0:00It is a great day to break down my week one. That's right. We've made it people.
0:04Quarterback rankings and tiers. I'm going to be more quickly going through my top 32 quarterbacks inside their tiers and then going through a bigger
0:10picture takeaway for that crop of quarterbacks. So biggest mismatches and as we get more into the season, you know, buy low, sell high, strength of
0:17schedule, waiver wire pickups, streaming, you know, for bye weeks, things of that nature. So with that said everyone, let's get after it with my big
0:25tier one of the dual threat ballers. We got Josh Allen as the QB1. Going up against the Texans defense that did make
0:32life difficult for my man last year.
0:34Only the fifth time that Allen has scored under 10 fantasy points in a non-week 18 contest over the last three years happened again against Will
0:42Anderson and company, but still Josh Allen and this stat kind of blew my mind. Only Derrick Henry actually have more rushing fantasy points on plays
0:49inside the opponent's three-yard line than Josh Allen last season. Again, it's just one of those things with the tush push. Josh Allen, you guys get it. Tough
0:57to really ever be down on the dude. QB2 Lamar Jackson going into Indy. Remember last time these guys played that Monday
1:03night football game? I believe when Lamar went unconscious in the second half. It's going to be a situation where the Colts run a ton of zone coverage.
1:10They weren't very good at getting a bunch of pressure. So hopefully a fully healthy Lamar Jackson is ready to do what he does best, run for a ton of
1:17yards and rack up a bunch of fantasy points. My QB3 is going to be Jalen Hurts against the Washington Commanders.
1:22Absolutely atrocious secondary going on in Washington right now. Maybe I'll be wrong. The season hasn't even started just yet, but man, you look at the
1:29starting corners. Russell Douglas is 31 years old, been on his fourth team in four years. Mike Hilton allowed the most touchdowns in the league last year in
1:36his coverage and their other guy, I believe Ladarius Robinson, I think allowed the second most receiving yards in his coverage. So Jalen Hurts, again,
1:43wasn't the hottest year for him last year, but even then, guys, 18.7 fantasy points per game. That was good for QB7
1:48status. Very much anticipating a back, you know, a comeback year I should say for Mr. Hurts. And then QB4, last one in
1:54this tier, is going to be Jayden Daniels on that other sideline. Didn't love what we saw from the offensive line. Larry
1:59Tun- Laremy Tunsil being out is a problem for Jayden Daniels, and he wasn't all that great last year, but these rushing quarterbacks, guys, they
2:06can be mediocre in real life and still be great in fantasy. 18.9 fantasy points per game for Daniels in the first 4
2:13weeks of last season. I think again, it's just one of these situations where even if Washington isn't great in real life, Daniels, because of how much he
2:19runs, should still be fine in fantasy land.
2:22Big question though I want to look at here is what offensive lines could have the most problem in the pressure department, okay? I like using these
2:29two-way stats to basically get a one-way metric if that makes any sense at all.
2:33So, I'm going to show you guys a chart right now that basically has every offensive line's pressure rate allowed from last season, along with their
2:39defense opposing defenses pressure rate that they were able to generate. So, again, instead of always going this team ranks X, this team's ranks Y, we combine
2:47the metrics to really get a one-way street going there. And with that in mind, the most screwed offensive lines, based on their 2025 numbers, I know,
2:55okay, we'll get better as the season goes on, the Packers, the Browns, and the Vikings really stand out as probably having the most trouble in the pressure
3:03department. And those honestly do add up to some of our Rotowire preseason offensive line rankings. Offensive lines that should be giving their quarterbacks
3:10a lot more time to throw. We have the Rams against the 49ers in Australia. The Steelers against the Falcons. Also, just
3:16cuz Rodgers gets the ball out so quickly. The Dolphins and the Bears also really stand out as having cozy pockets, so keep that in mind when going through
3:23your different quarterbacks. So, again, maybe not ideal for Jayden Daniels. They were just outside of that bottom three group that we started with, but
3:30situation where he is fast enough to get away from the pressure. I'm still starting him with confidence.
