PodcastFrom Bootleg Football

The AFC's Forgotten Heavyweight | The Jacksonville Jaguars

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 39 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 21, 2026

Published

Fri, August 21, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Parker WashingtonTravis HunterTrevor LawrenceBrenton StrangeBrian Thomas Jr.C.J. WilliamsJosh CameronKyle PittsTrey McBride

Player analysis

Player insights

Brenton Strange

PositiveValue54:57

The source is a strong proponent of Brenton Strange, labeling him an underrated, athletic, and ascending tight end. Despite a $12 million contract that some outsiders questioned, the source argues he is well worth the price and superior to several higher-paid tight ends in a futures market.

Insight page

Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeUsage23:36

Brian Thomas Jr. struggled with chemistry and efficiency with Trevor, particularly on deep routes where he was expected to be the primary threat. The source highlights issues with his release style, miscommunication on route adjustments, and drops. While he showed flashes of potential, he is currently viewed as the WR3 behind Washington and Myers due to these inconsistencies.

Insight page

C.J. Williams

NegativeBust175:54

Similar to Josh Cameron, the source does not see CJ Williams as a significant value or a future starter, expressing little enthusiasm for his prospects on the team.

Insight page

Josh Cameron

NegativeBust175:54

The source expresses skepticism regarding Josh Cameron's potential to earn a starting role, noting a lack of excitement about his value as a day-three wide receiver prospect.

Insight page

Kyle Pitts

PositiveValue57:31

The source acknowledges Kyle Pitts' $17.7 million contract is high but expresses support for him finally getting his due after a long period of underperformance.

Insight page

Parker Washington

PositiveUsage10:35

Parker Washington became a focal point of the Jaguars' offense during their mid-season turnaround, contributing to the team's improved efficiency.

Insight page

PositiveBreakout21:54

The source identifies Parker Washington as the team's unquestioned WR1 during the latter part of last season, noting he was the primary target when the team needed a catch. He demonstrated high-level production across all areas of the field, including deep routes, and his contested catch rate was part of a highly efficient duo with Jacoby Myers. The source argues he is currently underappreciated due to name recognition and a small sample size.

Insight page

Travis Hunter

NegativeRole21:56

The source notes that Travis Hunter will be playing significant snaps at cornerback this year because the team's secondary was poor, making him more valuable to the team at corner than at receiver. While he won't be the WR1, he will remain a key package player on offense, particularly in two-minute drills and red-zone situations where his ability to win 50/50 balls is needed.

Insight page

NegativeUsage176:55

Travis Hunter is mentioned as a key acquisition from the 2025 draft, with the team potentially utilizing him in specific packages, possibly involving 13 personnel sets.

Insight page

Trevor Lawrence

NegativeProjection8:43

Trevor Lawrence is considered a good quarterback, though the source notes occasional issues with ball placement. He remains a central piece of the offense entering his second year in Liam Cohen's system.

Insight page

NegativeProjection28:40

The source attributes the team's offensive struggles early last season to a combination of miscommunication and poor ball placement by Trevor Lawrence, rather than just receiver error. While Lawrence is a good quarterback, the source notes he needs to improve his reading of defensive leverage and ball trajectory on deep fades to reach the offense's full potential.

Insight page

Trey McBride

PositiveValue57:59

Despite the source's high praise for Brenton Strange, they maintain that Trey McBride is a superior player and refuse to budge on his value, even at a $19 million price point.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,179

0:00Is there anything more frustrating in sports than unrealized potential?

0:03Jaguars fans would probably say that there isn't, because they've got a front-row seat to so many talented players not reaching their

0:10ultimate potential, instead only flashing it as a vexing reminder that it was still there, just waiting to be fully unleashed.

0:17Sometimes, all it takes to unlock that capacity is a little madness, a wildness in the approach to the problem that others would scoff at.

0:24Liam Cohen is many things, unpredictable, brash, and some would say even a little off his rocker at times.

0:30But without a doubt, he was the key that unlocked this Jacksonville team last season.

0:35Will that continue here? Hines Allen gets to Herbert!

0:38And there's the record for Hines Allen! So now that these Jaguars have found their wild side again, what's next?

0:44Can they ambush the rest of the AFC like they hunted down a division title last year?

0:49Can their fully unlocked potential carry them to the conference championship?

0:53Or further? It's day 20 of the Bootleg Summer Preview Series, and we're going on safari to track down the truth about

1:00this new-look Jacksonville team and their chances in 2026.

1:03Welcome to Bootleg. Welcome to football. Welcome to the Bootleg Football Podcast.

1:06I'm Brett Coleman. That's EJ Snyder. It's Jags Day.

1:09If you guys were paying attention to the Spiro Dina special last season, which is the classic 1 p.m.

1:15AFC South game, you saw a lot of good football for the first time in a while.

1:20Not just because the Jags were on TV, but also the Colts were pretty good in the first half of the year.

1:27The Texans, starting in week four, were a pretty good team.

1:31It was an overall very good division. And ultimately, this Jags team won that division and were one of the best teams in the conference.

1:39Now, not everything went according to plan. They did have to make some significant changes around the week 11 mark or so.

1:45But as far as in-season adjustments go and, you know, kind of going from good to great as the season goes on,

1:52very few examples I think are better than the 2025 Jags of that.

1:56They identified the problems that were holding them back and then fixed those problems.

2:01And by the time we got to the playoffs, they were a really, really dangerous team.

2:06Yeah, we talked about the Jags last summer in this series in that way of, in a way that we often do about teams.

2:13If they hit all the green lights, they could be this.

2:17We didn't think that they were going to be a bad team.

2:20There were definitely people that were worried about their prospects under Liam Cohen, whether or not the defense under Campanelli was going to take a step.

2:29All of those things. They pretty much hit all those green lights, I would say, to an even greater extent than even

2:35our most optimistic take was going to have. But we were not, we were bullish on the Jags in this series last summer.

2:43And then they went out and ripped off 13 games.

2:46And that was even better, I think, than we thought.

2:49So I'm extremely excited about today because we get to look at a team that, like you said, didn't necessarily do everything right.

2:56They too had their share of unfortunate circumstances and they still won 13 games.

3:01So what's the ceiling? And that's fascinating to talk about.

3:04And there's a lot of other interesting aspects we're going to have to talk about.

3:08We're going to have to talk about the draft and their GM, who takes a very different tack than a lot of

3:15his peers in the NFL and what we think of that.

3:19And will that catch up with them? You know, what the coaching did right, what the coaching didn't do right.

3:25So I think it's going to be a long show today, but I'm actually really looking forward to that because we get to dig into a team.

3:33It's the beauty of summer series. We get to pull back all the layers and say, this is amazing.

3:39This went better than expected. This, they could still work on this.

3:43And they won the division last year. What's their ceiling look like this year?

3:47And they were just a really fascinating journey to watch, right?

3:51Because week five or six, you know, they were damn near setting franchise records for a number of turnovers in the first third of the season.

3:59I think they had like 14 turnovers in five games, which is crazy.

4:03They were, you know, a four and one start, I think it was off the top of my head.

4:09And they looked like they were going to be one of the powers in the AFC.

4:14And if you checked under the hood, we actually did shows on this at the time.

4:19If you checked under the hood, they were not an efficient football team.

4:23Like dare I say, they were kind of mid in a lot of ways.

4:28They got by because their defense was forcing a lot of turnovers and their offense had the most possessions per game at the time.

4:35So they were not an efficient offense, but they would win just by sheer volume of getting these extra possessions.

4:41And so at the time we were like, Hey, if they run into a team that is not going to a turn

4:48the ball over a lot to them and B has a defense that can punish an inefficient offense, they were going to be in trouble.

4:56And then the Seattle and the Rams games happened.

4:59We're like, there it is. Like every problem this team had in the first five, six weeks, even though they were winning

5:06games, every problem showed up right then and there.

5:08And they had to do a lot of soul searching, right?

5:12Right. This was a team that was leading the NFL in drops, which kind of a normal thing for Jags teams in

5:19recent years, unfortunately, but you know, they were dropping the ball a lot.

5:23Trevor was, you know, he was kind of all over the place as far as his ball placement.

5:29You know, they had an efficient run game. They just kind of refused to run the ball.

5:34They were very screen heavy in the first half of the year.

5:38Just a lot of it was again, I don't want to say smoke and mirrors, but they just weren't an efficient team.

5:44And if they were going to go, you know, to the destination they wanted to, which was the Superbowl.

5:50When you start off that hot, it's like, okay, now first seeds in play.

5:55And you know, if you can get that Superbowl's in play, like they were thinking like, why not us?

6:01You can't make it that far unless you really, really become more efficient because as the year goes on, there's going to be less possessions per game.

6:09So you have to maximize those fewer possessions. And the switch that they made around week 11, right?

6:15That was post Jacoby Myers trade. A couple of weeks after that, you move Colvan Lannan in the left tackle, you know,

6:22the defense, they did the Tyson Campbell trade, which I didn't agree with at the time.

6:27And I still don't agree with, but like they, they made it work.

6:31They were dealing with injuries in the defensive line, but particularly the offense that switch to becoming like Jacoby Myers centric and Parker Washington centric.

6:39And then having Colvin land in that left tackle, they became a different football team.

6:43The play calling was different. The execution was different and you know, not out of nowhere, but very quickly, they became the

6:50team that I think I wanted them to be, which was somebody who could, you know, if you give them 10 possessions

6:57in a football game, they can score on five of them.

7:00They don't need 13 possessions to do that. And if you can score on five out of 10 possessions, you can win the whole damn thing.

7:09So I admire Liam Cohen for doing that, for making that kind of mid season switch and realizing what wasn't working.

7:15And we'll kind of go through a lot of those things today.

7:19But having the balls to do that, to make these adjustments mid season, a lot of coaches don't.

7:25And that's why some teams go from bad to horrible.

7:28This team went from good to top six in the entire league, you know, by the end of the regular season, which I think is really commendable.

7:36It is. And a couple of things about that, you mentioned the two games that they really ran into it were the Rams and the Seahawks.

7:44And if we're looking at Super Bowl favorites going into 2026, who are they?

7:49They're the Rams and the Seahawks. So it was a good litmus test to say, hey, if we want to play with

7:56the best teams in the league, which those teams were already, what do we need to do?

8:01Because this version of ourselves that we were as we're getting used to it.

8:05And that's sort of the second point is when head coaches take over, they have this familiarization period where they're learning what their players do, what communication works.

8:14Mike McDonald had it right. He had five or six weeks where everybody went, oh, maybe he's not the savior that was billed.

8:21And he just went, look, I need a middle linebacker.

8:24He went out and got Ernest Jones. And then the Seahawks started their role that eventually a season and a half later

8:31ended up with them in the Super Bowl. Ben Johnson did the same thing in Chicago.

8:36Chicago, the offense did not look together and of a piece for the first five or six weeks.

8:42They stumbled and people said, oh, he's not the savior.

8:45We live in a right now time where everybody wants to hit the microwave button and have dinner 30 seconds later.

8:52Liam Cohen was the same way. He was getting it done.

8:55The record looked good. But we said on bootleg like, ah, screens aren't going to get you to the promised land and

9:02they're still running a lot of them. What do they need to do?

9:06And to their credit, to your point, they made the shift to their best life.

9:11They figured out what those things were. And the great coaches do that.

