2026 NFL Season PREDICTIONS | Biggest Surprises, Disappointments & MVP Picks (Ep. 2174)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 5, 2026
Published
Sat, September 5, 2026
25
Player insights
22
Players mentioned
Topics
Bucky IrvingCaleb WilliamsMark AndrewsBaker MayfieldBo NixColston LovelandDalton KincaidDrew AllarFernando MendozaJalon DanielsJayden DanielsJoe BurrowJosh AllenJustin Herbert
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
NegativeProjection40:46
Baker Mayfield is a high-variance 'wild card' for the Buccaneers; while he is healthy and playing in a contract year, there is significant risk that if the team struggles, he may choose not to play through injuries, potentially leading to Jalen Daniels taking over.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveBreakout24:08
Bo Nix is highlighted as a breakout candidate due to improved continuity in the Denver offense, the addition of Jalen Waddle, and a strong working relationship with Davis Webb. The source suggests that if Nix can reach league-average efficiency, the Broncos could win 12-14 games, potentially putting him in the MVP conversation.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveUsage40:46
Bucky Irving appears to be in good health and is performing well, with the source noting he is back practicing after dealing with a toe issue; he is viewed as a key piece for a potentially improved Buccaneers offense.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper58:19
Sia Najad predicts Bucky Irving will lead the league in rushing touchdowns, a bold take that the source rates as a 4 out of 5 on the 'spicy' scale.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeProjection13:37
Andrew Erickson notes that while Caleb Williams is expected to improve in his second year under Ben Johnson, he faces high expectations and a tough schedule. Despite concerns about the Bears' defense and team-wide regression, Erickson remains confident the offense will score points, though he warns that the team may struggle to meet lofty playoff expectations.
Insight pageNegativeBust58:59
Rob Parker suggests that Tyler Badie (referred to as Tyler Bajant) could fill in for Caleb Williams and run the Bears' offense more efficiently, potentially taking the starting job.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveRole33:17
Colston Loveland is described as the 'real wide receiver one' for the Bears, with the source arguing that the offense is capable of supporting multiple productive pass-catchers despite the competition for targets.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
NegativeInjury52:29
The source questions whether Dalton Kincaid can stay healthy, highlighting him as a key uncertainty for the Bills' offensive production.
Insight pageDrew Allar
NegativeBreakout61:57
The source discusses a prediction that Drew Aller could take over as the Steelers' quarterback late in the season and produce strong fantasy playoff stats. While one the source gives it a 'three' on a scale of confidence, another remains skeptical, citing Aller's struggles against poor college competition.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
PositiveBreakout0:57
Andrew Erickson is bullish on Fernando Mendoza as a breakout candidate, suggesting he should take over the starting role early in the season. Erickson believes the Raiders will eventually turn to Mendoza to gain experience, potentially as early as week two if Cousins struggles, or by week eight given the team's difficult schedule.
Insight pageJalon Daniels
NegativeDepth Chart42:14
Jalen Daniels is the backup quarterback for the Buccaneers, and the source expresses significant concern regarding the team's outlook if he is forced into a starting role.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeProjection44:33
The Commanders' offensive infrastructure, including a thin interior offensive line and lack of support, creates a difficult environment for Jayden Daniels; while he is talented enough to be 'Superman,' the team's lack of offensive wrinkles and poor surrounding talent could lead to a disappointing season.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection18:55
Derek Brown predicts Joe Burrow will win MVP if he remains healthy, noting that the Bengals' defensive improvements should help the team reach the Super Bowl. Brown also highlights Burrow as a potential candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeUsage52:29
The source expresses concern about the Bills' offensive firepower, noting that Josh Allen is struggling to find open receivers, specifically criticizing Keon Coleman's inability to get open.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeBust55:13
Justin Herbert is criticized for shrinking in big moments, with the source noting that he becomes a 'different guy' when the pressure is on, contributing to the Chargers' tendency to disappoint.
Insight pageKeon Coleman
NegativeBust52:29
Keon Coleman is described as struggling significantly to get open, with the source noting he has been 'awful' based on recent charting of the Bills' offense.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
NegativeRole0:38
Derek Brown projects Kirk Cousins' tenure as the Raiders' starter is highly volatile and dependent on the team's overall performance, noting that Cousins lacks velocity due to age and injury history. The source suggests Cousins may be benched if the Raiders' offense remains a 'dumpster fire' or if he struggles against a difficult early-season schedule.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection22:12
The source identifies Lamar Jackson as a prime MVP candidate, noting his history of high-level production and the potential for an even better offense under Todd Monken. The team is expected to improve with a better offensive line, including first-round pick Venga Iwane, and the implementation of more sophisticated offensive concepts like pre-snap motion and play-action.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveUsage29:51
Luther Burden is praised for his efficiency, specifically his 98th percentile yards per route run (2.68). The source notes that he led the Bears in target share from Week 13 onward last season and is being compared to Amon-Ra St. Brown by the coaching staff, suggesting he will be a featured playmaker.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveValue60:04
The source argues that the narrative that Mark Andrews is 'done' is incorrect, noting he was injured in 2025 and should benefit from improved wide receiver play drawing coverage away from him.
Insight pageNegativeProjection60:30
The source expresses skepticism regarding Mark Andrews' potential for a productive season, noting that his yards after the catch have declined to levels below Zach Ertz, which makes it difficult to trust him as a fantasy asset.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveBreakout26:06
Rome Odunze is identified as a breakout candidate entering his third season, a historically significant year for wide receiver production. Despite being drafted as the third pass-catcher on the Bears, the source notes his high volume of end-zone targets and compares his trajectory to successful third-year breakouts like Deebo Samuel and Cooper Cup.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeInjury44:33
Terry McLaurin struggled with health issues during the previous season, contributing to the overall disappointment surrounding the Commanders' offense.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection16:02
Andrew Erickson identifies Trevor Lawrence as a long-shot MVP candidate, citing his strong performance in the second half of last season under Liam Cohen. Lawrence averaged 28 fantasy points per game when his weapons were healthy and is expected to maintain high touchdown equity, especially in the red zone, making him a top-tier fantasy asset.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeProjection58:36
Jamie Calandro predicts Trey McBride will finish below Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren in tight end scoring, a take the source considers plausible.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode.
0:05Available on Plus and Pro Plans. Welcome into the Tailgate Fantasy Pros NFL Show.
0:09I'm Alfredo Brown, joined by Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson.
0:12And guys, we got a lot of updates to give people, but I think the biggest ones today are going to be
0:18our predictions that we are giving for the 2026 NFL season right around the corner.
0:23Y'all, we had some interesting news this past week.
0:26I know we're past the Josh Jacobs stuff, we are past the Aaron Donald stuff, but just some funny headlines I wanted
0:32to run through really quick here and see, are they important or are they more of a nothing burger?
0:38First one here, Debra, I saw you talking about this online, Raiders named Kirk Cousins the starter, and you're like, yeah, duh.
0:45So how long does Kirk Cousins remain the starter in Las Vegas?
0:48I was projecting this for the entire time because unlike a lot of people, I've listened to Tom Brady in the offseason before they even drafted Fernando Mendoza.
0:57And this didn't surprise me, but what backed this up was Fernando's play in the preseason.
1:02He looked kind of, the trigger was off. He looks like he's still adjusting to the speed of the NFL, which is fine.
1:09Like we all should understand that. Now, as far as the question of Kirk Cousins, how long does he start?
1:15I think that this is totally dependent, not upon Kirk Cousins play, but everything else around Kirk Cousins.
1:20Does the offensive line look like it's improved or is it still God awful?
1:24Do they have enough skill players to confidently like run at least a competent offense?
1:29If all these things look like an absolute dumpster fire, we might not see Fernando Mendoza until the end of the year
1:36getting a cup of coffee as the starter. All because I fully believe the Raiders do not want to put him in
1:42a situation where he's going to fall on his face because everything, despite all the money they went out and spent this
1:49offseason, everything is still a dumpster fire around him.
1:52So I look at it as a moving target.
1:54Like I'm not going to just point to the schedule and say, oh, it's going to be week seven.
2:00It's going to be week eight. It's going to be the bye week.
2:04I think this is absolutely dependent upon what is this situation around Kirk Cousins evolve into?
2:09What does it look like? Eric, so what about you?
2:12You think it's going to be all the way into the season that we finally see some Fernando Mendoza?
