in the slot. The source likes attacking the slot angle where Cooper the Jeans is having a down year; Seedy Cook exploited this matchup last week. Williams is projected for 3.5 receptions with plus money odds.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeProjection10:38
Mayfield is second-worst in EPA per play (only Justin Herbert is worse), and is playing with a special cast on his hand limiting full efficacy. The Panthers game last week was not indicative of true performance because Bryce Young played like a high school quarterback with only 11 dropbacks.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveProjection30:01
The source projects Bijon Robinson will break out after two down weeks, citing the Bye Leone model and noting 'they're not going to keep a good man down three weeks in a row.' The source expects Robinson to score a touchdown this week.
Insight pageBreshad Perriman
PositiveProjection25:46
Perriman is projected for 14.8 PPR points against the Colts, nearly two points ahead of projection. The source has him mentally modeled for approximately 47 fantasy points in this game and expects him to get around 22 rushes. Usage was trending very well for him; he had a great fantasy game in the final game before the bye week. The source describes him as a league winner down the stretch, noting he was taken in the middle of the fifth round.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveProjection23:33
The source projects a 'pretty big Chase Brown explosion game' coming in the coming weeks, citing Bengals HC Zach Taylor's statement that 'we are counting on chase Brown to have a big game this week,' combined with Brown being on the Bye Leone model (which is crushing this year). The source notes his usage has been better than his numbers suggest, and he had a great scoring opportunity last week that was negated by a stoppage of play. The source is comfortable with two-touchdown or 100+ receiving yards projections.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeRole25:23
Grant Udinski (offensive coordinator) claims the backs have more ability in the pass game than they've been able to showcase, but the source dismisses this as a lie regarding Rodriguez Jr., stating he has no ability in the pass game. Rodriguez Jr. had a hot hand in the final game before the bye week but is not expected to be the plan going forward.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
NegativeValue32:33
The source notes D'Andre Swift is priced at 1.79X multiplier for a touchdown on Monday night, presenting it as a comparison point to Luther Burks' higher multiplier.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveUsage20:33
Coaches Reich and Glenn have been vocal for two weeks about getting Wilson the ball quickly and more often. This week they are specifically pushing to get him involved early with targets in the first quarter. Mike Nuggets quotes show coaches calling out first play of the game coverages on Wilson and regretting not throwing him the ball in late red zone plays. The source expects a huge attempt to get him the ball this week.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveBreakout23:51
Chase is positioned for a breakout game this week post-bye. The source believes Chase and Garrett Wilson have both been underutilized, with offensive coordinators and quarterbacks frustrated that Amari Cooper has been getting more targets. This is described as an absolute smash spot; Chase is cheap this week and expected to come in at 30% ownership on DraftKings/FanDuel. The source predicts a 152-yard game.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveMatchup0:38
Goff is elite against the blitz with the best passer rating in the league against the blitz; .32 EPA per play against the blitz; 53 completions on 69 attempts, 7 touchdowns, no interceptions. The Lions' paint-by-numbers offense mitigates the Vikings' 71% blitz rate because Goff's decision is made before the snap; he knows exactly where the ball is going. This setup favors Goff despite facing Brian Flores' elite defense.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveBreakout15:32
Love is positioned for a breakout game against the Cowboys if Tyler Algier does not play. He was limited in practice but appeared mobile at a charity event in Phoenix. The Cardinals deliberately rotate receivers to keep them fresh, suggesting hyper-segmented running back roles where Love (third overall pick) will have a larger backfield share than Algier. ADP of 36 with 11.5 PPR projection and 1.5% projected ownership makes him a scroll-down value play. Game total of 54 suggests high scoring.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveProjection27:39
The source projects Kenneth Walker will have a strong game against Denver, citing a 1.67X multiplier (minus-180 odds) for anytime touchdown. The source expects the Chiefs to lean heavily on the run game against Bo Nix, projecting Walker to receive 28 carries. The source references Walker's 37-fantasy-point performance in the reverse matchup in Week 1 and notes the Chiefs will likely try to run downhill. The source acknowledges Walker's goal-line struggles but attributes this to his bouncy running style rather than inability.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection2:38
Murray is dead last amongst all NFL quarterbacks in success rate, worse than Deshaun Watson, worse than Justin Herbert, worse than Cam Ward. The Vikings are undefeated but rank 30th in EPA per play and 25th in EPA per drop back, indicating offensive dysfunction despite the record.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
PositiveProjection10:13
Penix is 10th in the NFL in adjusted EPA per play, legitimately good despite career narrative of lowlights. Compared to Baker Mayfield, Penix is significantly more efficient; Mayfield is second-worst in EPA per play behind only Justin Herbert.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeRole18:28
Matt LaFleur says Wilson's reduced snaps reflect a deliberate receiver rotation to keep him fresh, indicating the Cardinals are managing his workload across multiple receivers rather than concentrating targets.
Insight pagePositiveProjection25:54
The source projects Michael Wilson will bounce back this week against a depleted Cowboys defense, citing he is on the Bye Leone model with positive coach speak, a 55-game total, and a 4.6X multiplier for touchdown. The source notes uncertainty about whether Joey Porter will line up against him due to Kendrick Moore potentially playing the X position. The source calls it a 'smash smash touchdown bet' and notes his receptions and expected yards props have not moved much despite recent regression, suggesting Vegas sees upside.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeBust30:33
The source expresses frustration with Rome Odunze, noting his offensive pass interference call on a full arm extension into a drop touchdown was 'definitely not for a fun sweat.' The source anticipates the Bears receivers room will give Odunze significant criticism during film review for the play.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveMatchup14:09
Barkley was effective against the Cowboys last week and would have had approximately 25 fantasy points if fully healthy and played the full game; he scored 12 points on the very first drive. The Cowboys defense is historically bad against running backs.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveRole30:00
At 33 years old, Diggs is not expected to see significantly more targets with McLaurin out. The source notes that coaches are deliberately not trying to target him every single play, every single down, with Williams positioned as the primary beneficiary of McLaurin's absence.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeInjury28:47
McLaurin is out, creating opportunity for Antonio Williams and other receivers in the Commanders offense.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
NegativeUsage22:18
The source notes that Broncos OC Kranjiecki indicated Travis Hunter's weekly target/reception workload will be highly variable week-to-week, with some weeks featuring 10 catches and others only three. The source suggests betting on high reception props (e.g., 8+ receptions) as a contrarian angle given the unpredictable workflow.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:007-2 picking games on the season did take an L last week, but that's alright.
0:04We move with a winning record picking games against the spread beginning the show.
0:09The Detroit Lions minus three against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings.
0:12I will be placing my own money on this wager as we always do.
0:16The Minnesota Vikings, Dave, love to blitz. You probably heard this.
0:19Brian Flores, who said, you know, four is the average thing that you need to be doing.
0:24The Minnesota Vikings have blitzed on 71% of opposing team dropbacks this year.
0:28That is an insane percentage. No one else is even close to them.
0:32Last week against Daniel Jones, they blitzed on 85%, the highest single game rate since NFL NextGen stats started tracking.
