0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. Hello everybody, welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
0:09I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Andrew Erickson. This is part two of our Buys and Sells trade show that we do every week.
0:16If you missed part one, we hit on the running backs and the quarterbacks, so be sure to check that out on
0:22YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Today's part is the receivers and tight ends.
0:27Erickson, before we dive into the actual players that we've brought to the table here today, I wonder if you could give
0:33us some sort of high level macro thinking trade strategy advice at this point four weeks into the season.
0:39For me, when you're trying to make some of these deals with players that the consensus, the market is a little bit
0:45lower on, I think it's important to not make them the sole focus of a trade, right?
0:50When you're putting in a player that is O'Marrion Hampton, Stockdown, J.K.
0:54Dobbins, we talked about some of these players on the running back show, Bucky Irving.
0:58When you put these guys into trade, the other manager feels obligated to basically automatic reject because I don't want this player, who wants this player?
1:05So I think it's really important to, when you're trying to sell low on a player and just get them off of
1:12your roster just to try to piecemeal something else to improve your team.
1:16I think it's important to package those players, to not make them the focal point of the actual deal and add other elements to the negotiation.
1:23And that doesn't mean those players need to be super highly ranked or super lowly ranked or just you're putting in more ponies essentially to get a horse.
1:31I think it's just a matter of not distracting the other manager, but making them think a little bit more about, okay,
1:38well, even though this player I'm not super, super high on, they're also adding in a player that is kind of neutral, right?
1:44A player that is producing, not necessarily a superstar, but also not a player that the stock is way, way down on.
1:51So I think adding in something else to a package is always something that I recommend because a lot of times you
1:57get questions about like, who should I trade? Who do I need to get rid of?
2:02When I think about packaging is actually a key way to improve your roster and not enough people do it.
2:08I think because a lot of the things we get and a lot of conversations we have here, Wyrm, are one for
2:14one trades where it's like this guy for this guy, receiver versus receiver, running back versus running back.
2:19Those are really easy for people to work through and make it, okay, well, I'd rather have this receiver than this receiver.
2:26So automatic rejection, whereas wide receiver for running back.
2:28Okay, now it makes you think a little bit more about what your roster actually needs.
2:33Okay, you're packaging two players, but when you package two players, that means you open up a roster spot, which means you're
2:39going to add somebody off of waiver. So it's not really two for one, it's really two for one, and then you're
2:46going to add another player to your team. So I think that always think about how you can expand a trade a
2:52little bit more by using these types of package type of deals.
2:56Do you feel like anecdotally there are more trades that get done in your leagues that are two for one or three
3:02for one as opposed to one for one? Or do you feel like you see more one for one?
3:08Because I think the one for one, it's very easy for us to talk about a one for one, right?
3:13Because again, like you said, same reason that it's easy to sort of work through in your actual negotiation.
3:19Which player do I like more? Or maybe it's a little different if it's like a receiver for a running back, and
3:25then it becomes like, okay, it's maybe about need, even though it's only a one for one as opposed to which player
3:32do I rank higher relative to the position. But I wonder, I'm trying to think just in my years of playing if
3:38I have noticed more of one or the other.
3:41I feel like anecdotally there's more two for ones or three for ones.
3:45There's more package deals for trading up for the better player as opposed to a one for one.
3:50Actually, while you answer that, I'm going to message our data science team and see if they have that info on the
3:56synced leagues and if it's something they could access while we're on the show.
4:00Because I think that would be actually interesting to know if that is more common than what we're looking at here.
4:06Well, I can fill or bust in the meantime while you type out that message.
4:11I would say in my experience that one for one deals would actually be really easy to execute if everybody had rest of season rankings.
4:18Right. So I have rest of season rankings. So anyone that plays in my leagues could technically just look them up and
4:24just make any trade with me for a player that I have ranked higher than they have ranked.
4:30And we can make deals really, really easy that way.
4:33So I do think that from a mindset perspective, you can make one for one deals, especially when two managers agree like, oh, I think this guy's better.
4:41I think this guy's better. All right, then let's trade because that way we both win.
4:45Although I think that there's more of a group think with some of these one for one deals where it's not so
4:52obvious of who is or it is so obvious who the actual better player is.
4:56So I think that's something that's kind of interesting.
4:59But I do think that package deals are more of kind of an advanced technique in terms of making trades, because I
5:05think we would all say in a vacuum worm that you always want to be on the side of the deal with the best player.
5:12Yeah, that's usually like pretty common way to think about making trades.
5:16But even if you're sacrificing the worst player in a deal, if your starting roster gets better, you're winning that trade.
5:22And that goes back to one of the biggest things with trading is it's not about winning.
5:27It's about making your team better. And that's something that I'm always trying to be remember and kind of ground myself to,
5:33because even I get caught up in the I want to win this trade.
5:37I'm trying to get rid of this guy that's going to be terrible the rest of the season.
5:43I'm going to try to sneak one on one of my league mates.
5:46But at the end of the day, like there are trades where both teams can benefit.
5:51And then the other 10 teams in your league are the actual losers because you made the move that made two teams better.
5:58And that's also why Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, all the things on Fantasy Pros, all those tools are super helpful for giving
6:04you ideas of, okay, these are not just trades that you should make.
6:08These are trades that are going to help your team and other teams in your league to make your roster better.
6:14Because ultimately, that's the goal at the end of the day.
6:17It's not, oh, I want to win this trade.
6:20It's I want to win my league. And you do that by improving your roster, which starts with your starting lineup.
6:26So it's sort of the difference between like trading, like the way you see it get done.
6:31I, in my experience, is you're not offering roster depth for the better player.
6:35You're offering starting lineup depth for the better player.
6:38Like it can't be, hey, I'm going to give you three guys to improve your bench.
6:42It's, hey, you need a better RB2 and a better wide receiver too.
6:46Now I get the better RB1. Improving the starting lineup depth.
6:49It's still depth for, you know, the better starter.
