0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Learn more at staples.com.
0:03What, the last 72 hours crafting this week's Primer article live at FantasyPros.com?
0:08He's downtown, Derek Brown. D-Bro, how are the hands feeling after another 10k words this week?
0:13Have you put those biggies on ice yet? 10k?
0:15But you need to bump, those are starter numbers.
0:18Those are... Oh no! ...redimentary numbers there, Seth. 20k, baby!
0:21Oh my goodness! 15 to 20k every single week, man.
0:24Don't lowball me like that, man. Put respect. Oh man.
0:28No, but I'm doing good, man. Out of the Primer Cave, we were like an oil machine.
0:33I was just going through games, dude. So Wednesday when I got to it, wasn't that like crazy of a lift?
0:39Yeah. Got it live, been live on the site since early Thursday morning.
0:44I will, again, every single week this is a living, breathing document.
0:47So there are a lot of... After one game of football in the season, Seth, a lot of injury issues that I
0:54will be updating when we get to Friday, like practice reports and the Friday nights are always like my big update time.
1:01Okay. So look for the tweet, look for the updates.
1:04Definitely check back to the article on Saturday mornings because Friday night is when the real work gets put in too.
1:11That's why I love you, Derek, because most people are out, you know, having date night with the wife or out on the town.
1:18Not I. D-Bro is locked in getting those Primer updates for you.
1:22Not for 18 weeks, dude, not I. Yes, absolutely.
1:25We need to just like send you like a Friday night care package, you know, maybe, you know, a little ice bucket
1:32for the hands, maybe a little, you know, the things that go underneath your eyes and make the eye bags go away.
1:39I can write with like one of those red light masks.
1:42Yes, yes. I think that would be... It'll look like the man in the iron mask.
1:47Yeah. Yes, I love it. I love it. As noted on today's program, folks, we have our must start players for each
1:54position, quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.
1:57And before we get there, just wanted to give a big shout out to everyone tuning in either on the FantasyPros YouTube channel or the audio feed.
2:05We see you. We appreciate you. And we're trying to get to 300,000 subscribers by the end of this football season.
2:12We can only get there with your help. So please give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content.
2:19And don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you're new.
2:22And maybe if you do, we'll get a care package out to Derek sometime for a Friday night.
2:28A spectacular. Derek, let's go ahead though and jump right in to the quarterback position where you have a little revenge on your mind.
2:36Hey, I woke up feeling dangerous. And I think Baker Mayfield is going to do the same in week two, baby.
2:42He's got it. Baker is going to be absolutely motivated to crush his former team with the way that the tenure ended in Cleveland.
2:50And I don't want to walk too far down narrative street, but outside of the three fumbles, which capsized the bucks in
2:57week one for Baker Mayfield, he was actually really good man on a per drop back basis.
3:02Third highest passing success rate and catchable target rate.
3:05Who knew when Baker Mayfield is healthy, he looks like a good quarterback and the Browns were terrible in week one as a passing defense.
3:13Like they give the third most yards per attempt, highest pass rating, highest passing success rate.
3:18Yes, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are really good, but this bucks team could put some points on the board this week.
3:24And I think Mayfield could be a QB one.
3:27Yeah, he's someone that I think, you know, the fancy output does not really justify how good he was last week.
3:3423 of 28, 216 passing yards. He lost. He basically had a negative eight point play when he was going to get
3:41a rushing touchdown, fumbled it going across the goal line.
3:44And so realistically, I think Baker Mayfield is set up for a good point.
3:48We saw him scramble around five for 30. He looked healthy for once, which was really great to see a Mecca Buka finding him early.
3:56Chris Godwin on the check downs looking for Teddy Hurst deep.
3:59So yeah, I don't hate that play at all.
4:02Baker Mayfield certainly intriguing this week against the Cleveland Browns.
4:05I just got off the show with Andrew Erickson.
4:08He's laying the seven and a half. I think I'm going to tease that down to six and a half.
4:15But yeah, let's just keep laying. I'll lay it.
4:17I think I think the bucks are going to hand it to him this week.
