10 Players We Can't Stop Drafting In 2026 Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 17 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 9, 2026
Published
Sun, August 9, 2026
39
Player insights
39
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAustin EkelerBreece HallBucky IrvingCeeDee LambChase BrownChris GodwinChris RodriguezChristian McCaffreyChristian WatsonColston LovelandDerrick HenryDevonta FreemanDrake London
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection34:46
Zack Charbanet is bullish on AJ Brown for redraft leagues, citing historical data that elite receivers with 25-30% target shares moving to environments with 40+ more passing yards per game see an average 28% increase in production. Despite age 29 concerns and a degenerative knee condition, Brown is a recommended round-two pick for roster balance, fitting the profile of a high-target-share receiver in a better offensive environment.
Insight pageAustin Ekeler
NegativeProjection3:28
Dwayne McFarland compares Kenneth Walker's receiving profile to Austin Ekeler, placing Walker just below the elite tier of receiving backs while emphasizing that Walker's role in the Chiefs' offense makes him a viable fantasy asset.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeValue6:34
Dwayne McFarland mentions taking Kenneth Walker over Breece Hall in a specific draft, highlighting his strong conviction in Walker's potential for the upcoming season.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveBreakout20:40
Bucky Irving is a high-upside target in the Liam Coen offense who could benefit from designed targets similar to Travis Etienne's usage. He is preferred over safer, lower-ceiling options like Tony Pollard. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is considered a smaller obstacle to his potential than Etienne was.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
NegativeUsage65:40
CeeDee Lamb faces significant target competition from George Pickens, which serves as a contrast to the target environment surrounding other elite receivers like AJ Brown.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveBreakout17:59
Chase Brown is noted for his breakout performance, increasing from 4.9 to 16 fantasy points per game after Joe Mixon left the team.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeInjury15:20
Zack Charbanet references Chris Godwin's recovery from a tightrope procedure as a historical benchmark for injury impact on performance.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeUsage13:36
Chris Rodriguez is viewed as a legitimate threat to Bashel Tutin's workload, specifically as the projected short-yardage back due to his connection with offensive coordinator Liam Cohen. His presence creates uncertainty regarding whether Tutin can deliver on his round-five ADP if the backfield becomes a committee. Additionally, he is noted as a depth chart addition, though considered a smaller obstacle to Bucky Irving's potential than Travis Etienne was.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection3:28
Dwayne McFarland classifies Kenneth Walker as one tier below elite receiving backs like Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Austin Ekeler, but argues that Walker's receiving profile is still strong enough to be highly productive in an offense lacking other dominant target earners.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveInjury70:24
Christian Watson is highlighted as a positive recovery example, having returned from a late-season 2024 injury to average nearly 16 fantasy points per game in the contests where he remained healthy.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout30:20
Colston Loveland is a high-upside tight end and the number four all-time prospect in the rookie supermodel, averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game as a starter. He offers a rare combination of downfield ability and high target volume in a consolidated Ben Johnson offense. While Zack Charbanet ranks him behind established veterans like Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, he is a viable 2nd-round target in tight end premium formats with the potential to finish as the overall TE1.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
NegativeRole14:53
Zack Charbanet uses Derrick Henry as the archetype for a pure rushing running back who relies on being on a high-scoring team to provide fantasy value.
Insight pageDevonta Freeman
PositiveBreakout17:01
Devonta Freeman is cited as a historical success story for a second-year running back who boomed after an incumbent starter (Steven Jackson) left the team, jumping from 5.6 to 21.8 fantasy points per game.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeValue65:17
While Drake London is a talented player with a safe floor of 16.5 fantasy points per game, he lacks the ceiling outcome of AJ Brown due to uncertainty regarding the Falcons' quarterback situation.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection36:18
Drake Maye is an undervalued asset currently falling to the 7th or 8th round in drafts. Zack Charbanet highlights his efficiency, noting he managed 262 passing yards per game last season despite a weak supporting cast, and views him as an excellent correlation stack option for those drafting AJ Brown.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
PositiveValue22:38
JK Dobbins is highlighted as a late-round value who could provide similar production to Tony Pollard, serving as a useful short-term starter.
Insight pageJadarian Price
PositiveValue16:48
Jadarian Price is identified as a high-upside, late-round target available in round six, often at a discount compared to Bucky Irving. He is expected to immediately take over early-down work in a run-heavy Shanahan-style scheme with high win-total projections, and is viewed as a potential contributor for 8-10 weeks, dismissing narratives of a slow start.
Insight pageJames Conner
PositiveBreakout17:06
James Conner is highlighted as a breakout success story, increasing his production from 1.1 to 22 fantasy points per game after Le'Veon Bell sat out.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveBreakout6:36
James Cook is a breakout candidate who saw his production increase from 7 to 14 fantasy points per game following the departure of Devin Singletary from the Bills. Despite this, Dwayne McFarland prefers Kenneth Walker over Cook in draft rankings due to Walker's higher explosive potential.
Insight pageJay Ajayi
PositiveBreakout18:17
Jay Ajayi is highlighted for his breakout, rising from 4.5 to 14.5 fantasy points per game following the departure of Lamar Miller.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeValue6:37
Dwayne McFarland notes that he selected Kenneth Walker over Jonathan Taylor in his draft, emphasizing his aggressive stance on Walker's value.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeValue23:11
Despite being a favorite of Zack Charbanet, Jonathan Brooks is seeing his ADP rise significantly, making him an expensive round-eight pick rather than a late-round dart throw.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveValue22:36
Jordan Mason is recommended as a late-round value and a potential stop-gap option for fantasy managers looking to pair him with higher-upside players.
Insight pageJosh Gordon
PositiveProjection63:38
Josh Gordon is cited as a historical example of a wide receiver whose fantasy production spiked—from 10 to 23 points per game—after moving to a more favorable offensive environment under Norv Turner.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue0:16
Dwayne McFarland identifies Kenneth Walker as his highest-exposure running back in drafts within the first four rounds, recommending him as a high-value target in the second round. Walker's historical NFL data (1.40 YPRR, 21% TPRR) aligns with top-six running back profiles. Zack Charbanet notes increased receiving usage projections, citing 46 catches in a limited 2024 season and 60-plus catch potential; Walker averaged 20.8 PPG from week 16 through the playoffs. McFarland notes he has taken Walker over Breece Hall, James Cook, and Jonathan Taylor, citing strong conviction in his explosive potential.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveBreakout17:50
Kyren Williams is identified as a rare, successful waiver wire breakout who saw his production rise from 3.8 to 21.4 fantasy points per game following the mid-season trade of Cam Akers.
Insight pageMalachi Fields
PositiveRole19:56
Zack Charbanet highlights Malachi Fields as a key round-three addition who will likely see significant playing time as a big blocking slot receiver, supporting the team's goal to establish the run.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue33:33
Malik Nabers is a preferred 2nd-round target whom Zack Charbanet would prioritize over Colston Loveland. He is expected to be active for Week 1 despite a minor procedure, as he has been seen practicing and cutting, making him a strong bet to play.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeInjury15:22
Zack Charbanet references Mark Andrews' recovery from a tightrope procedure as a historical benchmark for injury impact on performance.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeUsage3:42
Dwayne McFarland identifies Rashee Rice as the primary target earner in the Chiefs' offense, which creates a favorable environment for Kenneth Walker to receive checkdown targets when the primary read is covered.
Insight pageReggie Wayne
PositiveProjection63:29
Reggie Wayne serves as a historical precedent for wide receivers moving to better environments; at age 34, he saw his production jump from 12.2 to 17 fantasy points per game after joining Andrew Luck.
Insight pageStevan Ridley
PositiveBreakout18:25
Stevan Ridley is mentioned as a breakout player who went from 4 to 13 fantasy points per game after BenJarvus Green-Ellis left the team.
Insight pageTevin Coleman
PositiveBreakout18:03
Tevin Coleman is cited as a breakout player who improved from 4.1 to 14.7 fantasy points per game during a high-powered Falcons offense led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeInjury15:24
Zack Charbanet notes that Tony Pollard's fantasy production dropped from 15.5 points per game to 12.7 points per game following his tightrope procedure. He is also mentioned as a player with a lower ceiling compared to Bucky Irving, suggesting he is a safer but less desirable option for those chasing upside.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeRole17:25
Travis Etienne is discussed as the incumbent starter whose presence or departure dictates the breakout potential for his backfield counterparts; he is noted as a significant obstacle for depth chart competitors.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
NegativeUsage3:49
Dwayne McFarland notes that Travis Kelce is entering the twilight of his career, which contributes to the lack of dominant target competition in the Chiefs' offense, potentially benefiting Kenneth Walker's target share.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeRole31:18
Trey McBride is a tight end who works underneath the coverage; he remains ranked ahead of Colston Loveland due to his proven multi-season production and established collegiate track record.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
NegativeInjury2:00
Zach Charbonnet is currently a sixth-round draft pick, but faces significant skepticism regarding his recovery from a postseason injury. While some reports suggest he could be ready for Week 1, Zack Charbanet remains cautious, noting the team may delay his involvement until Thanksgiving. Upon return, Charbonnet may face a ramp-up period and could see his snap share capped at 25-30% if Jadarian Price performs well.
Insight pageZack Moss
NegativeValue20:24
The Zack Moss and Chase Brown situation is used as a corollary to compare the current depth chart competition between Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Bucky Irving.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:05breaking down mustdraft flag plant players. We are into August. The NFL season is just weeks away and I'm joined today by Dwayne McFarland of Fantasy
0:16Life. Dwayne's going to share some of his favorite player values for this season. Dwayne, let's start off right out at the top. Is Kenneth Walker poised
0:25to be the next massive running back that signed as a free agent value? We saw it in 2024 where Saquon Barkley, Derk
0:33Henry, Josh Jacobs were all league winners. It feels like the drum beats are there for Walker to have just a phenomenal fantasy season.
