Eagles In TROUBLE, 49ers Elite & Packers Finished? NFL Week 4 Reactions (Ep. 2244)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 22 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 7, 2026
Published
Wed, October 7, 2026
43
Player insights
36
Players mentioned
Topics
Drake MayeC.J. StroudJonathan TaylorJordan LoveNico CollinsSaquon BarkleyBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersBrock PurdyCaleb WilliamsChase BrownD.J. MooreD'Andre SwiftDallas Goedert
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
PositiveValue106:54
The Raiders are in desperate need of a vertical wide receiver threat to open up their offense and improve their run game; the source suggests the Raiders should trade for Brian Thomas Jr. to provide that missing element.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
NegativeUsage100:43
Brock Bowers is functioning primarily as a wide receiver for the Raiders, frequently running hitch routes and excelling against zone coverage. His long-term fantasy outlook remains a question mark when facing teams that can play man coverage and effectively neutralize him.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveProjection50:08
Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level for the 49ers, who have yet to allow a sack this season. The source views him as a key component of the best team in football.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection25:02
C.J. Stroud had an elite outing in Week 4, posting a 126.7 passer rating and 0.45 EPA per dropback, aided significantly by the return of Nico Collins.
Insight pagePositiveUsage38:37
C.J. Stroud has been effective at avoiding turnovers, having not thrown an interception since Week 1, which is a positive outlier compared to other struggling offenses.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeProjection52:07
The source mentions Caleb Williams in the context of the Bears' defensive performance, noting the team's outlook once he returns.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveUsage6:41
Despite limited rushing attempts, Chase Brown is a three-down back who remains involved in the passing game, recording 11 catches out of the backfield in his last outing.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeInjury2:28
DJ Moore re-aggravated an AC joint shoulder issue during the game against the Bills.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
NegativeUsage3:34
D'Andre Swift is noted for having 'butterfingers' and is a concern for fantasy managers.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
NegativeInjury42:04
Dallas Goedert is currently injured, contributing to the Eagles' offensive woes.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeUsage33:53
There is a risk that Dalton Schultz's routes could be cut if the Texans' coaching staff decides to shuffle personnel due to offensive struggles.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeProjection44:22
The source is highly critical of Daniel Jones, describing him as limited and immobile, comparing his movement to a 'plastic mannequin.' He is noted as having the third-worst EPA per dropback this season, and the source questions why the team invested in him coming off an Achilles injury.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveProjection21:57
Derrick Henry is a consistent producer who is expected to score a touchdown every week.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
NegativeInjury42:04
DeVonta Smith is currently injured, which limits the Eagles' playmaking ability.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveBreakout56:22
Drake Maye showed significant improvement in Week 4, posting 269 passing yards, three touchdowns, and 54 rushing yards. While he still had turnover issues, his efficiency and use of his legs were major positives for the Patriots.
Insight pagePositiveProjection93:48
Drake Maye showed significant improvement in Week 4, looking more efficient and utilizing his legs with 54 rushing yards; he finished 22-37 for 269 yards and three touchdowns. The offense's increased use of motion (75.3%) and play action (33.7%) helped, though he still struggles with pressing for big plays rather than taking underneath options.
Insight pageNegativeInjury98:17
There is a legitimate concern regarding a shoulder injury for Drake Maye. Film analysis shows him throwing off-platform and relying solely on his arm, leading to a noticeable lack of zip on his passes, which suggests the injury is more than just speculation.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
NegativeInjury2:20
Jamar Chase is dealing with a concussion, which typically results in missing at least one game. The Bengals have a bye in Week 6, so the team may err on the side of caution.
Insight pageJalen Nailor
PositiveUsage28:22
Jalen Nailor saw 60% of snaps in Week 4, showing his potential when given playing time, though his usage has been inconsistent.
Insight pageJalen Royals
PositiveBreakout8:56
Jalen Royals saw a significant snap increase following Rasheed Rice's injury and is viewed as a potential replacement for the low-ADOT role in the Chiefs' offense.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveUsage43:59
The source credits Jonathan Taylor as the sole reason the Colts are 2-2, noting that he has single-handedly willed the team to victories through his individual performance.
Insight pageNegativeUsage108:28
Jonathan Taylor's production splits are significantly worse when he lacks a vertical threat like Alec Pierce on the field, as defenses can key in on him more easily when players like Laquon Treadwell are the primary receivers.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection40:30
The source suggests Jordan Love is the Packers' only 'superpower' and must carry the team to keep them in contention. While his performance has been inconsistent, he has the ability to go on hot streaks, and the source believes he is good enough to right the ship, though they stop short of guaranteeing it.
Insight pagePositiveProjection57:01
Jordan Love is considered one of the better quarterbacks the Bears' defense has faced this season.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeUsage12:07
Kenneth Walker has been heavily utilized, but the Chiefs have managed his workload, giving him 22 touches in his last game, likely in anticipation of their Week 5 bye.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury1:42
Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury on the final play of the first half against the Titans. While some reports suggested day-to-day status, the source is operating as if he will miss at least one week.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeInjury55:15
Mike Evans is playing through significant injuries, appearing to grimace after every catch, yet he remains highly productive, leading the team in receiving with five catches for over 70 yards in his last outing.
Insight pageMike Gesicki
PositiveRole7:08
Mike Gesicki is expected to step up in the Bengals' passing attack while receivers are missing time.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveRole25:12
Nico Collins is a major boost to the Texans' offense, and his presence significantly improves the team's overall performance.
Insight pagePositiveUsage33:44
The Texans' offense is significantly worse when Nico Collins is not on the field, as evidenced by their poor performance in games he missed.
Insight pageParker Washington
NegativeUsage123:59
Parker Washington's usage was minimal in the recent game, recording only one catch for seven yards, though the team's overall offensive success made his lack of production irrelevant to the outcome.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeInjury2:32
Rasheed Rice left his game with a hamstring injury. The Chiefs have a bye in Week 5, providing him time to heal.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeInjury2:24
Saquon Barkley left the game against the Eagles with a hamstring injury.
Insight pageNegativeInjury42:04
Saquon Barkley is currently dealing with an injury, which is a major concern for the Eagles' struggling offense.
Insight pageTee Higgins
NegativeInjury2:34
Tee Higgins is dealing with a groin issue. Given the Bengals' upcoming bye in Week 6, the team is expected to be cautious with his return.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveUsage11:37
Travis Kelce is expected to see an obvious target bump in the Chiefs' offense due to the injuries to the wide receiver room.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection115:08
Trevor Lawrence has seen his career revitalized under head coach Liam Cohen, contributing to the Jaguars being considered one of the top two teams in the AFC.
Insight pageTyler Huntley
NegativeProjection19:59
Tyler Huntley is a capable backup who can manage the offense. While not Lamar Jackson, he should perform better with a full week of practice.
Insight pageTyreek Hill
PositiveValue9:03
Rumors suggest Tyreek Hill may sign with the Chiefs. He is currently free across most fantasy leagues and is worth adding to see how the situation develops.
Insight pageTyson Bagent
NegativeDepth Chart63:21
Tyson Bagent has been announced as the starting quarterback for the Bears in their upcoming game against the Packers.
Insight pageWill Shipley
NegativeValue13:23
Will Shipley is a potential waiver wire addition for the Eagles' backfield given the team's current injury situation.
Insight pageXavier Hutchinson
NegativeDepth Chart33:46
The source expresses concern that the Texans might revert to using Xavier Hutchinson in a larger role if the offense continues to struggle, which would negatively impact other pass-catchers.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection15:06
Zay Flowers has been elite across all coverage types and route metrics. When on the field with Lamar Jackson, he is averaging 178 yards per game. He remains a focal point of the Ravens' offense even if Lamar misses time.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Is there an epidemic against literature?
0:04More specifically, Black literature. I'm Jacquees Peace Thomas and on this season of the Black Lit Podcast, we're outside asking why.
0:10They don't want a whole bunch of little Ella Bakers, Malcolm X's, and Martin Luther King's running around.
0:15And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, we need to know where you came from.
0:20And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
0:25Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:32Hello everybody, welcome into the tailgate. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown.
0:36We are reacting to week four of the NFL season.
0:39That's right folks, we are a month in so far.
0:42Like every other week guys, we're going to start things off with some news and notes talking about all of the injuries
0:48that happened because that has not slowed down whatsoever.
0:51As I've been doing, I'll sort of quickly run through the list here and then we can kind of pick and choose
0:57where we want to highlight these because there's quite simply not enough time to go through all of them.
1:02Lamar Jackson, ankle injury that happened in the final play of the first half in their game against the Titans.
1:08He looked awesome against them before that injury. He was seen leaving the stadium in a boot.
1:13Rappaport said they were thinking day-to-day. Florio said more like week-to-week.
1:16Jesse Minter said that there was discussions about bringing him back into the game yesterday.
1:20I think that was sort of misinterpreted by some people online as they considered doing it.
1:25I think having a good discussion could be as simple as like, is he capable of coming back or not?
1:30So I'm not putting too much stock in that.
1:33I'm kind of operating as if he's going to miss a week here, but we'll see.
1:37That's obviously the biggest name in terms of quarterbacks.
1:40Jamar Chase, concussion. We know with those, that often means missing at least one game.
1:44But we'll see what happens there. Saquon Barkley, hamstring, left the game for the Eagles.
1:48DJ Moore re-aggravated that AC joint shoulder issue he had for the Bills.
1:52Rasheed Rice left his game with the hamstring. Tee Higgins, another one with the Bengals receivers, had the groin issue.
1:58Taequann Thornton, obviously a very, very, very bad ankle injury that was tough to watch.
2:02You know, we're thinking about him, hoping for the best there.
2:05Ladd McConkie re-aggravating a foot injury that he had during the week.
2:09And then Kyle Madungai had an awesome game, but he did have a thumb injury in there as well.
2:14And then, as Debra added to our sheet, also DeAndre Swift, parentheses, butterfingers.
2:18So that's the other one to be thinking about here.
2:21Debra, I'll start with you. What, I mean, obviously, these are some of the biggest names in fantasy and in the NFL.
2:27The first three names are listed were Lamar, Jamar Chase, and Saquon Barkley.
2:30Where do you want to start with the injuries this week?
2:34What do the Cincinnati Bengals do in week five when they don't have their star receivers and they do not have the
2:40ability to run the ball and they don't even care about trying to run the ball?
2:44Because last week's game was close. You'd swear from the box score and Joe Burrow throwing the ball over 50 freaking times
2:51that they were getting blasted like they were losing like 23 to 2 or 3 or it's 30 to 6 or something insane.
2:57And yet, it's 13 to 3 at halftime. Chase Brown doesn't ever get the ball.
3:01They don't even attempt to run the ball. Well, guess what, boys?
3:05Better get familiar with running the ball this week.
3:07I don't think Joe Burrow's going to throw it 50 freaking times to Mitchell Tinsley.
3:12Well, do you know who they're playing this week?
3:14I know exactly who they're playing this week. They might not need Chase and Higgins to do just fine against the Dolphins.
