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0:22Welcome in to the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:25I'm Alfredo Brown, joined by Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown.
0:28And today, what we're telling you guys, don't draft these running backs.
0:31We're looking at some busts that we want to avoid.
0:35And gentlemen, before we even talk about all of this, I need to know, Pat, I'll start with you.
0:40How do you even define or identify what a bust might be in fantasy football?
0:45Kind of a moving target, Alfredo. Like in the end, it's all about price.
0:49But yeah, there are reasons why certain running back prices look unappealing.
0:53A bad offensive line, limited touchdown potential in a bad offense, maybe some stiff backfield competition, lack of pass catching potential, advanced
1:00age, incompatible scheme fit, and maybe some combination of those concerns.
1:03I have a feeling we're going to touch on some of those concerns with different guys today.
1:09Yeah, it feels like almost every single one of those.
1:12D-Bro, how about you? How do you identify a bust before drafting them?
1:16I think the beginning of Pat's entire, and I agree with everything Pat laid out there, but the beginning of his diatribe
1:23there of it's not maybe the player, it's the price is a lot of what this comes down to, whether it's previous
1:30production hype outpacing what we're actually projecting for a player or the offense, a guy reaching the efficiency age cliff, or as
1:36Pat and I have kind of discussed on previous episodes, when the best selling point is, well, who else is going to get volume?
1:44The kind of all paints a nasty picture if you kind of pop open the hood of a player that like, do
1:51we really want to draft this guy? Yeah, I think the even more eloquent way to put it is don't hate the player, hate the game.
1:59Exactly what you were talking about here is we don't actually hate players.
2:03We hate ADPs. We don't want to draft those ADPs, and there's going to be plenty of reasons why we talk about that today.
2:10But before we do, guys, I want to let you know the Fantasy Pros Premium subscription is a great tool for you
2:17guys to have because spotting potential busts is easier when you have the right data.
2:22With Fantasy Pros Premium, you can access draft tools and analysis that help you determine who to pick and when.
2:28Again, we've got a three day free trial going on right now at fantasypros.com slash free.
2:33Prepare for your draft with Fantasy Pros Premium. All right, guys, the players we're going to look at here are seven running
2:40backs, and we'll start this off by someone that we all agree with here, a running back bust being taken in the first two rounds of Fantasy Drafts.
2:49And I don't really have to throw it to anyone to reveal this because we all agree.
2:54It's Devon Achan, running back for the Miami Dolphins.
2:57And Pat, I want to start with you, your thoughts here on Devon Achan because he was a guy that I think
3:04probably won a lot of people championships last year.
3:06And I hate fading a player who I love and think is fantastic, but I think the real time ADP for him
3:13is like still mid range running back one. Miami is in all likelihood going to have one of the worst offenses in the league.
3:21Not a lot of touchdown potential for Devon Achan.
3:24And just I don't see him reaching the pass catching ceiling.
3:27He has hit the last two years with 78 receptions in 2024, 67 last year.
3:32I think he might be lucky to get to 55 this year.
3:35I mean, Malik Willis is never really thrown to his backs that much.
3:39It stands to reason that maybe they make Devon Achan a little bit of a focal point of the passing game.
3:46But I just I don't think there's 78 reception upside here at all.
3:50Deber, how do you look at the situation for Achan in Miami?
3:54Yeah, I'm with I'm surprisingly with real time ADP.
3:57He's RB nine 15th overall. I have met RB nine, but that doesn't mean that I find myself walking away from a
4:03lot of drafts with any drafts right now to this point of all the leagues I've already drafted with Devon Achan.
4:10And it's because of a lot of the points of Patty laid out.
4:14Like what are real touchdown expectations for Achan? Like if he takes a step back, if he gets only like six to
4:21seven, maybe eight touchdowns this year, like is he going to pay off?
4:25Then you look at Malik Willis had a 5.7% check down rate last year, and I know it's a crazy small sample,
4:32but just like extrapolating that out amongst all quarterbacks.