0:40>> Yeah, I love Kenneth Walker. Uh, and like an easy way to state it, we're going to mostly focus on reddraft today,
0:46but I've obviously done more best drafts to this point. And Theo, I don't know how you are, but I don't make massive
0:53massive stands against ADP in like the first couple of rounds. Like I kind of I generally want to mix things up,
0:57injuries and all those things, but I will tell you of all the running backs I've drafted in the first five rounds or
1:03first four rounds, my highest exposure is to Kenneth Walker. And you have to take him in round two. So that tells you
1:09how much that I really do love Kenneth Walker this year. Um, and it's pretty simple for me. Uh if we look at two
1:15years ago when he was essentially in a full-time role, 16 and a half fantasy points per game and that was still
1:20carrying part you know and that's PPR that was still sharing part of the workload with Zack Charbanet and then last year we saw the complete eraser
1:27right of Zack Charbanet. Uh not that we like it. It was due to an injury but in the playoffs you saw the spike of 24.9
1:33fantasy points per game. But my big thesis really on Kenneth Walker for the last two years has been guys, this is
1:40actually a good receiver out of the back field. But people associate and are clinging to the priors of who he was in
1:48college where he just wasn't targeted very much. But whenever you look at his yards per route run, Theo um historically running back ones, you
1:56know, are right around 1.43 yards per route run with a 20% targets per route run. If we look at Kenneth Walker, 1.40
2:03240 and 21% targets per route run. So, he aligns with top six running backs.
2:08He's not your second level threat like a CMC or a Chimera or or Eckler like in their heyday or even to the Jir Gibbs
2:15level, but he is one tier below that and that's good enough when you get to an offense like the Chiefs where you're
2:22going to have Patrick Mahomes. We also know that Rasheed Rice is by far like their best target earner. We have some
2:29questions around him this year. Travis Kelce moving into his Twilight. And when you see these players like Walker um who are like really they're not elite
2:37receiving profiles, but they're really good. Where they tend to shine is when they land on a team where really there's only one other dominant target earner
2:43because what that means is it's much more likely that the quarterback when they drop back and they get that first read and it's not there. Theo the
2:50checkdown option becomes a lot more viable. So even though he isn't this downfield threat and then and then >> the drum beat from camp man is really
2:59matching this right and they're talking about how much they want to get him work in the screen game. They're also talking
3:05about oh my god he's a three down threat and really >> sometimes we listen to those things but when I look at Walker and I'm like man
3:12his historical data profile since he's been in the NFL actually aligns with all that and they just paid this dude. So
3:19explosive rush rate 12.3%.
3:22So well above the league average of nine and a half%. So you're telling me you're going to give me a player on a team that
3:28wants to run the ball more. We have a pretty good offensive line. They don't have other great target earners. He's been really good as a receiver out of
3:36the backfield. I think the sky is the absolute limit for Kenneth Walker. I'm playing in a fantasy life league right now. And you know Theo, you know how it
3:45goes when you're playing with your buddies and your co-workers. That's where you make your stands. I have the ninth pick in the first round. I just
3:53took Kenneth Walker. I didn't risk it.
3:54I'm like, I'm just taking Kenneth Walker. I took him over Genty. I took him over James Cook. I took him over JT.
4:00I took him over all of those players. If you look at my tiers and rankings on fantasylife.com, he's right there with
4:04them. So, if you guys prefer one of those other guys, great. But the real beauty of it is is you guys don't have
4:09to draft Kenneth Walker in round one. I had to do it for my name recognition with my teammates because I didn't want
4:15them to snipe me. O, you get to draft him in round two of your drafts. That's the beauty.
4:20>> And I think that's the what he opens you up to is, you know, we talk about the ability to go hero RB this year. Uh, you
4:27can get access to one of those elite wide receivers in round one and then followed up with Kenneth Walker in round
4:33two. I just updated my rankings at Roto Wire, my PPR rankings. I moved Walker up. Um, you can use the code Theo20, get
4:4020% off of any uh subscription. But it's comes down to it like like you said the drum beats in camp the every chance they
4:47get they're talking up his receiving usage and it's not theoretical with Walker Dwayne we had the 2024 season where it was 46 catches and I believe
4:56only uh what is it 11 12 games played uh so we had a limited season that would have been potentially a 60 plus catch
5:03year for him so we would have been able to point to look Kenneth Walker's capable of giving us 60 plus catches I
5:09think we're there and then if we you know we talk about the the the stats towards the end of the season from week
5:1416 on, including the playoffs, 20.8 points per game. I think the Chiefs offense, he's the focal point there.
5:21Very clearly, they want to do some big things with Kenneth Walker. And Dwayne, you've been doing this a long time. We
5:26used to have not not like you're old, but you've been doing this a long time.
5:30Uh, Andy Reid used Andy Reid used to be the the running back whisperer. Don't you remember? Yeah. He was Andy Reid used to
5:37produce all these guys. We used to say, "Oh, we want that running back in this Andy Reid offense. Look at all these
5:42guys in Philly. Jamal Charles early on some some of that Kareem Hunt usage. So I think we're we're there with Kenneth
5:48Walker. I think he's going to be tremendous. And like you said, you don't have to even take him at like the 2011.
5:54In a lot of leagues, you're able to get him at like the 205 206 range. So listen Theo ESPN pick 26 right now. Sleeper
6:03pick 23. You're getting him at the end of round two. Yahoo a little sharper going uh 18.6. So right around pick 19.
6:11Obviously over on under underdog like he's at a 15. You know I mean people have been drafting a lot there. But like
6:16real time sports he's picked 17. So you do have to take him early in round two.
6:20But man in a lot of these leagues that folks listening you can be playing in a home league. Kenneth Walker is a mid
6:26round two to late round two pick. And dude, where I think that becomes beautiful is like if you have one of the
6:32first four picks and you get Gibbs or Bejon or Jamar Chase or Puka and you're coming back with Kenneth Walker. Oh my
6:40god. Like that's like chef's kiss.
6:43>> Yeah, 100%. And I I I just love the flexibility that gives you if you want to go running back running back. You
6:48could potentially get two top five running back scorers with Walker, another running back in round one, and then the ability to go hero this year
6:56and make Walker like the anchor running back for your team in round two. I just love that flexibility. Uh you're the
7:03like I have it's been a slow drum beat with this, but I feel like more and more analysts are getting behind Cam
7:09Scataboo. Just had Alex Dunlap of Roster Watch on. He talked about Scataboo as like a league winning value. I moved Cam
7:17Scataboo up to 42 overall in my rankings and I feel like that might end up be kind of low with when when you look at
7:25just how good he could be when we get to the season. Uh you're going to talk about Malik Neighbors a little bit
7:31later, but the fact that Neighbors is back, the Giants offense is going to be way more balanced than when we were
7:38evaluating Scataboo maybe in early July, and we thought Neighbors was going to miss some time. Scataboo last year averaged 19.8 touches per game. He
7:49averaged the highest points per game average of any rookie running back.
7:53Dwayne, where would he be drafted right now if he would have played out a full season? I think he would be getting
7:58drafted to the round two three turn uh probably right in that range may and I might be wrong. It might even be a
8:04little bit higher than that. But I mean if you look at Scataboo, if you look at running backs the most predictive stat
8:08to the next season and obviously we have to look under the hood. There's a lot of components that go on. But I mean he
8:14became the starter in week two. Week one was still more of a split. He became the starter. It's only a six game sample,
8:20but he averaged 18.8 PPR points per game. So, he really is the cheat code archetype that we want to look for,
8:27which is really what I care about like a lot for running backs. So, you know, I've kind of broken running backs down
8:34into four archetypes. You've got a receiving archetype where over 50% of their fantasy points come from receiving. Then you've got the dual
8:41threat archetype, which are basically like right there split. Then you get more to your balance guys. They still are getting more of their work through
8:47rushing, but they're not complete nothings in the receiving game. And then you have your true guys that are just rushing on you. think more Derrick
8:53Henry, right? And they have to be on good teams. They have to be on teams that are going to score a lot of points.
8:57The beauty of the dual threat and the receiving archetypes is the fact that they can overcome bad environments. Like they they just insulate you so much. And
9:06if the Giants offense were to somehow surprise us this year like the ceiling for Scataboo is just amazing. Now, what's depressed is ADP is real. It
9:16really comes back to the injury that he suffered at the end of last year. He did have the tightroppe procedure. We saw
9:20what that did to Chris Godwin last year, but an older player. We saw what it did to Mark Anders. Tony Pard, man, I'm a
9:26Cowboys fan. When Tony Pard was was really banging with the Cowboys, like 15 and a half fantasy points per game, comes back from the tight rope, scores
9:3312.7. So, I I get the injury concern, but man, whenever I I just keep reading everything from camp, he's not limited
9:42at all. He's a young player. uh Jeff Mueller on Twitter like he's been very he's been watching all the stuff with
9:49Scataboo, you know, so like even the PE I'm not a doctor but there are doctors that study fantasy for us today, Theo
9:54and I love to read what they have to say about it. He's very much in on Scataboo and I just it's the round four pick man.
10:01It's like to your point like if I start off with three receivers like Scataboo is like my top priority in round four.
10:08Like you know him and him and Lovelin like are my two guys I'm loving the most in round four. a lot of receivers I
10:13really like in that range as well. We'll talk about some of them, but it really comes back to historically when we look
10:19at the guys that break fantasy leagues, they can do three things, right? And the main thing is they can catch passes.
10:26Check. And and this matches his college profile as well, which I think is important when you're talking about a year or two player. And then they can
10:33get the carries inside the five yard line, which also matched his college, you know, profile. Um, you're you you now get to be buddies with Ian Hardit
10:41like I am. And Ian I he actually always brings up that game. I think it was against uh Texas State had where
10:48Scataboo went completely bonkers. But >> he's got the size to do that. Now the explosiveness is not the same as we get
10:55with some of these other players. So like that's a little bit more of a ding, but that's the least important right of
11:00the three components. But you have a guy that can handle the receiving workload, a guy that can scare that can score the
11:05touchdowns down inside the five. We've got an offense with Harbaugh. Naggi's there, but at least and I don't love Greg Roman, but I look at the moves that
11:13the team made. You add likely, you bring over Patrick Ricard, right? You you've already got a guy in Theo Johnson there.
11:20You let Well Robinson go. This is going to be a heavy personnel team. This is going to be a team that wants to
11:25establish it on the ground. They also want to like lean into the dual threat nature of Jackson Dart, which is running
11:31the ball plenty and trying to be efficient when they do pass. And I just I think all of these things just stack
11:37up so well for Cam Scataboo. And I think he's an absolute smash in round four of fantasy drafts. He's a he's a tone
11:44setter for this for the way I think they want to play football based on the personnel moves with like you said
11:50Francis Maui Noah bringing in Patrick Ricard and then sort of the underrated move was they draft Malachi Fields in round three where Malachi Fields if they
11:59use him as like the big slot role like a big blocking slot like Fields I a lot of people thought Fields was projected to
12:07be maybe the top blocking wide receiver in this entire draft class and I think he'll be on the field at a ton this
12:13year. So, I'm in on Scataboo. I think Scataboo has maybe the most upside of the running backs in that range. And
12:19Dwayne, we might be doing this again next year and next August. We might be saying Cam Scaboo is going like 20th
12:25overall and we're totally fine with it.
