0:11>> Six breakouts for fantasy football. Theo Gramminger, lead fantasy analyst over here at RotoWire. Breaking it down today with my guy Ray Garvin. We're going to
0:20talk about breakouts this year. And Ray, every single year in fantasy football, the wait-and-see-it-first drafter loses out a lot because you have to be
0:30forward-thinking in this game. You have to embrace these players that are set to take on bigger roles and sometimes just better usage. You've got a couple
0:39players that you've circled.
0:41How excited are you for this season from a bird's-eye view? We've got all these kind of older running backs people are
0:46are getting, you know, settled in on still drafting. Christian McCaffrey still going in the first round. Derrick Henry locked in. Do you think this could
0:52be a year of change in fantasy football?
0:56>> Oh, absolutely, man. Absolutely. That That's the name of the game, man. We've done this long enough. We've played long enough. And we've just been fans of the
1:03game of football long enough to know that the game there is an evolution. And there's a cycle of things that happen.
1:09And sometimes you see the change coming a mile away. And sometimes it sneaks right up on you. And I think this year,
1:15when you just think about the game of football. And we just saw a team win with a quarterback who a couple of years
1:22ago people thought should be out of the league. And they just won the damn Super Bowl. Right? We're sitting back. And
1:27you're looking at these different arc type of tight ends absolutely dominate.
1:32You're looking at a 5'9 187-lb running back just get paid a bag where a few years ago those are guys you would
1:40think is more afterthoughts, not cornerstones. So, yeah, I think the game of football is evolving before our eyes.
1:46I think the way that NFL treats certain positions, how it thinks about the quarterback spot, how it drafts players to fit a system and a mold and a scheme
1:55opposed to just being the guy. I think all of that's impacting how we play, how we draft, how we talk about this, and to
2:03answer your question, hell yeah, I'm excited for this year because I think this year, once again, will bring a lot of volatility, a lot of surprise, and
2:11that's what makes the game of football great, and that's what makes the draft so fun.
2:14>> drafters start getting comfortable, then drafters get burned. So, we've really got to be able to kind of roll with the punches,
2:20especially when it gets to July and August, when we get a ton of information coming in.
2:24Ray, it's feels like the year of the running back. You got Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs either at the one or the
2:31two, and most people are splitting the difference, and that's how drafts are starting. Then, of course, you've got guys like Christian McCaffrey also going
2:38inside of round one. Some running backs like James Cook have risen up the board, but you've got Omarian Hampton, and when
2:45we talk about breakout players, we've got to talk about Hampton because it feels like a player that could shift win rates coming out of the second round one
2:54way or another. There's people taking big stands when it comes to Omarian Hampton either in a very positive light, and then some people lately, they're
3:03worried about like the Keaton Mitchell usage. Hampton's going to cost you an early second-round pick. Everybody's circling the Chargers as a breakout
3:10offense this year.
3:11Is Omarian Hampton the one that benefits from Mike McDaniel the most? In or out on Hampton as a massive breakout candidate?
3:20>> In.
3:22In. In. I don't I don't >> Yeah. There you go. There >> understand what people are concerned about. Keaton Mitchell? Right? Like I'm
3:29just And I'm not that That's not to It's not to shade Keaton Mitchell.
3:33That's nothing. He's He's a fun player.
3:35He's an explosive player. He serves a role in an offense, but like they spent a first-round pick on him last year. He's massive, right? He's
3:43got For For everything that he wasn't last year and the injury and and having to come back and deal with some issues on
3:50third down. Like this is still the most talented running back in that backfield.
3:53Camani Vidal was serviceable filling in the way that he did, but this was also an offensive line that had the highest amount of combinations on
4:01the season. You lose both your bookend tackles. They're rotating guys in at guard. Center was a mess. And what did they go out and do? They went out and
4:10got a talented play caller in Mike McDaniel. And then they went out and addressed a massive need on this team, which is solidify your offensive line.
4:17Make life easier for Justin Herbert and your 6'2, 220-lb second-year running back. I just Yes. Who who What is there to be nervous about?
4:28Again, I'm not Keaton Mitchell.
4:31Hey, what what Keaton that that's >> We we we're not being fair to Keaton Mitchell. We're being people in fantasy football that think there's been a
4:37little bit of enthusiasm at least recently, but I'm with you. Like when you get to Omarian Hampton, it it's if we're betting on the Chargers to be the
4:45big breakout offense, we have to bet on Omarian Hampton. The pedigree for him is so good, and it was really underrated
4:53coming out. First-round pick out of UNC, tons of production out of the ACC. And Hampton also showed the ability to catch
5:01the football out of the backfield. So like checks off every single box here.
5:05And when we look at Mike McDaniel, like this guy has been so good for producing running back like scoring. And people
5:13point to Devon Achane, but I look at the Raheem Mostert season. Like Hampton could end up having the Raheem Mostert type season where Mostert had 20-plus
5:21touchdowns that year for McDaniel.
5:24I could see a 15-plus touchdown season from Omarian Hampton. And if he does that, everything else doesn't matter cuz he's falling in the end zone 15 times.
5:32>> And I'll just say this, you look at how this backfield is constructed right now, you would think, right, that Camani
5:37Vidal is like the pass-catching pass-catching specialist in that backfield, but he's not. Right, 16 receptions last year. He was more trusted on third down because he was
5:47really good in pass pro and Omarion Hampton struggled there, but you you look at the receiving profile of the backs behind him. That's never really
5:53been Keaton Mitchell's game. He's a big time explosive play guy. That's not who Kamani Vidal is. You're talking about a 220 plus pound guy that can tote the
6:01rock 230 minimal times just out of the back field and then somebody that Mike McDaniel can throw the ball to out of
6:09the back field. Like this is this is a match made in heaven. I'm not concerned about Omarion Hampton. I mean Honestly,
6:15I I I didn't even know like he needed to be on the breakout list cuz in my mind I just kind of
6:20assumed like yeah, he's probably going to be a ball back for a year or two.
6:23>> a lot of the players we're going to talk about are going to be drafted high more highly in 2027 and I think if we're
6:29making a list of guys who could be top five picks in the 2027 draft, Hampton has to be there. So it's a great great
6:35mental exercise. Let's talk about Quishon Judkins. Judkins, the the vibes health-wise have been outstanding.