3:36Tier two, still plenty of reason for excitement. We're starting off with Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow against the Buccaneers, kind of had some week one
3:43demons over the past 3 years, hasn't played particularly well out of the gate. Also, probably got co-assist that those usually came against Myles Garrett
3:49and the Browns. So, not exactly expecting that same issue for a Buccaneers defense that usually has funnel production through the air with
3:56big bad Vita Vea clogging up the run lanes in the middle. My QB 6, Justin Herbert going up against the Cardinals.
4:01We got the Chargers sitting as double-digit home favorites against a defense that I'm not really afraid of at all. So, even if you don't want to take
4:07my word for it, our Vegas implied team totals, and I'm going to be using this a lot throughout the season, guys, so just
4:13bear with me here for a second. We can get the team total that Vegas expects every team to be scoring based on their
4:19spread and over/under. So, again, we're getting the spread and the over/under for every game. We're able to do some calculations and figure out how many
4:26points Vegas is specifically expecting for each team. I like to use it for tiebreakers in the ranks. Nobody is implied to score more points than the
4:33Los Angeles Chargers here in Week 1. So, wheels up for Herbert and company there.
4:36My QB 7 is going to be Caleb Williams.
4:38Got this not revenge game, but the trade factor going on there, Bears versus the Panthers here. Year two of the Caleb
4:44Williams-Ben Johnson partnership. Vegas has the Bears implied to score the seventh most points in Week 1. And with Caleb again being
4:51objectively, last year at least, next gen stats, fastest quarterback in the league with the ball in his hands, very much someone that is capable of crushing
4:58through the air and on the ground.
5:00And finally, I got QB 8, Drake May.
5:02Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks here kicking off the season on Monday night foot- on Wednesday night football.
5:06So, keeping with May, my big question for this tier is specific to May. How bad was he really in the playoff
5:12stretch? Cuz we remember, guys, it was pretty rough as a whole, okay? Very tough defenses, Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and Seahawks, but we literally
5:20saw this dude go from averaging 8.9 yards per attempt in the regular season to 6.9 in the playoffs. League-leading completion rate, 72% to 58%.
5:29I'm not trying to make excuses for how he played in the playoffs, and we'll see if he's able to overcome that in a tough
5:35match up against the Seahawks. That is why I have him down here at QB 8, even though he's my QB 3 kind of going into
5:40the season and drafts and everything.
5:42But man, as not good as May was in the playoffs, he still racked up plenty of fantasy points. 17.3 against the
5:49Chargers, 15.2, 14.2, and even in the Super Bowl 17.5. Again, largely on the back of a lot of that rushing production. So, Drake May, maybe not
5:58quite Jayden Daniels of what he can do on the ground, but not too far off, and that does give me confidence to still
6:03start him even in a rough on-paper match-up.
6:06Tier three guys, I got pocket passing gods in winnable match-ups. QB9 Dak Prescott against the Giants Sunday night football, of course, Cowboys-Giants
6:14kicking off the season. Fun fact, last year the Cowboys lost to the Giants in week 18. Dak played the first half of
6:20the game and then went ahead and sat out the rest. The Giants weren't leading for the record at that time, but man, in
6:25full games that Dak has played against the Giants, he has not lost them since 2016.
6:31You got to go back to that game where OBJ busted that slant for 70, hit that crispy moonwalk. Man, been a minute. Dak
6:37really does kind of own the NFC East guys when he's healthy enough to be out there. Anyway, QB10 Jared Goff going up
6:43against the Saints. I think this one could be a sneaky shootout, and Rotowire projections do agree with me. They have Goff throwing for the second most yards
6:49and touchdowns of any quarterback to open up the season. Only the Chargers are implied to score more points than the Lions per our friends in the desert.
6:56QB11 here, I got Matthew Stafford guys going up against the 49ers in Australia.
7:00Aussie Aussie Aussie oi oi oi.
7:03Stafford shredded this group last year guys, 389 yards and three touchdowns, then 280 yards and four touchdowns.
7:09Fingers crossed, you know, I'm recording this Friday afternoon that we don't get a Labor Day, you know, news dump from the NFL about Puka Nacua suspension. As
7:17things stand right now, very much in on Stafford. Don't think that touchdown aggression is going to be too big of an
7:22issue in a match-up that again he spent last year crushing.