12:26So, >> well, and again, that's your heruristic when you're drafting a player. You're trying to think that question. Is this a
12:34player that I could very likely be drafting in round one next year? And the criteria that you're looking for are part of what we've talked about. You
12:42want like this dual threat or receiving profile and then you also want a player that's young and in the ascending portion of their career, which Scataboo
12:51is. And if he like if Scataboo scores 19 fantasy points per game or 18 this year, he'll at a minimum be a round two pick
12:58next year if they don't draft someone else to compete with him. Like if he crushes for 20 fantasy points per game,
13:03he'll be going in round one next season.
13:06>> That's I mean I can see it. I can absolutely see it. Yeah. Let's talk about another year two running back and
13:13this has been like drip drip drip drip drip. We've had some analysts who are starting to be head over heels about
13:19Bashel Tutin. You're flag planting him today. Ryan Heath made him a flag plant.
13:24JJ Zachares made him a flag plant and now Dwayne McFarland is naming him as one of his flag plants. How good could
13:31his season be? What does it depend on? I is let's say Rodriguez gets mixed in.
13:37Can Tutin still deliver with way fewer touches than Travis ETN had last year?
13:43Are you looking at this as a explosive play guy and receiving production play?
13:48How are you viewing Toutin when like we're talking about upside outcomes?
13:53>> Yeah. So, I want to kind of like set the table, you know, with Tuton and and and there's some different variables that
13:58are going going on right now that are beyond just like what we think of Tooten as the player. Number one, the fantasy
14:06community because of so many sharp analysts like you and JJ and Ryan Heath and people like that, they have brought more attention to
14:16how aggressive you might want to be on a profile like this, right? And so historically, if you look back at ADP, a
14:23setup for a player like Tutin Theo would have been around 7 to nine pick. It was so much more palatable, right? But now
14:32the market has shifted and you have to take a player like this in round five.
14:37But I think the market has appropriately shifted to moving a player like this to round five. So the other thing I would
14:43say is this. Let's say you're starting your draft and you go Puka Nua Malik Neighbors whatever Nico Collins falls back to you and you're in a league that
14:53starts three receivers as PPR. It's really hard to turn down like that start. And so now you're immediately in a spot where it's like, okay, maybe you
15:01get Scataboo in round four. I need another big swing in round five. Toutin really does fit the bill. And I I and
15:08some of the naysaying around Toutin, I'm not trying to dismiss it, but most of it comes back to one Chris Rodriguez
15:14signing with the team, which I think is real. We get it. He's got the Liam Cohen connection from college and all those
15:18things. And even the beat reporting is like, look, I think he's going to be the short yardage guy. But what I will say,
15:24you know, with Toutin is he's a guy that while he wasn't that explosive last year, it was on a small sample and I
15:32think we really need to lean into still valuing his collegiate profile over the small sample that we saw last year. And
15:39so for me, that's a big part of the calculus. Do I wish I could still get Beasel Tutin in round seven to nine?
15:45Yeah. But if I'm in a league where I'm weak at running back, Beijel Tutin in round five is absolutely on my road map.
15:51Now, if I start off and, you know, maybe I'm picking from the end of round one and I start with, you know, I don't
15:58know, James Cook and Kenneth Walker, then I'm I'm not I may not try to jam Basil Tutin in round five. It comes down
16:05to how I built my roster because the questions are real. But here's the bottom line. If you want the upside of a
16:10league winning running back, and we don't know how this split's going to turn out. We know the way we're projecting it, but he has the traits
16:16that if it runs pure for him, he could be someone that we're drafting in round two next year of fantasy draft. He's got
16:24that kind of profile. He was a solid receiver in college, very explosive player, plays on an offense that we like. And Theo, it's in the range of
16:31outcomes that he just gets 70% of the work and and the other guys are not involved. If the other guys are involved
16:37as people think, he's not going to be a smash in round five. But here's the problem. You only get there's only so
16:43many options this year based on the way the running back landscape sits to get an archetype like Toutin. Jadarian Price is the other one and he's in round six
16:52and I take him as well. You know, we're trying to keep it tight on this show or so we're sticking with Tutin. But I
16:56would say that Jadarian Price in round six is very similar. But here's the one other thing that I want to call out. So
17:01historically, if you look back at running backs who in their rookie season averaged six fantasy points per game or less heading into year two, the hit
17:10rates are fairly terrible. But the list of guys that actually did end up booming, they all had one major thing in
17:18common. They had an incumbent starter leave that was good. Who left? ETN.
17:25Etchin. Sorry, Travis. Etchin's fine.
17:28ETN's fine here. Yeah, >> Travis Etchin. I actually think that's just more of a dialect thing from like New Orleans than like the proper way to
17:35maybe announce it. But >> it's his name, so he gets to decide. But here here's the list. Devontto Freeman.
17:41Steven Jackson left. He went from 5.6 fantasy points to 21.8. James Connor.
17:46This is kind of wonky because Levian Bells just decided I'm setting out.
17:50Well, James Connor went from 1.1 to 22 fantasy points per game. Kairen Williams Cam Acres gets traded in season next year. He goes from 3.8 to 21.4. four
17:59fantasy points per game. Chase Brown, 4.9 fantasy points per game. Joe Mixon leaves, he jumps to 16. Tevin Coleman, this was just a freak Kyle Shanahan
18:08offense. It was the year Matt Ryan went nuclear and was like the QB4. Julio Jones was the wide receiver one. Like
18:13basically anyone on the Falcons that year was good. But Coleman went from 4.1 to 14.7. But Jay Aai went from 4.5 to 14
18:21and a half. That's Lamar Miller leaving.
18:23James Cook went from 7 to 14. That's Devin Singleary leaving. Even Stephen Ridley, man, you have the law firm Ben Jarvis Green, Ellis Lee, he goes from
18:31four fantasy points per game to 13. So when I look at like what's happened here, the bottom line is I'm like, okay,
18:38Chris Rodriguez has been added, but they liked Beijel Tutin. Travis ETN being gone is the bigger story. ETN was a much
18:46bigger obstacle than Chris Rodriguez.
18:48And I'm going to say the final thing I'll say is this could go wrong, guys, but it doesn't matter. You need if
18:55you've started your draft in in the way that I talked and you were more heavy on the receivers or whatever and you're
19:00looking for your running back too, you should not be looking for medium projection. You should be looking for ceiling. And if you get it wrong, fine.
19:07You will find somebody off the waiverwire to score 12 fantasy points.
19:10If that's what you know, if let's say for some reason Beijel Tutin averages eight, you'll figure it out. You'll find someone. But what you're not going to
19:18find most likely is someone that could score 18 to 19. And history shows that over the last three seasons. Theo, if
19:24you look at waiverwire claims for running backs, you're not finding league winners. The only one has been Kairen Williams. They just are not available on
19:33the waiverwire like people think. And that's because these platforms have all improved. All the latest news is in the draft. Your your your fantasy manager
19:40that's showing up that doesn't study, shows up to the draft the same day as you, if he's using ESPN or Yahoo's app,
19:46he has all the latest news right there at his disposal. That used to be a differentiator in our industry and it's
19:52not anymore. And so that means less options on the waiverwire because those players are getting drafted unless you're in a really small league.
19:59>> It's definitely the information age for fantasy football and there's the like knowing the depth charts better. Uh that's an edge that's sort of
20:06disappeared. Guys can catch up late in the summer like you said, but I think understanding upside when it's presented to you and understanding structural
20:16drafting is very underrated right now.
20:18And like you said, years ago, we could take the counting stats of Bashel Tutin and he would have been there in round
20:24seven, round eight. I mean, we saw it with Chase Brown. Chase Brown Zack Moss corollary is kind of similar to the
20:30Chris Rodriguez uh Bashel Tutin corollary we're seeing right now. Um but Bashel Tutin gives you a chance where if we just follow what Liam Cohen running
20:40backs have been able to do, beating ADP, it was a cheaper bet last year with Travis ETN. Uh it was a cheaper bet with
20:46with Bucky Irving in Tampa Bay, but it's this consistent production. We get the design targets to these guys. ETN had six receiving touchdowns last year. I
20:56think Tutin could get there this year that way, too. So, I'm with you. We're going to swing for upside there. You
21:02know, you can look at the guys in the tier behind him and say, "Oh, I can get by with a Tony Pard," but you're not
21:08going to get that same sort of upside outcome. It's not even close when it comes to Tootin. expand on your Jadarian
21:14price thoughts because I think he's very important. Toutin has steamed up in ADP, but Price I'm still able to get even in
21:21NFC I got him at the 612. FFPC we're seeing him somewhere in that sixth round. Occasionally gets pulled up into the late fifth, but call him a sixth
21:30round pick. Sometimes that's a round and a half cheaper than Toutin.
21:35>> Yeah. Two quick things before I hit price to crystallize this for people because people think, "Okay, if I get a
21:42running back in round five, man, I I just want to lock in 14 fantasy points per game." No, you don't. Do you know
21:47how many fantasy points per game you need from a round five running back since 2016 to really be a league winner
21:54for you? You need 17 and a half. It doesn't matter that it's round five.
21:59there's only so many of these players available and and the round almost ADP just becomes how do I get as many of
22:06them on my team based on the way ADP is working out right if you go to round six it's still in the 17s if you go into
22:13round seven it's still in the 17s so it's not all ADP is relative as to how much value you might squeeze out of the
22:20player and we would love to get them cheaper but the bottom line is you want as many of them on your roster as you
22:24can get and the other thing is you're rarely getting league winners from like rounds 12 151 in that range. And that's
22:31the range where if you're like, man, I'm a little worried about Basil Tutin or Jadarian Price. You can come back then
22:36and get a Jordan Mason. You can come back then and get a JK Dobbins, the guy that could score 12 to that can do what
22:42Tony Pard's going to do four rounds later. And fine, maybe you need to use them for the first three to four weeks
22:47and and that can be valid until Toutin or whoever breaks out. And but you just have to figure out and that's where
22:54tears are so helpful, right? because you start to group players in these ways and you start to find all right like who
22:59who's the cheapest stop gap option I could get like a Mason or a Dobbins that I could pair with these guys later but I
23:05don't I don't want to forego grabbing the upside that I can get with Tutin because we don't have as much of that
23:11later in drafts and this year's really tough Theo because like even Jonathan Brooks who I love another one of my most
23:15drafted players but like he's steaming so high it's like you know you're going to spin a round eight pick on him so
23:21it's not like you're getting another dart throw similar to Tutin in round 11 you're Not like these guys are moving up. So Jarian Price, I'll just say with
23:29this one, it's really straightforward for me. Like George Helani and Emanuel Wilson guys, come on. Yeah.