9:15McDonald did it in Seattle. Ben Johnson did it in Chicago and Liam Cohen did it in Jacksonville.

9:20And what you saw at the end of the season was a direct result of that.

9:25And I think that's probably the best news for Jags fans going into 2026.

9:30I mean, they went five and oh in their last five.

9:33I don't know if we've done a team on summer series so far this year that that maybe the Patriots were the only other one.

9:41Yeah. That won five straight. We have. So let's talk about that overall record.

9:45We've referenced it a couple of times already. 13 and four.

9:49That was good enough for first in this division.

9:52Home record of seven and two. They were absolute killers in their own building.

9:56And on the road, not much worse, six and two.

9:59So like you said, over the last five games, five and oh, and there have been a few teams we've done on summer series, but not very many.

10:08And those are teams that are on a roll and definitely sort of hitting on all cylinders going into the playoffs when you really want to be.

10:16And the Jags were one of them. And it brings me to my point about Liam Cohen, like as much credit as

10:23Ben Johnson gets for taking a moribund offensive franchise in the bears and turning them into a top 10 NFL offense inside of one season.

10:31Liam Cohen deserves just as much credit. The Jags have been a better offense more recently than the bears have been, but they have not been top five.

10:40And this was a top five offense. We're going to talk about that as we get into our effectiveness summary, but I

10:47don't think Liam Cohen gets his due. I have my theories about why that is his arrival to the franchise was, let's just say muddy at best.

10:55He likes, he's a very opinionated coach. He's going to say what he says to the press and you know, people have

11:02differing opinions of him, but the NFL is a meritocracy at the end of the day.

11:07It's about results. It's about wins and losses. And if you look at what Liam did from the beginning, from the time

11:14he took over the Jags until the end of the season, he deserves every bit as much credit as Ben Johnson gets

11:21as a transformational leader who took largely the same cast.

11:24We're not talking about a new quarterback or a new star wide receiver or anything else and turn them into the best

11:31version of themselves by the end of the season.

11:34That's what great coaches do. So Liam Cohen definitely, you know, deserves a shout out for that.

11:39We'll talk about some of the numbers that they put up to create that 13-4 record.

11:44Effectiveness summary for us is something that ends up in a number called bootleg power score, but we take six numbers to get there.

11:51EPA per play for passing and rushing on the offensive side, the defensive version of the same equivalence, and then points scored and points allowed.

11:59We assign them their league rank and all those six categories, add them up, divide by six, that gives us a raw score.

12:06And then we stack the raw scores. We have some tiebreakers, which are just basically overall wins and then wins in division.

12:13And we say, where did they rank in the league?

12:16How good were they at football overall? So spoiler alert, Jags fans, you already know this.

12:22A lot of teams want us to rush through this portion because they don't want to relive the past atrocities.

12:28You probably want us to slow down and smell the roses here because this is a team that had a lot of

12:35single digit ranks in their power score. Passing EPA per play was 12th.

12:39Rushing EPA per play, also 12th. So tickling top 10 for both, but that kind of balance on offense will take you places in the NFL.

12:47Against the pass, this was the third best defense in the league as far as EPA per play goes.

12:53They were number three overall, a top five pass defense.

12:56That is tremendous because if you can basically shut off the first punch, which is the pass for most opposing teams, you're

13:03putting yourself in a really good spot. Some teams are really good at that top five or top 10 against the pass,

13:10and then they fall off deeply against the run.

13:13They still get by on that, but that was not the case for these cats.

13:1712th against the run. So third against the pass, 12th against the run, and then points scored.

13:23They were sixth points allowed. They were a fantastic scoring defense at eight.

13:27So we have three out of these six ranks are single digit ranks.

13:31You're going to end up with a really good power score if that's the case.

13:35Lower is better just like golf. If you add up those six numbers, divide by six, you get a raw score of 8.83.

13:43That made the Jags the fourth most powerful team in the NFL last year, which is surprising, I think, if you followed

13:49this series for a while, but not surprising again if you watch the product that was on the field in Jacksonville at the end of the season.

13:58They very much looked like a Final Four team.

14:01They didn't necessarily end up there, but the football they were putting on tape for the last four to five weeks was

14:08of that caliber, and this ranking wouldn't be surprising if you're one of those rare people that watches Jags all 22.

14:14It was right there for the taking. They could have.

14:17I think that was really what stung Jags fans last year.

14:21They knew how good they were towards the end of the year, and they knew, okay, no Ravens, no Chiefs.

14:27Right. Now's the time. Exactly. Now's the time. Right.

14:30Right. And when you look at who they lost in free agency because they were kind of getting up against it a

14:37little bit cap-wise, a lot of Jags fans were like, ah, shit, we blew our window.

14:42Right. They immediately went back to 2017 in their heads.

14:45Right. When they make it to the conference championship game.

14:48One and done. And yeah, that was it. Right.

14:51That was the shot. And I think a lot of them were worried like, oh my God, was that our shot?

14:57Like we had it. We absolutely had it. Two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL were not in the playoffs.

15:04And our biggest hurdle other than Buffalo was Bo Nix and a Patriots team that didn't have a left tackle and they had a young quarterback.

15:12And obviously we saw with the Patriots, you know, when they ran into a buzzsaw in Seattle, it didn't go super well.

15:19I think it's fair to argue that, okay, maybe the Jags that we saw towards the end of the year probably would

15:26have matched up better against Seattle than they did mid-season.

15:29Right. When they lost handily, it was a different Jags team by the time we got to the end of the season.

15:36You could argue that if you swap out Jacksonville for New England in that game, they make it a closer game.

15:42And so a lot of Jags fans are like, fuck, like that was it.

15:47I'm not entirely convinced that's true. No. Because if you're looking at the core that remains.

15:52Now, I do think they are going to lose more games this year.

15:56I want to put that on the table right now.

15:59But if you're looking at the core, you have a good coach in Liam Cohen.

16:04You have a good quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I still, you know, pick pick nits with him all the time when it comes to ball placement.

16:12But he's a good quarterback. Right. We know that.

16:15You have weapons out the wazoo. There's four number one receivers essentially.

16:18But like, actually, it's not like a Green Bay argument.

16:21It's like, actually, you have four guys who could argue we're the number one receiver here.

16:26It's just they all play very different roles. You have a run game that can be highly explosive with Basial Basial Tootin.

16:33You have a tight end that we like. They found their left tackle in Colvan Lannan.

16:38You got two young guards that aren't even starting that are really talented that we like.

16:43And you have a defense that is rebuilding, but not completely bereft of pieces.

16:48Why is it over after a year? Like, I don't necessarily agree with the Jags fans that immediately retreated into that hole.

16:55And maybe that was the trauma talking. But I don't agree that this team is completely out of it.

17:01When really the main things that matter, which are coach, quarterback, offensive line, weapons, offensively speaking, they're all still there.

17:07And defense has its issues, and we'll get to those.

17:10But I think it'd still be an average defense and be just fine, even if there's turnover regression.

17:16I do not believe that this is a 2017 into 2018-2019 situation.

17:19A lot of what remains is sustainable. And even if there is a down year this year, just because of schedule and

17:26who they're playing, and okay, there is some roster questions that we have elsewhere.

17:31But like, I don't know. I feel like by December, we're going to be back to talking about this team of like,

17:38oh, could they go on a run? One quick break, then we're right back to the show.

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19:34I don't think I believe in regression for this team actually much at all because year two of the offense under Liam Cohen should be better.

19:42You have Trevor and all the pieces basically outside of running back, like the offensive line, the tight end, all three top

19:49receiving threats, and the quarterback are all in the second year of understanding, oh, this is what he likes.

19:55This is the way he needs to call it.

19:57This is what he wants me to see. And you can argue it's a downgrade at running back, but it's not a huge one.

20:05It might even add to some of their explosive numbers.

20:08So we'll see that in terms of the offense, it feels very solid in terms of the defense.

20:14Like I don't love their linebacking core, but again, on the defensive line, all their starters are back and they have some very good ones.

20:21They have some high powered edge threats. They're secondary.

20:24There are questions, but you go back to the coaching.

20:27And Campanelli definitely had a handle on these guys and knew when to flip the right switches to make them work in certain situations.

20:35So is the defense going to be a little bit worse?

20:38Yeah, but we talked about that going through the effectiveness summary.

20:42It doesn't need to be as good as it was for them to be competitive.

20:46And if the offense is even better than it was down the stretch last year, which I don't think is a stretch,

20:53I think this team could actually win an extra game this year.

20:57Now, will they? I don't know. It's the NFL is tough year to year.

21:01Is the possibility there? Yes, absolutely. So in terms of regression, you know, if you're talking about regression and doing the chicken

21:08little skies falling thing, it's a Jags fan and saying, oh, we're going back to single digit wins because we had our window and we blew it.

21:17I got to say strongly, I disagree with what's in place on the coaching side and really the roster.

21:23This team is going to be as good. Will they win the same number of games?

21:28Maybe a game less, maybe a game more. Yeah, but they're in the same window.

21:32We are going to be talking about them late in the year.

21:36And I believe that they're probably a shoe in for the playoffs.

21:40I think things would have to go terribly wrong for this team to miss the playoffs.

21:45You know, we joke about the four wide receiver one thing, but that actually was asked in a question to us.

21:52We do patron notes and patron questions for each one of these episodes.

21:56And the one that we chose for this one comes from Kai, who said, my question as a Jags fan, who is

22:03the wide receiver one in this offense under Liam Cohen?

22:06Is it Parker Washington? Is it BTJ? Jacoby Myers?

22:08Assuming Hunter plays more defensive snaps because their secondary was trash, which yes, Travis will be mainlining at corner this year.

22:15You don't want to see what happens when he's not starting at corner for this team.

22:20I'll say that much. Like they need him at corner more than they need him at receiver.

22:25So he's not going to be the number one.

22:28He could still very easily be a key package player for them on offense, right?

22:33You bring him in in two minute, you bring him in the red zone, like his ability to go up and get it as a receiver.

22:41Like they desperately need that because of some of the issues they had with the deep all BTJ last year, which we'll get into.

22:48So, you know, if he's our most reliable, like run a go route and go win the 50, 50 guy, they still do need that.

22:56Remember the back half of the year, this team was number one in terms of deep, deep attempt percentage.

23:02So they want to be able to go deep right now.

23:06Travis is, is the most proven guy to do that outside the numbers, even though, you know, Parker is really good at doing it inside the numbers.

23:14So he will be a component there. But as far as who the number one is, you could argue it's Parker Washington.

23:21If you're looking at the numbers in the back half of the year, which of course I have, I'm going to start

23:28off this diatribe by throwing a couple of passing maps on screen for you here.

23:33So the first map, this is Trevor targeting BTJ specifically like only him.

23:37And you can see there's a lot of yellow, which is the color for incompletions here.

23:42There's a lot of yellow in the intermediate and deep, especially to the left, which is where BTJ lined up most of the time.

23:49All of these are go balls that fell incomplete.

23:52His total stats when targeting BTJ, 54.5% completions, 700 yards, two touchdowns, also had a pick, passer rating 83.9.

23:58You compare that to this passing map. This is the passing map combined to Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers, where he completed

24:0568% of his passes for 1,330 yards, eight touchdowns, five picks.

24:08But again, because he threw so many touchdowns, passer rating of 100, which is pretty good.

