0:00This is an iHeartPodcasts. Guaranteed Human. Hello everybody, welcome into FantasyPros.
0:03I'm Ryan Warmly joined by Tara Roberts as I am every Monday here.
0:07We are looking ahead already to week five with five moves to make ahead of the week here.
0:13It can be buys, it can be sells, it can be shops, it can be ads.
0:18We've got a mix of everything for us here today.
0:21Tara, how are you doing? How are you feeling about the season?
0:24Four weeks in, we're a month into the season.
0:27Four weeks in, kind of scary. No, it's not that bad.
0:31It's just the injuries have been outrageous. The second you believe in something like I got pumped up for Marcus Mariota against
0:37the Indianapolis defense and then that was over real quick.
0:40So yes, it's just been like a wild year in terms of these injuries coming at us.
0:45But you know, outside of that, everything's okay. Just don't talk about college football with me because, you know, my Tigers continue to embarrass me, but that's okay.
0:54At least I'm not betting on them. I'm a Maryland fan, okay?
0:58A week and a half ago, my team lost 54 to three and they still haven't fired our coach.
1:03So I don't want to hear anything about college football.
1:07Yeah, you know, it's funny, like we were doing the tailgate today and I was kind of messaging the guys.
1:13You know, there's fewer injuries than we had the last couple of weeks.
1:17Still, the first three are Lamar Jackson, Jamar Chase, Saquon Barkley, just like three of the biggest names.
1:22It's just like, you can't escape it. It's been an absolute nightmare this season.
1:26A reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
1:32You can also navigate to our rest of season rankings there as well.
1:36They get updated throughout the week. So I'll be looking at when I reference a rest of season ranking on the show
1:43today, just the ones that have been updated as of this morning.
1:47So it is up to date as we can have for you here.
1:51Let's dive right in. Tara, looks like you're starting us off with a bye.
1:55I am. We are a bye happy mood this week because people, people need players, right?
2:00Nobody is saying, yeah, I want to sell off all my players.
2:04No, they're hoarding them. So we're buying, trying to snatch up ones that we can get at lower value.
2:09And Matthew Golden is one of those guys for me.
2:12I think the perception of the Packers is definitely still very low, despite their little victory, barely just little victory over Tampa Bay.
2:19It's still low enough to where Golden is excellent value for the upside that he has.
2:24Was genuinely an underwhelming performance in week four from Jordan Love, although technically speaking, it was his most efficient, ironically.
2:30But Golden continues to shine. And now after this week, he is now out targeting Christian Watson.
2:36He scored a minimum of 9.8 fantasy points in PPR in every game he's played in this season.
2:41And that specific performance of the 9.8 fantasy points was in week two against the Jets.
2:46That was the weather affected game. The Packers upcoming schedule in general leans a little bit more pass friendly.
2:52And the games that aren't specifically pass friendly are games where they play teams where they should be chasing points.
2:58That's the formula. Chasing points is the key because the Packers defense is truly struggling.
3:02They got more injuries and it just continues to pile up.
3:06It guarantees a certain level of volume, meaning that the vast majority of Jordan Love's games will have a minimum of 30 attempts.
3:13They no longer have, unfortunately, Jaden Reed. The target funnel is just three deep, specifically with Watson, Golden and Tucker Craft, who finally came on.
3:20Thank God for that one. So even with the run game struggles and the offensive line struggles, they're still locked in volume.
3:27That is making Golden constantly in the picture at wide receiver two.
3:31One of the only downsides of Matthew Golden is that his second matchup against the Lions is in week 18.
3:37So we won't get that as part of the fantasy season, the primo defensive matchup there.
3:42Yeah, I mean, Golden has so impressed me this season, just generally speaking.
3:46Obviously coming off his worst performance, at least in terms of yardage, he did have the touchdown.
3:51Where should he be ranked rest of season two?
3:54In the updated rest of season rankings, he's wide receiver 26.
3:57He's sandwiched by guys like Michael Wilson and Jameson Williams.
4:00Does that feel right to you? Is that too high, too low?
