10 Players You NEED to Draft in 2026 Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 30, 2026
Published
Sun, August 30, 2026
27
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
De'Von AchaneA.J. BrownAshton JeantyBaker MayfieldBrock BowersBucky IrvingChase BrownColston LovelandD.J. MooreDalton KincaidDrake LondonGarrett WilsonGeorge KittleJalen Hurts
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeValue38:00
Round two WR favorite despite age 29/30 season concern. The 2024 efficiency drop-off shouldn't be held against him given Philadelphia's broader offensive issues; historically he is one of the most efficient per-target wide receivers in the NFL. Moving to New England provides a QB upgrade for fantasy production standpoint with much more pass volume than he had in Philadelphia, and less target competition without Devonte Smith and Dallas Goedert. The source views him as good talent entering an uncertain situation with upside not fully captured in ADP.
Insight pageAshton Jeanty
NegativeValue14:20
Now entering the round-two running back mix in 2026 drafts, sometimes going at the very end of the second round, expanding the pool of running backs competing for draft capital in that range.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveValue10:31
Late-round QB dart with significant bounceback potential; huge discount from previous two seasons when he was drafted as QB8 overall; Tampa Bay offense expected to improve with year-two Ibuka, offensive line upgrades, and Brandon Thorne ranking them third overall; team suffered ton of injuries last season that sabotaged production.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
NegativeProjection1:09
Brock Bowers is cited as a comparison point for Dalton Kincaid's target per route run efficiency. Both Bowers and Trey McBride operate at around 27% target per route run, but at an average depth of target under 7 yards, whereas Kincaid achieves similar efficiency at over 8 yards depth, making Kincaid's profile unique. Brock Bowers is one of the big four tight ends and goes at an early first-round ADP in FFPC, establishing him as a premium-priced tight end option.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveValue26:12
Ranked RB 21–24 and going as early as fifth round; the source is ahead of market on Irving. Key upside drivers: elite yards-per-run efficiency over last two seasons despite efficiency crater last year (attributed to shoulder injury and O-line injuries); expected to regain goal-line role after having none last year when Shawn Tucker handled it; potential for even more goal-line work if Buccaneers cut Tucker to save money; effective pass-catcher in base despite Gainwell addition; year-three back with dynamic pass-game profile and crazy efficient rookie season.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeBust18:08
The source fades Chase Brown despite his elevated ADP, citing talent concerns and role uncertainty. While acknowledging his 20+ fantasy points per game average with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense's easy schedule, the source argues his elevated cost is driven by an unsustainably hot touchdown finish in 2024, running nearly double his touchdowns-per-touch rate compared to his full Burrow sample. End-of-season goal-line carries were ceded to Sam Darnold, and the source emphasizes that at the one-two turn, a sub-elite talent at running back requires 100% workhorse role confidence. Chase Brown's FFPC main event price has risen to 11th overall (first round), ahead of Justin Jefferson and other elite running backs, largely due to Ashton Jeanty's injury pulling him up the board. The source views him as a solid pick that won't hurt you badly, but lacks the talent profile of top-14 to top-15 running backs.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue73:27
Colston Loveland is one of the big four tight ends and goes somewhere in the mid-second to late second round in FFPC ADP.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeProjection2:42
The source expresses a fade on DJ Moore, citing his 2024 production decline: 1.33 yards per route run and 17% target per route run in a run-centric Bears offense. The bear case is that this is an aging wide receiver coming off one of his worst years. The source acknowledges the bullish case that the Bills' desperation for a wide receiver one (evidenced by their reliance on Brandon Cooks last season) could drive target share upside, but concludes the market on FFPC is too bullish on Moore at his current cost.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveProjection0:00
Kincaid is a small-miss, big-hit tight end with top-4 to top-5 upside at current ADP. Over the last two years, he's posted 27% target per route run and phenomenal yards per route run, metrics in line with Trey McBride and Brock Bowers; however, Kincaid achieves this at an average depth of target over 8 yards, whereas McBride and Bowers operate under 7 yards, making him unique in combining high target per route run with deep target depth. Camp reports suggest he's progressing from a 55% snap count toward 70–75%, which represents a major profit opportunity at his current ADP. He dealt with a PCL injury last year that did not require surgery and has settled into the tight end 10–12 range depending on format, representing an appealing entry point and the easiest it's ever been to draft him.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeValue14:02
Source fades Devon Achane as part of round-two RB group (Achane, Chase Brown, Omarian Hampton) that source is not as interested in relative to preferred targets Saquon Barkley, Derek Henry, and Kenneth Walker.
Insight pagePositiveValue20:43
The source is bullish on De'Von Achane in the second half of the second round, positioning him as a contrarian pick against a lot of really smart people who are fading him. While acknowledging offensive challenges, the source argues Achane will exceed expectations due to: (1) the Dolphins' need to design passing-game touches for him; (2) Tua Tagovailoa's ability to open up explosive runs; and (3) offensive line upside with youth and recent draft picks like Kaden Proctor and See Ava (year two). The source frames this as a mental exercise upside scenario where the market undervalues potential unit improvement. However, the source also notes Achane has moved down more due to uncertainty around Tagovailoa's pass attempts and Achane's potential decline in receiving volume, which is critical to his value.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeProjection38:00
Drake London is a round two WR favorite with high-end ceiling despite QB situation uncertainty. Tua Tagovailoa talent is a concern on one hand, but solid backup QB floor on the other. His target share has been absolutely incredible, creating a really high-end ceiling. He has incredible splits in games where Michael Penix starts, averaging 20 points per game over 14 games. The source highlights him as part of an appealing group of wide receivers this year.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveValue34:52
The source and Chris Vicaro are both very in on Garrett Wilson. Frank Reich called him a bellcow for a wide receiver, which the source notes is awesome to hear a coach use for that position. Wilson's target-earning ability remained intact despite the 2024 QB downgrade with Justin Fields (Jets averaged just 24 pass attempts per game, pitifully low), but Wilson's per-route-run target earning didn't decline. Now paired with Gino Smith upgrade, Wilson could lead the NFL in targets this year while remaining cheaper than last year's ADP despite an objectively better situation. Wilson pairs really well with Lad McCourtney at the 3–4 turn in drafts.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveValue70:12
George Kittle is the source's favorite value in the tight end range (Tucker Craft, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Harold Fannon tier) for FFPC/tight end premium leagues. Despite being an aging player coming off an Achilles injury, the source believes if he can stay healthy through the first half of the season, his per-game upside is consistently more than other players in this range at a cheaper cost. The San Francisco offense has lost Ricky Pearsall for the year and has Brandon Aiyuk uncertainty, with an aging Mike Evans and rookie Stribbling, so Kittle could see more consistent workload and centralized targets with CMC getting the lion's share; the source trusts Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy's ability to boost fantasy production for pass catchers.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue10:00
Jaylen Hurts is a premium QB available around pick 100 in FFPC with rushing upside via tush push equity and expected increased design run game usage beyond prior seasons. He offers comparable ceiling to Josh Allen at much cheaper cost despite lower floor, making him part of the three premium QB options (Lamar, Jaden Daniels, and Hurts) that are all pretty viable at cost right now.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveValue12:48