6:52Obviously, otherwise the trade wouldn't go through. But it's starting depth as opposed to bench depth.
6:57And I think that's sort of the key distinction.
6:59Yeah. And I think too, it's a matter of when you feel like you have strong depth.
7:04That's when you want to trade your starters to upgrade one position.
7:08And then you move your roster depth up until you're starting lineup.
7:11Yeah. Before we get to the wide receivers to buy, if you want a chance to give your fantasy league the ultimate
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7:58Erickson, the request has been put out to our data science team.
8:01We'll see if they're able to scrape something together for us here by the time we get to the end of the show.
8:08So we might circle back to that because I do think that's interesting to see if it is really lopsided one way or the other.
8:15While we wait for that, wide receivers to buy.
8:18You are bringing a player to the table that I brought to the table a week ago.
8:23You're doubling down this week. Yeah, Worm, you really timed the market poorly on buying Parker Washington high after he puts up his...
8:30I mean, the one stinker that he has had basically since the middle of last season.
8:34So last week, Parker Washington, one catch, three targets for seven yards.
8:38Arguably his worst game in... Obviously his worst game this year.
8:41It was his first game since week 11 of last season that he was held under 40 receiving yards in a game
8:47that he didn't miss because of an injury. It also snapped a six game streak where he scored at least 13 fantasy
8:54points or more dating back to last season. So...
8:56But we will not be deterred, Worm, from buying Parker Washington because now you can actually buy a low on Parker Washington
9:03instead of buying high last week because, hey, now he's attainable, right?
9:06Because he's coming off this terrible, terrible game in a spot where the Bengals were down multiple nickel corners.
9:12You're thinking, shootout. I was all over the over in this game, which obviously, egg on my face.
9:17Total misread on the Jaguars and Bengals. Just a very underwhelming performance on both offensives in terms of getting a lot of that touchdown production.
9:24But the peripherals were still there aside from the targets.
9:27And he actually did have one long pass called back.
9:30He stepped out of bounds. It would have been a bigger gain.
9:34I think 39 yards would actually end up being just a seven yard gain.
9:38So the production actually could have been a little bit better for Parker Washington last week.
9:42He still played over 80% of the snaps. He actually led the Jaguars in routes run.
9:47So in terms of like a playing time perspective, like, yeah, the opportunity was still there.
9:52And the biggest thing too is this Bengals defense every year.
9:55You attack them in tight ends. And that's why Brenton Strange had a monster game against the Cincinnati Bengals because that's how
10:01this defense lines up and gets destroyed by opposing offenses.
10:04So look, Parker Washington over the middle of the field.
10:07That's why you thought he would probably get a little bit more action.
10:11But this was a game that it was a Brenton Strange game.
10:14I mean, a lot of the receivers didn't really do much.
10:18It wasn't Jacoby Myers having a big game. Brian Thomas Jr.
10:21is obviously the one that caught the touchdown, but that wasn't a blown coverage.
10:25So not worried about anybody stepping up in this offense to be the number one guy.
10:30I think it's still clearly Parker Washington. And one of the first things Liam Cohen said postgame Parker Washington, he's going to get plenty next week.
10:37We know coaches say a lot of things, but when you're the offensive play caller and the head coach and you say
10:44that, yeah, Parker Washington, yeah, he's going to get plenty next week.
10:47I'm buying that type of coach speak from Liam Cohen.
10:50So you have the Eagles on deck who are dealing with a bunch of injuries already.
10:55Quenyon Mitchell, we don't know if he's going to play.
10:57Cooper Dejean has regressed immensely from last year in terms of guarding in the slot.
11:02I know Debro is going to have a ton of stats this week in the primer about how Cooper Dejean has been
11:08absolutely getting cooked in the slot and why Parker Washington is like a screaming bounce back candidate after a disappointing week for
11:15Washington still ranks 11th in target share, 26 percent, 39 percent air yard share that ranks 12th among all players.
11:20So I think that he's a screaming bounce back candidate.
11:23And just the fact that he's coming off a bad game, a little crease of that buying window has been opened and
11:30I think you should take advantage of it. We talked about this on the, excuse me, short form five moves to make
11:36that we do video each week, me and Tara Roberts.
11:39We do that every Monday. Parker Washington was a buy from her last week and a buy again this week.
11:45So she also doubled down when we were doing that show as, hey, maybe we didn't quite time the market right last
11:51week, but this is just now a new opportunity.
11:54Let's say you didn't get a deal done last week or you didn't bother trying because you felt like he was unattainable
12:00and you didn't have the right pieces. Maybe now there's a little bit of a window here.
12:05Wide receiver 11 in the consensus rest season rankings.
12:08It's really important to remember that receiver is a volatile position week to week.
12:12Year to year, it can be steady if you're good enough, but week to week, like they're going to be up and
12:18downs unless you are JSN or 2021 Cooper Cup or, you know, one of these great receiver, like truly like best or
12:25second best receiver in football having an elite season.
12:27Unless you are that, there are going to be dud weeks for everybody sprinkled in throughout the season.
12:33It's okay. It's based on coverage, based on matchup, like you said, the tight ends for the Bengals.
12:38It would be such an overreaction to be lower or out on Parker Washington because of this.
12:43And I think you can get managers in your league to look at, hey, he has eight targets combined the last two games.
12:49Four catches combined the last two games. He's under 50 yards combined the last two games and take advantage of that.
12:56Now, having said that, I don't think you can get him for nothing, right?
13:00Obviously, people know that he is good. They have, if they listen to this show, they are well, or a lot of shows out there.
13:07We're not the only ones who are talking about this all off season and early this season.
13:12And anybody can easily look up rest of season rankings and see that, yeah, he's inside the top 12.
13:17But if there is a window there, do you have a type of player in mind that you could use to try to go after a Parker Washington?
13:26What is the difference in player that it would have cost a week ago versus today?
13:30The name that comes to mind, I'm not even sure I believe it, but I think the process would suggest that this
13:37is a good move to make would be Ted Aroa McMillan selling high after a primetime game against the Lions who they suck against.