4:04What do you think? I think it's just right.
4:07Maybe a little bit conservative as we continue to have these guys that are dealing with injuries like Vlad McConkie, DJ Moore,
4:13who, you know, if all things were good and healthy and no issues, you know, he would be prioritizing them.
4:19But they have their own issues that they're working through.
4:22So, yeah, I think it's a very appropriate level.
4:25I think he's a little bit undervalued. So I think that leans towards going out and making the buy.
4:31If you had those guys like, let's say, DJ Moore or Vlad McConkie and you were 1-3 or 0-4 after this week,
4:38you're like, I need to win now. I can't wait on figuring out this injury stuff.
4:43Would you trade them straight up for Golden? Because they are ranked ahead of him in consensus, but not by much.
4:49I would for Vlad McConkie. I can't make that push right now for DJ Moore just because at least he has the
4:56quarterback with zero issues in the right environment to have those boom games.
5:00So just a good high ceiling makes it so, OK, I can hold and pause on that and see what we're working with in terms of this injury.
5:08But the game or the team situation for the Chargers makes it so, yeah, I would make that flip on McConkie.
5:15Speaking of the Chargers, the next player you want to talk about?
5:18Yeah, we're going to buy low on Amari and Hampton.
5:21I know some people might feel a certain type of way about this, but, I mean, let's talk it through, right?
5:28It's funny because we had a question on the Sunday morning show with me and Chris Welsh, and someone asked, who is a buy low running back?
5:36And we kind of responded like, I mean, there's not really a ton of options to buy low right now just because
5:43the market is so destitute and the majority of the buy low guys are in bad situations.
5:48Like, what are you going to do? Buy low on, you know, speaking of the Packers, are we going to buy low
5:55on a Marshawn Lloyd or Caleb Johnson? And no, you just don't want to dip into that.
6:00But if you have to target one that is a buy low, it is Amari and Hampton.
6:05As you know, Ryan, I do a ton of start, sit, Q&A every single week on a wide variety of social channels for you guys.
6:13And so when I say that people are looking to sell certain players, I'm not pulling it out of thin air.
6:19There are, you know, certain names that just get repeated over and over and over again that shows a really clear pattern
6:26in terms of how the general market of your typical leagues are operating, right?
6:30There are a lot of sharp legs where people would say, you know, this is not going to happen.
6:36But there's a lot of leagues where you might be able to get him at a very, very reasonable price.
6:42And that's the key. We're going reasonable price here.
6:45We're buying extremely low because of the panic and the fear that everyone has with this clearly split backfield.
6:50And I'm not saying that it's going to change into all of a sudden Amari and Hampton thriving and being the clear
6:57three down back and Keaton Mitchell just goes away and there's no Kamani Vidal.
7:01But there's a certain level of baked in volume that Amari and Hampton gets to where you can feel comfortable ranking him
7:08on a weekly basis at a minimum of a low in RB2 because he's getting volume.
7:13He is the lead back. Unfortunately, the whole check down situation is a bus, but he still has the opportunity for touchdowns as well.
7:20He's not being completely sniped in the red zone.
7:23So, yeah, it's not the greatest situation in the world, but he can still provide you a good solid double digit fantasy points.
7:30The problem is, is that it's workable volume. But where you drafted him at, it's not workable volume.
7:36You're just losing significantly on a weekly basis. And that fantasy manager just might not want to deal with it.
7:42His value is so, so low right now. And people want out and they can't afford to drop him because you know
7:48that you can't just drop an RB1 no matter how destitute the situation is.
7:53So I think it's worth trying to buy low.
7:55And the biggest factor why it's worth it is, again, you know, a certain level of job security.
8:01Love Keaton Mitchell. Stealing touches, absolutely. But he physically can't steal Amari and Hampton's entire job.
8:06He's a higher end version of Jonathan Brooks and all the promise in the world, right?
8:11But none of the physical guarantee, unfortunately. He's never had over 60 attempts in a single season.
8:16Hopefully he can, you know, thrive this season and push forward.