3:20I don't know, man. The Dolphins have been quite competitive the last two weeks.
3:24I mean, Chris Bell's long touchdown doesn't get called back.
3:27I don't know. I don't know. I think that says more about the Vikings offense, honestly.
3:32Erickson, what do you think about the Bengals? Let's say they have to go into this game in week five without Chase and Higgins.
3:39I think it just means that there's value on the Bengals because I think that Joe Burrow without Jamar Chase, without Tee
3:45Higgins, is still eons better than whatever we saw from Kyler Murray in this past game.
3:49Yeah, yeah. So that's why I'm not overly concerned.
3:52The Jacksonville Jaguars are a pass funnel defense. I don't think that the Bengals were game planning to, OK, we're going to run the ball over Jacksonville.
4:00I mean, that's why I bet the under on Chase Brown rushing attempts, which wasn't he had more catches than rushing attempts
4:06in this game because he had 11 catches out of the backfield.
4:09So Chase Brown's still a three down, or in terms of his three down skill set.
4:14So he's still going to be involved. He's still explosive and can rip off big plays.
4:18And it's just next man up for the Bengals, right?
4:21We'll see if they get Kobe Young back. He missed this past game.
4:25It's possible he comes back and returns after missing one week.
4:28And you have tight ends. Mike Kisecki, like he steps up a lot of time when these receivers miss time.
4:34So it probably won't be pretty. But I mean, that Miami Dolphins secondary is so bad.
4:38But guys are running wide open against them. And I think the Bengals can take advantage of it.
4:43The other team that has, you know, not only is a contender, but had multiple receiver injuries was the Chiefs.
4:49Obviously, Thornton is going to be out for the season with the ankle.
4:53Rasheed Rice, the hamstring, not sure how much time he's going to miss yet, unless you guys have seen an update there.
4:59But I mean, they can't start giving more carries to Kenneth Walker Erickson.
5:03They're already giving him as many as he can possibly handle.
5:06So what do you think the Chiefs are going to do if they're down two receivers going into?
5:11Actually, you know what? Never mind. I just totally forgot.
5:14They have the bye next week. So they do get a week on the Rasheed Rice side to see how he heals
5:20in his back in a couple of weeks. But if two weeks from now, he's not back yet, what do you think about the Chiefs offense?
5:27Well, they do have rookie Cyrus Allen, who flashed a lot during training camp.
5:31So it's possible that he gets a little bit more run as one of the starting receivers.
5:36Jalen Royals got the biggest bump in this past week with Rasheed Rice injured after six snaps played due to that hamstring injury.
5:43And all the rumblings are that Terry Cale is going to sign with the team in the next coming days.
5:48And is it not obviously the Chiefs? Like what other team would he sign with unless he's trying to like, I'm the cheetah.
5:55I'm going to become a Bengal. That's exactly what I want to do.
5:59Reunited with Mike McDaniel for the Chargers. I mean, they can't get any worse, right?
6:03So I think it's pretty clear that he'll be signing with the Chiefs at some point.
6:07And that's obviously going to be another receiver out to that room.
6:11You obviously know as Mahomes knows his system. Don't know what kind of shape Terry Kill is in, but I'm kind of
6:17sick of betting against guys coming back from these season ending injuries when it seems like more often than not guys are coming back quicker, faster, stronger.
6:25And the fact that he's free across the league in terms of fantasy, it's worth just kind of picking up to kind
6:31of see, hey, how is the things kind of shake out here?
6:34Especially with Taequann Thornton's injury looking like, I mean, he's going to be out indefinitely.
6:39For sure. By the way, the Bengals' bye is in week six.
6:42So I would imagine like they are going to err on the side of caution with both Chase and Higgins because they have a bye the following week.
6:50And they're playing the Dolphins this week. So they basically have two byes.
6:54Debro, any thoughts on the Chiefs offense with these guys going down?
6:57I mean, it's a mess, but also, I mean, we're going to see an obvious target bump for Travis Kelsey.
7:03But to Erickson's point, they got guys on the roster that could possibly step up.
7:07Like, I think Jalen Royals can play the Rasheed Rice role.
7:10I fully believe that. So if he's like putting that low ADOT role, you know, I'm not going to say that he's going to get 30% target share.
7:18But I think you're going to see them lean more on Travis Kelsey.
7:22Maybe we see more Emma Johnson. I agree with that, especially because he got zero carries this last game.
7:27But I think Chiefs loaded up Ken Walker to start the year because they knew they had a week five bye week.
7:33Like, I think that really does matter in terms of they knew Mahomes was coming off of his ACL injury.
7:39They knew Ken Walker was going to be at his peak to start the year and they had an early bye week.
7:45So they've already backed off the workload a little bit.
7:48Like, he only got 22 touches last night. So it's not like he was like at 30 or anything like that.
7:54You know what I mean? Just just saying. Saying.
7:57With Saquon, do you guys have any interest in trying to approach this backfield on the fantasy side in waivers this week?
8:03I mean, because Bigsby got banged up too, didn't he?
8:06Adding Will Shipley. Yeah. Take on the Jags. I mean, this team is just struggling so much.
8:11They gave up 10 rushing yards to chase Brown last week.
8:14No. I mean, he could catch a bunch of dump off passes for Jalen Hurts because that's kind of what the Eagles offense is maybe going to become.
8:22Who knows? Because who knows who's even going to be out there for the Eagles catching passes?
8:26It's going to be Lemon, Wicks, Will Shipley against the Jags in London.
8:30Good Lord. Yeah. Wolf. Yeah. I don't think we need to spend time on like DJ Moore.
8:35That offense is still going to be good. Lad McConkie.
8:38That offense is still going to be bad. Oh, we'll talk about the Chargers later.
8:42Same with the Eagles. They'll come up later. They're back in the stock down section of the show.
8:47Yeah. I do want to take a second on Lamar's ankle though.
8:51Because obviously just in terms of like impact on the league, this is probably the actual biggest injury of the week.
8:57If there is any time missed because of how important he is an MVP quarterback.
9:01And also how important he is for your, your beloved and my beloved now to Zay Flowers.
9:06You know, he went from another utterly dominant first half to not doing anything because of an injury in the second half.
9:12This time it was Lamar's injury, not his. He actually did leave the game for a couple of plays when his book got stepped on Zay.
9:19He came back in though. So that's not a long-term concern.
9:22The numbers for Zay Flowers. If you only include the quarters in which he and Lamar Jackson have both been on the field this season.
9:30Not even accounting for the fact that he was running limited plays in the Rio game.
9:34Like just pretending that was a normal full workload from him, which of course wasn't.
9:38He's averaging 178 yards a game this season. If you just take a, you know, play out the time he's been on the field with Lamar Jackson.
9:46It is unbelievable how much he is breaking defenses and breaking fantasy and breaking, you know, records in terms of efficiency when
9:52he has been on the field, D bro. Zay Flowers is good.
9:56Who knew? Who knew, Worm? Who knew? Listen, I knew it was good.
9:59I didn't know he was this. This is like, he's not as good a player as JSN, but this is like very
10:06similar to me of last year where it's like, oh, the new play caller came in and just unlocked everything and changed the way we view this guy.
10:14Again, JSN is the better receiver, but it is very reminiscent of that.
10:17Like Declan Doyle just comes in the way Clint Kubiak did last year.
10:21And it's just like, oh, this is how you could have been using him the whole time.
10:26This guy's a stud. So the only thing I'll push back about all of that is right after he signed the contract, I tweeted it out.
10:33And I've looked at basically every single per route metric versus every single coverage that you could pull up.
10:39And Zay Flowers is elite or been elite versus all of it.
10:42Like man coverage, zone, route win rate, downfield, short.
10:44Like he's been amazing. So my only pushback would have been like, he's kind of been that guy for the last few years.
10:51And the Ravens just did not lean on him as being that guy.
10:55But he's been that guy. Statistically, yes. You don't feel like watching him, it looks different.
10:59I feel like it just looks like he's playing on easy mode right now.
11:03I just look like they finally leaned into running their passing attack through him.
11:07Like fully through him is where I'm at. Erickson, are you going to be knocking down Zay at all in your rankings for week five if Lamar's out?
11:15I mean, if Lamar doesn't play, I think that you have to adjust your expectations for what Zay Flowers are going to do.
11:22But from like a season long perspective, I still am very high on Zay Flowers.
11:26We talk about this all the time, right? Process always says when an elite wide receiver loses his quarterback, you go out and trade for them in fantasy.
11:34Because more often than not, it works out. Sometimes it doesn't, like Jefferson last year.
11:38But a lot of times it works out like Jamar Chase last year when he lost Joe Burrow and he ended up
11:44just being an absolute monster because he got 20 targets a game.
11:48So Zay Flowers still will be the focal point of the Ravens.
11:51He's passing attack. He is so elite after the catch that kind of mitigates any type of quality in terms of the targets to him from Tyler Huntley.
11:59And it's not like Tyler Huntley. It's like a bad backboard.
12:02Tyler is a totally, totally good service. Right? Backup, yes.
12:05It's a new offense too. So we'll see. Maybe Declan Doyle can help unlock a little bit more of Tyler Huntley.
12:11I mean, right now when we're looking at the line, it's Ravens laying three points playing at the Atlanta Falcons.
12:17That line to me suggests that Lamar Jackson's not playing because we would probably all agree that if Lamar Jackson was playing,
12:23it would be more than three points. That line was six before the games on Sunday.
12:28So it's obviously been halved by the idea of Lamar not being there.
12:31And obviously the total's gone way down. The thing with Huntley too, I'll say, is like I know they didn't score in
12:37the second half yesterday with him playing. That was like he came in cold.
12:41He said he didn't even know he was going to be starting the second half until like a minute or two before kickoff of the second half.
12:49Like they kind of threw it on him. And he also like the task was simple.
12:54It was don't lose to the Titans. You're up by like three scores.
12:57You're playing the Titans. It was kind of a weather-filled game too.
13:01It was rainy and misty. Like just don't make the big mistake.
13:04And he didn't. And I'm not saying he's going to be Lamar Jackson.
13:08Of course he's not. But he can be better than he showed in the second half with a week of practice and
13:14them knowing they need to score more. He's a perfectly capable backup.
13:17My projection for Derrick Henry's line was almost spot on too, Worm.
13:21Oh, was it? Yeah, I didn't guess that. Yeah, I didn't guess that.
13:25Yes. Nice. Well done. Yeah, he just, you know, he's going to get you that touchdown every week.
13:30It's just going to happen. Inevitable. Before we get to the next segment, if you want a chance to win one of
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13:57To enter, all you need to do is subscribe to the Tailgate YouTube channel right now.
14:02Drop a comment below on any of our videos.
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14:08So make sure you turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this epic prize.
14:13All right, guys, let's get into our conclusion segment, sort of what we learned this week.
14:18Erickson, we'll start with you. Houston, we have a problem.
14:21Sitting at 0-4, can this team rally and get back into the postseason?
14:24Well, according to NextGenStats, teams that are 0-4, we have one team that has gone to the playoffs since 1992, the 1992 San Diego Chargers.