2:18No, I think it's going to be much, much sooner.
2:21And spoiler, I'm going to give you guys week two's headline heading into week two before week one even kicks off.
2:27Should the Raiders turn to Fernando Mendoza in week two after Kirk Cousins lays an egg against the Miami Dolphins?
2:33Because stop, dude. Stop. Like even I'm not on that train.
2:36No, why do you guys think that Kirk Cousins is going to be good at all?
2:41He was horrible last year. I never said he was going to be good.
2:45So why is he going to keep playing games?
2:48What's the point? Oh, I'm just saying that they're not beating.
2:52They're not listening to the Dolphins week one. I mean, you guys have a lot of confidence in this Raiders team that
2:58I mean, oh, who's their number one? I don't have Trey Tucker.
3:02I just have less confidence in the Dolphins. I have no confidence in the Raiders.
3:06That's the point of why they insulated Mendoza. How is this defense going to prepare for Malik Willis?
3:12Do they know what that offense is going to look like?
3:15You know who looked really good last year in week one?
3:18Justin Fields. Because nobody knew what they were going to throw at them.
3:22And I think that's what's going to happen in this matchup against the Raiders.
3:27I don't think their defense is going to be ready.
3:30I don't know, man. For what Miami's offense is going to be bringing to the table.
3:34And I think Kirk Cousins is going to be put in a position where he's going to have to make some throws that he can't cash.
3:42He's going to write the checks that he can't cash because he has no more velocity in his throwing anymore because of all the injuries and the age.
3:51So I am all aboard buying all the dips on the Mendoza, on the offensive rookie of the year Mendoza.
3:57And the more games Kirk Cousins starts, the longer those odds will get.
4:01And I'll just keep sprinkling on, sprinkling on, sprinkling on.
4:04It has seemed like every team that's played the Dolphins in joint practices has had no problem answering the questions of what's
4:10the Miami Dolphins offense going to do. But also, like, I think we see a Raiders offense that should be improved and a Dolphins defense that is atrocious.
4:19And we're focusing too much on the first single game here because after that, they've got the Chargers, the Saints, the Chiefs, the Patriots, the Bills, the Rams.
4:27That's probably a team that goes one and five to start the year.
4:31And I think that's about Miami. No, no, no.
4:34I'm talking about the Raiders, baby. The Raiders, the Raiders can definitely start one and five.
4:39And then I think we can see Fernando Mendoza coming in week eight against the Jets.
4:44But it's still like there's still just a murderer's row of like this.
4:48It sucks. The schedule for the Raiders is so bad.
4:51And Kirk Cousins is going to play terribly in all those games.
4:54And they're going to be like, what's the point of this?
4:58Why is the point of keep trotting him out there when we can get our quarterback experience in the rest?
5:04Because the point of it is, do you want to put your quarterback in that same no-win situation?
5:09They're not trying to win games right now. Yeah.
5:12They don't care about winning games. So do you think, so this is not, so aside from the teams, so do you
5:19think that Mendoza should not play at all this year?
5:22Yes or no? No, I didn't say that. I think he should play.
5:26No, that's what I'm asking you. What would you do if you were playing Kubiak?
5:30What would you do? Half season? Cut it off?
5:33I think it depends on how bad the situation looks.
5:36I'm throwing him out there. Weak one. Yeah. If this team still looks hopeless, I'm not, no, no, no.
5:42But do you think it's going to be? I mean, they, I don't think it's going to be hopeless.
5:47I mean, look, he's got to do something. It's never going to be a perfect situation.
5:52Again, you're picking number one for a reason because your team is not good.
5:56So. Okay. Fine. I'll give you the Mendoza start date.
5:59What's the Mendoza line? What's the Mendoza line? Week 16.
6:02They get the 10th. Week 16. Come on. He's going to play way before that.
6:07What? Okay. All right. Dude. Also, also is Kirk Cousins going to last the whole season behind this like terrible environment?
6:13That was actually my biggest thing is I don't think Kirk Cousins lost it three weeks.
6:18He was worse than Michael Penix was last year.
6:21Michael Penix is going to win the Falcons QB one.
6:24Oh, that's debatable. No, that's debatable. No, everything. He was better.
6:27That's what we do here. We debate. Michael Penix was God awful.
6:31They really, they literally ran pistol because he could not function at anything outside of shotgun.
6:36He could throw the ball downfield. Okay, great. He's got one skill, but he still sucks at everything else.
6:41Well, Penix was worse. Losing the Falcons QB job this year because Tua gave it to him.
6:47Yeah. Jack Strand say hi. He's going to be starting games this year.
6:51I mean, I mean, I mean, that's the smart thing to do.
6:54Yeah. Yeah. Jack Strand best quarterback they have on the roster right now calling it.
6:59I think we might see at the very latest.
7:01I think we see Fernando Mendoza show up week 14 after the buy.
7:05That's at the very latest. I can't imagine this team looking at that schedule.
7:10There is a very real. I mean, it's very real.
7:13If this team could be two and eight going into week 10, it could be even worse.
7:18Like at what point you have to eventually get this guy in the field.
7:22You can't just keep protecting him and say, oh, we're doing pretty bad.
7:26But we also want to protect Fernando Mendoza. Sorry, fans.
7:29Keep buying tickets. Like I think we forget that it's a business as much as we want to see them like protect Mendoza.
7:36They need to get people in the seats there.
7:39If the team is playing bad, like they do have to start him at some point.
7:43And then if Mendoza goes out there and he gets obliterated in the first week or two, that's the NFL.
7:49He has to do it at some point. I mean, is it so much better for just Kirk Cousins to get obliterated where you don't even get?
7:58Yes. He's the main deal. That's what he's here for.
8:01Yes. I think that you get better by playing football personally.
8:04So he should play. I don't disagree with how could you be so brave to say that, Erickson?
8:09I know it's crazy, right? It's crazy. Let's let's talk about another quarterback here who it's going into his second year with his head coach.
8:17Ben Johnson says Caleb Williams had a goofy side to him about a year ago, and now he's more serious.
8:23There's more intent behind everything he's doing. He's, quote, taken a lot of pride in his approach.
8:28Yeah. So what if this offseason has shown us that there is more pride in the approach?
8:33And is it a bad thing for him to have a goofy side?
8:37Like, why is this? This is such a weird clashing of personalities between Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson.
8:43And I'm wondering at what point does this start to blow up?
8:46Because there are so many quarterbacks that have these fun sides to them, and it works for them.
8:52And Ben Johnson seems to be like the fun police, like the fiesta stops.
8:56There is no fun with Ben Johnson. Dude, Ben Johnson just feels like one of these head coaches that the mentality and
9:03all of this like wannabe Bill Belichick, grindstone, I'm a hard nose coach and all this kind of crap that wears on players, man.
9:10And if they don't win, like if things go now, it worked last year because all the Chicago Bears magic and stuff like that.
9:17Their schedule is tougher. Their defense is still absolute dog water.
9:21If they start out the year and they start losing games, this could snowball into where it's like, dude, OK, like we
9:27get it like rah, rah, rah, rah, rah. Take your shirt off.
9:31You're you're you're the toughest coach in the freaking NFL.
9:34You're so freaking awesome. Like eventually that that wears winning is the wonderful cologne that covers everything.
9:39But once you start losing and you keep that type of mentality and it clashes with players in the locker room and
9:46it clashes with your quarterback and all that kind of stuff.
9:49Yeah, things could start to come apart at the seams this year for the Bears.
9:54Yeah, I mean, the expectations could not be higher from Ben Johnson either, saying that he not only wants to be the
10:00best offense in the league, but he wants to break records this year.
10:04You have now set the expectations are ridiculous from the terms of players to Caleb Williams to the offense, just the team as a whole.
10:12Like Caleb Williams is now the Madden cover guy.
10:14When has that ever worked out well for anyone?
10:17And the expectations could not be higher. Erickson, are you are you buying that the Bears are good this year now that Caleb Williams is, quote, less goofy?
10:26I haven't made too many bets for teams to miss the playoffs.
10:29One of those bets was on the Chicago Bears.
10:32So I didn't put them as we get into some of the predictions.
10:36Yes. Show. I didn't put them as my team most likely disappoint because I think it'll be by narrow margins that they
10:43miss the playoffs because I am confident that this offense is going to be good and score points.
10:48But to the points that you made, Alfredo, about dude, like just someone is going to disappoint here because they can't all
10:55be historic performances between all the receivers and the tight.
