NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bets: Top 10 Picks + Touchdown Scorer Predictions (Ep. 2238)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
39 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 3, 2026
Published
Sat, October 3, 2026
17
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Brenton StrangeChase BrownColston LovelandDarren WallerDrake MayeJahmyr GibbsJared GoffJaylen WrightJordan LoveJordan WatkinsJosh DownsMack HollinsMalik WillisOllie Gordon
Player analysis
Player insights
Brenton Strange
PositiveProjection27:17
The source recommends the over on 33.5 receiving yards for Brenton Strange, noting that the Bengals' defense allows nearly 100 receiving yards per game to tight ends (2nd most in NFL). Strange has been running routes on 82% of dropbacks over the last two weeks and is trending upward in usage.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeUsage17:22
The source recommends the under on 16.5 rushing attempts for Chase Brown, noting he has only hit this number once in three games this season and has an 80% under hit rate dating back to last year. The source argues his volume is inflated by a previous game script and that he is not a 90% snap-share back, expecting his total volume to be split between carries and targets.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection41:48
The source recommends the over on Colson Loveland's 33.5 receiving yard total, citing positive EV projections from multiple models (BP, FantasyPros, PFF) and a favorable matchup against a defense that struggles to defend tight ends.
Insight pageDarren Waller
PositiveMatchup52:18
Erickson recommends Darren Waller for an anytime touchdown, highlighting the Lions' defensive struggles against tight ends, having allowed six receiving touchdowns to the position in three games.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveValue54:13
The source suggests a +500 anytime touchdown bet on Drake Maye, noting his history of rushing touchdowns against the Bills and the likelihood of the team utilizing his legs in short-yardage situations.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveUsage2:24
The source continues the 'Jahmyr Gibbs rollover' touchdown bet strategy for the third straight week, citing a favorable matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The bet is now at 2.5 units, with the expectation of another touchdown performance.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeProjection45:09
Erickson is taking the under on Jared Goff's 34.5 passing attempts, noting that Goff historically struggles on the road, the Lions prefer to feed Jahmyr Gibbs against the Panthers' weak run defense, and potential rain could further limit passing volume.
Insight pageJaylen Wright
NegativeUsage35:54
The source is fading Jalen Wright's rushing yardage prop (29.5) due to the likelihood of a full-blown committee backfield in Miami, his recent injury status (foot/stinger), and a difficult matchup against a Vikings defense that allows the fewest rushing yards per game.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection47:31
The source likes the over on 1.5 passing touchdowns for Jordan Love, noting he has hit this mark in every game this season and faces a Buccaneers defense that struggles to defend tight ends and running backs.
Insight pageJordan Watkins
PositiveSleeper61:40
The source suggests a 65-to-1 longshot bet on Jordan Watkins to score the first touchdown, noting he is expected to fill the role of the third receiver if Mike Evans is limited or out.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveProjection7:20
The source projects Josh Downs to go over 62.5 receiving yards against the Commanders, noting his role as a full-time player who runs the most routes on the team. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged a team-high 2.4 yards per route run on a 33% target share. The Commanders' defense is highlighted as a favorable matchup, allowing a league-high 46.7 fantasy points per game to receivers.
Insight pageMack Hollins
PositiveUsage30:31
The source likes the over on 3.5 receptions for Mack Hollins, citing his 33% air yard share, 29% target share, and 30% first-read share from last week. Hollins is viewed as the primary possession receiver for the Patriots, and the matchup against the Bills' secondary is considered exploitable.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveProjection23:12
The source projects Malik Willis to go over 28.5 rushing yards against the Vikings. The Vikings have allowed nearly 6.5 yards per carry to quarterbacks, and the source believes Willis will be forced to run frequently due to the team missing key weapons like Devon Achane and facing a tough passing matchup.
Insight pageOllie Gordon
NegativeUsage37:02
Ollie Gordon is expected to be part of a committee backfield for the Dolphins, with the source noting he played well and received significant work in the previous week.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveUsage12:15
The source is betting the over on 5.5 receptions for Parker Washington, citing his 46% air yard share (4th in NFL) and a 28.4% team target share. He is expected to exploit a favorable matchup against the Bengals' secondary, specifically targeting DJ Ivy and Dax Hill in the slot.
Insight pageTerrace Marshall
PositiveUsage51:46
Erickson identifies Terrace Marshall Jr. as a prime anytime touchdown candidate against the Lions, noting he leads the team in red zone and end zone targets among wide receivers without a touchdown yet.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue53:41
The source highlights Tyler Warren at +160 for an anytime touchdown, noting the Commanders have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends this season and are not afraid to use Warren in short-yardage situations.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last week, keeping our accountability buddies all happy, we were both 3-2.
0:06So we had another 500 week. The only week that's, I mean, you've been 500 all three weeks, so shout out to you.
0:13Would you like to give a little speech? All three weeks of over 500?
0:17You're kind of amazing right now? Speech, speech, speech, speech.
0:20I mean, I would have been 4-1 if Chase Brown hadn't let me down.
0:24A couple yards short of hitting his rushing yards prop, but hey, in the green, giving out good plays.
0:30We both hit touchdowns last week, which is a big hit.
0:332-0. I guess 2-2 because we give two touchdown bets.