23:36>> Like I get it. There's a hive or whatever. Um and and and the Zack Charbanet injury information is certainly worth listening to, but man,
23:44I'm still listening to the doctors. This was a postseason injury to Charbanet, and we've heard this, oh, he might be ready for week one. I'll believe it when
23:52I see it. And Jadarian Price is a round one pick. And so when I look at this, I dug really deeper into the late round
24:01one running backs and early round two from an NFL draft standpoint. Guys that have gone at the end of round one, early
24:07round two. Um, and I started to look at like what were the commonalities of the guys that really just erupted. And it
24:14was pretty straightforward. They landed on a weak depth chart. And the way I looked at these depth charts, Theo, is they would have been depth charts at the
24:22time. We would have looked at them, not just hindsight. At the time, we would have looked at them and said, "Man, this
24:28is weak." Naji Harris, he played 92% of the because the other thing you hear about Jarian Price is, "Well, he's going to start the season
24:35slow and then Charbanet is going to take away his work late." And so, I don't believe in the start the season slow
24:40narrative. I think you're going to get Jadarian Price for, you know, 8 to 10 weeks and then we'll see what happens
24:46with Charbanet. But by then, if Jaderian Price is crushing, that could push Charbanet's timeline. It also doesn't mean Charbanet is going to come back and
24:53zap him. Or you could just trade him, right? If you decide in week eight the Sharps vibes are getting crazy on you
24:58and you want to get rid of him, you can.
25:00But look at these guys. So Naji Harris picked 24 in the NFL draft. He landed on a weak depth chart. 92% snaps over the
25:08first four games. TJ Yelen, not that we thought he was great or anything, but it was a weak depth chart. 75% of the snaps
25:14over the first four games. Clyde Edwards Alair, we all agree like he stunk, right? 68% of the snaps over the first
25:20four weeks. Quenchan Judkins basically had a helicopter drop him off onto the field for week two, man. And the dude once he got on the Browns without being
25:28there in training camp at all in weeks three and four had 59% of the snap. So when you start to get into the guys that
25:34really were late round one picks, early round two picks in the same ranges like where Jadarian Price went that did not
25:40hit, they landed on teams with strong incumbent starters. Javvante Williams had to deal with Melvin Gordon. Sony Michelle had to deal with James White, a
25:48passcatching back that was established.
25:50Trevian Henderson last year had to deal with Arandre Stevenson. DeAndre Swift, people forget Adrien Peterson was on the team when he first got to the Lions.
25:58Rashad Penny, he's the exception. He had a very weak chart, but Chris Carson, a round seven pick from the year before,
26:04he he snatched his chain, so it's possible. Nick Chub, he landed on a team that had just signed Carlos Hyde that
26:10off seasonason. And so he only had a 5% snap share over those first four games.
26:14So when you look at it like where Jadarian Price has landed and I look at this depth chart, I'm sorry, George
26:20Salani and Emanuel Wilson, that's a weak depth chart. And I think Jadarian Price is immediately taking over all the early down work. I have concerns about him in
26:29the passing game, but I'm getting a guy in round six, Theo, on it with a great defense on a team that wants to pound
26:35the rock. We're gonna have Shanahan's scheme there. Yes, Kubak is gone, but Flurry comes from Shanahan. They're going to run a lot of the same kind of
26:42stuff. So, oddsmakers have this team at 10 and a half wins. Dude, like I'm so in on Jadarian Price in round six. And I
26:50don't care if I'm wrong. I'm betting on the ceiling case for Jadarian Price.
26:55>> I mean, you could envision a scenario where he has like 900 rushing yards and he has 11 touchdowns. it just it just be
27:02the touchdown guy in this offense. And he's was drafted, I think, to be in the Kenneth Walker role, but the Kenneth
27:09Walker role is way more valuable, like you said, when there's no Zack Sharbon there. And I think when you look at the
27:14team projected like with the the odds for the Super Bowl, the win totals, that's a team that I think is going to
27:20be very cautious with Zack Zack Charbanet and not rush him back. I think there's a chance that we don't see him
27:26until like Thanksgiving. So, I'm with I think Jadarian price is a really really strong value >> and when Sharps comes back Theo you know
27:33it won't be immediately here's your old roll back >> ramp up ramp up time >> you got to ramp up >> so by then like we're getting to the
27:39fantasy playoffs >> playoffs you know Jim Mora uh yeah so look man and here's the other thing you can't rule out the chance that if
27:48Jadarian Price blows up they just may not use Zack Charbanet in that sort of role at all this year. Yeah, >> if if Jadarian Price is out here
27:57averaging 90 rushing yards per game, a rushing getting a rushing touchdown basically every week. He's doing the other things they want is I mean there's
28:06a real chance that Charban comes back to like being 25% 30% of the snaps. Well, every running back has to deal with
28:12that. There's not a running back really in the league. I mean besides like Jonathan Taylor, you know, who where it's just like man or Christian
28:19McCaffrey where it's like, oh yeah, we basically know they're going to play 80% of the snaps. Those are very rare. Yeah.
28:23Like if you get a 70 to 60% snap guy, like you're feeling pretty damn good.
28:29>> No, I'm feeling very very good about Jadarian Price. And another player that I was really excited to see you put on
28:34your Flag Plants list is Colston Lovelin. The first show I ever put out here at Rotoire was the Darkhorse League winners. And Coloulston Lovelin was the
28:43only tight end I listed there. The upside outcome for Loveland is massive.
28:47We already saw it, Dwayne, in the tail end of the season and what he was able to do in the NFL playoffs. Uh he's an e
28:55exceptional talent, very much in his own tier at tight end three overall. Just how excited are you about Lovelin? And it's sort of the year of the tight end.
29:04There's a lot of appealing tight ends, but Lovelin has that makeup and role potential that he could be the tight end
29:10one overall.
29:12>> Yeah. Yes. I think note, you know, number one, like you have to go back to, you know, what you thought about the
29:17player as a prospect because we're talking about someone that was a rookie last year and in the rookie supermodel, which is my rookie prospect model, he's
29:24the number four tight end prospect all time, >> right? This is a baller. And then we saw what he did at the end of last year once
29:33they finally decided to fully integrate him into the offense, right? And he took over that larger role. Cole KT then became really the tight end, too. From
29:39there on, if you look at the games, you know, where he was healthy and he b he took over the full-time role, it's a
29:45small sample, 16 games, but 16.8 fantasy points per game. That's a wide receiver one, not a tight end one. And when you
29:54match that up with his profile from college, and then you look at DJ Morris gone and we've got this amazing schemer
30:02and Ben Johnson who actually adds Sam Roush in the draft as well. They don't really have a wide receiver three that
30:09you're going to want to play 11 personnel all the time. They have guys they can use in that role with Khalif
30:15Raymond who spent time, you know, there you got Xavian Thomas, but those are not guys that you don't want to run 11
30:20personnel out of that. So Lovelin is really it's going to be a consolidated target tree with Burden, Lovelin, and Odun. And Lovelin honestly, I had to
30:28move him down my ranks because I didn't want people to overdraft him before they needed to. Like I honestly had him at
30:35like player 30 and I was like, "Well, I gotta move him down because I don't want people to think they have to take him in
30:39round three." So I just positioned him at the very beginning, end of round three, beginning of round four. And I just think when you look at Lovelin, the
30:47other thing that I love about it, Theo, is the fact that he has a very unique combination. That is what going back to
30:54the heyday of tight ends where the elite tight ends came from. Rob Gronowski, Jimmy Graham. The thing those guys did is they could work down the field with a
31:02higher average depth of target, but still earn a lot of targets. And it's a very rare combination. Most of the tight
31:08ends, and it's not a knock. It's you still get tight ends that produce, but most of the tight ends work underneath
31:14the coverage. Tucker Craft works underneath the coverage. Brock Bowers works underneath the coverage. Trey McBride works underneath the coverage.
31:20All these guys, and they're still really good. But what that unlocks when you get that combination of being able to work
31:26downfield as well as still earn a high volume in targets, you get this massive spike potential for yardage and touchdowns. And that is like the that's
31:35what we want. If we have a guy that could parlay 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns at tight end, like Lovelin is
31:42so in the conversation. Whereas I love Harold Fannon, but I don't love his offense. And he works all underneath.
31:49Like it's going to be really tough for him to score 10 or 11 touchdowns. As much as I I absolutely love Harold
31:53Fannon, but man, when I look at Lovelin, like it just it all stacks up. And we've got a potential ascending quarterback
32:00with Caleb Williams. And look, passing is down across the league. 225 yards per game last year. That's the lowest since 2008. That's gross passing yards. We
32:08don't take away sacks because we don't care. We just want the yards to go to the receivers and tight ends and backs.
32:13And so, one of the few schemers in the league that can really offset that is still Ben Johnson. So, I I I my trick
32:21with Lovelin is like, how do I get him and Scataboo? And then there's some receivers we're going to talk about that
32:26all go in that same range, but I think the beauty is there's I'm usually getting two guys of the groups that
32:31we're going to talk about across the positions today.
32:33>> Yeah, it's really interesting when it comes to Lovelin. My question for you, Dwayne, uh for the listeners that are in
32:38traditional PPR formats, like you said, Lovelin's a guy that you can get inside of round four. For the tight end premium
32:46uh viewers and listeners that play like FFPC, Loveland is going inside of round two and we're starting to see some one-off drafts where he's going ahead of
32:54Trey McBride or right next to Trey McBride. Are you comfortable enough with Lovelin if we make it a 1.5 point tight
33:03end premium PPR scoring to take him there inside of round two? Is the opportunity cost enough there for you to potentially pass on a hey could be a
33:12Kenneth Walker OTC against a against a Coulson Lovelin?
33:16>> Yeah. So I think when you look at that it really you you have to consider like you know your roster construction and
33:21you have to look at the ADPs of the other positions like in those leagues.