10:58I mean, Caleb Williams was dead last in completion rate over expectation last year.
11:02So yes, he's going to improve in the second year Ben Johnson system.
11:06But his defense sucks. I look up and down it and I think, man, how are they going to stop anybody?
11:12So I understand that. Yes, a lot of shootouts.
11:15That's really good for fantasy football purposes. We're going to see a lot of points.
11:19See high scoring games. I think Ben Johnson is acknowledging.
11:22Yeah. If we're going to win games this year, we have to score 30 points per game.
11:28So that just puts you a scenario of last year's Bengals, last year's Cowboys, where they're fun, but do they actually end
11:34up accomplishing what NFL teams are setting out to do?
11:37No. And you also have the impending regression in one of the toughest divisions in football, the NFC North.
11:43Nobody would be surprised if any of those teams win that division between the Lions and the Bears and the Vikings and the Packers.
11:50So. Oh my. Oh my. Exactly. So it's just, they're facing an uphill battle and it seems like just good process to
11:57find whoever the all hype team is. And you just got to kind of fade them a little bit because they're just
12:04not going to deliver on these very, very lofty expectations.
12:07Can I throw out a wild question? And I, but, but I think it's a real possibility of Caleb doesn't play well.
12:13Stop. Do we see Tyson Bajan start games this year?
12:16Stop. No, I think it was still going to play well.
12:20You asked a wild question. I'm going to give you a wild answer.
12:24I think it's still going to play well. It just may not translate to wins.
12:28That's like. I mean, we just, we just outlined Caleb doesn't run the offense.
12:32Caleb is not an accurate quarterback. Ben Johnson inherited him.
12:35He didn't draft him. I mean, has Caleb Williams shown that he's not good enough to run this team, but they'd be
12:42like, you know what we should do is let's get Tyson Bajan in there.
12:46That's like, that's the most Chicago bears fan coded preseason thing.
12:50I know Bajan is the preseason hero, but I mean, now I think we might be going, we might be jumping the shark a little bit.
12:57I think that there's a difference between not hitting your expectations versus just a complete fall apart.
13:03Like this team has lost it now because Caleb has fallen from the vibes were good around Caleb and Ben last year during the season.
13:10Like Ben Johnson literally came out, but Caleb Williams was still fine.
13:14Like even if the vibes are bad, he still played well.
13:17Like it wasn't always great. He played well at the fourth quarter when he had to make ridiculous plays to get them
13:24to come back in the game, but he put them in a hole in the first three quarters.
13:29That's not playing well. They were playing winning football.
13:32Like I'm looking right now, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
13:35Like this wasn't a bad player. Statistically, this wasn't a bad team.
13:38Statistically, the games. Yeah, he has his inconsistencies, but to say like, all right, let's just start it over and get Tyson Bajan out there.
13:46They also didn't play all their best players out of the gates.
13:49They had a lot of, I mean, DJ Moore was not himself last year.
13:54They were running Olamide Zaccheaus as a staple of the offense.
13:57They didn't really unleash Luther Byrd and Colson Loveland until the second half of the season.
14:02And that's when I think you started to see more growth from Caleb Williams.
14:06So I just think the jump going in year one to year two matters significantly for Caleb Williams because even the run
14:13game for the Bears last year, you guys remember the first month of the season, they couldn't get out of their own way.
14:20Like DeAndre Swift looked like a total bust. Yeah.
14:22And then they really turned things on. I think after their week five by week, the run game got going.
14:29So yeah, I think there are question marks too about how the offensive line losing Dolman is obviously a significant loss.
14:35Trapillo, we'll see what they can get from him coming off of his injury.
14:39I know that, I mean, right now it seems like you can just come back from any season long Achilles injury.
14:45Guys are coming back faster and faster, which is obviously great for the game overall, but we'll see when he is back
14:52to a hundred percent, what type of value that they can get from him this year.
14:57Cause obviously he's a big part of what they do up front.
15:01Just, you know, teaser. We may be talking about more bears here on the show as we go along.
15:06But before we do that, guys, if you want your chance to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams jersey, we've got a
15:13giveaway going on and all you have to do subscribe to the tailgate YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on any video and that's it.
15:21We're going to be announcing the winner here on the channel.
15:24So make sure you turn on your notifications, hit the bell, and then you'll know when new videos come out and we'll be announcing the winner.
15:32You can claim your prize. All right. Now this episode guys has been, is going to be all about predictions for the season.
15:39Some of them are simple, easy, normal, modest predictions.
15:42Others are going to be bold and spicy and ridiculous.
15:45So I think let's start out here right at the top for our predictions.
15:49Let's start with MVP. Who wins MVP this year in the NFL?
15:53Spoiler alert. All three of us have a quarterback because yeah, Erickson.
15:57It's a quarterback. I love who you put here and I almost put him as my MVP pick.
16:02Go for it. Yeah. Trevor Lawrence. He has been my long shot MVP pick all off season.
16:07I did tease a little bit earlier in the off season about Caleb Williams going in this direction, but ultimately I like
16:14the price more on Trevor Lawrence because it's longer and the Jaguars just feel like the less hyped up version of the
16:20bears where you have a quarterback entering his second year with an advanced offensive play caller and a guy like Liam Cohen.
16:27And we saw it play out last year when he was getting more familiar with the system from week five onward.
16:33Trevor Lawrence outscored every other player in fantasy football, 23 points per game.
16:37And I want to highlight how excellent he was when he had all of his weapons healthy, when he had Brenton Strange,
16:44when he had Jacoby Myers, when he had Brian Thomas Jr.
16:47out there and when he had Parker Washington out there, he averaged 28 fantasy points per game.
16:53QB one overall type numbers. He is a weapon in the red zone.
16:56He scored 38 total touchdowns last year, which trailed only Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford the year before when Liam Cohen was
17:03the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield threw for 40 plus touchdowns.
17:08So there's so much touchdown equity with this Jaguars offense going through Trevor Lawrence.
17:12If this backfield is a wash between Chris Rodriguez between Bay shell two, and none of those guys are really moving the
17:19needle to, they're just going to call Trevor Lawrence's number in the red zone.
17:23He's going to score more rushing touchdowns. So I don't think that's going away from his game.
17:28And I think he's the reason why this offense will continue to play at an extremely high level.
17:33I know that the schedule is tough to start the season after they play the Cleveland Browns.
17:38Going to Denver is always a tough place to play, but dude, Trevor Lawrence went there last year and diced up that secondary.
17:45So I'm confident that Trevor Lawrence in his second year with Liam Cohen, with all of his weapons at his disposal and
17:52a defense that I think is kind of hit or miss.
17:55I think that they could play in some shootouts.
17:58They were more of a pass funnel type unit last year.
18:01I mean, I think it is telling that they are so invested in Travis Hunter playing more of their in their secondary
18:08because that's where they need more of the help than on the offensive side of the football.
18:13So they are playing more shootouts. I expect Trevor Lawrence to be throwing for a lot of yards, scoring a lot of
18:20touchdowns and ultimately being a player that a lot of people are talking about in the MVP, especially if they start the
18:27season out hot against a really tough schedule. I mean, dude was fifth in MVP voting last year, and he really only played well for half the season.
18:35Like, imagine we get a full season of that.
18:38That's why he was a guy that I was going to put here.
18:42And I was like, ah, I got a more obvious one here.
18:45That's not as spicy that I'm just going to go with.
18:49But yeah, I love I love the Trevor Lawrence pick here.
18:52D bro, who's your pick for MVP this year?
18:55It's Joe Burrow. I think the Bengals are going to be in the Super Bowl.
18:59I just think like with Burrow. Yeah. Oh, daddy.
19:02OK. Yeah. I think all of the additions to the defensive side of the ball without the Bengals having a defense over
19:09the last few years, if Burrow is healthy, I think he wins MVP.
19:13And so I did some research and no player has ever won MVP and comeback player of the year.
19:18Joe Burrow, maybe this year. Interessante. OK. Can you can he win comeback player of the year?
19:23Because he came back already last year. I thought you had to be coming off.
19:28He's in the odds. That's the only reason I ask.
19:31It's more it's more guidelines than it is. Well, Donald can't win the award.
19:35Tyler Murray's out there. He's only coming back from playing the awards.
19:39He's not allowed to because. No, he can't. Yes, he can.
