NFL Week 5 Props to Bet: Top 10 Picks, TD Longshots & Best Bets (Ep. 2254)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
41 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 10, 2026
Published
Sat, October 10, 2026
25
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Michael WilsonNico CollinsAaron JonesAmon-Ra St. BrownBo NixBrock PurdyDaniel JonesDavid MontgomeryGarrett WilsonIsaiah LikelyJ.K. DobbinsJalen HurtsJaxon Smith-NjigbaJordan Love
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
PositiveUsage58:50
Aaron Jones is a high-volume option for the Vikings, consistently touching the ball 20-plus times in recent games. The source likes him for a first-touchdown bet at +400 odds.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveProjection56:40
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a target for a first-touchdown bet against Arizona, as he has five touchdowns already and the Cardinals' pass defense has struggled, allowing 11 passing touchdowns.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveUsage50:34
Bo Nix is a sneaky anytime touchdown play due to his mobility and Sean Payton's play-calling. The Chargers have already allowed two rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
NegativeProjection5:27
The source recommends the under on Brock Purdy's 32.5 pass attempts, noting a projection of 30.9. Purdy has only cleared this number once in his seven career starts against Seattle, and the 49ers are expected to maintain a balanced offensive attack in what is anticipated to be a physical, low-scoring game.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeProjection7:36
The source advises taking the under on Daniel Jones' 31.5 pass attempts against the Steelers. The Steelers' defense has allowed an average of only 28.5 pass attempts per game, and the Giants are expected to lean on Jonathan Taylor in the run game, especially with Jones' center dealing with an injury.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeUsage38:25
David Montgomery is struggling to get going in the Texans' offense, with snap counts showing he is nearly splitting work evenly with Woody Marks (146 to 122 snaps over four games).
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveMatchup48:35
Garrett Wilson is a strong anytime touchdown candidate against the Browns, who have allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers through the first two weeks.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveUsage60:17
Isaiah Likely has continued to be the number two target for the Giants and is a deep-odds first-touchdown bet at +1300.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeUsage42:09
J.K. Dobbins remains the primary ball carrier for the Chargers, though the source suggests R.J. Harvey has become more involved in the passing game.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeUsage3:46
The source projects Jalen Hurts for 5.7 rushing attempts, favoring the under on his 6.5 line. The Eagles are managing injuries to the offensive line, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley, making it a priority to keep Hurts upright. Additionally, the Jaguars have been effective at limiting quarterback rushing, allowing only 19 attempts to QBs across four games.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveProjection10:36
The source likes Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go over 94.5 receiving yards against the 49ers. Despite a quiet outing last week, he cleared 100 yards in three of his other four games this season, and the 49ers' secondary remains a exploitable matchup.
Insight pageJordan Love
NegativeProjection9:14
The source recommends the under on Jordan Love's 33.5 pass attempts. Chicago leads the league in time of possession, while Green Bay ranks 31st, limiting the total volume of plays. Love has never exceeded 32 pass attempts in six career starts against the Bears.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeDepth Chart44:16
The source suggests the Chargers should trade Justin Herbert so he can find success elsewhere, citing the team's historical inability to support playmakers and poor coaching decisions.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection57:25
Justin Jefferson is a first-touchdown candidate against the Saints, provided he plays through his ankle sprain. The storyline of playing in his home state of Louisiana makes him a compelling bet.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeUsage35:30
Marvin Harrison caught a touchdown in the first quarter last week but failed to record a catch on his three subsequent targets.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveUsage20:37
The source highlights Michael Wilson as a favorite pick to go over 5.5 receptions against Detroit. Wilson has been heavily involved with 30 targets over the last two weeks, and the Lions' secondary has allowed the most receptions to wide receivers in the league.
Insight pagePositiveUsage35:30
Michael Wilson has seen 30 targets over his last two games and is a primary focus of the Cardinals' passing attack alongside Trey McBride; the source projects him to hit the over on 5.5 receptions against a historically bad Detroit secondary.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveUsage11:56
The source recommends the over on Nico Collins' 5.5 receptions against the Titans. Collins has cleared this mark in both games he has played this season, and opposing wide receivers have consistently found success against the Tennessee secondary.
Insight pagePositiveUsage52:12
Nico Collins is the most likely Texans player to score a touchdown given the team's lack of a run game. He is a recommended anytime touchdown bet against Tennessee.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveUsage41:43
R.J. Harvey is viewed as the superior back over J.K. Dobbins, with the source noting his increased involvement in the passing game and a favorable matchup against a Chargers defense that allows high rush attempt volume. The source targets his over of 5.5 rush attempts.
Insight pageRoman Wilson
PositiveUsage55:05
With Michael Pittman expected to miss multiple games, Roman Wilson is a deep-league touchdown dart throw. He has shown big-play ability and is favored by Aaron Rodgers.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveInjury49:10
Stefan Diggs is dealing with a hamstring injury but is expected to play. He remains a high-value target in the red zone, having already seen four targets there, and faces a Giants defense that allows many touchdowns to wide receivers.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage35:41
Trey McBride is a central figure in the Cardinals' offense, seeing consistent targets every week. The source considers him the most likely pass-catcher to score a touchdown on a weekly basis and recommends betting his anytime touchdown prop.
