Fantasy Football with Ian Hartitz
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
43 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
No date
Published
32
Player insights
32
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceAmon-Ra St. BrownBijan RobinsonCeeDee LambChristian McCaffreyDe'Von AchaneGeorge PickensGreg DortchJ.J. McCarthyJa'Marr ChaseJahmyr GibbsJames CookJameson WilliamsJared Goff
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeRole24:06
Ian Hartitz is skeptical about Alec Pierce's ability to step into a larger role following Michael Pittman Jr.'s contract extension. Pierce is currently recovering from March ankle surgery and has missed training camp time, leading Hartitz to worry about his readiness for Week 1 and his ability to serve as a primary field-stretching threat.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveProjection25:47
Ian Hartitz views Amon-Ra St. Brown as a safe, reliable low-end WR1, stating he would be shocked if he finishes outside the top 12. Hartitz dismisses concerns that target share will collapse due to teammates like Jameson Williams or Sam LaPorta, asserting that St. Brown is the system itself and one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeProjection5:46
Ian Hartitz expresses concern that the Falcons will be a bottom-10 scoring offense, noting that Vegas ranks them 25th in scoring. Hartitz points out that over the last decade, only 14 running backs have posted RB1-worthy numbers on a bottom-10 scoring offense, averaging just 1.4 per season. This creates a significant hurdle for Robinson's fantasy ceiling and could limit his touchdown opportunities inside the 5-yard line. Despite this, Hartitz maintains a low concern level (2/10) due to Robinson's elite receiving ability and high floor.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
NegativeValue30:03
Ian Hartitz expresses concern about drafting CeeDee Lamb at 1.09, viewing him as a low-end WR1 rather than a guaranteed overall WR1; Hartitz prefers Saquon Barkley at that draft spot. While acknowledging Lamb as a top-tier receiver, Hartitz notes the target competition gap between him and George Pickens is tighter than expected, and argues that AJ Brown has historically been a better real-life receiver with a higher fantasy ceiling.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage12:27
Ian Hartitz acknowledges a 4/10 concern level due to McCaffrey's age (30) and massive 450-touch workload from last season, noting historical data suggests high-volume backs often see a 3.9 PPR point per game decline. However, Hartitz remains bullish, labeling him a league-winning target at 1.05. Due to injuries across the 49ers' RB depth chart (Isaac Guerendo, Jordan Mason), Hartitz projects McCaffrey to approach 300 carries and clear 100 targets, making him extremely difficult to bust in full PPR formats.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeBust63:57
Ian Hartitz expresses an 8/10 concern level for Devon Achane, citing the Dolphins' offensive struggles, a lack of designed targets, and the negative impact of quarterback pressure and scrambling on running back receiving volume.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveUsage30:10
Ian Hartitz suggests the target competition between George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb is closer than anticipated, noting that Pickens was nearly as productive as Lamb last season and questioning the percentage chance of Pickens seeing more targets or higher production.
Insight pageGreg Dortch
NegativeRole25:48
Ian Hartitz clarifies that any suggestion of Greg Dortch challenging for a starting role is purely a joke.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeDepth Chart31:18
Ian Hartitz is highly critical of J.J. McCarthy's performance, citing poor training camp reports and low yards-per-game metrics as a liability for Vikings receivers. However, Hartitz notes the Vikings are eager to evaluate McCarthy and he could receive an opportunity to start sooner rather than later if Kyler Murray fails to perform.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveProjection8:13
Ian Hartitz has zero concerns regarding Ja'Marr Chase, labeling him the best wide receiver in the NFL in his prime. Hartitz notes that Chase has led the league in targets in back-to-back seasons under the same play caller. While acknowledging that quarterback health (Joe Burrow) is a factor, Hartitz emphasizes that Chase remains a top-tier asset regardless of the backup situation.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection0:36
Ian Hartitz projects Jahmyr Gibbs as a top-five, likely top-three, running back, ranking him ahead of Bijan Robinson (101 vs 102) due to the superior projected quality of the Lions' scoring offense. Hartitz dismisses concerns regarding Gibbs' contract holdout and back injury as temporary, noting that with no backfield competition, Gibbs occupies an elite usage tier alongside Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson. While Gibbs' receiving production spiked significantly when Sam LaPorta was sidelined (12.7 PPR points/game on 7.4 targets vs. 7.4 points/game on 3.9 targets), Hartitz remains confident in his overall outlook.
Insight pageJames Cook
NegativeProjection35:46
Ian Hartitz expresses a 4/10 concern level for James Cook, citing regression risks following a high-touch season and the fact that Josh Allen frequently vultures goal-line opportunities. Cook's touchdown production relies heavily on big plays (league-high four 40+ yard runs), while Allen recorded 13 carries inside the 5-yard line compared to Cook's 14, and 7 carries from the 1-yard line.
Insight pageJameson Williams
NegativeUsage30:03
Ian Hartitz does not believe Jameson Williams possesses the target share upside required to overtake Amon-Ra St. Brown as the primary option in the Lions' offense.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeInjury29:41
Ian Hartitz notes that the Lions' overall offensive outlook is susceptible to a negative impact should Jared Goff suffer an injury.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeUsage61:56
Ian Hartitz uses Javonte Williams as a benchmark for receiving fantasy points per game to illustrate that James Cook's receiving floor has not been as high as desired over the last two seasons.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeProjection16:16
Ian Hartitz expresses significant concern regarding drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba with a top-six overall pick. While he remains a talented player, Hartitz questions if his WR18 finish last year is his new norm or his ceiling, noting that if his production lands between his WR57 rookie finish and his WR18 sophomore finish, he will fail to return value at his current draft position.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeUsage64:05
Ian Hartitz notes the absence of Jaylen Waddle as a factor in the Dolphins' target distribution and offensive outlook.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeInjury9:37
Ian Hartitz mentions Joe Burrow as a comparison for injury-prone status, acknowledging that Burrow has also dealt with significant injuries throughout his career.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeProjection19:30
Ian Hartitz assigns a 6/10 concern level to Jonathan Taylor, questioning his ranking ahead of Saquon Barkley. While Taylor has 2,000-plus total yard and 20-touchdown upside, Hartitz notes the Colts are projected to be a bottom-five scoring offense. Evidence shows a sharp decline in Taylor's performance when the QB situation worsened, dropping from 27 PPR points per game (Weeks 1-10) to 12.6 PPR points per game (RB23) from Weeks 12-18.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeUsage36:46
Josh Allen remains a significant factor in the Bills' red-zone offense, having recorded 13 carries inside the 5-yard line and seven from the 1-yard line last season, which directly limits the touchdown ceiling for teammate James Cook.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection30:48
Ian Hartitz is souring on drafting Justin Jefferson in the first round (1.10) due to a "brutal" Vikings quarterback situation and Vegas projections ranking the offense 20th in scoring. While acknowledging a positive regression case for end-zone targets, Hartitz remains concerned that Jefferson's ADP is too high given the team's offensive outlook and the risk that the passing game could worsen.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeUsage61:56
Ian Hartitz uses Kyren Williams as a benchmark for receiving fantasy points per game to illustrate that James Cook's receiving floor has not been as high as desired over the last two seasons.