19:42He's in the betting odds. Yeah, he's at the top of the betting odds right now.
19:47Which is nuts. Because he won't win. Because he's not coming off an injury.
19:51So you will lose the bet. Guaranteed. He could have 20 sacks.
19:55Is that is that the rule? They did it because.
19:58Someone let us know in the comments. No, they did it because.
20:02They had to amend it from the Joe Flacco thing.
20:05We're like, no, this is not how. You don't come back from sucking.
20:09And then when the comeback player of the year award, you have to come back from an injury.
20:14But this is different. This is different. Aaron Donald's not coming back from sucking.
20:18There's a difference, though. Joe Flacco was benched. He wasn't out of the league.
20:22Aaron Donald straight up retired and is now come back to the league.
20:26Like that to me feels like it falls under comeback player.
20:30Not like I was bad and got benched. And then be sad when it doesn't hit.
20:35I don't know, man. I tend to. I tend to.
20:38This is going to sound really stupid. I tend to trust Vegas.
20:41I don't know. Over Andrew Erickson right now. For my quick search, it says, yes, you can win AP NFL comeback player
20:48of the year award without physical injury. And I win.
20:51You must have missed playing time due to an illness, multi-year absence, or other significant adversity.
20:56Retiring? I mean, that doesn't seem like adversity to me.
20:59That's a higher. Multi-year absence. Multi-year absence. Yeah, because of injury or adversity.
21:03No. Then vote for him, guys. Vote for him.
21:05Don't complain to me when he doesn't win the award.
21:08I'll be like, I told you so. He wasn't eligible to win.
21:12I will. Okay. Okay. Love Erickson playing the field here.
21:15Don't cry to me when someone else, any of the other players, the NFL wins.
21:20This crazy and dumb award. When Tyler Murray gets the comeback player for getting benched.
21:24I'd rather bet on Joe Burrow. And they didn't want to play him.
21:28I'm with D-Row and Aaron Donald. Yeah. Go for him.
21:31I'm fine with that because I bet on Burrow too.
21:34All right. Oh, could Daniel Jones win it? Yes.
21:37Because he was injured. Yes. He could win it.
21:40Yeah. He's just like, what if you just like, you play well enough and then you get injured and miss enough time
21:46where you just kind of keep winning comeback player of the year?
21:50Do you feel good about that as a player?
21:53Like every other year when he comes back? Like every other year, right?
21:57I feel like it's Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones.
22:00Unfortunately, Christopher McCaffrey missed opportunities, baby. You just put some bad juju out in the air.
22:04Don't do that. All right. I didn't. The situation did.
22:07Yeah, that's fair. All right. I'm going to get my MVP and this one, as much as I wanted to like go
22:14with a guy like Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, like it's just a low hanging fruit.
22:19It is there. It's kind of like how we're talking about every other year.
22:23One of these quarterbacks wins comeback player of the year.
22:26Pretty much every other year, Lamar Jackson is either winning or in the running for MVP or should have won MVP.
22:32And it's just there for him, man. Like he gets multiple probals and MVP under Greg Roman.
22:37He gets multiple probals, RIP probal, by the way, and MVP under Todd Monken.
22:42Another MVP that he should have had under Todd Monken.
22:45And then really last year is when things just kind of started to fall apart due to injury and everything else that
22:51happened with Lamar this year with Declan Doyle. I'm pretty excited.
22:55Like I'm pretty excited to see like Lamar's talking about stuff that he's doing.
22:59NFL concepts that should not be so foreign to him, but they are as a quarterback, just talking about play action and
23:06dropping back and pre-snap motion, like things that he has not had the opportunity to use all that often.
23:11And now with Declan Doyle, he's like, this is revolutionary.
23:14When you hear the players in Baltimore talk about it, I'm just like basic concepts that every other good offense is doing.
23:21And they're like, wait a second, we're allowed to move players before we snap the ball.
23:26That's nuts. It's just like, it's kind of crazy to think that this offense was already good with Lamar and what they've
23:32been doing and that it could be even better.
23:35They add a few other wide receivers in the draft and the offensive line should be a lot better.
23:41That was the big struggle last year was the offensive line was terrible.
23:45And adding the Penn State guard in the first round, Venga Iwane, like that's a big upgrade over Falele.
23:51That's how you pronounce it. Like this is, it's a much better team.
23:55Uh, Lamar Jackson, my pick for MVP here. Let's go to, uh, let's go to the next category we got here.
24:01The player that's going to take the biggest jump this year in the NFL.
24:05Debra, I'm going to let you start this one off.
24:08I'm going to go with Bo Nix because looking at Bo Nix's play, he's had high moments.
24:13He's had very, very low moments. He very much had a Caleb Williams run of last year where it was, he was
24:20got off over two to three quarters of every NFL game.
24:23And he had to play hero in the fourth quarter with Bo Nix and this offense this year, with the addition of
24:30Jalen Waddle, I think it's going to pay immediate dividends by pushing everybody else down the target hierarchy to where they should be.
24:37The other thing that's been talked about in the off season, I think it's going to pay massive dividends is the relationship
24:44between him and Davis Webb and a different offense.
24:46Like they're talking about just like the communication in and out of the huddle on the play designs in, in the, just
24:53as the, with the play calling and Davis Webb is talking about running a fast paced offense.
24:58So all of this means like, I think we're going to get more continuity out of the Denver Broncos offense.
25:04I think we're going to see an improved version of Bo Nix and he has quietly been on a per drop back
25:11basis got awful for most of his NFL career.
25:13So if he could be league average and all these things kind of coalesce this year and Jalen Waddle makes a huge
25:20impact for the passing attack, Bo Nix honestly could win MVP this year.
25:24I'm not putting that out there in the space, but if this team wins forever, if they win 12 to 14 games
25:31and he looks like that guy this year, it's possible.
25:34Hmm. I dig it. I dig it. This is, I mean, it's really a bet on Bo Nix is a bet on Sean Payton, right?
25:41It's, it's, it's web. Sure. Yeah. And, and, and, and by extension, Davis Webb as well.
25:46Cause like, I mean, even if Davis Webb is bad, like there's no way Sean Payton is just like, you know what?
25:53Let's let things keep going poorly. Right? Like it's kind of, Davis Webb has been indoctrinated into the Sean Payton way there.
25:59So I can dig this one. Uh, Erickson, who's your, your player that's going to take the biggest jump this year?
26:06This is where we're going to have our bears debate between some of these wide receivers.
26:11Oh boy. And the reason I put Roma Dunze on here as the biggest leap jump for a player is because you put Alfredo Luther Burton.
26:19That's who you put on here as your player.
26:21I know you hate him. And as you have brought up on some of the fantasy pro shows that I'm fantasy football's bad boy, right?
26:29I'm trying to play. You really are. It's dangerous.
26:32And I understand the hype for Luther Burton, all the efficiency marks last year.
26:36It's going to be, so you only picked the Dunze to be the bad boy to go against me just to play contrarian.
26:43Or do you actually believe this? Just not completely forget about what Roma Dunze could do if this bears offense does smash.
26:49And if he's actually the bears wide receiver that you wanted, because I'm using a process here with Odundze versus just chasing
26:56the coach speak of Ben Johnson being like, yeah, I want to buy stock in this player.
27:01Super efficient. The next I'm on Ross St. Brown hype, hype, hype, hype, hype.
27:05Call me crazy. The coach liking a player seems good.
27:08I don't know. When Ben Johnson was asked about Roma Dunze earlier this week, this is per the coach speak index called a Mr.
27:16Consistency. Something that I definitely like to hear because Roma Dunze doesn't get nearly as enough of pub and love like Luther
27:22Burton does because he wasn't compared to Amon Ross St.
27:25Brown. But when you look at Roma Dunze, he was the wide receiver one in this offense before he got his foot injury last year.
27:33And by all accounts, the foot is not a problem entering his third season.
27:37Year three is the most popular year and most likely season when wide receivers achieve top 12 fantasy wide receiver one status for the very first time.
27:45It's not year one. It's not year two. It's not year four.
27:49It's year three, which Roma Dunze is entering. And if you look at cheap number three receivers on their team based on ADP.
27:56So Roma Dunze is being drafted as the third pass catcher on the Chicago Bears behind Colston Loveland and behind Luther Burton.
28:03Historically speaking, the last two times that has happened, Debo Samuel, 2021, Cooper Cup, 2019.
