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NFL Week 1 Player Props: 10 Best Bets + Anytime & First TD Picks (Ep. 2184)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

46 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 11, 2026
Published
Fri, September 11, 2026
21
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Charlie KolarGreg DulcichJuwan JohnsonJahmyr GibbsJake FergusonJalen HurtsJameson WilliamsJonathan TaylorJordan AddisonMatthew GoldenMichael MayerMike EvansParker WashingtonQuentin Johnston
Player analysis

Player insights

21

Charlie Kolar

PositiveProjection38:04

Kolar is a first touchdown scorer bet at +2000. He is expected to lead the Chargers' tight end room in snaps and red zone opportunities against an Arizona defense that struggled significantly against tight ends last season.

Insight page
PositiveProjection38:16

Charlie Kolar is a strong first touchdown bet against the Arizona Cardinals; he is an underrated receiver who the team likes for his blocking, which will keep him on the field for play-action opportunities in the end zone. Arizona struggled significantly against tight ends last season, ranking in the bottom five, and the current defensive staff retains elements from that previous regime.

Insight page

Greg Dulcich

PositiveProjection18:42

Dulcich is a strong over bet for receiving yards against a Raiders defense that struggles against tight ends; the Raiders allowed the 5th most yards to coverage linebackers (Quay Walker) and feature poor safety coverage (Isaiah Polamalu, Jeremy Chinn). The line has moved from 16.5 to 24, and it remains a 4-star bet on BettingPros.

Insight page
PositiveProjection29:06

Erickson likes Greg Dulcich to go over 24.5 receiving yards, noting he is the most accomplished pass catcher in a depleted Dolphins room. He highlights favorable matchups against Raiders defenders Isaiah Polamalu and Quay Walker, who struggled in coverage last season.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveUsage42:18

Jahmyr Gibbs is projected to have a massive scoring season, with the analysts suggesting a 'rollover' betting strategy on him to score a touchdown every week. His outlook is bolstered by the absence of David Montgomery in certain packages and the Lions' favorable schedule.

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Jake Ferguson

PositiveUsage27:05

Ferguson is an under bet for 3.5 receptions against the Giants. Data shows his target share and reception volume decrease significantly when CeeDee Lamb and other primary weapons are active in the lineup.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeUsage22:36

Hurts is projected to finish under 29.5 passing attempts against the Commanders. With Lane Johnson healthy, the Eagles historically lean toward a run-heavy approach, and the new coaching staff (Sean Mannion) is expected to prioritize the run game.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveProjection36:06

Williams is a high-upside anytime touchdown bet at +180. He is a major threat for long-distance scores and is in a favorable matchup against the Saints' secondary.

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Jonathan Taylor

PositiveProjection8:23

Erickson projects Jonathan Taylor to exceed 76.5 rushing yards against the Ravens, citing his career average of over 100 yards at home and the Ravens' defensive front vulnerabilities, specifically noting potential absences of key interior defenders like Justin Madubuike.

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Jordan Addison

PositiveProjection39:49

Jordan Addison is highlighted as a fun option for a first touchdown bet on the Vikings side of the matchup.

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Juwan Johnson

PositiveUsage18:32

Erickson expects Juwan Johnson to clear 42.5 receiving yards against Detroit, noting he is the clear-cut number two receiver for the Saints with Jordan Tyson out. He highlights Johnson's high target share and chemistry with Tyler Shough.

Insight page
PositiveProjection32:29

Johnson is a strong anytime touchdown candidate at +240. Despite strong yardage last year, he was held back by low touchdown variance; with Taysom Hill gone and Alvin Kamara aging, Johnson is primed for positive touchdown regression in the red zone.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveProjection40:10

Matthew Golden is a recommended first touchdown bet at 19-to-1 odds. He is expected to see increased opportunities as a deep-ball threat, especially with opposing cornerbacks likely focused on other receivers, allowing Golden to utilize his full route tree.

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Michael Mayer

PositiveUsage24:58

Mayer is a 5-star over bet on 39.5 receiving yards. Without Brock Bowers in the lineup, Mayer's usage increases significantly, averaging around 6 targets and 49 yards per game in those splits.

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Mike Evans

NegativeInjury42:56

While Mike Evans is a candidate for a touchdown rollover betting strategy, there is concern regarding his durability due to recurring hamstring issues that may cause him to miss games.

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Parker Washington

PositiveMatchup21:38

Welsh recommends betting the over on 4.5 receptions for Parker Washington at plus money, citing a massive mismatch against Browns slot cornerback Miles Harden, who is graded 106th out of 109 by PFF.

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Quentin Johnston

PositiveBreakout13:29

Welsh is high on Quentin Johnston, noting he has hit his receiving prop in two of his last three games and benefits from a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense ranked 32nd. He suggests Johnston has significant upside for 40+ yard plays.

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Rashid Shaheed

PositiveBust2:00

Erickson notes that Rashid Shaheed has been a disappointment as a sleeper pick, failing to deliver on recent expectations.

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Rico Dowdle

PositiveProjection20:41

Dowdle is a high-confidence over bet on 42.5 rushing yards against the Falcons, as FantasyPros projections peg him for 52 yards. The Falcons have a bottom-10 defensive line, and Dowdle is expected to see a heavy workload as the Steelers' primary ground option.