8:19But he's never played a fully healthy season. And he's never had a game with more than 11 carries in a single game.
8:26So he's a great complement to Amari and Hampton, but not a guy that can fully take his job.
8:32So Hampton has a certain level of guarantee to his workload to where if you're really struggling and the person in your
8:39league is just so frustrated with Amari and Hampton and just wants to move on and upgrade in another position, maybe they've
8:45gotten to the point where they're starting someone else that they drafted as an RB3 and they just feel more comfortable going that direction and benching Hampton.
8:54Maybe Hampton can serve a better purpose on your team in your starting lineup as a low-end RB2.
8:59Do you think we're going to see at some point this season the Chargers offense coalesce and not live up to the
9:06incredible hype that there was before the season but look like a good offense at some point?
9:11Will they have that breakout game where it's like, oh boy, here we go, strap in?
9:16Or do you think, I mean, we're only four weeks in.
9:19It gets late early in the NFL, but it is still early.
9:23Do you think that this is still just figuring it out or is it fundamentally like we are not going to see
9:30anything remotely close to that this year? You know, we were comparing him on the recap show to a Drake May where
9:36there's a certain level of promise like, okay, he's got the rushing upside.
9:40The coaching, we're not having, you know, this is not a new coaching staff, a new system or anything.
9:46He's just acclimating to a lot tougher games than he saw last season.
9:50And what we saw last week is he finally got into, or this past week in week four, we finally got into
9:57a pass friendly matchup where he could thrive. His wide receiver one as of right now came through.
10:02So yeah, there was better horizons and you could logically say like, okay, at some point we're going to see a better situation for him.
10:10But with the schedule that the Chargers have, you can try and pinpoint it and look through and it's like, man, I don't know.
10:17I mean, you're skipping ahead and saying, okay, well, somewhere on down the line, they're going to play the Jets.
10:23No offense to the Jets and Jets fans love you, but that will eventually be the easiest matchup they'll be able to get to.
10:31It's just tough to imagine that it's going to significantly turn around.
10:34Now they remain balanced. They remain committed to the run.
10:37They're not completely abandoning it. They're doing strange things in terms of this commitment to a three-man committee.
10:43But I would say that the run game and particularly Amari and Hampton, because he hasn't looked awful.
10:48And that's another thing. It's not as if he's out there looking like complete trash.
10:53Perhaps if Justin Herbert can just get right mentally and the interceptions come down, because all those were his fault last week.
11:00And maybe the wide receivers don't have as many drops, but even then, so it's just such a rough schedule.
11:06You've got another buy for us here. A player we talked about last week too.
11:10Yeah, it's a happier buy. It is Parker Washington.
11:13I wanted to run this one back because, you know, sometimes, you know, when you're looking at it as a fantasy manager,
11:20you say, no one's going to sell Parker Washington.
11:23They're holding on to him. Everybody knows his value.
11:25Everybody doesn't. Again, that goes back to, as I'm going through and I'm getting a lot of trade questions from people, Parker
11:32Washington is an extremely common name that was coming up a lot heading into this week, this past week, week four.
11:38However, he's a very buyable asset. A lot of fantasy managers were asking questions saying, hey, like, is, you know, when are
11:45the points going to come down for Parker Washington?
11:48Is this all going to drop? They were looking at those first games as the ceiling games, the outlier games, not as,
11:55okay, hey, there's better games on the horizon because these are difficult matchups.
11:59The Jags, we know they had a very slated schedule to begin the season.
12:03Then we get into the back half of the season after their bye week and things open up significantly and we get
12:10to those easier matchups where everyone in that offense is really going to benefit.
12:14But it's tough to get there if people were extremely concerned about the fact that at some point the wool is going
12:21to be pulled over and the rug or the rug is going to be pulled and we're going to be seeing this dip in production from Parker Washington.
12:29And that's what we got this week. So this is actually the perfect time, right, to get in there for those people who were a little bit concerned.
12:38And now you've got this little opening opportunity to really seal the deal because they were ready to ship them off and thinking that they were selling high.
12:46And now they're panicking, thinking that they're going to have to sell low before it drops even further.