7:25Key question for this tier is pretty simple, like should we actually expect less upside from these stationary pocket passers in fantasy land? I don't really
7:32think so guys. If we go back over the past two seasons, look at the most top five weekly fantasy finishes. Lamar
7:38Jackson's got 12, okay. Josh Allen's got 11, Jalen Hurts has 10. After that though, Joe Burrow's got nine and then these are the quarterbacks with eight.
7:46Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Caleb Williams. Of course, we'll take rushing production if we can get it at the
7:53position, but don't discount these quarterbacks who again are doing most of their work through the air still being pretty awesome in fantasy land,
7:59particularly in your leagues with five and six points per passing touchdown.
8:03Tier four, QB1 upside if you squint hard enough. I got QB12 Trevor Lawrence going up against the Browns and hey, this dude
8:09literally was QB1 fantasy points per game during the second half of last season. No more Myles Garrett in Cleveland, that's fantastic. I'm just a
8:17little worried about Rotowire's 28th ranked offensive line entering the year, but again, if you want to rank T-Law as high as like QB9 this week, I would not
8:25be calling you crazy. QB13, I got Jackson Dart. Maybe this is also too low. Again, it's tough.
8:32That's why we have tiers for a reason, but I just think the Cowboys are going to be closer to average than really bad.
8:37I want to get a good look at this Matt Nagy, Brian Callahan, Greg Roman led attack before assuming Dart's going to
8:43be able to be as good as he was last year and we also don't know yet for sure if Malik Nabers is going to be out there
8:48and if he is, if he's going to be at 100%. So, Jackson Dart again, if we see him racking up seven, eight rush
8:53attempts already in week one getting playing design touches as well, he'll definitely be in the top 10 conversations early as next week. Just
9:00want to kind of feel this out at first and see if we have any better options.
9:03QB14, Kyler Murray against the Packers.
9:06No Micah Parsons in this one. So, feeling good about Kyler. Again, would like to see just one week of evidence of
9:11him actually run the ball like we've seen him do in the past before we get too head over heels with the ranking,
9:16but certainly feeling good about his chances of having a nice start to the Vikings tenure here against their division rival. QB15, Brock Purdy at the
9:23Rams again in Australia. One of only four quarterbacks average north of 21 fantasy points per game during the second half of last season. It's just a
9:31match up, guys, because even if Aaron Donald's going to be taking a week or two off to start the year, don't forget
9:35that the Rams invaded that Chief's secondary help shore things up there.
9:39They were already pretty good last season and of course we got that Miles Garrett guy as well. QB 16, Malik Willis. If we're going to stand Malik
9:47Willis, you know, to some extent, talk about that rushing upside, we got to start him against the Raiders, right?
9:52Like what are we doing at this point if not? So, QB 16 feels even a little bit low. He is one of only three
9:57quarterbacks that RotoWire projects to run for 30 plus yards. Maybe Max Crosby just takes over, you know, it's tough to call anything a smash spot for this
10:05Dolphins offense, but Malik Willis QB 16 for me this week, wouldn't be surprised if he even cracks out a top 12 finish.
10:13Key question for this tier, just looking at which quarterbacks were more and less reliant on actual rushing production last season, cuz you can really see
10:19again a bit of a what would be the right word? Gap between guys like Jackson Dart and others. So, last season, guys, Josh
10:27Allen had 38% of his fantasy production come from rushing. Jackson Dart was at 42%. The only guy higher than Dart was
10:34actually Justin Fields at 45%. So, my main takeaway here is just how good and reliant Jackson Dart was on his rushing,
10:41cuz again, in pure fantasy points from rushing, it was Josh Allen and Jackson Dart at the top of the leaderboard. So,
10:47that's why it's so important to see what's going to be going on in New York.
10:50I love the fact that we have Greg Roman there. We obviously saw him do great things with Lamar Jackson and even get
10:55the most out of Justin Herbert in Los Angeles, but we'll see how much influence he has in the passing game. If
11:01we do see Jackson Dart in a similar role as last season though and taking off as much as he wants to do, then all of a
11:06sudden we're going to be looking at someone that again can be a bit of a fantasy cheat code even if the real-life
11:11passing production is waning a bit relative to other quarterbacks in the league.
