PodcastFrom Bootleg Football
For eight weeks a year, the Colts are unbeatable.
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 9 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 19, 2026
Published
Wed, August 19, 2026
12
Player insights
9
Players mentioned
Topics
Daniel JonesAlec PierceC.J. StroudDeion BurksJonathan TaylorLaquon TreadwellMichael PittmanSeth McGowanTyler Warren
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveRole16:55
Alec Pierce was a key beneficiary of the Colts' aggressive passing scheme during the first 10 weeks, frequently winning on intermediate routes like deep crosses and digs that cleared out space for the offense's explosive play-calling.
Insight pagePositiveValue66:33
Alec Pierce received a $28.5 million contract, which Daniel Jones deems well-deserved. His potential was showcased during the first 10 weeks of the season when Daniel Jones was healthy and utilizing his speed for deep-field chunks.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
NegativeProjection68:01
The analysts anticipate discussing CJ Stroud in the upcoming episode covering the Texans, with a humorous note about managing their excitement or 'existential crises' regarding his performance.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveRole2:00
The Colts' offense was elite during the first 10 weeks of 2025 with Daniel Jones at the helm, ranking first in total points scored and explosive pass rate. His presence allowed the team to maintain an aggressive, pass-first philosophy on first down, which kept defenses off-balance and created high-efficiency scoring drives.
Insight pageNegativeInjury5:06
Daniel Jones suffered an Achilles injury that derailed the Colts' season, leading to a winless 0-7 record after their Week 11 bye. While there is optimism he could start Week 1 of 2026, the recovery timeline remains a significant factor for his early-season availability and performance.
Insight pagePositiveProjection64:31
The Colts' success is heavily tied to Daniel Jones' health; when he is on the field, the team is viewed as a legitimate Super Bowl contender capable of winning 12-13 games. The team's performance significantly declined without him last year, and his return to full health is the primary catalyst for their ceiling.
Insight pageDeion Burks
NegativeValue50:47
Dion Burks is a capable receiver who will likely need to earn his roster spot on special teams; while he was a polarizing prospect, his selection in the seventh round represents appropriate value.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeUsage11:37
Jonathan Taylor's rushing efficiency plummeted after Daniel Jones' injury, with his yards per carry dropping from 5.7 to 3.3. This decline was largely due to opposing linebackers no longer fearing the pass, allowing them to fly downhill and plug gaps, rather than a decline in Taylor's individual talent or the offensive line's play.
Insight pageLaquon Treadwell
NegativeUsage66:55
Laquon Treadwell is highlighted for his longevity in the NFL, having played 11 seasons despite limited snap counts (3.4% of snaps) and a modest $1.4 million salary.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveValue63:58
Following his trade to the Steelers, Daniel Jones expects Michael Pittman Jr. to be a very good piece for their offense.
Insight pageSeth McGowan
PositiveValue50:40
Seth McGowan is a talented runner with explosive ability and pass-catching skills, making him a strong value pick in the seventh round for a rotational third-down back role.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveBreakout21:13
Tyler Warren was highly effective as a rookie in the Colts' offense, serving as a reliable target for screens and chain-moving plays that allowed the team to reset their aggressive first-down passing strategy.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00For exactly two months in 2025, the Colts were the best team in football.
0:04They were scoring at a rate that was seen as damn near impossible.
0:08I mean, hell, their average margin of victory was 17 points.
0:12That's higher than the average number of points that Tennessee scored at all.
0:16And that was just what Indy was winning by.
0:18They were truly a juggernaut. Until they weren't. We'll take a look at the injury here to Sauce Gardner.
0:24You're just going to see him backpedaling, backpedaling, and then clearly comes up gingerly there.
0:29Jones is grabbing the other leg. He is. Oh, he may need to come out of this game.
0:34Look, we're not going to relitigate why this team ended their season with seven straight losses because we all know why at this point.
0:42But what we will do is talk about why they started eight and two.
0:46We'll break down what worked, what didn't. And most importantly, now that they're healthy, can they do it again?
0:52Welcome to the Bootleg Football. I'm Brett Coleman. That's EJ Snyder.
0:55It's Colts day. A tragic story in 2025. A team of what ifs.
0:59We have a lot to go over. Some of it fairly depressing.
1:03A lot of it very exciting. EJ, where would you like to begin?
1:07I think probably with the exciting stuff, but that's, I think, what Colts fans probably want to hear as well.
1:13As you said in the intro, and as we're going to say many times today, this was a very, very different team
1:20with Daniel Jones at the helm and one of the very best in the entire league.
1:25And I think that's a really good place to start because they were so good.
1:30Again, because the season ended the way that it did, that's the recency bias.
1:34We think about the wheels falling off and not the threshing machine they were through the first 10 weeks.
1:40So in 2025, overall record was eight and nine ranking the division third at the end home record of six and three road record of two and six.
1:48And of course, the last five games, they were Oh, and five.
1:52That is after Daniel Jones went out, but even more.
1:55So it was a big slide to end the year.
1:58You talk about tragedy and look, I know tragedy has been big at the box office this year with Odysseus getting home
2:05and all, but they lost every game after their bi-week, which was in week 11.
2:10They were Oh and seven. They weren't just Oh and five.
2:13They went Oh and seven. And also a completely different team at home versus on the road.
2:18They won 66% of their games in Indianapolis on the road.
2:22They won 33%. So some teams are road warriors.
2:24The Colts are home warriors. And you know, their schedule was very front loaded with home games as well.
2:30Six of their nine home games were in the first 10 weeks of the season when, you know, Daniel Jones was healthy and the offense was incredible.
2:39And again, sauce was on the field for a month for this team.
2:43Not even right. So they did get a lot of the home games out of the way when this team was at their best.
2:50And then let's be honest. I kind of don't really have any interest of breaking down.
2:55Weeks 11 on weeks 11 onward. It wasn't the same team.
2:58It wasn't really a team that I expect to have any relevance in when we look at what they're going to be in 2026, right?
3:06Because sauce is coming back. Jones is coming back.
3:09He might start week one. Like they're kind of acting like he will, which coming off an Achilles doesn't sound possible, but
3:16you know, medical science has advanced enough. Apparently we're Daniel Jones might start week one coming off an Achilles and my homes
3:22might start week one coming off a fucked up knee as well.
3:26So it used to be, you know, these injuries were like, Oh, you're not coming back till Thanksgiving.
3:32And now it's like nothing ever happened. It's wild.
3:34But again, that week 11 onward, I just don't care.
3:37And I don't think Colts fans either at this point, they, they want to hear about what this team was like when they were actually like themselves.
3:46Yeah. We'll give them the umbrella stats because when we do our effectiveness summary, it is for the entire season.
3:52But when we get to the breakdowns and the schematics, we're really going to focus on the time when Daniel Jones was
3:59at the helm, because that's when this team was quite frankly, the most powerful and the most interesting.
4:04But again, our effectiveness summary does have to cover the entire year because it covers the entire year for every team.
4:11And it wouldn't be apples to apples if we didn't do it that way.
4:15So the way that we do effectiveness is something called bootleg power score, six numbers that we think are good indicators of
4:22a football team's overall prowess at football. Are they good at football or are they not?
4:27And the numbers we use are passing EPA per play, rushing EPA per play, defense against the rush and the pass also
4:34figured in EPA per play, then points scored and points allowed.
4:37We assign their league rank to those, add them up, divide by six, that gives us a raw score.
4:43Then we stack them and that's their power score.
4:46Where do they rank relative to their peers in all of those categories once it gets averaged out?
4:51So passing EPA per play again for the season, not just the Daniel Jones portion was 11th, not bad.
4:57And it was much higher than that one. Daniel Jones was in.
5:01We'll talk about that. Rushing EPA per play tied for second.
5:04And we're going to talk about why that was.
5:07It actually figures into our Patreon viewer note this episode.
5:10So in terms of pass EPA per play allowed, they were 19th rush EPA per play allowed.
