VideoFrom Davis Mattek

Davis Mattek

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1 hr 24 min

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Adonai MitchellBlake CorumBraelon AllenBrock BowersC.J. StroudChase BrownChris RodriguezColby ParkinsonD.J. MooreDalton SchultzDavante AdamsDavis AllenDrake MayeGeorge Pickens

Player analysis

Player insights

Adonai Mitchell

NegativeInjury46:57

Davis Mattek expects Adonai Mitchell to miss the upcoming game due to his week-to-week injury status.

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Blake Corum

NegativeValue18:25

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism regarding Blake Corum's redraft ADP, arguing that his standalone role is not meaningfully better than other backup running backs like Ty Johnson. Corum lacks standalone value while Kyren Williams is active, though Mattek notes he would be a 'complete smash' handcuff if Williams were to miss time.

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Braelon Allen

PositiveBreakout44:49

Davis Mattek identifies Braelon Allen as his gold star play for the week, projecting him to start at running back for the Jets with Breece Hall out. Mattek anticipates a significant role increase, projecting a 65-70% snap share for Allen.

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Brock Bowers

NegativeUsage4:07

Davis Mattek uses Brock Bowers as a benchmark for high-volume tight end usage, noting that Dalton Kincaid does not play as many snaps as Bowers.

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C.J. Stroud

NegativeProjection43:29

Davis Mattek notes that while Stroud has played decently individually, he is not a priority target for fantasy lineups this week.

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Chase Brown

NegativeValue25:33

Davis Mattek plans to fade Chase Brown, noting he is over-owned and faces a tough matchup against a top-tier Jaguars run defense. Mattek expresses concern that the Bengals' shift to under-center formations may systemically reduce Brown's receiving role. He explicitly prefers Jeremiah Love over Brown for both the current week and the remainder of the season, noting that Samaje Perine continues to siphon green zone touches.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeRole61:58

Davis Mattek expects Chris Rodriguez's role to diminish in more serious games that the Jaguars prioritize winning, noting he and Amir Abdullah were barely playing in recent action.

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Colby Parkinson

NegativeRole7:57

Davis Mattek describes Colby Parkinson as essentially a sixth offensive lineman used primarily for blocking rather than drawing targets. Parkinson serves on early downs in 11 personnel, but his role is volatile due to injury concerns and competition with Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen for pass-catching snaps. Unlike the team's primary pass-catching tight ends, Parkinson does not move before the snap.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveUsage1:53

DJ Moore returned to the lineup with a 33% target share, which Davis Mattek views as a potential threat to Dalton Kincaid's fantasy production, describing the target distribution as a concerted effort by Josh Allen to get Moore involved.

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Dalton Schultz

NegativeValue43:36

Davis Mattek advises against playing Schultz because his price remains inflated from the period when he played without Nico Collins.

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Davante Adams

PositiveUsage19:25

Davis Mattek suggests Davante Adams will have low ownership in DFS this week due to the return of Puka Nacua, making him a potentially advantageous play in tournament formats.

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Davis Allen

NegativeUsage8:45

Davis Allen remains part of the Rams' tight end depth chart, having run five routes in week two compared to four for Tyler Higbee and 10 for Colby Parkinson. Mattek notes that Allen previously dealt with an injury that impacted his availability.

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Drake Maye

NegativeInjury0:00

Davis Mattek dismisses concerns regarding Drake Maye's shoulder, stating there is nothing wrong with it and noting he was not added to the practice report with a shoulder injury.

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George Pickens

PositiveBreakout43:44

Davis Mattek views George Pickens as a high-upside play at $6,300, projecting low ownership (8-10%) and anticipating an 'explosion game' against a Texans secondary that has not been imposing. Mattek also notes that Derek Stingley Jr. will likely shadow Pickens because he is a more stationary receiver.

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Isaiah Davis

NegativeDepth Chart44:55

Davis Mattek notes that Isaiah Davis failed to record an offensive snap last week, suggesting he may have fallen out of favor with the coaching staff.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveUsage62:18

Davis Mattek is comfortable rostering Ja'Marr Chase as part of a lineup stack, though he notes that Tee Higgins may end up with higher ownership in their shared game environment.

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Jake Ferguson

PositiveRole7:42

Davis Mattek identifies Jake Ferguson as the primary pass-catching tight end for the team, noting that he is frequently in motion before the snap, unlike Colby Parkinson.

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James Cook

PositiveUsage4:33

Davis Mattek notes that James Cook remains a viable DFS play every week, functioning as an elite runner in a top offense. Cook is currently in a '2024 Saquon Barkley' range, though his fantasy ceiling is capped by a lack of targets and an inability to secure one-yard touchdown opportunities due to Josh Allen's involvement.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeProjection20:10

Davis Mattek notes Jaylen Daniels is priced at $4,400 for his first start, but warns against expecting high efficiency from the UDFA rookie, predicting turnover risk in his debut.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveUsage23:56

Davis Mattek identifies Jeremiah Love as a 'lock button' play, projecting him for 27 points and noting his massive workload, which included 28 touches in the previous week. Mattek argues that initial concerns regarding Tyler Allgeier's involvement were overblown and that Love's role has solidified as a workhorse; he is no longer being eased back from his high ankle sprain. Mattek explicitly prefers Love over Chase Brown, citing a better matchup against the Giants and superior fantasy value.

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Josh Allen

PositiveUsage2:10

Davis Mattek notes that Josh Allen is actively prioritizing getting DJ Moore involved in the offense, which impacts the target distribution for other pass-catchers like Dalton Kincaid. Additionally, Mattek highlights that Allen consistently steals touchdown opportunities from James Cook, noting that the goal-line distribution does not feel like a 50/50 split in favor of the running back this year.

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Kenneth Gainwell

NegativeUsage21:33

Davis Mattek would look to fade Kenny Gainwell if he becomes highly owned, citing concerns over low team play volume and uncertainty regarding his role split with Sean Tucker.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveUsage15:55

Davis Mattek argues Kyren Williams is a very good DFS play at $5,900, highlighting his role as the lead back in a top-five offense. Williams maintains a high floor because he handles pass-down work and two-minute drills, and he sees increased snap shares when the team is trailing. His health is the primary factor dictating the fantasy viability of backup Blake Corum.

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Luther Burden

PositiveUsage45:18

Davis Mattek highlights Luther Burden as an objectively great fantasy play, citing his 11 targets in the previous game with Case Keenum at quarterback.

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Malik Nabers

NegativeBust28:33

Davis Mattek expresses significant regret over his late-summer pivot to drafting Malik Nabers, fearing that his closing line value is effectively zero and noting that Nabers consistently fails to appear in optimal lineups.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveInjury7:10

Puka Nacua is dealing with an injury that creates volatility in the Rams' personnel groupings. Davis Mattek notes a history of Nacua playing through injuries and risking reinjury rather than being load-managed, and suggests that with him back in the lineup, the target distribution is condensed, making it difficult to trust him over Jordan Whittington for DFS purposes.

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Samaje Perine

NegativeRole26:04

Davis Mattek notes that Samaje Perine's role in the Cardinals' backfield is not meaningfully different from Tyler Allgeier's, as both are secondary options behind Jeremiah Love.

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Tee Higgins

PositiveValue62:18

Davis Mattek identifies Tee Higgins as a key component of a 'lineup that builds itself' alongside Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington, projecting him to potentially carry more ownership than Ja'Marr Chase. Mattek is open to playing Bengals receivers to leverage off the high ownership of Chase Brown.

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Trey McBride

NegativeUsage4:07

Davis Mattek uses Trey McBride as a benchmark for high-volume tight end usage, noting that Dalton Kincaid does not play as many snaps as McBride.

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Tyler Allgeier

NegativeRole26:04

Davis Mattek notes that Tyler Allgeier's role in the Cardinals' backfield is not meaningfully different from Samaje Perine's, as both are secondary options behind Jeremiah Love.

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Tyler Higbee

PositiveValue7:42

Davis Mattek identifies Tyler Higbee as an interesting large-field MME play at a $3,100 price point. While his projections are modest, he possesses theoretical 11-target upside if he secures the primary pass-catching role in the Rams' offense. Higbee's role remains uncertain in a rotation with Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen, though he has shown movement before the snap.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveUsage31:42

Zay Flowers is considered a smash matchup play by Davis Mattek at $6,900, with Mattek noting he is currently averaging over nine yards per route run.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

794

0:00Stop asking about Drake May's shoulder.

0:02It's fine. It's fine. There's nothing wrong with Drake May's shoulder. Rael says it's fine. I mean, it's certainly nothing that he was added to the

0:09practice report with a shoulder injury.

0:11I mean, certainly that wasn't a uh decision made, you know, after the fact after Drake May keeps complaining about the shoulder. I am so down, Jacob, on

0:20the New England Patriots that my most bidded on defense this week in high stakes fantasy football waiverss was the Buffalo Bills defense. I I mean I just

0:29like I just I just think this is where we're at with the New England Patriots is like we don't frankly this week you

0:34know what we don't we can actually skip the Raandre Stevenson Trevon Henderson discussion because it doesn't [ __ ] matter. They're going to get they're

0:41going to get blown out by the Buffalo Bills.

0:44>> Uh yeah, I mean that that's that feels quite correct. Um, I I saw like an NFL network power rankings this morning that

0:53put the the Patriots at 31 behind the Miami Dolphins, which is like obviously incorrect, but is really funny nonetheless. Um, and uh yeah, it's

1:04pretty bleak right now in in Patriots world. So, I I don't think we even need to talk about this team. I don't think

1:11any of them are remotely playable.

1:13>> No. The interesting thing for DFS this week is DJ Moore returns to the lineup last week, has a 33% target share,

1:20clearly came at the expense of our boy Belton Concade, who I think you and I both like rest of season rankings wise

1:26are are pretty pretty high on.

1:27>> Mhm.

1:28>> Honestly, in a way I did not anticipate.

1:30Like to me, the DJ Moore stuff is very Make a Wish, power of friendship, like Josh Allen being like, man, I got to

1:38make sure to get this guy his numbers because, you know, we went out really as an organization and um stuck our necks

1:45out for this guy. Whereas Conincaid looks like he is playing, you know, basically the best football of his career right now. I would really like to

1:52play some concaid lineups this week because it looks like ownership at tight end is going to be very, very consolidated. But if DJ Moore is going

2:00to step back in and have this role, then uh I'm thinking I'm thinking probably no.

2:07>> Um I'm not that worried about Concaid.

2:10Like he had like Moore had a really nice role in week one and concaid still had a really nice role and then I think people

2:17have uh kind of ignored like the second game because Moore left injured, but he played almost the whole first half. I I

2:25think he left that game with only a couple minutes left in the first half and he got injured on his first target

2:31of that game. Concincaid was already having a really nice start to the game before Moore got hurt. So I like we've

2:37seen Concincaid um be quite productive for six quarters playing next to DJ Moore and then he just had a slow game this week. Um yeah,

2:47I mean he he doesn't like he doesn't play as much as a Brock Bowers or a Trey McBride. plays a lot more than he played

2:54previously.

