PodcastFrom Bootleg Football

Falcons fans deserve better.

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 32 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 26, 2026

Published

Wed, August 26, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Michael Penix Jr.Bijan RobinsonDrake LondonKyle PittsBo NixBrian RobinsonC.J. StroudCam WardDarnell MooneyJonathan TaylorJustin FieldsKirk CousinsTyler AllgeierZachariah Branch

Player analysis

Player insights

Bijan Robinson

PositiveUsage9:09

Robinson is a significant talent who elevates the Falcons' rushing offense, though the team still ranked 23rd in rushing EPA per play despite his contributions.

Insight page

PositiveRole48:00

Bijan Robinson is expected to have a strong run game role under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who has a history of successful rushing attacks.

Insight page

Bo Nix

NegativeProjection30:38

Bo Nix receives mixed praise, with the analysts noting his specific effectiveness in late-game situations.

Insight page

Brian Robinson

NegativeValue57:21

Brian Robinson Jr. was acquired by the Falcons on a cheap deal; fantasy drafters should be careful to distinguish him from other players with similar names.

Insight page

C.J. Stroud

NegativeProjection32:53

C.J. Stroud is mentioned in the context of accuracy concerns, though the analysts note he is tied with other struggling passers in certain metrics.

Insight page

Cam Ward

NegativeProjection32:44

Cam Ward is cited as having significant accuracy issues, similar to the concerns raised about Michael Penix Jr.

Insight page

Darnell Mooney

NegativeRole52:48

Darnell Mooney has moved to the Giants; his impact remains to be seen as he returns from injury.

Insight page

Drake London

PositiveProjection26:00

Drake London is considered an elite talent and easily a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL.

Insight page

NegativeUsage81:23

Drake London is expected to return to a primary X-receiver role due to the current roster composition, despite Kirk Cousins' belief that moving him to the slot would better maximize his ability to dictate matchups and avoid being a 'punching bag' on the outside.

Insight page

Jonathan Taylor

PositiveMatchup15:12

Taylor dominated the Falcons' defense with 244 rushing yards, exploiting the team's lack of capable run-defending linebackers in the absence of Divine Diablo.

Insight page

Justin Fields

NegativeProjection30:47

Justin Fields is used as a benchmark for passer rating comparisons, placing him in a similar tier to the Falcons' current quarterback situation.

Insight page

Kirk Cousins

NegativeProjection0:14

The Falcons are in deep trouble at the quarterback position, with the team's outlook feeling uncertain despite the investment in Cousins and the subsequent drafting of Michael Penix Jr.

Insight page

Kyle Pitts

NegativeValue26:56

Kyle Pitts' $17 million valuation is justified by his potential, and the analysts suggest there are worse starting tight end options currently in the league.

Insight page

NegativeUsage84:39

Kyle Pitts is identified as one of the few players on the roster capable of playing the X-receiver role if the team chooses to move Drake London into the slot, though doing so might limit Pitts' own effectiveness.

Insight page

Michael Penix Jr.

NegativeProjection0:14

The selection of Penix Jr. immediately after signing Kirk Cousins creates uncertainty for the Falcons' quarterback situation, with the team's overall outlook appearing precarious.

Insight page

NegativeProjection28:18

Michael Penix Jr. faces significant concerns regarding accuracy and ball placement, which were issues in college and persisted in his limited NFL action. He struggles to elevate the offense and lacks the ability to consistently execute intermediate middle-of-the-field throws.

Insight page

NegativeInjury60:28

Michael Penix Jr. has a well-documented history of injuries, and his health remains a major concern for the Falcons' quarterback situation.

Insight page

Tyler Allgeier

NegativeUsage52:04

Tyler Allgeier has departed for the Cardinals, where he is expected to siphon touchdowns away from other running backs, similar to his role with the Falcons.

Insight page

Zachariah Branch

PositiveBreakout66:55

Zachariah Branch is an explosive, lightning-quick wide receiver who can serve as a vertical slot threat; despite limited usage at Georgia, he remains a high-upside player who can separate and make plays, drawing comparisons to Taylor Gabriel.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,049

0:00The biggest catch-22 in the NFL revolves around the most impactful position in the sport.

0:05If you take a swing on a quarterback and miss, it'll set your team back five years or more.

0:11What's the catch? You have to take a swing.

0:14Damned if you miss, damned if you don't. Atlanta took a swing with Kirk Cousins and immediately took another one on Michael Penix Jr.

0:22The jury is still officially out on that second move, but if we're going off vibes alone from camp in the preseason,

0:29the Falcons are in some deep trouble at the game's premier position.

0:33New coach Kevin Stefanski has to be doing a double-take, coming from a team that had a bunch of quarterbacks, but in reality didn't have one.

0:41All of this makes Atlanta a fascinating study. They have an owner who's willing to spend, a proven head coach, top-tier playmaking

0:48threats, and some fun talents at every level on defense, but you're still left feeling like it all might be for naught.

0:55It's day 22 of the Bootleg Summer Series, and we're going round and round with the Atlanta Falcons.

1:01Where we stop? Nobody knows. Welcome to Bootleg. Welcome to football.

1:05Welcome to the Bootleg Football. I'm Brett Coleman. That's EJ Snyder.

1:08I'm going to paint you a picture. If you're a Falcons fan, you already know this picture well.

1:14There's a lot of you listening to this that probably are not Falcons fans and have no idea what happened in Atlanta last year.

1:22They're 3-2 going into Week 7. Had an early bye.

1:25It's like a Week 5 bye. 3-2 going into a Week 7 game against the Niners, I believe.

1:31Divine Diablo breaks his hand, and the season basically ends right there.

1:35They lose five straight. They become one of the worst defenses in football.

1:39Can't dig out of the hole. The splits that you're going to hear today with and without Divine Diablo, entirely different team.

1:46Like, truly an entirely different team. In fact, he probably should have got MVP votes because that is how impactful he was.

1:53The Niners actually were hurt less by Fred Warner being out than the Falcons were by Divine Diablo being out.

1:59One of the wildest splits that I've seen this entire series, and maybe ever, quite frankly.

2:05And so I want to shout out one of our patrons, actually, who sent me down this rabbit hole because we always

2:12ask for your guys' comments and things for us to research.

2:15A.B. Jones put me onto this before I even started researching for this episode.

2:20Thank you, A.B. Holy shit. This was an entirely different team once they lost.

2:24They're remarkably cheap linebacker who happens to be the entire glue of the operation.

2:29Diablo is a player we really like coming out.

2:32He had some good tape in Las Vegas, and I don't think we knew.

2:36In fact, I'm going to change that statement and say it definitively.

2:40We did not know what he meant to the Falcons.

2:43We thought he would be helpful. These stats indicate not only helpful, but like primary, necessary, can't stand up without him on defense.

2:51And, you know, you said it happened in late October.

2:54I think of it as like an early wishbone from Thanksgiving.

2:58His hand snapped and the season went the other way.

3:01Not something we typically see. And again, when you talk about a guy like Fred Warner, who we talked about on the

3:08podcast last year, is like, oh, the Niners are done.

3:11And they actually weren't. But we thought there's no way they can sustain that loss.

3:16I am sure at the time we would not have had the same words about Devon Diablo.

3:21After looking at the splits, yeah, we're saying that and more.

3:25This was an 8-9 team. Again, started out 3-2.

3:28Actually fairly positive. You know, had a really nice win against the Bills early on in the year.

3:34Things were going well. And to go from 3-2 with all the momentum in the world to losing 5 straight and then

3:41rallying with a 4-1 finish, it just left a lot of Falcons fans wondering, you know, what could have been if one guy didn't get hurt?

3:49Well, the what if, we'll talk about the what was in terms of the overall record.

3:54An 8-9 team. Third in the division. Home record of 4-4.

3:58Road record of 4-5. One of the most balanced teams in their building and away from it in the entire NFL.

4:05But those last five games, as you mentioned, one of our surge teams.

4:09They were 4-1. And Falcons fans, yes, left kind of looking at their hands going, well, what was this?

4:15We started good and then we fell in a trough in the middle of the season.

4:20And then we finished really strong. Why? And part of the reason, Divine Diablo.

4:25There were other reasons as well. And one of the real benefits of Summer Series is we get to peel back all

4:32those layers and talk about the ones we think are the most meaningful that really led to these results.

4:38But we talk about what led to those results.

4:41It's the effectiveness summary for us. It's the how they got there.

4:45And we use a number called bootleg power score.

4:48It's simply six numbers that we think indicate the strength of a professional football team.

4:52They're passing EPA per play, rushing EPA per play.

4:55Their defense against the pass and the rush. Again, measured by EPA per play.

5:00Points scored and points allowed. That's six numbers. We add those six up.

5:04We just assign their league rank. Add those league ranks together.

5:08Divide by six. We get a raw score. We stack all the raw scores.

5:12And that's where our bootleg power score falls for them.

5:15So, in terms of the Falcons, yes, these are the whole season splits.

5:20And that is not terribly representative because lots of teams, again, have a change in the middle of the season.

5:26And the first half and the second half don't match up.

5:30This was more like thirds. First third. Middle third-ish or slightly longer.

5:33And the last third. But it all gets mashed together in these numbers.

5:38So, some of these numbers kind of smooth out those hills and valleys.

5:42The passing EPA per play, they were 19th in the league.

5:45Rushing EPA per play, they were 23rd. That's not a great number.

5:49It's almost... Especially with Bijon Robinson, by the way.

5:52That's like with Bijan elevating them by 10 spots, they were 23rd.

5:5633rd? Anyways, yeah. No, not a great number. With the talent you have on the field, and we'll talk about this roster

6:03and whether or not we think it's achieving or overachieving or underachieving.

6:07And spoiler alert, a lot of it's underachieving and numbers like that are representative.

6:12The pass EPA per play allowed... This was a good passing defense.

6:1513th overall. Could have been even better, again, if they hadn't lost a guy that's really good at playing the pass in the middle level of the defense.

6:24Rushing EPA per play allowed. 27th. This was not a good team stopping the run.

6:29Again, better with Diablo in there. But overall, on balance for the season, bottom five team in stopping the run.

6:36Points scored. 353. That was good enough for 24th in the league.

6:40If you're the 24th best scoring offense, you're going to have trouble winning.

6:44I don't care how airtight your defense is. Points allowed?

6:47They were 19th. They were an okay scoring defense.

