PodcastFrom Bootleg Football
The offseason takes that are already wrong.
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 7, 2026
Published
Wed, October 7, 2026
21
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Bryce YoungKenneth Walker IIIC.J. StroudCeeDee LambChris MooreDarrell HendersonDeshaun WatsonDurham SmytheJustin JeffersonKirk CousinsKyler MurrayLamar JacksonMark AndrewsNico Collins
Player analysis
Player insights
Bryce Young
PositiveProjection40:00
Bryce Young's ascent continued into 2025 after showing glimpses of his Alabama form late in 2024. The source notes his superpower is pre-snap and post-snap anticipation, reading defenses and understanding gaps based on defensive alignment. He is working well with Ted Aro Macmillan, who excels at finding space and reading coverage, making them a strong quarterback-receiver pairing in a league where 75% of coverages are zone.
Insight pagePositiveProjection45:00
The source highlights Bryce Young's development of elite quarterback-receiver chemistry with Ted Rowe, comparing it to the Dak Prescott-CD Lamb dynamic in Dallas. Young is "on the same page" with Rowe in the slot, executing improvised routes that aren't necessarily called plays but rather read-and-react adjustments. The source notes Young's visible confidence post-game: "He's looking at him like, yeah, that's the one we worked on. We got it. Like, let's do it again." This chemistry is developing despite missing complementary threats like Jalen Coker, and the source describes it as "a very special relationship between a quarterback and a wide receiver when they're on that same page," suggesting Young's play will continue to improve as the offense develops.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection12:18
Stroud is playing at a top-7 or top-8 quarterback level through the first month, delivering exceptional performance despite the Texans' 0-4 record. He has been brilliant on throws under 15 yards (14-of-16, 160 yards, 108.3 passer rating, 10.0 yards per attempt, +11.4% completion percentage over expected) and elite on deep throws 15+ yards (7-of-11, 187 yards, 17.0 yards per attempt, 146.8 passer rating, +23.6% completion percentage over expected, 2 TDs, 0 INTs). He's been an exceptional distributor working effectively with multiple receivers regardless of whether Nico Collins is on the field.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveUsage41:40
CeeDee Lamb got 17 catches against the Texans this week and is in sync with Dak Prescott, similar to how Ted Aro Macmillan is being used in the slot for the Panthers. The source compares their connection to McMillan and Young, noting they 'just kind of bullshit their way down the field, just running whatever they felt would work.'
Insight pageChris Moore
NegativeInjury33:30
Chris Moore missed time during the season. The Ravens have dealt with significant offensive injuries across multiple positions.
Insight pageDarrell Henderson
NegativeInjury2:32
Running back Darrell Henderson is in concussion protocol, adding to the Vikings' injury woes on offense.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeUsage21:36
Watson turned the ball over twice against the Browns, which was the primary reason the Steelers were able to get back into a game the Browns had dominated early, jumping to a 21-7 lead and leading 21-10 at halftime.
Insight pageDurham Smythe
NegativeInjury33:30
Durham Smythe suffered an injury during the season. The Ravens have dealt with significant offensive injuries across multiple positions.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeRole1:48
The Vikings passing game is heavily dependent on whether Jefferson is on the field; when he's not, the offense defaults to throwing to TJ Hawkinson repeatedly without generating explosives or tackle-breaking plays. This dependency reflects a lack of offensive diversity and secondary receiving options.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage22:22
Kenneth Walker is described as 'going off' and 'doing Kenneth Walker stuff,' scoring two touchdowns in 19 seconds against the Raiders. The source highlights him as a key factor in the Seahawks' offensive success in their game against Las Vegas.
Insight pagePositiveUsage60:00
Kenneth Walker broke five tackles on a single run against the Raiders, matching the entire Chiefs running back core's broken-tackle total from last season in just four weeks. The source calls this "off the charts good" and notes it's representative of Walker's overall impact on the Seahawks offense. The source had predicted Walker would accumulate this many broken tackles by week 12, but he achieved it in week 4. Walker is described as someone "nobody can tackle," and the source uses his performance as evidence of a bold prediction coming true ahead of schedule.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
PositiveProjection21:22
Kirk Cousins is tied for first in passing touchdowns with 11 through four weeks, has the third-lowest pressure-to-sack percentage in the league despite coming off a lower-body injury, ranks ninth in EPA per play among quarterbacks, tenth in overall yards, and eleventh in average depth of target. The source notes he's lost a step physically but is compensating with mental savvy, pre-snap processing, and playbook knowledge. Raiders are eighth in scoring through four games, and the source did not expect this level of performance this quickly.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection2:00
Murray has not delivered the hoped-for competent quarterback play under Kevin O'Connell; he's taking bad sacks and hasn't resembled the version the source optimistically expected. The Vikings offense didn't look competent until the fourth quarter against a team starting the most rookies in the NFL.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury32:02
Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury in week four and is week-to-week; unclear if he will play in week five. Despite the injury, the Ravens offense under Declan Doyle has been historically efficient.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeRole35:00
Mark Andrews is no longer the focal point of the Ravens offense under Declan Doyle, but he is still contributing to the team's success. The source notes that Andrews is making plays and is still on the team, but the offense is more diverse and doesn't rely solely on him.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeUsage17:12
Stroud's EPA per play is actually higher with Nico Collins off the field than on the field, though this is primarily because Stroud has been making plays with all receivers, not because Collins is underperforming. The on-off split is counterintuitive but reflects Stroud's exceptional distribution across the entire receiving corps.
Insight pageT.J. Hockenson
PositiveRole1:48
When Jefferson is off the field, Hockenson becomes the primary target but lacks the ability to break tackles or generate explosive plays, making him a volume-dependent option in a Vikings passing game that struggles to create downfield opportunities.
Insight pageXavier Hutchinson
PositiveRole17:28
Hutchinson has made plays in the Texans offense as part of Stroud's effective distribution to multiple receivers.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
NegativeMatchup27:00
Xavier Worthy made an explosive catch against the Raiders in the Chiefs-Raiders game. The source mentions him as one of three high-leverage plays that determined the outcome, suggesting he was a key contributor to Kansas City's offensive success.
Insight pageZay Flowers
NegativeInjury33:30
Say Flowers missed time during the season. The Ravens have dealt with significant offensive injuries across multiple positions.
Insight pageZay Jones
PositiveRole35:00
Zay Jones is being pushed to the level where he needs to be as a leading receiver in the NFL under the Ravens' new offensive scheme. The source indicates he is being utilized at a higher level than previously.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00We are four weeks into the season, and oh my god, we got a lot of things wrong, EJ.
0:06We did get things right. We did episodes on every single team this summer, so there were things that we did get
0:13right, but this is not going how I expected at all.
0:16We always miss some. You're always going to when you're talking about the entire league, and yes, there were some good hits.
0:23We'll talk about those in the second half of the show, but the first half of the show is mea culpa for
0:30us in terms of we thought these things were going to occur.
0:34As did lots of other people. Not the case.
0:37Not happening. We've got a month of NFL football under our wings now, and we pretty much know that some of the
0:44things we thought we thought ain't happening. We'll just start with the wrongs here, then we'll move on to what we got right.
0:51My first wrong, or rather the thing that I got most wrong this summer.
0:56I thought the Vikings offense would look a lot more put together than this, and there's a lot of reasons why it looks that way.
1:04Keep in mind, they had 72 plays against the Dolphins and scored 15 points.
1:08For those of you that didn't watch that game, and I know there's people of all different fan bases that watch this
1:15show, and so you come to this show to learn about the games that you didn't watch.
1:21You don't need to watch the condensed replay of Dolphins versus Vikings.
1:24That was tough. 72 offensive plays, and they managed to only break four tackles the entire time.
1:30Now, credit to the Dolphins' defense. They didn't miss any tackles.
1:33Well, they missed four, but out of 72 plays, that's crazy.
1:37Like, one of the best tackling performances I've seen from any team this season.
1:41But at the same time, the Vikings couldn't do anything after the catch, and it's kind of been that way the whole year.
1:48Their passing game is very much, is Justin Jefferson on the field or not?
1:53And when he's not on the field, it's, okay, I guess we're going to throw it to TJ Hawkinson 13 times and
2:00see if he can do anything with it, which I love TJ.