0:38You might be saying, Davis, if they're this good, if they keep blitzing the quarterback, why would Jared Goff do?
0:44Jared Goff stinks. Why would we be wanting to do...
0:47Why would we want to do Jared Goff? Well, the thing is, Jared Goff, Dave, actually elite against the blitz.
0:53He is the best passer rating in the league against the blitz.
0:56He is .32 EPA per play against the blitz.
0:5953 completions on 69 attempts, 7 touchdowns, no interceptions.
1:02And I think it's actually pretty obvious to see why Jared Goff would be so good against the blitz because the decision
1:08is made for him before the ball is even snapped.
1:11He knows exactly where the ball is going to be going.
1:14When the whole deal with the Detroit Lions is it's not a freelance offense.
1:19It's not, oh, what if the defender does this, then I do this.
1:22If the edge comes here, I do this. It's, this is your first option.
1:27If you don't have that option, this is your other option.
1:30And we don't have a third option, right? Cause it's all, it's all just paint by numbers.
1:35It's the offensive coordinators in his helmet until the ball is snapped.
1:38So I think a lot of the obvious advantages for the Vikings are actually mitigated here.
1:43And you look, dude, you know, this is going to pain me to say the Minnesota offense stinks.
1:49So I think they are not set up to take advantage of what's so bad against the Lions.
1:54Dude, the Vikings are undefeated and they are 30th in the NFL in EPA per play.
1:59They are 25th in the NFL in EPA per drop back.
2:02And dude, this is so bad. I look, it pains me.
2:05I love Kyler. I do too, man. It's not it.
2:08He is dead last amongst all NFL quarterbacks, worse than Deshaun Watson, worse than Justin Herbert, worse than then Cam Ward in
2:15success rate, dead last in success rate. So the Lions have this shitty defense, but it doesn't even matter.
2:20It truly doesn't even matter for the purposes of this game, because what are the Vikings going to do?
2:26They're going to run Jordan Mason against this defense 27 times.
2:29I don't, I don't think so. Yeah, man, as a fellow Sooner bro, it is quite unfortunate that it's just, it might be over for Kyler.
2:37We saw him have like some nice little splash plays last week with his legs, but yeah, it's just, they got to figure something out offensively.
2:45If they do, man, they're going to be an absolute juggernaut.
2:48But I like the Lions quite a bit as well.
2:51As you're talking about Goff, he also has one of the best blitz beating wide receivers in the league in Amon-Ra St.
2:58Brown. Yeah, this could be really interesting from like a real life standpoint.
3:02If Goff is able to take down Brian Flores, I think, I know this is a, we're talking about spreads here, but
3:08a little sneaky MVP bet, Jared Goff, 30 to one on DraftKings.
3:12If he currently has 14 touchdowns, zero interceptions, if he can somehow have a spike week pop up with four touchdowns against
3:18a Brian Flores undefeated defense, we can see him jump up in odds quite a bit.
3:23So yeah, man, Goff nearly 2000 yards, 14, 14 touchdowns, zero interceptions.
3:26Nice little sneaky MVP bet. And I do like the Lions to cover minus three this week.
3:32Yeah, I mean, it doesn't feel that great to have Jared Goff against this fearsome defense.
3:36I mean, Brian Flores has had some games against Jared Goff where he has made Jared Goff look like a non NFL quarterback, you know, several times.
3:44But I do think St. Brown pacing to have a good game.
3:48I also think, you know, basically the Lions could come into this game and say, hey, man, we're just going to give
3:54the ball to Jameer Gibbs like 32 times. And he's going to need to ice up for the week after this, but
4:01we're going to get through this game here. And I also would guess that the Vikings are kind of a relatively public
4:08side here, a 6-0 team as dogs. I mean, maybe that's totally made up.
4:12But I guess to me, it seems like the Lions would be better than three points, better than the Vikings given.
4:18I mean, the Dolphins game, the Vikings could have like pretty easily lost that Dolphins game.
4:23Like they just think they got nothing. Yeah. And like just to bring up that point, it's like the Vikings defense is obviously very elite.
4:30Brian Flores is an absolute monster. But also look at the quarterbacks they've played.
4:34You know, they played Jordan Love week one. Okay, cool.
4:37Week two, they had that weather game against Caleb Williams, who kind of like not waived that.
4:42Week three, they played Jalen Daniels. Then they played the Dolphins.
4:46Then they played Tyler Shuck at the Saints. And then they played Danny Dimes last week.
4:50This is by far the best offense they're going to be going up against.
4:55It has elite talent everywhere, unlike their former opponents.
4:57So I would not be shocked to see the first L for the Vikings this game, just given the talent gap between
5:04the first six opponents and now Detroit. Yes. All right.
5:07So lock that one in. Dave, where would you like to go for your pick against the spread?
5:12All right, man. I, you know, I figured this is going to be quite the trap bet.
5:17I imagine the publics could be quite over this bet.
5:20I opened up DraftKings this morning, checked what I was going to bet on.
5:24And man, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored two and a half points against the Atlanta Falcons.
5:29They are playing at home. Baker is back. Their run game seems to be a little dominant.
5:34Bucky's being a war course. But man, to me, this came into a fancy team.
5:39Like for me, I think he's probably coach of the year right now, if not him, Kyle Shanahan.
5:44But I want to bet on the coaching advantage with the Falcons.
5:48I think B. John Robinson's probably going to have an outlandish game.
5:51This is definitely like one of the fish pick of the week.
5:55And I'm sure the public will be all over it.
5:58But give me Falcons two and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
6:02Man, you know what? I actually really don't think it is.
6:05I do think the classic like divisional road game taken like this.
6:09This probably breaks like a million of like the old school rules or whatever.
6:13But I think if you just look at it kind of objectively, Michael Penix has been like legitimately good.
6:18He is 10th in the NFL in adjusted EPA per play right now.
6:22We're just not used to thinking of Penix as being like an effective, good NFL quarterback because we've seen some real lowlights from him.
6:29He was kind of like his career started so strangely because they gave Kirk Cousins the big extension.
6:35Then they draft Penix. And so it just started weird.
6:38But like, I mean, compared to Baker Mayfield, Mayfield is the only quarterback who has been worse than Baker Mayfield.
6:44EPA per play is Justin Herbert, which is not to say that Mayfield is this bad.
6:49EPA is more descriptive than it is predictive. And clearly the Buccaneers, you know, kicked a bunch of ass last week.
6:55The Falcons are set up to play very differently than the Panthers are, though.
6:59Like they're they're they're happy to run the ball.
7:02They're happy to, you know, take their take their shots when they are there.
7:06I guess one thing you could be concerned about from a Falcons perspective is their best player is a running back.
7:12And Tampa Bay is like an year over year, just like an unbelievably good run defense.
7:17Baker is playing with the special cast on his hand, so he doesn't have like full like efficacy or whatever there.
7:23I mean, they also absolutely whooped the Panthers last week, but kind of fake, though.
7:28Like, yeah, Bryce, which I mean, Bryce was basically like playing like a high school quarterback.
7:32Like, I don't even know. What do you even do with the results from that game where Baker Mayfield has 11 dropbacks?
7:39I don't even think there's anything to really take away from that game.