Late-round QB option with good setup when waiting at the position; well-positioned for late-round stacking strategy alongside Bo Nix.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveValue4:20
Jaden Daniels is available in rounds 5–6 or even round 8 with legitimate upside comparable to Josh Allen but at a fraction of the cost. He offers unique rushing upside similar to Lamar Jackson's from his rookie year passing efficiency and dual-threat ability. You can take Jaden Daniels with another QB late as a stacking backup without forcing auto-start every week, making the upside bet affordable and flexible for roster construction. Around pick 100 in FFPC (round 9), Daniels provides comparable ceiling to Josh Allen at much cheaper cost, allowing flexibility to stack with late-round QB dart throws like Baker Mayfield.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveRole31:40
The narrative has shifted to Jaylen Warren taking over the Kenneth Gainwell receiving role in Pittsburgh. Warren has big receiving upside and was really good as a runner last year. The source views the Pittsburgh backfield as worth taking shots on in all formats because both Warren and Rico Dowel are cheap, and at least one could produce running back two production throughout the year.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue4:12
Josh Allen is QB1 in every single draft and format with historically safe production and legitimate upside, deserving QB1 status based on his historical track record of top-three PPR production when healthy. However, the cost is too expensive relative to alternatives. Allen is going in round 4 in NFC drafts and the four–five turn in FFPC, while Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Jaylen Hurts, and Drake May go in rounds 5–6 or even round 8, creating an unjustifiable premium for roster construction. The ADP gap between Allen and QB2 options with comparable upside has never been wider, making it difficult to justify the early pick when you can get QB2 with upside later and allocate capital to deeper running back and wide receiver classes. You can take Jaden Daniels with another QB late without forcing auto-start every week, capturing upside without premium capital allocation.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
NegativeValue26:24
Positioned as low-end RB3 in Tampa Bay backfield; the source ranks him as break-even at current ADP. Benefited from strong fit with Aaron Rodgers last year; expected to remain successful this season but not at a discount. The source assesses him as fine where he goes and solid, but emphasizes he's a break-even player at his ADP. Gainwell addition to backfield does not eliminate Bucky Irving's pass-catching role, as the two may play different positions and be utilized in different ways.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue14:02
Preferred round-two RB target; source made contrarian bet on Walker in Man Versus Machine with Evan Silva, viewing him as explosive RB with consistency issues who is now joining team committed to making him clear RB1 alongside generational QB talent.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveValue10:00
Lamar Jackson is at the cheapest ADP for him in a long time. He's a premium QB with rushing upside comparable to Jaden Daniels' dual-threat profile, offering comparable ceiling to Josh Allen at much cheaper cost despite lower floor than Allen. The source identifies Lamar, Jaden Daniels, and Jaylen Hurts as the three premium QB options at cost that are all pretty viable right now.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveProjection67:12
Nico Collins gets a boost with Jaden Higgins out. Lance Zerine projects approximately 15 more targets total coming Nico Collins' way this season if he stays healthy over the full year.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
NegativeValue14:02
Source fades Omarian Hampton as part of round-two RB group (Hampton, Chase Brown, Devon Achane) that source is not as interested in relative to preferred targets Saquon Barkley, Derek Henry, and Kenneth Walker.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveValue14:02
Preferred round-two RB target betting on bounceback for Eagles offense and O-line after poor 2025 season; talent too significant for Philadelphia not to improve overall performance.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeProjection1:09
Trey McBride is cited as a comparison point for Dalton Kincaid's target per route run efficiency. Both McBride and Brock Bowers operate at around 27% target per route run, but at an average depth of target under 7 yards, whereas Kincaid achieves similar efficiency at over 8 yards depth, making Kincaid's profile unique. Trey McBride is one of the big four tight ends and goes somewhere in the one-two turn to mid-second round in FFPC ADP.
Insight pageTyler Warren
NegativeValue73:35
Tyler Warren was moving up and up until he got slightly banged up; he was going as a two-three turn pick but has now settled in somewhere in the mid-third to late third round in FFPC ADP.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00breaking down lastminute ADP head-to-head decisions as well as talking about a couple of breakout players for the 2026 fantasy football season. I'm Theo Greinger, lead fantasy
0:10analyst right here at Rotoire. Joined today by Mike Leone of Establish the Run. It's been too long since Mike and I
0:16potted together. Uh and Mike, we got to start right off the top. There's a tight end that you're in on this year and it's
0:23Daltton Concincaid. Is this finally the big season from Daltton Concincaid that we've been waiting for after he got the exceptional draft capital uh followed up
0:33by a very promising rookie year?
0:36>> Yeah, I've been in on King K basically every year and I am obviously a Bills fan. So maybe there's a little
0:42homerisism creeping in here. So I want to caveat you know what I'm about to say with all of that. But when I'm looking
0:49at concade, it just seems to me like the type of player that's very much the definition of potentially like a small
0:56miss but a big hit type of player. Uh especially where he's going in drafts. I think you don't need like a massive
1:02season to pay value. But I do think there's top, you know, four to five tight end upside here. His yards per
1:09route run was phenomenal last season.
1:11Each of the last two years he's put up around 27% target per route run. That's in line with like McBride and Bowers.
1:18And McBride and Bowers do that at an A dot that's under seven. King Kay does it at an A dot that's over eight. So
1:25there's really nobody in the NFL that kind of combines this average depth to target at the tight end position with such a high target per route run. So
1:35that's what I want to invest in. I understand that it's been frustrating with the injuries and then even when he's been healthy, he's not always
1:42playing a full complement of snaps, but the the drum beat from camp has been pretty positive that I think he's inching his way from like more of like a
1:49from a 55% snap roll to he could get to 70 75% snap roll. And if that happens, it's going to be a huge profit for, you
1:58know, his current ADP.
1:59>> Yeah. I mean, I really think that was one of the things that was holding him back was the team really liked Dawson
2:03Knox and some of those previous years.
2:05Kinc Kade obviously dealt with some injuries as well. We know he's got the talent. Um, you know, he he was dealing
2:10with the PCL thing last year. Didn't require surgery. Settled in right at around tight end 10 through 12 range depending on your format, but uh going
2:19in sort of a an an appealing group of tight ends where I think Kade's got a path. This could be his year. Uh, and it
2:26feels like the easiest it's ever been to sort of click on his name when you're actually OTC. I think that's a big
2:32indicator. Does your enthusiasm for King Kade coincide with like a fade of DJ Moore or are you in on both Bill's pass
2:39catchers at cost?
2:42>> It's a little bit of a fade on DJ Moore.
2:45Um I think they could, you know, both coincide. I mean, we've got a new coaching staff, which is obviously the same OC getting promoted and Joe Brady
2:54there, but we don't know if from a macro strategy standpoint if this team could be more aggressive throwing the football, um, which could benefit, you
3:01know, obviously the entire offense. The concern with Moore, quite frankly, just comes down to like how much you're blaming him for his production last
3:09season. He was down to 1.33 yards per route run, uh, 17% target per run. It was a really frustrating year for DJ
3:18Moore on a Bears offense that was kind of like turning in the right direction.
3:22And when you start looking at his age and whatnot, it makes it a tough eval. So the Bear case is just that this is an aging wide
3:31receiver who's coming off one of his worst years in in like a run-centric offense. If you're making the bullish case, it's that, you know, the Bills
3:38when they signed Brandon Cooks last season became like almost reliant on him right away. like they're kind of desperate for this wide receiver one and
3:46we could see maybe that target share explode despite Moore's, you know, lack of target earning ability last season.
