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0:27Hello everybody! Welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:30I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Andrew Erickson on this Tuesday morning.
0:33We are talking some buys and sells, quarterbacks and running backs edition.
0:36The show is split into two parts, so for the quarterbacks and running backs, it's this part.
0:41If you're looking for the wide receivers and tight ends for our buys and sells, it'll be part two coming out shortly wherever you get your podcasts.
0:48Also on YouTube. Erickson, we are going to start with Monday Night Football.
0:52Quick recap here. The Falcons are a wagon with Michael Penix as quarterback.
0:56They've scored something like 80-ish points in the two games with him and like 16 points in the two games without him.
1:02Primetime both the last two weeks. They're in primetime again next week on Sunday Night Football against the Ravens.
1:07Uh, Bijan has been just utterly dominant, uh, since Penix took over as quarterback.
1:11He was already good without him, but ridiculous with him on the field.
1:15Brian Robinson scoring three touchdowns last night. Jake Lennon continues to be the number one target in this offense with Penix.
1:21He had 96 yards. Jahan Dotson got a touchdown.
1:23Um, a blowout win for the Falcons 45 to 24 and it wasn't even that close.
1:28That was what the Saints sort of doing a meaningless drive at the end of the game just to get up to as close as it was.
1:35What were your takeaways from this one? Brian Robinson has to be one of the, if not the best handcuff in all of fantasy football.
1:42And he's not even just like a handcuff. He's like a handcuff plus because in certain deeper formats, you could be flexing Brian Robinson Jr.
1:50during some of these bi-weeks. He's had a pretty steady role throughout the season.
1:53So obviously over the last two weeks when the Falcons offense has been an absolute juggernaut, we've seen Brian Robinson really pop off.
2:00But throughout the entire season, they have been trying to get him more involved to kind of keep B.
2:05John Robinson healthy and upright the entire season. I think they actually pan to B.
2:09John Robinson on the sideline. And it's like, I want to go in the game, but Brian Robinson is in the game.
2:16And it's not because they don't believe in B.
2:18John or anything like that. It's because they're trying to keep B.
2:22John healthy for the entire season. So I actually like the way that they're deploying B.
2:26John and Brian Robinson together. The B. Robinson backfield duo, which again, very confusing at times, but really also kind of fun that they have both B.
2:34Robinson. Both guys are playing really, really well. So I think that Brian Robinson should be, he's not already rostered in leagues.
2:40He needs to be rostered all across the board.
2:42And he's a player that you could consider starting as a flex because of how much involvement he's actually had in all
2:49four games for the Falcons, even before Michael Penix came back to be the starting quarterback.
2:53They were both top eight running backs this week.
2:56I mean, he's a handcuff with benefits, right? Like he is a handcuff, but you also, you also have the opportunity to start him in a pinch.
3:03And then you might get a game like this where he ends up as a top eight running back.
3:09Last two weeks, Brian Robinson leads all running backs with 0.33 EPA per carry 58% success rate ranks third overall over the last two weeks.
3:16So we know Brian Robinson, not the most dynamic running back in the NFL, but someone that when called upon and a
3:22good opportunity and good situation, which is clearly the case here in Atlanta.
3:26Yeah. He can deliver some fantasy worthwhile performance. I'm trying to think of who would even be close to him in the handcuff rankings right now.
3:33He feels like number one with a bullet. Like Corm, probably the next guy.
3:37Corm for sure. That's a good one. I'm that those feel like kind of a tear of their own.
3:42You wouldn't really have too much hesitation. I think obviously you have to look at the talent gap between B.
3:48John and Brian. It's obviously very vast, but Brian Robinson is taking advantage of his opportunities.
3:52And the only thing to note to about Atlanta again, basically all positives at well, except for Kyle Pitts, although he is
3:58coming off his best game of the season. His role in this offense is just totally nuked again, going back to the broadcast.
4:05They pinned him on the sideline asking the coaches, why is Kyle Pitts only played one snap so far?
4:10And why are they dialing up plays for Austin Hooper on the opening drive?
4:14So yeah, you can't trust Kyle Pitts. I was wrong about that last week, even though he did improve and have his best game.
4:21It's not a player that you can have any faith in starting for fantasy football purposes.
4:25And I think to Drake London, the fact that he was able to put almost 100 receiving yards when his quarterback only threw 20 times.
4:33That's just a testament to how dialed in Pennix and London are.
4:36He is a elite fantasy wide receiver when he has Michael Pennix under center.
4:40So really good for Drake London. We know exactly who we're starting in this Falcons team.
4:44Jake Matthews did get banged up the offensive tackle on his 199th consecutive start.
4:48I mean, that dude's gotta be pushing for starting next week, even on a short week to get hit to that 200 mark.
4:55Jake Matthews warrior. He'll be out there. Well, the state side.
4:58I mean, I mentioned it's kind of that meaningless drive at the end of the game.
5:02Falcons were up 45, 17 saints with like two minutes left.
5:05Still, we're trying to drive down the field. A lot of a limps off at one point in that final drive.
5:11So somebody keep an eye on. He's been absolutely amazing this year.
5:15Eight catches, 116 yards last night. They lay 54 yards in a touchdown, rewarding everybody who started him in a flex spot.
5:21Alvin Kamara, two touchdowns. He only had 23 yards, seven carries, 3.3 yards for carry, but he did get in the end zone twice.
5:28So he rewards you as well. I'm not sure how interested we are in him going forward.
5:32Anything on the Saints side of this one? The Olave injury.
5:36Kellen Moore said that he's not concerned about it, but something worth monitoring.
5:39Also, two, Tyler Shuck kept like holding his hand and looking at it in weird ways.
5:44And he was getting some treatment on the sideline.
5:46I actually noticed it really early in the game where he was coming off the sideline.
5:51He kind of looked at his hand. He kind of did that like flick of the wrist thing.
5:56So I don't know if that had any impact on how the Saints offense performed.
6:00It was kind of what we've seen from them most of the season where they don't do a lot in the first half.
6:07They come out in the second half, guns blazing and just throwing the ball over the yard.
