PodcastFrom Bootleg Football
The New Orleans Hype Monster
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 40 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 25, 2026
Published
Tue, August 25, 2026
15
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Alvin KamaraJordyn TysonJuwan JohnsonOscar DelpAudric EstimeBarion BrownBryce LanceChris OlaveNoah FantSpencer RattlerTaysom Hill
Player analysis
Player insights
Alvin Kamara
NegativeUsage46:32
The source argues that the Saints can no longer rely on Alvin Kamara as their primary 1A running back, suggesting that doing so would signal a lack of competitiveness.
Insight pageNegativeUsage69:51
Alvin Kamara has shown a clear decline in performance, with his missed tackles forced per attempt dropping from 0.24 in his youth to 0.14 last year, signaling a reduced ability to break tackles in space.
Insight pageAudric Estime
PositiveUsage68:53
Audrick Estime was the Saints' most efficient running back last year, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and is projected to be the RB3 on the depth chart behind Alvin Kamara and the newly added back.
Insight pageBarion Brown
PositiveUsage81:31
Barion Brown is projected to serve as a dangerous return specialist for the team.
Insight pageBryce Lance
PositiveValue71:00
Bryce Lance is a high-value fourth-round pick who offers 80-90% of Jordan Tyson's production with a better health profile; he led the class with 21.2 yards per reception and a 3.58 yards per route run.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeInjury59:59
Chris Olave signed a $31 million deal, but his fantasy value is tied to a significant injury risk regarding concussions, which the source notes are difficult to predict and tend to recur.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury1:44
The source reports a hamstring injury for Jordan Tyson, which is noted as a recurring issue consistent with his pre-draft profile. While the injury is concerning, the source is not ready to sell all stock in the 2026 Saints yet.
Insight pageNegativeProjection67:00
Jordan Tyson is a very good player who looks excellent when healthy, though his recurring hamstring issues are a concern for his immediate availability.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
NegativeUsage21:55
Juwan Johnson is noted as a player who can 'scoot,' but the team's usage of 12 personnel was primarily designed to provide extra protection for deep shots to wide receivers rather than targeting the tight ends themselves.
Insight pageNegativeUsage35:48
Juwan Johnson is occasionally utilized in the passing game because he can move well, but the Saints' tight ends were primarily used as extra bodies in pass protection to facilitate deep shots to receivers.
Insight pageNoah Fant
NegativeRole61:07
Noah Fant was signed for over $4 million; the source expects him to start as the TE2 but potentially evolve into the TE3 role by season's end.
Insight pageOscar Delp
PositiveBreakout39:06
Oscar Delp is described as one of the most underutilized, super athletic tight ends from college football last year; he possesses legit low 4.4 speed, making him a potential seam-stretching threat in the Saints' 12 and 13 personnel packages.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout77:16
Oscar Delp is a tight end with a receiver-like physical profile and speed who was underutilized at Georgia; he is a candidate to be a better professional than he was a college player.
Insight pageSpencer Rattler
NegativeUsage62:07
Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shuck posted nearly identical completion percentages (67.6% vs 67.7%), indicating that Kellen Moore's offensive system provides clear answers for the quarterback, regardless of who is under center.
Insight pageTaysom Hill
NegativeValue55:11
Taysom Hill's tenure with the Saints has ended; the source highlights his unique career as a 'Swiss Army knife' and 'super weapon' who forced defenses to prepare differently.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Five miserable years. That's how long the Saints have been lost in the wilderness.
0:05Offseason after offseason, this fan base has paid their dues.
0:08The cap was a mess, contracts were getting kicked down the road, swings and misses in the draft.
0:14It was like a nightmare that just would not end.
0:17Until December of last year. Sharp, Huff fake, now looking deep, Olabe down there, he's got him!
0:22Olabe down the sideline, turning on the jets and propped out from behind by Baker!
0:27Just like that, the Saints have emerged from the trees.
0:30The cap is mostly cleared up. They have a young, exciting quarterback with many young, exciting weapons.
0:36The offensive line is talented, the backfield is explosive, the defense is massively underrated.
0:40I mean, for the first time in a long time, there is real, honest to God, genuine hope in New Orleans.
0:47And so, naturally, the question now becomes, at what point does that hope turn into expectations?
0:52Welcome to the Bootleg Football Podcast. I'm Brett Coleman.
0:55That's EJ Snyder. EJ, I'm pissed. I was all excited to do this episode today.
1:00I sit down at my computer. I send you the Riverside link.
1:04I look over at Twitter. Jordan Tyson, hamstring injury.
1:07We are starting off on exactly the wrong note.
1:10Also, a slightly expected note, but I hoped it wouldn't happen.
1:13Here we are again. Tyson hamstring issues. The wind is entirely out of my sails.
1:18How are you? I'm not going to jump over the side of the ship quite yet.
1:23I think, yes, we were worried about injury issues coming out, for sure.
1:27That was, I'll say, expected based on the pre-draft profile.
1:31But, I'm also not going to, you know, sound the alarms that it's all over.
1:35I think, again, soft tissue injury camp, like, could come back with this particular player.
1:40Am I more worried or less worried? I'll go more worried, but I'm also not ready to sell all my stock in the 2026 Saints quite yet.
1:49Luckily, a lot of other positives to talk about.
1:52Talented offensive line. Talented young quarterback. I don't want to say overhyped young quarterback.
1:56We do have some concerns. We'll get into it a little bit.
2:00But, I think the excitement is warranted, even if some of the projections are kind of wild.
2:06But, again, we'll get into that. The defense, better than I thought.
2:10Especially at certain things, like excellent run defense. Very efficient pass rush, even if it's not the most consistent pass rush.
2:16That might sound like an oxymoron. Again, we'll explain that in the show.
2:20Overall, just a really, really intriguing team. They might be a year away from being a year away, but it's probably the
2:28most positive trajectory I've seen this franchise on in quite some time.
2:31It's a fun team to talk about because of all those things.
2:35Because they are, so far, or at least they were last year, greater than the sum of their parts.
2:41Tyler Shuck was a big part of that, but not the only part of that.
2:46And we'll, again, dig in. And that's what Summer Series is for, is to find out why and how and what's justified
2:53or so what we think is justified. And there's a lot of fun things to look at in this team.
3:00Typically, when you sort of pulled the hood up on the Saints previously and really went digging around, you very quickly kind
3:07of closed the hood and went, okay, better if we just kind of look at the top.
3:12See you next year. Now it's more fun to kind of tinker and see what extra kind of horsepower they can pull out of this thing.
3:21And I think some of it is there. And that's a real reason for optimism for Saints fans who have been, I don't want to say long-suffering.
3:29They've had their success, but they have not been on the highest of highs in the NFL trajectory lately.
3:36And this is a reason to say, hey, we might be building a solid base here that could get us back to
3:43those heights again, like you said, not necessarily this year, but sooner than maybe the old trajectory would have.
3:49So we'll get to 2025 first. We'll recap what went right, what went wrong, records, you know, overall metrics in terms of
3:56EPA per play and power, all the stuff we normally do.
3:59I will say off the top, though, this might be the one 6-11 team that I've seen in the last few years where I'm like, really?
4:08Like, I swear they won like nine games. They just felt so much better than this.
4:13And maybe it's just because they finished strong. But this was the first time I opened up the records during Summer Series.
4:20And I was like, only six wins. Huh. Yeah, it does happen.
4:24And they were one of those teams. And I think that does lead to this sort of projection that we're seeing moving into Tyler Shuck's sophomore season.
4:33And again, 6-11, like you said, I would say felt more like eight.
4:37Certainly if you listen to Saints fans and folks around the league who are excited about this offense, you would think eight or nine.
4:44You might think maybe a 500 team. Not quite.
4:47Didn't come out that way in the record. They were fourth in the division with that record.
4:53Home record of three and five. Road record very similar, three and six.
4:57But again, like you said, the last five games, it's a recency bias.
5:01They were four and one. They did finish very strong.
5:04And Shuck had some nice plays on tape without a ton of support around him.
5:09We'll talk about some offensive line issues. Talk about certainly receiver availability or lack thereof and what they've done to address that.
5:16That's the whole point of doing these. And it did leave a very good taste in a lot of people's mouths.
5:23And I think we're seeing a lot of that during this offseason where folks are talking about the Saints and where they might finish relative in the division.
5:32And like you said, some of the projections are pretty lofty.
5:36It's like, well, if they finish that strong and they just draw the line straight.
5:41And we've said it a million times on this podcast, progress isn't always linear.
5:45And I think everybody is projecting it to be linear and basically hitting all the green lights based on that four and one finish.
5:53And some of the, again, the strong positives that we saw.
5:56But the reality is six and 11 team. They're going to have to work to improve.
6:01I think they will. But some of the improvement estimates, let's say, are a little rich for my blood.
6:08But we'll talk about those as we go along in terms of how they got there, how they got to those numbers.
6:15We use something called power score. That's part of our effectiveness summary.
6:19Basically, six numbers that we think indicate whether a team is good at playing football, passing EPA per play, rushing EPA per
6:26play, defense allowed versus pass and rush again by EPA per play.
6:30Point scored and points allowed. We take those six numbers.
6:33We add them up. We just average them out.
6:36And then we stack them. And that's their raw score.
6:39And we see where they finished overall comparatively to their peers in the league.
6:43The passing EPA per play. Again, if you if you listen to all the hype and hyperbole about Kellen and Tyler Shuck,
6:50you would say, oh, this is like 20th or maybe even the 18th best passing offense in league.
6:56They were not. They were 27th by EPA per play.
6:59We'll talk about the vagaries of EPA per play and why that is specifically on that number.
7:05But 27th. Not great. But rushing EPA per play far worse.
7:09And I think that did show up on the field.
7:12That was representative. They were 31st passing EPA per play allowed 12th.
7:16This was a surprising number to me. Almost a top 10 passing defense in terms of EPA per play against the pass.
7:23I was surprised by that. If you had asked me just blind based on watching their tape last year, I would have said 15th or 16th.
7:3112 is a very good number. And then you get to the rush EPA per play allowed.
7:37This was excellent. Second best rushing defense in the league.
7:40And then you kind of blink or at least I did rub my eyes, went back, looked at the death chart.
7:47Who created those numbers? And I was like, this is a very disciplined defense.
7:51And we'll talk about how that discipline shows up on the field.
7:55But you don't get to that number second best in the NFL without following your lanes, especially when you are not overloaded with talent in the front seven.
8:04And they are not. They have some good players.
8:07I would say very few great players and a lot of guys who just do their job but do it very, very well within the system.
8:15So points scored, they were 28th. Tracks almost exactly with their passing EPA per play number.
8:20And points allowed, they were 16th. That is good enough.
8:24A middle of the road scoring defense is good enough to win overall.
8:28If you have a very powerful offense, they're going to need to sort of fill in some of those gaps if they
8:35want a better result in the win-loss column by the end of the year.
8:39But again, 19.33 is their raw score. And when you stack that up with all the other teams in the NFL, they
8:46were 21st overall in power score, which I think is a pretty representative number when you take the sum total of these
8:54parts and sort of squeeze them together and say what were the Saints in 2025 as a team.
8:5921st overall feels about right. A team with a puncher's chance to win on any given Sunday but still had some flaws
9:06and was learning with a lot of young players.