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Tre Tucker

PositiveProjection36:47

Tucker is a deep-value anytime touchdown bet at +250. He possesses breakaway speed and is expected to serve as a primary wide receiver option against a weak Dolphins defense.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeProjection28:05

Worthy is a 5-star under bet on 38.5 receiving yards. BettingPros projections suggest 31.5 yards, and Worthy is not currently a feature piece of the offense, having failed to clear this line in two of his last three games.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

598
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Icon and yeah, new artists carrying the torch right now, present day.
0:05But it ain't just songs though, it's the stories behind them.
0:09The lyrics, the moments, what those records meant when they hit.
0:12Yo, go check out the full Sprite Living Tracklist and get into the stories behind your favorite bars, I like that.
0:18At livingtracklist.genius.com This is the Sprite Living Tracklist. Obey your thirst.
0:21Welcome into Betting Pros. This is the Week 1 Prop Show.
0:24I'm Chris Welsh, that is Andrew Erickson. We are back for, I believe, us together is our third straight year.
0:30And we are going to be going through our top 10 favorite prop bets for Week 1.
0:35And then we're not going to even be done there.
0:37We've got a little bit more. We're going to get back into the touchdown streets.
0:42We're going to be tracking them again this year.
0:44Little extra wrinkle on the touchdowns. And because Andrew Erickson at, and if Andrew Erickson asks you, you make it happen.
0:50First touchdowns. We are going to be putting a first, our favorite first touchdown for the week at the bottom of the list.
0:57So if you guys want to play a guessing game, here's where it is.
1:01Every single week, guess what second tight end on a team will be Erickson's big play.
1:05And you know he's going to hit one or two and it's going to be big money.
1:10That's what we got in store for you here on the Betting Pros Prop Show.
1:14I'm super stoked to be back with you, Erickson.
1:17I'm excited to dig into all these. I will say, not feeling so great after I felt so good on Wednesday Night Football about Rashid Shaheed.
1:24Thursday Night Football, I felt so good about Dijon Stribbling.
1:27None of those are worked out. So I'm a little bit timid about the props we're going to release today.
1:33But we are coming right off of a Wednesday and a Thursday night game where both of our teams played.
1:39So I'm glad to be back in the streets with you, brother.
1:42Yeah, I mean, there's so much NFL action happening right now.
1:45My mind can go in so many different ways.
1:48It's actually Friday here while we're recording. So I am on Australia time.
1:52You are still in the depths of September 10th on Thursday.
1:55So it must be nice. But we are here on Friday and I'm just reflecting on all the stuff that's happened.
2:01My two sleeper picks have totally bombed in back to back weeks with Rashid Shaheed bomb.
2:05Stribbling's already injured, so he's probably not going to be a sleeper this year.
2:09So the fantasy pro sleeper rankings not doing so hot.
2:12But on the betting pros card primer this week, swept the board on Thursday Night Football.
2:17A perfect 5-4-5. The under, of course, that I was pounding table for since May, essentially.
2:21It did cash despite the fact that the 49ers look like they might cover it on their own because they just kept
2:27scoring so many points against the Rams defense that Miles Garrett was barely even playing in this game.
2:33So that's a bit of a shocker. But under 48 and a half points, Blake Horm over 35 and a half rushing yards.
2:39He looked explosive. Kyron Williams under 13 and a half carries.
2:42Debo Samuel over two and a half catches. And of course, the Mike Evans anytime touchdown on the beautiful fade.
2:48Oh, just absolutely gorgeous chef's kiss. So a good Thursday night.
2:51Let's keep it rolling into the Sunday slate. Yeah, I mean, let's take those good vibes into this show.
2:57This is one of my favorite shows we do every single year, every single week.
3:01I look forward to it and I think it's one of the higher performing betting pro shows we do because we're talking
3:07props and we have a ton of fun with it.
3:10We'll get into ladders. Ericsson and I are super invested in it and we want you guys to be as well.
3:16So please feel free in the comments, drop some of your favorite props.
3:20You guys can talk about art, however you want to do it.
3:23We love to have your interaction and we'll take a look, especially if I can look in the comments and it's a safe space.
3:30I'll look and we can see if there's some fun prop.
3:33You guys make it a not safe space and get out of here.
3:37But if it's fun, we'll take a look. We'll see if you guys hit some killer props.
3:42But another way that you can do that is by downloading the betting pros app, where not only is it going to
3:48give you so much great access to whether you're looking for smart money plays, you want to do some of the stuff
3:54we're talking about here where you can do the prop cheat sheet, the prop analyzer.
3:58You want to get into game picks. You want to have customized information, but you can also track everything.
4:04When you sync your sports books with betting pros app, you can track your progress.
4:08There's so many, so many great tools with it.
4:11Make sure you download the betting pros app. You can check out all the stuff we're talking about and have the entire slate at your fingertips.
4:18So without further ado, let's jump into this. As I mentioned before, we will be having a board where I was going to have a board right now.
4:26We're going to have a board tracking what our bets are.
4:29If we are, you know, rocking or if we're buns, we will have the touchdown marker where we'll be marking.