24:13But, and, you know, specifically, especially if we're looking at week 11 on when this team was, you know, top 10, top

24:2011 in EPA per play, success rate, all that.

24:23If you're looking just at deep targets, they had 44 deep targets in that stretch and 20 deep catches.

24:29BTJ only had three of them out of these 20 deep completions.

24:33Parker Washington tripled him by himself. Jacobi and Parker also combined at 64% for contested catch rate, which is absurdly high.

24:39Like a really, really, really good one is 50%.

24:42The elite guys are 55. If you have two guys combining for 64%, which at one point, Jacobi was like in the

24:4980s in the first few games he was there.

24:52But still, over the course of a seven or eight game sample size, your top two guys are at 64%.

24:58That lets Trevor get away with a lot, right?

25:01Because he has receivers that can go up there and just make him right.

25:05And so if you're looking at Parker being their most productive deep threat, both of these guys being excellent in contested catch

25:12situations, and then just the sheer inefficiency throwing to BTJ, especially down the field, which is what they drafted him to be, which was their downfield threat.

25:21I would say Parker was the one. And Jacobi was the very, very, very high end too.

25:26And BTJ was the fuck it, maybe this works number three, right?

25:30Especially after Travis got hurt because he wasn't out there to be the number three.

25:34And quite frankly, it could be that way this season as well.

25:38And we'll get into the reasons why BTJ and Trevor couldn't connect.

25:42I did a lot of tape study on that, but as far as where it stands right now, I would say Parker won, Jacobi two, BTJ three.

25:50I think you're right. And again, I want to focus on that period where they were their best selves, where the Jags

25:57had ascended to being the most efficient version. And if you watched the games down the stretch, Parker was my unquestioned number one.

26:04And this is where I get to jump on my soapbox and say Parker Washington in that stretch, in the back, we'll

26:11say third of the season last year, was playing at such a high level and had such a large impact on his team relative to the overall offense.

26:20He doesn't get credit for that. Part of it's name recognition.

26:23Part of it's that he hasn't done it for very long.

26:27That was his first true stretch. I would say running an offense and he gets not enough love.

26:33I'm going to say he is an underappreciated wide receiver for that stretch.

26:37And I know it's the NFL. I know the tide turns really quickly and it's what have you done for me lately?

26:43And then on the flip side of that coin, but how long have you done it for?

26:49And Parker Washington sample size is very small. I get it.

26:52If you watch that stretch, it wasn't a question for me.

26:56Who they went to when they needed a catch.

26:58Jacoby coming over in the trade was the piece this wide receiving core needed without question.

27:03What it did was put all the receivers in the correct roles.

27:07And we talk many times often on this podcast about just that.

27:11It was absolutely an unlock for the offense. But what it unlocked was Parker Washington getting free for all these opportunities.

27:18Trevor growing in his trust of him and Liam as well as a play caller and saying, if we need anything, not just the down the field stuff.

27:26The fact that he did the down the field stuff at such a high rate.

27:31Again, sort of when you look at his physical profile, you go, well, should he be that good?

27:37Well, the answer is he is that good down the field.

27:40There was some of that in his tape in college that both of us talk about pre-draft.

27:45But all over the field, the Jags relied on Parker when they needed a catch.

27:50Much like the 49ers with Juwan Jennings. It was third and Juwan, right?

27:54But it wasn't just third down. It was first down.

27:57It was second down. It was deep down the field.

28:00It was short. It was intermediate between the numbers outside.

28:04They just went to Parker Washington and he delivered over and over again.

28:08And to me, I don't really care what your designation is.

28:11I don't think the one has to be the X, right?

28:15If you're the guy that gets the primary looks in an offense and the offense goes to when the chips are down, you're the number one.

28:23And for that best stretch of the Jags, it was Parker Washington without question.

28:27I do want to dive into the BTJ problems, right?

28:30Because right now everybody just talks about, okay, there were drops.

28:34Or, you know, he shied away from contact over the middle of the field.

28:38It wasn't just that, right? Again, if we go back to that passing map, that cluster of incompletions deep into the left,

28:45which is what they drafted him to do. I watched every single 20 plus yard target to BTJ.

28:50Actually, 15 plus yard targets to BTJ. There was a lot of them.

28:55But I wanted to see, okay, what were, you know, what did the balls that were completed have in common?

29:01And what did the balls that were incomplete have in common?

29:04Like, what were the root issues here? Was it a BTJ problem?

29:08Was it a Trevor problem? Was it both? And I came away thinking both, quite honestly.

29:13And I think, you know, if there's no other result from this podcast, I want to set straight, you know, what the BTJ issues actually were.

29:21Both his side and Trevor's side. So, again, there's going to be a lot of tape here.

29:26If you're watching the YouTube version, enjoy. If you're watching the audio only version, maybe switch over to the video version for

29:33this because there will be examples on screen. But I'm going to start off here with the Cincinnati game, which is where the problems really got national attention.

29:42And especially in the first four or five weeks, which the Cincinnati game was in, I think it was week two.

29:49He had this really kind of loosey-goosey release style.

29:51You could tell he watched a lot of Devontae growing up.

29:55He would do these kind of slow plays off the line.

29:58He would try to lull the corner into a false sense of security and then take off.

30:04The problem is, if you're not on the same page with your quarterback and you're slow playing that release, and that quarterback

30:11needs you to go, like right now. He needs you to get down the field because he's trying to read the corner.

30:17He's trying to see, is the corner playing low shoulder or high shoulder?

30:22Because that's going to determine where the ball goes.

30:24If he's playing low shoulder, you know, some people call it trail technique, but to me, trail technique is something different.

30:31Again, we'll get into that a different day. But if he is, you know, playing behind your inside shoulder rather than on

30:38top of you, if he's not playing you top down, then he's going to leave that ball deep.

30:43Because you're going to have space to run under it.

30:47You're not going to have somebody in between you and the ball.

30:50But if he is playing top down on you, which most press corners these days, they play top down.

30:56Well, now he's going to throw a back shoulder.

30:59But if you're slow playing the release and you're not getting out of there, Trevor can't read what the DB is doing.

31:06And so by the time he has to get rid of the ball, you know, the receiver could be running deep when

31:13Trevor's trying to throw a back shoulder or Trevor's trying to throw a back shoulder and the receivers, you know, going deep.

31:20Like that's where these communication issues arise. You have to get off the line unless you're Devante and Aaron because Devante and Aaron could figure it out.

31:28Right. But clearly these two guys were not on the same page.

31:32And so when you compound that with sometimes as a route runner, he would play with pace.

31:37Again, Devante and Aaron would do that all the time.

31:40You either ramp up speed or you slow down mid route.

31:44You're kind of toying with DBs in the middle of the route.

31:48It's all fine and dandy. But if the quarterback doesn't know you're going to do that, you can't ramp down.

31:54You got to go. And we saw that in the Cincinnati game as well.

31:58So I think as we as we progressed in the season, they got more on the same page in terms of just, hey, man, get the fuck downfield.

32:07Like I need you to be in the spot that you need to be in.

32:12And we saw that in the very next week against Houston.

32:15It's him and Stingley. Right. And BTJ just goes.

32:18He just does a speed release and he wins.

32:21Trevor sees his hip to hip. Let's it go.

32:24Ball's perfectly placed. He goes up. He extends. There was the other issue.

32:28The drops couldn't hang on to it. So that's that was another point of consternation.

32:32A couple weeks later, he goes back to him again.

32:35That big catch in the KC game. OK, we're on the right track here.

32:40Everything's going well. But in comes Trevor's problems. Again, he was part of this too.

32:45We'll look at the Titans game week 13. The corner is pressing him with outside leverage here.

32:50Like he is basically telling BTJ, you are not getting outside.

32:53You're in a tighter split. I'm anticipating a mandatory outside release go.

32:57Like you are not getting outside of me. And so when he's getting walled off, you know, BTJ, he's expecting the back

33:04shoulder fade because he's playing him top down. It's the only throw that's available.

33:08DB is playing good technique. And quite frankly, Thomas just didn't have a shot on this route.

33:14Trevor still throws it deep. He's not reading it correctly based on the corner's leverage.

33:18There was no reason to try to throw this one deep.

33:22It was not going to happen. So that again, it goes down as an incompletion to Thomas, but it wasn't his fault.

33:29Trevor's got to read it better. Colts game week 14.

33:32Why are we throwing fades with such a flat trajectory?

33:35You have to give your receiver a shot to get the ball.

33:39I understand there was pressure in his face. You're paid $50 million.

33:42Throw a good ball. You cannot leave these fades so flat.

33:46We saw it later in the same game when he wasn't pressured.

33:50He threw it with the right trajectory and shocker.

33:52It was caught explosive game on a slot fade.

33:55So again, part of this was Trevor in terms of ball placement, in terms of misreading things.

34:01It wasn't just BTJ. We saw it again in the Jets game.

34:04Double move. Thomas is gone. Like this is going to be a touchdown.

34:08They were already blowing him out, but still like this was going to be a touchdown.

34:13Trevor is not under pressure. Leaves the ball short.

34:16And I don't know if this, if he was just anticipating something different.

34:20I have no idea. But like Thomas is gone.

34:23You can see it on tape and he makes him stop mid route and wait for the ball.

34:29Turns a short touchdown into, you know, just an explosive game.

34:32Again, that's not on Thomas. That's on Trevor. You got to get the ball down the field.

34:37And then, of course, later in that same game, Trevor does drop it in the bucket and BTJ drops it.

34:44So it wasn't, it wasn't just Trevor either. Thomas also had his own problem.

34:48But you can see over the course of the season, I don't know how many plays that was in a row.

34:55So it was this back and forth tug of war of if it's not one of their problems, it's the other one.

35:02And they, to me, like their number one goal this offseason was cutting all that shit out.

35:07Right. As far as not being on the same page of reading DBs in terms of, you know, having flat trajectory in terms of dropping the ball.

35:15Like there were so many opportunities for these guys to break games wide open.

35:20And it was either one or the other. Never just one.

35:23It was both throughout the entire season. So I just want to set the record straight.

35:28It wasn't just Thomas. It was Trevor too. And while, while I do acknowledge Trevor, good quarterback, we cannot sit here and

35:35pretend that we're not seeing what we're seeing on film.

35:38Which is missed opportunities from both directions. And yet, they still won 13 games.

35:43I know. That's the thing. Like this team had so many problems.

35:46Like their pass rush, their interior pass rush was Bengals status.

35:50That's how bad they were. And they were still a top 10 defense.

35:54If you're talking about, oh God. If you're talking about meat left on the bone.

35:58Again, you mentioned a defensive issue and many offensive issues.

36:02One in particular, which was this chemistry. And we talk about chemistry is between quarterbacks and wide receivers all the time.

36:08I think less so. We talk about it between offensive lines and running backs.

36:13You know, again, reading it the same way. Blocking it.

36:16Anticipating what's going to open. What's not. It's all.

36:19It all needs to be done. And when it doesn't, it looks like it did last year.

36:24Early in the season for the Jags, specifically between Trevor and BTJ.

36:28I thought, well, yeah, but I thought, and those two thoughts weren't the same.

36:32The ball sails five yards over your head. And it's like, why did he stop?

36:37Well, he was cutting it back based on leverage.

36:39The quarterback saw it differently. By the time he let it go, he thought it was a go.