6:42Really really positives coming out of OTAs where Quishon Judkins, there was sort of the gloom and doom narrative like in May that we're going to have to
6:50be patient with Judkins. Now Judkins looks fully healthy. There's question marks at quarterback in Cleveland, but no question marks about them wanting to
7:00get Quishon Judkins the ball. In or out on Judkins as a player. I mean he's not really kind of broke out last year, but
7:06a player who could take his game to another level this year in year two.
7:09>> Yeah, he was on my list when we were you know, the pre-show stuff, right? He was on my list and then I pulled it back cuz
7:14I saw you were you were talking to Heath not long ago and he was talking about talking about Quishon Judkins. So I was
7:20like I don't know how much they want to hear about it. But I like Judkins a lot and even more so again, same way that I
7:26kind of talked about LAC in that last segment, I like what Cleveland has done to improve some deficiencies on that offensive line. They completely retooled
7:35it, right? Spending a top pick on Spencer Feno, they went out and spent money in free agency. They're trying to make an area of weakness and improve
7:42upon that after losing one of their one of their most beloved offensive lineman in their franchise, right? So, to go out
7:48there and address critical needs that they needed to, they addressed wide receiver on the outside to space some things out on the
7:55football field. Judkins was good last year, but it was kind of easy when he was the only guy, right? He was the only
8:01ticket in town.
8:02I like what they've done around him.
8:04Yes, there's question marks at QB, but we're talking about an an OC head coach that just came from Derrick Henry, and
8:10I'm not comparing Judkins to Henry, but I do believe that Monken is going to find a way to get him the ball in the
8:15surprising good thing about Quinshon that we saw last year, Theo.
8:20Like it catch the pass. He catch the ball. And they they they they threw him the ball out of the backfield enough to
8:25where you're like, "Okay, if he can sustain some of that or maybe even take it a little notch up." I know Dylan
8:31Sampson is there, but >> Yeah, and I'm super with you on that one where I think that the Todd Monken is
8:36not getting enough credit as a play as a a play caller who can elevate talent there. Even with all the pass-catching
8:42weapons, I think it begins and ends with Quinshon Judkins. We also love seeing these guys with like top-40 draft capital, and we consider just like how
8:52empty Judkins' off-season was last year dealing with off-the-field issues, missed all that time in training camp, and then has to show up and gets put
9:00into like a high-volume role. So, I'm with you. I think they're going to get as much as they can out of Judkins.
9:06Fully expect that ugly yards per carry average to to trend up, and I fully expect the reception total to trend up
9:13as they like trust him a little bit more in year two. We we question the offense, but I don't think we question the
9:18volume. And if I'm chasing running backs in that range, I like going with younger players who are going to get the rock a
9:24lot. So, I'm with you. I think Judkins is not a guy you need to reach for, but I think you should be open-minded to
9:28drafting. I've drafted him a couple times as my RB2, Ray, when I've waited a little bit, sort of like a hero RB
9:34build, and then took Judkins as my RB2, and I sort of like the way that's shaking out.
9:39>> Where's he at? Who's going around the Judkins range right now?
9:41>> Judkins is right around running back 20.
9:45So, you're talking about behind the Javonte Williams and Cam Akers and then he's going to boost and then he's going a few picks ahead of the Bucky Irving,
9:52Tray Sermon, Henderson, David Montgomery range. So, for me, I like him in there because I I I I feel like I'm getting
9:59the most running back touches out of that group. Like yeah, so it's a volume bet for me.
10:05>> Yes.
10:08I I I in my mind, I'm like, "Oh, I might I might have him ranked a little higher than some of the guys above him, but if
10:16that's what I have to pay in order to get him, I I I think you're walking into and I'm not I'm not trying to be I'm not trying
10:23to overstate it. I mean, he's getting 250 plus opportunities next year, right?
10:28Between rush attempts and and and targets and receptions. I I've got I'm I'm very very bullish on him.
10:35>> a little bit better than projected, then I think they'll ride Quinton Judkins just about as much as they can. One
10:40running back who didn't have the draft capital last year compared to a Hampton or a Judkins, but was a player the
10:46fantasy community got really excited about because a lot of for the was about the athletic traits and the team fit was
10:53Breida Tuten. This time last year people were talking about Travis Etienne versus Breida Tuten. That looks kind of laughable at this point. Etienne had a
11:02career year last year, got paid by New Orleans. Now Tuten looks to be the guy in Jacksonville. I think maybe they
11:09wanted a little bit more out of Chris Rodriguez, but Rodriguez hasn't been able to be on the field. Tuten looks to
11:15be the man in the Liam Cohen offense, which has been a real source of fantasy football value for running backs for
11:20multiple seasons. Are you in and out on a Breida Tuten big breakout?
11:25>> Uh people aren't going to like me for this one. I am in on Breida Tuten being a really good running back this year, being a a piece
11:35of this offensive backfield.
11:38>> Nothing.
11:38>> I think it will be a breakout cuz I mean he really didn't do anything last year, right? He didn't get And it wasn't his
11:42wasn't his fault, right? Travis Etienne was there.
11:45They didn't bring Chris Rodriguez in for nothing, and they also kind of left his backfield up to two rookie running backs
11:52and Lequinte Allen. Like these are they're they're not what I call threats to pull everything away from Tooten and because of those guys, Ashel Tooten is
12:00not going to be good. But I just coined them in our community, they're just gnats, right? They're around, right? And and you look up and it's those two
12:08targets and four attempts that Lequinte Allen got in that game in the third quarter cuz they had to rotate him in,
12:13right? That just eats away at Tooten a little bit. I do think that Rodri- Listen, it's June, okay? Right? And by the time
12:22September rolls around, Rodriguez is probably going to be on the field, and they brought him there for a reason.
12:28Like I just >> No.
12:29>> You were there, Theo. Tooten's not a big guy, right? He's not the biggest guy in the world. Yeah, he's not big at all.
12:34Like there's a reason why Rodriguez is there to eat some of those innings, and I just think that I have him projected to lead them in
12:43carries. I have him projected to lead Jacksonville in yards, touchdowns, targets, receptions, and receiving yards.
12:51But it's still not game-changing fantasy football numbers, if that makes sense.