4:35This is the change this year, the correct touchdown calls.
4:38But we are also going to track the ROI on it just because, you know, Erickson might drop us a 12 to
4:441 tight end and he deserves extra credit for that.
4:47So we'll be tracking those as well, trying to keep ourselves honest and, you know, whatever depression or excitement that's going to lead to.
4:54But we'll be tracking the board. We'll have that for you here.
4:57But let's jump into this. It's time for the top 10 prop bets.
5:01And let's jump into number one with you, Mr.
5:03Andrew Erickson. Why don't you kick us off? I'm going with Jonathan Taylor over 76 and a half rushing yards at home against the Baltimore Ravens.
5:11It's weird. Usually when I do a lot of these player props, it's usually not the most marquee guys that I gravitate towards.
5:17I'm always looking for these scrubby players with these really low under over or totals that I'm trying to.
5:23OK, he can just surpass this type of number.
5:25Usually I stay away from some of these bigger numbers.
5:28Yeah, Rasheed Shahid, Dejon Stribling. Yeah, Rasheed Shahid. But I just, you know, for week one, I'm just going to start your studs, man.
5:35So I'm going to Jonathan Taylor here. Jonathan Taylor in his career playing at home in Indianapolis has averaged over 100 rushing yards per game.
5:42So this is where he's at his best. I look at this particular matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defensive front that I
5:48think is going to give up some decent rushing production.
5:51If you look at the Ravens last year, they gave up a lot of stuff on the ground, especially because they were
5:58dealing with a ton of injuries because of Matibuque being hurt.
6:01He is still not even a lock to play in week one because he's coming off that season ending neck injury.
6:07And Clayis Campbell can only do so much as a 40 year old defensive tackle.
6:11That is the interior that's trying to stop arguably one of the best running backs in the NFL.
6:16We saw the Colts last year rely on Jonathan Taylor to start the season and given all the question marks we have
6:22about how's Daniel Jones going to look coming off his Achilles.
6:26What is the state of this wide receiver room with Alec Pierce, Mitch, so much time he and Allen a little bit older.
6:32Josh down dealing with some injuries. I think it's as simple as maybe just give Jonathan Tara 30 touches and just let
6:38him run wild against this beatable Ravens defense. When the Colts faced Jesse Minter's defense last year when he was the defensive
6:45coordinator for the Chargers, Jesse Minter now the Baltimore Ravens head coach.
6:48They scored 38 points against them. That was the most points the Chargers had allowed all season.
6:53Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries for 94 yards and not one, not two, but three touchdowns for JT against the Chargers, Jesse Minter's defense.
7:00So I think that he goes for 100 rushing yards here.
7:03And the fact that his prop is at 76 and a half rushing yards seemed kind of low to me.
7:09Usually JT I'm expecting to be in the 80s, if not higher, especially playing at home.
7:13So I want to take advantage of it. Give me JT.
7:16They're reeling us in. They wanted that they they want us to see those numbers.
7:21And I completely agree with you. Also, if you take a look at like, you know, maybe trying to play it easy
7:27with Daniel Jones, like, are they going to want a lot of script?
7:31Like they're going to want to run the ball as much as possible.
7:34Control the clock, you know, temper the injury stuff early on.
7:37Probably short line passes. I'm not sure this is like the best spot for Alec Pierce.
7:42I like it for Josh Downs and I like this for Jonathan Taylor.
7:46I want to say his reception prop is also something that the cheat sheet likes or the analyzer.
7:51So something we can kind of come back to my first prop of the year.
7:55And it's one kind of been talking about on lots of shows on the tailgate and a bunch of different places that
8:01I am very much into what the Chargers are going to do this year.
8:05I have taken on my inner D bro without shaving my head yet.
8:09And I've fallen in love with Quentin Johnston. And I really think, as I've said just a gajillion times, like I think
8:15Mike McDaniel has this new toy that he's just like, wow, my, you know, he had a toy before.
8:21But you know those toys that like their arms don't move and they're just like a still.
8:26And then all of a sudden you get an action figure and the arms move and then you can adjust the elbows and you can make them do.
8:34That's what he has now in Herbert from Tua.
8:36He had this broken just piece that stuck together and never did anything.
8:40And now he can let this fly. And who's the guy who's the perfect piece for them to let it fly?
8:46It's Quentin Johnston. And I really like this spot.
8:48He's actually hit this marker in two of his last three games with the Chargers.
8:53I think they're going to, like I said, big fly overall.
8:56But also if you're looking from a matchup perspective, I respect what PFF does when you look at some of the matchup stuff.
9:02Cardinals, I mean, obviously we're going to see the defenses go ranked 32 of 32.
9:07It's not the best cornerback matchups in general. So I think the Chargers are going to stomp down on the cards.
9:13I think the Chargers are going to be able to establish a run and a play action.
9:18And I think early on Quentin Johnston is going to be able to get one of those big long ones, those 40 pluses.
9:24So his prop, I said all of that without saying his prop, he's 42.5.
9:28I love the 42.5. If you take a look over on betting pros, this is over projections.
9:33It's not in love with this like I am.
9:35It's not a five star bet or anything like that.
9:38But his projections on betting pros are at 45.
9:41And I think there's a few other spots where projections are in favor of that.