7:43Yeah, I just think there's a lot of variance that can like go in favor for the Falcons better is whether like
7:49Baker just, you know, we didn't really get to see him last week during the ball.
7:54Whether, you know, his thumb is still a little jacked up.
7:57The Falcons run defense has done great. I mean, they shut down Ben Johnson's running offense last week or two weeks ago pretty well.
8:04So, yeah, I imagine the Bucs are just going to try to ETR it here.
8:09But I like I like the Falcons to kind of stuff them up against Ben Johnson.
8:14Obviously, probably one of the most lethal run attacks on the game.
8:17Three yards per carry on 33 carries. They shut down a big dog.
8:21Like, yeah, I like the Bucs quite a bit or the Falcons quite a bit here.
8:26Just giving the matchup angles. And, you know, hopefully this doesn't seem like a complete donkey take when they play a divisional game on the road.
8:34100%. All right. There you go. So our picks against the spread.
8:37$50 wagered on both of these games. The Detroit Lions and the Detroit Lions minus three.
8:42I got that at minus 120. There might be a better price out there.
8:46I don't know. I just have DraftKings up. So that's what I did.
8:50Then the Falcons plus two and a half minus 110.
8:53And I think taking the money line there is also fine.
8:56And now we are going to go over to Underdog Sports.
8:59And we are going to go fire some pick'ems with our friends over at Mike Nuggets helping us out there.
9:05And I'm going to pull this up in the other window so that I don't have any issues with location.
9:11Because I found that if I use Firefox, I don't have any issues with location.
9:16So we can do whatever we want. And I've got some boosts in the lobby.
9:20And I want to go ahead and begin with one of the absolute spots of the week.
9:25The Arizona Cardinals. Okay, let's see. Dallas Cowboys. And what I wanted to see was what they had for Jeremiah Love.
9:32So they don't have any rushing yards yet for him posted.
9:35I don't care. I think that he's going to play this week.
9:38I don't think Tyler Algier is going to play this week.
9:42Can I interest you in Jeremiah Love anytime touchdown at 2.4x?
9:45I will never say no to a running back against the Cowboys.
9:49You saw how effective Saquon, even to a lesser extent, Damian Pierce was last week.
9:53Freaking Damian Pierce looked good against the Cowboys. Looked good, man.
9:56And I seriously believe if Saquon was fully healthy and played the full game, he would have had 25 fantasy points.
10:03He was just set up to completely nuke. 12 points on the very first draft of the game.
10:08I do think Jeremiah Love plays as well. He was limited in practice yesterday.
10:12A little tidbit. Last week he had a little charity event in Phoenix.
10:16And obviously, he's not running full speed. He's not actually cutting like he is in a real practice.
10:21But he looked quite mobile there. So, yeah. I think Jeremiah Love plays.
10:25And then, yeah, this front defense, man. It's truly incredible.
10:28Somehow, week over week, the Cowboys defense just gets worse somehow.
10:31I'm not sure how that's possible. But, yes, I had one of the Cardinals.
10:36I have about six to six. I got eight players that we can pick from that I find promising quotes on.
10:42The Cardinals were on my radar. So, yes, I like Jeremiah Love this week.
10:46Also, a great scroll down in the BRs. I mean, BRs this week are – it's a tough slate just because there's so much talent on the slate.
10:54ADP of 36 right now. So, he's not drafted at all, and his projection is not that far behind.
11:00It's kind of how I got into Tony Pollard last week and had a good week.
11:05Jeremiah Love might be this week's Tony Pollard. I love that.
11:08So, a little quote here from Mike Duggets that I think is relevant, which is that Matt LaFleur says that Michael Wilson's
11:15reduced snaps reflect a deliberate receiver rotation to keep him fresh.
11:18I think that is insightful on how they're viewing the passing game with all these dudes banged up.
11:23But the reason why I think that applies to Jeremiah Love is that if they are deliberately doing that, to me, that
11:30says they kind of view all their receivers as the same, where I think they have the running backs in very hyper-segmented roles.
11:37And if Algier doesn't play this week, I could see there being some fear-mongering about Bam Knight.
11:42But I would guess that Jeremiah Love will have a larger share of the backfield than Algier did when splitting with Bam
11:48Knight because Jeremiah Love was the third overall pick in the NFL draft, and he's not Tyler Algier.
11:54So, I really, really like Jeremiah Love this week.
11:56I'll be taking a bunch of his hires across the board.
11:59Where would you like to go next, sir? Yeah, I just want to bring this up right before we head off with Jeremiah Love.
12:07We have him projected for 11.5 PPR points, ADP of 36 right now, projected ownership, 1.5%.
12:11I imagine he gets touted throughout the week, especially just this game having a 54 total.
12:16But, man, he's just a phenomenal scroll-down option. And compared to some of the guys that are 100% drafted, his projection is
12:23really not that much less than those guys. So, I'm really into Jeremiah Love this week in DFS and more particularly on underdogs.
12:30So, I love to lock in Jeremiah Love. Let's go with Garrett Wilson.
12:33Now, I know a lot of people, or not a lot of people, the coaches in particular, have been very vocal about
12:40getting him the ball quickly, getting him the ball more often.
12:43And it just hasn't really happened. I think, like, Reich and Glenn has been saying this for, like, two weeks now.
12:49But, like, this week in particular, it feels like they're really pushing it, talking about how they want him to get him
12:56involved early, a lot more early, get him with Pepper and with targets in the first quarter.
13:01So, I was kind of wondering if there's any first quarter props we can take on Garrett Wilson.
13:06They are favored against the Raiders. Should be a pretty good matchup.
13:10No first quarter. Okay, no. It's a good angle, though.
13:13The Mike Nuggets quote of just saying, like, he specifically is calling out first play of the game coverages on Garrett Wilson.
13:20And then, also, the next one is about not regretting or, like, regretting not throwing him the ball in a late red zone play.
13:27I love this angle because – and I also love this angle for Jamar Chase.
13:31I guarantee you, bet my last dollar, Garrett Wilson and Jamar Chase have been in the offensive coordinator in the quarterbacks years
13:38being like, this ain't working for me, boss. Letting Amari Cooper sun me.
13:42Not working for me, buddy. I bet if you can get – I bet they have this on DraftKings, but, like, true,
13:48like, first play of the game result reception to Garrett Wilson.
13:51Yeah, what can you get on that? But, yeah, I like all the Garrett Wilson stuff this week.
13:57I think they're going to make a huge, huge attempt to get him the ball.
14:01Yeah, so I want to ask you, do you prefer targets, yards?
14:05Like, to me, all of it seems really good.
14:07I'd probably lean targets. I think targets or receptions.
14:10Receptions obviously works if they do, like, two screens on the first drive or whatever.
14:15But targets I like to – I mean, targets requires, like, a little bit more pass attempts or whatever.
14:20So I would say targets or receptions, whatever you want.
14:23Yeah, let's just roll receptions then. Yeah, let's roll receptions.
14:26I think he's going to get peppered. The coaches keep saying it.
14:30At some point, they're going to have to, you know, follow through with their word.
14:34I think this is the week we can see a little Garrett Wilson blow-up game.