2:04Again, he's not going to break tackles. He's not going to get you explosives.
2:08Like, this is a passing game that didn't have a single pass attempt over 20 yards this week.
2:14A single one, and it's 72 plays. Like, the run game I thought was steady but not explosive.
2:20You know, Kyler was taking bad sacks. He hasn't looked anything like what I hoped he would look like.
2:26Not expected, but hoped. Like, if I'm being optimistic about it, the August version of May.
2:31I thought it would look a lot more competent than this.
2:34They really didn't start to get going until, like, the fourth quarter against a team that's starting the most rookies of anybody in the NFL.
2:42You know, you got the left side of the offensive line now is banged up.
2:47Donovan's gone, I think, for the year now. As of this morning, they announced that.
2:52Darrow saw his in concussion protocol. Again, Jefferson was banged up.
2:55But it's not just the injuries. Like, it just doesn't look good.
2:59And I contrast that to what we see in Vegas with Kirk Cousins, who was there years ago.
3:05And I'm like, as odd as it is to say, if they just kept Kirk Cousins, they might have had better quarterback
3:12play than what we're seeing out of them right now.
3:15And I was wrong about that. Like, truly, I was wrong.
3:18I had much higher expectations for what this team was going to look like, at least offensively.
3:24Defensively, they're still amazing. But if they didn't have this defense, they would probably be 1-3 at best compared to the 4-0 start that they're in.
3:32Yeah, and the defense is covering up all ills here.
3:35Flores is calling a masterful defense. I think he has ascended even further from where we had him on the pedestal last year, which was really high.
3:44He might be the best defensive play caller in the NFL right now.
3:48And it is supporting the Vikings wholly. Again, they are an undefeated team that can't play offense.
3:53And that's wild to me. I, too, was hopeful that the good Kyler would come out under KOC.
3:59We haven't seen it yet. I'm not saying it won't happen, but we haven't seen the in-structure that we really hope for
4:06that Kyler has hit earlier in his career. And that's what we both hoped KOC could coax out of him.
4:12And seeing that yet, the running game largely dependent on the offensive line because, again, the running back talent is not elite.
4:19And now you lose the offensive line talent. It doesn't look like it's going to get better before it might get worse.
4:26And that's not great news for a team that's put this little on tape offensively through the first month of the season.
4:33Also, the penalties. So many procedural penalties. They had 11 penalties in this game, which actually is not the most that any team had this week.
4:41It might not even be top five this week because there were more penalties this week than I've seen in years.
4:48But still, having that many penalties on offense in one game.
4:52They just didn't have their shit together. And we had said over summer, oh, they won nine games and they had terrible quarterback play.
4:59What happens if they get average quarterback play? They still don't have average quarterback play.
5:04And they're still 4-0. So if they did have average quarterback play, they'd be like the favorite for the one seed at this point.
5:12It's just they can't get it. They couldn't get it out of JJ.
5:16They're obviously not going to get it from Wentz.
5:18It doesn't look like they're going to get it from Kyler unless he just magically becomes the Kyler of like five years ago, four or five years ago.
5:27I don't know what this team has to do at this point to get good quarterback play.
5:33And I don't want to rehash the whole Darnold thing again.
5:36Like they tried to keep Darnold. It didn't work out.
5:39It's not like they told him to leave. But I think that is, I think that situation will become a teaching moment
5:46for the rest of the league of, hey, if you draft a young guy, but you have a vet that looks like
5:53what you want the young guy to become, do whatever you can to keep him.
5:58And I do believe the reason why Darnold left is because he felt like no matter what contract he signed, he was
6:05going to have JJ breathing down his neck. Retroactively, or rather, if I could go back in the past, I would tell
6:12the Vikings, you already have your guy. You drafted JJ.
6:15I get it. Send him somewhere else while he still has value.
6:19I feel like even if hindsight's being 20-20, a lot of other teams are going to look at that situation and be
6:26like, if you already have one, just keep the one you have, even if you already drafted another guy.
6:32Because the best case scenario for JJ was looking like what Sam already looked like.
6:37So not that that situation is going to come up that often, but if it ever does again, I think every other
6:44team is going to look at Minnesota and how they handle that and try to do it the exact opposite way.
6:50And probably get rid of the young guy instead of getting rid of the veteran who's playing really well.
6:56Yeah, if you win 14 games, how much more potential do you want?
7:01And if the answer is you need another bite at the apple after that, you need to reassess your priorities.
7:07Outside of that quarterback that won 14 games, being on his last legs physically or being on the doorstep of retirement, something
7:14that wouldn't allow that success to continue. Clearly not the case with Darnold either way.
7:19How much more do you need? You know, take the bird in hand.
7:23And they didn't do that. And they are suffering the consequences.
7:26It is one of the things. They tried to.
7:29They did. It's just it didn't work. And I want to emphasize that they did try to keep Sam.
7:35They tried to keep Daniel Jones. Like, it's not like they told these guys to leave.
7:40Correct. It's just while JJ was in the building, they weren't going to stay because they felt like their job was in jeopardy.
7:48So to me, the mistake was keeping the guy in the building that chased off the other ones isn't the correct term.
7:55But like that was the reason why they wouldn't stay.
7:58So maybe they should have just got rid of the reason why they wouldn't stay because I don't think money was going to solve that issue.
8:06But no, it wouldn't. And again, the conventional wisdom in the NFL is that you need to draft and develop the young guy.
8:13And that's what's going to give you long term stability.
8:16Problem is, if he doesn't develop, you don't get any stability.
8:20You get what we're watching now, which is offensive tumult.
8:23And nobody really wants that. And I think teams might go against the quote unquote conventional wisdom in the future and say, we've got what we need.
8:32And it looks to be good for the next foreseeable window, which is we've talked about it only two or three years.
8:39Like we feel good about this for the next two or three years.
8:43We're going to lock this up. And if that means moving on from a guy that we drafted that has not yet
8:50developed, we're going to that's the bullet we're going to bite.
8:53And that's what we're going to do. I apologize in advance if you're watching this at like 2 a.m.
8:59and you get hungry from this ad read. But I could not resist the urge to use the cinema camera.
9:06I just had to do it. HexClad recently reached out to us and wanted to see if we could take a couple pans for a test drive.
9:14Naturally, we said yes, because EJ and I just use football as an excuse to cook half the time.
9:20And so I decided to test out these pans with a kind of sneakily tricky recipe.
9:25Tequila lime shrimp over Spanish rice. And I want to credit Sam the Cooking Guy.
9:30It's his recipe, by the way. I've used it for years.
9:34It's amazing. And it's not even that complicated either.
9:36You start off by whipping up a very simple chipotle lime garlic compound butter.
9:41Then you dice up your jalapenos, your fresnos, a tomato, some cilantro, green onion, all the greatest hits.
9:47Throw some oil in the hot pan after it's been preheated.
9:50Then add in your shrimp, your chilies and your onion.
9:53And this is where we get to the tricky part that I mentioned, because I chose this meal, again, as part of the steel pan mafia, typically.
10:02And I was curious if I could get the browning that I wanted from these shrimp that I normally get on steel,
10:09but without them sticking and just kind of being a pain in the ass to flip, which is what also happens on
10:16steel a lot when you're doing a protein. I was hoping to get the best of both worlds here.
10:22And surprisingly, I did. The shrimp, which weren't even all the way defrosted yet, by the way, when I put them in
10:29the pan, so there's a bunch of leftover moisture, made it even harder on me, honestly.
10:34But those browned up super nice, and I had zero issues moving them around the pan and flipping them.
10:40They didn't stick at all. And then after the flip, poured in a little reposado, flambéed them, added in the tomato, then
10:47added in the butter to finish it off. Then served it all over the rice, which I also did in the other
10:54deeper hex clad pan that they also sent me at the same time.
10:58And it just came out amazing. I got that same kind of Maillard reaction that I normally have to use steel to
11:05get, but without the annoying stickiness of steel. The cleanup was basically nothing.
11:09I didn't have to scrub at all. And as both a steel pan guy and cast iron guy, typically I was blown away by how these performed.
11:18So if you also like to cook on game days and you want a versatile pan that can get that same kind
11:25of browning that you want, all that flavor development that you're used to, and have it still be easy to clean, this is a great option.