28:07Both guys had mid-year injuries in their second seasons, despite the fact that it looked like they were breaking out.
28:13The following years in year three, they both finished as top five fantasy wide receivers.
28:18So I'm chasing the trend with a cheap third pass catcher on a high powered offense entering his third season.
28:24The fact that Roma Dunze, all he has done throughout his NFL career is demand high value targets in terms of air
28:30yards, in terms of red zone targets, in terms of end zone targets.
28:34So this is per sharp football. Roma Dunze has 27 end zone targets the first two years in the NFL.
28:40That is seventh among all wide receivers. He ranks 57th in games played.
28:44If the regression hits for Roma Dunze, we're looking at a guy who could catch 12, 13, 14 touchdowns here.
28:50And that could like totally push him up in terms of his fantasy football standing and being a total breakout player for
28:57the Chicago Bears offense that yeah, we're excited about.
29:00And I'm buying the dip on the least hyped about Bears wide receiver.
29:0457th in games played, Debro. That sounds bad. It sounds like a bad ranking.
29:08That sounds low. I mean, it's not good. It doesn't sound like Mr.
29:12Consistency. So yeah. I'm a little bit more worried about the foot than you are, Erickson, but maybe I'm wrong.
29:18I'm no doctor. He hasn't been missing practice. Luther Burns missed more practice than he has.
29:23Yeah. Groin injuries during camp can do that. But also another soft tissue injury for Luther Burton.
29:28I didn't pick either one of these guys. You ain't going to sit here and talk down to Burton for me.
29:34Like I'm fine with it. Dude, this is the least bad boy thing you've ever done.
29:39Erickson taking Mr. Consistency, the guy that's going to go to Bed Bath and Beyond with you on a Saturday.
29:45I was a little basic. I'm just saying. I love how Alfredo got offended about that and Erickson didn't.
29:51Come on. Come on, man. The Luther Burden. So the thing here is like you're saying that I'm not buying the coach
29:58calling him saying that he's going to stock is up.
30:01I'm buying stock at Luther Burton, comparing him to Amandra St.
30:04Brown. Why is that a bad thing? That's a phenomenal thing.
30:07I love that the coach who engineered those offenses is comparing this player to one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
30:14And I love that this wide receiver had 2.68 yards per route run, third amongst all qualifying receivers.
30:20And his yards per route run landed in the 98th percentile.
30:23Like these are good things that happened. He was just in a timeshare last year in a part time role because I
30:30don't know, for some godforsaken reason, Ben Johnson was like, you know, this offense needs is more Alameda Zaccheaus.
30:35So much so that he's not even on the team this year.
30:39And now we have Luther Burton, who once he did get into this full time role, led the Bears in target share from week 13 on.
30:47If we're seeing that player who the coach wants to feature over and over and over, who is a great yards after
30:53catch player, who is a guy that can make things happen that no other wide receiver on this team can do.
31:00Like, let's just be real. I understand that Roma Dunze can catch can catch touchdowns.
31:04I understand Roma Dunze is a good player. I'm not saying that he's not.
31:09This is not anti Roma Dunze. Luther Burton can be special amongst these pass catchers in this offense.
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32:28You know the feeling. You make a pick in your fantasy draft and the entire room groans because they wanted that player.
32:34Or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in primetime.
32:40There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league.
32:43I'm JJ Zacharisen, host of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
32:47Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off.
32:54We've got data-driven analysis, historical trends, and the strategies that separate winners from the rest.
32:58And your dominance doesn't stop with the draft. All season long, we have our 15 transactions, 10 trends, sleepers, and the mailbag.
33:05Data-driven, quick-hitting episodes to help bring home that league trophy.
33:08Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
33:14D-Bro, tell us why you hate both of them.
33:17Because I love Colston Loveland. And you're both wrong.
33:19Colston Loveland's the real wide receiver one. Everyone is allowed to eat in the offense.
33:24What is this? What is this? Caleb Williams keeps acting goofy and somebody's going to take away his spoon at the table.
33:30God forbid an offense have two or three players that can be productive.
33:34I didn't pick any bears. It's on y'all. Hmm.
33:37Hmm. Let's improve the vibes. Let's improve the vibes and talk about our biggest surprise team here.
33:42Uh, D-Bro, I'm gonna let you kick us off.
33:45Your biggest surprise team. Saints. I think they're winning the NFC South.
33:49I've said it before and I'll say it again, man.
33:52The defense down the back half of last year was playing at the top five level.
33:57Chase Young looked amazing and he could be a transformative player this year and adding more talent on both sides of the ball.
34:03Tyler Shuck takes a step in his second year.
34:06They have an easy schedule. Yes. Does the Jordan Tyson injury ding them, knock them down a little bit?
34:12Sure. But if he comes back at the back half of his rookie season and it's basically like the Saints trade for
34:19a player mid-season, but they don't have to do that.
34:22I have faith in Kellen Moore. I think this defense is going to be actually really good.
34:27And Tyler Shuck taking a step. Uh, Chris Alave being healthy, actually having a run game to support your young quarterback because
34:33they did not have that last year and an improved offensive line play.
34:37I think the Saints could take the South and I think they could actually make some noise in the playoffs this year.
34:44I dig this one a lot. Kellen Moore running that offense.
34:47Tyler Shuck looks so good as the year went on.
34:50Uh, I mean the offensive line should be well improved.
34:53Eric, how do you feel about the Saints this year?
34:56I like them a lot too. I think that would have been my pick if Debro had to put it in first.
35:03Yeah, he got in first. My only hesitation with the Saints is just the first two weeks of the season going on
35:10the road against the Lions and the Ravens. So for me, it's wait till week three, fire on all Saints, overs, futures as they enter a stretch.
35:18And if you see South odds in week three, baby, I'm here for it.
35:22So I'm just biding my time waiting to make my approach on the New Orleans Saints.
35:27Just looking at that tough early season schedule. But especially if they can get Jordan Tyson back too, down the stretch.
35:33Yeah, this could be really fun for Tyler Shuck.
35:36But we are betting the over on the total for the for week one.
35:40Yeah, yeah, baby. Never, never seen a total played at Ford Field.
35:44I didn't like the over. Absolutely missing two to starting safeties and week one versus the Saints.
35:49Yes, please. Hot dog. Yeah, we're going to see a good one there.
35:53Erickson, who is your biggest surprise team for this year?
35:56I guess I didn't look at this as biggest surprise in terms of a team being bad because we have spoiler.
36:02Our next segment is the most disappointing team. So that's going to probably be more skewed towards the negative.
36:08So I'm going to go with the Tennessee Titans.
36:11Very low expectations for them. You look at their win total.
36:14I think it's like four and a half wins.
36:17I like the over when it comes to that.
36:20And I like a lot of the teams in the AFC South for the most part.
36:24I like obviously the Jaguars talking about Trevor Lawrence.
36:27He doesn't win MVP unless they win a lot of games.
36:30I did like the Texans a decent amount just because of how suffocating their defense can be.
36:36But now we have more issues with the offensive line.
36:39There's one of their tackles is already on injured reserve.
36:42They lost Jaden Higgins. So is it just the same disappointment from that offense again?
36:46So I'm starting to cool a little bit on the Houston Texans.
36:50And that leaves the Tennessee Titans as that wildcard team where, look, Cam Ward second season with a more competent offensive play caller.
36:57I understand that the preseason stuff has not been great, but it's still preseason season at the end of the day.
37:03And like I talked about with the Bears, Bears offense didn't start firing until after their bye week because it was new between Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams.
37:12People think that the Patriots offense was just elite out of the gates.
37:16They lost to the Raiders in week one and Drake may look really bad.
37:20So it takes some time with these second year quarterbacks when they're actually working with an offensive coach that knows what they're
37:26doing, which I am confident that Brian Dable can be that guy.
37:30Carnal Tate is still a rookie, a top five pick.
37:33I think he has a ton of upside. So give it time.
37:37And the fact that the Cam Ward and the Titans, they get to play the Jets in week one, Robert Sala revenge game.
37:44I think this is where they can use this type of matchup, get a win at home, kind of get themselves a
37:50little bit of a launch for the rest of the season.
37:54So I can't guarantee that they'll win their division because again, the AFC South is a lot tougher than it's been in years past.
38:01But I got no issue fading the Colts just based on Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles injury.
38:06I'm not afraid of that team. Houston, like I said, cooling on the Jaguars are obviously the big team that the Titans would have to overcome.
