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0:28Hello everybody, welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Tara Roberts.
0:32Tara, we are back for year two of our Moves to Make series.
0:36We're going to be bringing you five Moves to Make ahead of each week, so of course this is ahead of week two.
0:43Hard to believe we're already even talking about week two.
0:46Week one has been so in my brain for the last several months that it feels a bit crazy, frankly, to be thinking about week two already.
0:54But that is what we are doing. Just a reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at FantasyPros.com.
1:02Slash rankings. Before we dive in, Tara, I was just asking you before recording, but I'll ask you on air as well, how was week one for you?
1:10It was good. You know, I separate everything out into categories.
1:14So, good Fantasy week. Great DFS week. Don't tell my kids or they'll ask for stuff.
1:19And then, um, betting week. The anytime touchdowns went sideways, but the players did good.
1:23So I give myself like a mea culpa, like halfway, like you had the right thought process, but the touchdowns did not
1:30come for my players that actually had big days.
1:32It was random. It was a spiritual win, even though you didn't actually win with the touchdowns.
1:37Exactly. One in spirit, uh, which we support here on this show.
1:41Like I said, we're doing five moves to make here.
1:44So a shorter episode here for folks, both on audio and on the YouTube audience.
1:49And there's no limitation here, right? You can go with players you want to buy.
1:53You can go to players you want to sell.
1:56You can come up with others like, oh, this waiver pickup is the best pickup of the week.
2:01Or, you know, maybe look to move this guy, but it's not a sell at a cost shop, you know, stuff like that.
2:08So curious to see what direction you went in here.
2:11It should be a mix of all those. But, uh, just to kind of let the audience know in case you didn't
2:18follow the show last year, that it's not limited by it must be buys, must be sells that it just moves to
2:24make every thinking about making here on a weekly basis.
2:27Let's start off with your first one, Tara. What do you got for us?
2:31Yeah, I was partial to the drops last year, but I can't do the dramatic drops in week one.
2:37We got to do, you know, the reasonable ones.
2:40And so we'll leave those to the side and we're just going to do buys and sells and a little caveat there towards the end.
2:47We're going to start off with a buy, but it's a multiple buy.
2:51It's a buy a bear, kind of like a build a bear.
2:55We're just going to buy a bear, pick one because good Lord, the bears pass catchers were a mess in week one.
3:01I cannot promise you, but I find it hard to believe that our leading bears pass catcher rest of season is Kalief Raymond.
3:08He had eight receptions, nine targets, 84 yards. Luther Burden had five receptions on five targets, 63 yards and a fumble.
3:15Roma Dunze, two receptions on three targets, 52 yards.
3:17You could definitely tell he was limited due to the injury.
3:21Then we had Colston Loveland, who literally just blocked while Cole Komet caught a touchdown pass.
3:25So it was just such a weird week for when we were talking all draft season.
3:30These were guys that were all very bunched up together in a range where you just within two rounds of each other,
3:37you were picking between five different bears and a wide variety of positions.
3:41So for guys that we invested in to be starters this early to put up duds was highly disappointing, but it should
3:47not be like this every single week. The offense leaned heavily on the ground game with over 200 yards for both of
3:54the running backs who looked excellent, but this was a run friendly matchup.
3:58And then we had 65 yards and two rushing touchdowns for Caleb Williams.
4:02So yeah, this game was just a little bit tilted.
4:05And again, a dunze was limited due to the injury.
4:08He played roughly 50% of snaps. Loveland ran the most routes of any bears pass catcher.
4:12It just amounted to quite literally nothing. So I think it was just one of these weird games where everything went sideways
4:19for everyone that we wanted to succeed. We saw this last season earlier in the season, I chalked it up and I
4:26think we all talked it up to, you know, rookies being eased in, but perhaps this is just something where the offense
4:32under Ben Johnson likes to experiment early on, depending on the matchup before we really see upside settle in.
4:38When I'm talking about which one of these guys we should buy, I think all three are reasonable.
4:43Roma Dunze is likely the easiest player to grab.
4:46He was the one that was last drafted of the group.