13:44Their defense is so bad. And Jalen Colbert didn't play in that game, right?
13:48So it was basically the perfect storm for T-Mac to just put up this monster, monster performance.
13:53And he's also on a bye week this week.
13:55So I think that's an interesting, and this is one where I love T-Mac too, right?
14:00Like, don't get me wrong. Like, he was a player I drafted a ton of this season.
14:05So I have a lot of T-Mac, but I'm also looking at if I can flip T-Mac, get Parker Washington.
14:11I don't have to deal with T-Mac's bye week.
14:13I don't know. Maybe that's a move I would make.
14:16Maybe that's too much. And there's a, you can actually go cheaper than T-Mac who's higher in rest of season rankings.
14:22It's still Parker Washington. They're back to back. Of course.
14:25T-Mac is one spot behind Parker Washington. They're wide receiver 11 and 12.
14:29All right. Well, so then the rest of the season rankings then agree with me.
14:33Like, that's a move that you should make. Again, T-Mac is just, his stock is sky high right now.
14:39What about Christian Watson? Because that's somebody who was drafted in a similar range to Parker Washington in the summer.
14:45So there won't be a, they are both guys who are in that same range who then hit really big early.
14:51So there's not going to be this, like, any regret of, oh, well, I drafted this guy so much higher than Parker Washington.
14:57Like, because I do think there is an emotional attachment to draft capital.
15:01It's still this early in the season, whether that's right or wrong.
15:05And I would argue it's largely wrong. I think that does exist for a lot of people.
15:10Like, I can't give up a third round pick for a seventh just because of a hot first month of the season.
15:16I've heard similar things said to me in negotiations in the past.
15:20Christian Watson doesn't have that baggage in terms of a deal with Parker Washington.
15:24They've both been good. I know you talked about in the part one of this episode that you like Jordan Love as a buy.
15:31So that would coincide with Christian Watson. But what do you think about trading him for Parker Washington?
15:36By Monday night, the advice is in, your lineups are locked, and all you can do is watch.
15:41Maybe you're protecting a one-point lead. Maybe you need 12 out of your flex.
15:45Or maybe your opponent has one kicker left and now every field goal attempt feels personal.
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15:54Then settle in, enjoy restaurant-quality pizza from your own oven, and stay locked into the matchup through the final snap.
15:59You don't want to step away when one target, one touchdown, or one unnecessary point can decide your week.
16:05Buy DiGiorno pizza on the weekend run so you at least know Monday night dinner is covered.
16:10Rankings can guide you. Waivers can save you. But once the game starts, fantasy brings the chaos.
16:15Dinner doesn't have to. It's not delivery. It's DiGiorno.
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18:38I like that one, too. I think I do like Parker Washington's rest of the season outlook more than Christian Watson, even
18:45though Watson has been really, really good. So I think Parker Washington would definitely be my buy.
18:50I think I like that trade more. I will say, too, Watson did have a little bit of dip in his route percentage last week.
18:57Like, I don't want to have any grand takeaways because of it, just because we are in a situation where it was
19:03really hot in Tampa Bay, so they may have been just limiting his rep so he could get a break.
19:09But I think I like that move a lot.
19:12Agreed. Agreed. Before we get to the next wide receiver to buy, Jonathan from our data science team pulled through and got us this information on the trades.
19:20So shouts to Jonathan. They do an amazing job behind the scenes here at Fantasy Pros, this whole team, really.
19:26But he's the one who got this for me today.
19:29He said, Dynasty isn't that different, but these are redraft numbers.
19:32One-for-one trades, a little over a third of all trades, about 37%.
19:35Lopsided trades are about 34%. So two-for-one deals, three-for-two deals, three-for-one deals.
19:39Those are about 34% all added up. The remaining 29%, so about a third, are balanced but multiplayer.
19:44So like two-for-two, three-for-three, that sort of thing added up.
19:47He gave me a more detailed breakdown of the specifics of each of those.
19:51Like three-for-three is 6%, and two-for-two is 19%. But the basic high-level view is about a third are one-for-one.
19:57About a third are even in number of players but more than one player, so two-for-two, three-for-three.
20:02And then about a third are at all lopsided.
20:04Two-for-one, three-for-two, three-for-one, et cetera. The three-for-ones are actually only 2% of all trades.
20:08So it's usually a two-for-one or three-for-two in the more lopsided ones.
20:12But yeah, so it's about a third, a third, and a third.
20:15Interesting. Yeah, I think that tells me – that's actually surprising to me.
20:19I was expecting more of the imbalanced. I was expecting the imbalance to be a greater percentage than the others.
20:25But I think really the thing that we didn't talk about in that segment at the top of the show, Erickson, is
20:31the balanced but multiple players, like the two-for-two, the three-for-three.
20:34That's sort of the other version of this. That is not surprising to me that it is maybe more than we were talking about during that initial segment.
20:42Yeah. I like that. Shout-out to the team. Shouts again to the whole data science team, including Jonathan behind the scenes.
20:48All right. Let's get to my wide receiver, Tobai, which actually, speaking of Christian Watson, is his teammate, Matthew Golden.
20:54Golden has impressed me this year. Obviously, he's impressed a lot of people coming off of what he did the year before.
21:01He's coming off of not his best game, though.
21:03So just 21 yards on seven targets. He only cut three catches on those seven targets.
21:08He did get a touchdown, but just yardage-wise, it was easily his worst game of the season.
21:13Sort of a step down in targets from where he had been at the first three weeks of the season.
21:19And I just really think that Matthew Golden has taken a step this year, not into an elite status, but into just
21:25a good, quality, capable wide receiver status. And that's enough in this offense.
21:29Jane Reed out for the season. The offense is going to be in these shootouts, as you laid out when you were
21:35talking about Jordan Love in that segment in the first part of the show.
21:39And it's really him and Christian Watson. He has more targets than Christian Watson this season.
21:44And I'm not saying that I would rather have him than Watson, but the gap in ranking is not reflected in what the target share looks like.