6:11Do you know how many pass attempts Tyler Shuck has this season?
6:15Or an enormous number. I don't know what it is.
6:18I was going to say 190 was my guess.
6:20I was going to go too high, but still that's ludicrous.
6:23180 through four games. Obviously that overtime game in week one really is part of that recipe.
6:28But still this team is past first, past second, past third.
6:31They cannot run the football you just talked about with Camara, a very lackluster rushing stat line.
6:36Kendrick Miller lost a fumble in this game. They don't have a Chan for at least three more weeks due to his hamstring injury.
6:43So I think it's gonna be more of the same thing with Camara.
6:46He's kind of like a back end fantasy RB two in terms of, okay, if they're throwing the ball time, we know
6:52that he can catch passes at backfield check. And in this particular match, we did score two touchdowns.
6:57So the Saints offense at least is moving the football and putting them into positions to score.
7:02One thing to note though, they are playing the Minnesota Vikings in week five.
7:06So this might be a slap of reality for the saints team in terms of, we may not get the garbage time
7:12type of production against a defense like Minnesota, especially in a game where you don't necessarily think Minnesota's offense may run away with this type of contest.
7:20Cause that's just not how Minnesota plays. So in a game that could be more lower scoring, we may not get the
7:26fun saints off and especially off a short week.
7:29Some of their guys banged up. That's one thing to just keep in mind, even though it is a home game.
7:35So I don't think I have anything else to add there.
7:38Juwan Johnson continues to be really productive. Six of eight targets, 59 yards didn't score, but still very productive day for Juwan Johnson.
7:44And I think that's really it from the saints.
7:47I just hoping Olave this knee thing is not anything too big.
7:50The only other thing I want to mention, this isn't on the saints side, just from this game, Bijan one catch for two yards.
7:57He's only had four total targets in the two games of the Panics.
8:01He still is good enough on the ground that you are getting elite fantasy production, but he is one of the best
8:07pass catching running backs in the NFL. There haven't really been utilizing him that way since Panics came back.
8:12So just let me keep in mind in terms of the overall.
8:15So it'll get nobody's complaining that Bijan Robinson on their team, but just wanted to know.
8:20It's funny. I was at, I had a softball game last night and my friend goes, dude, Bijan has three touchdowns already.
8:26And I was like, are you sure? None of the kids.
8:29He was just looking at like ESPN app and it said B and he goes, oh no, one of them is BR dot Robinson.
8:36Nevermind. I would say that Bijan Robinson's targets and receptions will not be as high with Panics as it would have been with like Tua, for example.
8:44Like I know that was something that we talked about, obviously when we didn't know who the quarterback was going to be.
8:50We didn't know who Panics when he would play.
8:52So I don't know if you were ever going to see a massive boon for Bijan's receiving like we did in the
8:59beginning of the season with Cooper Rush and like with Tua in the projections.
9:02But a lot of it else has to do with game script, right?
9:06Because they've been able to get up on these last few teams that they faced between the Packers and the Saints.
9:12So they haven't really needed him in that capacity.
9:15They're only throwing the ball to one guy, Drake London, sometimes Kyle Pitts.
9:18But I would expect Bijan to get back into the targets in more games that are heavily contested.
9:23The Falcons are playing the Ravens next week. So Saturday Night Football, I was actually going to bring this up because we
9:30talked on the Betting Pros show where we do the look ahead lines this week, Erickson, about this game.
9:35It had been Ravens minus six before everything on Sunday.
9:38Then that moved down to minus three, three and a half when Lamar left the game at the ankle.
9:43And we were like saying we didn't think Lamar was going to play.
9:47Last night, I made a mental note to myself of if the Falcons are still getting a field goal or close to
9:53it, I bet them in the morning. I woke up this morning.
9:56The Falcons are now laying two and a half.
9:59So that swung a lot. It seems really unlikely that Lamar is going to play.
10:03And they have looked so good in prime time.
10:06Maybe it's an opportunity to kind of like fade the momentum here.
10:09It's actually not minus three. It was two and a half.
10:12It's now a field goal. So this line continues to move pretty aggressively.
10:16It's moved nine points since Lamar got hurt and also the Falcons looking better.
10:20So I don't expect Lamar in this game. I even still kind of like laying the field goal.
10:25Honestly, Falcons at home against Tyler Huntley. You're definitely drinking the juice.
10:28The all the hype for the Atlanta Falcons who have been underdogs in last of their two games in prime time.
10:34So now that everybody's on board, this is usually the time.
10:37Well, now time to fade the Atlanta Falcons. It's some of that.
10:40It's a lot of like Lamar has been amazing this year and has been covering up.
10:45Like the defense is not as good as I thought it was going to be in like right away with Jesse Minter.
10:51He's still taking time to come together. Tyler Huntley is a fine backup, but he is a backup.
10:56The offensive line has not been good in pass protection at all.
11:00Lamar has made up for a lot of that.
11:02I just like this is a totally Lamar based take by me.
11:06Like he is everything to the Ravens. Do you think that Tyler Huntley can have success?
11:10In this new offense with Declan Doyle, that's one thing that I've been thinking about a lot when I think about this
11:16matchup where we've obviously seen Declan Doyle and Lamar and Zay Flowers really take off in this new offensive scheme.
11:22Is Tyler Huntley going to fall in that same type of bucket?
11:25Because we know that he obviously filled in well with Lamar and the Greg Roman offense.
11:30But does Tyler Huntley have the quote unquote goods to match what Lamar can do at a 75% clip, 80% clip?
11:36I mean, obviously, you know Tyler Huntley a little bit more than I do.
11:40Or is this a matter of we need to just kind of get back to the basics?
11:44I don't think so. He's not like Lamar matches so well with Doyle because he is very comfortable under center and he's very comfortable throwing over the middle.
11:52Those aren't two words I would use to describe Tyler Huntley just from having watched him a lot the last few years.
11:58He is a totally capable backup. He will give them a puncher's chance.
12:02But I don't think it will be a fact similar to what we see out of Lamar at all.