Insight pageMalik Willis
NegativeUsage65:25
Ian Hartitz identifies Malik Willis as having the highest scramble rate among qualified quarterbacks at 56%, noting that such high scramble rates often negatively impact the receiving volume of running backs.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeInjury8:53
Ian Hartitz views Matthew Stafford as more injury-prone than other quarterbacks due to his age (38) and history of back issues. Hartitz also notes that Stafford's touchdown rate is likely to regress based on historical trends for high-rate passers, compounded by the fact that many touchdowns in the Rams' offense are directed to Davante Adams-like targets inside the 5-yard line.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeBust8:24
Ian Hartitz assigns a low concern level (2/10) for Puka Nacua, despite acknowledging risks related to quarterback health, offseason rehab, and off-field storylines. Hartitz emphasizes that Nacua's elite talent and high floor—coming off a 129-catch, 1,700-plus yard, 10-touchdown season—make him a reliable asset regardless of the system.
Insight pageRobert Woods
NegativeUsage11:24
Ian Hartitz references Robert Woods' historical usage in the Rams' offense, specifically his involvement in the run game, to highlight the versatility Sean McVay utilizes for his wide receivers.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeUsage1:48
Ian Hartitz notes that Jahmyr Gibbs' receiving production was heavily dependent on Sam LaPorta being out of the lineup last season. Hartitz suggests that a return to full health for LaPorta could lead to a more condensed, wide-open passing game with more mouths to feed, which could potentially impact the receiving upside of other Lions pass-catchers.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeValue24:21
Ian Hartitz prefers Saquon Barkley over CeeDee Lamb at the 1.09 draft position and expresses higher confidence in Barkley compared to Jonathan Taylor, citing the strength of the Eagles' offense. However, Hartitz notes concern for 2025 performance due to a banged-up offensive line and a declining overall scoring environment.
Insight pageTee Higgins
NegativeUsage8:00
Ian Hartitz suggests that a healthy Tee Higgins could potentially squeeze the target share for Ja'Marr Chase, though he maintains low concern for Chase's overall outlook.
Insight pageTy Johnson
PositiveDepth Chart62:33
Ian Hartitz identifies Ty Johnson as a capable receiving back on the Buffalo Bills roster.
Insight pageTyler Warren
NegativeUsage23:54
Ian Hartitz identifies Tyler Warren as an efficient underneath target who operates effectively near the line of scrimmage, though he notes Warren does not stretch the field, which may allow defenses to focus more on stopping the run.
Insight pageTyreek Hill
NegativeUsage64:05
Ian Hartitz notes the absence of Tyreek Hill as a factor in the Dolphins' target distribution and offensive outlook.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Today I'm going over how and why every single round one fantasy football player could completely suck in the year 2026.
0:07Now, I have these guys ranked very highly myself, okay? Obviously, these guys are going round one for a reason, but it's August, okay? We're trying to
0:14predict the future of a sport that features constant 11 on 11 car crashes using a football that, reminder, is not even round in the first place. So,
0:23again, guys are going to be going through each of these first round picks, going through more of a bear half, you
0:28know, glass half empty sort of scenario, but then at the end we'll give kind of an actual realistic one through 10
0:33rating on how severe I do think the risk actually is. So, with that, let's get things started with Mr. 101, Jahmyr
0:40Gibbs. Currently holding out for that new contract. They're saying maybe it could be a back injury, but I have a feeling that back is going to be just
0:48fine. He's going to be doing that wrestling meme sitting out of the wheelchair the second he gets paid a very, very handsome amount. So, again,
0:55assuming that we do have full health for all this, all right, guys? I'm not just going to say the worst case scenario is
1:00Jahmyr Gibbs hurts his knee or something like that.
1:03I think the issue here would be the offensive line just not taking a big step forward, okay? Because quietly, despite Gibbs doing more good things
1:10than not down the stretch of last year, it was really dependent on Sam LaPorta being out of the picture. We talked
1:15about this a lot for Jameson Williams and his splits with and without LaPorta.
1:19The same thing kind of happened with Jahmyr Gibbs, guys. You look at the first 10 weeks or so with Sam LaPorta,
1:23okay? Gibbs only averaging 7.4 PPR points per game from receiving on 3.9 targets per game. After LaPorta was out of the picture, I mean, we're talking
1:32about 12.7 PPR points per game from receiving on 7.4 targets per game. So, massive, massive increase in receiving, which made up for the fact that Gibbs
1:42averaged 3.6 or fewer yards per carry in five of his final six games last season.
1:47So, ETR, shout out Brandon Thorn, fantastic resource for offensive line rankings. He has them as a 13th ranked group. We are seeing Penei Sewell move
1:55over to left tackle. Drew Petzing did a lot of good things in the run game during his time in Arizona. But, again,
2:00if you were trying to go ahead and say how does this season go wrong for Gibbs, it's probably the offensive line being
2:05more average than special, which, let's face it, they have been mostly special during his time there. And it would be the return to health of Sam LaPorta
2:12making this more of a condensed, I should say more of a wide-open passing game with four mouths to feed and accordingly hurting Gibbs upside. Now,
2:20my actual concern level of this happening, it's a one out of 10, guys. If David Montgomery was still in the picture and
2:26we were looking at an actual split at running back, I would be more concerned.
2:29But, man, that's been the only issue with projecting Gibbs in recent years.
2:33It's against guys like CMC. It's against guys like Bijan Robinson, who really had no backfield competition to speak of.
2:39And now Gibbs is in that same boat. So, again, there is a case to be made that all these guys that we're going to go
2:44through could have some bad stuff happen to them this year just like any football player in the NFL. But, in the Gibbs
2:50case, we love the talent. We love the offense.
2:53He's firmly in the prime of his career.
2:55Really do see a hard time, you know, just I have a hard time seeing Jahmyr Gibbs finishing outside the position's top five, probably even more
3:01realistically the top three.
3:03Before we get on to Mr. 102, real quick, guys, it is fantasy football draft season, all right? August is officially here. And if you are trying to get a leg
3:09up on your competition, I advise you guys to head on over to rotowire.com and check out our subscription options, okay? I'm offering you 25 20% off, I
3:16should say, as well with code Ian20. You can get access to all of our expert rankings, our live draft assistant, which allows you to, again, see all
3:23sorts of strategy, ranks, advice while you're actively drafting on places like Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper. Also, in-season waiver wire and start/sit help. That and
3:31so much more. So, again, just want to try to help you guys earn bragging rights over friends, families, and strangers alike. Get some championship
3:37banners and hopefully even make a little bit of money along the way. So, can scan the QR code on your screen right now.