9:09They just didn't have a really big margin for error.
9:13And unfortunately, especially early on in the season, when I think they started out like two and something bad.
9:19They had a really, really bad record in the first half of the year.
9:23Shuck didn't take over until week nine. And really, they didn't start getting going until like week 14.
9:29But they didn't really have a margin for error because they turned it over a bunch.
9:34They had about a turnover and a half per game.
9:37And even though they did get some turnovers defensively, they still had a negative turnover margin per game, which if you're not
9:44the most explosive team offensively, or if you just can't run the ball at all, which they couldn't, then you just don't
9:52have the runway to give away the ball that much.
9:55So that caused a lot of issues for them.
9:58The fact that they were still a good defense, despite the offense turning it over again, one and a half times per game, which is not good.
10:06That really was one of the more impressive things about this team.
10:10Yes, they did allow a lot of rushing yards per game.
10:14But if you're looking at yards per carry, they were very good.
10:18And a big reason why the total rushing yards allowed per game was high was because teams ran it on them 30 times per game.
10:26They had the third most carries per game against them.
10:29So that rush EPA per play allowed number being top two in the league is really all about like, hey, teams ran it on them a lot.
10:38And they just kept hitting that brick wall a lot.
10:41And they should have lost by more. Right. They should have had probably.
10:45If you're if you just give them like an average yards per carry allowed, they probably would have been like 22nd, 23rd in points allowed.
10:53The fact that they they really held strong through the offense, turn the ball over.
10:58They didn't allow teams to just to steamroll them over and over and over again and build these huge leads and just
11:05run the ball down their throats like that. That ability to keep it close is why the EPA per play was so good.
11:12Not to mention the past events. I almost kind of want to start there instead of the offense.
11:18The fact that they had this efficient of a pass rush, despite not really having any star pass rushers, Chase Young is
11:25probably the closest thing they got at this point.
11:28That to me was incredible. Right. They're not a super blitz heavy team, but they are a simulated pressure heavy team.
11:35They have the second most defensive snaps of any team in the league where they had a blitz, but a four man
11:42blitz, if you want to call it that. So you're sending a linebacker, but then dropping somebody else or you're sending a
11:49nickel, you're sending a corner, you're sending a safety, a four man rush, but like an exotic four man rush.
11:56Again, people call them either simulated pressures. Some college coaches call them creepers, whatever nomenclature you want to use.
12:02Let's just call it a four man non traditional pressure.
12:05Second most in the league. And at the same time, their time to pressure was very slow.
12:10Sixth longest in the league. And their, their overall pressure rate 23rd in the league.
12:15So you have this team that doesn't blitz a whole lot.
12:19They do a lot of four man rushes, even though they're kind of funky four man rushes, they get to the quarterback
12:26slow and they don't get to the quarterback or, and they don't pressure the quarterback a lot.
12:31But when they do, they were one of the most efficient pass rushes in the entire NFL.
12:37Well, like specifically on third down, they had the highest sack conversion rate in the league.
12:42It was like almost 40% of their pressures turned into sacks on third down, which is insanely efficient.
12:48You know, there's a lot of really good defenses that are like 25, 30%.
12:52They'll get a lot of pressures, but they don't get the quarterback on the ground.
12:57This team got the quarterback on the ground. If you're looking at sack conversion rate across all downs and distances, they were still fourth best.
13:05So as a result of that, they were still 10th in sacks per game, even though they were 23rd in pressure rate.
13:12And I think that was a function of their style of pass rush, which is, again, we don't get there quickly.
13:19We don't have quick wins, but we compress the pocket.
13:22We cage the quarterback in. And so if our coverage holds up on the back end, the quarterback has nowhere to go.
13:29We don't create escape lanes because we're really all about pocket compression.
13:33And that was just suffocating on third down. It was a really, really interesting defense that they had here just because they
13:40don't have any stars, but they were good. It's almost like if you go back to the Vikings episode we had a
13:47couple weeks ago, you know, where people say the Vikings were like a no-name defense, right?
13:53Like no pro bowlers, no all pros, no super high ticket items there, but they were like one of the best units in the league.
14:01The Saints kind of remind me of that. But not quite to that level of effectiveness, but like not that far off overall.
14:08Like no star players, but as a unit, really, really good.
14:12You know what my comp is for them? Huh?
14:14The trash compactor from Star Wars. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
14:17They just. I 100% see what you're talking about.
14:20Very slowly, but like where are you going to go?
14:23You're not going anywhere. To your point, we are not creating our own problems.
14:28We are not creating escape lanes. We are not creating lanes to step up into.
14:33Basically, anywhere you go, you're just less. You have less and less to deal with.
14:38Less space. And quarterbacks feel that. Can't step into a throw.
14:41The closer those offensive linemen get to you, the more space they take up in your vision.
14:47It's like a goalie coming out and cutting down the alley.
14:50Like you are. You're just. And they look around and, you know, again, three and a half, sometimes four and a half seconds into the play.
14:59They're like, oh, OK, I guess I'm just going to get somebody's hands on me and go down because there's just nowhere to go.
15:06It doesn't happen quickly. Again, it's not a it's not super sexy.
15:10It's not really shiny. It's not shiny at all.
15:13But the way that it just slowly builds pressure and doesn't create any relief.
15:18It's that sort of overwhelming sense of dread that comes very, very slowly.
15:22And that was the 2025 Saints pass rush. And even when they didn't have pressure, they were so good at tackling in
15:29space and they were so good at stopping the run that they put teams into longer downs and distances.
15:35So they had more room to then allow reception and then tackle in space.
15:39They were still the 11th best defense in terms of passing success rate allowed without getting pressure with pressure.
15:46They were second. They were tied with Denver in terms of pass success rate allowed.
15:50So this was a Broncos level defense when they got pressure.
15:54And even when they didn't get pressure, they were still 11.
15:58Just a very, very underrated unit. And again, if the offense was average last year, it's almost like the reverse Cowboys, right?
16:05If the offense was average last year, that's why it felt like they probably should have been like a nine win team
16:12because you look at them just getting into these these fist fights with rosters that were objectively better than them because they would just bog you down.
16:20You know, you would run the ball 30 times against them.
16:24You weren't really getting anything done on those 30 carries.
16:27So the clock is just ticking and ticking and ticking.
16:30You're in third and seven. They get a sack.
16:33It's still a one possession game in the fourth quarter.
16:37You don't know how the hell this is happening.
16:39You're on the road in the dome. You're like, we should be winning by 14.
16:44And it's like a three point game. And like, that's that's how they get you, man.
16:49That's how they get you. It's just a really, really fun team that when you the deeper you dive into it, the
16:56more you kind of believe like, OK, I I get the hype here.
17:01It's a cool way to play the game to to marry those two together.
17:05And honestly, it's the bizarro bears, right? You have a defense that is really good and, you know, puts a lot of pressure on the opposing offense.
17:14You had an offense that was fun to watch, but we'll say streaky.
17:18Tyler Shuck had his share of highlight throws and they had some big plays, but that's not really what they lived on.
17:25And when you look at their end of the season rankings, defense, almost top 10 bears offense was top 10, you know, flip it over.
17:33Offense was 25th best. Maybe if you're talking about it, maybe 27th.
17:37And that was the bears defense, right? They just lived on turn.
17:41The bears defense lived on turnovers that, you know, the saints offense didn't, didn't live on a ton.
17:47They just didn't score a ton of points. And so it's like the exact opposite half and half relationship.
17:53Now, if you could take the saints defense and put it with the bears offense, you're talking about a top five team in the NFL.
18:01But it's, you know, each team has its ways to sort of adjust and, and, you know, address those things in the off season.
18:09We'll talk about what they did in terms of not so much coaching because a lot of stability there, but really with their additions.
18:16Okay. How do we, how do we boost our weakness here?
18:20Because our strength, despite the lack of big names is our defense right now.
18:24Flipping over to the offensive side. Normally we only do like one patron viewer note slash question per episode.
18:31I kind of want to do two for this one, just because we got a note from Garrett Manises over on the
18:38Patreon that I thought kicked off the offense section here really well.
18:42Garrett said, I think it's kind of going under the radar that Kellen wants to have a true multiple offense.
18:48The last games, once Shuck got going, our under center and gun splits got to around 50, 50 plus word around mini
18:55camp is we're hammering the three tight ends. Look plus 11.
18:59We ran a lot of last year. I want to zero in on the 12 personnel or really multi tight end part
19:06of that, because that was a trend that we really saw develop through the season last year.
19:11Specifically, I'm going to hone in, uh, starting in week nine when Shuck took over and then we'll go, uh, from week 14 on.
19:19So we'll look at Shucks entire starting slate here in the back half of the year.
19:24And then just those last five games where they went four and one.
19:28So for the year, for the entire season, including the Spencer Rattler time, they were sixth in 11 personnel usage.
19:35They were 24th in 12 personnel usage and they were 28th in offensive point score, uh, to your point for the entire year week nine and on.
19:43They went from sixth to 13th in 11 personnel usage.
19:47So less three wide receiver looks. And they went from 24th to 21st in 12 personnel.
19:52So a little bit more tight ends, a little, a little bit less three wide receivers.
19:57Uh, and then they went up to 25th in point score again, slight bump.
20:01Still not great, but slight bump week 14 and on last five starts.
20:06When they went four and one, they went down again in 11 personnel usage to 19th.
20:11Now they're below average in terms of using three wide receiver looks.
20:15And they went up to 11th in 12 personnel in those last five weeks.
20:19And their offensive point scored was 13th in that four and one stretch.
20:23So as they integrated more multi tight end stuff into the offense, the offense got better.
20:28They scored more points and we saw the defense stay relatively the same in terms of effectiveness, but the offense finally carried
20:36their weight and suddenly this was a really good team.
20:39And so I think Garrett's point about them really, really trying to lean into multi tight ends is a good one.
20:46As for why that worked, you know, the, the tendencies and trends that we saw when they were in 12 personnel, they threw out of it a lot.
20:55They didn't run the ball with it because they were just shitty at running the ball anyway.
21:00So they threw out of it a lot. They were really low in play action pass rate out of it.
21:06They were really low in under center rate out of it specifically.
21:10Like they did 12 personnel, but it was gun 12 personnel, not under center 12 personnel.
21:16Kind of weird, but it is what it is.
21:18Here's the thing that piqued my interest. Seventh highest deep pass attempt rate out of 12 personnel in the entire league.
21:25Once Shuck took over when they were an 11 personnel, they were actually average in deep pass attempt rate.
21:31When they went to 12 personnel, they really threw it down the field a lot.
21:36They didn't throw it to the tight ends though.
21:39They use those tight ends as extra bodies in protection so they could take shots to their receivers, right?
21:45Whether it was a lava, whether it was vele.
21:48You know, sometimes they would, they would hit Juwan just cause again, he can scoot, but they were like 0.6 yards in
21:55terms of average depth of target higher in 12 personnel compared to 11.
21:59Doesn't sound like a lot. Trust me. That's a lot.
22:03So, you know, I found it interesting that Kellen wanted to be aggressive, but he, he wanted to be aggressive while protecting
22:10Shuck as much as possible because Shuck would get into trouble when he was harassed, I guess we could say.