12:52So, yeah, he's a very buyable asset right now.
12:54Of course, you know, if someone is a Parker Washington truther, there's nothing you can do about that.
13:00But sentiment on guys that around people that are not really 100% truthers.
13:04Yeah, they're a little bit panicked here. And again, from Trevor Lawrence, we've seen him in a not a very high volume situation.
13:11Operating with lower volume, higher efficiency in these matchups that are a little bit more difficult.
13:16They were very balanced this week. They leaned aggressively on Britain Strange.
13:19It seems like maybe the Bengals might be on the friendlier end of the tight end fantasy point spectrum.
13:25So maybe Liam Cohen saw something that could be exploited.
13:28And we sent those targets hyper targeting to Britain Strange in order to succeed in this matchup.
13:33But prior to this week, Washington had a minimum of 13 fantasy points in PPR with Trevor Lawrence maxing out at 29 attempts in a game.
13:41And the Jags face Philadelphia next week. Then they got Houston, the bye week.
13:46So right now is literally the perfect time to get in there and people thinking like, hey, this is this is it.
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14:22I think it's a great call. Obviously, I really liked this call a week ago.
14:26Maybe even more affordable to all your points here this week.
14:30You know, just eight targets the last two weeks.
14:32Like that's something I'd highlight. Definitely if you're, you know, looking to maybe sort of knock him down a bit in trying to acquire him cheaper.
14:40Like, oh, if there's some concern there, just four catches on eight targets, you know, in the last week.
14:46But there's no doubt in my mind that he's a really good player.
14:50There's no doubt in my mind that this is a really good offense.
14:54Those two pieces together, that's kind of enough for me to be really interested in going.
14:59And wide receiver is such a volatile position. There's like five names a year that aren't up and down.
15:05It is okay for a receiver to have a volatile week and have a bad down week here and there.
15:11Unless you're like JSN or, you know, 2021 Cooper Cup.
15:14Like, it is going to happen. So I definitely would recommend trying to take advantage of people overreacting to the natural roller coaster of a wide receiver season.
15:22Find out what your players are really worth with the new Fantasy Pros trade market values.
15:27Report compare player values from actual trades across thousands of fantasy leagues against Fantasy Pros expert consensus values.
15:33Quickly identify players to buy low, sell high, or target in your next deal with values for half PPR, Dynasty, and your synced teams.
15:40Make smarter trades using real market data at fantasypros.com slash markets.
15:43That's fantasypros.com slash markets. Also, while I'm promoting things, recommending people to go do stuff, go follow us on Instagram and TikTok.
15:50You can find Tara doing a lot of live streams on there throughout the week, as she mentioned earlier, where she's answering
15:57all of those start, sit, trade, waiver, et cetera types of questions for you.
16:01So she does that on TikTok and Instagram for us.
16:04Tara, you have a player to shop. Yes. Yeah, shop is my friendly way of saying, like, we're just trying to feel it out.
16:12It's not like a must, like, hey. Like, when I say go buy Parker Washington, I'm saying go buy Parker Washington.
16:18When I say to shop Bucky Irving, I'm not saying, like, hey, panic.
16:22You need to just, like, get rid of him right now.
16:25Do what's right for your team because, obviously, like, you don't have to do this if you're not good at running back.
16:32Let's say that you're in a 10-team league. You drafted well at running back and you can afford to move Bucky.
16:38Then move him. Move him and upgrade at another position.
16:41The Bucs have not been probably underselling it. They have not been successful on offense this season.
16:47And the result has been just three red zone attempts for Bucky Irving with zero attempts inside the five.
16:52And his only rushing touchdown was back in week one.
16:55And that is definitely Tampa baseball. Their offensive struggles have been.
16:59I will not put any of that blame on him.
17:02Obviously, even before Jalen Daniels with Baker Mayfield, things were very shaky.
17:06So it's not as if prior to this week we were getting a bunch of red zone attempts from someone else.
17:12So this is why I'm saying we jump on it now before we get into what could be a little bit of a pattern, right?