14:31Now, we talked about this, I think, last week when the Texans fell to 0-3, that, okay, well, they did this before,
14:38and they were able to bounce back and make it to the playoffs.
14:41I think the big difference between this Texans team compared to last year is the defense is not nearly as good.
14:47And it's a very hard bar to meet because of how elite and suffocating they were.
14:52And we tend to see this from year to year where elite defenses are more likely to aggress to the mean than elite offenses are.
14:59So, despite the fact that we got an amazing outing from C.J.
15:02Stroud last week, 126.7 pass rating, that was the sixth highest of his career, 0.45 EPA per drop back, that was the
15:09fifth highest he's ever had in his career. So, getting Nico Collins back was so clearly a major boost that this team
15:15was missing, and obviously contributed to the fact that they are an 0-4 team.
15:19They have not won a game yet. And I don't think it's a scenario where this Texans team being 0-4 is reflective
15:25of how talented they are on both sides of the football, especially when Nico Collins is healthy.
15:30I think they are better than an 0-4 team, but they are still 0-4.
15:34And digging out of this type of hole can be really, really tough and really challenging.
15:38You have two road divisional matchups coming up, playing at the Titans, should be a W, but then you're playing at Jacksonville in London.
15:45Then you get the New York Giants at home, and then you get your week 8 bye week.
15:50So, if they can upset the Jaguars, maybe go on a 3-0, enter their bye week at 3-4, maybe that's a case
15:56where their defense can play a little bit better, and they can kind of get a complete game going.
16:02Because right now the Texans don't feel like a complete team.
16:05They feel like either their defense plays really well and their offense lets them down, or their offense plays really well and their defense lets them down.
16:13Like, they haven't had this full cohesive unit, and when I look at the team that's in first place in that division,
16:19the Jacksonville Jaguars, to me, are a complete team.
16:21Where they're finding ways to win, whether it's on offense, whether it's on defense.
16:25The Texans are the opposite. Where I feel like one side of their ball or one of their units is letting them down more often than not.
16:33I think there's a lot of injuries on the defense that have kind of been flying under the radar.
16:39Aziz Alshier didn't play last week. They have Henry Toa Toa.
16:42He did not play. He's also on injured reserve.
16:44Mario Edwards was placed on injured reserve. So, I think you're starting to see some holes in their defense, despite the fact
16:50how good Will Anderson is rushing the passer. Like, he's a favorite probably for defensive player of the year.
16:56This team is still 0-4. So, they can't run the ball.
16:59That's another big issue. Fifth highest in pass rate this season.
17:02And although it was nice to see Jalen Noel finally get like 60% of the snaps, and you see what he can
17:08do when he just plays more, they did this in week two.
17:12And they put him back in the box in week three.
17:15And it's super, super frustrating that they're not unleashing their best players.
17:18So, that's kind of how I feel about the Texans, where I don't think that they are an 0-4 team, but they are an 0-4 team.
17:26And I don't know if they're going to have the schedule work in their favor and have the runout that they had
17:32last year to really dig out of this hole.
17:34I mean, the schedule lightens up. Outside of the Jags games and then the game against the Ravens, those are the three toughest games remaining on the schedule.
17:42The rest of it is much easier than what their runout has been to start the season.
17:47I was just looking at the schedule as you were talking, Erickson.
17:51Like, just in terms of just thinking about the defense, like, I would say, again, besides Jacksonville, clearly the three toughest, and
17:57again, the Ravens, clearly the three toughest offenses to face this season were Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas.
18:02And that was three of their four-four first games.
18:04I expect the defense to look better. And the Colts say hi.
18:08They also beat them. Well, I know the Colts.
18:10I didn't say that every single team has a three of the four great offenses.
18:14And also, that Colts game was without Nico. Like, Texas are winning that game with Nico Collins, in my opinion.
18:20He's a player that is, he misses time, though.
18:23Like, this is like nothing new for Nico Collins.
18:25Like, he has his hand. Like, the fact that the team is so dependent on, and again, like, is this really reflective
18:32of Houston's offense being, because, dude, the Colts defense is also bad.
18:35And Houston-Texas offense looked like crap against them, even though they didn't have Nico.
18:39I think it's kind of like we had the compounding effect where it's like you get Nico back and you get the Dallas Cowboys.
18:46So now your offense looks amazing, but then your defense looks like crap.
18:49So, yeah, I go back to my point where, like, just not a complete team.
18:54Well, again, I'm not saying it's been a perfect start, obviously.
18:57Like, they are 0-4, and Colts loss was bad.
18:59But my point is that three of their toughest games of the season, I would argue, going into the season, in terms
19:06of what the defense is facing, have already happened.
19:08So I'm not surprised that overall the defense doesn't look, like, statistically as amazing.
19:12I wouldn't be surprised. But the rest of their schedule, again, setting aside the Jacksonville games, which Jags are better, it's Tennessee.
19:18It's the Giants with the backup quarterback. It's the Chargers that look broken.
19:22It's the Browns, which eventually are going to fall back to earth.
19:25It's the Colts again. It's the Steelers with an old quarterback.
19:29It's Washington on the third string quarterback. It's Philly, which looks broken.
19:32It's Green Bay, which looks broken. And then Tennessee again.
19:35Like, the schedule does lighten up immensely compared to the four games they've had to start the season.
19:40Again, outside of those three that I highlighted, which every team is going to have a couple of tough games in there.
19:46It's a math problem, though, D-Bro. Like, they're 0-4.
19:49It doesn't matter if they play, like, a playoff-level team from here on out.
19:53The margin for error is just – it's not even gone.
19:56It's in the negatives. Like, it's so difficult mathematically to come back from this.
20:00Oh, yeah. I don't disagree with anything. And then you get to the – I mean, their problems that they have are glaring problems.
20:07The only thing they're doing well right now is stopping the run.
20:10They're passing in – like, their bottom five in explosive pass rate.
20:13Yeah, sure, they're pressuring the quarterback and stuff. Doesn't matter when their secondary is a freaking mess.
20:18They cannot run the ball. So, they're a one-dimensional offense.
20:21And at any given moment, C.J. Stroud can C.J.
20:24Stroud. And if Nico Collins isn't out there, good Lord.
20:26I mean, you know, Nick Kaley might go back to running out Xavier Hutchinson and throw Jalen Null back into a 30%
20:33snap rate and then cut the routes of Dalton Schultz.
20:36Who knows? And none of this is crazy because we've already seen it all happen earlier this season.
20:41So, it's not like I'm prognosticating things that just sound insane and could never happen.
20:45No, we've seen all of this. So, I think we're looking at a team that is – I'm not saying they're broken
20:51because they have a lot of talent on this roster.
20:54But on the offensive side of the ball, it's not being utilized properly.
20:58On the defensive side of the ball, it's not playing up to the talent level.
21:02So, while we look at the rest of their schedule and we say, man, you know, their schedule lightens up a whole lot.
21:09Again, the only pushback I'll give is we are at week four – or, well, the conclusion of week four.
21:14So, a lot of it, we still don't know who some of these teams are, who they can be.
21:20And if the Texans are playing this bad, we need to lower our expectations to some of these teams that are playing
21:26above their heads could beat them like the Browns.
21:28Maybe. I'll believe that when I see it. I just can't – I can't get over the fact – The Colts freaking beat them.
21:35The Colts are one of the worst teams in the damn NFL right now.
21:39Okay, but they didn't beat – the Colts didn't beat them with their offense.
21:43They beat them because the Texans' offense was terrible.
21:46I'm talking about the Texans' defense. Outside of Eagle Commons, they can't do anything well.
21:50Like, they cannot run the ball. I know. I'm not arguing that the offense is a problem when Nico's off the field.
21:56It's obviously terrible, and he wasn't on the field in that game.
22:00I'm saying defensively, if you were ranking the most – like, you're talking about the explosive pass rate they're giving up.
22:06The most explosive passing offenses in the NFL, I think the top three I would list are Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas.
22:12Excuse me. And those are the three games that are affecting those numbers so strongly.
22:16Like, the Titans are not going to have explosive pass plays against this defense.
22:20I don't think the Chargers are going to with what we've seen this year.
22:24I don't think Deshaun Watson is going to. The offense is a problem.
22:27I have zero disagreement with you there, Debra, at all.
22:30The Houston offense is bad. Nick Kaley has done a poor job.
22:34It is a problem. I don't think the defense is as bad as the stats say because of these offenses.
22:39And then they play the Ravens at the back half.
22:42They play the Commanders, who it looks like they're going to get Jaden Daniels back.
22:46They play the Jaguars again. If the Eagles can somehow find their way, if the Packers can somehow find their way.
22:52Because the Packers' biggest problem is their offensive line.
22:55And so, if their offensive line can somewhere get to a semblance of, at least in the area code of league average,
23:01again, I'm big time worried about the Texans. Because I don't lean on anything outside of rushing the passer and stopping the
23:07run that this entire team is doing well. They should get Brayden Smith back at some point.
23:12Because he's been on inter-reserve since the start of the season, but it was the short term.
23:17So, they should be able to upgrade tackle. And one thing about Stroud that he actually has been good, he hasn't really turned the ball over.
23:24Which you can't say for a lot of these imploding offenses that we've seen.
23:28You're right about that. Like the Colts, like the Chargers.
23:31He doesn't have a turnover since week one. So, that is working in favor of the Texans.
23:36I just don't see, and maybe I shouldn't say this because we see divisional upsets all the time.
23:41Like they have to win that game in Jacksonville.
23:44Or in London, excuse me. They have to split at least one of these.
23:48If they enter the bye week at 2-5, I think that's totally different than if they go in on a three-game win streak into their bye week.
23:55And then I could see, okay, could they maybe sneak into the wild card if things start to get together, Nico Collins
24:02stays healthy, and the defense just gets back to top 10 and not giving up explosive plays.
24:07I could see that through all the kind of things we talked about.
24:10Because again, I don't think they are an 0-4 team in terms of like, you look at on paper, how many guards
24:16they give up, how many points they're scoring, especially with Nico in the lineup.
24:20But to the overarching point, eventually it is a numbers game.
24:24You have to win a certain amount of games and not lose a certain amount of games.
24:28And that's what really puts them behind the eight ball.
24:31Like if you can't run the ball versus the freaking Cowboys, you got some serious freaking issues, dude.
24:36I mean, the Ravens didn't run the ball that well against the Cowboys.
24:40They ran it, they got touchdowns. But I think the Cowboys run defense has improved from the first two weeks of the season.
24:47I'm not trying to say I think the Texans are going to make the playoffs, to be clear.
24:52I'm saying I think that the opponents have had a real hand in the statistical defensive profile that the Texans have put out there so far.
24:59And I think they are better than an 0-4 team.
25:02Again, but I do think there's a problem in terms of like, A, they had these clear flaws.
25:07And B, I don't think they're going to make the playoffs.
25:10I think they've dug two big goals. Yeah, I agree with them.
25:14D-Bro, let's go to your what we learned this week.