6:50Altogether, that adds up to the raw score of 20.83.

6:53Again, lower scores are better. Like golf, you'd rather be closer to number one than you are to 32.

6:59That put them 24th overall. And that's about how the whole season felt if you were a Falcons fan and watched it.

7:06You never really felt like this team was going to impose its will week to week.

7:12Now, they did. You mentioned the game against the Bills early in the season.

7:16They had some real highlights where Falcons fans said, see, see, that's what I mean.

7:21That's what they can do on balance for the season.

7:24I don't feel like, and you can tell me in the comments if I'm wrong, Falcons fans, that you really felt like

7:31Atlanta was going to march into a bunch of games and impose their will on the opponent.

7:37That's just not the kind of team this was.

7:40So 24th overall feels about right for all the ups and downs.

7:44But again, if you just look at weeks one through six, which included a bye week, and then weeks 12 on when Diablo got back.

7:52And apparently he could have played with a cast and Raheem said no, to which I'm like, there's no reason why J.D.

7:59Bertrand with two hands should be on the field over Diablo with one.

8:03But anyway, if you're looking at just the games where Diablo is on the field, instead of 27th in rush EPA per play allowed, they were 17th.

8:12So good for 10 spots from one guy being on the field.

8:15In terms of passing EPA per play allowed, they went from 13th to 10th.

8:20And in terms of offensive points allowed, you go from 19th to 7th.

8:24There's a top 10 defense in the NFL by a lot of metrics when he was out there.

8:30And it was because he was their only linebacker that could really go both ways in terms of playing the run and playing the pass.

8:38For instance, J.D. Bertrand, his backup. In 178 coverage snaps that Bertrand was out there while Diablo was out, he allowed the

8:45same number of first downs that Diablo allowed in 702 snaps the entire rest of the year.

8:51Like just absurd how bad he was, like straight up bad.

8:54And I mean, you know, you guys have listened to the show for a long time.

8:59We don't normally like to bag on players. I was stunned at how bad this tape was.

9:05If you look specifically at the Colts game, hell, if you take out the Colts game, even including some of the other

9:12games where Diablo didn't play, if you take out just the Colts game, they go from 27th to 18th.

9:18That's how much damage Jonathan Taylor does, like 244 yards on the ground.

9:22And again, it's because they didn't have any other linebackers that play the run.

9:27It's a very blitz-heavy defense, which I'll get into in a second.

9:31That was kind of the core piece of why their pass defense kind of sort of worked.

9:36But the issue is, if you're a blitz-heavy defense, that means that if you get five, six guys in the backfield, typically it's going to be five.

9:45They like rushing five more than they like rushing six.

9:48If you get five guys in the backfield and you get caught in power, counter, any sort of pin and pull where

9:55they use that penetration against you and create these seams with your own penetration and just kind of wall you off, it

10:02means that you better have a linebacker that can get off a block and make a tackle.

10:08Or you better have corners that can tackle in space.

10:11Or you better have safeties that can tackle in space.

10:14You have five guys in the backfield, so you only have six that can actually stop you.

10:20Whoever has the ball. And they didn't have that.

10:23Like, teams constantly punished their penetration and ripped off these huge, huge runs.

10:27In fact, they actually got to Jonathan Taylor a couple times in the backfield.

10:31Still broke tackles. Still broke huge runs. Again, because they didn't have Diablo there who could actually fucking tackle.

10:38But beyond that, as far as pass coverage goes, again, if you're a blitz heavy team, we talked about this in the Vikings episode.

10:45That means the people on the back end who are not rushing have more ground to cover because you have less bodies in coverage.

10:53Right? If you're running a 3-3 fire zone, everybody who's underneath has more ground to cover than if you're running a traditional

11:00cover three where you have four people underneath. Or traditional cover two where you have five people underneath.

11:06It's a lot more ground to cover. If you don't have good linebackers, they're cooked.

11:11And they didn't have good linebackers after Diablo. So all these things mixed together meant that they didn't have the linchpin that

11:18held their run defense together or their pass defense together.

11:21And they just got absolutely shellacked when he wasn't on the field.

11:25It was gross. Gross. We've seen other defenses like this that lose a player that maybe isn't the most marquee name, maybe

11:32not the most well regarded around the league in terms of impact, but is very impactful for a particular scheme.

11:39They go out, they miss some games, and the team absolutely slumps, usually only in one area, not in both.

11:45Like, oh, their ability to stop the run was gone as soon as X went out.

11:50Backup couldn't play the run. He's okay against the pass.

11:53But again, as soon as tape is out on that guy, the replacement, opposing offensive coordinators, it's like a feeding frenzy.

12:00Just look at the tape and go, oh, they did that to him?

12:04We're going to do the same thing until they prove they can stop it.

12:09And if you can't, and the Falcons couldn't, spoiler alert, you're just going to see it week after week.

12:15Nobody's going to stop doing it to you in the NFL.

12:19They're going to keep doing it and find new and more ways to do it to you.

12:24So it's not an unheard of story, but it's usually the drop off is in one realm or the other.

12:31Either your pass coverage really suffers or your ability to stuff the run suffers, but usually not both to this level where

12:38it was kind of really good before. And once Diablo went out, they're really terrible.

12:42Honestly, at both. 60% of their explosive runs allowed for the season were just in the month Divine was gone.

12:4960%. Like it's. What the hell? Yeah. In four games, which is basically quarter of the season.

12:54So it's 25% of your games. You gave up 60% of the bad stuff.

12:59Ooh, not great. Now, what did work for them again in the Vikings episode?

13:03That was one of the teams we talked about how the pressure is the coverage.

13:08Atlanta might be the only other team that exemplified that philosophy as much as Minnesota did.

13:13Fourth highest blitz rate overall, specifically on third down, they were first in blitz rate at 54 and a half percent.

13:20Like that was what they were doing. Like we are blitzing.

13:24You know, we're blitzing, you know, either we're going to get there or you're going to get the ball out super quick.

13:31But we know that you can't throw deep because we're going to get to you before you even have a shot to

13:38throw it deep, which is a big reason why they were the fourth lowest in terms of deep pass, deep pass attempt face percentage.

13:46Is that English? That sounds correct. Close. You know what I'm saying?

13:50I'm getting there. Deep passes attempted against. There you go.

13:53There you go. They were, they were tied with Houston and people just not trying it.

13:58How about I phrase it that way? Of course, is though they did that with blitzes, whereas Houston did it because they had Will Anderson, Daniel Hunter.

14:07And the fuck were you going to do? Like you're just not going to throw a deep when you got them.

14:13So Houston rushed with four Atlanta rushed from five and six.

14:17As far as average time to pressure. When they did rush with four, they dropped to 18th in terms of average time to pressure when they blitzed.

14:26I think they were seventh. I got to double check that again.

14:30But they were a very, very blitz dependent team, not just in terms of getting to the quarterback, but in terms of

14:37protecting their DBs from having to be challenged deep down the field.

14:41Like teams just could not hang onto the ball long enough to even try to go deep on them.

14:47When you package that together with them being really good at tackling in space on the back end, they were ninth lowest

14:54and missed tackle rate after the catch. It meant that this was a defense that was really designed to try to get

15:01a TFL on first down against the run when they didn't have their best linebacker.

15:06Didn't go so well, but when they did, it did go well.

15:10Try to get a TFL against the run, put you in a long, long downs and distances on second and third down.

15:17Blitz the absolute shit out of you. Force a quick throw rally and tackle.

15:21Get off the field. That was the entire point of, of all that pressure.

15:26And if there is a weakness to this approach, it was when they were in short yardage situations or medium yardage situations

15:33when they blitzed less and they really had to put more bodies in coverage to stop quick throws from happening.

15:39They weren't inviting quick throws. They were trying to stop quick throws.

15:43When they had to put more bodies in coverage to do that and rush with four, they were really not good at it.

15:51If you're looking at overall pressure rate, they were 16th.

15:54If you're looking at, uh, Oh, here I actually did have the note, uh, with pressure rate with five or six rushers,

16:01they were ninth, not seven, but still top 10 pressure rate with four rushers though.

16:06They dropped down to 21st. So having a really, really good pressure rate when blitzing, but a poor pressure rate when rushing

16:13with four after spending two first round picks on pass rushers, not ideal.

16:17James Pierce was okay. And he's going to be suspended for the first eight games.

16:22Anyway, that, that news actually just came down a couple hours before we were recording this episode that, that he's out for the first eight games.

16:30Not our fault. I want to say just to get it.

16:34Yes. We didn't, we didn't do this one. Like the Cade Mays one where we definitely cursed Cade Mays just to get ahead of the Atlanta fans here.

16:43Not our fault. This, this one was pending. We didn't, we didn't do this.

16:47Cade Mays news came out like two hours before we released Alliance episode.

16:52So, so brutal. Like, ah, this is predictable. Well, we know how this will go.

16:56So Pierce is out for half. And honestly, they're lucky.

17:00It's only eight games looking at that case. Like it honestly probably should have been more, but anyway, that's a discussion for a different day.

17:08Um, but he was just fine in terms of effectiveness.

17:11I don't think he got a bunch of sacks, but if you're looking at like down to down impact, he was solid.

17:18I won't say he was great. He was solid.

17:21And then Walker tours ACL. So they're not getting the benefit of Walker this year.

17:26So they're, they're two first rounders that they just acquired a year ago.

17:30They're either not going to get them for the entire year or at minimum, not getting them for the first half of

17:37the year, which means they have to rely on everybody else for a very blitz heavy pass rush and just hope that somebody can win somewhere.

17:46It's like, I'm not saying it won't work, but the odds of it working, not super great.

17:51Yeah. The path to success is much more narrow than it would have been.

17:56And we should talk about why they drafted those two guys up high last year.

18:00It's because the year before they were one of the worst teams in football at pressuring a quarterback.

18:06They were bottom five overall. They were absolutely bereft of anybody who could get to the quarterback.

18:12So they said, great, we're going to take all these resources and we are going to make sure that we get some

18:19impact addressers guys that we think can do this for our team.

18:23And they did right again. Young pass rushers aren't always going to go off in their first season.

18:28Both of them showed some promise. Jalen Walker had some very nice reps.

18:33I think James Pierce had reps. I think he won on reps where we expected him to win.

18:39Didn't see a lot beyond that, but that's okay because nobody was doing that for Atlanta the year before.

18:45So he was filling a void. Anything he gave them was a step up from the previous season.