14:39So – and, yeah, talking about Jamar Chase, like, one of these days he's going to have, like, a, you know, that 152 game.
14:46I would bet it to be this week. Yeah, man, two then.
14:49I was going to recommend him. This is an absolute smash spot this week.
14:54Like, I imagine he's going to come in, like, 30% on, like, DraftKings FanDuel.
14:58He's so cheap this week. It's just post-bye week, like, like, I mean, I don't even have to say anything about it.
15:04This is an absolute smash spot. No, the Forrest Buckner.
15:07The Colts are throwing in the white flag. This is – the Slappies are finally going to win this week, man.
15:13The two then is going to get there. 100%.
15:16I mean, this is the spot. The spot – also, just an interesting thing, if you wanted to take receiving yards on
15:23Mike Nuggets, there's a quote from the offensive coordinator, Grant Udinski, about thinking the backs have more ability in the pass game than they've been able to showcase.
15:31He's obviously lying about Chris Rodriguez Jr. in the pass game.
15:34Like, he is in no way, shape, or form.
15:37Is that the truth? So, I don't hate taking receiving yards.
15:40I want to see if they just have fantasy points available.
15:44I think – I'm just going to take fantasy points.
15:46I'm going to take 13 fantasy points for Byshell Tootin.
15:49My mental model has Byshell Tootin for about 47 fantasy points in this game.
15:54I absolutely love – I just think he's going to smash.
15:57I think he's going to get, like, 22 rushes.
16:00And the usage was all trending very well for him.
16:03He did not have – I mean, he actually had a great fantasy game in the final game before their bye week.
16:09He didn't have a great usage game. I think that was a true hot hand spot for Chris Rodriguez Jr.
16:15And you're like, he just was running well. I would not expect that to be the plan.
16:20I would not expect a C&E, a Mirabdula in this game until maybe he gets totally out of control in the fourth quarter.
16:27But big, big fan of Byshell Tootin against Indianapolis Colts.
16:30Think it's just like an absolute jam sesh for our – I love it.
16:34I think we'll get a lot of CLB on this line.
16:37For sure, yes. And we have him projected for 14.8.
16:40So nearly two points ahead and half PPR points for Tootin.
16:44I think this is just – you know, he's going to be a league winner down the stretch.
16:49Like, we're going to look back. It's like, damn, we were really taking him in, like, the middle of the fifth round.
16:56This is going to age really well. I love me some Tootin this week.
17:00100%. All right. Now we need the fourth leg here to take advantage of the way that Underdog works.
17:05If you guys don't know, the most plus EB weight – there's actually a table that explains this on UD.
17:11But you don't get fully penalized for flexing when you go to the fourth leg.
17:16So, Dave, what is our fourth leg going to be here?
17:19Yeah, man. Let's get some Antonio Williams. A lot of talk between both Dan Quinn and David Blau this week about getting in more targets and snaps.
17:27Obviously, with Terry McClung going down, that makes a lot of sense.
17:31Three and a half receptions. Wow. So good. Three and a half receptions.
17:35His plus money is really good. He's run over 40% of his routes in the slot, but it's actually gone up to 56% the last two weeks.
17:43Terry McClung was playing around 20% of his snaps in the slot.
17:46So I think just kind of attacking that slot angle where we see Cooper, the jeans kind of having a down year.
17:53He's playing in the slot. We saw Seedy cook him a bunch this past week.
17:57I just think, you know, from the actual role he's going to have in this game on Sunday Night Football and then
18:04just the target volume he's going to see as well.
18:07So three and a half receptions seems pretty nice to me.
18:10Yeah, just so much positive coach speak on not only his development, but just talking about it, like how smart, how good his routes are going.
18:18Yeah, I just love Antonio Williams this week. I think schematically it's a good matchup against Cooper, the jean.
18:23I'm going to hopefully run around half of his routes from the slot.
18:27So yeah, three and a half. I thought it'd be four and a half, honestly, but this is nice.
18:33100%. So this was one of the spots I absolutely wanted to check.
18:37I mean, I knew that, you know, you go to the coach begin next step or do you go, you talk about like, what are these guys doing?
18:45I knew the first thing that the coaches would say this week would be Antonio Williams is going to have a larger
18:52role in the offense with no McLaurin. And the thing that I thought was nice was that they actually brought up Stefan
18:58Diggs not having too much more on his plate.
19:01If you go to Mike Nuggets, like literally, and you search Stefan Diggs, the first thing you see is them saying basically
19:07more or less this dude's 33 years old. Let's let's maybe not try and target this guy.
19:12You know, every single play, every single down Williams is the one who has the most to gain from McLaurin being out.
19:19So we're going to get three and a half receptions here with the positive multiplier.
19:23If you do the flex with this little boost we have in the lobby right now, this gets us to a nice little 10 Xer.
19:31The most I can play is 50 bucks. That is fine.
19:34Garrett Wilson, four and a half receptions. Jeremiah Love, anytime touchdown.
19:37By Shelton, 13.05 fantasy points. Antonio Williams, higher than 3.5 receptions.
19:41Receptions, you absolutely love to see it. And now we are going to get, we're going to get a little bit more D-Gen.
19:48I got a good one. I got a good one for you.
19:51I got, I got a lot of stuff for you.
19:54I think the one I'm going to recommend is, is going to get, get you pretty happy, but let's see your first one.
20:01We couldn't, well, I'll just tell you this. We can't do any worse than Nez and I did last week.
20:07We did a eight leg touchdowns on the dog app.
20:10For some reason, this clip went viral on Instagram.
20:13Like the clip I did a bit, like really like 80,000 views.
20:16First time I've ever had anything go viral on Instagram.
20:19The amount of touchdowns on this eight leg app entry, zero.
20:22Oh, for, oh, for eight. So I think there's effectively no way that we can do worse than last week, brother.
20:29So let's, let's absolutely lock in and cook ourselves up an eight legger here.
20:33I'm watching the video right now. 70, 75 K.
20:35Nice man. Damn, dude, this had a thousand shares.
20:381,100 saves. People were keeping their receipts on this one.
20:41And they should, they should keep the receipts because it was not pretty, man.
20:45It was not pretty at all. All right. That is, that is okay.
20:49Cause we're going to do a lot better than over eight.
20:52Do you want to start us off? Yes. All right.
20:55So we're going to begin. I'm going to take an absolute layup.
20:59Cause I actually think it's priced insane. I'm going to take Derek Henry.
21:03What are we doing? Touchdown. I think Derek Henry in this spot should legitimately be like what?
21:081.4 X. I mean, this should be like 1.1 X.
21:11This should be like, you're, you're paying like minus a thousand to score.
21:15Derek Henry is scoring against the 31st EPA per play defense in the NFL.
21:19I got a, I got a qualifier for the $1,500 main event on dropings this week.
21:24I'm 1000% playing Derek Henry in the spot. Like at 50 something point total.
21:28I know the run stop or run game has not been great for the, for the Ravens.
21:33But if Lamar's back, like this guy's going way under owned.
21:36His ADP is like 16 on underdog right now.
21:39Like this is, this is insane. He's scoring two touchdowns this week.