25:16You've got another team that's in big trouble. The Eagles are an absolute and total mess right now.
25:21And like, I mean, let's just go through the injuries.
25:24Saquon's hurt. Dallas Goddard's hurt. Devontae Smith's hurt. Lane Johnson's got personal things.
25:28The offensive line can't play well. They can't rush the passer.
25:31And outside of their cornerbacks. Oh, yes. And by the way, Quinion Mitchell is now hurt too.
25:36Outside of their outside cornerbacks, what part of the defense has been playing extremely well?
25:40Cooper DeGene looks like he's fallen off a cliff this year to begin the season.
25:44The Eagles are in big time trouble. Again, I'm having a hard time coming up with a list of what does this
25:51team do well at all versus all the other things that they are not doing well in another team going back to the volatility of defenses.
25:58Yeah. Texans were supposed to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.
26:02What are they doing? Okay. So were the Eagles.
26:05They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL is for in terms of defense.
26:10How he does, how he things. Vic Fangio. Oh, they signed Tariq Wollin.
26:14They'll just be awesome. They got Jonathan Gennard in the offseason.
26:17Their pass rush. No worries. Please. And yet here we are.
26:20Do they make the playoffs? I'm looking at their schedule.
26:23It's a, it's a tough schedule going forward. It's not like an all time difficult schedule, but it's not easy.
26:28I mean, they got the Jags in London. They get the Panthers.
26:32They have Dallas. Panthers who look Bryce. It looks awesome.
26:35They have Dallas. They have at the commanders. If Jane Daniels is back for that, they have a Giants team that, you
26:41know, has, has been played well and has coached.
26:44Well, they have Seattle and Houston and San Francisco back to back to back later in the season.
26:49I mean, it's, they're not going to go two and 15.
26:52Right. But like, there's a lot of losable games on the, on the slate and they do.
26:57It is not just that they don't look as good as I expected.
27:00They look quite bad. Erickson. Yep. It's a new offense that they still have not clearly gotten all the concepts of, and
27:07it's hard to do when you're shuffling offensive personnel every single week.
27:10They're losing more guys. The offensive line is continuing to get injured, older, and that's problematic.
27:14So the one thing that Eagles are doing well is three and outs.
27:18They have 15 three and out drives this season.
27:21That is the most in the NFL. It's not a list to be at the top of.
27:26So 11 of their last 15 three and out drives come in the second half, three more than any other team.
27:31Think about it. They couldn't beat the Rams because they just couldn't sustain any drives.
27:36And then once the Rams offense finally got out of their own way and Matthew Stafford stopped throwing interceptions, I honestly could
27:42not believe because I, I bet on the Rams.
27:45Cause I was like, once Lane Johnson was ruled out, like auto bet, fade the Eagles offense, bury them in every type of ranking.
27:51And I'm watching that scoreboard ticker on my TV.
27:54And I'm thinking, man, what are the Rams doing?
27:56Why can't they score against the Eagles? And I'm like, all right, well, I guess I was wrong.
28:02And I look up Rams win 24, 20. Wait, what happened?
28:05So yeah, this offense just looks so broken. It looks a lot like last year where it's just tale of two halves.
28:11Eagles don't do anything in one half of football.
28:14They need a big run from Saquon. They need a big play from Devontae Smith.
28:18And now those guys are all banged up. I could not agree more with Debro as just like the Eagles being in trouble here.
28:25And right now, like, are the Cowboys going to win this?
28:28Like who's actually the best bet to win this division?
28:31Now. Cowboys. I'll pull up the odds. I'm not sure what the odds are showing.
28:35It's kind of interesting because you can say like.
28:37Cowboys are my pick. Should be the Cowboys. They're probably the favorite.
28:41Cowboys should be minus money. But Giants are in first.
28:44We kind of feel like they'll probably fall off.
28:46Yes. Because James, you can only go for so long.
28:49And then. But who's, I mean, best quarterback? Like Jane Daniels?
28:52Like if he's healthy, you know, can he last?
28:55I mean, what's. I just kind of interested me to look at this division.
28:59The consensus odds on bettingpros.com have the Cowboys at plus 140.
29:02I would take that. That feels like a great bet.
29:05And you know who's plus 125 is Philly. Cowboys have longer odds than the Eagles right now.
29:09And that is consensus odds on bettingpros.com. The other thing about it is what happens when Joey Porter Jr.
29:15is a full-time player and stuff. Maybe we get a better version of this defense as we move through the season.
29:21I would go bet on the Cowboys right now.
29:23Yeah. That should be a plus odds right now.
29:26I strongly, strongly prefer the Cowboys moving forward here.
29:28Yeah. I don't know. I think that's a good call.
29:31You guys both have been kind of negative. So I want to go a little more positive with the conclusion this week.
29:38Bears defense is maybe decent. I mean, they obviously did not do.
29:41I'm not saying it with my chest, which I recognize.
29:44But this was a defense that we thought, I mean, I can't think of how many shows I did with Fitz where
29:50he said this was the circus team this year where they're going to have a great offense and the defense is going
29:56to be so bad that they're going to throw a ton and every game take the over and all that fun stuff.
30:03And that played out in week one. Carolina looks pretty good this season in multiple other games.
30:07So maybe that was more about the Panthers. And then, I mean, I know it was terrible weather conditions, but they gave
30:14up fewer than 10 points to the Vikings. They then gave up just seven points to the Eagles team we just talked about.
30:20Then they gave up 12 points to a bagged up but decent offense in the Jets, or at least what has looked like a competent offense this season.
30:28I'm not saying that the Bears defense is elite.
30:31I'm not saying that it's a defense to be maybe feared, but maybe it is not a defense to be attacked in
30:37fantasy the way we thought it was coming into the season and after week one where it was, oh, you have anybody
30:43facing them, go ahead and start them. I mean, maybe you guys disagree, but I have been more impressed than I expected to with the Bears defense.
30:51They were talking after this game about how this was like one of the easiest games they've ever played defensively because there was just so few snaps.
30:58I think the Jets ran like 32 plays in this game, and the Bears had 34 first down.
31:04It was like some insane disparity where the defense just didn't have to be on the field because Dennis Allen did a
31:10great job dialing up third down play calls and getting them off the field.
31:14So I'm not saying it's super talented. Again, I'm not saying it's the best defensive football or anything close to it, but
31:20if they're merely decent, that's actually a pretty big deal, both for facing them in fantasy and for the NFC North and the NFC in general.
31:27Once Caleb Williams gets back, they've been surprising as far as a past defense.
31:31Their run defense has still got awful. I think what they've succeeded at and the Dennis Allen, all of all of it
31:38is being very aggressive as a defensive unit and that playing in their strengths because of how these games and how their
31:44offense has allowed these games to play out in the sense of, again, going back to the Jets of it all too,
31:50like teams can run on the freaking Bears, but when the offense puts up points quickly or puts teams in a hole
31:56and makes them one dimensional, it's making the game plan a lot easier for the Bears defense.
32:01Now to their credit, they are playing well. Their past defense is playing well, and they're opportunistic and they're aggressive.
32:07So if those things can manifest and hit, yes, they look like a much better defense than I think they actually are.
32:13But some of what is helping them is their offense putting up points and making other offenses one dimensional and that really kind of carrying the day.
32:21Because if a team just decides like, look, one, we can get a lead on the Bears and put them behind the eight ball.
32:28Two, we are going to run the ball and impose our will.
32:31You're going to see more cracks in the pavement from the Bears defense.
32:35But to your point, Worm, the game scripts, the opponents, how things have kind of played out have kind of helped them,
32:41but they've kind of answered the call on the past defense side.
32:44Erickson, what do you think? Yeah, I think that the teams that they've played have definitely influenced the improvements by them because
32:51look at the Vikings, you look at the Eagles, you look at the Jets.
32:55Yes, an offense that we were excited about coming off a monster game against the Lions defense is so bad, right?
33:01It's like the total opposite. And I think that part of the reason we said, and you mentioned this, where it's complimentary
33:07football, where Ben Johnson is helping out his defense because he's playing bully ball and because he's controlling the time of possession.
33:13So what's the best defense is off the field, right?
33:16You can't score as long as we have the ball.
33:19So that's how we're going to run our games.
33:21Yep. And I think that was really helping the defense look better on paper.
33:25And yeah, it's like if the only opposing team only runs 32 plays, then yeah, it's going to be an easy day
33:31at the office for that specific defense. And I'd like to say this week against the Packers, oh, well, this is where they can get exposed.
33:39This is the best offense they've faced since week one, but the Packers offensive line is horrible.
33:44So really, is it a best offense they have faced?
33:47That remains to be seen. So I do think that the Bears definitely deserve credit for playing much better over the last couple of weeks.
33:54However, when they do run into a legitimate top 10 offense, which I don't think they have faced since week one, when
34:00they gave up over 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, who may or may not be top 10 offense.
34:05They are at least right now through the first month of the season based on who they have played.
34:11I do think that it may be a slap in the reality for the Bears defense.
34:15But when it comes to the Packers, like I'm not ready to say the Packers are a top 10 offense, even though
34:21I think Jordan Love is one of the better quarterbacks that they have faced.
34:25The offensive line in Green Bay is just, it's so, so shaky.
34:29It's just unreliable. Erickson, that's a really good point, man.
34:32Like you bringing it up. I just looked at the time of possession of each one of these games and the Bears
34:38have had a 32, 34, 36 minutes. I wasn't aware how much the Jets just didn't have.
34:43Dude, the Jets barely played. They had the ball 17 minutes.
34:46Yeah. Like you can't. 17 minutes. You can't do anything when you have the ball that little.
34:51It's like crazy. 32 plays to the Bears 89.
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35:28I'm Hamza. And I'm Martin. And we're the hosts of Out of Character.
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35:43For example, music we're listening to. Underground music, trending music, drama in music worlds.
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36:47Out every Friday. You can listen to it now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
36:53You're not incurable. You're not broken. You're having a normal human experience, and we have a solution for that.
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37:38Free Therapy! Let's go to our reality check, guys.
37:40This is where we sort of present a conclusion versus an overreaction, try to work through together.
37:45Is this a legitimate reaction or an overreaction? Erickson, what's your reality check of the week?
37:50Can the Packers be fixed? So dovetails right from the conversation we just had about the Bears and the Packers.
37:55That's the matchup that they have this week where the Packers are catching two and a half points at home against, it
38:01was just announced Tyson Bajan, who is going to be starting in this game on the road in Green Bay.
38:07We talked about this on the Look Ahead Show, Worm.
38:10And we both like the Packers getting points at home as home underdogs in a divisional matchup.
38:15But it does not feel great because of how bad the Packers have been straight up and against the spread.
38:21Instead, they barely go to Tampa Bay against Jalen Daniels, making his first NFL start and win that game.
38:26Now, upon rewatch, they definitely had opportunities to put that away.
38:29Caleb Johnson, of course, had a fumble at the three-yard line to give the ball to the Buccaneers.
38:34And then Jordan Love threw another interception in the red zone.
38:37So they had opportunities to kind of close out the game.