21:52Matthew Golden, and he has actually jumped up a lot, even just since last night when I was putting this show sheet together.
21:58He was wide receiver 26 when I was putting this together.
22:02He's now wide receiver 21. So hopefully it's not too late to trade for him, because he did jump up a lot
22:08overnight in the consensus rest of season rankings. But that's still eight spots behind a guy, Christian Watson, that we all love,
22:14who's not getting targeted as much as he is.
22:17I don't really have much more to add other than, again, just like a guy who has taken a step forward into
22:23capable wide receiver, if not good wide receiver tier, and is in an offense that's going to need to throw a lot
22:30and doesn't have that many targets to throw to.
22:32I think that all kind of adds up to he's coming off of his worst game yardage-wise of the season, which is probably worth going after.
22:40Maybe a little bit less attainable, though, than I thought, since, again, when I put this together yesterday, he was five spots lower in the rankings.
22:48What do you think, Erickson? How attainable is Matthew Golden right now?
22:51He's more attainable than Christian Watson, right? And I think that's kind of like the key selling point here, where his price
22:58is being suppressed, not because of his own individual production.
23:00Because if you just put his numbers and put him on a team where now he becomes the number one receiver, he's
23:07just going to be more expensive than he is on Green Bay Packers, because we have this perception that he is the number two behind Christian Watson.
23:15But to your point, who has more targets this year?
23:18Matthew Golden. Who has more air yards this year?
23:20Matthew Golden. All the things that we're looking at in terms of projecting future performance, Matthew Golden is outdoing Christian Watson.
23:26And again, this isn't a very Christian Watson show or take.
23:30It's just a matter of looking at a potential market inefficiency where it's not about Watson being too high.
23:35It's about Matthew Golden probably being too low. So I agree, especially based on the upcoming schedule.
23:40I talked about Jordan Love as my quarterback to buy because the next four weeks are just salivating for this Packers.
23:46As a reminder, if you missed that first part, it's Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Panthers.
23:50Yeah. The next four. So, I mean, Golden has two games this year with 12 targets.
23:55Right. In the first four games. He's a second year player that is continuing to ascend.
23:59He's already taken a major leap since his first year.
24:02The team obviously trusts him. Jaden Reed's not coming back anytime soon.
24:06Tucker Kraft is always a potential to throw a wrench and how these three guys are deployed because it looks like he's starting to get ramped up.
24:14So maybe that's the only pushback on Matthew Golden and potential Christian Watson.
24:18But even with Kraft coming off his best game last week, Matthew Golden still had eight true targets because he had one
24:24that was a pass interference call that was actually at the goal line.
24:28So and even though he is coming off his worst game to date, he still got you the touchdown.
24:33So that's what the best players in fantasy do right when they have low games or they don't put up the yardage.
24:40They still find a way to find the end zone.
24:43And I don't think he's going to be shy of finding the end zone with these upcoming matchups.
24:48So Matthew Golden, definitely a great buy and good call by you, Worm.
24:52The end of the season is a really friendly schedule to the fantasy playoffs.
24:56Week 14, Buffalo. Week 15, Miami. Week 16, Chicago.
24:58Week 17, Houston, which we thought was going to be really tough.
25:02They haven't been tough so far this year. As you mentioned, as we talked about when you mentioned Jordan Love again in
25:08that other segment, unfortunately, week 18 is the second Lions game.
25:11So before we get off the Matthew Golden, someone asked me this in Discord and I commented back because it was a trade about Matthew Golden.
25:19I said, we'll talk about it on the show.
25:22So Worm, I haven't answered this question yet. I think I know where I'm leaning, but Matthew Golden or DJ Moore?
25:28Rest of season. That's a really good question with the injury stuff.
25:31If I was positive Moore was healthy, I would prefer DJ Moore.
25:35Rest of season, I've been just so encouraged by the usage when he's been on the field.
25:40And, you know, obviously as much as we might like Jordan Love, Josh Allen is on a different level there.
25:45Re-aggravating the shoulder injury, AC joint stuff. I'm just saying, you didn't put DJ Moore, your wide receiver, to buy here.
25:51Yeah. I mean, Matthew Golden, he was not ranked ahead in the rest of season rankings yesterday when I put the sheet together.
25:58He is now. It's now wide receiver 21. So yeah, I think that's a deal.
26:03Because again, look, this DJ Moore shoulder thing may not go away.
26:06Like we played a month and he's already hurt twice.
26:09Yes. So again, if you have any hesitation about DJ Moore, whereas do we have hesitation about Matthew Golden in any way?
26:15Just, okay, maybe Kraft gets more involved. But besides that, like Matthew Golden is also a player who can rip off big plays on small volume.
26:23So if he has a game where he doesn't see 12 targets, he can still be productive if he has one or two big plays.
26:30Whereas DJ Moore, is he a ticking time bomb with this offense, with his shoulder?
26:35We saw this AC joint injury again, I don't know what the grade is, but a couple years ago with CeeDee Lamb,
26:41and the dude was never the same the rest of the season.
26:44Like he was always playing through pain. Injury optimism is typically not your friend.
26:49Especially when you can get a player that is, we feel like it's wheels up for Matthew Golden.
26:54So I think, I mean, that's where I'm leaning.
26:56Can you co-assign so I can answer this person in Discord, this poor person, just waiting for me to answer their question?
27:03Here's what I would say. I think it's pretty fair.
27:06So I think, like, I think DJ Moore is better when healthy.
27:09There's question marks about the health that makes it pretty even.
27:12This is the type of trade where I would say, like, I think you can do it or not.
27:18Just which player do you want more? Do you want to be the person who is taking a chance on the ascending player who's healthy?
27:25Or do you want to take a chance on the established star with the better quarterback who's injured?
27:30A declining veteran who has a bum shoulder. It's like, hmm.
27:34Well, yeah, but like, he's not declining. I don't think he's declining when he's healthy.
27:38Like, I think he has looked quite good this year.