3:42Again, code Ian20. All right, cool. Back to business. 102, Bijan Robinson, $75 million man. But, what if this Falcons offense is just absolutely miserable,
3:53all right? That would be the concern here, okay? And it's not just Bijan among these running backs. We got JT and
3:57Achane and Breece Hall and Jer Jeremiah Love. But, man, over the past decade, okay, I've run the numbers.
4:04There's only been 14 running backs actually post RB1-worthy, which is top 12, per game PPR points. Top 12 numbers on a bottom-10 scoring offense. So,
4:12that's only 1.4 per season, guys.
4:15When you look at the Falcons, Vegas has them 25th. I think if you me, you watching this right now, if we sat down
4:22together and tried to rank every single offense and where they're going to finish in scoring this year, I don't think we could name
4:2910 worse offenses. I think we'd agree the Falcons are probably going to be a bottom-10 group. And why not? We got the
4:34Tua Tagovailoa Michael Penix quarterback competition. Both guys already banged up. Penix coming back from his injury.
4:40Could Tua get back to partying like his 2022 2023 again? I guess. Haven't seen a super high ceiling from Penix other than
4:47just when he's force-feeding Drake London the football. And I don't have a ton of faith in Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees. Call me crazy, guys. I think
4:54Stefanski gets a hell of a lot of credit for kind of giving prime Nick Chubb the football a lot a handful of years ago.
5:01I know the Browns' quarterback situation has been disastrous, but, man, it's not looking all that much better in Atlanta.
5:07And at the end of the day, Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees are fresh off leading offenses in Cleveland that ranked 32nd and 31st in scoring. Also
5:1429th and 27th in rushing yards as well.
5:16So, again, giving Stefanski a lot of play-calling stuff that more and more really is further and further in the rearview mirror. So, when you do look at
5:24the Falcons, it's not like they were a juggernaut last year or anything like that, but their running backs overall did have 14
5:30carries inside the 5-yard line. That was tied with the Eagles and Broncos. There were teams like the Titans, the Panthers, the Saints, and the Jets all
5:37under eight carries from the running backs inside the 5-yard line. So, that's where I think it goes south for Bijan potentially. Yeah, we know he's going to
5:43get force-fed the football, but if we look up in December and the Falcons rank 30th in overall scoring, I don't think
5:49we would necessarily be shocked and that could lead to less again touchdown opportunities for Bijan inside the 5-yard line. My actual concern level of
5:56this, I'm going to go with two out of 10. I am team Gibbs over Bijan 101 versus 102 simply because of the
6:02difference in overall scoring offense, but man, it's just the pass game opportunities, guys. We saw Bijan clear 100 of these last year and yes, we have Drake London
6:11and Kyle Pitts, but that's some of the softer overall competition you could have just in terms of numbers, all right? Nothing against
6:18Drake London or even Kyle Pitts in this scenario, but Bijan absolute demon with what he can do in the pass game. We've
6:23seen him really build on that working out with Christian McCaffrey in the off-season and everything like that. So, Tua, as we know, very used to checking
6:30down to his running back as well and Devon Achane. Penix maybe not quite as much, but again, a situation where we've
6:35already seen Bijan overcome, if you will say that, uh the Cousins and Penix experience over these last two seasons.
6:41So, not exactly super worried if that is going to be the case. So, we'll be a lot cooler if the Falcons already know a
6:46much better offense, but Bijan big play ability and again, just especially that receiving ability high enough floor for me not to be too worried about his
6:53overall offense environment.
6:55Mr. 103 now, Ja'Marr Chase.
6:58This was one of the tougher ones, guys.
7:00I'm not going to lie. I think I have to kind of go and lean on the health factor. Not for Ja'Marr Chase, but more
7:04so for his quarterback Joe Burrow because let's face it, only once in the last three seasons have we seen Burrow actually stay healthy enough for the
7:11entire season and my god, that ended up being one hell of a season for Ja'Marr Chase. 2024, league high 127 catches, league high 1,708 yards, league
7:21high 17 touchdowns, triple crown winner last time we got a fully healthy Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase. But, last year, we saw it briefly, man. Jake
7:29Browning came in, it was a disaster.
7:312023, he did some okay stuff, but it was bad enough last season to then bring in Joe Flacco who is going to be back again
7:37as their backup quarterback. He's 41 years of age though at this point. So, if you do look at Chase, he hasn't been immune to these, you
7:44know, struggles with backup quarterbacks, like any wide receiver, obviously. But, in 2023, he was just a wide receiver 11 in PPR points per game
7:51with Burrow starting out slow with the calf and then having to deal with Jake Browning down the stretch. And even last
7:55year, weeks 3 through 11, Flacco did help a lot moving away from Browning, but, you know, wide receiver five in PPR
8:01points per game instead of usual wide receiver one. Healthy Tee Higgins could squeeze things. That's all I got. Again, actual concern level here is going to be
8:08a one out of 10. Newsflash, yeah, everyone you remove the starting quarterback from any offense and their wide receivers are going to be worse
8:15off. We're looking at the best wide receiver in the NFL in the prime of his career and he's led the NFL in targets
8:19in back-to-back seasons. Same play-caller. Ja'Marr Chase, 103. I have zero concerns here.
8:25Mr. 104, Puka Nacua. Again, I think we have to lean a little bit on injury to the quarterback and then also some
8:33off-the-field stuff for Puka Nacua. All right, let's face it, you know, whether it's the rehab, whether it's the whole Bike Gate, whatever you whatever kind of
8:39offseason storyline you want to look at, hasn't been the smoothest sailing for Puka. So, seems like he's got his head more so on straight lately. The Rams
8:46have been talking to him. Obviously, he wants to get what will inevitably be a very, very highly paid contract, but not
8:52ideal, okay? I think we can agree on that. So, and then also just the Matthew Stafford part, I'm old enough to
8:57remember this time last year when we had the what hyperbolic chamber stuff being brought in the Rams training camp and there were legitimate concerns about how
9:03Matthew Stafford's back was hanging up.
9:05So, we are talking about, you know, a 38-year-old veteran at this point and yeah, played every game last season, won the freaking MVP. I don't think the back
9:13ended up being an issue here for Matthew Stafford, but again, I don't think it's fair to assume guys are going to
9:20get injured, but there is some level of some guys being more injury-prone than other guys. And I do think age plays a
9:26factor in that and I do think quarterbacks with a history of back problems who have at least had these issues over the years, yeah, I would say
9:32Matthew Stafford is a little bit more injury-prone than someone like, say, I don't know. Why's my mind going blank?
9:39Probably even Joe Burrow, even though Joe Burrow's been banged up as well. So, oh, man. Anyway, the other issue here that is not injury
9:49non-suspension-related, it will be the touchdown rate. All right, 23 quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford did it last year, but before that, 23 quarterbacks have had a touchdown rate
9:57of at least 7%. Every single one over the last decade saw that fall off the next year. Not always a ton. Sometimes
10:04it went from 9% to 7%. So, that is a decent fall off, but it's still a 7% touchdown rate. You're going to see
10:10that, you know, among the league leaders in the category. Average drop-off was 2.2% though. You look at Stafford's and it's like uh who was that guy? The up
10:18down up down.