22:16And so he wanted to give him as much or as many clean pockets as he could just to hit those one-on-ones, uh, down the boundary, right?
22:25Double moves, like really anything deep down the boundary.
22:28He wanted to make his life easier, which meant having tight ends help out in pass pro, uh, having run, like we
22:35would see eight man protections in the last five weeks.
22:38Like they were just really, really emphasizing if we're going to go vertical, it's going to be with a clean pocket.
22:45We will sell out, uh, to do that because we don't need receivers or multiple receivers down the field to open each other up.
22:52It's literally just, we're trying to give him time to throw the one-on-one down the boundary.
22:58And they did have success with it. And looking forward, we've said it multiple times during summer series, as well as many
23:05other analysts, two trends that you're going to see this year in the NFL are more multi-tight end sets.
23:11That's both 12 and 13 personnel. I would imagine both of those rates go up overall league wide and tempo and looking
23:18forward to how the saints are setting themselves up again with that indicator that we had throughout the year.
23:24That was a sort of increasing. We talk about hockey stick curve getting towards the end of the year.
23:30And watching how much more they use multi-tight end sets.
23:33Well, what did they do in terms of putting the roster together?
23:37Now, if you want to talk about a three tight end set, probably going to throw to them a little bit more because of who they brought in.
23:46You got you on Johnson, who you mentioned, then you get Noah Fant and you draft Oscar Delp, who might be one
23:53of the most underutilized super athletic tight ends in college football last year.
23:58If you line those three guys up at 13 personnel, again, Kellen has that tendency to pack the offense in again to
24:05compress the defense, to maximize his protection. And then it gives him the out routes on the field to be wide open
24:12because the defenders have to pack in. You can't leave corners five yards from the boundary when everybody's lined up on one hash.
24:19And when you can put those three tight ends out, all three of those guys can run.
24:25Again, you can use them as decoys. You can use them as deep seam threats.
24:29You can run, you know, whatever you want with those guys.
24:33And I would imagine that again, based on 10 and Trenzy last year and what they did to restock or really buttress
24:40the roster there is I think we're going to see a lot of multi-tight end sets.
24:45And I think they probably are going to pass more out of them than they did last year based on again, who
24:52they brought in to fill those roles. Yeah. Really the, the balance between the, the vertical threats that they have in their
24:59tight end room versus the vertical threats they have in their receiver room.
25:04You can't put them all in the field at once.
25:07Nope. Right. So it's like, okay, if we're going to be a super heavy 12 personnel team, because Oscar Delp can just absolutely roll.
25:15He's like a legit low four, four guy at tight end.
25:18If we want to use him as our seam stretcher, one of our seam stretchers at tight end.
25:24Okay. Are we just putting a lava and Tyson on the field and, and just Bryce Lance doesn't get any snaps is Bailey not getting any snap.
25:33Like they have four receivers that can get down the field.
25:36But if we're going to be a really big multi-tight end team, those four receivers aren't going to be on the field
25:43unless we're just constantly rotating them and saying like, you guys are getting your cardio, we're going to just absolutely overwhelm these
25:50corners and make them run with us over and over and over again until they get tired.
25:56Then by the third quarter, that's when we're going to go, you know, bombs away on those guys.
26:02Like maybe that's the plan is just go routes for everybody.
26:05And the defense is going to get tired faster than we will because we can rotate and they can't, or maybe it's
26:12just going to be, okay, we're going to be in, in 11 personnel because Bryce Lance is a good blocker.
26:19We can do some of the Robert Woodsy type stuff with him.
26:23Like we can give him carries if we want to.
26:26And then throwing it out of 12 and 13 is the changeup.
26:30Like, I don't know what they're going to do here, but it's a good problem to have because the problem is we
26:37have too many weapons and we can't put them all on the field at once.
26:42And oh, by the way, we also brought in HN as well, who can also really run too.
26:47So it's, yeah, it's fascinating, right? Like lobster, too buttery steak, too juicy.
26:52I don't know what they're going to do. You run out of numbers really quick.
26:56You start drawing it up and I'm sure Kellen's doing this.
27:00Okay. I got four wide receivers. I got three tight ends.
27:03That's seven guys. No protection. No, we're not running schoolyard offense here, but boy, this would be the greatest schoolyard offense of all time.
27:11Is now a good time just to talk about Tyler Shuck?
27:15It is. It's an excellent time to talk about a player that we have a lot of familiarity with and who I
27:22want to just start off at the top and say had a very good rookie season.
27:27I was not the biggest Tyler Shuck fan for multiple reasons.
27:31I loved his highs, but I was very worried more so than some others about his lows.
27:36And it wasn't necessarily the injuries. Yes, he had an injury history.
27:40I'll say the sort of less repeatable injury history.
27:43He had some breaks like bone breaks, things like that.
27:46So I wasn't as worried about the injuries. I was worried about the inconsistency and the sort of YOLO throws that popped
27:53up more often than I would have liked. That was the biggest thing.
27:57And yes, there was a combine video. I do want to interject here, by the way, that combine video was yours.
28:04The super mega viral one that everybody saw. That was your it is your fault, EJ.
28:09It is. It's most definitely my fault. And but I was worried about that.
28:14He wasn't just the combine or the calm. Everybody said, oh, it's just a combine throw.
28:19What are you talking about? It's not. It was something that I'd identified off tape where it basically almost once a half,
28:26there would be at least one throw from Tyler Shuck that you were just like, buddy, what are you doing?
28:32And it happened over and over again. Now, a lot of quarterbacks have those throws.
28:37They had them at a lower rate than Tyler did when Tyler was again.
28:42You already brought it up when he was clean.
28:45He threw the ball incredibly well is a very experienced starter.
28:48He'd been around for a long time, played a bunch of football.
28:52And when he was clean, his mechanics are there.
28:55He's got good velocity. He can rip it and did rip it in college.
28:59But at the NFL level, you get less of a chance to do that.
29:04You get less plays overall. You certainly get less shot plays.
29:08You get way less even than that clean shot plays, which again, were where he really excelled.
29:13He's not so much of a playmaker outside of the pocket.
29:17Like you said, he tends to get in more trouble than make big plays in those situations on balance.
29:23So you want to keep the guy protected. You want to give him a clean platform to throw because he can excel in those situations.
29:31Typically, as a rookie starting quarterback, you don't get a ton of those in the NFL.
29:36So I had my worries about Tyler Shuck. He outplayed my expectations for him.
29:40Not of what he necessarily could be, but what I thought he was probably most likely to be is the best way to say that.
29:48He got rid of a lot of those throws.
29:51You saw less of those YOLO throws, which were my biggest bugaboo with him.
29:56And you did see those good throws because, again, he landed in a good situation with a former quarterback as his offensive
30:03play caller who said, hey, his best life is well protected taking those drive throws.
30:08And they put him in that situation more as often as they could.
30:12And a lot of places wouldn't. And the end result is Tyler Shuck had a very good, very promising rookie season.
30:19And I would say outplayed expectations, mine and many others.
30:22So one of the key numbers here for why Shuck took over for Rattler, if you're just looking at non-pressured dropbacks, like
30:29completely clean pockets, which, again, obviously is when he's going to be at his best because everybody's better in a clean pocket
30:36other than like that one that best year of Joe Burrow when his passer rating literally didn't move when he was under pressure versus not under pressure.
30:45But again, not everybody's going to be Joe Burrow.
30:48But as far as yards per attempt, not pressured.
30:51Rattler was only at 5.8. Shuck was up to 7.6, which is not like an amazing number, but it's solid.
30:57Right. You compare that to when Shuck was pressured, he dropped down to 5.4.
31:02So he went up more than two yards per attempt when he was kept clean.
31:06His passer rating went up by like 25, 26 points when he was kept clean.
31:11TD and interception ratio was better. Like everything was better when he was kept clean, which is why as the season went
31:18on, they're like, we think we can keep him clean when we have extra bodies and protection, especially when we're trying to
31:25take these shot plays like they really love stutter goes in this offense, mainly because they had receivers that were good at it.
31:33But like they really love doing that. It's OK.
31:36It's a longer developing route. How can we keep him clean?
31:39How about we just give him seven bodies in front of him, sometimes eight?
31:44And it paid off. It really did pay off.
31:47I will say. Had some truly awesome throws on tape.
31:50I don't think he has overwhelming arm strength, but the ball just has this tendency to carry for him.
31:56Like it doesn't it doesn't drop as soon as you think it will.
32:00Like he'll have this kind of awkward delivery sometimes on the move.
32:04I love this kind of like awkward snap of the wrist and the ball goes up and it's not like it's going
32:11super fast with a lot of pace, but it just stays up there.
32:15And it just almost effortlessly floats to the exact spot where it's supposed to go, especially on these throws deep down the boundary.
32:23Like son of a bitch. Like he actually put it there.
32:26Like he made that throw. And so it doesn't have like the pop of a Josh Allen or Caleb Williams, but it gets there.
32:34It's not slow, but it gets there. And so he just has this interesting trajectory and pace to the ball that I
32:41almost have to get used to when watching it.
32:44Like I have to like recalibrate what what his deep pass attempts look like.
32:49Like it's actually kind of Russell Wilson is. Yes.
32:51Like, you know, the that that moon ball where you're like, oh, it's not going to get.
32:57Oh, shit. I got there. You know, like you have to like recalibrate your expectations when you watch him, but it works.
33:04I will say some of his best plays could have been better.
33:08He was a rookie, even though he's an older rookie.
33:11He was a rookie. And so you could kind of see some of the paint by number elements there had an explosive
33:18play against the Jets that if he just, looked at the safety and saw the safety was flat footed.
33:24He could have hit the deep post for the touchdown.
33:28But in his mind, he was thinking, OK, this deep post is going to occupy the corner and the safety in quarters,
33:35which means I'm going to have this out and up down the boundary.
33:39I'm just going to take the safe throw. I'm going to get my explosive out of it.
33:44Great. It works. Got the explosive. Could have been six.
33:47And as quarterbacks get more experienced, they start looking for those alerts more.
33:52Right. Like when they see the safety out of position with his hips turned the wrong way or, you know, he's not
33:59backpedaling and actually helping out his corner. Like sometimes quarterbacks will catch safeties being overly aggressive like that and punish the defense
34:06for it, especially on deep post against quarters. That will come in time.
34:10But he's not there yet. It's going to be paint by number for a while.
34:15That's why a lot of their their deep pass attempts with Shuck was double moves down the boundary.
34:21Why? It's the one thing he has to look at.
34:24Is the corner biting on it or not? If yes, throw it.
34:28If not, go somewhere else. Like it's it's very do this, then do this, then do this.
34:33Which again, young quarterback, I get it. But it was very safe aggression.
34:37And that's reflected in his passing chart. This is not going to be a fair comparison, but it needs to be made anyway.
34:45You compare Dak Prescott's passing map, another former Kellen Moore quarterback.
34:48You compare his passing maps, Tyler Shucks, and we'll put them both on screen.
34:53What do you see? You see Tyler Shuck working a small area of the intermediate middle, right?
34:58Like between 10 and 16, 17 yards specifically to his right.
35:02Again, right-handed quarterback. Dak, that's where his eyes are going.
35:05That kind of right hand seam area. He works that.