Insight pageTyson Bagent
PositiveUsage15:54
The source suggests the over on Tyson Bagent's 10.5 rushing yards against the Packers. The Packers' defense has been vulnerable to quarterback scrambles, allowing 78 rushing yards to the position over 22 attempts this season, and Bagent should see opportunities to scramble under pressure.
Insight pageWoody Marks
PositiveUsage37:36
Woody Marks is seeing an increasing workload in the Texans' backfield, with snap counts showing he is being used as a three-down back rather than just a receiving specialist. The source projects him to exceed 39.5 combined rushing and receiving yards against Tennessee.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. 2026 Campari America, New York, New York.
0:04Never compromise. Drink responsibly. Welcome back. It's the BP Top 10 Prop Picks.
0:08I'm your host for the day, Scott Bogman, joined by Joe Madden.
0:12We know that you guys are used to Welsh and Erickson here.
0:16They're both on vacation. Who gets a vacation in the middle of the season, Joe?
0:21Not us. We're here. Yeah, I don't know anyone who takes a vacation during football.
0:25Maybe they've got some unlucky weddings to go to.
0:28Yeah, I know Welsh is going to a concert.
0:31He's taking his son to a concert. It's like his birthday present.
0:35So I know that one. Don't know what Erickson is doing.
0:38Probably a wedding. Like you said, it is wedding season.
0:41Our boy Seth Wilcock, I know, going to a wedding this weekend as well.
0:46I'm like, man, you're getting a lot of free drinks.
0:49You were a couple weeks ago as well. Yeah, that's the benefit.
0:52If you have to go and miss your games, at least you get an open bar.
0:57We hope they enjoy it. But you get us four prop picks.
1:01I've been hot. I'm not guaranteeing any hotness in this one.
1:05But Joe, it feels weird. We're usually pigeonholed to Monday night football props only.
1:09Yeah. Or I am. I do the Monday and the Sunday night and then the Thursday night.
1:14But we got to pick from the whole weekend.
1:17It was kind of hard to narrow it down.
1:20How was it for you? Yeah. Exciting to narrow it down.
1:23Right. There's so many opportunities for us to jump in on some of these players.
1:28And I'm excited for it, especially the you know, those first touchdown props.
1:32I don't do a lot of those, but always exciting to put a sprinkle.
1:36Absolutely. Absolutely. So we will hit your 10 props.
1:39We'll give you any time touchdowns. We'll give you some first touchdowns as well.
1:44But before we dive in, let's take a look at what the boys did last week.
1:49Looks like a three and two week for Andrew Erickson.
1:52Didn't get his Josh Downs call. Did get Chase Brown under 16 and a half rush attempts.
1:57He also got Brenton Strange over 33 and a half.
2:00That one cleared real quick. Jalen Wright under 29 and a half.
2:04He was absolutely on that one and missed his Jared Goff under 34 and a half pass attempts because he had 52 lots of passenger attempts for Detroit.
2:13That secondary just cannot keep anything contained. So they're going to have to probably play point for point a lot this season until those safeties come back.
2:21You know, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph get back.
2:24That's not going to help him at corner, though.
2:27They're still bad out there. I know they're in on my guy Joey Porter Jr., but the Cowboys ended up with him.
2:33We have Welsh with a two and three week bringing him to 10 and 10 on the season.
2:39Miss that Parker Washington one man. Did he run cold Malik Willis also didn't get over the 29 and a half and
2:46Mac Hollins got injured in this game. He was a three and a half receptions.
2:51He went out after three, of course, just the way it goes.
2:54But Welsh nailed the Colson Loveland receiving yards over.
2:57He had 57 yards and the Jordan Love passing touchdowns over one and a half was an easy get as well.
3:04One ninety seven, two and one. So let's dive in here for week number five.
3:08Joe, you are going to be up first. And sorry, guys, I don't have ROI for these guys.
3:14They can tell you next week. And by the way, we need some.
3:18They do those sexy picks for those guys. You know, they're like like Welsh is doing blue steel.
3:24Andrew Erickson is from the side on his. We need to get some to get some of these or something going for our record next week.
3:32So to join on the graphics team here, let's dive in.
3:35What is your first bet? We have the whole weekend to pick from.
3:39It feels wild. Yeah. What's your first bet you want to you want to take?
3:44Yeah. Up up nice and early with Jalen Hurts.
3:47I'm looking at him to go under six and a half rushing attempts as the Eagles travel late here to London to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
3:55Now, this is one that is supported by the betting pros out projected for five point seven rushing attempts in this game.
4:02He stayed under in seven of his last ten, you guys, including the last three.
4:07And I'm looking here at Hurts and I just think even though we know he's so explosive, he could go for a run of 15 yards.
4:15I don't think that's going to be the game plan here.
4:18We know so many changes with the Eagles on the offensive side of the ball.
4:23And the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed only 19 rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks thus far this season across four games.
4:29That's an average of four point seven five rushing attempts.
4:32Now, I think it's going to come right down to the wire.
4:36I think he's right on that number of six, but six and a half is just too high for me.
4:42Yeah, I like this one as well. Like if he is going to run, they've had so many injuries.