10:20I forget the freaking rapper name. I'm not big on rappers, but every single season of Stafford's career, last 15 years I should say cuz this dude's been
10:27in the league forever at this point, his touchdown rate has gone up one year, down the next, up the next. So, we can
10:32reasonably expect a little bit of a touchdown rate decrease, which would be problematic particularly when so many touchdowns are going to Davante Adams
10:39inside the 5-yard line in the first place. So, again, could Stafford be a little more injury prone than your other quarterbacks around the league? I think
10:46that's fair. Could Stafford be looking at more likely touchdown regression than other quarterbacks around the league?
10:51Yes. And Puka Nacua, if we had to again try to do like a 1 to 100 scale on potential off-the-field suspension risk
10:57concerns, I would say he's higher than someone like Ja'Marr Chase for instance.
11:01All that said, my actual concern level here just a two out of 10. All right, I'm going one tick higher than Ja'Marr
11:06Chase, but again, 25 years old coming off 129 catches, 1,700-plus yards, and 10 scores. And even independent of Stafford, like let's say Stafford was
11:15out of the picture, I have so much confidence in Sean McVay still just finding ways to get Puka Nacua the ball, man. We've seen 33 rush
11:22attempts over these past three seasons.
11:25Shout out to my old guy Bobby Trees who used to kind of get those touches in the Rams offense before. So, Puka so dynamic
11:31with the football in his hands and just from in terms of what he can do yak-wise, screens, and just also in the
11:35run game. Such a high floor at the position. So, obviously we want the reigning MVP under center to help hook things up down the field. I'm not trying
11:43to take anything away from Puka and call him a product of the system. Like, when that ball's in the air, he goes up there
11:48and gets it with the best of them. And just his ability along the sideline, man, special special stuff, too. So, again, incredible talent, just enough
11:55stuff kind of hanging on with his quarterback and his own off-the-field stuff to maybe go ahead and go two out of 10, but overall, not worried. I do
12:03think this is a little bit of a tier break, though, guys.
12:06If I had my choice, and I am going to be coming out with a video here soon looking at basically like how kind of
12:11draft position, what we should be doing from the early spots, middle spots, and late spots. So, keep an eye out for
12:16that. But, for me, these first four dudes, I feel fantastic about each of them. And it really is tough to have too
12:21much concern. I have a little bit more with the other guys, though. So, let's go ahead and move on then to Mr. 105,
12:27Christian McCaffrey. The two I think pretty obvious issues here, coming off a season in which he had 450 touches, and the fact that this dude just turned 30
12:35years old.
12:36It's a little bit of a survivorship bias thing here. So, not that many running backs who have turned 30 years old turn
12:43in really good fantasy seasons, because there's also not that many 30-plus-year-old running backs in the NFL in the first place. So, we do need
12:49to keep that in mind. That said, it did surprise me how few have actually given us any sort of big-time upside in
12:54fantasy in recent history. Specifically, guys, last 10 years, it's only been four running backs north of 30 average 15-plus PPR points per game, okay?
13:03Derrick Henry has done it in each of the last two seasons. We had the 2023 Raheem Mostert year, and then 2019 Mark Ingram.
13:09So, Lamar Jackson overseeing three of those seasons, pretty freaking special talent there that the Ravens got under center. So, again, the 30-year-old thing
13:17not looking good for CMC. And also, I will say, I've done the research on some of the touch and the workload stuff going on
13:24the next year. It's not the most ideal thing, all right? I think it's a little bit overstated. Sometimes people hang on
13:30to the 370 rush attempts in a regular season. They don't use the playoffs.
13:34Sometimes they use receptions, sometimes they don't. I've seen these studies where they basically will like just not even acknowledge Le'Veon Bell's holdout
13:41year when Zeke got suspended for six games. You know, like David Johnson had a massive touch season and then what? He
13:47dislocated his wrist in week one. Are those things really super correlated?
13:51So, every one of these studies is going to have some noise going on with it.
13:55That said, I looked at the 30 instances of a running back getting at least 350 touches including playoffs from 2015 to
14:022024. So, decade worth of action basically getting the top three sort of outlier kind of volume sort of seasons from running backs from each. The
14:10average games played next season after this including playoffs, 13.3. Medium was 16. 12 of the last 13 qualifiers actually went on to play at least 13
14:19games the next season. One of them who didn't was CMC. So, sorry there, bro.
14:23Average PPR points per game the next season dropped minus 3.9. That said, it was still at 16.6. Still a lot of
14:31fantasy points being scored. The biggest issue that we did see impact far more running backs than not was a drop-off in
14:37yards per carry. We saw these guys again in their high touch season originally average 4.7 yards per carry. That fell to 4.1 the following year. Something
14:44that did manage to get CMC this past season as we saw. So, all in all, my actual concern level with this,
14:51I'm going with a four out of 10, all right? I had Bijan at two. I had Gibbs at one. I had Chase at one. I had Puka
14:56at two. I'm going up to four here for CMC just out of some respect to Father Time. But man, when I am on the clock at
15:031.05, it's still looking at CMC and it's saying, well, yeah, if he doesn't stay healthy, that's going to suck. But if he
15:09does stay healthy, I'm going to have a pretty damn decent chance at winning my fantasy football league. So, again, I would say the big thing here for CMC
15:17that separates him from these other running backs that have again had these big touch seasons, so much of his upside comes from
15:24receiving, guys. Last year, Christian McCaffrey had more PPR points from receiving than Saquon freaking Barkley had total, all right? That's what CMC is
15:32bringing to the table, and the fact is sub station seemingly just wants to take out everyone not named CMC, knock on
15:38wood, is just helping his cause, man.
15:40Kittle's got the Achilles. Evans is dealing with the quad right now.
15:42Struggling's got a hammy. Obviously, Pearsall's out for the season. Christian Kirk is banged up as well. I mean, they brought back Deebo Samuel. He's healthy
15:49for now. Even Caleb Black, Isaac Guerendo, and Jordan James are dealing with injuries as well. So, every single year, you know, Kyle Shanahan's like,
15:56"Yeah, we'd like to get CMC a little bit less work, but right now, all those other running backs on the roster are
16:01banged up. Sure seems like CMC is once again going to be someone who we could see get near 300 carries, but even more
16:08importantly, clear 100 targets. So, so tough to bust in the full PPR format when that is the case.
16:14Let's move on to Mr. 106 here. Jackson Smith-Njigba.
16:18My concern here would be how confident are we that last year's wide receiver two PPR finish is the new norm and not
16:24maybe the high end for a guy who's obviously talented, but let's face it, first year of his career, wide receiver 57, second year of his career, wide
16:32receiver 18. If the truth is somewhere in the middle of those finishes, it's going to be problematic, cuz again, we're drafting this dude with the top
16:38six overall pick. So, I would like to think their new OC, Brian Fleury, taking over for Clint Kubiak, who took his
16:44talents to the Las Vegas Raiders, I'd like to think they keep things the same.