33:24So like right now in FFPC he's going on average pick 27 you know Lovelin but to your point he's often I wanted to get
33:31him this last draft that I was in in round two I did a pros versus Joe's like Lovelin was my round two target he was
33:38he was gone but I got Malik Neighbors who we're going to talk about here in a little bit anyway and I I would have
33:44taken Neighbors anyway but yes I am comfortable enough that I'm willing to take Lovelin in round two. It does get a
33:50little more tricky though when you talk about some of the running backs and receivers that you have to pass for him.
33:55I'm also still keeping Trey McBride one spot ahead. Bowowers is ahead. And the main reason is is I think we do have to
34:01acknowledge that like those guys have done it like multiple seasons and we're also really good collegiate players. And so for Lovelin, really good collegiate
34:09player but a smaller sample at the end of last year. So when I'm splitting hairs, will it surprise me if Lovelin's
34:14the tight end won this year? No. in the range of outcomes, but I'm still gonna take him after those other two guys. But
34:19I think like the sweet spot for him in FFPC is really whenever you do get him to slide to you at the end of round two.
34:25Yeah. Um or potentially really early in round three. But I will say this, I would not poo poo anyone that just wants
34:30to take Coulson Lovelin uh in the middle of round two. I I think it's still viable in in tight end premium.
34:36>> Those Jir Gibbs, Coloulston Lovelin, and now Drake London combination teams are absolutely terrifying. Let's talk about the wide receiver position, though.
34:46>> Let's start off with AJ Brown. He's the highest drafted one. You're starting to see him go towards the very beginning of
34:53the second round in like NFC type formats, start three wide receiver formats. Uh lives inside of round two in like FFPC. He's going to be a second
35:02round pick in every ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo League by the time we get to the end of August. How good can he be in this role?
35:10Do we follow the the the trend of year one wide receivers absolutely smashing in a Josh McDaniel offense? Saw it with
35:17Randy Moss. We saw it with Devonte Adams. Could it be part three with AJ Brown?
35:23>> I I think it definitely can like and I think the easiest way to look at AJ Brown like you know the nitpicks are age
35:2929. We do know there's a degenerative knee condition. Uh but like the Eagles just manage his practice reps. The Patriots are planning on doing that as
35:38well. So, in a dynasty, if he starts off hot and you think, you know, it's a sell window for Brown, I don't necessarily
35:43blame you. But as far as reraft goes, yeah, Theo, I really want to be in on him. Um, this is a guy that despite
35:50playing on an offense that averaged 206 yards per game. Like, that's terrible.
35:55206 passing yards per game and had to deal with Devonte Smith, a very good player in his own right, still came in
36:02as a wide receiver 11 last year. Like, it's just really hard to do. So, when I look at that, yeah, AJ Brown, his
36:09yardage went down from 83 per game to 67 per game. Fantasy points drop from 16.7 to 14.7 per game. But then, like, I look
36:18at it, I'm like, okay, now he's going to play with Drake May, who honestly, like, how did Drake May throw for 262 yards
36:24per game last year with the weapons he has? Theo, >> he's just good. He's just good.
36:28>> Yeah, simple answer. The dude's really good. And if he can elevate to that level with the roster he had last year,
36:36and I'm and here's the thing, I'm projecting regression for Drake May's passing yards and touchdowns this year, even with AJ Brown and the offense, but
36:44the ceiling case is even higher. And I'm going to give you a list of here are the players, Theo, that made a team change.
36:51Um, and their points per game. Uh, so these players, here's the two criteria.
36:55They had to have a target share of 25 to 30% in the year before. Brown was at 30% last year. And then they had to move to
37:02a team where we would project them. And this just actually happened. The new team that they played for saw a 40 yard
37:10increase in yards per game. Okay, that's because that's what we're talking about here. We're talking about a 40 to 60 yard per game increase versus the
37:18environment that he played in last year.
37:20Antonio Brown stayed even. He was at age 30, 22 and 22. Brandon Marshall at age 30, he went down a little bit, 20.9 to
37:2919. Antonio Brown though again on the list 2014. Uh and so part of this was like Ben Rothosberger uh injury 19 went
37:37up to 24. CD Lamb due to the Dak Prescott injury went from 17.7 to 23.8 with Dak Prescott healthy. Devonte Adams
37:46went from 16 to 22 fantasy points per game. Julio Jones at age 30 went from 15.7 to 21.8 fantasy points per game.
37:55That's also the freak Kyle Shanahan year. uh with that wasn't necessarily a team change. That was Kyle Shanahan uh doing his thing for Julio. Then you have
38:03Stefon Diggs went from 14.6 fantasy points per game with the Vikings moves over to play with Josh Allen 20 and a
38:09half fantasy points per game. Reggie Wayne, dude, at age 34 gets Andrew Luck goes from 12.2 to 17 fantasy points per
38:18game. And then Josh Gordon was just a freak. Like he played with like three quarterbacks. Norf Turner became the new offensive coordinator, but he went from
38:2410 to 23 fantasy points per game. But the bottom line is all of those players check they were at that 25 to 30% target
38:30share range and they went to an offense where now they got 40 more passing yards per game. So what we're saying is good
38:37receivers now in a way better environment. And AJ Brown definitely checks both of those boxes. That group on average Theo went up by 4.6 fantasy
38:47points per game. That's an increase of 28%.
38:51So yes I am in on AJ Brown. I understand the risk with age, but at age 29, he's not technically in like a true like
39:00postprime, oh my god, it's over era.
39:02He's more he's more in the late prime window where we can still get these really big spikes. And again, I just
39:08look at the target share and all those other things. Like, you were wide receiver 11 on the Eagles and now you
39:14get to play with the Patriots. Like, just, you know, sign me up.
39:17>> Yeah. And you look at I mean the wide receivers that are going around AJ Brown. I love Drake London, but we have
39:23a lack of clarity over who's going to be the quarterback there, just how healthy they are. London ceiling outcome versus a Brown ceiling outcome. You might say
39:32that London there's some safety there.
39:34Back-to-back years of 16 and a half points per game, but Brown could really be north of 20. Then you look the guys a
39:40little bit ahead of him. He doesn't have a George Pickins to deal with like CD Lamb does. Uh, so I think uh, Brown is a
39:46really, really interesting pick. And like we talked about structure-wise, if I start out with a running back in round one, being able to follow it up with AJ
39:54Brown in round two, I have a tremendous balance with my team. Uh, and if you're a correlation stack guy, Drake May's
40:02falling to a range where you can get him this year, Dwayne, like people are not paying up for for Drake May. He's
40:08falling to like the seventh, eighth round in some of these leagues. So, uh, really, really fun bet. Love that call out.
40:14>> Malik Neighbors, let's talk about him because I had to move him up in my rankings, but maybe I'm not high enough
40:19now. You're flag planning him. Do you think he plays week one or you don't care if it's a one two week absence?
40:26>> Well, I think he's playing week one. I mean, he's out there doing work. Uh he went from being a guy that in a charity
40:32softball game looked like, you know, he needed a walker to like he's out there cutting, doing all the things. And again, I really do lean into like our
40:40fantasy, you know, medical community on this stuff. And really everything I've read about neighbors based on what they're seeing is positive. Uh, and it
40:49neighbors, you know, he had a not necessarily a setback. It was kind of a common thing that can happen with the
40:54procedure he had where they have to go back and, you know, do a little bit, you know, of additional work. Um, and so I'm
41:00really leaning into like that expertise, but the bottom line is like I didn't think he would be practicing yet at all
41:06and he is. And so in my opinion, like reading the reports that I'm looking at, I feel like he's a super strong bet for
41:12week one. And if he's out there week one, that makes me feel like Malik Neighbors, uh, while I don't know that
41:18he'll be 100% this year. What I can say is like, you know, 90% of Malik Neighbors is still better than most wide
41:24receivers, uh, in in, you know, the NFL and we've seen it. and and so with me when I look at neighbors like gobbling
41:32it up for sure right now Theo whenever we look at where he's going on some of these sites uh but I'm willing to go in
41:40the pros versus Joe's I took Malik Neighbors in round two uh and that's a tight end premium PPR you can start up
41:46to four wide receivers you have two flex spots in that format um but right now like if your home league is drafting
41:52early my daughter is drafting today like Malik Neighbors right now on ESPN is pick 41 like that's insane right now on Sleeper a little sharper
42:0127. Now that's a three starting wide receiver setup with Sleeper and then over on Yahoo is pick 36. Um and so that
42:09means realistically like you can get him at the early part of round three. And so yeah, I'm just in on a player that was
42:16one of the best prospects ever in the rookie supermodel, was an amazing rookie, and really the injury was some time ago at this point. He didn't get
42:24hurt at the end of the year. Um, look at what Christian Watson did last year. He got he got hurt at the end right of the
42:302024 season and was back out as a a relevant fantasy player in the games where he didn't have other injuries averaging almost 16 fantasy points per
42:39game. Malik Neighbors, if he's healthy, Theo, like how many wide receivers do you truly say are more talented than Neighbors? Like we got Jamar Chase, you
42:49could throw Puka in there, Justin Jefferson in there, but like he's right there in that conversation in my mind.
42:54>> Yeah. I mean, I I think if if he would have the run out could have been no injuries throughout his NFL career, I
43:01think talent-wise ahead of Puka Nakua. I think it's him and Jamar Chase for me if I'm picking the the two best wide
43:07receivers talent-wise in the NFL. So, yeah, I think Neighbors, it's it's just uh every single day you sort of have to
43:14bring him up and up and up in your rankings uh when ADP starts to trend up.
43:18But, I think Neighbors, if he plays a full season, uh he could go absolutely bonkers. And we look at the target
43:24competition in New York. Darius Sllayton is still going to be starting wide receiver there. We saw what Neighbors was able to do in year one where
43:31Neighbors would just when I was at Fantasy Points, he broke Fantasy Points data. He had the number one target share, the number one first read look.
43:40He was number one in like Airyard share that year, too. He just broke everything. So, we know Neighbors is capable of taking on so such a high
43:48level of usage. He's an electric talent.
43:51I I think we all need to have a big correction. One player that um was trending towards having one of the best
43:57rookie seasons of all time through the first month of the year was a Mecha Ibuka. I'm not allowed to even talk
44:03about him anymore, Dwayne, because I talk about him every single show. He's been one of my guys all summer. I I'm
44:08going to stay out of this one. You take your your take on Anabuka. I'm all in. I think he's a potential league winner
44:14this year and it sounds like you are super enthusiastic as well.