12:55So I'm in on Tooten being good.
12:58I'm pumping the brakes on the high-end expectation that I have for him. I don't believe it's going to be Etienne 2.0
13:03>> the Etienne volume, you're going to be really really disappointed. I do think there's a little bit of like it's not
13:10I'm glad you brought up Lequinte Allen because I think Allen could be the annoying presence here, um because Allen's a really good pass
13:16catcher, and if they trust him in that role, then it really really limits Tooten's ceiling. And Tooten, I feel like it it's sort of an okay pick um in
13:25like the sixth round of drafts, but I can wait a few picks later, get access to a DeAndre Swift, and I can wait now
13:33about eight picks later and get access to Jarrian Price who has way less backfield competition in my opinion in a much better off and not not much better
13:41but a better offense I think in Seattle than Jacksonville. So, I feel like Tuton's not one that's going to burn me
13:47as a potential league winner. Um, whereas I feel like a Hampton or a Judkins if you're drafting in high volume, uh, those two guys could really,
13:55really produce.
14:00>> You nailed it. And we we we didn't talk about this before the show, but I a thousand percent agree with you. I think
14:06if you're talking about a league winning running back from week one to get you through week 17, I would much rather bet on Omarion Hampton
14:13at cost. I'd much rather bet on Quintez Judkins at cost. Where's Tuton going around? Who's Who's in the Tuton range?
14:20You said >> running back 24 range. You're able to get him He's right ahead of guys like Swift and Price.
14:26Um, and and and right behind guys like Henderson and David Montgomery. I mean, I can make an argument for each and
14:32every one of those guys, uh, uh, ahead of Tuton that I just mentioned. And, uh, Tuton's close enough to to Quintez
14:39Judkins. You're talking about a about a half a round difference between Judkins and Tuton.
14:44>> Yeah, and and you and if we were on the clock in that round, Theo, and you were at the front of that round and I was at
14:49the back of the round, and I thought Judkins would fall, like I would pray that you would take Tuton and let
14:53Judkins fall to me. Right? I'd be like, I'll I'd gladly take that.
14:57And I'll just say this, I think this is a bigger philosophical conversation about Jacksonville in general. People are very bullish on the Jags. Lawrence,
15:05three, four damn wide receivers in the offense. Now we're talking about multiple tight ends and more tight end sets, and then you got running backs. I
15:12just Everybody's not going over a thousand in Jacksonville.
15:17>> there it feels like Jacksonville's the team you've got to get right. Um, I think gravitating towards the Parker Washington BTJ guys as opposed to diving
15:26into Tuton. They're all in the same kind of range here. Um, but they're a team we're going to monitor all summer long.
15:31Let's talk about another running back that we've been waiting on patiently out of University of Texas was the number one running back selected in the 2024
15:39draft class. And it's just been heartbreaking injury after heartbreaking injury, but the vibes with Jonathan Brooks are just immaculate right now.
15:48Dave Canales is saying all the right things, and drafters are starting to push him up, Ray. Do we get the ultimate
15:54comeback here with Jonathan Brooks, or are we going to be disappointed?
16:04>> I think you're going to get some ultimate comeback moments from Jonathan Brooks.
16:10I think there's going to be games where if he can stay on the field, he probably can be pretty good.
16:17I have been very outspoken.
16:20Players who suffer debilitating season-ending injuries mid-season end of season, I'm just out on them the next year. Like it's just very, very rarely does the guy who tore
16:30his ACL at the end of the year come back and is ready for week one and looks like the same guy he was prior to the injury.
16:36We see that We see that story all the time, Theo. And those those players tell us the year after, "Now I feel fully
16:42healthy, right? I wasn't all the way back when I came back, but now a year removed, I feel fully healthy."
16:47>> uh about 2 years ago now. So, he's uh yeah, 2 years. So, we're I mean, health-wise timeline >> years ago
16:54>> when it comes to Jonathan Brooks. Um, a lot of it for me is the Dave Canales coach speak, which we don't want to get
16:59too head over heels over coach speak, but he's certainly saying the right things with Brooks. He's also talking up Jonathan Brooks at work in the receiving
17:07game, which is something we know like that's not Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard has been sort of a a compiler, a warrior who plays really,
17:15really hard. And Chuba gave us the really strong year 2 years ago. Um I like chasing these Dave Canales running backs, and for me, I just feel like
17:24Brooks is the one this year. If one of them is going to hit big for fantasy, I'd rather bet on sort of the unknown
17:29upside with Brooks than sort of the one we know with Chuba. I think it's going up.
17:33>> the cost of what you have to pay for Brooks now? Like are you willing to Are you Are you Are you willing to pay
17:40market price for him now for that I I don't disagree I I I know I sound like Negative Nancy on here, right? But I
17:47just in football, you just you you you get to the end of the season, and everybody would have swore that Henderson was just going to go nuclear
17:56in New England, and it never really happened, right? I think it just it takes time for some of these players, and that's okay, right? You're talking
18:03about somebody who's messed up his knee twice. He came back and messed it up when he came back. Like I just
18:09I I think he could get there, Theo, but I I am I'll say this, I don't really like either one of them at that cost.
18:15Like I really I kind of don't. I I kind of don't like either one cuz I don't want to make I don't want to miss out on
18:20the Brooks bet, but I also don't have enough conviction to just know that he's going to run over people and I get it
18:26with with Chuba. I think Canales likes Chuba Hubbard. The organization likes Chuba Hubbard, but for me, like Chuba's just limited in terms of the
18:33explosiveness and I think the pass-catching ability. And I think with Brooks, you get like the well-rounded back there. You've also had like this
18:41history of multiple times over we've seen these Dave Canales running backs uh start out the year looking like they're the number two and then just taking
18:49over. We saw it with Bucky Irving, saw it last year with Rico Dowdle having a strong run. I think it could be Brooks
18:54this year. You talk about the cost. I think the the the eighth-round Jonathan Brooks is is easy to click on. I can
19:00even get with a little bit of seventh-round exposure. When he starts rising in the sixth round, and then we start seeing Chuba falling to like round
19:07eight, then I think it's time to flip it. And I I And that's sort of what we've seen lately in FFPC and NFFC
19:13drafts is people attacking Jonathan Brooks now. So, one Carolina Panther that I know you're really high on is Terrace Marshall Jr. Why don't you talk
19:23about him and the leap forward you think he could have this year in year two?
