Fantasy Football with Ian Hartitz

Brown was mentioned as a potential draft option but was taken off the board before Hartitz could select him, eliminating him from consideration in this draft scenario.

Alvin Kamara, at 31 years old, is battling a knee injury heading into the regular season, raising durability and health concerns for the upcoming year.

Drafted at pick 112 in a tight-end-premium league; got out to practice after not originally being there, putting him on track for week one availability. Ian Hartitz notes this injury/practice status update is noteworthy enough to track.

Hall is a receiving back archetype with upside, but Hartitz dismisses him as a draft target due to his Jets roster context, arguing the risk is avoidable given other options at the range. However, given Gino Smith's age (getting up there), Hall has the skill set to benefit from the trend of older quarterbacks targeting running backs at high rates; 75% of 38+ year old quarterbacks who started 10+ games over the last decade had their running backs finish as top-eight in overall targets. Despite this upside, Hartitz prefers to avoid the Jets situation entirely.

Ian Hartitz ranks Brock Bowers at 102 in FFBC and prefers him over wide receivers in tight-end-premium formats, securing him early to avoid the middle-round tight end run. Bowers was targeted on 31% of his routes against the Patriots for over 100 yards through three quarters before suffering a knee injury in his only preseason game, demonstrating elite route involvement and production potential when healthy. His ADP hovers between 107 and 108. In tight-end-premium league formats, Bowers is positioned as a full-time flex starter and was selected as tight end one in mock drafts through seven rounds, anchoring the starting lineup.

Ian Hartitz expresses concern that Bucky Irving's goal-line role is not as locked in as previously thought, despite making the team; this uncertainty reduces confidence in his touchdown upside and red-zone usage. Additionally, Todd Boyle has a poor track record with injury projections and timelines, so Irving's toe injury volatility should not deter drafting him given the upside potential.

Sub-4K salary on DraftKings week one main slate with a full-time role, making him a value play for daily fantasy.

Ian Hartitz expresses strong skepticism about Carnell Tate, stating he's 'doing nothing' for him. He cites Rich Reebar's offseason stat showing that among 34 first-round receivers averaging fewer than four receptions per game for their career, 47% failed to reach WR3 or better and 59% failed to reach top-24 status; the odds lean heavily toward Tate failing to be a top-24 receiver. Hartitz emphasizes the big-picture view of Tate's profile is not good, particularly given he's a questionable player in a very bad offense.

Ian Hartitz has drafted Christian McCaffrey multiple times but is comfortable managing exposure rather than targeting 100% allocation, spreading CMC exposure across his teams. More significantly, Hartitz expresses hesitation about McCaffrey's draft value compared to Saquon Barkley, noting concerns about McCaffrey's age and touch workload after big touch seasons. Despite McCaffrey's receiving production advantage (his receiving production alone last season exceeded Saquon's total production), Hartitz prefers Saquon Barkley, stating 'I'd rather I feel more comfortable with Saquon Barkley, as crazy as it sounds, than Christian McCaffrey this year, too,' citing Barkley's arguably better offensive situation with Sean Manion.

Christian Watson is identified as a top-tier wide receiver option in this draft range, grouped with Parker Washington, DeVonta Smith, and Jameson Williams as Hartitz's four best receivers in a single tier; Watson is called a 'top dog' and positioned as the next best available wide receiver after tier breaks. He was drafted as wide receiver one in a tight-end-premium league mock through seven rounds, indicating confidence in his role and production.

Cole Kmet is part of a tight-end run in rounds 6–7 alongside Sam LaPorta, Harold Fannon, Isaiah Likely, and Travis Kelce. Ian Hartitz notes this run is 'music to our ears' because it allows teams to acquire two tight ends in a tight-end-premium league, positioning Kmet as available in that draft window.

Hartitz advocated for a 'double tap' strategy on Loveland in the second round, citing his target share over his last five games as a starter matching Trey McBride's full-year target share; Hartitz and Silva ranked Loveland over McBride in a vacuum, positioning him as a unique board advantage over the typical Derrick Henry selection at that range. Loveland was also selected as a second-round pick in a tight-end-premium league format (FFP streets draft) and positioned as a full-time flex starter alongside Brock Bowers, with potential for a Bears stack if Roma Downey returns to the team.

D'Andre Swift has gained additional value due to a knee injury to a competing back, elevating his role and opportunity share heading into the regular season.

Potential fifth round running back target if he returns from injury; historically mentioned as an ideal RB option in that range, though availability uncertain in this particular draft. Hartitz previously favored Swift in round five as an alternative to David Montgomery.

Hartitz is strongly bullish on Montgomery, arguing the 'laziest analysis' dismisses his receiving profile when it actually exceeds Kairen's, Javonte Williams, and Travis Etienne—all players being drafted ahead of him. Hartitz predicts Montgomery will 'go nuts this year and everyone's going to be shocked,' positioning him as a breakout candidate. Montgomery is the primary RB in committee with Woody Marks, getting carries in tough matchups and against good defenses where the team is playing by one score; he was brought in as an efficient runner to complement Marks' inefficiency. Hartitz takes Montgomery everywhere as a value play.