11:33Cannot recommend it enough. You can go to hexclad.com slash bootleg to get a 10% discount on your order for a limited time.
11:40Again, that is HexClad.com slash bootleg for a 10% discount.
11:43Thank you again to hexclad for partnering with us, and we hope you guys come back soon.
11:49And with that, let's get back to the show.
11:52Well, while we're on what we got wrong, I thought the Texans were going to be really good, and I figured I
11:58would jump on this live grenade so that you didn't have to because I didn't want to.
12:04Either you or me, buddy. It's one of us.
12:07I didn't want to unleash that much emotion into the podcast just this week.
12:11We'll save that for later in the season. We both picked them to win the division in our divisional wrap-up episode on Patreon in the summer series.
12:20I thought C.J. Stroud was poised to take a Trevor with Liam type leap, and the funny thing is the offense is
12:27mid-pack in most statistics, but I would argue that C.J.
12:30Stroud is playing at like a top 10, top 12 level right now.
12:34Oh, yeah. Yeah, he is. And they're 0-4, which makes it incredibly unlikely to even make the playoffs.
12:40Only one team in NFL history has started 0-4 and made the playoffs.
12:44That was the 92 then San Diego Chargers. They won 11 of their last 12 to finish 11-5.
12:50They are the only team, again, that's gone winless in the first month of the season and still made the playoffs.
12:56So the likelihood of the Texans making the playoffs, incredibly small.
13:00The defense has been the most surprising, and typically when we talk about surprising in Houston's defense, it was the heights they hit.
13:07It was how good they were. This is not that surprising.
13:10This is the derogatory surprising. They've allowed the fifth most points in the league through the first month, 109.
13:17To put that in perspective, they only allowed 295 all of last year.
13:21So in the first month, the first four games out of 17, they've allowed a third of their total points from last year.
13:28And at this rate, they are on pace to give up, close your ears, 463 points in 17 games.
13:34For contacts, that would have been sixth worst or most allowed in the league last year.
13:39Now, the quote-unquote good news, because there's not a lot of good news coming out of that, because you have a very
13:46talented defense, you have a very well-paid defense, a very high-profile defense that's just not performing.
13:51Some of this should level out. Again, they're 0-4, so level out is a low bar to jump over.
13:57But three of the next four games look pretty winnable.
14:00Titans, Giants, and Chargers. But even if they reel those off and lose to the Jags, they'd be at 3-5 at the
14:07halfway mark, which is not where either one of us expected them to be.
14:12Houston's got some real soul-searching to do, because again, you have, like, what more could you want on defense in terms of
14:19an embarrassment of riches in terms of players, coordination, whatever else?
14:22It was really the offense. And then receivers got hurt.
14:25We went, oh, no, the offense is going to let the defense down again.
14:30Not the case. And they're 0-4, staring at a lost season in terms of not making the playoffs.
14:36And then what do you do? This defense has allowed the highest percentage of explosive plays in the entire NFL.
14:42It's over 20%. So one out of every five plays against them is an explosive gain.
14:47Even in, like, the Frank Bush era of defense where they were terrible, I don't think it was ever that bad.
14:54Now, slightly skewed because three of the first quarterbacks they faced were Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.
15:00And you're facing, you know, the most explosive offense in the NFL in Buffalo, as well as, you know, receiving pairs of
15:07CD and Pickens and Jamar and T. Like, you are going to give up explosives against that.
15:12But one out of every five plays is still unreasonable.
15:15The one thing keeping me going. Like, truly the one thing.
15:19And it's why I don't think their playoff hopes are completely dead at 0-4.
15:23Just 99% dead. It's because of CJ Stroud. We think the defense can get better.
15:28Because we've seen what they can do when they have their shit together.
15:32And it's not like they're ever going to go up against that slate of quarterbacks again for the rest of the year.
15:39If anybody could do it, it's the Texans this year.
15:42But the reason why, like the non-starter, the only way they can pull it off, is if CJ Stroud keeps playing the
15:49way that he has been playing so far this year.
15:52You say playing like a top 10 quarterback. I would say top 7 or 8.
15:57He's been unbelievable. I would say he even outplayed Dak in this game.
16:01And they had almost the same number of drives.
16:04It's just the difference was the Cowboys got, you know, they both had six scoring drives.
16:09I'll say that. The Cowboys got one more touchdown than the Texans had a field goal.
16:14You're swapping sevens for threes. You're going to lose that way.
16:18But if you're just looking at the numbers that CJ put up in this game, it doesn't even matter if it's quick throws or deep down the field.
16:27He was brilliant everywhere. Everywhere. Just throws under 15 yards.
16:30He was 14 of 16 for 160 yards. 108.3 passer rating.
16:33Yards per attempt of 10. Which on shorter throws, having a yards per attempt of 10 means that you're setting your guys up for really good yak opportunities.
16:42Completion percentage over expectation of 11.4%. Then you get to the big stuff deep down the field.
16:4715 plus yards. 7 of 11 for 187 on 11 attempts.
16:51So his yards per attempt was 17. Two touchdowns, no picks.
16:54Passer rating of 146.8. And a completion percentage over expected of plus 23.6%.
16:59That is absurd. That's hooping at a level that even rookie Stroud, I'm not even sure, was playing like that.
17:05This was the best he's looked in a career that started off very, very promising.
17:10If he keeps playing like this. And I believe he will because he's just played like this for a month now, whether he had Nico Collins or not.
17:19Here's the weirdest fun fact of the day, by the way.
17:22And it's something I didn't say in the NFL Pro Show because Trevor and I were both like, it can't be right.
17:29Like we know it's right, but it can't be right.
17:32The on-off splits for Nico Collins, their EPA per play is actually higher with Nico Collins off the field than on the field.
17:39It sounds ridiculous. It's just, it is what it is.
17:43But the only reason that's true is because CJ Stroud has been making it work with everybody.
17:48Not just Nico Collins. Like Jalen Knoll got busy in this game.
17:52Like Booty has made plays. Xavier Hutchinson has made plays.
17:55You know, he's worked with the running backs, even the tight ends.
17:59Sort of, kind of. Not necessarily this past week, but before that.
18:03He's just been an exceptional distributor with whoever was on the field.
18:06And I'm sick for him because he's not going to get the credit for how well he's playing because this team is 0-4.
18:14But at the same time, I know he's earning that $70 million extension he was asking for in the offseason.
18:20Like you play like this, give him 75. I don't care because you're not going to find that in the draft.
18:27It's playing extremely well and it's unfortunate because the results are 0-4.
18:31And despite your 1% hope for them, it does not look good for them making the playoffs.
18:36It'd be a tremendous story if they did. And on the other side, even as many doubts as we have about the
18:43defense as they are currently playing, Will Anderson is playing the lights out, man.
18:47That guy is feral. Oh, yeah. He's destroying people.
18:50And it's just terrible that when you talk about sort of the five highest impact positions in the NFL and you have
18:57two guys, one on each side of the ball playing at, you know, you'll say top eight for the quarterback.
19:04I'll say top ten. Will is playing at a top one level, top two at worst right now.
19:09And you still have a team that's 0-4. It's so frustrating because it's not like the rest of the roster is destitute, right?
19:17It is a well-constructed roster and they just haven't found a way through the first month of the season.
19:23And that might be it. Off to that slow of a start, it is historically improbable that they're going to make the playoffs.
19:30And that is a waste of some very good football being played on both sides of the ball by a few players.
19:37Yeah. Who knew that a month into the season, the top two candidates for defense player of the year were going to
19:44be Will Anderson and Deion Walker, apparently. Yeah. But if you watch the tape of the Bills defense, yeah, checks out.
19:50It'll probably be on my ballot at this point.
19:53As far as the next thing that I got wrong, I said the Browns defense was going to take a step back without Miles Garrett.
20:01Speaking of elite edge rushers. Because why wouldn't it?
20:04Right? You lose one of the greatest pass rushers of all time, one of the greatest defensive players of all time.
20:11Even getting Jared Verse back in the trade. I thought it unreasonable to expect a similar level of play from this Browns defense.
20:18And yet, take out week one, actually. The week one buzzsaw against Jacksonville, not to say that it's weird that Jacksonville had
20:25that good of a performance, because clearly the Jags are awesome.