5:15They were ninth point scored eighth best scoring offense in the league, 466 points.
5:19This team was an absolute machine in those first 10 weeks points allowed.
5:23They were 21st. Now that doesn't sound great. But again, if you have the eighth best scoring offense and the 21st best
5:30scoring defense, you're still going to win a lot of games.
5:34Their points differential, even though they slacked off at the end of the year in terms of that rabid scoring pace was plus 54.
5:41So their raw score was 11.67. And again, lower is better, just like golf that put them at seventh overall in the league.
5:48And I think that number might be surprising to fans outside of Indianapolis, but not to fans of the Colts that watched those first 10 weeks.
5:56And we're sort of reveling in the fact, hey, they're here.
5:59This is a really good team. They're doing exactly what we've always wanted them to do.
6:04And then, of course, the unfortunate thing happened at the end of the year and Daniel Jones got injured.
6:10This team was just so good until Daniel Jones got hurt and then they couldn't adjust and it all collapsed.
6:16And to be fair, that's the way it is in the NFL with a lot of teams.
6:22If you're starting quarterback goes down, you're not going to be really even a semblance of yourself.
6:27If you are, it's a huge credit to your coaching staff and people getting the backup quarterback ready.
6:32But most teams are going to experience a pretty severe drop off.
6:36That's why the starters the starter. So in terms of so good, what do we mean?
6:41They were number one in total points scored by almost 40 over second place.
6:45Number four in explosive pass rate. Again, this is in the first 10 weeks when Daniel Jones was playing.
6:51Interestingly enough, the rushing number, and this is the one that caught my eye as I was going through it.
6:575.7 yards per rushing per rush attempt by running backs in the first 10 weeks.
7:02And after Daniel Jones went down, that number dropped to 3.3, negative 2.4 yards.
7:06It dropped after Daniel Jones left from first in the league to 31st, like a massive number.
7:12And most people would say, why? It's the running attack.
7:15It's the quarterback. And interestingly enough for this episode, we got a great question from one of our patrons, Jonathan Ben.
7:21And it says, I wonder, is there a different correlation to be made between JT's game-breaking performances while DJ was healthy and
7:28his slump in form following DJ's injury that isn't related to DJ being hurt?
7:32An example of my thought process is, as has been said, the offensive line sets the floor and the running back sets the ceiling.
7:40QB isn't making a huge difference in that regard.
7:42Why was there such a drop in performance? And can we associate it to something else beyond the fact that the linebackers
7:49were able to just fly downhill and not be scared of the pass?
7:53Well, that's a big one, actually, and we're going to dive into it.
7:57That is a huge point, is when Daniel Jones was back there, this was one of the most dangerous passing offenses in the league.
8:05And the linebackers absolutely had to respect that first, because if they didn't, they were going to get gutted that way and lose the game.
8:12So after that, they didn't need to, and they could fly downhill and plug gaps.
8:17But the amount of that drop is what caught my eye.
8:20That's a huge difference, 2.4 yards. So this is going to be a lot.
8:25I need you to bear with me here for those following along at home.
8:29The entire philosophy of the offense changed the moment DJ went down, right?
8:33This was a ultra-aggressive first-down team, because if they failed to get a chunk play, typically through the pass on first down,
8:40they still had two more downs, I should say, to convert, right?
8:43So if it's second and 10, that was their heavy rundown.
8:47That was their get-back-on-track-down. Like, they were much higher run rate on second down compared to first down when Daniel Jones was healthy, right?
8:5430th in run rate on first down, 9th in run rate on second down.
8:58Because if the attempt to get a chunk on first down failed, fine.
9:02We have JT. We can try to get back to second and five, or third and five after a five-yard run on second down.
9:10And also, typically, because if it's second and 10, we're facing more pass defense structures, there's a higher likelihood that JT, being
9:17JT, can rip off a huge run and just get us back to first down anyway, in which case, we're going to bomb it down the field again.
9:25So, again, it was first down, explosive pass. Like, that was the goal.
9:29Second down, get back on track. Third down, move the chains, by any means necessary, right?
9:34That was typically where they tried to rely on yards after the catch, right?
9:38A lot of slants, a lot of quick outs, a lot of hitches, a lot of screens, just anything to get seven
9:45yards to move the chains and get back to the down they really cared about, which was first down, where they just
9:52threw the ball over and over and over again.
9:55And when I say that they tried to stretch the field on first down, they didn't do it with go balls.
10:01Like, they were really more prioritizing higher percentage explosive plays, right?
10:05So, it was a lot of dagger. It was a lot of, like, three-level flood concepts with either a backside dig or,
10:11like, a backside deep out to take advantage of that one-on-one.
10:15Alec Pierce would eat a lot on those. You know, plenty of deep crosses underneath two verts, and the verts would kind of clear everything out.
10:23Then you hit the cross underneath it. You know, occasionally you would see a go ball, but again, their shots were really
10:30more intermediate, especially over the middle, or a safer throw intermediate to the sideline, which, again, is either going to be a
10:36deep out or a crossing route or something like that.
10:39And they would do that on first down over and over and over again, to the point where almost 35% of their
10:46first downs got converted into another first down. That was by far the highest in the league.
10:51And that was the goal, right? The goal was to not really be put into a compromised position.
10:57It's like, we just want to get it out of the way, get our explosives, move the chains, and just chain those explosives together.
11:04Early on in the season, it was them and the Rams were the two teams that did that at the highest rate.
11:11And again, because you had JT in your back pocket, you could kind of treat him as that side dish on second down.
11:18Of like, hey, we're seeing a two-high safety structure on second and long.
11:22Let's see what he can get us. And it worked really well.
11:26But then when DJ got hurt, they became more of a first down run team, not a first down pass team, because
11:33they didn't trust that they could get those explosives at the same rate as DJ would get them, along with Alec and Warren and all these guys.
11:41And so, you know, you go from a first down run rate of 30th up to 11th post-DJ injury, and you go
11:48a second down run rate from 9th down to 27th, and you can see how the entire philosophy of the offense flipped.
11:55It wasn't necessarily an offensive line issue. It wasn't really a JT issue.
11:59It was the fact that they, you know, they were, so we're like subverting expectations, I guess, with the Daniel Jones offense
12:05in terms of when they ran and when they threw.
12:08And then they became more normal, you know, once DJ got hurt.
12:12And they became an offense that teams were used to playing against, which is first down run, second down pass.
12:18And oh, by the way, they weren't very good at that whole second down pass part.
12:23So, yes, part of it is DJ got hurt and linebackers are flying downhill, but it's really more about when they were running and when they were throwing.
12:32And the percentages became a lot more predictable, and therefore the offense just got worse.
12:36And, you know, that's why I think, you know, DJ coming back this year, I think they're going to do that again because it worked.
12:44Throw, throw, throw on first down. Sprinkle in JT on second down.
12:48If we get to third and five, all right, here's a screen to Tyler Warren.
12:53Get us a first down, re-rack it. Let's go back and do the same thing again.
12:57Again, it's an offense that works when everybody's healthy.
13:00And I think it's exactly what they're going to try to do again.
13:04It's a real superpower in the NFL. If you have a quarterback that can allow you to do that, do what the
13:11defense doesn't expect, and to your point, convert it at a high rate.
13:15And they were doing that through the first 10 weeks.
13:18They were delivering. And to your point, if they delivered the first time, they were going to come right back and try
13:25and deliver the second time with no break. They were going to go first down to first down to first down.
13:31If they could, they were going to push it down the field.
13:35It reminds me of a blitz heavy defense. It's like, oh, we got home on a blitz.
13:40Oh, and now it's third and 12. What are we going to do?
13:44Oh, we're not going to sit back. We're going to blitz again because you couldn't handle it last time.
13:50You're not going to handle it this time. And they kept that pressure on opposing defenses by just pushing the ball and
13:57converting it at a crazy high rate. And defense has just kind of got overwhelmed.
14:02They just got rolled. And, you know, if you can do that, build a first half lead, again, plays into your hands on defense.