18:50And you were hoping if you're an Atlanta fan that both of those guys were going to take a step in their second year.

18:58And one of them is not going to play at all.

19:02And one of them is not going to play until the back half of the season.

19:07That is rugged. You brought in some other guys, but you know, we're talking about Samson, Nebuchadnezzar, Christian Harris, Cam.

19:13Cam Thomas is not going to save Cam Thomas.

19:16Like Cam Thomas is a very nice rotational player.

19:19He is assignment sound. Is he guy that's going to tip the scale in your favor for pass rush wins, especially, you

19:26know, one-on-one when you're talking about their very low rates of pressure rushing for no, he's, he's not that guy as he's Ojalary's back.

19:34Well, it didn't go so great the first time around.

19:37He hasn't seen a ton of growth in his, you know, a couple of years out of Atlanta.

19:43These are the guys you're going to have to, that Jeff Olberts is going to have to tape it together with because that's who he's got.

19:51You're not going to go out and get another top tier pass rusher.

19:56They're hard enough to get on the open market, you know, as is you're not getting one right on in the sort

20:03of dawn of the season and you don't really have the money to.

20:07So it's, it's very much, I'm sure Jeff Olberts is in that defense room going, uh, you know, Lawrence Taylor's not walking through that door.

20:15We got to do it with the guys we have right here and we'll see if they can.

20:21We've seen teams do it before, but they are going to have to lean if it's possible, even more into pressure.

20:28They're going to have to leverage that as their identity because if you rush with four with the defense as it currently

20:35is, you know, the current consistency of the defense roster wise, and you rush with four, I don't know about you, but.

20:42I'm not betting on great results for pressure out of that.

20:45One quick break, then we'll get right back to it.

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22:44And with that, let's get back to it. Yeah, they were 21st last year, like with James Pierce having some flashy wins.

22:51Yeah. Like their best pass rusher at this point is Brandon Dorlis.

22:54And I like Brandon Dorlis a lot. He can't do it by himself.

22:59No. Right? Like Divine Diablo might be the greatest linebacker of all time, apparently, but like he can't do it by himself.

23:06Nope. So, boy, it's just tough. And, you know, what sucks even more, and I hate to bring it up, Falcons fans.

23:13I'm sorry. If you look at the cascading effect of the James Pierce trade and the pick that they ended up at,

23:20and more specifically, the guys that were on the board with the pick that they ended up with.

23:26Now, the Rams spent it on Ty Simpson. I don't know if the Falcons would have drafted Ty Simpson.

23:32They would have drafted Reuben Bain. They might have drafted Maxie Hanator.

23:36They might have drafted Makai Lemon. There was a bunch of, like, there was only, like, two receivers that went off the board before their pick.

23:44Maybe one. Yeah, it might have been only Tyson.

23:47So, yeah, there's a lot of guys they needed that were there at the 13th pick, and they didn't have 13th pick

23:54because the previous regime panicked because they didn't want to get fired, and so they traded their future away only to win eight games.

24:02And now, here we are a year later, still questions at quarterback, still pass rush issues.

24:07Roster is, like, it has some star power, but, like, if your roster falls apart when Divide Diablo breaks his hand, you don't have a good roster.

24:16I'm sorry. Well, you don't have a good total team structure.

24:19Again, we've seen plenty of teams survive. We saw the 49ers last year.

24:24We were just talking about it. We thought that defense was absolutely going to go in the tank.

24:29Great job by the coaches to say, yeah, we just lost literally the best middle linebacker in the game.

24:36We are not giving up when every voice probably both, well, maybe not inside their locker room, but every voice outside their

24:43locker room was like, well, come on, what do you really expect with Fred out?

24:47And the answer is pretty darn good defensive play given who was left.

24:52So we've seen teams do it before, but it is tougher to do, and you have to have everything else.

24:58Like, the guys have to step up. The coaches have to do their best work.

25:03Look, you know, a different guy has to basically step into the hero role every single week.

25:08It's tough to do. That is just a tough bullseye to hit.

25:12And, you know, the Falcons are staring that down right now at the beginning of the season, which is not where you

25:19want to be when hope springs eternal. You want to be saying, hey, you know, if this guy takes a jump and

25:27this guy takes a jump, we could. And instead they're saying, well, we're not going to have those guys for the most part.

25:34So all these other folks we brought in, largely at low contract deals to be backups, are going to have to now

25:41play at starter levels throughout the season at high starter levels, honestly, if we want to improve those marks.

25:47And that is a difficult calculus to be starting off the NFL season with.

25:52It is not a great outlook for Atlanta defensively heading into the year.

25:56I will say a lot of this episode has sounded negative so far.

26:00There are still really good pieces here, right? Drake London, easily a top 10 receiver.

26:05I don't know where in the top 10. He's somewhere in the top 10.

26:09Bijan, easily a top three running back. You want to say top one?

26:14Fine. Him or Gibbs, honestly, at this point. But let's just say easily top three.

26:18Offensive line, for the most part, I like it a lot, right?

26:22Um, Lindstrom didn't have the same kind of year last year in pass, bro, but he's still an elite run blocker.

26:29You know, Bergeron just got paid. He's a young ascending player.

26:33Uh, like I, I don't, I'm, I'm not anti-newsial at center.

26:36Uh, it feels like Jake's been playing forever and has been solid forever.

26:40Like really Juwan Taylor at right tackles, like the one criticism you can really levy at the offensive line.

26:47Even, and even then there's like worse right tackle situations than Juwan Taylor.

26:51So offensive line overall, very solid. Some would even say good, you know, tight end Kyle pits.

26:56Is he worth 17 million? I think the vision of what Kyle pits could be is worth 17 million.

27:02Again, there's worse starting tight end options I would say out there.

27:06So there is a lot of talent here on offense.

27:09The issue is they just don't have a margin for error at quarterback.

27:14And when you have the issues on the defensive side of the ball, not in the secondary, but really more upfront on defense.

27:21When you have those issues on defense, you don't really have the luxury of not having a margin for error built in

27:28by great quarterback play, because it feels like you're just constantly on the back foot.

27:33You constantly have to match score for score. Um, you know, there's some teams that you're going to absolutely steam roll, right?

27:40If they're susceptible to your blitz heavy style. Uh, and if you can run the ball in them really well, we see

27:47games like with Buffalo where B John goes nuclear, they get after Josh Allen.

27:52Great. Like they have that formula for winning, but when you have subpar quarterback play, anytime you deviate from that formula, or

27:59anytime you go up against a team that does have answers for your blitzes or that can run the ball well, and

28:06even have like some semblance of a defense themselves, like you're gonna get smacked.

28:11And so the fact that they don't have a margin for error because of what Michael Penix is and because of what

28:18Tua Tagalaboa has turned into over the last couple of years, that to me, I think is going to be a lot

28:25of the meat of today's show is there are positive stuff we love, like especially skill position, talent, offensive line talent with

28:32the stuff that really, really matters, especially quarterback. It's, it's just not there.

28:36You know, it's incredibly average and you cannot, to your point, be incredibly average at the game's most important position.

28:42If the rest of your team has some holes in it.

28:46And again, they have some very high peaks, Drake, London, B.

28:50John, you named it offensive line talent. We really like, we named a bunch of defenders.

28:55We really like, we haven't even talked about Xavier Watts.

28:58He had a very good rookie season. The secondary's got Terrell in it.

29:02Again, he's been up and down, but he's not bad.

29:05Both of them. Yeah. Two Terrells. They have two Terrells now.

29:09Jesse Bates, you know, had a very nice season.

29:12Divine Diablo. We talked about like, there are pieces here.

29:15You like Billy Bowman Jr. A lot. I think he's really good.

29:19You know, nickel star around the line. Agent of chaos.

29:22These are all good players. But Atlanta, to me, because of the quarterback situation, feels like a team that doesn't leverage all of its assets.

29:30It feels like not greater than the sum of its parts.

29:34It feels actually lesser than the sum of its parts.

29:37Some of those parts go off every week, but it feels like fits and starts.

29:42And when you come up against coordinated teams, coordinated on offense and defense, or again, teams that you don't match up with

29:49particularly well because of style, you just don't have the wherewithal to flex, to adapt and just say, hey, this is the

29:56one week out of the month that we need the quarterback to step up and win the game for us.

30:03They're not going to have that. When you look at Panix and Tua, their stats for last year, and you can pick the one you want.

30:11But like just going off passer rating, right? Very middle of the road kind of average stat.

30:16They're right next to each other. They actually had the exact same passer rating.

30:21It wasn't terrible. It was 88.5. Again, that's like 20th and 21st or 21st and 22nd if you're adding it up in the league.

30:29And, you know, they're ahead of some other players that we talk about in, you know, more glowing terms.

30:35You know, we've had some Bo Nix praise on this podcast.

30:38Some, not a ton. Bo Nix in the last seven minutes of a game.

30:43Right. Very specific windows. But, you know, and it's below some other guys that we haven't had as much praise for, like Justin Fields.

30:51I mean, that's the neighborhood you're in. And if you're saying that's what I'm counting on to key this very powerful assemblage of talent on offense.

30:59And I need them to work at a baseline level that's at least mid-league.

31:04That's slightly below that. And then occasionally on those weeks where the matchup is poor or, you know, some other talents just not coming through for us.

31:12We need them to elevate our game. And neither one of them in recent play has shown the ability to do that.

31:19Do I have a lot of faith that either of them this season is going to make that jump?

31:25Right. Is going to become the guy that can elevate that talent on a week-to-week basis or can step up on their

31:33own on a, you know, once every four game basis.

31:36Cape up and win a game for them in the fourth quarter.

31:40I don't have a high confidence in that. And it makes it rough for literally the rest of this organization, offense and defense.

31:47Last year in this show, we talked about our apprehension about Michael Penix because of the accuracy issue.

31:53That was really the main thing was it was ball placement problems that had carried over from his time in college.

32:00You know, he threw a pretty ball in college.

32:03It's just it's it didn't always go where he wanted it to go.

32:07And when you have like an offensive line that's made up of 80 percent NFL players and a ridiculous receiving core headlined by Roma Dunze.

32:15And there's three other NFL receivers there. You know, his team gave him a lot of margin for error in college.

32:22And now he's asked to execute against NFL defenses where there's not an overwhelming talent advantage in his favor.

32:28And you gotta make the throws. And he's not making the throws.