17:20Because therein lies the problem. The offense has been so bad that we really haven't gotten to see what they want to
17:26do at the goal line because the goal line hasn't existed.
17:30And unfortunately, this is not new for Bucky Irving being iced out inside the five and greatly reduced inside the red zone.
17:36I was very concerned about Bucky Irving this offseason during draft season because while he was definitely going to be the lead
17:43back and volume was going to be there, he was going to get the bulk of the carries.
17:49My concern with him was what happens if Gamewell takes a little bit of the receiving work and then Sean Tucker runs
17:55it back at the goal line because Bucky had zero carries inside the five last season.
18:00Zero. And it wasn't related to his injury. It happened before the injury.
18:04It happened after the injury when he came back and he was on a normal workload.
18:09Sean Tucker was still getting those looks at the goal line.
18:12So then we cut to this week and the Tampa Bay staff actively says, yeah, we have got to get Sean Tucker more involved.
18:20Oops, that's that's a little bit of a red flag.
18:23And what happens? They kept their word. Yeah, they ran Sean Tucker in the red zone.
18:28He got a touchdown. Kenneth Gamewell got a receiving touchdown.
18:31And you can say that this is overreacting and that this is not going to be how it is the entire season.
18:37But that's what it was last season, unfortunately. So we might see a lot more of these games where Bucky is the lead back.
18:45Clearly, he's getting 15 carries. The result is 60 yards, maybe more if there's a good matchup, but no touchdowns.
18:51So if you're OK or you maybe have another running back that you have your eye on that you maybe want to
18:58upgrade to or you want to switch and upgrade in another position, now might be a good time to go ahead and,
19:04you know, make that pass on with Bucky, because most people still have a very good sentiment around him.
19:10He's not somebody that people were actively trying to shop around before this week.
19:14So we'll have to see how the reactions are probably going to be a lot of blame pay blame put on Jalen
19:21Daniels in particular rather than Bucky Irving and the offense in general.
19:25So I think it's still a good time to maybe get out there, shop around and see if there is any interest in him.
19:32Are you thinking more along the lines of like trying to trade him for another running back that you like better?
19:38Or are you thinking more like maybe go for a receiver with him and try to go, you know, cross positional with this one?
19:46I think maybe go cross positional, go for a receiver.
19:49Maybe you look for a package deal depending on how desperate someone is at running back, because the person who is going
19:55to want to buy Bucky Irving is not someone who's necessarily looking to flip a player that you would specifically want in your starting lineup.
20:03They're probably dealing with significant injuries. They lost A-chan.
20:06They lost Brees Hall. They're just they're struggling. They're trying to make it work.
20:10Maybe they thought that Jalen Wright was going to be the one they put him into their starting lineup.
20:16There's a thousand scenarios and a ton of people who are struggling significantly to the point where they're looking at backup running
20:23backs and saying, I think I have to start Kalon Black this week.
20:27I have to start Emmitt Johnson this week. You know, can I what do you think?
20:31What do you think in terms of who I can pivot to?
20:35Because they don't have an actual starting traditional RB2 that they can actually put into their starting lineup.
20:41You've got one more move to make here before week five.
20:44What is it? Yeah, it's technically two, but we are going to make a move in terms of adding or buying Tyreek Hill or Jordan Tyson.
20:52Just depends on how deep your league is, what the roster percentage is.
20:56Tyreek Hill is just under 30 percent rostered in Yahoo Leagues.
20:59I'm sure that will be rising. I'm sure now that we've got the news of the fact that he is probably going to be signing.
21:07Maybe we'll be signing with someone by the time you guys are watching this video.
21:11And then Jordan Tyson is still just over 51 percent rostered.
21:15Tyreek is the real quick and easy one. Not a ton of justification on that in terms of, hey, yeah, he's coming off of a major injury, right?
21:23And will he come back to 100 percent of where he was pre-injury?
21:27You know, that's hard to imagine. But even a slightly downgraded version of Tyreek Hill, 70 percent of Tyreek Hill is still
21:34a viable fantasy option in the right situation. And, you know, from what we hear, it could be the Chiefs, right?