12:07I think the way the Ravens win this game is the defense forces a couple turnovers against an offense that has been running really hot.
12:14And that Derrick Henry has a big game, which is not going to be easy.
12:19But I think that's the path here. The Derrick Henry thing is, to me, they just have to keep feeding him and
12:25feeding him and feeding him no matter what. Because there's going to be opportunities where, especially with this compromised interior offensive line,
12:31nobody's been able to run the ball at all on Atlanta.
12:34Look at the last two games. I mean, they've played teams that can't run the football, but...
12:39They've also been way ahead the last couple of games, too.
12:42So that is obviously the biggest factor. Because I know I looked at some of the splits with Derrick Henry and Tyler Huntley.
12:49Just looking at last year, the yardage, attempts, everything goes up.
12:52Because that's what offenses do when you lose Lamar Jackson.
12:54What do you do? You just give Derrick Henry the ball 30 times, right?
12:58And you just... Yeah. That's how we're going to go down.
13:01And I definitely do not want to argue against that because I think that is a good strategy.
13:07But if Derrick Henry doesn't rip off one of those big runs and just breaks five or six tackles, then you're going
13:13to see a lot of negative runs that go nowhere because the Falcons are going to be keying in on, OK, we've got to stop the king.
13:20Yeah. All right. Let's get into the running backs to buys where we'll start on this episode.
13:25Erickson, who's your running back that you're looking to buy right now?
13:29I'm going to the tippy top fantasy RB1 territory with Ashton Gentry running back for the Las Vegas Raiders.
13:34So kind of a lackluster opening month to Gentty in this Raiders offense.
13:38If you look at last week, 15 carries for 58 yards.
13:41But the receiving production has been pretty strong to start the year.
13:44I think that's really been kind of booing the majority of his fantasy RB1 or fringe RB1 production.
13:49Six of eight targets last week for 68 yards, right around a 15% target share.
13:53The snaps are also really, really strong. He had 84% in week three, 67% in week four.
13:58Now he has missed some time throughout a couple of these games dealing with some minor injuries on the side, but nothing
14:04that has been too drastic where we're concerned about his long-term availability.
14:08The big concern has obviously been the lack of efficiency on the ground.
14:11He is fifth worst in EPA per rush this season.
14:14The run game for the Raiders really has not taken off.
14:17Even when Mike Washington has been there, he hasn't really been very consistent on a down-to-down basis.
14:22Now he's been the guy that's ripped off a couple of big runs, and that's just a matter of, hey, when he
14:28got those attempts, the lanes kind of just opened up for Mike Washington in a way that they haven't opened up quite yet for Ashton Gentry.
14:36So this is really a bet on the positive touchdown regression is going to come for Ashton Gentry because the volume is
14:42there, the receiving is there, and maybe you disagree, but I think the talent is there with Ashton Gentry.
14:47He's still forcing a lot of missed tackles because that is exactly what he did at Boise State.
14:52It's what he did last year as a rookie, and I think that this situation is still significantly better than it was last year.
14:59We just haven't quite seen that reflected in the fantasy numbers.
15:02So 78 carries to start the year. That is fifth most in the NFL.
15:06Zero rushing touchdowns. He has seven goal line carries.
15:08Again, zero rushing touchdowns. He is fantasy's RB5 and expected fantasy points per game.
15:12So the usage is all there for the taking with Gentry.
15:15It's just a matter of finding the end zone, which I think that he will do because this Raiders offense has been good.
15:22It's not like he's stuck on a bottom dwelling offense where this team can't score in a similar way that we were
15:28concerned about A-chan and his fantasy value being on the Miami Dolphins.
15:32This team's never going to be in the red zone.
15:34It's just that Kirk Cousins has thrown double digit touchdowns in every single game he's played this season.
15:3992% of the Raiders touchdowns have been through the air.
15:42That is the second highest clip in the NFL trailing only the Green Bay Packers.
15:46So I think that this is just a good bet on a player that is attainable, but has shown an elite type of ceiling.
15:53And those players are hard to come by, especially at the running back position in fantasy.
15:58So nothing that the schedule really screams out to me where, oh, it's like such a slate where it's like Lions, Panthers, Bears, something like that.
16:05It's Patriots this week, Bills, Rams, Jets. Again, it's not like the schedule is the thing that moves the needle for me.
16:11It's more about the Ashton Jente player, the workload, and the fact that I think that he's going to find the end zone sooner rather than later.
16:19Yeah. Kirk has 11 touchdowns, by the way, through four games, 3-3-3-2.
16:22And Jente has not run for what he's caught to back in week one, kind of like you were laid.
16:28Yeah. Yeah. It's both the touchdown regression and also just like you, I would imagine that he will get more efficient as it goes on.
16:35I don't think he's going to be averaging. I don't know what it is across the three games, but in the last
16:41three games, it's been 2.3, 2.9, 3.9 yards per carry.
16:44Under four, three straight weeks, two of those under three doesn't, considering the offensive line improvements they made this season, considering the
16:50fact that the offense is moving the ball quite well, and that Jente is a talented player.
16:55I do agree with you on that totally, and then you have sort of the floor of the pass catching to boost it.
17:01He is RB9 in the consensus rest of season rankings updated for this week on fantasypros.com.
17:06He has been the last three weeks RB26, RB20, RB15.
17:09So he has not been in RB1, that's in half PPR scoring, in any of the last three weeks, but he has
17:15been at worst in RB26, still kind of not totally cratering a given week for you.
17:19Is there a name you have in mind, maybe a receiver or a different running back you would try to trade to acquire Jente right now?
17:27Because I actually think this is a great call.
17:29It's funny, when I was putting together my names, I did mine before you this week, and I couldn't really land on
17:35a running back to buy that I loved. And then as soon as you put this into the sheet, I was kind of kicking myself.
17:42That's actually a really great call. I wish I had thought of that one.
17:46I don't tend to look inside the top 10, because I'm like, oh, those guys are going to be a little tougher to acquire.
17:53But I think this is a great shot where you're kind of buying him at the floor.
17:58And I think there is definitely more ceiling to come later this season if this offense continues to move the ball.