2:56>> But I do think that that like some of that role limitation kind of meant that like weeks like this last week, I feel

3:03like we're always part of the range of outcomes. Like it we kind of felt like through two weeks it was like, "Oh my

3:09god, is this guy just going to score, you know, 20 points every single week?"

3:13I was like, "Probably not."

3:15Um Leone who was really high on Kade uh coming into this season kind of said last week like I still think there's a

3:21floor here that we just haven't seen yet and and I'm a little bit um afraid that we'll see it this week. So shout out to

3:28him on that call. Um but anyways, I I don't it didn't like drastically change how I viewed King Cade. um the fact that

3:35he has that floor game potential. Um like I definitely think he should be projected below more straight up each week, but I I definitely still think

3:45Concaid like remains a very central part of the offense, especially because it's not like any of the other secondary options particularly produced last week.

3:52Um, so I I think it's it's Morink and Kade are the two guys here and then in any given week Shakir or Coleman, you

4:01know, or whatever could have like a kind of a random popoff game, but it it seems like on the aggregate of the time that

4:08they've played this season, it's it's clear there's a top two, but I don't think that it necessarily will always be all more and and no concade or all

4:15concade and no more like it was in week two.

4:17>> Right. So you're I mean you're like the only James Cook correspondent I know other than other than Chess Liam. I mean

4:25do you view this as a Cook spot? I I would I would think probably no. Um >> I wouldn't say I'm a James Cook

4:32correspondent. Like I I was pretty low on him in like seasonal rankings. I was not one of these FFPC boomers taking him

4:39at like the 105 and the 106. I I just played a lot of him in in DFS last week cuz like

4:46>> Yeah. I mean, it just felt like coming into last week, you know, it was like two weeks into the season, the Bills

4:53look like the best offense in the NFL, and all of a sudden, no one had any interest in playing James Cook anymore

4:57because Josh Allen stole his touchdowns.

5:00And it was like he's 6900 and like he's going to be like virtually unplayed in a game that everyone thinks they're going

5:04to win in a blowout. Like, that seems kind of wild. Um, and he did outscore Ken Walker last week, so that that

5:10worked. I had um I finished fifth actually in that contest that I was sweating last week and um I was so

5:17ticked at myself because I had that lineup um until about 50 minutes before lock. I had it with Michael Wilson and

5:26Titans D and then I had I had I only played four lineups last week and two of them had Michael Wilson in it. Um and I

5:34decided to swap off Michael Wilson in that one and I went with Savior Worthy and Vikings D instead. That was the

5:40difference between fifth and second. So, it's pretty pretty tilting to watch Michael Wilson go for like 26 points as my as my lineup fell from first to to

5:49fifth. But anyways, um the James Cook play last week was good. But, uh unfortunately, the lab play that I paired it with didn't really do quite as

5:57much. Um I think he's fine this week. I think he's fine like every single week.

6:01He he will have a chance to score touchdowns. It does seem like last year it felt like it was about 50/50 whether they would give it to

6:11James Cook or Josh Allen from the one that >> does not feel does not feel 50/50 this year.

6:16>> No, like James Cook's touchdown was what from the four the five last week. That's where he's going to need to score his

6:20touchdowns. So he's he's basically in like 2024 Saquan Barkley range right now I think which is >> he's the he's one of the best runners in

6:32the NFL. He's in the best offense in the NFL. Um he is not going to get very many targets though and he is never going to

6:40score a one-yard touchdown. So you are you the degree to which he is going to pay off for you is pretty dependent on

6:48can he rush for over 100 yards and like can he hit a a long run and can he can he get touchdowns from the three or

6:59beyond.

7:01>> Yeah. Yeah. He will not be getting he will not be getting any bunnies. I mean, this game honestly it it should be a

7:06good game. Uh but it's just not going to be a good game at all due to whatever is going on with Drake May, the Los Angeles

7:12Rams, and the Philadelphia Eagles. This game is interesting for a couple reasons. The first being sounds like Puka is going to play. He is priced down

7:20at 7500. He is 15 uh $1,500 less on DraftKings than Jackson Smith and Jik, but I would assume Puka playing means he

7:30is a full go. I don't think I mean our experience with Puka in the past has been he will leave and go to the locker

7:36room three times in a game, but when he is, you know, active and on the sideline, he is playing every single

7:41snap. Then the secondary interesting thing is that Higgby would have projected as massive chalk with no Ferguson and no Puka. But now we are

7:50having to do the mental gymnastics of well what does the tight end rotation look like with Puka back but no Ferguson

7:57and Parkinson >> Parkinson might play?

8:00>> Parkinson I think probably will play but he's going to play the same way he played last week where I frankly I think

8:06Kobe Parkinson is just he's like a sixth offensive lineman now. I think the way my my read of what they did with the

8:13tight end room in the offseason, and maybe you would disagree with this, is they reconfigured the tight end room around Ferguson's position instead of

8:21Parkinson's position, and Parkinson is now the Davis Allen. He He is not He is not the one in there to draw targets.

8:29He's the one in there to block. Like I I would I would imagine if we pulled up the NextGen stats stuff or the True

8:36Media stuff, Parkinson probably has not moved before the snap once yet. Like he's not been in motion. He's not gone across the formation. Whereas Higgby

8:45Higgby and Ferguson, like every snap, they're moving before before the ball is snapped.

8:51>> So in week one, we saw like Higgby had almost no role.

8:58Um he he played a little bit while Parkin was it Parkinson? No, Davis Allen was the one who got um banged up at some

9:07point. Um but their their starting 13 personnel package in that game was Allen

9:14Parkinson and Ferguson. And then like I I definitely think in the 13 personnel package, Ferguson is the primary passcatching tight end. That's that's

9:25clearly the case if when he's selfie, >> right?

9:28>> Um and then in that game one where they went to 11 personnel, um it was either Ferguson or Parkinson

9:38who was staying on as the pass catching tight end and and they kind of rotated.

9:43And then in week two, I I I actually I don't recall like fully seeing the route rates, but I'm I'm I'm

9:53Let me pull it up cuz I I'm pretty sure it was the same. Um and then what happened in week three was that like

10:00after both Parkinson and Ferguson got hurt, then Higgby sort of became that pass catching guy. But I'm not totally

10:09sure that he would even be ahead of Parkinson in that role. Maybe he would be.

10:15>> So like, okay, so so week three.

10:18>> Yeah, week two, Ferguson ran 23 routes.

10:22So he is separated from Parkinson as the kind of like 11 personnel route running tight end, although they barely played any 11 personnel in that game.

10:29>> That's the thing is, and I don't think they're going to play very much 11 either.

10:33>> Parkinson ran 10 routes. Davis Allen ran five. Higgby ran only four routes in week two >> out of 33.

10:40>> Higgby, I think this is my projection.

10:43Higgby, I think is Ferguson's backup.

10:46That's that's my reading of the situation is that Higgby is like Parkinson because, you know, we're used to talking about tight ends in terms of

10:55like, okay, you have your blocking tight end, you have your move tight end, right? But that's not the way the Rams

10:59offense works. The way the Rams offense works is like you've got our move tight end, we've got our blocking tight end,

11:06and then we kind of have this third tight end. I wouldn't even know what to call this third tight end role, but you

11:11have like the Ferguson role, the Davis Allen Parkinson role, and then the reserve tight end role that basically is kind of out there for these Devonte

11:19Adams uh 13 personnel snaps. I guess now Puka 13 personnel snaps. My read is the three tight ends in base personnel would

11:28be Parkinson, Ferguson, Davis Allen with Higgby as the reserve. Um, and then I guess another wrench to be thrown is Claire will be active for this game and

11:37probably will get his first probably will get his first.

11:40>> I don't think he'll be a big part of the he'll be active I think, but the Rams just like they love to slow play a

11:46rookie. I I think I think Claire will see his role increase in 2027. Like I I'm sure he'll play some snaps, but I

11:53don't I don't think he's a major threat.

11:56>> I mean, this is very This is very inside baseball. Like probably too much honestly for this show. But Ferguson's when not his first active week, but his

12:04first spike in playing time was the game that Puka missed in the London game last year. He caught a touchdown in that

12:14game. And I wonder if Ferguson now missing then provides that spike in playing time for Claire. I I don't think so. I don't think so. But it's another

12:23reason to be unclear about Higgby.

12:25>> Yeah, I think he'll play like a few snaps would be my expectation for Claire. I I just think that it's really

12:32I mean Parkinson might not play, so it may not matter, but I I don't think it's as clear-cut that he'd be would be ahead

12:38of Parkinson as a pass catcher. He he wasn't in the first two weeks. I I just think like really I think what it comes

12:45down to is is who is the passcatching tight end in or who who plays in 11 because I guess that's the other thing

12:51is that if if Puka is back this week I think we will see a lot less 13. We're still going to see a lot of 13 that they

12:58love running 13 but I don't think we'll see quite as much of it with Dvonte and Puka because they're going to want to

13:04play those two together plenty, >> right?

13:06>> And then who is the who is the tight end in 11? because through the first two weeks it was Parkinson on early downs

13:12and Ferguson on passing downs for the most part >> and and it was never Higgby. Um and then it was Higgby in week three but but

13:18Parkinson came in questionable and then he he got hurt and maybe he misses this game and then it's clearly Higgby. But I

13:24I think there's a lot of moving parts.

13:26The other moving part is who was the wide receiver in 13 personnel because in a lot of uh 2025 it was Dvonte Adams and

13:37then late in the season and into the playoffs they swapped that role to Puka and in week one it was Puka but like now

13:44Puka is dealing with an injury. Adams has looked fantastic for the last two weeks. I'm guessing it's going to be Adams and Puka will be load managed. Um,

13:52but that's a huge like input volatility spot because that could totally go either way. It could be Adams, it could be Puka, it could be Split.

14:00>> It could be. Yeah, I would I would guess honestly I would actually guess Puka will not get load managed that much

14:06truly. Like that that really is my guess. I think if he plays he's playing they they just there there's not that

14:12many examples of Puka being load managed. like if anything if anything he has a higher risk of reinjury in this game that I would actually buy. I mean

14:22we've seen this with Puka a ton where he gets banged up in games. Uh I remember I believe it was week one or week two we

14:29were doing the shipcast last year and we had Puka's receiving overs and he literally left the game three times. Um yeah just just completely completely

14:39insane. That's a long way of saying I really would like to play Tyler Higgby at 3100, but I think I don't I certainly

14:48don't think you could do it in like cash or anything. I do think he's it's like pretty interesting in large field MME

14:53because I he's not going to end up projecting that well, but I do think he does have I mean 11 target upside or

15:01whatever from whatever he had. Two other things from this game. Uh, I mean, Puka himself, depending on what the projected ownership will be, I'm going to guess it

15:09ends up not being that high. Like, he'll get owned, but he will not get owned like if he had a full projection, which

15:15makes him very interesting. And frankly, Jacob, I know you are loathed to admit this. But Kairen Williams at 5900, I mean, he just is a very he's just a very

15:24good play. He he is getting he is getting um like he's getting work like at the beginning of last season before

15:32Cororum had started to really uh dig into his overall usage.