4:48It would be kind of foolish to design a bunch of runs for him and have your quarterback get hurt, too, with
4:55three offensive linemen down and no Devante Smith and Saquon Barkley hurt.
4:59Like, let's keep this guy upright. Let's get some quick passes.
5:02Let's run with Will Shipley and let's do everything we can to keep this guy on his feet.
5:08I think if he does run, it's probably goal line stuff or fourth and one tush push type thing.
5:14So I'm with you on this one for sure.
5:17I think that the number one priority for Philly is keeping your one star offensive player that's healthy, healthy coming out of this game.
5:24So I'm absolutely with you on the Jalen Hurts call.
5:27My first one here is going to be Brock pretty under thirty two and a half pass attempts.
5:33This one is at minus one twenty. Now, look, no Andrew Erickson here.
5:37So I didn't want to go over on everything.
5:40We know the undertaker is a big part of the show.
5:43So I wanted to hit a couple of unders here before I go to my overs.
5:48But a BP projection have him at thirty point nine pass attempts under thirty two and a half.
5:54He's only hit this one time in week one this season.
5:57That was the Australia game. Seven career starts against Seattle, and he's only gone over thirty two pass attempts once.
6:03Seattle is twenty fourth and pass attempts against as well.
6:07So I just think that Brock Purdy probably doesn't need to throw a thirty two and a half times in this game.
6:13What are your thoughts on Brock Purdy playing against the Seahawks in his past attempts here?
6:18Yeah, I think you're going to have a balanced attack out of the San Francisco forty nineers.
6:24He's not going to need to throw it up that many times.
6:27My only concern is if the Seattle Seahawks do get up, but I'm expecting it to be a tighter game between these
6:34two and him not to go over that number.
6:37And, you know, that defense are going to be all over him.
6:41They're going to put that pressure on him and they're going to find a way to get to him in this game
6:48if he holds the ball too long. So I love where you're going with that one.
6:53I think the thing that pushed me over when I'm doing, you know, looking up things was the fact that they played seven times.
7:00He's only gone over once. So I think this, you know, almost an AFC North ish type of game between these two,
7:07you know, grimy, dirty, big hits, that type of stuff.
7:10So I think it's probably best to keep Brock Purdy upright as well.
7:14Before we move on, let me tell you guys, you can find the NFL player prop bets with the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
7:22Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value.
7:28You can make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros dot com slash props.
7:34All right, Joe, what is number two for you?
7:36Well, I'm going to roll with another under and another quarterback here.
7:40I'm looking at Daniel Jones. I'm looking at his past attempts.
7:44And this number is just too high coming in at thirty one and a half.
7:48The Colts are facing the Steelers and we know how solid the Steelers defense is.
7:53And they're going to put that pressure on Daniel Jones in this one.
7:57You got Daniel Jones and the Colts returning from overseas as well.
8:01And the Steelers, they've allowed one hundred and fourteen passing attempts.
8:04So an average of twenty eight point five passing attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks.
8:09And I think this is going to be a hard one here for Daniel Jones to be able to put those passing attempts on the board.
8:17I'm looking for them to really rely on a heavy run game here with Jonathan Taylor and not have to utilize his
8:24arm because utilizing his arm against the secondary here.
8:27The Steelers is going to be a hard thing to do.
8:30Plus, his center didn't practice on Wednesday here. He was in a brace in a boot.
8:35So he's not going to be in the lineup if I had to say anything about it.
8:40So I think Daniel Jones stays under the number.
8:43This is where he tore his Achilles last year as well.
8:47It was in Pittsburgh. So that is nasty. Weird kind of return here.
8:51I don't know. The Steelers are so weird. You know, that's my team.
8:55So I watch them every single week. But the defense has been solid.
8:59So I think if you're smart, you run Jonathan Taylor way more than you let Daniel Jones put the ball in the air and get hit by T.J.
9:07Watt and Alex Highsmith. So I'm with you on that one.
9:11And guess what? We're going to go with another under.
9:14I swear I have overs here. We're going to play more overs than unders.
9:18But I'm going to go with another under. And it's Jordan Love under 33 and a half pass attempts at minus 109.
9:2532.4 is his total here. But he's gone over this twice.
9:29But Chicago has been hogging the ball. Chicago is first in time of possession right now.
9:3436-35 is their average. Green Bay, 31st in time of possession.
9:3726-14 is their average time of possession in games.
9:40And it's just a beat up Green Bay team right now.
9:43The offensive line, obviously, really, really shot. I don't know if you want Jordan Love standing back there passing this many times against Chicago.
9:51And Chicago's defense has been good enough. And their offense has been strong enough to not give the ball up.
9:57So six starts against the Bears in his career.
10:00And he has never had more than 32 pass attempts in a game against them.
10:04So another under here, we're channeling our Andrew Erickson Love and Jordan Love under 32 and a half.
10:10So what are your thoughts on this one, Joe?
10:13Brilliant. Jordan Love can't even make those passes anyway.
10:16So I don't think he's going to get those attempts out there.
10:19We know the Green Bay Packers are absolutely struggling.
10:22And I had so many hopes for the offense.
10:25But with Josh Jacobs out unable to establish that run, they can't get those pass attempts even.
10:30So I think it's a really solid way to go.
10:34So thank you. All right. What's next for you?