18:04Yeah, whenever I'm looking to buy the elite talent, it's just a matter of, is this guy attainable or not?
18:09And I think the fact that Jente has been lukewarm at best, I think, to start the year, at least entertains the
18:16idea that a manager may be willing to part ways with Ashton Jente if you give him an elite wide receiver in
18:22exchange, because we all know that it's much tougher to come by elite running backs.
18:26So I think that a wide receiver for running back trade would make a lot of sense.
18:31A package for a player might make sense for Ashton Jente.
18:34I'm curious, who are the names right behind Ashton Jente in the rest of season running back rankings?
18:39I mean, I'm assuming that Barkley's injured. So he's someone that you probably can't deal with.
18:44The four names immediately following Jente are Chase Brown, Javante Williams, Jeremiah Love, Chuba Hubbard.
18:48I was going to ask about Javante, if that's somebody, because people who are needing to win now, it's, oh, I'll get this touchdown equity.
18:55Javante's been productive for a year and a half now.
18:58Would you trade Javante to acquire Jente if you had to do a one-for-one running back trade?
19:02Trade the guy that can't stop scoring touchdowns to the guy that can't find the end zone.
19:07That feels like, it's like two ships passing in the night.
19:10You're really just trying to time exactly when to jump off one to jump onto the other.
19:15I don't know if I would pull the trigger on that.
19:18I think that the other name that you mentioned, so it wasn't Chase Brown.
19:22Who was the other guy you mentioned? Jeremiah Love and Chuba Hubbard are the next two.
19:27I think Love would probably be the name because he's one of these really polarizing guys after what happened in week four
19:33with the way that he was being deployed. I don't know if you saw the quotes were about how he was talking
19:39about how the other running backs were more ready than he was to play in week four.
19:44And that's why they got more snaps and opportunities than he did.
19:47Just really, really weird from Love. I mean, it was really more about a player talking about team first.
19:52They were in a position. I'm not 100% potentially with my ankle injury that I suffered in the preseason.
19:58So it's a really long quote. It's going to be in my beyond the waiver wire piece.
20:03So I would recommend people go just check out that out.
20:06It's live on the site. When you guys are listening or watching this video, there's more in depth about my thoughts on Jeremiah Love.
20:12But if you want to just kind of get out of that business and not deal with the fluctuation of Love's usage
20:19and just get Gentty, who we know is a workhorse, that's the move I would make.
20:23I got to say, though, Eric, if you're going to trade away Love, I might wait till after this week since they get the Lions.
20:30I kind of want to not trade away somebody right before the Lions game.
20:34But again, it goes into the other managers know that, too.
20:37So that's why you can get a lot more Love.
20:40I think you can still trade Jeremiah Love irrespective of schedule based on name and talent.
20:45He's still ranked inside the top 12 in our moment.
20:47He doesn't strike me as a player that you need to highlight the upcoming friendly matchup in order to move him.
20:53But maybe I'm wrong about that. Let's go to my running back to buy here, Erickson.
20:58I didn't go inside the top 12. I did go with a bigger name inside the top 15.
21:03DeAndre Swift of the Bears. He obviously had the fumble going on in week four.
21:07And then Kamanungai had a really big game. Did he get banged up?
21:11He got up kind of slowly right after the fumble.
21:14And I know there was some discussion online of was it slightly injury related or was it like he was benched because
21:20he fumbled and Kamanungai was running really well. Either way, I still do think Swift will get more opportunities than Mnungai when
21:26both are healthy and capable of playing. I don't think Ben Johnson is going to overreact to a fumble in terms of multiple weeks.
21:33Like maybe within the game, a guy gets sort of soft bench.
21:36But I think moving forward, I wouldn't expect that.
21:39I still expect this to be a really quality running game.
21:42Just any time Ben Johnson is coaching the team, I expect a really high level running game.
21:47And DeAndre Swift, like even with the fumble and getting banged up a little in that game, still had 17 touches, right?
21:53He hit 18 carries week one, 16 carries plus six catches or excuse me, six targets in week two, 20 carries in
21:59week three, 15 and then two in week four.
22:01Like he's still getting a ton of work. I think there's going to be a lot of touchdowns to come, especially once Caleb is back.
22:08And like Ben Johnson knows him as a running back.
22:11And I think he is attainable to your point.
22:14Like he's coming off of this game where Kyle Mnungai like way outshined him.
22:18He had the fumble, maybe it was banged up a little.
22:21To me, he is worth targeting. And then you get into the schedule.
22:25This is more long-term schedule than near. So maybe he's a really good target if you are a team that's three and
22:31one or four and oh in your league right now.
22:34Man, his finish to the season. Week 12 on.
22:36It's Detroit, Jacksonville, which is tough. Miami, Buffalo, Green Bay, Detroit again.
22:39That's one tough matchup. And five, as of right now, really cakewalk matchups for this really offense as a whole.
22:45I think all bears are really interesting for that reason.
22:48But DeAndre Swift in particular feels acquirable given the game that he's coming off of.
22:52And I think he's really going to pan out late in the season.
22:56I still think he'll be helpful, obviously, in the short term as well.
22:59But long term, I think he's a really enticing buy.
23:02Kyle Mnungai also dealing with a thumb injury. So whether Ben Johnson did soft bench DeAndre Swift, which I think that he did.
23:09I don't think that it was an injury that kept Swift out, at least reading the TV from what Ben Johnson has
23:15said in some of his postgame pressers, his Monday presser, that it really was more about, hey, we got to pick the football, right?
23:22That's the most important thing is ball security. And when you're turning the ball over, we're going to look in a different direction.
23:28And Kyle Mnungai was obviously cooking in that game.
23:31The fact the guy had 30 carries, just like absolute monster performance.
23:34But has this thumb injury. So is it going to be Roshon Johnson that they go to?
23:39No, they would go back to DeAndre Swift. So I do think that this is a good opportunity to buy.
23:44Some of these coaches have really long leashes with their veterans in terms of fumbling.
23:49Just look at the Patriots with Mike Vrabel and Romandre Stevenson.