3:52So, I'm all over the place with this one. I feel like it could go any which way, but I do think the market, at least
3:58on FFPC, is a little too bullish right now.
4:01>> Yeah, I've moved DJ Moore up in my rankings, but I had him like completely buried and and there's been like some of
4:06the wide receivers behind him. Um, it's sort of hard to like move those guys ahead is sort of my take with with DJ
4:12Moore. Um it's much easier if you're building Josh Allen correlation to just go with King Kade like you said uh more
4:20I think the opportunity cost now he's he's gone I mean we've seen him fly off the board in NFC drafts where he's
4:27going in like the fourth round and then FFPC sort of living in that four five turn area. Uh, so it's definitely a a
4:35big expense, but what's interesting is Josh Allen is in a tier of his own and he's QB1 in every single draft, every
4:43single format, but quarterback in general has been pushed down a little bit. Are you open-minded to drafting Josh Allen and sort of opening up the
4:53quarterback drafting in like your own leagues? Is it a value to take him where he's going or is it uh you're passing up
5:01on all these guys at wide receiver and running back and tight end potentially with all these strong quarterback options a little bit later?
5:08>> So, I definitely think Allen deserves to be the QB1. I mean, we've just seen what he's done historically year after year,
5:14the safest. I do think, you know, the the upsides obviously there as well.
5:19With that said, the cost is too expensive when you just compare it to the other options. you know, he's never had such a gap in ADP between him and
5:26the guys like Lamar Burrow, you know, Jaden Daniels, Herz, Drake May, and it's hard for me to justify, you know, if
5:33those guys were going in like rounds five and six, right? Like a 34 Josh Allen looks a little bit more appealing
5:40when Josh Allen's going, you know, 34 and those guys are going in like you can get them in round eight sometimes. some
5:47of these the QB2 that also has this legitimate upside even though it's attached with more risk. So from I think a roster building standpoint it doesn't
5:57really make sense to pay the premium on Allen right now.
6:00>> Yeah. I mean I think that that that's sort of been a lot of very smart people's uh takes and certainly I
6:06haven't been drafting any Josh Allen. I do worry about missing out on him though because I think we there's so many of us
6:13are like seeing all these quarterback values in round seven, round eight, even later in the double digit rounds and it's like it's Josh Allen. He's sitting
6:22there in round four. And when we look back historically, like we think we've got round four and round five figured out, but every year there's so many
6:30landmines in those ranges. So, I don't know, Mike. I think when we get like when push comes to shove and it's like
6:36those last two weeks where I'm cramming in as many drafts as possible, I've got to have like one high stakes uh entry
6:43that has Josh Allen in it. Um your thoughts on just sort of the counterargument that I'm available to sort of avoid potential landmines,
6:52potential dead zone running backs just by taking this weapon of mass destruction in Josh Allen.
6:58Yeah, I mean I think there's always a concern that when you're fading a really exciting player and you're not fading the player because you think you're
7:05going to fail in any way, like it's it's a scary fade. Um, but ultimately, despite the landmines in that area of
7:12the draft, I don't think running back and wide receivers as deep as we've seen it, you know, in past years, which
7:18contributes to this a little bit. I think that, you know, there's less production from wide receiver two and wide receiver threes than, you know,
7:26historically we've seen. Uh we also didn't have a great rookie class, uh especially at the running back position, which a lot of times is, you know, kind
7:35of our zero RB candidates or our bench stashes. So, with that in mind, I am placing a bit more emphasis on getting
7:41running back and wide receiver earlier.
7:43And again, it comes down to me like like I can take um you know a we we'll look at some other quarterbacks later, but I
7:50I can take a Jaden Daniels with another QB late. Like those almost aren't even one QB teams anymore. In the past, you
7:57had to kind of make your bet if you were paying premium for like these guys with huge upside. Uh now in some of these
8:03cases, you can take that upside bet and still kind of have like a stacking backup uh you know another kind of
8:10second upside bet along with it because the cost you're getting on the QB is so much cheaper that you don't have to you
8:16know force yourself to auto start that that player every single week.
8:20>> Yeah. Let's dive into the quarterbacks in a moment, but but let's backtrack.
8:24You know, you mentioned the the lack of depth with running backs. A lot of analysts are on a running back, running
8:31back start, not only in baseball, but also in reddraft. With your reddraft teams, do you feel more comfortable when you go running back, running back, or
8:41are you still, hey, I'm going to go hero, I'm going to stack up these wide receivers and then sort of figure out
8:46running back two a little bit later.
8:49>> Yeah, I'm I'm always pretty flexible from a roster construction standpoint, I feel like. and um I've kind of I guess
8:56stayed in the middle which you know in the past has maybe made me more willing to draft RBs than the market and in this
9:01year might make me more willing to draft wide receivers early than the market. So I think you can you play it by ear. I
9:08certainly am, you know, not doing like a full zero RB build, you know, which is like literally no RBs through six,
9:14seven, eight rounds. Like I'm not doing anything that extreme this season, but I'm fine with the hero RB build. I do
9:20think, you know, the wide receiver talent in the first four to five rounds is there uh to justify that and really
9:27trying to beat people in the flex, especially in full PPR leagues. Um you brought up NFC earlier where you got to
9:33start the three wide receivers. Um I'm not impressed with the depth at wide receiver ear either. Um so I I don't
9:41think the scarcity, you know, argument applies only to the running back position.
9:45>> Let's backtrack back to quarterback. You know, we talked about Josh Allen. You mentioned Jaden Daniels. I know Jaden Daniels has been a big target of yours.
9:54Uh talk about the appeal of him this year and then also a couple of other quarterbacks that you're open-minded to.
10:02Um basically all the way down to your to your lower ranked quarterbacks that you want exposure to.
10:07>> Yeah, I think the two I guess premium quarterbacks I mean the three premium quarter Lamar, Jaden Daniels, and Jaylen Herz I think at cost are all like pretty
10:16viable right now. Um, this is the cheapest we've gotten Lamar in a long time. And, you know, like Allen, he has
10:22the historical track record that, you know, when he's healthy and he's out there, the the points per game production is going to be top three or
10:30so at the position. Um, and then with Jaden Daniels and Jaylen Herz, I do think you just have this rushing upside.
10:36hurts of course with the tush push equity. It also sounds like they're going to try and get him in the design
10:42run game a bit more than he has been the past couple of seasons. So, I'm excited for that. And with Jaden, you just go
10:50back to his rookie year and he had sort of the passing efficiency along with this unique rushing upside similar to Lamar's rushing upside that you don't
10:59really see. Uh, so I really, this is part of the the anti-A Allen argument is just that these guys have lower floors
11:06than Allen. Uh, but I do think they have comparable ceilings at much much cheaper costs. Um, you know, in some league
11:15single quarterback leagues, you can get um, you know, FFPC for example, you can get Jaden and Herz like around pick 100.