10:36I've gotten over for you guys. I'm looking at JSN versus Seattle.
10:40And I'm taking him over 94 and a half receiving yards at home versus the 49ers.
10:45And I look at the 49ers and I look at the injuries on this team.
10:50And I think JSN will absolutely feast. Now, I know last week versus the Chargers, he wasn't able to go over this
10:57number, which I was kind of shocked by with only 76 receiving yards in that on five receptions.
11:02But looking at all three of the other games this season, he's cleared 100 receiving yards.
11:07He had 128 at Washington, 155 at Arizona, and 122 versus New England.
11:11I'm looking for him to absolutely feast here as Sam Darnold feeds him the ball.
11:16Yeah, I know that large totals can be a little bit intimidating.
11:20I'm also on the Pukunakua over for Monday Night Football.
11:23I think his is 92 and a half. Like, it's these big totals, but you give the big guys the big totals, right?
11:30And that's exactly what JSN has been. And even our resident Niners fan, the Welsh, has said, look, they still can't cover, right?
11:37Like, things are getting better for San Francisco. They've looked really good, but they still are kind of weak on the back end.
11:44So I think JSN does say on this game, it's a high total, but one you don't need to be intimidated by because it is JSN.
11:52You give the big guys these big totals and they clear them routinely.
11:56I'm going to go with another big guy that is healthy right now, or at least we think so.
12:02Nico Collins over five and a half receptions. It's minus 122 at the Titans.
12:07He's passed this in both of the games that he's played.
12:10Eight targets, seven catches, 115 and two scores against Dallas.
12:13Before that, it was seven for 75 and a score in the first game of the season.
12:19But wide receivers versus Tennessee, I mean, three of the big dogs have cleared this in the four games that they played.
12:25Zaday Flowers had eight for 118 and a score.
12:28Devontae Smith had 13 targets, 10 catches, 117 and a score.
12:32And Garrett Wilson had seven targets, six catches and 79 yards.
12:35So everyone has gone over this five and a half fairly easy.
12:39We saw how much better this offense moved with Nico Collins in there.
12:43Hopefully we can get something just a little bit from David Montgomery.
12:47My gosh, has he been just a ghost the last three weeks?
12:50It's been terrible. So but everything in this offense moves better.
12:54And we saw CJ Stroud, even though they lost last week, it was one of CJ Stroud's best games in the regular season that he's ever played.
13:02So hopefully we're getting more of that moving forward for the Texans.
13:06They're depressing H-Town. That's where I live. So they have not been liking this start for the Texans.
13:12My fault, by the way. I did pick them to go to the Super Bowl.
13:16So this is on me. It's totally on you.
13:19Why did you do that? I'm stupid. I watched him beat my Steelers into the dirt in the playoffs.
13:25And I go, OK, you get CJ Stroud coming back.
13:28He played better down the stretch. You improve your offensive line.
13:32You have this killer defense and the defense has been the problem.
13:35And they haven't made many changes. That's kind of crazy.
13:38So, yep, Houston, you can blame me. This is completely my fault.
13:42A hundred percent that the Texans have been bad.
13:45But what are your thoughts on Nico Collins here against Tennessee?
13:48There might be a little weather here as well coming off that hurricane.
13:53Yeah, against Tennessee here, he definitely should be able to put those receptions up on the board.
13:58The Houston Texans need to find a way to dig deep and get a win.
14:02And I still can't believe they're sitting in the position they are.
14:06Because I was like you. I believed in that defense.
14:09And I'm not sure what really happened to this defense that we saw last season.
14:14Because I expected them to come out so much stronger.
14:17And I kind of doubted CJ Stroud out there.
14:20I didn't expect him to be able to make those clutch plays when needed as much as he has so far this season.
14:27So, I think this is the game where you want to go in on Houston.
14:32It's the Titans here. Then the Titans are going to struggle, right?
14:36They're going to struggle to stop them. And hopefully this defense comes to play.
14:40So, I'd totally roll with Nico Collins over. The Titans' offense might be the biggest issue.
14:45Like, I think the players on defense are okay.
14:48But the offense holds the ball so little. Lots of three and outs.
14:52Cam Ward has not been putting it together. They haven't been putting pressure to score.
14:56So, teams run in the second half against them.
14:59But I think you go to Nico early. You go to Nico often when he's healthy.
15:04And I think we're going to see a continuation of that for sure here.
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15:50Just $10. All right, Joe. What is number four for you here?
15:54Okay. I'm rolling with Tyson Badgett. Of the Chicago Bears in Lambeau versus the Packers, I'm taking him over 10 and a half rushing yards.
16:02Now, I'm not asking him to be Caleb Williams and them to design schemes out here for him to run the ball.
16:09But you're looking at a Packers defense that has allowed 78 rushing yards so far on 22 attempts to opposing quarterbacks.
16:15And they're going to put that pressure on Tyson Badgett.
16:18And as they put that pressure on him, I do think he should be able to scramble enough to go over 10 and a half.
16:26It's not asking a lot. We've seen quarterbacks that are completely unmobile, like Matt Stafford, be able to go over this number.
16:33So I think Tyson Badgett could easily go over this.
16:36And when we look here at what the Packers have allowed, you know, you look at Daniels last week, the undrafted rookie coming out.