9:45If you can find the line even a little bit lower in the 39s, that was a really good spot.
9:51But 42.5, I'm still with it because I think Quentin Johnston could do this in one shot.
9:56So I am heavy in the streets on him.
9:58That one is sitting at, you know, like a standard, like one minus 114.
10:02Speaking of the cheat sheet, as mentioned before, you can find the best NFL prop bets with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
10:09If you don't want to go in and dig and do all that type of stuff, they are going to show you
10:15with a lot of analysis as well. Some of the best plays that is backed by so much great information and analysis.
10:21You can quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily projections to cover the props offering the most value.
10:27Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros dot com slash props.
10:32That's betting pros dot com slash props. Don't let me try to sell you on it.
10:36Go check it out for yourself and you decide.
10:39Highly suggest it. Number two in the props sheets.
10:41Obviously, this is going to be three and four, but this is our second favorite props.
10:46Erickson, are you going to go with another over?
10:48Has the undertaker not jumped into, you know, and taken over you?
10:52You're Jekyll and Hyde. You're Jekyll and under taking the unders on the game totals this week, but not on all these player props because.
10:59Especially when we're talking about the Lions and Saints playing at Ford Field, the course field of the NFL.
11:04Not every under is going to hit this week because the Lions are having a home game and there's going to be points scored galore.
11:12John Johnson tied in for the New Orleans Saints is going to go over 42 and a half receiving yards playing at Detroit.
11:18He is the clear cut number two receiver on the Saints offense without Jordan Tyson in the lineup.
11:23Chris Alave is the number one, but I think that John Johnson just kind of being.
11:28Heavily underrated. This player last year was fifth and catches and third and receiving yards among all tight ends every single one.
11:34And he was a complete afterthought in fantasy drafts until Jordan Tyson got injured.
11:38I think that this is a spot where Tyler shock if he's going to be dropping back to throw 40 or 45
11:44times while the Lions are putting up a 30 burger on the Saints defense.
11:48We know Kellen Moore likes to play fast in dome settings.
11:52They're going to run so many plays. There's going to be so many pass attempts that I think there's an easy number for Johnson to go over.
11:59For me, you look at he went over this number in five of his last eight games played and we saw him
12:05have a much bigger role in terms of a target share when the team moved on from Rashid Jaheed when he was
12:12the clear cut number two, which is what I'm expecting in this particular matchup.
12:16So given the injuries to all of the Lions secondary pieces, they're still missing their two stud safeties.
12:21Kirby Joseph, Brian branch, those guys are on the pup.
12:24They're not going to play and they're deploying some of the oldest cornerbacks in the NFL rockets and DJ Reed.
12:29I just think this is a great spot for John Johnson to continue his chemistry with Tyler shock again.
12:35And guys remember they played Oregon together however many years ago that was.
12:39So they got the chemistry. John Johnson have faith in him this week.
12:42All right. This has been you talk about just kind of locking into our dudes.
12:47I'm going to lock into one of the dudes that you and I have been steadfast on.
12:51I think we were doing what was it? We were doing our show the extra point, which is a kind of a
12:58podcast exclusive that we also do a discord. And someone was asking us a Parker Washington question and they were just like,
13:04by the way, you two are so much higher than ECR.
13:07And we're like, yeah, because we love the matchup.
13:10And I think Debro has done a really great breakdown.
13:13Make sure to check out the primer in that Parker Washington is set up for a really good matchup, specifically if he's
13:19going to have Miles Harden on him. PFF Graves Miles Harden, who's covering out of the slot 106 out of 109 in cornerbacks.
13:25And obviously that's where Parker Washington is going to be.
13:28They're going to lock down the outside. That's why we don't like Brian Thomas.
13:32And this is a spot for Parker Washington to dominate to dominate.
13:36So what is the bet here? Well, check this out.
13:38We can get plus money on Parker Washington at five catches over 4.5 with a line of around plus 118.
13:44That's a consensus line you saw on betting pros.
13:47And this is a four star rated bet, obviously not a five, but a four star rated bet on the betting pros app.
13:53So there's some market EV percentage pluses. There's a projection EV plus on this.
13:57I'm I'm all for this because, you know, you and I have been pretty locked in that we think Parker Washington is going to be the dominant player.
14:05The matchup says that the slot corner coverage. I mean, obviously they can make some adjustments, but Harden is the slot cover guy.
14:12Parker Washington should be eaten in this one. And they're going to sling the ball a little bit.
14:17So you're getting plus money on five catches to a player that we think is a top 24 fantasy wide receiver.
14:23And if he's really going to dominate, this should be an easy number.
14:27And though the Browns defense carries a little bit more juice, it's not, you know, obviously Garrett is back.
14:32And as mentioned, there is a hole at the cornerback spot and it is literally where he plays.
14:37So 4.5 receptions over at plus money for Parker Washington.
14:40That is my second and one of my favorites on this card.
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15:49Yo, I was scrolling through the Sprite living track list the other day and immediately started arguing with myself.
