0:00It's time for everybody's favorite game show. Is your offense great, or does that defense just suck really, really bad, EJ?
0:07Ridiculous week one, points all over the place. Going into Monday night, this is the highest scoring week one in the Super Bowl era.
0:14I think we had 10 teams put up 30 plus.
0:18A lot of really, really good offense. And correspondingly, a lot of very disappointing defense.
0:22We're going to talk about a lot of that today.
0:25We're going to talk about lots of it. The scoring was off the charts, literally.
0:30Bears-Panthers highest scoring opener ever in 107 years. That's ridiculous.
0:33Typically at this time of year, we're talking about defenses being ahead of offenses and waiting for that stuff to gel.
0:40Not so much. This isn't your grandfather's NFL. We're going to put up points and do it in bunches.
0:46This show is going to be a little bit different than what we've done in the past, but I think it's a fun one.
0:54We're going to categorize truths and lies from week one.
0:57We tell you this every year. And, you know, last year was a perfect example.
1:02Both the teams that ended up in the Super Bowl had not great losses in week one last year.
1:08Everybody overreacted. Things leveled out over a 17-game season, as they always do.
1:12So don't read too much into week one. We're going to try and sort through what we think is true, what's going
1:19to last, and what was a lie. What kind of looked great or not great, but might not last.
1:25I think it's a fun show. First example of a truth, Seahawks defense.
1:29We just talked about all the offense. They're ready to roll.
1:33There were some losses in personnel. There were some losses in coaching as well, but this team did not look like they were skipping a beat at all.
1:42On the second pick that Drake May threw, watch the safeties on all 22.
1:46We're going to throw it up for you. When Spoon and Love are communicating this well, almost telepathically, this early in the
1:53season, as soon as Spoon leaves that seam and starts to go to the outside, Love moves as if he got the memo via, you know, Instawire communication.
2:02It is instantaneous. I mean, faster than I can say this, he's already moving and making the pick.
2:08Oh, you're doing that. That means I need to do this again to make sure that those gaps close in the zone.
2:15And the Hawks are doing that in week one.
2:18Like you shouldn't be moving in concert that well this quickly.
2:21The Hawks already are. And that is a bad sign for opponents.
2:25It means they're picking up that dark side defense is picking up exactly where it left off.
2:30They were suffocating at the end of last year, certainly in the Super Bowl.
2:35It doesn't look like they missed a beat, even though, again, they've lost some personnel.
2:40In fact, it kind of looks like they've picked up exactly where they were, which is crazy because, again, teams have a lot of turnover in the offseason.
2:48Offenses catch up, people adjust, and it doesn't look like the Hawks have lost a step.
2:54And that's kind of terrifying. Especially with all the changes that they've had on defense.
2:58You know, we talked about how they kind of thinned out due to free agency, and then you throw in injuries there as well.
3:06It's not the entire same unit as last year, but they, I mean, you couldn't really tell on tape.
3:12They were still just as fluid together. The communication was great.
3:16They weren't really busting in coverage. You know, we'll kind of see how the pass rush goes as the year goes on.
3:23I saw what Boye did in Cincinnati in week one, and it makes me think, ooh, they might kind of miss that.
3:30I understand he didn't live up to what Hawks fans hoped he would be, but he had himself a whale of a first game in Cincinnati.
3:38So I do think he will be missed, which honestly brings me to my first truth.
3:43We had talked about this during Summer Series, how the Bengals have a real defense.
3:48They look like they had a real defense against Tampa.
3:51This is one of the best tackle tandems in the league.
3:54You got Tristan Wurfs, you got Luke Kadecki, and with neither Cassius Howell or Boye Amoffa getting a single double team the
4:01entire day because of the existence of Dexter Lawrence, both of them got four pressures in this game.
4:07And that to me is significant because it used to be either Trey Hendrickson gets it done or nobody gets it done.
4:14Now you got two guys in this rotation each getting four pressures.
4:18It wasn't on Dexter to do everything. And, you know, Boye got the pressure that led to the strip sack fumble return for touchdown.
4:26Boye got that on Luke Kadecki, who's a really good right tackle.
4:29You know, Cash has had a pressure on Tristan Wurfs.
4:33Now he didn't get a hit on it, but the fact that he was able to run the arc at an eight
4:40yard depth, like who runs the hoop at eight yards on Tristan Wurfs?
4:44Like that's, that's really impressive. You know, the tight ends were really struggling against Cassius as well.
4:49Like they tried to block with the tight end a few times, got a couple extra pressures on that.
4:55Like if you're getting consistent pass rush here and we did like their secondary on paper, this could be a real defense.
5:02They forced four turnovers against Tampa. And I would argue that was one of the main reasons why they won the game
5:09is because anytime Tampa started to get something going on offense, they would lose the ball.
5:14So you give Burrow that kind of support and they can win games like this one where Jamar Chase gets 12 yards on two catches.
5:22I don't remember the last time they were able to win a game that way where like Joe didn't really pop off.
5:29Jamar didn't really pop off. You had like one big throw to T late.
5:34You had Mike Gusecki doing work as a big slot, but they didn't win the normal way that Cincy wins.
5:40And it's because they actually have balance as a team.
5:43Yeah. And Cassius Howell, I think, got those four pressures off 12 true pass rush sets.
5:48And that's a crazy high percentage. Again, considering who's going against, that's even more context.
5:53If we're giving context for the Bucs side, I know a lot of Bucs fans are overreacting.
5:59I think the idea that the Bucs are bad is a lie.
6:02Speaking of lies, like are they clumsy? Sure. They had four fumbles.
6:06They lost them all. That's hard to do in the first place.
6:10And one of them got statistically unlikely. Very, very.
6:13And you will see some regression to mean. And again, one of those got returned for, you know, six points.
6:19So and they still only lost to Burrow and company by six points total.
6:24So, again, I think the Bucs will even out.