19:28>> It's just it's volume, it's opportunity.
19:30I know people got a little excited when they saw the Kocur deal, but that was just you make a guy happy, you grease him up
19:36a little bit, but he is what he is. The Mcmillian has the type of opportunity inside of this offense to push for that
19:45150-plus targets in a season, right? And if you're getting that type of opportunity as pretty much the unquestioned one because there's not
19:52really a tight end of consequence there that's going to be a target magnet.
19:57We've already alluded to the fact that you're really probably not going to throw the ball to Chuba Hubbard a bunch out of the back field and you're
20:01probably kind of easing Brooks into certain roles, right? It's It's just not going to matter for the allocation that they give to the outside wide receiver
20:10in this offense. And in an in an NFL where they're cutting down on three wide receiver sets, they still ran at it a
20:1665% clip in Carolina. This is a very pivotal year for Bryce Young as well.
20:21You You might get the best version of Bryce Young you're ever going to get right here this year because this is a
20:27big time year for him. A decision will be made on Bryce. They're coming off of a playoff run where they pushed the Los
20:34Angeles Rams to overtime and Bryce Young was fantastic in that game. This is year two of a talented young receiver who
20:40just got another opportunity to kind of figure it out, right? Now I get a full off season in this program.
20:47I'm not I'm not going top three kind of upside right here for Mcmillian, but I absolutely believe this is the type of
20:54career he's going to >> one cuz Mcmillian for him to really, really crush his ADP you're you're talking about like low-end wide receiver
21:01one numbers. And that's what they drafted him to be to be the focal point of the entire offense, top 10 NFL draft
21:08capital, and he certainly flashed last year. I think it all falls on Bryce Young. If if you're going to be correct
21:13on this one, Ray, you've got to have, like you said, this has got to be a career year out of Bryce Young, and it's
21:19got to be just a willingness to design things around Tetero McMillan, force the ball into him, and that might be Bryce
21:26Young's best chance when you look at like sort of the pedigree. Like I like Jalin Coker a lot, um and I think
21:32there's certainly Jalin Coker people out there, but McMillan is the one that that just has the the it factor, the wide
21:39receiver one, the alpha. I mean, we compared him to Drake London coming out.
21:43This could be the Drake London type usage.
21:46>> Yeah, and and and I wasn't dogging out Coker, right? I think I've got Coker projected pretty well, actually, like in
21:52in in mind. But after that, like I don't believe Brazell or Leggett or Jimmy Horn Jr. are going to be any significant
21:59threat to the workload. And as you look around at a running back room that they're trying to work in and figure
22:04out, like your most trusted option is number four. He's 6'5", 220 lbs. Yes, that is Bryce Young's best chance at success. The bet is on Bryce Young, and
22:14you know, the thing is, Theo, we don't I don't need Bryce Young to throw for 4,000 yards, man. Just 3,500, right? Can
22:21you Can you be in a moderate to average to good quarterback range. I don't need you to throw for 44 like Jared Goff. I know you're not
22:29getting me 47 like a Dak or a Stafford.
22:32Give me 35, man. Like just be be competent back there in this in this year three. Like it's make or break for
22:40>> targets last year for McMillan, 70 catches, over 1,000 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. So, I mean, him getting up to the 140, 150 target range
22:50definitely definitely in the wheelhouse.
22:52I've been very high on Emeka Egbuka, um and I've also been very optimistic when it comes to Luther Burden. Where are you
22:58at on those two guys, Ray? Are you in or out on the other year two guys? And I feel like the year-two breakout wide
23:05receiver, we might be getting a little bit of a discount because last year drafters were burned by Lad McConkey, burned by Brian Thomas Jr., and then
23:13because of injury, burned by Malik Nabers. So, it's all of these guys seem to be in like a decent range that could
23:19provide wins. Do you have a favorite of those two, or are you fading one? Like, where are you at on Emeka Egbuka and
23:25Burden?
23:26>> Oh, I'm not fading any of them. I think they're in great spots with great opportunity. I I do have Burden projected as a lower stat line
23:35than the other two, but the other two like unequivocally profile as their team's number one option.
23:41I think we can do a whole damn show on Chicago and the priority and pecking order inside of that receiving game.
23:47Whether it's Odunze, is it Loveland, is it Burden? I think we could do a whole show on that. Backfield, the quarterback. When you look at Egbuka,
23:55this is Again, we just talked about it with McMillan, and I know he was a top 10 pick, and Egbuka was picked in the
24:0020s, but there was a clear plan for him to be a focal point of this offense. And uh they let Mike Evans walk, or Mike Evans
24:07walked out the door. I do believe Chris Godwin will play a factor in that, but Egbuka was drafted to be the same type
24:13of deal of of what McMillan was. Was to be a number one option for Baker Mayfield. It doesn't have to be the
24:19number one option every week, but you need to be a primary option for Baker Mayfield, which I've got him projected to lead that team
24:26in targets, lead them in receptions, over 1,200 yards for Emeka Egbuka this year, and he's got a 17-point per game ceiling looking at some prior usage
24:35stuff. So, again, I like the fact that they brought in a Ted Hurst. I like Jaylen McMillan probably more than most, and if McMillan
24:43were any in any other offense, I think he can be an outstanding compliment to a number one wide receiver.
24:49Unfortunately, you're in one with Egbuka with Chris Godwin, and he's going to be the number three option, and they just drafted a third-round receiver in Ted
24:56Hurst. but none of that impacts Emeka Egbuka. I I I I I think he lies somewhere in between what it felt like he was going
25:06to do last year and what he finished as, right? Because it was truly a tale of two seasons. And he's probably not that
25:14eight-week stretch good, right? He can't run that hot, but he damn sure ain't what he looked like in the back half of
25:19the season.
25:20>> saw the production. It's not like a theoretical fantasy football asset.
25:23Egbuka averaged 20 points per game through the first five weeks of the year. Uh has that first-round pedigree and look back at sort of what he was
25:31able to do at Ohio State, set the program record for like the most catches there. The guy's a target magnet.