4:35If he'd had 100 drop backs, he would have been tied for the six lowest check down rate.
4:40And yes, there's something to be said of like a chance involvement in the passing game making easy button throws from Malik
4:47Willis and the lack of pass catching up options, at least as we're looking at their depth chart right now.
4:53But this all goes back to is he going to pay off like I think he can be an RB one based
5:00on our top 15 based off of volume. But is a chain a guy where you're just kind of like hoping praying
5:07crossing everything you physically have to say, please, please pay off on your cost and don't crush me by not doing that.
5:14Like I don't see the ceiling of him being a guy where and this is where like if I'm drafting a lot
5:21of these back end RB ones, I'm like, can you be top five?
5:25Can you be top three if everything works out like I just don't see the ceiling for H and to do that?
5:31That's why I think he's an avoid for me.
5:34Yeah, he's an avoid all the way around here.
5:37You guys mentioned the touchdown ceiling last year, 12 touchdowns that propelled him to a really good fantasy season.
5:43And the bigger thing is honestly, it's the receptions that he's got over the last two years.
5:48Debra, you mentioned the five point seven percent check down rate for Malik Willis last year.
5:53Only four QBs had a lower rate. But you go back to 2024 with a slightly larger scale here.
5:59One point nine percent check down rate lowest among any quarterbacks with a pass attempt.
6:04So, yeah, if we're talking about taking away touchdowns from Devon H and taking away receptions from Devon H and sure there's
6:11going to be production and that Dolphins offense might surprise some people, but not enough at his current cost.
6:17So we are all in agreement there. All right, boys, this is where we get to let you guys, you know, freelance a little bit.
6:24Let's see what you got here. Pat Fitzmaurice, who is going to be the first running back that you're avoiding at his current ADP.
6:32Jadarian Price, whose ADP is RB 26, 60th overall.
6:35The appeal with Price is that he's a first round draft pick selected by a seemingly running back needy team that likes to run the ball.
6:43But I don't know if we should be so eager to chase after Jadarian Price when the Seattle coaching regime was using
6:50Kenneth Walker as a committee back last season. And we know Walker is good.
6:54And I would contend that he had a much better prospect profile than Jadarian Price.
6:59So in fairness, Price was blocked by Jeremiah Love at Notre Dame.
7:02So we didn't get to see a lot of him.
7:05Didn't get a chance to see whether he could be a bell cow in college.
7:10But Price did flash talent just in a small sample size.
7:14He hasn't really shown much pass catching aptitude, though, and he's had some fumbling issues.
7:18Zach Charbonnet is coming back from his ACL injury at some point, possibly early in the season.
7:24George Helani is going to get some passing down work.
7:27The Seahawks signed Emmanuel Wilson in free agency. This feels like dangerous territory with Price.
7:31I mean, it was only eight years ago that the Seahawks drafted Rashad Penny late in the first round.
7:37So maybe we should be a little bit worried about something of a repeat here.
7:42And what feels most egregious, I think, about taking Price around the fifth round, sixth round turn is that he's going ahead
7:49of wide receivers like DJ Moore, Mike Evans, Christian Watson, Jamison Williams.
7:52I can't do that. I can't take Jadarian Price ahead of quality wide receivers.
7:57I think a lot of the argument so far with Price has been, well, you get the starter touches, right?
8:03And you're going to get that early in the season.
8:06But then really, what's the ceiling down the line?
8:09And when Zach Charbonnet does come back, how much does that ceiling shrink in that Seattle Seahawks offense?
8:15And we're also just under the impression that the Seattle Seahawks offense is going to be as good as it was last
8:21year without Ken Walker and just without Clint Kubiak.
8:24These are all things that may not happen the same as they did last year.
8:29So, yeah, Jadarian Price kind of freaks me out a little bit here.
8:33Debro, you've got an interesting one because this is a name a lot more people are going to know.
8:39And a lot more people might be taking a little higher in drafts.
8:43Jeremiah Love, RB13, 27th overall in real-time ADP. Like, again, this comes down to, like, I do not hate the player.