20:29But if we take out that week one where they gave up 34 against Jacksonville and they were just clearly not prepared
20:36on the level that the Jags were. Since week two, this defense has been awesome.
20:40And keep in mind, they also played against Carolina over that stretch that scoring 30 per game just lit up Detroit last night as of us recording this.
20:49They held them to 18. And they kept them to field goals four times inside of their own 25-yard line.
20:56Jared Verse, while he hasn't had the individual statistics, if you're watching this defensive line on tape, he set everybody else up to perform really well.
21:04You know, set up two sacks for Mason Graham the week before.
21:08Mason, unfortunately, got hurt this week, but it seems like he'll be back.
21:12At least, hopefully, soon for them. But the back end, to me, is really the story.
21:17They played so well back there. 73% of the time against Pittsburgh, they were in man coverage.
21:22That is absurd. Even by Brown's standards. And this has been a team that's played a lot of man coverage for a long time.
21:30Even by their standards, that is unbelievable. To have three out of every four defensive snaps be in man coverage and to win that way.
21:38I mean, they had the Steelers offense in hell for the first half.
21:42And they jumped out to a, I think, 21-7 lead.
21:45I think they were 21-10 at halftime. And really, the only reason the Steelers got back into that game was because Deshaun turned it over twice.
21:53But, I mean, the Browns defense was unreal in this one.
21:57And if you're looking at since week two, to go back to that, they've only given up 59 points in three weeks.
22:04Like, that's less than Seattle's given up over that time stretch.
22:07You know, it's top 10 in the NFL in terms of total points allowed.
22:12In terms of offensive points allowed, like just touchdowns, they're top five since week two.
22:16So, this defense is great, even while taking on some water due to injuries.
22:21And they have been just as effective without Myles Garrett as they were with Myles Garrett.
22:26So, to me, I was wrong. Like, they're good.
22:29They're really, really good. And that's a big reason why this team's in the lead in the AFC North at the moment.
22:36I would say the reason that this team's in the lead in the AFC North.
22:41And they are playing on the defensive side of the ball as much greater than some of their parts.
22:47Carson Tuesinger picked up where he left off after a very good rookie season.
22:51And the addition of Quincy Williams has added some thump in the middle.
22:55Denzel Ward still playing great. Grant Delpit is making some really highlight plays, both against the run on the pass.
23:01You know, this is Tyson Campbell's held up, like you said, on the back end.
23:06Isaiah McGuire had a nice play this week. Like, everybody's getting into the act, and it's getting contagious where they are playing as a unit.
23:14And they are starting to believe that they're good.
23:17And that's when teams get really dangerous. So, you know, obviously minus some of the biggest star power in the NFL, it was very reasonable.
23:25And we both assumed that they would take at least a small step back.
23:29But I think both of us privately thought maybe a bigger step back.
23:33And they really haven't taken a step back. They have changed what they are and playing, honestly, better as a team.
23:40As far as a unit. Yeah, as a team.
23:43Right? Because you don't just have the Miles Garrett button you can press anymore.
23:47Right. Right. So just as a unit, holistically, yeah, you could argue it's better than last year.
23:53Yeah, which is not anything that either one of us would have predicted.
23:57Another thing that I got wrong, I expected Kirk Cousins to keep the seat warm in Vegas.
24:02We talked about the length of time that that would happen.
24:06Some folks thought it would be as short as six weeks.
24:09It really depended on how he played. I said, you know, in a sort of overly hopeful way, look, the Raiders would
24:16be thrilled if Kirk Cousins plays great and Mendoza doesn't have to see the field in his rookie season.
24:22Now, I didn't believe that was what was going to happen.
24:26I didn't expect Kirk to go on a heater.
24:29He is currently tied for number one in passing TDs with Brock.
24:32He has 11. He has the third lowest pressure to sack percentage in the league.
24:37I'm going to reiterate that because it's Kirk freaking Cousins that we're talking about.
24:42Never the most mobile guy ever coming off a lower body injury.
24:46Third lowest pressure to sack percentage in the league.
24:48That is huge for him and his game. Ninth best in EPA per play among quarterbacks.
24:53Tenth in overall yards. And 11th in average depth of target.
24:57Now, he's obviously lost a step physically. That's for sure.
25:00But he's in that savvy veteran stage where he hasn't.
25:03The skills haven't eroded completely. The arm hasn't left him.
25:06Where he's making up for that difference. That drop in physical skills with his mental savvy.
25:12His pre-snap processing. His knowledge of the playbook. And it is working.
25:15Raiders are the eighth best scoring team in the league through four games.
25:19Now, it won't last forever. Which is fine. Because they literally have the number one pick who they really like on the bench.
25:27Getting a first class NFL education in quarterbacking. But right now, it's cool to watch while he is rolling.
25:33And again, he is reunited with a coach. He had a great year with earlier in his career.
25:38But I don't think either one of us thought that it was going to gel this quickly.
25:44Or this completely for the Raiders. And look, Las Vegas fans have to be thrilled.
25:49I mean, it's the best case scenario. You were hanging tough with a team that we all expect to be there at the very end in the AFC.
25:58At least making the division round, if not farther in Kansas City.
26:01And you were going blow for blow the entire time.
26:04You make the mistake on the kick return. They punch it out.
26:08One of the plays of the week by Jeff Bassa.
26:11Speaking of guys that we were critical of in the past.
26:15But still, made a great play. You scored two touchdowns.
26:18Or rather, have two touchdowns scored against you in 19 seconds.
26:22Because Kenneth Walker is going off. He's doing Kenneth Walker stuff.
26:25And you go back out there and you punch back.
26:28You march down the field. You score again. You get a defensive stop.
26:32You put yourself in position to have one last drive.
26:36Against a team that is traditionally very good in the fourth quarter.
26:39And very good in the second half. And very good at closing teams out.
26:44And they couldn't get rid of you. Not that easily.
26:47They had to punt it and down it inside the one.
26:50And say, go ahead. Drive 99 yards. And you weren't that far off from getting a field goal range.
26:57So, to me, you're three plays away from winning that game.
27:00Right? You don't give up a 77-yarder against Kenneth.
27:03You don't, you know, fumble the ball on the kick return.
27:06And you give up, like, one less explosive catch to Xavier Worthy or Taequann Dorton.
27:11You know, say, okay, yeah. Oh, just don't make the three worst plays of the week.
27:16Yeah, of course, Brett. But it's three plays out of 120 in the game.
27:21If you get better on those three high leverage plays, you win.
27:24And the fact that your team is good enough to be three plays away from winning that kind of game against an
27:31AFC contender, that, to me, shows they're in the same tier as Kansas City.
27:36It's not a big brother, little brother thing. That's two really good, I would say, arguably equal teams going at it to
27:43the point where only three plays determined who won and who lost.
27:47If I'm a Raiders fan, I'm feeling great about that.
27:50I'm not feeling great that we lost because it was a gut-wrenching loss.
27:54But as far as proving that it's not a big brother, little brother thing, it's two equally sized brothers that can do real damage to each other.
28:02And you're going to see them again. And you know you have a shot.
28:07You know you have a shot to win that game.
28:10You have a shot to win the AFC West.
28:13That 3-0 start was not fraudulent. This is very real.
28:16This is a very good team. And a big reason for that is Kirk Cousins is playing better than we thought he could at this point.
28:24How cool is it that Raiders Chiefs actually matters again?
28:28Like, I don't remember the last time it did.
28:30I know. Truly. And the NFL is just better.
28:33Take it from somebody that has lived through several cycles where that was the case.
28:38And there's true hatred between these teams, which is rare in the modern NFL.
28:42Guys change teams so often. They were on the same college teams.
28:46They're on the same all-star teams. Everybody's friendly. Like, people still get chippy.
28:50But teams don't typically sort of have historical hate for very many other teams in the league.
28:56And the Raiders and the Chiefs, it goes way back.
28:59But like you said, in the modern NFL, it hasn't mattered in so long that people have almost forgotten about it.
29:06Well, all that stuff kind of got rekindled in the lead-up to this one.
29:10And then the game was good. And then the punching power was pretty even.
29:14Credit to the Chiefs for winning the game. They're on top of that division.
29:19But don't think they walked out of that Raiders game thinking, oh, yeah, easy out.
29:24We got them the next time we see them this year.