21:42Honestly, if you want to do two touchdowns instead of one, I'd be okay with that as well.
21:48Uh, this price is just absurd to me. Uh, give me the big dog this week.
21:52I love it. You know what I'll do? I'll, I'll, when we get done, I'll click reuse picks and I'll do one
21:59of this with, uh, with, with two touchdowns as well.
22:02I love it. Uh, I don't know when's the last time we saw this type of pricing on it on Derek Henry
22:09touchdown, but I'm more than happy to take it.
22:11Uh, okay. I'm going to, man, I don't know if this is something we want to do, but let me look at Travis Hunter.
22:18Travis Hunter. Okay. Okay. Let me, oh man. Okay.
22:21Okay. So I wanted the angle I wanted to take with this is I wanted to, uh, slide, slide his receptions or targets to something absolutely absurd.
22:29Uh, basically their OC Kranjiecki today was basically saying like, Hey, we not sure like how exactly the workflow for him is
22:36going to go on a week to week basis.
22:38Some weeks he might have 10 catches and then the next week he might only have three and so on.
22:44So I wanted to take the angle and be like, Hey, I might just like bet like Travis Hunter, like eight receptions every week.
22:51And just, you know, hopefully that, uh, insane payout, uh, is worth it.
22:55And you're capable of doing it on like a week to week basis.
22:59But yeah, just for the viewers, just something to keep your eye on, on the slider.
23:04Uh, like if you were able to get like 10 receptions for Travis Hunter, something absurd, uh, just something to keep an eye on.
23:11So, okay. We won't, we won't do Travis Hunter.
23:14That's okay. Um, you know what, man, do you want to do something for tonight?
23:18Oh, I guess it's coming up. Uh, no, cause we're not going to, we're not going to put it out till Friday morning.
23:25Right, right, right. Uh, well then after this is done, you can maybe look into, uh, target craft receptions.
23:31Uh, okay. Nevermind. Um, let's go chase Brown, man.
23:33I know his role has been not great. He's losing goal line work to some Maja.
23:38Um, man, they, they, they want him like they big time want him to have a good game here.
23:44Like there's never been, there's never been a squeakier wheel than, well, maybe, maybe Jamar chase is actually slightly squeakier actually, but,
23:50uh, chase Brown should be, should be fairly squeaky this week.
23:54Yeah. Like, so his usage is a little bit better than what his numbers have been putting up with.
23:59He's on the by Leone model. And again, when we're giving you all these like coach, all these coaches quotes and whatnot,
24:06like it's something to use in tandem with other resources.
24:09So for me, when I see Zach Taylor saying like, we are counting on chase Brown to have a big game this week.
24:16And I, and I also look at the projection and I look that he's on the by Leone model, which by the
24:22way is crushing this year, kind of pairing all that together.
24:25It's like, okay, maybe this is like a nice angle I want to take.
24:30So if you want to go like two touchdowns, you want to go like a hundred brush receiving yards.
24:35I'm good with anything like that. If you want to really go out there, but I do think we're to see like
24:42a pretty big chase Brown explosion game coming, uh, in the coming weeks.
24:46I mean, he had a, he had a great opportunity to score a touchdown last week and it was just like a
24:52weird, like stoppage of play thing that led to P Ryan coming in.
24:56So I don't think there's much of a reason to really be like chase Brown's lack of ability has been concerning, but
25:03the usage has honestly mostly been fine. Um, you know what?
25:06I'm just going to toss the toot and touchdown on this one.
25:09Well, it's just like, by shell by shell toot and is, uh, you're not even going to like get, get a first quarter touchdown on that one.
25:17It's a, it's happening. He's going to, so like, obviously he's been amazing this season.
25:22McCona has really like emphasized like how amazing he's done on everything that he's not actually like innately good at.
25:28So like he was talking about like how good he has been in pass pro and is receiving, but we haven't seen
25:34like his, you know, call to fame, which is like he in a big home run run.
25:40We haven't seen that yet. So I do think this week is the first week we see like that four, three speed get used.
25:47We see like a 60 yard touchdown. So yeah, I love tuning this week.
25:51I don't know. We don't got to talk more about him, but he's an absolute smash in the effects and props and everything.
25:58A hundred percent. Yeah. It's, uh, it's all happening for, uh, for Mr.
26:02Tootin. All right. So we've got Derek Henry. We've got chase Brown.
26:05We've got by shell toot. Where do you want to go next?
26:09I was going to say maybe Michael Wilson touchdown, uh, someone else who's on the by Leone, uh, some positive coach speak on him.
26:16It's just like, Hey, they're playing the Cowboys. It's a 55 total.
26:19Uh, you know, he's getting pepper with, honestly, really, really nice multiplier there as well.
26:244, 6. Wow. Um, yeah, just so it's a bet on Michael Wilson bouncing back this week against a really depleted, uh, Cowboys defense.
26:31And, you know, I'm not even sure like if Joey Porter is even going to line up with him just because there
26:38is a lot of talks about Kendrick Moore now playing the X, which would be kind of insane.
26:43But, um, yeah, I don't, I'm not sure if he's going to see a ton of Joey Porter this week.
26:49So yeah, I just like Michael Wilson this week.
26:52They're going to throw a bunch. Uh, this is a smash smash touchdown bet.
26:56Yeah. Yeah. Um, I'm hip with that one. I, I quite like it.
27:00I think that the, there were like those two weeks where everyone was very excited about Michael Wilson and he's kind of
27:06regressed to type, but actually if you look at his receptions and the yards he's expected to get his, his props actually
27:13have not moved much, which means coming, coming from on high, the, the tall towers in Vegas, they are seeing some things
27:19that we are not necessarily seeing there. Um, all right, I want to go to the, uh, chiefs Broncos game and I just want to check.
27:27Oh, okay. 1.67 X or a Walker touchdown that translates like minus like one 80 ish.
27:32I think look, was it painful last week? Kenneth Walker not scoring.
27:35Was it painful to, you know, I actually, he had a great quote after the game.
27:40He was like, yeah, I left the field. No, I didn't talk to those guys.
27:44That shit sucked. No, I got, I got out of there.
27:48He's like, I didn't want to watch them celebrate this win against my team.
27:52The, I don't think the chiefs offense is going to be very good here.
27:56I'm not like expecting like this big bounce back or anything.
27:59What I do think is unless they get a trade for a wide receiver in the next like 48 hours, I would
28:06expect like a lot of Jake Brenning stool and, and heavy personnel.
28:09I think they're just going to try and get out of here unscathed.
28:13They're going to say, Bo Nix is not good enough to beat us.
28:17We're going to run. Kenneth Walker is going to run 28 times in this game.
28:22I mean, he had what a 37 fantasy point in the reverse of this in Kansas city, the first week of the season.
28:29I think Kenneth Walker, anytime touchdown is, is beautiful here.
28:31There's no way he has the same game he did as he did in week one.
28:36Right? Like they got to do something to stop him.
28:39Like, I mean, I hope not. Like I, I have so many heavy bags of Kenneth Walker offensive player of the year.
28:46So like a big, big game here would be, would do wonders for that.