4:22Another bad game from Sean Watson. Let's go. Is there any more motivation you need than having the opposing quarterback being the
4:29guy that was traded for for three first round picks paid the most money in NFL history guaranteed?
4:35And you got shipped off to Carolina because of that.
4:38I mean, come on, man. And they crushed him during he played hurt his final season there.
4:43And they absolutely just just crushed him for it.
4:46But it made it seem like he was a garbage quarterback to cast off not worth it.
4:51And he's like probably looking in the mirror like and I did all of this for what?
4:56Okay, I'm about to show y'all. Yeah, you know, it'd be crazy if this game was in Cleveland and like the crowd chanted Baker.
5:04Oh, dude, then just you know what I mean?
5:07It would happen. It would happen. It would. Yeah.
5:10Well, Derek, let's go to the NFC for your first running back play where you've got your eyes on a young gun out there.
5:17Yeah, man. Just give the freaking ball to Jadarian Price Seattle.
5:21It doesn't have to be more difficult than that.
5:23But I think like with this week, he's outside the top 20 top 24 running backs right now in ECR.
5:30I think this could be a big game for Jadarian Price.
5:33And what we saw out of his limited workload in week one was he was that explosive player.
5:39Seattle thought they were drafting had a 20 percent explosive run rate 20 percent missed tackle rate 2.9 yards up to contact per attempt.
5:46All of those are really strong metrics. And then you also put this up against an Arizona run defense that quietly give
5:53it the third most yards up to contact per attempt.
5:56Third highest missed tackle rate in week one. Like I know it wasn't a great game from the Chargers offense, but this Arizona defense is not amazing.
6:05Seattle should just feed Price this week. And I think that happens.
6:08And I think he's gonna have a really good game.
6:12Yeah, I mean last week the Seattle Seahawks were in a pretty negative game script for almost the entirety of it.
6:18Like they lost right off the rip Sam Darnold there in a 10-0 hole going early in that third quarter.
6:24And then it was really playing catch up and shout to Drew Locke for really getting it done out there.
6:31And you know, I thought Jadarian Price looked explosive.
6:34Did he not look like Kenneth Walker? Like, dude, he looks so good.
6:38I mean, that was the other thing. We all could see it at home.
6:42We so you know the coaches could see it the difference between when he takes a carry and when George Helani takes a carry.
6:49Everybody's just staring at their TV saying why why why why are we why are we doing this again?
6:55Why are we doing this at all? Like did no, no, just give the ball to Price more more please.
7:02I do have a soft spot for Helani cash me a huge like I think it was like a five unit ticket.
7:09I had him on him in the Super Bowl to get a couple rushing attempts, but he's not the best running back by any means.
7:16But you think maybe we also see a bounce back performance for one base all to and out there in the mile high city this week.
7:25So speaking of Kenneth Walker, he's going against the defense that Kenneth Walker just made him look like it.
7:31Oh, yeah, like ran all over them and now the Broncos get to face another explosive runner.
7:36I mean, basial to I know the stat line wasn't amazing.
7:39But again, you go to the deeper analytics week one 20% explosive run rate 33% missed tackle rate.
7:45So again, we're talking about a similar archetype to a Kenneth Walker that can create yards on his own create big plays
7:52break tackles and quietly that well not so quietly Denver's run defense in week one Seth 10th highest explosive run rate.
7:58They give the highest yards for per contact per attempt of any defense and the highest missed tackle rate of any defense of week one.
8:06I'm not saying the Broncos are going to wake up and they're automatically a horrible defense.
8:11But if you look at the archetype of runner that basial tootin is yeah, and what they did in week one against
8:18also we have to talk about a degraded Casey offensive line.
8:22Yeah, I think basial tootin can have a wonderful game.
8:25And again, if you want to stay away from what this Denver Broncos defense does the best in their secondary and their
8:32past events, you give the freaking ball to basial tootin.
8:35And you want to talk about positive game script as well, Seth.
8:38But if Bo Nix and company look like the offense they were in week one, tell me how the Jags don't roll in this game.