8:49I think Jeremiah Love is another worldly talent. I think, like, he's Reggie Bush 2.0, except he can pay off on the
8:56hype and hope that Reggie Bush had. But do I want to invest in that player at RB freaking 13, like knocking
9:03on the door of being an RB1 for the Cardinals offense?
9:07With Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, or Carson Beck as quarterback this year?
9:10Like, on a team that might not win the game.
9:13But didn't you see the whole game? Carson Beck looks so good.
9:17Oh, dude, the Carson Beck glazing has gotten just insane.
9:20Like, all I took that as is we really miss football.
9:24We really, really did. Everybody really missed football, man.
9:26Like, but this all comes back to, like, yes, easily could I make a comparison against Ashton Gentry of last year?
9:33Here's the other comparison, boys. What about Bajon Robinson in his rookie season?
9:37Tyler Algier was there, and now he's in Arizona.
9:40That's not even, we're not even talking about James Conner.
9:43Does he play a role? Does he get traded?
9:46What does all this look like? And again, it's like, if Love is not going to be the guy, because he's a
9:53weapon in the past, passing attack, are they going to use him enough in that way?
9:58Because you still got Trey McBride. You still got Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson.
10:02They got Kendrick Bourne. Is Jeremiah Love going to get, like, is he going to get enough targets to pay off?
10:08Is he going to get enough touchdowns to pay off?
10:12Is he going to have the red zone role to pay off?
10:15All of these are massive concerns where you see those concerns echoed in the ADPs of, like, all pass catchers not making Trey McBride.
10:23But everybody's saying 10 toes down, like, yeah, Jeremiah Love is going to be an RB1 in fantasy.
10:28I don't hate the player. I absolutely hate this price.
10:32Can I push back gently here? Please. Please do.
10:34I just want to say, from 2015 to 2025, there were eight running backs taken with top 12 overall picks in the NFL draft.
10:42Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Ashton Gentry.
10:47Those eight running backs averaged 1,474 yards from scrimmage and 10.9 touchdowns as rookies.
10:51And, yeah, I mean, I know the argument is that the Cardinals are terrible, but the winning percentage of the teams that
10:58drafted those eight rookie running backs in the seasons before they were drafted was a collective 32%.
11:0332%, 320. So those teams were mostly terrible, too.
11:06And, you know, I just I had to say something when I heard Kendrick Bourne as a reason not to draft Jeremiah Love.
11:13I'll give you another counterpoint, Fitzy. Nathaniel Hackett says, hold my beer.
11:17I've seen this man run out Melvin Gordon over Javante Williams in previous stops.
11:21So as much as we love. Come on. Wow, dude, come on.
11:25Like, at that point in his career over Javante Williams?
11:28Yeah, we're getting kind of crazy. Well, we had the Nathaniel Hackett experience as well in New York with Brees Hall.
11:35We've actually had the Nathaniel Hackett experience in Jacksonville with Leonard Fournette, a guy you mentioned where it was Leonard Fournette and Chris Ivory, if I remember correctly.
11:43And we've seen it in Green Bay with with Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams.
11:48And I will say, like, it's a kind of a play devil's advocate for both sides here.
11:53Nathaniel Hackett has done a thing where he will split that backfield.
11:57Right. But I will say for Jeremiah Love, maybe he pays off his ADP because the touches he's going to get out
12:04of the backfield are going to be slightly more valuable because their targets.
12:08Now, is the ceiling there for him to be a top five guy?
12:12Probably not. But I think there's also a good receiving floor that we have here.
12:16So he's actually one of these guys like I'm not actively targeting him, but I'm not super grossed out by where he's
12:23going, especially if it's the third round. So there we go.
12:27Everyone wins. Look at that. Pat, you've got another guy on here, obviously running back.
12:31And it's another guy that's going to be in a committee backfield.
12:35Yeah. Ramondre Stevenson running back 28, 72nd overall on ADP.