6:27Relax, Tampa fans. It's OK if they just hang on to the ball or don't lose them all.
6:32I think they'll be fine. But Cincinnati's defense definitely looks like it has some teeth again.
6:38And that should be a fun and welcome change for Bengals fans this year.
6:42Rolling back into other things that we think are true.
6:45This is a little bit of a truth and a little bit of a lie wrapped in one.
6:51The 49ers are who we thought they are. They are great and dangerous when healthy, but they are rarely healthy.
6:57So the truth is, if they're all in the field, they're going to look like they did.
7:03The other truth is they're not all going to be on the field.
7:07So I'll attack the first part first. Mike Evans was custom tailored, custom built, if you will, for this offense.
7:13And Kyle Shanahan couldn't wait to call plays for him.
7:16And he did over and over and over again.
7:19And unsurprisingly, future Hall of Famer Mike Evans won over and over and over again, especially versus single coverage.
7:25I liked Shanahan's approach to this game. I think he treated it like a boxing match.
7:30And I put this up on Twitter, X, whatever you want to call it.
7:35The first quarter, he was just testing them out.
7:38He was just throwing some really vanilla jabs. You didn't see all the really cool run motions.
7:43We'll highlight some of those, but those came later.
7:46He just kind of tested them out. If I do this, what do you do?
7:51Oh, if I do this, what do you do?
7:54Then he opened up on Shula. Shula. Then came the body shots, if you will, to the defense to make them tighten up.
8:01And then the first TD, they cracked it open.
8:04After that, the floodgates were open. Shanahan just unloaded on Shula.
8:07That was not a fair fight. Somebody should have thrown the towel.
8:11And there were just some really, really creative. I mean, you talk about the inserts.
8:16I'm still not 100% sure if it's legal, what they were doing with use check.
8:21Did you see the Shanahan quote talking about Tyreek?
8:24Because Tyreek, this is again a Mike McDaniel thing.
8:26Tyreek in Miami and Shanahan talking about that. He says, we call it cheat motion.
8:31Right? Because he's kind of moving towards the line.
8:34He's starting to turn the corner as the ball snaps.
8:37So he has all the momentum. So this is Shanahan's kind of admission, I think, of, hey, can't beat him.
8:44Join him. Like, I'm going to push the limit.
8:47Well, if you're not going to call it, that means it's legal.
8:50That's right. That's right. Also, use check is so good at timing.
8:54Oh, perfect. Because he just puts his foot in the ground.
8:58And right as he's turning and opening his hip, that's when the ball is snapped.
9:02So it's like his body momentum isn't going forward.
9:05His shoulders are like starting to be pointed forward.
9:08But the fact that he's able to kind of carry that momentum, he's not starting from a three-point stand.
9:14So like he's getting to the line of scrimmage really fast on this.
9:18And some of the concepts they got, like Dan Casey pointed out, it was like, why zone and counter mixed together?
9:25It was so interesting. But it worked. Like they popped an explosive on it.
9:30I am fascinated to see how this develops as the season goes on.
9:34Because it's not like that motion didn't exist before.
9:37It's just they didn't do it like that. Where it's like, as the ball's being snapped.
9:42It's being weaponized now. And again, the 49ers are the biggest tease in the league.
9:46Because when they're healthy, it's like this. And we say, oh my God, Shanahan's a great coach.
9:52And then everybody goes, yep, they haven't won anything.
9:55And you're like, when he's healthy, he wins things.
9:58He beats people up in the running game, in the passing game.
10:01It always looks like this. The problem is the injuries are already here.
10:06They don't even get a window. Stribbling, gone for a month.
10:09Jake Tongass, MCL injury described as not good by Shanahan.
10:12Unspecified timeline for recovery. Alfred Collins, out for the year.
10:15By the way, cruelest thing ever. Fly all the way to Australia.
10:19Blow your patellar tendon and then have to spend like 16 hours plus on an airplane on the way back.
10:26That's gotta suck. Flight from hell. It's already the flight from hell.
10:29That's worse. And he joins Michael Williams, who's on the pup.
10:33Nate Hobbs is on IR. Sam Ukiwano on IR.
10:36Nick Martin on IR. This defense is already full on the injured list.
10:40And we're one game in. So I'm looking at it.
10:43It's like Mike Evans versus the world. Mike Evans hasn't been the healthiest guy of late.
10:48So I want everybody to stay on the field because it is such a fun offensive product to watch.
10:54Do I think that's going to happen? I gotta say, I think that's a lie.
10:59I can't believe they're going to stay healthy on offense because they're already not.
11:03I mean, the good news is Fred's healthy and Bosa's healthy and Upton Stout's healthy.
11:08And through Fred Warner, all things are possible. He was unbelievable in that game.
11:13As long as he's good, they're fine. Like they're absolutely fine.
11:16Talk about a drop off in linebacker play. Going from the Niners to the Colts.
11:21Not a bigger one in the league. Good God.
11:24So we had talked about it in the Colts summer series episode of like, hey, I'm worried about their ability to cover at the linebacker position.
11:32And I foolishly at the time cursed them and said, I'm not worried about their corners.
11:37I'm worried about their linebacker. Well, I kind of feel like I should be worried about everybody because the Colts corners couldn't cover either.
11:45They played man coverage at an obnoxiously high rate, you know, in the field, which is how next gen stats defined it.
11:52So it's between the 10 and the 20 yard line.
11:55So between their 10 and your own start of the red zone.
11:59So in the field, the Colts played man coverage at a 61.5% rate.
12:03That is absurd. And especially when they were getting absolutely cooked while doing it, they allowed 13.4 yards per attempt, fourth worse
12:10in man coverage, but while doing man coverage at like the highest rate.
12:14So that's, that's worse if you have that large of a sample size and you're still in the bottom four in terms
12:21of yards per attempt allowed 62.5% success rate allowed in man coverage.