14:09When you get on defense, you can unleash the pass rushers.
14:12They're behind. They're going to have to throw. They become more predictable.
14:16You force them to do that. They can't run their way back into the game.
14:21If you're, you know, chaining first downs, chaining points together, they're going to have to run or throw to catch up, sprint to catch up.
14:28And Daniel Jones allowed them to do that. And after he went down, they were not able to do that.
14:34And defenses relaxed a great deal. Let me tell you, the first couple of teams that had the Colts after DJ went
14:41down, went, whew, glad we didn't get them during that 10 week run, because that would have been a handful.
14:47I mean, even just look at the, the run rate of when they were in a score differential of more than 15 points.
14:54They still only ran the ball 50% of the time when they were up by 15 plus points.
15:00That's crazy low relative to everybody else. When they're in that kind of a lead, most teams are just going to be
15:07like, all right, here have the ball, Derek Henry or James cook.
15:11Like let's go home. Nope. They were throwing 50% of the time with that much of a lead.
15:16Like, and that's how you end up with the stats that they had, right?
15:20Like again, first 10 weeks, 57.6% scoring drive percentage.
15:23By far the best in the league. 37.4% of their drives were touchdowns.
15:27Easily. Number one, less than 20% of their drives were punts easily.
15:31The lowest in the league. Number one in the EPA per play number two and success rate number one in yards per play.
15:38You mentioned they were number four and pass rate.
15:41They were number five and explosive run rate. Again, wasn't that high of a volume in terms of when they ran, but
15:47if you're going against two high structures on second along and JT has 12 yards of space between him and the safety,
15:54and he just has to make one guy miss, he's going to make that guy miss and get an explosive.
16:00So it's just, it was an outrageous, outrageous offense and everybody was healthy.
16:04The offensive line was good. The quarterback's playing out of his mind.
16:08Alec Pierce was awesome. Tyler, Tyler Ward was great as a rookie.
16:12JT didn't have to be the guy. And I, of course you have Shane Steichen call him the thing and he's awesome as well.
16:19There was no weakness. The entire offense, there was no weakness in the first 10 weeks.
16:24And I really do believe that if they didn't sustain the injuries, they did.
16:28They probably would have been the first seed in the AFC.
16:32I don't think anybody would have beat them one quick break.
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18:26No, I doubt anybody catches them. And again, if you said it's a case of what ifs at the beginning of the
18:33show, and if he'd stayed healthy, they probably would have been in the AFC title game.
18:38Like they were playing well enough to do that on defense and we'll shift it over to the defense and the defense improved year over year.
18:46Anna Ramon proved everything about the Colts defense. At least a little bit from 24 to 25 past defense went from 23rd to 19th run.
18:54Defense went from 10th, which was already really good to ninth, a little bit better and points allowed in 2024.
19:00They were 24th in points allowed and they elevated that again, just a little bit to 21st.
19:05All of those numbers are good enough. 19th, ninth and 21st.
19:08When you have an offense as powerful as the one we just described for the Colts, if that keeps working and that
19:15defense holds up, that's all you need to do folks.
19:18You will be at the game's highest stage. And I think they would have been.
19:23And I think Colts fans think the same thing.
19:26And I think the rest of the AFC probably breathed a big sigh of relief when it happened.
19:31Not because they wanted to see DJ get injured.
19:34That's not what I'm saying. But look, if your rivals having a problem, it's not your problem anymore.
19:39You can keep going. So Colts fans again are looking for Daniel Jones to be back fully healthy.
19:45We'll see whether that's in the first part of the season.
19:48Even if he starts week one, he probably won't be fully healthy.
19:52And then if he rounds into form and they start playing anywhere near this level on offense again by midseason, Colts are right back in it.
20:00Defensively speaking, I could see the vision they were trying to go for before the sauce injury.
20:05And the reason why they traded for sauce is because he's a perfect fit for what they wanted.
20:11Right. Even with their two best corners getting banged up.
20:14And again, sauce only played four games for them.
20:17They were still eighth in man rate. They would have been a lot higher than that if they had both their guys.
20:23And you could argue it's the best, not the best might not even be the best in their own division.
20:30Cause thing, they and Lasseter pretty good, but it's at least a top five corner duo in the NFL, probably top three in the NFL.
20:37And if two of the top three are in one division, that's actually kind of insane.
20:42Um, but you know, sauce and charm areas together.
20:45Like that's a tough duo to beat when they're allowed to play as much man as they, in theory will be allowed to play.
20:52There was a 50% man rate team on third down, which is crazy high.
20:57It's an incredible amount of faith in your guys to just go out there and win.
21:02Now they also package that with a lot of pressures on third down.
21:06They're a very man pressure heavy team on third down.
21:09But again, that means that you don't really have help.
21:12Cause cover one typically is like, okay, we have four guys playing man coverage.
21:16We have a single high safety. We have one whole zone defender in the intermediate or like low area.
21:22So you're going to have a zone helper. Even if you're in man coverage, if you're bringing pressure with man, nobody has any help.
21:29Like anywhere you have like one post safety as your, Oh shit button on the back end.
21:35But like, you don't have any zone help in the intermediate or low area.
21:39If you're bringing man pressures and this team brought man pressures to a crazy high degree on third down because they have
21:46guys that they trust at least at the corner position.
21:49The problem they're going to run into this year specifically is I don't trust their linebackers to cover, which we'll get to,
21:56but if they can find a way to protect their linebackers, specifically from bad matchups against receiving backs or tight ends, you
22:02know, this is a very nickel heavy team last year.
22:05They played nickel into everything, including tight end heavy sets, you know?
22:09So if Bynum is going to be like our tight end eraser, and if we have to play dime against the, you
22:16know, Christian McCaffrey's of the world instead of nickel, because we don't think that Akeem Davis Gaither can do it.
22:22Spoiler alert, Akeem Davis Gaither can't do that at all.
22:25Like he cannot cover in space. And even CJ Allen, I don't think CJ Allen can cover in space either.
22:31Like I think they have two linebackers that I don't feel good about in man, but if we can protect them by
22:38using DBs to do those jobs, and we can leverage the fact that we have one of the three to four best
22:45corner duos in the NFL, there's a way for this defense to really, really work, especially on third down.
22:51First down, more of a zone team, specifically a zone pressure team.
22:54Second down was really the only time they looked like quote unquote normal of like, we're just going to rush forward the defensive line.
23:02But third down is like where they did all the fun stuff.
23:05It was blitzes, man coverage, we're better than you, deal with it.
23:09And I think that's really what they want their identity to be more than anything else.
23:14Yeah. Anarumo brought a level of competence. And again, I think adjustment that we'd been asking for in the Colts defense for a long time.
23:22And I think it will get even better. It did during his previous stop.
23:26Again, as his defense matured, guys understood it better.
23:29That happens on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, but we've seen it happen with Anarumo before.
23:35So again, more guys are going to have a better understanding.
23:38Hopefully they have a fully healthy roster and can play it the way that they want to.
23:44And if they do, we could see those numbers creep up.
23:47I don't expect huge jumps. I'm not expecting 10 point jumps in any of those rankings, but we could see two or
23:54three point jumps in all of them. And if they were that, and again, the offense is clicking, this is going to
24:01be a very complimentary football team and a very tough out.
24:04The one issue I have with them though, and it's why they might only jump a few spots, not a lot of
24:11spots is I'm still not super high on the defensive line.
24:14Right. And it's not that they're bad. No, it's just, they haven't lived up to what they've invested into it.
24:20Right. For a long time, it felt like Buckner was, was the only one they could really rely on.
24:26And he was fighting a back injury last year.
24:29Eventually ended this season at a bar. All right.
24:32He's been a contributor, but considering how athletic he is, hasn't really turned into the kind of X factor.
24:38They hoped he could be when they drafted a, I think he was like a 10 O R a S guy.
24:44And we're like, we're going to coach him into being a monster.