23:52The dude fumbles in one game, gets benched. They go back to him the next week.
23:56So it's a brand new week. Players have new roles.
23:59This isn't the first time Swift has fumbled this season.
24:02But still, when you touch the ball so many times, you're going to put the ball on the ground every once in a while.
24:09So I do think that this, I agree, is an interesting buy low opportunity for Swift because we know what his upside
24:15is in this Bears offense that loves to run the football.
24:18You have the Packers matchup this week. Would you look?
24:21I mean, any matchup is good for the Bears, honestly.
24:24So I know you outlined how good it is at the end of the season.
24:28But it's like the Bears can run on anybody.
24:30When your offense is so elite at rushing the football, it doesn't matter what defense you're facing.
24:35So I think that this is a sharp opportunity, especially if this Monunga injury is a little bit more long lasting.
24:41We saw Jordan Mason go on injured reserve because of a thumb injury.
24:45So yeah, I like this one. I think if you can trade any kind of receiver depth for Swift, that's really smart.
24:51The top 15 running backs to me, and he's 14th in rest of the season rankings, right behind him is Bashal Tootin.
24:57After that, it gets dicey. Saquon, who has the injury stuff.
25:00Jalen Warren, I don't know how good that offense is going to be long term.
25:04Brees Hall is injured right now. Now, Bucky is a really interesting person to think about maybe going on the other side of this.
25:11Marion Hampton, obviously this Chargers offense is broken. Scadaboo, Jenkins, Montgomery.
25:14Like none of those names are incredibly exciting right now, either because of injury or because of the offense they're in.
25:20So if you can trade into a running back who's inside that top 15 right now, really any of them I think is probably a smart bet.
25:28And Swift happens to be the one that I'm highlighting.
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27:50All right, Erickson, who's your running back to sell?
27:53Yeah, running backs to sell is a lot tougher.
27:55Because as I look across the fantasy landscape in teams that I have that are struggling at running back and teams that
28:01I have that are good at running back, I don't really want to trade away my running backs because they're going down like flies here.
28:09But a particular running back that I am lower on, just not optimistic about his rest season outlook, is going to be J.K.
28:15Dobbins. So I fought for J.K. Dobbins on the ranking show last week.
28:19And of course, I was totally wrong about it.
28:21The fact that he did not score, the reason he got basically game scripted because the Denver Broncos were behind in this game against the 49ers.
28:29So I thought, again, their defensive line got lit up the week before.
28:32So I figured there would be an opportunity for J.K.
28:35Dobbins. But I acknowledge that he has not been efficient this season.
28:38And basically that just continued. If you look at Dobbins this year, he ranked second worst in rushing success rate, 26%.
28:44He's basically almost a zero every single week in the passing game.
28:48He first got involved for basically the first time all year this past week against the 49ers.
28:52But still, it was a game where every running back in the passing game got targeted.
28:57R.J. Harvey had 10 catches. So naturally, some of the targets to the running backs with Bo Nix just checking the ball
29:03down, seemingly on every single play, eventually went Dobbins' way.
29:06He has not topped 49 rushing yards in any single game this season.
29:10He's coming off a season low in snap share at 31%.
29:13And this is healthy J.K. Dobbins that we're getting for four weeks.
29:16Like the caveat with Dobbins has always been, well, when he's healthy, he's going to produce.
29:21And that was clear last year. It was clear the year before that.
29:24But now it's a matter of maybe all these injuries are starting to pile up and sap away some of his expulsiveness
29:30and his ability to break tackles and rip off big plays because that has been non-existent so far with J.K.
29:36Dobbins in this offense. And I don't think it's really like the offensive line's problem, right?
29:41The Denver Broncos are known for having a pretty good offensive line.
29:44They're not dealing with any major injuries. It's just a matter of he's not seeing or running through the holes and creating
29:50yardage for this ground game to kind of take off here.
29:53So I think it's sooner rather than later that the Broncos look for other alternatives to try to get more guys involved.
29:59I know that Jonah Coleman obviously was placed on injured reserve, but he's going to come back at some point.
30:05They like getting Tyler Bidet involved in RJ Harvey.
30:08Why not give this guy more opportunities? Again, 10 targets last week, catching all 10.
30:12He had seven carries for 25 yards. So even though J.K.
30:15Dobbins was the leading rusher and ball carrier, it's just rushing between the 20s, not finding the end zone, even though he
30:21is the red zone guy that they tend to use.
30:24Just not excited about J.K. Dobbins and someone that I really feel is not something you can bank on rest of season.
30:30I know that this matchup next week against the Chargers, maybe that's a bounce back spot where you can at least find the end zone.
30:37So maybe you wait another week to try to pull the trigger after he scores.
30:41But if I can just deal him now for a team that really needs a running back, I think I'm willing to
30:48move on from the Broncos veteran that we know also is a big injury risk rest of season.
30:53Yeah, I knew it was bad for Dobbins. I actually didn't realize it was this bad, man.
30:57Like his finishes at the position this season are be 49, 47, 37 and 39.
31:02He's basically finishing with the number of yards he's having in these games because he's not doing anything else.
31:07It is has been really, really bad. I mean, his fantasy point total on the season is under 20 or something.
31:13It's close to it. I'm looking at the game log.
31:16So I'm trying to do some quick math. But it's it's yeah, it's 19.2 fantasy points per game.
31:21This fantasy points this season, not even for a game.
31:24It's really bad is my ultimate point. You laid out like some of the yardage numbers and the efficiency and everything.
31:30Yeah, this is like a clear sell low, in my opinion, like you just kind of get what you can and move on.
31:36I'm looking at some of the names in the running back rankings, like Ollie Gordon's one spot behind him.
31:41RJ Harvey's actually one spot ahead of him. Jordan Mason, who we talked about last week as a buy low coming back from IR soon.
31:48Alvin Kamara got a couple touchdowns this week. Braylon Allen, you know, has the starting job for now.
31:53Janarian Price for whenever he comes back from IR.
31:56Woody Marks, Emmitt Johnson, like these are some of the names where I would like just rather take the upside swing, honestly,
32:02because I we are seeing that there's maybe not as much upside with Dobbins.