4:49A little bit tougher with Colston Loveland because Loveland, perhaps the Loveland manager may not have a secondary option, but it's possible
4:56that maybe they paired up with a backup like Dallas Goddard and they'd maybe be ready to make that move.
5:02So just check and see. And then obviously Luther Burden is probably a higher price tag as well, but it's just one
5:08of these situations where you go out, see what's available and try to buy on the cheap if people are panicking.
5:15If we think of these three names, Loveland, Adunze and Burden as by Lowe's, are you interested in buying high on DeAndre Swift, on Caleb Williams?
5:23Like, are you looking at this Bears offense in general saying, yeah, they're not going to score 59 points every week, but
5:29this is going to be like a team that flirts with the record of most points scored in a season like Ben
5:36Johnson has talked about and has the bad defense.
5:38So there's going to be a lot of shootouts.
5:41Are you interested in buying high on the Bears who did have good games?
5:45Yes, but probably not on Caleb Williams, because I feel like there is enough general hype and positivity around him based off
5:52last season that everyone is going to be asking for well over price.
5:56So it's no negative towards him. I think it's going to be a wonderful season.
6:00He has legitimate top five upside every single week, but it probably is going to be kind of a hefty cost.
6:07You can probably get DeAndre Swift for a reasonable amount, especially considering that Kyle Menungay had a strong overall game as well.
6:13So perhaps there's, you know, concerns, hey, this is committee when it's a little bit less run heavy.
6:19Swift's weeks are going to be mediocre. So we already know that people have a lot of odd sentiments throughout their throughout
6:25the tenure of DeAndre Swift's entire career. So he's probably the one who off of this big game, you could realistically buy.
6:32I think you have another buy on the list for us.
6:35Who are you looking at? I do. I have a buy for Drake London.
6:39This one is a really easy sell for me in terms of why we should buy it and a very critical one for me.
6:46You're making the sale. You're making the sale. You're not selling Drake London.
6:50Exactly. I am making the sell for you guys to buy Drake London.
6:54And Drake London doesn't have a Drake London problem.
6:57Drake London just has a quarterback problem. And that quarterback problem is very specific and it does not extend to Michael Penix.
7:04So it's a little bit different of a situation than when you look at some other teams and you might look at
7:10a wide receiver one that has quarterback problem. You look at the backup and say, oh, my God, it just might not get any better.
7:18But it's different with Atlanta because we do have the promise of Penix.
7:22It's crazy. You wouldn't think that we would say the promise of Penix.
7:25But that is the point at which we're at with him because it's a Tua Tagovailoa and a Cooper Rush problem.
7:32With Cooper Rush, Atlanta turned to him as the veteran instead of risking it with rookie Jack Strand.
7:37But Rush really didn't have a ton of preparation within this offense, let alone since week since the Tua injury happened, you know, a little bit suddenly.
7:45So this wasn't exactly something that they had been remotely preparing for.
7:49So I'm not shocked that he had an underwhelming performance.
7:52And by no means am I saying that he's going to turn around and be the second coming of anything spectacular.
7:58But if he does have to start, I would assume it would be a little bit better.
8:03But regarding Tua Tagovailoa, I've been pretty transparent during draft seasons about my concerns that Tua is not the right quarterback specifically for Drake London.
8:11He's never used a receiver like Drake London in his NFL career.
8:14He's used to guys like Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle types.
8:18And preseason really showed us that Tua is a temporary solution.
8:21We didn't see anything positive. He is not the permanent answer.
8:24And when Michael Penix is ready to play, when he's fully healthy, when he's 100% ready to go, I do believe that
8:31he is destined to be the starting quarterback. And I know that people have their skepticisms around Penix's future and upside for Atlanta as a whole.
8:39But he is specifically exactly what Drake London needs.
8:41Penix and London played nine games together last season.
8:44London averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game over that time period.
8:47That was wide receiver three overall. He was literally bested by JSN and Puka Nakua.
8:52Michael Penix is not perfect by any means. There will be low games, of course.
8:56But nine times out of ten, ten times out of ten, give me the quarterback that gives Drake London insane league-winning upside on a week-to-week basis.
9:04I'll take a couple of subpar games where Penix is acting crazy to reap the benefits of the amount of volume that he pushes specifically to Drake London.