38:40So I don't think that the three-point line is just super indicative of how the game script was.
38:45But they still let the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hang around.
38:48And when you are facing a quarterback, an undrafted rookie free agent, and you barely squeak out with a win, like that
38:55just goes to show that this team is not one that you can trust in any way, shape, or form.
39:00Basically not the same type of team since they lost Micah Parsons last year.
39:04And I looked at more in terms of his timetable.
39:07The latest from Tom Palacero was that November is likely the most time he would be actually returning for the Green Bay Packers.
39:14So can they tread water this long enough to get him back?
39:17They also just put Edren Cooper, who looks like he has a torn Achilles.
39:21So he's not going to be helping out that defense anymore.
39:24One of their starting linebackers. Offensive line is horrendous.
39:27They had four penalties just on the offensive line against Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
39:30The one saving grace, though, if their offense, with Jordan Love, can just give him enough time, besides the Bears this week,
39:37at home, they get Dallas, Detroit, Carolina. So can Jordan Love play well enough with the really talented group of skill players he has?
39:43Tucker Craft, we saw have his best game of the season this week against the Bucs.
39:48Golden is cooking. Christian Watson is cooking. Can the offense keep them afloat long enough for them to get Micah Parsons back and keep them in contention?
39:56I pose that question to you guys. That line, by the way, for this week's game has moved from one and a
40:02half to two and a half that the Packers are getting.
40:05People hate the Packers. Yeah. And Tyson Bajon has already been announced as he's starting this week for the Bears.
40:11I think the Bears are going to win that game.
40:14That's with the back quarterback. Yeah. Dude, if they're able to keep the boat from capsizing, it's going to have to be
40:20because of Jordan Love and the passing attack. Because that's the only, and I'm going to use this term lightly, the only superpower that they have.
40:27That's it. Like they can't run the ball. They can't stop the run.
40:31Their pass defense is woeful. They can't pressure the quarterback.
40:34Although they did start out with a top 10 pressure rate in the first few weeks.
40:38It's kind of falling off a little bit, but like, so if they can keep the boat afloat, it's going to have
40:44to be on the back of Jordan Love. He's going to have to carry this team.
40:49He will have to do that. Those next few opponents, maybe.
40:52It just depends on what version of Jordan Love.
40:55The version we've gotten so far this season, I say no.
40:58No, but we also know that he does have the ability to go on these hot, these pronounced hot streaks.
41:03But again, as a pressure sensitive quarterback and some honestly God awful pressure versus clean pocket splits, maybe not.
41:09We got to get him to Toyota Thon. If we can get Jordan Love to Toyota Thon, then he can step up
41:15like he usually does that time of year. I feel like Jordan Love is a good enough quarterback that I think he
41:21can right the ship and carry them. I don't know that he's a good enough quarterback that I am like confident that he will.
41:28I think it is on the table. He is that good, but he is not so good that it's like, oh, well,
41:34if he's there, he can solve everything. Like it, it could happen.
41:38I don't know that it will Debra to your point.
41:41I'm going to pull up here just to make the playoff odds.
41:44What do you think it is for the Packers right now?
41:47Jeez. They're tuned to probably a much more generous than it should be.
41:51I would say they're probably like plus one 50.
41:53I would be just going to say the same thing.
41:56Probably like plus one 50 consensus odds on betting pros.com right now.
42:00And this is consensus updated as of like five minutes ago.
42:03Just to make the playoffs plus two 20. Oh, okay.
42:06I mean, I agree with that number. I didn't think that it was going to be that high, but I agree.
42:12The market is very, very low in the Packers.
42:14I get it right. Like when you don't, when you are the team that breaks the Buccaneers.
42:19Oh, and 12 against the spreads against the spread streak.
42:22You're that team. Like the Marcus is going to absolutely bury you.
42:25And that's why they're catching points at home. You think Todd Bullock should bring them a free basket for doing that for them?
42:32They're there. I mean, if it's in a backup quarterback, which Jordan loves their starter and they're catching points.
42:37Like that just tells you exactly how the market feels about the Packers.
42:41Yeah. And again, I mean, we, we kind of allude to this, but like bears, Cowboys, lions, Panthers, Patriots, Vikings, Rams, saints, bills, dolphins, bears, Texans, lions.
42:49That's not an easy schedule the rest of the way outside of the one game against Miami.
42:53Those are a lot of teams that, that could hand this team a loss.
42:57So yeah, that's a, that's on the Packers. I, I lean towards, they can be fixed, but I'm, I don't know that I'm betting that they will be.
43:05Um, but it's on the table. Debra, what's your reality check?
43:08I'm going to frame this and I'm just going to start this off with, there is a team out there that is
43:15two and two, but yet they are bottom 10 in EPA per play.
43:18They are bottom three in EPA per drop back.
43:21They are seventh worst in EPA per, or excuse me, passing success rate.
43:25They're also on the defensive side, seventh worst in EPA per play.
43:28They're also on the defensive side, ninth worst in EPA per drop back.
43:32They're also on the defensive side, bottom 10 and almost every single metric.
43:35So with saying all of this, I'm going to tell you that I do not care that the Indianapolis Colts are two
43:42and two, I think that they were a broken operation and the head coach and GM must be fired because I don't care that they've won two games.
43:50I don't care that in two of those games, they have put up 30 points.
43:54If you look at the box scores, there is no way outside of Jonathan Taylor doing Jonathan Taylor things.
43:59And he's the only reason this team is two and two because that man by himself willed him to two victories.
44:05Outside of that, this team is broken. They have made bad and buffoon moves after buffoon moves.
44:10You look at Shane Steichen can't get good quarterback play does get good quarterback play.
44:14It starts to fall off. Quarterback gets hurt. What do him and Chris Bauer do in the off season?
44:20Let's invest in the quarterback coming off the Achilles terror.
44:22And whoa, we're so surprised that Daniel Jones looks like 2025 Kirk cousins trying to move around and he's limited in this entire offense.
44:29We're so surprised that we spend two first round picks and go trade for sauce Gardner.
44:34Who's getting burnt on the defensive side of the ball.
44:37This organization has lost its way. They have last year was an entire fluke head coach and GM should be fired.
44:43When we were arguing about the Texans earlier, Debra, I had forgotten that this was your reality check.
44:48And then when we got here, I was like, oh yeah, that's why he kept bringing up the Colts loss in Texas.
44:54Because they suck! They suck! A real warning sign.
44:57Dude, he was so bad. He was so bad, dude.
44:59His commander's like, I couldn't believe I laid the points at the Colts watching Daniel Jones play.
45:04And then Marcus Marietta goes down and they put in Aethan Kalikamanis.
45:08Kaliak Manis. Kaliak Manis. We looked it up last night on the show, T-Pro.
45:12I mean, any other, I mean, a seventh round rookie quarterback coming in, if they had been facing any other quarterback.
45:18And he made some plays, right? Especially downfield again.
45:20Marietta was carving him up before he got hurt too.
45:23Sauce Gardner getting absolutely cooked. The last couple of weeks, he's been cooked by Traylon Burks, Diami Brown, and Xavier Hutchinson.
45:29For massive gains. Sauce Gardner. So, 58 snaps played in week four against the Commanders.
45:3395% snaps here. He allowed four catches for 117 yards and a touchdown on five targets in coverage.
45:38That was the most yards allowed in a game by Sauce Gardner.
45:42And this was not Terry McClendon. This was not Stephon Ditt.
45:45Like, this was bad wide receivers who were making plays on Sauce Gardner, who they traded multiple first round picks to acquire.
45:51And Dale Jones, third worst in EPA for drop back of the season.
45:55So, yeah. This is a team that I was very hesitant to buy in on.
45:59It was like the team I probably liked the least in the AFC South.
46:03And there's nothing I've seen through four weeks where I'm like, man, they really exceeded expectations.
46:08Do you want some Sauce stats right now? It's bad.
46:10It's really bad. 75 qualifying corners. Sauce Gardner, fifth highest EPA per target.
46:14Sauce Gardner, 10th highest passer rating allowed. Oh, it's not good.
46:17And you traded. The other thing that makes this so, so terrible.
46:21You look at the Chris Ballard of this. He traded two first round picks.
46:25Did everybody see what Joey Porter Jr. went for?
46:27Did you? Did you? So, okay. So, to me, if you're looking at the pie chart of assessing blame of this situation,
46:33I do think it's like 80% GM. I agree.
46:36Also, building a wider receiver room that is dependent upon one player that is not healthy the entirety of the offseason.
46:42And oh my gosh, he's already out with an injury?
46:45It's a dereliction of duty by Chris Ballard. I think Shane Steichen is still a competent and maybe even good head coach.
46:51Having said that, when you fire a GM, I am a believer that the GM should be able to pick their head
46:57coach, so it probably makes sense to just clean house entirely.
47:00But if I was a team that needed a head coach next year, I would happily hire Shane Steichen.
47:06Just don't let him develop a quarterback, but I agree with you on that.
47:10Is he Ben Johnson? No, but I think he's a good offensive head coach.
47:14This is, to me, a GM issue through and through.
47:17The roster is bad, and the way they have gotten to this roster, trading away picks and overpaying injured players and overpaying
47:23Daniel Jones coming off an Achilles, right? Like, if Patrick Mahomes tears his Achilles, you say, you know what?
47:28He's so great, you have to just trust he's coming.
47:31This is Daniel Jones we're talking about. Like, to me, this is almost entirely on the GM.
47:36We gotta get Shane Steichen to be the offensive coordinator for the Texans.
47:40That's what we need. I'd be on board with that.
47:42Send him back to Philly. It's fine. Please. Or that too, yeah.
47:46I mean, I'm thinking, like, with Shane Steichen, I'm like, if Zach Taylor gets fired this year in Cincinnati, I think that's an interesting fit.
47:53I mean, as long as you're not asking him to develop for that.
47:57If Dan Quinn gets fired, he goes to pair with Jane Daniels.
48:00I mean, the only thing I'll lay at the feet of Shane Steichen is the ability.
48:05They pick their quarterback and they did not develop him.
48:07And I understand there's a lot of Anthony Richardson and a long conversation to be had with that.
48:12But also when you're at, like, it is laid at your feet to select your quarterback and to develop them.
48:18And you fail miserably at that. That also, you know, he's got to take some onus on that.
48:23I mean, I mean, it worked before Daniels got hurt.
48:26Like, it was. Well, it was also one of the proof of concept was there.
48:30I mean, but. Cracks in the pavement before you got hurt too.
48:34The fact that they, they doubled downed on, like, okay, we'll just run it back.
48:38It's like, there's no way this is going to work.
48:41Like, there's, like, no way this is going to work again.
48:44They were like, it's our only option. He can't move.
48:47He legit cannot move. Like, everybody saw. And if you haven't seen that horrible play versus the commanders this last week, where
48:53Daniel Jones, like, looks like a statue and then he gets knocked over, like, like, he's some kind of plastic mannequin.
48:59And he can't move. But again, why are you bringing him back to direct this offense versus, like, I said for the
49:05entirety of the offseason, what would this offense and this team look like if they had assigned Malik Willis instead of bringing Daniel Jones back?
