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2026 Augusta Preview

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15 min
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Apr 6, 2026
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Mon, April 6, 2026
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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

411
0:002026 Masters Week is here. I've got you
0:02covered for everything you need for DFS,
0:05betting, golf pools, whatever you're in.
0:07Thanks to our friends over at DraftKings
0:08for sponsoring us for this video. New
0:10DraftKings customers download the
0:11DraftKings DFS app and enter promo code
0:14Madden to get three tickets, one each
0:15for MLB, NBA, NHL contest with a minimum
0:18$5 deposit. Take your shot at a share
0:21for $4 million of prizes. What I've got
0:23pulled up is just a nice little course
0:25summary here. There are three main
0:27categories that really impact how well
0:29you are able to score at Augusta.
0:31Strokes Gained Approach, Strokes Gained
0:33Off the Tee, and Strokes Gained Around
0:35the Green. 35% of the scoring variation,
0:38according to Data Golf, comes from
0:40around the green. It's absolutely
0:42amplified by just how hard these greens
0:44are. When people talk about, "Oh, you
0:46know, if I turned at Augusta at 100
0:47under par, would I be able to win?" The
0:49answer is definitely no, because of the
0:51greens. The greens are so hard to get
0:54your ball to stay. It's why you see guys
0:56who have played this golf course a ton
0:58of times do so well here. Strokes Gained
1:01Off the Tee, actually, you think it
1:03would be very important, and it is. I
1:04mean, you need to gain strokes off the
1:06tee, but it's easy off the tee. There is
1:09no rough. It's called the second cut.
1:11The fairways are really wide. You can
1:13hit driver a ton. You're not going to
1:15see guys taking, you know, driving
1:16irons, three woods off the tee all that
1:19much. Strokes Gained Around Green,
1:21according to our friends over at Data
1:22Golf, way more difficult here, and you
1:25need to gain more strokes, effectively,
1:28because of the way the course is laid
1:29out. You're hitting an extra wedge shot
1:32per hole, which all ties into something
1:34that you guys see on the screen here,
1:35which is that course history is so, so
1:38important at Augusta, more so than any
1:41other event that they play on the PGA
1:43Tour. According to a study that Data
1:44Golf did, it basically is the number one
1:47place to adjust for course history, more
1:50so than any US Open course, more so than
1:52any Open Championship course. It's got
1:54genuine predictive power here.
1:56Obviously, I'm going to say the line,
1:58Bart. No debutant has won here since
2:00Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Now, Will
2:03Zalatoris, the year that Hideki came
2:05quite close, uh but there you go. That
2:08is the course intel. I think all this
2:11stuff is pretty straightforward. All
2:13right, so let's preview the field. At
2:15the top, we have Scottie Scheffler, Jon
2:16Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele,
2:18Matt Fitzpatrick, Bryson DeChambeau,
2:21Tommy Fleetwood amongst the favorites
2:23for this event. Obviously, one of the
2:25things we know is that not that many
2:27guys can win at Augusta. That's just the
2:29way that it goes. I would say probably
2:31maybe 10 to 12 guys are capable of
2:34winning this tournament. Generally
2:35speaking, the rule has been you need to
2:38have gained at least 1.7 strokes per
2:40round. That needs to be your average
2:43compared to the field. There are only, I
2:45believe, 13 guys that meet that
2:47qualification this year, and they're
2:49mostly on the list that I just named. I
2:50think technically, Min Woo Lee and Chris
2:53Gotterup fit that list, and I do like
2:55Min Woo Lee for daily fantasy, but I
2:57don't necessarily think that those are
2:59guys who can win at Augusta. This would
3:01be my list. You can disagree. Maybe you
3:03agree. I would say these are the list of
3:05guys who I think are possible to win.
3:07Scottie and Rory, Rahm, Xander,
3:09Fitzpatrick, Bryson. I personally,
3:13I can't see Fleetwood winning. I just
3:15can't see it. Hideki Matsuyama, I think
3:17can win. Cameron Young can win. I think
3:20Morikawa, if his back was not hurt, is
3:22also amongst that winners list, but I
3:24don't think Henley can win. I do not
3:26think Bobby MacIntyre can win. I don't
3:28think Spieth can win. I do think Justin
3:30Rose, actually, can win. I place a lot
3:33of emphasis and a lot of value based on
3:36the course history and the course
3:37experience, but also how well guys are
3:39playing right now.