28:50But yeah. I would imagine like after the game he had in week one, he wouldn't be able to match that again, but we'll find out very soon.
28:58She's only one and a half, man. I assume it's in Denver now.
29:02Uh, yes. Yeah. This is, this is in Denver.
29:05Okay. Makes sense. Um, man. God, please God. Just like Kenneth Walker went off.
29:09Just let, just let him cook. Just let, just let, just let my guy cook, man.
29:14I do worry a little bit that he, I don't maybe, I mean, you watch the chiefs game, chiefs games in much more detail than I do.
29:22Is he just like not a great goal linebacker?
29:24I feel like he gets stuff more than he probably should.
29:28And I don't know if that's like offensive line play, if that's a him thing, but obviously it's that he just like,
29:34I mean, I don't think he's any worse at it than, you know, Emma Johnson would be or anything.
29:40I do think that he is always like, he's a bouncer.
29:43He just is always kind of trying to find, he doesn't love to just lower his shoulder and just push through.
29:49Like, that's just not real. So even the game before, so the game against the chargers, he had two touchdowns.
29:55I mean, the second touchdown, it looked like he was going to get stopped.
30:00And then he is like in an arm tackle and spins out of it and like runs around his blockers to get into the end zone.
30:07But yeah, I mean, maybe there's a little bit of a fancy play going on there.
30:12You know, I, I could see that being true, but I mean, they're just, they're just going to be able to run downhill this whole game.
30:20I think I met Kenneth Walker three years ago.
30:22Uh, so I used to be amateur boxer. I competed in everything and you know, I quit because I don't want CTE,
30:29but, uh, he came in over the off season.
30:32I guess he lives in Dallas over the off season and he came in, uh, for a coaching lesson with my coach
30:38and my coach had to like pick up his kid like last minute or something and had to leave.
30:44So it was just me and Kenneth Walker and I was training him on his first boxing session.
30:49But I just want to say like this dude is so incredibly small, but like the biggest muscle hamster I'll ever come
30:56across to a cost in my life. Like, uh, he literally is just like stone cold bill out of like rock, man.
31:02It's straight up rock. That's what his muscles look like.
31:05Uh, but absolutely just like such a nice guy.
31:08I just wanted to throw that little story out there.
31:11I fucking love him. So, uh, yeah, I love betting on Kenny dubs, Kenny, Kenneth Walker.
31:16So, uh, how many are we at right now?
31:18Five? Uh, yes. Yeah. So we need, uh, two more from you.
31:22One more from me. Um, all right. I had some written down and then I realized that tonight is not an option.
31:29Uh, why don't we just go? How do you feel like, how do you feel about it?
31:34I don't feel great about it. I don't feel bad about it.
31:37It's clear. They're trying to scheme stuff up for him.
31:40Why don't we just take, why don't we just take Bucky or Bichon?
31:44Yeah. No, no, no, yeah. Let's do Bichon by low model.
31:47I was going to say big time, big time by low model on Bichon after the most recent two weeks.
31:53Yeah. As long as the last two weeks was 23 yards.
31:56That's not going to stay, man. He's going to rip a long one this game.
32:01Uh, I love Bichon this week. That's a, that's an easy one to pencil in.
32:05Yes. Uh, all right. I just want to see if they have this posted.
32:10Um, I want to see if they have Eli Mitchell posted for, we have a sick production on him this week.
32:16We have, I know, I don't, I don't think they will have Eli Mitchell posted yet because Saquon is not officially ruled out yet.
32:23Okay. So they didn't, whenever, whenever that does get posted though, I would encourage you guys, uh, to go take a look.
32:30I want to look at a Monday night as well to see what we have here.
32:34Swift is 1.79 X. I mean, come on, dude.
32:37No dude burden, burden at, at almost burden at almost three X.
32:41There's no, I guess. Tell me if you think I'm, I'm wrong or right on this one.
32:46I think there's no putting the genie back in the bottle.
32:49I think that after that performance against the Patriots, you, you got, if you're Ben Johnson and you're as good at your
32:55job as everyone says you is, and Cole commit is out.
32:59How are you possibly going to limit my guy Luther Burton?
33:02How are you going to say, Hey man, the best thing for us to do as a team is to get John A Walker on the field.
33:10I can't, I don't think so, man. I don't think Sam Rauch playing 60% of the snaps is going to work.
33:16Yeah. I wasn't even going to say like, just obviously his performance was amazing.
33:20It's just like the Cole commit injury, I think is going to be massive to their usage of three wide receiver sets, 11 personnel.
33:28Uh, I think we're seeing a massive snap share for Luther Burton this week.
33:32Now, whether that's say the Cole commit injury or just because, you know, he finally is showing the world that he's fucking amazing.
33:39I mean, yeah. Give me some burden this week.
33:41I was just really into the, to the bears wide receivers in general, whether that's burden or Rome.
33:47So Rome, Rome like physically makes me angry to, it makes me, yeah, it's not, it's not fun.
33:52It's definitely not for a fun sweat. The offensive, the offensive pass interference, full arm extension into drop touchdown.
33:58As I was just like, God, that just, you just know they were all, they're going to watch film as a team on Monday, the receivers room.
34:06And they're all just going to give him so much shit for that.
34:10They're going to be like, this is the worst dude.
34:12What are you doing out here? All right, man.
34:15We got seven legs. Take us home with our final pick here.
34:19We're at 85 X right now. 86 X. Let's just keep it simple.
34:23Let's bet on our generations with Danny and Tomlinson.
34:25Let's just go to mere Gibbs. Uh, why not by low model.
34:29Uh, by Leon. I was going to say, I bet this is actually priced like not that crazy this week.
34:35I mean, it's still priced pretty crazy, but very, very reasonable.
34:38But I kind of like playing into our, until our angles of like the Falcons winning and the lions winning.
34:44Let's just bet on the two starter running backs, uh, to score a touchdown.
34:48The 10 to win 1,144. That's nice, man. Will you, uh, link that in our, in our stream, your chat.
34:54So I can also take that right now. Yes.
34:57I will put that in. Oh, uh, is my security code to log in.
35:01There we go. All right. There we go. $10 to win a thousand.
35:05Derek Henry cashes in against the bills. Chase Brown squeaky wheel gets some grease by shell toot and breaking out two touchdowns.
35:11Last game, Michael Wilson, everyone scores against the Dallas Cowboys.
35:14Even Makai lemon. Kenneth Walker doesn't do it against his old team.
35:18We'll do it against the Denver Broncos. Bijon Robinson, two down weeks.
35:22They're not going to keep a good man down three weeks in a row.
35:26Luther burden with one of the largest breakouts we have ever seen is going to continue to punish the Seattle Seahawks and Jameer Gibbs to round us out.
35:34Eight legs, 10 bucks into a thousand. Uh, absolutely beautiful.
35:37And I, you know what? I'm actually going to reuse these picks.
35:41I'm going to click another boost and I'm going to do the flex as well.
35:45Uh, there we go. All right. We are, we are locked in boys.
35:49Um, there we go. All right, man. Are you, uh, are you ready to talk survivor?