15:37>> Yeah, last week was a bit of a departure from the usual rotation. They what they've typically done since the middle

15:44of last season is that it's basically a driveby drive rotation, but Kirn gets the pass down work and like two-minute drill stuff.

15:51>> And then like in games like they completely control like week two, the snaps are relatively even. Um, and they they were in that case. And then in

16:00games where they fall behind like in week one, then Kirn gets all the comeback mode stuff and so he get he

16:05plays a lot more snaps. Um, it gives Kairen a really nice floor because like either they get either they get ahead,

16:12which means the snaps are pretty even, but probably Kairen has scored a touchdown. Um, as part of how they get so far ahead, or they're in a really

16:20tight game or coming from behind, in which case Kiran's just going to play more snaps and then he's going to get

16:24his floor that way. Last week, Kron was just getting more snaps and I think because that's like the best game of

16:29football Kiran Williams ever played. is really good. I >> I was like consistently impressed by Karen Williams and I think that they

16:36rode the hot hand a bit there. I I think that if they were to win this game quite convincingly, um it's more likely than

16:44not we would just see the rotation we saw in week two. Like I I think that was kind of a oneame thing. I don't know

16:50that we're just going to see 7030 split for the rest of the season. I still think they really like Cororm, but like

16:55Kairen is the much better play. It's not a 50-50 committee. His roles is definitively better. He's the one that you start in managed leagues. Um, and

17:04uh, yeah, I think he's a totally fine play. 5900. I I would say that like I'm not really a Chiron truther, but I've

17:10been so radicalized by like not understanding the Cororum thesis all off season that I've like almost become a Chiron truther. Um, because I wasn't

17:20really drafting that much of either of them. But I I was so perplexed by the Corum Price that I'm probably less

17:26offended by by like the existence of Kairen Williams than I usually am. I've been a Kairen Williams truther against my will. Like having to be in on Kairen

17:34Williams like a a freaking four ras guy who like actively isn't even good. But having to draft this guy and be above

17:42market on this guy has been very annoying to me. Like he he's just like the lead running back of like one of the

17:48five best offenses in football. And people have become enamored by this backup who's not even good. Like generally speaking, a quorum type that

17:55people love is like a nine and a half ras guy who caught passes in college and like you know generally like a small

18:03school guy generally not a big school guy you know it's like I mean pard obviously is the best example of this

18:08Ben Tate the more uh if you're a millennial like me you remember the Ben Tate but like Cororum to be like what

18:15what was his closing ADP in BBM like the running back 34 or something like >> round seven I I I just didn't really

18:22understand this at all. I I actually got it a little bit more in best ball because at least with Cororm the case

18:27you could make for him is he has le contingent value but >> he has like a best bowl best ball viable

18:34standalone role that other backups don't have. I I didn't get his reddraft price at all because I'm like you're never starting this guy I don't think with

18:44Kiran active and in reddraft his standalone role is like not meaningfully more valuable than >> Crod like EMTT Johnson's or like

18:55anyone's like it's like right like the difference between a player who projects for seven points per week >> and and and four points is completely

19:06meaningless and managed It's it's meaningful in baseball because you know of that seven there will be weeks that are 11 or weeks that are 12.

19:14But yeah, I never understood the the case in in manage. Of course, if Ky Williams does go down, Corm will be a

19:22complete smash, but I think he he requires that.

19:25>> Are you into playing I mean Adams will not get owned this week with Puka back.

19:30Um, so I think you can honestly do one of two things. Like, and this is a good spot to do it because the Rams passing

19:36stuff is so condensed, but like Adams is going to be like 5% owned this week, honestly. Um, so I think that's uh I

19:43think that's kind of an interesting spot. Although his target volume is going to decrease a ton.

19:48>> Yeah, I'm I'm open I would be more h Yeah, I I'm I'm going to have to think about playing those Rams wide receivers.

19:57Like I don't know that we're going to get reporting on who's going to play in 13 personnel. That just doesn't feel

20:01like the kind of thing that we're usually going to get like beat reporting on, but I my inclination would be that

20:07it's Adams. So, I think I would be more likely to play him than Puka.

20:10>> Yeah. All right. Uh give me the Green Bay Packers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jaylen Daniels will be starting this game. He is 4,400. So,

20:21your classic uh puke start. I mean, frankly, uh, we can probably get through this game very quickly because there's one guy I want to play in this game. His

20:30name is Matthew Golden. Uh, that's it for me. No Craft, no Lloyd, uh, no Bucky really even for me. You could you could

20:37talk me into Bucky Irving. Um, love doubles. I I think you could get away with. I mean, are the Buccaneers going

20:45to be able to do anything offensively in this game? Like, honestly, the Packers defense has been quite bad. Um, so maybe

20:50they're able to run. What What's your read here?

20:54Yeah, I think the Bucks are probably just an avoid. I think they're going to you're going to see like the Malik

20:59Willis experience, but probably with a worst quarterback. I kind of like Jaylen Daniels. I thought he was fun in college. I think it was the 2023 season

21:08>> that he was like on the fringes of Heisman contention through five weeks. I think Kansas started five or five and0

21:12or 6 and0 that year.

21:14>> Things really unraveled for them and then uh Daniels got hurt kind of earlyish in that season. And anyways, but um I don't expect him to lead like a

21:24highly efficient NFL offense as a UDFA rookie in his first start. I I would be thrilled if he did, but that can't be

21:30the base case, obviously.

21:33Um if somehow Bucky doesn't play, which I think he will. He was limited in practice on Wednesday, so I'm guessing he's going to play. If he somehow

21:42didn't, I'm really interested to see how the field would play. Kenny Gainwell.

21:45That would be like >> a spot where I would really love to fade if he came in owned just based on the

21:52>> potential low play volume.

21:54>> Yeah. And I would love to fade that.

21:56Like if we could get a a really owned running back on a team starting a UDFA quarterback where there's also some

22:02uncertainty about how much Kenny Gwell's role would increase and how much Shawn Tucker would factor in. Like I I would just really love to fade an owned Kenny

22:11Genewell. I hope that's not the case because I hope Bucky Irving plays for like my managed teams. But I just want

22:16to flag that I would not be in on $4,700 Kennywell with Jaylen Daniels at quarterback. But um yeah, Packers wise, I would be I'll be definitely playing

22:28Golden and I'll I'll be very open to playing Watson and I'd be pretty open to like playing Jordan Love with either or

22:35both of those. I don't think I would be playing any other Packer.

22:38>> Yeah. Uh yeah, that that marks my theory. I mean, Golden I don't even think we need to give him the honorific

22:45of gold star play. He just is like an absolute jam. I This dude is wide receiver 2 in expected fantasy points

22:53this year in fantasy football. Like he just is having an unbelievable usage. Um and I don't think the usage is going to

23:00change at all. I mean I guess actually an interesting thing about this game is the is the Packers defense at 3200

23:06against Jaylen Daniels. like I don't know how many pass attempts we're going to see, but Daniels ate a ton of sacks

23:11in college. Um, if you're looking for a reason to play Jaylen Daniels, I will say this, his backup, literally his backup at KU uh was the Colts backup

23:21quarterback for a stretch.

23:23>> Yeah. Was was the Colts backup quarterback for a stretch uh last year and has bet quarterback. So like I I

23:31don't know. I mean, if you want to say that Jaylen Daniels is better than that guy, uh, which he is, he I I would

23:36encourage you before you make your decision, just go watch like five minutes of Jaylen Daniels like just bombed or whatever, he is pretty fun,

23:43but he's going to he's going to turn the ball over. He's going to have like one interception that'll just completely melt uh your brain in this one. All

23:50right, the Arizona Cardinals traveling to play at the New York Giants. Uh, the Giants, how are the Giants season going?

23:56They're home dogs to the Arizona Cardinals. That's how the New York Giants season is going. Uh Jeremiah Love, I don't think is going to end up

24:05being mega chalk based off the stuff that I'm looking at. I want to play the out of Jeremiah.

24:12>> Is it not going to be mega chalk?

24:14>> I think he's going to be I think he's going to be owned, but I don't think he is going to be like one of the three

24:19most owned players on the slate. Yeah.

24:21Based off I looked at >> I looked at Roto Grinder's ownership. I looked at ETR ownership. I looked at our ownership. I I don't see him as like we

24:31our algorithmic ownership doesn't have him that owned. Um >> he's 16% on ETR and he's 14% on rotor grinder. So not like mega mega shock.

24:42>> Well then he will be in 100% of my lineups.

24:45>> Yeah, I completely agree. Like it's he's going to score like 27 points here.

24:51>> Yeah, I I think he is like pretty decisively the best play on the slate.

24:57He I mean it's actually it's actually insane.

24:59>> Okay. So like I this is this is I mean I wonder if this is something where like the algorithmic ownership has to shift

25:05towards the actual public over the course of the week and you know it's Thursday so I haven't heard of like everything the public is doing but like

25:12like the the algorithmic ownership seems to be favoring um like Aaron Jones >> over Jeremiah Love >> and like absolutely not. Yeah, that's a

25:23single world in which that's what I'm doing with my life.

25:26>> That's the way all every every site that I just checked has Aaron Jones projected for more ownership right now.

25:33>> Also like Chase Brown, but like Okay, so I understand that like the preseason expectations Chase Brown was going

25:42higher um than Jeremiah Love. No one thinks that Chase Brown's better at football than Jeremiah Love. Like Chase Brown doesn't even think that. Chase

25:51Brown's mom doesn't even think that. No, no one thinks that. Um, and now they basically have the same role, right?

25:58Like they they each are getting all of the touches and they share their back field with a a guy who plays like some

26:04third downs and like occasionally mixes in on early downs. Like Tyler Algier's role this last week is not meaningfully different than Sam Pine's role. Um, and

26:13then they Yeah. Okay. Chase Brown obviously plays in the Bengals. does better than playing on the Cardinals, but they play the best run defense in

26:20the league this week and Chase Brown plays the Giants who are very much not that. Like I would way rather play I

26:28would much rather have Jeremiah Love for the rest of the season than Chase Brown.