36:45It wasn't. All those things look terrible on film.

36:48And yes, it should be priority number one to say, look, let's they should be doing if they're not the exact same

36:55thing that you did, which is go back through every single one of those as painful as it is and say, OK, who's miss mine?

37:03Yours, both of ours, because they're also plays where it was both of their misses.

37:07And those look extremely bad. Like those are the ones where it literally sails into a zip code where there's no receiver and people go, what was that?

37:16And the answer is miscommunication that happened early on.

37:19And it's, you know, an early developing route that you have to throw because it takes a while to get there.

37:25If they can clean all that up, that's why I don't think regression is necessarily a real thing.

37:31I imagine that issue will be slightly better along with every other issue.

37:35The ones we talked about run blocking angles, timing.

37:38Liam Cohen is a play caller, right? He had his struggles.

37:41It's not always just the guys executing on the field.

37:45Often that's what we see and who we blame.

37:47But there were times early in the season, especially when he was calling so many screens that it wasn't the right call at the right time.

37:56And he figured that out, right? So this team is still figuring it out.

38:00We talk about players all the time that aren't near their ceiling.

38:04The Jags offense, I don't think, is particularly close to their ceiling for all the reasons you just laid out.

38:10If they get closer to that ceiling, it's really scary for the rest of the AFC.

38:15Yeah, you mentioned the screen rate. Weeks 1 through 10, they were 4th and early down screens.

38:20They kind of used that as a supplement to the run game.

38:24And then they realized, like, oh, this actually sucks a lot.

38:27We're not going to do this anymore. They went from 4th to 26th.

38:31Which, again, credit to Liam for just being like, we're actually terrible at this.

38:36Let's not do that anymore. We'll just run the ball like a normal football team.

38:41Yeah, and that's a good thing. In terms of the things that they used to get out of those situations when all

38:47these things weren't working, because we've talked about it before, in terms of efficiency and success rate and everything else.

38:54When you have those misses like they did to BTJ, those are drive killers.

38:58And we saw that in the early going of the season.

39:02They were not as efficient in terms of success rate, yet they were still winning games.

39:07But we were like, that's why it seems a little precarious.

39:10This stool might not have all its legs in place.

39:13The reason they got out of a lot of those situations, their get-out-of-jail-free card, if you want to call it that, was A-Chan.

39:20He was basically just outside the top 10 in first downs overall for running backs.

39:25And that's when you combine rushing and receiving. He had 177 of them.

39:29So when it didn't work, they were like, hey, buddy, can you bail us out?

39:34And he did. We'll have to see if Tootin is as good at that.

39:38That's one of the sort of question marks about this offense.

39:42Maybe the only question mark is everything else. The offensive line, the tight ends, the wide receiving core, the quarterback, the coaching, the play callers.

39:49They're all pretty much the same. The one difference is the running back.

39:53And he was kind of a big difference because he was kind of their flex tape for that offense when things didn't go well in early downs.

40:02I think the other main question is like, can Colvin Landon do it again?

40:06Yeah. Again, small sample size we talked about with Parker Washington.

40:10It's the same thing for Cole. I mean, they literally went from 29th to I think 7th.

40:15Yeah. In pressure rate allowed on true dropbacks as soon as it was week 11 on.

40:20I think he started week 13. But that's crazy.

40:23An in-season turnaround at offensive line just because you realize like, oh, we actually have a starting left tackle that we weren't playing.

40:30What could the issue possibly be? Oh, maybe that?

40:33Yeah. That. Then he got extended this offseason. It was like very quiet.

40:37It was very quiet nationally. Like, oh, now we give a little bit of money to Colvin Landon.

40:43It's like, that's a fucking steal. Because if you have a starting left tackle for 11 million, 10 million a year, you know, before incentives, that's crazy.

40:51Yeah, I re-signed Van Landon, 17, but still with starting left tackle money, like 17 is the Jags got in at the

40:58right time in the market because if he can repeat it, and that's what they're betting on, that will look like one

41:05of the best values at left tackle in the NFL.

41:08Not saying the best player. I'm saying best value.

41:11If he hit the open market, he would have got more.

41:14I'll just say that. With the tape. I mean, he averaged 1.3 pressures allowed per game.

41:191.3 is like Tristan Wirfs. Yeah. It's absurd. I bet that would have been $7 to $8 million higher on the open market.

41:26I mean. Per season. Yeah. Yeah. No, of course.

41:29Because, I mean, how many teams are dying for a left tackle right now?

41:34Yeah. A third of the league, I would say.

41:36Okay. As far as defense, I do want to give Anthony Cappanelli his flowers.

41:41You know, he kind of mixed influences here on the back end because he spent time as Vic Fangio's linebacker coach.

41:47Then he worked under Jeff Halfley. And you can see both of their identities a little bit in how this defense was structured.

41:55You know, everybody's most common coverage in the league is cover three.

41:58There's very few teams, if any, that I think would not have cover three as far as their most called coverage.

42:05The world runs on cover three. But you see the differing identities around the NFL in terms of, okay, but what's the second coverage that they call?

42:13And for Cappanelli, it was very Vic Fangio-ish, right?

42:16It was cover six and it was cover eight.

42:19You know, either quarter, quarter, half or half, quarter, quarter.

42:22So we're playing quarters on one side, cover two on the other.

42:26That was their second most common coverage. And they actually ran that coverage at an even higher rate than Vic did with the Eagles, which is nuts.

42:34He very, very much loves that. But the difference between him and Vic is he still has some of that Jeff Halfley DNA in him.

42:42And we know that Jeff Halfley loves cover two.

42:45And he ran cover two about 10% of the time, which doesn't sound like a lot.

42:50But compared to Vic Fangio, that's a ton. Vic's 32nd in cover two.

42:54He hates cover two. Doesn't call it ever. And again, it was another one of these, like, we're going to get into

43:01cover two in funky kind of ways. You know, just like Jeff Halfley.

43:05As far as the pass rush in front of that coverage structure, again, this team got a lot of turnovers because they

43:12played so much zone coverage, about 90 to 95%.

43:15But the pass rush in front of them is the main thing I want to talk about.

43:20Because it was both great and horrible at the same time, right?

43:24If we're looking at the edges, especially pre-injury Trayvon Walker, him and Josh Hines Allen together, one of the best edge duos in the NFL.

43:32They're awesome. And Walker, I would say, has really blossomed into being a good NFL player.

43:37You know, that pick still gets hate because of who went second.

43:40But if we're just looking at Trayvon in a vacuum, like, it's a good pick.

43:45He worked out. He's a good player. The interior, though, is a huge issue.

43:49Like I said, they were 31st in pressure rate among all defensive tackle groups in the NFL.

43:55They were tied with the Bengals. The only team that was lower than them was the Niners.

44:00And they were another one of these teams who, as an entire defensive tackle room, were outproduced by Jeffrey Simmons all by himself.

44:07They were not good last year. And it wasn't just because, you know, Eric Armstead hurt his hand.

44:13Like there were three months of football that Eric Armstead played and they were still just as bad.

44:18This team cannot get to the quarterback or even affect the quarterback on the interior.

44:23And that is a big reason why they called so many stunts.

44:27This team loves four-man rushes, as you would expect for somebody, you know, who coached under Vic Fangio.

44:33They love four-man rushes. They were fourth overall in standard four-man rushes.

44:36And they were third overall in stunt rate. The reason why they called so many stunts is because their defensive tackle group was so ass at pass rushing.

44:45It was the only way they were ever going to get any sort of interior disruption is if we just take our

44:52really good edges and we loop them inside or spike them inside and we try to make the guards deal with Hines Allen or Walker.

45:00It was the only way they were ever going to move a quarterback off his spot was using these stunts because their DTs just couldn't do it.

45:08And there were some mixed results on that. But on the snaps where it wasn't Hines Allen or Walker doing the damn

45:15thing all by themselves, this is not a good pass rush.

45:19It really wasn't. So it's I say it's great because it's great when when their two best players are at their best,

45:25but they don't have a third pitch. They have a Batman and a Robin and literally nothing for Alfred like absolutely nobody.

45:32One of the reasons they might have made a trade that we'll talk about in a little bit when we get to the acquired section after the break.

45:41But can I interest you in our lower than possible substantial savior Ruka Rororo?

45:45If we're counting on Ruka Rororo or Albert Regis to save this team, we are in fucking trouble.

45:51Well, OK, maybe the combination of the two can be better again, bar on the ground and they step over it this season than they were last season.

46:00It couldn't be worse. Well, it could be. You could be the Niners.

46:04But other than that, it could not possibly statistically be worse.

46:07Yeah, fair. Hi, alternate timeline. Brett here before we get to all the 2026 stuff.

46:12If you've liked a lot of the data that we brought up so far, we have companion infographics for every single team,

46:19including the one we're talking about today with over 15,000 total data points that we have collected throughout this summer.

46:25Each team gets its own companion infographic, which is roughly about 20 pages long.

46:30It has all the data on this team you can think of, whether it's alignment data, personnel data, cap allocation, coverage data

46:36broken out by down and distance, blitz data. I mean, basically anything you can think of, we've got it.

46:42So if you want access to that, you can find that down at the link in the description below or at the QR code on the screen.

46:51Reminder, we also have bonus episodes that go live every single Friday over on Patreon, recapping every single division.

46:57We're going to pick division winners, MVPs, rookies of the year, all that stuff.

47:01So if you want bonus episodes plus more data than you could probably handle, that is over on the Patreon.

47:07Thank you once again to all of our patrons that have made, honestly, this series possible to make in the first place.

47:14We could not have paid the people who help us make it without your guys' financial support.

47:20So thank you to our patrons. Thank you to all of our executive producers on Patreon.

47:25Their names are on screen right now. They have been OG supporters of us and made so much in our lives possible

47:31while we try to chase this dream. So thank you.

47:35Thank you. Thank you. And with that, let's get back to the show.

47:39All right. Going forward. Everything we're talking about now is 2026.

47:42First half of the show is 2025, which means EJ, we get to talk about your favorite person on the planet.

47:49Shane Waldron. Yeah. For all the things and all the things I love about this team and all the praise I have for it.

47:56Man, when you see a promotion come through in the offseason, sometimes you're just like, I do not see it.

48:02I will pretend that is that is not a real thing.

48:06But let's start at the top with the GM, James Gladstone, wonder kid GM from the lineage of the Rams.

48:12That's where he came from. We'll talk about him in depth actually when we get to the draft section.

48:18So I'm going to head on. Head coach, Liam Cohen.

48:21We've sung his praises throughout the episode. The aforementioned Shane Waldron, assistant head coach and pass game coordinator for this offense.

48:28I'm just going to lean into the fact that Liam is really calling the plays.

48:33And therefore, again, I do not see it as a Shane Waldron PTSD sufferer.

48:37I'm just going to leave it at that. You and JSN together.

48:41Joint PTSD from Shane Waldron. Is this thing live?

48:43Okay. And Caleb. And, well, it's a pretty long list.

48:47I'm not going to lie. Yeah. It seems to be working for now.

48:51Whichever buttons he has been removed from and whichever ones Liam is pressing are working.

48:55So let's just keep the balance that way, Jags.

48:58Offensive coordinator Grant Udinski. Someone we highlighted on this series last year as an up and coming offensive coach.

49:04And sure enough, throughout the coaching, head coaching rounds of hires, he did get interviews.