0:36But the fact that both our tight ends end up scoring fine in the end zone, that was a big W.
0:42Yeah, so when we look at the big board for last week, we were both 3-2.
0:47You said we both hit a touchdown. You had a big positive EV because I believe it was the Kenyon Sadiq.
0:53So you were like plus ROI. You were like plus three units, I guess, on that technically.
0:58I was a little over, you know, a little over on the positive.
1:02But either way, I got my first touchdown call.
1:05You got the touchdown call, both 3-2. So when we go and take a look at the yearly board, you are now 10-5.
1:12Very impressive. Very hot start. At least I'm over 500.
1:15I am now 8-7 after my poorish week one.
1:18Two straight weeks, though, of being over 500. So you're 10-5.
1:21I'm 8-7. You have two touchdown calls, correct? I have one.
1:24You've got a positive return from a unit perspective on your touchdowns.
1:28I am still in the negative. Got to get there.
1:31And we have zero first touchdown calls, correct? But we will.
1:34Boy, if we hit ours this week, just wait to the setup that we're going to give you guys.
1:40That's the big setup for the big board. But we have a couple other.
1:44Well, we have one other big board or the graphic that we have is the Jameer Gibbs rollover touchdown continues.
1:50Three straight weeks, Erickson said you can make money off of big juiced-up touchdown calls.
1:54And like in years past that one, whatever it was, a Christian McCaffrey, you know, it was like 15 straight weeks.
2:01You could have been a billionaire if you would have done it.
2:04That's your game into here. So talk to us through.
2:07I don't really remember where we're at from a unit perspective going into week four of Jameer Gibbs betting.
2:13Full disclosure, my unit size is not big enough for me to become a billionaire.
2:17Whether Jameer Gibbs scores touchdowns for 30 consecutive weeks.
2:20But I think now we're at to a point where it's two and a half units.
2:25I believe now that we're betting on Jameer Gibbs to score the anytime touchdown just based on the winnings, rolling that over every single week.
2:32And again, good matchup this week against the Carolina Panthers.
2:35So, yeah, another week of Jameer Gibbs. And hey, if it doesn't happen in the first half, goes in that Sunday night
2:42football game, it'll be a sweaty second half, maybe a late fourth quarter touchdown.
2:46But I'm expecting another touchdown performance from Jameer Gibbs.
2:49And I think it's like minus 220. So you're probably going to be looking at, well, I don't remember what you just said, two and a half units.
2:57So you'll probably be up like maybe close to four if this rolls over and we go into week five.
3:03But now we're starting to cook a little bit.
3:06So the Jameer Gibbs rollover continues. It's very exciting.
3:09The other one, I don't even know if we have a graphic for it because we didn't need it.
3:14But the Welsh undefeated unders has ended. So now I'm obliged to never bet an under again.
3:19I was one and one on my unders. I put two unders on my card.
3:24The one blew past it. So I refused to do an under this week out of solidarity for unders being lame.
3:30You are going to do the exact opposite here into the show.
3:34But we've got 10 bangers for you. Hopefully you guys are going to be tracking along with us.
3:39Make sure you guys download the Betting Pros app where you can track all of your bets.
3:44You can get all the data. You can see the five star bets that we talk about.
3:49You can see what Betting Pros, you can use the analyzer or the cheat sheet to help you out.
3:55All the tools that we make as a part of our whole system here, you can do the same.
4:01So download the Betting Pros app. Let's jump into this.
4:04Now that we got all that stuff out of the way, it's a fresh week.
4:08We got to be big and positive. We got touchdown calls first.
4:12I'm actually like super excited to do the first touchdown calls.
4:15But we also have a few returners to the prop bets here.
4:19I'm going to have one. You have got one that actually failed you.
4:23And there may be a trend of one person going heavy overs and one person going heavy unders.
4:28But for you, that's not going to change, at least in this first one.
4:32So Erickson, this is a squad ride one. I completely agree with you on this one.
4:37Love this play. Your first prop for week four.
4:40Hit us with it. Josh Downs over 62 and a half receiving yards.
4:44We are headed to London because I like starting my Sunday with the big W.
4:48So we're going to get some action in on this Commander's Colts game in the early window.
4:53You're going to be up really early to watch Josh Downs dominate this defense.
4:57Well, 630 a.m. Eastern time or is it 730 Eastern time because of the time zone differences with daylight savings?
5:03What time is it actually going to be when the Colts game kicks off?
5:08Well, you give me the Eastern time. What is the Eastern time of the game?
5:12930 Eastern. It's 930 Eastern. Wow. Somehow you got all of it wrong.
5:16I don't even know how you did that. 630.
5:19It will be 630 my time. 630. Pacific. Yeah.
5:21Yeah. So you'll be up sweating the Josh Downs prop alongside me.
5:25I won't, but yeah. Okay. Then you're going to wake up.
5:28I'm going to wake up to money. That's what I'll do.
5:32I'll wake up to money. Yeah. You're going to wake up to money to Josh Downs because this Commander's defense is so
5:38horrible at covering basically everybody that catches the ball.
5:41They've allowed a league high 46.7 fantasy points per game to receivers.
5:44The fourth highest pass rating to quarterbacks targeting the slot so far this season.