26:32And I would much rather have Jeremiah Love this week than Chase Brown. The only reason why Jeremiah Love wasn't a first round reddraft pick was that we

26:39knew we were going to have to deal with some Tyler Algier [ __ ] for >> and we thought the Cardinals were going

26:42to be worse than this also, >> right? And we thought the Cardinals were going to suck. Cardinals are fine and the Tyler Algier [ __ ] lasted two

26:49weeks. Like it's it's kind of it's kind of bizarre that we haven't reacted more.

26:54I mean, I thought Jeremiah Loves Price was kind of crazy to begin with. I thought the people who were fdding him

26:58after two weeks were like a bunch of clowns that had never watched an NFL season before and that don't understand this is what happens with rookies. Um

27:06like I I had him in my top 12 rest of season before this last week, but it's kind of crazy if people aren't acting on

27:14this. Anyways, maybe this will be all for not and he's going to come in 30% owned because people are going to look

27:20at the algorithms, they're going to piss on them over the course of the next 3 days. I don't know. But I like him a

27:26lot. I like him a lot more than Scataboo on the other side, too, who I also kind of like cuz his role improved last week.

27:31But love like would be a lock button play if he's less than like 25% owned.

27:37>> Yeah. And which and frankly I think he's probably a lock button even if he does end up being the most own running back.

27:43Like I I don't I don't actually really care. I I just think this is sort like to me this is like um we got a couple

27:50weeks like this last year where you and I locked button Ashton Genty like just like if it's a good spot for him, you

27:55got to just do it and this is the spot.

27:57This is the spot where um he's a he's going to be able to I mean what did he get last week? 28 touches I

28:05think last week. Uh I would assume something like that. And if you're looking for a reason why they would have stopped pushing the algae button and

28:13started using Love, it's very easy to forget this dude had a high ankle sprain six weeks ago. They were easing him back

28:19in. I assume his ankle probably feels better. Um, yeah, I'm I'm completely all in.

28:25>> He's He's He is the best running back play this late. I'm I'm completely with you on that. I would, Jacob, I would

28:31love right now to be like, "Yeah, dude.

28:33This is the neighbor spot." I'm I'm worried. I'm worried it's not happening, man. I'm worried that all my my neighbors closing line value is actually

28:41worth zero [ __ ] dollars.

28:44>> Uh yeah, I'm very worried about that.

28:46And I'm I'm also regretting I I can't think of a play I can think of plenty play plenty of plays that I was

28:55in on all year that I wish I wasn't and plenty of plays that I was out on all year that I wish I was in on. All of the

29:02plays that I was out on for 75% of the summer and got in on at the very end seem like things that I regret. Like I I

29:12I very much regret going from a 0% neighbors person to to hitting him hard at the end of August. I very much regret

29:22being a a Price Fader and getting in on that. Being a Hampton fader and getting in on that. Uh yeah, it's it's looking

29:29bleak. I Maybe Jamus figures it out here.

29:35I don't know. It's a It'll be nice for him to not be in the nor easter, but he's looked dreadful for the last couple

29:41weeks. I think that the the betting line seems to agree that Jameus Winston has looked completely dreadful >> for sure.

29:48>> 6K Neighbors is tempting.

29:51I wouldn't I wouldn't say he's out of my player pool, but I don't I don't know that that's where I'm going to end up.

29:56Probably not.

29:58>> Yeah. Yeah. I I I don't know. I mean, I've been playing a little bit less teams this year. Like, normally I do

30:06like 10 or so. I've been doing like five this year. So, I have a little bit less room. I mean, frankly, the biggest thing

30:12that I'm doing differently this year and other years is I'm playing like way less fancy. Like, I really like I don't think

30:17I've played a lineup that is more than like five points off like the top projected optimal on Run the Sims all

30:23year. And my results have been a little bit better both in terms of like sim ROI and real ROI. shocking how how uh how

30:30that works. And Neighbors is just not even gonna get close to these optimal lineups the way that stuff is is coming

30:36out this year. So, I really do think it probably is just Jeremiah Love for this game. You want to know a reason why

30:40Jeremiah Love is not going to end up being 50% owned? It's because lineups are going to come preloaded with $8,400 Derrick Henry against his old team, the

30:50Tennessee Titans. And frankly, Mr.

30:52Flowers at 6,900 as well. I mean, Jacob, $8,400 Henry. But what what is your Okay. How much what odds would you have

31:00to be given to be a market maker for Derrick Henry not to score a touchdown in this game? Like like 1 to 10 or

31:07something? Like isn't isn't he just literally starting the game with a rush with a rushing touchdown?

31:14>> Yes. Yes, he is. He starts with one and the question is whether he gets two or three or four. Um yeah, he's he's in a

31:22great spot here. He's he's I mean he's obviously played the Titans since he got to Baltimore, right? This isn't like >> first time.

31:28>> Really?

31:29>> Yeah. Correct. Yeah. It's uh it's like a it's like a big He he talked about it yesterday. Uh there was a vir there was

31:35like a viral clip going around of like Yeah, the Titans they said they didn't really want me, you know, which is uh

31:42Yeah. But he has not played them yet.

31:43>> Wow. Okay. Then then he's gonna get four touchdowns.

31:47>> He's gonna get four touchdowns. I I have never played I frankly I like >> I have never I've never really been a

31:55Henry guy anyways which actually makes no sense because he is like a like a 19 ras freak of me. It doesn't make any

32:02sense. I really should be a Henry guy.

32:04I've never been a chalk Henry guy. I've never played him at 8,000. I certainly have never played him at 8,000 draft

32:10kicks dollars before. I've certainly never played him at 8,400. I I He's just going to stick it to the Titans this

32:17week. It's going to be unbelievable how many points he's going to score.

32:20>> I've been a Henry guy. I I'm usually like a Henry when he's not that owned guy. I usually don't play him when he is

32:26owned and he'll be owned this week. But I'm I'm tempted by the Titans narrative for sure.

32:32>> Yeah.

32:32>> Even though I should say >> typically the Titans are pass funnel.

32:36You typically want to play >> um quarterbacks and receivers against them, not running backs. But I mean, I do think that they're going to find a

32:45way to get get the big dog involved. Zay Flowers uh will be owned at 16900. Quite owned at 1,600. Um that's fine. Smash

32:54matchup. Um >> he is currently over nine yards for Rut run.

32:59>> Would you play >> I have no problem with that.

33:01>> I don't think I would.

33:04>> I I I would be open to playing them together. I'll I'll say that. I'm not like going to commit to that ahead of

33:09the fact. And I don't I don't play, like I said, I played four lineups last week.

33:12That's kind of what I've been playing this week is like a hand or this year is like a handful of lineups at like the

33:17mid to higher dollar range. Um, so I'm open to it. I would I would bet that I have one of them in most of my lineups.

33:28>> I think >> I definitely have some Henry lineups.

33:30Lineups that don't have Henry probably will have Z.

33:32>> Yeah. I mean, obviously the concern here is like the Titans are just going to do zero pushing. Like Cam Ward sucks. Cam

33:39Ward can't play. He's getting worse.

33:42Like Ward Ward is getting worse. There was a quote this week that um Dable had which is uh or or was it it wasn't Dable

33:51it was uh Robert Salah of saying he's getting PTSD like because he's just getting >> hammered in the pocket. I mean there was

33:59a clip going around there was a clip going around of him like literally just standing just standing in the pocket and

34:06it's just like I don't know man. and they're like not targeting Carnell Tate down the field at all, which is like the

34:12thing he was good at at Ohio State. I don't know. It's just it's all a mess.

34:15The Titans stuff is a is a huge huge huge mess. I'm I'm out. I'm out. I I'm not feeling good uh about this at all.

34:23Uh all right, the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to play at the Cincinnati Bengals. 51 and a half point total here.

34:30Chase Burrow, Lawrence, Chase Brown, PE Wash. I mean, PEW brother, it's all it's always Parker Washington. There's always money in the Parker Washington stand.

34:40>> Yeah, I'm super into PE Wash. Um, and then I think the interesting thing about this game is that we're going to see a

34:47lot of projected ownership on Chase Brown. Um, and I'm interested to see how much he actually gets played. The receiving role has been worse this year,

34:57but I don't know if it's worse like in a systemic fashion. It feels like it's worse in a this is what can happen in a

35:02three-game sample fashion. Although I I guess the one reason why it might be systemic is that typically if you do go

35:08under center more, which they've been trying to emphasize, you're going to throw the running back less usually than if you're playing out of shotgun. So

35:14that that might be an issue.

35:16>> Um but he he was like a borderline first round reddraft pick who is now all the way down to 6,100 and so he's going to

35:25get a ton of play. I I mean it's not a good matchup. You you really don't want to start running backs against the

35:31Jaguars. I prefer Love over him decisively. So, I'm probably going to be mostly fading Chase Brown this week. And

35:40then I'm really excited to play the other Bengals. Um I mean, they're going to be owned too. like there's there's nowhere to hide this week at all with

35:50the Cincinnati Bengals. But like it's more interesting at least I think to play a very heavily owned T or Chase if

35:58at least doing so is leveraging off of their very heavily owned teammate. Um so I'm I'm probably open-minded to playing the Bengals receivers this week for

36:08sure. And then I'm I'm yeah I'm I'm really into the Jags. And then I guess the the best leverage play off of Chase

36:13Brown. And who would be my gold star play this week would be Bashel Tutin. He saw 21 of the team >> Wow.

36:23>> I love it.

36:24>> He saw 21 of the team's first 28 snaps last week. Ended up with a under 50% snap share because he didn't play the

36:30two-minute drill, which is a real issue.

36:33Um and then he got those we were sweating it on shipcast. He got the first two touches of the second half

36:38drive. He sat the rest of that drive.

36:39That drive was 13 plays. Um and he sat the rest of that drive probably due to a minor injury that the broadcast had

36:46noted or kind of looked at him on the sideline and then he came back, he played he was healthy and then he also

36:50set the last drive when Amir Abdul was just running out the clock at a 29 point game. So his overall snap rate appears

36:57not to have progressed but in the first half his role was very very meaningfully improved from previous weeks. I'm buying if that's the role we're getting this

37:05week. I think we're going to see 65 to 70% snaps for Bashel Tutin. Um he saw in that first half stretch he saw 21 of 26

37:16non third down two-minute drill snaps.

37:18Abdullah and Chris Rodriguez were barely playing. I I expect him to basically have that role this week and he looks like a budding superstar to me on film.

37:28Um he gets the better matchup than Chase Brown. He's a lower cost of Chase Brown.

37:32is going to be way less owned than Chase Brown in this game. I I think he's a great play. So, I'll I'll play a lot of

37:38Tutin this week and I'm happy to eat some of the ownership coming back with either Higgins or Chase.