49:09He ended up choosing to stay in Jacksonville, which I think is a really good call because if this Jags team is

49:16as good as we think they can be on offense this year, he gets to write his own ticket to a much

49:23better number after the end of next season. So, again, gets to stay in his comfort zone, work within a system that's

49:29obviously working for him and sort of better his star in that coaching rounds.

49:34Good to get interviews. Good to get your name out in that process.

49:38But I think a wise choice to stay in Jacksonville at the end of the day.

49:43Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanelli. Again, I think did a fantastic job.

49:46It might be even a little bit overshadowed because of what Liam did with the offense, but it shouldn't be understated.

49:53Those defensive ranks, he found the right cords to hit with these players and they got the most out of them.

49:59Do they have their issues with the rosters, inefficiencies?

50:02They do. So, interior defensive pass rush, we just talked about it.

50:06And linebackers, not a unit I love. As we look around the league, which is the real benefit of Summer Series, we

50:13can compare all the rosters to each other. Linebacker does not look great for all the people that are like, well, we

50:20had one and we let him go. Yeah, you couldn't pay him.

50:24I get it. I'm also not going to sugarcoat the fact that what's left in the linebacker room is okay, but not great.

50:31Campanelli did a fantastic job. I'm going to stand for this Jack Kaiser erasure, by the way.

50:36Oh, really? Oh, really? You want to go toe-to-toe over Jack Kaiser?

50:40I know. We disagree on Kaiser. We'll get a chance to talk about Kaiser in a minute.

50:45But special teams coordinator, Heath Farwell. In terms of assistant coaches, I want to give Sean Serrett a shout out as the offensive line coach.

50:53Again, this team's offensive line performed very, very well.

50:56Wide receiver coach, interestingly, is Edgar Bennett. I'm going to say Bears great, Edgar Bennett, just to get at the Packers fans.

51:03But Edgar Bennett was a running back. He was a very good receiving running back, but he was a running back by trade.

51:10Always interesting to me when somebody applied their trade in the NFL at one position and they end up coaching another position in the NFL.

51:18The running backs coach is Chad Morton, another NFL alum and great returner.

51:22Senior defensive assistant is Bill Sheridan. Defensive line coach, Matt Edwards.

51:25Again, defensive line is all-inclusive, so he gets both the bad side of the coin, which is why can't you make the

51:32defensive tackles rush better, along with the edges are great.

51:35Boy, they look really good when they're both firing off.

51:38And the pass rush specialist is Derek LeBlanc. A lot of Boston College on this staff, obviously.

51:44Bill Sheridan actually, I believe, has a BC connection to Campanelli.

51:47Not through Halfley, but through a different generation of BC coaches.

51:51But Giants fans will recognize him. He was Steve Spagnuolo's successor with the Giants defense following that 18-1 upset over the Patriots.

51:57Bill Sheridan took over that Giants defense and called, essentially, Spagg's defense with them for a year.

52:03And then LeBlanc, he actually met Campanelli in Miami under Vic.

52:06They were both Vic's assistants in Miami, so that's the connection there.

52:10All right, let's talk about free agency. Because, good God, you know, some teams are cutting fat this time of year.

52:17Some teams, you know, are really doing addition by subtraction.

52:20Not the Jags. They were up against it financially.

52:22There were players that they wanted to keep that they had absolutely no shot of keeping.

52:27Just because of how expensive they were going to be.

52:31Notably, Devin Lloyd and Travis Achan. Achan, obviously, $12 million with the Saints.

52:35Devin Lloyd, $15 million with the Panthers. They just couldn't afford it.

52:38And, you know, it's unfortunate that their timeline was kind of wonky.

52:42Like, you love it as an organization when you're building a timeline where all of your players are young and cheap together.

52:49And you don't run into this situation where you can't time out the extensions in a way where you can keep everybody at the same.

52:57And, you know, kind of like how the Eagles did where they're just shoving money into future years in order to retain the core.

53:04And they draft well. So all these guys are getting extended with their cheap.

53:09And they have all these long runways. And everybody gets to stay together forever.

53:13And it's super awesome and cool. Jags just didn't have that timeline available to them.

53:18They had no room to do all of the cap fuckery that the Eagles do, unfortunately.

53:23In addition to that, Mason Smith, they traded to the Falcons for Rook Aroro.

53:27Johnny Munt is now with the Eagles. Deami Brown is back with the commanders before.

53:32And then Jags and then commanders again, top of my head.

53:35Correct. Andrew Wingard is with the Cardinals. And DeJuan Smoot, longtime Jag.

53:39He is currently unsigned. So we'll see what happens with that.

53:43Tim Patrick is with the Jets. Still going at 33.

53:46How about that for Tim Patrick? And then Greg Newsom is with the Giants.

53:50So again, they traded Tyson Campbell for a player that they had for 10 weeks?

53:55Yeah. Not great. In terms of the historical tale of the tape on that particular trade, I don't know that the Jags

54:02are going to come out on top. But when you're talking about who they were able to retain and who they weren't,

54:09they are well playing the comp pick strategy here in terms of what they had to let go because of their financial situation.

54:16And when you look at the amount of contracts that they signed, which we'll talk about from the outside in a second,

54:23they're in line for at least a couple of comp picks out of this.

54:27And that is certainly on Gladstone's mind. In terms of the money they spent in-house to re-sign folks, Trayvon Walker, we talked about him earlier.

54:35Well deserving of that extension. A very good NFL player at only 26 years old.

54:40They get him for $27.5 million. Cole Van Lannan, it feels like they took a good gamble at the right time.

54:46Again, small sample size, but if you get a starting left tackle in the NFL at today's race for only $17 million, you're doing tremendous.

54:54Brenton Strange, this is the small soapbox for Brenton Strange.

54:57Brenton Strange, not nationally very well known in the long line of Nittany Lion tight ends who've come out in recent years,

55:04who've been very good and is very good, is underappreciated, I would say underrated, you know, outside of Jaguarsville, where I think

55:11Jags fans do appreciate who Brenton Strange is and what he does for the offense and what he can be.

55:17Again, not a player that's at his ceiling. They signed him for $12 million.

55:21I think a lot of fans from around the NFL who either don't keep up on contracts or just don't follow Jags football went, Brenton Strange, $12 million?

55:30You said you couldn't keep your middle linebacker? But you're paying that guy $12 million, and the answer is yes, very good,

55:37very athletic, young tight end who is still on the ascension.

55:41Monteric Brown they get, played 67% of the snaps for them last year, $10.5 million.

55:45I think both kind of a necessary move and a good one played well in this defense.

55:51It was right in terms of market value, doesn't feel like an overpay or an underpay, very solid player.

55:56So those are the guys that really stick out in this list as, hey, these are cores to a point moving forward,

56:03not necessarily star core players, but guys that work within our system that we're sure about that we're going to re-up because

56:10we believe in that and we think it's money well spent.

56:14If you want to hear how screwed up the tight end market is, I'm just going to run through a couple of these here with you, EJ.

56:22What would you rather have? Brenton Strange at $12 million a year.

56:26Cole Komet at $12.5. I mean, I understand Komet's value in Chicago.

56:30You know my feelings about Cole Komet, but if I was looking at a futures market, like who would I start a team with?

56:37I would take Brenton Strange. Not even a discussion.

56:40Easily. Brenton Strange at $12. Mark Andrews at $13.

56:43Don't. Yeah. That's a what have you done for us previously contract.

56:47Isaiah Likely at $13.3 million. No, thank you. Kyle Pitts at $17.7 million.

56:51Come on. Kyle Pitts stand from early on, so I'm not going to.

56:55Almost $6 million more? I'm not going to play favorites.

56:58I'm going to say Kyle Pitts finally getting his due is good because boy, he didn't earn it for a long time, but he finally did.

57:06So pay the man. And then here's an interesting one.

57:09Because I'm pitting two EJ Snyder favorites against each other.

57:12Of course. Brenton Strange at $12 million. Nice, reasonable, fun $12 million.

57:16Easily approachable. Trey McBride at $19. Oh, McBride. I was wondering if you would waver a little bit.

57:22No. Sorry. Not going to happen. I love Brenton Strange as a value of $12 million.

57:27Let me say that to Jags fans. Like, you got a good one.

57:31Don't worry about the $12 million. He is well worth it in this market and also in this offense.

57:37But Trey McBride, you're not going to budge me off of.

57:40Who got himself in a little hot water this week?

57:43If we're talking about Trey McBride. McBride did? Yeah.

57:46He went on busting with the boys and kind of threw some shade at Arizona fans and had to issue a retraction of, I love our fans.

57:54Our fans are great. Our fans are sticking with us.

57:58We're going to win some games this year. He had to say all the things.

58:02See, Trey, just come on bootleg. We're not going to set you up to fail.

58:07And if you say something dumb, we'll cut it out.

58:10That's right. We'll fix it in post, Trey. Come on on the show.

58:14Or maybe not. I don't know. It's good to get ratings.

58:18As long as they spell your name right. Anyways.

58:20As far as outside acquisitions and what they spent outside money on, Amir Abdullah, still going.

58:2533 years young. Special teams ace, still. Chris Rodriguez Jr.

58:29The other, other, other, other commanders running back for $5 million.

58:32And then Ruka Roro obviously was the other side of the Mason Smith trade.

58:36Does either team win this? I think both players get a fresh start.

58:40And I think that's good. Like, obviously, Mason did not work out for the Jags.

58:45They would not have traded him if they did.

58:48That pick I was more questionable on than the Roro pick for Atlanta.

58:52Atlanta was willing to part with him. Again, the Jags have a desperate need.

58:56If he is better than dead last or almost dead last in the NFL, he'll be an improvement.

59:02So it's an opportunity for him to come into a system.

59:05He doesn't have to be the guy either. Not that he was drafted to be the guy in Atlanta.

59:11He has no pressure. He has two of the best edge rushers in the NFL.

59:16He is going to get single team looks. If he is ever going to win, Jacksonville is a good place for him to do it.

59:24He is also a very mobile defensive tackle. You said they love stunts.

59:28He's good at stunts. He can be either the pick player or the looper.

59:32So I think it's a good situation. Does he make the most of it?

59:37We'll see. But I think both players get a fresh start.

59:40And I think that's good for young players. Being stuck in a system or with coaches that don't believe in you is not good for anybody.

59:48So, you know, is either team going to win?

59:51Probably not outright. I don't think we're going to come away from this two years later and go, Oh my God, this

59:58team absolutely fleeced the other four, either Smith or Roro.

60:01But maybe both of them get a better level fresh start, which I think is worthwhile.

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61:34As we get into the draft, I'd like to propose a toast.

61:38For those of you watching at home who happen to have something poured, I'd like to toast you, James Gladstone, for truly

61:45not giving a shit about what any of us say.

61:48That's right. Like, he does not care. No, the world's...

61:51And again, I disagree with a lot of what he's done, but I appreciate that he just doesn't give a shit.

61:58He's like, nope, I have my vision. If I go down with this ship, I'll go down with this ship, but I

62:05am not going to get fired building a team that I don't believe in.

62:09And there's a lot to respect in that. True.

62:12He came from a fuck them picks culture, and I think he is more...

62:16He has more morphed into with Jacksonville fuck them reviews.

62:19Like, I don't care what people say about my picks.

62:23I believe in them. So we're going to handle the draft a little bit differently.