12:25Sauce, Ward and Wally all combined for 138 yards allowed just in man by themselves.
12:30Doesn't count everybody else. If you do count everybody else, they allowed 220 passing yards in man coverage and they just kept doing it.
12:37I have no idea why, not to mention, you know, the linebackers we brought up.
12:42But the one guy that Colts fans were hoping they could hang their hat on with CJ Allen, he didn't play a single snap.
12:50He got out snapped by Bryce Boettcher who played about a third of their snaps.
12:55So your second round pick at linebacker, who by the way, neither one of us really thought he could cover in space either.
13:02Your second round pick at linebacker isn't playing. Your fourth round pick at linebacker who's better in coverage is.
13:08Nobody can cover anyway, including one of the corners that you just paid.
13:12The other corner who you spent two first round picks on and a bunch of money.
13:17Like if you're, if you're investing this much on defense and you can't do the one thing that your DC wants to
13:24do, which is be able to man people up.
13:27What do you got? I don't know what the Colts can do about this.
13:32If they just don't have anybody who can match up in space at all.
13:36Well, one thing we can say definitively is that the Indianapolis Colts defensive staff did not listen to the summer series because
13:43all summer long, we said, if you can't play man, don't play man.
13:47They can't play man. They played it at an incredibly high rate.
13:51That is something they're going to have to fix going forward.
13:55But to your point, fix how, right? If that's not working and it's not open to you, you come, you become predictable
14:02on defense, just like an offense that can't run the ball throwing it all the time.
14:07If you can't play man, opposing offenses know that they're just going to dial up zone beaters to carve you into little tiny pieces on the field.
14:15And you're not going to have another punch to throw.
14:18So it's not like they haven't spent the money or that they don't have the talent.
14:24But right now that piece of their scheme is not matching up in terms of how they're calling it and the results they're getting.
14:31They can't continue that. Like that is not a level that you can kind of go, oh, we'll tweak it a little bit and it'll get better.
14:40It was just a couple of explosives or that.
14:43No, it was not. It was bad across the board, as you said, from everybody, from the secondary, from the linebackers.
14:49And you're going to have to adjust in a fairly major way or you're going to continue to get cooked.
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16:40And with that, let's get back to it. There was only one team based on what we saw in week one that
16:47I think the Colts could do that same plan against and have it work.
16:51And it's Cleveland. Yeah. Yeah. Browns are the leaders in the clubhouse right now to struggle badly.
16:57This is my third truth. So all off season, we heard the drumbeat about Miami's going to be terrible.
17:03They're young and they're figuring out they're a year away from being a year away.
17:08Understood. Arizona was the other sort of poster child for tank-a-thon, if you will.
17:12I'm sorry, but after week one, Cleveland looks ready to take that title of the worst team.
17:17Arizona's going to surprise a little bit. We'll talk about them.
17:21Miami still has a lot of work to do.
17:24They'll be in the running, but Cleveland, out of the 30 teams that have played so far because we're recording this before
17:31Monday Night Football, they were 26th in EPA per play, total at negative 0.24.
17:35For those of you that don't speak EPA, that's not great.
17:39They were tied for last. Every time you snap the ball, you lose points.
17:43That's crazy. Just don't do it. Don't snap the ball.
17:46But they have to. Tied for last in sacks allowed.
17:50They were dead last, 30th in sack percentage allowed, 16.7%.
17:53Despite being only the 20th worst team in pressure percentage allowed.
17:56So they only allowed pressure at the 20th worst rate, but they allowed sacks at the 30th worst rate.
18:02Not a great combo. The run game wasn't terrible.
18:05It was mid-pack in most stats. It was not great.
18:08But by comparison, it was a whole lot better.
18:11The passing game was tough to watch outside of the Boston TD.
18:15Boston TD, that was pretty. They have a lot to clean up.
18:19Unfortunately, everybody focusing on the offense and Watson and how inept that was, the defense wasn't any better.
18:25They were last in pressure percentage generated at only 4%.
18:28They were 21st in sack percentage. 28th, again, out of 30 teams in passing yards per attempt allowed at, get this, 10.65.
18:35That's per attempt, not per completion. That means every time you even think about throwing the ball, you're getting 11 yards.
18:42What? That's horrible. 27th in completion percentage allowed, 78%.
18:44Most passing TDs allowed so far. Four, no interceptions and only one PBU.
18:49So much like your point about the Colts, where do you go?
18:52It's not like, well, we can lean on our defense if our offense isn't really clicking while they catch up.
18:59Oh, our offense is going to score a bunch of points because our defense is horrible.
19:04Nope. Both units were bouncing off the bottom of the league.
19:07And the only thing it looks like they can kind of hang their hat on after one game, which again is a
19:14small sample size, is a decent, not great running game.
19:18Cleveland is in for a long season. And to your point about the Colts as well, what do they do?
19:24How do you pivot? None of us liked Watson being named the starting quarterback, but it's not like they have a lot better options waiting in the wings.
19:33So I mean, Shador is better than that. He's better than that.
19:37I'm not saying they would have won the game, but you owe it to the fans to not do this again.
19:43I, and if they do it again, especially like if, if they're, if they put him on the field against Tampa and
19:50Baker goes off and Deshaun plays like that again, that to me, like there is no greater humiliation ritual than, than doing
19:57that to the fan, to your own fans. And maybe some fans want to see it right.
20:03To prove the point. Sure. That they made the wrong decision, but I kind of feel like we're well past that.
20:09Everybody knows they made the wrong decision. And I understand some of the reasons why they made the decision at the time,
20:16not for bringing on Deshaun, but for, for letting Baker go.
20:20Like, I guess there was some personality conflicts in the building, but at the same time, shouldn't that just be on the coach to figure?
20:28I don't know. That's a whole discussion for another day.
20:31You could kind of squint and understand them thinking that Baker wasn't going to be their future.