38:14But every year we see teams go from worst to first in the division.
38:18And if it's not the Saints, it's not the Lions.
38:22I think it could be the Tennessee Titans. I almost put Cam Ward as my player to take the biggest jump because
38:28I think that this Titans team could actually be.
38:31I hope so. He just does things, man. Like, I know it's been ugly at times here in the preseason.
38:37He looked so bad in the preseason. It scared me a little bit.
38:41I'm not gonna lie. He looked bad at times.
38:44Like, and then other times, like we still saw the same things that make him special.
38:48Like, he could just do stuff that other quarterbacks can't.
38:51I think a lot of it is just getting the kinks out here in preseason.
38:56So, like, I get this Titans thing being them being the biggest surprise teams.
39:00I think everyone's got them counted out. Everyone saw the same preseason highlights going around.
39:05Like, I can't more not doing it. Carnell Tate, 50,000 targets, no catches.
39:09Wondell Robinson going to lead the team in yards.
39:11Like, it's just, yeah. A lot of people are hating on the Titans.
39:15I can see I can see them being a surprise.
39:18The thing about Cam Ward is I just want to see them just give him the Daniel Jones diet of first read
39:25heavy stuff and let him use his athleticism. And then I think we see a functional offense and stuff.
39:31Like, don't ask him to read the full field and stuff right now.
39:35I think that's what they're planning on doing. I just think that in the preseason, you're not trying to give away everything.
39:41You're just you're trying to work on some of your hardest stuff that you have in the playbook.
39:47Some of the things that you're like, we kind of suck at this in practice.
39:51See how it works in a game. Let's keep getting these reps and get better at these things.
39:57So, yeah, we could all be right. We could all be wrong on this one.
40:01I don't know. We'll find out about the Titans.
40:04We'll feel good after week one. I mean, you guys take the Titans over the Jets in week one, right?
40:10Yeah. Yeah, sure. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, sure. Yeah. Yeah, sure.
40:13Yeah. I think. Just like some awkward silence. I'm not as confident.
40:17I'm not as confident as I thought I'd be saying that.
40:20But yeah. Yeah, I'll take the Titans over the Jets.
40:23If Robert Sauls can't, he's not going to lose against the Jets.
40:27That's fair. That's fair. I'm all about that narrative.
40:29All right. My biggest surprise team here is going to be the Tampa Bay Bucs.
40:34And I think it's because they are either going to surprise the NFL at being phenomenal or terrible.
40:39Like, this is one of these where they are such a wild card team, where last year injuries derailed them so much.
40:46Whether it was injuries to Bucky Irving, the offensive line, Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, to now it's we see a team that seems to be healthy.
40:55Baker seems to be healthy. The offensive line seems to be improved.
40:58Bucky seems to be good. And then now you've got a book good dealing with the toe issue, but he's back practicing.
41:05So if everyone's healthy, I think this team could take a huge leap forward in the right direction.
41:10They were able to hang on to Vita Vea for the rest of this year.
41:15And I think the defense could be a lot better than it was last year.
41:19But man, I really think all it takes is for a few of the Jenga pieces to come out of the tower
41:26for the whole thing to come crashing down. And this could be one of those teams where I'm just I'm just saying it.
41:33It's the biggest wild card in that division where they are either going to be first or last like they are going
41:40to go full Ricky Bobby this year. Yeah, I can definitely see that.
41:44I mean, I think there's a great narrative behind pissed off contract year Baker Mayfield and what he could be.
41:50There's also the flip side of that coin where Baker has played through so many different injuries.
41:55If this team sucks, loses a lot of games, he gets really dinged up and he's looking at like, look, I don't want to give me a contract.
42:03Fine. I'm not going to play through injuries. I'm not going to sit here and crush myself.
42:08Right. When I'm going to be heading to free agency and we see Javon Daniels starting games.
42:14Yeah, it could either be amazing or go off the rails.
42:17Totally with you on this. I'll go. Man, I forgot that Jalen Daniels was the backup quarterback there in Tampa.
42:23Kid out of Kansas. Yep. That if he has to start games, we're screwed, everybody.
42:27It's over. Not good. 100% back in on the Saints because I mean, looking at this division here, right.
42:33I think it's a two man race between the Saints and the Buccaneers.
42:37And I think all the points you made, Alfredo, make a ton of sense in terms of the boom or bust of
42:44the Buccaneers where Carolina, I think that last year it was their fun ride.
42:48We made it to the playoffs. We gave the Rams a scare.
42:52So I don't expect that to repeat, especially with their brutal schedule.
42:55And the Falcons, man, like they're up there with the Arizona Cardinals.
42:59I'm like, which Redbird team is going to lose the most games this season?
43:03Like that's the situation that the Falcons vibes are giving off right now.
43:07So I know confidence that they're going to win a lot of games, especially when week one on the road at the Pittsburgh Steelers with me.
43:15They don't even know who they're starting. They play games next week.
43:19I mean, I think they do know who they're starting.
43:22They just haven't revealed it. And I think they just feel crap.
43:25They don't like it either. Okay. They feel bad about it too.
43:29That's what they're not going to go out there and tell everyone.
43:32The fact that Jawan Taylor, the guy who got two false starts in the preseason game is their starting right tackle to
43:39protect the blind side of whatever Southpaw quarterback they have on their center against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road.
43:45Dude, it's not good. It's not good. At least like one thing that we can look at here is the Falcon strength.
43:52The schedule is not all that bad, but it's, but it's always like that.
43:56I know. Yeah. But, but when you're not a good team, every, every other team looks a lot better.
44:02And what a stoppable force meets a movable object.
44:05Exactly. Yeah. It's not good. All right. Let's go to our last category here.
44:09Most disappointing team, which is, you know, just slightly adjacent from most surprising team.
44:13Erickson, kick us off with this one. Cause you've had this one written in the show sheet.
44:18So I feel confident going to you first. This is the first one that I actually did put in the show sheet.
44:25So I did tease the bears, but they won't be my most disappointing.
44:29Cause I do think their offense will be fun for fantasy and betting purposes.
44:33So I put the Washington commanders and they're also coming off a disappointing season where Jane Daniels wasn't healthy.
44:39They had issues. Terry McLaurin wasn't healthy as well, but I just look at the potential outcome for the commanders.
44:45And I think that Dan Quinn is alive to be the first head coach fired in the NFL.
44:50When you look at the absolute murderers row of opponents that they have to face to start the season.
44:56And everything I've been reading when it comes to the commanders is that Adam Peters is safe as like the general manager.
45:03I know Debro has some strong feelings against what Adam Peters has been doing and building this roster, which I don't totally disagree with.
45:10A lot of it has been bandaid type of fixes, adding in older veteran wide receivers, not necessarily drafting super well and
45:17not putting Jane Daniels in a position to succeed.
45:19And it kind of reminds me a little bit of the CJ Stroud situation where comes out his rookie year looks elite offensive rookie of the year.
45:27And then offensive line issues just continue to derail the growth of their young quarterback.
45:32Laramie Tunsell is not going to play this season.
45:35Most likely they're stud left tackle. They're starting center.
45:37Nick Allegretti has missed the majority of summer with a calf injury per the athletic describing this offensive line tissue thin interior of the offensive line.
45:45That absolutely terrifies me. And when you look at the schedule, like I mentioned, opening game on the road at the Philadelphia Eagles.
45:52Yeah, not great. And then they have to go on the road to play the Dallas Cowboys, improve defense and they host the Seattle Seahawks.
46:00Then they have to go to London to face the Colts.
46:03Then they come back division game at home against the Giants.
46:06Then they go Monday night football to the 49ers and then playing the Eagles and Rams back to back after they have bye weeks.
46:14I mean, look, I get that Aaron Glenn is the favorite to be the first head coach fired because of how bad last year was.
46:21But Dan Quinn's seat is going to be very, very hot if they open 0-3 heading to London.
46:27I mean, if they lose that London game too, we've seen coaches not come back after the international travels.
46:32So I am very concerned about... They just leave them in London?
46:36They just leave them in London? They just take a trip to Amsterdam?
46:40They leave them in London? They're like, look, you ain't got to go home.
46:44You just got to find your own way home out of here.
46:48So, I mean, tell me if I'm wrong, guys.
46:51But I'm just not getting a ton of confidence with the way the commander's roster is built.