35:08He's not doing it to his left. And he's especially not working between, say, 17 and 25 yards deep over the middle.
35:15You compare that to Dak. Entire middle area of the field.
35:19Seem to seam, deep to short, littered with throws.
35:22And Dak's one of the best pocket passers in the NFL.
35:25We all know that, but like that's where he has to get to.
35:30His overall passing map as his career goes on needs to start to look like Dak, where it's every single blade of grass I'm willing to hit.
35:38I can't just be aggressive deep down the sidelines because that's safe.
35:42I need to be able to also threaten defenses in the intermediate middle area of the field because that's where the best
35:49offenses really live and dies, in the intermediate middle.
35:52Again, he'll get there, but I wanted to illustrate the difference between what it's supposed to look like and what Shuck looks like right now.
36:00There was good here. There was legitimately good. The projection is getting a little bit out of control because we know what great quarterback looks like.
36:09Great quarterback play looks like, I should say, the NFL versus what he is right now.
36:14It's encouraging. Let's slow down a little bit. Yeah, I think the curve needs to be adjusted because the curve, the hype
36:21train's gotten a little bit out of control this summer.
36:24Again, very solid. We say it with all rookie quarterbacks.
36:27Even if they're in a bad situation, you're still going to see the flashes that say this can be a good quarterback.
36:34He was in a good situation and we saw those on top of that.
36:39That's great. When I talk about a good situation, time to throw was the sixth lowest in the league.
36:45He got this ball out quickly and early on a lot of plays.
36:49That's again, that sort of paint by numbers thing you're talking about.
36:53Option one, option two. Nope, got to go somewhere else done over with the play.
36:58Let's not try and extend it into four and five seconds with me running around in the pocket because the chances of
37:05me getting hurt go up and the chances of getting something positive out of the play actually go down.
37:11So again, get the ball out. Look at your first two to three reads cleanly.
37:16Get through them. Get them done. And he was very good at that.
37:20Again, it's on him to do that. And he did it.
37:24The other one I thought was fascinating. Just looking through numbers.
37:27And I don't know if you do this, but when you're pouring through numbers and you see two numbers that are almost
37:34exactly the same for two different players within the same offense.
37:38So Shuck and Rattler had almost the exact same completion percentage.
37:41And yes, this is raw completion percentage. And I'm just using it for this 67.6 to 67.7.
37:47That's bonkers. And it indicates that in Kellen's offense, there is a right answer.
37:51He is providing the answers regardless of who's throwing it.
37:55And if you're the quarterback and you're following that, whatever you want to call it, progression map, you know, stream throughout the
38:02play, you're going to have a decent completion percentage because I'm going to provide you answers.
38:07And if you read the room correctly, and we're going to sit down every week in installs and every week in film
38:14review and say, did you read the room correctly?
38:17Right. Did you get through it? Are we seeing it the same way?
38:21And if you do, it doesn't matter if it's Rattler or Shuck.
38:25Although there was a difference in aggression that you highlighted, the overall in terms of ball gets into receivers hands happened at amazingly similar rates.
38:33So this is a good solid baseline for a young quarterback.
38:36It was catered to the young quarterback. Again, let's keep him protected and let him do what he does best most.
38:43That is the good landing spot that we talk about.
38:46That is the positive situation. Even with that, again, we go back to passing EPA for play for both these younger quarterbacks.
38:54Talking about the 27th best in the NFL. Even if you project progression to be linear, which it's not always, there could be a sophomore slump.
39:02I'm not saying there will be. In fact, I think there probably won't be.
39:06I think Shuck will be better in his second year.
39:10He's got more targets. He's got more familiarity. He's not a rookie anymore.
39:14He's just got more reps. So even if you have that line going up, the heights to which some fans have that
39:21line ascending to this season, like top 10, 12 ish quarterback is too rich for my blood.
39:26Even if he does great and continues on this positive ascension, this positive curve, we're talking about like the 18th best quarterback,
39:34like at the higher end, maybe the 15th. If you're really lucky, that's middle of the pack.
39:39And again, relative to draft expectation, relative to contract investment, that's a tremendous value.
39:44It's the contract. If you have the 18th best quarterback for no money, that's the value.
39:49Yeah. And low draft capital as well. That is a success.
39:52And I'm not trying to cut the legs out from Mickey Loomis and the Saints organization on this at all.
39:59I'm saying as far as pure projection about what Chuck is and what Callen's offense can be with him at the helm
40:06in year two, I've heard some pretty hyperbolic stuff about that.
40:09And it's, it's a little bit too rich because even if everything continues to go right and they, you know, figuratively hit
40:16all the green lights, you're talking about a guy that's going to end up if he's doing really well at like 20th,
40:2318th, maybe 16th, maybe middle of the pack. And that would still be very good.
40:28But I'm hearing these things about, oh, shocking this offense, all these weapons.
40:32Look what they did at the end of the year.
40:36He's going to be, you know, insert top, top 15 projection here.
40:40And I'm like, I think that ceiling is probably closer this year.
40:43Again, not for his career, not saying that's where he's going to stop and he's not going to improve from that point,
40:51but just for, just for the season coming up, I've been hearing some stuff that sort of makes me go, oh, okay.
40:58That's, that's lofty. We'll, we'll see. The good news is he doesn't have to be that great.
41:03No, he can be solid. He doesn't have to be that great if the defense is still good.
41:09And if the run game isn't one of the three worst in the NFL, like we've talked about some bad run games so far this year.
41:17We've talked about Houston talked about, or we'll talk about the Raiders when we get to them.
41:23The saints were just as bad, if not worse than every other run game in the entire league.
41:29In terms of average yards before contact per attempt, 3.4 tied with the Raiders.
41:33One of the worst in the NFL, their most efficient back was 4.3 yards per carry is Audrick Estime, who I believe
41:40is going to be RV three going into the year for, uh, for them.
41:45Cause you're going to have HN Camara, then Estime, but like your top, top, top, most efficient back was 4.3.
41:51That's not great. Uh, Alvin Camara is not what he used to be.
41:55Obviously in saints fans know that they've watched him decline for quite some time.
42:00Now 0.14, uh, missed tackles force per attempt, not to bog you down with nerd numbers.
42:05He was significantly better than that. When he was young, he was about 0.24.
42:09Again, it doesn't sound like a big gap. That is monstrous in terms of your ability to break tackles in space.
42:16Interior offensive line is a big reason why the run game was bad.
42:20Not just an aging Camara and not really having any other explosive options in the backfield.
42:26Like the offensive line also played a part in this too.
42:29Penning was bad and then got hurt. Ruiz was just bad all year.
42:33Uh, Dylan Raddins came off the bench and was better than penning, but still like just okay.
42:39You know, Fortner came in for an injured McCoy, like really savvy move to get him, but was just fine, right?
42:46Like you didn't have any difference makers in the interior offensive line at all.
42:50And at their worst, they were just bad. So when you package that again, with having young tackles with an inconsistent at
42:57best interior offensive line, you get what you had last year.
43:01Good news for them. That interior offensive line struggle is half the reason they brought in Edwards.
43:06Who's the best guard they've had in quite some time to put it mildly.
43:11Like he is a really, really good guard. Absolutely worth the money.
43:15McCoy is back coming off. I believe it was a torn bicep might've been torn tricep.
43:20I got double check which muscle it was, but he's back.
43:23Edwards is next to him again, two exciting young tackles.
43:26If Cesar Ruiz can just not be ass, it's a good offensive line.
43:31Plus you bring an inch in at running back.
43:34I would be stunned if the run game is anything near what it was in 2025.
43:39As far as how bad it was, if they can be 16th again, if Shuck is 16th best quarterback and their run
43:46game is 16th best in the NFL and their defense just stays the same.
43:50Yeah. They could win 10 games, potentially win the South, but I can't imagine they're going to be 31st or 30th like they were last year.
43:59Like it's, it's almost impossible to be that bad again, two years in a row.
44:04Yeah. Outside of some health related issues. And you mentioned Radden's he is out.
44:08He's on IR. Um, they, again, they weren't counting on him to start, but would have been a valuable backup because we say it all the time.
44:17Lots of offensive lineman play for every team in the NFL.
44:20Again, the top line is better than it was, especially with the addition at Edwards.
44:25That's a massive plus for them. McCoy coming back also a big plus for them, but they got hurt last year.
44:32If they get hurt next year, it could be right back to middling performance.
44:36Again, we really like the young tackles, but, uh, you know, two out of five offensive lineman does not an offensive line make.
44:44So they're going to have to stay healthy. It looks better on paper.
44:48They have obviously addressed some of that. The running back change needed to happen.
44:52I do not think you could take Camara and run him out as the one a anymore.
44:58That is, um, just waving a white flag saying we're not ready to compete.
45:02And they spent big and got a player who should be able to be a little bit of flex tape for this offense.
45:10He is, he is, and has been a sort of problem solver answer maker.
45:14Pass game run game. He just sort of gets first downs in lots of ways and they needed that.
45:21And so again, looks good on paper in August.
45:23We'll see how it looks say on the field in late October, early November.
45:28Hi, alternate timeline. Brett here before we get to all the 2026 stuff.
45:32If you've liked a lot of the data that we brought up so far, we have companion infographics for every single team,
45:39including the one we're talking about today with over 15,000 total data points that we've collected throughout this summer.
45:45Each team gets its own companion infographic, which is roughly about 20 pages long.
45:50It has all the data on this team. You can think of whether it's alignment data, personnel data, cap allocation, coverage data
45:57broken out by down and distance blitz data. I mean, basically anything you can think of, we've got it.
46:03So if you want access to that, you can find that down at the link in the description below or at the QR code on the screen.
46:12Reminder, we also have bonus episodes that go live every single Friday over on Patreon, recapping every single division.
46:18We're going to pick division winners, MVPs, rookies of the year, all that stuff.
46:22So if you want bonus episodes plus more data than you could probably handle, that is over on the Patreon.
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46:47Their names are on screen right now. They have been OG supporters of us and made so much in our lives possible
46:54while we try to chase this dream. So thank you.
46:57Thank you. Thank you. And with that, let's get back to the show.
47:01All right. From here on out, we're in the 2026 portion of the show, even though we've kind of hit on some of the additions already.
47:09But still, from here on out, 2026, what's changed about this team and are those changes good?
47:15Start with the power structure. Honestly, not a lot has changed when it comes to this, but that's a good thing, right?
47:22Very little turnover here on the coaching staff in front office, which there hasn't been turnover in the front office since like the Bush Jr.
47:30administration. But as far as stability goes, not a whole lot different than last year.
47:35Yeah. It's nice to have that stability. It means whatever you were doing was working.
47:40So GM, who you referenced, Mickey Loomis has been, will be, I think he's probably going to die in office.
47:46Like, I just don't see that changing for the same.
47:49A lot of that happening these days. Each. Head coach, Kellen Moore.
47:53We've talked a lot about Kellen and he has been a positive addition.
47:57I don't think there's any way to look at his addition for New Orleans and say that it has not been positive in just about every way.
48:06That's great. The associate head coach on this team is the running back coach, Joel Thomas, offensive coordinator, Doug Nussmeyer, defensive coordinator,
48:13Brandon Staley, and the special teams coordinator is Phil Galliano.