5:49And that's where Josh Downs does the majority of his damage.
5:5268% of his routes are run out of the slot.
5:55That is the fifth highest mark among qualified wide receivers.
5:58So it's a good matchup. And it just comes to him facing up at this Commander's defense and his role in the Colts offense has changed.
6:06He is no longer just being pigeonholed into, okay, you're only playing in 11 personnel.
6:10He is a full-time player in the Colts offense running the most routes on the team.
6:15The last two weeks, he's averaged a team high 2.4 yards per route run on nearly a 33% target share.
6:21While the team has not had Alec Pierce, who's been out with an injury, 20 targets over the last two weeks, five
6:28passes for at least 70 yards in each contest.
6:30So the fact that you're getting this number below 70 yards, he's been over this in two straight weeks and the matchup is oh so juicy.
6:38I think Josh Downs is going to have another big statement game here.
6:42The fact that he's being used more downfield. Josh Downs is usually a player, I think in years past, we would have
6:49had this conversation Welsh about, okay, are we doing the receptions?
6:52Are we doing the receiving yards with Josh Downs?
6:55And more or less, he's always been a guy that, okay, we want to attack the volume with him because he's using used more underneath.
7:02But because his air yard share is actually now top 12 in the NFL, 114 incomplete air yards last year, he's actually seeing more downfield stuff.
7:10So I actually like and feel confident about the yardage, especially with his receiving prop or the receptions prop, like we talked
7:16about earlier, is really juiced towards the over, especially at five and a half.
7:21So I like the yardage here and he's going to go over.
7:24You actually make a very compelling case to play the other side of what my prop is going to be.
7:30And I'll tell you here in a second. But what did I say the first two weeks?
7:35If you give me four and a half on Parker Washington, I'm taking the over.
7:40Then they did give me four and a half the next week.
7:43And I was just like, nay, sir, because it's too juiced.
7:47We are now in a spot where I am going to open up the market to five and a halves on Parker Washington because we are goat status.
7:55And this is going to be plus money. So I am jumping in.
7:59I'm jumping back. Technically, I'm two and oh on Parker Washington bets.
8:03We are going to go for three. Now I'm back on Parker Washington and we are playing.
8:08It's not the it's not necessarily the outline. It's the five point five over and it's plus money and, you know, a couple of different spots.
8:15There's a little bit over or I've even seen like plus one 19 to one 20 on Parker Washington.
8:21The thing that makes it interesting what you said, Parker Washington actually is fourth in the NFL in air yard share 46 percent.
8:28So that would actually be a play. It's pushed up a little bit around this 70 ish marker.
8:33So that actually kind of interests me in the ever going battle of receptions versus receiving yards.
8:39But in this case, like Parker Washington has been the guy and now the Bengals secondary has been solid from an overall perspective.
8:45But if you look at PFF ratings out for this week, number two overall matchup for Parker Washington graded out, obviously, because he is so high.
8:53But one of the things to focus on, it's not DJ Turner.
8:57It's DJ Ivy and Dax Hill, the corners that he might be lined up against, especially specifically when he gets into the slot.
9:04DJ Turner will stay on the outsides a bit more.
9:07DJ Ivy does not even qualify is unranked. And you're looking at Dax Hill, the other corner, that's like 90 of 100 overall corner.
9:14So they're going to move. We know that Parker Washington is going to move throughout the offense.
9:19They're going to get him on the inside and they're going to sling him the ball.
9:24He his target share has been up there. I believe it's closed in on around 39 percent as I'm looking here in
9:30a 28.4 percent overall target share for the team with a 32.8 percent first read share.
9:35So we just go through this. He is the guy.
9:38He is the top guy and him playing out of the slot more.
9:42I know Jacobi Myers is going to force into some of that.
9:46I think this game is going to be slinging the ball and Parker Washington is getting the targets per game.
9:52We're closing in on eight. These are going to be some catchable balls.
9:56It's a favorable matchup. Give me 5.5 on the receptions over.
9:59But you do have me a little bit interested talking about the air yard share and thinking about that.
10:04That is maybe a pivot play that you guys could take a look at if you want.
10:10And by the way, you can go and play these out with the NFL prop cheat sheet.
10:15Find the best NFL player props with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
10:19Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections.
10:22Don't cover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props.
10:28Go and play through. Get your best bets in there and let betting pros help you out.
10:33All right, let's go to number two on the props here.
10:37Will we start to get the unders? Mr. Under taker.
10:40So I'm actually going to the Bengals Jaguars game.
10:42Chase Brown. He failed me last week. So clearly now he's dead to me and I'm only betting his unders.
10:48Under 16 and a half rushing attempts for Chase Brown.
10:51This number really stood out to me when I was perusing through the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet because this number
10:58is a ludicrously high for a player like Chase Brown.
11:01And I'm one of the biggest Chase Brown fans.
11:04We're talking about him as a buy low across the board and fantasy pros.
11:08But this number is just way too big for him in this particular matchup.
11:12The projections have Chase Brown at 14.9 carries. He's only going over this number one time in three games played this season.
11:18And that was against the Houston Texans. But dating back to last year, he's gone over this number just five times in 20 games played.
11:26That is a 20% hit rate towards the over.