46:56And if things crumble up front, I think Jay Daniels, he's got to be Superman.
47:00I know he can do it, especially when he did his rookie year.
47:04I mean, his rookie year, he didn't have Laramie Tunsil.
47:07So I know that's something that can paint the picture of optimism for him.
47:12But if things just crumble up front and the offensive infrastructure is not there, we know the defense is probably not going to be good.
47:19Like, Sonny Stiles is their answer. He can fix everything potentially.
47:22They paid a lot for that edge rusher in free agency.
47:26But every time teams do that, when they overpay because they don't have any talent and they bring in outside guys, those
47:32guys usually are disappointments relative to the amount of money that they shell out in free agency.
47:38So I just got concerned about the commanders overall.
47:40Do you guys like this take? Am I crazy?
47:43Or is it just trusting Jay Daniels? He'll make it all happen.
47:47Because ultimately, that's how this team survives is he's Superman.
47:50He can do it. I know that he's capable, but I just feel like the support system really isn't super great around him.
47:57Speaking of Superman, I just want to point out Alfredo has a very Superman-esque curl.
48:01It just happens, man. Like, I don't do anything.
48:04I actually try to make sure all the hair stays up.
48:07Like, put it on the tape, baby. Like, you're rocking the Superman curl right now.
48:12But to the point with the commanders, I also want to bring this up very quick, guys.
48:17Is it concerning that Jay Daniels' focus is not totally on this NFL season and he's worried about his number at LSU
48:24and respect being paid on his name and how much of that is him versus his mom and all that kind of stuff?
48:30But again, it's a distraction. It's not a good thing.
48:33I mean, I'm with you on this take, though, Eric.
48:37Because I'm like, this team could fall apart. I think the only thing that keeps me somewhat in is who the offensive
48:43coordinator has been for the commanders early in Jay Daniels' career and Cliff Kingsbury.
48:47Like, he's so good at doing the, I'm going to establish a really easy college-style offense for you to look good in your rookie year.
48:55But that's it. I don't have anything else I can add to this recipe.
48:59So, like, by a year or two. Can't move wide receivers.
49:03Can't do motion. Can't be play action. Can't do anything else.
49:06Like, he's a good college coach. A phenomenal high school coach.
49:09But, like, you ask him to run an offense in the NFL for multiple years and there's just no new wrinkles.
49:16Like, we saw it with Kyler. Not that he's, like, a phenomenal quarterback.
49:19But nothing changed. So, the only thing that gives me a little bit of hope is David Blau coming in and being
49:26like, all right, we're going to do things that play to your strengths.
49:30We're going to get the ball to the best players and get them moving around the offense.
49:35Like, that's the only thing there. But the offensive line concerns me.
49:39The running game concerns me. The defense concerns me.
49:42Like, it might not be enough for the offensive coordinator to, you know, pull a rabbit out of his hat this year.
49:48Like, it's just, the walls might crumble in. What do you think the vibes are after week one for the commanders?
49:55Week two. Week two. Just on to week two.
49:57Yeah. Like, that's what every team does, right? Like, that's what every team does, right?
50:02They win. They lose. Like, they don't care because I still feel like so many NFL teams look at week one as
50:08like, okay, well, we survived that without getting hurt.
50:11We still haven't pulled out our full playbook. Week two.
50:14Like, I really feel like you don't even get a vibe around a team until, like, week three because you're like, oh, we might be ass.
50:22Like, we might not be good if we're 0-3 at that point.
50:26I mean, dude, their opening schedule. They literally, like, could get rid of Dan Quinn.
50:30That's what I mean, dude. It's not good. How many games is it going to take for Dan Quinn to potentially lose his job?
50:38They could walk into week seven bye week with one win.
50:41Like, starting against the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Seahawks, the Colts, the Giants, the 49ers.
50:45They could be 0-6. It's really Aaron Glenn's only hope of not being the first head coach.
50:51Is this someone else? Not that he won't get fired.
50:54Just that he won't be the first one to get fired.
50:57And I'm also not condoning, like, obviously I don't want anyone to lose their job, but I'm just being realistic looking at the numbers.
51:04Not for long. Like, could the Jets actually be the only team that fires two head coaches this year?
51:10Like, if they do fire Aaron Glenn, then make Frank Reich the head coach and the team does worse than they fire him.
51:17They just keep going down the line. Oh, they're like, all right, Gino, here's a headset.
51:22Do both. Woody Johnson always says, hold on here.
51:24We'll see. We'll see. All right, D-Bro, who's your most disappointing team this year?
51:29I just want to start this off with, I want a win and loss projection for y'all for a team.
51:35I'm not going to get the team name out right now, okay?
51:38When you just say right now, the first five weeks of the season, this team plays the Texans, the Lions, the Chargers, the Patriots, and the Rams.
51:47Tell me what your projection when we're heading into week six against the Raiders.
51:51What is your projection for wins and losses for the Buffalo Bills?
51:54Alfredo? I think that team is probably, I think that team is probably three and two heading into week six.
52:00Okay. Erickson? Yeah, I would probably co-sign on that.
52:03Okay. The flip side of that, what if they're one and four?
52:07What if they're two and three? That is a horrible, horrible schedule.
52:10And we still have questions like, yes, the addition of DJ Moore is good, but what else is around DJ Moore?
52:17Can Dalton Decay stay healthy? Do they have the firepower?
52:20Keon Coleman? Come on, give me a break. He's so bad.
52:23I'm sorry. I was charting Josh Allen and I was just like, Keon Coleman cannot get open ever.
52:29He's been awful. And they're transitioning to a new defensive system.
52:32And do they have the right players to run said system?
52:35Are they going to have an actual pass rush this year?
52:39Like these are all legitimate questions. Yeah. And yet all this like pressure is put on Joe Brady of like, we see
52:45what Sean McDermott did in previous years. We're expecting you to do as we're expecting to do better.
52:51Like that's the bar that has been set. And yet that is their schedule to start out the first five weeks of the season.
52:58Do the bills start out slow and everybody's like, okay, maybe this whole Sean McDermott to Joe Brady thing isn't a good thing.
53:05This is what happens, right? Like we have these teams that you go into the year and the expectations are like, hey, Super Bowl or bust.
53:13First, win the division, win the conference. Our quarterback's going to be MVP.
53:17It's so hard to actually hit those expectations. It becomes incredibly easy to be disappointing, especially if you start off slow.
53:23And I think that's the biggest thing like that each of us keep talking about is looking at those initial games, right?
53:30Like we're not looking at week 12 and 13 of what the schedule is.
53:34We're looking early because when a team starts off bad, it is so hard to climb out of that hole, right?
53:40Like for these NFL teams, no matter how good the players are.
53:44So I, I could see it. They wouldn't be my, I find this to be a little more bold than like, than
53:51like an easy going, but I can actually see this happening where the bills end up being one of the more disappointing teams.
53:57Yeah. I mean like when the expectation is you are the new head coach to get us to a Super Bowl and
54:04to win a Super Bowl and you start out with this kind of schedule.
54:08And Oh, after that week six, they get the Raiders.
54:11So fine. That's a win. Then they get the Ravens.
54:14If the Vikings can be a bounce back team with Kyler Murray, it is a horrible schedule until you get to week
54:2110 and then they get the jets, the dolphins, and they get the chiefs, the Patriots, again, the Packers.
54:27Then it kind of lightens up towards the back end of the season.
54:31But this is tough when the expectations and the bar is set that damn high for a new head coach to be
54:37like, look, you have to, you in your first year, you don't have to meet the bar.
54:43You have to exceed it or we have a problem.
54:46It's tough, man. It's tough. Yeah. I have a similar team here.
54:49That's going to be my most disappointing. And it's the same thing where they got to win the division.
54:55They got to be really good. The offense has to crush.
54:58The quarterback has to be an MVP candidate. It's the Chargers, man.
55:02Like, is there not a team that disappoints more often than the Chargers like every year?
55:07And it's not necessarily because they have bad players.
55:09They just can't stay healthy. Or Justin Herbert shrinks in big moments.
55:13And it does happen. Like, charting him, I saw it.
55:16Like, he becomes a different guy. And now this year, we're really depending on Mike McDaniel to be this brilliant offensive mind.
55:23And that in many ways, he does show that at times.
55:26But we're asking him to now coalesce with Jim Harbaugh.
55:29Jim Harbaugh? John Harbaugh? I mix them up all the time.