16:47You hear this from a lot of new coordinators. They say, "Yeah, it's not broke, why am I going to fix it?" We We
16:52heard that in Detroit last year, okay?
16:53And what happened? It kind of got broke in the first 2 months of the year. Dan Campbell said, "No worries, I'm taking
16:59over. We're getting back to doing our thing." And they largely did get back to scoring a bunch of points.
17:03We don't really have that get out of jail free card, though, in Seattle. Mike McDonald, probably the best defensive mind in the league, I think we can say
17:10that at this point.
17:12He's not there to save the offense if it goes south.
17:15There's a lot to like about Brian Fleury. He spent last 7 years learning under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, but mostly as a tight end coach. He was
17:22a run game coordinator last year as well.
17:24It's problematic a little bit.
17:27Again, we can find a hole for anyone.
17:30But it comes down to are you truly ready to say that Jackson Smith-Njigba is that much better than CeeDee Lamb? Is that
17:38much better than Amon-Ra St. Brown?
17:40These other guys who we just have more confidence, I would say, in the overall offensive ecosystem. And with all due respect to Darnold, I don't
17:47know. I still trust Goff and Dak a little bit more. And I've been trying to give Darnold a lot more respect. He just
17:52won the freaking Super Bowl. He's largely played lights out the last 2 years. But again, when we're picking at the very top of the draft, these are
17:58tough questions we got to ask. So, anyway, it takes us to the actual concern level.
18:02I'm going a three out of 10. I'm not even getting all the way up there to a four. We saw it last year, guys, even
18:07against some of the best cornerbacks the game had to offer.
18:10Just one of the best wide receivers alive. He's only 24 years old. We had the high expectations at first. Year one, Shane Waldron. Year two, got going
18:18more so. Had a little more target competition with DK Metcalf. If there is more target competition brought in, I think I would have more problems here,
18:26but there really isn't. They re-signed Rashid Shaheed. Cooper Kupp's back. Tory Horton, all right, he's back from injury and everything, but man,
18:33even if this team isn't as big of a juggernaut overall, you could The other argument you could make is that, all right, more
18:39competitive games, also with the running back room where you lost Zach Charbonnet at least for a big portion of the season. You lost Kenneth Walker who went
18:45to the Kansas City Chiefs. We got the volume go up. It's kind of the similar thing I've talked about with Drake Maye
18:50and the Patriots. Like, yeah, they're probably not going to be as efficient this season on offense. How could you be when you were so good last year? But
18:56okay, if you even if you move down the efficiency, if we're getting the volume, you know, a lot more, 1.5 times a year
19:01or whatever, yeah, all of a sudden it's going to be okay in fantasy land. So, three out of 10 concern level for JSN. I
19:07just still think that, again, very much, even if he's not the the best wide receiver in the NFL, he might be and
19:13good luck naming five or six definitively better than the guy. So again, such little target competition.
19:17Sam Darnold joins Jared Goff as the only quarterbacks to throw for at least 4,000 yards in each of the past two seasons.
19:23JSN for me, still my wide receiver three, still someone I'm confident taking in the top half of the first round. All right guys, Mr. 107 now,
19:30we're back in the running back streets with Jonathan Taylor.
19:34What if the offense sucks? All right?
19:37That's the concern here. It's not JT, it's not even the pass-down stuff. I'll talk about that more in a bit, but
19:44we say this about Christian McCaffrey.
19:45We say, well, if he just stays healthy, he's going to help win your league and it's pretty much true for Jonathan
19:49Taylor as well. He's played the full season twice in his career.
19:53He's had 20 touchdowns twice in his career. All right? And yes, those were the same season. So, last year we got
19:58what, over 1,900 total yards, he had over 2,100 total yards back in 2021. So, we're talking about 2,000-plus total yard upside and 20 touchdowns if JT can
20:08play 17 games.
20:10That said, we saw the splits last year, guys. I don't think Jonathan Taylor turned into a worse running back down the stretch of last year, but man, did
20:17his fantasy numbers do it. Weeks 1 through 10 with a healthy Daniel Jones, 27 PPR points per game. Easily the RB1,
20:25guys. I'm sure Titans players still have nightmares about those games. Weeks 12 through 18 though, injured Daniel Jones, Philip Rivers, Riley Leonard, just 12.6
20:34PPR points per game. Tony freaking Pollard outscored Jonathan Taylor from weeks 12 through 18 last year. Just the RB23. So, that's what we have going on,
20:43man. And then you have to ask yourself, how good is this Colts offense going to be this year?
20:48Vegas isn't super down on them. They got them middle of the pack and I get it.
20:52Weeks 1 through 10, juggernaut. We were pulling up stats saying, you know, their per drive efficiency was up there with the 99 Rams. Daniel Jones
21:00legit, before he had the injuries come on, deserved to be at least like a dark horse MVP candidate. That's how good the
21:06numbers were. That's how good the offense was.
21:10Here's why I'm worried.
21:11Daniel Jones, right Achilles tear, plant foot, power foot.
21:16He's going to be out there week one seemingly.
21:18I would expect him to be a little less mobile. I would expect his arm strength to probably not be as ideal. He tore the
21:23Achilles in December, you know? I don't think the world works that way where we can just assume that Daniel Jones is going to be operating at the same
21:33peak efficiency we saw in the first 10 weeks of last season. That's awesome.
21:37That's a ceiling. We should think more of Daniel Jones now after seeing it. It happened. Are we positive that's the new
21:44normal coming off a potentially devastating right Achilles injury when we do have another six seasons of evidence that basically tell us he
21:53sucks?
21:54I don't think he sucks.
21:56Where's the truth though? Probably somewhere in the middle, okay?
22:00This dude couldn't average over 7 yards for a temp one time in New York and he's easily over 80 with the Colts.
22:06We even started to see stuff in the Steelers game. Moving on after that, defense is catching up a little bit.
22:12Let's say Daniel Jones is just back to 100%, not only back to 100%, back to the best version of himself. Pretty big assumption if you
22:19ask me, but let's say that's the case.
22:22His pass catchers sure don't look all that great. Alec Pierce is supposed to take on a bigger role this year after he
22:27became, you know, a nine-figure receiver, okay? And Alec Pierce has been awesome these last two years. Number one yards per target in the NFL. Yards per
22:34catch numbers up there like this dude field stretcher magnificent, you know, player out doing just that.
22:41Had the melt March ankle surgery. They wanted to try to go through it not do the surgery. It was still an issue. He
22:46decided to get the surgery.
22:48He's still not in training camp, man.
22:51It sounds like he'll be ready for week one.
22:53But everyone's saying how oh, Alec Pierce now, no more Michael Pittman.
22:57They just paid him. He's going to take on this bigger role.
23:00I hope he's ready to learn that bigger role in about 3 weeks, man. And I hope he's healthy enough to go ahead and do
23:05that a high level. So, we have potential mobility and arm strength issues for Daniel Jones. We have potential speed {slash} offensive
23:13concerns with Alec Pierce. If they're asking him to go take this bigger role for Michael Pittman because right now as I record this on August
23:195th, they haven't signed Keenan Allen yet. I love Josh Downs, you love Josh Downs.