20:37There is no way to understand the corresponding decision of bringing in Deshaun and giving up the picks and paying in the money.
20:44So it wasn't just one mistake. It was two.
20:47And the second mistake was far worse. Both of them ended up being the worst possible case scenario in terms of Baker turning out to be great elsewhere.
20:56And Deshaun being horrifically bad in Cleveland. And if you continue to put him out there, you know, and especially if Baker
21:03goes off against you while Deshaun still looks like that, that to me would just put a button on the entire thing
21:10of like, we fucked up twice and we're making our fans sit through it and watch.
21:15And I, I just, I can't abide by that.
21:18Yeah. The tale of that dragon is far from over financially as well.
21:22And Cleveland's going to have to deal with that again, because of how they structured the deal.
21:27It's just because you paid him all that money.
21:30Other teams have moved on. The Broncos moved on from Russell Wilson when they realized that was a mistake and the Browns
21:37are going to have to do something similar or Todd Monken's first year in Cleveland is going to look a lot like this.
21:44And so unfortunately, I think that's a truth. Keeping it in the AFC North, my next truth.
21:50Honestly, we already talked about this game, but I want to talk about the other side of it a little bit more.
21:57Declan Doyle. He's the man. Like we knew he would be, but this game just kind of confirmed like he is the man.
22:04I think he did a phenomenal job in his inaugural game as the Ravens offensive coordinator.
22:09The plan that he used, not just to exploit the Colts man coverage, but also to confirm what coverages they were in
22:16just to make it easier on Lamar. I thought it was awesome.
22:20We knew they were going to be a heavy under center team.
22:24They obviously were 53.1% under center rate, fifth highest this week as of us recording this 19.8 yard average formation width, which
22:31means they were on average, the fourth most condensed offense in the league.
22:3567% shift in motion rate. And in particular, the one thing I want to highlight 37% nub rate, which means, okay, we
22:42got trips to one side and then we have a nub to the other side, whether it's a tight end on the
22:49line of scrimmage, or in some cases it was a jumbo tackle.
22:53It was a sixth offensive lineman. And they did that almost 11% of the time this week, which was up there among every single team.
23:01I think it was top five among every single team.
23:04And what that led to was really easy coverage IDs.
23:07And so part of the reason why they were able to tear this man coverage apart is they made it easier for
23:14Lamar to know when it was man and when it was zoned.
23:18You look at this big catch to Andrews second quarter trips to the field, jumbo tackle to the boundary.
23:24You have sauce Gardner over an offensive tackle. Gee, I wonder what the coverage is.
23:29It's probably zone. And so it's on Lamar to then flip his head around, identify, okay, is it middle field closed, middle
23:36field open, find the space, attack the space, easy first down.
23:39We then go later in the quarter. This is the long touchdown to Zay.
23:44Justice Hill lined up out wide, Zay in the backfield.
23:47It's just trips to the field, but you flip the running back and the receiver to try to get a man zone indicator.
23:54Defense is showing zone because you have a corner lined up outside on the running back and it is indeed a fire zone.
24:02Kind of looks like man on tape, but they're just playing it really tight.
24:06It's a zone match with a pressure. So the linebackers blitzing.
24:10The safety's coming down playing hot coverage like you normally would if a safety is flying down to play hot coverage on a running back.
24:18But again, it's not a running back. It's Zay Flowers.
24:21They're not going to put Zay in the backfield to run a flat route, right?
24:26Like it's if they're designing something for him and the safety has to understand that.
24:30So it's an angle route. Safety overshoots it. Zay gets an easy catch and run and he just houses it.
24:37Weird part about it, by the way, linebacker slowed up before he hit Lamar.
24:41Like he had a free run at Lamar and I don't know if he just didn't want to draw a penalty or
24:48if he thought Lamar was going to shake him, but he slowed up and didn't affect the throw, even though the blitz technically worked.
24:56You got a free runner. And so they didn't get the benefit of the blitz working because Lamar was really unimpeded, delivered
25:03an easy strike to Zay and you get a 54 yard score.
25:07So I thought it was great all around by Declan using formation and motion to give Lamar easy pictures.
25:13And then the Colts just on their end could not cover at all.
25:17First thing about that linebacker pulling up is a good point made by an analyst yesterday.
25:22I forget which one or I'd credit them, but said, look, you've spent all of August avoiding that guy.
25:28You cannot touch him in practice. And now week one, you got about that.
25:32You got to turn it on and lay into him with everything you've got.
25:37Again, avoiding all the roughing the passer conditions, which are many.
25:40But, you know, we saw a bunch of guys kind of almost sort of two hand touch.
25:46Like I got there, coach. I'm good. Right. Oh no, this is live bullets.
25:50I need to knock this guy down. So that little bit of hesitation cost them deeply there.
25:56Zay had a tremendous first half ended up pulling a hamstring, but it sounds like it's not serious.
26:01They said if it was a playoff game, he would have been back in there.
26:06That's very good news because he put up 150 yards in this offense in the first half before basically not playing the entire second half.
26:14And one of the coolest things I saw about this is sometimes when coaches leave, there's bad blood.
26:20Sometimes there's a ton of support and everybody's excited about it.
26:23So Chris Emma posted this on Twitter after the Bears posted 59 points.
26:28A member of the coaching staff looked at his phone and yelled out, oh, Declan put up 41.
26:33The first branch of the Ben Johnson coasting tree caught the admiration of his former peers.
26:38That's how it's supposed to be really cool to see.
26:42So you can tell what their opinion of Declan is, which is, hey man, we want to see him go on and
26:49carry on the success elsewhere in the league. And we said it in summer series that this pairing Lamar, a very experienced,
26:56very accurate quarterback paired with Declan Doyle, who is obviously a young, hot offensive team had a chance to go off.
27:02It was basically like the Ben and Caleb pairing, but with a much more experienced version of Caleb starting at a higher
27:09place with way more experience in the NFL understanding, like you said, zone, man, where to go with the football.