24:48He's going to be our Aaron Donald. He's, he's not Aaron Donald.
24:51Uh, not even close. You know, lot two is solid, but not spectacular yet.
24:56We'll see. He's taking steps in the right direction.
24:59He's improving, which is a good sign, but he is not, uh, he is not the guy yet.
25:04And we get a lot of questions, uh, from Colts fans about his lot to the guy.
25:09He's a guy and he's getting better. He got a lot better between year one and year two.
25:15He had a lot more quality wins. He had a lot more wins in general.
25:19Like if you watch the tape, the space in between his impact decreased.
25:23That's a very good sign for a player in his sophomore season in terms of figuring it out, figuring out who he's
25:30going against rushing with a plan more often. And he is improving, but is he a guy that is going to be
25:37a focal point of an offense to stop? Not yet.
25:40Yeah, that was Buckner. Buckner was the only one you ever really had to plan for.
25:45And again, big man with a back injury. It's not great.
25:48Right. to himolo, Al is a rookie. There was some contributions here and there, but they were few and far between, um, you know, Quiddy pay never.
25:57It's like, how many first round picks have they invested in this defensive line?
26:01And the only one that's really been the guy has been Buckner, but Buckner was the guy before they even got him.
26:08They traded a first round or four. Yeah. But all of like their homegrown high round picks just haven't, I don't know.
26:15Haven't, haven't been difference maker, like true difference makers yet.
26:18And that's been disappointing because I've liked a lot of them.
26:21I really have. Um, but that's why, you know, you're looking at them on second down, which is again, first down, very zone blitz heavy.
26:29Third down, very man pressure heavy. Second down was the one down where they're like, we're just going to rush with four.
26:36We're going to be normal. And they were bad.
26:38They were bad at it, right? If you're looking at pressure rate on true dropbacks with a four man rush, no simulated
26:45pressures, just straight for defensive linemen doing their job.
26:48They were 21st. They were 16th with five rushers.
26:51So when they brought pressure, whether it was his own pressure or a man pressure, they were an average pass rush, but
26:57they couldn't be an average pass rush without bringing five.
27:00They couldn't do it with four. So as a result, their pressure rate on second down was 23rd.
27:06They allowed the most explosive passes on second down in the league by a lot.
27:11They were at 49 second place, which is really 31st place.
27:14It was 38. So, you know, it's, it was a good unit on first down.
27:19It was a good unit on third down, but when they were in second down and they tried to do anything other
27:25than just bringing pressure, they couldn't do it. They couldn't play normal defense.
27:29So that's the one thing that, that Lou has to figure out this year.
27:34And like he tried, he tried, like the fact that they were so aggressive on first and third down showed that he knew what he was working with.
27:42Right. Um, but he's got to figure it out this year of like, we can't just be Brian Flores 2.0 because we're
27:49not as good at that as the Vikings are.
27:52Yeah. Some adjustment was welcome. I'm sure it was to Colts fans as well, because you know, years of just going, well,
27:59we're just going to line them up and you know what we're doing.
28:03And we're just going to try and out athlete you.
28:06And to your point, it, it hasn't landed. It reminds me a little bit of places like Kansas city and green Bay
28:13where they've invested in their defensive line, oftentimes in high picks multiple times, not just one shot.
28:18Oh, he'll fix it. But outside of guys that they've acquired and trade or the one guy, they've not been able to
28:25surround that guy with enough help to make the overall defensive line picture better without creative pressures, extra guys, whatever else it
28:31is to, to make them better when they just kind of line it up.
28:36Those guys haven't paid off. And Indianapolis is one of those places as well.
28:40Hi alternate timeline, Brett here before we get to all the 2026 stuff.
28:44If you've liked a lot of the data that we brought up so far, we have companion infographics for every single team,
28:51including the one we're talking about today with over 15,000 total data points that we have collected throughout this summer.
28:57Each team gets its own companion infographic, which is roughly about 20 pages long.
29:01It has all the data on this team. You can think of whether it's alignment data, personnel data, cap allocation, coverage data
29:08broken out by down and distance blitz data. I mean, basically anything you can think of, we've got it.
29:14So if you want access to that, you can find that down at the link in the description below or at the QR code on the screen reminder.
29:22We also have bonus episodes that go live every single Friday over on Patreon recapping every single division.
29:28We're going to pick division winners, MVPs, rookies of the year, all that stuff.
29:32So if you want bonus episodes, plus more data that you could probably handle, that is over on the Patreon.
29:38Thank you once again to all of our patrons that have made, honestly, this series possible to make in the first place.
29:45We could not have paid the people who help us make it without your guys' financial support.
29:51So thank you to our patrons. Thank you to all of our executive producers on Patreon.
29:55Their names are on screen right now. They have been OG supporters of us and made so much in our lives possible
30:02while we try to chase this dream. So thank you.
30:05Thank you. Thank you. And with that, let's get back to the show.
30:09All right. 2026 talk. Now 2025 reminiscing is over largely the same power structure here in Indianapolis.
30:15And why wouldn't it be? They were clearly a very good team before injuries, you know, took their toll.
30:20I think ownership is confident in what this group is and confident in the direction they were going in.
30:26They're just hoping that they're healthier. Health would be a big part of this at the top.
30:31Like you said, general manager, Chris Ballard, who has seemed to be on shaky ground because for years he imported retreads at quarterback.
30:39And everybody said, look, man, you're just, you're going to have to bite the bullets.
30:43You're going to have to draft one. He did.
30:46And it failed spectacularly. And this is the irony to me is he went right back to what he did.
30:52He was doing before. It just worked. He finally hit, finally worked.
30:56He got DJ and he was like, see, see, I told you, we just needed to find the right veteran.
31:02And in his case, it was the right connection between Steichen and DJ and offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter.
31:08All of those guys were absolutely vibing for the first 10 weeks of the season.
31:12Again, best offense in the league, pretty much bar none in a lot of the stats we were talking about.
31:19And they looked like it. This is where film matches with analytics.
31:22So I could see Ballard sitting back with his feet up on the desk going, yep.
31:27Told you just had to find the right guy.
31:30Only took seven years. Yeah. Never wrong. Just early and takes five swings, but you know, that's the way it goes.
31:36And again, the NFL is a meritocracy. If you're winning, nobody really cares how you do it.
31:42And this combination worked incredibly well when DJ was upright and then he wasn't.
31:46And it fell off. I think importing defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo was a very good choice after he moved on from the Bengals.
31:53He did bring, I would say more competence, more adjustment, more versatility to this defense.
31:58They had their lackings and they are going to have to overcome them.
32:02But to me, it didn't feel the same on film.
32:05When I had to watch the Colts defense under the previous defensive coordinator, I dreaded it.
32:10It was not a fun assignment under Anarumo. At least you could say like, Hey, he tried like, look, he, he knew that wasn't going to work.
32:18So he brought this, the guys didn't get it done or whatever.
32:22They still got burned, but at least he gave it a shot.
32:25And again, I think more of that's going to work in year two than worked in year one.
32:31Special teams coordinator is Brian Mason. In terms of assistant coaches on this team, longtime offensive line coach, Tony Sperano Jr.
32:37Again, this is a very good frontline offensive line.
32:40The first five in this offensive line are very good and they play well within this system.
32:45Sperano has been at multiple stops around the NFL.
32:48He brings that experience to this line and it is a combination again of coaching and talent that works very, very well.
32:55The past game coordinators, Alex Tanney played nine years in the NFL.
32:59I did not realize Alex Tanney played nine years.
33:01I would have, I would have said six or seven.
33:05Interestingly enough, he came out of division three Monmouth.
33:07There are not many division three players that ever make the NFL, even make a roster.
33:12I'm not even sure they still have a team.
33:15Do they? I do believe they do have a team.
33:18I don't know if they're still in division three, but after playing nine years coming out of division three, which is wildly
33:25impressive, he's already been coaching for six, the last three of them with the Colts.