16:44Eight rushing attempts for 55 rushing yards. Tyson Badgett can get there.
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17:14A decade ago, the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil.
17:19So we met with a lot of larger farmers, went from Bahia to Tocatines to Mato Grosso.
17:24And he brought a team of executives. They were going to help the country get in on a gold rush.
17:31Carbon and its derivatives are going to be really the next great commodity that the globe's going to trade.
17:36But back home in Iowa, trouble was brewing. If you live in Iowa, your land, your water, and your voice could all
17:43be at risk thanks to a man named Bruce Rastetter.
17:46Now people are questioning if his climate solutions have anything to do with climate at all.
17:51You gotta give Bruce and the guys credit. They're Republican.
17:55On this season of Drilled, Carbon Cowboys, the story of how the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in
18:01Brazil, and what it tells us about the limits of technology and markets to solve the climate crisis.
18:07Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
18:11The WNBA playoffs are about to begin. The talent is insane, and the personalities are giving main character energy.
18:17And of course, the fans love it. But 30 years ago, when the league first started, it was a different story.
18:24I remember sitting with a couple of male writers, all whining about, oh, what are they going to do if they break a nail?
18:31No one's going to show up. But from the very beginning, there were two teams that captured everyone's attention.
18:37The Comets were the real deal. I mean, come on.
18:40The Liberty never gave up. They never stopped fighting.
18:43I knew that rivalry was going to be amazing from the beginning.
18:47I'm Keri Champion, and this is Biggest Rivalries of All Time, Season 2.
18:51The New York Liberty versus the Houston Comets, the very first rivalry of the WNBA.
18:55They picked us to finish last, and they picked them to finish first.
18:59That's all you need to know. I remember looking around, thinking, this is going to change things.
19:05Basketball was going to have this fundamental impact on the way people viewed women athletes.
19:09Listen to Biggest Rivalries of All Time on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
19:15Is there bad blood between you and the Comets as you guys meet again in the championship?
19:21Oh, we're coming back to win. Yeah, and we mentioned before, too, right, the time of possession.
19:26It's just so heavy in favor of Chicago against everybody.
19:29Everybody. And the Packers almost dead last, 31st in time of possession.
19:33So you talk about a guy that's going to have extra opportunities to get you these rushing yards.
19:38It should be Bajan and the Bears this week against the Packers.
19:42I think, you know, I still think the Packers are one of the better teams.
19:47But when you're missing a bunch of parts of your offensive line, you start running back pieces on defense, too.
19:53Like you're going to get Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons back at some point.
19:57Right. I do think things are going to look better for the Packers moving forward.
20:02But right now, it's just a really tough spot that they're in.
20:06And Chicago looks strong. And Chicago doing this all with backup quarterbacks is also weird.
20:11But we know Ben Johnson really wants to beat the Packers.
20:14He hates the Packers. Like all I like that he embraced that, too.
20:18Like if you're going to be a Bears guy, you should hate the Packers.
20:22If you're going to be a Packers guy, you should hate the Bears.
20:26Right. So we love that type of rivalry stuff, especially, you know, being an AFC North man.
20:32I love to hate my rivals for sure. I think this one's my favorite pick of the week.
20:37And it's one that BP did not agree with me on.
20:41So maybe take it with a grain of salt.
20:44But Michael Wilson over five and a half receptions.
20:46First Detroit was plus money. When I looked at it, plus 115, he's seventh in receptions in the league so far.
20:53He's cleared this easy two weeks in a row.
20:5617 targets, 11 catches, 89 yards. And a score against the Niners.
21:0013 targets, 7 catches, 95 yards at the Giants.
21:02Detroit has allowed the most receptions to wide receivers.
21:0561 receptions for 829 yards and five touchdowns. We talked about it earlier.
21:09Man, is Detroit's secondary rough. It is. It's like almost historically bad at this point.
21:14It looks terrible. And the Cardinals, their defense is going to give up points, right?
21:19This is why this is, I believe, the highest point total of the week of 54 and a half are tied for it.
21:26So Vegas expects a lot of points. I expect a lot of points.
21:30You know, Brissette has been targeting Michael Wilson. You know, Marvin Harrison caught that touchdown in the first quarter last week and
21:37then saw three other targets and didn't catch a single one of them.
21:41It's been all Trey McBride. It's been all Michael Wilson here.
21:44So this is why I said I'm big on this one.
21:48And the dude has had 30 targets in the last two games.
21:51Yeah, I think five and a half is definitely doable for Michael Wilson against the Lions here.
21:57Well, especially when you're going to get plus money.
21:59How can you say no if you're getting plus money for the over five and a half?
22:05And yeah, he should hit around eight out there.
22:08You said it about Detroit. We watched them in that last game and it was depressing watching what they were giving up out there.
22:15I was pulling out my hair because I was rolling with Detroit in that one and they just weren't able to get it done.
22:22So I would look there as well. I think the Cardinals might win that game.
22:27And I know Welsh did not like that take, but I think the Cardinals have a chance.
22:32And when they're at home and the Lions have been playing some bad football right now.
22:37So sorry, Detroit fans. I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade here, but I think it'll get better for them, too.
22:44They're going to get their safeties back, but it's rough on the perimeter for them for sure.