32:06The one thing I would say is, do you have any interest in holding Dobbins until because I think we a lot
32:12of people are thinking that Sean Payton is going to take back over play calling at some point.
32:17Do you think that could sort of change the usage and just the offense runs better and he gets more scoring opportunities at that point?
32:24Or are you not even interested in holding out for that?
32:28I do think that's probably the path where Dobbins does return on some of your investment in him from the draft season.
32:34But is he going to be around then, though?
32:36Like, that's the thing that you have to remember with Dobbins is every single year this guy gets banged up and misses time.
32:43So even if you wait it out and you think, OK, well, Sean Payton's eventually going to take over the play calling
32:49duties and his office is going to start to cook again.
32:52Is Dobbins even the running back that you want anymore in the Broncos backfield at that point whenever that does happen?
32:58So, again, someone that you need to be actively trying to move off of.
33:02If you can't get a good deal, then obviously you hold and you wait for him to find the end zone because,
33:08again, like he does get a lot of red zone opportunities.
33:11So when the Broncos offense does get an advantageous situation, I mean, they're playing the Chargers this week.
33:16So that's a situation where you could see, OK, maybe they can score a little bit more than they did in week four against the 49ers.
33:24And then you sell off of him. But package him up.
33:27Try to upgrade your running back position with one of these by-low running backs.
33:31Or trade him for a player that I could Jordan Mason, right?
33:34Who has more upside rest of season? I think it's clearly Jordan Mason when he comes back.
33:39I mean, even some of these backup players where if J.K.
33:42Dobbins is someone that is sitting on your bench, you don't feel confident about starting him in any way.
33:47And what situation is going to happen? Well, oh, RJ Harvard goes down.
33:51J.K. Dobbins is a smash now. Like, no. Like, his role doesn't change in the offense.
33:55So just a very capped ceiling type of player that I just I don't really want on a lot of my rosters the rest of the way.
34:03My running back to sell, Bucky Irving. He's ranked a bit higher, obviously.
34:07He's RB19. I did just mention that I feel like outside of the top 15, it gets kind of, you know, difficult
34:13to be too enthusiastic about any of these players.
34:15And he falls into that category. The other thing with Bucky is just like, I just don't want to be a part of this team.
34:22Like the Bucks. I just feel like if you can, he's getting the workload volume that we're interested in.
34:28The last three weeks, he has 17 carries, 15 carries, 16 carries.
34:31It hasn't been super efficient. Last two weeks have been under four yards per carry.
34:35One of those games even coming against the Packers, which are, you know, not a good defense.
34:40And this just feels like the year from hell for Tampa Bay right now.
34:44Um, and, and I, I would rather just trade away on the big name.
34:48He's had big seasons before the big workload and somebody there's probably a manager in your league who's willing to say, well,
34:54the Bucks are going to run the ball a lot for as long as Baker's out and eventually Baker will come back and all this stuff.
35:02And it'll look better again. I don't want to take that chance.
35:05I don't want to be out on that limb.
35:07I don't want to be riding that roller coaster.
35:10I don't want Bucky Irving on my team. I would rather trade him.
35:14Well, I still think you can get something for him.
35:16If you have a couple of more weeks of him getting totally nuked in the passing game, which he did this week,
35:23still not scoring touchdowns because the offense is broken.
35:25I think that value is going to go continue to go down.
35:29And this is the right time to try to sell based on the few factors and the pillars of his game that you can still sell on.
35:36But that passing game used to Jerickson. I mean, it was giving him, he wasn't getting yardage, but he was getting targets.
35:42Uh, in the first few weeks, he did get yardage in week one, but those first three weeks, he was averaging five targets a game.
35:49He had zero targets in the first game with Jalen Daniels.
35:52Like if the passing game is gone and there's not going to be a lot of touchdowns to come by, and it's
35:59not like he's uber efficient on the ground as it is, man, that really starts to add up to a pretty useless
36:05low ceiling player who still ranked inside the top 20 in consensus rest of season rankings.
36:09The thing with Bucky that's tough is because he's seeing enough work, you're still going to feel obligated to start him.
36:15But is it going to be situations where you're starting him and then he's actually hurting your lineup?
36:20Because the worst thing in the world is not actually guys missing games.
36:24It's starting players that underperform every single week. That is the worst case scenario.
36:28And that's where Bucky kind of falls in because he's probably never going to fall outside the top 24 in weekly rankings just because of his projected volume.
36:36Even last week, he had 16 carries, but to your point, zero targets.
36:39And I think that's somewhat sticky when you look at Jalen Daniels is a mobile rookie quarterback.
36:44And we see this all the time with mobile quarterbacks that they target running backs less in the passing game because they're
36:50just more likely to just take off and run than get to their check down option because it's just much easier for them to process that.
36:58So I agree here. You didn't even mention two or maybe you didn't.
37:01I just wasn't paying attention. Sean Tucker is back.
37:04And all of the red zone carries that he is going to take in this offense.
37:08He had been getting talked up a lot by Todd Bowles leading up to week four.
37:13Shout out to the coach. Beak index. Greg Branos does great work over there.
37:17He was really on this where, dude, no. Sean Tucker is going to have a role in week four.
37:22And that's exactly what happened. He had three carries and they were all in the red zone.
37:27So so like that's just another thing that really comes out of a thorn in the side of a player like Bucky
37:33Irving, even a good matchup, at least perceived good matchup this week against the Dallas Cowboys.
37:38You have to be really worried about all these Buccaneers pieces rest of season.
37:42And there's no guarantee when when Baker Mayfield comes back that he is in any type of form where you're feeling good
37:48about it because it's one of these weird thumb hand injuries where you have to regain strength in your throwing hand.
37:54So Baker was already playing terrible before he got hurt.
37:57And he's coming back off an injury in an offense that is totally broken.
38:01I mean, all they do is move back Bucca around the formation for nothing.
38:04Like Bucca is like doing all this cardio and not getting the ball whatsoever because he's motioning from left to the right to the slot to the outside.