27:16Some people said, oh, we think he's going to struggle under center, which was odd to me because he played some of
27:23it in college and he was actually really good at it.
27:26So it's not like he hasn't done it. But early returns on the Baltimore offense are outstanding and it's not terribly surprising.
27:33I, for one, I'm happy to see it because Lamar operating that offense at that level again is must-see TV.
27:40One small break, then we're right back to the show.
27:43I promise. If you're a business owner listening to this, just like me and EJ are, we're about to enter one of
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28:45All offseason, we heard from Chicago's front office that they had done enough on defense.
28:50If you have the fourth most expensive defense in the league, could be third depending on how you account for bonuses and everything else.
28:58You have a top five most expensive defense in the NFL, and that's it.
29:02That's all you get. You're doing it wrong. They missed 20% of their tackles across the board.
29:07One out of five. You're never going to be good with that.
29:11They only stuffed one run, 5.3%. That was good for 29th out of 30th in the league.
29:17Only the Jets stuffed less. They stuffed none. They gave up 5.68 yards per carry against the rush.
29:22They only contested 5.9% of the throws. That's 26th out of 30 teams.
29:27Gave up almost seven yards of yak per reception.
29:29Per catch, 6.78 extra yards every time. They allowed three passing TDs that's tied for second most in the league.
29:36Only Cleveland. The aforementioned Browns, who we said were terrible, gave up more.
29:40This is not good enough. We worried about the pass rush.
29:43I said, I don't think motivated Dio Dingbo is better than regular Dio Dingbo.
29:48They said, you don't understand, EJ. He's really going to try this time.
29:52They said, don't worry about it. They said, Austin Booker's going to be great.
29:56They said, we have the guys that we think we need to make this plan work.
30:02They didn't. Jalen Johnson didn't look particularly good. Again, he's still sort of figuring it out.
30:07But at this point, shouldn't be figuring it out in this defense.
30:10This is his second year in the defense. Last year, he struggled with injury.
30:15This year, supposedly, he's healthy. You know, shout out to Malik Muhammad.
30:19Played really well in the slot. It was one of the lone bright spots for the Bears.
30:24Got a pick, too. A nice pick. Very nice pick.
30:27Undercut the ball. Again, if he continues to play that way in the slot, Kyler Gordon is already sort of persona non grata in Chicago.
30:35They will probably welcome him back if he's healthy.
30:38But I don't think he's going to get shoved right back onto the field if Malik's playing that way.
30:44And this is not a defense that looks like it has answers.
30:48And we end up with a team overall that might be the most dichotomous in the league.
30:53The offense might be top three. I think it's certainly probably going to be top five all year long.
31:00Like, that offense looks like a superpower right now.
31:02Again, game one, they put up 59. They put up more than 30 in the first half.
31:08Like, what planet is this? My favorite stat is they had nine scoring drives.
31:12Just scoring drives. And that was the total number of drives that Cincy and Tampa both had in their game.
31:19Yeah, in total. I mean, Dallas had seven total.
31:22They had literally 14 possessions. They doubled up Dallas in possessions.
31:25Had nine scoring drives. Unreal, dude. Yeah. That offense looks elite by any measure.
31:29Running the ball, passing the ball, clutch. You name it.
31:33Like, that offense looks elite. The defense might be just as bad as the offense is good.
31:38It could easily be a bottom five unit. Would have been last year without the turnovers.
31:43If you remove, say, half of the Bears turnovers, they were a bottom five unit.
31:48It was about bottom three, actually. This defense, with an offseason to try and fix all those holes or address those deficiencies,
31:55looks like it could be just as bad or worse.
31:58And that's terrible. It means it's going to be an absolute track meet to win every week in Chicago.
32:04And while the offense looks like they can pull their weight, they're going to have to, which is the bad news.
32:11What's interesting is, so Chicago gave up 37. Houston gave up 36.
32:15They looked entirely different, right? Points were very similar.
32:18How they looked was very different. So my main lie of the week, I only have a couple, but my main one
32:25is when people said the Texans defense is in trouble.
32:28Not really. They just played Josh Allen, right? If you're looking at success rate allowed, the Bills offense was only 16th this week in success rate.
32:36They were under 50%. They were at 42.3%. It's not crazy.
32:40The issue is Houston just allowed an explosive rate of 25% in this game.
32:44It's double what the typical league average is. So it's not that the Bills were consistently winning on offense.
32:50It's just when they won, it was for a gazillion yards down the field.
32:55He had seven deep pass attempts with 20 plus yards in this game.
32:59Nearly a quarter of his attempts went 20 plus yards down the field.
33:03He had 12.6 air yards per attempt, highest in the league this week, and a 9.7% completion percentage above expected, which is sixth best this week.
33:11And considering how many times he was bombing it down the field, to have a plus 9.7% completion percentage is absurd.
33:18Now, as for those seven deep shots down the field, he completed four of them, which again is not normal.
33:2483 of those yards and a touchdown were just against Reed Blankenship by himself.
33:29And I think Reed, you could clearly tell, is not used to playing against the four horsemen of the AFC.
33:35Spent a bunch of time in the NFC East.
33:38Most NFC East quarterbacks don't look like that. And all respect to Dak, I love Dak, great quarterback.
33:44He is not going to make that unbelievably arrogant throw to DJ Moore the whole shot against quarter, quarter, half deep down the field.
33:51And Reed, like against 90% of quarterbacks, that probably would have been a PBU.
33:56I don't think he ever thought there was a possibility that Josh was just going to whip his head around and just throw it.
34:03Because Josh wasn't even looking to that side of the field when he got to the top of his drop.
34:10He was bouncing, he was looking to his left, then went right and just threw it.
34:15And Reed was like, what the fuck, dude? You can do that?
34:19And of course, DJ got a long touchdown on it.
