The Anatomy of an Upset

Rodgers finally threw the ball downfield against Cincinnati, posting a 3.19-second time to throw (second-highest as a Steeler) and completing 11 of 21 passes on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds for 213 yards at 10.1 yards per attempt—possibly his highest YPA as a Steeler. He had 15 attempts of at least 10 yards downfield (most as a Steeler), three touchdowns, and one interception. The source states: 'They finally opened it up, right?' after fans had been 'begging them to do' this for the entire 2025 season.

Alvin Kamara was blown up in the backfield by Raiders linebacker Nekobe Dean, who fired through the gap and met Kamara in the hole with an old-school, physical tackle that knocked him off his feet.

Baker Mayfield was dumped by Vikings linebacker Eric Wilson on a play where Wilson caved in the middle of the offensive line, ran through the rubble, and delivered a sack; this was a visually stunning defensive execution that highlighted the Vikings' interior pressure.

Bo Nix's inconsistency across four quarters is a significant concern; in the Broncos-Rams game, he was 13 of 25 (52%) for 3.9 yards per attempt in the first three quarters with largely inefficient play, then 4 of 9 with 9.9 yards per attempt in the fourth quarter. The source notes that 60 of his 89 fourth-quarter yards came on back-to-back throws on the final scoring drive, meaning without those two throws his night was 'bad.' The broader pattern is that Nix plays poorly for three quarters and relies on his defense to keep games close, then makes crucial throws in the fourth quarter; this dichotomy is unsustainable and the source expresses frustration that he cannot play efficiently for all four quarters consistently.

Bowers returned in his first game with new head coach and was incredibly entertaining and effective. Only 8 of his 33 routes were from tight alignments; the rest were wide or slot. He was targeted 13 times and ran a ton of great routes, made a bunch of tough contested catches, and was really the engine of the Raiders' offense. The source argues he should be called a wide receiver, not a tight end, based on alignment data, and notes his eventual contract extension will be fascinating because his agent will ask for receiver money while the team lists him as a tight end.

Brock Bowers' production and role as a receiver-tight end hybrid creates significant contract negotiation implications; when healthy and on the field, he is described as unstoppable and very difficult to contain, similar to his college performance. His first game with the Raiders produced 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown, and the source notes the head coach prioritizes getting him on the field because of the offensive possibilities his skill set creates.

Purdy is putting up MVP-caliber numbers through three weeks: third in completion percentage over expectation at +7.5%, second in yards per attempt at 9.5, first in passer rating at 133.1, and first in EPA per play at 0.63—nearly 50% higher than second place (0.44). He has nine touchdowns and one interception with a 22.5% pressure rate, the lowest of any QB with 50+ dropbacks. The source states: 'this is MVP numbers right here. If they sustain it for a large stretch of the season, he's going to be an MVP front runner because this is ridiculous.'

Lance got open three times in the Raiders-Saints game but Shuck didn't hit him on any of those plays. The source notes there were two big explosive plays and another solid gain that went uncompleted, suggesting missed opportunities in the Saints' offensive attack.

Bucky Irving was railroaded on a pass-protection rep against the Vikings' Eric Wilson, getting run over in a situation where he had no realistic chance to win; with two Vikings screaming down the middle, Irving was going to get run over regardless, but Wilson was the one who delivered the finishing blow for the sack.

CeeDee Lamb made plays in the Cowboys-Ravens game in Rio, contributing to the Cowboys' offensive performance in what was described as an early contender for game of the year.

Chris Olave was targeted on a difficult third-and-six play call in the Buccaneers-Raiders game where he was splitting two safeties but angling toward the boundary safety; the quarterback would have needed to make an extremely difficult throw to get him back inside, and the play design put the offense in a position where all three route options were more than five yards past the sticks, leading to an interception.

The source jokingly mentions Loveland in the context of tight ends who might benefit from Brock Bowers' contract extension precedent, but notes sarcastically that Loveland hasn't caught a football or gotten a target yet. The source says 'if he could ever catch a football catch or target at all target would be nice by the way catches,' suggesting Loveland has not been involved in the Bears offense.

Colston Loveland's inability to generate consistent target volume is a concern; the source humorously notes that if he could 'catch a football catch or target at all target would be nice,' highlighting his lack of involvement in the Raiders offense despite being a tight end in a system where Brock Bowers is receiving receiver-scale production.

Dak Prescott showed out in the Cowboys-Ravens game in Rio; the source notes he is an MVP hopeful who had a strong performance in what was described as an early contender for game of the year.

Njoku was sensational in the Commanders' upset of Seattle, running great routes and making tough contested catches as part of the Commanders' offensive attack. The source highlights him as part of the good football both teams played in this game.

Boston is one of the young receivers the Browns have taken deep shots to in their recent wins, though the source notes these deep attempts have been infrequent. The Browns' offense has been built around short air yards (4.9 average) and yards-after-catch efficiency rather than vertical passing, with Boston receiving limited but notable deep-ball opportunities.