27:41Yeah, I mean, the point is, like, I think it's fair.
27:44So you, like, your personal preference is fine. Like, I wouldn't lose sleep at night if it went one way or the
27:50other because process-wise, I think this is a fair deal.
27:53So I think you can go either direction. I think all things equal, I'll just take the healthy guy.
27:59So Matthew Golden. Never wonder if you're winning a trade again.
28:02The Fantasy Pros Trade Analyzer instantly evaluates any deal based on your roster, scoring settings, and league, showing both the short and long-term impact.
28:09It even supports dynasty trades involving players and picks.
28:12Analyze your next deal at fantasypros.com slash analyzer or on the Fantasy Pros app.
28:16Erickson, who's your receiver to sell? I'm selling wide receiver Terry McLaurin for the Washington Commanders.
28:20Now, McLaurin was a surprise scratch last week before the London game against the Colts, dealing with a hamstring injury.
28:26He got ruled out really late in the week, so it was an injury that he picked up during practice.
28:32But the expectation is he's supposed to return this week alongside quarterback Jane Daniels, who is supposed to practice in full this week.
28:39He's going to wear a brace on his elbow, and the expectation is he's going to start on Sunday.
28:44So, that's painting the picture of an optimistic case for Terry McLaurin, who is also coming off his best game in Seattle
28:51or against the Seattle Seahawks in week three. But, reminder, Jane Daniels did not play in that game.
28:56And we've talked about this with McLaurin on a couple different shows.
28:59Maybe it's a ranking show or maybe it's one of these trade shows.
29:03But McLaurin, since the start of 2025, has actually been better with Marcus Mariota as his quarterback and not Jaden Daniels.
29:09If you look at, according to NextGenStats, points per game has gone up almost 12.
29:14Or it's his average points per game has been 11.9 with Marcus Mariota since the start of 2025.
29:19Up nearly six fantasy points per game than with Jane Daniels during that span.
29:23When you look at McLaurin and his target rate per route run this season, 22.4%.
29:27That ranks 40th among qualifying wide receivers. That's the same number as Brian Thomas Jr.
29:32Stevon Diggs has a 30% target rate per route run this season.
29:35That ranks 8th in the NFL. Antonio Williams, who's kind of showing a little bit here as a rookie wide receiver third
29:42round pick for the Commanders, 27% target rate per route run this season.
29:45Both higher than Terry McLaurin, who is a number one wide receiver, but he's not an alpha wide receiver that commands a 30% type of target share.
29:53That's just not his game. He wins with efficiency.
29:56He wins downfield. And in 2024, Jane Daniels rookie year, he won by scoring a lot of touchdowns.
30:01But that has not been the case since the start of 2025 with Terry.
30:05So I think right now he's still viewed as the number one receiver on this offense when that really has not been the case.
30:12I mean, Stephon Diggs was outproducing Terry McLaurin for the first couple of weeks of the season with Jane Daniels as his quarterback.
30:19So that really concerns me about what Terry McLaurin is going to do rest of season.
30:24There's always a chance to that Jane Daniels gets re-injured again, like he did last year when he came back from this elbow injury.
30:30But now you don't have the fail safe of going back to Marcus Mariota because he's also hurt dealing with a sprained
30:37MCL in his right knee, which he was also dealing with in the preseason, which caused him to miss some time.
30:43So I just think that there's a scenario where this could get really bad for McLaurin if Jane Daniels gets hurt again.
30:49And I just don't actually see the ceiling case with Terry and how he's been deployed in this offense with a lot
30:56more pass catchers to compete with, where he really hasn't risen to the occasion when Jane Daniels has been the quarterback, when
31:02Jane Daniels has been using guys like Diggs, like Antonio Williams.
31:05So for those reasons, that's why I'm looking to sell high on Terry McLaurin.
31:09He's also 31. Like, I know I'm not the first person to point out that he's like sneaky older than you would
31:16expect given his age when he came into the league.
31:19But like it is harder to recover from injuries when you get as you get older.
31:23So this is already a player who's, you know, missed a game this season.
31:28You know, Diggs has this we think of as this older guy who's like sort of on his last legs.
31:33Diggs is 32. McLaurin's 31. Now, it's really more like two years apart because McLaurin's already turned 31 this season.
31:39He had his birthday in September. Diggs' birthday is in November.
31:42So it's closer to two years apart than one.
31:45But still, like, gap's not that wide in terms of their age here.
31:49And there's the quarterback question marks that you laid out really well.
31:52Again, I just think, like, he checks a lot of the boxes that we look for in players to sell.
31:58It's performance with a backup quarterback. It's age. It's injury.
32:01It's the quality of the actual offense that he's in.
32:04And what do we expect out of it rest of season?
32:07I think it makes a ton of sense. The real question for me is, what do you think you're getting for a guy like McLaurin right now?
32:15I mean, he's one spot ahead of Emeka Agbuka in the rest of season rankings as an interesting one.
32:20He's one spot behind Jameson Williams. I know a guy that you've targeted in past versions of the show.
32:26He's three spots ahead of Cardinal Tate. I'd rather have Tate for sure coming off of a strong game.
32:32I mean, what sort of trade? Or maybe you're looking at a two-for-one or a running back.
32:36But like we talked earlier in the show. But what sort of trade are you looking for with McLaurin?
32:42We talked about this on a show, I think, a couple weeks.
32:45I think it was the extra point, myself and Welsh.
32:48And we had this heavy debate about Terry versus Jalen Coker rest of season and who we would rather have.
32:54And of course, I think it was right before the Seattle game when Terry went absolutely nuclear.
32:59But Jalen Coker, I think, still had a pretty good game that week, too.
33:03So I didn't feel so bad about it. I think you can just trade him right now for Jalen Coker, honestly.
33:09Like, which offense do you want? I mean, the Panthers' offense is kind of like turned into a wagon.
33:15They're just throwing the ball all across the yard.
33:17I know Coker didn't play in that game. Is that an overreaction to the Lions' defense, though?