11:23You know, we're talking round nine at that point. And that's what I was talking about before, uh, where at that point you you're not boxing yourself
11:31into a one quarterback build. You know, you can still kind of take a late dart throw on, you know, a Baker Mayfield or
11:37something late. And Baker is probably one of my favorite quarterbacks further down the list. I think it's going to be a pretty big bounceback season for the
11:44Tampa Bay offense in general. Uh, you know, you get year two Ibuka, you get the offensive line. Uh, Brandon Thorne at established a run for us has them
11:53ranked third, I believe, overall in his rankings. They had ton of injuries that really sabotaged the team and the offense last season. Um, and we've just
12:01seen kind of that, you know, we were taking Baker really early in drafts the previous two seasons and now there's a
12:07huge discount on him. So, if you do miss that sort of tier, I guess of um like second elite quarterbacks behind Allen,
12:14I mean, you can wait very very long and still get a couple of upside bets. The other one I want to hit on is Kyler
12:21Murray. Um I think people just have a little bit of a sour taste in their mouths with Kyler. Uh, but I really
12:28think this is a great spot for him to go to with a really good coach and staff, really good skilled players, a division
12:33where he's going to play a lot of dome games, a lot of kind of shootouts with Chicago and and Detroit there. So, uh,
12:40I'm excited for Kyler as well.
12:42>> Yeah, Kyler's definitely been an interesting one. QB2 range. Uh, Baker really good name and Baker you can get like exceptionally cheap. He's like one
12:50of these guys you you can wait and and it seems like few people are pushing him up the board. Last year, like you said,
12:55there was a period of time where we were taking him as like the QB8 overall. Uh, and we look at how special that 2024
13:02year was. I like Jared Goff and Bo Nicks a lot on when if you're waiting for quarterback. I think both of those
13:08players are sort of set up. But I love your point that, you know, in the past when we took an elite quarterback, maybe
13:14you take the quarterback six overall, the quarterback five, you would sometimes even go like with a naked QB build and just draft one quarterback.
13:22Nowadays, you definitely don't need to do that because like you said, if I get 10th round Jaylen Herz, there's nothing stopping me from taking like even like
13:31Brock Pury in round 12, you can double tap quarterback more easily than in any previous year. I thought that was a
13:36great great uh answer. Let's pivot over to running back. And I think this is a really maybe the most important question
13:43for people drafting over the next couple days. You've got this massive group of running backs that are going right around the the one-two turn. And we'll
13:52take uh James Cook off this list. We'll take Jonathan Taylor off this list. And there's occasional one-off drafts where even Christian McCaffrey might fall to
14:02the to the one-two turn. But in your normal league, you've got this group of running backs sort of going inside of
14:08round two. I'll read a couple names.
14:10Kenneth Walker, Omarian Hampton, Devon Achan, uh Chase Brown, Derek Henry, uh Saquon Barkley, and now you've got
14:20Ashton Genty in the mix where sometimes Genty goes at the very end of the second, and that's not even including some of those third round running backs.
14:27But when you specifically look at that group of running backs that are usually going in round two, is there a player or
14:33two that you're very into? And is there also a player that maybe you're fading and not looking to get exposure to?
14:42>> Yeah, I mean at that one two turn, I'm probably looking at Barkley, Henry Walker as you know my more preferred
14:49targets and not as into Chase Brown, Hampton, and Achan um to kind of segment I guess though and Genty as well to
14:57segment those seven running backs. Uh with with Barkley and Henry, I think we know the talent in those running backs is there. Barkley, you're betting on a
15:08bounceback for the Eagles O line and offense in general. I think kind of the whole operation stunk last year. And we
15:14do see where even a talented running back is somewhat at the mercy of, you know, the ecosystem he's in. But I am
15:19betting on that that bounce back for Philadelphia. I think they're too talented overall and Barkley in particular to to not have that bounce
15:27back. Um Henry's cost I don't I don't totally get. I think you know maybe with the new coaching staff people are a
15:32little bit concerned but this is a guy where the efficiency is still there. The goal line role is 100% his. Um does
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17:38>> And then Walker, I kind of took the bare case on him in Man Versus Machine with Evan Silva. Uh it's one that I'm a
17:44little bit worried about I'm going to lose, but those are often times the bets you do want to make, which is a really
17:51explosive running back. He's had some consistency issues, but really explosive running back who's now changing teams for a team that wants to make him a
17:59clear RB1, playing with, you know, a generational talent at the quarterback position. Um, I I think, you know, I'm really excited for that. So, those are
18:08the three I'm into. Of the ones I'm fading, the price I guess I don't get the most is Chase Brown. I think he's
18:15fine like mid and the second round. I think he's a solid pick. I don't think he's going to like really hurt you too
18:21badly. But I do get concerned when I'm looking at like the top 14 to 15 running backs. If there's one that looks like
18:27they don't belong from a talent perspective, it's probably Chase Brown.
18:30And you know, his involvement last season, I think in the end of the season, he was seating some goal line carries to Sam Pry. Some routes run to
18:42him. Like if I'm taking a sub elite talent at the running back position at the one-two turn, I want to have full
18:49confidence that he's got a 100% workhorse role. Um, now obviously he's playing in an amazing system with Joe Burrow and a Cincinnati offense that has
18:59an easy schedule. He's probably going to score a ton of points. We saw when they do score a ton of points and a last
19:03season, Chase Brown averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game down the stretch. So you had that. Uh, but I did
19:09look back at that and I feel like he ran really hot on touchdowns with the team way outperforming their team totals and
19:15also his touchdowns per touch there.
19:17Even if you just look at his full with Burrow sample the last two seasons was like almost double down that stretch.
19:23And I think that's resulting in him having a much higher cost than he should have. Whereas if the production was a
19:28little bit more spread out last season and we didn't have like this crazy finish to the year, he wouldn't be propped up, you know, quite as high as
19:35he is right now. The Chase Brown one is is super interesting, Mike, because I've had so many guests that are making like
19:40the bull case for Chase Brown. And I think the the the the stat that people love to throw out there is 20 points per
19:48game in in Joe Burrow starts and and sort of ran Pier with that one. It's two-year sample size. But then I
19:53actually talked to a drafter who's one of the better highstakes guys around and he's sort of struggling with the idea of
19:59taking Chase Brown at the turn and he brought up the exact same thing you did where it's not a knock on Chase Brown
20:04but from a pure talent standpoint. He's a he was a a day three pick for a reason. Uh certainly he's had this
20:11unbelievable two-year run, but his most recent FFPC main event price tag according to Fantasy Mojo, he's going 11 overall this week. So, he's moved into
20:21the first round. Um, you're taking him ahead of right now Justin Jefferson and ahead of all of the other running backs
20:28that we talked about. So, I think that's a little bit of a a result of the Ashton Genty injury, the Chase Brown sort of
20:34getting pulled up there and people love the offense, but you make a really a really interesting case about not taking him there. Achan's the one where I think
20:43there's a lot of really smart people like yourself that are sort of on the big Achan fade and I'm sort of taking
20:48the I'm I'm not fading Achan but I'm I'm very comfortable taking him in the second half of the second round. Uh I
20:55think that he's going to end up sort of exceeding expectations.
20:58I understand the the the challenges with the offense, but I think they're going to have to design things for him in the
21:04passing game. And I think that Willis can open things up for him in terms of explosive runs. And I think the
21:10offensive line also has a chance to improve this year in Miami. There's some youth there. Um, and they drafted and they certainly have a couple guys that
21:18they have a little bit of confidence in.
21:19So, Achan for me is the one that I won't get away from. Do you think I'm I'm stuck in my priors? Talk me off of
21:26Achan. What's your bare case for a guy that's been so good for us fantasy-wise?