11:15Tier five, guessing you have better options, but maybe we're in some superflex leagues, so we'll go through them anyway. QB 17, Taylor Shuck at the
11:22Lions. Really do think this could be a sneaky shootout particularly because starting Lions safeties Brian Branch on IR with an Achilles injury and Kirby
11:29Joseph on IR with a knee injury are going to be out for at least the first month of the year. QB 18, I got Baker
11:34Mayfield. I would feel better if Emeka Egbuka was out there with the toe, but similar to the Eagles guys, losing A.J.
11:41Brown, I talked about just the potential for like, hey, maybe Philly's worse off.
11:45Maybe losing that Mike Evans guy isn't going to be a net positive for Tampa Bay. So, they are facing the Bengals, I
11:50get it, but similar to the Cowboys, I think they've added enough sort of, you know, personnel upgrades in the form of
11:55Dexter Lawrence and some of the other pieces. Year two in the Al Golden system. I could just see the Bengals being more average to bad. Verdict
12:02remains out on just how good Tampa's going to be on offense.
12:05QB 19, Jordan Love. I wanted to go higher. He's been up and down in his career starts against Brian Flores.
12:11Overall, against the blitz, which the Vikings do way more than anyone else, he's been 10th in EPA per dropback, 22nd in pass rating since 2023. I do think
12:20the loss of Josh Jacobs leads to more passing in general in Green Bay. I'm going to be much higher on Jordan Love
12:25in these upcoming matchups weeks two through five against the Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Bears, and Cowboys. Two through six, I guess. We'll watch the
12:32film and get better. QB 20, I got Bo Nix going up against the Chiefs. Hasn't exactly crushed it in non-week week week
12:3818 games against Steve Spagnuolo and company. 182 yards, touchdown, and a pick. 295 scoreless yards and then more recently, 215 yards, two touchdowns, and
12:47zero interceptions. So, once again, with some of these other quarterbacks that are coming off an injury or in a new system, I just want to make sure that Bo
12:54Nix truly is back to his mobility, being willing and able to run around before I get him too high up in the ranks.
13:00Broncos also also have the fifth lowest implied team total in week one. Not exactly expecting fireworks in this one.
13:07QB 21, guys.
13:09Patrick Mahomes against the Broncos at home, man. It feels sacrilegious to be ranking Mahomes this low, but when we do look at it last season, this is going to
13:17take us right into our bigger picture question of this tier.
13:20We just didn't see this passing game take a step forward last season at all.
13:23Mahomes got back to averaging north of 20 fantasy points per game, but it was almost entirely due to an upgrade in his
13:28overall rushing production and volume.
13:31Things I don't think are going to still going to be there basically coming off of that ACL injury. So, man, hasn't been
13:36all that good against the Broncos over the years anyway. Like we just haven't seen these booms, you know, in recent performances. Last four against Vic
13:43Fangio, he hasn't thrown for multiple touchdowns even one time. Just really, really tough for me to get behind Mahomes and his passing game lifting off
13:49when the only real changes are Kenneth Walker, who's your running back, future Hall of Famer Cyrus Allen, and Eric Bieniemy not quite doing it for me.
13:59Tier six, we're saying there's a chance.
14:01QB 21, Sam Darnold against the Patriots.
14:03I think there could be some Jordan Love Packers-esque nature to the Seahawks offense. Maybe they do just throw the football more often. That said, don't
14:10have Clint Kubiak in town. I'd like to wait and see what version of Sam Darnold we'll get in before feeling too
14:15confident there. QB 23, I got C.J.
14:17Stroud against the Buffalo Bills.
14:19Actually in the regular season put his best foot forward in terms of EPA per dropback and success rate relative to his previous two seasons. Playoffs were
14:27rough though, and just with Nico Collins being the only show in town in that passing game, tough to get too excited
14:31here.
14:32QB 24, I got Jacoby Brissett against the Chargers. Only the Browns have a lower implied team total than the Cardinals.
14:38Maybe he continues to get away with the garbage time gimmick and everything, but I'm just dubious of the Michael LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett combo. QB 25,
14:45Daniel Jones against the Ravens. He's been practicing in full throughout August. Haven't heard anything terrible about the mobility. Alec Pierce is also
14:53back practicing in full from the ankle.