32:32Again, it was it was an issue that we were worried about going into the year and it proved to still be

32:39an issue in the games that he played. He was fifth worst among all starting quarterbacks and off targeting completions.

32:45He was right behind Cam Ward. And if you guys listen to the Titans episode last week, Cam Ward had tons of accuracy issues.

32:53He was tied with CJ Stroud. Again, if you listen to last week's episode, tons of accuracy issues.

32:59He had more turnover worthy plays than touchdowns. He was barely a 60 percent completion rate despite having a huge amount of

33:06screens thrown on first down just to manufacture completions.

33:09Like he's just not accurate. Accurate. And when you also factor in the kind of funky style of offense that they were

33:16running with him where they again led the league in pistol usage by a lot.

33:21It's just it never looks normal. Like I never felt like, you know, when you're watching like a competent NFL offense and you just feel calm.

33:29You just trust that things are going to be executed.

33:32It's a new experience for me, Brett. I had that experience last year watching the Bears offense.

33:38I was like, hey, they're actually doing things that offenses I like do.

33:42And they're actually completing those plays. They're they're moving the ball down the field.

33:47They're getting first downs. This feels so cool because for years and years and years have been on the other side of

33:54that where I'm like, oh, can't you just complete a pass?

33:57Can't can't we pick up a third down? The answer has been no forever.

34:02And last year it was suddenly. Yes. So it is a new experience for me, but I enjoy it.

34:08Again, this team was fifth best in terms of the average distance on third downs like they because they have B.

34:15John, you know, they were good on first and second down in terms of just getting yards.

34:20But despite being the fifth shortest average third down distance, they were fourth worst in conversion rate.

34:26Like that's insane. Yeah. Like you can't be an offense that has the fifth easiest third downs and be a bottom four team at converting them.

34:34That's that's just quarterback play. And, you know, going back to the pistol thing, the fact that they led the league in

34:41pistol by a lot and had an 82 percent shift in motion rate like on tape, you actually see why they're doing it.

34:49Right. It's OK. We want to be ambiguous with the run game because we're if we're in pistol, it's like their way

34:56of kind of doing like the under center thing where we can run in any direction from under center.

35:02Whereas with shotgun, you kind of declare which way the run's going because that's the running back has to flow across the quarterback, get the handoff, yada, yada.

35:11They do it from pistol because Penix is more comfortable getting a snap from like in that way rather than getting a snap from under center.

35:19But they still preserve the ambiguity of the run game, but then they package it with motion.

35:25So they'll send a motion run. They'll send a motion one way, you know, have a bunch of screens built off those motions.

35:32You'll have the running back that flows the other way like they use the threat of B.

35:38John to try to, you know, pull the defense away from the screen game.

35:42They use the screen game to pull the defense away from B.

35:46John. And it's all just so. Manufactured. Right. It's not let's do the hard thing, the hard thing that tends to be.

35:53Most productive in the best NFL offenses, right, which is go under center, hard play action fakes, work the intermediate middle of

36:00the field, thread tight window throws, you know, over linebackers, under safeties.

36:04They just don't do that, at least not consistently.

36:07And I think it's because they knew they couldn't.

36:10So I just it kind of reminds me again of the Vikings episode.

36:14I swear to God, we've just done this episode twice now where, you know, they brought in Kyler.

36:20And I was like, is it is it a competition or is it a confession?

36:25And I feel the same way in Atlanta. You bring in Tua.

36:29It's not a competition. It's a confession. Like Tua is going to start week one.

36:33I'm pretty sure they already reported that. And, yeah, they could say it's because the injury is coming off injury.

36:40It's like, I don't think it is. Because even even with what Tua was in Miami, throwing the most like brain dead picks you've ever seen.

36:48At least he's hitting people in the hands. I'll give him that.

36:52That might not be the right team in the hands, but he is hitting people in the hands.

36:58And I don't I think it's less of a confession for Atlanta.

37:02I think more it's it's just sort of hands up.

37:05We don't we don't know what to do. We you know, we drafted this guy panic drafted this guy because of the

37:12health of Kirk Cousins or the lack of health of Kirk Cousins.

37:16And then again, we had to morph and constrain our offense because Cousins couldn't move.

37:21So he couldn't make all the handoffs. So we didn't have all the formations open to us.

37:26So we were declaring what we were doing a high percentage of the time.

37:31We spent, you know, a lot of time talking about that this year.

37:35And now with Penix, because again, like you said, I don't think they thought their chances of success at the stuff that's hard under center play action.

37:44Turning your back to the defense, working the intermediate middle of the field, which is very, very difficult for quarterbacks.

37:50And, you know, you might as well draw up a map that says there be dragons because there's a lot of picks there, tips and overthrows.

37:59Right. And, you know, younger passers want to stay away from that.

38:03They want those manufactured completions. They want the simpler stuff.

38:06They want the one on ones to the outside where they can just throw it up and it's either their guy or nobody.

38:13I understand that. But you can't make a living on it.

38:17And if teams know that that's the preponderance of your offense, that's where you want to go, they're going to take that away.

38:24That's a defense's first job is to say, what do they want to do first?

38:29We want to get them. We want to bump them off that stride and make them do things that are uncomfortable.

38:36And when they did, I think the Falcons said, well, we're still going to just try and do it anyways, because our

38:43chances of succeeding on the other stuff is really low.

38:46And that means our chances of converting this into a win are really low.

38:51So we're just going to try and walk this very narrow line where we might have some success, because if we walk

38:58off of that, we know we're not going to have success.

39:01And that is a rough way to run a railroad in the NFL.

39:05I'm looking at Penix's passing map right now. So 15 to 22 yards in between the numbers.

39:11There's just nothing. Yeah. Like, just absolutely nothing. And even then, the few pass attempts he has are within three to four

39:18yards max of the top of the number. But, like, in terms of in the middle of the field, 15 to 22, it's just this void.

39:26It's like Chernobyl. There's just nothing there. Nothing lives here.

39:30Yeah, it is. And you look down the left sideline, and it's just dot, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot.

39:36Not completed, but, like, it shows where the attempts went to.

39:40And I think that's the confession, right? Is you can say whatever you want about, oh, we want our offense to be multiple.

39:47And we're going to be, you know, we're going to be, like, show me what you did.

39:53Not show me what you said you were going to do.

39:56And what they did was avoid that area like the plague because they didn't think they had a high chance of gaining anything there.

40:04They didn't think their outcomes were better if they went there.

40:07So they just stayed away from it. And don't think that defensive coordinators didn't know that.

40:13Like, we don't need to leave a defender there because they don't pass there.

40:17They're never going to use that area of the field.

40:20We don't need to defend it. That means we can push extra defenders into the areas where they're passing more often.

40:27And that's what you see is lots of dots, not a ton of completions because the windows were even tighter because they

40:34could leave big voids because they knew the Falcons weren't going to exploit them.

40:39And it just feels like this entire episode is here's how Terry Fontenot's panic decisions fucked over this team.

40:45We'll talk about it in other ways because, again, he was there for a while.

40:50And we've said it before in episodes this summer and before on this podcast.

40:54You miss on enough draft picks, right? Especially high draft picks.

40:58Like, the emphasis goes up near the top of the draft.

41:01There's so much riding on those first two or three picks that you have in a draft every year.

41:07And when you stack them year over year, if you do not perform well, if you miss up there, it will catch up with your team.

41:16And likely it's going to catch up with you and you're going to lose your job.

41:21I mean, he did. He hit on Bijan. He hit on Drake.

41:25We can argue about pits. But it's the panic move for a quarterback.

41:29It's the panic trade for James. We just got to get a pass rusher.

41:34It's like, OK, that one. You know that you had to give up a future first in that draft class for James.

41:41Like you couldn't just I don't know. It just it reeks of I don't care about the ramifications.

41:47I have to look like I'm doing my job so I can save my job.

41:51And it got him fired anyway. Yeah. And now the next regime has to come in and try to clean up the mess.

41:59They don't have the tools to. Yeah. Like they do not have the ability to clean this up.

42:05Like this is going to be a team that is not going to pick in the top five because they do have

42:12too much talent, I think, to pick in the top five.

42:15And so they're not going to be able to get whoever QB1 and QB2 are in this upcoming class, which is a very good class that we think.

42:24And. I just I worry that they're just going to get back on this merry-go-round of like, OK, we'll take the fourth

42:31quarterback in the class, the fifth quarterback in the class, hope it works.

42:36And it like they are the definition of purgatory.

42:39I don't know how to fix it. I don't know what to do.

42:43Well, luckily, when we get into the second half of the show, we'll talk about their new GM.

42:49And yes, I'm calling him their GM because he is their GM.

42:52They've said he's their GM. He is their GM.

42:55Not decision maker. Sure. Can't get those picks. Yeah, can't get those picks.

43:00We're not going to get the picks. Fuck them picks.

43:03Them picks are gone. We know we know that's not going to happen.

43:07But we will talk about, you know, Ian Cunningham's experience, where he comes from.

43:11And he watched his old boss do it. When Ryan Poles came into the Bears, he had a very similar situation.

43:18He had a large mess to clean up. And he had to be very aggressive about doing it.

43:24We'll see if Ian is as aggressive or is able to be as aggressive.

43:29Because again, he does have a decision maker over him who might say no.

43:33But he was brought in to manage the roster.

43:36And he is going to have to say at some point, hey, I, like everybody else, can see what's holding us back.

43:43We have a couple of ways we can go.

43:46We can go the way the Colts did and we can sort of import veteran starters until that doesn't work anymore.

43:53And then we can pick our guy. Again, maybe in a year when we have that very high draft capital or can

44:00get it, can leverage some picks to go up and get it.

44:04Or, like, we're just going to kick the can down the road.

44:08But I think he sees, I think Ian is well smart now to see what the issues are.

44:13And now it takes some institutional will. It is difficult.

44:17You do have to literally bite the bullet as an organization and say, all right, we're going to take our medicine now.

44:24We're going to be bad. We're going to look maybe even a little more hopeless, which is what Terry was trying to

44:31avoid, trying to make those, like you said, desperation, flashy high picks to say, nope, I'm doing it.

44:37This is the spackle over all the cracks in the wall.

44:40I think Ian will realize. And probably Kevin Stefanski will support him in this of, hey, you know, Kevin's trying to save his job too.

44:48But being a new coach, maybe he's got a little bit of runway.

44:52And say, no, we need to start building this thing the right way.