35:54I am, man. I, so as the viewers know, I went, we both Davis and I went full in on the charges the first couple of weeks.
36:02So I just assumed my season was just like absolute toast.
36:05I somehow have two of the remaining 94 big splash entries.
36:08And what's really fun is there's only five 49ers teams left.
36:11I have two of them. Uh, so lots of leverage there.
36:15Uh, one of my entries with crutches, uh, we have both the Niners and the Jags as well, uh, by all the models and Sims we've ran.
36:23Uh, it's by far like the highest EV entry left.
36:26So, uh, I'm at the point where like, oh shit, this is, this is getting real.
36:31So I've been hyper analyzing the fuck out of survivor more so than I was earlier in the year.
36:36So I'm excited for survivor this week. It's really just asking yourself like, and especially with this Jeffrey Simmons news, I can't
36:43imagine the Bengals coming less than like 40% on this week.
36:46It's just deciding, do you want to take the Bengals route?
36:49Do you want to take the Jacksonville route? Uh, do you want to take, uh, the commander's route?
36:55Maybe if you want to get a little bit contrarian, uh, what is your leans for this week?
37:00Uh, I'm excited to break this one down. All right.
37:03So my lean on the week is that the Jags on entries where you have them left are just too good to burn them.
37:10Um, now I agree, particularly, particularly so in the, the big, uh, survivor revival, they, so there's the 5 million survival revival.
37:17It goes into double picks very early, starts going into double picks in week 12.
37:21Um, and I've got a, I've got an entry in that.
37:24And then I've got four entries left in this wool cast pool.
37:28So they get Tennessee week eight giants, week 11, Tennessee, again, week 12 Pittsburgh week 14.
37:33And they actually get the commanders, uh, who are going to be like a three win team there in, in week 17 as well.
37:40Meanwhile, the Bengals, I actually think are in, um, I mean, they're, they're in spots where you would not really there.
37:46They're kind of the worst survivor spots actually where they're favored a ton, but not favored by very much like the, I
37:53think this is one of the most interesting things to do with the modeling is what do you do with a team?
37:59Like the Bengals that is favored by three, by four, by three, by five and a half, by, by a point and a half.
38:06It's like, okay, well, yeah, they are favored a ton, but if you're assuming that they're favored, they're favored in a lot
38:13of those games, but not by a ton that they could lines could get moved pretty easily.
38:18Like, oh, uh, left tackle is out or whatever.
38:21Um, okay. Well, then all of a sudden this team that I've been saving, uh, is not going to be a ton.
38:27Now, not the optimal pick in the week I was saving them for.
38:31Yeah. So the question to me is like their favorite 11 and a half this week, it might even go up after all this Jeffrey Simmons stuff.
38:39Uh, the next viable option they have in, this is double pick weeks and the big splash survivor.
38:44And I think the revival, but week 12, week 13, there's seven and a half point home favorites against the saints.
38:51And then six and a half point favorites at Cleveland.
38:54Those are the two only options I would ever consider them.
38:57Uh, they also have week 18 home at Cleveland minus 10.
39:00Uh, I just, there's no shot. The a hundred dollar splash is still running by then.
39:05So I haven't even considered that, but yeah, to me, it's pretty easy.
39:09I think they're good chalk this week. They're yeah.
39:12I'm, I'm, I have two entries left. I'm going to be playing them and probably both of them.
39:17Uh, and if not maybe Philly at minus six, just cause or not Philly commanders minus six, cause they're not favored again,
39:23uh, until week 13 where they have the Titans, but they're only one and a half point favorites there.
39:29So, um, those are the two options for me.
39:32I believe only 40% of the field have, uh, the pats left and this big splash I'm in.
39:37So be curious to see how they do there.
39:40But yeah, to me, it's just, it's the bangles week.
39:43Just click them and forget and move on to next week.
39:46All right, man. Let me, let me toss something out to you.
39:50Okay. I'm all ears. Really? It's really dark, dude.
39:52The Washington commanders are effectively unclickable. There will be no, there will be no other week where the commanders are favored.
39:59Correct. Truly on the look ahead lines, the closest spot is Tennessee.
40:02Yeah. That's, that's like really the only spot. Um, the commanders, I assume at any given point will be without Jaden Daniels.
40:09Like who knows when that happens? Will it be this week?
40:12Will it be next? Like at some point, Jaden Daniels will not be playing.
40:16And so therefore we'll be totally off the board.
40:19Um, I would obviously much more want to do this in double pick situations.
40:23So, um, I don't think I would want them in the, the revival right now, but in this pool right here, this
40:2925 K pool that I'm in, the double picks are, uh, insane.
40:33They start to, they start to go like, uh, absolutely nuts in starting in week 12, it's double picks the rest of the way.
40:40And I think in that spot, um, where my entries have been fairly chalky.
40:44I mean, all the ones that are left were those Houston entries.
40:48Um, I, I think I might do at least one Washington commander.
40:51I think in the, in the big pool for you, I think it is bangles lock it up.
40:57Just like, well, take your, I'm considering commander seriously, just because week 11, I still have a week 12 again, double pick week.
41:04I still have the Jacks to you. So I would probably take a minus 11 and a half against Tennessee.
41:10And then everything after that's a little dicey, like Cowboys play a divisional game on Thanksgiving.
41:14Those can get kind of gross, but against the bangles at home minus seven and a half is another spot I really want to look into.
41:22So I, I 1000% I'm going to play either the commanders or the bangles.
41:26I just, it'll probably come down to the last minute when I decide on which, but, um, yeah, I think kind of
41:33Davis's point, like in the more like larger contest, like the one I'm still sweating, I think bangles is probably the optimal
41:39move and something like what you're doing. I do think commanders is probably the right choice.
41:44And again, like you said, they don't have a single quote unquote usable week and they carry like a higher risk than
41:51probably any other team where they're starting quarterback can just go out at any given time.
41:55Yes. Yeah. A hundred, a hundred percent. Um, I mean, fricking Rams dude.
41:59I wish. Yeah. They're, they're having, they're having an instant.
42:02You know what? Actually, let me, let me draw it.
42:05Let me actually say this right now. The commanders are insanely good picks because the Eagles don't even really want to win these games.
42:12I mean, I think that, I think that's actually the more, the more interesting thing that starts to get into, um, that
42:19starts to get into some of the dolphins stuff where like the coaching staff and all the, like, they're all kind of
42:26making decisions that like, none of this really matters.
42:28You know, obviously players don't tank. I'm not suggesting that any of the Eagles players on the field are not going to be giving it their all.
42:36But like Devonta Smith, isn't going to play Saquon Barkley is not going to play.
42:41If anyone else is kind of banged up, they're probably not going to play.
42:45Whereas the commanders, they lose this game. That's it.
42:48Season's over. Dan Quinn, you're done. Uh, I don't know whoever their GM is probably probably he got hired in 2024.
42:54So maybe he's got one more year, but like it's, it's organizational upheaval.
42:58I will say for the dolphins, at least it's maybe like Jeff Happley has like a longer leash given like the situation
43:04is in and then the opposite where like Nick Sirioti might be coaching for his job.
43:09Um, so yeah, I agree. If, I mean, the Eagles are a smart organization, how he's a good GM, like they don't want to win.