11:29Or as I like to look at it, an 80% hit rate towards the under.
11:33Which is why we're playing this as one of my best bets this week.
11:37You look at the running backs so far this season that have faced the Jaguars.
11:42No running back they have faced has surpassed 12 carries.
11:45And a little trivia for you, Welsh. How many times do you think a running back had at least 17 carries against
11:51the Jacksonville Jaguars in the entire 2025 season? How many running backs and who do you think they were?
11:57Ooh, well, I mean, how you're setting me up.
12:00It's got to be like two. And I don't know.
12:03You're right. It is two. Two very, very good running backs.
12:06James Cook won? Christian McCaffrey. No, James Cook is not either of them.
12:10It was Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor did it twice against them.
12:14But those guys are just different offenses. 90% snap share players.
12:17As much as I love Chase Brown, he's not in that category.
12:20He's not a 90% snap share type of player.
12:23He does cede some type of work to Samajah Pirine at times.
12:27So, even last year in this same matchup where, to your point about Parker Washington, he did have a monster game last year against the Bengals.
12:35Even before he had his like full-fledged breakout. Last year against the Jaguars, Chase Brown topped out at 16 carries.
12:41But the big difference from that game versus this game is Joe Burrow got hurt in that game.
12:46They had Jake Browning for the majority of that game, which is why they leaned on Chase Brown so much.
12:52So, I think that's kind of playing into why his number here is so high.
12:56And the fact that he did do it one time already against the Houston Texans.
13:01But that was in a game where the Bengals could really play ball control and just try to play defense because the
13:08Texans offense could not move the football against their defense.
13:11So, I just think that this number is totally wrong for a player like Chase Brown in a game where you could
13:17see the Bengals have a negative game script. Like the Jaguars, this is going to be a close game.
13:23The spread is really tight. It's a high-scoring affair.
13:25And I think that Chase Brown, yeah, he'll see volume and see touches.
13:29But I think his total volume will actually be a combination of rushing attempts and targets, receptions out of the backfield versus just straight-up carries.
13:37So, this one I really like a lot. Prop at cheat sheet agrees under 16.5 carries for Chase Brown in week four.
13:43Okay, I'm down with this one. This one's a slick one.
13:47I'm going to play the rushing yards, but we are going to go to the quarterback.
13:52And we're going to play an over. And I'm finally going to dip my toe in the Malik Willis pool.
13:58That is somebody that wanted to try to dive into, wanted to see more rushing yards.
14:02Last week, that started to click. He was able to drop 56 in a spot where he didn't really rush a whole bunch prior to that.
14:10I mean, 49ers, it wasn't a big one. But I mean, I guess against the Raiders, he had also passed this number.
14:17But what we're looking at is a consensus line of around 28.5.
14:20Projections are kind of all over the board. BP isn't in love with that one.
14:25PFF has Malik Willis as the number one rushing yards quarterback so far for this week.
14:30And taking a look at the Vikings and what they've done, they have given up this number.
14:35Two of the three outings they have not. But one of those was a five carry 42 yard output from Caleb Williams.
14:41They're averaging around almost six and a half yards given up per rush to quarterbacks.
14:46And Malik Willis is projected at the minimum of six.
14:49So I think the number establishes out well. And another thing, if you go and look at grades here, the Vikings are
14:55a poor passing matchup for Malik Willis. Coverage on the tight ends is one of the better ones.
15:01Wide receiver coverage is pretty solid. It's a slightly above average.
15:04I mean, defensive line rush there. We know they're going to just blitz the crap out of him.
15:09And they're also without Devon HN. They're without their number one weapon.
15:13I'm not sure that they're going to be comfortable with Jalen Wright or Ali Gordon being in a spot to take over that massive check down receiving spot.
15:21So I think this is a situation more where Malik Willis is going to be running and running a lot.
15:27And I'm not playing rush attempts. I'm playing yards.
15:30And I think he can bust this one out.
15:33Over six yards per carry to quarterback so far to against the Vikings.
15:37And Malik Willis going over 50. I think we're going to have another run of this.
15:41And to be honest with you, I'm not sure we're going to see Malik Willis under 35 yards rushing moving forward.
15:48So I think this is the top dog. This is a low number.
15:5228.5 over rushing yards for Malik Willis this week.
15:54That's my number two. And I very, very much like that one.
15:58All right, let's go to our third. This is number five overall.
16:02We've both dropped two. This is going to be our third props for this bad boy.
16:06Erickson, why don't you kick us off? You're going to be jumping in.
16:10We love our tight ends. We love to bet our tight ends for touchdowns.
16:14We try to get them into the props. And you are digging deep, my friend.
16:19Talk to us about Dr. Strange. Continuing to attack this Bengals-Jaguars game.
16:23That was my one thing to watch on the tailgate this week.
16:26Because this game is going to be really, really exciting.
16:29Except for Chase Brown and his rushing attempts. Other than that, it's all overs across the board.
16:34Including Bretton Strange, the tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
16:37Now, he has been under this number at 33 and a half receiving yards.
16:41All three games this season. But similar to the bet that we made a couple weeks back on Rashad Bateman.
16:47It's just, hey, don't look at the box score.
16:50We're going to be forecasting this future matchup for Bretton Strange.
