VideoFrom Matt Harmon
How Reception Perception Predicted Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Breakout Season
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Jul 20, 2026
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Mon, July 20, 2026
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0:00Okay, when you take a look at JSN, Jackson Smith-Njigba, I mean, obviously, incredible season. He was going crazy. Uh and big
0:11big shout out to you, man, cuz again, JSN was your guy. Like, you were like, "Okay, I'm all I'm all in on JSN."
0:17Meanwhile, I think the football community at large liked JSN, but wasn't sure about JSN.
0:26>> Look at the release. There's your separation.
0:29>> Great route.
0:29>> Stroud go gets by clean.
0:31>> That is unbelievable.
0:32>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:38>> As a matter of fact, that conversation we just had about Josh Downs, we we had that exact same damn conversation about
0:43Jackson [laughter] Smith-Njigba.
0:45They move around a lot of pieces, and he enters into an every-down role and has to play outside quite a bit. And shoot,
0:53man, he absolutely crushed it. Takeaways here on JSN.
0:57>> Yeah, I mean, that's a really fair point. And one of the reasons like I don't want to it seems crazy to limit
1:04like, "Oh, well, yeah, Josh Downs has only been a slot." Or, you know, Jayden Reed, these guys they've only been slot
1:08receivers, so they that doesn't really translate to outside. We just watched >> [laughter] >> JSN have that season. And and part of
1:15the reason yeah, I mean, I wrote this in the profile. Forgive me for, you know, reminding everybody that JSN at last
1:22year's Super Bowl was my bold prediction to lead the NFL in receiving yards. I get so much wrong. I I'm going to
1:27remind you at least that I got that one completely accurate as a bold [laughter] prediction. Um although as I always say,
1:32bold predictions that that's the that's the rule. Remember, if you get it wrong, >> Correct.
1:36>> that was a bold prediction.
1:37>> Doesn't matter, yeah.
1:37>> It was just a bold prediction, but if you get it right, you get the victory lap. But But anyways, yes, I get a lot
1:42of stuff wrong, but I did get that one right. And one of the reasons I was very confident in JSN last year was that I
1:47did feel that because he has been a strong man coverage beater in reception perception, and even honestly put in the box score in the second half of his
1:56rookie season against man coverage. He had like 4.56 yards per route in the second half of the season against man coverage. I thought that was enough to
2:05take the movement skills that you need and be able to play on the perimeter even though he was a guy that was a true
2:11slot only player.
2:13In college, his second season he was almost all from the slot as well when he was between DK Metcalf and Tyler
2:20Lockett.
2:21Um but you know, nevertheless, like I you look at the numbers from that season.
2:27Uh he was more used in the slot and more off ball in his second season in the NFL. 78% sampled snaps in the slot, 75% off ball
2:36rate. And that like completely completely flipped here in his uh third season in the NFL. He lined up outside on 73% of his sampled snaps. He was on
2:47the line of scrimmage for 66%.
2:50And that I think has to be like where we start praising JSN is because yeah, he did this all as not completely but a ton of work as a
3:00vertical X receiver which is a just a complete and direct flip of his role from the first few years in the NFL even
3:06when he was an awesome prospect out of Ohio State where he took 83% of his sampled snaps in the slot.
3:11>> He improved across the board. Um again, 78 excuse me, 78% success rate versus man, 82% versus zone. And these are
3:20improvements from 2024 where he he went from 75% to 78%, 79% uh to 80 about 83% versus zone. So,
3:30jumps there but the big big massive jumps as you were mentioning Matt, huge jump on the nine route. 45% success rate
3:40on nines in 2024, 63% success rate in 2025.
3:47Bro, that is that's insane. That's crazy. I mean, to see a nearly 20% increase on the nine route, which in my
3:56opinion is if you don't got it, you don't got it, man. But, if 45% is well below average, and then he goes to 63%, which is well
4:06above average.
4:07What an incredible improvement going long for JSN in 2025? It's crazy.
4:13>> It is crazy. And again, just can't be can't [clears throat] be said enough that he did all that while playing more
4:19outside on ball. Like it's not as oh, he's getting those like run up the seam in the slot. No, this guy was stacking,
4:26you know, press man coverage on the outside. And I mean, yeah, the nine route was super impressive. He was just crushing people on posts and deep in
4:32breakers all season long as well.
4:35Um, just just an incredible, incredible season from Jackson Smith-Njigba. 90th percentile, uh, cleared that number against both, uh, man and press
4:46coverage.
4:47>> [laughter] >> It's crazy like how good he was. Um, 80% success rate versus press, career best, obviously, despite transitioning to the
4:55outside. I think you saw that a ton when he was running those go routes. And he would make big like big catches along
5:01the sideline, as well. So, really did it in every way that you want from a top receiver. Um, I thought, you know, you
5:08bring up the nine route. To me, the area where he was just like uncoverable and and probably the best receiver in the NFL from a route running
5:17perspective, um, was just in that intermediate area. Uh, digs digs and out routes, like those breaking 90° routes.