15:54Arguing with yourself? I'm serious. It was wild because records like California Love, Still Not A Player, back then those aren't just songs.
16:01Nah, those are moments, memories, snapshots of where hip hop was and where it's going.
16:05Exactly. And that's what Sprite gets. They spent over 40 years celebrating artists who really defined the culture.
16:10And now they flipping it, letting the fans be part of the conversation.
16:14Which is where it gets interesting because the real debate is why.
16:18Like why did that song matter? Why did that line hit?
16:21Why did it change hip hop forever? I can't promise you we got the answers.
16:25But you're definitely going to have a good time figuring it out.
16:28Go check out full Sprite living track list. And break down the stories behind your favorite bars.
16:33At livingtracklist.genius.com This is the Sprite living track list.
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17:01So get a great deal today and great value tomorrow.
17:04Shop toyota.com for more. Toyota, let's go places. Props three.
17:06So what about four and five? Four and five for us.
17:10But our third on the list is we are each going to be giving you five.
17:14And we are going to stick with some overs.
17:17So we're going to jump back into you. This is the most Erickson of Erickson dudes all season long.
17:22I would have been disappointed in you. There's a long-standing player that is ours.
17:26Our mascot of the show is who? Don't say this guy.
17:29You know who the mascot is. Jalen Waddle. Jalen Waddle.
17:32Thank you. It wasn't rhetorical. I wanted you to say it.
17:35Jalen Waddle is the mascot. And Jalen Waddle leaves this team to, I think, what is like your mascot for tight end drafting this year.
17:42So you've got a tight end in the prop market that you really like.
17:46Greg Dulcich. Tight end for the Miami Dolphins. Potentially the last man standing of the pass catchers.
17:51Over 24 and a half receiving yards. A very low number because we're not exactly sure how the targets, the pecking order
17:57is going to shake out in this Dolphins receiver room.
18:00They're going to be starting two rookie wide receivers between Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, along with Malik Washington.
18:06That's probably going to be the starting three set.
18:08Greg Dulcich is the most accomplished out of all those guys, considering two of them are rookies.
18:13And I've never played in the NFL. So he went over this number his last five games played with the Miami Dolphins last season.
18:20Remember, Bobby Slovic, the new offensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins.
18:23He was with the team last year. So he saw Greg Dulcich be productive when they featured him a little bit more in the passing game.
18:30He also went over 21 and a half receiving yards and all but one of his last nine games played.
18:36So he's been consistently hitting around this number. And just given the fact that there are no dominant target earners in this
18:42Miami Dolphins offense, I think this is a good opportunity for him to step up, create some yards after the catch in
18:49a game that I know that losing Brock Bowers definitely pour some cold water on Fitz's take that this game would go over 15 and a half points.
18:57But I still think that just based on how bad both defenses are, this could be one of those like gross vomit
19:03stack type of games where it actually is kind of fun because no money defense can stop anybody on offense, even if it's Kirk Cousins.
19:10So I like Dulcich to go over this number, specifically looking at the matchup, looking at the Raiders linebackers in safety room.
19:16Isaiah Polamalu, PFF's fourth worst graded coverage safety last season.
19:19He's going to be starting Jeremy Chin allowed the eighth highest pass rating when targeted last season for the Raiders and Quay
19:26Walker, their new acquisition at linebacker, allowed the fifth most yards as a coverage linebacker in his last season with the Green Bay Packers.
19:32Jeff Halfley is from Green Bay. He knows how to attack a guy like Quay Walker.
19:37I think he's going to do that with somebody like Greg Dulcich.
19:40You're going to see the hair flowing as Dulcich is running down Allegiant Stadium to yeah, it's gonna be a lot of fun.
19:47Cashin, by the way, on betting pros, this is a four star bet.
19:51So, you know, anytime you can try to track and get that four or five star, there's a lot, a lot of
19:57backing EV plus on this line might move a little bit as well.
20:01But it has moved. It has moved. It was at like 16 when it first opened up.
20:05It's at 26 right now. The consensus line on betting pros is we're recording this and you got it at 24.
20:11So yeah, I a couple weeks ago. I got it like 16 and a half.
20:16Okay. I got to say I'm a Chris Bell guy and I don't see a lot of Chris Bell stuff out there.
20:22So that's going to be one of those late ones I'm in.
20:25But I'm totally down with this. And you know, let's see if there's actually points being scored.
20:30It would be tough to watch this one. Like, thank God the red zone is built for games like this.
20:36And then the Jets and Titans, because that's the only way that they're getting any numbers.
20:41All right. My third one. This is one I put on the fantasy side.
20:45I did kind of a start and sit short.
20:47I talked about this guy, but I'm pretty pro Rico Dowdle.
20:50And I think this is one of the bigger projection versus line numbers that we have out here.
20:55I'm betting pros is a four star bet. And I'm looking at the rushing yards and I'm going over 42.5 on Rico.
21:02Doudle's over that line. 42.5 is the consensus. Maybe there's even some others flowing down there a little bit lower, but the
21:08projections have got them at 52 our fantasy pros projection.
21:11So there's a nice cushion that's sitting out there.
21:13Also, if you're looking defensively, uh, the defensively, defensive line, if you're again, looking at kind of coverages, they're a bottom 10