37:43>> I love it. I've been looking for a reason to move Toutin up more in in my stuff. I mean, the big deal with Toutin

37:50right now that is frustrating is they're playing four running backs. My guess is in more serious games, the Amir Abdullah stuff is going to be cut out. I also

37:59think in more serious games we are going to see Chris Rodriguez's role uh diminish a little bit like in games that

38:06the Jaguars really want to win. Uh we we'll see if that is true or not.

38:11One thing to note about Chase Brown as uber chalk here, the Jaguars run defense is no joke. It is like a like top tier

38:19A1 some of the best passfunnel tiles type stuff like we've ever seen. It it really is that good. which is bad for

38:28most running backs. Maybe not that bad for Chase Brown, though. Chase Brown historically, like kind of CMC, his best usage has been as a passcatching guy.

38:37The deal with Chase Brown is he's just had this miserable schedule to start the year. Uh this is more of a miserable

38:42schedule. Like, this is is tough for him. Although, I mean, I do think we all know the deal with Chase Brown, which is

38:46that he can, you know, Joe Burrow can just get him two touchdowns. And uh although Perine does continue getting some of the green zone touches, which

38:54has always been uh a sort of frustrating thing if you've been a Chase Brown guy, I agree with you that I am a Jeremiah

39:02Love over Chase Brown guy. So that is going to leave me a little bit uh exposed to the uh to the field there.

39:10and and Chase. Weirdly enough, I actually don't think Chase will end up being that owned because my sense is that the field wants to play JSN. I

39:21actually think I think and and Puka being eligible is also going to siphon off. He's $600 on DraftKings, more expensive than Puka. I bet Chase ends up

39:29more like 15% than 22% projected on.

39:32That would be that would be my guess.

39:36>> Yeah. How How old is Higgins gonna be? I think he might be a decent fit.

39:41>> Higgins will Higgins he will end up being the the like the the the lineup that builds itself is Trevor Lawrence,

39:47Parker Washington, T. Higgins bring back. That's the that ends up being the chalk uh in this game instead of Jamar Chase.

39:53>> I think he actually winds up more than Chase. Yeah, >> I I will >> I think Chase I think it'll go Chase

39:58Brown then T. Higgins then Jamar Chase in terms of Bengals ownership. And I would say my desire to play the Bengals

40:05goes T. Higgins, then Jamar Chase, then Chase Brown. Um I I mean I think Chase Brown's totally fine play. Obviously, I'm not saying

40:15like you can't play him against the Bengals. Like he's going to be a bust.

40:18It's just like he's going to be so I think he's going to be so much more owned than Jeremiah Love. And I think

40:24he's just a straightup worse play than Jeremiah Love. And I also have one of my favorite plays in that price range is

40:30the running back who kind of leverages directly off of him. So I I'm I'm pretty pumped about kind of the opportunities

40:36presented to not play Chase Brown, but he's obviously a totally fine play.

40:40>> Yes. Yeah. Uh I agree. All right. The Dallas Cowboys traveling to play at the Houston Texans. Uh Nico Collins sounds

40:47like he is going to play this week. Good matchup for him against the Dallas Cowboys.

40:53>> Probably I've been playing Javante. um in in these spots like I just don't think you have to do it this week. I

41:01think his price has risen to the point where he seems like a marginal play. Uh definitely not into David Montgomery, but curious your thoughts on Lamb and

41:11Pickkins in a difficult matchup in a spot where they probably will not get played too much.

41:18>> Yeah, I'm I'm fine with playing Lamb or Pickkins. Um I think probably Like I don't know. I'll have to listen

41:27to people who like watch defensive matchups more closely than I do. But my kind of outside observer guess is that Stingley will actually play more on

41:38Pickkins just because he's like the less moved around wide receiver and I think he's kind of the easier one to shadow

41:45just from how you orient your defense.

41:48And then they'll probably like place kind of safety help and stuff over Lamb.

41:53But I don't know, maybe they'll maybe they'll try Lacader on Pickkins since he's a little bit more physical and then they'll use Stingley over Lamb since he

41:59has more athletic ability.

42:00>> I think Stingley versus Pickins just feels like the right way to do it. That just feels like what I would do if I was

42:06the defensive coordinator. Um doesn't doesn't mean that's what they'll do, but that's my guess, >> right? That's that's kind of what I

42:11would do. I would I would say like dedicate safety help to Lamb as much as possible and then you isolate Stingley

42:17on on Pickkins. Like that's kind of how I would make the most sense to me, but I'm interested. Um, I think regardless,

42:23these guys are going to have opportunities and I'm I think that they're always fine plays and like both of them are guys where I don't really do

42:32the aren't you worried like I'm I'm open to playing them and if there's reasons why their ownership would be depressed, I'm fine with that, especially indoor

42:38game. Um, I think that Houston's offense is going to look a lot better with Nico Collins. Um, he's to me like a very

42:45clear-cut top 10 wide receiver in the league. He's very clearly the best player on this offense and they have horrendous pass catchers around him. Um

42:53I don't think that it's that surprising that they went from looking like a very competent offense in week one against Buffalo where they put up 31 points to

43:00looking completely unable to move the ball when you take Nico Collins out of the equation. I expect a much better Texans attack this week. Um so I'm I'm

43:09definitely into playing Nico um for sure. I I I don't know. I don't know if I would get to Stra, but I don't even

43:16think he'd be like a crazy play. I think he's actually played pretty decently individually this year. Um, and then like Schultz you can't play. I think

43:24he's a fine managed play even with Collins back, but his price is so inflated from the weeks that he played without Collins that he's off the table.

43:31So I think it's Collins is the only play on Houston. You definitely can't play the running backs. And then for sure

43:36Dallas like the three main guys are all fine. I I don't know. Probably my favorite play in this game is Collins.

43:44>> Man, I think Pickkins at 6,300. I first off, I don't think he'll get to 10%. I think he'll be more like 8%. I mean,

43:51like he like we know there will be a Pickins explosion game coming. Like I haven't looked at the uh the buy Leone

43:58model or whatever it this week, but I'm going to guess George Pickins is coming close to being on the by Leone model.

44:04>> And when the Pickkins explosion comes, I mean, you want to be on the Pickins at 8%, not at uh not at 27% or whatever. I

44:13I'm that might be one of my IKB plays this week where I'm just like, man, you just don't get these spots on George

44:18Pickkins all that much. And and the the Texans defense for as vaunted as they have been, I mean, not not good results

44:24for them through through three weeks. I mean, they've been fine, but they it has this has not been playing like the steel

44:30curtain or whatever, >> right? That's that's that's very true.

44:33Yeah, they they still get pressure. I mean, they were wrecked in the game last week, but obviously it's not like the

44:37Colts or the Dallas Cowboys. Um, and their secondary has not been like that imposing. They've given up big plays.

44:44>> All right, the a game that's actually very important to figure out. The New York Jets traveling to play at the

44:49Chicago Bears. So, we don't have Bree Hall in this game. It's going to be Brillin Allen starting at running back.

44:55Uh, Isaiah Davis was active last week.

44:58Did not get a snap on offense. That was I I assumed it was like an Ali Gordon Jaylen Wright situation where he just

45:04was not playing last week. No, >> because we've seen this situation in the past where Bree has missed Braille and Allen has been chalk and then Isaiah

45:10Davis Kool-Aid manned the situation.

45:13Maybe Isaiah Davis fell out of favor at some point over the course of this off season with his coaching staff. I don't

45:18know. Then we also got Luther Burton 11 targets with Case Keenum at quarterback last week, including a very cool designed play where he scored a

45:27touchdown. And um I mean the most unfortunate thing I'm going to have to say to you of all time, which is that

45:34Khif Raymond is projecting as the best points per dollar wide receiver um on the slate.

45:43I I don't know, man. I don't you you got to I got to go pee. So you have you have 45 seconds to tell people about Raymond.

45:52>> Khalif Raymond.

45:54Can I just sit here in silence? Um, I have nothing to say about Khalif Raymond. He disgusts me. Uh, if you want

46:03to play him, be my guest. You probably should. He projects great. You should probably play Khalif Raymond. I'll probably be stubborn and refuse to play

46:11Khif Raymond, but he he objectively is a great play. Uh, Luther Burton, I think, is also objectively a great play. He's

46:18probably the only one of the the three real players on the Bears that we all drafted this year that I actually have

46:25any interest in playing.

46:27Um um DeAndre Swift I certainly have interest in playing. It would be Swift and Burden and I guess Raymond is obviously fine. Then on the Jet side,

46:37I'm expecting AD Mitchell to miss. Um I see he's projected in but he was referred to as week to week. So I'm

46:42expecting it to be the same group of pass catchers as last week but with Brilan Allen in place of Bree Hall. Um

46:51and Brilen Allen pro probably a pretty good play this week. He has his whole life ahead of him. Let's say you you've

46:58always been the the Brilan Allen guy. Um 5200 here in a good matchup, but there aren't a lot of running backs in the

47:05like 6K range, kind of a tier above him, that are going to draw ownership off of him. How how excited are you to play

47:11Brilan Allen?

47:13>> Insanely excited. This is the matchup you want, right? You want a close You want a close game, a bad defense, the

47:21Bears playing their backup quarterback.

47:22If Caleb was starting this game, I'd probably be a little bit less hesitant because I think they could like legitimately get blown out if Caleb was

47:28starting in this game. But with Menting, I think I mean that's obviously the reason why the spread is so close. Also,

47:34I mean, we got to just say like >> our I believe this is a belief that you and I held in the offseason that many

47:40people were were laughing at. But we we retained the Gino trutherism. We said, "Hey, man, that Raider situation that was untenable for anyone. Anyone would

47:49have looked bad back there." And Gino is I mean you even see this in games where he plays well. He's just so sensitive to

47:55pressure that sometimes in these third down spots he's dead. There's just nothing he can do and like the Jets are going to punt and it is what it is. Um

48:04but Gino has the the the Jets offense. I mean I wouldn't say cooking. He has them he has them on a low simmer. You know

48:10when you've like okay like I diced my onions. I'm caramelizing them. Like you're not cooking. You can leave. You know you can go you can look at your

48:17phone for a little bit. you can let the onions sit there and caramelize like Gino is caramelizing the onions for uh

48:22for the New York Jets. So, I feel great about Garrett Wilson. I feel great about Braille Allen. I feel great about Kenyan

48:29Sadi because I think Sadiq was so good last week that not even Frank Reich and Eric Glenn can put that genie back in

48:37the bottle. He had a 55% route rate last week. He did leave after he scored the touchdown for an injury check, so he

48:44missed a drive, but he's fine. uh he was listed on Wednesday as limited at a practice, but I would imagine he gets a

48:5065 70% route share this week uh for for the Jets and I mean he he did get priced way up, but Gino doubles were I mean uh

49:00instrumental for winning money last week in DFS and I I think you can run them back this week as well.