Hartitz sees Demon Achane as protected from negative game script risk in the Texans offense due to the team's strong defense, which should prevent blowout losses that would sideline the running back. The Texans' defensive strength mitigates the typical downside of a volume-dependent RB.

Hartitz suggested Henry as a draft option if he falls a few more picks in the mid-round range, positioning him as a natural fallback RB in a format where RB depth has dried up but value remains available.

Watson was Hartitz's starting QB in a 32-team league, reflecting the necessity of early QB selection in ultra-deep formats where QB depth is severely limited.

Smith is positioned as the next-best WR pick available at the draft range where Javonte Williams was being considered, offering a value alternative to chasing RB at premium prices. Hartitz views Smith as a preferable option in this tier.

Hartitz expressed discomfort with Pickens' draft price, citing a personal philosophy of avoiding premium prices for players who have never commanded premium prices before. This suggests Pickens is overvalued relative to his historical ADP and represents a poor value at current draft cost.

Harold Fannon is part of a tight-end run in rounds 6–7 alongside Sam LaPorta, Isaiah Likely, Travis Kelce, and Cole Kmet. Hartitz notes this run is 'music to our ears' because it allows teams to acquire two tight ends in a tight-end-premium league, positioning Fannon as available in that draft window.

Isaiah Likely is part of a tight-end run in rounds 6–7 alongside Sam LaPorta, Harold Fannon, Travis Kelce, and Cole Kmet. Hartitz notes this run is 'music to our ears' because it allows teams to acquire two tight ends in a tight-end-premium league, positioning Likely as available in that draft window.

In three-wide-receiver full PPR leagues, Ian Hartitz ranks Ja'Marr Chase below Puka Nacua, explicitly disagreeing with the consensus that ranks Chase higher. Hartitz states the Chase-over-Puka preference is 'just wrong,' indicating Chase is overvalued relative to Nacua in that format.

Jared Goff is identified as one of the two biggest risers in six-point touchdown leagues (alongside Justin Herbert). Hartitz emphasizes the Lions' easiest projected schedule in the league and notes they had the worst fumble luck last year, expecting regression and more volume/possessions. He also bets the Lions to have the most wins in the NFL this year, positioning Goff as a strong value play in Superflex leagues.

Hartitz pitched Williams as a potential top-15 RB if he stays healthy for 17 games, citing the Cowboys' offensive strength and red-zone opportunity potential. However, he expressed concern about chasing him at premium prices when he went in the eighth round last year. More critically, Hartitz highlights a concerning trend: Williams' yards per route run have decreased for three consecutive seasons, raising durability and efficiency concerns that make him a dead-zone RB despite the improved talent pool this year. Hartitz struggles to paint a picture where Williams stays healthy for 17 games, and the declining efficiency metrics compound the risk.

Despite acknowledging Javante Williams could be a top-15 RB if healthy for 17 games, Hartitz highlights a concerning trend: his yards per route run have decreased for three consecutive seasons, raising durability and efficiency concerns that make him a dead-zone RB despite the improved talent pool. Lacks the target-earning profile of other backs like Jeremiah Love and Bree Hall.

Locked up as the RB1 in the draft. Jamonte Williams is locked up as the RB1 in the draft strategy alongside David Montgomery as the RB2, securing the running back depth for the team.

Despite Washington's offensive line concerns and preseason struggles (immediately pressured and sacked in limited snaps), Ian Hartitz remains confident in Jaden Daniels' fantasy outlook. He cites Daniels' rookie year performance with a horrible offensive line where it didn't matter whatsoever and Terry McLaurin still reached career-high points per game. Hartitz still feels pretty confident about Jaden Daniels and McLaurin's fantasy outlook.

With Kenneth Gainwell out of the picture, Warren is positioned to compete as a fringe RB1 every week. He was on 289 routes last year without Gainwell and his target share doubled to 16%. Ian Hartitz notes Aaron Rodgers targets running backs at the seventh and third highest rate in the league over the last two years, and Warren is the key beneficiary given Rodgers' reluctance to throw downfield at this stage of his career. Warren is also an elite pass protector.

Love was highlighted as an outlier RB option that earns targets, contrasting with Javonte Williams' lack of target involvement. Hartitz used Love as an example of a back whose target-earning profile makes him more valuable than typical dead-zone RBs, positioning him alongside Breece Hall as receiving backs worth considering.

Jonathan Brooks is in the same draft range as Tony Pollard, but Ian Hartitz prefers Marshon Lloyd over both in the middle rounds. This preference suggests Brooks is not Hartitz's target in that tier, with Lloyd emerging as the clear choice when forced to pick between the three.

Drafted at the turn (round 1/2 transition) in a tight-end-premium league, indicating his draft position in that specific format.

In Superflex leagues, Ian Hartitz identifies Kyler Murray as undervalued by the market; he notes that 'no one's projecting Kyler Murray and Malik Willis correctly' and that these players can be built around as QB2 options that will 'compete weekly to be a top 12 guy just because of their legs and what they offer,' making them valuable late-round targets.