23:24Ashton Dulin and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are not scaring anyone. And honestly, 5-ft 8 170 Josh Downs, he's not scaring defenses downfield. And that's okay.
23:34That's doesn't need to be his game. I don't think Tyler Warren is necessarily scaring scaring defenses downfield.
23:40If you were a defensive coordinator, what are you doing?
23:44I'm putting eight or nine guys in the box and I'm saying we got to stop Jonathan Taylor just like defenses did
23:48down the stretch of last season when he finished as a low-end RB2.
23:52Just what I'm thinking, guys.
23:54Maybe Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, they're just so efficient underneath that doesn't even matter. And but again, that'd be the other part. Warren, Downs,
24:02they work closer to the line of scrimmage. Why would you not get more bodies around the line of scrimmage and say, "Hey, Daniel, if you can go ahead
24:07and beat us deep with with Alec Pierce, Ashton Dulin, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine."
24:09Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jesus, sorry.
24:13We'll accept that type of deal. So, my actual concern level, I'm going with a six.
24:20It's a little bit of an overpay, guys.
24:22Are we sure Jonathan Taylor should be ranked over Saquon Barkley?
24:26I'm not. The Colts have a good offensive line, we know that. Quenton Nelson, you know, my god. Dude eats bowl of nails
24:32every morning without the milk. I get it.
24:35But this offense could be bad. I have a bold calls article on rotowire.com right now if you guys want to check it out.
24:40One of my bold calls, I think they're going to be a bottom-five scoring offense. So, Saquon, Derrick Henry, we just have so
24:47much more confidence in what the Ravens and Eagles are putting forward, man. So, we did see more receiving goodness from JT last year. And this is why even if I
24:56am going to be {quote} {unquote} fading JT, ranking a guy a few spots ahead of him, he's still going to be in my top
25:0212. Closer to 12 than one, but and which means I'm not going to be drafting him a ton. I get it. That's the game we play
25:07in round one.
25:08We did see him last year average 5.6 PPR points per game just from receiving. He only had 2.7 in 2024. I don't think
25:14Giddens or Seth McGowan are going to be exactly, you know, eating into that work too much. Colts have been very willing
25:20to leave JT on the field for pretty much every single snap. So, I'm not saying don't take him no matter what, you know,
25:25even if there's a fire, he is Jonathan freaking Taylor after all, but very very high price for a guy who doesn't have Bijan's receiving
25:32ceiling. It's a little bit better than like Derrick Henry, but, you know, those numbers still aren't crazy.
25:38Really really could be in an offense that could be in a rough situation for me. So, Jonathan Taylor 107, definitely guy I'm most concerned with so far.
25:46Mr. 108, Amon-Ra St. Brown. We have to look ourselves in the mirror and ask, is Greg Dorch about to take his starting
25:52job? Okay, that was a joke. Please don't turn this off. Anyway, all right, what if the Drew Petzing offense though doesn't force-feed Amon-Ra the ball the
25:59same way we've seen over the years? Cuz my god, guys, last four seasons Amon-Ra's had 146, 164, 141, 172 targets.
26:08I think we all agree Jameson Williams is really good. I think we all agree Sam LaPorta is really good. We know Jahmyr
26:13Gibbs is really good. We already talked about that guy.
26:16What if we see Amon-Ra's targets go from the 140 to 170 range to 120? Drew Petzing last year, yeah, they led the
26:24Cardinals led the league in pass attempts cuz they sucked and their entire running back room died.
26:28The previous years, man, he was 24th and 21st in rush attempts with Kyler Murray under center. So, I think the Lions will play into their
26:35strengths. There's no David Montgomery.
26:36I don't think Isiah Pacheco is going to have that role. There's a reason why I didn't even mention him while going
26:40through Gibbs and everything, but the Lions were eighth in pass attempts last season. If we do see that reduced down, it could be a little bit problematic,
26:49all right, guys? So, actual concern level here, three out of 10. And that honestly feels even high here. I actually like what Penei Sewell
26:56could be doing for this offense in terms of what he kind of asked his quarterbacks to do under center, throwing over the middle of the field.
27:01And honestly, I like a lot of that because smarter real-life minds than myself like a lot of that. Shout out Ben
27:06Solak and Nate Tice among among others.
27:08So, I don't think Amon-Ra is the, you know, my god, the Cooper Kupp role, remember that whole thing? I do [snorts] not
27:14believe Amon-Ra St. Brown is a product of the system. I think he is the system.
27:17I think he's one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And my god, man, this schedule is just so nice. Their
27:23first real road game is going to be week 17 against the Chicago Bears. And honestly, I'm old enough to remember week 18 last
27:30year when Jared Goff threw for 331 yards even in the Windy City. So, again, a situation, guys, where Amon-Ra St. Brown
27:38still continues to feel like one of the safer first-round picks. If it does go wrong, I think it would just be Jameson
27:43Williams, Sam LaPorta really balling out. But, I don't think that means the Sun God's going to disappear. So, could he finish
27:50like wide receiver 10 instead of wide receiver four where we're drafting him? Like, that's kind of the worst-case scenario for me. I would
27:56be shocked if Amon-Ra St. Brown finishes outside the top 12 at the position barring an injury to him or Jared Goff.
28:03109, Mr. CeeDee Lamb.
28:06This one's a little bit tougher. I don't think Jameson Williams could overtake Amon-Ra St. Brown.
28:11I would What What do you put the chances at? I'd say like 5%? George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, that's a lot tighter. I
28:18would still give CeeDee the edge. But, what are the percentage chances of Pickens having more targets than CeeDee Lamb or at least being more productive,
28:25which he kind of was overall last season? I'll get to the actual splits in a sec. 70-30, 65-35, it's definitely closer, guys. But, all right.
28:3512 full games together last year. Cuz if you just look at You got to be careful here. CeeDee played like three snaps
28:40before he got hurt against the Bears. He got knocked out at halftime with that Lions game where he was going crazy in
28:44the first half. Then we had a wonky week 18 game thrown in there, as well. 12 full games together, CD had 116 targets,
28:52Pickens had 99. PPR points per game, CD had 16.6, Pickens had 15.9. If you look at those averages across the season
28:59compared to the rest of the position, CD would be the wide receiver nine, Pickens would be the wide receiver 12. We've
29:05seen 15 offenses, including the Cowboys last year and also the Rams, produce multiple top 12 receivers in PPR points per game in the same season. I do think
29:13the Cowboys are basically the NFC version of the Cincinnati Bengals. Most of their offensive production through the air should be going through CD Lamb
29:20and George Pickens, and we should be feeling good about that.