33:30So again, when we're talking about that incredibly aggressive pass game, Alex Tanney is part of coordinating that wide receivers coach, Reggie
33:36Wayne, a name very familiar to Colts fans, defensive line coach.
33:40I want to talk about for just a second.
33:42Marion hobby was coaching in the college ranks at Tennessee last year.
33:46Now he wasn't specifically a defensive line coach. He was a defensive analyst, more overarching, but defensive line is his specialty.
33:53So he was working with guys like Joshua Josephs and Tyree West, who got drafted this year.
33:58Now he gets to guide the rapidly improving lot to, to him all a while, newcomer, Michael Clemens, who never really panned
34:05out with the jets, but we were really excited about to your point before he got drafted.
34:10So he's going to be able to take everything he learned previously when he was with the Bengals coaching defensive line, when
34:17he was at Tennessee and hopefully bring that to Lou and Arumas defense and answer the one question you have or help
34:23them answer the one question you have about their defense, which is look, the defensive lines just got to get a little bit better.
34:31Side note. I was thinking of Hofstra. Hofstra discontinued football.
34:34I was like, I, one of them did. Was that Wayne Corbett?
34:38Is Wayne Corbett Marcus Colston, Marcus Colston. Okay. Where's Corbett?
34:41Yeah. Was it Hofstra? Oh, maybe hold on. All right.
34:44Sounds like a through the magic of editing. I'm Googling this.
34:47Hold on. Yeah. Hold on. Yeah. He was Hofstra.
34:50Nailed it. Guys naming dudes right in the middle of a random podcast about the Colts, not the jets.
34:56So they're not just one, but two receivers out of Hofstra that made a ring of honor.
35:01How about that? Incredible. A couple other assistant coaches to hit.
35:04One is James Betcher, the linebacker coach. And I bring him up because he is no relation to Bryce Betcher, who we're
35:11going to talk about different spelling, but very interesting that your coach and your player that you drafted in the same room are both named Betcher.
35:19And of course the assistant linebacker coach can't not name him.
35:23Cato June Colts. Great. Great. Helping out future Colts linebackers in Indianapolis.
35:26Yeah. The 2016 is well represented on this staff.
35:29I'll tell you that much. All right. Let's talk about something old EJ.
35:33And I don't just mean this bourbon. I was going to say the bourbon in your glass.
35:38Cause that's a little bit old. Yes. As always, we do have Woodinville in the glass.
35:43This is a nine year, which is the, is the older moments.
35:47Yeah. At the moment is their oldest bourbon. They are coming out with a tenure this year, which is the same bourbon.
35:54It's just, they've just been hanging out an extra year.
35:57Uh, it's personally one of my favorites that they make.
36:00And yet still pales in comparison to the age of one Philip Rivers, who headlines or free agency recap came out of retirement after five years, I think.
36:08Cause he was up for the hall of fame and was like, nah, fuck that.
36:13I'm going to go play like five games for the Indianapolis Colts.
36:17Just loves football, man. You know, cam literally off the couch.
36:20He was coaching high school football in Alabama, finished his season.
36:24It was like, all right, let's, let's go crank this up against the Seattle Seahawks.
36:28I know. And actually gave him a game too.
36:31I thought he was going to get annihilated in that game.
36:34I was like, this is going to be a good idea for about five minutes, Phil.
36:39And he held them in that game until about three minutes left in the fourth quarter.
36:44And I thought, okay, it wasn't pretty because it was not pretty, but you managed to make it happen.
36:50And so, uh, you know, here's to old age and guile for sure.
36:54I mean, when you get the ball out in 1.4 seconds, even the Seahawks can't hit you, which by the way, going
37:01back to the JT discussion, that was a big reason why they became a first down run team.
37:06Nobody was scared of them throwing a, a, a deep ball, you know, 25 yards down the field of Phillip rivers in the game.
37:14It just wasn't going to happen. So if you can't do the normal first down stuff that you do with Daniel Jones,
37:21with Phillip rivers, you're going to run the ball instead.
37:24They became a very screen heavy team. They became a very, not even quick game heavy.
37:29Like they were just quick. Yeah. Quick game only.
37:31Right. So it's like Alec Pierce went, went back to doing cardio.
37:35Essentially poor guy, like 10 weeks of real football.
37:38Yeah. Went back to running Alex Pierce in the first 10 weeks.
37:41Oh, Alex Pierce. After that, you see him in the dungeons with the chains on.
37:46Like I had it, I had it. I was right there.
37:49I really had it. He's been in the NFL for like four years and had 10 real weeks to his career, but
37:56boy, what a 10 weeks they were. EJ. But yeah, you know, the Phillip rivers offense obviously was not going to be the same as DJ.
38:04And it just, it, it was fun. Like it was cool to see Phil back in the league.
38:10I guess he'll go in the hall of fame in another five years.
38:14I guess, you know, is what it is. Jermaine Pratt also gone.
38:18Kenny Moore, longtime Colt, currently a free agent. Neville Gallimore, gone.
38:21Nick cross, gone. Samson, Epikam, gone. Amir Abdullah, still going.
38:24I know special teams. Uh, extraordinaire. Amir Abdullah, age 33, still gone.
38:28Zaire Franklin is now with the Packers and Quiddie pay the aforementioned.
38:31I don't think I'd call him a bust disappointment.
38:34I think it's better word for it. Uh, he is now a Raider.
38:38And then, uh, Michael Pittman jr. They traded to the Steelers and Braden Smith somehow ended up on the Texans for 10
38:45million, way less money than I thought he would get.
38:48I was going to say, lucky you. That's the, somehow.
38:51We already talked about Michael Pittman jr. As we've made our run through the AFC North.
38:56And I, we both think he's going to be a very good piece for the Steelers.
39:01A lot of these other names, longtime Colts, uh, you know, who have some football left in them necessarily, but, uh, you
39:08know, you do need to move on in the NFL.
39:11There is no way to keep a team together for four years, five years, six years.
39:16And the Colts have done as good a job at keeping a core together as just about anybody in the NFL, but
39:22it is, uh, inescapable with a salary cap and age.
39:26It is a young man's game and you are going to have to move on some from some franchise cornerstones.
39:32And they're just, again, upgrading. We're going to talk about the other ways they've done that in terms of the money that
39:39they had to resign their own players. Daniel Jones, gets the transition tag, which is worth 44 million bucks.
39:44Mo Alley Cox, uh, again, 33 years old, not a spring chicken by any stretch.
39:49They get a good deal on him considering his production at 2.6 million.
39:53Alec Pierce was the big spender piece outside of quarterback 28 and a half million.
39:58Well-deserved again, you saw what is true potential was in those first 10 weeks with DJ throwing those deep balls down the
40:04field, across the middle, his speed, which again has been used largely for cardio for a lot of his career was now
40:11paying it off in huge chunks, keeping this offense moving time after time.
40:15Well-deserved contract there. And then, uh, you highlighted Laquan Treadwell because at 31, still in the league, only making $1.4 million, only played like 3.4% of the snaps.
40:24But man, if you're still in the NFL 10 years later or eight years later, you're doing a really good job.
40:30We're talking about a first round pick here who has been in 11 seasons, by the way, 11 seasons.
40:36That's a successful career. So he got drafted when he was 20.
40:40Yeah. It's 2016. Cause remember he was in that old Ms.
40:43Uh, team with like tonsil. Yeah. Evan Ingram, the one where like they were paying everybody before they could pay everybody.
40:50Um, who is it? Robert Kim D. Jay. Like they were a super loaded team.
40:54Yeah. Again, cause they were paying people. Uh, but he was one of them and I think they had like three or four first round picks.
41:02And again, we're saying 11 seasons here. That's a successful career.
41:06Even if he didn't, you know, turn into what we thought he'd be as a first rounder, but in those 11 years,
41:12Vikings, Falcons, Jags, Pats, Cardinals, Seahawks, Ravens, now Colts.