21:31Yeah, I mean of that fade list, I guess the ones I'm more confident in are probably Brown and Genty and less
21:38confident in the Hampton and Achan. Um, and fine taking H Chan in the end of the second round, just not at that one two
21:45turn cuz he's sort of like the reverse of Chase Brown, right? Like this is the guy where the talent's there. I mean, he
21:52is, you know, one of the most electric players in the NFL and he's also highlighted, you know, a tremendous ability in the passing game. We're just
22:00docking him for the system. I know you mentioned the O line improvements, but right now Thorne has Dolphins ranked 28th in O line.
22:06>> And I [clears throat] say we have them we have them ranked super low too on our offensive line rankings, but I just
22:12think of like they draft Kaden Proctor.
22:14Uh See Ava is like a year year two. It's like some of I just mental exercise upside there. There's some upside. Yeah.
22:22>> Yeah. No. And and that's sometimes how you win is is for seeing units like that improving more than more than the market
22:29does. Um but between that and you know some uncertainty with Willis, also the lack of pass attempts from Willis, I think you know the big reason we have
22:39Achan moving down more than anything else honestly is just him taking a big hit in in the pass game. And I think
22:45that is going to be critical to his value. Can he maintain, you know, not he's certainly not [clears throat] going to need to have as many receptions and
22:51targets as he did last season, but how much does he lose, you know, with with the switch to Malik Willis, I think, is
22:57going to go a long way towards determining, you know, whether or not he pays off his tag.
23:02>> Okay, let's go a little bit further down the list at running back. Raandre Stevenson or Trayvon Henderson. The ADPs have now converged with Tayvon Henderson
23:11getting banged up at practice and sort of every single beat reporter telling us how prominent RAR Stevenson's role is going to be at least early on in the
23:19year. They're literally backtoback in in main events this week. Where are you at on if you could pick one to have for the
23:25full season, Henderson or Mandre?
23:28>> Yeah, I hate to be the boring guy, but I'm going to say Raandre here. Um, it's one of those tough things because and
23:35Jacob Sanderson wrote about this and made some good points, but like we kind of knew some sometimes we overreact to who's going to be the starter where it's
23:43like the beginning of the summer we knew was probably going to be Raandre starting day one and now that we get hit
23:48with it, sometimes there's an overreaction to something that like should have been baked in already. Um, my counter to that though a little bit
23:56is it's not just that he's RB1. It's like like the drum beat out of camp is very strong that he's like the clear
24:02RB1. It's 100% his back field. It's not like your typical like veteran difference and and we'll see how the things play out. So when we're working
24:12on our inputs for our projections, I know we're struggling to almost not even get him more work than we have him and
24:17we already have him ranked like pretty aggressively relative to market and a little bearish on Trayvon. Um, you know, there's this thought that Trayvon's
24:25gonna have this really good, you know, standalone passcatching role. Um, but we're kind of leaning towards Raandre even out targeting him. Um, having more
24:35of the goal line work, more of the base work. So, on an offense that, you know, with a with an ascending quarterback and
24:42you trade for an elite wide receiver, one in AJ Brown, it should be a pretty valuable position. So, I don't think you
24:48have to hard fade Henderson just because you're playing Raandre, but I do prefer Raandre. Henderson's starting to slip to the point where I think you can make the
24:57argument of like, okay, this was a really talented prospect. When he got his chance last year, we did see him hit
25:03the home run ball a couple of times.
25:05And, you know, I think he did against the Bills, he did against Tampa Bay. And had those games been rearranged a little
25:11bit, he might even going be going earlier than than he is now. Um, so I I don't think it's like all hope is
25:19lost on on Tayvon, especially at this falling price tag. I think you can make the second half of the season upside
25:24case. I just think there's a little bit too much projection there if you're taking him outright ahead of Raandre.
25:31>> I Henderson's been one of my guys and I've had to I mean, begrudgingly, I've had to drop him in my own rankings. And
25:38on the flip side, I've also had to move up Stevenson. I'm I'm in on Henderson still if I can get that seventh round
25:44access to him, which I think we'll start to see. We're starting like he's falling where these one-off drafts where you're seeing him in the late sixth. Um it
25:51feels like a micro difference, but when you look at sort of the running backs available, if I'm like headtohead and it's Blake Corum or Trayvon Henderson,
25:59it's it's like a no question type pick for me. Uh Mandre, I think that you're right, the drum beats are there that
26:05he's looked really good as a pass catcher. there's been this connection with him and Drake May that we've seen for multiple years now and um yeah I
26:12mean I think both is probably the right answer. It's a neither one is so so expensive. Um and again I think we'll
26:18start seeing access to TVON in the seventh round as we get to the end of August and in beginning of September
26:24drafts. Let's go Tampa Bay backfield. Uh your preferred running back between Kenneth Gainwell and Bucky Irving. Bucky right around the running back 21 through
26:3424 range. And then you've got Gainwell as like that low-end RB3 range, sort of the upside guys with guys like Harvey
26:42and then also Jordan Mason sort of in his ambiguous backfield of his own in that range.
26:48>> Yeah, I really like Bucky here. Um I think Gainwell is fine where he goes. I think he's solid. I do think he's
26:54propped up a little bit from, you know, benefiting from like a really good fit with Aaron Rodgers last year and I still
27:00think he's going to be successful this year, but I kind of have him as like a break even player at his ADP. That's
27:05what the ETR ranks have. But we're quite a bit ahead of market on Bucky Irving.
27:09And there's a few reasons for that. One, you know, even though you've brought Gainwell in, and I think there's the thought that like, oh, well, he's going
27:16to catch passes and Bucky isn't. Now, I I think in some ways they'll play different positions at times and be utilized in different ways where
27:23Buckyy's still going to be pretty effective as a pass catcher in base.
27:26He's one of the better running backs and yards per run each of the last two seasons. So, I don't think like he's
27:31going anywhere in in that facet of the game. His efficiency cratered last year.
27:36He dealt with some injuries. We talked about the Tampa Bay O line last season dealing with injuries as well. So, I
27:42think there's going to be a big improvement there. Some of him having absolutely no goal line role last year and was all Shawn Tucker. I do think had
27:49at least a little bit to do with the shoulder injury that he was playing through and they just didn't see a
27:54reason to kind of force him into those positions when they had Tucker. There's so I I think Buckyy's going to get some
28:01goal line ro work back no matter what this season. There is some talk that the Bucks might end up cutting Shawn Tucker
28:07to save some money. Um and if that's the case then you really start to see where the goal line role maybe not only comes
28:14back but comes back in a big way. And then you're looking at, you know, a year three back who had a crazy efficient
28:20rookie season who's really dynamic in the pass game. And it's like, what are we doing allowing this player to fall into what the six early sixth, I think,
28:28is where he goes right now. Um, sometimes fifth. So, pretty in on Bucky.
28:32>> Yeah. I mean, I think that the the Tucker when I first heard it, I I dismissed it, but it feels like there's
28:38real legs there that he might go. And it sort of that sort of tells you the everything that you need to know about
28:43Tampa's uh confidence level in Bucky holding up this year. Uh Gainwell certainly would have even more contingent upside as well without Sean
28:51Tucker there. Uh so really an interesting situation.
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29:52Let's talk about Pittsburgh. Rico Dowel or Jaylen Warren?