25:37Burden's the interesting one because like you said, not only does he have competition from Rome Odunze, but Cole Kmet and Loveland could lead that team
25:44in targets. But it's also one of those things with the Ben Johnson offense and Burden's talent that you don't want to
25:50be like without him. But I would agree.
25:51I think Burden uh Burden has the upside case there, but Egbuka I think is going to lead all these guys in targets.
25:58McMillan second, and then Burden could end up being in like that 115 to 125 range, but in a really fun 125 targets.
26:09113.
26:10There you go.
26:11>> I got him at 113. I got him at 113. I got him at 113. Um But yeah, that it it it and you know the
26:19the the other like sort of trap in Chicago is they have two good running backs. Khalil Herbert is pretty damn good, too, Theo. So that
26:29you're you're going to run the ball with them. Caleb's going to take his share of rushing. I think the what you really
26:34need to happen, as good as he was, as magical as Caleb was, Caleb's got to be better.
26:38Caleb's got sub-60% completion per like I don't care what like that ain't going to cut it.
26:43You need to be better, Caleb Williams.
26:45If he can just be a 62-63%. I'm not I don't need him to be Joe Burrow, right? I'm not asking him to
26:51throw for 70% of all his passes like a I'm not just be better than that.
26:57There's probably a lot more meat on the bone for everybody in Chicago because the thing that I don't question is I
27:03don't question Ben Johnson's ability to get the ball to his playmakers, right?
27:07There's some of these offenses I just don't trust the offensive scheme to to support three. I just don't, right? I don't
27:13they've never I trust Ben Johnson can do it. Caleb's got to uphold his end of the bargain, but I like I like Burden a lot.
27:19I I love the upside play for Burden. He feels like more of a year three where >> going to be really interesting. Uh
27:25again, like I think Burden the talent is something I wouldn't question and the slot usage there I think should be good.
27:31I and the explosiveness for Burden, uh but again, it's the target competition. Loveland's the one that I think it's just going to go absolutely
27:38nuts this year. Uh and I'm sure that you're going to cover Loveland this this off season, so am I. Let me get you pick
27:44your brain another wide receiver that I think really is giving people headaches right now as to what to do with them.
27:50It's year three for Marvin Harrison Jr.
27:52Are we in or out on Marvin Harrison Jr.?
27:55You know, you have LaFleur coming over, you have the Rams system. LaFleur kind of saying some interesting things out there about how he's in the X role, but
28:03we're going to move him around, feature him. Uh Harrison Jr.
28:07Uh he got dynasty managers in a ton of trouble coming out, Ray. I mean, there was the argument whether we should take
28:14uh Marvin Harrison Jr. as a rookie or Amon-Ra St. Brown in our dynasty startup drafts. Should we draft Should we rank
28:21him ahead of Amon-Ra out the gate? And it's been disappointment after disappointment with Harrison Jr. We've seen the flashes though where the spike
28:29weeks happen. It's really been a lack of consistency. Can he put it together this year and give us a top 15 to 20 season
28:37or you just a passing?
28:40>> Dynasty managers fantasy gamers got themselves into that trouble with Marvin Harrison Jr. Just and I hope All I will say is I hope people learned a lesson.
28:48Um as far as Marv I I think this is much like we were we were just talking about. You said you
28:57expect big things from Koston Loveland.
29:00I meant you got Trey McBride here and I think one thing that people need to remember just to level set about this
29:06offense and you know this Theo. I mean this was a historic pass funnel. Like they just they threw the ball at an
29:12alarming clip. Trey McBride's usage was it it just all the things aligned right. I used to I had a running joke that it didn't
29:19matter if Arizona was down 100 to zero in the first quarter, they weren't going to pull their starters and they were
29:26going to throw the ball until the clock struck zero. They had no running game to account for zero, right? That I don't
29:32think any running back had over 400 damn yards inside that backfield last year.
29:37It was just throw throw throw throw throw and I don't think that's going to be the case this year as evidence by
29:41moves they've made bringing in Allgeier and drafting Jeremiah think the volume's going to go down. I think Harrison could be good, but the expectation of what we
29:50wanted him to be this elite top 15 receiver, hell no. Not with Michael Wilson in the building, not with Trey McBride in the building, not with the
29:57receiving that Jeremiah Love is going to command and not with probably how much pullback we get out of this passing offense in general. No. He's it that is
30:08long that ship is long since sailed, right? It is gone, right? It is left the port, you can't see it anymore. It's
30:13bye-bye. You're just hoping that he can be a compliment to your roster and hopefully regain enough steam to maybe you can trade him away at some point in
30:21time, but no. I don't believe there's any chance of him being a starter.
30:24>> and the inconsistency if there was if there was no Michael Wilson there and it was a clear top two targets there, then
30:31I I could maybe embrace him a little bit more, but I think you're looking more as a flex, a guy you can plug in as your
30:37wide receiver three. And if you're hoping for more than that, you're going going disappointed. Another wide receiver entering their third year in
30:43the league, uh uh a player that's dealt with a number of injuries. I mean, some off-the-field stuff, too, and with when
30:51it comes to Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall's in a situation where you've got Mike Evans coming over, ton of steam there, a lot of juice in terms of his
30:59ability to step in and provide a big impact, but he's 30-plus. You've got George Kittle, also 30-plus, coming off of a big injury. Could this be like the
31:08post-hype sleeper year for Ricky Pearsall, or are you worried about him continuing to struggle to stay on an NFL football field?
31:16>> I mean, he's got to show me he can play football before I start to project him to be anything other than an uncertain
31:20bet week in and week out. And I don't like to I don't like to injury tag players cuz they're healthy now, right, Theo? Like
31:30If they're healthy now, they're healthy now, right? I'm making the bet.
31:34They brought Mike Evans in again for a reason. Christian McCaffrey is still getting his 100 targets as well out of the inside of that offense. Kittle looks
31:43like he's on track, we'll see. And they don't they don't throw the ball as much as you would think they throw the ball,
31:49right? Like Brock Purdy is extremely efficient, extremely efficient.
31:54I got him for like 700 yards, 775, 60 catches, 775 for for Ricky. And I think if he does that, I think fantasy
32:03managers would absolutely hate it, but from an NFL standpoint, Mike Evans probably is going to lead this team if he can stay on the field. It's just a
32:10lot of I mean, Christian Kirk, can he stay on the field? Everybody's just That is real stuff happening inside of this
32:18offense. Do I think he can be year three breakout? If I had to lean yes or no on this one, I would say probably not, in
32:25my opinion. But I think he's a fine player. I think he's a fine player.