3:41But by and large, when you're building
3:43lineups this week, when you're in your
3:44pool, you're going to have to make a big
3:45decision. Scottie, Rahm, Rory, or
3:49Bryson. My favorite of that list is
3:51Rahm. Rahm, even with playing on the LIV
3:54Tour, is still
3:55one of the best two players in the
3:57entire world in Data Golf's Strokes
3:59Gained, which is, if you think about it,
4:01pretty insane, given how Data Golf
4:03adjusts for the LIV fields. It's
4:04actually incredible for Rahm to still be
4:07that good. Rahm is my pick to win. Rahm
4:10is who I'm taking in one-and-done, and I
4:12really like Rahm on DraftKings for DFS
4:14this week. We can transition towards my
4:16picks right now, and we are going to do
4:18another show. I'm going to be joined by
4:20my friends from RunTheSims.com. We are
4:22going to actually go to RunTheSims.com.
4:25We are going to run all the sims with
4:26updated projections and ownerships. I
4:28don't have ownerships updated in over on
4:30RunTheSims quite yet.
4:33Rahm is my favorite pick at the high
4:34end. I like him at his salary more than
4:37I like Bryson, more than I like Scottie,
4:40more than I like Rory. I'm a little bit
4:41worried about Rory's back. I'm a little
4:43bit worried about Rory's focus playing
4:45this event after, you know, how
4:46emotional it was for him last year. Rahm
4:48is the most consistent player in the
4:50world, plus 2.7 adjusted strokes gained.
4:53He has not been outside the top five in
4:55any of his LIV starts.
4:57Look, I know we're all very disappointed
4:59in Jon Rahm, but I do think that the
5:02fact that he's on LIV is kind of
5:03penalizing him from our point of view.
5:06Rahm, over the last two years,
5:08granted, he's on the LIV. He's been
5:10close in terms of adjusted skill to
5:13Scottie Scheffler. We just don't watch
5:14him play. No one watches LIV. You know,
5:16if a tree falls in the forest, does
5:17anyone hear it? If you play a golf
5:19course in the middle of the night in
5:20Jacksonville, does anyone watch it? No,
5:22they don't. No one watches it. Now, next
5:24up, it's really interesting to see that
5:27Fitzpatrick is going to be super popular
5:30this week. And you would think, you
5:31know, "Oh, the guys who win at Augusta,
5:33they hit it so far off the tee." Well,
5:35it actually, compared to, again, an
5:37average PGA Tour course, you don't have
5:40to be as long off the tee due to the way
5:42that the course plays, which does fit
5:43fit which does fit Fitzpatrick quite
5:46well. Uh in the Data Golf projections,
5:48he is the highest value score in the
5:50field. He's already won twice. That is
5:52another big thing.
5:54Historically speaking, when you look at
5:56winners and top five finishes at
5:58Augusta, they're guys who have already
6:00defined the golfing season. They're guys
6:02who have already played very, very well.
6:04Fitzpatrick is playing the best golf of
6:06his life right now. He is on pace to
6:09have his best strokes gained tee to
6:10green of his career. Keep in mind, this
6:12is a major champion. This is a guy who's
6:14won on the DP World Tour. Matt
6:16Fitzpatrick is a great golfer, and he's
6:18playing the best golf of his life right
6:20now. He ranks sixth in golf in Strokes
6:23Gained Approach. Min Woo Lee is
6:25absolutely my favorite value play. I
6:27honestly, I don't care how expensive he
6:29gets in terms of the ownership. Like, I
6:31don't care if he's going to come in at
6:3322% owned. It's not a big field. There
6:35are only 91 golfers in this field. It's
6:37top 50 ties, and then I believe it's
6:39anyone within 10 strokes of the leader.
6:42So, it's very easy to make the cut. I
6:44kind of almost play this like a no-cut
6:45event. Min Woo Lee gains strokes in all
6:48the right spots. He has three top fives.