21:20defense, not even probably countering just all of the issues with injuries and missed players.
21:24Like I don't think on paper, it shows like the problem that this defense really might end up being, but defensive line rating is bad.
21:31Like I said, bottom, bottom 10 ish, bottom 10, 12 in the league.
21:35And I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to try to play the ball on the ground as much as they possibly can.
21:41And they got a new toy in Rico Dowdle.
21:44Jalen Warren's going to get his, but I feel relatively confident.
21:47You're going to see a heavy dose of Dowdle.
21:50By the way, if you look at the rushing attempt number, it's a kind of heavy juiced at 11 and a half.
21:56So if they're projecting that we're going to go over 12 here, 12 to 13, I just got to get 42 from Rico Dowdle.
22:03He is going to run on these Falcons. So this is, again, this is one of my favorite ones.
22:08It's kind of a lower number. Uh, this actually, well, Oh, you know what?
22:12I think, I think I actually, uh, this actually moved.
22:15It was a five star bet. It was one of the top ones at one point.
22:19I think it might've changed, but it was the number two in running back EV on the betting pros cheat sheet.
22:25If you go and check that out, still pretty high up in the streets.
22:29They're still a five, uh, four star, but it just moved down a little tiny bit, but I love me some Rico Dowdle.
22:36Uh, number four, four on the list here. Will the undertaker rise?
22:39Yes, he will. Jalen hurts is going to finish under 29 and a half passing attempts.
22:44This is one. This is a market that I've been pretty good on using the prop bet cheat sheet, the unders on
22:50passing attempts, the unders on rushing attempts. I feel like this is a good sweet spot for the profit cheat sheet, specifically
22:57with the ones that I look at hurts in this matchup against the Washington commanders.
23:01I don't think that the commanders have much of a chance in this particular game.
23:05I think that the Eagles defense is going to swarm and overwhelm Jane Daniels in this bad offensive line.
23:11They're playing at home. Eagles home games tend to lean towards the under and given that it is a new offense for Jalen hurts with Sean Mannion.
23:18Again, Sean may it's coming from the green Bay Packers coaching tree where what's the biggest complaint we have with these green
23:25Bay coaching staff is let your love cook, man.
23:27No, it's like we got to run the ball.
23:30We got to run the ball. I think that's what you're going to see in this game.
23:34It's going to be a lot of Saquon Barkley.
23:37He's healthy and ready to go. The offensive line is healthy and ready to go.
23:41And I think it's interesting when you look at the game splits, which you can do on betting pros.
23:47If you take Lane Johnson, make sure that he's in the lineup.
23:50Hertz has gone under 29 and a half passing temps in seven of his last 10 starts when Lane Johnson is healthy
23:56because they like to run the football when they have their stud right tackle in there.
24:01So I think in this particular match, again, this is a five star bet of the prop bet cheat sheet based on the projected game script.
24:08Unless the commander do something really crazy and force the Eagles to be pass heavy.
24:13I just don't think that's going to be the case here.
24:16I think it's going to be run heavy approach.
24:18So the projections also agree. They have Hertz for 27 pass attempts.
24:22So I'm taking the under. Did you happen to use the with or without tool on fantasy pros when you did that?
24:28Was that part of your process that you just said?
24:31So I didn't use the with or without you tool on fantasy pros.
24:35I use the betting pros one, which is similar in a couple of different ways, but specifically to because I was looking at like fantasy points.
24:42I was looking at attempts and I was able to to pull that there.
24:46But I'm sure that's also accessible on the fantasy pros tool as well.
24:50Well, and I have a little reason. I also am talking about that because the next one I'm going to go, I'm going to go with another over.
24:58Remember, is it the over the undertaker? And is it the over here is I'm going to go with Michael Mayer and
25:04I'm going to go with his receiving yards over thirty nine point five.
25:08Obviously, there's no Brock Bowers here. Juice is kind of normal, but specifically this tool we have, which if I don't remember
25:14what the short link is, but if you type in like with or without splits fantasy pros with or without split that tool instantly come up.
25:21And I did as the news came down a Michael Mayer without Brock Bowers.
25:25And when you know it take away fantasy points for a second, he averages when Bowers is not in the lineup and
25:32this isn't, you know, even to this new offense around six targets and averages around forty nine yards.
25:37It's like four point something catches and forty nine yards.
25:40Well, guess what? His receiving total in this game is thirty nine point five.
25:44So I think this is a good spot where they got no receivers.
25:47I mean, I don't mind Trey Tucker in this, but this is not a good defense from the Dolphins whatsoever.
25:53Buns, as you would say, there's not a whole lot of offensive weapons, especially of Aston Gentius out there.
25:59And Michael Mayer has proven to be a really solid tight end so much so that a lot of fantasy people's consensus
26:05is a top ten tight end this week. So I can also present to you the tool without Brock Bowers.
26:10He smashes this line. So regardless of where, you know, projections are on, obviously like the betting pros projection isn't in there.
26:17But guess what? It actually likes the over as a five star bet this week for Michael Mayer over receiving yards.
26:23So that's one that I am going to be stabbing here.
26:26Thirty nine point five over Michael Mayer on the receiving yards for my fourth prop bet.