34:22And then Dalton, he got a back-breaking big gain against Reed late in the game.
34:27But it wasn't even that the Texans defense played bad.
34:30It's just they got at the worst possible times.
34:33I mean, Kamari dropped what would have been a game-sealing interception.
34:36And then on the very next play, Palmer got him with a post where Kamari was playing it to the boundary.
34:43And then Palmer just ran a post inside of him, got his hips turned, and that was it.
34:49Josh just threw a seed for 30-something yards. It wasn't a bad day.
34:53And I understand 36 points is 36 points. I'll take that.
34:56If Josh has to play like that to beat you and he does it, tip of the cap.
35:02They're fine. I really do think they're fine. Yeah, we can talk about two things being true, which is the Texans defense is most likely going to rebound.
35:11And the Bills played really well. And they have a Josh Allen, which is tough for anybody to match up with when he is lighting it up.
35:19And that throw that he made to DJ Moore, look at any analyst, any defense coordinator you want to.
35:26They just hide their eyes. They're just like, OK, young quarterbacks don't watch this.
35:30No one can do this. And he did it like it was no big deal.
35:35Well, DJ's last quarterback also could. So he's starting to get used to this.
35:39But I promise you, most receivers should not get used to that kind of throw.
35:44Yeah, DJ was like, wait, I thought I left that in Chicago.
35:48Oh, nope. It's right here. OK, I guess I'll do the same thing.
35:52In terms of other lies, I'm going to keep it in the NFC North.
35:56The Packers always find a way to make lemonade out of lemons on the offensive line.
36:02We talked about this in summer series. This might be a lie.
36:05Their streak might be coming to an end on that front.
36:09We had concerns about this offensive line. We said so.
36:12Looks like they might be justified. 33% rushing success percentage.
36:15That's tied for 29th out of 30 teams. 3.14 yards per carry.
36:19Third worst in the league. Again, out of 30 teams.
36:22This one kills me. He only generated 14 yards before contact on 21 carries.
36:27OK, that's nuts. Well, that's the run game. How was the passing game?
36:31They were pressured on 56.5% of dropbacks. Shout out to Jordan Love.
36:35He played a hell of a game running for his life.
36:38And there were some throws that he made that were like, OK, sure.
36:42Sure, Jordan, go off. Like again, not many people would be able to escape that rush and complete that throw.
36:49He did it, but he did it under duress.
36:52That is the second most in the league so far in terms of their percentage of dropbacks they were pressured on.
36:58They allowed four sacks tied for second worst in the league.
37:02And Jordan Morgan was the lowest rated tackle in the league.
37:05That's 60th out of 60 in pass block win rate per next gen stats.
37:10Across the board, the offensive line looked bad. Looked out of sorts.
37:13It looked physically overmatched and it looked mentally overmatched.
37:16They had as many mental breakdowns as they did physical breakdowns.
37:20Now, they have some very talented athletes on the offensive line, but offensive line is only as good as the weakest link.
37:27Right now, I can't identify the weakest link. I think Trevor put up a stat that four out of five of them
37:34were allowing time to pressure under 2.5 seconds. Four fifths of your offensive line is allowing pressure faster than average.
37:40You can't sustain any offense. It's kind of like the Colts.
37:44Well, if you can't block, what are you going to do?
37:47Well, you can't run it for sure. You definitely can't pass it when you've got pass rushers in your lap under two
37:54and a half seconds coming from four out of the five spots.
37:58That is an across-the-board failure of an area that Green Bay has typically seen as a strength and leaned on.
38:04And look, Jordan loves a great quarterback. Obviously, their skill position, very good.
38:09They're going to get their running back back at some point.
38:12Like, they might even out statistically offensively, but are there ever really going to be a threat if you can't stabilize the offensive line?
38:20And my answer is, nah. If you're looking at what Flores did to them, right, 78% flitz rate on passing plays is
38:27something that only Brian Flores would do. So, you know, are other teams going to replicate that game plan?
38:33I don't know if they have the balls to do it like Flores does.
38:37But clearly, the Packers have issues sorting out their protections, right?
38:41They allowed 10 unblocked pressures in this game. 22 total pressure dropbacks with 10 unblocked pressures.
38:46Even if your plan is we're going to throw hot all game, like we're the mid-2010s Patriots, you should at least be better at it than that.
38:54And that was the one area where Jordan I don't think played well as far as, like, throwing hot and answering pressure
39:01by replacing it with, you know, attacking the space where the pressure came from.
39:06They got to figure that out. Or they just got to add more bodies and protection.
39:11Because if you're going to be unblocked, you at least need to punish it by throwing hot.
39:16They didn't do a good job of that. If you don't think you could throw hot, call seven-man protections if you need to.
39:24Because other teams are going to see that and be like, oh, they're not sorted out in terms of who's picking up what.
39:31Let's just keep doing it. Like, if they played Mike McDonald tomorrow, he'd be licking his chops, right?
39:37So, they got to figure that out, right? Whether it's, you know, getting better at throwing hot or just doing, you know,
39:44the 2023 Texans Bobby Sloick thing of max protecting as much as possible.
39:48They just need answers, right? They need answers. And they need them now.
39:52My next lie. Kind of about week one. More so about the offseason.
39:56We had talked about it in the Jags episode about how I felt there were Jags fans who were wrong.
40:03Wrong to assume that their window had passed. I understand there's a lot of lingering trauma from 2017 where they were on
40:10the cusp of the Super Bowl and it all fell apart after that.
40:14And I said, calm down. You're losing a running back.
40:17You're losing a linebacker. I understand the finances are kind of precarious.
40:21People panned the draft class. But we saw the vision, right?
40:24They were drafting a bunch of guys specifically to be depth players for them because they felt like they didn't want to go into the season thin.
40:33They wanted to be able to outlast the attrition.
40:36And if you're looking at the starting 22, still had a bunch of talent.