29:27Did you see what Clint said, by the way?
29:30Oh, what did Clint say? I don't know if you had the audio on the game going into halftime.
29:36So the halftime reporter was interviewing Clint as they were going to the locker room.
29:41And they were winning at the time, going into half.
29:44And the last thing he said to her was, we're winning the game.
29:48We're going to win this game. Yeah. And JJ and all them in the booth were like, whoa.
29:54Uh-oh. Oh, shit. It's like, buddy, you're playing Kids City.
29:57Yeah. And you're saying that. Matt Asselbach, we're going to take the ball and we're going to score.
30:03Yeah. But I'll tell you what. They were holding the lead in the fourth quarter.
30:07And then the kickoff return fumble happened. Like, he wasn't that crazy for saying it.
30:12They came close. The defense is holding up their end of the bargain as well.
30:17More so, I think, the free agency additions, especially at linebacker, have really transformed that defense.
30:22The defensive line is the same with a few additions.
30:25Again, in the middle where they really needed them.
30:28They've strengthened up the spine of that defense. And, you know, they've got a rookie corner playing out of his mind.
30:35It is a fun team to watch right now.
30:38And I, for one, am here for it. We thought that they were going to be good.
30:43And this was, you know, really a proof of concept season for them to prove that, hey, everything that QBX are bringing is going to work.
30:51Like, they're past that already. And we're four weeks in.
30:54And that is, that's a fun timetable for the Silver and Black to be on.
30:59So, if you made it this far with us, please take five seconds and make sure you're subscribed.
31:05And if you aren't, it only takes a second to do it.
31:09It really helps us with brands and companies that we work with to show them how much you all support what we do.
31:16So, we appreciate you watching. And with that, we're going to get into some of the things that we actually got right
31:23that maybe make you sound smarter around the water cooler if you listen to Summer Series.
31:28Yeah, there's a couple of them, at least. So, I will hang my hat on those hooks and those hooks only.
31:35Declan Doyle. It's the first thing we got right.
31:38Sounds like an obvious thing. Offensive coach from the Ben Johnson tree going to Coach Lamar Jackson, probably going to work out.
31:45It has. But, there's a caveat. I would say it's worked out even better than what I thought would happen.
31:51Because if you're looking at how banged up this Ravens offense is, I'll just list some of the injuries they've had in the first month.
31:59This doesn't even count the defensive injuries, by the way.
32:02So, Lamar had an ankle injury this week. He is week to week, apparently.
32:06We'll see if he plays week five. I have no idea.
32:10Ronnie Stanley missed week three. John Simpson. He's been dinged up with a groin, but he's been playing through it the entire time.
32:17He finally got off the injury report this week.
32:20But, first three weeks of the season, he was dealing with the groin.
32:24Andrew Voorhees finally came back and started this week and lasted 28 snaps.
32:28They've had nine offensive linemen already play for them since week one.
32:32And, they were already on their backup center entering week one.
32:36And, they've gone through two centers since then, to the point where Venka Juwane has had to step in and play center.
32:43Basically, everything that could have gone wrong for this offensive line has gone wrong.
32:47And, oh, by the way, Durham Smythe got injured.
32:50Say Flowers already missed time this year. Chris Moore missed time.
32:53They cannot stay healthy on offense. And, yet, despite that, Declan Doyle has been so good as their offensive coordinator.
33:00They are second in the NFL in success rate going into this week.
33:04And, in the first half against Tennessee, when Lamar was still on the field, they were at 58% success rate, which would
33:11have been the highest success rate of the week, even over Carolina, who was at 57% over Detroit.
33:17So, the only offense that you could argue over the entire season has been more effective on a play-to-play, drive-to-drive basis.
33:23The only one that's been better is San Francisco.
33:26And, they're on a historic tear right now. But, the Ravens right now, comparing it to other Ravens offenses of the past,
33:33are on a historic franchise tear right now. And, there's been some great Lamar Jackson offenses.
33:38This one, you could argue, is the most efficient and the best Ravens offense under Lamar when Lamar was healthy before he got injured this week.
33:46And, considering all the injuries they've had to deal with, that, to me, is a Declan Doyle stat.
33:52He has been phenomenal. He's been even better than I thought he would.
33:56So, I'm just going to give myself half credit for this because I said it was going to work, but I didn't
34:03even know if it was going to work like this well.
34:07He's looking like early candidate for head coaching opportunities with how effective he's been and also how much the building talks him
34:14up as a leader and everything like that. He's going to get interviews this year.
34:18And, I know that terrifies Ravens fans because they're thinking, he just got here.
34:23What the hell? Don't take him away already. But, you keep playing like this and you keep scoring like this.
34:29Injuries or no injuries, you can't keep him. You just can't.
34:33He's going to be gone. Too hot a commodity.
34:36We both hoped that this was going to work, just like we hoped that Kyler Murray would be better as a Viking than he was as a Cardinal.
34:44We hoped that Declan Doyle's concepts and what he learned under Ben would transfer and that Lamar would pick it up and
34:51that eventually, six to eight weeks in, we would start to see a finely oiled offensive machine that really used all the
34:58offensive talent that the Ravens have that haven't always been utilized to their maximum potential.
35:03Yeah, it happened in like week one. This Ravens offense, for me, is more fun to watch than even those high-flying offenses
35:10that Lamar has orchestrated before because it's more diverse and it isn't just one thing being leveraged, whether that's Henry or Mark Andrews back in the day.
35:19And then you see a guy like Andrews making plays and you're like, oh yeah, he's still on the team.
35:25He's not the focal point, but he too is contributing.
35:28Zay is being pushed to, I think, the level where he needs to be in terms of being a leading receiver in the NFL.
35:36But everybody else is getting into the act as well.
35:39Lamar has been sort of the perfect conductor for this symphony.
35:42I hope he comes back quickly because, man, this team is a lot of fun to watch on offense because they're doing it in a different way.
35:51Yes, all the numbers are exceeding even the great ones of the past, but it's just more fun to watch how they
35:58get there with this particular version of the offense.
36:01So I want to watch as much of it as I can.
36:05And yeah, that might only be this season. Sorry, Ravens fans.
36:08But when you have the hot young offensive assistant in the league and you do right now, he's going to get poached
36:15or at least he's going to get asked if he wants to go somewhere.
36:20And if he likes one of those opportunities, he'll take it because there's only 32 of those chairs in the world.
36:26Now we've seen to maybe back off the worry a little bit.
36:30We've seen a lot of folks in the past two to three years sort of say, no, I'm going to wait a year.
36:37We saw Grant Edinski do this in Jacksonville. We've seen multiple people do it where they go.
36:43No, I'm Nate Shieldhouse got a bunch of, you know, interviews.
36:46This past offseason said, no, I'm going to, I'm going to stay where I'm at until I really like the opportunity.
36:53I'm going to, I'm going to get myself a good landing spot.
36:57And Declan might do that. If he has another year with Lamar and Lamar is going to, you know, come back and
37:04be healthy and is just fired up to have him in the building.
37:08That's a great advocate to have. And he might say, hey, my best chance for NFL success is a second year in this offense.
37:15We've all seen what Ben Johnson can do with a second year of offense, the same place.
37:21So he might choose that as his best path.
37:24And for, for y'all, for all Ravens fans, I hope he does because a selfishly, it's super fun to watch on tape right now.
37:31And B, it would mean you'd get another year of outstanding offensive production, but either way, enjoy it while you've got it
37:38because it is some high level NFL offensive football and it's a treat.
37:42Unfortunately, every Bucs fans already do in Jersey swaps.
37:45So yeah, enjoy it while you can Ravens fans.
37:48That's because they're coming for him. So my first thing that I got right was Ted Aro Macmillan is ascending.
37:54I picked him for the offensive player of the year in our NFC South wrap up episode, the one we put on Patreon this summer.
38:02And I projected him during that episode in the ballpark, went back and watched it in the ballpark of 1200 ish yards and 10 or 11 touchdowns.
38:11And I thought that would get it done. Again, we picked Bajon for MVP, which was the highest award that we could
38:18give out for offensive player of the year. Which side note, not looking too bad.
38:23Nope. So far, not looking bad. Not looking horrible.
38:25Not looking bad either. But that seemed like chalk.