38:12And it does literally nothing because everyone's like, oh, yeah, window dressing.
38:16That's what this is. And we're not going to be fooled by the Zach Robinson offense.
38:20So I yeah, no, no disagreements for me with Bucky.
38:23I think too, I think that strategy with trying to move him because I think that everybody is aware that stock down the Buccaneers are taking on water.
38:31The ship is going down. I think that the best approach with him is you need to trade him to the team that needs running backs the most.
38:39Like that's where you're going to get the most benefit because a running back needy team that maybe like this week, I
38:45know, for example, I was in a tough spot where I had to start team on Claiborne in a league at my
38:51RB2 slot because I just had literally no bodies available at RB2.
38:55I just started playing Corum in an RB2 spot.
38:57Like that's the manager you want to find and target with Bucky Irving as maybe there's maybe there's a Kenneth Walker manager
39:03who doesn't have a good second running back. And now Walker's on by this week, something like that.
39:08So that's how you do it because those managers will kind of convince themselves.
39:12Well, I really need an RB2. And this is clearly an upgrade from what I already have.
39:17And they'll kind of convince themselves. Maybe it won't be that bad.
39:21He did get 16 carries last week. And that's how you do it.
39:24I think anytime you try to make a trade and you are immediately providing an upgrade in their starting lineup where there's
39:30like no debate, I think that's where you can actually get a strong return on a player that is kind of stocked down.
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40:44Terms apply. All right, let's go to the quarterback to either buy or sell.
40:48Erickson, what direction are you going with the quarterback this week?
40:51I'm going to buy the Packers quarterback, Jordan Love.
40:54I wish I could sell his offensive line, but that's not going to change.
40:58I'm buying the schedule for the Green Bay Packers rest of season.
41:01And that's why Jordan Love is the player that I want.
41:04Maybe not rest of season, but for the next four weeks, because I mean, this is just so salivating for potential shootouts with the Green Bay Packers.
41:12The latest report we got was Micah Parsons is not going to come back until November.
41:16So I still think of this defense is not going to be in any way stopping opposing offenses.
41:21You have the Packers, excuse me, have the Bears at home this week.
41:25That can be a high scoring game. You have the Dallas Cowboys in week six, week seven, you have the Detroit Lions.
41:31In week eight, you have the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night football.
41:35So right now, the only thing that's working for the Packers is Jordan Love throwing the ball to Christian Watson, Tucker Craft and Matthew Golden.
41:42Like that is the offense. They can't run the football for any type of production between their three headed backfield.
41:47That is a total mess. Josh Jacobs, probably who knows when he's coming back, if he's coming back at all.
41:53So I like Jordan Love as a quarterback to buy.
41:56Where's he ranked for the rest of season? He's in my top 15.
41:59I think that he's probably a fringe fantasy QB one.
42:02I mean, he's coming off a modest game last week against the Buccaneers, but I just think right now the Packers are
42:08so dependent on passing the football that even if Love has not been as efficient as he has been in years past
42:14where he has been not throwing the ball nearly as much.
42:18The Packers are in a situation right now where they're just playing in a lot of shootouts.
42:22And as I listed out that schedule, that's kind of what I project this offense to look like and environments to look like for the next month.
42:30It's a real shame that his second Lions game is in week 18.
42:34We're not going to get two of those in the fantasy season, which is a huge bummer.
42:38Um, the problem for me with Love and co-signing this is the offensive line.
42:42It's just, it's in, again, I keep using this word because it was on the tweet about the commanders this summer.
42:48It's inoperable. It is just not a functioning offensive line right now.
42:52And even if they're in a lot of shootouts, if he's just under unbelievable pressure every single game because of the environment,
42:58like I love Jordan Love throwing to Golden and Watson and Kraft, I love the player Jordan Love.
43:03I think he's a good quarterback. I think he's a top 10-ish quarterback in the NFL.
43:07Like I'm a believer in Jordan Love, but if the offensive line is that bad, we've seen this on other teams in the past.
43:14Like the fastest path to an NFL team disappointing in any given season, surprisingly, is an offensive line that completely craps the
43:20bed and just absolutely nukes every other player's fantasy value.
43:23And I'm really worried that that's not getting fixed this season and that it is past the point of no return of
43:29there being value in going after any Packers player.
43:32Like I still think that Golden and Watson are valuable to go after because they're getting going to get so much volume.
43:38And even if some of those throws are off target because of the pressure or whatever, that will still add up.
43:44But as the quarterback, and again, I was a real buyer of Love this offseason at the O-line.
43:49It's just that's the one thing that scares me.
43:52So that would be the only reason I wouldn't be emphatically agreeing with you here.
43:56Let's do some buy, sell, or hold trios here.
43:58Erickson at running back. Travion Henderson, Kyle Monungay, Aaron Jones.
44:01Again, Travion Henderson, Kyle Monungay, Aaron Jones. As a reminder, not a ranking.
44:05It's just assigning market value. So one of these guys is a buy.
44:08One of them is a sell. One of them's a hold.
44:12I am going to sell Aaron Jones. We talked about this last week where I just think that the type of work
44:18bill that he is getting right now is unsustainable for the rest of the season.
44:22They're clearly using him in this workhorse role because they know they're going to get Jordan Mason back in a couple of weeks.
44:28He can come back as early as week seven after the Minnesota Vikings by week.
44:33So I think that you're going to see this backfield kind of flip on its head and they're going to lean on
44:39Jordan Mason a ton and you're going to see Aaron Jones role reduced dramatically.
44:43So right now, if you don't need Aaron Jones in your lineup and he's like your RB3 or flex play and you
44:49can cash out for something better in the rest of season rankings, I think Aaron Jones would be the sharp sell here.
44:55Not to say that he's not going to produce because that's what he's been doing.
44:59But I think when you're just looking long-term for an older running back, it just, he's the prototypical quintessential sell high type of player.
45:06So that's the move there. I would say for a man guy, he's got to be the hold for me.
45:12Just someone that I think dealing with a thumb injury.
45:15So there's question marks about that, but just plays in a wagon of an offense.