44:18>> Yeah. So for me like it really comes down to like when I think about the the leading indicators right for these
44:25massive fantasy seasons the number one bullet one two three is talent right we really want talented players Ibuka's a round one pick he scored 20.1 fantasy
44:34points per game over the first five weeks before he picked up an injury so we liked him as a prospect yeah it's a
44:40limited sample but it was also good okay the other things I then want to look for to help me decipher we got a lot of guys
44:48that we may like their talent, but I want to look at the scheme they're going to play in. I want to look at the
44:52changes to their offense. And the biggest thing is Mike Evans is gone. And the other big thing is Baker Mayfield was completely should have been in a
45:02body cast by le by like week eight last year. If you look at Baker when he was the healthiest part of the year last
45:09year was averaging 256 yards per game.
45:12Then I mean he had injuries to both shoulders, knee injuries, groin injuries. Uh you know he had like a knee injury. I think there was an oblique or
45:21something mixed in there. Like dude it was insane. Like all the injuries Baker was dealing with and he also had all of
45:26his receivers hurt. Mike Evans was in and out. Ibuka was not the same after his injury. Chris Godwin was still recovering, you know, from uh the fibula
45:34tightroppe that he had the year before in 2024. I mean, Baker was out there just trying to do this with like TZ
45:39Johnson and, you know, he didn't even have Jaylen McMillan until the last four games. So, when I piece all this together, talented player, good draft
45:48capital, flash in a massive way early part of last year. And it wasn't just his fantasy points per game, as receiving yards per game, 89. That's a
45:55mid-range wide receiver one. Receptions per game, five, that's a mid-range wide receiver two. Targets per game, 7.6.
46:02That's a That's a high-end wide receiver two. Target share 23%. That's a low-end wide receiver one if we compare to historical players. So like really the
46:10underlying data did stack up like with the fantasy points that we saw and then again like with looking with Mike Evans
46:18gone and Baker back healthy man and I look at Ibuka Theo and he just like while he's not like this huge player
46:27he's got enough size he's thick enough he's got enough height to really turn into a guy that can honestly with Evans
46:33gone be used more in the red zone. can be used more in the end zone. And by the way, Chris Godwin is also one of my most
46:39drafted wide receivers. We're not talking him today, but just quick side note on him, Theo, DJ Moore has reached 16 fantasy points per game one time in
46:48his life, right? He goes 40 picks ahead of Chris Godwin. Then you look at Terry McLaren. He's never reached 16 fantasy
46:57points per game. He goes 40 picks ahead of Chris Godwin. That's not to say I don't like McLaren. That's not to say I
47:02don't like some things about DJ Moore this year getting to play with Josh Allen. But I mean IU I mean Ibuka and
47:08Godwin in my opinion where they go in drafts like I just I I am not always taking both of them but I'm typically
47:15walking away from every draft with one of them and Ibuka is still my preferred one because we want to bet Theo on the
47:22wide receivers that are still ascending right early in their career. And I think that that just matters like it just matters like so much more than what
47:32people may think. Um, and so I I just want to lean into it and I'm willing to take I Bua as early as round three. The
47:39beauty is a lot of folks are going to get him, you know, in round four, right?
47:43And some places even round five of their fantasy draft. So yeah, absolutely all in on Embuka.
47:50>> Yeah, say no more. I'm I'm my bags are packed, Dwayne. My bags are packed and they they are heavy in all formats. So
47:57uh and I'll also add Jaylen McMillan who I liked at cost. He's banged up right now. So the the target consolidation is
48:04going to be there for both of those guys. Even TZ Johnson has missed a little bit of time in in training camp.
48:09So you look at those guys and then you look at Ted Hurst who I like as a prospect, but you're talking about a
48:15third round pick out of Georgia State sort of hoping for him to to get more than some potential spike weeks is is
48:23maybe wishful thinking. Godwin I think can settle in and be a 12point a game guy this year even with Amecha Ibuka
48:30being a 100 plus catch guy 150 target guy this year. So I think it's it's a really a good argument and also we love
48:37motivated Baker Mayfield who's very angry that that I love it. I love it and great offensive line there.
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49:39for details.
49:41And one thing just to kind of like this is kind of like a teaching everyone to fish kind of thing and it's it's more
49:48tied back to like the ages and and we want to bet on the players that are on the ascension. It doesn't mean we won't
49:52take a player like AJ Brown that gets to go play with Drake May. Like you know there's layers to this stuff but I went
49:58back and I did research Theo and I what I wanted to look at is wide receivers that exceeded their 80 their expected
50:05fantasy points per game bases based on their average draft position. And so I went back to 2016 and it's very simple.
50:13I historically where all the wide receivers have been drafted and then what that typically means for them in fantasy points per game. And so I said,
50:19"All right, I want to look at the guys that exceeded their ADP by at least two fantasy points per game, which typically
50:26is starts getting you into league winner territory. If you go to three, it really gets you in league winner territory. But
50:32ages 21 to 23, okay, focusing on the young guys still ascending, 31% of them exceeded their ADP by two plus fantasy
50:42points per game. If we look at these guys that were between ages 24 and 27, so in their prime, the sweet spot, 25%
50:51of them exceeded that. Now we get into age 28 to 29, we're getting up there 22%. Remember the first bucket was 31%,
50:59guys. Then we get to ages 30 and 31, 16% of them exceeded their ADP by two plus.
51:04And then at ages 32 and 33, only 11% of them exceeded ADP. So we're just playing a percentages game. And if you think
51:12about it, you know, just logically, it makes more sense. You're not going to hit on all the young guys. Some of them
51:17are going to be misses, but the percentages are higher. If you want to outkick the coverage on ADP, you really do want to be aiming for the younger
51:24players. Whenever you have guys that are grouped close together, that doesn't mean if, for example, we look at AJ Brown and we think he's a round two pick
51:32and we think Igbuka is a round three pick, you want to flip them. No, we're not saying that. We're saying when you
51:36get to ranges in your draft where you have choices between these potential younger players and the older ones, generally speaking, you should lean to
51:44the younger players.
51:45>> Yeah, it's unknown upside. We're chasing unknown upside. We're chasing guys, >> and it's not just unknown. They're more likely to do it. The data tells us that
51:5231% for these young guys versus the old guys at 11% of the time exceeding ADP.
51:58>> One other edge that we can find in fantasy football is drafters who were scorned and say, "I'm never drafting that guy again."
52:06>> God. Yeah.
52:07>> Christian Watson. You're going to talk to league mates who say, "Oh man, I'm not doing it. Stop it, Theo. Stop it,
52:12Dwayne. I don't want to hear about Christian Watson. Don't you remember those two years I drafted him and he got injured? I'm not doing it again. I
52:19realize he was good last year, but there's other players I'm going to draft in that range. I think it's it's all the
52:26vibes are there with the contract that Green Bay gave Christian Watson that they believe that the injuries are a thing of the past. And we saw it last
52:33year. He looked incredible. And I'll say this, when we look at Christian Watson, we've seen a number of huge spike weeks,
52:40but we haven't seen a season where he's even had a 20% target share. I think he's been like an 18 1.5% target share
52:46guy. It feels like this could be the best usage season for Christian Watson.
52:51Uh it feels like a year we want to get a lot of exposure to him.
52:55>> Yeah. I mean with Wat with Watson um you really have to look at the targets per route run because it's an offense that
53:01love historically right love to rotate all their guys. And in those are scenarios where you really want to like try to dig into the targets per route
53:08run. Target share is still like the most predictive thing. that that's a great example of a scenario where you're like, "Okay, they play all these none of these
53:15guys get to 90% of the routes. They're all like 80 to 65." And so you want to dig into the per route stuff and it's
53:22still really strong for Watson, right? I think he is a guy that's capable of a 21 to honestly 23% target share. And when I
53:29looked at him, the big thing Theo is last year, number one, like you're not even fully healthy. You're coming back from the ACL. And if we look at the six
53:37games where he had an 80% route participation rate last year, he did have a chest injury and a shoulder injury later in the year. And that's the
53:43nitpick with Watson. Lots of soft tissue injuries gets banged up a lot, right?
53:48It's like Jaylen Wadd is like a similar player like as far as like you're you're probably going to be aggravated at
53:54times, but the big thing is in those games, man, he averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game. And now you're telling me Romeo Dobs and Dantavian Wixs are
54:04gone. Christian Watson was doing that basically playing the routes you would typically see for a wide receiver three on an NFL team. Now with those guys
54:13gone, he's got a very clear I think he's got the I love Jaden Reed, too, but we don't know for sure like who's going to
54:19be the second wide receiver on the field in these heavy formations. Will it be Golden? Will it be Reed? Will it be a
54:24mix of those two? But I know Watson, he's going to be out there. And the other thing, you know, when you really
54:30dig into Watson, again, a strong collegiate profile. His underlying, you know, per route data is really good, which I care more for a profile like his
54:39in this offense. But the other thing is like while he's historically been a deep threat, like when you really break down
54:45Christian Watson, he can win from anywhere. He can run a slant to the house. He can take a screen to the
54:51house. He can take a crossing pattern to the house. He can run the vertical route to the house. But when you watch
54:58Christian Wa Christian Watson, he is a guy that can be much more highly integrated into the offense now because really if you think about it, Wix as
55:06well as as Dobs did a lot of the possession stuff. Now there's this opportunity for Watson to get some of those routes as well, Theo. And I think
55:15he's totally capable of it. And if you're following the beat reports, there has been a lot of reports around Watson's route tree being much more
55:24diverse in camp. And then the other thing is how highly he's getting used in the red zone and in the end zone. And he
55:30has the size for it. He's 6'4 215 pounds and he ran a 43640.
55:35Like I mean big dude, not just tall, has thickness to him. He's got the speed.