16:53Where better days are ahead for him. And when you look at this Bengals defense.
16:58They continuously bleed yardage to tight ends. So far this season, they've allowed nearly 100 receiving yards per game to tight ends.
17:04That's second most in the NFL. Now, a lot of it did come in garbage time against Dalton Schultz.
17:10Back when they played the Houston Texans. But even before that late production for Schultz.
17:15They still had given up a decent amount of yardage.
17:18And the fact that this number is so low for a player like Bretton Strange.
17:22Who over the last two weeks has run around on 82% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks.
17:27He's heavily involved in this offense. He plays almost every single snap offensively.
17:31The matchup is there. And he's actually coming off his best game of the season.
17:35Where he did have three catches for over 30 yards and five targets.
17:39So it's continuing to trend upwards for Bretton Strange.
17:42And he has been receiving some positive coach speak this week.
17:45Talking about how, yeah, we still want to get Bretton Strange more involved.
17:49Last week, they were talking about Jacoby Myers getting more involved.
17:52And what happened? Jacoby Myers had his best game of the season.
17:56So I'm expecting that same type of pattern here with Bretton Strange.
17:59Having his best game of the season. And a very favorable matchup.
18:03Because that's how you attack this Bengals defense. Defense over the middle of the field.
18:07With guys like Parker Washington and guys like Bretton Strange.
18:10So the fact that the Jaguars are going to be pushed for the first time all season this week.
18:16And it's not going to be a blowout. Or a game against the Denver Broncos.
18:21A tough defense. You're going to see fireworks. And Bretton Strange is going to get over this really low number.
18:27Okay, I like it. I am going to be jumping to one of your guys.
18:31I think you had made a bet on him last week.
18:34Or maybe the second week. Give me some Matt Collins, man.
18:38Matt Collins, I love what he looks like in this offense right now.
18:42Especially when they decide to throw him the ball.
18:44Not that I like anything about the Patriots offense in general.
18:48But I am a psychopath. And I'm a sicko.
18:50And I still disgustingly believe that there's an opportunity for Drake May to bounce back.
18:55But I also don't have the cojones to put a bet in on Drake May this week.
19:00So I'm finding another direction to kind of be invested.
19:03And that's in Matt Collins. And, you know, Matt Collins last week had that big banger.
19:08Six catches. Yards were there. Projections so far on BP.
19:11They're pseudo-supportive of where I'm going. And that is the receptions.
19:14I've definitely kind of honed in on the reception market a little bit early on.
19:18Because it's 3.5. It's a low number right now.
19:21And there is some juice. But you can find this even under minus 120 in some spots.
19:26And I think that's enough to jump in in this spot.
19:29When looking at the last previous matchups, they've actually gotten hit.
19:33The Bills have on some of these outside receivers.
19:35Guys that can move around. Nico Collins had. There has been at least a receiver in every single game versus them that has obviously hit over this mark.
19:44With a couple spots, this happening twice. But Nico Collins had seven catches.
19:48Amon Ra nine. Trey Harris, not Ladd McConkie, was your big receiving marker.
19:52And if I do believe they're going to be competitive.
19:55And Drake Mays got a pretty heavy, if we're being honest, a pretty heavy passing yards total for where he's been at.
20:01Then I think I want to be invested in Matt Collins here.
20:05Who last week had a 33% air yard share.
20:07Was running around 65% of routes. 11 ADOT. A 29% target share.
20:11Which I love. And his, where did I just lose it?
20:14I wanted to give you his first read. A 30% first read share.
20:18So, if you're going to be attacking these guys, which by the way, here's some corner grades.
20:23Christian Benford, 95 of 100. D. Alford, 96 of 100.
20:26And Maxwell Harrison, outside the top 50 of 100 in corners.
20:30You're going to be able to pass on them.
20:32They're probably playing from behind. Matt Collins has kind of been the number one guy or the possession guy.
20:38And I only need four receptions on this. I might even play around and put this to five.
20:43But that's going to be mine. 3.5. Because I got a record to uphold here.
20:483.5 receptions on the over. All right. We've got two more coming up across the board here.
20:53So, strap in. Because you're going to get your unders in.
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21:35All right. Props number four. Both of us going to get in the mud here a little bit.
21:40So, get money with us here. And not just take a dolphin, which I did earlier.
21:45Not just take a low total. But now drop an under on it, Erickson.
21:49Do it. Yeah. Something smells fishy with these Dolphins running backs filling in for Devon Achan.
21:54So, I'm going to go with Jalen Wright under 29.5 rushing yards.
21:58And the Dolphins backfield has been a highly discussed debate, I think, this week with the injury to Achan.
22:03Fantasy manager trying to figure out, okay, which guy am I going to go to?
22:08Who's going to get the volume? And does it even matter because they're facing the Brian Flores Minnesota Vikings defense?
22:14Right? Does it actually even matter which one of these guys gets the volume?
22:18Because, Welsh, I looked at the markets today with these two running backs.
22:22I was really interested in playing an under on either Ollie Gordon or Jalen Wright.
22:26And it was actually kind of surprising to me that Jalen Wright actually has the higher numbers than Ollie Gordon does in the props.
22:34Well, he's first on the depth chart. I think that's why.