55:32This is Jim? Jimbo? Jim. Jim. We're asking them to work together.
55:36And I'm not going to lie. The Mike McDaniel quips always seem fun.
55:40The ankles showing underneath the joggers seem like, oh, this guy's different and hip and cool.
55:45And then by week seven, when you're not playing so well and your team is two and four, you're like, actually, these things are kind of effed up.
55:53Like, I just really want you to take this seriously.
55:56Maybe have Ben Johnson talk to him, be a little less goofy, because I'm looking at the opening schedule for the Chargers right now.
56:04I think they win their first two games, Arizona and Vegas.
56:07Those are easy. But then they get the Buffalo Bills, the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, a bye week.
56:13Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens. Like, there's a shot that they go into week 10 with two wins.
56:19Yeah. So what you're saying, Alfredo, is we take all of our winnings from the Chargers to the first two weeks, put
56:26them on the Saints for the rest. Exactly. Yes.
56:29Yes. You heard it here first, folks. Maybe first.
56:31I don't know. Might be second. The other quiet question that I have about this team is everybody is talking about this
56:38offensive line like it's going to be like immaculate and it's going to go right back to being amazing.
56:44They're already hurt. I know. And the defense is so bad.
56:47Just the center. Sean Slater is not practicing fully and yet everybody is talking about it like it's all over.
56:53It'll be fine. No worries. It's all good, baby.
56:56I love it. Even in the chamber. It quietly isn't.
56:59And they lost their center for the entire freaking season.
57:02And they have both straight to the ball. And they have both straight to the ball.
57:07The rookie? Yes. Yeah. But it's all good. That's rough.
57:10That's what he naturally plays though. It's all good.
57:13Center though, right? It's still rough, man. Still rough.
57:15It's all good though. I'm attracted by that. You can give love to his shoe game though.
57:20It's a nice. What's that accent? Where is that from?
57:24Where is that originating from? I have no clue.
57:26I'm working with like cold, like Isaac Hayes kind of voice right now.
57:30So anything that comes out of my head with Dayquil hopped up on it, just take it with a grain of salt.
57:37Okay. Just real quick. Let's do this. We gave all of our predictions for the year.
57:42Some bold, some mild. But what I did was I went to the beautiful folks that watch and listen to this show
57:48out on the Twitter machine and I asked them to give us their bold predictions.
57:53So we've got some fun ones here, guys. What I want you to do is we're going to go rapid fire through
57:59these so we can make our time. You're going to rate these one to five, one being the least spicy and very,
58:06very mild five being whatever that thing is on hot ones that everyone cries when they eat.
58:11All right. So let's start off here. Sia Najad over from CBS Sportsline actually says Bucky Irving will lead the league in rushing touchdowns.
58:19Oh, four. That's a four for me. Yeah. It's possible, but it's hot.
58:22I agree. It's hot. I agree. It's hot. It's hot.
58:26Shout out to Sia. Sia. Yeah. It was hotter before Sean Tucker.
58:29He was going to get cut, though. It was hot before then.
58:33Jamie Calandro says Trey McBride finishes below Colston Loveland and Tyler.
58:36Warren and tight end scoring this year. Two. This doesn't feel super spicy, especially if it's like standard league.
58:42Feels like it's it's the tight end two is going to finish behind the tight end three and four right now in ADP.
58:49Yeah. Feels very possible. Like remarkably possible. It doesn't feel super.
58:52Especially if Carson Beck is playing games this season or Gardner Minshew.
58:56We'll stop. Stop. Oh, the Rob Parker one. Oh, let's do it.
58:59Rob Parker. D-Bro's like, yes. Oh, yes. Rob, my man.
59:02My man, Rob. Let's go. The problem here is that Rob spelled the name wrong.
59:07He said Tyler Bajant fills in for Kayab. You almost stuck to landing, baby.
59:11The Madden creative player throws the Madden cover boy on the Bears offense.
59:15Tyler Bajant fills in for Kayab Williams and runs the offense more efficiently.
59:19They eventually keep him as a starter. Rob, is Rob just trolling because he messed up the first name for the guys?
59:26It's phenomenal. This one's 100 out of 10. This is phenomenal.
59:29Yeah. The fact that he said Tyler Madden is sweet.
59:32Oh, Rob. Poor Rob. We almost landed the plane.
59:35I mean, I'll give up since I kind of co-signed him.
59:38Since I co-signed this, I'll give it a four.
59:41Who is the pilot that had to land the plane upside down?
59:44Like in the water? Oh, good. It was like a famous thing.
59:48I don't know. That's what he did here. I don't remember the pilot's name.
59:52I remember Tom Hanks played him in a movie.
59:55Yeah, the Tom Hanks movie. That's the Tom Hanks movie.
59:58Probably. I get mixed up with all my pilot movies.
60:01All right. Next one on here at Boo Boo Jojo.
60:04There was one with Denzel, wasn't there? Where like the guy was, he was like rumored to be like on pills or drunk or something.
60:12And then he had a Sullenberger, by the way.
60:14That's that man. Sully. And that's who Sully is.
60:17In the other Denzel movie where the guy was hopped up on like coke and all kinds of stuff.
60:23Yeah. That was a wild ride, man. All right.
60:26Next one here is from Boo Boo Jojo. I just really wanted to say that.
60:30People thinking that Mark Andrews is done is absolutely wild.
60:33He was banged up for most of 2025 as they likely is gone.
60:37Upgrade at the wide receiver positions to take extra coverage away.
60:40Defenses thinking he's done also will leave more favorable matchups.
60:43I don't know, man. When you start to say that everyone thinks he's done, including the opposing defenses, except for you.
60:50It seems like a bit much. Do we have a location for Boo Boo Jojo?
60:54Is he in Baltimore? No, we just have a Ravens homer tank here.
60:58Well, he spelled defense the way people do across the pond.
61:02So I've got a feeling this is a foreigner.
61:04I mean, you know, Mark, I'm just glad that Mark Andrews or well, we're assuming Mark Andrews because he didn't give the first name.
61:12But I give this Matt Andrews just with Tyler Bajan.
61:15I give this. I mean, I would be very surprised if Mark Andrews has a really productive season.
61:20So I think that this is bold because I look when you have less yards out to the catch and Zach Ertz.
61:27I just don't go back to those tight ends, unfortunately.
61:30So I'm happy to be wrong. I like Mike Andrews.
61:33Mark Andrews as a player. Mike is fine. Mike Andrews is allowing him to say Mike Andrews.
61:38And Kaye Williams. Mike Andrews catching touchdowns from Tyler Bajan.
61:41It's going to be sick. Yeah. Insider reporting from Eric Anderson here.
61:45You got to love it. Head coach Eric Glenn.
61:47All right. We got to land the plane, boys.
61:50Come on, Alfredo. Take the radio. Roddy and Sully, baby.
61:53Let's go. Last one here. Let's do it. Steelers with a losing record near the end of the season turned to Drew
62:00Aller who puts up crazy stats during the fantasy playoffs.
62:03I mean, that's yeah. Do the Steelers go to Drew Aller?
62:06No. I can see him going to Drew Aller.
62:09I don't know. What's their schedule like in the fantasy playoffs?
62:12I mean, if they play a bunch of like crappy teams, like I could see that.
62:17I think I don't hate that one. I'll give it three.
62:20Too much preseason hopium. I'm at a five on that.
62:23That's that's spice. I watched Drew Aller struggle against my FIU Golden Panthers who are a horrendous football team.
62:29But he hadn't unlearned the position yet. And now he's.
62:32Oh, good. Good. I love that for my rookie quarterback.
62:35He's been bolded. He's been bolded in the exact way that Mike McCarthy wants his rookie quarterbacks.
62:40Oh, good. Yeah. That's always. And Aaron Rodgers is going to going to give him some tutelage, too, because both those things.
62:47Rodgers is going to go in the darkness during.
62:50Aaron Rodgers, well known for being a friend to younger players.
62:53Yeah. All the time. For Christmas, he'll get him one of those little headlamps so he can read in the cave, you know.
63:00So he can actually read the playbook with him.
63:03All right, guys, that is going to do it for us here at the tailgate.
63:07I want to thank everybody for watching or listening all the way through.
63:11Don't forget to leave a like on this video.
63:14Hype this video. Leave your comments down below for myself, for Debro, for Erickson.
63:18We'll see you next time. Adios. Wait, I came in for two things.
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