22:50And that's I think it's going to be a big Michael Wilson day.
22:54What's your last prop that you have here, Joe?
22:56I'm turning back to that Texans game at Tennessee, and I'm looking at Woody Marks here for his rushing and receiving over 39 and a half.
23:05You said it earlier. David Montgomery is just not getting going.
23:08And we're seeing more workload coming in here for Woody Marks.
23:11And I'm looking for the Texans to get up in this one and them having to rely on that run game with
23:18them having to rely on the run game. We're going to see Woody Marks in there.
23:23But I want to be cautious with that, because if all of a sudden Cam Ward and the offense of the Titans
23:30somehow get stuff going and it's a competitive game, you know, CJ Stroud's going to be put in the position where he
23:37has to throw that ball as well. And so the rushing and receiving for Woody Marks, 39 and a half is such a doable number.
23:45He's only averaging 21.8 rushing yards, but 7.8 receiving.
23:48I think he gets, you know, 10 receiving, but 30 rushing yards.
23:51So we'll get there. This is surprising to me.
23:54I guess it shouldn't be because of what we've seen.
23:57But I just went and looked at the snap counts for the Texans, right?
24:02268 total. How do you think that split between Montgomery and Woody Marks?
24:06I think Woody Marks has a majority. He doesn't, but it's 146 to 122.
24:10It is within 24 snaps over, you know, four games.
24:13That's six snaps a game. That's barely any difference at all.
24:17And we all thought Monty was going to come in here and be, or at least I did.
24:22I shouldn't speak for you. But I thought Monty was going to come in here and be the bell cow for this team.
24:29I thought so too. Yeah, he's a three down back.
24:33And it seemed like last season, when they spoke about Woody Marks, they were consistently speaking about how Woody Marks was a very good receiving back, right?
24:41And that's kind of how they viewed him was as a third down back.
24:45Well, they're not using him like that this year at all.
24:49He's a three down guy. And that is how they've been using him.
24:53And I think that is going to continue moving forward here.
24:56So my last pick that I have here, this was a hard one, but I just saw this low number and plus money.
25:03And again, I had to go after it. It's R.J.
25:07Harvey over five and a half rush attempts at the Chargers plus 106.
25:11This just seems way too low to me, even with his low production and them passing him the ball last week.
25:17He still had seven carries for 25 yards. The Chargers, I mean, teams have been beating the Chargers into the dirt.
25:24So they have allowed the fourth most rush attempts in the league this season at 105.
25:29I know J.K. Dobbins is still the main guy in terms of running the ball here.
25:34The script flipped. It was more R.J. Harvey in the second half catching the ball.
25:38He led them. I think he had 10 catches last week.
25:42So very solid week for R.J. Harvey last week.
25:45I also think that he's just still the better back between him and Dobbins.
25:49So I think five and a half is way too low.
25:52This is a plus 106. So we'll see how it changes going into the weekend.
25:57But I think just five and a half rush attempts for R.J.
26:01Harvey is a bit too low for me. What do you think?
26:05Well, did you hear the news? The fake news on Denver here?
26:08It just dropped right before we started recording. Sean Payton's taken back over the play calling.
26:13Oh, yes, yes. I did see that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
26:16I love that. Right. Sean Payton is going to turn to that run game and turn to that run game heavy.
26:23I'm not sure why they ever tried anything else.
26:26Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind out there, and he is going to have him just clicking.
26:31So I love where you're going with that. I can't say no.
26:35Yeah, yeah. That's it's just too low of a total plus money, you know, so are terrible.
26:40They're my team. I can say that Chargers fans.
26:43You can hate me, but I'm sure you all agree with me.
26:47Our team's terrible. Yeah, Joe has been, you know, we talk before and after the Monday Night Football live stream.
26:53You've been complaining about your team the whole year.
26:56And who can blame you? They look miserable. What do you think about the Justin Herbert and Madison Beer memes that we've seen?
27:03Those are those are pretty good. I also saw one that said it was an action figure and it says Justin Herbert
27:10in his post game is his post NFL career.
27:13And he's in a subway outfit. So, you know, trade him.
27:16The Chargers need to trade him. And I'm going to say that he can go somewhere else and have more success.
27:23Right. The Chargers. Look what they did to Philip Rivers.
27:26Look what they always do to their playmakers out there.
27:29We had LT and this team still couldn't get to the Super Bowl.
27:33Like, come on. It's Tom Brady. Right. And Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning in the AFC.
27:38So I'm not going to you can't blame all of it on them.
27:42But that was a bad era that that Philip Rivers was in.
27:46But you think he'd get the one. Yeah. Come on.
27:49It's our coaching choices. Right. Out there. That's what I was going to say.
27:53Do you think you'd rather have them fire Harbaugh than trade Harbaugh and McDaniel?
27:57Let them both go. But the Chargers are always played.
28:01There's always something happening with the Chargers ever since.
28:03I've been a fan of them. Maybe it's my fault.
28:07Maybe it's your defeatist. You got the defeatist attitude for sure.
28:10They're going to they're going to get better, I think.
28:13And I think, you know, four weeks, I saw people saying Caleb Downs was a bust after four weeks.
28:19I'm like, it's four weeks, guys. Like, let's relax.