40:40Still got Liam. Trevor played really well in the back half of the year once they kind of more featured Jacoby and Parker.
40:48I felt like they were going to be just fine.
40:51And I would say the lie was that they were going to be the same old Jags and really regress hard to the mean.
40:58That's what a lot of people weirdly kind of expected going into this year.
41:03I don't think you were one of them either.
41:06We were both thinking the Jags were going to be fine.
41:09They're more than fine. Trevor had almost as many touchdowns as incompletions in this game.
41:14I understand it's Cleveland. But the way that this team operated, night and day compared to early season Jags last year.
41:21They were prepared. Their plan was perfect. Trevor was dialed in.
41:24The receivers were great. Offensive line was great. You mentioned that Cleveland wasn't getting any pressure whatsoever.
41:30Well, the Jags offensive line, which came into the year banged up, played really good in this game.
41:35So I mean, just kudos all around to the Jags offense.
41:39I think the number one lies people thought that they were going to be regressing hard from that 13 win season last year.
41:46I'm not saying they're going to win 13, but I don't think this is going to be the same old like Icarus
41:53flew too close to the sun Jaguars type thing.
41:56I think they're here to stay. They look really, really good, which then puts even more pressure on the Colts to get their shit together.
42:04Because if Houston's going to be fine and Jacksonville is going to be fine, you can't fall behind against those two.
42:11No, not. And try and catch up at the end of the year, save some random injuries to either of those two
42:18teams that we think are probably going to be leaving the division.
42:22Two plays kind of summed it up for me for the Jags.
42:25Trevor's throw to Josh Cameron. Oh, God, dude. That might have been throw of the week.
42:30Besides everything, all the bullshit Josh Allen did. That throw was the throw of the week.
42:36Like in terms of a window being threaded, there were four Browns players that were within six inches of that thing.
42:42There was no window there. It's not a window.
42:45It's literally a straw. He threw that ball through a straw.
42:49Cameron's in the back of the end zone slanting in towards the post.
42:53And he got it. Like it should have been affected by one of those four Browns players.
42:58If you go back and look at it, especially the end zone angle looking out towards Trevor is insanity.
43:04The audacity to attempt that throw, much less complete it for a touchdown.
43:08Tremendous amount of confidence. A ridiculous throw. One of the most ridiculous throws of week one.
43:13The other one. Watch the very first snap of the game on offense with Jaguars and watch the left tackle.
43:20And you tell me whether or not you think he was ready for this season to start and to hit somebody in another jersey for once.
43:28Because he buried the linebacker. Just fired out and ran him over like runaway truck stuff.
43:33And I was like, oh, okay. Let's go. I think the Jags are going to be fine.
43:39We both thought so. Again, we really believe in what Liam's doing and his program on offense.
43:44And the losses weren't tremendous. They had questions like every team does.
43:48But we didn't think they were as large as a lot of voices coming out of Jacksonville.
43:53So Jags fans, relax. It's okay. They're going to be fine.
43:57They're going to continue to put up points even if they don't end up playing the Browns, which they're not going to.
44:04My last line. We had talked about this in the Summer Series episode.
44:08We thought the Chargers drop off on defense was something we were going to watch.
44:13Much like when Ben Johnson left Detroit, the offense fell off a little bit.
44:17With Jesse Minter leaving and going to be the head coach of Baltimore, we thought, ah, Chargers defense.
44:23Again, a lot of the same players. They got a bunch of good talent.
44:27But how much are they going to be able to sustain?
44:31It was concerning in week one. For context, this is Arizona, a team that a lot of people thought was going to be terrible.
44:38Now, you said it earlier. I'm going to say it here.
44:42Two things can be true. Michael Fleur better coming out of the gate than a lot of people gave him credit for.
44:49That looks to be true. I think the Cardinals are going to challenge more opponents this season than a lot of people gave them credit for.
44:57So, LeFleur can have a good plan. And the Chargers defense fell a little bit farther, especially in the early going, than people thought it might.
45:06They gave up the sixth worst total EPA per play.
45:09They allowed the 22nd ranked offensive success percentage. Not good.
45:1223rd versus the pass. Again, in EPA per play.
45:15And the 25th most pass yards. Again, remember, this is out of 30 teams because only 30 of 32 have played so far.
45:22If you said the Chargers were going to give up the 25th most pass yards to the Cardinals, I don't think many people would have taken that bet.
45:31But that's exactly what happened. Their time to pressure was 24th.
45:35Not great. Multiple things can be true. I do think the Chargers defense is going to normalize or regress progress towards the mean.
45:42I'm not exactly sure how to say that. Get better than they were in week one.
45:47I don't know that they're going to ascend to the levels that they had under Jesse Minner last year.
45:53So it's something to keep an eye on to see how fast and how much that Chargers defense is able to rebound.
46:00Something I'm going to be watching for certainly the first month of the season.
46:04But I know a lot of Chargers fans. They were ready to jump off the nearest bridge yesterday.
46:10Relax. It's okay. Still a lot of talent. Still some very good coaches on that staff.
46:15I think they'll be better. But the real question is how much and how quickly?
46:20Just a point of clarification, I want to make sure I have this right.
46:25So when we say allow the 25th most pass, we mean it allowed the 6th most, but 25th ranked, right?
46:31Correct. Okay. Yeah. Because Jacoby did 277. And I'm like, if 277 is the 25th most passing yards, that means everybody threw for like 400.
46:3925th worst defensive percentage. Or no, 25th worst defensive performance against yards per pass.
46:43Gotcha. Gotcha. Okay. With defensive stats, because lower equals, you know, it's a whole thing.
46:48We're going to wrap up the show with our first bootleg shot of the week of the season.
46:54It's coming back once again. If you're not familiar with this segment, we show our sometimes four, sometimes six, depending on if
47:01Quincy Williams does something, nominees for the week. These are our favorite hits.