49:12So bad. Let's get to my reality check. And again, this isn't me saying I definitively believe it.
49:17It's asking you guys if it's an overreaction or not.
49:20I'm saying that 49ers are the best team in football.
49:23I was impressed. The Broncos have not been some great team that it's super impressive to beat.
49:28I was impressed by the Niners are banged up, right?
49:31No Nick Bosa. No, a lot of players. I didn't feel like they brought their A game.
49:36And I still never felt like that game was ever going a different direction other than, like, a 7-10 point win for them.
49:42They ended up winning by double digits, 10 points, 24-14 against the Broncos.
49:46And while the Broncos haven't looked great this year, this is still a team that was a Bo Nix injury away from
49:52being in the Super Bowl a year ago that does have lots of talent.
49:56I know Sertan got hurt in this game, but, like, there is a lot of talent on that defense.
50:01And, I mean, the Niners haven't allowed a sack this season.
50:05The broadcast was talking about that a lot during this game.
50:08They've yet to allow a sack. Brock Purdy has looked like an MVP, which I talked about on the show last week.
50:14And, like, their schedule, it has not been a murderer's row, but they did destroy the Rams.
50:19Again, we've talked a lot about the travel stuff there.
50:22They did what they should have done against the Dolphins, which is beat them down.
50:26They beat a Cardinals team that has looked pretty frisky and, like, easily could have beaten the Giants this week and, you
50:32know, has taken down some other teams. And then the Broncos, again, they win handedly.
50:36If you look at point differential, this is the best team in football, which is a simplistic stat, but just to point
50:43it out, they're the only team in the NFL that is top three in both points scored and top three in fewest points allowed.
50:49They've just looked really, really good. Substation issues, be damned.
50:52And this is despite having a ton of injuries and, you know, Kyle Shanahan dealing with the concussion stuff and the car
50:59accident, the offseason, just everything that felt like it could have been going against them this summer and early into September.
51:05They've just looked really, really awesome. And I actually expect them to lose this week against the Seahawks because Mike McDonald does
51:11an amazing job, his defenses against Kyle Shanahan offenses.
51:13So I'm not saying they're going undefeated or anything like that.
51:16I just think that they are the best team in football right now.
51:20And I'm curious what you guys think. Is that a, you know, conclusion or an overreaction, Debra?
51:25I was prepared to come in here and kind of push back a little bit, but I mean, I'm looking at just around the NFL.
51:32If they're not the best team in football, then who are we making the case for?
51:37Who is? Dude, Vikings. No. No. But to your point, though, the only other 4-0 team, and I think we can even like sum up the Chiefs.
51:44The Chiefs, you can make a case for sure.
51:47The Bills don't have the defensive side. I would make a case for the Bills.
51:51I think they're too reliant on the offense. You know who I was?
51:55I was thinking about this this morning, actually. I was trying to think, who are the teams that I would put against the Niners?
52:02Because it's a great question by you, Debra. And so the Niners is one.
52:06I went to the Chiefs as two. I still think the Seahawks.
52:09And then the Jags were my fourth. So Chiefs, Jags, and Seahawks were the three teams where I'm like, I have a
52:15lot of belief in them in certain ways on both sides of the ball.
52:19Not in every way, but they are more well-rounded, very good teams.
52:23There's two losses combined across those three teams. Teams are going to take losses.
52:27It's fine. Those, to me, are the contenders here.
52:29I'm with you on that, and I'll also throw into the fray the Ravens if they can get the defensive side of
52:35the ball short up and stuff like that. Oh, I think the Ravens could be there by the end of the season.
52:42The Rams, but right now, yeah. The Rams are definitely not in that conversation.
52:46They're not even on my short list right now.
52:48No, I'm saying you might think that's way to show them.
52:51Not right now, certainly. But again, I was prepared to push back on this.
52:55I'm like, oh, the 49ers? Really? And you start looking around, and you're like, well, no, actually, he's right.
53:01And I think it's interesting, too, because I almost went on to this thinking, well, we'll see what they do against Seattle.
53:07Like, if they beat Seattle, then you'll be proved right.
53:10But the most likely outcome is whether they win or lose, they're probably going to split with the Seahawks anyway.
53:15Right? So it almost doesn't really matter who wins this particular game, especially because 49ers have to go on the road to play Seattle.
53:22If they lose in a close game, I don't think anyone's going to look at the 49ers and be like, well, I
53:28can't believe we thought this team was the best team in the NFL.
53:32If it goes down to the fourth quarter, last possession, Brock Brady gets intercepted or he throws a touchdown.
53:38So I like this one a lot, too. Similar to D-Braw, I was like, oh, I can't wait to be like, this is so wrong.
53:45This is cold takes exposed. They're going to get smashed this week in Seattle.
53:49It's like, well, actually, like, I don't know. I do really feel like looking at their schedule, I'm like, I wouldn't be
53:55surprised if they got swept by Seattle. Again, Mike McDonald, even dating back to being the defensive coordinator in Baltimore.
54:01Did they split last year? No, didn't they? Because the Seahawks won.
54:04I honestly don't remember. No, no. Right. They did lose in week.
54:07But that was like a week one game where teams are very different in week one.
54:12Right? Like how the 49ers beat the Rams in week one.
54:15But then they beat them in week 18 and in the divisional round.
54:19Three times? They lost three times? No, the Niners won week one against Seattle.
54:23And then they lost week eight. And then Seattle won week 18 and the divisional round.
54:27The games that matter the most. Yeah, yeah. But again, like Mike McDonald has always been very good against Shanahan offenses.
54:33So, like, even if they get swept by them, to me, that's more of a head coach matchup thing than it is
54:39like, oh, that means they're not actually a good team.
54:42And then the only other game I'm like, oh, well, the Niners could lose that is the Chiefs.
54:47Like, the rest of their schedule. I mean, this could be a 14-3 team this season.
54:52I'm sorry. It wouldn't stop me. I think they're really good.
54:55When Erickson's like, oh, so they lost every game that really mattered.
54:58Okay, cool. Yes, yes, you're right. You're right, Erickson.
55:01I would say, too, the 49ers have to take advantage of when they have their healthiest players available, which I don't even
55:07know if that's really even the case right now with the current roster.
55:11I mean, the fact that Mike Evans, like, gutted out that performance last week where still super productive.
55:16But, dude, every time he catches the ball, he's like grimacing.
55:19Did you watch that game? Like, every single catch that he had, he got up off the ground.
55:24And you're just like, oh, man, I can tell he's feeling it.
55:28Yeah, he's playing extremely banged up. But, I mean, still, I think he led the team in receiving.
55:33I mean, he still had five catches. I believe over 70 yards.
55:36I think the Buccaneers would love to have that kind of leadership in their locker room right now.
55:41Oh, that was something we should have. That was one thing that we have not talked about with the Buccaneers.
55:47But losing Mike Evans, losing Levante David. A lot of leadership at the door, man.
55:51Yep. By the way, Erickson, the only thing I can think of when you said, like, oh, so all the games that matters.
55:58It's very reminiscent of Shooter McGavin and Happy Gilmore.
56:00How'd he finish? Dead last? Like, that was the exact vibes we were giving off.
56:05Very nice. All right, let's wrap up with Stockwatch.
56:07We each have brought to the table a stock up and a stock down.
56:11Now, this can be teams. It can be narratives.
56:14It can be players. It can be coaches. You guys went very team-heavy with your picks this week.
56:19Erickson, start us off. Who's your stock up? The Patriots, baby.
56:22We're back. Drake May is back, baby. Patriots posted 49% success rate.
56:25Highest game in an NFL this season. They're back.
56:28Drake May looked significantly better than he did the first three weeks of the season.
56:32And although he still did some of his turnover things, he had a fumble interception.
56:36Not great. He was much more efficient, looking a lot like his old self.
56:4022-37 passing, 269 yards, and three touchdowns. And he's making plays with his legs again, which I was really, really happy to see.
56:47So he's not just sitting back like a sitting duck taking hits.
56:50He's escaping. Using his legs. He had 54 rushing yards on the ground.
56:54This doesn't mean the Patriots don't have problems still, because they do.
56:57They still can't really run the football. And I kind of wish they would just kind of commit to one guy, because
57:04I don't think that they can get in any type of rhythm when they're always exchanging running backs at different times.
57:10So that's one thing that I'm looking to see how they do rest of season.
57:14The schedule does get a little bit easier, as we've talked about some of the fantasy shows with the Patriots.
57:20Now, the Raiders is going to be a tough test, because the Raiders' defense is, I think, pretty legit, especially given how
57:26they played last week against the Chiefs. I know they gave up 30 points in the end, but a lot of that
57:32came in the fourth quarter with some of those big Ken Walker plays.
57:36And then they had the kickoff return that immediately gave the Chiefs a possession deep in the Raiders' territory.
57:41So I'm very interested in this particular matchup. But all in all, the Patriots were down so bad after the first three weeks of the season.
57:49Drake May looked like he had never played quarterback before.
57:51And seeing them go up to Buffalo and upset the Bills yet again was obviously great to see.
57:56So stop. You want to know the biggest, one of the biggest reasons outside of Drake May playing really well that changed things for the Patriots, Erickson?
58:04Does that have to do with using motion? It has to do with using motion and using play action.
58:10Last week, Josh McDaniels dialed up motion at 75.3% of their plays, 33.7% play action rates.
58:14Those were both top 12 clips. You look at the first three weeks of the season, 53.9% motion, 21.7% play action.
58:20It's, it made a world of difference and walking into this week.
58:23So like I actually sat down on Saturday and I was like, man, I haven't gotten to Drake May's all 22.
58:29I haven't actually watched all of his games and stuff.
58:32I sat down and watched all the, all the games up to week four.
58:36And I was like, he still looks like the same guy, but he's pressing.
58:40There's a lot to be had where he's just, he's going for the big play.
58:44He's not taking the smart plays underneath. Somewhat the, what, what I took away from that is the offense didn't look broken in design.
58:51It was, he was pressing and he was missing a lot of plays.
58:55I do think in, in all of this though.
58:57And I want to say this very quickly is that I think the shoulder thing is a real concern for Drake May,
59:04because when you turn on the film for him, his throws at certain points where he's throwing off platform and it's all arm.
59:10He doesn't have his base under him. The zip is lacking a little bit.
59:14So I do think that the shoulder thing is real.
59:17Now, how real is it? We'll see how it goes through as more hits pile up, more throws and stuff.
59:23Like as we go through the season, I do think that the shoulder concerns that have kind of come out in the
59:29ether are more legitimate than they are false. This is a stock up clearly compared to the first three weeks of the season.
59:36It's not like a stock up compared to obviously preseason.
59:38It's just sort of like starting to get back close to his level, but obviously we expected it's, I don't think any
59:45of us expected Drake May to look like he didn't know how to play quarterback the entire year.
59:50So at some point we thought this coming, Eric's and you were all over this matchup for him last week.
59:55Just like, this is what happens in the NFL is, you know, the Patriots look as terrible as they can.
