League-Winning 3rd Round Fantasy Football Targets & FADES

A.J. Brown is a far more physical, bigger wide receiver who typically runs most of his routes at the X position and is a much better yards-after-catch player than DeVonta Smith.

A.J. Brown has consistently been top 10 in first read rate, target share, and air yard share across multiple years regardless of offensive coordinator, demonstrating elite efficiency metrics.

A.J. Brown is a far more physical, bigger wide receiver who typically runs most of his routes at the X position and is a much better yards-after-the-catch player than comparable receivers.

A.J. Brown has maintained elite yards per route run efficiency throughout his career, never dropping below 2.5 until the most recent year, demonstrating unrivaled per-target efficiency with downfield ability and YAC skills.

Analyst prefers St. Brown slightly over George Pickens in round three, ranking him ahead of Pickens in draft priority.

Ohio State wide receiver expected to crush ADP in 2025, continuing the trend of Ohio State receivers outperforming draft expectations.

A healthy CeeDee Lamb could change George Pickens' outlook, as Lamb's return to full health may reduce Pickens' target share and efficiency.

When Lamb misses time, Pickens shows contingent upside and spike week ability, demonstrating his value as a secondary option in the Dallas offense.

Analyst really likes Chris Olave, who is living in round three coming off a career year in Kellen Moore's first season as offensive coordinator.

Olave is coming off a career year with 16.8 PPG, 156 targets, 100 catches, and 1,163 receiving yards under new head coach Kellen Moore and QB Tyler Shuck, and the speaker believes the offense will be 'catered towards Olave' with a history of wide receiver success under Moore.

Olave was a disaster pick in 2024 when he went at the 2-3 turn, playing only eight games due to concussion concerns, representing a cautionary example of paying premium prices for receivers.

Despite paying a premium price in round three, the speaker still likes drafting Olave there and believes the Saints offense is 'one of the ones that we're betting on to break out.'

Olave is getting a boost from last year's results but is being faded this season; the analyst prefers Waddle as an equivalently talented number one receiver.

Ohio State wide receiver expected to crush ADP in 2025, continuing the trend of Ohio State receivers outperforming draft expectations.

The speaker has less optimism for Courtland Sutton compared to Jordan Addison as a talent-based upside bet in the Denver offense.

Sutton is viewed less favorably than Jordan Addison as a talent-based upside bet in the Denver offense.

Mims is coming back for a second year with the Jets as part of their skill group additions.

Derrick Henry was nearly the league winner at running back in his first year in Baltimore in 2024, and would have been a bigger storyline if not for Saquon Barkley's season.

Henry, who usually goes in round two, is being considered as a potential third-round target when he falls, having delivered spike weeks and league-winning performances in the fantasy playoffs last year.

Henry is ranked just ahead of Jeremiah Love at the two-three turn, with the analyst believing he will be a very good rusher despite his age profile, and has massive sprint upside especially in FFPC format.

Ranked just ahead of Jeremiah Love at the 2-3 turn and considered reasonably priced this year; analyst would strongly consider him at picks 101-102 despite his age 33 profile.

Possesses one of the highest ceilings of any running back in the sport, with massive sprint upside in cumulative scoring formats where a single 42-point week carries through the rest of the season.

Historically unprecedented at age 33—no running back has averaged more than 15 points per game at that age in NFL history; continues to destroy drafters and gains production as weather gets colder.

Structurally makes sense as a running back target in this range; unlikely to burn you despite being younger alternatives with more upside and pass-catching potential.

Jacob Sanderson has DeVonta Smith ranked at 302 overall, viewing him as a major priority in round three with a significant drop-off after pick 301, and considers him his favorite floor and ceiling combo among the next group of receivers.

DeVonta Smith showed he could elevate to WR1 level as a rookie, but has settled as WR2/WR3 due to A.J. Brown's arrival; Smith can win as a receiver at every depth of the field and from every position (slot, X, Z).

In 2024, Smith played without A.J. Brown for a couple of games with a competent offensive coordinator and crushed it, seeing 20 targets in under two games (before injury), 155 yards, a touchdown, and averaging 18 PPR points per game.

Without A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith has an opportunity to stake his claim as one of the better wide receivers in the NFL.

Theo Greminger included DeVonta Smith in a dark horse league winners video, noting that simply inheriting the A.J. Brown role would be enough for him to be a smash value, and Philadelphia beat reporters believe he could be used like JSN.

DeVonta Smith has averaged 15 points per game twice at age 27, demonstrating a proven floor rather than theoretical upside.

The speaker compares Devonta Smith's talent level to Chris Olave's, suggesting they are 'pretty similar guys' in terms of pure talent despite Olave's recent production spike.

DeVonta Smith is projected to be a low-end wide receiver one with an estimated 2.2-2.3 yards per route run, making him a fringe WR1 or just inside the top 12 in fantasy rankings.