29:24But, could a little bit more go to Pickens? I don't think CD has the same level of talent, but it's close, not to put
29:32him down. And then, also just stranglehold number one job as a Ja'Marr Chase over Tee Higgins. Actual concern level for me,
29:40it's a five out of 10, more so just in terms of getting a true upside world beater wide receiver one overall season,
29:49which we saw CD do in 2023, but he was the only show in town in 2023. When we have seen the additional competition
29:56added since, and honestly, CD unfortunately having to play through some injuries, it just hasn't quite been the same. He's been more of a low-end
30:02wide receiver one, which is fine.
30:04Similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown, I'd be very surprised if CD is, you know, anything worse than a low-end wide receiver one here, but I do think at
30:11109, I don't want to draft. I'd rather not a wide receiver who I'd be shocked if he finished as top three.
30:19So, personally, Saquon Barkley is someone I'd probably be looking at here.
30:24But, yeah, after Amon-Ra St. Brown, I'd rather let someone else draft these wide receivers. Like, what? CD Lamb versus AJ Brown, guys? I don't know. AJB
30:35wide receiver 11 last year. We've seen him have higher highs overall. I think we would agree in general AJ Brown has
30:41been a better real-life receiver than CeeDee Lamb. Now he gets to link up with Drake May.
30:45It's very tight for me. CeeDee Lamb 109, a little bit more concern, I would say, than perhaps he's being given credit
30:51for.
30:52Mr. 110, Justin Jefferson. What if his passing game isn't better, guys?
30:58We always say it can't get much worse.
30:59What if it does?
31:01Justin Jefferson career receiving yards per game by quarterback, 99 with Kirk Cousins, 95 with Carson Wentz, 90 with Sam Darnold, 66 with 66 with Nick
31:11Mullens, and it actually should be much higher. That's including some part-time games there. It's like over 100 if you only include the three starts.
31:18JJ McCarthy, though, 48 receiving yards per game for someone who is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL over the course of the past
31:26half decade. McCarthy is horrible. There was a line, oh my god, guys, this absolutely slayed me. All-time training camp note from Kevin Seifert out of
31:34Vikings camp.
31:36Quote, an audible murmur from the crowd here in Eagan after JJ McCarthy overthrows three consecutive passes to the corner in a goal line drill with no
31:47defense.
31:49Not three straight incompletions in seven-on-seven or red zone work. No defense, and my man couldn't even put the ball to his guy in the corner of the
31:56end zone. We know McCarthy's horrible, all right?
31:59That horrible quarterback averaged more yards per attempt than Kyler Murray last year. And I'm a little bit of a Kyler defender, okay? Kyler has
32:07flashed some real truly high heights. It's not a short man joke. Kyler's played some really good football during the course of his NFL
32:15career. 2025 was not one of those seasons.
32:19The offense as a whole was okay. They were better EPA per play with Kyler under center than Jacoby. The run game
32:24threat is real, and that matters for leading an offense. I do think Kyler is going to win the job.
32:30But if he's not much better, we're probably going to see JJ McCarthy get another chance sooner rather than later. I don't see Kyler having this
32:37leash.
32:38You know what I'm saying? Particularly for a competitive Vikings team that still wants to find out what they have with J.J. McCarthy.
32:44We've seen Kyler be at a high level. I would like to think that KOC, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson,
32:51I would like to think that they can get really good quarterback play out of Kyler Murray. It's not a given though.
32:57And just trying to read between the lines of some of these training camp reports, it doesn't sound like Kyler's running away with it. And you would like
33:03to think he could run away with it because he's freaking competing against J.J. McCarthy out here. So, some of the stuff thrown over the middle
33:10isn't ideal as well cuz that was the big concern with J.J. last year, right? They were like, we couldn't have the same
33:14concepts throwing the ball in the intermediate over the middle areas of the field as we could with Sam Darnold.
33:19Kyler's short and it hurts his ability to see over the middle of the field.
33:23That is just a fact. So, there's so many other things he can do running around and making plays off script that are
33:27awesome. And just because Kyler's short and isn't the best thrower over the middle of the field, doesn't mean he can't still be a great quarterback in
33:33the right system or in the right environment. Maybe this is going to be just that. I would imagine that KOC is
33:38going to try to design things to his strength, but I'm going to actual concern level seven out of 10, guys. I have soured on the
33:45idea in my home league of using a late round one pick on Justin Jefferson.
33:51I get it. Him, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek, you can throw Amon-Ra in there. I mean, we He's certainly in the very, very
33:59short list of the best wide receivers since he's entered the NFL. He could very well be the number one guy.
34:05But we are talking about a brutal mix of quarterback play here. I I did another thing. I'm going to do a separate video
34:11about this, but I looked at all the top 24 wide receivers, what Vegas says their offense is going to rank in scoring, and
34:16then where they finished last year.
34:19I mean, Jefferson's is damning, guys. It really is. Justin Jefferson was the wide receiver with 32 in PPR points per game
34:26last year. And we're saying, all right, you're getting right back there in the top six cuz Kyler Murray's here.
34:31Vegas says his offense is going to be That'd be better than last year. Not a lot better than last year, though.
34:36The regression case is good for Jefferson. He only caught two of his 16 end zone targets. The only other wide receiver we have seen catch two of only
34:45two of 15 plus end zone targets, 2017 Julio Jones, he caught eight touchdowns the next year, okay? So, we can feel a little better about that.
34:53And the other case would be as bad as McCarthy and Kyler were last year, Kyler did throw a more catchable ball, okay?
35:00Plus 9% catchable target rate difference in terms of what Jefferson was getting last season compared to what Kyler Murray's receivers got last year, and I
35:07excluded screens from that uh, you know, study. So, I think Jefferson will certainly feel uh, finish better than wide receiver 32
35:14last season. How could he not? But, we have a long way to go, guys, to get up here. A lot of really good running backs
35:19still on the board. I am souring on the idea of using, again, a top 10 top 10 pick on Justin Jefferson.
35:26Don't you think some Again, I appreciate you guys hanging out with me a lot throughout the summer and everything.
35:30It's August 5th. I know a lot of people still aren't going to like be paying attention to fantasy football for another couple weeks.
35:35I would imagine there's people out there thinking, "Oh, man, Justin Jefferson, I can't wait to buy the dip here."
35:42Round three Justin Jefferson, they're like, "Oh, wait, he's going at the end of round one." Similar thing with Ashton Jeanty. So, I think he'll be better, but
35:49where we're drafting him, man, he doesn't just need to be better. He needs to be back to being the man, and I'm
35:54concerned about that quarterback room.
35:56Mr. 111, James Cook. I think the issue here is the regression gods come knocking in a similar manner as we saw
36:01with Saquon Barkley last season. So, 385 touches including playoffs last year. Again, it's one of these things where 370 touches another thing that's I've
36:11seen people throw that number out. Bijan Robinson has finished with like 366 and 369. So, I guess he's fine. Thank god he
36:18didn't get an extra three carries one week, otherwise we'd have to fade him.
36:21So, I'm not super worried about the touch factor, but I brought it up for CMC.