60:01They go to Buffalo place. They played well before and they upset the bills.
60:05And that's exactly what happened. Debra. Who's your stock up?
60:08The Vegas Raiders baby. Dude, they're three in one.
60:10They go toe to toe with the chiefs. Kirko chains is making a few plays out of structure.
60:16Like who, who is this man? Who, who is this?
60:18I was not told of this man that right now they are ninth best in points per drive.
60:24Their defense. Max Crosby does not look like a player that is on his last leg.
60:28This defense is playing very, very well. Like they've got a functional offense.
60:32Now I'm very curious, like as teams get more film on them, what does the offense look?
60:37Cause they still have definitive, like they are having issues with the offensive line still and issues trying to run the ball.
60:43Brock Bowers is basically playing wide receiver, running a lot of hitch routes.
60:47He's excelling versus zone, but you know, when they play a team that can man up and try to take him out
60:53of the game, what's that going to look like?
60:55Like, I mean, look at the Patriots this week, a lot of man coverage.
60:59Does that look a lot different than, you know, you have a lot of these other teams they've played to this point.
61:06Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, a lot of too high defense, not a lot of man coverage that you're going to see.
61:12So, you know, what do they look like for the entirety of the season?
61:15But right now, like could the Raiders make it into the playoffs as a wild card team?
61:20It's possible, man. Not a statement that anybody, any one of us would have made.
61:25And I was very big on Fernando Mendoza, not starting and Kirko looking good enough to keep him off the field.
61:31I didn't see this version of the Raiders coming.
61:33Sure. Didn't. So hats off. Yeah. I mean, they, they're, they like the seventh best point differential in football.
61:38Again, I know I keep going back to that stat, but I'm like, they have a better point differential than the bills, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Rams.
61:46But you're not crazy, like at the, at the core of all of the things playing football, score more points than the
61:53other team and don't give up a lot of points.
61:56So now, you know, it is worth noting that of the top seven teams in point differential this year, four of them
62:02are the four opponents who have played the dolphins.
62:04So I just, I, it is worth noting that that has been helpful to some of these teams and now not that
62:11the Vikings blew them out, but you know, just want to point that out when I mentioned like, Oh, the Niners had
62:17this great differential, the Raiders had this great differential.
62:19They have taken advantage of the dolphins, but that is what good teams do.
62:23I'm totally with you deeper. And in fact, before you picked them, this was going to be my stock up of the
62:30day was just them looking like they belong with the chiefs.
62:33It's not even like, like, yes, they lost. Yes.
62:35The chiefs I do think are the better team and the deserving winner in that game.
62:40They belonged in the same field. That was not the case last year.
62:43It hasn't been the case in a lot of years in the Mahomes era.
62:47I was really impressed. I totally agree with you as a playoff contender.
62:51I think we talked about a little bit last week at our conclusion segment that this team looked pretty good.
62:57And then to go out and sort of live up to that with a close game against the chiefs.
63:02I was super impressed. Erickson. Yeah. I mean, you look at toe to toe with Kansas city did not look overmatched whatsoever.
63:08They look like just as good, if not the better team on Sunday.
63:12Now, obviously it did not work out in their favor, but still not overmatched.
63:16And that was a big witness test, right? I wanted to see what the Raiders did when they were going up a class in terms of opponent.
63:24And for all intents and purposes, they met the demand of the Kansas city chiefs.
63:28So I don't think that again, nobody wants like a moral victory, but I do think or a moral loss, but I
63:34do think the Raiders did look really good. And that's why I'm not super confident, you know, picking my Patriots against them this week.
63:41I think it's a really intriguing matchup with the Raiders going on the road to face the Patriots.
63:46Both teams kind of struggle to run the football.
63:49I'm actually curious what you guys think. Like so Ashton Gentry right now is fifth worst in EPA per rush this season.
63:55I think this team, if they actually want to make a playoff push, they have to get another wide receiver on this roster.
64:02Like I think when you look at what is threatening defenses downfield, literally nothing.
64:06Trey Tucker, like that's not happening. So for me, the perfect guy.
64:09And I think I talked about this in one of the off season shows is get Brian Thomas Jr.
64:14to the Las Vegas Raiders. We've already seen Jacksonville and the Raiders make a trade.
64:19Jacksonville traded for Jacoby Myers last season. And if you're the Jaguars, who did you lose to this year?
64:24The Denver Broncos. So you lose a tiebreaker to Denver.
64:27You want the Raiders to beat the Denver Broncos.
64:29Who do you want the Raiders to also beat?
64:32The Kansas City Chiefs at some point. Like, I think that makes way more sense than Jacksonville just keeping Brian Thomas Jr.
64:38in a limited time role when, hey, let's go help out our Raiders folk, help them beat the teams that beat us
64:44in the Denver Broncos and get a draft pick or something back in return.
64:48So that's what I think they need to do, whether it's Brian Thomas Jr., whether it's Marvin Harrison Jr., whether it's somebody
64:55they need to add another wide receiver that can take the top off the football and just give a vertical threat.
65:01Because I think that'll actually help the run game a little bit with Ashley Jente.
65:05You see this too with like a player like Jonathan Taylor.
65:08His splits are significantly worse when you don't have a player like Alec Pierce.
65:12And instead, that guy is Laquan Treadwell. Teams are not afraid of Laquan Treadwell.
65:16So it makes it easier to stop and key in on a running back like Jonathan Taylor.
65:21I think that's also part of the issue with the Raiders run game is they're not afraid of anybody taking the top off the defense.
65:28If you look at the playoff picture in the AFC, like let's assume Bills win their division, Ravens win their division, Jags
65:34win their division, Chiefs win their division. So you're looking at three wildcard spots, those teams off the board.
65:40The teams that the Raiders are competing with are the Patriots who are 2-2 and are coming off of your game.
65:45But like that makes this game really important for them.
65:48None of the AFC South teams, I don't think, because Texas are 0-4.
65:52We don't like the Colts. The Broncos are 2-2 and haven't looked good.
65:56So it's like the Patriots, the Broncos, and then whatever's going on in the AFC North.
66:00Bengals, Steelers, and Browns obviously are all 2-2 or better.
66:03Just to throw it out there. We don't really believe in the Browns.
66:07I don't really believe in the Steelers long term.
66:09So again, there's basically like four teams for three spots.
66:12That could obviously change. The Atlanta game is going to look a lot different by the end of the season.
66:18But I'm like, the Raiders are plus 165 consensus odds on bettingpros.com to make the playoffs right now.
66:23I'm like, that's their competition? They just have to beat out one of those teams as of right now and they're a playoff team?
66:30And by the way, they have a game up on all of those teams I just mentioned besides the Browns.
66:35Like, I don't see why they shouldn't be considered a team that can make the playoffs.
66:40I think you're totally spot on here. I don't disagree at all.
66:43And what I think, one of the very fascinating things that I wanted to get y'all's take on this.
66:49All right. The next three games are the litmus test.
66:52Give me the record of the next three weeks.
66:54Patriots, Bills, Rams. What is the record over the next three weeks?
66:58They go 3-0. They go 0-3. Erickson, where are they at the next three weeks?
67:02Yeah, because you could see them very much going 0-3 and then being like, it was a fugazi.
67:07Yeah, I see them going 3-0. Well, because they're not going to be favored in any of those games.
67:12No, they're not. No matter what. They could go out and kill the Patriots and they'll still be underdogs against the Bills
67:19and they're still going to be underdogs against the Rams unless Matthew Stafford's hurt.
67:23I'm going to say 1-2. But no, it's interesting.
67:25Which is a cop. That was my initial lean to it.
67:28I think they sneak one of them. I don't know which.
67:31Patriots, obviously, the best chance probably, although the Rams have been playing that well lately.
67:36I think they get one of those three. And so then that puts them at four.
67:40I also feel like I'm describing it. I'm actually going to lean the positive side.
67:44I'm going to make them 2-1. 2-1? You think they lose against Buffalo and they beat the other two?
67:50I think they lose one of these games because they sneak out two in.
67:54If they go 2-1, those playoff odds are going to turn minus real quickly.
67:58Especially if they beat Bills and Patriots. I mean, the Patriots, we just had a long conversation of, oh, Drake May is back.
68:04But the volatility of that. Eagles, Josh Yawans had some stinker games, too.
68:08It's not like he hasn't. That defense can be had.
68:11The Rams, we just talked about they almost lost to the freaking Eagles.
68:15So I'm not saying they go 3-0. I think they can get two wins here, boys.
68:19I think they can. Dude, black hole's back, baby.
68:22That'd be fun. NFL's better when the Raiders are good.
68:24Just flat out is. Oh, absolutely. Cosign. Yeah. All right.
68:27My stock up. You guys went with teams, so I wanted to go actually with a coach.
68:32I'm just saying Liam Cullen. We talked a bit about the Jaguars earlier in the show, how we think they're one of the top four teams in football.
68:40I feel like this offseason, obviously, it's always who are the top 10 coaches in football, right?
68:45Everybody does their rankings and their lists and has all the fun with it.
68:49And I feel like everybody looked at last year and said, we knew Ben Johnson was a great offensive coordinator.
68:55He looked really good in year one. He's automatically a top five coach already.
68:59We're just giving him that mantle right away. And I think it's deserved.
69:02Ben Johnson's amazing. Liam Cohen has also had great offenses everywhere he's been, designed a great run game, had an awesome first
69:08year as a head coach as an offensive play caller, revitalized the former number one quarterback like Ben Johnson.
69:14And yet everybody was like, he's really good, but we need to see it another year.
69:18He's more in that eight, nine range of the rankings, whereas Ben Johnson was number four on a lot of people's lists.
69:25I think Liam Cullen deserves to be in that.
69:27There's a lot of really good coaches, but I think he deserves to be in that conversation as a top five or six head coach.
69:34I don't know how much more we need to see.
69:37He checks every box we look for out of the up and coming offensive head coach masterminds.
69:42He's worked with Sean McVay, so he comes from that tree.
69:45He again has done it at both the college level at Kentucky.
69:49He did it with Tampa Bay. He didn't just call out a great offense last year.
69:53He won a lot of games. They won 13 games.
69:56He totally changed Trevor Lawrence's career. He's made good defensive coordinator hire with Campanilli.
70:00Like I just don't know what more we need to see to say this guy is one of the, is he Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay?
70:07No, we do need to see more to get there.
70:10But I don't understand the disparity between him and Ben Johnson other than Ben Johnson is a better quote in front of the press conferences.
70:17Because to me, they both have very similar resumes to what they've done in the NFL so far.
70:22And the Jags look awesome. I think they are one of the two best teams in the AFC right now.
70:28Again, that could change if the Bills defense pulls it together or Lamar is healthy.
70:32But them and the Chiefs feel like the top two, four weeks into the season.
70:36And I think Cohen deserves credit. And his stock is up for me in terms of his ranking amongst all NFL quarterbacks, Erickson.
70:43Yeah, I could not agree more. I think that they're legit Super Bowl contenders.
70:47They find different ways to win, whether it's on offense, whether it's in defense, whether it's a low scoring game or high scoring game.