48:16I do want to hit on Brandon Staley a little bit just because he, he's done a good job kind of rehabbing
48:24his, his image since he got to New Orleans, you know, going back to when he was DC with the Rams, you
48:31know, a lot of coaches, they look at the style of defense he called with the Rams and they, I don't want
48:38to say like knockoff Fangio, but like kind of like he would, he would just kind of do batshit stuff that only
48:45worked because he had Aaron Donald and he tried to translate that to the chargers, but without having Aaron Donald and it just didn't work.
48:53And so a lot of people were like, okay, can you, can you be a real coordinator here and call a defense based on the personnel you have?
49:02Not just, I have arguably the greatest defensive player ever, which allows me to get away with stuff that nobody else can get away with.
49:10Like, can you actually evolve and call real defense?
49:13He called a real defense with the saints last year, obviously did not have anything close ballot.
49:18Didn't even have like 70% of an Aaron Donald in this defense.
49:22And still they were top 12 to 16 in a lot of categories.
49:26So to me, that was Brandon Staley's best coaching job in quite a while.
49:31And it proved that he can call a real defense without having a star player.
49:36And some guys are just better coordinators when they step down off the top spot and they no longer have head coach responsibilities, which are massive.
49:44There are so many, the, the elevation in responsibility from coordinator level to head coach level in the NFL is unbelievably large.
49:51And some guys just don't handle that load as well and are much more comfortable at the coordinator level and just quite frankly, better at that job.
50:00And Staley might be one of those guys and there's nothing wrong with that.
50:04When we get into the assistant coaches, QB coach obviously deserves a lot of credit here.
50:10It's Scott Tolzien, former quarterback himself. But when you see young quarterbacks and again, Rattler still a young quarterback, Shuck, obviously a
50:17rookie making steps, making strides in the offense. QB coaches are a big part of that and bringing those guys along, getting used to NFL game plans.
50:25So got a shout out, Scott offensive line coach, Brennan Nugent.
50:29He had a lot of work to do last year.
50:32Whenever you have that many sort of revolving doors on an offensive line, it's tough to hold it together.
50:38Didn't have the greatest results, but again, the quarterbacks were upright.
50:42Like they had to make adjustments and bring in lots of extra pass pro that, you know, sometimes that's just a realization
50:49of look, the guys with the starting five we have in there are not going to hold up for what we need to do.
50:57So if we want to keep doing that, we need to do it in a different way.
51:02Coaching staff made the adjustment. He's certainly part of that.
51:05And then the tight ends coach, Chase Hazlitt. Yeah.
51:08Name should sound familiar, especially in New Orleans. Uh, senior defensive assistant is a spot I want to hit on.
51:15This is Peter Genta. 47 years worth of coaching experience, including 35 in the NFL and three Superbowl wins.
51:21That is a big part. He worked with the secondary and he worked with the defensive pass game coordinator, Terry Joseph last year to again, get those results.
51:30They've got some young players in that secondary guys like Jonas Sankar who played really well.
51:35Um, that is again, having that sort of coaching horsepower to be able to say, look, we don't necessarily have a superstar
51:42at corner or multiple superstars at corner. We don't have necessarily an all pro all time safety.
51:47We're going to have to play well as a unit again, behind a very structured, but not high octane pass rush.
51:54And that's going to require us to play within the system just like they do.
51:59And that's the handshake. And those guys really get that going.
52:03The edges coach is Jay Rogers. Second season in New Orleans.
52:06Interestingly enough, he came from Atlanta. So he's on the other side of that rivalry.
52:11Now the defensive line coach is Bo Davis. This is the one I want to highlight.
52:16We've talked about it a little bit, but this is specific.
52:20Saints improved from 31st to sixth best in rushing yards per play allowed.
52:24That was Davis's first season. Whenever you see that kind of jump without, like you said, a massive influx of high powered
52:31personnel, that's a hell of a coaching job. So Bo Davis gets the call out for that one.
52:37The assistant defensive line coach is Brian Young, another name familiar to Saints fans played nine years in the NFL for the
52:44Rams and the Saints and a linebackers coach. Pete Sermon moved to the NFL last year after.
52:49And this caught me. I just got to say 17 years on the collegiate level.
52:54How in the world has Pete Sermon been coaching in college for 17 years?
52:59I remember him playing. He played seven seasons with the Titans, 2000 to 2006.
53:03And yes, if you do the math, I know it all works out.
53:07So he must have started like immediately. He went straight to college coaching after his playing career.
53:13And I understand that. But seeing 17 as the number of years he's been out of the NFL before he came back, I was like, that's not right.
53:22That's got to be a typo. And that's just me going, oh, that was, you know, thinking about something in the 90s
53:29and going, oh, that was 25 years ago. You're like, no, that was 30 years ago.
53:34You're like, oh, I saw this post that the difference between now and 1990 is the same as 1990 and 1954.
53:41And I was like, hey, man, fuck you. Hey, stop that.
53:44That was the illustration of that was Pete Sermon's length of collegiate coaching service before coming back to be a linebackers coach in the NFL.
53:52I didn't realize that Chase Hazlett was Jim's son.
53:55I probably should have put that together. But it makes sense.
53:59The Saints do like to kind of keep it in the family.
54:03So, you know, once a Saint, always a Saint, even if your dad was the Saint.
54:08All right, let's get to free agency recap here.
54:11A fair amount of turnover. Not the same Saints kind of offense that we've grown used to over the years.
54:17Like they're finally, you know, getting out of the wilderness, the cap wilderness, so to speak, so that they don't have to
54:24continuously push the can down the road anymore with contracts that they know are bad, but they can't get out of them
54:31because they were still kind of digging out of that COVID hole they got into.
54:36Like the one time the cap went down in 25 years, it was the time they could least afford for it to go down.
54:44And it took them five years of pushing contracts down the road to finally get out of that.
54:50Of that situation caused by the cap going down the COVID year.
54:54So now they're fine. They don't have to do that anymore.
54:57They got through it. And as a result, we see them in a much healthier long term cap position and they can
55:04make a lot more healthy free agency moves. Now, as for who departed from this team, Taysom Hill, longtime Saint, you know,
55:11Swiss Army knife, kind of the definition of a Swiss Army knife.
55:1536 years old. Maybe he wants to go play for Sean Payton for one more year.
55:20I haven't seen him even get a workout somewhere.
55:23So maybe he's done. Again, he's 36. He played for a long time.
55:27Not to mention when he came out of BYU, he was already an older player as it is.
55:33So maybe he's done, done either way. A lot of fun moments for the Saints, you know, played there forever.
55:40Dante Pettis still in the league. There's a lot of guys on this list.
55:44A lot of guys on this list who you're looking down and you go, Dante Pettis.
55:49Another one for me was Jonathan Bullard, who's coming up in this list.
55:54Like, yeah, really nice career for guys like Jonathan Bullard.
55:57And Taysom Hill, great career in terms of, you know, came out and everybody said, well, he won't be this.
56:03He won't be this. He won't be this. Look at how many things he was.
56:08He was like a super weapon when they played him at tight end.
56:12He was a problem when they played him at quarterback.
56:16You really had to prepare differently. That's difficult. There's limited preparation time under the CBA.
56:20And he was just a wild card that they could throw in there and an effective one at that.
56:26So, and again, Dante Pettis, you know, no matter what you thought Dante Pettis was going to be way back when he
56:34got drafted, he's still in the league at 31, still getting paid to play football.
56:38So really, I'd like seeing those guys' careers. They are the stories we don't hear as much about as the top line guys.
56:46But whenever you've managed to do it for a decade or more in the NFL, it's a real achievement.
56:52Yeah. Jonah Williams, another one. Like, he's 31 already.
56:55Like, did he ever turn into what people hoped he would be for how high he got drafted?
57:01No. But he's going to play a decade. Like, that's a successful career, I would say, even if he didn't live up
57:08to what people thought he could be. Is it Mario Davis?
57:11Talking about successful career. My God. 37. He's had two of them.
57:15Still going. Still quality. Yeah. Yeah, he's actually on his second Jets career now after having a full Jets career and a full Saints career.
57:23Going back for thirds. $11 million. And honestly, like, still starting caliber.
57:27It's crazy. Luke Fortner, he is now with the Panthers.
57:30Kind of saved their ass last year at the center position.
57:34Again, not that he was great, but the alternative would have been so much worse if they didn't have Luke Fortner.
57:41Foster Moreau, again, longtime Saint. He's now in Houston.
57:43Alante Taylor, very quality corner. He is now going to go bail out the Titans secondary that desperately needed him.
57:50You know, paying him just over $19 million a year.
57:53And even though I would have liked for him to stay in New Orleans.
57:58Again, they're not entirely out of the cap woods.
58:01Like, they just couldn't afford to match that deal.
58:03It would have been very irresponsible. I think they wanted to keep Alante Taylor in terms of he's been a very good player for them.
58:11His play style. We were just talking about players that didn't necessarily live up to their draft billing.
58:17I think Alante Taylor did and then some. So they would have liked to keep him in the fold.
58:23But they knew he was going to come in around $20 million.
58:27And when they look at the overall balance of their team, it was one of those.
58:32Probably just going to have to bite the bullet here and let him go.
58:37We don't really want to, but we can't pay him what he's going to get on the open market.
58:43Yeah. For context, they have 1.9 million in space right now.
58:47Lowest in the NFL. Next year, they go up to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.
58:53The fact that you have to count more than two is real progress for the Saints.
58:5816? Tremendous. You're going to have average cap space, EJ.
59:01It's a miracle. It is literally a miracle. We're talking about a team called the Saints and that is literally a miracle.
59:09And then 2028, they projected $155 million available. That's like top nine.
59:12So again, they're almost out of it. They're getting out of it.
59:16It's not like, oh, we have $100 million over the cap we have to clear.
59:21Here, let's sign Cam Jordan until he's 47 years old.
59:24It's no longer that type of situation. So it's good.
59:28They're making progress. That being said, they did re-sign Cam Jordan.
59:31I was going to say, in terms of the way they spent the money that they do have, which is some, which
59:38is better than Saints teams of years past for sure.
59:41Dylan Radden's a right tackle. They re-signed him. It's a $3.5 million deal.
59:46He was very valuable for them last year, unfortunately.
59:48Since then, he's injured. He's out for the year on IR.
59:52Julian Blackman at safety is currently projected as a starter for them.
59:56He's 28. They get him for a very reasonable $2.5 million.
59:59Chris Olave was the big one, $31 million. And Chris Olave, when healthy, big asterisk, is one of the coolest receivers for me to watch in the NFL.
60:08I loved his profile coming out. Again, he's come out of what is now the receiver factory of Ohio State.
60:15The problem is he's had injuries, and unfortunately, those injuries have been concussions.
60:19And concussions are very difficult to predict. The one thing that is baseline about concussions is the more you get, the easier it is to get them.
60:28So a lot of people saw that risk, and I'm sure there is significant language around the injury risk in his contract.
60:35Hopefully, he stays healthy and on the field for multiple reasons, but very interesting contract by them and definitely raised a lot of eyebrows around the NFL.
60:44And then the aforementioned Cam Jordan, ageless at this point, 37.
60:47They signed him for $7.5 million. So, you know, I would say money well spent.