62:27If you've been watching these episodes all along, typically we go pick by pick, and we will come back and do that.

62:34But what we're going to do is stack 2026 and 2025.

62:38And the reason we're going to do that is when you get a new GM with a team, you start building a profile.

62:45You basically start a folder, right? Or a file.

62:48And say, what does this guy like to do?

62:50Does he want to trade up? Is he aggressive?

62:53Does he go by consensus? Does he not? And there's a lot of talk about consensus in the draft world this season.

63:00And whether consensus is good or bad or what consensus really is.

63:04And consensus, if you're taking enough data sources, like consensus boards, and you have well over 100 big boards, is using the

63:11wisdom of the crowd theory to basically play the averages and come out slightly ahead.

63:15And typically you will. But that doesn't mean for every team that's the right answer.

63:20Every team has their own board. And that was the pushback about consensus is teams know things we don't.

63:26That's true. Going against consensus occasionally because you have a piece of inside information, maybe you have a coach on your staff

63:33that recruited this player coming out into college and his family or there's any number of reasons you might feel like you

63:40know more about this player or feel better about his fit with your organization than other teams do.

63:45Going against consensus for that reason occasionally is how you win.

63:49Let's be honest. That's how you get yourself an advantage in the draft game.

63:53Going against consensus all the freaking time, you'll lose.

63:56Like historically that's been proven. If you are just being an outlier for being an outlier, it's cool to be different when it works.

64:04Again, the NFL is a meritocracy. And if it doesn't work, you run out of talent in the NFL really, really quickly.

64:10Because everybody talks about the hit rate in the draft being somewhere between 30, 35% for a good GM.

64:16Consensus boards may be creeping up another 5% to about 40, 45, depending on how you measure and what your basically analytics for success are.

64:24When you go against consensus all the time, you're going to lose in the long run.

64:29And you're going to run out of players that you need to fill your roster.

64:34Cheap talent, special teamers, like any number. If you miss more often than that, than the 30% that good GMs hit, you

64:41are going to find yourself up against it. You're going to find yourself paying more money in free agency than you want to.

64:48And you're going to find yourself at a talent deficiency where you have to do some things or make some decisions on

64:55your team that you don't want to. So I'll run through 2026 really quickly.

64:59We'll run through 2025 as well. It's 19 total picks.

65:02And then we'll kind of look at like, how do we feel about Gladstone after two full classes now?

65:08So starting off this year, 2026, pick that made a lot of waves.

65:12Round two, pick 56. Nate Borgature, the tight end out of Texas A&M, was really early for a lot of people for multiple reasons.

65:20We'll come back and talk about that. In the third round, they had three picks.

65:25This was the meat of their draft. Albert Regis, we've talked about him, the defensive tackle out of Texas A&M.

65:31Emmanuel Pregnon, a player that I really liked guard out of Oregon, who would have gone earlier if he hadn't had injury concerns.

65:38And Jalen Husky, the safety out of Maryland. In the fourth round, they get Wesley Williams, the edge out of Duke.

65:45Fifth round, another EJ Snyder favorite. Tanner Coelze, the old tight end out of Houston.

65:49Sixth round, two picks, 191 and 203. That's Josh Cameron, the wide receiver from Baylor.

65:54And CJ Williams, the wide receiver from Stanford. In the seventh round, they also had two picks, 233 and 240.

66:00Zach Durfee, the edge out of Washington, who has some interesting stuff that we'll talk about when we go through.

66:07And Parker Hughes, the linebacker out of Middle Tennessee.

66:09We get down to 2025, last year's draft. Obviously, the big trade for Travis Hunter at the top.

66:15Pick number two overall, Caleb Ransaw in the third round.

66:18And then Milam, also in the third round. So cornerback and guard, respectively, Tulane and West Virginia.

66:23Fourth round, two picks, 104 and 107. And Basial Tootin, who's going to be a starter this year.

66:29And, eh, Brett Coleman favorite, Jack Kaiser. Linebacker from Notre Dame.

66:33Might be a starter if he can upseat Ventrell Miller.

66:36He is currently listed as a starter, so you might just get your wish.

66:40Careful what you wish for. Sixth round, 194 and 200.

66:43Jalen McLeod, the linebacker from Aubin. And Rayon Lane, the third, the safety from Navy.

66:48Two seventh round picks. Again, last year, 221 and 236.

66:51Jonah Monheim, the center from USC. And LaQuint Allen, running back from Syracuse, who we got to see at Schrembel and really liked.

66:58So, again, 19 total picks between this year and last year.

67:02How do you feel as you look at both of those draft classes stacked, all 19 of them, about overall impact?

67:08And I'm not talking about starter level impact. I'm talking about as a roster, because you need everything.

67:14And the draft is the main source of getting it in terms of labor.

67:18How do you feel about those 19 picks over the first two years of Gladstone's career?

67:23Well, I would say starter level impact is what we're talking about.

67:27Okay. Because if you have 19 picks, you've got to get some starters out of that.

67:32And the goal is, again, 30% to 35% hit rate of starters.

67:36So, you know, that applied over 19 picks would be five or six starters that you're hoping for, conservatively.

67:42And right now, as it stands, they have two.

67:44We don't know if they're good yet as starters.

67:47Like, we think they could be. They will be.

67:50But we don't know. Maybe three. Again, if Kaiser wins that battle.

67:54And it's possible a couple more become starters down the line.

67:57Like, you know, we think Pregnon could. We think Milam could.

68:01Right now, they're both backups. But as it stands, we are two for 19 officially.

68:05And you have to weigh that against, okay, do they just have a good enough roster where these guys can't crack it?

68:12Not that they're bad, but more so, is the roster so good that they just don't have any opportunities?

68:18Or is it that the players aren't good enough to win the spots?

68:22Again, it's a glass half-full, glass half-empty kind of thing.

68:25Because there's two ways you can look at it.

68:28Either, oh my God, this team is so good that they have 19 picks and only two of them can play.

68:35Or is it, they have 19 picks and only two of them can start.

68:39So, we don't know yet. We don't know what the answer is.

68:43But both of those are very valid ways to look at it.

68:47And when you also throw in, you know, the consensus board stuff.

68:51And, you know, Nate Porkature going in the second round, 56th overall.

68:54Well ahead where a lot of people had him going.

68:57You know, the Husky pick a lot of people thought was early.

69:01The Regis pick people thought was early. Wesley Williams pick.

69:04You know, all of them. All of them people thought were early.

69:08Other than Pregnon. But again, injury thing. And so, when you weigh two out of 19 with what the consensus board says,

69:15the concern and the criticism is valid. That being said, I understand what he was going for.

69:20Right? I understand. Okay. In the modern NFL landscape, if we have to choose between Brenton Strange and Devin Lloyd, we're going to choose Brenton Strange.

69:28And we're going to draft another tight end on top of that.

69:32Because we want to have two tight ends that can block.

69:36We want to have the ability to go to 12 personnel.

69:39We don't want to have to be 11 personnel reliant.

69:42We want to be able to do all the 12 and 13 stuff that everybody else is doing.

69:48And if we don't invest in tight end, we're not going to get one.

69:52Because we saw the run that tight end went on in the draft.

69:56There was, what, 22 of them? They got taken.

69:59It was absurd. Everybody was going after tight ends.

70:02So, they're like, hey, we really like this tight end at Texas A&M who can be a true Y.

70:08He can actually block. Which, obviously, Brenton can as well.

70:11But it means that we get to move Brenton around.

70:14And, you know, he gives us the versatility in a package that we couldn't really do last year.

70:20Right? And, okay, we have the worst interior defensive line, arguably, in the NFL.

70:24I guess we'll take Albert Regis, right? The sentient tree stump.

70:28Again, out of Texas A&M. Of like, oh, we want to get another tight end and do some 13 personnel stuff and

70:34have our one receiver on the field. Like, maybe that's going to be the JSN thing.

70:39When the Seahawks are going to 13 personnel and then they have JSN just run a deep post.

70:45Maybe that's going to be the Travis Hunter package.

70:48But we're going to have three tight ends on the field, right?

70:52You know, the Durfee pick was just like solely athletic upside.

70:55But, like, again, I understand it. A lot of these picks I understand in a vacuum, individually, what they were going for.

71:02But at the same time, the value that they got them in, you have to divorce yourself from that.

71:08So, I don't know. I'm kind of split on this.

71:11I get it and I don't get it. For now, just because it's a new regime and they're coming off a 13-win

71:18season, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

71:21But it's going to be a similar thing to the Patriots where it's like the second you guys stop winning, knives are coming out.

71:28Not necessarily from us, but from everybody else. Like, they're waiting for you to have a bad season before they look back

71:35at all this and say, ooh, God, what was he doing?

71:39Yeah. It is too early to tell, right? The 2026 picks have not even taken the field yet.

71:442025, many of them, you know, limited action at best.

71:47We're going to see more of them this year.

71:50So, you do have to wait to grade draft classes.

71:53We're not trying to grade this. We're trying to, again, build that profile on Gladstone and say, you know, yeah, he goes against the grain a lot.

72:02Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

72:04And it's kind of like the hurricane tracks, right?

72:07They go out in a curve because you don't know exactly where they're going to go.

72:12This could go really well for him. He could end up with six starters out of these two drafts and they could play really well.

72:20And I think everybody would be fine with that.

72:23Jags will probably keep winning. He could end up with two and they might not keep winning and that would not be fine.

72:30So, there is variance here. We will see as we go down, but we'll go through 2026 in a little bit more detail.

72:37Nate Borgature, we talked about a little bit. It was early.

72:41And again, you talked about opportunity costs and that's the big one.

72:45It's not that picking a tight end was the wrong pick.

72:48Sure, we get the vision. That tight end at that spot?

72:51Like, maybe not. There were other tight ends that were possibly better, but you thought that was the one and that is

72:58what you're going to hang your hat on. He is the first pick in this draft.

73:03It's not a first round pick because of what you traded for Travis Hunter last year, but it is your first pick

73:10in the draft and people will hold that in a certain account, especially for a new GM.

73:16The Jalen Husky pick I want to talk about for a second because Jalen Husky was one of the players I got

73:22to later in the process that I started reaching out to other draft analysts and I have a rule with them.

73:29I asked them, hey, have you watched this player?

73:32And if they have, I say, great. We have a conversation.

73:35If they haven't, I say, great. If you get to him, get back to me and then we'll have a conversation so

73:42that we're not basically contaminating other opinions. But Husky, I watched.

73:46I really liked. Then I went to his analytics profile and I liked him even more and I started to sort of

73:52go, wait, why aren't more people talking about him?

73:55Because I heard almost nobody talk about Jalen Husky in this pre-draft process.

73:59One of the things, if you're a patron, you already know this, that was really cool that we did with our draft

74:06rankings this year is we split safeties into different categories.

74:09Balanced box primary, free safety primary or slot primary based on where they lined up in college based on snap counts.

74:16So this is not just us sort of vibing on, hey, I think they'd be a better slot.

74:22This is where they lined up. But in terms of where Husky lands, he was a free safety primary player.

74:28Other players in that category in this draft were A.J.

74:31Halsey, Smith, Taff, Jacoby Thomas, Zaki Wheatley, Bishop Fitzgerald.

74:34Those are the guys he was up against. But in terms of some of the numbers he had that stuck out for

74:41me when I was really going through his profile, he's got great size, six foot, 192, perfect size.