12:38Stevenson is a good NFL running back, but a late sixth round or early seventh round pick seems way too aggressive for
12:45a guy with a really explosive playmaker behind him.
12:48And assuming good health for Ramondre Stevenson and Travion Henderson, this is a committee.
12:52I know we got a heavy dose of Ramondre in last year's playoffs and not too much of Henderson, but I don't
12:59think that's the way it's going to be when the curtain goes up on the 2026 season.
13:04Like Henderson is just too explosive. He had four runs of 50 or more yards last year.
13:10Stevenson has had three runs of 40 or more yards over five NFL seasons.
13:14Like there's no question which of these two guys is faster, more explosive.
13:18And what if Josh McDaniels adjust the dials at running back this year and it's 60-40 Henderson?
13:23Like we could absolutely see that happen, especially if Travion gets better at pass blocking, which was said to be one of his strengths coming out of college.
13:32Or if Ramondre's fumbling issues pop up again. This guy's fumbled on 2% of his NFL carries.
13:37So yeah, looking at Fantasy Pro's real-time ADP, Ramondre's going just ahead of Kyle Pitts, Carnell Tate, Parker Washington.
13:43I know none of those guys are completely can't miss.
13:46Maybe Parker Washington is. But I do feel like all those guys are safer picks than Ramondre.
13:52D-Bro, how are we feeling about Ramondre Stevenson? I'm more pro-Ramondre than Patty is.
13:56And this is not like Travion Henderson hate. But to Patty's point, Ramondre Stevenson, 6.9% explosive run rate.
14:02Travion was only 5.6%. Ramondre beat him in basically every single metric that I care about last year.
14:07And there's context to all of this. Like, I love Travion as a prospect.
14:12I think he was very slow out the gate.
14:14I think a lot of the things, like his pass pro, which we all kind of like walked into and said, this dude's a dog.
14:22He's struggling in that area. Could this backfield flip this year?
14:26It's definitely possible. The other, like, to play devil's advocate, like, this coaching staff has said, like, they love Ramondre Stevenson.
14:32They kept giving him the ball last year despite the fumbling stuff and things like that.
14:37It could easily continue that way this year. Although I will concede we could see it flip, too.
14:43So. Something that I'm intrigued by is the Patriots want to go faster this year.
14:47And I wonder how much a faster pace of play leans into the style of Travion Henderson, of being out in space,
14:54catching balls, and being able to line up a bit more as a receiver and do some of these things.
15:00But, hey, everyone's got to play until they get punched in the mouth, right?
15:05Mike Tyson said that. Or Gandhi, one of the two.
15:08I can't remember. But, yeah. Patriots, good luck this season.
15:11Guys, let us know, as you're watching or listening to this, let us know in the comments who you agree with, what
15:18players you are avoiding in your fantasy drafts. And before we keep going on, I want to remind all of you that
15:25we've got the Fantasy Pros draft assistant. Avoiding a bust is important, but the decision gets harder when you're actually on the clock.
15:32I know. It gets really nerve-wracking. But the draft assistant gives real-time pick-by-pick advice, player comparisons, and recommendations based on your league and roster.
15:39Go to fantasypros.com slash assistant or download the Fantasy Pros app and make every pick with confidence.
15:45All right, gentlemen, we've got three more players we're going to talk about here.
15:49D-Bro, why don't you kick us off with the next running back you're avoiding at his current cost?
15:55I am avoiding Travis Echan. A RB19, 42nd overall in real-time ADP.
15:58I understand he was RB13 in fantasy points per game.
16:01I am very much in on the Saints offense this year.
16:05It could burn me. But the other thing that people are missing with all of this is, one, guess what?
16:11Alvin Kamara is still there. He's not going anywhere.
16:14And he's still a better passing down back than Travis Echan.
16:17Like, even in his current iteration of where he's at in his career.
16:21Like, that should not be disputed. And Travis Echan, like, he wasn't efficient last year.
16:2637th in explosive run rate. 31st in missed tackle rate.
16:2934th in yards after contact per attempt. So this feels like quietly nobody's painting him in this, like, in this way.