DeVonta Smith is a more precise player than A.J. Brown who can get open on a wider variety of routes, and the new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion is expected to use him more on post routes, dig routes, and lateral movement in addition to downfield throws.

DeVonta Smith is ranked at 27 overall in PPR rankings at RotoWire, slightly higher than ADP in some formats, with analyst Jacob ranking him at 26 overall.

Wilson is a talent-based case who occasionally falls into round four but appears in round three, making structural sense in this range.

Wilson is one of the best target earners in the league since entering the NFL and will walk into a massive target share even with the Jets' added weapons.

Wilson is one of the easiest receivers to get open on Earth and will command a massive target share regardless of offensive circumstances.

Wilson is ranked 33rd overall and is getting a much cheaper price than ever since his rookie year due to market fatigue, despite setting career highs in targets per route run and efficiency last year.

Wilson set career highs in targets per route run and was more efficient than most of his career last year, suggesting he may have been leveling up as a player before his injury.

Wilson is ranked ahead of Tulu Atwell McMillan and just behind Jaylen Waddle among the three receivers the analyst wants to be overweight on in the draft.

Wilson was tracking as an unbelievable pick last year with WR1 weekly finishes in four of his first five weeks, scoring 19 points in each of those finishes before getting injured.

Wilson is now priced in the fourth round after previously going at the 1-2 turn in high stakes drafts post-rookie year, making him structurally interesting especially in round four.

The analyst is more of a Geno optimist than the market, having been a big fan when he was in Seattle, though he played poorly last year.

Fant is going into year three as one of two really young tackles on the Jets with upside on the offensive line.

Sitting in round three with tremendous efficiency metrics: third in red zone targets, top 10 in first downs per route run, 17+ PPG, top-five WR with career highs (137 targets, 93 catches, 1,400+ yards) at age 25.

Analyst compares Pickens' profile to Tee Higgins, noting the talent gap between Pickens and Lamb is closer than the gap between Higgins and Chase, making him a reasonable early third-round target.

Pickens' talent gap to CeeDee Lamb is closer than Higgins' gap to Chase, making him a reasonable early third-round target with upside in a fun Dallas offense.

Pickens is positioned between Smith and Rashee Rice in rankings, with the analyst expecting to own a share or two in their main event portfolio.

Analyst expects to own 'a share or two' of Pickens in main event portfolio, ranking him between Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice.

Pickens is going off the board as wide receiver 12/low-end WR1 and is expected to finish in a similar range, with contingent upside when CeeDee Lamb misses time.

Pickens is not a player to reach for in the second round; he should be available at the end of the third round and doesn't require an early pull.

The speaker advocates for running the ball more with Pacheco, describing him as 'the first time they have a real threat at running back' for the Chiefs, and believes the team should 'run a lot more and do it with Walker and try to create explosives in the run game.'

James Cook had a career year last year with 1,600-plus rushing yards and averaged nearly 18 points per game, going very close to JSN in ADP.

JSN was an early third-round pick last year and lit the fantasy football world on fire, living in the middle of round three for most of the summer before being drafted at the two-three turn.

Ohio State receiver who caught 100 passes, part of the trend of Ohio State wide receivers crushing their ADP.

The speaker prefers Jaylen Waddle over Chris Olave, believing Waddle is 'equivalently talented' but runs 'even more routes than Olave with how much Denver passes,' making him a better value at similar draft cost.

Waddle probably runs even more routes than Olave given Denver's passing volume, making him an attractive target in the 3rd round.

Love is straddling the two-three turn with Derrick Henry, with the analyst ranking Henry just ahead of him despite Love being the choice a past version of the analyst would have made.

Elite talent and third overall pick being faded by drafters; possesses peak Alvin Kamara-type fantasy ceiling with great receiving upside and explosive big-play ability comparable to Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook.

Getting a crazy discount for the number three overall pick; available at end of third round and becomes an auto-pick if he falls to round four.

Ranked at FFPC ADP of 25 and going at that price consistently; represents the right cutoff point and analyst really wants to be in on him.

Pathway to upside comes through the passing game; not worried about Tyler Allgeier or James Conner taking carries between the 20s, as Love can still rack up significant fantasy volume.

Cardinals likely to justify their third overall pick investment by giving Love goal-line carries rather than Tyler Allgeier, given the largest guaranteed money ever given to a running back.

Difficult to draft over players going directly above him (Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Nico Collins) despite analyst's desire to be in on him.

The speaker has 'a lot more optimism for Jordan Addison as a talent-based upside bet,' noting his ability to draw volume with a career targets per route run over 30% in college.

The second speaker expresses concern that Jordan Addison, compared to CeeDee Lamb, will compete with Chris Olave for targets in the Saints offense, potentially limiting Olave's volume.

Co-host prefers Kenneth Walker over Rashee Rice in the third round, viewing Walker as the better way to play the Chiefs offense.