70:54I think that there's one of the most complete teams in the NFL.
70:57And I think Liam Cohen's record, what you said, he won 13 games last year.
71:02He was 13 of four last year, right? Yeah.
71:04So he is 16 and five since the beginning of last year.
71:08It's pretty good. It's pretty good. And I think too, the reason he doesn't get as much hype is because he plays in his market.
71:15That's one of the reasons. Yes, I'm with you.
71:17I was just about to say the same thing.
71:20That's one of the reasons why it's like the same exact spiel of Trevor Lawrence and all these Jacksonville receivers.
71:26They were all cheaper than the Bears because it's just the Jaguars were the Bears of the Florida.
71:31And they just have not as good of the publicist as Ben Johnson in the Chicago Bears does.
71:36And that's why Jacksonville was flying under the radar.
71:38It seemed like all offseason. And I think that Liam Cohen even mentioned that.
71:42He's like, yeah, we don't get as much hype or as press as the Bears do, but we don't care.
71:48All we do is go out and win games.
71:51And I think you're going to continue to see that.
71:53I think that they're just going to continue to go on a streak.
71:57I know they dropped that game in Denver, but I know when we were previewing that game where we talked about how
72:03Denver early season at Denver is tough for players.
72:06And it's not like they went out there and got absolutely blown up, blown out.
72:10Like it was a game where they had a chance and they just couldn't finish it out in the fourth quarter.
72:16So besides that, I mean, they've been looked really, really good on both sides of the football.
72:21Again, you talk about teams that brought back a lot of the same guys they had last year.
72:26No team had like less turnover than the Jacksonville Jaguars.
72:29And people looked at that. It's like, man, like you didn't do anything to improve your roster.
72:34It's like, well, our roster was really good last year.
72:37So we didn't really need to shake things up too significantly.
72:40I know that their draft wasn't exactly the greatest, but in terms of what they have in their starting lineup and the
72:46pieces they have in place and Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen's offense for another year.
72:50Yeah, I think this is a great stock up to call out for him.
72:54You hit one of the two reasons why I felt like he doesn't get it's the market size, why he doesn't get
73:00the respect by national media and the national attention like Ben Johnson does.
73:04You throw Liam Cohen in Chicago and he's beloved by everybody.
73:07New York. Exactly. Throw him in a major media market and he is he's plastered everywhere.
73:12The other part about it is I think that people look at him as being a goofball because of his opening press
73:18conference, the fact that he's more mild mannered and he's got, you know, nerd in the spreadsheets kind of vibes.
73:24But that's why people don't respect him enough, man.
73:26But again, like that can be why the Jacksonville Jaguars sneak up on teams like like, OK, y'all don't think we're good
73:33enough and we're going to put all the bulletin board stuff up.
73:36OK, fine. We'll show you. The end of the day, we're gonna have more points than you.
73:41Just because I brought it up a lot. They're second in the NFL in point differential right now.
73:46They second fewest points allowed and that's not even the strength of the head coach, which is the offense where there are
73:52something like there are multiple team when you and Erickson, you brought this up when you have the ability to win multiple different types of games.
73:59Like if we get in the shootout, we can hang with you.
74:03If you want to play grimy, we can do that.
74:06You want to run the ball and try to stop us.
74:09We can do that. But that's teams that make long playoff runs that deep into the playoffs because you are presented with
74:15all different types of opponents and some are going to try to take this away, this way, this way.
74:20It's going to be cold. It's going to be rainy.
74:23It's going to be indoors. If you can be multiple and play in a lot of different game environments, that's how you make a deep playoff run.
74:31When you are stuck, like if we can't pass the ball, we're kind of screwed.
74:35If we can't stop the run, we're kind of screwed like that.
74:39Parker Washington, the superstar we all love had one catch for seven yards yesterday and it didn't matter.
74:44They were up 22 to 10 late in that game.
74:47Well, Toon had two touchdowns called back. Called back because of penalties.
74:50He's like, all right, fine. We'll throw to Brenton Strange and Josh Cameron and we'll not dominate, but like win pretty handily against the Bengals.
74:57And two, when you talk about, look at who Jacksonville's played.
75:00They haven't played anybody with a losing record. They destroyed the Browns who are three.
75:04That's the Browns only lost. They're the only team that beat the Browns.
75:08And they destroyed them. They lost to Denver, but they still played them tough on the road.
75:13They beat the Bengals on the road and they destroyed the Patriots.
75:16They obliterated the Patriots. Three of those four teams we looked at as playoff teams.
75:21Yeah. Entering this season. And now they're going to be taking on again, another team that we looked at as a playoff team.
75:27That was one thing that people pushed back with Jacksonville in the preseason was, well, look at their opening schedule.
75:33It's really tough. And I remember looking at that as well.
75:36But then I was thinking, what if they come out on top of the schedule?
75:40This team is going to be able to make a run because they're showing against teams we've viewed as playoff teams.
75:46They're dominating. They have the fourth lowest odds to win the AFC right now.
75:50That to me is a mistake. They should have shorter odds than that.
75:54Yeah, they should. They should. And by the way- Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs are all shorter odds.
75:59I think that's a mistake. Parker Washington bounce back game versus Cooper DeGene this week.
76:03Calling it now. All right. We've gone way too long here.
76:06So let's just give our stock downs and get out of here without much back and forth.
76:11Erickson, who's your stock down? Los Angeles Chargers again.
76:13Office of injuries, turnovers continue to destroy this team.
76:16The schedule remains absolutely brutal. Rashawn Slater, Joe Ault, Vlad McConkie all added with injuries this past week.
76:21Justin Herber has become a turnover machine. And who did it get to play this week?
76:26Guys, who is it? By the way, just quickly, Slater is high ankle sprain.
76:30The MRI showed officially this morning. So it's so over.
76:33I actually looked at my offseason bet for the Chargers to win over 11 and a half games.
76:38Guess how much I can get for my cash out?
76:40I was just happy that they'd let me cash out at all.
76:44By the way, when you asked, they're playing the Broncos this week.
76:47Yeah. So another tough, tough spot for LA. You're lucky if you can get a sandwich for that cash out, bud.
76:53Praying. Debra, what's your stock down? Broncos, man. Super Bowl contender, they are not.
76:57Bo Nix looks terrible. I'll just say it while you're saying yours because to save time, Bo Nix was my stock down.
77:03Dude, he looks terrible. He looks like he's regressed so much.
77:07People talk about what is the problem with Jalen Waddell.
77:09The problem with Jalen Waddell is Bo Nix. The problem with Jalen Waddell is definitely Bo Nix.
77:14And the problem with Bo Nix is Bo Nix.
77:17Also, we can add a little Davis Webb conversation into all this.
77:20But yeah, Bo Nix is third worst in yards per attempt.
77:236.2 air yards per attempt, which is second lowest in the NFL behind only.
77:27Doesn't have a clue. It doesn't. The Bo Nix of all of this is he doesn't.
77:32It doesn't matter the play design when he bails the pocket or can't throw an accurate pass.
77:37Does not matter what the play is called if he can't run it.
77:40And it's, again, talking about a team where, Erickson, you brought it up earlier.
77:44Defensive volatility. This defense doesn't look Super Bowl caliber.
77:47And then when you get to, like, now they have Sertain is hurt.
77:51They're rushing the passer. But outside of that, what are they doing well?
77:54They can't tackle. They have one of the highest missed tackle rates.
77:58They're god-awful on defense. They can't throw the ball.
78:00And they can't run the ball. So what does this team do well?
78:04Nothing. Yeah, I totally agree. Obviously, like I said, Bo Nix was my stockdown.
78:08Chargers Broncos. Bo Nix was fantasy QB7 each of his first two seasons of the NFL.
78:12He has had one game this season better than QB18 finish.
78:16I mean, it just looks like he – not that I thought he was great.
78:20I wasn't totally bought into him being some superstar quarterback or anything.
78:23But, man, he looks worse. Any chance Bo Nix gets a Bryce Young type of benching at some point this season?
78:29If he continues to look like this? I don't think so.
78:32I don't think so. I'm just asking the question because he's looked that bad.
78:36They're not going to do that before they put Sean Payton back in Georgia.
78:40I'm just asking the question because he's looked that bad.
78:43No, I mean, I think that there's a common theme with – if you look at a lot of these teams that
78:49are stocked down, it's New Elf as a coordinator, New Elf as a coordinator, New Elf as a play caller.
78:55Chargers, you look at the Denver Broncos, you look at the Philadelphia Eagles.
78:59I was just going to say, who's been the worst first-year play caller, Sean Mannion or Davis Webb?
79:04Mike McDaniel. He's been pretty bad, too. But he's done it before, but yeah.
79:08I would say Davis Webb. A lot of them have struggled.
79:11Like Declan Doyle, we've heaped a lot of praises on.
79:14A lot of the other first-timers have not been good in the early – Should we also give praise on the other
79:20side of this for Brad Itzig and Carolina with how good he's done?
79:24But again, he is the outlier in this entire conversation.
79:27Yeah. All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
79:30We went a little long today. Hope everybody enjoyed the conversation.
79:33Reacting to Week 4 for Debro and Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly.
79:36We'll see you again next time. Is there an epidemic against literature?
79:39More specifically, Black literature. I'm Jacquees Peace Thomas, and on this season of the Black Lit Podcast, we're outside asking why.
79:45They don't want a whole bunch of little Ella Baker's, Malcolm X's, and Martin Luther King's on their own.
79:51And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, you need to know where you came from.
79:56And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
80:01Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
80:07In February of 2024, celebrated illustrator and children's book author Petra Mathers and her husband Michael mailed letters to dozens of friends
80:14and family members to let them know they had died by suicide.
80:17Dear honeys, this is goodbye. By the time you get this letter, both Petra and I will be dead.
80:22Next stop, Wonderland. Why did they do it? And what did it do to the people they left behind?
80:28Listen to Death of an Artist on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
80:33Hey everybody, it's me, Debbie Kuma Bell. This season of my podcast, who's with me, I speak with Bruce Lee's daughter, Brandon
80:39Lee's sister, and my friend, Shannon Lee. Back to your initial point of stewarding my father's legacy and giving my energy to that.
80:46You're lending your life to stewarding somebody else's life.
80:48Listen to Who's With Me with Debbie Kuma Bell on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
80:54Do you love golf? If so, you should listen to 3-putt bogey.
80:58I'm Chuck Bryant from the Stuff You Should Know Podcast.
81:01And I'm Adam Pranica from a couple of embarrassing hit Star Trek podcasts.
81:04And each week on 3-putt bogey, we're going to get into the bunker and get to the bottom of what is just
81:10so alluring and frustrating about the most beautiful game in the world.
81:14So whether you're someone who pipes it on the driving range, but freezes up on the tee box.
81:19Or misses that 3-putt putt when everything's on the line.
81:22Whether to laugh about it with you on 3-putt bogey, a podcast about two mid-handicappers, one great shot, and the 3-putt that spoils it all.
81:29You can listen to it now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
81:34This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