38:28I mean, come on. Bajon Robinson's a great football player, but it says, uh-huh.
38:33Yeah. Next. Ted Aro Macmillan had a very good rookie season.
38:36And I chronicled it in that episode and the Panthers episode as well.
38:4070 plus catches, over 1,000 yards. For a rookie, it was good, but he wasn't at his ceiling yet.
38:46He didn't look like it. So currently recording this after last night's explosion against the Lions, which isn't sustainable.
38:52I understand that. But he's on pace for 110 catches, 1636 yards, and eight and a half touchdowns.
38:58Now, every stat he had last night was a career high.
39:02Catches, touchdowns, yards. Like, that's not a sustainable level of production.
39:05But again, if you average it out over the first month, 1,200 plus yards and nine or 10 touchdowns is totally possible.
39:12And as far as preseason prediction goes, that's a bullseye.
39:15So he played exceptionally last night. I feel like he was the receiver that even his biggest stalwarts in the pre-draft process were promised.
39:23He was that guy last night. He was every bit, and probably more so last night, the receiver they hoped he would be when he hit the pros.
39:32We're in game four of year two for him.
39:35Yeah. Yeah. He's not done yet. He made some amazing plays last night, and he, just like he did in college, didn't
39:42really look like he was breaking a sweat doing it.
39:45That is a real credit to him as an athlete that he has that amount of grace and can get it done,
39:52even when the other team is bent on stopping him.
39:55Look, he had a historic first half in terms of Panthers receiving records and everything else.
40:00They knew in the second half, they didn't, you know, they're down both their top corners.
40:05They don't have players to stop him, but that didn't mean they weren't going to try and scheme things up to, again, take away the opposition's best player.
40:14We say all the time, don't let the best guy beat you.
40:18The best guy was beating the hell out of you in the first half, and he just continued to do it in the second half.
40:26So tremendous game for him. Really good sign of things to come.
40:30He already is starting from a great base. It's not like he's one of those guys that missed his rookie year with
40:37an injury or had terrible quarterbacking and couldn't have any stats because of that.
40:41He already had a very good freshman year, and the sophomore year is looking like anything but a slump.
40:47When he got drafted, we had talked about how perfect of a fit he was, specifically with Bryce Young, because that was
40:54about the time when Bryce really started his ascent.
40:57Because that year before, I believe that was the Eagles game where we were like, oh my God, this doesn't look like the pre-benching Bryce.
41:05This looks like the Bama Bryce. We saw little glimpses of it two years ago.
41:09And so then Bryce started his ascent at the tail end of 2024, at least tape-wise.
41:15The numbers weren't all the way there yet, but you saw the glimpses.
41:19You saw that he was getting his confidence. Then you get 2025, McMillan came in, and we said, okay, if Bama Bryce
41:26really is back, his superpower is anticipation. It's about reading pre-snap and post-snap and understanding how defenses, or rather where the gaps
41:33in the defense are going to be based on what they're doing post-snap.
41:37It is quick decision-making and finding space and attacking space.
41:40And McMillan at Arizona was really good at just finding space and reading coverage and sitting in the exact place that his quarterback needs him to be.
41:49It's not really about being a great route runner.
41:51It's more so about just understanding the structure of a defense and knowing where to put yourself.
41:57And he is so good at that, and he's still so good at that.
42:01And those two things working together from the quarterback side and the receiver side in a league where on average 75% of
42:08the coverages are zone coverage, that's kind of the most important skill set you can have.
42:13Yeah, we know he's big and could win contested catches and everything like that, but Ben Solak pointed out in his video
42:20that he did on McMillan's night, that was the most they had ever put him in the slot before.
42:26Where he could just read stuff and find space.
42:29And after seeing how effective that was, I feel like you can't go back now.
42:34Like, you have to just keep putting him in the slot.
42:37Kind of like a young CD in Dallas when they started using CD as a slot receiver where he could just read
42:44stuff and be on the same page as Dak, and they would just kind of bullshit their way down the field, just running whatever they felt would work.
42:53And they still do that to this day. CD got 17 catches against the Texans this week because he and Dak are just so in sync.
43:01When you have that big alpha receiver that can be that, what's the word, crafty, creative, nimble, you know, to read and
43:08react to stuff, and you're communicating at that level almost telepathically, there's nothing you can do to stop it.
43:14Nothing you can do. We've seen Mahomes and Kelsey do that for years.
43:19Half the time when Kelsey's running a route, it's not the route that's in the play, it's the route that's going to work.
43:26And we saw that from McMillan in this game.
43:29And I don't know how you can go another game without putting him mostly in the slot.
43:34If that's what you're going to get out of it, that kind of production, that's a slot receiver, folks.
43:40And it's not a derogatory, like, it's not that he can't play outside.
43:44It's you see the damage he can do inside.
43:47Leave him there. And yeah, maybe he will get that record-breaking Panthers season that we talked about over summer.
43:53I mean, shit, if he does that a few more times, he absolutely is going to break the record, franchise record for single-season receptions.
44:01He's, you said he was on pace for 110.
44:04That would be seven or eight off the pace?
44:06Like, yeah, keep doing it. Yeah, if you want your Nostradamus moment about Ted Rowe in the slot, Matt Harmon interviewed him
44:13at the Super Bowl and asked him, like, where he preferentially would line up in the pros.
44:19And he talked about that very concept, that if you put a receiver, he wasn't, he didn't say himself particularly, but he
44:26was definitely lobbying his case for being a versatile guy.
44:29He said, if you put a receiver outside, it's very easy to take him out of the game defensively.
44:35Yeah. There are structures. If you know he's going to be outside on either side, there are defensive structures where you can
44:42basically just go and one and limit that guy's effectiveness.
44:45And basically say the rest of the team has to beat us.
44:49If you move that receiver to the slot, either pre-snap or, you know, at the snap motion, either way, you can't determine those matchups, right?
44:57You can break them offensively. And he said, so that's, I think, my best use is because I can be put to
45:04more use if you put me in both positions.
45:07He wasn't lobbying purely to be a slot receiver, but he was clearly saying, if you leave me outside, I won't be the best that I could be.
45:16But yeah, he's pretty much living up to that and proving that point last night.
45:20And to your point, like it's increased some, I think it was a 20% usage in slot and it's up to about 33%.
45:28Like feels like you got to just turn that dial to 11 and put him wherever because he and Bryce are winning in a way.
45:36And again, it's without his complimentary threats, right? Jalen Coker's not in the lineup.
45:40Everybody, everybody in the building knows it's going to be Ted Aroa's game.
45:44And he still had that kind of game. Now, other defenses are going to be more effective than the Lions defense.
45:51I'll just say that knowingly. But when you start to develop that kind of relationship that you're talking about, it's a very
45:58special relationship between a quarterback and a wide receiver when they're on that same page.
46:03And we're starting to see that you could see it with Bryce even after the throws last night.
46:08He's looking at him like, yeah, that's the one we worked on.
46:12We got it. Like, let's do it again. And that is a fun, fun place to watch offensive football.
46:18Now, my second thing that I got right. I'm also going to give myself half credit for this one because there were
46:25a lot of Jacks fans that agreed with me.
46:28But there were some Jacks fans that didn't where I said they were going to be just fine.
46:34The sky was not falling. Okay, you lose a running back in free agency.
46:38You lose a linebacker in free agency. You're up against it cap wise.
46:42I said right after that playoff loss, this is not 2017.
46:46You're going to be back. You're going to be okay.
46:49And I think there were reasonable Jacks fans that looked at the state of the roster and they realized how deep they were.
46:56And they said, yeah, we're fine. We got quarterback.
46:59We got coach. We'll be good. And there were some rightfully traumatized Jacks fans that saw the last couple times this team got very close to the sun.
47:08And they thought they weren't getting back there. I would say they're on pace to get back there, EJ.
47:14Like this, this is a better Jags team this year than they were last year.
47:19Even with the losses they had in March. This is a better Jacksonville Jaguars.
47:23Trevor's playing better. Liam's coaching better. Notwithstanding a couple decisions in this Bengals game that I did not understand.
47:29You have Cam Little. You're punting from the Bengals 41.
47:32What the fuck, Liam? Like, kick a field goal.
47:35Or it's fourth and three. You can end the game.
47:38You're taking a penalty and punting. He got away with one.