44:57And that's going to mean a year where we don't look so hopeful at the outset.

45:02It's unfortunate that they didn't choose it to be this year because, again, with the unfortunate injuries and everything else, kind of

45:09be like, hey, you know, it's not our fault.

45:12But, you know, next year if they choose to take that course, it is, it's going to be clear, right?

45:18Again, an organization is going to tell you by their actions what they really believe.

45:23And I'm not saying they will do that because it is, again, a very difficult decision to undertake and sort of carry through with.

45:31Like owners don't like to lose. Nobody really likes to lose.

45:34But sometimes you've got to take a step back if you realize that, hey, because we have right now the, you know,

45:4221st and 22nd best quarterbacks in the league on our roster, we're not really going anywhere.

45:47Despite our high end skill talent that we love that we've drafted, despite our very good offensive line play, despite our playmakers

45:54on defense where we do have them there. As a team, we're not really going to go anywhere because we have that cap.

46:01It does take institutional will to say we're going to fix that because it is difficult and it is.

46:07You can just call it expensive, whether it's draft capital, money, free agency, whatever it is, is a difficult problem to fix.

46:14Hi, Alternate Timeline Brett here. Before we get to all the 2026 stuff, if you've liked a lot of the data that

46:22we brought up so far, we have companion infographics for every single team, including the one we're talking about today.

46:28With over 15,000 total data points that we have collected throughout this summer, each team gets its own companion infographic, which is roughly about 20 pages long.

46:37It has all the data on this team you can think of, whether it's alignment data, personnel data, cap allocation, coverage data

46:44broken out by down and distance, blitz data. I mean, basically anything you can think of, we've got it.

46:50So if you want access to that, you can find that down at the link in the description below or at the QR code on the screen.

46:59A reminder, we also have bonus episodes that go live every single Friday over on Patreon, recapping every single division.

47:05We're going to pick division winners, MVPs, Rookies of the Year, all that stuff.

47:10So if you want bonus episodes, plus more data than you could probably handle, that is over on the Patreon.

47:16Thank you once again to all of our patrons that have made, honestly, this series possible to make in the first place.

47:23We could not have paid the people who help us make it without your guys' financial support.

47:29So thank you to our patrons. Thank you to all of our executive producers on Patreon.

47:34Their names are on screen right now. They have been OG supporters of us and made so much in our lives possible

47:41while we try to chase this dream. So thank you.

47:44Thank you. Thank you. And with that, let's get back to the show.

47:48All right. 2026 section of the show. Now let's talk about who's going to ideally eventually fix these issues with the most important position in the entire sport.

47:57Ian Cunningham, we mentioned at general manager. Coaching staff has some, not even some, has several familiar names on it, including one carried over from last year.

48:06Yeah. Carryovers are always interesting to me when there is a complete house clean, when the GM and the head coach leave

48:13and those decision makers choose to retain somebody on staff.

48:16To me, that's like the ultimate endorsement. Hey, man, you're doing a really good job.

48:21We want you to just keep doing what you're doing because we do not think you were part of the problem.

48:28So that's Jeff Ulbrich on this staff, the defensive coordinator.

48:31But again, Ian Cunningham running the show, deciding who gets picked on this football team.

48:36I'm just going to say that. Head coach, Kevin Stefanski.

48:39Again, his tenure sort of ground down in Cleveland for, I believe, some reasons out of his control.

48:45Not all reasons. He is not blameless in that.

48:48But again, was in a very similar position of not sure we made the right decision at quarterback.

48:54And it eventually ended up in his ouster in Cleveland.

48:57Cleveland still a very good head coach. And I'm excited to see the run game specifically with Bijan under Kevin Stefanski because

49:04in the years when it was working in Cleveland, it was really good.

49:08Offensive coordinator is Tommy Reese. He'll be helping with that.

49:12And then special teams coordinator is Craig Aukerman. Talk about the assistant coaches on this staff.

49:17The offensive line coach, very familiar name, Bill Callahan, one of the most well-tenured offensive line coaches in the NFL.

49:23The pass game coordinator is Tanner Angstrin. And quarterback's coach, Alex Van Pelt.

49:28AVP has been literally everywhere at this point, either as a player or as a coach on multiple levels in college, in the pros.

49:35We highlighted it last year on this series. I think he has something like 22 coaching stops.

49:41Coaching and playing stops combined. So if you want to talk about influences that Alex Van Pelt has been exposed to, played

49:48in, played under, or actually run, might be one of the widest.

49:52All of them? Yeah, might be one of the widest sort of potpourries of the entire league.

49:57And the running backs coach is Michael Petrie. Again, another retain on this staff from last year.

50:03Has done a very good job with Bijan. Was previously with the Bears, but that was way back in 2001.

50:09So he's been with the Falcons for a while now.

50:12And again, I think smart coaches say, Hey, again, that part of our program's working really well.

50:18Just keep doing what you're doing. Inside linebackers coach, Barrett Rude knows of which he coaches because he was an inside linebacker himself.

50:25Outside linebackers coach, John Teemu, same thing. And the assistant defensive backs and Nichols coach won Ricky Manning.

50:31All right. Free agency recap. As with many regime changes, a lot of transactions.

50:3662. 62. A lot, a lot. Total transactions. Like, we're not going to list all of them.

50:41We will have them on screen, but it's a lot.

50:44Some of the most in the league in this entire series.

50:48There are, you know, cut these text blocks and cut them into losses and, you know, paid their own guys and then added from outside.

50:56This is like a page and a half of just single line transactions.

51:00And it's not uncommon. Again, when there is full scale change, both the GM and the coach get moved out.

51:07This is what happens. It usually happens over the course of about the first 18 months.

51:12It's usually about 65 to 68% of your roster over the first 18 months is pretty typical in the NFL.

51:18Doesn't all necessarily happen in like one free agency and draft cycle.

51:22And it has here. You're talking about a 53-man roster.

51:25Talking about 62 total transactions. Again, that includes folks that have left, folks that were added in free agency, not the draft,

51:32and then folks that got paid and stayed put.

51:35As far as notable departures here, Leonard Floyd, currently, as of recording this, unsigned.

51:40But at 34, he's bounced around the league and been successful in a lot of different places.

51:45Troy Anderson was a top 60 pick for them just a few years back in 2022.

51:51He is gone. Dee Alford, gone. Elijah Wilkinson, played a bunch of snaps for this team last year.

51:56100% of their snaps, actually. Might be the only guy that played 100%.

52:01I'm going to double check on that. But he is gone.

52:04Tyler Algier, gone. He's now with the Cardinals. I assume he's going to be siphoning touchdowns away from Jeremiah Love, just like

52:11he siphoned touchdowns away from Bijan Robinson. Ronnie Harrison, gone.

52:14Arnold Ebikidi actually was their most effective edge rusher in terms of like pressure rate, pass rush win rate, all that kind of stuff.

52:22Just didn't have nearly as many snaps as the other guys.

52:26But he signed for about $4 million with the Eagles to go to the Howie Roseman School of mercenary deals that end up making you more money later.

52:35So we'll see. Rehabilitated pass rushers. Yep. Yep. Yep.

52:38Yeah. He could have a fairly nice year there.

52:41I was actually really high on him coming out of Penn State.

52:44So we'll see. Darnold Mooney, he is now with the Giants.

52:48Rook Orovaro got traded to the Jags in exchange for Mason Smith, who we'll get into in a second.

52:54David Onyemata is now with the Jets. Caden Ellis bouncing back again to the Saints.

52:59I believe he's had three different stops in his career, but only with two teams, the Saints-Falcon-Saints.

53:04Yeah. It's an interesting list. There's a lot of names there that, you know, Falcons fans obviously are very familiar with.

53:11If you're talking about, like, real impact, like Darnell Mooney had his moment in the sun with the Falcons.

53:17It'll be really interesting to see what he does with the Giants post-injury.

53:22Ibikati fits in starts, but never really developed the way they wanted him to.

53:26Again, as a high draft pick pass rusher. Ronnie Harrison played a lot of football for this team and some good football.

53:33Tyler Algier was the very steady number two. Touchdown stealing, yes, is his forte, but he's also a really good RB2 in

53:40this league, which is what the Cardinals signed him to be.

53:44The Troy Anderson thing just hurts. It's, again, second round, 58th overall back in 2022.

53:49Highly athletic prospect. And the Falcons were not way away from consensus.

53:53There were other teams in this range that wanted to pick him.

53:56But, again, we talk about landing spot fit situation.

53:59They were never able to develop him to the potential that they thought he had, to his ceiling.

54:05And, you know, he's out there still unsigned. That's not necessarily a great look.

54:10And, again, if you miss on those high picks, it will come back to haunt you as an organization.

54:16In terms of the money they spent, like the big four right off the top.

54:21Kyle Pitts, Bijon, Drake, and Matthew Bergeron all signed big deals this offseason.

54:25It's retaining, for the most part, homegrown talent, home-picked talent.

54:28And then I wanted to highlight a guy sort of the opposite end of the spectrum.

54:33LaCale London, who is a defensive tackle for this team.

54:36He was originally an offensive lineman when he came in.

54:40Not a high-pedigree draft player. Switched to defensive line while in the pros.

54:44Originally was with the Bears. And has found a home with the Falcons at 29.

54:49Again, not a huge deal. $2.7 million. But what a cool kind of success story.

54:54Come in as an offensive lineman. Switch sides of the ball in the pros.

54:58I don't know if people appreciate how difficult that actually is.

55:02And then get, you know, a second and even a third contract.

55:05So, shout out to LaCale London. I'm really curious what paying this core means for their ability to build a window.

55:12Like, they honestly might have to hit on a young quarterback.

55:16Because the foursome of Pitts, Robinson, London, and Bergeron, again, all worth the money individually.

55:21That's $100 million a year. Yep. And even if the cap is going up from $300 million to, like, let's say $330 million.

55:28That's still almost a third of your space on four guys.

55:32So, again, every single deal in a vacuum made sense.

55:35When you actually do hit on picks, you should retain your guys.

55:39But some of the values of those contracts were the fact that they were elite players on rookie deals.

55:45At least two of them were elite players on rookie deals.

55:48Now, they're no longer on rookie deals. So, the way to offset that is hit on a quarterback who can at least be average on a rookie deal.

55:57And, you know, we can just kind of math this thing together that way.

56:02But, like, the pressure's on they have to hit on a cheap quarterback while these contracts start to spike in a year or two.