55:41And so when I look at that paired with Lafleur's scheme, which is good. Over the last three years, Lafleura ranks 10th in play action at 26%. Fifth in
55:51motion at the snap, 56%. In two wide receiver sets, he ranks 10th, 26%. Those are all significant boost. Motion at the
55:59snap is a 48% boost to your fantasy points per route when you're the player in motion at the snap over the last
56:06three years. Play action is a 28 29% boost. And then when you get into two wide receiver sets where your second
56:12tight end now is like I don't know, Josh Wy, I mean Musgrave is hurt. Like it these things just all really stack up
56:18for Christian Watson. And I just look at him, Theo, and I'm like, man, I know health is a concern, but if there is a
56:25receiver in that range, rounds five, six, you know, of drafts that like I wouldn't be surprised at all if I look
56:31up and I'm like, it's week six and we're like, "Oh my god, this guy's on pace for 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns because he
56:39can really do everything." And now this pathway has been cleared for him. So, I absolutely love Christian Watson, man. I am so so in on it. I will say the
56:47biggest nitpick is if you are faint of heart for injuries and soft tissue stuff, fine, you can fade him. But I
56:55think it's very hard in that range of wide receivers, Theo, to find a receiver that offers you more upside than Christian Watson.
57:01>> I completely agree. And you think back to like peak Christian Watson like you talk about it's that combination of size, athletic ability, and the ability
57:09to explode and run away from NFL secondaries. When he first emerged in the NFL when he was his rookie year with
57:15Aaron Rodgers, >> the guy looked like big Tyreek Hill and then it's been just bad injury after bad injury and now we're at this point where
57:24I think you're right. I think we're here. And if we do see an expanded target tree, we do see a little bit more
57:29easy button targets for him to go along with being just this massive alpha in the red zone in the end zone. Uh I think
57:37Christian Watson could put together a year that's maybe even better than like 2024 Terry Mc >> Christian Watson. I think Theo, you tell
57:45me. And this is why I love doing tiers.
57:47I'm doing my wide receiver tier writeups right now. Well, folks, if you want to check out fantasylife.com, running back, quarterback, tight end, they're all up,
57:53as well as a precursor article for each one of what things matter, and I I break down team changes, quarterback changes,
58:00you know, the data points that matter, all that kind of stuff. But I think you can and I'm I'm I'm torn right now, so
58:06I'm going to get I'm going to get your feedback, Theo. you get to help me decide where I'm placing Christian Watson in my tears, but I'm very tempted
58:13to put him in that same tier with a with a mank and I Adams and Evans have things to
58:27offer. Evans is, you know, going to be playing in a new scheme, all that kind of stuff, but he's older. I think
58:32Watson, like you could make an argument that he really does belong in that tier.
58:36And man, he goes pick what's happening at ESPN. He goes pick 100.
58:41>> Well, that's just Yeah, I I think it's I think those are Is that a mockdraft data? It has to be mockdraft data.
58:47>> No, I think it's most it's based off of a smaller sample of drafts. And a lot of it does get driven though by the
58:52rankings and projections there. But still, pick 68 right now on on uh Yahoo, pick 70 on Sleeper. I mean, he's going
59:0030 and 40 picks after guys that I really like like Ibuka, Makoni, Wadd. I just I think that is way too wide.
59:10>> I I agree with you.
59:11>> Christian Watson, even if you want to tear him below them, like there's no way there's no world where Christian Watson
59:16should be 30 to 40 picks after those guys. I think he's more similar than dissimilar to them.
59:21>> Yeah. I mean, I think it's a it's a matter of where you want to push him up in your drafts. I've been sort of
59:25autotaking him when he's at the end of the fifth round in some of these formats. If if you're in a league where
59:31Christian Watson's the 100th pick, Dwayne, it might be time for you to find a new league and upgrade your level of
59:36competition. It might be time to to But I think I'm I'm totally fine with >> you. Keep crushing those players. You
59:41stay in that league and you enjoy that, but then you do also join some other leagues to challenge yourself. But but
59:46go ahead and keep kicking their ass.
59:48>> There you go. There you go. Uh nothing like taking uh people's money who don't want to draft Christian Watson, but I
59:52think you're on to something. I think when you're chasing ceiling outcome, he's right there with those guys. With Evans and and Adams, I understand people
60:01are going to say, "Well, look, those guys have been way more durable."
60:03They're older. We've probably seen their best fantasy seasons. With Christian Watson, it feels like his best fantasy season might be right now. Manki, I'm
60:11not headover heels on. I view him as sort of a structural guy. Waddle, we now have Wadd slightly dinged in camp. I I
60:18have Wadd very highly ranked. I took him at the 312 in a draft with Jacob Gibbs this week where we split a team at FFPC.
60:25But I think you're okay pushing uh Christian Watson up into that tier. I'm he's a little bit behind those guys for
60:31me in the overall rankings, but if we're searching upside outcome, I'm there. And again, I can draft >> and you're also trying to do what what
60:38what we talked about is you don't want people to take him too early because then you like zap your value. that
60:44really ADP becomes like a roadmap for how you get as many of these players onto your roster as possible. Here's what I'll say. Christian Watson, he's
60:51the consensus wide receiver three across like 10 like seven sites right now. So if you just put them all together and he
60:59is going at pick 69.
61:02>> I mean >> so just I think the big takeaway here guys is like you know I I would be willing to take him a half round to a
61:08round before that.
61:09>> Yeah, I'm with you >> to make sure I get him >> with you 100%. I took him uh Jacob and I
61:14actually took him. We took him at the 512. He fell all the way to the 512, which is a good value right now in FFPC.
61:19Let's quickly do quarterbacks here.
61:22>> Uh speaking of >> I'm sorry. I know I derail you with all these.
61:25>> No, no, no. This is this is trying to keep it tight.
61:27>> No, I appreciate your time and and your takes here, Dwayne, but I I like repeat guests here. So, I don't want somebody
61:32to say, you know, Theo had me on for two hours or something like that. We want to get you out of here really soon here. I
61:37know you're a busy guy. It is August.
61:38We're turnurning out content here. Uh make sure you check out all Dwayne's content. making sure you stick with this show. We're turning out stuff every
61:45single day. August is the busy season.
61:47>> You guys are killing it. Love the work.
61:48>> Really appreciate that. Um Jaylen Herz where when I say QB7 in ADP, uh QB8 and ADP, people are like, "Okay, maybe
61:57that's a little low." But then I actually say where he's going in drafts, >> FFPC main events right now, uh according
62:04to our friend Darren Armani at Fantasy Mojo, as of the last week of main event drafts, he's the 99. So, he's going at
62:11the end of the ninth round and you routinely see him going inside of round 10. Why is the market so low on Jaylen
62:18Herz right now, a player who's been a consistent source of fantasy football production really ever since he got on the field in the NFL?
62:26>> Yeah, I think part of it is because like just the overall narrative around Jaylen Herz, which is that, you know, he's not
62:33good is what people think of as a passer. And I think that's fair. I think that's I mean he averaged 208 passing or
62:40he was actually below that. He was like right around 200 passing yards per game last year. I mean not ideal. So I
62:45understand where the concern comes from but again for trying to win a league, trying to crush a league and he's not
62:52the only one that fits this category but he's the one to your point that goes the latest. Dual threat quarterbacks are
63:00still how you smash your league.
63:01Defenses are adapting to how to defend them. They're also our best dual threat quarterbacks. the ones that can score the touchdowns are getting older. And so
63:09you got things going on here, but Jaylen Herz is still in his prime. But here's the thing I'll say is if you look at
63:15quarterbacks that were on 55% or more of ESPN playoff rosters going back to 2021,
63:2480% of them have been dual threat. So, and it's very simple. Which players can spike in two categories instead of one?
63:34That gives you massive ceiling. What if Jayen Herz does defy your odds and just throws for 225 yards per game instead of
63:40like the 200 last year? Okay. What if he regresses back to where he's been as far as rushing touchdowns, which were down
63:48last year? They didn't get rid of the tush push. It's still there. They are still using it. And so I just think the
63:55other nice thing with Jaylen Herz is like last year, man, Theo like was a bad year by all accounts for Jayen Herz. And
64:01he's still he still scored 19 fantasy points per game. 18.7.
64:05>> Like I mean are you really like where he's going in drafts? Like I there's no downside in my opinion for Jaylen Herz.
64:13>> So you were about to say something. Go.
64:15>> No, I just I was going to say a I was about to like pile on that. It feels like you're drafting him at his floor.
64:20And I'll say that the vibes with Shawn Mannon are really really good right now.
64:24So I think you could see career-high numbers with Jaylen Herz as a passer despite losing AJ Brown. We know that the chemistry is there with with Devonte
64:32Smith. We know it's there with Dallas Goddard. Um the vibes are good with Dantavian Wixs who had was pretty good in limited sample sizes would have those
64:40spike weeks in Green Bay. And then we've got Mai Lemon who I love and now he's sort of falling. He's got the hamstring
64:47issues, but the weapons are there. The offensive line quality is there. I think this is a player we're kind of overthinking
64:54>> and you're looking for the new hotness.
64:55And and I'll say this, like I love Drake May, I love Jaden Daniels, but every time I draft one of them in a big high
65:01stakes draft and I see where Jaylen Herz goes like two full rounds later, you start doing the two for twos and you
65:08say, "Oh, if I would have maybe not drafted Jaden Daniels in round eight, >> I mean, I have Daniels ahead of him, but
65:14it's not like Daniels is 100% going to outscore Jayen Herz. I mean, on the contrary, it's probably a really even bet. Um, really interesting player." Now
65:22Dwayne, every single guest that comes on this show, I ask them uh one question. I say, "If you could know the final stats
65:30of any player in fantasy, who would it be?" Your answer is also one of your flag plants. So, this is the first time
65:35we've had this sort of uh chemistry here on this on the question. So, end it with that one. Talk about your answer and why
65:42that player is so intriguing to you.
65:45>> Yeah, for sure. I want to give you one last point on Jaylen Herz. That's >> Oh, sorry about that. I didn't mean to
65:49jump the gun. I didn't mean to jump the gun. No, no, no. It's okay. You hit on a lot of stuff and I've brought his
65:53rushing down to I think they're going to be more under center. Uh quarterbacks don't run as often when they're from under center. You know, it's probably
65:59going to help his scramble rate some.
66:01But all that aside, the biggest thing I would say is this. One of the really interesting things that I found that was
66:07actually the most predictive passing stat to next year's fantasy points for quarterbacks was their fantasy points per dropback when they were not
66:15pressured. And Jaylen Herz, I'm just going to give you, you know, how well he's done over the last four years. In
66:222022, he ranked fifth at 0.50 per dropback. In 2023, it did drop. He was 39 at 20th. 20 2024, he was eighth. And
66:32in 2025, he was still 12th. And so I I really think that Kevin Patulo was absolutely terrible. And I am with you.