26:30And that is going to take us to our final one here.
26:34And you are going to jump into the tight end market.
26:37And I just as a tease have my first under of the year as well.
26:41So why don't you kick us off with your final prop?
26:44You got to have an under at least one on the show.
26:48I'm going to go to the show. You got to go to the show.
26:52There's no way any of us are ever going to hit five overs.
26:56I've well, I've I've definitely done five overs on it.
26:58I don't think I hit all of them. Exactly.
27:01I've done it. That's why you got to throw in under just for good measure.
27:05You got to please the prop gods. Jake Ferguson under three and a half receptions.
27:10This is a Sunday night football prop going to New York to take on big blue.
27:14This one's pretty simple where it goes down to the splits when Jake Ferguson has played.
27:19I did use the fantasy pros with or without you tool for this particular one.
27:23When Jake Ferguson has played with CD lamb, George Pickett's and Ryan Flornay in the lineup, he averages under this number and
27:29it's a pretty large sample size of when he has played with those particular players.
27:33So Ferguson is an afterthought. I think when those other guys are helping in the lineup, I also expect that the Dallas
27:40Calvars can be able to run the football pretty effectively against a Dexter Lawrence less Giants defense.
27:45I think Javante Williams is going to have a monster game top five fantasy option this week.
27:49So I think Jake Ferguson just kind of be meh this week.
27:53So under three and a half catches. All right.
27:55My final one, I am going to go to the Monday night game and I will be backed by, you know, heavy
28:02into betting pros here on the cheat sheet this week.
28:05This is a five star bet. And they said the highest EV return.
28:08You can sort by EV here and Xavier worthy under receiving yards was the top play.
28:13It is under 38.5 with a betting pros projection of 31.5.
28:16So absolutely all about this one. And I'm kind of with it.
28:19There's, I think there's a lot of questions around Patrick Mahomes and what the offense looks like.
28:24You're adding back. You've got where she writes. You got Travis Kelsey.
28:28You're adding in Cyrus Allen, who I don't think is not nothing.
28:31And you got Ken Walker. And I think you're obviously going to, they're going to see a heavy dose of Ken Walker.
28:37Now the one caveat could be is if Denver starts to put this game away in some capacity and they're throwing a whole lot more.
28:44We know worthy can definitely get to this marker, but I am going to play this under the, I think two of
28:51his last three, he has not been able to go over this.
28:54He's not a feature piece of this offense, at least anymore.
28:57At least I'm going to learn otherwise and, you know, end around so whatnot.
29:01But I like this. I like the five star bet.
29:04So I'm going to play the under 38.5 receiving yards with a nice cushion on the betting pros projection.
29:10And that are our 10, five a piece prop bets for week one.
29:13Now can Xavier where they hit this number or will he hit this?
29:17That is the question to ask. And the answer is no.
29:20So are you with me? Do you like this one?
29:23Yes. Yes. I think with a lot of these boomer bus receivers, it's proven, man, prove that you can go over 38
29:29and a half receiving yards because I know we hold that in the back of our mind of like, he's a deep threat.
29:36Like he's going to come down with the catcher.
29:38Like when I was staring at one of the props I was looking at Xavier, like I'm like, is this guy really going to catch two passes?
29:46Yeah. Were these not going to get me with volume, by the way?
29:50I don't think he's going to kill me with volume.
29:53He's going to kill me with one big. I just, I just stared at the Xavier, like at one and a half
29:59receptions prop probably for like two minutes thinking this guy can't catch a cold man.
30:03Like, so I can't get that one. I was thinking about that.
30:07But it's the bears. Even against the bears defense.
30:09It doesn't matter who he's playing. Just these subpar wide receivers.
30:12Keep it in the runners. Prove, make them prove it to you that they're going to beat you.
30:17So I think that this is a good process play.
30:20Hey, it is week one. It's a lot of proving ground stuff.
30:24We have to reciting kind of like last year things.
30:27We've got to see what these offenses are going to look like.
30:30I mean, hell, I remember talking to Bogman before the Thursday night football game and we share a big league we do with DVR from the athletic.
30:38And it's, I've told you about it. It's like, you got to do a DFS lineup and you got to do picks
30:44and you got to do survivor and all this.
30:47And the picks were in, I had put the Patriots in the Wednesday night game.
30:51He was against me, but I took it. He did not want to take my Niners.
30:55He told me, he's like, the Rams are going to annihilate the Niners.
30:59And I'm like, all right, man. I'm like three and a half of the Niners is the play.
31:04So, you know, I thought the Niners defense would be buns.
31:07And we just have got to, we've got to see these play out.
31:11So in that is sometimes you're going to have to be proven wrong in this.
31:15And I'm using that story to kind of agree with you on the Xavier worthy.
31:20And that takes us to touchdowns. We are going to be making two touchdown calls a piece and a first touchdown.
31:26That's a new added addition, but we want to tell you guys, we've got a really, really great thing for you to check out.
31:32When you were setting in your touchdowns, it's betting pros.com slash touchdown.
31:36That's the touchdown score report. If you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, this is your place.
31:41Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop that odds and projections to help identify the best, anytime, uh, touchdown