22:37And that's it. The unofficial depth chart that the PR guy puts together, not the head coach.
22:42Like, that's to me, I think, just kind of interesting.
22:45So, the only reason I'm only playing Jalen Wright instead of Ollie Gordon is just he has larger numbers.
22:51Whereas, all the information that's been told to us is that it's going to be a full-blown committee in some way, shape,
22:57or form, and everybody's going to have a different role.
23:00So, that's what Dolphins head coach Jeff Hathaway said, that very adamant that he was going to use all of his guys
23:07to fill the void left by his star running back Devon Achan.
23:11Now, what does that actually mean and translate to the field?
23:14Like, we don't know. So, with all this ambiguity, I'm just pounding the under for these Dolphins running backs.
23:19And Wright has the highest number at 29.5. He also has the highest carry total at 8.5 rushing attempts.
23:25So, I'm not confident that he's necessarily going to see that type of volume because it could be a committee.
23:31Ollie Gordon showed up last week, played very well, and got a ton of work.
23:36Jalen Wright's also coming off an injury. Foot, stinger, how effective is he actually going to be and how much volume is he actually going to get?
23:44So, I'm kind of fading the confidence that at least the market is showing a little bit in Jalen Wright by taking his under.
23:51And then going back to the matchup, it's absolutely terrifying.
23:54The Vikings are on the fourth, fewest rushing yards per game this season.
23:58They've allowed the lowest EPA per rush this season.
24:01Also, Dolphins All-Pro center Aaron Brewer popped up in the injury report on Thursday with a hand injury.
24:06So, if he can't go or he's not 100%, there's going to be no push up front for the Miami Dolphins playing
24:13on the road in Minnesota against this Brian Flores defense.
24:16I'm taking the under. I think this is a good process play.
24:19And if it beats me, so be it. But one of these Dolphins running backs is going to underwhelm dramatically.
24:25And just given the fact that the right number is a little bit bigger, that's where I'm going to go.
24:31And you know what? It's kind of a correlative play to my Malik Willis over rushing yards as well.
24:37That if you wanted to, you know, put some, we have the same game, we have the parlay wizard, same game parlay
24:43wizard, where that would be a correlative play to the over on Malik Willis and the under on Jalen Wright that you could put together.
24:51So, I like where you're going. I am going to be taking a low number, but I told you I'm off.
24:57I'm off of unders for this week, even because last one and it broke my heart.
25:02Three and one. So, we're going overs. But this is a low total for stinky players so far this year.
25:08But this is a get right spot and it's Colson Loveland.
25:11Colson Loveland has a very low, rightfully so, receiving yard total of 33.5 this week.
25:16Like, every projection market likes the over. BP likes the over at around 38.
25:20Fantasy pros, if you want to look on the fantasy side of the different algorithm, around 41.
25:25One of the biggest ones, you know, obviously I say PFF.
25:28I appreciate what they do. 55 is their marker.
25:31And, you know, hopefully that is barred out to like where he's been.
25:35But one of the things, like Loveland last week doesn't jump out from like a target percentage.
25:40He was actually only targeted 11% of the time.
25:43First read percentage wasn't up there. I think if Bajan's in, Bajan's going to help this situation.
25:48But here's a marker that helped push me in it.
25:51Besides every projection like in it. Besides BP giving this a positive grade, a positive EV market.
25:56Projection EV is around 9% total on it. But when you go and look at cornerback grades on the wide receivers.
26:02Because I actually started this off with a Luther Burden.
26:05But check these out. You've got three corners graded in the top 35 in the NFL.
26:10And you've got one who's a top 10 in Travis Brownlee.
26:13Thomas and Stevens both inside the top 35. So there's a shutdown on Idunze and on Burden.
26:18And this is a favorable matchup. Bottom third against tight ends.
26:22Two of the three games that they've played. The Tucker Craft stuff just went out.
26:26But against the Lions and the Titans, tight ends have each caught in five passes.
26:31They're averaging four catches to tight ends overall. And the yardage total is going over this with last week having 51 plus yards to tight end.
26:38So all of that to be said. Bajan a little bit more efficient.
26:42They get the ball in the air. They're trying to get Loveland more involved.
26:46Super low total. 33.5. Give me the over on Colson Loveland.
26:50It's dirty. It's nasty. But we're going to get back there.
26:53And we are going to end this bad boy off with some quarterback props.
26:57These are our final for the week here. We both got a quarterback that we're going to be playing.
27:03So Erickson, will you go over 50% on unders?
27:06You got two overs, two unders. Where are we going?
27:09We're going back to the unders here. And this one kind of pains me because it involves the Detroit Lions, which I usually never will bet an under.
27:17But this game, the Lions and Panthers is not being played at Ford Field, course field of the NFL.
27:23It's being played in Carolina where forecast is actually calling for some potential rain, which I really don't doesn't actually happen because that would just ruin a lot.
27:31Because we know this Lions team just acts totally different.
27:34Jared Goff's indoor cat. That being said, I still think even in pristine conditions, there's a chance he goes under this passing
27:41attempt number, which is listed at 34 and a half passing attempts.
27:44Five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week.
27:48Jared Goff has gone under this number three games as a road favorite.
27:51He's been under this number in five of his last 10 road games.