41:15Like he's just staying employed through special teams. And I'll tell you what, I, I love to see a guy who, you
41:22know, maybe doesn't become what we think, but still, you know, embraces the role and embraces the work that one has to
41:29do to just stay in the NFL for 11 years.
41:32You know, Amir Abdullah was like that as well.
41:35You know, he's not there now, but Amir Abdullah came out.
41:38I think it was 2014, 2015, a running back out of Nebraska.
41:42Yep. Right. Started out in Detroit. He was like a passing down back.
41:46And again, you know, he had in his youth, he had a couple of nice years, but like he just latched on
41:53on special teams and just stayed in the league forever.
41:56Right. Like the Matthew Slater route. And I always respect when, uh, cause I'm pretty sure Abdul was the second round pick.
42:02I always respect when a highly drafted guy doesn't just pack it in when it doesn't work out the way they think it will.
42:10And they do whatever they can to scratch and claw and fight for a roster spot every year, 11 years in.
42:16It's just awesome. Yeah. It's a great story. And we see it around a league and not only from highly drafted guys,
42:23but UDFAs as well, like coming in and saying, Hey, I, you know, I was the guy.
42:28That's the thing is when you go through that filter of talent from college, uh, into the pros.
42:34And there's eight or 10,000 eligible guys every year coming out of college.
42:38And you're talking about 250 get drafted and maybe another 250 UDFAs make the league.
42:42You're talking about 500 guys. It's the cream of the crop.
42:46They're all going to be all conference. They're all going to be, you know, multiple award winners.
42:51They're all going to be their school's leading tackler or leading rusher or whatever else.
42:56And then it is very humbling to get to the NFL and realize I might be bouncing up and down, depending on
43:02whether they need me that week between the practice squad.
43:06And if so, it's purely going to be on special teams.
43:09And that is my job. Now, if I want to have a job at this level, that's going to be the one.
43:16And it, you do have to check your ego at the door, especially when you have been literally the guy for your
43:22entire life, probably since, you know, peewee football. And it is, it's a massive adjustment for young guys to make.
43:29And when guys do it and embrace it, and like you said, just say, Hey, this is how I'm going to make my living in the NFL.
43:37And I'm going to do it for as long as I can.
43:41It's really, really cool to see. He's the second leading receiver in Illinois high school prep history, which has a lot of
43:47guys that have come out of it. He was the offensive player of the year and an all state pick.
43:54On defense in one season, it's 75 catches for 1400 yards and 18 touchdowns and 45 tackles with 10 for loss and eight sacks on defense.
44:02Like you were the dude. Yeah. Right. Sure. Then you go to the sec, your sec freshman of the year, you're all
44:08American in the sec, like the peak Saban Bama years.
44:11And then it just doesn't work out in the end.
44:14Like that tells you like how hard it is to make it in the NFL.
44:19If that fucking guy couldn't like become an all-star.
44:22It's crazy. I love it though, because he's such a huge, he gets to the NFL.
44:27They're like, well, you're going to have to learn how to tackle.
44:31And he's like, learn how to tackle coach. I had eight sacks my senior year.
44:35Like I'll state, I'm good to go. uh, but again, tremendous level of athleticism.
44:39And, uh, we've seen some folks in the news this week as of recording it, it's, you know, late July saying, Oh
44:46yeah, there's a bunch of really moderate athletes or, you know, middling athletes in the NFL.
44:51I could be better than them. I'm just like, Oh, that Jake Paul quote.
44:55I was like, buddy. No, not, not a thing.
44:58You're not talking about middling athletes. You're talking about cream of the crop, the best that have been pretty much along their entire path.
45:06And it's still lots of them still don't make it.
45:09It is incredibly difficult to stick in the NFL.
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46:23He just doesn't have any self respect. Cause he, it's bait and he knows it's bait.
46:28Sure. But I was like, you just, you don't, it's like, are you happy with your life?
46:33This is your job to go out and just say this stir stuff up.
46:37Are you, are you happy doing this? Do you not respect yourself at all?
46:41I think he's happy with the paycheck. We'll, we'll see about the rest.
46:45Yeah. Anyway, uh, speaking of guys who get giant paychecks, Akeem Davis, Gaither 2.7 million for some reason.
46:51Good work. Michael Clements. You can get it for sure.
46:54Michael Clements, about 5.6, 5.7 million, uh, coming over from the jets.
46:58Colby wooden came over from the Packers for about 1.1 and Arden key.
47:02Still going again, age 30. A lot of these guys came up when I was like really taking like draft grades or draft scouting seriously.
47:09Yeah. And, uh, you know, to see them still be in the league 10, 11, 12 years later, it's, uh, it's, it's cool.
47:17Now they're the old people. They're the guys that have been there and done that.
47:21The wise old vets. Colby wooden, uh, not a wise old vet at 26 has played some good football, played over 50%
47:28of the snaps for the Packers and is a name.
47:31To watch as again, a guy that not necessarily is going to tilt the scales in your favor on the defensive line,
47:38but you need down eaters in the NFL on the defensive line.
47:41You have to rotate. And Colby wooden was good.
47:44I would say above average in that role for the Packers.
47:48And I think he could be a contributor for the Colts again in that role.
47:52And it's necessary. It's not necessarily the one that's going to get you all the highlights or the biggest check on the
47:59team, but you have to have guys that could come in and play competently along the defensive line.
48:05And I think Colby wooden can slot right into one of those roles.
48:09Colts fans, before we get into the draft section, I need you to understand.
48:13I am not saying any of this with like Texans Homer goggles on.
48:17Like you can go back and listen to both before the draft and the night of the draft.
48:22When some of these picks came off the board, I just flat out didn't like this draft.
48:28And it's, it has nothing to do with team affiliation.
48:31I just don't like this class. I think they missed value on several of these picks.
48:36I just see a lot of these players very differently than they do, especially considering the type of defense that they're going to be running this year.
48:44I'm like, you trapped that guy for that. It just doesn't make any sense to me.
48:49I just don't like this draft. Yeah. Sometimes when doing the kind of draft work that we do, we find GMs that
48:56we are spiritually aligned with who pick a lot of the players that we really like or pick them up in UDFA or any other number of ways.
49:04And then the opposite is also true on the other side of the coin.
49:09We find GMs where we do not see players like they see players, their evaluation and their standards are very different than ours.
49:16It doesn't mean that we're right or they are.
49:19Usually we both end up being wrong more than 50% of the time, because that is draft work in a nutshell, but
49:25we're going to do draft a little bit differently for the Colts.
49:29I'm just going to run through a round and pick names, obviously you know what they are and where they came from.
49:36And then Brett's going to give his thoughts overall again, to give a better sort of holistic picture of why he didn't
49:43like the class necessarily, because when you're talking about value, it's that classic question of, Oh, but you could have had this here or there.
49:50So, and then I'll give my thoughts after that.
49:53But typically we go through pick by pick this time.
49:56We're going to do kind of the whole lot.
49:59So starting in the second round, again, no first round pick because of the sauce trade at pick 53, CJ Allen, the
50:06linebacker from Georgia in the third round at pick 78, they get AJ Halsey, the safety from LSU.
50:11So starting off sec heavy here, and they stay there in the fourth round at one 13 with Jalen farmer, the guard from Kentucky.
50:19First time out of the sec is their second fourth round pick at one 35.
50:23One of my favorites in this class, Bryce Boettcher, the linebacker from Oregon in the fifth round at one 56, they get George Gumbs, jr.
50:31The edge of out of Florida in the sixth round at two 14, Caden Curry, the edge out of Ohio state.
50:37And then they had two seventh round picks 237.
50:40They get Seth McGowan, the running back out of Kentucky.
50:43And then two 54 Dion Burks, the wide receiver from Oklahoma.
50:47I'll start with Alan here. He is stiff. He's not a great athlete, super smart, like incredibly smart, great in the room.
50:53He's stiff. And for a team that wants to play as much man coverage as they do, he has to be protected.
51:00If you put him against, you know, not even a CMC, if you put them against, who's like an average receiving back,
51:07I fuck, he didn't have to go against like Woody Marks in zone division.