49:07>> Uh yeah, I completely agree with that. I I do think the Gino indoors outdoor splits are maybe something to to take

49:15into consideration. One of the reasons I I was just hammering him. I put him in in literally every lineup last week was

49:21was the was the indoor Gino narrative.

49:24Um but I I'm still a little into him this week. I I don't know if I'll do as much like every single lineup has Gino

49:32Smith in it this week. That was probably a little bit of a one oneoff for me, but I'll probably play at least one Gino

49:38lineup. I'll definitely play a Garrett lineup. I'll definitely play a Brillin lineup. I'll definitely play a Sadi lineup. Um, and so maybe I'll do one

49:44full Jet Stack. We'll see. Um, this game is like actually really fun for uh for for a game that's being played between

49:51Case Keenum and Gino Smith. Um, like there's a lot of plays in this game. I I can see at least six skill players that

49:57I want to play. At least >> it is going to be it is going to be I think like everyone still has Kanum

50:03Project, but I do think Beeent is going to start. I don't know.

50:05>> That would be crazy. I think that's I mean I it's not been confirmed. That's my guess though because >> wow Ben Johnson

50:13>> I guess Beent I'm much less into the Bears.

50:16>> Okay. Beent or uh uh Ben Johnson said something after the game like you know Case played well or whatever but there's

50:22a regent Beant is the number two quarterback.

50:24>> Um we'll see you know I mean there's there's a lot of time for for the team to to change their mind or whatever. My

50:31interest in Burden and Raymond would decline with with Tyson Beant. My >> I think my my interest in Burden would remain the same because Beent is he is a

50:43point and I mean he he's I mean probably worse than Case Kan but he's a point and clicker. I mean Beent is a point and

50:48clicker. why that's why Bears fans liked him so much in contrast to Justin Fields is Fields is like the least point and

50:57clicker of all time, but Bean is a great point I mean he's a fine point and clicker. Um probably better at pointing

51:03and clicking than Caleb Williams.

51:04Although I mean this is such tired discourse, but everyone knows the reason why the offense looks different when Caleb Williams is in there versus his

51:10backups is you the the reason the thing that makes Caleb so special is what he does offscript. And that's the thing

51:16that Ben Johnson doesn't have control of. And it's why you're going to win more games with Caleb Williams, but it's also why the offense is going to be less

51:24predictable and and and in some ways a little bit less fantasy friendly when Caleb Williams is playing quarterback.

51:30>> Yeah, >> I'm I'm in on Burden regardless though.

51:34Both both ways uh I am in on uh I'm in on Luther Burton. Um, and then let's go ahead and move to the Miami Dolphins and

51:45the Minnesota Vikings.

51:48I mean, if Justin Jefferson doesn't play, you got to figure out what you're doing with chalk Jordan. I mean, would you have interest in $5,300 Jordan

51:57Addison would know Justin Jefferson and Kyler Murray playing as his quarterback?

52:02I make it a point to not um have a ton of interest in like shock mid-tier wide receivers.

52:12>> Yeah.

52:12>> Um that's like like obviously it'd be a great play, but just feel like you're usually not on the right side of history if

52:21you're getting on like really chalky mid-tier wide receivers. Um, like usually it's like one thing to get on the chalk puka, you know, like if he's

52:30in like a particularly great spot and it's another thing if the cost is so low that you don't need that high of a

52:35threshold that I would probably find other ways to do that. I guess it would depend how high the ownership gets. I'm

52:40I'm not sure. Like if we're talking mega mega shock, probably out on that. Um, definitely out on Aaron Jones. Um, he's

52:49going to come with a ton of ownership.

52:50He should. I get it. got a great role, but like talking about like 32-y old Aaron Jones at the exact same price range as round

53:01one, two turn reddraft pick Chase Brown and third overall pick Jeremiah Love and they're all in like comparable price range, comparable spot. Jones is the

53:12best matchup, but like just if they have comparable ownership and I don't even think they will. I think Jones might actually be the most owned of them. Him

53:20or Brown, like Jones just seems like obviously the worst play of those three to be >> obviously the worst play. And and I

53:27think Deon Neil is going to be active for >> for this game.

53:31>> I think >> so. I'm I'm fascinated to see what the ownership comes in on because algorithmically it's being projected right now Jones and Brown ahead of Love

53:39and I think that is not so. So yeah, I'll be out on that. Um I'll be playing Love ahead of Jones. The Dolphins guys I

53:48think we should talk about, but I don't really think that they're DFS viable. I think it's more >> conversation. I think Malik I think

53:54Malik Washington is is a little viable actually at at 4,400.

53:59>> He got three snaps as just straight up a running back last week.

54:03>> I don't think he's going to get those this week. Those those will just go to jail right?

54:07>> I don't know, man. I don't know. I'm kind of I I gotta I gotta say one of my weird uh dynasty like fascinations has

54:15kind of always been Malik Washington. I think he's a horrible structural fit with Malik Willis, but I think this is kind of an interesting spot. This is

54:22also just a a game that people are going to spend all week thinking about because it's like the Survivor game of like what

54:28do you do? Can Kyler Murray blow this game? He absolutely can uh against the Miami Dolphins, but the Dolphins are so

54:34bad. You know, another interesting thing in this game is that Jawan Jennings has been god awful as a member of the

54:39Minnesota Vikings, but as leverage off of $3,600 Khif Raymond in a nut matchup with probably no Justin Jefferson. I I

54:48am a smidgen smidgen interested. A guy I have zero interest in is TJ Hawinson.

54:54I'm not doing it. I I won't I refuse. I refuse. He He projected well last week.

55:00I said I'm not doing it. Uh I'd rather play Kenyan Sadi. I'm doing I and I would rather play I'd rather play Higgby

55:08um than than Hawinson, I think, given the even even with all the questions about Higgy's usage this week.

55:16>> Yeah, I won't be I won't be playing TJ Hawinson probably.

55:18>> Let's talk about the Dolphins backfield though. What are what are kind of your expectations? Ali Gordon, Jaylen Riot, Jerz Hunter. What What do you think this

55:25is going to look like?

55:26>> So, I don't think like I said, I don't think that it's a DFS question. I think it's a manage league question. um

55:32because I don't think any of them are in play for DFS. But first qu the first notable thing is it sounds like John

55:38Wright's going to play. So it sounds like they're you're going to see both these guys this week. Um my I I think it's legitimately 50/50 in

55:47terms of like who is the lead back and the answer might be no one. Jaylen Wright was winning the RB2 job in camp.

55:55Like he played ahead of Ollie Gordon in both preseason games. He entered the first game first, although they both ended up playing four snaps. Olly Gordon

56:04entered the second game first, but then Jaylen Wright entered on the same drive and then Jaylen Wright got hurt and then

56:10it was all Ollie Gordon in week three.

56:12So like in terms of if you're tracking, you know, who has been ahead of whom throughout the course of the season,

56:19Jaylen Wright has been ahead of Ollie Gordon more than Ollie Gordon has been ahead of Jaylen Wright. Um, did Ollie Gordon do anything last week to change

56:27that? like maybe I I thought he looked fine, but he still averaged like 2.4 yards per carry. So, I don't I don't

56:33know if it was like some incredible performance. The reason I've preferred Ali like between the two from managed leagues is that I think if Jaylen Wright

56:41is the lead, it still has to be a split because he's just never really carried the load. He's like a speedback. Um he

56:47split with Dylan Samson at Tennessee.

56:50He is not an obvious passing downs back and he's not an obvious goal lineback whereas Ollie Gordon like has more of

56:57the high value touch profile. He's a better receiving back than Jaylen Wright and he's a better power back at the goal

57:02line than Jayen Wright. And so I think there's at least some world in which Ollie Gordon is getting all the touches

57:07because he has that touch consolidating workhorse profile dating back to college. And then if it's a split, I think he's getting the highv value

57:15touches even if Jaylen Wright gets more touches. But like from a DFS perspective, I'm expecting a split. I expect it to be highly uncertain and I

57:26can't imagine getting in on these guys, especially when you can just play like Brilland Allen who's going to have his whole backfield ahead of him.

57:33>> His whole backfield ahead of him. I agree. And like Peter made this point on the SW cast which is DraftKings and

57:40FanDuel should have done a better job.

57:41These guys should be minimum salary.

57:43Olly Gordon and Jayen Wright should be dead minimum salary at the running back position. Make us think about it. Make us debate, do I want to play Tyler

57:51Higgby or do I want to play Olly Gordon?

57:53Who has a better chance of scoring a touchdown? Who has a better chance of catching four passes? You know, but it

57:57there's there's just absolutely no discussion with them at at these prices.

58:01like they're just they're completely um they're completely unplayable uh at at this spot. I'm with you on the Aaron Jones stuff. I prefer Jeremiah Love to

58:11him. So, I just am going to have less Aaron Jones than the Field, I imagine.

58:16The Los Angeles Chargers traveling to play at the Seattle Seahawks. JSN is 9,100 DraftKings dollars coming in at around 13% projected ownership. Uh I this will

58:27probably be the first week that I don't try and sigh out myself into uh Jadarian Price. He he can't get out of his own

58:34way.

58:35>> He can't He can't get out of his own way. Every time there's been an opportunity for him, he just is has done

58:40a terrible error. Uh Charbanet's practice window, I think, is going to open soon. It's done. It's over. I was wrong about Jarian Price. I actually

58:49don't think I was wrong about how good he is, but I it's definitely just going to not happen in in the usage. It's it's

58:54just not going to happen. So, uh, I apologize everyone. It's not happening for Jarian Price.

59:00>> I'm not 100% sure that it's not happening this year, but I I already have like my preferred hipster indie band running back of the week in Basil

59:09Tutin. So, I don't need to to do the Jarian Price thing this week. Um, who would I play in this game? I would

59:17play Jackson Smith and Jigba. And I would play AJ Barner.

59:22That would be the extent of my play. I wouldn't even play AJ Barner, man.

59:26>> Oh, I I would I would go back to the Ladwell. I'm willing to do that. I'm f I'm happy to go back to the Ladwell.

59:32>> Would you?

59:33>> Yeah, I I I'm I'm I'm in on that. His role was so good week. Yeah, his role is really >> His role was so good week one. I I know

59:41that I like I made him uh a gold star play last week and he didn't do that much. Um but I I do still think he is

59:50their pretty clear wide receiver one. I I I'm I'm I'm willing to go back to that one again. I think like I I don't know.

59:57He's he's he doesn't actually project that well at all. He'll he'll be a guy that based on kind of what I saw week

60:03one, I'm probably just going to like bump him a point in projections each week and and then see if he comes up.

60:10But I I do think he's still in play.

60:14>> Yeah. Uh he's in play. I would just say um basically the Chargers to me are in the they're in

60:25like the the the no-go zone. They're just they're just a joke. They're they're a joke, man. They're they're they can't block. They can't run.