27:55Carolina has faced the sixth lowest pass rate this season.
27:58To me, this is a matchup where you don't put Jared Goff out there in the elements and you just feed Jameer Gibbs.
28:05Like that seems like it'd be the perfect game plan against this terrible Panthers run defense.
28:10That's how teams have attacked Carolina so far this year.
28:13Three quarterbacks they faced. Nobody has attempted more than 30 pass attempts against them.
28:17So the projection is leaning hard into the under.
28:20And if there is a chance where the rain is legit, then there's no way that the Lions are going to feel
28:27comfortable dropping back to throw with Jared Goff 34 and a half times because that's just not his strength.
28:32Like especially in outdoor condition. So I'm taking the under here and I think this is probably one of my favorite plays as well.
28:39I like it. This one I kind of dove into too.
28:43I don't think I've done a passing touchdown marker this week or this year so far.
28:47But this one I love and I am going to Jordan Love.
28:51The team that has no running game whatsoever. Going up against Buccaneers, team that is messy.
28:56It's a messy defense. It's a messy offense with Jalen Daniels out there.
29:00And there's one thing that Jordan Love does this year, or at least the Packers do.
29:05Throw touchdowns. He's had two touchdowns in every single game he's played so far this year.
29:09And that is the marker. By the way, I believe, unless I just fooled myself out of it, it's plus money.
29:16Right around even on. But I'm seeing some plus money on 1.5 over on the touchdowns.
29:20And that's where I'm going to be rocking. Buccaneers, they only have one game where they've given up over two touchdowns.
29:27But I think you have an extra messy situation that's going on so far.
29:31They don't cover tight ends well. They're not covering running backs well.
29:35Wide receivers is a little better play. But there isn't much of a pass rush that's happening whatsoever.
29:40So this team isn't going to run. We just know they're going to pass.
29:44Get Tucker Craft involved. I desperately was thinking about doing my Christian Watson first touchdown play.
29:49Golden has stepped up. This is just a phenomenal situation.
29:52And the Buccaneers might be turning the ball over multiple times.
29:55This might hit in the first half 1.5 over touchdowns for Jordan Love.
29:59That is my final prop. Those are 10 props that we have locked into.
30:03But we ain't done. We are going to get to some touchdowns here.
30:07We both hit a touchdown last week. If you guys want to get in on the action, go to bettingpros.com slash touchdown.
30:14You can check out the touchdown score report. Looking for an edge in touchdown bets?
30:18Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime bets.
30:25Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today.
30:28Mr. Andrew Erickson, let's talk some touchdowns here. You are in the green.
30:32You have hit, I think, two of three weeks at least.
30:35You've got a couple touchdown calls here. So where are you going this week?
30:40Wherever the Lions are going is where I'm going to attack.
30:43Because that has worked for my process. Juwan Johnson week one.
30:46Who do you play? Detroit Lions. Scored a touchdown.
30:49Week three. Kenyon Sadiq. Scored a touchdown. Who did he play?
30:52Welsh. Oh yeah. The Detroit Lions. So that's the process, man.
30:55That's how you hit on touchdown bets as you pick the players that are facing the Detroit Lions.
31:01So I have a twofer here today. I have two Carolina Panthers in my anytime touchdown bet calls.
31:06That's a raw McMillan is going to score a touchdown this week against the Carolina Panthers.
31:11Or excuse me, against the Detroit Lions. He plays for the Carolina Panthers.
31:15TMAC has seen the most red zone targets and end zone targets this season among wide receivers without a touchdown yet.
31:21So he got shut down last week against the Cleveland Browns.
31:24But that will not be the case, especially with Jalen Coker banged up.
31:28He's going to be the focal point of this passing attack against a really bad line secondary.
31:33So I think he finds the end zone or have opportunities to find the end zone.
31:38And then the same kind of spiel with Darren Waller, just specifically how bad the Lions have been against tight ends.
31:45They've allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends in three games.
31:48Six different Titans have caught a touchdown against the Detroit Lions and Darren Waller will be the seventh.
31:53So those are my anytime touchdown bets. Attack these Lions.
31:56I love it. All right. What does five touchdowns do for you?
32:00Well, that number is the amount of touchdowns that the commanders have given up to tight ends this season.
32:05Five touchdowns is a ridiculous marker. Two touchdowns against the Eagles to tight ends, two in the Cowboys.
32:11And last week, one. So obviously that would be the math.
32:14I was thinking it was A.J. Barner, but it was Sherbert.
32:17Five touchdowns given up. Every single week there's been a touchdown given up.
32:21So how about Tyler Warren with a plus 160 this week for an anytime touchdown?
32:26They're not afraid to even use him on a little handoff and short yardage.
32:30But this is a massive, massive advantage. We've also talked about Josh Downs.
32:34I mean, I think that's also a play that you can jump into.
32:38But tight ends are a huge crutch. Really anything on the inside.
32:41It seemed Josh Downs is going to be beneficial.
32:44But I think this is going to be a really good spot for Tyler Warren.
32:49So plus 160 is mine. And then I've got the biggest anytime play here.
32:53I'm going to go to our boy Drake May.
32:56Told you I think he's going to get right.
32:58I guess I did find my way to be invested in him.
33:02He actually had two rushing touchdowns last year versus the Bills.