32:30>> in ADP. So, it's not like a steamed-up price tag, but again, I do think they're going to get everything they can out of
32:36Mike Evans. And then you've got the George Kittle timeline that's sort of like hanging over our heads. So really I mean
32:43Pearsall feels to me like a player who's going to be better in best ball if he can stay up. We'll have some spike
32:48weeks, but I think the consistent one is actually Mike Evans who's in a range where I talk about the Trinity score
32:54that you guys do race and you know that you're always saying sort of the the trust the Trinity.
33:01Mike Evans feels like a guy that you can trust still even at his age.
33:04>> Yeah.
33:05Absolutely. Absolutely. When he's on the field he's Look at the usage. The moment he came back all it is is tracking
33:11usage, right? Everybody's got all these different metrics and stuff. Like for me I'm a visual learner. So let's put it together, make a dope score that
33:17correlates year over year and you can just see the dots. And when Evans is playing like his usage is high and he's
33:24pretty doggone productive because even at his age like a a one completion 20 yards down the field is worth a hell of a lot more
33:32than the one that's completed 5 yards down the field. And Evans still has an ability to do that. He's a massive
33:38threat inside the red zone. This is a Hall of Fame caliber wide receiver still able to play and San Francisco brought
33:45him in to fill a role and what he does well matches up very well with Shanahan's game. Like this is it's a
33:53very good play action. They do a lot of that kind of stuff. Wide zone. You've got a great running back to take the
34:00looks of the eyes of the deep like this is very good for Mike Evans. That play action game his downfield ability hell
34:06it's what had Brandon Aiyuk over 1,300 yards and he barely got volume, right?
34:11You you always think if somebody inside this offense could get 150 targets how good could they be because of how easy
34:18Shanahan >> interesting and I think like we look at the success Davante Adams had last year.
34:23Take a Davante Adams and instead of having Puka Nacua next to him you've got Ricky Pearsall and at the start of the
34:28year probably Jake Tanjis. So I think Mike Evans gets you to a very very fast start. Let's get back to some of the
34:34younger guys since we spent too long on a 30 plus guy in a breakout show. Let's talk about two guys that you like
34:40heading into year three [clears throat] under the radar and I'll say like Ray, I remember doing this with you years ago
34:46and you were talking up Puka Nacua heading into his rookie season, which is like an all-time hit for you.
34:53Not saying these guys are going to go Puka, but both of these guys can end up providing win rates. The first one's
34:58interesting cuz we saw some very promising usage down the stretch. Adonai Mitchell under the radar right now despite like the Jets beat reporters
35:06sort of hyping him up. The Jets drafted Omar Cooper Jr. They drafted Kenyon Sadiq. So, there's going to be increased target competition, but Mitchell looks
35:16to be the wide receiver two to start out the year opposite Garrett Wilson. Your enthusiasm levels for Mitchell heading into year three.
35:24>> I was a big fan of him coming out of Texas in the first place, right? And then he landed in a situation where it
35:30didn't work out with the quarterback there, Richardson before him and it just they traded him though, right? Young talented player and this is somebody
35:37that Aaron Glenn, coach speak or not, he knew outside outside of football, knew him personally from high school. He wanted this kid. He's always had
35:46downfield ability. He was drafted with enough capital. He was a second round pick a couple of years ago.
35:51Incredible athleticism and he fills a role that Omar Cooper Jr. doesn't do.
35:57The things that Adonai Mitchell can do Omar Cooper Jr. cannot do. They're they're not the same type of receiver.
36:02Garrett Wilson is your one. I'm not betting on Kenyon Sadiq to come in in year one and light the world on fire.
36:08He's got a skill set with a quarterback that still can push the ball down field and at this stage of his career, it's
36:13Yolo Geno Smith. He's on the field all year, right? I guess until you get to the end, maybe they want to see Cade
36:18Klubnik.
36:20Again, a guy that I'm not saying he's going to become Puka Nacua and light the world on fire, but this is a a Jets
36:27passing attack that didn't have one player over 400 receiving yards last year. And I know Garrett Wilson got hurt. Yeah, Adonai Mitchell's going to
36:34be walking into a good situation.
36:36>> just how athletically gifted he was if or he is. When we looked back at the combine, his teammate Xavier Worthy got
36:43all the buzz that year. If there was no Xavier Worthy, then I think it would have been more of the talk of like look
36:49at just how athletic and explosive Adonai Mitchell is. You talk about how Indianapolis it would just seem like a bad fit. They never really fully
36:56embraced him. He flashed for them, then gets to New York last year, and I think that that Sauce Gardner trade is going
37:02to look better and better if they can turn those draft picks into something and end up with wide receiver their wide
37:08receiver two of the future with Mitchell. Cooper is a threat to him, and Cooper does have that YAC ability, that toughness the coaches gravitate towards,
37:16but you got to think Mitchell's got the leg up because he was in the building last year. So, definitely an interesting
37:20one. Talk about Ryan Flournoy. It feels like the entire league is embracing these heavy packages where everybody's going to be in 12, everybody's going to
37:29be in 13. You're seeing all these tight ends going off the board except Dallas.
37:33Dallas feels like an 11-person team, and it feels like Flournoy, that snap share is going to go way, way up. We love the
37:40story, Ray. Senior Bowl invite out of Southeast Missouri State, and then the contingent upside he has if Lamb misses time, if Pickens misses time, and really
37:51if Jake Ferguson even misses time. I think that Flournoy has a pathway.
37:55Yeah, and that's all it is, right? With some of these deeper stash, you know, these deeper breakouts, I always start with what does the
38:02environment look like? Theo, we're talking about if we're talking about who's going to lead the league in passing, Dak Prescott's probably in
38:09everybody's top three. I mean, when he's healthy, he is averaging since 2019 when healthy he's averaging 4,500 yards and 34 touchdowns a season. When he's on the
38:17field plays 16-plus games. Every other year Dak Prescott does it. So, it's you're betting on that quarterback.