5:27Uh, dig routes were 19.9% of his sampled routes, 7.9% uh, for the out route.
5:33Success rates, 86% on the dig, 88.2% on the out route. Both just absurdly absurdly high. And like if you guys
5:43want to like watch JSN, the one thing I'd say to watch is just his head when he's running routes. Like he's just he's
5:50always able to sell the out before he whips whips back in. I mean, just an incredible an incredible receiver in that way. Like
5:58the technique and the deception of his route running. He's the best liar in the NFL as a route runner is what I've been
6:03kind of saying for him. So, just all three levels of the route tree, the nine route for sure. Obviously was really
6:09really good at short and intermediate and underneath, but that 90° breaking routes on the out and the digs, that's where I thought he was just so special
6:18special last year. And Sam Darnold, your boy, as an oligarchy you should you should talk about this as well.
6:24He was so good at the throwing those routes, both the day inbreakers outbreakers. He was ripping them off play action in the straight dropback
6:33game as well. So, yeah, I just I thought that JSN had a really special season in that regard. That was probably the area
6:38where he was the best receiver in the NFL last year.
6:41Where he's best receiver in the NFL last year, period. Wins his offensive rookie of the year, the whole deal. Offensive player of the year.
6:46I messed it up just like the NFL did when they gave him the trophy. But yeah, he was >> [laughter] >> he was unbelievable in that in that
6:52regard. And yeah, especially the deception and the deception of his route running was really special.
6:58>> As Matt mentioned, he was an 80% slot player in 2024 and then he was an 80% outside player in 2025.
7:08It cannot be stated enough how much Jackson Smith-Njigba must have known his how much his role was going to change and how much he worked on that because
7:18his X receiver outside route running in 2024 was not good. Right? You're talking about a 45% success rate on the nine
7:29route. That's again well below league average. When we're talking about the curl route, right? So, you're going to sell vertical and come rip it right back
7:37to the to the quarterback. Okay, 69% success rate on the curl route. right?
7:43These are These are two routes that obviously are are incredible staples in an outside X receiver's role. Okay, now that's in 2024. Then you flip it to 2025
7:54and he's again just 64% success rate on the nine route, incredibly productive, 81% success rate on the curl route. You
8:04could not stop this guy. So, again, I would just say Yeah, his role changed. Yes, he got a lot of targets, but to me, I think what
8:13really stands out is I think JSN knew his role was going to change and he spent the off-season really working on
8:19improving those areas of his game and man, he hit it out the park, man. That was It really is incredible. Like for to to
8:27be a primarily inside receiver to go primarily outside and then work on your X receiver route tree, man, JSN crushed it and and and yeah, it's it's an
8:37incredibly impressive 2025 season he put on tape.
8:40>> Totally. Um I mean, I think we could say and I honestly I was kind of saying this at the at the beginning of last year because I
8:47think it was very obvious.
8:48>> [gasps] >> I think he graduated to the elite level last like last season. I think if you look at his comparisons in the top the his top
8:58four comparisons in his 2024 season last year so so excuse me, his second season in the NFL.
9:06The comparisons are Chris Godwin, Josh Downs, funny enough, Keenan Allen, >> [laughter] >> Okay.
9:12>> and Anthony Miller. People probably forgotten about Anthony Miller, but >> Oh, man.
9:16>> If that guy could have gotten out of his own way, he could have been a really really good NFL player. Was very much in
9:20that like Doug Baldwin type of mold. Anthony Miller, former Bears receiver. I think he's actually still kicking around the NFL, but yeah, he
9:28He he's he's he's screwed himself in Chicago. Another story for another time.
9:31But anyway, those were his top four comps after his second season Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Top four comps after his after his third season, the season we
9:40just watched.
9:42Tyreek Hill 2022 two Justin Jefferson seasons >> Wow.
9:47>> and 2019 Davante Adams. So like I think that's pretty All right. That's pretty elite stuff that JSN just put up.
9:54Obviously won offensive player of the year, won the Super Bowl, led the league in receiving yards, reception perception truly backs up that he made that jump to
10:03that elite truly truly elite level. He did avoid the all green route chart curse as well by checking in under the
10:11NFL average on one route, the flat route. So we we avoided that we avoided the Antonio Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Deontay Johnson all green route chart
10:21curse there for JSN. So I'm I'm being facetious, but yeah, pretty strong case.
10:26He was the best receiver in the NFL last year and I actually think that his route running style it's not it's
10:33very unique uh >> Sam Darnold had a quote >> uh last year where he talked about like he almost is he runs routes as if he's
10:39like on skates cuz he's just so smooth.