28:22Let's take a beat here. I don't want to be like Aaron Rodgers, but maybe you do need to relax a little bit.
28:29That's that's a bit much. The only team that's ever gone.
28:32Oh, and for me, the playoffs was the San Diego Chargers in what?
28:36Ninety two. So there's still hope. Chargers fans want to hear that.
28:40But the superchargers as Berman used to call them.
28:43But yeah, I mean, I feel like I just quit calling them San Diego like last year.
28:48So, you know, been better about it, but never perfect.
28:51All right. So we're going to go to our anytime touchdowns and first touchdown calls.
28:56But let me tell you guys, if you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown
29:03stats, the prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets.
29:08Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today.
29:11All right, Joe, anytime touchdowns. What do you got for us?
29:15OK, I've got Garrett Wilson, the wide receiver of the Jets for his anytime touchdown.
29:20It's coming in at plus 140. He's got two touchdowns on the season.
29:24Definitely looking for his third here versus the Cleveland Browns.
29:27Now, one of the biggest issues with the Cleveland Browns is their ability to limit that passing attack out there.
29:33They've allowed the second most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers through the first two weeks.
29:38And Garrett Wilson will be targeted there in the end zone.
29:41So I know it's not as much value as you want at plus 140, but I still think it's doable.
29:47I like it. Who's number two for you? Number two.
29:50I'm rolling with Stefan Diggs for the anytime tidy coming in at plus 170.
29:55Now he's got three touchdowns on the season. He's looking for number four.
29:59Washington is at home in this one versus the Giants.
30:02Now, this is a big question mark if Stefan Diggs is playing.
30:06I do think he's going to play in this one.
30:09And with Jaden Daniels back in the lineup because Stefan Diggs is dealing with a hamstring injury.
30:14But if he's good to go, he's going to get those targets.
30:18He's already seen four targets there in the red zone.
30:21And the Giants defense has allowed the seventh most touchdowns to wide receivers.
30:25I like it. And what's the I think these guys, by the way, do two for you.
30:30We're going to do three. So what do you have for your third?
30:34Oh, third. We're getting a great plus money here with Bo Nix for the anytime tidy versus my charger is coming in at plus 410.
30:42I think it's a sneaky play here. We've seen him with one rushing touchdown on the season.
30:47That was versus the Rams in week three in that 30 to 26 win.
30:52And the Chargers have already given up two rushing touchdowns thus far on the season to opposing quarterbacks.
30:57That was Josh Allen in both of those. And I know Bo Nix is no Josh Allen, but Bo Nix has the mobility.
31:05And in that tight situation in the end zone, he's able to make those calls on himself.
31:10So I like Bo Nix, especially with Sean Payton back calling the plays.
31:14Yeah, I like these calls. These are definitely some strong ones.
31:17Bo Nix, I feel like I missed that one like six times last year.
31:22I called Bo Nix for a rushing touchdown so many times.
31:25And I feel like I was the cooler. So hopefully you're the heater on Bo Nix because I can't go back to it.
31:32I missed it too many times last year. This week for my touchdown calls, I'm going to go Nico Collins.
31:39We already talked about the receptions against Tennessee plus five and a half or five and a half or more.
31:45We're on that. And it's plus 140 here for him to score touchdowns.
31:49Scored a couple last week as well. I just think that he is at this point when you don't have much of
31:56a run game, who is more likely to score a touchdown on the Texans and Nico Collins.
32:01And they have a really good matchup here this week against Tennessee.
32:05So hopefully the rain and wind doesn't impact this.
32:08And it looks the weather report that we had was not terrible.
32:11It was 47% chance of rain when I looked today.
32:15So that doesn't that doesn't guarantee us rain. But if we do get a nasty storm, of course, come off of those.
32:21But I think this is going to be a clear enough game for Nico to score at least one.
32:27My next one. This one's in a dome. So no, no excuses here.
32:31Trey McBride plus 120 versus Detroit. I mean, they just they're going to go to him early and often.
32:37It's every single week. I don't know that there is a pass catcher that is more likely to score a touchdown on
32:44a week to week basis than Trey McBride. So when I see it at plus money, it's almost an auto take.
32:51So Trey McBride plus 120 against a miserable Detroit Lions secondary right now at home.
32:55No referees cursing at him. I think he's going to be much better this week.
33:00So plus 120. We're going there and then I'll throw a dart on a deeper one.
33:05We just heard that Michael Pittman is going to miss this game and multiple other games.
33:10So I'm going to go to Roman Wilson because his number was sitting at plus 250 against the Colts.
33:16Aaron Rodgers loves this dude. We saw him get the pop pass on Thursday Night Football and score on that one.
33:23He's had a couple of chunk gainers as well.
33:25Colt secondary been playing well. If you're not sauce Gardner, man, sauce Gardner is getting torched out there.
33:31They traded two first round picks for this dude, too.
33:34So a little bit surprising, but so mine are going to be a Nico Collins, Trey McBride and Roman Wilson as my anytime touchdown calls.
33:42Joe, these are impossible. First touchdown calls. They're not my favorite.
33:45We'll give you a couple here because the boys have been doing it.
33:49But what are your thoughts on first touchdown scores?