9:12The 100-plus-yard games back-to-back-to-back when he was a starter, it was just beautiful.
9:16So I still see Drake London as a good prime buy because the panic has set in.
9:21I do not think that we will get much better results with Tua.
9:25Probably see an uptick in volume in terms of what Kyle Pitts will see with Tua at quarterback because he's a little more tight-end friendly.
9:33But once we can get Michael Penix on the field, and I do feel like we're somewhat close, we'll then see that
9:39true league-winning upside unlocked for Drake London. I said when I was taping the tailgate earlier this morning with Debro and Erickson
9:46that one of my conclusions from week one is that all Falcons other than Bijan Robinson are sittable until further notice, and further notice being Penix showing up.
9:54And the reason I say that is to say that I agree with London as a good trade target.
10:00I just would say in the meantime, until Penix is out there, don't be so beholden to the draft capital you spent on him.
10:07And same with Pitts. Don't be beholden to whatever you give up in a trade if you do go out and acquire
10:14these guys and buy low on them, and specifically on London.
10:17Don't pay attention too much to the cost to get them.
10:20Just be patient and find other options for now.
10:23And if you don't trade, if you're holding them and you already drafted them and you're the one who's kind of –
10:30I feel like you're left holding the bag. Just hold out until Michael Penix is there and then go back to starting
10:36them with a bit more confidence, again, specifically London.
10:39Trade for him, but don't start him yet until Penix is out there is sort of my stance on it.
10:45Yeah. Yeah. I mean, hopefully maybe things with Cooper Rush once he gets a little bit more footing.
10:50If he does have to start a little bit more footing and things can get slightly better.
10:56I mean, we did see – She was so bad for Baltimore last year.
11:00Yeah. It was hard to watch. Yeah. You think back to the Dallas times and there were decent times, but the upside was – was it really?
11:08But I don't know. We just saw Drew Locke go out there and JSN, BJSN.
11:12But at the end of the day, we're waiting for Penix, guys.
11:16We're waiting for Penix. Give me a player that you are selling, Tara.
11:20I am selling Dalton Kincaid. I'm so sorry, buddy.
11:23I want to believe. It's not a talent issue.
11:25I mean, he's got all the talent in the world.
11:28Dalton Kincaid was not a top 10 draft target for me.
11:32He was not top 12 – or sorry, not even top 12 in tight end rankings for me in draft season.
11:38But he was definitely a top 12 tight end in my week one rankings.
11:42When he's on the field and when he's healthy, I expect a good game from him.
11:47And I thought this was a very good matchup, so I felt super comfortable with him.
11:52I have zero issues. But the health has been a repeated concern for him.
11:56We've had back-to-back seasons where he's missed four to five games, and that doesn't include the ones where he played through the injury, which is cool.
12:04I'm glad you got out there. He tried to push through, but he was on limited snaps.
12:09It was mediocre, extremely subpar production. So given all the underwhelming tight end performances that we had in week one, plus the
12:15Brock Bowers injury, there are plenty of fantasy managers that are looking at Dalton Kincaid, remembering this is a first-round pick, and
12:22they're willing to pay well to get a guy whose quarterback is Josh Allen.
12:26He's got talent. So these are all upsides. It's not a hard sell.
12:30But again, we've got the health issues, and the health issues are not the only reason to sell.
12:35Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards in this game, and the running was minimized.
12:40His running was minimized. James Cook's running was minimized.
12:43He had just 13 carries for 57 yards. This is not a typical weekly outcome, but it's easy to look at this
12:49with rosy color, rose-colored glasses, and say, okay, well, we've got the addition of DJ Moore.
12:54We've got a change in offensive coordinator. Really, it's still the vision of Joe Brady overall, and maybe this is the year
13:01where we're finally going to get this, you know, offense unlocked with massive pass volume, back up to 600 attempts.
13:07But I just don't see that being the regular scenario.
13:10So on a weekly basis, I mean, this game had 67 total points scored.
13:14That volume is going to come down in games where they feel they can rely more on the running backs or is
13:20a better matchup for a James Cook. I mean, even Josh Allen didn't run significantly.