36:26And it is, again, plenty of data does suggest that these guys following a high-touch season are going to be a little bit more worse off the following
36:32year.
36:33And in Cook's case, the touchdowns are really relying on big plays, okay?
36:39He had a league-high four touchdown runs of at least 40 yards last season. And we have Josh Allen stealing a lot of
36:44touchdowns on the goal line, okay?
36:46Carries inside the 5-yard line, Josh Allen had 13, James Cook had 14. From the 1-yard line specifically, Josh Allen had seven,
36:54James Cook had three.
36:56If this Bills offense is more good than great, I think it could be a big-time problem with these touchdowns. They've been so loaded and had so many
37:04opportunities inside the 5-yard line that, yeah, okay, go ahead and score your 13 rushing touchdowns yourself, Josh Allen. We'll still have a bunch left over for James
37:11Cook. He's explosive enough to make some more, but if we don't get a receiving floor, which it hasn't been there the last 2 years,
37:18I mean, James Cook these last two seasons receiving-wise, fancy points per game, he's right there with Javonte Williams and Kyren Williams. So, really
37:24not good there.
37:26That said, my actual concern level, I'm only a four out of 10 here. We still got Josh Allen. We still got Joe Brady.
37:32Established the run ranks the Bills O-line fourth in the league. And honestly, if anything about the receiving stuff, I think there's room to
37:37grow. Like, that'd be the other thing here if we want to go like glass half full for all these guys.
37:42What if this offense stays sick? And what if James Cook catches 50, 60 passes? I think he's capable. I know he
37:48dropped a handful of wheel touchdowns back in 2023. That was not ideal, but he has the skill set to be a great
37:54receiving back. They just haven't needed to lean into it. Why would they? They're awesome. Ty Johnson is a good receiving back.
38:00Pete Carmichael though, famously of the Sean Payton New Orleans Saints, Pete Carmichael, maybe he does open things up.
38:06I am a little bit concerned, again, about the 2025 Saquon potential, but I think the big issue with Saquon last year was that offense, that offensive
38:13line getting all kinds of banged up, and the scoring environment as a whole taking a step back, so we had less
38:18opportunities inside the 5-yard line, and definitely from the 1-yard line, which as we know, again, influenced by a touch push. So, I'm more confident in
38:24the 2026 Bills overall offensive infrastructure than I am with, again, them falling by the wayside like the Eagles did last year. I'm still very
38:32much okay using a first round pick on James Cook in the year 2026.
38:37Last one, 112, Devon Achane. Pretty easy one, guys. You can guess it. The offense is horrendous, but also they just don't
38:45throw the ball to Achane as much, which might seem weird. Why wouldn't they throw it to him more? There's no Tyreek
38:50Hill, there's no Jaylen Waddle. Maybe that does end up being the case. I mentioned the numbers earlier, though.
38:54Only 14 instances of a running back posting top 12 numbers in a bottom 10 scoring offense over the last decade. In
39:002025, Achane was one of them. That's another thing I see with the pushback.
39:03Dolphins offense is going to suck. Well, they kind of sucked last year, and Achane was just fine with that. And they
39:08were just fine because And Achane was just fine cuz he's freaking awesome, okay? RB1 in the Super Bowl era in career yards per carry. We see the
39:16things he can do as a receiver. Devon Achane is really freaking good.
39:20I do wonder, though, if we're going to get the design passes to Achane, cuz I think we're going to need those. When
39:25you look at these last two seasons, we've had 62 qualified quarterbacks with the dropbacks. It's a Malik Willis stat, spoiler. Number one scramble rate is
39:33Malik Willis.
39:3556 in scramble rate to Tua Tagovailoa.
39:38You guys have seen Tua play. When there's pressure, where's Devon Achane?
39:42When Malik Willis sees pressure, he says, "Watch this, you know. Let me put my cape on. Let me go scramble around."
39:47Not that he won't still flip the ball to Achane sometimes, but man, as much as we've seen dual threat quarterbacks help their teams run game,
39:55efficiency, read option, and the gravity, historically, at least the studies I've done, guys, the lack of volume as a receiver because
40:04the quarterback scrambles more, and the added presence of a touchdown scorer near the goal line with someone like Malik Willis running more than someone
40:11like Tua, ultimately hurts the running backs involved more.
40:15Last point, I mentioned it. We need to design passes to Achane. Mike McDaniel, when he was with the Dolphins, man, Dolphins were eighth in first read
40:24targets to running backs overall during his span. It's even higher if you just look with Achane over the last season or two, okay?
40:312023-2024 Houston Texans with Bobby Slowik, aka the new Dolphins offensive coordinator, they were tied for 24th.
40:39I do think first read targets are something that can be very, very dependent on personnel. I definitely think the 2026 Dolphins will be higher
40:47than 24th. Are they going to be eighth, though?
40:49Are they going to be somewhere in between?
40:52Is their offense going to be bad like last year, or they going to be really freaking bad?
40:56Dolphins have 30 million fewer 2026 dollars devoted to their offense than the next cheapest offense in the league.
41:03That's the New York Football Jets.
41:05My concern level here is eight out of 10, guys. I'm not clicking Devon Achane at the end of round one.
41:12And don't tell me to trust the talent, cuz why not just trust Saquon Barkley's talent, or Derrick Henry's talent, or even Chase Brown's talent? I know Chase
41:19Brown isn't as talented as those guys, but man, that Cincy offense is pretty nice, see? Chase Brown is the only show
41:24in town.
41:25Chase Brown's going to catch a lot of passes.
41:28All due respect to Devon Achane, I just think there are a lot better options at the end of round one to be investing in.
41:33So, quick recap, everyone. Concern levels for these guys, one out of 10 for Jahmyr Gibbs, two out of 10 for Bijan
41:38Robinson, one out of 10 for Ja'Marr Chase, two out of 10 for Puka Nacua. We have a four out of 10 for Christian
41:44McCaffrey. I might have even gone one higher when I went through it. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a three out of 10. And
41:48Jonathan Taylor, six out of 10. Amon-Ra St. Brown, three out of 10. CeeDee Lamb, five out of 10. Justin Jefferson, seven
41:54out of 10. James Cook, four out of 10.
41:57Devon Achane, I believe I said eight out of 10. So, comes down to these offenses, guys. As much as we do have examples of
42:04guys thriving in bad offensive environments, they're outliers, all right? And I don't like betting on outliers with a round one pick in fantasy land. but hey, could
42:13see you guys disagreeing. If you do, hit me up in the comments. Otherwise, if you like the video, please like the video.
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42:26off on my articles, all of our ranks, and so many freaking great tools that I cannot wait to show off throughout the
42:32rest of the off season and into the year. So, really want to thank you guys again for supporting the channel and for
42:36watching this video. I have plenty more on the way. So, in the meantime, just have a great rest of your day. Do
42:42something nice for a family member. Go ahead and call mom again, say what's up, and otherwise, yeah, go be better. I'm
42:49Ian Hartitz. Thanks again for tuning in.
42:50Until next time, take care, everybody.