38:24They're throwing the ball 600 times a season, right? There's opportunity to galore. You don't have a running back that is a is a
38:32you know, target hog. It's not Christian McCaffrey back there. It's not a Devon Achane. You got Blue, you got Williams.
38:38And Dallas is an 11-personnel team.
38:40They're running three wide receiver sets. That's what they do. And Ryan Flournoy has not only earned his way on the field in three wide receiver sets.
38:48If there's a week where Lamb or Kitchens are banged up or not getting it, you can absolutely see a world in a row where
38:54Flournoy is outkicking wherever he's drafted now. And in best ball, you're thinking, "Damn. This this is a good I'm glad I've got this player who also
39:02provides some touchdown upside." It starts and stops with Dak Prescott. And he probably will >> talk about like coming around with the
39:07small school how Flournoy was able to increase his usage last year.
39:11I think it trends up yet again. It feels like a quote-unquote better in best ball guy. But Ray, it also feels like a
39:18player that at some point you're looking through and it's a waiver wire week and everybody's just running to the waiver wire to add Ryan Flournoy. I think he
39:26fits in well. There's been really a lot of positivity when it comes to not only the other wide receivers, but the
39:32coaching staff just talking about how he's grown. It's also, you know, when we talk about year three guys, uh Flournoy's like almost 27. So, he's an
39:42older veteran, too. So, lots to like there in that profile. Let's talk a little bit about the tight end position.
39:50Uh you know, and we talk about breakout seasons, it feels like we've been waiting forever for Isaiah Likely to have a tight end room all to himself.
40:00He's been boxed out by Mark Andrews in multiple seasons and flashed in games Andrews missed. Now, he follows John Harbaugh over to New York. And
40:09without Malik Nabers on the field, to me this feels like it's going to be the number one target on on New York Giants
40:15to start out the season. should be.
40:18He should be. And this is on the assumption that Malik Nabers is not ready to start the season.
40:23I I've got him starting on pup in my projections, right? So, for me, I've I've already shaved off four games for
40:28Nabers, and then we ramp him up. This is a guy that you remember those back-to-back weeks last year. I think it
40:33was the Cincinnati game, and I don't know if it was the game after that, or maybe it was the game before that. But,
40:39Isaiah Likely catch that pass, he runs down the field, almost scores, fumbles, right? Gets punched out at the goal line. I think it happened again. He Or
40:46he caught the ball in the end zone, and then they thought it was a touchdown, then he didn't hold it, it was slapped
40:50out. John Harbaugh took to the podium and defended him immediately. Like, that ain't on him.
40:57He's making a play for our team. Stuff happens. Whoopty-whoop. Defends him.
41:01He gets this job here in in New York, and his priority guy to bring in >> Yep.
41:06>> was Isaiah Likely. And a fullback, right? They got the damn Ricard, the fullback, and then they brought in Isaiah Likely. And then you're talking
41:13about a team the depth here is Darius Slayton, who's injured, Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields, Calvin Austin, where we last saw him dropping passes for Aaron
41:22Rodgers in Pittsburgh. I like Theo Johnson, but yeah, if Jackson Dart's going to take this step that everybody's saying he's going to take, it's going to
41:30start probably with Dart and Kam Scarabou in the rushing attack, but in the passing game with no Nabers, >> Yeah, Harbaugh told the media John
41:36Harbaugh last season before Likely was banged up to start the year was saying that his goal for Isaiah Likely was to
41:41be an All-Pro. So, I feel like somewhere in the multiverse, they gave the contract in Baltimore to Likely, Andrews is somewhere else this
41:49year, and I think a year from now, the Ravens might look back and say, "We probably should have just kept Isaiah
41:54Likely here." I think he's really good.
41:57We all have can remember the Kansas City game to open up the season in 2024.
42:01Likely looked like a future superstar at the at tight end position. But, he's a classic move tight end. You bring up
42:09Theo Johnson, I think that's a net positive for him. Theo Johnson, Patrick Ricard, you're going to have uh players in there where they're not going to ask
42:16Isaiah Likely to block. He's just going to be a move tight end, going to be a very highly targeted guy. Malachi
42:22Fields, a great blocker at the wide receiver position. So, it's all these kind of lesser threats surrounding him, and everything's going to funnel through
42:31Likely. And if Neighbors misses >> points >> six games, you could get off that very fast start with Isaiah Likely as well.
42:37And if Neighbors comes back, and even if he's a fully with no ramp up and and just steps into his Neighbors-like role,
42:44Likely is still the best bet to be the number two target on the team. Best way to find tight ends that are fantasy
42:49relevant, look for guys that are the number one or number two target on their team. Likely checks off all the boxes
42:54there. Absolutely love it. One that we saw break out last year was Harold Fannin Jr. And the market's interesting, Ray. When it first started out and when
43:03people were drafting in best ball, Fannin was going right around Tyler Warren. It was like the tight end four and the tight end five. Everyone was
43:11enthusiastic about Harold Fannin Jr.
43:13But now, after the NFL draft, the Browns drafted Casey Concepcion and Demond Robinson. And you've got the Deshaun Watson versus Shedeur Sanders stuff
43:23going on.
43:24People are are starting to really question Harold Fannin Jr., a player who last year at 21 years old out of Bowling
43:32Green came out and just nuked David Njoku and led the Browns in catches, targets, receiving yards. Are people make taking this too complicated? Is
43:42Harold Fannin just too talented to regress that much, or are you worried about the other things in Cleveland?
43:48>> This is one where I I cannot overstate how much people are overthinking this one.
43:56I I just I love Casey Concepcion, big fan of Demond Robinson. Hell, I like Isaiah Bond. And I think they fill a role on
44:04that offense, but we're talking about two rookie wide receivers and a guy who's a second-year player who missed a lot of time in Isaiah Bond. Yes, you got
44:12Jerry Jeudy there as well.
44:14Todd Monken, from his time, you can go back to the days when he's at Tampa Bay, you can go back to whenever he was the
44:20offensive coordinator at Georgia and how he prioritized Brock Bowers. And then everything that we've seen him do with tight end sets in Baltimore,
44:28like this is a no-brainer.
44:30This is a no-brainer for a team that improved that offensive front. He nuked David Njoku. He's already shown a propensity to be able to
44:38go out there and deliver and compete at a high level. Can you name the two tight ends after him?