8:46And it's just more carries and more production for basial tootin.
8:50I do hope that Sean Payton is patient with Davis Webb on the sticks.
8:54I will say that said, though, I don't know.
8:57Sean Payton this week, I think is the time to keep fading them right and keep playing players against them because, you know, Davis.
9:04I think Davis Webb is going to be eventually one of the better play callers in the league, but I think it's
9:11going to take some time for him to get there.
9:14And so I just think it's a great spot for tootin.
9:18Searod, let's get them ripping on the ground. And like, no one needs to hear to start Parker Washington, but I think
9:25you play him in DFS this week. I think you play him in the betting markets, too, because they got to avoid
9:32Pat Sertan and Riley Moss on the outside. And we're going to get to another Jag here in a little bit of why I believe that.
9:40Yes, I'm with you. I'm with you. Okay. All right.
9:43Well, I like to hear that. Excited to hear more Jaguars lore coming from Derek Brown.
9:48But first, I did want to remind everyone that if you want a chance to win the ultimate symbol of fantasy glory,
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10:33Smack and Flex on your entire league. Derek, let's go to the wide receiver position.
10:37Who do you have for us this week? Oh, baby.
10:41Stefan Diggs. I think this game is going to be just points scored galore.
10:45And Stefan Diggs showed in week one that he's still not washed.
10:49He's still really good at football. Wide receiver 17, so him being outside the top 20, top 30 guys in ECR right
10:56now is kind of crazy to me. For a player that had a 26% target share, 26% first read share on a per-route basis, 2.2 yards per-route run.
11:04He got a red zone target, a deep target.
11:07So all of the usage was there in week one for Stefan Diggs to keep the train running in week two.
11:14And the Dallas secondary looked hopeless, man. They get the seventh most fantasy points per target to slot receivers in week one.
11:21I don't know how that changes after just one game.
11:24So Stefan Diggs, get him in lineups. Is there a chance that we look back at the end of the season and
11:31Stefan Diggs was actually the better commanders wide receiver to draft there?
11:34That caused, yeah. Because it feels like with how sketchy that line can be sometimes in Washington, having the checkdown option of
11:41Diggs feels very friendly to Jaden Daniels. And we saw it last week, too, with also Antonio Williams, right?
11:47Getting those checkdowns, getting that inside look. And Chiga Kwankwo, I don't know if you've had any practice reports on him this week.
11:54I doubt he plays. He left that game banged up, which stinks because I got a season-long ticket on him.
12:01I need him to reach 500 receiving yards. I'm going to be down a couple units there.
12:06But, yeah, I think Stefan Diggs, there's a shot that, you know, at the end of the day, he was the Washington
12:13commander you wanted on your fantasy team. And that starts here and continues here in Dallas in week number two.
12:19And just shout out for the Are They Playing tool, Chiga Kwankwo, right now.
12:24And this will be updated again as we get more practice reports.
12:27This tool becomes even more accurate, again, throughout the week.
12:30Right now, only a 53% chance to play. So I doubt he plays.
12:34Okay. Also, you have another younger player who we start to see some signs of life from in week one.
12:41Yeah, man. Matthew Golden. I wasn't a big believer this offseason.
12:44I was like, okay, I got to see it.
12:47But did we see it in week one? Absolutely, man.
12:50Guy got a 26% target share, 30.3% first read share.
12:53You look at the coverage matchup this week, and I think that's really what makes me lean in the direction of Matthew Golden.
13:00Okay. Looking at the Jets, they ran too high on 59% of their defensive snaps.
13:05Why does this matter? Because Matthew Golden, towards the end of the season, was one of their go-to options against too high coverage.
13:12And the splits with him versus single high, like we're talking about a 14% versus a 21% target per route run rate.
13:1921% versus too high. His yards per route run last year went from 1.34 to 1.6.
13:24So 1.6 isn't like an amazing metric, but it shows you the disparity of he's backup level to, okay, he's solid.
13:31And then taking a step in this passing game, and this year, I think Golden has a really, really strong game in week two.
13:38I think one of the things going in your direction that I might have not said a week ago, I think this
13:45Jets offense might be more competent than I thought.