29:58So, I'm on the Rico train here. Um, we do have Warren ranked a little bit ahead of Rico. I think part of that some ADP
30:06influence. Warren's going about a round and a half earlier than Rico, but you know, he's another one. If you're following the camp buzz, you know, it
30:16sounds like he's having a really good camp. I wouldn't be surprised if he's ahead of Warren in base carries and goal
30:20line work from the jump. uh you'd be surprised to know that he's caught as many balls as Jaylen Warren has the last
30:27two years, you know, given how we feel about these players now. He's doing it on a lot more snaps than Warren. So,
30:32it's not apples to apples comparison, but it's not like he's a zero in the past game. And I feel like he gets
30:37treated that way. Sometimes he's going to environment in Pittsburgh that's really good for expected fantasy points for the running back. So, you just
30:45talked about how Gainwell benefited from playing with Aaron Rogers. I think Rico will and I can't Theo I usually I would
30:52laugh at this type of argument as being like overly simplistic but I have made this argument a couple but I can't get
30:58out of my head that he's had two games last season on a really bad offense where he had 200 plus scrimmage yards
31:04and if you look at the list of players over the last five seasons who have multiple 200 plus yard scrimmage games
31:10it's like I think it's like Jonathan Tallyer Jir Gibbs it's like a few it's like four elite backs and Rico Dael
31:16who's done unlimited opportunities Now, that on its own, it's probably noise, but I feel like it's not baked in his cost at all. That like perhaps
31:24there's a bit more talent here than we're giving the player credit for. Um, that he was able to kind of have these
31:30big workloads, have enough efficiency to have these yardage type games that just don't happen all that frequently. So, for all those reasons, especially at
31:40cost, I think Rico is the much better pick in the Pittsburgh backfield. Yeah, I think that like the narrative has shifted to Jaylen Warren taking over the
31:48the Kenneth Gainwell role. He's got the big receiving upside and we know Warren was really good last year as a runner,
31:54but you've also got the Rico Dowel who had a thousand rushing yard season with Mike McCarthy and sort of like had that
32:00big ramp up over the second half of the year with McCarthy. So, they get the reunion. I think the Pittsburgh backfield is worth taking shots on in
32:07all formats because both those guys are pretty cheap. Uh, and it could be a good source of of fantasy football value.
32:13Pittsburgh's like an interesting team in general because no offensive skill position player costs you much of anything. And we have had confidence
32:20over the years in like Mike McCarthy offenses producing fantasy producers. So unless it's like the the worst Mike McCarthy offense we've ever seen by like
32:30a massive margin, one of these players is going to come through and become a real value for us. Um not maybe not a
32:36RB1, but you might get running back two production throughout the year from at least one of these players. Let's pivot over to the wide receiver position. Uh,
32:44one player you're very much in on as a flag plant for you is Lad McC having a big bounceback season looking way more
32:53like his rookie year than the disappointment we saw in year two.
32:57>> Yeah, and this fits for a few reasons.
33:00Looking at Lad individually, 2.74 yards per out run as a rookie. Like absolutely outstanding metrics.
33:08We had this weird situation where both him and Brian Thomas had these huge rookie seasons and disappointing sophomore years, which usually doesn't
33:15happen quite like that. I'm still trying to take the long view on these guys as prospects. And lad too, I felt that
33:21yards per route run number meant a lot for him as a player that in college had a huge yards per out run number two and
33:26we just didn't know how much validity to give it. And I guess I'm kind of giving it more stock in light of that rookie
33:33season. Last year things kind of went south for this offense over the course of the season in general. You know, you
33:39had Keenan to soaking up like high targets per out run. Um now now we get a new offensive core and Mike McDaniel
33:46that we're really excited about. I think Justin Herbert's one of the more ascending quarterbacks in the entire NFL. The offensive line should be in a
33:53better spot this year. Another offensive line that, you know, knock on wood is a little bit healthier than it was last
33:58season. and he just looks to me like a year three receiver as the type of player that could provide a huge profit. Like we
34:06don't have a ton of these players this year in my opinion that are in what I'd call like you know good talent moving to
34:13uncertain situations where it's hard to project and we could really see a huge leap. Ladon is one of them. Um and then
34:19from a more macro perspective, you were asking about like the one two turn running backs. you know, Lad goes at like three, four turn like he's like
34:26that's kind of a dream start if you do want to be running back heavy early to get a guy like Lad in round three is is
34:32really enticing to me.
34:34>> Lad Maki or Z Flowers?
34:37>> I'm on Lad there.
34:40>> Close.
34:40>> It's close though. Yeah, it's very close. Those those two are close. I think the pass volume a little bit more
34:46favorable for Lad. I do think Zay is an incredibly talented player and should be very good though. So, I'm not like down
34:52on Z.
34:53>> Let's talk about another wide receiver also going in that very similar range and one that I've talked to with a
34:59number of sharp people over the last like two weeks and the drum beats feel really good here, Garrett Wilson. And we
35:06had Frank Reich call him a bellcow, which was awesome to hear a coach use that term for wide receiver. But I had
35:12Chris Vicaro, who I know you've podcast casted with before on NFC Hall of Famer.
35:17Chris and I are both very in on Garrett Wilson and I know you are as well.
35:22>> Yeah, I almost wish the buzz would would die down a little bit. We were getting him at an incredible more like fourth
35:27round value for a while and uh and you can still sometimes get him there. Pairs really well with Lad at the 34. I mean
35:34that's the dream start. the RB RB at the one two turn for me and then he go followed up with Lad and Garrett would
35:38be absolute dream but I just don't get the cost as a guy that was going like early middle of the third round last
35:45year with Justin Fields at quarterback who we knew had questionable talent and would also tank the team's pass volume and in the games Garrett Wilson played
35:53with Fields um the Jets averaged around 24 pass attempts per game it's just pitifully low like that's going to come back in a huge way and if you look at
36:02Wilson's target earning ability on a per routeout run basis. It didn't go anywhere last year. Um so it's odd to me
36:10that he gets what is pretty clearly objectively to me an upgrade at quarterback certainly from a wide receiver fantasy production standpoint.
36:20A player kind of in the prime of his career. I know you know there was some health stuff last year but it you know
36:26when you put it all together it's just odd to me that the cost is cheaper than it was last year. I think this
36:32situation's objectively better now.
36:34>> Yeah. I mean, it's going to be a normal offense. We look at like the we were drafting him with with Justin Fields and
36:39people would make the argument about Justin Fields supporting like the big DJ Moore season, but now you're getting into just a normal offensive situation
36:47with Gino behind center. Um, and I think when we look at Garrett Wilson, there's been very few players over like even
36:53like the last 10 years that have been as consistent as him over a long period of time with like the target share numbers,
37:01the the raw target totals. I mean, there's an outside chance that Garrett Wilson could lead the NFL in targets this year and you're getting him, like
37:09you said, in the fourth round. And I think there's buzz, but he's not going to get pulled up past some of the there
37:16there's definitely like a point where he he won't get pulled up to. Um, so I feel like Wilson is going to remain a value
37:23even till we get uh to the very very end of drafts here. Uh, let's go uh headtohead here. Round two wide
37:30receivers. And you talked about the appeal of running back in round two, but you've also got this little group of wide receivers, AJ Brown, Drake London,
37:41Malik Neighbors, and let's throw Nico Collins in there because he goes directly behind those guys. Do you have a preferred wide receiver of this mix?