66:39Sean Manion has not called plays, but he comes over and he's going to I think bring a lot of things. And the last
66:44thing on Herz is they have publicly put him on notice that you cannot because there's been rumors that in the past
66:51they've tried to do things like motion and play action and condense the formations and basically Jaylen I don't want to say he pitched a fit but he
66:57pushed he tried it a little bit and then said I'm not doing it and so what the Eagles have done is they've put they've
67:03aired all that out through the media and they've done it I believe intentionally because it's saying Jaylen you're going to run the offense we want you to and I
67:11think once he goes through the growing pains there's upside But yes, this final question, if I could know the stats for
67:16one player, um, and I tried to think like not just tied to this player, but like how does it impact others? It's
67:22Kyler Murray. Is Kyler Murray a for sure going to be the starter? We think he will be. But if I know that and I know
67:29how well he does, that helps me understand what I do with Justin Jefferson. That helps me understand how I need to be thinking about Jordan
67:36Addison. It helps me understand like how I need to be thinking about Kyler Murray. And so for me, it was just one
67:42of those where I felt like I got the most bang for my buck by knowing Kyler's uh projection. There are some other guys
67:49that were close calls with that, but I would go with Kyler. Uh you know, because you you have to spend a first
67:53round pick on Justin Jefferson. If there's any chance that JJ McCarthy is going to be under center, like that's terrible. Like we don't we don't want to
67:59deal with that. So I just like to know that Kyler Murray for sure is the starter. Uh, but yes, he is also my
68:05other flag plant at quarterback because I do think he's going to be the starter and he gets to play with Kevin Oonnell
68:11and he has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and they had Joan Jennings who's a chain mover. TJ Hawinson, Twilight of his career, not the same player but
68:18still like better than a lot of tight ends in the NFL. So, I get a quarterback that is going to run around. He's not
68:25going to get the rushing touchdowns, but he's now going to play in probably the best scheme ever of his career. And when
68:31I look at Okonnell, man, like talk about quarterback whisperer. I know it didn't work out last year with with McCarthy, right? It was absolutely terrible and it
68:40hurt a lot of our fantasy seasons, but I'm just going to give you the games played by these quarterbacks and how
68:45many yards per game they average under Okonnell. Carson Wentz last year in four games averaged 261 yards. Carson Wentz.
68:52Okay. JJ McCarthy was at 168. So not good. Sam Darnold 254. Kirk Cousins 291.
69:00Josh Dobs 208. Not great. But Nick Mullins 370. Nick Mullins was at 370 in three games under Okonnell in 2023. Kirk
69:09Cousins at 281 in 2022. So I'm not under the illusion that I still think that Kyler Murray can be this elite passer in
69:17the league. But do I think that he can be good enough that like he could be in the top 12 this year in Kevin
69:23O'Connell's scheme with these weapons?
69:25Yeah. Like you bet your ass I do. And then whenever you throw on the the the sprinkle of who could throw for 4,000
69:32yards and rush for 700. And I'm not saying that's what we're projecting him for. He's like he's one of the handful
69:39of guys. There's not many. So we have the scheme we want. We have a player that's the dual threat that we want. We
69:45have the weapons. To me it's just very simple. And right now I just love taking him because like because of the
69:52uncertainty you're just really getting him late like in fantasy drafts right now. I mean if you look at these home league sites like man like Kyler Murray
69:59like is you're getting him well after the top 12 quarterbacks are gone guys.
70:03To Theo's point these are going to change as we get more drafts in the books. But it's he's he's QB17 right now
70:09consensus across all the sites we track.
70:12>> Yeah. Okay. 100%. And you talk about the rushing upside where last year it was sort of an unwillingness to run. People
70:19talked about that. I think I think a lot of like we can kind of throw last year out the window with Murray. If we look
70:24at 2024, he had 572 rushing yards. And like you said, Kevin Oonnell, a lot of pressure on him this year to get it
70:32right. A lot of pressure on the Minnesota front office where they had Daniel Jones in the building, Sam Darnold in the building, went with JJ
70:38McCarthy. Um, Carson Wentz. I mean, I'm not sure he's a grandfather like Philip Rivers, but it was essentially an off-thecouch Carson Wentz uh situation.
70:47So, other than that, um, Kevin Oonnell's been awesome with this. So, I'm with you. And >> and really like Kyler, it's a small
70:54sample, Theo, but the rushing yard, I don't know where the rushing argument is coming. Here are his rushing yards per game over the last three years. 31 34
71:01and last year was at 35.
71:03>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think it's a little bit of the the beat reporters from Arizona talking about just sort of
71:09people were trying to throw Kyler under the bus. I mean, I think that he needed a change of he needed a change of
71:14scenery.
71:15>> A lot's been made about the lack of the lack of commitment that Minnesota's made to him in terms of the actual bet
71:21they're making salary. He's going to be the lowest paid starting quarterback in the NFL when he wins that. But you can
71:26see a scenario where Murray is is quarterbacking Minnesota in 2027 or somebody else signs him for a big contract. This is like the year for him.
71:36Tons of pressure on him to return to form, but I think he's going to do it.
71:40He's been a really fantasy friendly quarterback multiple seasons. I think we see it this year. And it's a quarterback 17 price tag. So if you want to go Kyler
71:48Murray and pair him with a Matthew Stafford or a Jared Goff, you can wait on quarterback and just double tap it.
71:55So, lots of ways.
71:56>> Let me ask you, Theo, are you willing to do that in a smaller league? Because I think like this year, like I've kind of
72:00toyed with that. Usually, I'll just draft one quarterback and like a 15 to 16 player roster, but we've seen over the last couple years like more and more
72:09people drafting two quarterbacks. So, I've actually been willing to do that, right? Even in smaller leagues, es I love the example you just gave. You
72:16know, you get a you get a golf, you throw him in there, whatever, and then you let Kyler like take the reigns. And
72:23I've also had that question with with tight end. If you get boxed out, right, from the guys you really want and you're
72:29like, "Okay, fine. I'll take Goddard, you know, with AJ Brown gone and then I'm going to circle back like to a dart
72:35throw or maybe" and Sadi was my guy and like now he's dealing with the other injury, but like even Terrence Ferguson,
72:41guys like that. Are you willing to do that like in in smaller home leagues or do you think no, you probably still want
72:47to strictly let's just draft one of each? I think that doubletapping a one-off position when you punt it and you get into the double digit rounds is
72:55perfectly viable. The one the one devil's advocate though, and Dwayne, you know this, and this is like another like game theory, is if if you take take that
73:04approach, you're probably thinking, I'm going to hold these guys and I'm going to play the matchups and maybe give it a
73:09month. Maybe I can cut one of them. In a 15-man roster, that's one spot that's taken up where I could be hitting the
73:17waiver wire. And you know, and I know in thoseif those 15 man roster leagues, week one waiverwire might be the best
73:24run of the entire year. Yeah.
73:26>> Um so that's the only argument against it is >> double Yeah. So it's it's but >> So I I think the key is what you want to
73:32do, guys, if you're doing it is you don't want to take two tight ends and play matchups. What you want to do, for
73:38example, is grab a Gddard, grab a Mark Andrews. You're going to play him in week one. You draft Terrence Ferguson, Kenyan Sadique, whoever in your last
73:46round and they do something in week one or they don't. Yeah. If Terrence Ferguson has an 80% route participation in week one, you have your answer. Like,
73:55you know, you got to keep him. But if not, like it's f you don't need to wait five weeks to see it. You
74:00know, to your point, you still maximize the waiverwire run. What I wouldn't do is draft Goddard and Andrews together because then I am tied to having to try
74:08to play the matchups and locking up one of my roster spots the rest of the way.
74:11And so I think the example with Murray is another really good example. You take Goff, you take Murray, maybe Murray for
74:18whatever reason, surprise, isn't the starter week one. It's it's you're just you cut him, you know, and you just have to move on if there's someone you really
74:24want from the waiver wire.
74:26>> You just made a lot of people happy when you said Terren Ferguson 80% route participation. Uh even if it's speculation, there's a lot of lot of us
74:34out there that would pay money to see that happen, Dwayne. Uh and we're drafting a ton of them. This I would pay
74:39a lot of money. I >> I would absolutely [laughter] love to see that one. This was a lot of fun. Let
74:42everybody know once again sort of what your runout is, what you have coming up, where they can find your work podcast-wise, too. Let everybody know.
74:49>> Yeah, you guys. So, you can find everything over at uh fantasylife.com.
74:53All of my written content is there. Uh next week, I'll be shifting into draft strategy and I will be baking in like
74:58the site that you're talking about, but tiers are up, all my rankings are up on the site, my projections are all up on
75:04the site. I also run those. Um and then as far as the podcasts go, yeah, you can check me out on Fantasy Football is
75:10Life. That is our new show that myself and Matthew Freriedman have started is really for like you guys that are hardcore like digging into some of the
75:17data stuff. And then we also have the fantasy life show which I make my appearances on there as well. And you
75:22can you guys can find that anywhere you do your podcasts uh anywhere you know YouTube you can find all that stuff
75:28there. So yeah I appreciate everybody checking it out and uh yeah I really appreciate you Theo. I I actually you're actually one of my very favorite shows
75:35to come on with because we talk about the players and things, but I love like uh you draft a lot. You're in the
75:41streets. You're playing in the high stakes contest. You know, you and I like that's kind of how we came up together
75:45was playing in those things. And so I just I love the blend that you bring to the table of not just player takes, but
75:51also really thinking about, okay, what does this mean for a draft strategy and how really should we use ADP? you know,
75:58uh, is is is it really what should drive the way I draft or is it more how I map out my draft? And I just I want to say
76:04you've been doing an excellent job and man, you've had some great great guests on the show. Uh, absolutely crushing.
76:10>> Really appreciate that. And yeah, I think it's like Dwayne and I are players first. And I think people get lost in in
76:15that Dwayne McFarland like you become this big voice in fantasy, but you were a player first. You have a bunch of uh
76:21receipts to prove it in how well you've done in leagues like FFPC. Uh, so player first mentality. We continue to do it
76:28because Dwayne, we're not only trying to win fantasy leagues, we're also trying to win money doing it. And I think that
76:33that sort of thing motivates you to be very correct and you're giving people essentially financial advice. And I hope that the two of us run as pure as we
76:41have in years past. It's going to be a really good year if we do that. Um, but make sure you check out Dwayne
76:45McFarland. Make sure you stick with this show. We're dropping a show a day in August. We're going to help you crush
76:51your leagues this