51:11No way, no way he would not keep up.
51:14Let alone if it's like B. John, Jameer Gibbs, like he just can't match those kinds of athletes at running back.
51:20And if you're drafting a linebacker, darn near top 50, you got to be able to do that.
51:26Like you, you have to be able to be isolated in space and hold up, especially if you're going to play for
51:33a defense that is this man heavy. You can't be the guy that has to be protected because they already have the guy that has to be protected.
51:41It's a team. Dave's Gaither. He can't fucking cover either.
51:45So somebody has to cover running backs, which is why I think the AJ Halsey pick, even though it's like early for
51:51me, for him as well, my role that I project for him is a five, 11, 215 pound safety is probably like
51:58a dime linebacker that covers running backs because I think he could do it better than CJ Allen could.
52:04And so, you know, if we go back to what I said earlier, where it's like, yeah, their nickels kind of shaky
52:11against, you know, 11 personnel heavy teams with a back that can run routes and catch.
52:16They might have to play dime against 11 personnel teams.
52:19Okay. The Halsey pick makes sense there. But again, you're having to pick that because your second round pick can't be trusted in man.
52:26So I'm like, is the, is the benefits that he's going to bring to your run defense worth that hassle to me?
52:33Not necessarily considering the other linebackers that were on the board that I thought could cover and can move in space better.
52:40And then, you know, Jalen Farmer, I actually liked that pick a lot better.
52:44I like that pick, but Gumbs and Curry, again, they're not going to solve their pass rush issues, which they still have.
52:51McGowan's fine. You know, it was like a, a late round, you know, rotational running back that can also play special teams.
52:58And then Dion Burks, weirdly, the best value to me was Dion Burks, who was their last pick.
53:03I could have swapped him for Gumbs and been ecstatic about it.
53:07But again, you're trading your first rounder for a corner who is expensive.
53:11Your second rounder wasn't the best linebacker on the board.
53:14Your third rounders best use is to take your linebacker from the second round off the field.
53:19And now we're hoping that a three pack of Jalen Farmer, Bryce Becher, and Dion Burks outperform their value so much that it makes up for those.
53:27I just don't like the approach. I don't. And again, it's a, it's a very good team.
53:33Very, very good team. But these are the kinds of drafts that you look back on, kind of similar to like the
53:39Niners, where it's like they have a really, really good core of teams.
53:43And then they just like piss away two drafts in a row.
53:47And we wonder why they don't have any depth.
53:50Like this is the kind of draft that makes me worried about that.
53:54Yeah. I don't think it's pissed away, but in terms of when they picked who they picked, I didn't like it.
54:00CJ Allen was one of the most polarizing players in this draft.
54:04For me. Again, when I start my draft lists, which is now in the summer, I'm looking at preseason, all American lists.
54:11I'm looking at Bruce Feldman's freak list. I'm looking at all conference, you know, preseason, all conference lists just to get names and populate the positions.
54:19And from that point, early on and through the early part of the season, CJ Allen was thought to be one of the top linebackers.
54:27And I try not to watch the top guys first.
54:30That was a bit of a, I don't want to say a mistake, but it was a detriment to CJ Allen because
54:36I waited until I was five or six linebackers in.
54:39And I watched some guys who I was more excited about who were thought of as lower round picks.
54:45And then I watched CJ Allen. I was like, okay, this is the top guy.
54:50This is one of the top guys. Didn't see it.
54:53Saw the same thing you do. Stiff, lacks coverage in the modern NFL.
54:57Again, very good college linebacker, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be a very good pro linebacker.
55:03And I'm not saying he won't be, but in terms of where they picked him, basically top 52nd round, when they are
55:10a linebacker, they have needs at linebacker. Let's put it that way, which is why they picked one.
55:15He would not have been my pick. And I actually like Boettcher better.
55:19I had him rated more highly, even though he was picked much later.
55:23And he is better in coverage as a guy that was drafted in baseball and a center fielder, you know, gold glove
55:30in college, you know, Boettcher, I think is a better fit.
55:33He's, he's bigger. He's faster. I think he's more fluid.
55:36He's not the most fluid, but I think he has a better chance to get on the field in a more diverse set of roles than Allen does.
55:45And you picked Allen at 53. So in terms of Allen, where they picked him and his translation from, again, the college
55:52game to the pro game, different set of requirements for linebackers.
55:55I didn't like it. Halsey. I liked as an athlete.
55:58And I think, yeah, he translates better to almost a, you know, it's a three safety defense, whatever you want to call it.
56:05Dimebacker, like going forward. I didn't like him that much in past coverage.
56:09I really liked him as a terror against the run, either from deeper or up near the line of scrimmage.
56:16I thought he had both of those skill sets within his ability case.
56:20And at 78, I don't really have an issue with it.
56:23I can see why they did it. Again, there were some other safeties that I thought were more versatile, but if you're
56:30looking for more of that stuff, a tight end in the five to seven yard box and stay with running backs, hit
56:37folks and give us some run stopping ability from lighter defenses, three safety defenses.
56:41I could see the Halsey fit farmer. I liked as a pick.
56:45He was my, one of my favorites of the Kentucky lineman.
56:48There was a couple that went in this draft, Bryce Betcher.
56:51I love, I thought he was a really good value in the fourth round.
56:56Um, George Gumbs jr. Was an interesting player. Uh, when you watch his early tape, nothing, I didn't like it at all.
57:02Yeah. Some of his later tape, the light started to come on and it was fewer and farther between.
57:08Again, a little bit like Latu, uh, you know, in the pros we said, Hey, he didn't have as many plays that we liked in college.
57:16Latu was all highlight plays. Um, Gumbs just barely started to scratch that surface right near the end of this year.
57:23And there were a couple of games with a couple of plays where you're like, Oh, if he could hit that, like
57:29that's his potential, but he didn't for most of his career.
57:33So you have to deal with that as a coaching staff could end up being a diamond in the rough.
57:39They get in the fifth round. Caden Curry, the edge they got in the sixth round, never saw it with him.
57:46Didn't, didn't see the flashes. Didn't, didn't really see the value.
57:49I thought, you know, high motor guy, but, but that's it.
57:52That's all you're getting. And, and in the sixth round, that's appropriate value.
57:56I'm not going to, I'm not going to kill him about a six round pick.
58:01Seth McGowan, much more talented runner than the seventh round.
58:04This was not a great running back class. He had off the field issues early in his career that when I talked
58:11to people who were close to him and played with him at Kentucky, they didn't see any of that.
58:17Once he got to Kentucky, he really did turn it around according to them.
58:21So, you know, a bit of a risk. That's why he went in the seventh round.
58:26I think he's got some slashing ability, some explosive ability.
58:29I think he's pretty good in the past game as well.
58:32So as that sort of third down back screen catching guy that can, you know, add to your offense through.
58:38Yeah. Let me ask you, did you like him better than DJ Giddens the year before?
58:43Cause I was a huge Giddens guy. Again, also had some off the field stuff, but I was huge Giddens.
58:50I don't think I liked him better, but I, I see their skillset as pretty similar.
58:55I actually like McGowan's inline ability from a run set, especially between tackles, maybe even a little bit better, but they were on the same tier for me.
59:03They're same type of player to me. So great value in the seventh.
59:07And then Dion Burks was another polarizing player. Again, CJ Allen was that for the linebackers.
59:12Dion Burks started off a lot of people talking about Dion Burks and how he was explosive and how he's really had to an offense.
59:20I watched him fairly early in the process. I would say within the first third of the 35 ish receivers that I watched.
59:27And as I kept watching receivers, Dion Burks just didn't separate and didn't separate from the receivers.
59:32And he kind of slid down and slid down and slid down.
59:36By the time I was done, I think he was my 28th ranked wide receiver.
59:40And people said, Oh, you're nuts. He's better than that.
59:43And I was like, tell me, tell me what he does.
59:47That's great. Right. That really separates. Is he a good receiver?