13:25So pass volume will come down. And when it comes down, you've got to remember, there are a lot of bodies in here.
13:32DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Don Kincaid, and, you know, there are younger pieces they want to still try to work in as well.
13:39So from that perspective, this is probably one of the peak performances we'll see from Dalton Kincaid.
13:44When he's healthy, it's always fantastic. But if you have the, if you drafted well, and you have the opportunity to start
13:50somebody else, and you can capitalize on selling Dalton Kincaid at a peak, get some hype and get a good player back, I think that's a fine route.
13:59Where would you rank him rest of season amongst tight ends?
14:02Because, you know, we saw a couple of these late tight ends hit this week.
14:07Dallas Goddard, a couple of touchdowns. I say likely a couple of touchdowns.
14:10Dalton Kincaid, a big game. Guys that were going outside the top 10.
14:14Obviously, there was sort of a set it and forget it top seven or eight tight ends in draft rankings.
14:20When you look at just kind of the guys who hit late, the guys early and how they performed early, obviously Bowers with the injury as well.
14:28Where does Kincaid fall into that ranking for you rest of season?
14:32Around tight end 13 rest of season. And I think that, you know, depends on somewhat of what we see tonight as well.
14:39I'd like to see how Travis Kelsey gets out there and performs.
14:42But just a little bit lower than what we have.
14:45I know that, you know, in rest of season rankings, he's a clear top 10 option, which makes sense because, you know,
14:52you start to get that panic in moving down of guys like Harold Fannin Jr.
14:57So he'll shift upwards. And as that continues to grow, you can capitalize whereas other people are panicking on the tight ends that have been failing.
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15:45All right, we've got two more players here. Tara, give me another player that you are selling.
15:50I'm going to do a caveat here and do a shop.
15:53We're not hard-selling. We're shopping it around, and we're seeing what the market is, getting a feel for it.
15:59We are shopping around A.J. Brown. So initially, you know, my thoughts, now granted, we've been in this, like, it's been, like,
16:05days of us, so it's not like we've had an extended period of time trying to figure out what we're doing.
16:12But my initial thoughts were as well, okay, he's so talented.
16:15He is the wide receiver one. We saw Romeo Dobbs look objectively awful, so hey, you know, maybe in a strong league
16:21where you've got the ability to stash him on IR, you know, maybe he's a buy low.
16:26But then my thought process changed after analysis from Dr.
16:29Deepak Chona on our Sunday night recap show last night.
16:32I don't know if we can do that, stash on IR, and call it a day, because he talked about the fact
16:39that we are not just dealing with the time that A.J.
16:42Brown will be out. We're also dealing with a downturn in performance after he returns.
16:47It's a severe high ankle sprain. So the version of A.J.
16:50Brown that we get when he actually does return, which, again, we're talking about a minimum of six weeks, that's the expectation perhaps it extends on.
16:58You know A.J. Brown, he's not going to force himself back if it doesn't quite feel right.
17:03So we're talking about this extended absence, and then when he returns, he won't be operating at peak level.
17:09And it's not that he'll be unstartable from a fantasy perspective.
17:12He'll be the wider saber one, but it'll be underwhelming for the price that you paid when you were drafting him.
17:18I mean, we spent all offseason explaining C.D. Lamb's dip in production.
17:22It wasn't just related to George Pickens, but it was also the downturn in performance that he had from a high ankle sprain.
17:29Oh, so that raises like red flags. If we can acknowledge that for C.D.
17:33Lamb, we might need to prepare ourselves for that with A.J.
17:36Brown. So the thought process is that you start shopping him around, because as I look around social media and try to get feedback, there are buyers.
17:44There are 100% buyers who are more than willing to grab him, hold him, stash him on IR in hopes of reaping the benefits when he returns.
17:53You can sell, get a solid asset, and call it a day.
17:56But we're shopping him around. We're not at a must-sell point unless it is truly detrimental to your roster and you can't
18:03afford it, because you don't want to dramatically undersell him and take a massive hit.
18:07You know, if you want to take a little minimal hit right now, okay, but not a massive blow.
18:13Get a feel out for your league. See if someone will pay a reasonable price.