37:48And I guess we could throw a Lav in there too, Mike, if you want.
37:51>> Yeah, I mean, it's it's a good mix of wide receivers. I think you and again part of the reason why I'm okay going
37:56wide receiver early because I I do think the talents there. Um I'd say of these this group of five AJ Brown and Drake
38:04London are my favorite. I think you London's quarterback situation is odd.
38:08On one standpoint you're a little bit worried about the talent from Tua and Penn. On the other hand um you've got a
38:16solid backup quarterback no matter kind of what happens there. Um, so there's a little bit of floor and the targets share for him has just been so
38:23absolutely incredible that I do think that there's this really high-end ceiling. And then for AJ Brown, you the main concern is I believe is this his
38:33age 29 or age 30 season. Um, he's he's starting to get up there a little bit in age and the efficiency
38:41dropped off last year. And that's kind of Silva and I debated this on Man Versus Machine. That's where uh you know
38:47what Silva's argument was. It's going to be his age 29 season, but I kind of think the efficiency drop off last year,
38:54we shouldn't totally hold that against AJ Brown. The whole offense in general for Philadelphia had issues last season.
38:59And you get a guy that historically is one of the most efficient perarget wide receivers in the NFL. You send him to an
39:07offense where he's getting an upgrade at quarterback from fantasy production standpoint. like you're going to get much more pass volume in this offense
39:14than you did in Philadelphia. There's actually less target competition. Um, you know, he was dealing with Devonte Smith, Dallas Scout in in Philly. He's
39:22really not dealing with anybody in New England. And the team really brought him in. They want to make this work. Um,
39:27mentioned with Lab, there's not a ton of guys where you're getting this really good talent going into like somewhat new situations where there's this
39:33uncertainty that creates a lot more upside than people might capture, but AJ Brown is another one of those examples this year. It's such a good group of
39:41wide receivers and I think that's sort of like you know those teams that we talk about like structural advantages where in past years you've seen the 101
39:51and the 102 drafter uh sort of losing out to seasons like CD Lamb at the two turn, Saquon Barkley at the one two
39:59turn. Um, but it feels like this year if you get uh the opportunity for a Jir Gibbs or a Bejian Robinson and you're
40:07able to pair them with like two of these wide receivers, it feels like it could be an absolutely unbeatable start.
40:12We've, you know, you talk about AJ Brown and how appealing he is. Drake London, we have those incredible splits when it
40:19comes to uh the games Michael Pennock starts where it's like 20 point per game over 14 games. Uh, and then Chris is a
40:26guy who I've moved up into like my top 20. um way ahead on him. And then you've got Malik Neighbors who's Malik
40:32Neighbors. Um so and even Nico Collins gets a little bit of a boost with no Jaden Higgins. I know Lance Zerine has
40:39said he thinks it's about 15 more targets total coming Nico Collins way this year if he looks over like the full
40:45season. So really an appealing group of wide receivers and that's why this year I think is is so challenging because the
40:53second round is loaded. You made a case for multiple running backs there and then we've also got multiple wide receivers. So, I think it's it's a it's
40:59a really really uh fun year for fantasy and one where when we look back on the hit rates, there's probably going to be
41:05like one or two big standouts, but also a couple guys who are just going to hit in general. Uh let's pivot over to the
41:11tight end position.
41:13Assuming you've got the same big four that I do, Mike, where you've got the Bowowers, McBride, and then uh Warren and Lovelin in some some order. Um, when
41:24you look at that next group of tight ends, do you have an appealing player that you're looking to attack when you
41:30start getting into the Tucker Craft, Sam Laaporta, Kyle Pittz, George KD, Harold Fannon uh uh range, or is that a range
41:39that you're really not interested in?
41:42Yeah, I'm kind of torn on this one. Um, I feel like if you're in like a home league, I might bypass this range a
41:50little bit. just kind of make sure you're really stocked up on the skilled position players and I do like mentioned concade, Dallas, Jawan Johnson. I feel
41:59like there's some really good values later on. Uh if you're in a league or like FFPC is tight end premium where you
42:05do feel like you need a bit more juice and upside out of the tight end position. Um I probably like KD the most
42:12at cost in this range which is tough taking an olding player coming off an Achilles injury. Um, but ultimately I think if you can survive through the
42:21first half of this season that we've just seen the per game upside from KD so consistently more than than the other
42:28players here that uh at a cheaper cost than most of these guys. I think it makes a lot of sense. This San Francisco
42:35offense, you know, from the wide receiver position, we've got Ricky Pieraw already out for the year. Um, you know, the whole Brandon Iuk saga and whatnot.
42:45You've got kind of an aging Mike Evans there, a rookie in stribbling. And I think they could end up relying on
42:50George KD quite a bit. And I trust Shanahan so much. And I think Brock Party's really good at no matter what
42:56boosting this production for fantasy pass catchers that we could see a lot centralized on KD. Obviously CMC is going to get the lion share of
43:04everything, but we could see a bit more consistent workload from KD than we've seen in the past. And we know that he's
43:11got the really big play ability and the touchdown spike weeks in him.
43:16>> Yeah, KD's KD is really an interesting player. I've I I tried to fade him early on and now I've just been drafting him.
43:22I've like fully capitulated and in FFPC I've got a bunch of like late sixth round, early seventh round George KD exposure. Uh you know, if he's healthy
43:31and he's on the field, he's going to score points. He does it every single year. And now the San Francisco offense
43:38looks like it could be really consolidated. And also Mike Evans already a little bit banged up. You think about what that offense could look
43:44like if it was Stribbling and KD and CMC. It would get even more consolidated. Your favorite value of the big four tight ends. Uh we can put ADP
43:54into context here. In FFPC, you're looking at a early firstrounder for Brock per uh Brock Bowers. You've got Trey McBride who's sort of somewhere in
44:04that one two turn to midsec round value.
44:07And then you've got Coloulston Lovelin who goes somewhere in the midsec to late second. Then you got Tyler Warren who was moving up and up and up till he got
44:15slightly banged up. He was going like as sometimes a two-3 turn pick. Now he's settled in somewhere in the mid3 to late
44:22third. Are you into drafting one of the big four and who's your favorite value at cost?
44:31Yeah, for FFPC, I'm definitely in favor of drafting one of the big four if you can. I just think it buys you more
44:37flexibility throughout the draft. I think we've seen historically, at least at our ranks, for tight end premium, that the tax in ADP applied to the the
44:46top tight ends is less than the tax maybe applied to like mid-tier tight ends. And the top tier tight ends disproportionately value from the tight
44:55end premium scoring from a volume perspective. And the one there that I think disproportionately uh val benefits the most is Trey
45:03McBride. So on the FFPC specifically their ADP I think McBride if you can get a middle round too I just think that's
45:10an absolute steal. This is a guy that was going you know people talk about the regression with Jacobe Brassette of like
45:17Jacobe might not play the whole season the offense isn't going to be the same kind of like just throw it will offense
45:22it was last year when McBride had this huge year. I feel like, you know, people forget we were taking McBride at the
45:27one-two turn coming off a season with Kyler where we expected Kyler to be the starting quarterback last year. So, the argument that some of this stuff's going
45:35to regress for McBride rings a little hollow to me when we're having him be even cheaper than he was going into last
45:42season and he just had one of the better tight end seasons for tight end premium that, you know, we ever see. So the the
45:49target earning ability for him is just at such an elite level that when you're getting one and a half points per
45:56reception, I think the floor ceiling combination is is incredible still.