59:50Yeah. Is he going to play in a league?
59:53He is. Would I go out of my way to choose him in, in the higher rounds?
59:58You said you'd take him in like the fifth.
60:01That would have been maybe my starting range for him, but I would have been much more comfortable where he eventually ended up in the sixth or seventh.
60:10So I'm not going to kill him for that pick.
60:13And do I think it's a good value? Yeah, I do think he is a capable receiver who can play in the NFL.
60:20He's going to struggle again, to our point earlier about the special team discussion.
60:24He's going to have to play special teams. If you get drafted in the seventh round as a wide receiver, they're not
60:31expecting to slot you into the top line offense.
60:34Anytime soon, you're going to have to prove your value and earn your roster spot on special teams.
60:39I think Burks can do it. He's a very good athlete, but like I was not surprised at all that he went in the seventh round.
60:47I know a lot of people were like, we're almost done with the draft.
60:52Dion Burks is still on the board. And I was like, yeah, I thought of that as appropriate value.
60:57So top to bottom, like I like farmer. I really like better.
61:01Gums is a wild card could hit, could not, but that's a, that is literally a lottery ticket.
61:07Caden Curry doesn't move the needle for me. McGowan seems like a nice value.
61:11Burks, same thing, nice value, but you're talking about fifth and sixth and seventh round picks at this point.
61:17You're just hoping. Okay. Like some of them could hit when I look back at the summary of that class and I
61:24go, what's the, what's the probability that a majority of those guys hit?
61:28Or we look back, like you said in two or three years and go, man, what a great class, what a tremendous
61:34amount of value they pulled out of that draft.
61:37I don't, I don't think so. Extremely, extremely low percentage chance.
61:41So, you know, again, they have top line talent.
61:43It's a good team, but this is the kind of draft that to me costs you money later because you have to spend more money.
61:51You have to go out and buy expensive free agents to, to fill holes that you didn't fill in the draft.
61:57Even just expensive depth. Right. It's just this, this kind of draft costs you money in a few years.
62:03I really do believe that. On that positive note, Colts fans, if you want to buy some merch, want to buy our
62:10shit now that we buttered you up. Hell of a transition.
62:13You can go to homage. You can find Colts gear.
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62:51So it's a good way to support the show, uh, indirectly.
62:54All right, let's make them like us again. Can we ceiling and floor?
62:58Oh, we can, we can. My ceiling is monstrous on this one.
63:02Cause I think it's what they were heading for last year before they got hurt.
63:06It's like, I wanted to say 14. I'm going to be more reasonable and say 13, but it's that's first seed.
63:13In the AFC. Yeah. Like if you're winning 13 games or 14 games, you're the number one team in the conference.
63:19Most likely I should say. Sometimes there's a 15 win team here and there, but I'm, I'm going to go in that range 13 to be conservative.
63:28But if you had to talk me into 14, it wouldn't take you that long.
63:32And my floor, again, this is assuming health. My floor is 10 because the bottom completely fell out last year and they still won eight.
63:40Yeah. That was with losing their last seven games in a row.
63:44That's kind of hard to do in the NFL.
63:47So I would say my floor is 10 for a healthy Colts team ceiling of 13.
63:51But really the, the expectation is they are challenging for the number one seed in the conference.
63:57I think they could be that good. Yeah. I think they could be that good as well.
64:02I'm a little more conservative in my ceiling, but I'm really close.
64:06I'm at 12. And again, it is a tough thing to win 13 or 14 games.
64:11Do I think they would have done it last year?
64:14I do. I really do. Do I think they'll do it this year?
64:18Even though they've improved in some of the areas that we're worried about or in our most defense will be a little bit better.
64:25Everybody else moves too, right? It's not a static target.
64:28It's not you moving and everybody else staying still.
64:31So I'm going to say 12 wins as a ceiling, but an absolute threat to take the title for the AFC and
64:38represent the conference in the Super Bowl. If they stay healthy with those 12 wins, my floor is eight and it's not just Daniel Jones health.
64:46Yes. We're going to assume Daniel Jones health because we all want to see it.
64:50Like we want to see that promise realized through a full season.
64:54There are other areas of this team. So why it could all work with Daniel Jones healthy.
64:59This team was on an absolute tear. If he stays upright, they're easily good enough to make noise in the division, get
65:06a playoff spot and represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
65:09How could fall apart? Well, we talked about it earlier.
65:12Their linebacking core is not great. I love Bryce Betcher, but he's a rookie and that's too much pressure to put on anybody.
65:20The rest of their linebacking core to me is pretty suspect and it is going to get picked on.
65:25So they're going to have to, our Anarum has got his work cut out to try and protect them, pull them off
65:32the field in certain circumstances, replace them with time, do different things so that they don't just get picked apart.
65:38The offensive line is really nice at the top level.
65:41I like their five starters a lot as a unit, but injuries could put them in distress pretty quickly, which is not an uncommon situation in the NFL.
65:50And if Jones goes down for an extended period again, or he doesn't rebound to full health, let's say by mid season, all bets are off.
65:58That's where you could get to the eight wins.
66:01Because this team did look very, very different without him.
66:04They were still tough. They were still plucky, but they weren't really anybody's threat anymore, which is crazy considering how they looked
66:11weeks one through 10, when they really looked pretty unstoppable for, I would say, eight of those 10 weeks.
66:17DJ was cooling off a little bit before he got hurt those last two to three weeks.
66:22He was not on the same tear that he was on the first, but for the first two months, they were absolutely just leveling the field.
66:30They were a bulldozer with nitrous. They just, they were plowing people.
66:33Only team that really kept up was the Rams.
66:36I know. And different conference. And that would have been a very interesting suit.
66:41Bull Rams almost made it there as well. So again, woulda, coulda, shoulda, but this year, again, a 12 win team that
66:47could, could and would be, will be very dangerous if they make the playoffs.
66:52I have no doubt of that. They lost to the Steelers too.
66:55I forgot about that. The Steelers always do that, man.
66:58Tear off the game games against teams. They shouldn't.
67:01Yeah. There's a, before that, you know, they came into that game, uh, seven and one, and the one loss was to
67:08the Rams, but every other game was 33 to eight, uh, you know, 41, 20, 40 to six, 38, 24, 38, 14, like just wasting everybody.
67:16Also a random four point win to the Cardinals somehow.
67:19But other than that, other than that, they were arguably the best team in the sport.
67:24Um, so it's a fun group. I really can't wait to watch him play this year.
67:29I can't wait to watch a healthy Colts offense go against a healthy Texans defense.
67:34To me, that might be best on best, not just in the division, not just in the conference.
67:39It might be the best in the sport. Uh, and we, we didn't get to see that last year because they didn't play till week 13.
67:47So this year we're finally going to get that matchup, uh, Steichen versus the Miko with all of their toys, you know,
67:54full staples on each side should be fun. Honestly, if I was going to go to a game out in Houston, that
68:01would be the one I go to. Hmm. Hmm.
68:03I'm going to think about that. Anyway, uh, speaking of the Texans, are we talking about them tomorrow?
68:09I think we are. I think it's Texans then Jags.
68:12Okay. Well, we'll be back tomorrow with the Texans.
68:15I'm going to have, uh, ideally no more than two existential crises about CJ Stroud in tomorrow's show.
68:20And then after that, we got the Jags and then we are moving on to the NFC South from there.
68:26Reminder. If you want to find a tomorrow's episode on the Texans today, you can find that on buzzer.
68:32Each episode goes live 24 hours early over on buzzer.
68:35Uh, they're our production partner for the series and they've been awesome.
68:39Uh, and then Patreon, we have our Patreon show going live on Friday where we recap the AFC South.
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68:55Reminder. You can also find the infographics every single day on the Patreon.
68:59Uh, I think I'm done with plugs. thank you to all of our sponsors.
69:03Thank you to homage. Thank you to Woodinville. Thank you to buzzer.
69:07And we will see you tomorrow.
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