10:44But I think there are some truly some similarities to like Justin Jefferson in how he moves and uncovers. Jefferson's a little bit more
10:52fluid and and loose whereas I think JSN is a little more smooth and yeah, I love that like he's just running routes like
10:59he's on skates. That's how he's able to be so good in that digging out combination area.
11:04But I I also feel like I do think they're kind of similar. So obviously we know that Justin Jefferson just showed
11:09us last year nobody's quarterback proof, right? Nobody is is environment proof.
11:13Although he still had a thousand yards in a pretty perfect situation, but that's really the only question for JSN from like a production standpoint is
11:20just the environment and the situation.
11:22Clint Kubiak obviously moving on.
11:24Brian Flores coming in here unproven as a play caller of course, but I think they'll keep the same kind of I think they're going to keep
11:32the offense very, very, very similar.
11:34You know, it's another 49ers offshoot situation. So, usage and everything I think will be fine and and and pretty similar for JSN. I don't think that like
11:44I I think Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp and and my guy Torry Holt will all be like supporting actors and they're still
11:49going to try to throw the football to JSN like 30% of the time. Uh but we'll we'll obviously see if the efficiency
11:55can keep up with a new play caller.
11:57>> I'm going to go ahead and say it's not.
11:59>> [laughter] >> Okay.
12:01>> I don't I don't believe in Brian Schottenheimer at all.
12:04>> I mean, this is he's been on the offensive side and I know he was a as a player was on the offensive side, but
12:10like in terms of coaching, he's been on the offensive side of the football for five or five or six years. You know,
12:15there's just I'm like I'm sorry, that's just not enough time on task for the NFL. And and again, I know the playbook's going to be
12:23almost identical. I don't think that matters, you know? It's not the It's not the book. It's the caller. Right? So, and we've seen that time and time again.
12:34I mean, shoot, go go back to New Orleans, right? Sean Payton versus Pete Carmichael. It's the It's the exact same playbook. True.
12:40It's exactly But the offense looked horrible under Carmichael, right? So, I don't know. I don't have faith in it.
12:47>> I'm not I'm not defending Pete Carmichael, but you know, Drew Brees versus Derek Carr.
12:52>> Correct. [laughter] Correct. Also correct. I think that's super fair. I I But again, I just I think we've seen it time and time again.
13:00It's not the book, it's the caller, right? So, um and you know, the bones of the of the playbook is is obviously
13:08great, you know? It's the Shanahan system. It's going to be play action, a lot of dig routes, and you're going to
13:12rip them, you know, in the intermediate area of the field. Cool. I'm down with that, but sequencing matters, you know, play calling, getting your guys prepared
13:20week in and week out. That matters a lot.
13:23Um so, I don't know, man. I I think it's going to be I think the Seahawks will definitely see a downturn in offensive
13:29efficiency. It doesn't mean that Jackson Smith-Njigba is going to be a worse player. Just means that from an efficiency standpoint, probably won't be
13:38I mean, one of the most efficient players in the NFL period last year. I know I think we could fairly say that
13:45that number will probably come down.
13:47>> Right. Well, number one, I see what you're doing here. You're already setting up Brian Flores to be the scapegoat when Sam Darnold regresses. As
13:52an oligarch, I get it. You've got to have You've got to have a scapegoat.
13:55Totally Totally understand.
13:57>> I think his background is really interesting. Brian Flores, you mentioned he's like a former quarterback.
14:02He played quarterback in in high school.
14:04I believe he played a quarterback in in college as well.
14:08He was in But yeah, he was He's been kind of everywhere. I mean, he's like a special teams background and he's been a defensive coach. At Sacred
14:18Heart, he was actually in the Dolphins front office as the director of football research.
14:24>> Yeah, exactly.
14:25>> Like he he's had a and then he's been with San Francisco not just on the offensive side of the ball,
14:30but on San Francisco, yes, he was he was defensive quality control coach for one year. But then offensive quality control coach,
14:38tight ends, run game coordinator. George Kittle speaks highly of him. That doesn't mean he's going to be a great OC or anything, but I think he's enough of
14:43a background to bet on him as a last-ditch effort play caller, too, by the way. It's not like you had a a
14:49choice of options cuz Clint Kubiak left so late cuz he was Super Bowl, you know, winner. Like that's the way it goes.
14:56But I think keeping the terminology will be the same. But even regardless, man, like yeah, look, if JSN regresses next year from an efficiency standpoint,
15:05that's kind of how it goes, bro. Like he had 3.68 yards per route. He was targeted on 33.5% of his routes. Yeah, that's like if I
15:16mean, that's probably coming down. That's probably coming down because that is just That is the way it goes. I mean, shoot. If you
15:24just look since 2015, if you're looking at individual wide receiver seasons, I mean, that's up there that yards per route run 3.68.