Analyst is bullish on Kenneth Walker as the Chiefs' first real threat at running back and believes the team should lean into the run game with him.

Analyst believes Walker should be featured in both the run game and passing game to create explosive plays and improve the Chiefs' offensive efficiency.

Stills was drafted as a first-rounder by the Jets to add to their offensive weapons.

Malik Nabers was targeted as a rookie and finished as a top-five wide receiver coming out of round three, providing league-winning value.

Harrison is being drafted at a discount (ranked around 60th overall, round 5-6) after his underwhelming rookie year, presenting value as the market has severely punished him despite his prospect pedigree.

With a new scheme and a couple years older, Harrison should show his best production; similar to how outside receivers like Pickens and Nico Collins took time to reach their apex.

Ohio State wide receiver expected to crush ADP in 2025, continuing the trend of Ohio State receivers outperforming draft expectations.

Becton is going into year two as one of two really young tackles on the Jets with upside on the offensive line.

Wilson is being faded in favor of Marvin Harrison Jr., with the analyst preferring Harrison's discounted price and upside over Wilson at current ADP.

Rashee Rice is ranked 28th, slightly behind ADP, and is going in the third round as a polarizing player with limited league-winner type arguments.

Ranked at 28, slightly behind ADP, but analyst expresses significant concerns about his sustainability as a fantasy asset due to over-reliance on short-route PPR production.

Rice's value is significantly higher in full PPR scoring compared to half PPR, making him a better target in FFPC leagues.

Analyst prefers full PPR scoring for Rice due to his PPR-dependent production style, suggesting he's better valued in FFPC leagues than standard formats.

Rice's role has been weird and inconsistent, though he had been efficient within that role prior to last year.

Despite maintaining volume and fantasy production last year, Rice's efficiency took a significant nosedive, and opposing defenses have begun to shut down his short-route game by season's end.

Analyst questions the sustainability of the Chiefs running 28-30% of their targets through Rice on 6-yard routes, viewing this as an inefficient offensive strategy that teams will continue to exploit.

Analyst expresses nervousness about Rice as a fantasy bet because he views Rice as a limited player compared to other wide receivers at his ADP, making him a risky investment.

Co-host believes Rice is priced correctly at current ADP and expects his PPR-dependent production to be reduced this year due to increased Kenneth Walker usage in the Chiefs offense.

Analyst ranks Rashee Rice in the same tier as George Pickens for round three, with Pickens positioned between St. Brown and Rice.

Rashod Bateman is being discussed as potentially more productive than Elijah Serrat, which speaks to how limited the Ravens' wide receiver competition is.

Analyst compares Higgins' profile to George Pickens, noting that while Pickens was going two rounds later last year, now Higgins is going later, suggesting shifting market valuations.

Ohio State wide receiver who crushed their ADP in 2024, part of a trend of Ohio State receivers outperforming draft expectations.

Analyst views Kelce as a highly limited player at this point in his career.

The speaker mentions Tutu Atwell as a comparable talent to Chris Olave in the late round two to early-to-mid round five receiver range, suggesting similar talent profiles.

Analyst finds Xavier Worthy interesting coming off a shoulder injury, suggesting we may see a better version of him this year compared to last season.

Despite potential improvement from injury recovery, Worthy remains limited as a player due to his size and ball tracking issues.

Flowers has underperformed his peripherals due to limited routes (declining from 588 as a rookie to 470-479 recently) and lack of goal-line targets, but has clear opportunity for improvement.

Flowers is being priced as a fine pick based on recent performance, but has significant upside if routes and touchdowns increase, potentially performing like a round 1-2 player.

With a new offensive coordinator and Mark Andrews aging, Flowers has a massive opportunity to improve to 7-8 touchdowns and increase routes, which would significantly boost his fantasy value.

Flowers is going at the end of the third round and represents a nice consolation prize with higher upside potential.

If Baltimore improves from 31st-32nd in pass attempts to 20th-22nd, Flowers would be the big beneficiary, and could achieve 8 touchdowns with career highs in catches and targets if Lamar Jackson returns to high touchdown pass seasons.

The speaker prefers Zay Flowers over Chris Olave at similar ADP, noting that Flowers is 'probably way more of the clear number one in his offense than Olave is in his,' making her a better value bet.

Zay Flowers has generated positive vibes with strong relationships with new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, ended the year on a high note, and is expected to have a big year in the new scheme.

Zay Flowers has moved up from the fourth round to the third round in early drafting and is ranked at 30 overall, representing good value in the middle of the third round.

Zay Flowers has shown elite efficiency improvement, increasing from 1.72 yards per route run as a rookie to 2.25 as a sophomore and 2.53 last year, matching the elite efficiency numbers A.J. Brown has consistently produced.

Zay Flowers' route count has declined from 588 as a rookie to 470 and 479 in subsequent years, not due to team limiting him but because the Ravens have had lower pass rates in recent seasons.