47:42I think he knows that. But other than that, Liam's been coaching great this year.
47:47And the other criticism that I, a Texans fan, defended the Jags on this offseason was the draft.
47:52I think a lot of people, and I'm more speaking about non-Jags fans than Jags fans, attacked this draft class.
47:59And said it was awful. And that they didn't know what they were doing.
48:03And they got zero star power. And there was just reaches all over the place.
48:08Whereas, when we looked at each pick in a vacuum and we looked at what the goal of those individual picks was,
48:15their approach made sense to us, at least. Which is, they were drafting for roles and archetypes more than anything else.
48:22They weren't trying to find a star. I mean, they would love if they could get a star.
48:27But they were really more looking at, okay, where are the areas of a roster that are thin?
48:33What are the things that we want to do better next year?
48:37Do we want to use more tight ends? Do we want to run the ball better?
48:42Like, the back half of the year, their efficiency in the run game fell off a cliff.
48:47So let's attack that. Let's get a role and an archetype that attacks that.
48:52And so they drafted Nate Borkutcher early in the draft.
48:55Earlier than anybody expected him to go. Even us.
48:58And like, I like Borkutcher. I didn't think he was going to go that early.
49:02But the first thing we said on the draft live stream was, Jags fans, calm down.
49:08We understand why they did it. He's a wide tight end.
49:11He blocks his ass off. He's a high effort player.
49:14He's going to play a lot of snaps. He's going to make your run game better.
49:19And if your run game is better, Trevor's going to be better.
49:23And if Trevor's going to be better, who fucking cares?
49:26That's the only goal, is make Trevor better. And if you look at Borkutcher playing right now, almost 50% of their snaps, largely as a blocker.
49:34That's his main value. I'd say Strange is obviously much further along as a receiver.
49:39But I think Borkutcher can get there as a receiver long term as well.
49:44But he's playing almost 50% of their snaps. And this is a run game that is top 10 in terms of rushing success rate.
49:51And they're top 5 in terms of rushing EPA per play.
49:55Job well done. To me, whatever his personal stat line looks like doesn't matter.
49:59Because they weren't trying to draft a tight end that was going to get a bunch of catches.
50:05They have guys that can get catches. They have too many guys that can get catches.
50:10When BTJ actually uses his hands. And what they needed was consistency in the run game that puts them into reasonable third down distances.
50:18So they can keep the chains moving and be an efficient offense.
50:21And take pressure off their defense. And hopefully let Josh Hines Allen and Trayvon pin their ears back.
50:27Like, if you're looking at how a winning football team is built.
50:31They needed a wide tight end. They drafted a wide tight end.
50:35It made sense. It's working out. And we said that all summer.
50:39We said what their approach was. And, again, not Jags fans, but non-Jags fans didn't believe us.
50:44Look at them now. It's a great team. Like, if you're asking for a list of the top three teams in the AFC, can you leave Jacksonville off?
50:53I couldn't. They're a very good team. It was a question of value and when they took that player and whether or
51:00not they could have got him later. Again, they were the first team.
51:04They kicked off that run in this draft of tight ends.
51:07Would you argue that they saw it coming and that's why they did it, though?
51:12I don't know. I think that's a great chicken and egg question.
51:16Is I think everybody else is going to do this, too?
51:19Or I don't care if anybody else does this.
51:22We're going to do it because it's the right thing for us to do.
51:27And I think it's probably a little more of the latter and some of the former.
51:32It's also a very Rams-ish approach and knowing where their GM came from, the Rams have done this, especially in the lower rounds.
51:39At the top, again, they have gone for star players, but famously, they haven't had first round picks for most of the
51:46tenure that he was there learning how to do this job.
51:50But, you know, second round pick, sure, they were still sort of hunting stars.
51:54Third round, I would argue it dropped off a little bit.
51:58And by the time he got to day three for the Rams, it was all over the board and picking up players
52:05that we were like, why are they doing it?
52:07And then post-draft, we would find out they were looking for a particular thing that they did.
52:13A skill, a role, a gap that they could fill in what the Rams' overall plan looked like on offense, on defense, on special teams.
52:21But it was so narrow and so niche to us that we were sort of looking at broader value and going, well, that doesn't seem to line up.
52:30Whereas they were just trying to fill that one crack in the sidewalk.
52:34And so that was their approach. And again, it wasn't surprising in hindsight that, you know, a GM who was raised in
52:41that, you know, team building culture would take a similar approach.
52:44He just did it first and early and sort of unrepentantly and said, this is what we need.
52:50I'm going to get it while the getting is good.
52:53The best fit for what we want to do in our team.
52:57And I don't really care about where he is on your board or what his value is, even relative to the rest of the tight ends.
53:05We want this one and we're taking him right now.
53:08And then a bunch of other teams, in fact, many of them who are all looking at a multiple tight end trend, jumped, right?
53:16And did the same thing, drafted or overdrafted or drafted earlier than was expected a tight end who maybe didn't match up
53:23to a lot of boards value wise. But they were just the first.
53:27And whenever you're the first to do something, you're going to get your nose bloody a little bit because you're, you know, you're leading with your face.
53:36And they did that and it has worked and it has worked out the way they wanted it to in terms of run game efficiency.
53:44And, you know, maybe the happiest guy in the building is Basial Tootin because he's getting some lanes from Nate Borkutcher.
53:50So, you know, all's well that ends well. The Jags are one of the most powerful teams in the AFC.
53:57And a big part of it is because they have balanced their offense and they started with this pick.
54:03It's not the only thing they did to do it.
54:06It was certainly the most high profile and possibly, yeah, the most misunderstood.
54:10The next thing that I got right that I'm a little bit sad about, actually, is that the Bucks ship is taking on water.
54:17I didn't feel... You were right, but at what cost?
54:21Yes. What did it cost? Everything if you're a Bucks fan.
54:24I didn't feel like Todd Bowles had a good handle on this team at the end of last year.
54:30I voiced those concerns during summer series that, you know, maybe it can all work out, but it feels to me shakier
54:37than a lot of people are acknowledging. And those cracks have showed early and often this year.
54:43My bold prediction during the NFC South episode, the wrap-up episode, was that if the Bucks didn't make the playoffs, Bowles' seat
54:49was going to get really, really warm and he was probably going to get replaced.
54:54The Bucks, like the Texans, are 0-4. And their chances of making the playoffs are extremely thin, as we said at the top of the show.
55:02So, even before Baker got hurt, this team was shaky on the field.
55:07The last three games have been against opponents who are on shaky ground of their own.
55:12The Browns, again, defense very good, offense not so good.
55:15Vikes, defense very good, offense not so good. Stop me if you've heard this before.
55:20And the Packers, offensive line nowhere to be seen.
55:22It's basically been vaporized. They're holding street tryouts at this point, it feels like.
55:27And, you know, they are more gettable than they have been in years.
55:31But Tampa didn't do enough in those games to win any of them.
55:35And in previous years, they would have polished those teams off, probably in close, dramatic games.
55:40It's not like the Bucks have been a juggernaut that's just blowing people away.
55:45But they would have won. This season, they're finding ways to lose.
55:48And it doesn't look simple to turn around, even when Baker gets back.
55:53Now he tore up his thumb. Whenever he gets back in the fold, this isn't one of those teams and one of
56:00those players where I'm like, look, as soon as they get this guy back, issue fixed, they're ready to roll again.
56:06There were far more issues than just Baker. Baker was not playing great, to be clear.
56:11But they've had offensive line issues. The run game is suffering.
56:15The pass catchers have been banged up again. And the defense is not playing up to the levels it has in the past.
56:22It just feels like the sort of sum of all these little niggling things, these cracks in the foundations, are now starting to make the whole house shake.
56:31And that's not great. So the next four, Cowboys, not looking good.
56:35Steelers, Panthers, and Falcons, kind of ugh. Dude, that might be an 0-8 start.
56:39Look, I doubt they lose all four just because the NFL is very weird.
56:44Do you? I do. But if even half of those teams play up to the potential that they've already shown this season,
56:51I'm not talking about when we're in summer and we're projecting the schedule.
56:55I'm saying over the first month, like if the Steelers play like they did last week, if the Panthers play like they
57:02did last night, we've seen the Cowboys play pretty darn well.