60:52The Radden's thing is unfortunate, but that is it.
60:55Life happens in the NFL moment. The Olave thing, I can see it.
60:59You don't want to let that player out. He is special when he's on the field, but it does come with a fair amount of risk.
61:07As far as third-party money, mentioned him earlier. Noah Fant brought in a little over $4 million a year to be TE something.
61:15I don't know if it's two or three. Immediately two, I would say, because he is a veteran, but very quickly and
61:22by the end of the season, I would predict probably three.
61:25David Edwards, that was the big one. $15 million, which is well worth it.
61:30Not that it's the same for center and guard market, but I'm going to keep bringing it up.
61:36David Edwards at $15 million, Tyler Linderbaum at $27 million.
61:39I'm pretty sure David Edwards is going to have just as much impact as Tyler Linderbaum will for the Raiders.
61:45Again, similarly awful run games for $12 million less per year.
61:49That's a great signing by them. Martin Emerson brought him in about $1.5 million.
61:53Just complete lotto ticket based on what he was three years ago now, pre-injury.
61:58Was a very effective corner his second year in the league, I believe, was the one where he led the Browns in pass breakups.
62:06Zach Wilson, that was kind of a sneaky signing because I'm like, oh, are they planning on trading Rattler?
62:12We'll see. Their first preseason game, I think, is today.
62:15We're recording this August 13th. So if Rattler plays really well, maybe Rattler gets traded.
62:20They get a pick out of it. They still have Zach Wilson there as a backup.
62:25We'll see. But that signing was intriguing to me.
62:28Caden Ellis brought him back. Is he just bouncing between Atlanta and New Orleans every year at this point?
62:34But he's back at $11 million. And then Travis Achan, obviously $12 million, which considering what the running back market is right now.
62:41We just saw Gibbs and Bijon both get signed to huge numbers.
62:45Obviously, CMC's at a huge number. $12 million for Achan felt like a value.
62:50And then speaking of lotto tickets, Tyree Wilson at about $6.2 million, obviously has never turned into what the Raiders hoped he would be.
62:58And I encourage you guys to look at who got drafted right after Tyree Wilson because good God, that ended up working against Vegas.
63:05But maybe the Saints can get something out of him.
63:09I think this is, you said lottery ticket, but it's also a calculated risk in terms of Chase Young had had some success at other stops.
63:17But again, I would say arguably never turned into what people thought Chase Young was going to be pre-draft.
63:23He's had a very nice later career resurgence with New Orleans.
63:27And this is the Saints, I think, again, saying, hey, here's a player with at least a similar physical profile in some ways that never ascended.
63:35Maybe we can get him in our system. If he plays within the defense, we can get something out of him.
63:42The fact that $6 million, I know a lot of people are going to look at that number and go, that's way too much for a guy.
63:50It's not. Like, look at the other edges making $6 million around the league if Tyree Wilson does start to blossom in
63:58the Saints defense, which they already have some precedent for.
64:01That's going to look like a very good signing.
64:04And the Caden Ellis signing, again, $11 million for what they think they're going to get out of him in the middle
64:11of this defense, I think is a very solid market signing.
64:14They're going to get their money's worth. They're expecting to play him a lot there.
64:19I know some of you didn't Google it, so I'm just going to read it off for you.
64:25Tyree Wilson, the five picks in order after Tyree Wilson all set records for their positions and contracts this offseason at the time.
64:32So Tyree Wilson at seven, at eight, the Falcons took Bijon, at nine, the Eagles took Jalen Carter, at 10, the Bears
64:39took Darnell Wright, at 11, the Titans took Peter Skorosky, and at 12, the Lions took Jameer Gibbs.
64:45That's how people get fired. Sad trombone music right there.
64:48You know, we talk about it all the time.
64:51It's one of the reasons we focus on the draft, the strategy of the draft.
64:56Um, it's one of the reasons that I'm fascinated by the draft is because if you make decisions that are good for
65:03your team, people say the right decision or the wrong decision.
65:07Well, there's a lot that goes into that. But if you make decisions that are good for your team, the amount, not
65:14only just of sort of wins over replacement, if you're looking at it that way, but the amount of money and hassle
65:21that you save on to the point where, again, first round picks up high in the top 10, don't pan out.
65:28Coaches get fired. Sometimes GMs get fired with them.
65:31Do you know how much that costs? That entire retooling of an organization?
65:35I'm not just talking about paying out the coach contract because those are guaranteed.
65:39Um, but you know, bringing a whole new system into the building, you're talking about 60 plus percent roster turnover at minimum within the first 16 months.
65:48That's incredibly expensive. Like missing up high in the draft and conversely hitting up high in the draft.
65:54And, you know, again, paying homegrown talent, not having to go out, pay overpay and free agency.
65:59The difference between those two lines diverging on a pick or two picks up high in the draft is massive.
66:06Like talk about butterfly flaps and swings type stuff that those are the moments in the NFL where a team can really
66:13turn one way or another, either positively or negatively.
66:16So when you look at that and you look at it's yes, made worse by the fact that the next five picks are really, really good.
66:24It just sort of stands out as, you know, reminds me of, uh, Indiana Jones and the last crusade.
66:30He chose poorly, poorly. So not to be a downer as we get into the draft, but five of the seven picks after Jordan Tyson at eight.
66:39So Browns took Spencer Fano giants took Francis Malinoa is going to be guard for them this year.
66:45Cowboys took Caleb downs. I'm just going to completely ignore the existence of Caden Proctor and Ty Simpson.
66:51But after that, the Ravens took Vanga you want a, and the bucks took Ruben Bain.
66:56I'm not going to say, will the saints regret picking Jordan Tyson?
67:00Cause Jordan Tyson, when he's been healthy this off season, actually looks really good.
67:04What are the odds that we look back on this in a few years ago?
67:09Probably, probably could have taken a harder look at you want to air Ruben Bain there.
67:14Yeah. There's some trench talent there that could have helped you out.
67:18And I would say over the course of the entire thing, we're looking league wide last, let's say five years, very modern NFL.
67:25In rare circumstances, not picking the highly rated trench player has helped your team out more than picking the highly rated trench player, offensive or defensive, right?
67:34If you have stars of those positions or guys that are projected to have very good careers, again, draft hit rate is what it is.
67:42But when you average that out over time, the safer move typically statistically is to reinforce the trenches.
67:48It's not as sexy. It's harder to sell tickets with, but over time in terms of what makes a bigger difference, again,
67:55if either player hits, because we could talk about hit rates.
67:59Well, hit rates for offensive linemen are higher in the first round, certainly than wide receiver.
68:04Wide receiver is one of the lowest hit rates in the first round.
68:08So you're already taking a chance just picking one position over another.
68:12But if you have similarly graded players and you're saying, huh, trench or not, the idea is typically trench.
68:18And they chose to go away from that. I understand the thinking.
68:22They went after trenches and free agency. I get it.
68:25Like, cool. But yeah, I think the chances that you asked about are pretty high that we look at one of those
68:32several players, handful of players that you called out and go, you know, you would have helped.
68:37You would have helped a lot. You would have helped grand.
68:41I just think two, at least two of them, maybe even three of them would have made the Cesar Ruiz problem go away.
68:48Oh, yes. I agree. So I'm like, who, what will have a larger impact on the offense, especially if we want to get into more 12 personnel stuff.
68:57And we talked about clean pockets and shuck and the effect that that has on him.
69:03So like, these are all the multiple variables, Jordan Tyson, very good player.
69:07And, you know, may have an excellent career for the Saints.
69:10I hope he does because he's exciting and fun to watch.
69:14But when you look back at these, all these are the variables, like what would have been necessarily, you know, the better pick for the overall picture?
69:23Not just the quarterback we have now, but offensive line health.
69:26Talk about the rushing game and that needing to be boosted.
69:30Like it takes multiple boxes to pick up a high level into your player here.
69:35I realize this top 10, that's rarefied air for, for guards typically.
69:38But I'd say there were a couple that were at least worthy of consideration at that.
69:44I kind of want to just list the entire draft class to start, get the entire picture of what they did.
69:50Cause again, this, this team clearly love this receiver class and then we can kind of bounce around and pick what angle
69:57we want to talk about it here. So Jordan Tyson, again, eighth overall out of Arizona state, Kristen Miller, 42nd overall.
70:04Some people's DT one in this class. Not that I didn't love banks.
70:08I did love banks, but we're factoring in health.
70:11I felt like he was the safest of the DTs.
70:14Oscar Delp, another Georgia player, tight end that can really run.
70:18And Georgia just gave him 15 targets a year for whatever fucking reason.
70:22I don't know. Jeremiah Wright, guard out of Auburn in the fourth round.
70:26Bryce Lance, the EJ Snyder special also in the fourth round.
70:30Lorenzo Stiles, the other Stiles brother out of Ohio state in the fifth round.
70:34Marion Brown, likely going to be a returner for them if I had to imagine at least this year out of LSU in the sixth round.
70:43And then TJ Hall, the corner out of Iowa in the seventh round.
70:47I kind of want to start with the receivers here just because we already started that discussion.
70:52If I look at the Bryce Lance pick in the fourth and the Tyson pick in the first, was Tyson a better receiver than Lance coming out?
71:01Obviously. But again, we've already seen the hamstring issues pop up today.
71:05We're not even through training camp. And Bryce Lance was a very, very physically gifted receiver that does all the stuff that Kellen likes to do.
71:13Am I crazy for thinking that Lance of the two, just like not prospect evaluations in a vacuum, value wise, Lance was their better value pick at receiver.
71:22So I, without a doubt for me, and you need to talk about obviously.
71:27And I'm like, well, again, depending on how you're rating those.
71:30Bryce Lance, uh, yards per reception, 21.2 number one in this class of wide receivers.
71:35Yards per route run. Speaking of the EJ Snyder special, one of the stats I just absolutely love and go back to every single year.
71:43Bryce Lance, 3.58 number one in this class. That 3.58 is, is nearing.
71:48That's like JSN Puka levels. Those guys are up near four, which is absurd, especially in the NFL.
71:53But Bryce Lance, 3.58. Very good blocker. Tough physical guy.
71:57Great speed. Great ability to elevate down the boundary.
71:596'3", 204. Jumps just absolutely like a gazelle. Love, love, love.
72:03Better than average catch percentage, uh, contested catch percentage, 66.7.
72:06Uh, you know, you talk about Jordan Tyson, 60% still above average for a contested catch percentage, uh, yards per reception, 11.7, literally half of Bryce Lance.
72:15And if we're talking about yards per route run, it's 2.37.
72:19Like, if you talk about objectively better, like, yes, highly physical skill, physically skilled, great player, separates very, very well, really productive.
72:26Talk about like obviously better. And I'm like, this is one of those where I would say, hey, I'd like to put
72:33those two receivers who are not the same player.
72:36Like similarly size, Tyson, 6'2", 203. Bryce Lance, 6'3", 204.
72:39So, you know, an inch different, but you know, not apples to oranges size wise.
72:44Use wise, a little bit different. Tyson certainly had a little bit more slot to him.
72:49Um, Lance was used more deeper down the field.
72:52Uh, Lance is, I believe faster, uh, than Tyson as well, but there's not many people that are faster than Bryce Lance tell you that much.