33:22It'd be like, oh, we just saw it out primetime how fun this offense was.
33:27But Bryce Young was doing well before that match.
33:29Oh, for sure, for sure. But it's been a pretty nice run out in terms of defenses that he has faced so far.
33:36Like, Bears in week one. He got Detroit. The best defense they've played against the pass is the Browns at home in Cleveland.
33:43And that was their worst performance. So just in the back of my mind for the Panthers.
33:48Where's Terry the rest of season ranks? 31. Yeah, so he's pretty low already.
33:52And Coker's 29. Boom. There's your answer. Yeah. My wide receiver to sell is even lower.
33:56Wide receiver, 35. DK Metcalf. We can keep this one kind of short because it's really straightforward.
34:01I don't believe in the offense. I don't believe in Aaron Rodgers as a 42-year-old quarterback throughout this entire season.
34:07And DK Metcalf is coming off back-to-back weeks where one of them, he didn't have a lot of yards, but he caught a touchdown.
34:14And then this week he was, you know, actually had a very good game on Thursday night against the Browns.
34:20Nine targets, five catches, 115 yards. In Cleveland on a short week.
34:24Impressive performance. I think he'd take advantage of two good weeks in a row, at least in terms of, like, him providing something two weeks in a row.
34:32He did nothing the first two weeks of the season.
34:35And just kind of getting out while you can.
34:37I think this is a great example of with receivers, especially if it's a player you don't super believe in or you don't want to be involved with.
34:45Wait till they have the big game and then trade them.
34:49He had five catches, 115 yards. Maybe somebody will buy into, oh, hey, the offense is coming together.
34:54You know, 2.0 version of McCarthy and Rodgers together.
34:56They're figuring it out. Now that Metcalf had this big game, they're going to start throwing it in more.
35:02I don't believe that's the case. I don't think this offense is going to be that good this season.
35:07I want to get out and take advantage of back-to-back weeks of double-digit fantasy scoring from DK Metcalf and see what I can get for him.
35:15So it's not necessarily a sell low, but I'm not looking to – I don't need to sell high overall.
35:21I need to sell high relative to my expectations for him, and my expectations for him are low.
35:26So I think you can sell for not a ton and get out ahead.
35:30I agree with this take on selling DK Metcalf, even though he absolutely buried me because I took his under on that Thursday night game.
35:37And, dude, I was feeling good through the first three quarters.
35:41I was like, man, like, he's doing absolutely nothing.
35:43And then he obviously rips off a couple big plays because I finally put him in the slot against the Browns slot
35:50cornerback that was just getting absolutely cooked all night long.
35:53I think that this is a good long-term outlook on fading the Steelers offense.
35:57Just given the fact that Aaron Rodgers is an older quarterback, the oldest quarterback right now starting in the NFL, you don't
36:03want to bet on him improving as the season progresses.
36:06You look at this year in terms of how often Rodgers has been pressured.
36:10He's already taken 16 quarterback hits, and he's been pressured 40 times in four games.
36:14Because they're throwing a lot more, which is why we're seeing a little bit of a boon to DK Metcalf in the raw volume and target numbers.
36:22But that also comes with a scary floor where the more hits Rodgers takes, the dude is not getting healthier.
36:28And even in that game against the Browns, there were opportunities where he was getting banged around in the Patriots game.
36:34He was getting banged around and tossed around a lot.
36:37I will say that this matchup against Sauce Gardner in the Colts is going to be very telling about Metcalf because Sauce Gardner has been absolutely horrible.
36:45Over the last two games. But it would be so DK Metcalf of him to not be able to take advantage.
36:51Like the one time that he can actually face the number one cornerback that, oh, looks like actually Metcalf might have the advantage here.
36:58And he just gets absolutely blanketed by a player like Sauce, who obviously needs to play much better after giving up big
37:04plays to Traylon Burks, Deami Brown, Xavier Hutchinson over the last two weeks.
37:08Metcalf should produce here. But as we've seen with him and his style of play, extremely boomer bust, always picking up penalties.
37:15Because of the raw emotion that he plays with.
37:17So especially after a primetime game where he went over 100 yards, I am definitely co-signing on selling high on Metcalf.
37:23Carnell Tate is one spot ahead of Metcalf in the rest of season rankings.
37:27Consensus directly behind Metcalf, Roma Doonze, Stefan Diggs, Denzel Boston.
37:30I'm kind of interested in all those guys over Metcalf, honestly.
37:33I would trade him for any of those four names I just said.
37:37I agree. Let's go to your tight end to either buy or sell.
37:41Well, we're going to be buying Dalton Kincaid. So last week was horrible for Kincaid.
37:45Season lows, 31 snaps, 17 routes, two targets. He had one catch for seven yards.
37:50And the bill's lost. Go figure, right? They don't use Dalton Kincaid at all.
37:54And then they lose the game against the Patriots at home.
37:57Seven yards, second lowest since his rookie season in 2023.
38:00So it's not been two bad games in a row for Dalton Kincaid after it looked like, oh my god, he was
38:06the skeleton key to tight end in 2026 after just a monster week one and monster week two.
38:125.5 points week three. And then obviously just the one catch or the three catches, 45 yards, fumble.
38:17A very big mess for Kincaid over the last couple of games.
38:20But silver lining is still leads the bills with 15 catches.
38:24DJ Moore is still banged up. And we're not exactly sure whether this shoulder injury is going to be affecting him the rest of the season.
38:31And still averaging 3.2 yards per route run. So the fact that he only ran 17 routes last week, his efficiency is still off the charts.
38:39Because he wasn't playing enough to really register enough routes and basically just doing cardio.
38:43So 14.2 yards per target. That also leads all qualified tight ends.
38:47And Joe Brady in the postgame, this is according to the CodeSpeak Index.
38:50So shout out to Greg Brainhouse once again, talking about Dalton Kincaid and his Wii 4 deployment.
38:55And this cannot be replicated in good faith. Postgame presser in the Monday presser, he said, I got to be better.