13:48They might push the Packers in this one. They're only three and a half point underdogs, the Jets are.
13:54So, you know, I think, you know, I like Kenyon Sadiq this week.
13:58He's one of my favorite sleeper starts. I think he could be out there, you know, moving this Jets offense along with
14:05Brees Hall, Garrett Wilson kind of doing that dirty work.
14:08So don't hate to play there about Matthew Golden at all.
14:12I think he's had a really, really strong week one.
14:15Excited to see he can continue to stack impressive performances after impressive performances.
14:19Derek, let's go to the tight end position. Back down to the Mile High City where we got the boys from Duval County making a trek out there.
14:28Brenton Strange, baby. If you're hurting in tight end, like you got Bowers issues, you got other injury issues, you got guys
14:34that are just giving you goose eggs in week one.
14:38Or you got Kyle Pitts. You need to pick up Brenton Strange, and I think he's going to have a very productive week.
14:45Again, we want to talk about what are the areas of this Denver Broncos past defense that you want to stay away from?
14:52Okay, really the strength of it is their corners.
14:55Patrick Sertain, who will be shadowing Brian Thomas Jr., assuming that he is playing this week.
15:00If he isn't playing, then it's Jacoby Myers that's getting shut down.
15:04More targets are going to go in the direction of Parker Washington and Brenton Strange, and we've already seen this play out, Seth.
15:11They played last year, man. In week one, Brenton Strange got a 13% target share last year against this defense.
15:17Brenton Strange had a 19.4% target share, a 19% first reach share.
15:21In that game, he was the tight end nine for the week.
15:24So I think when we're looking at staying away from the Broncos' strengths, targets going in the direction of the better matchup
15:31to a hyper-efficient player, because Brenton Strange didn't get the target volume last year.
15:36Dude, he was top 12, top 15 in every pro-rout metric that I care about.
15:40If he gets the targets, he's going to produce again this week.
15:44And for a player that right now, oh, let me go look in ECR.
15:49He is tight end 18? No. Behind Dalton Schultz?
15:51Brenton Strange. Behind Jake Ferguson? Brenton Strange. Behind Kyle Pitts?
15:55Give me Brenton Strange. Behind Michael Mayer? Give me Brenton Strange.
15:58Harold Fannin? Give me Brenton Strange. Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point.
16:02I got a bench fan in a couple leagues, and there are some spots where I am tight end needy, and Strange
16:09is certainly on that short list of options. Really available in a ton of leagues right now.
16:14Coming in right now, ECR tight end 18. So yeah, I just think it's a great value for a guy who went
16:21up against the Broncos last year, five for 39 and a touchdown, and Parker Washington for good measures, just for your argument,
16:28six for 145 and one in that game. So I expect big days from both the former Penn State Nittany line, actually
16:35two former Penn State Nittany lines out there in Parker Washington and Brenton Strange.
16:39Man, I love it. The Jaguars is placating to your heart.
16:42I love it. And to your point, though, Brenton Strange, per Fantasy Pros, is only rostered in 26% of his leagues.
16:49He's out there in a lot of them. Yeah, I love it, man.
16:53I like the Jaguars to go over 21.5 points this week.
16:57That's one of my favorite gambles this week as well.
17:00So Derek Brown, great stuff for you, man. Get those fingers on some ice after 20K words this week once again.
17:06That's going to do it for us on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
17:12Comment down below your favorite Week 2 must-start players, and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel if you're new.
17:20For Derek Brown, I'm Seth Wolcott. Take care, y'all.
17:23Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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17:41Hey, it's Ashanti Plummer from Futter Round and Find Out.
17:44Coming out of the draft, it's been a special time for us here at Futter Round.
17:49I want to thank everyone from the fans to the sponsors, especially Geico.
17:53Not just for supporting AZ, but for showing up where it matters, like the business of Women's Sports Summit.
17:59That kind of thing really moves the needle. And now that AZ's starting a new life in Dallas, we don't know what
18:06next season is going to bring, but we know that we're all on the same team.
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