47:05Nothing illegal, but our favorite hits, favorite plays. We've even had some punters nominated for shot of the week if they just actually boom one down the field.
47:14It's kind of a loosey-goosey definition. But either way, we play our five favorites.
47:18You guys vote on what your shot of the week is.
47:22And then, of course, we toast it with a shot in our next episode later on this week.
47:28That poll is hosted once again over on the Patreon for all of our lovely patrons to go vote on.
47:34Option number one, perhaps the best special teams play we will see all season, Tyler Owens, the gunner rep of all gunner reps.
47:41This was ridiculous, EJ. This was the only must for me.
47:45Again, we assemble. We send DMs back and forth all Sunday long.
47:49Ah, it's a potential shot of the week nominee.
47:52This one was great. We have sometimes eight or ten nominees in a week.
47:56And this was the only one I put a star next to and said, this is a must.
48:02This has to go on there. Tyler Owens, rep, as a special teams gunner, basically blows through the double team at the line, which most gunners see.
48:10The guy gets back in front of him, basically stiff arms him to the ground.
48:15The other guy comes, rolls over him, then hits the ball carrier and form tackle, picks his legs up, drives his shoulder
48:22into him, drops him straight back on the turf.
48:25Special teams coaches, I think all football coaches all over America are going to be showing this rep for like 10 years
48:32as teach tape of like, hey, you don't think you can make a difference for this team?
48:37You play special teams? You need to be doing this.
48:41If you can do this, you're going to find your way onto the football field.
48:45Incredible rep by Tyler Owens. Just an all-timer. By the way, special teams is one of the big reasons why the Cardinals upset the Chargers to begin with.
48:54They have the sixth highest special teams EPA per play.
48:57This week they had a blocked punt. They had great kick coverage.
49:01Like, special teams really, really matters in this era of the new kickoff where, you know, your average starting field position is 30.
49:09If you can put them at the 20, it's a bunch of hidden yardage.
49:13So, it matters. Second nominee, Chris Godwin and DJ Turner against each other, technically.
49:18This is two wins in one. So, Godwin absolutely levels him with a stiff arm.
49:22He hits the ground, rolls, gets up, and drives Godwin out of bounds to end the play.
49:28So, ate the stiff arm, didn't quit immediately. Like, the coordination, almost gymnastics level of just being able to roll over, plant
49:35a foot, and drive Godwin out of bounds. So, honestly, a win for both players here.
49:40You're just voting for the rep overall. We'd have to split credit.
49:44Next nominee from this same game, Benjamin Morrison, who also had a great day.
49:48Every single young Bucs DB had a great day when you hold Jamar Chase to 12 total yards.
49:54This was the second catch that Jamar had on the day, and it lost four yards because Ben Morrison read and completely blew up this screen.
50:02They tried to be cheeky, get it to Jamar off a little orbit motion, but Ben was watching it the entire way.
50:09Blocker had a long way to go to get out to him, and when you have somebody as explosive as Ben Morrison, who seems healthy now.
50:17The hip seems better. And also just a great tackle on Jamar, who's a great yards after catch threat.
50:23Just a wonderful rep. Next nominee, a lot of DBs today.
50:27Just noticed that. Julian Love filling the alley to get the TFL on third and one.
50:32We did not forget about that Seahawks-Patriots game. We're still going to bring it up.
50:37Still technically week one, even though it was almost a week ago.
50:41Great play from him. Great day from him overall.
50:44Got the pick. Got a couple tackles for loss.
50:46Fantastic day. For safety, Julian Love. Mike McDonald called him out and said, I believe, quote unquote, Julian Love might have played
50:53his best game as a Seahawk, and that's saying something.
50:57Then our last nominee, you know we had to include it.
51:00Sonny Stiles just absolutely detonating Saquon Barkley in pass pro.
51:03We knew that he had the talent to do this kind of stuff, but to do it against a running back that
51:10is 230 and has had a lot of pass blocking snaps in his career, this is really a special way to kind
51:17of announce your arrival in the league, to do that to an all pro.
51:22Technically perfect from Sonny Stiles. When you look at the rep, Saquon knew it was coming.
51:27He tried to get extremely low. He tried to be low man wins, but he sort of folded over in doing it
51:34and gave up a bunch of leverage. Wasn't able to roll his hips through contact.
51:39Stiles, on the other hand, comes correct. Square shoulders, drops the hips, rolls up through the hips and forklifts up through Saquon's
51:46chest underneath him, even though he was low. And just weight roomed him.
51:50Just straight up weight roomed him, which is something for a rookie on a veteran who's as strong and, as you said, experienced as Saquon Barkley.
51:58Again, you can vote for this week's winner over on the Patreon.
52:02All of our patrons can vote for it. That poll should be up about the same time as this episode going live.
52:09That'll be linked down below or at the QR code on the screen.
52:13And if you are an executive producer for us over in the Hall of Fames here on Patreon, I want to thank
52:20you for all of your contributions, not just for Summer Series, but for everything we have going this season.
52:26You know, we're doing extra episodes on Patreon on Fridays.
52:29We do our second public show of the week here on Thursday.
52:33The first show, we're going to try to get these out on Monday night.
52:38Sometimes it'll be Tuesday. We'll see. Our editor, Alden, is an absolute monster.
52:42So ideally, we'll get these out Monday nights. But again, we'll kind of, we'll feel it out as we go.
52:48But we have our second show of the week on Thursday.
52:52We have our Patreon show on Friday. We do our shot of the week's, our winners on shot of the week every Thursday as well.
53:00And if you are one of our executive producers on Patreon, we do thank you for all of your support in making this possible and funding the show.
53:08We quite literally could not do this without you guys.
53:12So thank you once again to Fitzy, Connor, Kells, Mike, Owen, Eichen, Stewart, and Major.
53:16Thank you once again. We appreciate everybody's support. And we will see you all back here in a couple days, I believe, for our week two preview.