57:05And the Falcons under Penix, like, kind of showed some life.
57:09The defense has been good. But if half of those teams play up to their potential, the Bucs are going to be
57:16staring at like 2-6 at the halfway mark. This is going to be a fire sale, like, primed team.
57:22You're going to start to see trading to build up assets for a mini reload, you know, and potentially regime change.
57:28I don't think Light will go. He's been good about stocking the cupboard.
57:33I do believe that. But if you're going to go with a head coach change, there's obviously going to be tremendous amounts
57:40of roster change after that, and you're going to need some ammunition to do it.
57:44So if this team is 2-6 or 1-7, you know, approaching the trade deadline, you're going to start to see the for sale signs go up.
57:53And just about everybody is going to be available.
57:55I don't think there are that many sacred cows on this roster, and they're going to be looking to figure it out.
58:02I'm trying to think of who is untradeable financially.
58:05I have to imagine Baker with his new contract is untradeable financially.
58:09Also, do you want to acquire a banged up Baker at that dollar sign?
58:13So that makes him untenable. I wouldn't trade Werfs.
58:16That to me is a sacred cow. Werfs is one.
58:19I'm not trading Werfs. I'm not trading Gidecki because good luck trying to find tackles that are better than that.
58:26Right. Outside of five guys, maybe? Maybe six? Ooh, here's one.
58:29Yeah. What could they get for Bucky? That's a good question because he's shown to be very productive.
58:35He is fairly low mileage, but he's not everybody's cup of tea.
58:39Even in the draft, a lot of people just said he's too small.
58:43And some GMs still believe that for a workload for a lifetime in the NFL, especially at a high wear position like running back.
58:51But there are teams that could use some running back help.
58:54I don't think it would be a higher round pick.
58:57I think this is going to be an aggregate.
59:00They are going to be looking to see how many additional choices or how much money relief they can get by leveraging
59:07some of the assets they currently have on the roster.
59:10And either turning them into cash by getting their contracts off the books or turning them into draft picks or both.
59:17And if you are staring at a badly losing season, I'm not talking about something where you were close or just to tick off.
59:25If you're looking at a badly losing season, a sinking ship, if you will, and you're going to change head coaches, you're
59:31a little more motivated to get some assets to play with because you know you've got a big job ahead of you.
59:38All right, we're going to finish today's show with shot of the week.
59:43We have five great nominees. We originally started with 10, cut it down to five.
59:47It's going to be a tough vote this week.
59:50We have some offensive players, some defensive players. We're going to start with Kenneth Walker.
59:55Talked about how the Raiders couldn't tackle him. Really, nobody can tackle Kenneth Walker.
59:59He broke five tackles on one run. So even though it's not a traditional shot, call it anti-shot of the week.
60:06Kenneth Walker breaking five in one run. Line him up.
60:09We're talking about five shots on the bar at one time here.
60:13That's what this is. He has as many broken tackles right now through a month as the entire Chiefs running back core had last year.
60:21Which I think also was one of your predictions.
60:24We do bold predictions in every single division wrap-up show on the Patreon every summer.
60:29And I'm pretty sure you said he was going to do that, but you gave him until week 12.
60:35Yeah. And it took him four weeks to do it.
60:38He has been off the charts good for them in multiple ways.
60:42But this run is, again, not a traditional shot, but just representative of really what he's meant to that offense so far this year.
60:49Nominee number two, Latham Ransom on Jameer Gibbs. Dislodging this ball, turning what could have been a touchdown drive into a field goal drive.
60:57And Goff did protect Jameer from the contact. That's something that Jared Goff does really well.
61:02It's putting the ball on the correct shoulder and trying to turn his receivers in a way where they don't get the worst of it.
61:10But this was still such a hard hit, such a hard collision.
61:14Still got the PBU anyway. Yeah, this is tone setting.
61:17And early in the game, this is Ransom and the rest of that Panthers defense going, uh-uh.
61:22No free passes over the middle. And it took Gibbs a minute.
61:26He's incredibly tough. Yes, small in stature, but that doesn't define toughness.
61:30He got up from this one and kind of going, okay, I'm going to think twice about that because Ransom has been
61:37on an absolute tear through the first month of the season.
61:40And he is hitting anything that moves. He doesn't care whether you're an all-pro or not.
61:45And he absolutely smacked Gibbs. Reminder, you guys can vote for your favorite nominee over on the Patreon.
61:51It's linked down below or at the QR code on the screen.
61:55It's a public poll. You don't have to be a patron to vote in it.
62:00But if you become a patron, we'd sure appreciate that and all your direct support.
62:04And thank you to everybody who has. Third nominee, another chief, Jeff Bassa.
62:09This one on special teams. So every chief's getting nominated for something that isn't defense.
62:13The play of the game, forced fumble on that kickoff return that set up the other Kenneth Walker touchdown where they scored
62:20twice in 19 seconds, completely flipped the game on its head.
62:24And at that point, the Raiders then had to claw their way back into it with limited time.
62:29And this was one of the plays of the entire weekend, not even just the play of the game.
62:35And you and I weren't necessarily super high on Bassa coming out.
62:39But if you can do that on special teams, you will play for a very long time.
62:45Absolute jackhammer of a punch out. I mean, just started from the highest leverage angle with his elbow like high in the
62:52air, drove directly down through the ball. Almost no chance to hold on to that thing.
62:57And again, you know, you can find a way to make your mark in the NFL.
63:02And Jeffrey Bassa, who has become a special teamer for the Chiefs, they wanted him to play an inline defense when they drafted him, certainly.
63:10But that was a game turning play. You can make a difference wherever you are in the NFL.
63:15Next nominee, Fred Warner detonating Adam Troutman. Absolute form shot here.
63:19Head to the side. Hit the midsection. It was just so solid.
63:23Took Troutman off his feet. Dislodged the ball. If you're a defensive coach, I would use this hit about how to teach
63:30hitting and the impact that it can have on a defense.
63:33I'd also throw on nominee number five, which is DeForest Buckner leveling Cali Ekmanis when he came in this game.
63:40It was about as textbook as it gets for how to hit a quarterback as hard as possible without getting a roughing the passer flag.
63:47Right. Head to the side. You know, putting the hands out to brace for impact so you don't get the body weight call.
63:55You know, hit him in the midsection. Not too high.
63:58Not too low. Like this. This is just how you hit the quarterback.
64:02And every single coaching staff in the league, I guarantee you, every single one put that play on a cut up for all their defensive linemen.
64:10And they're trying to compare it to the one that happened in the Dolphins Chiefs game the week before and dissecting a little differences.
64:18And a lot of people were like, I look exactly the same to me.
64:22It seems like Chiefs bias. It was slightly different.
64:25I think Buckner braced himself better. I think it was a little bit more to the side.
64:31And I think that's the exact kind of hit the league is looking for.
64:35Now, would I have thrown the roughing the passer call in the Miami game?
64:39No, I wouldn't have. I'm just saying the refs are going to.
64:43So you better learn how to hit like Buckner and just play on the safe side.
64:48Well, I wouldn't say it's safe for Cali McManus's rib cage.
64:52But as far as not getting a penalty playing on the safe side, this is about as good as it gets.
64:59Yeah. Cali McManus was feeling it after this game.
65:01Later in the game, made a rookie mistake, missed the backside free run defender.
65:06Justin Wally hit him again in the back. Just one of those old school blindside quarterback destruction hits.
65:12Not illegal in any way, but he never saw him coming.
65:15He just missed the check. He didn't understand that that guy was his rusher.
65:19Was just standing there in the pocket looking to throw one of those 60-yard bombs.
65:24Was a fun debut for Cali McManus in terms of just chucking it down the field.
65:29An exciting debut, but he was definitely feeling it the morning after because of both of these hits.
65:35So check out the poll on the Patreon. You can vote for this week's shot of the week.
65:41Again, it's a public poll. Don't have to be a patron to vote in it, but we appreciate if you become one.
65:48And we want to thank all of our executive producers on the Patreon that helped make this show possible.
65:54Fitzy, Connor, Kells, Mike, Owen, Eichen, Stewart, and Major.
65:57Thank you to all of you once again. Hope you guys enjoyed the show wherever you happen to be watching or listening.
66:04And we will see you in a few days to look at week five.
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