60:34Herbert is making like, you know, I mean, it's so funny that Stephen Ruiz sent that tweet out of being like, "Can

60:40someone just like give me some visual evidence of Herbert playing bad?" And then he tosses two of the biggest uh meatball on Hogi subs of all. I mean,

60:49just like the the the second interception was just like >> that's a that's a freaking backup quarterback interception, brother. That is a that is a uh Case Keenum comes into

61:00the game cold, down 10 points, and has to try and make something happen interception. Like it it is really really bad. And you know, of

61:09course, Harbaugh is like doing bits at the press conferences being like, I thought everyone did great. I thought everyone, you know, maximalized their

61:16full existences. I thought the interior running game was a It's just like, shut up. Shut up. All of you shut up.

61:22McDaniel, get your Capri off, dude. Can you Can we Can we engineer a solution to get four and a half yards per play on

61:29offense? Because apparently the answer is no. Uh your your boy Trey Harris is kind of happening, though. How about that? That That's a thing you could

61:35point to. It's very tilting because I I I wrote about this in in Dynasty Corner this week, but basically I was like I I

61:44I moved Quinton Johnston down which gave me great pleasure. Um but I was like it's unfortunate that I could only half

61:53victory lap this take. um which is that Quinton Johnson sucks, but I can't do the full victory lap, which would be if

61:59Quinton Johnston was unstartable, but Trey Harris was an every week starter because like the assumption by the market was was wrong in two ways, right?

62:09The assumption was a that Quinton Johnson is good at football, but also that there would be two Chargers pass catchers worth drafting in the first

62:18seven rounds. And that is completely incorrect. So even though even though I do appear to have been correct in terms of which charger was the second best

62:26charging p charger pass catcher, it does not matter because Labakoni is the only charger pass catcher that is borderline startable and he's not even really that

62:36startable. So um it's it's just uh well no he's definitely startable. Um I guess he's borderline DFS playable, but yeah, it's just it's really rough for for the

62:48Los Angeles Chargers. Um, I like tried to think about making a case for the Chargers lead running back at $4,300, but I think that

62:57that's too cute.

63:01>> It like again, if he was if I could maybe see it in a better matchup like if they were playing the Raiders or

63:08something um or if they were playing >> like whenever I don't know if the Chargers play the Dolphins. I assume they do at some point because the Chiefs

63:14played the Dolphins. Sure. Then you could play Katon that week. Um, I would I would I certainly would not um be

63:20tempted to play Amari and Hampton in in any format. I mean, I have Amari and Hampton in the Spite Man and I I am

63:28thinking about potentially benching him for Pat Fri. Um, >> yeah, it's it is Jover.

63:34>> It's like actually >> I have two different teams in the main event that have a a running back room of

63:41Reese Hall and a Marian Hampton that was just like getting shot and then getting stabbed.

63:47over the course of the day. It's like, wow, how did this get so much worse?

63:52>> I don't I don't like as someone who was lower than Hampton on consensus, both as a prospect and in baseball, I didn't

64:00ever imagine it getting bad like this. I I thought the bad >> I thought the bad would be okay. Like, he's basically David Montgomery but on a

64:08good team. I didn't think he was gonna be I didn't I didn't think he was going to be David Montgomery on a bad team

64:15with with Ke with the role of Woody Marks being played by a really really good version of Woody Marks, >> right? I mean the

64:23I I the reason why I was never fully out on Hampton despite never really believing in him as a talent. I was like

64:28I still feel like the worst case is he's gonna like be Melvin Gordon or Joe Mixon. going to be a running back that

64:33we all kind of agree is bad, but he's going to like >> grind his way to being a low-end RB1.

64:40This was not in the cards for me. I'm I'm pretty stunned by it. Uh I I wrote this week um that basically the roles in

64:49the Chargers backfield are the same as the roles in the Denver backfield. So like Katon Mitchell is in the RJ Harvey

64:56role, Omaran Hampton is in the JK Dobbins role, and uh Keani Vadell is in the Tyler Bedet role. And like you

65:06didn't you didn't think you were drafting JK Dobbins on a bad team in round two, but he he's literally JK Dobbins.

65:14>> He's literally JK Dobbins. Yeah, he's literally JK Dobbins. H so so bad. I mean, speaking of I guess we'll get to

65:20that game. Uh the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to play uh the Las Vegas Raiders. I mean just your weekly uh Kenneth Walker is like the second or

65:29third best player in fantasy football.

65:30He'll be chalking it this week.

65:32>> I will be playing a lot of Kenneth Walker this week. The the interesting thing is is at Mahomes 6500. We did see

65:41uh the haters in some way being correct last week wherein the team just shut it down. They didn't throw the ball at all

65:47really in the second half. They did a Kelsey touchdown, but they kind of just around in the second half. Um, Kelsey at 60 or Mahomes at 6500 projects

65:56pretty good, but does he not have the same mega ceiling of like a Perie or an Allen or a Burrow or a Lawrence just

66:05because the team does seem pretty comfortable to just chill in the second half of games. Although the three and0 Las Vegas Raiders, maybe the Raiders

66:12push them and we do get 45 dropbacks for Mahomes here.

66:19potentially.

66:20>> Yeah, I uh I think it's it's possible.

66:22The the pass rate has definitely gone up. It was interesting this week, too.

66:26They actually did pass more to Rishi Rice specifically. And I think if you're a Rice believer, the the best narrative for that is that they played two very

66:34manheavy defenses in the first two weeks. They got a zone heavy defense um last week. And then Rice, you know, who

66:41who of course much better against zone than man, uh ends up getting targeted a lot more. Do you like have offh hand the

66:47Raiders zone man splits? I haven't gotten a chance to look this up yet in the week. It's It's Thursday morning.

66:52>> I don't What I would say is that I don't think Kansas City themsself cares that much about that. Like I think they're

67:01happy to the I'll say the biggest difference for Rice and Worthy and Kelsey is they're not doing the RPO stuff anymore. The RPO stuff was what

67:12Rice was absolutely eating off of. I actually saw a pretty good Twitter thread about this basically just being like >> maybe Mahomes just is bad at RPO. Maybe

67:21he's maybe he's just like his brain doesn't do it right. He obviously didn't do very much but in college. Maybe he

67:26just doesn't like it. And that's the big that's been the biggest change from the enemy and Naggie is just like almost a

67:31total elimination of actually you saw them [ __ ] it up in week one or or was that the Colts game? They had an RPO and

67:39they [ __ ] it up. Um, so like I just think I just think they're they're uh just not really doing it anymore, which

67:45is pretty bad for for Rashi. Um, I don't know the zone verse man stuff. I mean, frankly, Worthy is just going to do the

67:53same thing every week. He's going to have about he's gonna have about six targets and maybe he'll score a touchdown or maybe he won't.

67:59>> Well, the big the big plus on Rice and the negative on Worthy I think from last week was that they stopped using Worthy

68:04on the screens like on the short area stuff. They gave that to Rice, which makes sense. like I've been hard on

68:09Rice, but he's way better at that stuff than Savior Worthy is. Um, and I I'm I'm guessing the first two weeks were kind

68:16of like we're working Rice off the knee.

68:19Let's give Worthy a chance to do some of this stuff. And he fell right on his face. And so then they gave Rice a

68:25chance and he did well on that stuff. So I think that um that that probably is going to hold. Um I I'm still not very

68:33interested in playing Rice. He's going to be owned this week. Uh I I guess like I I guess for a lot of people it's like

68:39their priors was more of what we saw last week and then we we eventually saw it and so they're kind of projecting

68:44that forward. I'm still of the mindset that I I was not expecting a whole lot from him this year. I'm kind of still

68:50viewing the first three weeks in concert and I'm not like waiting the third week that much higher than the average of the

68:56whole. So, I'm probably not very interested in playing a $6,400 Rashid Rice like at actual ownership. Um, I I would be definitely happy to play

69:07Patrick Mahomes. Um, and I I'm like especially in like the smaller dollar stuff. I I'm completely content to just play like Mahomes and Walker and not

69:18have to guess between Rice and Kelsey and Worthy. Like I'm I'm happy to just do that and I'll let other people decide where the

69:27touchdowns go between Rice and Kelsey and Worthy cuz like like we saw last week. No, I guess Mahomes wasn't a smash

69:32last week cuz they scored only 24 points. But like I think there will be a lot of weeks where one of Rice or Kelsey gets the bulk of

69:41the volume, but the other one gets the touchdown and then Worthy gets a random play or Thornton gets a random big play

69:47or like the touchdown goes to Jaylen Royals like it did in the Colts game.

69:51Like I don't I don't I think it's completely possible that Mahomes has a good game and Walker has a good game,

69:57but you don't need any of the Chiefs pass catchers. I think that'll happen a lot this year.

70:01>> This is historically like if you go back and look, I mean obviously Tyreek and Kelsey were different versions of themselves then. But this would happen

70:08all the time where Mahomes would have these crazy games and Sammy Watkins would score one, Hardman would score one, Noah Gray would score one. You

70:16know, like the the distributions of the touchdowns would kind of just be random.

70:20So, I think it's I think it's totally fine to play Mahomes Walker and then just leave it there, you know. Um, and

70:26Rashi could even have like a 16-point game and not even come close to being optimal in the context of this week

70:32because he's 6,400. The the one who would matter more if he got to 16 points would be worthy because he's 4600. But

70:38even then, you know, I mean, I don't know. Isaiah Williams could maybe match Xavier Worthy uh his performance or whatever. can I I just want Xavier

70:48I mean I'm not going to play him this week because he cost me like $2,000 last week directly. Um so like I'm just going

70:56to make an emotional call there. But I would like Xavier Worthy to just be priced higher so that I stop hearing the

71:02siren song. I like I this Worthy's costing more money I think than any player in in the NFL.

71:09>> Hey hand handshake handshake on that one. You know, the the the issue the issue with Worthy is that he doesn't

71:16really have a calling card because he's not good enough down the field to be a deep threat. That's Thornton. Rice is

71:24kind of like your zone beater, short area spam guy. He's also not really good enough at changing direction to be your

71:33screen guy. Like he can't be like Khalif Raymond or whatever. He just doesn't. So the way they're using him now is just as

71:39like a normal wide receiver one. like they're just like, "Hey, Xavier Worthy, can you just go be Jamar Chase?" And like obviously no, he can't, you know,

71:46like he he's he's unfit to do that. I, you know, I This is obviously one of my most toxic trades. I still kind of believe there's

71:54a player in there somewhere and I just don't I don't know how to access it. I don't know. And I don't think the Chiefs

72:00know how to access it either. Maybe he'll be a second contract guy, you know, like he'll go sign a second contract with some other team and

72:06they'll figure out how to unlock the skills he has.

72:08>> He'll be there. Taquan Thornton.