46:01>> Yeah. With with MCR, like I'm and I'm Mr. Brock Bowers, Coulson Lovelin, like I've talked about them all offseason long, but when I've gotten into like
46:09these actual FFPC main events, I have two Trey McBride second round exposures where, and we're not talking about like the 2011 either. They were talking about
46:18like the midsec. I was able to get Trey McBride. And it's like this is an inflection point where we're overthinking this one, I think, a little
46:26bit. And even if you love love love Coloulston Lovelin, you cannot deny that McBride, even if he regresses like 10%.
46:35He's still a massive value here in round two. The touchdowns could go down for sure, but in terms of the raw catch
46:42totals, at the end of the day, he's going to get 100 plus catches no matter who the quarterback is. And he's been
46:47one of the best target earners now um for a a two plus year sample size here in fantasy um at the tight end position
46:55that we've really ever seen. So, I I agree with you. I think he's a really fun one. That being said, Bowowers in
47:00round one makes sense. And I also think Loveland, if you get to the end of the second round, like you said,
47:06structurally, it gives you such a such a really strong pick there because you're not having to like make up for it with a
47:12with a number of tight ends and sort of having to hit that uh low-end tight end one uh room that hard. Uh so, really fun
47:20year. I think it's sort of the year of the tight end is sort of my big macro take. I think multiple tight ends could
47:24score at a very very high level. Let's go rapid fire with a couple of these last questions. Which rookie makes the
47:31biggest impact in fantasy football this season? Is it simple as Jeremiah Love or do you have another one? And we can use
47:38ADP cost in this argument as well, Mike.
47:42>> Uh I'll say Jarian Price. Well, you know, with ADB cost in the argument a little bit. um kind of reaching a point
47:48in the draft where the running back upside dies a bit down and you know with Charbanet injured to begin the year I
47:55think he'll have the runway to kind of earn job on it in a really efficient offense.
48:00>> Yeah, I think it's a really good good one. I've drafted Price in a fifth round of an FFPC main event. I drafted him at
48:06the 612 recently in an NFC online championship. Um I think he can score a ton of touchdowns. It's it's a very
48:13simple argument, but I think he fills that Kenneth Walker role. And Mike, we always see like when you get those late
48:19drafts that happen after the opener. I feel like after that Seattle New England game, I think there's a chance that Price gains like a round and a half of
48:26of draft capital just based on how good the usage is going to be in week one.
48:31Um, who are a couple of sleepers for you that you're looking to draft when you get into like the double digit rounds up
48:38until the endgame?
48:40>> Yeah, I'll go Marshon Lloyd. um someone that's burned me a couple of seasons with the inability to stay healthy, but
48:47I think it's a really good hand clear handcuff to Josh Jacobs who's got some off the- field stuff. He's got, you
48:53know, some health concerns and just kind of aging back in general. Lloyd's had a pretty good preseason. Scored a touchdown on some RB air yards. Saw Ben
49:00Gretch writing about that. So excited about him. Um as far as maybe wide receiver, Malachi Fields is someone that I've been looking
49:09at. Um, there's another rookie contributor where there's a real opportunity for targets behind Malik Neighbors in this offense and I think that he could earn those and
49:20end up being the number two target option on a team and you can get him almost for free in these 20 round
49:25drafts.
49:26>> How about a breakout offense? Don't answer with the Los Angeles Chargers because too many people do that one. But who's an offense that you think, and if
49:35it was LA, go ahead and Mike make the argument, but is there another offense besides the LA Chargers that you think
49:41could take a big step forward this year that you have a lot of confidence in and could potentially uh produce multiple
49:47ADP winners?
49:49>> I I'll give two. Um I'll give one the probably the second most popular answer, I'm guessing, is Chicago Bears. Um which
49:56is year two, Ben Johnson. Uh, you know, hopefully Caleb takes a big step forward. DJ Moore is not there so we
50:04could see more concentration on Adun Burton and Coloulston Loveland. So, I'm excited for that one. But we've hit on some Tampa Bay players, you know, in
50:13this one. And I think the costs on Baker Bucky are really good. Ibuka you got to pay for, but it might be worth it. I
50:22think that's an offense that could take, you know, they regressed a lot last year. I think they could normalize come back up in a big way uh with the health
50:30returning to this offensive line.
50:32>> Yeah, I I love Ibuka and he's, you know, expensive, but he's come down a lot with the toe injury. And I also think that
50:38Chris Godwin has a chance to be a really useful player for us. Um he's come up in ADP, but I think he could give us, you
50:46know, at least like 12 and a half points per game and with contingent upside if if it misses some time. And I'll say
50:52another team that you didn't mention that I think could take a big step forward this year, the Saints. Uh Kell Moore, everything the vibes feel pretty
51:00good. We don't like seeing Jordan Tyson missing, but even without Jordan Tyson, I think this team takes a step forward in year two of Kell Moore, Tyler Shuck,
51:09and the offensive line should be much improved versus some of the previous years in New Orleans. Let's end the show with this one, Mike. If you could know
51:17the final stats of any player in fantasy football, who would it be?
51:22All right. I guess I'll go with a player from one of these breakout offenses.
51:26I'll say Luther Burton. Um, that's the one that I'm struggling with most where I love the upside case that you can make
51:35narratively for him between the efficiency last season uh prospect that analytically people loved year two on this offense. No, DJ Moore. Feel like
51:46the cost is like okay now. It was getting really aggressive. I feel like because of the groin injury that we're we're honestly not too concerned about,
51:52it's come back down to where you can get him. But I wish I knew how aggressively to target him. That also has some funnel
51:59effects on like if you knew his stat line, you might know what to do with Caleb Williams a little bit more as
52:05well. You might, you know, know what to do a little bit more with with with Loveland and and a Dunay. So, uh, I'll
52:10say Luther Burden.
52:11>> That's a great answer. Really, really strong stuff today as always. Mike, uh, let everybody know what you have coming up and and what your cadence is,
52:18especially with the DFS stuff, uh, when we get close to the start of the season.
52:23>> Yeah. Um, we're just a couple weeks away from week one, which is kind of crazy.
52:27So, you can find my stuff at Establish to run. I'll have a lot of shows this season. I'm doing an inseason man versus
52:34machine with Silva on Thursdays. Uh, working on a projection show with the projections team in Levitan on Fridays.
52:42And then Saturday morning I have established a millie for anyone playing you know DraftKings FanDuel GPPS with Dink. Um and then Saturday night I do my
52:50lineup build show where I kind of go through our tools over at the solver and kind of use them to show you know just
52:57some ideas for different lineup constructions and whatnot for DFS. So those are the four main things I'll be doing for content in season and I'm
53:04pretty excited for it.
53:05>> Yeah, highly recommend all of Mike's work. It's really really good stuff. And if you're drafting this week, go check out rotowire.com. I'm doing ranking
53:12rankings updates every single day. You can get 35% off of any of our packages using the code Theo35. Same rankings I'm
53:20going to be using live in New York City when I draft in the NFC. Same rankings I'm going to be using in Vegas when I
53:27draft FFPC and NFC. And stick with us here on the podcast and on the YouTube feed. We're going to drop daily shows
53:33like this one all throughout the rest of the offseason. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.