39:01There's no reason Dalton Kincaid should have two targets.
39:04Again, head coach slash play caller. This is a good thing to buy balance back on.
39:09The ball needs to find Dalton Kincaid more a little bit more.
39:12In order for him to do that, he has to run more routes.
39:16And I've got to do a better job of getting that to him when the opportunities are there.
39:21Anytime Dalton comes away with two targets and one of them being on the last drive of the game, obviously I didn't do a good enough job.
39:29So head coach Joe Brady, also the Bills play caller.
39:32To me, that screams, hey, squeaky wheel is coming on Monday Night Football for Dalton Kincaid.
39:37Where is he ranked for your rest of the season?
39:39Because after those first two weeks, I saw people putting him as high as tight end four in some of their leagues
39:46for the rest of the season in some of the rankings.
39:49He's now dropped after these two games of a much less production to tight end seven.
39:54So he's behind Bowers, McBride, Kittle, Warren, Laporta, Kraft.
39:56Where is he for you? I feel like these tight end rankings are so reactionary to what we just saw.
40:02And I get that to an extent because we have to rank the guys based on what we just saw happen.
40:08But I mean, I think he's probably going to be my top five, right?
40:12Why can't he be the number one pass catcher for the Bills rest of the season?
40:17Especially if you are betting against DJ Moore and him staying healthy the rest of the way.
40:22I think that he could be a top five tight end rest of the season because he's a clear path to being the number one guy.
40:29He still leads the team in catches despite putting up back-to-back duds the last two weeks.
40:34That eruption against the Lions, obviously the Lions have been terrible against tight ends this year.
40:39But that was driven a lot by the fact that DJ Moore got hurt in that game.
40:44So just how bizarre this matchup was for Dalton Kincaid.
40:47Similar to the Parker Washington thing where when the head coach and play caller comes out and says, I messed up, I
40:53did not get my best player on the field, and we lost.
40:57You could argue that the Bills lost this game because Dalton Kincaid did not play enough.
41:01I mean, he had his worst game of the season and the Bills did not win the game.
41:06So I just think that this is a prime bounce-back opportunity for someone like Kincaid that maybe people are having second thoughts about.
41:13And to your point, as he falls in the rest of the season rankings, would not surprise me at all if we look up next week.
41:21Oh, wow, he's back in the top five, right?
41:23You got to skate where the puck's going to be, Worm.
41:27And that puck's going to be in the top five next week.
41:30Let's do some buy, sell, or hold trios here to wrap things up.
41:34Wide receiver. How about some bigger names? Jalen Waddell, Malik Neighbors, Devontae Adams.
41:38Three very talented receivers here, Erickson. Jalen Waddell, Malik Neighbors, Devontae Adams.
41:41Another reminder, not a ranking is what we're asking for, but sort of an assessment of their market value.
41:47Each one of these guys is going to be a buy, sell, or hold.
41:51I think I want to buy Malik Neighbors. Really impressed with what he did last week with a better version of Jameis Winston.
41:57And the talent, health is all going in the right direction.
42:01So I think he'd probably be my buy. I think my sell, in terms of what I could get for him, would probably be Waddell.
42:08And coming off another decent game. But the Broncos offense is still not in the trust tree in any way, shape, or form.
42:15Very inconsistent. Maybe Waddell, we'd my sell. And then I think Adams, you've got to hold, right?
42:19He's coming off a dud game. This doesn't make a lot of sense.
42:23Puka Nakua came back and was healthy. And Adams himself didn't play his best game.
42:28Matthew Stafford didn't play his best game. So I don't think it makes a lot of sense right now to sell Adams
42:34after he had these two monster games without Puka in the lineup.
42:38Puts up a dud when Puka comes back. And then you try to ship him off.
42:42Like that, to me, doesn't make a lot of sense.
42:45So I think Adams is going to have big games in the future at some point, just based on Rams offense and
42:51the fact that Puka could re-injure his spore attorney or whatever he's dealing with.
42:56So that's probably my look here on buying neighbors, holding Adams, and then selling high on Waddell after he scored last week.
43:02I'm going to disagree with you on this one.
43:05I think I'd rather sell neighbors. Coming off of a big game, he has been banged up a lot.
43:10You know, obviously had the injury last season and then just the own stuff he's been dealing with.
43:15I feel like every game we're getting notifications about, oh, he left the game holding his shoulder or whatever.
43:21And with the backup quarterback, I know Jameis Winston is like a fun backup quarterback.
43:25He's with the backup quarterback. I don't know what it's going to look like whenever J.J.
43:30McCarthy takes over and gets an opportunity, which I think is going to happen.
43:34So I think neighbors I'd like to sell coming off the big game and just the talent.
43:39And then like Adams versus Waddell I think is a really interesting one.
43:43I'm kind of interested in buying Adams just with the idea of like managers who have him are going to look at
43:49this and say, hey, we got our two really good weeks when Puka was out.
43:53Maybe like let's sell while we can still get something.
43:56I think if you buy low on Adams, it's still smart because I do think that like Puka is the type of
44:03guy that I wouldn't be surprised if he misses more time later in the season.
44:07And then you're going to be like really happy you have Adams on your team.
44:11Unfortunately, if I do that, then that would mean holding Waddell, which I don't really want to do.
44:17I just kind of want to get off that roller coaster to be perfectly honest.
44:21But yeah, that that between those two, I find myself a little more struggling, but I think I want to sell neighbors.
44:27I think I'm going to buy Josh Downs because he was one of my buys a couple of weeks ago and putting
44:34up a doubt against the Washington Commanders. Nobody wants to see that, but still running all the routes, still a full time player in that offense.
44:41So he will be my buy coming off a bad game.
44:45Still a believer in the talent. Don't know the timetable of Alec Pierce.
44:48Keenan Allen has already banged up and potentially face a suspension based on his DUI that he had in the offseason.
44:55So I'm not worried about the target competition. Still think the passing game will go through Josh Downs and that guys like
45:01Treadwell and Ashton Doolin aren't going to be nearly as involved moving forward rest of season for the Colts passing game.