56:10Yeah. Otherwise, they're in trouble because every other deal, not every other deal, but it's going to have to be, you know,

56:17a million and a half, two million or less.

56:20And it's tough to build around that. But, again, you've got to have the quarterback.

56:25I don't really care how you get them. The problem is they can't just go overpay for one with that core and that structure.

56:32If they did, it would be basically two-thirds or even three-quarters of their cap on five guys.

56:38And you need 53. That's a tough way to build a roster.

56:42You have to be very, very good at hitting on young, cheap talent.

56:46That usually means mining the lower levels of the draft and having success in the UDFA market to really sort of build out that window.

56:54It is possible to build that way. But, like you said, the pressure is on.

56:59You cannot spend that kind of money on four or five players and not do literally all the other things in roster building and be successful.

57:07As far as outside acquisitions, they do have a bunch of these cheap deals that they brought in to kind of fill out the roster.

57:15Brian Robinson Jr., two and a half million. Again, reminder, when you're drafting in fantasy and you see B.

57:21Robinson, Falcons running back, make sure it's the right one.

57:25Don't screw that up. Olamide Zaccheaus, he's at a little over two million to fill out the receiving core, continuing the Bears

57:32to Atlanta pipeline that's been going on for like a decade now.

57:36Cam Thomas, he might start, I guess, in the first eight weeks.

57:39I don't know who else would. Him and Samson Ebicam, I guess, is their edge rush to go.

57:45Yeah, so currently it's penciled in as Ebicam as the edge.

57:49Cam Thomas is the backup listed to James Pierce.

57:52So, yeah, we're probably going to see Cam Thomas.

57:55And, you know, maybe they rotate Christian Harris from inside linebacker because he had some of that outside rush ability on like

58:02third and longs just to get some more guys coming off the edge.

58:06But, yeah, it's, you know, him or Aziz Ojolari.

58:09Take your pick. Braylon Trice, the great Husky Braylon Trice.

58:12And Aziz, Aziz at 1.4. Either way, they're going to have whoever's rushing on third down.

58:17I don't think they have a single edge that costs that's going to get significant snaps on third down that costs more than like three million.

58:26No, no, these are all if they get anything out of that group, it's great.

58:30And but I don't have any expectations. Right. It does feel like it's shotgun approach because we talk about Cam Thomas.

58:37We didn't talk about Cam sample who came from the Bengals to the Falcons.

58:42Again, a one point two million dollar deal was not particularly effective there.

58:46But this is the shotgun approach of like, get us some guys, see what we can fill in.

58:52Maybe we get, you know, half of the production in the aggregate.

58:56But at a fourth of the cost, like they are trying to math this pass rush out.

59:01They did think they were going to have they they were pretty sure they weren't going to have Pierce for the first part of the year.

59:10But they did think they were going to have their other first round pick as a pass rusher.

59:15Turns out injury took him as well. So now it's just these guys right now.

59:20It's just the replacements at one point two million dollars at two million dollars.

59:25Cam Thomas is the big one at three million dollars.

59:28They are going to have to find somebody in that group.

59:31Again, there's four or five guys. So Jelari is back like somebody is going to have to step up and get some

59:39kind of pressure or else this is going to be a very toothless pass rush.

59:43As mentioned earlier, they also brought in not one, but two Chiefs tackles.

59:48Kansas City was desperate to replace. And Juwan Taylor and Juania Morris brought in Jahan Dotson from Philly.

59:53Also brought in Sidney Brown from Philly to fill out the safety room.

59:58Mason Smith, again, was the other side of the Rook trade.

60:01Cooper Rush. Yeah. Oh, do I want to say something?

60:04Go ahead. Go ahead. I was waiting. That's why I highlighted him.

60:08Is there a chance? I was waiting for this.

60:11Yes. That he's the best one. You know, there is.

60:14I'm not. It's on the board. I'm not ruling it out.

60:18There is a chance, especially with this group of three quarterbacks, that he is the healthiest.

60:23Right. Again. I mean, yeah. Pennix has not been super healthy in the pros.

60:28He had a very good stretch to finish his college career, which was really important for him because he had been plagued

60:35all through his beginning college years with injuries. And everybody's like, he's injury plagued.

60:39And then he played basically two straight years without injury.

60:42His last two years at Washington. And that was really important for his draft stock because that was the knock against Michael Pennix.

60:50And then he got to the pros and got hurt.

60:53It was like, oh, OK. Obviously, to his issues with concussions, very high profile, well, well documented.

60:59So you never feel like you're super far away from that.

61:02So in terms of like best, I'm going to say best one standing is a very real possibility with those two other guys.

61:10We got an all timer for Coleman curse. Oh, Jesus.

61:13Cooper rush 98 yard pick six by John A.

61:16Barron in the preseason game. Never mind. Never. Never mind.

61:19OK. Healthiest. We're screwed. Healthiest. Over three. Shut it down.

61:22Oh, my God. Nice timing. Literally happened while we were.

61:25Nice timing, buddy. Oh, yeah. OK. OK. So Falcons fans, how are you coping?

61:30Watching a lot of Texas and Oregon this year.

61:33I yeah, very possibly. But it's going to be tough.

61:36But again, they are not a talentless football team.

61:39There are there are teams with bad quarterback situations that don't have a lot of other high end talent that have not

61:46drafted well at the top to get guys like B.

61:49John and Drake London. Those are hits. Those are good players.

61:53And I feel for those guys and I feel for Falcons fans as well because they're looking at those guys going.

62:00We're not going to use them again this year.

62:03Like they're not going to be maximized because of this three headed monster we have at quarterback.

62:08It's this is just not going to happen, is it?

62:11And that is a lot of dread to head into an NFL season.

62:15I'm not saying that preseason games are like the end all be all.

62:20But they are down 24 nothing. I'm not going to worry about the score, but the omen of Cooper throwing a big

62:27six as we're talking about him is not great.

62:30Let's just let's just say that. Let's talk about Christian Harris.

62:33I actually like Christian Harris. I think he's a good player.

62:37I think he can have a decent role on this team.

62:40That'll fix it. Can he throw? No, it doesn't help.

62:44But I do like the Christian Harris pickup. I'm just going to go on record and say I think they got him for a reasonable deal.

62:52I again, I don't think he maximizes talent with the Texas necessarily.

62:56And that's not a great thing considering the head coach.

62:59There is pretty good at maximizing linebacker talent. But I do like Christian Harris as a player.

63:05You know, hopefully he has a role in this in this defense.

63:08Is it going to change their outcome for the passing offense?

63:12No, it's not. Yeah, he cannot possibly be worse than J.D.

63:15Bertrand. No, no. We're you know, it's a positive just in that regard.

63:20All right. Let's talk about the draft, which I think.

63:23This might be the most negative episode of the summer.

63:26I didn't anticipate that. Falcons fans are going to love talking about the draft this year.

63:31Small class. Yeah. Interesting class. First couple guys they took, I do think could be legitimate contributors.

63:37Everybody else after that. Hard maybe for me, but with limited assets, because Terry left them nothing to work with.

63:43Could it un worse? Yeah. Yeah. We're talking about a second, a third, a fourth, two sixths and a seventh.

63:50So really half of this draft was sixth and seventh round picks.

63:54So, you know, you're trying to, again, mine diamonds from the rough and see if you can pin it together with, again, what was left.

64:02It's a tough thing to do, especially right after switch of the power structure.

64:06But we'll start in round two. We mentioned it before at pick 48.

64:10They got Avion Terrell, the brother of their current cornerback, the cornerback out of Clemson.

64:15Player I like who is feisty and it's of a type.

64:19They certainly have a type in the secondary. And I think he will add to what they have.

64:25Is he going to start for them? No, he doesn't necessarily have to.

64:29And that's a good thing. Their secondary is full of enough players that he doesn't have to come in and be the savior.

64:36And that's a good thing. Because, again, he's a second round pick, not a first round pick.

64:42To get him at 48, I thought was a good value.

64:45A lot of people were talking about him earlier in the draft process as possibly a first round pick.

64:51I didn't see that on tape. I had more reservations about that.

64:55I think he is a good player. But, again, if you're drafting a corner in the first, that guy is typically going

65:02to come in and he's going to have to start.

65:06I didn't think that was necessarily the best role.

65:08So I think where Terrell ended up, not only having some family in the building, but also not having the pressure of

65:16being the first round pick who has to come in and hold up a secondary, might be better overall in the long term for his development.

65:24He is slender, but he plays bigger than his frame.

65:27Like, he's just really, really tough for how slim he is.

65:31Extremely technically proficient. Like, as far as feet, hips, eyes, he just has teach tape every single game.

65:37The one thing you're worried about, again, is, okay, if he has to go up against, like, A.J.

65:42Brown, is he going to get, you know, like, truly outmuscled by somebody who weighs that much more than him?

65:49Maybe. But, like, he went up against some pretty big guys in college and he was competitive, especially at the catch point.

65:56I'm willing to let him try and just see.

65:59Right? I don't think this is, like, an Emmanuel Forbes type thing.

66:03Because, like, Forbes didn't play super tough in college, even though Forbes was small.

66:07Whereas, Avion Terrell, like, yeah, he's not big, but he's, like, I think feisty is probably the best word.

66:13Right? Like, he's like that kind of archetype of you really couldn't tell that he's that small just because of how aggressive he is.

66:21And also, again, how truly technically perfect he is.

66:24Like, he doesn't put himself into bad positions where his lack of size can really be used against him.

66:30Yeah, he's just a really, really solid player. And I think he ended up in a great spot.

66:36Yeah, I do wonder about ceiling with him because of that.

66:40Because he is already very technically proficient and he doesn't have, I don't think he's one of those guys that has a

66:47lot of space on his frame to fill out.

66:50Yes, he can get a little bit bigger. Yes, he can add a little bit more muscle.

66:55But, like, how close to his ceiling is he already, both from a skill perspective and a physical perspective?

67:01I think closer than a lot of other guys that we'll talk about as, you know, balls of clay or developmental projects.

67:08I think he's pretty well polished. You know what you're getting.

67:12And it's pretty good. In the third round at pick 79, I think this is my favorite pick of the draft for the Falcons.

67:20Zachariah Branch, the wide receiver from Georgia, spent some time at USC before that.

67:24Really explosive. When I got back to his tape, they didn't necessarily use him in the same way at Georgia.