44:43Do you even know who they are?
44:45You don't.
44:46It's Joe Royer and Jack Stoll. What are they going to do? Nothing. This will be the number one target for Shedeur
44:53Sanders or Deshaun Watson. He'll lead the team in targets. He should lead the team in receptions and yards. This one I
45:01am not overthinking at all. I like Kunc and I think he's going to be real good with Boston as the bookend two
45:08receivers.
45:10I I think Cleveland did a great job drafting. They They swung and missed on Watson, but the other moves around, like
45:15this is set up to be very nice.
45:17This is an overthink beyond overthink.
45:20Todd Monken and tight ends are like peanut butter and jelly, like white on rice, right? I'm not overthinking this one at all.
45:28This is the type of player I'm not going to say tight end one overall upside over Bowers or Trey McBride, but where people
45:35are just easily throwing Warren and Loveland in that three spot, I think Kair Elam can push push to be that top
45:42three top two tight end this year.
45:43>> every metric he checked off last year, where he was top 10 in receptions, top 10 in receiving yards, top 10 in YAC,
45:50air yards, touchdowns, everything at the tight end position. He had on nearly a 22% target share, and doing it out of
45:57the MAC, coming out of Bowling Green.
46:00Um, unbelievable. And even some of the most even some of the best players to ever come out of the MAC still were sort
46:07of slow-played their rookie year because going from that level to the NFL, it's a learning curve. Even like Antonio Brown, look at what he did as a rookie versus
46:17what he did in year three. Like you can go back to the very best pass catchers coming out of the MAC, Antonio Gates,
46:22all these sort of guys.
46:24Harold Fannin Jr. just looks like a special talent. And I agree with you. I think even though Kacy Concepcion and Denzel Boston
46:32both really good players, really good picks for them to make. There's a chance those guys kind of cannibalize one another. Whereas Harold Fannin Jr.,
46:40that's the one you want to bet on. I'd be surprised if we see any sort of regression. And he might just be the
46:45real deal. That YAC ability might be even better in year two. So, I'm with you. The The more Harold Fannin Jr.
46:51falls, the better. I've been getting him in the sixth round lately in FFPC drafts where you're getting him tight end premium formats in the sixth round. Hard
47:00to see him failing in that range.
47:02Let's talk about a quarterback though.
47:05You've got all these year two quarterbacks people are talking about, but you've got one you're super excited about, Ray.
47:11>> Tyler Shuck. I mean, I I I I don't even I can't believe I'm saying this, right?
47:16This is the guy that you know, why the hell are the Saints taking him at pick 40 and Tyler Shuck he's 35 years old, but
47:25man, Kellen Moore, Doug Nussmeier as OC, what we saw from him down the stretch last year, his ability to throw the
47:31balls, ability to utilize his legs, and then you quietly start to look around.
47:35They nailed their draft last year, right? People forgot they took Kelvin Banks in the first round, right? Pick six, pick eight, Kelvin Banks comes off
47:42the board. They get Shuck in round two.
47:44They took Taysom Hill a few years ago.
47:47He's the other tackle. Like offensive line is in play, right? They're getting better. You go bring in a Travis Etienne. They still got Kamara. They
47:54still have Devin Neal. We'll see how long that but Olave, drafted Jordan Tyson, I like Juwan Johnson there. You bring in a Noah Fant, get a young tight
48:02end and Oscar Delp, and more importantly, the chef in the kitchen cooking it all up is Kellen Moore.
48:08Uh listen, we've been burned by year two quarterbacks in the past, so I don't want to go out here and be like, "Hey,
48:15this is going to be the next superstar.
48:16He's Justin Herbert 2.0. He's a top five this top But this is a young player that I absolutely think will be put in the
48:23best position possible to succeed by a surrounding cast, by his coach, by his coordinator. And quietly, or hell, loudly, I really like the weapons around
48:33him in New Orleans in a division that I wouldn't consider overly uh overly tough, right? With Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the Atlanta Falcons. So, I think
48:41Shuck should be very very good >> about Bryce getting drafted where you can take Tyler Shuck as your QB2. Uh in
48:47superflex, I think he's a value. Where Shuck's going in that QB 18 to 20 range, they have done a uh like so much around
48:56him. You talk about Oscar Delp, Bryce Lance, let alone the Jordan Tyson addition, Travis Etienne. And then when you look at Kellen Moore over the years,
49:05it's that offensive play pace of play, where you know Tyler Shuck's going to have a ton of actual plays, where uh
49:13Kellen Moore offenses always are like towards the very top of the league in plays run. And then we look at how Tyler
49:18Shuck was down the stretch. So, I love this one, so much cheaper than Jackson Dart, and it's it's year two with uh
49:27it's year two with this system, and a lot of these a lot of these players, whereas Cam Ward has Dable his first year breaking in two
49:34new wide receivers. It's uh for me, it's Shuck's in a great spot. Absolutely love Chris Olave. I think Olave is also going
49:42to be an absolute smash this year. So, I'm with you. I think Tyler Shuck's really interesting fun best ball uh player, but might have a little bit of
49:49single QB value as >> And and that's the thing, you could because there there's something there with the legs, too, right? There's
49:55something there with the legs, too, and if you that's always a win when you draft somebody like that, but in single QB, if
50:01you've got the conviction to say, "I'll just spend a late late pick on that, and I'm going to load up everywhere else,
50:06and I'm going to bet on this situation and this young quarterback." I mean, you said it, and I didn't even think about
50:12it. I like Jackson Dart, but I'd rather I will take Tyler Shough over Jackson Dart.
50:18And man, get at me on on X. Get at me on X @RayGQ, that's Q U E. Check out the work, patreon.com/allgas.
50:26ddfantasyfootball.com.
50:28This year, Theo, for the first time, I'm really getting into weekly projections in a different kind of way, right? In my
50:34football brain kind of way. So, I'm excited to kind of launch that and give that to the people here at RotoWire.
50:42>> putting out. Highly, highly recommend his work. Stick with us here at RotoWire. I'm going to putting shows like this out all July and August. If
50:50you enjoyed this one, hit the like button, and if you want even more, hit that subscribe button. Stick with us here at RotoWire. We're going to help
50:55you crush your leagues this season.