6:50Almost had a win at Pebble Beach. He
6:53gains strokes in every major Strokes
6:55Gained category. Uh he's actually my
6:56favorite pick. I've already bet him on
6:58DraftKings in the outright market. Now,
7:02his price went down a lot. I believe the
7:03number I got on him was 55 to 1. That
7:05number is probably gone, but I like him
7:07all the way down into the 30s. I I want
7:10to have just a lot of exposure to my
7:12guy, Min Woo Lee, this week. Now,
7:14heading into this event,
7:16I kind of thought that Si Woo Kim would
7:18end up getting a lot of the the hype for
7:21a mid-$7,000 golfer. He had a very good
7:24finish to his round last week on Sunday,
7:26fired a low number, got to the top 10.
7:29His tee to green is third in the entire
7:30field over the most recent 6 months. His
7:32ball striking is third overall.
7:35He is terrible at putting. Now, again,
7:37remember, when we go to the course
7:38intel, Strokes Gained Putting, you would
7:41think, cuz we think about Augusta, we're
7:43like, "Oh my goodness, the greens are so
7:45hard. You got to make these putts. You
7:46got to know." And technically, any golf
7:49course that does have a surface that you
7:50have to putt on is probably not a great
7:52fit for Si Woo Kim, but I've also bet on
7:55Si Woo Kim to win this event. According
7:57to Data Golf, putting drives less
8:00variation at Augusta than the tour
8:02average, because the greens are so hard
8:05that it's actually just, in general,
8:07very, very hard to gain strokes putting.
8:10So, the thing that matters is around the
8:11green and approach, which is, again,
8:14where we know Si Woo Kim amongst the
8:16best in the entire field. The guy is
8:18awesome. Now, my graphic here that I
8:20created has Schauffele as a core GPP
8:23play. I'm actually not going to do this.
8:25Instead of running in on Schauffele,
8:28what I'm going to do is I'm actually
8:30just going to be higher than the field
8:31on Fitzpatrick, who's around him, on
8:34Hideki, who is right less than him. The
8:36guy I'm having trouble deciding on is
8:38Ludvig Aberg, who just cannot seem to
8:40close on Sunday. I also prefer Hideki to
8:44Xander, as well.
8:45Xander certainly is like one of the
8:47great course history plays, three
8:48straight Masters top 10s. People
8:50actually forget he almost won the year
8:53that Tiger won in 2019, but only parred
8:5615 when everyone else was birdying and
8:58the eagling it, which kept him from
9:00making that run. Hideki obviously won in
9:022021. He is awesome. He has one of the
9:06biggest course history adjustments from
9:09Data Golf, which is big, right?
9:11Remember, I was just talking about how
9:12this is the course you need to adjust
9:14for course history. Hideki's Strokes
9:16Gained at this golf course, compared to
9:19other golf courses, amongst the biggest
9:20in the field. He's been quite poor for
9:23his standards off the tee this year.
9:25But if we think about the way that this
9:27course plays, if we think about the
9:28stats that matter here, we care a lot
9:30more about his Strokes Gained Approach
9:32and Around the Green. Hideki has also
9:34generally not been a great putter. And
9:37again, a course where it doesn't really
9:39matter. Kurt Kitayama looks like one of
9:41the good true punt plays. There
9:43obviously are not going to be that many
9:44good punt plays uh below $7,000 here.
9:48Some of them are going to be in play.
9:50Ryan Gerard at $6,800 is okay. Harry
9:52Hall at $6,900 is okay. If you wanted to
9:55get really, really cheap, you could get
9:57to Nick Taylor as potentially a cut
10:00maker, but I don't think that you should
10:01go nut. We're going to see Mav McNealy
10:03pick up some ownership. Anyone who is
10:06pretty cheap has made some cuts on tour,
10:09the projection models tend to love,
10:11which I know that data golf projections
10:13do like Mav McNealy.
10:15Now, I'm very curious about what happens
10:18with Bryson because he's not been
10:20particularly good on approach this year
10:23on the LIV Tour and just in general in
10:25the events that he has played with other
10:27quality players around the world. He has
10:30not been a particularly good approach,
10:31which if you think about the way Bryson
10:33plays, of course he's not that strong on
10:35approach. That's not That's not the part
10:37of his game. The area where Bryson gains
10:40strokes and he gains strokes if he still
10:42played on the PGA Tour with his current
10:44swing.
10:45I mean, I wonder if he would be setting
10:47records for strokes gained off the tee.