74:46He was second overall in tackles among all those categories.

74:49The only guy that had more tackles than him, Thineman.

74:53He was second in interceptions right after guys like Jacoby Thomas and Bishop Fitzgerald.

74:57One of my favorites that you know is snaps in coverage for a reception.

75:01How many snaps does he have to take in coverage on average before they get a reception against him?

75:07His number, 30.8. Which usually once you get into the 20s, we're like, okay.

75:12Yeah, I mean, again, best in this class was Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.

75:15He was at 52.3. Zaki Wheatley was at 44.1.

75:18And Husky would have been in the running for third in the entire class among all safeties.

75:23The other NFL passer rating allowed when targeted is 55.9.

75:26Again, good size, good range. Athletic profile works. Analytic profile works.

75:30Tape profile works. Nobody, you could have heard a pin drop when you named this guy.

75:35There were a bunch of analysts I reached out to late were like, no, I haven't watched him yet.

75:41And I was like, maybe you should. Like, again, you talk about opportunity cost, where he got picked.

75:46Could you have waited till later? Whatever else. Like, with you, I get the profile.

75:51You need one. I think he's really good. He was literally your second pick.

75:55He was a top 100 pick. You made that guy a top 100 pick.

76:00I don't disagree with it based on my tape study.

76:03But if you're talking about going against consensus, they absolutely did.

76:06I can almost guarantee you that Campanelli saw the pick against Syracuse.

76:10Right? Where he broke and came downhill. It was a seam ball.

76:14And picked it off. You know, the first 10 steps were like gorgeous.

76:18And he's looking at, okay, I run a lot of quarters and quarter, quarter, half.

76:23Where my safeties need to be able to stop on a dime, redirect, get downhill, and attack something, you know, coming up the seam.

76:30I think he can do that. And especially he can get me the ball while doing that.

76:35And then he probably saw the highlights of him coming from 12 yards off the deck to make a tackle against the run.

76:43And he's like, guess what? We need to stop the run from too high.

76:47I think he can do that. And so, you know, again, early for me.

76:51But you see the vision. You see the profile.

76:54You see the fit. So you just have to divorce yourself from the value of a consensus board versus the value to the system.

77:02And we've already seen this team trade away Tyson Campbell because they didn't think he fit the system.

77:07Now, they did run more man coverage on third down.

77:10When they didn't have any man corners on third down after they traded Tyson, then they couldn't do it anymore.

77:17So, again, I question some of the stuff he does because, like, the only time you call man coverage on the most

77:24important down, you traded away your one guy that could do it.

77:27Maybe don't do that, James. But it shows that they value system fit over everything because Tyson's not really a zone corner.

77:34And on first and second down, they're 90% to 95% zone.

77:38So they value fit over everything. And he fits.

77:41I'll give him that. So, Jags fans, moral of the story on Jalen Husky, don't sell him short.

77:46Don't sleep on this pick. He absolutely could work out, even though the screams you're hearing from around the NFL draftscape are allowed.

77:53Block them out. There's a very strong possibility that he works out.

77:57It's actually several very strong possibilities. Other pick in the third round, Albert Regis.

78:01Again, fits in a very narrow code. Albert Regis is a penetrator.

78:05He is a three-tech. He is the punch-a-hold in the offensive line on third down and rec quarterback shop.

78:11He is not an every-down defensive tackle. That is not his role.

78:15He is not going to stand in there against all the Goliaths on the interior offensive line in the NFL and hold up.

78:22But he can win 101 and win quickly from the inside, which is a valued skill set in the NFL.

78:28Valued enough for 81? Even for me, who likes Regis a lot, that was maybe two rounds early.

78:34That's the kind of, again, very specific skill set you get for a very specific down in the fourth round or the fifth round.

78:42They chose to pick him, again, top 100, almost top 80.

78:45Early for me, but again, they're desperate for some pass rush from the defensive tackle position.

78:50We've talked about that. Again, I see the fit.

78:53The value proposition didn't really work out for me.

78:56To round out the third round at 88, Manuel Pregnon, absolute ass kicker at Oregon, one of my very favorite guards in this entire draft.

79:03Had some medical issues. If he's like Trey Smith, a guard with medical issues that don't manifest when he gets to the NFL.

79:11Dude, if he's like Trey Smith, this is one of the best picks in the draft.

79:16And he could be. Holy shit. From a physical perspective, when you talk about Trey Smith, how did Kansas City get Trey Smith way down?

79:23I think it was the sixth round. Like, he had blood clot issues and everybody was afraid.

79:29Like, you watch the tape, it was dominant, but everybody was like, I don't know if he's going to be on the field.

79:36Similar but not the same with Pregnon. He's dominant when he's on the field.

79:40He is an absolute bulldozer in a run game.

79:43He's very effective as a pass blocker as well.

79:46One of literally my favorite guards in this entire draft.

79:49If he's healthy in the pros, this will look like a slam dunk.

79:53Wasn't Pregnon there at Olin Masterminds doing the little breakout sessions with Trey Smith?

79:58When Trey would, like, take all, like, the interior guys off on his side?

80:02Because all the Oregon guys were there. I think it was Cornelius, Pregnon.

80:06Yeah, I don't know if Pregnon was there the year that we were there or not.

80:11But just from tape, the combine, like, I came away loving Emmanuel Pregnon as a fit for basically, there are very few

80:18players that I go, I'm kind of agnostic. Oh, it doesn't have to be a zone scheme.

80:23It doesn't have to be a gap scheme. Like, I just go, I don't really care where he goes.

80:29He's going to be an asset. Pregnon was in that category for me.

80:33Really, really good player. Again, all things being equal, would have easily been a top 50 pick.

80:39I can't even remember what the medical thing was, but obviously it was substantial.

80:43I want to say shoulder, but I'll have to double check.

80:46But I had heard only whispers about it. And then when he was, when he made it out of day one, I

80:53was like, and then almost made it out of day two.

80:57I was like, well, okay, why did he not get picked in the second round?

81:01Because his talent definitely slots him in that caliber of players.

81:05Let's put it that way. So when he slipped, it basically laid into the third round.

81:10I was like, okay. And people said, yeah, it was more of a concern than some folks had let on.

81:16As we get into day three of the draft, round four, pick 119, Wesley Williams, the edge out of Duke.

81:22I was somewhat whelmed with Williams. I think he is a good player.

81:26He's a solid player. He was not a needle mover for me.

81:30He has flashes. He is more of the heavy-handed, edge-setting, not a lot of bend, not a ton of burst, but smart football player, tough.

81:38You know, you could see that, again, NFL teams need players like him who will do the dirty work down to down, and he will do that.

81:46And I don't think that fourth round is an out-of-line value for me.

81:50This pick didn't make me go, oh, too early, or oh, geez, what a value.

81:55It was like, okay, this is about when I, the earliest, I would have pulled him off the board, but I, you

82:02know, I think he is a role player in the NFL.

82:06I, yeah, this one's just early for me. Like, again, I'll be nice about it.

82:10Early. Just very, very early, especially considering some of the other edges that were on the board.

82:16Yeah. You know, like Tanner Kozio at 164, it's like, okay, I can understand that because he's tall and runs like a

82:22deer, and, like, there's a role there. As your third tight end, you know, your, hey, go run a slot fade.

82:29Even if Trevor throws it super flat, you'll figure it out.

82:32You're six foot six, six, seven, whatever it is.

82:35Right? You know, Josh Cameron and CJ Williams, I was like, I don't want to, they're never going to start here.

82:42Like, I don't like them as much as I like Parker.

82:45Like, well, when they took Parker back in the day, I was like, oh, my God.

82:50It's a carbon copy of Christian Kirk. He's going to be their new Christian Kirk.

82:55And then he was their new Christian Kirk. Took a while, but we got there.

83:00Yep. I have none of those feelings for Cameron and CJ Williams in terms of the, wow, this is a great day three value at receiver.

83:08Durfee, you know, as an edge with super freakish athleticism and the upside of that, try to put him on the Trayvon Walker plan, bring him along.

83:16Like, sure. Again, he's already 24 and a half.

83:19So you would hope that he would already be a little bit further along, but he's not.

83:24It is what it is. And then Parker Hughes, linebacker, middle Tennessee.

83:28Honestly, I didn't get to him. So I'll leave you for thoughts on him.

83:32But the only day three picks, not even picks, pick that I was like, yeah, I can get on board was Kozio.

83:39That was about it. Yeah, I love Kozio. I'm unabashed Tanner Kozio fan.

83:43I went on Matt Harmon's podcast at the Combine as his annual tradition and threw him a curveball with my very first

83:50guy because I knew he wouldn't have watched him.

83:53And I gave him Tanner Kozio to his credit.

83:56He also doesn't do a lot with tight ends, but he was like, OK, roll with the DJ.

84:02You've got a pretty good hit rate. Tall, runs like crazy, is a tremendous seam threat, like has knack for catching balls down the seam, even through contact.

84:10Really, really like Tanner Kozio. Well, Josh Cameron, I'm going to keep up for a little bit here because he's not what

84:17I would call a traditional wide receiver prospect. In fact, wore a running back number.

84:22He wore 34, 6'1", 221. He is a 23-year-old, very solidly built.

84:26He's a fifth-year senior, but he had a bunch of production over the last couple of years, 872 yards receiving and then 750 the year before that.

84:34He can take some punishment. He's almost, you know, the running back number belies how he plays.

84:39You can throw him a short pass and he can go run through some people.

84:44Doesn't necessarily have the best. He's got a good release game, but it's not really sharp is what I would call it.

84:51So he can round some of his routes, but he's got a really good spin move.

84:56He is not afraid to lower shoulder and run through a defensive back.

85:00Good contested catcher. He talked about the best contested catchers are in the 50% range.

85:05He was a 59% contested catcher. He is really mean on screens.

85:09I don't want the Jags to go back to a screen game, but if they do, Josh Cameron's your dude.

85:15So he has special teams value. He is built like a running back and you can do some really interesting things with him.

85:22Do I think he's going to crack this rotation?

85:25Probably not. He's going to end up as a practice squatter or a special teamer, but he's built for that.

85:31So I'm okay with it because again, we're talking about opportunity costs.

85:35This is down the boards. One 91. He's in the sixth round.

85:39And then Zach Durfee injuries transfer always potential. Just one of those guys that was on the doorstep several times in college, but didn't get there.

85:47Hopefully this is opportunity and it all lines up for him and he can demonstrate some of those skills because this is

85:54a guy with a nine, seven, seven, RAS relative athletic score.

85:57He is very, very talented. I saw him at the pro day.

86:01I was like, who is this guy? Because again, he didn't make waves at Washington.

86:05My UW contact was like, oh, Zach Durfee, like the sort of always almost is what they called him.

86:11And I was like, all right, cool. And then he ended up being featured in a series by Kalen Kaler called Prospect

86:18X where she chronicled his journey through the draft, but didn't reveal his name until after he was drafted.

86:24That was Zach Durfee if you read that series.

86:27As far as UDFAs, a few here that I actually like.

86:31So Trevor Pena, not necessarily for what he did at Penn State, but for what he did before that at Syracuse, right?

86:37He was really, really nice slot receiver in that Q's offense.

86:41It was extremely productive. Again, yet another guy that can really run the shit out of a slot fade.