18:17Just shop it around right now. What sounds like a reasonable price to you?
18:22Like when you talk about shopping A.J. Brown, are there names out there that you think make sense as far as like, yeah, that's fair on both sides.
18:30It's worth the risk or it's worth getting out from under A.J.
18:34Brown in the roller coaster of the injury? Like what sounds like a fair deal to you?
18:39I hate to double dip, but a Drake London.
18:41I can wait for a couple of weeks of Michael Pinnock's to come back versus six weeks of A.J.
18:47Brown to come back plus a dip in performance.
18:50So you might not, again, you're exchanging guys that were drafted relatively close.
18:54We know they have the same upside, but arguably I would say that Drake London might have the higher upside, particularly for
19:00the fact that, again, when we've seen New England, what we saw in week one wasn't the most effective offense in the world.
19:07We know it's going to be a tougher schedule.
19:10We know that they like to lean on the ground game as opposed to Atlanta, who, while they can lean on B.J.
19:16Robinson, does push a decent amount of volume and will hyper target and funnel directly to Drake London.
19:22So arguably potentially some higher upside there. So yeah, I might do that little one for one exchange there and take a
19:28couple weeks of a hit and then reap the benefits of Drake London when he gets Michael Pinnock's.
19:34I like that call quite a bit. Any other moves to make this week, Tara?
19:38We're going to do one more and put your pitchforks down, people.
19:42Don't be mad at me because I can already see it in the comments.
19:46Like now I can see you typing in my eyes.
19:49We're going to sell Mike Evans. Don't get mad.
19:52I love Mike Evans dearly. And I saved this one for last because it doesn't require a lot of explanation, like discussion
19:58in terms of like, you know, other players that are involved or pass volume or quarterbacks or schedules.
20:04Like it's very straightforward. Yeah. He's a sell high because the happy reactions to his performance and how he is going to pay off at his ADP.
20:12They were very clear, very understandable. People are feeling very good.
20:15And those who missed out on that good value, Mike Evans are might, might be feeling like, man, I really wish I could get that.
20:23So there's a good market in there for people that are willing to buy off of this game thinking that, okay, this was an entry level game.
20:31We're going to see the higher level of Mike Evans.
20:34And that for sure can happen because when Mike Evans is on the field, any field, he is one of, if not the best receiver out there.
20:42He's so talented and it wasn't even a big game from him.
20:45He had six receptions on seven targets, 48 yards, a touchdown, right?
20:49So there's more upside. He looked like a bully out there and he's just dominant.
20:54So there's no negative with Mike Evans, but you can't let one game lull you into forgetting that he has dealt with
21:00repeated injury issues in back to back seasons. And yes, everyone has injury risk.
21:04It happens like we, we lose little 22 year olds for injuries out for the entire season.
21:09So like age obviously doesn't have to be the deciding factor, but we've seen this in back to back seasons that he's been repeatedly dealing with hamstring injuries.
21:18And when you're talking about a 33 year old receiver that keeps having these issues and can't make it through the season,
21:24he does factually have an elevated injury risk attached to him.
21:28So it's just looking around, seeing if you can sell high to capitalize on people who want to take advantage of a
21:34guy who was clearly the wide receiver one for a San Francisco 49ers team that looked very excellent.
21:40And so there's positive days ahead. So you can get a really good trade value out of this for a guy that
21:46might not be available for you a month from now.
21:49This isn't any fun, Tara. We don't want to hear this about one of the great receivers.
21:54I don't want to say it. I love him.
21:57I think it's fair. Debro was talking a lot on one of the other shows about like, oh, if you thought Mike
22:04Evans was washed, like you, you sure had to eat crow this week.
22:08I'm like, it's not that I thought he was washed.
22:11It's that I'm worried about getting 17 games out of him.
22:14I don't know how you can feel confident there.
22:17Yeah, he's not washed. When he's on the field, he is the best.
22:21But can he stay on the field a full 17?
22:24I don't know if I would make that bet.
22:26I don't know that I would either. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
22:31Thanks, everybody, for checking out our five moves to make before week two.
22:35For Tara, I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time.
22:38Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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