73:00No, there are not. Bryce Lance was a draft crusher mine and I like Tyson as well.
73:06But when you're talking about value, you're talking about three rounds different here, which is crazy to me.
73:11And, um, talk about just odd coincidences. We ended up talking about the draft a lot, both on our own show and other people's shows.
73:19And, uh, I did a interview with Matt Harmon on his show on the Yahoo show, um, at the combine.
73:26And we were talking about five off offensive prospects that I liked that we've done this for a couple of years now.
73:33And one of the guys I brought up was Bryce Lance, because again, I really liked his game.
73:39And at the end, he kind of threw out the question you do sometimes like, well, where do you think he fits?
73:46I was like, I don't know. I think he'd look really good across from, across the line from Chris Alave in New Orleans and completely forgot about that.
73:55Because then again, that's February. We go through the whole draft process, all the shows, whatever draft night.
74:01Matt sends me that. He's like, what up Nostradamus?
74:04And I was like, oh my God, I forgot about that.
74:07I literally forgot about it. But I think he's a great addition.
74:11I think he is going to play and contribute here for multiple reasons.
74:15And in terms of value, I don't think it's close.
74:18If you can get a player in the fourth round who is honestly 80, 85%, possibly 90% of what Tyson is, even
74:25at full health and has a better health profile.
74:28I don't think that's even a question worth debating in terms of value.
74:33I think a lot of it was this team was just scared to death of a lot of getting hurt again.
74:39Yes. And staring down the barrel of like Devon Bailey being our guy.
74:43And so they just really, really hammered. And again, I like Devon Bailey, but like they, you can't go into a game
74:51with just that and a bunch of tight ends.
74:53Like you need some. So I think they wanted to give them options where if we want to be an 11 personnel
75:01team, we can be a very dangerous 11 personnel team.
75:04And I get it. Not to mention the receiver market is exploding.
75:08A lot of them got 31 million. Yeah. That would have been almost inconceivable even a couple of years ago where the
75:15not even top tier receivers are in the 30s.
75:18George Pickens might get like 36 when all is said and done.
75:22Zay Flowers just exceeded the highest guarantees for receiver in history by $20 million.
75:26That's just where the market is. And so they're like, well, screw it.
75:30We're going to get a higher surplus value per dollar on an eighth overall receiver compared to an eighth overall trench.
75:37I get it. Yeah, I get it. It's just then I see the hamstring injury pop up.
75:42I'm like, motherfucker. The one thing we didn't need.
75:45You had one job. No, I again, this is not anti-Jordan Tyson propaganda at all.
75:50He is a very good and should be a very effective player for them if he can stay on the field.
75:57It is concerning given a lot of his health profile that they didn't pick a receiver.
76:02Maybe that was a little more robust throughout college.
76:05But again, we've seen that go the opposite way.
76:08We've seen receivers who've been incredibly healthy in college have injury issues pop up in the NFL and vice versa.
76:14Guys that were, you know, multi-time injury recipients in college be, you know, have a clean bill of health in the NFL.
76:21So this isn't about futures. If he's on the field and he's healthy, he'll make a big impact for this offense.
76:28And again, you're looking at the overall prospect of where we are as a team.
76:33What do we need to do? Obviously 27th best pass offense in the NFL.
76:38We need more targets for this young quarterback. We need some protection for sure, but we need more targets.
76:44And they have MOAR targets now after the draft and free agency.
76:48So I see the approach for sure. We can, you know, we can play that game, this or that, all we want.
76:55And we will in the future. And so will all the Saints fans.
76:59But Christian Miller at, you know, in the second round at 42, Christian Miller was a player that a lot of people,
77:06including you, were more impressed by in the pre-draft process than I was.
77:10I think he is a good player to be clear.
77:13I think he was my DT3. Yeah, he's my DT3.
77:17Top of my second tier after Hunter and McDonald for me.
77:20Different type of a player. Has more, I would say, penetrating ability than either of those first two.
77:26So if you're looking for a little bit more rush, a potential out of your defensive tackle, I understand it.
77:32Pairing him with, again, a guy that is not going to be on the field for them and Brian Brissi this year,
77:39unfortunately, would have been a very fun rush defensive tackle pairing.
77:43But we're not going to get to see that.
77:46So I think he's a good player. I think he was a good value where they picked him as well.
77:52He just wasn't, he was just one of those players that I was like, yep, he's good.
77:58But I didn't, he didn't really move the needle for me.
78:01I wasn't like pounding the table or running out to go get Christian Miller.
78:06If he needed a defensive tackle at the top of the strap, which they did, and again, they get him at 42.
78:13It was appropriate value. It's not like an overspend or a way too early for me.
78:18It's just kind of like, ah, yeah, they got Christian Miller.
78:22Okay. Good. I just think they wanted somebody with flexibility, right?
78:25Yes. Because all these Georgia DTs, you know, anything from a shade to a five, they can do it.
78:31And the scheme is designed to not really let these guys produce.
78:35The only one that ever really did was Jalen Carter.
78:38But Devontae Wyatt, well, actually, Devontae Wyatt did have some production in college as well, but maybe not as much as he
78:45would have if he played anywhere else. Yeah, yeah.
78:48Because he was a very, very talented TT in his own right.
78:52Same thing with Jordan Davis. Like, you know, when all three of those guys were in the same interior rotation, A, they
78:59cannibalized each other, but B, like Channing Tindall let them in sacks that year, or it might've been one of the other linebackers.
79:07Like, they're just a very, very different defense that feeds production into their linebackers and safeties because their whole thing is we're
79:14going to rush the passer by getting a free runner through, like, creative blitz looks and everything.
79:19We're going to make a 20-year-old try to figure out how to block a complex look.
79:24And, spoiler alert, they can't do it. They don't know.
79:28Like, they're just fresh out of high school and then they go to Georgia and Kirby Smart's just throwing the most diabolical
79:35shit they've ever seen at them and they don't know what to do.
79:39So they short circuit and Channing Tindall gets like eight sacks as a linebacker.
79:43So that's just how their scheme operates. If you look at the very few reps where Kristen Miller actually got to rush
79:51the passer, like throw a pass rush move, he was good at it.
79:55So it's a lot of projection as we tend to do with Georgia defensive linemen once upon a time.
80:01Trayvon Walker, same thing. Took a while for Trayvon Walker to get there, but like he's there, he's good.
80:07You know, Jordan Davis started a little bit slow, ended up working out really well in the NFL.
80:13Obviously, he just got paid. Jalen Carter started out really fast, then got injured, both shoulders, but we've seen what he can do when he's at his best.
80:22He's great. And Devontae White, again, turned into a very productive player in the NFL with the Packers as well.
80:28So like, I think the history is there. These underutilized Georgia DTs get drafted in the first and second round because people
80:35see the talent and they trust in that talent.
80:38And I think the Saints do as well. They see him as being a potential centerpiece for the future.
80:44They could play a variety of spots and just be good.
80:48Just be good. And they need him to. And we'll see if that pans out.
80:53But I hope that it does. The physical talent, like you said, is certainly there.
80:58Like, it might not have been highlighted in the scheme.
81:01I would say it wasn't highlighted in the scheme.
81:04But it's not that he is bereft of physical talent.
81:07Far from it. He is wildly physically talented as most Georgia front four defenders are.
81:12In the third round at 73, they go back to Georgia again.
81:16They get Delp, who, speaking of underutilized players, has crazy physical skills.
81:19And this comes down to the classic draft truism of, you know, can't do it or wasn't asked to do it.
81:26And strangely enough, with Delp, it wasn't asked to do it.
81:30He absolutely can do it. His physical profile is crazy for a tight end.
81:34It's closer to a wide receiver from a speed perspective.
81:37Size perspective is better. That's why he's a tight end.
81:41But like, I think he is one of those players who could be a better pro and probably will be a better pro than he was a collegian.
81:50If he is, it's just another target on this offense now full of targets.
81:54The fourth round, they get two players. 132, it's Jeremiah Wright, the guard out of Auburn.
81:59Again, they need interior support on this offensive line.
82:02Wright didn't necessarily move the needle for me. And then at 136, it's Bryce Lance.
82:07We talked about the wide receiver out of North Dakota State.
82:11I thought that was a great pick. Probably my favorite pick of the draft for them overall.
82:16But what did you think of Wright? I think he's going to be a depth guard for them.
82:22I think he's really physical. I think he's stout.
82:25Movement ability, average. But if you just want a phone booth fighter, I think he can absolutely be that for you.
82:32I don't know how much like of a wide zone team they really want to be.
82:37Because again, while they did, yes, trend higher and under center towards the end of the year, again, like Gunn is still,
82:44I think, going to be shucks bread and butter for a while and you're not really going to be a wide zone team from the gun.
82:52It's really more like counter inside zone, all that kind of stuff.
82:56Like really, the north-south phone booth type of skill set works well for that kind of run game.
83:02So maybe they drafted him for that purpose. If they really want to be an under center wide zone team, I'm not sure.
83:09He's got the movement skills for that. But again, we'll find out what their run game looks like this year because it's new.
83:17Like new guard, new running back, new a lot.
83:20Hopefully new results too. Yes. Hard to be worse.
83:23Hard to be worse. Their last three picks, Lorenzo Stiles, Barion Brown, TJ Hall, all three of them to me strike me
83:30as special teams but for different reasons. Lorenzo Stiles, obviously a great athlete, stiff as a board, but I think he can be a gunner.
83:38I really don't want him covering people. But as far as linear speed and tackling ability, I think he is tailor-made for special teams in that regard.
83:46And Barion Brown, I think it'd be a really dangerous returner for them.
83:51TJ Hall also, again, probably going to be a special teamer.
83:54So, you know, as far as entire draft class, okay, we made our receiving core super deep.
84:00We gave ourselves a young backup guard option, which they already might need.
84:04We have a really exciting field stretcher at tight end.
84:07We have another body to add to the interior defensive line rotation, which again, they already need because Percy got hurt.
84:14And we got a bunch of special teamers. As far as plugging leaks in the ship in one off season combined with
84:21what they did in free agency, I can't really complain too much.
84:25Again, I would have done something different at eighth overall, but if that's my only gripe, I think it's pretty good.
84:31It's a sensible draft that when I look at this and we come back to it again with several months of kind
84:39of hindsight, that's what just kept popping up for me.
84:42This draft made sense. Do I love it? I don't love it.
84:46I love a few of the players. Overall, as a haul, do I think it's, you know, did they get the best value at every pick?
84:54Nah, they didn't, but few teams do. From where they are in a development curve as a team and what their needs
85:01were, again, balanced on free agency, which is what the draft and free agency should be.
85:06It should be a handshake. It made sense. This wasn't one of the drafts where I went either with the players that
85:13they picked or the sort of positions that they highlighted where I went, what are you doing?
85:19Like, that's not where you were hurting. This is, hey, we got to be a better passing offense.
85:25We put a lot towards that. We got to have more depth on the interior offensive line.
85:30Again, they got the player they think fits for them and defensive line, same thing.
85:35We need to keep that room full of good young talent and they did.
85:39So, yeah, we can have quibbles about which guys they picked, not huge ones, but overall, it was impossible for me to
85:47look at this draft and go, oh, that just doesn't make sense.