Derrick Henry was stopped twice on goal line carries in the Cowboys-Ravens game in Rio; the Cowboys defense got a fourth down goal line stop on Henry, and then stopped him again on a third and one a few plays later through a fullback, limiting his scoring opportunities in the game.

Derrick Henry was stopped twice by Ravens linebacker Jason Barham—once on a goal-line carry and once on a third-and-one situation—highlighting the Ravens' ability to shut down Henry's power running in short-yardage situations.

Fannin was key to the Browns' win over Carolina, implied to be central to their yards-after-catch passing game strategy. The source notes that the short air yards (4.9 average) passing attack is 'very much been a yards-after-catch based passing game,' with Fannin as the primary beneficiary of this scheme.

McCarthy is one of four first-round QBs in the past 25 years to start 10 or fewer games for the team that drafted him, joining Paxton Lynch, Trey Lance, and Johnny Manziel—a historically poor cohort. His stats were described as 'terrible, terrible,' bouncing off the bottom in multiple important statistical categories, making a significant turnaround unlikely. He has one more shot based on first-round status, but if he doesn't play well, he'll be labeled a miss.

McCarthy missed his entire rookie season and returned with a persisting ankle injury in year two, plus other injuries that kept him banged up throughout the year. He wasn't healthy in the offseason either. The source notes that you can't develop a quarterback who is hurt that much, especially a young, inexperienced player who needs reps to improve.

The source mentions JSN (Jalen Hurts' teammate) carving up Seattle's defense early in the Commanders game, suggesting the Eagles' offense was performing well, though the focus is primarily on the Commanders' upset rather than Hurts' specific performance.

Javante Williams looked like vintage Javante Williams from North Carolina in the Cowboys-Ravens game in Rio; the source notes he looks legitimately faster this year, suggesting improved performance and efficiency compared to previous seasons.

Warren had a breakout performance against Cincinnati with multiple explosive runs, including several 25-30+ yard gains; he recorded 11 carries for 108 yards (9.8 yards per carry) to the left side of the Steelers' line, with seven of those 11 carries attacking Dexter Lawrence. The source notes this was the pop and explosiveness they hadn't seen in the first couple of weeks, and every time they looked up Warren was busting off good six, seven, eight-yard gains with occasional 25-30 yard runs.

Lamar Jackson was highly efficient in the Cowboys-Ravens game in Rio despite limited pass attempts; he completed 15 of 20 for 186 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 136.7 rating. The source notes that while the stats don't blow you away, watching the game reveals how good he really was, especially getting out of trouble and making the right decisions with precise ball placement.

Through the first three weeks, Lamar Jackson has been tremendously sharp and efficient; he completed 15 of 20 passes for 186 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 136.7 passer rating against the Ravens' Week 3 opponent. The source notes his ball placement is 'otherworldly,' his accuracy rivals Mario Mahomes on tight-window throws, and he's been executing at an elite level week-in and week-out under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, not only picking up where he left off with previous coordinator Monken but potentially ascending further.

Mariota was very good across from Sam Darnold in the Commanders' upset of Seattle, making tight window throws repeatedly against a Hawks defense that doesn't allow much space. The source notes his execution on those throws into tight windows was what made the Commanders' offense work despite lackluster overall offensive statistics. Mariota also changed a critical play at the line on third-and-long late in the game, seeing the blitz and adjusting the back to a run around the end that barely worked and sealed the game.

Pat Bryant drew a pass interference penalty in the Broncos-Rams game by selling contact through acting; the source notes that while the refs were fooled by Bryant's flailing, they don't have the benefit of replay for PI calls (which was removed after Al Riveron torpedoed the review system), so the refs' mistake is understandable even if incorrect.

Wilson was the target on a big downfield ball from Rodgers in the Steelers' win over Cincinnati, part of the team's newly aggressive vertical passing attack.

Darnold returned from injury against Seattle and was incredibly sharp from the start, not rusty at all. He was particularly effective on tight window throws, going 3-for-4 for 40 yards and a touchdown with 10.0 yards per attempt on tight window throws and a 128 rating. His completion percentage over expected on tight windows was 44.4%, which the source calls ridiculous since that number typically declines under pressure or into tight windows but jumped 40+ percentage points. The source credits his execution on tight window throws as what made the Commanders' upset win possible.

Trey McBride's contract expectations are affected by Brock Bowers' receiver-scale compensation; if Bowers receives top receiver money despite the tight end designation, other agents for tight ends like McBride would use that precedent to justify raises for their clients.

Trey McBride delivered a standout physical play this week with a pile-driver stiff arm that impressed the source; he's among the top shot-of-the-week nominees for the sheer force and impact of the play, demonstrating his willingness and ability to move the chains through physicality.

Tyler Warren is mentioned as an up-and-coming tight end whose contract expectations could be influenced by Brock Bowers' receiver-scale compensation; if Bowers sets a precedent for tight ends receiving top receiver money, Warren's future negotiating position would be strengthened.

Zay Flowers looked 'all the way back' in the Cowboys-Ravens game in Rio, indicating a return to full health and performance after previous injury concerns.