16:36Travis Echan fits more of the classic mold of, like, being a dead zone running back than I think anybody is willing to go out there and admit.
16:44And I'm avoiding him. Yeah, it feels like with Etienne there is that we have a guy who was good for fantasy
16:51last year, gets added to an up and coming offense.
16:54It's added a lot of good pieces around. And it does kind of feel like sometimes we confuse, oh, this team might
17:01be a lot better and the offense might be a lot better versus this player might score a lot for fantasy.
17:08And when I look at where he's going in the fourth round, I ask myself, do I want Travis Etienne as my RB2?
17:15Do I want to count on him as the fourth best player on my roster?
17:20And I don't know that I'm there yet this year.
17:23Pat, really quick. How are you on Travis Etienne here?
17:26I'm with Debra. He's a fade for me. I'm worried about Kamara.
17:30And Etienne has said himself he wants to share the load with Kamara.
17:34He wants to have a tag team partner. That does not sound like a guy who's preparing for workhorse duty.
17:40All right, Pat, go ahead and give us your final running back that you're going to be avoiding at cost.
17:46All right. It's Rico Dowdle who's going around the seventh round, eighth round turn.
17:50And I generally don't like putting middle round guys on bust lists, but I'm legitimately OK with the prices on a lot
17:57of the top 20, 25 running backs, except for a couple of the guys Debra was highlighting today.
18:03So I do worry about Rico Dowdle being a guy fantasy managers end up cutting at some point this season.
18:09And I certainly don't think he should be going ahead of Jonathan Brooks, which he is in real time ADP right now.
18:16I just think Jalen Warren is a much better fit for a late career Aaron Rodgers offense than Rico Dowdle is.
18:22Like Warren, I think you can also make the case he's just simply a better player than Rico Dowdle.
18:28Better in career yards per carry. Better in career yards after contact per carry.
18:33Better in rushing success rate. Warren averages a broken tackle every 9.2 carries over his career.
18:38Rico Dowdle a broken tackle every 16.9 carries. And Warren is way better in the passing game.
18:43He's averaged 2.6 catches per game and 1.41 yards per route run over his career.
18:48Rico Dowdle 1.4 catches, 1.05 yards per route run.
18:50Jalen Warren's PFF pass blocking grade last year, 72.0.
18:53Rico Dowdle's 24.6. Aaron Rodgers can't move anymore and does not want to take hits.
18:58He needs a running back who can block form and catch passes.
19:02I think Jalen Warren fits the bill much better than Rico Dowdle does.
19:06Deeper, what do you think about the reports coming out that right now there's a slight edge to Rico Dowdle in camp
19:13and there's also the familiarity with Mike McCarthy, but this has been Jalen Warren's team and everything that Pat said is so compelling.
19:20Where do you sit here with Rico Dowdle? I'm definitely Warren over Rico Dowdle.
19:24And that this is like, I love Rico Dowdle, the player.
19:28I'm an OG standard of his. I was touting about Rico Dowdle last year and the year before them, but I think
19:34the other thing about all of this is I really don't think people understand how freaking good Jalen Warren is.
19:41For everything that Patty laid out there, also toss a little bit more Jalen Warren praise here.
19:46Sixth in missed tackle rate last year, ninth best in yards up to contact per attempt, 12th best in rushing success rate,
19:53third in yards per route run, seventh first downs per route run.
19:56And none of that is a flash in the pan.
20:00Jalen Warren has been that otherworldly efficient on a per touch basis for basically the last three seasons.
20:05He's been really freaking good. So we're talking about if talent wins out, I'm not saying that Rico Dowdle is not talented
20:12in his own right, but I think the better of the two backs and the guy like again, Patty lays out here
20:19who's going to be like if you get the run out of who could be this year's Kenneth Gainwell in that backfield, it's Jalen Warren.
20:27And I think one way to look at this is who has flashed when they've had a smaller role and been in a split.