86:47I'll tell you that much. Michael Wortham, the receiver out of Montana, as if the receiver room wasn't crowded enough during camp.

86:54Devin Marshall, the CB out of NC State. Brian Thomas Jr.

86:57Another one. I brought him up just because it's interesting that they're going to have two BTJs at camp here this year.

87:04And then Jamari Taylor was one of our 10 gems, specifically one of EJ's 10 gems.

87:09And you can go back and you can watch our entire discussion about Jamari Taylor.

87:14But EJ, if you want to give like a truncated version real quick about what you like about him.

87:20Yeah, it'll have to be a truncated version because I spent 10 minutes probably waxing poetic on that podcast about him.

87:26He ended up as, again, we each get to pick five offensive gems from the entire class.

87:32And Jamari Taylor ended up as one of mine.

87:34Very versatile runner that gets the most out of his opportunities, has done it at multiple levels.

87:40A lot of people, if he hadn't moved on from his previous level of competition, again, finish his career at Virginia, would

87:47have said, oh, well, it's level of competition. Well, he did it against all the defenders he faced at Virginia.

87:53Very high level of talent there and has special teams value as well.

87:57Has a return touchdown. Is a good receiver. Like very versatile player.

88:01It reminds me somewhat in terms of the versatility of LaQuint Allen.

88:04Different physical player, different style. But the fact that you can just plug him in.

88:09Good blocker. Good in the receiving game. Gets the most out of each carry and gives value on special teams.

88:15I think that's a great pickup as a UDFA.

88:18Devin Marshall, I really thought should have been drafted.

88:21I think there's probably something there. I reached out and people had some lukewarm reason.

88:26Oh, he's stiff. I didn't see him as stiff.

88:28Again, if you're going to play quarters and you're going to play top down, like Devin Marshall is a tremendous fit.

88:35I would have drafted him in the probably fourth round.

88:38So getting him as a UDFA for whatever reason is a great addition to this class.

88:43And Wertham, the receiver out of Montana by way of Eastern Washington, is just a great story.

88:48He was a Walter Payton Award finalist and consensus All-American in 2025.

88:52Started all. Okay, this is a weird number. 13 games for the Grizzlies?

88:56The Grizzlies played 13 games in 2025? Oh, FCS playoffs.

88:59Right. But I was like, whoa, the Grizzlies played.

89:02I mean, there was a time the Grizzlies played eight or nine.

89:0613. Crazy number of games. 85 receptions. The Montana and Dakota, like directional Dakota teams are fucking wagons in the FCS, man.

89:13Like, they're all really good. I'm with you. I got a buddy at Mercer.

89:17Whenever they play against one of those teams, he's like, let's get this over with.

89:22Yeah. Yeah. 85 receptions for 1,200 yards, 345 rushing yards, and 862 combined return yards, 782 on kickoffs, only 80 on punts.

89:29He was a high school quarterback who threw for, get this, 4,000 yards and 55 touchdown passes in 27 games.

89:35And he was a baseball and track guy. So parents, let your kids be multi-sport athletes.

89:40That's right. Riley's sitting at home listening to this podcast going like, what the fuck did Mercer do to catch strays?

89:47Nothing. Just existed. Just existed. Before we get to ceiling and floor, you guys saw us raise our glasses earlier.

89:53I do want to shout out Woodinville again for providing our lovely pours today.

89:57This is just the baseline Woodinville. This is not the port cast finish.

90:01It's not the apple stave finish. It's not, you know, one of the darker ones, the seven year, the eight year, the nine year.

90:09This is just normal Woodinville, which is also really damn good.

90:12If you want to find the entire Woodinville catalog, they have a huge selection.

90:17So if you're a bourbon drinker or rather actually even better for the people that aren't bourbon drinkers and think they don't

90:24like bourbon, go get the port cast finish. Yes.

90:26Because it will convert people into loving bourbon because it's incredible.

90:30And it's only like 45 bucks, which for might be $49, which for bourbon is like great, right?

90:35To have a really, really high quality bottle that is like so unbelievably approachable for, you know, 50 or less dollars.

90:42It's great stuff. So you can find that again at the link in the description below or at the QR code on the screen.

90:50Thank you once again to Woodinville for providing our refreshments this entire series.

90:54EJ, you mentioned earlier, you might put them a game higher than what they finished last year.

90:59Reminder, 13 and four. Yep. High bar to clear.

91:02What is your ceiling and four? Yeah, extremely high bar to clear, but I think they can do it for many of

91:09the reasons we've talked about for the last 90 minutes or so.

91:12My ceiling is 14 and my floor is 10.

91:15Even if the wheels fall off this team, I cannot see them not winning double digit games.

91:21And that probably means a playoff berth, even in the AFC South.

91:24So Wyatt could all work another year into Cohen's offense with basically all the same players in place, save HN, and a

91:31defense that was just hunting last year under Campanelli.

91:34They could stack an extra game on top of what is already an honestly impressive total.

91:3913 games is very hard to win in the NFL.

91:42But again, we said that they hit that total and they didn't do everything right.

91:47If they again hit all the green lights, like we said they would last year.

91:52Yes, probability says that they won't, but they could.

91:54And that's what ceiling is about. For floor, Wyatt could all fall apart.

91:58If Tootin can't keep this offense on schedule the way HN did so often, they might stumble a bit.

92:04That'll be less chances. You talked about them having so many bites at the apple early on.

92:10I don't see any way this team is truly bad.

92:13There is too much talent on the roster. We really like the coaching staff, both on offense and on defense.

92:19That's pretty rare. I just don't see any way that they're bad.

92:23And double digit wins, again, makes them a favorite to repeat in the playoffs.

92:27I I'm very bullish on the Jags in 2026.

92:30I think they could win 13 again. I'll start by saying that.

92:34So Jags fans, don't kill me. I think they could win 13 again.

92:38That's my ceiling. It's doing exactly what they did last year.

92:41However, if they win 13 games with their schedule, that means they're the best team in the league.

92:47Especially if they win 14, then they're like winning the Super Bowl, like over the Rams or the Seahawks or whoever your number one is right now.

92:55If they win 14 games with a schedule and I'm just going to read it off here.

93:01So they start with Cleveland. Okay. Yeah. Next six games at Denver, host the Patriots at Cincinnati, which if you listen to

93:08the Bengals episode, they're better this year. Hosting the Eagles, hosting the Texans.

93:12When's the last time a Jags and Texans game was a normal football game?

93:16And then hosting the Colts. And then after that, you go to Baltimore.

93:20Okay. We got two out of the next three against the Titans or three out of the next three are Titans, Giants, Titans.

93:27Got a little bit of reprieve. You can bounce back a little bit, even if you start the year rough.

93:34And then you got the Bears, the Steelers, the Texans again, and the fucking Cowboys Christmas week.

93:39It's a hard schedule. Yeah. And there's a couple little windows of reprieve in there.

93:44But if they win 13 against that, that means they're literally the best team in the league.

93:49So my floor is eight. That is if everything goes wrong.

93:52Let's say Colvin Landon somehow regresses and isn't the left tackle that he showed himself to be last season out of nowhere.

93:59Right. Let's say Tootin can't get it done like A-Chan.

94:02Let's say the BTJ issues we talked about don't actually get fixed.

94:06You know, let's say Parker Washington, for whatever reason, regresses and isn't the actual number one that he was in the back half of the year.

94:14You know, Jacoby is still going to be Jacoby.

94:17Jacoby is just, you know, he is like a Dyson sphere.

94:20He is a self-contained ecosystem. He's always going to be himself.

94:24But like, what if Travis doesn't provide the answers as a wide receiver three slash four?

94:29Or what if Travis isn't the corner that we think he is coming out?

94:33Because a lot of the value of Travis as a player was the fact that he could do both.

94:39I don't think anybody thought he was, you know, well, Matt had him as a generational receiver, but I don't think anybody had him as a generational corner.

94:48Right. So if he's playing full-time corner and he's not an elite corner out of the box, like what if he doesn't

94:55become what people hope he can be? What if the linebacker situation is bad?

94:59What if the defensive interior is still one of the worst in the NFL?

95:04It's a lot of ifs. I'm not saying all of those are going to happen.

95:08If enough of them happen, this could be an eight-win team.

95:12I'm not saying a bad team. I'm not saying an easy team to beat.

95:16But the floor is low because there's a lot of stuff that's like, ah, maybe.

95:21Right. But again, there's a lot of stuff that could be maybe in a good way.

95:26Cole Van Lannen still being one of the best contracts in football.

95:30BTJ taking a step. Maybe Travis is an elite corner.

95:33Who am I to say? You know, maybe Jack Kaiser is like their new Devin Lloyd.

95:38But okay, you had me up until the last one.

95:41Most of that's plausible, though. Most of it, but not that last one.

95:45If they win this division with that schedule, like division round or only getting to the division round would be a disappointment.

95:52Yes. That's conference championship minimum if they have that kind of season.

95:56So it's possible. But you can see the wide range.

95:59It's a five-game range for me. I don't know how many teams in this entire series I'm going to have a five-win range.

96:06But 13 at the high end, eight at the low end.

96:09You could convince me of any result in between there.

96:12And I think that's part of the reason why Jags fans are so nervous is because they're kind of afraid to hope for the 13.

96:20Because part of them is like, oh, maybe it's the eight.

96:24Yeah, again, going back to what you said way up at the top of the podcast, there is that PTSD of we

96:31can only be good for a year and then we just have to fall off the peak.

96:36That's just the way it goes. Don't you understand?

96:39We're Jags fans. We do understand. But we also think probably not.

96:42You probably can sustain this. This was not built with a break glass in case of emergency situation where the glass got broken.

96:50You have enough pieces on the coaching side, on the roster for continued success here.

96:54I realize you're not used to it. That's okay.

96:57Get used to it. I think it's going to be there.

97:01A lot of Jags fans don't like me. I'm curious to see what their opinions are after this episode.

97:07I feel like I was pretty fair, all things considered.

97:10But again, Jags fans let me know. Because they will.

97:13They very much don't like me. That's okay. That's okay.

97:16We can disagree, but I'm not going to lie to you.

97:19My job is to sit here and at least tell you the truth as I see it.

97:25Or at least give you my honest, truthful opinion on this team.

97:28All right. That wraps it up for the AFC South.

97:32But remember, tomorrow over on the Patreon, we have our AFC South finale?

97:36Wrap up? We never really name these. We don't.

97:38We're going to pick our division winner. Again, there's three very viable answers for that question.

97:43So we're going to pick our division winner, division MVPs, coach of the year, rookies of the year, offensive and defense player

97:50of the year, bold predictions, all that. That's going to be on the Patreon tomorrow.

97:55So make sure you come back for that. And then next week is the NFC South.

98:00All of those teams finished, again, very close to each other.

98:04So I can't remember who the first show is, but you'll see it on Sunday on Buzzer, kicking off the NFC South,

98:10and then Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday on Buzzer, the subsequent teams.

98:14Thank you once again to Buzzer for co-producing this show.

98:17Remember, every single episode goes live 24 hours early over there.

98:20You can find that link in the description. All right.

98:23Last plugs. Woodinville, homage. Thank you once again, all of our sponsors, all of our patrons.

98:28Thank you for making this dream of ours come true.

98:31We are over halfway through the series. Three weeks to go, and we will see you on Sunday.

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