67:31I think he had a little bit less opportunity than he did at USC earlier in his career when he made a big splash coming into college football.

67:40But I kind of rekindled my love for Zachariah Branch's game.

67:43I was like, man, he is still fun to watch just because the usage wasn't there at Georgia.

67:49It's not like he's a declining player. They're explosive in the return game as well.

67:54Lightning quick. Again, not the biggest guy, but also feisty fights for the ball and makes people miss.

68:00That was his calling card early in his college career.

68:03So a little bit less of it as he went on at Georgia.

68:07But it's still there. Lightning has not left the bottle.

68:10So I think he's a very exciting player. I thought the value was really good in the third round.

68:16I'm down at 79. I like this fit a lot for Atlanta.

68:20It's going to be tough for Dotson and Zaccheaus to both keep him off the field because I have to imagine this

68:27team's going to be in 11 quite a bit because they're going to have to be.

68:32They're going to have to throw the ball. And Branch, again, wasn't used in the way that I wish he was in college.

68:40But you could see it on tape. That kid can separate.

68:43Like he's just a really, really tough cover. So to go back to, you know, a former decade ago at this point,

68:51former actually Bear and Falcon Taylor Gabriel. Right. Like everybody's favorite wide receiver three back in like the mid 2010s, like that

68:58vertical slot who also like if he had to route somebody up, he absolutely could.

69:03It's just they didn't typically need him to do that because you have.

69:07Oh, I don't know. Julio Jones. But like if you really needed him to separate against man on third and seven, he absolutely could.

69:14Like Taylor Gabriel had gas and Zachariah Branch has that kind of gas.

69:19I think he can be that kind of vertical slot slash also really, really reliable separator.

69:24You know, is he somebody where if you throw him over the middle frequently in that area that we wish Penix would work more?

69:32Can he survive doing that three times in a game?

69:35Probably not. But if he's the complement to Drake London, who is built for that kind of action, I do think Zaccheaus

69:42is built for that kind of action. I think you could use Pitts in that way.

69:47You know, as long as he's really more relegated to like, OK, you're going to run deep crosses where we're going to

69:54hit you in the second window at the numbers because you're really good at tracking the deep ball.

70:00Again, wasn't used that way a lot in college, but you can absolutely do it.

70:05You know, we're going to hit you on deep posts.

70:08We're going to hit you on like drag routes where we can almost turn you into a returner after the catch and just let you run.

70:16You know, we're going to hit you on some deep outs, you know, underneath the corner, underneath the safety that absolutely cannot

70:24break down as quick as you can. Like there's just so many other things you can do with him besides run a dig and go get killed.

70:32You have three other guys that can do that.

70:35I like I like his potential here is a very, very high upside wide receiver three, maybe even wide receiver two.

70:42Yeah, I I love this pick. And at this point, there is there's a weird thing about the draft as it progresses.

70:49You're like, yeah, no. And at this point in the draft, you're looking at a second round pick of Avion Terrell, third round pick of Zachariah Branch.

70:58You're thinking, OK, and I am like, let's go.

71:01You're putting one together. You might be on one here.

71:04And then the worm turned a little bit. You get down to the fourth round pick 134.

71:09Kendall Daniels, the linebacker out of Oklahoma. The two sixth round picks at 208 and 215 were Ontario Thompson, the defensive tackle out of Washington.

71:17Harold Perkins, Jr., the linebacker out of LSU. And then the seventh round pick was Ethan Oneonwa, the guard from Ohio State.

71:25And you kind of go back and look at it.

71:28You're like, yeah, I had it. Yeah, I had it right here.

71:32What what happened the rest of the draft for me?

71:35More again, lotto picks, dart throws, whatever you want to say.

71:38And Terry O. Thompson, I will say this. I saw him at the pro day.

71:43I was at the UW pro day. I turned to the guy I know that covers the team.

71:49And I said, who the hell is that? And he said, oh, it's Terry O.

71:54Thompson. So defensive tackle just at six foot. So a little bit sawed off.

71:58300 pounds. RAS of 9.36. Did a 4.75. 40 yard dash at 306 pounds.

72:03That's crazy. Watching that guy move again, he is squat and he is he is both wide in the shoulders and he

72:10is wide front to back, chest to back. He is stacked up top.

72:14Watching that mountain of a guy roll down the track in 4.7, 4.8.

72:18Unbelievable for his size. This is the one that shuttle 4.38 at 306.

72:23So he can move like the tools are there.

72:26You know, the production didn't always match the physical prowess.

72:29When you looked at it on the field or on tape, he didn't have that kind of impact.

72:35But when he gets a hold of somebody occasionally, he just ragdolls them and you go, oh, and you're waiting for that over and over again.

72:43And obviously the consistency wasn't there. That's why he was available down the sixth round.

72:48But like I can see that like we're going upside here.

72:51We're just going physical upside. We could use again some more defensive tackle help.

72:56Maybe Ontario Thompson is our is our diamond in the rough.

72:59Harold Perkins Jr. Was a very high profile player.

73:02I will say at LSU. I thought he was coming out the year before.

73:07So I did a full workup on and then.

73:10Had to wait a full year. And it was one of those players that actually was like some players you're like, man,

73:17I wish you would go back for another year because like Harold Perkins actually kind of either stayed the same and everybody

73:24progressed by him or even regressed a little bit.

73:27And so the highest he ever would have got drafted would have been after his true freshman year.

73:33Remember when everybody's like, oh, my God, he's going to be a top 10 pick.

73:38Right. And it's a bit we we talk about this all the time in college football, like Zachariah Branch hit after his freshman season.

73:45Everybody's like, oh, man, way two years. This guy's going to be he's going to be a top 15 pick.

73:52He's you know, you can't stop this guy. And Harold Perkins Jr.

73:56Again, had his sort of highest press, highest pub, highest impact.

73:59If you want to say that early in his career.

74:02And I would argue that it sort of peaked and either plateaued or even declined a little bit, certainly from from last year to this year.

74:11So I wasn't surprised that he was still available.

74:14I know a lot of people that maybe only were familiar with him from that in that breakout early season.

74:20We're like, what are you talking about? Sixth round LSU.

74:23Well, I'm a good let's go again has some skills.

74:27But the overall feeling I got when I watched his tape both last year and this year was like, he's not going

74:34as high as people think he is. So I will say.

74:37So you mentioned putting Christian Harris on the edge.

74:40I think that's the guy you put out on the edge because he's done it before, obviously.

74:46And yeah, he's small. He's six foot six one to twenty five.

74:50Right. But I still believe that there's some of that early LSU Perkins in there somewhere with the lightning quick first step and the great bend.

74:58And if we could just get that a few times in a game, like if he can be like Nick Herbig, Herbig's bigger.

75:05Yeah. Which it doesn't feel like Herbig's bigger, but Herbig is bigger.

75:09I think Herbig played like 240 somewhere around there.

75:12But if he can just be that kind of DPR right now, I think he's getting work at inside linebacker.

75:19But who else are you going to rush off the edge?

75:22Like who else? Like Samson Ebicam does not have a thirty five inch vert at this point in his career.

75:29Like he's not running four, four, five like Perkins is like it.

75:32They don't have anybody with real, real juice until Pierce gets back other than Perkins.

75:37So if I'm them, I'm just finding an excuse to line him up out wide and just see if he can do something.

75:45Yeah. To me, I think his ideal role in a sort of Frankenstein-y way is a powered up star, right?

75:51Is dimebacker rolling overpowered safety, right? Because he's as fast as a safety.

75:55He weighs what some safeties weigh. He, you know, and I think again with the movement skills, right?

76:01Because he does have burst, right? He can stay with people in the short area.

76:06Do I want him like in pass coverage down the slot on a really talented tight end?

76:12I do not like that. He can run with them, but he doesn't necessarily show that skill set going forward from up

76:19around the line, causing chaos, blowing up, you know, running backs with some runway.

76:23Sure. Sure. Like I'm, I'm in for that. And that could be, that could be real value in the sixth round, but

76:30you gotta, you gotta get him out there in space and turn him loose.

76:35He's not going to be a guy that necessarily is, I'll say, you know, role dominant or, or job dominant when you're

76:42saying, Hey, this is your area and you need to control it forwards or backwards.

76:47It's not necessarily the role I want to play.

76:50As far as UDFAs, um, you know, maybe Jack Strand again for a quarterback needy team.

76:55Are you going to, are you going to do it for a fourth time?

76:59Just so he throws a pick six. Like I, I am grasping at the thinnest of straws here.

77:05Um, James Brockermeyer could make the team. Like I, I could see just because Brockermeyer was the one for me.

77:12I was like, you, you can always use depth.

77:14He is an experienced lineman from a big program.

77:17He played pretty well again at a solid, not spectacular level, but getting that, uh, getting a serviceable, somewhat versatile interior offensive

77:24lineman as a UDFA who had success in college against very good talent.

77:29Many of them who have moved on to the NFL, that's, that's a win in my mind.

77:34And so he was the one that really stood out to me.

77:38I know Jack Strand has gotten a lot of press as having some flashes and in camp again, who, who loves anybody more than backup quarterbacks?

77:46Uh, football fans will always fall for them for sure.

77:50Is Jack Strand going to make a difference on the Atlanta Falcons when the games matter in 2026?

77:55Highly doubtful. Same for Brockermeyer, but eventually he could be quite useful.

77:59And when you get them at UDFA prices, which is no draft capital and usually a fairly small signing bonus, that can be an organizational win.

78:08We talked about it. If you're investing so much money in a, in a pinnacle of four or five players, you, you

78:15need guys like Brockermeyer to fill out the rest of your roster.

78:19The average number of starting quarterbacks per team each year is 2.7.

78:23Some teams only start one. If they're lucky, some start four.

78:26If they're not, it's not out of their own possibility.

78:29We see Jack Strand starting like a Thursday night game in December.

78:33Somewhere around that. Could, could possible. I wouldn't put it past Atlanta specifically.

78:37Before we get into our patron viewer note, one last reminder.

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79:40And with that, let's get to our patron viewer note.

79:43Again, this comes from AB shouted out the beginning of the show because they kind of put me onto this divine Diablo rabbit hole.

79:51Uh, it says people underestimated how bad Jimmy Lake was for this defense.

79:55Refer to Brett's D offered quote last year. Per sumer brain without divine Diablo, the Falcons defense was one of the worst in the league.

80:03And with him, they were nearly a top 10 unit across every statistical category.