85:50It makes a lot of sense. As for UDFAs, the one name we were going to bring up was Zavian Harris and
85:57he got waived a few days ago. So, I got nothing else to you.
86:02No, Zavian Harris was the guy that I really wanted to talk about and again, he ended up being selected as a UDFA not because of physical talent.
86:11This is a guy that was 6'8", 330, played 693 snaps last year in college.
86:16That was more than 150 more than next most utilized defensive tackle.
86:20So, massive guy, played a ton of snaps, had a bunch of production and, you know, second overall in this class in
86:27stops behind Caden McDonald with only two less. Caden McDonald had 34, Zavian Harris had 32.
86:32Like, he's a tremendously physically talented player. I don't know what's going on there.
86:36This isn't me knowing and not sharing. This is me going on field.
86:41Tremendous player. Great physical skills. Awesome flashes on tape.
86:44Obviously something else going on there. All right, let's get to our real patron viewer note for this one.
86:50Did kind of a half one before, but interesting discussion for the real one.
86:54This comes from William Stokes over on the Patreon.
86:57Saints fan here. My main question is how long do you guys think it will take for the larger NFL fan community
87:04to realize the NFC South isn't the weakest in the league anymore?
87:08There was a period of a few years where they were all bottom feeders, but that time has passed and they're all at minimum solid teams on paper.
87:17Okay. Talking about the characterization of the word minimum there.
87:20I'm curious to see how long it'll take for that perception to shift.
87:24Can we just run through all divisions one by one and you can tell me if you think they're better in the NFC South?
87:32Well, before we do that, I'm going to go with how low the bar is that William's trying to step over here.
87:39We're going to go extremely. We're going to go with at minimum solid teams, not great, on paper, which is the thinnest possible designation of.
87:47They're not medium good teams on grass, which would make them a midline division.
87:52They are at minimum solid on paper. That is, that is the bars on the ground.
87:57Just don't trip on it. So given that fair, by the way, considering the last 10 years, that's very fair.
88:03He's not wrong saying that they are better than where they have been.
88:08He is also not setting up a hurdle that they are going to have to strain to jump over.
88:14Let's put it that way. So we'll go through it one by one here.
88:18AFC West better. Yes or no? Yes. NFC West.
88:21Oh, absolutely. It's not a question. NFC North. Way better.
88:24AFC North. Okay. This is where, you know, again, looking at what we're talking about, what Carolina can be, what we think the Saints are going to be.
88:33How many AFC North teams are at minimum solid on paper compared to the NFC South?
88:39I'll give it a dead heat, but if I had to put the momentum meter in it, because I know NFL fans
88:46hate the notion of momentum, well, lots of them do, I would give the NFC South greater momentum, sort of upwards momentum,
88:53where I would give the AFC North not as much.
88:56AFC East. This one's tricky because it's two great teams and two bad teams.
89:00Yeah, I'm going to lean with the strength of the division on this one and the idea that we, again, started this
89:08series off with that Miami is trending in the right direction.
89:11We're going to have to see it again on grass.
89:14We think they're making some good moves and not unlike the Saints that they are maybe a year away from being solid
89:21or middle of the road, but they're making the right moves to get there.
89:26It's not going to probably be this year, might be next year if all of it works, probably what they're aiming for is really the year after that.
89:35So I would say upward trend for Miami, top two teams in the division, very, very powerful jets are great young talent.
89:42Let's see what actually works out because the Jets, at least in our experience, always find a way to kind of muck it up.
89:50NFC East Eagles and Cowboys alone. I would say this is closer though to William's point.
89:55If you're talking about pure perception and you talk to, I would say, more casual NFL fans or NFL fans that aren't
90:02fans of an NFC East team, they just go, yeah, well, NFC is definitely better than NFC South.
90:08And he's like, what I think is he's trying to say is that gap in reality has closed.
90:14Washington could be really not great this year. Philly, we think, is going to be strong and we really think Dallas is going to have a good year.
90:23And then the Giants, I got worries about the Giants.
90:26Like, I have more worries about the commanders, but I have worries about the Giants.
90:31So again, that makes this division a lot closer, sort of more gettable, whereas people, I think, look at the South and
90:38the perception, which is really what William's poking at here of like, in traditional bottom feeders, oh, the South nowhere close to the NFC East.
90:46I'm like, at the end of the year, would it really surprise you when we do our division power rankings if the
90:53South was very, very close to the NFC East?
90:56I would not be I would not be terribly surprised.
90:59We're slandering the NFC East than propping up the NFC South.
91:03It's more so like, nah, man, you're down in the mud with us now.
91:07Welcome. Yeah, that's true too. They are closer and I think that's kind of the gist of what William's getting at here.
91:14William, you can tell me if I'm wrong in the comments, but it certainly seems like, hey, that gap is not as far as people think it is.
91:23There's still a gap. NFC East, still better than NFC South, but not by nearly as much as maybe it was in years past.
91:31Here's the interesting one. AFC South versus NFC South.
91:34The two divisions that are always seen is the worst.
91:37Right. Boy. Well, we'll talk about it tomorrow, but I have serious concerns about Atlanta.
91:42I do too, man. That's what I keep going back to is like, okay, best case scenario for the Saints is getting to the wildcard round.
91:50Maybe they could win a wildcard game. Sure. I don't think they're getting out of the division round.
91:56And again, we're talking best, best, best case scenario.
91:59Not most likely. Atlanta is spooky over there right now.
92:02Yeah. Just because of everything. And again, we'll, we have the Falcons episode.
92:06And again, we like Carolina. We like them a lot, but man, they've been hit hard by the injury.
92:13Carolina has been super banged up. Tampa fun, super fun could potentially be back.
92:17Right. We don't have a resolution to the Vita Vea stuff right now.
92:21Yeah. You know, Baker is always like just one bad hit away.
92:25Yeah. I would say high variance that there isn't the power at the top of the NFC side.
92:31Like we talked about with say the Eagles and the Cowboys.
92:34Those are two teams we think are going to be pretty good.
92:38Again, results may vary, but we don't think they're going to be bad either one of them.
92:44Would it surprise you if Tampa had a nine win season?
92:47Shouldn't like that's the, that's the category they're in.
92:50Would it surprise you if, you know, it would be pretty surprised by that.
92:55That would be a good turn of events for them.
92:58I think that's a good transition to ceiling and floor because my ceiling for them is 11, but that's the floor is six, but that's everything going right.
93:07So again, we, the NFC South just kind of lacks that traditional power at the top.
93:12And I think, you know, rightfully so that sort of has them characterized in people's eyes when they think about the division
93:19is like, oh, well, who's the, who's the absolute baller at the top, right?
93:24We're talking about the AFC East like Patriots are back.
93:27Clearly, I think they're going to stay that way.
93:30Bills really never left. There's two teams at the top of that division.
93:34Talk about the division, you know, the NFC West like you got the Rams and the Seahawks just won the Super Bowl.
93:41Niners are going to be in it if they're healthy, which is kind of the Carolina situation, but out West and, you
93:48know, so there's teams at the top. We're sure that like the Rams are going to be good and the Hawks are going to be good.
93:57You go to the NFC South, meaning double digit wins.
94:00It could be any of them. Right. Any of them could win it.
94:04Could go up or down. And I think that's, that instability is what lends people to go, oh, well, it's a weak division.
94:11It has the potential for strength in two or three places.
94:15I could see three teams. Again, if Carolina was healthy, I could see the Saints being a very plucky nine or ten win team.
94:23I could see Carolina doing the same and I could see, you know, Tampa being right there, maybe winning 12.
94:29Again, if everybody stays healthy and they figure out the Vita thing, like I could see them as a 12 win team.
94:36Again, if everything goes right for all three of those teams, but I could also see the variance being minus five wins
94:43for all of those teams, which makes it just tougher to predict.
94:47When I have a five game range for ceiling and floor, I haven't done the other ones yet, but I feel like
94:54it's going to be that for every single NFC South team.
94:58I have no idea who's going to be best and worse.
95:01I don't think any of them are getting out of the division round.
95:06I would actually be kind of shocked if they got out of the wildcard round at this point.
95:11If I have confidence level in any of them, it's probably Tampa more than any of them.
95:17I just think that's the perception to William's point.
95:20That's the perception of why people see this as the worst division is because it's really hard to imagine any of them playing past mid January.
95:28If you don't have a superpower in the division, how can you be one of the best divisions?
95:34I think it's just, well, we don't have any of the bottom feeders in here either.
95:39Do you value having an elite team or do you value not having a terrible team?
95:44That really is what the question is about. Again, my ceiling and floor was 11-6.
95:49What's yours? I'm a game off the top and a game off the bottom.
95:54My range is tighter, but my overall expectation, if we're doing the midline of our expectations, it's the same.
96:00I'm 10-7. Again, double-digit win team would be a four-game increase for this team.
96:04Again, looking at all the projections and trying to keep, you know, I would say a reasonable expectation for success this year.
96:11If they had a four-game increase and were a double-digit win team, A, they have a very good shot to win the
96:18division and B, that would still be a four-game increase on a sophomore quarterback, a sophomore head coach.
96:24Like, this is, that would be a very positive result and an upward trend, meaning they're staying on that progression line in a good way.
96:32Seven is more, I think they're going to be better than last year because of the improvements, but seven to me represents,
96:39you know, any of the things that we've talked about through this episode not materializing.
96:44Shuck has a bit of a sophomore slump. That could do it by itself.
96:49The young wide receiver core either experiences injury with both Alave and Tyson.
96:53That would be a huge hit. You know, HM for some reason falls off or the offensive line isn't able to stay healthy.
97:00Any of those things, I still think the defense is going to be solid regardless, but in a tight division, those could
97:07be the difference in a couple of games. They could still win more games than last year.
97:13I think they will win more games than last year.
97:16Again, six-win team last year. My floor is better than they did last year.
97:21That's the lowest I think they'll go. I think this is going to be an improved team.
97:26It's the how much they're going to improve and where we're going to see those improvements.
97:31Again, every other team is also trying to improve and adjust.
97:35They now have the book on Shuck and what the Saints are trying to do to protect him.
97:40They're going to be better able to attack that next season.
97:44Those are all the things you need to stay ahead of in the NFL.
97:49I see the Saints team has improved. I legitimately think 10 wins in this division has a shot to take the title.
97:56I would love to get Saints fans' thoughts. on that down below.
98:00What is a successful season for you in your eyes?
98:03Is winning the division the bar for this year or is it just have Shuck look good, be a stepping stone, and
98:10will really attack this in 2027 when we have more money to work with?
98:14I'm curious what Saints fans would deem to be a good year, all things considered, in a very winnable division.
98:21Tomorrow is the Falcons, obviously, and then we got Bucks and Panthers, and then Friday, once more, we're doing our Patreon show
98:28where we pick our division winner for the NFC South, we pick our rookies of the year for the NFC South, offensive
98:35and defensive player, coach of the year, MVP, bold predictions, all that.
98:39We're doing our entire NFC South wrap-up over on Patreon on Friday, and then we hit our last two divisions after that,
98:46going out west, finishing our last two. So thank you once again for watching, thank you to all of our patrons, thank
98:53you to our sponsors, thank you to Buzzer who co-produced this series with us, thank you to Homage, obviously you can go
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