14:55Maybe I could be wrong, all right? For the first time ever. More like, you know, 10,000. But anyway, I just think Jones coming off the
15:02Achilles, Pierce coming off the ankle against a good Ravens defense that I'm about to talk about more really is a situation I want to fade for the time
15:09being. Again, we'll see how this Colts offense looks. If they look like they the same group that again was dominant the first 10 weeks of last season,
15:16I'll be back here this very next week telling you guys all about it. But for now, I am fading the idea that this
15:22Colts offense is going to be good. And accordingly, guys, my best DST I want to have in fantasy football land outside
15:28the big four, Rams, Texans, Broncos, and Seahawks, is going to be the Baltimore Ravens because they are getting the Colts in week one, Saints in week two,
15:36not a layup but not a bad matchup, obviously. Cowboys in week three, that is the one bad game we might need to
15:41plan around, but after that, Titans, Falcons, and Browns. If you don't have the Ravens DST in fantasy and you don't have one of those top four units, I
15:47would strongly advise going to get them now.
15:51Last tier, tier seven, old dudes and volatile young ins. QB 26, Bryce Young against the Bears. That secondary is all kinds of banged up, guys. About the same
15:59time Bryce Young has cleared 250 passing yards in just seven of his 44 career starts. Not great, Bob. QB 27, Aaron
16:05Rodgers going up against the Falcons. He has not had a top five weekly fantasy finish since leaving the Packers. Maybe he does okay. Again, it's not a horrific
16:13matchup or anything, but you know, A.J.
16:15Terrell, Jessie Bates, Xavier Watts, the strength of the Falcons actually is in that secondary. Wouldn't be surprised if the uh Steelers are really able to lean
16:22on the run game in this one. QB 28, Geno Smith at the Titans. Similar to Jacoby Brissett. I'm not ignorant to the
16:28possibility of this being a better offense, but when Frank Reich is the one calling the plays, I'm just not guessing it's going to happen. QB 29, Cam Ward
16:35against the Jets. Hardly a tough matchup. Jets were dead last in EPA for dropback allowed last season, but man, preseason looked rough. And just with
16:43Cam Ward, as great as the two or three flashes are per game, I need to see more consistency before I can trust him in
16:48fantasy land. QB 30, Kirk Cousins against the Dolphins. We only have one pass catcher to get the football to. I'm not afraid of Dolphins. I think Brock
16:55Bowers is going to have an incredible year. Just don't think that's going to coincide with Kirk Cousins doing much of anything. Again, recording this on
17:01Friday where the Falcons have not yet announced their starter. I'm guessing it's Michael Penix, though, so he's my QB 31 going up against the Steelers, aka
17:08the NFL's most expensive defense. And then QB 32, Deshaun Watson against the Jaguars. Jaguars should be pretty much everyone's pick for survivor, which
17:16maybe means it's not a bad idea to get off them because we know how the NFL goes sometimes, but yeah. Nobody has a
17:22lower implied team total than the Browns in week one. Last point here for this tier, pay attention guys to the injury reports
17:29this week. I'm actually going to be having a weekly Friday show where I kind of go through that for you guys. So,
17:33keep paying attention here if you don't want to exactly be grinding yourself, but this Bears defense is freaking hurt, dog. Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Jones, Jaylon
17:41Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson all dealing with various injuries there. Um and also at safety, Kobe Bryant's on IR, Elijah Hicks, and Xavier Woods also considered
17:50questionable. So, no, I'm not lining up to start Bryce Young, but Tadero McMillan and Jaylen Coker if you are in a bind, I do think there are worse picks
17:58there. But, guys, that's going to wrap it up. So great and refreshing to finally be talking about week one again.
18:03It was a long, cold seven months, you know, between meaningful football games, but we are so back. So, if you like the
18:09video, please like the video and hit that subscribe button helps as well.
18:12Again, going through quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end ranks and tiers each and every week here. Also be with you guys live before
18:18Thursday night football or enter some start/sit stuff, injury updates on uh Friday, doing a game-by-game review with my boy Drayton McFarland on Sunday night, and
18:28then also probably will have some start/sit stuff on Sunday morning if it's not here. I'll tell you where it is, but anyway, I'm Ian Hartitz. Thanks
18:35again for tuning in. Until next time, take care everybody.