15:34That's up there as third best since 2015.
15:39The Now, some players have managed to do it. I mean, the other if you're looking at the top five, it's JSN at three,
15:45>> Puka.
15:45>> The other Yes, Puka twice and Tyreek Hill twice.
15:48>> Yeah.
15:48>> can be it can be done. It can be done.
15:51You can repeat it, but it is obviously pretty unlikely. So, we will we will see what happens. It's the right system, but
15:59it is a different play caller where is obviously Tyreek Hill and those guys Yeah, they had the same play caller.
16:04Okay, so I mentioned Tyreek Hill and Puka Nacua. If you're looking at targets per route run, those are one, two, three, and then JSN
16:12is five since 2015. Can you guess who the fourth player is? You'll never guess it. Targets per route run >> Targets per route run.
16:20>> Not as He didn't play 16 games, only played nine games. It's a long It was I said it's since 2015. Spoiler alert,
16:27it's on the earlier side if not Oh.
16:31So, >> No, no, no. I got nothing here. Chris Godwin?
16:34>> Alshon Jeffery.
16:35>> [laughter] >> 2000 >> 2015 Bears.
16:39>> yeah, dude.
16:40>> Alshon Jeffery.
16:41>> Bro, I was such a big Alshon Jeffery fan, dude. Holy hell.
16:45>> He pops in a lot of the comps every now and again for guys who like don't separate, but are pretty good
16:51players. So, there >> [laughter] >> Correct.
16:53>> [gasps] >> Alshon I believe Alshon Jeffery has a 200-yard game in in his book if I'm not mistaken, dude. He had he went crazy
17:01this one game. I can't even remember what it was. I'm pretty sure he has a 200-yard game in the book though.
17:05>> Alshon Jeffery has like a big a massive season at one point in his career. I believe Yeah, it was the
17:12his second season in the NFL, 2013, 1,421 yards and seven touchdowns. And then the next year he had 85 catches, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns
17:22did Alshon Jeffery. So yeah, with the Bears early on his career he was he was he was good.
17:26>> Bro, he's got he's got two 200-yard games in the book. What? Wow. This guy's awesome, dude.
17:33>> Dude, yeah.
17:34>> 20 Both of them in 2013. Dude, he had two separate 200-yard games in 2013, dude.
17:40What the hell? That's incredible. He had 250 He had 249 receiving yards against Minnesota. And then 218 receiving yards [laughter]
17:52against New Orleans, man. Wow, that is so cool. That's crazy. I I knew he had This was under Marc Trestman?
18:00>> I was just going to say Marc Trestman.
18:01Yeah, that's that was the that was the guy at that point. Just cooking with him.
18:06>> Shout >> Jay Cutler. That was That was a little bit of a part of it, too.
18:11>> Yeah. That is crazy. [clears throat] You know how >> Chicago's never >> had a 4,000-yard passer.
18:16>> Mhm.
18:17>> And uh >> Yes, many times you have heard. In that particular year though, they did throw for 4,200 yards. It just happened to be
18:26that Cutler got hurt. Josh McCown had to come in in relief and he had nearly 2,000 yards, but shoot, they did as a
18:36composite of 4,200 uh passing yards that year. Man, they could have broke that curse there. That's crazy.
18:43>> They could have. Yeah, it's just but that's that's the thing with curses, man. You you can't break >> [laughter] >> Just uh just like thankfully to bring it
18:51all back around, the all green route chart curse uh JSN was able to avoid it by running one flat route a little worse than he
18:59could have, you know.
19:00>> [laughter] >> That is the funny That is the funny thing about the all green route chart thing, which you know, it's like it
19:08means truly truly means nothing. Other than it's he's cool. But it's just like it's not an Like I remember when when guys like I mean if as prospects
19:18and look, I love both these guys as prospects. Roman Wilson, Travis Hunter, people are like, "Well, yeah, but he had an all green route chart." It's like,
19:22"Yeah, that truly means nothing." Like it it's just like he runs [laughter] I would have liked him the exact same if
19:26he ran one route worse and went from green to yellow or all the way down to red. Who cares? It doesn't matter.
19:32So, obviously like I wouldn't be like, "Yeah, JSN almost had one of the best seasons we've ever seen, but unfortunately that one flat route."
19:39So, >> Luckily he avoided the curse of the all green route chart and the Bears are still cursed from a 4,000-yard
19:47passer until this year when Caleb Williams throws for 4,500 yards and everybody goes crazy in that offense. I love it. Fingers crossed.
19:54>> That's what I'm rooting for. I want to see Rome Odunze with 1,300. Let's go.
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