In Superflex leagues, Ian Hartitz identifies Malik Willis as undervalued by the market; he notes that 'no one's projecting Kyler Murray and Malik Willis correctly' and that these players can be built around as QB2 options that will 'compete weekly to be a top 12 guy just because of their legs and what they offer,' making them valuable late-round targets.

Ian Hartitz positions Don Stribbling to go over Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft, suggesting Harrison Jr. is overvalued relative to Stribbling in this range.

Preseason performance has positioned him for potential role expansion; could assume a Katon Mitchell-like role with five touches in week one if Ashton Jenty's injury is managed. Ian Hartitz maintains him as an elite stash with usable production down the stretch, especially if the team nurses Jenty's injury against Miami.

Hartitz expressed preference for Collins over AJ Brown, positioning him as a superior value option at that draft juncture; he noted that if Collins returns healthy, the conversation about tight-end strategy changes, indicating conditional upside tied to injury status and recovery.

In three-wide-receiver full PPR leagues, Ian Hartitz ranks Puka Nacua over Ja'Marr Chase, explicitly disagreeing with the consensus that ranks Chase higher. Hartitz states 'I think that's just wrong' regarding the Chase-over-Puka preference, indicating strong conviction that Nacua is undervalued relative to Chase in that format.

Ian Hartitz argues that negative sentiment toward Quentin Johnston is unjustifiable and insane given he's a first-round receiver who has improved every year; public outrage creates value and allows him to fall in drafts. Johnston showed last year he can outtarget Lamarr Jackson, which is in his range of outcomes now playing with Mike McDaniel. Hartitz dismisses drop-rate criticism, noting that Malik Neighbors, Jameson Williams, Lamarr Jackson, and Roma Downey all have very similar drop rates; Johnston's drop issue was primarily a rookie-year problem and hasn't been a problem over his three seasons as a whole.

Waiver wire running back option for building winning teams; can be found with 20+ touches on waivers or stashed and started to construct a winning roster. Part of Hartitz's championship RB2 strategy alongside Woody Marks and Audrey Estto.

Sam LaPorta is part of a tight-end run in rounds 6–7 alongside Harold Fannon, Isaiah Likely, Travis Kelce, and Cole Kmet. Hartitz notes this run is 'music to our ears' because it allows teams to acquire two tight ends in a tight-end-premium league, positioning LaPorta as available in that draft window.

Ian Hartitz expresses strong preference for Saquon Barkley over Christian McCaffrey in draft strategy, citing Barkley's ability to easily outscore McCaffrey and his placement in an arguably better offense now with Sean Mahomes. Despite McCaffrey's receiving production advantage (CMC's receiving production alone last season exceeded Saquon's total production), Hartitz states he feels more comfortable with Saquon Barkley and takes him everywhere.

Stefon Diggs is identified as Terry McLaurin's steepest target competition probably of his career at this point in the Washington Commanders offense, which is not expected to be great.

Despite Terry McLaurin's historical resilience and career-high points per game last season, Ian Hartitz expresses concern about the Washington Commanders offense. Stefon Diggs represents McLaurin's steepest target competition probably of his career at this point, and the offensive line is expected to be bad (ranked 22nd after Laram Tonso injury, down from top 12 before the injury). While Jaden Daniels had a horrible offensive line in his rookie year and it didn't impact his fantasy production, the combination of Diggs' presence and offensive line weakness creates uncertainty.

Tony Pollard was positioned as a last-stop running back option in the middle rounds, but Ian Hartitz prefers Marshon Lloyd in the same range and would start Lloyd over Pollard in Week 1, indicating diminished confidence in Pollard's immediate production and role. When forced to choose between the two for week one deployment, Hartitz easily selects Lloyd.

Travis Etienne, previously considered a dead-zone back, has gained significant value with Devin Nil out for the entire year on injured reserve, elevating his role and opportunity in the Jacksonville backfield. Ian Hartitz cites Etienne as part of the 'dead zone' RB tier that he argues is significantly better than it has ever been, suggesting improved upside and value in that range compared to historical seasons.

Travis Kelce is part of a tight-end run in rounds 6–7 alongside Sam LaPorta, Harold Fannon, Isaiah Likely, and Cole Kmet. Hartitz notes this run is 'music to our ears' because it allows teams to acquire two tight ends in a tight-end-premium league, positioning Kelce as available in that draft window.

McBride's full-year target share served as a comparison benchmark for Loveland's five-game starter target share; Hartitz and Silva ranked Loveland over McBride in a vacuum, suggesting Loveland offers better value at the draft range despite McBride's established role.

Hartitz drafted Woody Marks everywhere in home leagues as a waiver-wire RB2 strategy. Elite tier-one injury-away stash candidate; handled 16.5 touches per game through the postseason after returning from injury, demonstrating he can start every week despite team inefficiency. Committee concerns are overblown—David Montgomery gets carries primarily in tough matchups and against good defenses, but Marks is the primary back. Exemplifies how championship teams can be built by identifying 20+ touches on the waiver wire mid-season.