33:05Like we've seen this play from Drake May before where he starts to run.
33:09He doesn't have a rushing touchdown so far on the season.
33:13I do think they can pass some. But when they get into short yardage, they're desperate.
33:17He's desperate. He's talking about the shoulder. It's not the shoulder.
33:21Well, guess what? Put your shoulder down. Bring it into the end zone.
33:25Five to one plus 500 for Drake May on something that he has done against this Bills team before.
33:30And I believe this would be the first rushing touchdown by a quarterback against for the Bills as well.
33:36So plus 500 is my play for that. Yeah, I love that call.
33:40And this is something that I've kind of been tracking where every week you see guys get touchdowns, but then they could call back on penalty.
33:48So Drake May had a rushing touchdown last week, but it called back on a penalty.
33:52And there have been times this season where guys one week, Darren Waller in week two, or excuse me, in week one,
33:59had a touchdown, was called back on a penalty.
34:02What did he do the next week? Scored a touchdown.
34:05Cooper Cup in week one against the Patriots, had a touchdown, was called back.
34:09Cooper Cup last week, scored a touchdown. Like the coaches remember when these plays work and then they go back to it the following week.
34:16So I think that this is a really sharp play, especially at five to one.
34:21I'm going to be watching that game very closely.
34:24And I think I think I'm going to be tailing this one.
34:27I know. I know you will. Of course you will be.
34:30You'll be locked in. All right. Our final one.
34:33We've been having a ton of fun. Oh, we haven't been cashing it, but there's big there's big odds for a reason here.
34:40Our first touchdown pets this week. No joke. Not accidental, by the way.
34:44We have both gone 65 to one. This this sets you up for the year.
34:48I got to tell you, there were two I was looking at looking at Christian Watson again, because all he does is catch first touchdowns.
34:56It's seven and a half to one for him to do that right now, though.
35:00Trey McBride is another one that I thought was really interesting.
35:04I almost did any time touchdown, but I was too tempted as you were.
35:08So we are complete psychopath mode. Sixty five to one are both of our first touchdown plays.
35:13So please talk to us about your player and give us the pronunciation.
35:17I'm going with Nate Borkucher for the Jacksonville Jaguars tight end rookie tight end at 65 to one to catch the first touchdown.
35:24In the past, when I've been able to hit on some of these bigger long shot bets, it's always been I find
35:30a game that's high scoring and you pick a random tight end on one of the teams.
35:35The guy that has five syllables in the name.
35:38Gotcha. Gotcha. Preferably. Forkucher. The longer, the better is actually what we're the approach here.
35:43So I will say. Positive coach beat for Forkucher.
35:45And last week he had one target and it was inside the 10 yard line.
35:50Oh, OK. So it was close. He did not catch the ball, but he was out there in goal line opportunities.
35:56So the Jaguars strike first against Cincinnati Bengals. I assume that they're going to try to come out aggressive because they know
36:03the firepower that's on the other side with Joe Burrow and company.
36:06I think that if it's not Brent and strange scoring the first touchdown, it could be Forkucher.
36:11So at 65 to one again, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Bengals.
36:14Those are my two games. I'm going to be locked and loaded and the one o'clock slate.
36:20So and I know, Welsh, you're going back to the 49ers after.
36:23I mean, the Kyle Juszczyk play should have hit in some way, shape or form.
36:28I couldn't I couldn't believe it didn't hit. But you're not you're not going to be swayed to go away from your Niners.
36:34No, I've got to be honest with you. I almost went back to Juszczyk.
36:39This feels like the week they go back to it.
36:42I almost did it. But I decided to go.
36:44I thought this one was nice and dirty and it's great.
36:48If Mike Evans plays awesome, is it likely that he doesn't and or is super limited?
36:52Yes, there are no live bodies. They were picking up Brandon Cooks and Dante Pettis.
36:57But you know who they do like to put out there?
37:00They like to put out Jordan Watkins. Jordan Watkins, they like to play as a three.
37:05And if Evans is out, he can kind of play that role.
37:09You astutely talked about on I don't know if it was tailgate, but how we might see Sertan start to lock down on the middle for George Kittle.
37:17And they might go play action. Christian McCaffrey and bam, Mr.
37:20I mean, Debo doesn't catch passes. He just gets yards.
37:23He doesn't get receptions. Jordan Watkins does 65 to one.
37:26Jordan Watkins first touchdown. Lock it up. But, you know, it'll be Kyle Juszczyk.
37:31Maybe play a little bit on both of those.
37:33All right, there you go. Those are our plays.
37:36But what are yours? Your favorite props? Drop them below.
37:39You got a first touchdown. Oh, baby. Let's see what those look like.
37:43Jump in the comments. Interact with the show. Hopefully you guys are enjoying it, having fun.
37:48Download the Betting Pros app as well. So not only can you track all of your bets, track your success throughout, track your favorite markets.
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38:04It is an amazing tool. We got lots of different systems as well, tracking how there's positive ROI.
38:10Go and check it out for yourself. Download the Betting Pros app.
38:13That is going to do it for us, though.
38:16For Andrew Erickson, I'm Chris Welsh. Good luck on all your bets for week four.
38:21We'll talk to you next time right here on Betting Pros.
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