80:07Here's some scheme questions with the wide receiver additions that the Falcons have made this year.

80:13Do you think Drake London goes back to being an X receiver?

80:17And also with the addition of Avion Terrell, could we see more man coverage?

80:21I feel like Mike Hughes deterred Ulbricht from calling more man coverage because he's a more of a zone corner.

80:27Uh, albeit the league is nearly 80% zone anyways, but it's just a thought.

80:32So I'll answer these in stages, the man versus zone thing.

80:36Honestly, they played so much zone just because they're so blitz heavy and they, they don't really believe in man blitzes there.

80:43They believe in fire zones. It's, it's just a philosophy.

80:46Some teams like man blitzes, some teams like zone pressures.

80:49They're just a zone pressure type of team when they rushed a lot of bodies, it was typically zero.

80:55So a lot of their man pressures were literally just zero.

80:59Um, it was not, you know, one dog or anything like that.

81:03So I don't necessarily think it's because of who their corners were.

81:07I just think it's because that's the type of pressures they like to call, especially if they're forcing quick throws.

81:13If you're in a zone pressure, it means more people can rally the ball and tackle as for does Drake London go

81:20back to be go back to being an X receiver?

81:2320, 25, Drake London, 215 snaps on the ball, 202 snaps off the ball, almost a 50 50 split in the three years leading up to that.

81:32He was nearly a two to one ratio on ball versus off ball.

81:36He was a straight up X receiver with like a little bit of movement here and there, but two to one on

81:43ball compared to 50% on ball last year, I do feel like they are going to put him back to being their

81:50X receiver because he's kind of the only one that can really do it.

81:55And they have three other guys that are really best when you move them around.

82:00Zachari Branch, again, you don't want him to be on the ball.

82:04You want him to be off the ball, moving around as a Z, as a slot.

82:09Zacharias, you want him moving around or at least being off or away from a press corner.

82:14John Dotson, not that big of a guy. You don't want him tangling with big press corners like Drake's it.

82:21He's their option for doing that. And luckily for them, he's also one of the best in the league at doing that.

82:28So if I had to hazard guess, I think you're onto something.

82:32He's going to be a true X. And honestly, it might be more than a two to one ratio this year.

82:39If I'm Kevin Stefanski, I'm just like never taking him off the line of scrimmage.

82:43Yeah, this is a two part answer for me in terms of I'll talk about the Drake Lennon piece.

82:50I think you've covered man zone really well. A lot of similar thoughts on that.

82:54But in terms of Drake Lennon, I'll answer it from two perspectives.

82:58Given the roster makeup, specifically the wide receiver room makeup for the Falcons as it sits right now.

83:04Yep, they should play Drake at X. From a player perspective, from what I would like to see, from a maximization perspective

83:11of how to get the most out of Drake Lennon.

83:14No, man, don't do it. Like move him to the slot.

83:18Do not basically line him up and have him be a punching bag for opposing defenses.

83:23Do not give them, even though he's really good at it.

83:27Like what you said is true. He is very good at being a defined X.

83:31He has the skill set. He has the ability.

83:34He has all of those things wrapped together. And he's pretty effective and has been since he's been in the league in that role.

83:42So it's not that he can't do it or he's less effective out there or he's one of those big guys that can't play big on the outside.

83:51He is. But if you move him around, if you make him a moving target, defenses can't tee off on him.

83:58Defenses can't say, look, he's over there. We're going to put our best cover corner on him and we know he's going

84:05to be there because that's the only place they play him.

84:09If you and you could do a little bit of that with switch releases from an X alignment, but it's it's much

84:16more limited than if you are going to roll him inside and basically say, OK, defense.

84:21Now, what are you going to do now? We're dictating.

84:24Now you're going to you're going to go after Drake Lennon with your slot corner for a lot of teams in the NFL.

84:32Well, that's a mismatch for the Falcons. So I from an offensive perspective and a maximization perspective, I would like to see

84:39Drake have flexibility to not just be pinned in a sort of full time X role from the Falcons perspective.

84:45Yeah. Who else are you going to run an X if you don't run Drake out there with this wide receiver room?

84:52And the answer is. Yeah. So Drake's going to do it.

84:56I think I think you can get away with like, OK, we'll put Kyle Pitts out there as like the you know,

85:03the Matt Harmon term is sacrificial X. Sure. If if we want to do some slot stuff with Drake.

85:09But Kyle Pitts might be the only other guy on the roster that like could do it without getting his ass kicked.

85:16And even then. Yeah. Then then we're not really getting the most out of Kyle Pitts either.

85:22So I. Yeah, it becomes more of a guys in the wrong slots.

85:26So things aren't going very well. Again, if this was a wide receiver room that looked or was composed much more like

85:33some other wide receiver rooms around the NFL where you have two guys that fit that profile.

85:38Drake is definitely a guy I would want to get more slot opportunities because he is effective there and you can dictate

85:45matchups in a way that you can't when he is sort of permanently stuck on the outside.

85:51So there's two ways to look at that. One is, yeah, he should have versatility because he's that good a player.

85:58And the other is, well, Falcons wide receiver room is kind of bereft of other guys that are really good at doing what he's really good at.

86:06So I guess that one's yours, Drake. And it's just two different ways to look at it.

86:12It's a big reason why, you know, the Texans drafted Jaden Higgins.

86:16So they they had somebody who could do it so they could move Nico around.

86:21You know, the Cowboys, they have CD and Pickens.

86:24They have multiple guys. They can do it, especially at a high level.

86:28Bengals have Jamar and T. So they have multiple guys.

86:31They can do it. But even the Rams, like Puka is known as like the ultimate power slot.

86:37But you could put him at X and be fine if you want to give Devontae some some some reps inside.

86:44So there is. I mean, the Eagles, when they had AJ, like obviously AJ was like the X of all X's.

86:50But it's like Devontae Smith could be X. It's fine.

86:54He's going to be this year. Yeah, it's got to be this year.

86:58So there are a lot of teams that that.

87:01Absolutely get the most out of their guys by having multiple, multiple people who can line up on ball.

87:07Brings me to ceiling and floor. I mentioned yesterday the NFC South was going to have some teams where I have a pretty wide range here.

87:15Yeah. So my range is actually narrower than I expected for Atlanta because I went into this thinking like every team is

87:22going to have a five game range. I ended up with a three game range or actually four game range for Atlanta.

87:29Ceiling of nine. Floor of six. Mm hmm. Again, I don't think just because of the talent they do have.

87:36I don't think this team can get a top five pick.

87:39I don't think they're going to be bad enough to do that, especially again, if greatest football player of all time, Devontae Ablo is on the field.

87:48They're not going to get a top five pick.

87:51I would be stunned if they get double digit wins with this quarterback situation.

87:56I just I can't. Not only that with this quarterback situation and this absurdly cartoonishly bad.

88:01Edge rush group while Pierce is suspended. And even after Pierce comes back, not great either.

88:06Like overall. If they win double digit games, Kevin Stavansky might win coach of the year.

88:11I would agree. My ceiling is also nine as I look at this team as a whole.

88:17Again, there's so many pieces of individual talent that I really like.

88:20And again, in a different situation, they might be some of the best are some of the best even on their own team.

88:28But again, Bijan's not throwing the ball for you.

88:31Drake London's not going to be your leading passer.

88:34You got to have somebody to distribute. And I have very little confidence in the guys that they have right now in

88:41the quarterback room to be that guy at a high level that gets you double digit wins in a very competitive NFL.

88:48Like there are going to be some games they lose because of that.

88:52In fact, I think more than they probably win.

88:55And so ceiling is nine. The way they they're going to get to nine is one of those guys is going to be healthy and find some rhythm.

89:04And that's not impossible. We've seen Tua do it early in his career.

89:08Not lately. We've never really seen Penix do it for multi game stretches.

89:12We've seen stretches within a game where he's been all right.

89:16But one of them is going to find some rhythm within this offense, as it's called, and use all these weapons and just distribute the ball.

89:24If that's the case, they could lean on that and they could get to nine wins.

89:29They have a lot of new pieces, both on the coaching side and on the roster side.

89:35They have to they have to be the team I said they weren't.

89:39They have to be greater than the sum of their parts.

89:43And that would get them to nine. That's that's not a great forecast for the floor.

89:48It's five. How could it all fall apart? Neither QB finds a rhythm and they waste another season of B.

89:54John Drake pits all these talented guys, not to mention guys like Xavier Watson, you know, lots of other talented players.

90:01It it is really difficult to to go into a season and say, does the guy that touches the ball every single play give us an edge?

90:10And if you're like answer, your honest answer in the mirror is not.

90:14You're you're not probably going to be a double digit win team in the NFL, barring some kind of miracle.

90:20And to your point, if they do, Stavansky deserves some coach of the year votes.

90:25For the third time in his career. Yeah. Would he be the only three time winner of coach of the year?

90:32I think he might be if he'd be in select company.

90:36I don't know. I'm not great on all time record books for coaching stats, but he would.

90:41There's not that many that have done it. Which for a coach that has never gotten past the division round would be

90:48quite the quite the feat to be a three time winner.

90:52But anyway, topic for another day. I want to thank everybody for watching and listening wherever you happen to be watching and listening.

90:59Reminder, tomorrow's episode is live 24 hours early over on our partners at Buzzer.

91:04That's the Bucs episode. I know it's weird not having the Bucs be the division winner when we when we do NFC South Week.

91:11First time that's happened in a while. Maybe actually first time ever.

91:15Think about it because they won it like four years in a row.

91:20Either way, Bucs episode live on YouTube tomorrow. Live now on Buzzer if you want to go find that.

91:26And then we wrap it up with the Panthers.

91:29The reigning NFC South champion Panthers. If they have any players left, we'll talk about them.

91:34Yeah, that's definitely not our fault because we haven't recorded that one yet.

91:38So all that stuff happened before we ever got them on the docket.

91:42So don't blame us. And then, of course, Friday over on Patreon, we do our NFC South wrap up show where we

91:49pick our division winners, our MVPs, rookies of the year, yada, yada, yada.

91:53And then at that point, we are 75 percent of the way done here with Summer Series.

91:59All we got left is the Western divisions. We hit AFC West, then wrap it up with NFC West.

92:05As of us or as of when this goes live, I think we're two weeks away from kickoff.

92:11So we are very nearly there, everybody. Thank you once again, and we will see you tomorrow slash today.

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