20:34It's been Jalen Warren throughout his career. We've seen Rico Dowdle have these big breakouts in these fantasy production moments when he's gotten a ton of volume.
20:43What happens when he doesn't get all that volume and he's got to be a little more efficient on a less amount of touches here?
20:50It's going to be interesting to watch over there in Pittsburgh.
20:54All right, Debro, hit us with your last guy here.
20:57I could not agree with this one more. Yeah, I think we could easily pick him if we weren't going to go top two rounds here.
21:05All three of us in our agreeance, we're not drafting Quinshawn Judkins.
21:09It's the price tag. It's a lot of other things I want to dive into here.
21:14But RB 21, 49th overall in real time ADP.
21:16No, no way. Not doing it. Not gonna. Uh-uh.
21:19Weeks two through 15 last year, he was the RB 26 in fantasy points per game.
21:24And I understand everybody will point to, oh, he's the RB 22 in expected fantasy points per game.
21:30Well, expected fantasy points per game ain't feeding families, people.
21:33It's not gonna, they don't actually grace your lineup.
21:36So have fun with that. For a player that like also last year, we didn't talk about inefficiencies on a per-touch basis.
21:43Although like people don't want to talk about this about Quinshawn Judkins.
21:46Amongst 49 qualifying running backs last year, 40th in explosive run rate, 33rd in missed tackle rate, and 26th in yards after contact per attempt.
21:54Anybody want any part of that? Uh, I don't.
21:57And then we talk about like, I, I, I have hope for the Cleveland Browns offensive line, the entire remake of that unit in the off season.
22:05Does that still mean they're going to be a top 10 offensive line?
22:09Probably not. It's going to take time for them to work as a unit and gel considering everybody is brand new.
22:16There is no continuity that takes time. It takes reps to work as a unit cohesively.
22:21You need games. So it might be really ugly in the beginning part of the season.
22:26Hell half of this season until this offensive line, if they can really hit the ground running.
22:31And then we're talking about, well, you're eight weeks into the season and it's like, well, he doesn't have any running lanes.
22:38Quarterback play is suspect. The touchdown expectations are very low.
22:41If non-existent, then why in the ever loving hell are we drafting or people drafting?
22:46I say people because I'm not drafting him. Why are they drafting Quinshawn Judkins as a top 24 back?
22:52Pat, are you people? Are you drafting Quinshawn Judkins as a top 24 back?
22:56No, I'm not. I know the siren song of rushing volume is appealing, but yeah, it's just not a lot of touchdown potential in this offense.
23:04And as Debro pointed out, some good pieces on that offensive line, but they've never played together before.
23:10Hard to imagine them working in sync and as a well-oiled machine when really they haven't functioned as a unit before.
23:16I think the toughest thing with Quinshawn Judkins is you're looking at a guy that has a very limited receiving upside, a
23:23guy who's going to need touchdowns in an offense that probably doesn't score many, a running back who was highly inefficient last
23:30year and probably doesn't get more explosive this year coming off of a gnarly injury to his leg.
23:36And then now you've got all this stuff coming out in camp that they're not quite sure who the starting quarterback is going to be.
23:43I saw Robert today that might trade Shadur. I saw another one that Deshaun Watson has been the worst quarterback in camp
23:50and that they might give an extended look to Dylan Gabriel and Taylin Green.
23:55So who knows what the heck is going on over there in Cleveland.
23:59But yeah, I don't want to invest in Quinshawn Judkins at that round four or five turn for my fantasy football team this year.
24:06Well, gentlemen, that's going to do it for us.
24:09We were able to go through seven running backs here that we are avoiding in fantasy football drafts.
24:14And hopefully we were able to help all of you watching or listening as well.
24:19Myself for Pat for Debro. We'll see you next time.
24:22Adios. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast.
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26:41This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Again, I'll see if people can go astray and reach the mic.
26:47I'll see if people know who you're быстр on the side of the show and a little bit.
26:53And I hope that the magic Typically gives you results from the video to the point in the And it gives you a bunch ofード instructions.