"Why is my Quarterback playing bad?"

Baker Mayfield is struggling significantly despite not facing above-average pressure. Among QBs with 50+ dropbacks, he's 20th in pressure percentage (19 QBs face more pressure) and 14 QBs experience faster pressure. Yet he ranks 31st in EPA per play on pass plays, second-to-last in passing success rate, and has the eighth-lowest yards per attempt. Most concerningly, he has the worst pressure-to-sack percentage in the league at 28.9%, nearly 6.4 percentage points worse than the next-closest player (Deshaun Watson).

Drake May notes Mayfield is 31st in EPA per play on pass plays, second to last in passing success rate, and has the eighth lowest yards per attempt among QBs with 50+ dropbacks; despite mid-pack pressure (20th in pressure percentage), he has the worst pressure-to-sack conversion rate in the league at 28.9%, nearly 6.4 percentage points worse than Deshaun Watson (second-worst), and has taken a league-high 13 sacks (11% of dropbacks) while fumbling three times and losing all three.

Drake May identifies that Mayfield's sack problem stems from interior offensive line vulnerability, particularly running backs failing to pass protect; Minnesota attacked the running backs on roughly half or more of sacks, and Cleveland used stunts to create immediate interior pressure. The formula is to attack up the middle because Mayfield drops his eyes when facing interior pressure, takes off to run, and at his current age (seven to eight years in league since 2018 draft) is no longer as mobile as young Baker, making him vulnerable to this attack pattern.

Drake May reports Mayfield is out for an indeterminate number of weeks (as of Wednesday recording) with multiple games missed; he was on pace for 74 sacks this season, approaching David Carr's record of 76 sacks.

Drake May includes Baker Mayfield in a cohort of young quarterbacks who have demonstrated strong play in the past but are currently struggling. Mayfield's early Tampa Bay years are cited as evidence of his capability, but the current season represents a departure from that standard. The broader point is that all five QBs discussed (Cam Ward, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Drake May) are good players with high ceilings but are not currently performing near those levels.

Drake May reports Cam Ward has only four deep pass attempts (20+ yards) and eight completions over 10 yards all season, compared to Bryce Young (26), Trevor Lawrence (25), and Tyler Shuck (24) from his draft class; he is the only starting QB with 30+ dropbacks that has fewer tight window attempts than Patrick Mahomes, and has not completed a single tight window attempt. Despite an offensive line that has improved substantially (allowing only four pressure dropbacks in week three vs. 16 in week one) and a time to throw of 2.9 seconds with minimal pressure, Ward is not throwing downfield or attempting tight window throws.

Drake May describes Ward as gun-shy and paralyzed by overanalysis, opting out from the job of playing quarterback; he sits behind an offensive line playing fairly well with a 2.9-second time to throw and minimal pressure, yet makes no decisions, does nothing, and is barely contributing offensively. Coach Robert Salas said Ward has PTSD from past sacks, which doesn't help. The offense is barely existing because Ward is not executing the timing and structure that offensive coordinator Dable is drawing up; instead of making the big game-changing plays he made last year with extra time, he's now just burning prime time and delivering nothing.

Drake May notes Ward has the fourth quickest time to pressure in the league this year among qualifying QBs, and when pressure comes, it comes quickly; he appears to anticipate pressure before it happens, similar to Jalen Hurts, and doesn't trust the protection on good plays either, resulting in the same muddied look. His 2.0-second slowest time to throw (20 seconds slowest in league) unfolds in an unnerving way: he takes the ball, retreats, waits for everything to play out, does nothing, then runs around trying to make a play. Last year this extra time translated into bomber deep shots, but he's not using his amazing arm this year.

Drake May uses Cam Ward as a contrasting case study to Justin Herbert's current struggles. Ward has the opposite problem from Herbert: he's not taking enough deep shots downfield, whereas Herbert is taking far too many. Ward's conservative deep-ball approach is presented as a cautionary tale of under-aggression, while Herbert's recklessness is over-aggression; both represent deviations from optimal quarterback play.

Drake May contrasts Case Keenum's performance against the Eagles as elite pre-snap communication and clean pre-snap operation with no late play-clock issues; post-snap, despite getting free runners and unaccounted defenders, Keenum quickly got the ball out within structure and avoided negative plays. This is jarring compared to Cam Ward's muddiness, showing how a third-string but experienced quarterback can run a smooth operation both pre-snap and immediately post-snap.

Derrick Henry was stuffed by Jay Shambaram three times in a single game, including twice at the goal line and once on a play involving a fullback. This defensive performance by Shambaram against Henry is notable enough to win the show's Shot of the Week vote with 32% of the vote, indicating Henry faced significant run-stopping pressure in that particular matchup.

Devonta Smith's breakout year is being limited by Jalen Hurts' struggles and the Eagles' defensive adjustments. He was triple-covered on one pass route because the Eagles baited extra defenders into coverage, leaving him with three defenders around him. The Eagles are keeping extra receivers in for pass protection due to Cam Juergens' poor play, which reduces Smith's opportunities and compresses the passing game. Smith appeared frustrated on the sideline during the Monday night game against Chicago.

Drake Maye's 2025 performance has regressed significantly from his 2024 elite level despite facing a tougher schedule. Last year he posted top-two EPA per dropback against top-half defenses and ranked first in EPA per dropback against playoff teams; this year he's middle-of-the-pack even when removing his seven turnover-worthy plays (six picks, one lost fumble). His EPA per dropback on vertical routes collapsed from 0.9 last year to negative 0.35 this year, and his completion percentage over expectation on deep throws fell from plus 13.7% to negative 1.8%, indicating he's flat-out missing throws he used to make.