33:52What do you have for us? Yeah, they're a little bit fun and they're a lot fun for the bank account when they do cash.
34:00So my first one's going to go with St.
34:03Brown's for the Lions coming in at plus 700 versus the Arizona Cardinals.
34:07He's already racked up five touchdowns through the first four games and Arizona's past defense has struggled giving up 11 passing touchdowns.
34:14So we need Detroit to have the ball first because otherwise I think the Cardinals are going to score.
34:20You've already talked about your touchdowns there with McBride and he has every ability to get the first touchdown if the Cardinals have the ball for us.
34:28So Lions St. Brown plus 700. Let's take a shot.
34:31Yeah, look, I'm more than willing to have Trey McBride score the second touchdown of this game.
34:36So as long as he gets in the end zone at some point, that's all we care about.
34:42Yeah. And then I'm going to look at Justin Jefferson for the first touchdowns for the Vikings at the Saints.
34:48That's coming in at plus 800. Now, this is another one if he plays because of that ankle sprain, but everything is pointing to him playing here.
34:57Why? Well, because this is his home state of Louisiana and the first time he's going to be able to play here
35:04in front of his home state and he is so eager to get out there.
35:08This is a storyline bet, right? Justin Jefferson, if we get the Vikings getting the ball first, he's going to want to be that first.
35:16Sorry. He's going to make sure he gets open out there for Kyler Murray.
35:20So I'm going to roll with that one. Good luck on these first touchdowns here.
35:25Yeah, we'll see. These, these are hard to hit and we're fighting too, because my first touchdown call is going to be Aaron Jones.
35:33Uh, not nearly the payout of Justin Jefferson though.
35:35It's half at plus 400, but geez, are they giving the ball to Aaron Jones so many times they do not trust DJ Dallas.
35:43They do not trust them and Claiborne. I kind of like Claiborne coming out of wake forest.
35:48Uh, you know, I think he fits this system real well, but obviously not everything working perfectly for the Vikings, uh, quite
35:55yet on offense for him to get the ball anyway.
35:58But Aaron Jones has been touching the ball 20 plus times, I think two weeks in a row.
36:04So, uh, that's why I have him at plus 400.
36:07If you get four to one on a guy touching the ball that many times, I'm going to be all over it.
36:14And then my other one, just because the number is huge and I love this guy, Isaiah likely plus 1300 at Washington.
36:21Who knows who is going to score first in this game?
36:24Very strange one, but a division rivalry game and Winston's been going to likely.
36:28So I was kind of afraid that when Jackson dart went down, I don't know what's going to happen here.
36:35Obviously neighbors is your main guy in New York, but Isaiah likely has continued to be the number two target here.
36:41So plus 1300, 13 to one, we really like those odds.
36:45So let's recap, Joe, you are going with, if I can scroll back up to it here, Daniel Jones, that's your second one.
36:52Um, the first one is Jalen hurts under six and a half rush attempts.
36:56You're going Daniel Jones under 31 and a half pass attempts.
37:00You are going JSN over 94 and a half receiving yards.
37:03You are going Tyson Bajan over 10 and a half rushing yards.
37:07And then Woody marks over 39 and a half.
37:10Uh, is that Russian receiving yards? Is that both?
37:12Yeah. That's, that's a great number. I don't even think, I thought you said rushing.
37:17That's a great number for rushing and receiving. That's a really good one for me.
37:22I'm going Brock Purdy under 32 and a half pass attempts.
37:25We are going to go with Jordan love under 33 and a half pass attempts.
37:30That's it for my unders. We're going Nico Collins over five and a half receptions against Tennessee.
37:35We're going Michael Wilson over five and a half receptions against Detroit and RJ Harvey over five and a half rush attempts at the Chargers.
37:43And then for our touchdown calls, Joe, you have Garrett Wilson, Stefan digs, boo Nix scoring for anytime touchdowns.
37:49I've got Nico Collins, Trey McBride and Roman Wilson.
37:52And then first touchdowns, you've got a Monra and Justin Jefferson.
37:55And I have got Aaron Jones and Isaiah likely any other props that we missed here, Joe, that we didn't hit, uh,
38:02on the sheet that you want to throw out there.
38:05I know you like some defensive calls, but I don't know if they come out this early.
38:10What, what, what would you have anything there or anything extra to offer us?
38:15Well, yeah, I'd look at the Denver Broncos in every single way.
38:19I'd look for that defensive touchdown. Look at what the Chargers are up against.
38:23The only player on that offensive line, basically, that isn't a no name that no one knows is the backup center out there for the Chargers.
38:31The whole offensive line is decimated. If you look at the Denver Broncos, Nick Benito, Zach Allen for those anytime sacks, you
38:38look at the interception, the pick six, I'll be all over that on Sunday.
38:42I love it. The self-deprecating Chargers fan picking against our team.
38:46Hey, look, if they're not going to win for you, they can make you some money.
38:51Exactly. And that's exactly how I feel on it.
38:53Yeah, that's exactly how you should feel on it.
38:56But that is going to wrap things up for us today.
39:00Before we head out, make sure to like the video.
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39:15For Joe Madden, I am Scott Bogman. We will see you guys next time.
39:19Welsh and Erickson back next week. Take it easy, everybody.
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