45:19They can run the ball so effectively and he has Ben Johnson's trust.
45:23So also I'll really like common. I got the player, right?
45:26She's a really good player. Maybe I understood he could be a sell high to coming off 30 carries, but I just
45:32don't think that he's ever viewed so highly in the market where you're going to get strong return for common.
45:37I think he's still viewed as the number two running back on the Bears offense.
45:42Even the last week we saw those roles kind of flip after Swift fumbled.
45:46So he'll be my hold. And then Trayvon Henderson will be my buy just because again, it was another week where Ramondre Stevenson was the lead back.
45:53Even though Henderson did out carry Stevenson, it was the lack of the high value touches where Ramondre is catching passes and seeing targets, not Trayvon Henderson.
46:01Ramondre seeing the goal line usage, not Trayvon Henderson.
46:03Trayvon Henderson kind of just continues to be just underutilized.
46:06If he doesn't rip off that big explosive run, then he's going to be a bust in your fantasy lineup more often than not.
46:13But as a stash bench player, I do think that he becomes a buy.
46:17And one thing to note too, this was something that kind of went under the radar, but something that I was kind
46:23of reading and listening about with some of these people that follow the Patriots really closely.
46:28Ramondre looked like he got banged up his knee very, very late into that game against the Buffalo Bills.
46:33We saw last year what Henderson did when Stevenson missed time.
46:36He was an absolute monster. So Henderson, to me, people are sick of him.
46:40People get tired of the Stevenson splits, but he's still a really talented player.
46:44And if you can just squeeze him on your bench, can you flip JK Dobbins to get Trayvon Henderson or JK Dobbins plus to get Trayvon Henderson?
46:51That's what I would do because I would much rather have Henderson on my bench than JK Dobbins.
46:57I think it would need to be plus. I mean, there's like an almost 10 spot gap in the rankings between them.
47:03It's RB 25, RB 33. I don't know that it needs to be a big plus, but I think there would need to be a plus.
47:10What about Aaron Jones and Henderson? Because it was Aaron Jones for Henderson, you're saying?
47:14Yeah. So he said, okay, yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think you could do that for sure.
47:19Especially if you have a manager that just needs running back help this week.
47:23Again, find that one and three manager. Find the own four manager who has Kenneth Walker on by or Chuba Hubbard on
47:29by and is like, I need a running back.
47:32That's where I would target somebody with Aaron Jones.
47:34The other trio will do Braylon Allen, Zach Charbonnet, some optimism there, and Blake Corum.
47:39So Braylon Allen, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, three very different players.
47:42Who is your buy? Who is your sell? Who is your hold?
47:45I still want to buy Blake Corum because I think that he has a contingent upside if anything were to happen to Kyron.
47:51And although the last couple of weeks have not been as good for him in terms of having flex appeal, to start
47:58the year, he was really, really good. So I'll buy Blake Corum.
48:01Braylon Allen is going to be a hold for me.
48:04Absolute workhorse role last week. I think he was up to 94% of the Jets offensive snaps.
48:09The Jets just had the worst run out that you could think of for an offense when they ran 32 plays.
48:15So you just can't be productive in any way, shape, or form.
48:18So I think that the counting stats are going to be held against a lot of these Jets players entering week five
48:24when I don't think that's fair to them because their defenses could not get off the field.
48:29The Bears played bully ball the entire game. So do not be low on Braylon Allen.
48:33The role was absolutely elite. So he's a hold for me.
48:36And I guess Zach Charbonnet is going to be my sell.
48:40It feels weird to look at him as a sell type of player because he's coming off an injury, but I think
48:46I'd rather kind of sell on the hope that he's going to come back and become this absolute monster and wagon of
48:52a player when he was not explosive before his injury.
48:55Coming off a season ending injury, I guess it's touchdown or bust with Zach Charbonnet, but I don't know what type of
49:01role he's going to be in because it seems like they're just happy to use a mix of different guys between Emmanuel
49:07Wilson and Gorge Helani and Janarian Price coming back.
49:10And then they just signed Joe Mixon. So again, the Joe Mixon thing, I say tongue in cheek because I really don't
49:16think that he has anything left in the tank whatsoever after missing all of last year with his mysterious foot injury.
49:22But I think if someone's really hyped up on Zach Charbonnet coming back, he's someone that you obviously got for free in the offseason.
49:29Maybe right before he gets activated, you can flip him off the hype in the hope that he's going to return to form.
49:35That's probably the move I would make. Charbonnet was the one that I was most interested in seeing what you were going
49:41to say here because you have Price underperforming and on IR.
49:44You have Mixon getting signed. You have the general optimism about Charbonnet coming back.
49:48You have the fact that this is a good team that has a whole running back.
49:53I just think there's a lot of factors at play that I was really curious if you wanted to sort of take
49:59advantage of some of the optimism around the injury recovery right now to sell or if you're like, no, if I have
50:05him on IR, I want to hold him and sort of take advantage of this runway that he's now going to have
50:11whenever he gets back on the field. So he was the one that I wanted to make sure I included him in
50:18one of these because I wanted to get your take on that.
50:21I think the thing with Charbonnet too, it's a situation where if you can sell on the idea of Zach Charbonnet scoring
50:27all these touchdowns, being the Seahawks RB1 and not the potential reality that Zach Charbonnet wasn't that good last year in terms
50:33of being explosive and seeing this guy coming off a season.
50:36Again, I could be totally wrong and he could look great.
50:40That's what they're saying in camp. Oh, he looks so great.
50:43But if he doesn't look great, it's, oh man, I should have cashed out when the hope and optimism was at its
50:49peak, especially before the player even hits the field.
50:51Anytime you can get value when the guys actually aren't playing football, I think that's usually an opportunity to strike.
50:57Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific fantasy trade questions.
51:03We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3 p.m.
51:06Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to youtube.com slash fantasy pros, subscribe and click the bell to be notified
51:12of all of our weekly live streams. We'll wrap up this part of the episode here for the receivers and tight ends.
51:18Be sure to check out part two on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast.
51:23For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly. Thanks for tuning in.
51:25We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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