Drake Maye is facing the third-highest pressure rate in the league and has the fourth-highest sack rate, a stark contrast to last year when he had good protection. The Patriots' offensive line has deteriorated significantly—they've signed someone to the practice squad because they're down to their third string at right guard due to injuries. While Will Campbell (left tackle) is performing well with a 2.8% pressure rate allowed (lowest among left tackles with 25+ snaps), the interior line collapse is contributing to Maye's struggles.

Drake May (the speaker) reflects on his own 2024 decline, noting that his sensational rookie playoff run last year has given way to wheels falling off this season. He groups himself with other young QBs (Cam Ward, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield) who have played really good football in the past but are currently underperforming. The implication is that early success followed by regression is a pattern among this cohort, possibly due to increased expectations, defensive adjustments, or other factors.

Jalen Hurts has regressed significantly in week three against Chicago after two solid weeks. His passing map was heavily compressed to the right side (only 4 of 16 completions to his left), he averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt, and completed only 2 of 6 attempts traveling 10+ yards. He's sixth in EPA on throws over the middle of the field but on just 12 total attempts in three weeks (compared to leader Brock Purdy's 29), indicating he's still not consistently throwing between the numbers despite early-season praise.

Jalen Hurts' pocket presence and decision-making deteriorated in the Chicago game due to lack of trust in his offensive line, particularly center Cam Juergens. He dropped too deep in the pocket (10-11 yards) on one sack, giving his guard a poor angle, and bailed on another play with space to step up and throw. His clock was sped up and he made poor decisions like throwing to TJ Edwards twice. When defenses bring pressure looks (six, seven, sometimes eight guys), Hurts is forced to hold receivers in for blocking, leaving him with only two to three routes available.

Drake May groups Jalen Hurts among young quarterback starters who have played really good football in the past but are currently underperforming. Hurts is a Super Bowl winner, establishing his pedigree, but the episode's broader theme is that multiple talented young QBs (Hurts, Cam Ward, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Drake May) are not currently playing anywhere close to their ceiling or past performance levels.

Drake May notes Jalen Daniels will start this week for Tampa Bay as a replacement; he has more mobility than Mayfield but significantly less NFL experience, being a very experienced college quarterback. The offense will need to change the game plan and scheme in quicker, shorter route answers for pressure rather than waiting for routes to break at 13+ yards, or it will be a recipe for disaster behind the leaky offensive line.

Drake May cites Jalen Daniels as an example of a young quarterback starter who exceeded expectations early (going deeper into playoffs than anticipated) but whose performance has subsequently declined. Daniels is grouped with Drake May as a cautionary tale of early success followed by regression, suggesting that the pattern of young QBs overperforming early then underperforming is a recurring theme.

Drake May assesses Justin Herbert as no longer a tier-two quarterback but struggling to call him tier-three; his decision-making has been atrocious with YOLO picks and YOLO opportunities for defenses every single game. He throws into double coverage in indefensible ways—seam routes with no shot of being open between corner and safety—and gets picked off with a nonchalant demeanor reminiscent of late-career Jay Cutler, appearing not to care about making bad decisions in one-possession games.

Drake May notes that for the longest time the collective football media said if Justin Herbert had all the right things, he'd be unstoppable, but it may be time to change that conversation to 'he might just be what he is.' Herbert is 52-48 in 100 regular season games (50% win rate), similar to Jay Cutler's 75-80 career record (48.4% win rate) across 155 starts. While Herbert hasn't had ideal offensive line or coordinator situations, he's multiple years into his career, and the pattern suggests he may not rise to the occasion as often as needed, with head-scratching killer mistakes creeping into his game at higher volume than his career average.

Drake May suggests the best-case scenario for Herbert is a Trevor Lawrence or Matt Stafford situation: Lawrence had high-end physical tools, inconsistency, and good moments until Liam Cohen arrived in the second half of last season, after which he looked like the guy everyone expected. Stafford was written off in Detroit as never winning anything despite physical talent, but met Sean McVay, won the Super Bowl his first year, and became an MVP-caliber top-five quarterback. Herbert might just need to find the right situation to unlock his talent, as he wouldn't physically change as a quarterback.

Herbert's 2024 performance has deteriorated significantly despite improved offensive line support compared to 2023; he's playing worse under Mike McDaniel despite the scheme change, suggesting the issue is not situational but behavioral. Drake May notes Herbert has become reckless rather than aggressively confident: on 10+ yard attempts, he has 1 TD and 4 INTs with a 44.1 passer rating and 50% adjusted completion percentage, indicating he's attempting impossible windows even for his arm talent. This represents a stark departure from his 2023 efficiency and ball security despite facing similar or less pressure.

Drake May expresses uncertainty about how to unlock Herbert's talent, noting the Mike McDaniel pairing has done the opposite of helping. Herbert's reserved demeanor and lack of emotional volatility were concerns at the Senior Bowl regarding leadership, though teammates responded to him. The core problem remains unsolved: Herbert is a very talented, tough, and historically smart player who has tipped over the line into recklessness this season, and it's unclear what situation change (coaching, team, system) would restore his 2023 form or unlock further growth.

Drake May cites Trevor Lawrence as a success story of quarterback turnaround through coaching change. Lawrence's performance improved dramatically in the second half of last season once Liam Cohen arrived as offensive coordinator, demonstrating that the right scheme and play-caller can unlock a talented quarterback's potential. This example is used to illustrate that Herbert might similarly need a different situation to maximize his arm talent.