72:10>> He'll be there. He'll be there. Taquan Thornton. Uh, all right. Final game of the slate. The Denver Broncos traveling to play at the San Francisco 49ers. I

72:18don't think Mike Evans is going to play in this game. That would be my guess. He got carded off with a rib injury, which

72:24means that the 49ers wide receivers are down to Debo Samuel, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing, Cadarl Hodgej, and uh

72:34let's go. Jacob, let's learn a name right now. Who do we think the fifth wide receiver is going to be uh for

72:41>> you've already named Hodge and Watkins, right?

72:44>> Hodge and Watkins. Their their practice.

72:47>> Isn't Cowing the fifth guy?

72:48>> I named Cowing. They're Oh, this is so good man.

72:52>> Oh, right. Oh, yeah. Debo Debo Cowing.

72:55Hodge Watkins.

72:57>> They have four wide receivers on the practice.

72:59>> Didn't they just sign They signed Dante Pettis >> and Brandon Cooks.

73:06They they also have they also have Will Pauling who I actually did kind of like >> Yeah. He uh a Wisconsin guy and then he

73:13went to Notre Dame.

73:14>> Yeah. And then and then Wesley Grimes.

73:17So one of those guys >> this is what separates us from the rest of the ship chasey cast is like the

73:21ability to name the colleges that the worst receivers in the NFL went to.

73:25>> Correct. So, historically, the way that the Shanahan offenses has worked is when one star goes out, the ball just goes even more

73:36to the other stars. However, every once in a while, >> Christian McCaffrey even harder.

73:42>> Every once in a while, you do get a Richie James game, Kendrick Bourne game, frankly, a Dante Pettis game. I mean,

73:49Dante Pettis uh had had that run. It's actually >> bring back Maris Goodwin. Yeah, it's so funny to bring back Dante Pettis, a guy

73:56that Kyle Shanahan literally hated. Like literally like get this guy. We just drafted him in the first round or maybe the second round. He was awesome for

74:04four games and then we just cut him. Uh like hated this guy but is in such dire straits they have to bring him back. Um

74:12I mean Debo is 5600, KD is 5,100.

74:16McAffrey is 7700. One of those three guys has a slate breaker in them. Um, and Debo is the one that is not going to

74:24come with very much ownership, which makes him pretty interesting to me.

74:29>> Yeah, he he is definitely very interesting to me. Um, and then McAffrey is going to be the one that comes with a

74:36ton of ownership and a major reason for that being that there's no Gibbs on the slate, there's no Bejian on the slate,

74:43uh, and there's no Taylor on the slate.

74:46So, it really does like narrow the group of the top running back plays um at at that elite price point to him and

74:55Walker. Um and most people I think are going to have one of those guys in their lineups. So, that's kind of like

75:01McAffrey has been a guy I've really liked the last two weeks uh because I his ownership has been shielded by those

75:07other big names. Now, he's kind of on his own. He's in a big spot. He's going to be super owned. I I still quite like

75:14him as a play. I like Walker more. Um, and then KD's going to be owned a lot, too.

75:22And that one's a bit interesting because Bowowers and McBride are both on the slate. Um, and there's kind of some other spendown stuff, but like there's

75:29there's that less obvious uh, you know, Dalton Schultz without Nico Collins, Mark Andrews without Z Flowers, Michael Mayer without Brock Bowers. Like most of the early season

75:39there's been very, very obvious cheap tight ends in a way where there isn't this week. So I think we'll see a lot

75:44more KD. I agree if anyone gets squeezed it's Debo relative to the other two and then he probably becomes the most

75:51interesting to me. But I I I mean every every San Fran guy is a really strong play here. Uh, I'm curious

75:59if you have any other thoughts on like how how you would rank McCaffrey relative to my my gut is that I might just want to play

76:09more of the expensive wide receivers on this slate because there's going to be so much there's so many of the top

76:16running backs are off the slate that it's going to push so much of the ownership onto just the two that are

76:20left that I think I would rather play more like Tutin and Jeremiah Love and Brillan Allen and then play more into

76:29the expensive wide receivers because they're mostly other than Almond Raw all on the slate. Like we get Chase and we get Sidi and we get JSN and so I think

76:38you'll get like a little bit better ownership and Puka um on those guys than you can get on CMC and Walker where

76:44there's nowhere to hide.

76:46>> I just don't think CMC is honestly that good of a play. It's like a pretty it's like a pretty brutal matchup. they have

76:52been giving him um like like the workload is good but not 2024 2025 levels. Walker is just clearly a better

77:02play. Henry given the context of the matchup is like for maybe for the first time in my life I prefer Derrick Henry

77:09to McAffrey and you're not getting that much of an ownership discount. Now, if we get to Sunday, uh, and his, uh,

77:16ownership is more like 15% and his optimal rate is, I mean, no way is his optimum rate 40.2%. His optimal rate

77:24will be be more like 30%, but I mean, he might end up just being like a a stone stone smash, then I will go that

77:32direction. I mean the the thing I want to think through a little bit more as we get closer to Sunday is can I play

77:40cowing Watkins or Haj if Evans doesn't play because I really really do not want to play any Khif Raymond. I mean it just

77:49goes against everything that I believe in. And also after last week I'm not that interested in the artist known as Isaiah Williams. 42 routes, three

77:57targets, one catch for Isaiah Williams last week. Uh I I just I would really really like to play uh one of Cowing

78:04Watkins or Hodgej. I I mean Hodgej and Watkins probably like literally can't earn a target in the National Football League to save their lives. Cowing is

78:12maybe sort of like vaguely the shape of interesting. He was a very productive college player. He also weighs about 147 pounds soaking wet. He is from the

78:22Xavier Worthy school of uh of like nutritional uh dependence. So maybe not maybe not great there. But I mean, dude, if you could get the the random Richie

78:31James game at 3100, it would be would be really nice.

78:35>> Totally.

78:38>> Uh, all right. And then I mean, do you want to do you want to play Jaylen Waddle? Are you in? Are you you going

78:42back to your >> I kind of do.

78:44>> Yeah, >> I kind of do want to play Jen.

78:45>> You would.

78:46>> Yeah.

78:48>> Uh, okay. All right. Let's uh let's build a team. Let's build a team. Let's give our let's give our gold star plays

78:54and we can uh we can be out of here.

78:56>> All right. Uh, gold star play. Basel Tuton. Put him in the lineup.

79:01>> All right. Gold star play, Bashel Tuton.

79:04Um, I mean, frankly, I I guess is is Brilan Allen going to be nonowned enough that I can give him or you know

79:12what, I'll just I'll just give it for Love. I'll just give it for Love. Love is not going to be chalk enough uh that

79:17that I think that that is going to be disqualifying. Um, and I don't think actually I don't think Brilan and Love

79:24will get played together too much. I think the Henry Walker ownership will be high enough that you'll get those two >> not together. Um,

79:34>> yeah, I think you'll get a ton of I think the the most typical lineup this week I think will be a three running

79:40back lineup and it'll either be like two of Walker, um, McCaffrey and

79:50uh, Henry with one of Chase Brown or Aaron Jones.

79:56or it'll be both of Chase Brown and Aaron Jones with one of Walker, McAffrey, and Henry. I I think that's what a lot of people will try to do. Um

80:04I think I'm going to do a lot of lineups with three lower priced running backs and try to spend up elsewhere this week.

80:12So you you've already got probably my favorite two here in Tooten and Love. I will also add Brillin Allen to the

80:17lineup here in the flex.

80:19>> Wow. All right. We are having we are having a great time. Um, I'm going to put in Luther Burton III at $5,200 and

80:29uh hopefully alleviate the need to even mention the name Khalifa Freeman one more time uh for ever from this this program.

80:37>> All right. Well, um part of the fun of the three cheap running backs play is we get to spend up. So, I will go ahead and

80:44select uh Mr. Jamar Chase.

80:50>> All right. I love that. We'll do Jamar Chase. Um I will save us a smidgen of money at tight end. And uh you know

80:58what? I am just gonna I am going to pull the Higgby button here. Uh because I don't think I think if if Parkinson

81:05misses, Higgby is just a really really good play. If if Ferguson and Parkinson are out, I I think Higgby is just like a

81:12a really strong play.

81:14>> All right. Um I'm pretty sure we could readjust this after, but I'm kind of reading the the cards. I think we have

81:20more than enough salary to do this. What I was hoping to do is with the three Chief running backs, we get to play

81:23Chase and Jackson Smith and Jigba.

81:26>> All right. And then let's see what we have. Let's check defenses. Um actually fine playing the Jets against Bay Jen. Oh, the C. No, the Cardinals.

81:37>> Yeah.

81:38>> So 5400. That leaves us Kyler Gino.

81:42>> See, do we have anything we can stack off of? We could always change it if um if we want to go more expensive

81:48quarterback. We can take Jamar. We can take JSN out. Um, >> like if we went, >> what if we went um

81:55>> we could do the the super chalk. We could do Bur T.

81:58>> Bur T. What's um >> or what if we do this? What if we do Puka and then we do >> Right. And then we do chase.

82:07>> Chase. Chase.

82:08>> And then we do um Yeah, I like this.

82:11That that works for me.

82:14>> Burrow.

82:14>> Yeah, I I'll do versions of this. Like I I'll obviously messing around with it, but I'll have a lot of versions of this

82:19where it's two expensive receivers.

82:21Either Chase and JSN, Chase and Lamb, Jason Puka, something like that.

82:26>> Yeah, building through this lineup, >> it does really lead me to think that Love and Brilan will be a smidgen

82:35underowned and certainly JSN. JSN is going to be like the number one sim bro of the week because he's more expensive

82:44than Walker. He's more expensive than Henry, but projects significantly better than them and and is not going to get is not going to get played. Um, all right,

82:54man. What is coming up on Thinking about Thinking? Uh, Dynasty Corner, uh, Sunday five. What else? What else do we have?

83:01>> Yeah, we're we're kind of in the cycle right now. So, it's it's basically five posts per week. Three of them are

83:07articles. Um, so the Hitchhiker's Guide comes out midday Tuesday. I do like a little waiver ranking post. After that, we do Dynasty Corner. Um, we kind of do

83:18like a summary of my Dynasty rankings changes along with the posted update on Wednesday. So, all that's out. And then, yeah, no writing today, no writing

83:25tomorrow. I'll have the Sunday five up on Saturday. Just kind of like random musings. Um, I'm planning to write a little bit about hockey in it this week,

83:33honestly. Um, and uh, then yeah, we'll have the long view. We'll record right after this show as we we always do. So,

83:40that'll be up at some point today, very likely, or tomorrow morning at the absolute latest.

83:45>> All right, there you go, everyone. Make sure to like the video. Make sure to subscribe to the channel. Comment down

83:49below if uh Jake and I end up winning the Millionaire Maker. You want to be in there to win uh $10,000 US. And I'll be

83:57back with you guys tomorrow.

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