45:07So Downs will be my buy. I, Ibuka was my sell last week and after putting up another dud, I see no
45:13other reason to change the course here with the Buccaneers.
45:16Just, I don't want these guys on my roster.
45:19This ship is taken on water. So continuing to fade the Bucs into oblivion.
45:23I guess, I guess there's always a point where it's like you can only fade a player.
45:28I only write a player as a sell for so many weeks and it's like, do they become a buy at some point?
45:35Yeah, I was just thinking that. So like that's something I'm trying to be like conscious of when I think about like sell, sell, sell.
45:42It's like, well, now they're just all free. Maybe we can consider buying, but for right now I will hold off on going with Ibuka.
45:49I guess. And then Rome is coming off a really good game.
45:53So, I mean, in terms of what you can actually get for the players, you'll get more for Rome.
45:58So I guess maybe that would make Ibuka hold in terms of like he's facing.
46:03Okay, so maybe I do change this a little bit.
46:06Maybe I hold Ibuka because I was going to sell him last week.
46:09He's facing Dallas this week. So maybe he can have a good game and then you can try to ship him off
46:16after he blows up against the Dallas Cowboys. Whereas Odunze, coming off of another big game for him or his best game of the season.
46:23Although I think that having Baygent was probably helpful for Roma Odunze, given that they've now onto their third quarterback.
46:29It seems like a Bears pass catcher. It changes every single week, which guy is going to be the most involved player.
46:35And Ben Johnson even hit on that where he talked about how every week guys have different roles and that's how the game plan is executed.
46:43So maybe this week won't be a big Roma Odunze game, although the Packers defense is not scaring me in any way, shape or form.
46:50So if I was looking for profit, I'd probably sell off Odunze just based on the rotating carousel of Bears pass catchers changing every single week.
46:58And you'll get more for him than Ibuka. But in terms of offenses I want to attach myself to, I still want Odunze rather than Ibuka.
47:05So if that makes, I don't know if that makes any sense.
47:09Like rest of the season, I'd rather have Odunze.
47:11It makes total sense. Again, this is not a ranking.
47:14This is sort of a market assessment. I do still think, I think I would hold Downs and actually buy Odunze.
47:20I think your logic for selling him makes all the sense in the world and I don't have a strong rebuttal to it.
47:27It's really just like, it's just a player that I just believe in as a talent and I've always liked Odunze.
47:33And so I want to believe that this is going to be the start of him getting back to what he was
47:39in the first four weeks of last season where he looked like a league winner potentially.
47:44I mean, he was awesome to start the year last year.
47:47And again, I talked about this when I was talking about DeAndre Swift and the running backs version of this show.
47:53Holy cow, this end of season schedule for the Bears is amazing.
47:57And I'll read it again for those who might have missed that episode.
48:01From week 12 on, through week 17, so through the fantasy championship, Detroit, Jacksonville, which is tough, but that's tougher against running backs than against receivers.
48:08Miami, Buffalo, Green Bay, Detroit again. Two games against the worst defense in football.
48:12The Bills defense is not good. The Miami defense is not good.
48:16The Green Bay's defense might be better once Michael Parsons is back, but it hasn't been good yet.
48:21And that might get to the point of the season where their season's over and the defense isn't trying as hard anymore.
48:27Like, that's one tough game against Jacksonville and five of the best matchups you can have from week 12 on.
48:33So I, and they don't have to face Minnesota again until week 18.
48:37So not a part of the fantasy season. So like the Bears to me, just thinking long-term, if I'm a three and
48:43one team or a four and O team, I really want to be buying anybody I can in this Bears offense.
48:50That includes a Dune Zane here. I'm very happy to, to sell a Buka and happy to hold Josh Downs.
48:55We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for checking out this receivers and tight ends version of the buy
49:02and sells show for the running back quarterback version.
49:04Be sure to check out that episode as well on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast.
49:10For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly. Thanks for tuning in.
49:12We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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49:31I'm Mimi Brown and every day on Front Page Podcast, I help you make sense of the stories shaping our world.
49:37Each day, I break down the biggest headlines. Canada's trade fight with the U.S.
49:41just escalated again and Americans could fill it in their wallets.
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49:52Listen to Front Page from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
49:59I'm Carrie Champion, and in this new season of Biggest Rivalries of All Time Podcast, we take you back to the very first rivalry of the WNBA.
50:06The Comets were the real deal. I mean, come on.
50:09The Liberty was just tough. Oh, God. The New York Liberty versus the Houston Comets.
50:14When we hit the floor, it was hot, heated fights, elbows, competition, trash talking.
50:18Who is the better team? People lie, but numbers don't.
50:21Listen to Biggest Rivalries of All Time on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
50:26I've been hearing for decades that the markets can solve climate change.
50:30Today, we have more incentives for market solutions than ever, and emissions are rising.
50:34On this season of Drilled Carbon Cowboys, the story of three market solutions colliding in one multinational boondoggle.
50:39You gotta give Bruce and the guys credit. They're Republican.
50:42They don't give a s*** of money. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
50:48Doorbell prankster that tormented German resident apartments turns out to be a slug.
50:51Ding dong! Hi, I'm Kurt Braunohler. And I'm Scotty Landis.
50:54They say no news is good news. But weird news?
50:57That's bananas. Every Tuesday on our podcast, Bananas, we find the strangest true stories from around the world and try to understand what the hell is going on.
51:05Man rescued by firefighters after getting stuck in a phone booth trying to order a kebab.
51:10Man, you did it. You wowed me. We cover important discoveries, questionable decisions, and animals behaving exactly as badly as you know you want them to.
51:18China's first corgi police dog's in trouble again. Uh-oh, what'd he do this time?
51:22He stole a sausage from a child. Classic dog stuff.
51:25That's it. With more than 400 episodes, there's always more weird news waiting for you on Bananas.
51:30Listen to Bananas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
51:34This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.