21:40They've lost Rishi Rice to a hamstring injury. We'll have to see how serious that is.
21:45But we know that those unfortunately can get you on IR.
21:49They're typically multi-week injuries. They lost poor Taequann Thornton for the entire season.
21:53So they have an immediate need and a long-term need as well.
21:56So if it's that in particular, that is a very interesting fit to where I would like to hold him stash and just see what happens.
22:04Because it's one of those you never know. Are we messing around with these low-end options?
22:09You know, we talk about waivers and there's a guy like, you know, Trey Harris.
22:14Lad McConkie's down. Are we, you know, looking for a Trey Harris and adding him?
22:18What's the true upside? Do you want to roll with that all season in a bad offense?
22:23Or would you rather chance it with the potential of Tyreek Hill getting back in touch with Patrick Mahomes?
22:29I think that one is very interesting. And then there's Jordan Tyson.
22:33The reason why Jordan Tyson is an interesting trade target right now is because, again, he's around 50% roster.
22:39People are able to stash him in IR. But the Saints have stated that he's still weeks away.
22:44So they have a week eight by most logical return date would probably be week nine.
22:49It might feel like it's early, but the timing works because anyone that was rostering him was prepared to hold on.
22:56And the news of there being an additional month, maybe, that's frustrating.
22:59And with all of the injuries piling up, the bi-weeks and whatnot, if they need those IR spots, they might be a
23:06little bit more willing and thinking like, hey, maybe I just need to move on.
23:10Maybe I just need to give up. I don't know when he's going to come back.
23:15So if you can get Jordan Tyson on the cheap, I mean, at the end of the day, it is all about
23:22Tyler Shuck and the aggressive volume that he is pushing.
23:25Obviously, we filmed this before the Monday night game, so it's possible he underwhelms.
23:29But, you know, in the first three games of the season, he's had a minimum of 22 points in the first three games each season.
23:37He is absolutely pushing aggressive volume. We know that Kellen Moore loves to run aggressive pace of play.
23:42He's thrown for a minimum of 34 attempts in every single game.
23:46This is not unusual. It's not an anomaly. And they've been doing it in a wide variety of scenarios, you know, chasing
23:53points against Detroit, competitive matchup against Baltimore, solid defensive matchup against Vegas.
23:57So we've seen it in a lot of different scenarios.
24:00The volume is real. It's going to continue. And they're not even in the easy portion of their schedule where they start
24:06to face some of those, you know, in-division layups.
24:09So this is a move that you can make if you have a winning record right now.
24:14You've got the space to stash him and you could be looking to capitalize in the back half of the season on
24:21a rookie that will be tied to an extremely high volume quarterback.
24:25I'm sorry if you said this already while you're going through those.
24:28I was distracted by Jesse Minter giving an update on Lamar's ankle injury, which I was obviously very keen on.
24:34It wasn't really a real update. It was just saying that they don't think it's going to be a crazy long absence, but they're still getting information.
24:43So no update yet on chances for Sunday night.
24:45I was distracted by that. Did you say, do you have a preference between these two, between Jordan Tyson and Tyreek Hill?
24:52Because I think a lot of people might have the spot to try and pick up one, but maybe not both.
24:58Yeah. If you have a winning record and you can afford to hold, I think the safer bet is for you to go with Jordan Tyson.
25:06If you're needing somebody over the next month, then I would take that chance on Tyreek Hill because technically speaking, we don't
25:13know to what degree he is going to come back game ready.
25:17But if a team that is in a destitute situation right now with receivers, maybe the team, you know, maybe like Kansas
25:23City, obviously, maybe they know specifically that he's a little bit closer to being ready than you would think.
25:29And they're willing to do a ramp up. So maybe you approach it that way in terms of where you are in
25:36terms of if you need somebody for your starting lineup over the next couple of weeks.
25:41All right. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
25:44Thanks, everybody, for checking out five moves to make before week five for Tara.
25:48I'm Ryan Warmly. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time.
25:52Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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