43:16They want a high top, you know, five to eight pick and this loaded draft class.
43:21Like they, this is what they want. So, uh, I do think in the back of their heads, they're kind of, obviously
43:28they're going to say tank, but you know, they probably are.
43:31Um, yeah, yeah. And I have a very tough decision this week.
43:35Uh, commanders, man, I thought I was just smashed bangles in both my entries, but I might have to, I might just yellow and go commanders on both.
43:43And yeah. Have you considered, uh, selling any of the equity of these entries?
43:47Not yet. No, it's still pretty early. Like I, so I personally think the contest and the big splash is going to
43:54be over by like week 13 or 14. And just given that I'm one of the only few teams left with the Niners and the Jags.
44:01Like, I think that's a lot of leverage. I think I'm just going to try to win, man.
44:07Like, unless someone like offers something insane, I don't think I'm going to sell any of it.
44:12I think I'm going to get spot and I'm just going to hope to run good with variants, um, and try to ship it down.
44:19So I'm willing to chop whenever that option is available, but yeah, I'm ready to, I'm ready to try to win it.
44:26You know, that is a really interesting thing about the, the big, big survivor pools.
44:30Like imagine how big it's going to be next year, you know, with the, like the, the sizing of these is going
44:37to get crazy is you, you start to reach a certain size and it starts to be like, well, man, this is a really crazy top heavy contest.
44:45Like when should we start thinking about a chop?
44:48Like when should we start being like, Hey man, we've all, we've all made a bunch of money here.
44:53Yeah. Like I, I told, I have the entry of crutches.
44:57I told him like any chance we get to like 250 K like, you know, I'm good shopping there.
45:02Uh, I'm happy with that. Uh, we'll see the, like, again, the entry is like really, really fucking strong.
45:08So again, I think we're in a good spot.
45:11I just need to like run like the sun now and hope it goes well.
45:15So we've already ran really fucking hot voiding all this talk up to this point, but yeah.
45:20Uh, go Niners, go Jacks is a super entry.
45:23That's what they're saying. Yeah. And it's like a, it's like, it's also like a really interesting thing.
45:28Cause I think you can easily, uh, learn more long, the wrong lessons from survivor.
45:33We're like, okay, you were, you were, uh, one of the people who took the chargers in week two and you're like, good on you, man.
45:40You were so smart. You took the lower, like, why not just take a team that's guaranteed to win LOL.
45:46But then like, if you just took the LOL, no way this team loses, you're already out.
45:51I mean, look at J Mac, like J Mac has already gotten like a shit ton of his entries wiped out at
45:58just taking the biggest favorite every single week when there, there is real value in playing strategically in these contests because so many people are not playing strategically.
46:06So you can play in like an exploitative strategy relative to, to ownership.
46:10It's, it's not as simple as just like, okay, we'll just take the 49ers.
46:14They're favored by a lot. Yeah. And now they're competing against like super entries that, you know, when the Niners are playing
46:21like, um, like in week 13, when the contest like more than likely supposed to end, it's like, uh, that week San
46:27Fran is playing, uh, who are they playing that week?
46:30Uh, yeah, they're playing the giants as seven point favorites.
46:33Like, well, even next week against the, the, the Raiders as 10 point favorites, like, uh, you would have to play like
46:40a lot riskier team than I am. And yeah, it's just like, I, it's just like, I think in the moment people
46:46are very easy to be like, yeah, let's just like try to have a sweat for as long as we can.
46:53But like when the money weeks are actually starting to come and like, when it starts to matter, you're like, well, shit, I'm still alive.
47:00But the, you know, this lineup I'm going against is 10 times more likely to win because it has a 10 point
47:07favorite and I'm playing a one point favorite, you know?
47:10So yeah. Um, long winded way to say, she's like, you know, think ahead, you know, no one's making money until, until
47:16week 14, 15, 13, whatever that is. I like it.
47:19I'm convinced. I'm convinced. Um, I am taking the commanders on every entry remaining in this world.
47:24Wow. They're not going to lose. They're not losing.
47:27LOL. They can't lose, right? They can't lose. They're not there.
47:30And if, and if they go out, I'll go out on a, I'll go out of my funeral pyre with my guy, with my guy, Dave.
47:38God, like, yeah, I maybe I'll do, you know what?
47:41I'll do one bangles. I'll do one bangles. So at least we have a pick to make next week.
47:47I am. God, I, I have so much to think about whether I want to play commanders or not.
47:52Like, you know, honestly, the smart moves probably just split bangles and commanders, but I've kind of just want to keep writing
47:59both entries into like chopping weeks and see if I can like double dip.
48:03That's probably not smart. Anyways. Yeah. Go commanders. Go bangles.
48:06Um, I'm curious to see the, the, my, the Patriots ownership this week against Miami.
48:10Um, I feel like didn't they already have one big chalk spot?
48:14They did, but there's still like, I think like 50, 40% owned, at least in my contest.
48:19So I'm going to be curious to see how much of those users still are willing to use them because they don't
48:26have a, you know, a big usable week until week 18.
48:29And I am certain this contest won't be alive in week 18.
48:32Yeah. Wow. They really, so green Bay Detroit. Well, at, at the chargers turns out, turns out that's going to be a pretty usable week.
48:40Yeah. Um, yeah, yeah. I, the, the real chaos obviously begins during the double pick weeks.
48:45I mean, that's when you start to have to like, things get, things get very, um, yeah.
48:50I think next week I'm going to use Niners and then either Seattle or commander or Seattle or Detroit.
48:55Um, and then just hope like one of the chalk teams loses.
48:59And then like, you know, again, there's only three other 49ers entries that aren't mine.
49:03So it's like, God, please off a bye, just, just beat the Raiders.
49:07Your 10 point favorites. Don't do anything crazy. So yeah.
49:10Uh, all right, man, everyone. Oh, actually forgot to, forgot to shout out our sponsor.
49:15Yeah. I forgot to shout out. They, they had a sick one.
49:18This is okay. I, I really liked these guys.
49:21I've been getting to know them since running the site and they had a self disgusting one.
49:26And they took the, uh, in, in game four of the WNBA finals, they took a live under that ended up clearing,
49:32I think by like four points, which is just like, I don't know, getting that, getting the live alert to my phone
49:39to take the under on, uh, on, on Chicago and the Valkyries.
49:43I was like, Hey, all right, man, I'm not even going to question this.
49:47I'm just, uh, I'm just plugging it in. And then another shout out.
49:51If any of you guys watching this are wanting to, uh, burgeon yourself into, uh, content for live stuff, they are building
49:57in a, uh, a map to do that on the app.
50:00So works, works very similar to the way the action network app used to work.
50:05I haven't used the action network app in like four years, but this is the way it used to work that you
50:11could basically just like publish your plays on there and your friends could see them.
50:16So shout out to our boys over at live line IQ, uh, link down in the description.
50:21We'll get you 40% off for the first two months.
50:24Uh, check out Mike nuggets.com, uh, root on Dave and crushes in the survivor, uh, tail, the touchdown entry, and I'll be back with you guys tomorrow.