10:49Like we all watch Bryson's YouTube
10:51videos and everything and I am I'm kind
10:53of partial to Bryson. I do like I like
10:55his videos. I like him. Like I
10:57think his whole deal, like he's kind of
10:59annoying, but he's also kind of
11:00charming.
11:02Maybe kind of resembles me. Like I'm
11:03kind of annoying, but also kind of
11:04charming.
11:05I wonder what the ownership is going to
11:07come out as because if Bryson ends up
11:09being by far the lowest owned of
11:12Scheffler, Rahm, Rory, Xander. Like if
11:15we get to Thursday or Wednesday evening
11:19and Bryson is going to be 9% owned, I'm
11:22going to have a very, very hard time not
11:24playing him. He's listed as a fade right
11:26here because in the back end of my
11:27stuff, I've got him with just like a
11:29standard ownership projection. But man,
11:32it's going to be really hard on a fast
11:35and free Augusta. The reports are right
11:37now, there's not going to be any
11:39weather, there's not going to be any
11:40wind. Like these guys are going to be
11:42able to roll Like some of these par
11:43fives, Bryson is going to get an absurd
11:45amount of roll on his shots and it's
11:47going to be harder for him to hold the
11:48green.
11:50But man, I we got to be really sensitive
11:53on ownership for Bryson. And then we've
11:55got Ludvig Aberg. I'm out. I at some
11:58point in his career, he's going to rip
11:59off some majors the same way Xander did,
12:01the same way a lot of people thought
12:03Cantlay would. But man, I am I am just
12:06completely out on Ludvig right now. And
12:08then a final look at these strokes
12:09gained stuff in the field. Obviously,
12:11Scotty leads in total strokes gained.
12:13Rahm across the entire world second in
12:16the field. Very funny.
12:18Over the most recent 2 years, we've got
12:21Knapp as really high up on this list.
12:23Strokes gained off the tee we don't care
12:26as much. But I I just think looking at
12:27this stuff cumulatively is interesting.
12:29I've not mentioned Cameron Young yet. He
12:32also fits my rule of positive adjustment
12:35on the stats that matter. Has been one
12:38of the stories of the tour this year. I
12:41think it's I think it's very interesting
12:42and I actually have booked a Cameron
12:44Young bet to win as well. Some of the
12:47lineups that I've run through already on
12:49the Run the Sims stuff. Rahm,
12:51Fitzpatrick, Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim,
12:53Nicolai Hojgaard and Sam Stevens. That
12:55is a good example of high-end outcomes
12:58with Rahm and Fitzpatrick, two of the
13:00strong value plays.
13:02Then adding in Hojgaard.
13:04Very key here though.
13:06Leaving $1,900 of salary allows this
13:09lineup to sim well because that is a
13:13uncommon pairing. A lot of the times
13:15you're going to see a $6,400 Stevens
13:17with Scotty. A lot of the times when you
13:19see Min Woo Lee and Si Woo Kim together,
13:21you're also not going to find Nicolai
13:24Hojgaard with them. They're probably
13:25going to max out two of those plays. So
13:27I do tend to think a lot of that stuff
13:28is very interesting. A reminder that all
13:31this stuff, all these stats, the updated
13:33projections from fantasygolfbag.com,
13:36that's going to be up on
13:38runthesims.com. That should be up
13:40probably on Tuesday. You'll be able to
13:43run sims, you'll be able to run
13:44optimized lineups, all the stuff you
13:46want over there. But that was just a
13:47quick overview at what is happening with
13:50the Masters right now. It's very
13:51interesting that Scotty is coming in not
13:54in the best form, has not been the story
13:56of the golf year. Meanwhile, Rahm is
13:58priced all the way down at 10,000. I I
14:00find the ownership split between those
14:03guys to be basically the most
14:05interesting thing of what's going to
14:06happen. Like if Rahm comes in as the
14:09most owned player and we get, you know,
14:11Scott Can you imagine Scotty Scheffler
14:13at the Masters being 16% owned? I think
14:15it would be
14:17unbelievable. We're going to update you
14:19guys more on that. Again, thank you to
14:21our friends over at DraftKings for
14:23sponsoring us this week. We really
14:25appreciate our friends over there. Make
14:28sure that use code MADDIE to get three
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14:32contest with a minimum $5 deposit. We'll
14:35see you guys back tomorrow.

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