31:47bets, head to betting pros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis.
31:51Do it today. And that is going to take us to our two touchdowns.
31:55Our kind of theme that we are going to be going with this year is we're going to have kind of one lock ish type of guy.
32:03I don't want to say lock ish because I got to be honest with you.
32:07The two guys we picked that are under plus one 50 aren't exactly locks.
32:11They're not big names, but essentially it's an under plus 200 and then an over 200 that over 200 might get wild.
32:17In this case, they're both around two and a half to one.
32:21So that's going to be kind of the theme and the vibe of how we do our touchdowns.
32:26So Erickson, your two touchdown calls for week one are who?
32:29Juwan Johnson at plus two 40. I talked about how much I like him in this particular matchup going up against the
32:35Detroit lions with their injured secondary taking the over on his receiving yards.
32:39It's interesting. When you look at the total amount of yards and catches that Juwan Johnson had last year, the reason he
32:45hasn't had as much publicity when it comes to his tight end ranking fancy because he only scored three touchdowns last year.
32:51Like that's kind of what held him from actually cracking the top 12, despite having really strong yardage and reception numbers.
32:57Basically, only Justin Jefferson was worse in terms of scoring touchdowns last year based on the amount of volume that they saw.
33:04You look at the way the Saints offense is constructed.
33:07Travis HN is not a great red zone runner.
33:09Alvin Kamara is an aging asset to this team.
33:12Taysom Hill is no longer part of this team.
33:14So I think there's an actual big red zone opportunity for Juwan Johnson to step up without Jordan Tyson in the lineup.
33:21So I think that he is primed for some positive touchdown regression.
33:24And when you're playing at forward field, that's where you're going to score a lot of touchdowns.
33:29So I think John Johnson's going to score this week and I think he's going to score a lot this season, to be honest.
33:36So he's my number one. And then Rico Dowdle, a player that you like, I think of all your props that you
33:42listed out the Rico Dowdle one that stood out to me the most as an absolute layup at 42 and a half
33:48rushing yards when he is set up so well in a perfect type of game script where they're playing at home against
33:54the Falcons team that Tua got hurt on Thursday.
33:57There's a chance that it's Cooper Rush or Jack Strand out there playing on the road in Pittsburgh.
34:02Mike McCarthy knows Cooper Rush because he coached him in Dallas.
34:05So he knows his weaknesses. And I think that they're not going to overthink it.
34:10And there's going to feed Uncle Rico to his heart's desire.
34:13I don't know if you can pull it up, but did he face the Falcons last year in a bell cow role?
34:19Did we get to see that last year from Rico?
34:22Because obviously he was with the Panthers, but I know that he didn't get unleashed until the second half of the season.
34:28I'll be curious to see how he played in those games.
34:31But regardless, so wait, what do you want? You want when he did he go against the Falcons, the Falcons?
34:37Yeah, because he I do have it up here.
34:40He did. Oh, he did go against the Falcons.
34:42Okay, he was weeks. Yeah, it was week three where he had 10 attempts for only 30 yards.
34:47So that wasn't special. And he did have 19, but it was for only 45 against the Falcons.
34:52So they were kind of underwhelming. But the defense that the Falcons are now putting out there is much worse.
34:58And I would agree much worse. And it would have been super cool, by the way, if it was one of those
35:04like 200 yards, like that would have been such a good correlation.
35:08I just don't remember which games that that happened in.
35:11But we know that once you get Rico going, he is a freight train.
35:15So I think that he is a good bet to score.
35:18I think process wise, I always find it interesting when a running back that I think it's probably the safer bet to
35:24see the majority of red zone attempts for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
35:27I think that's more of Rico Daudo's profile. Not to say that Jalen Warren is never going to score a touchdown, but
35:33I think that's probably where Rico Daudo will get the nod over Jalen Warren.
35:37Steelers, home favorites, starting running back in the red zone at plus money to score a touchdown, right?
35:43Like that shouldn't be. Those types of bets are ones that I think are really good value because if you look at
35:49every other home team favorite, they're starting running back.
35:51It's all minus. It's all in. It's minus Jameer games minus three 70.
35:55Like, like, so I think that this is a good process play with Rico.
35:59All right. I have made a change on one of mine and I'm disgusted with myself because I, the number is actually just so good.
36:06And to think that I can get this at a better number.
36:10I'll be just transparency. I had Quentin Johnston on this list.
36:13I still love it. I still believe in him.
36:15It was plus one 40, but I am making the adjustment because Jamison Williams is plus one 80.
36:20It I'm getting better odds on that. By the way, Jared golf for two touchdowns is like minus 200.
36:26So like we're in the lock to touchdown market.
36:28This is such a good spot for Jamison Williams.
36:31And we know how he plays catch it at his ankles run 50 yards, bam, touchdown score and win.
36:36I just think these are really almost two to one on Jamison Williams in this matchup going up against the saints.
36:42I'm all for it. And then my long shot one is kind of gross with myself.
36:47But Trey Tucker, I mentioned like, yes, I think Michael mayor is going to get volume, but this dolphins defense is bad.
36:53If there is before this injury of Bowers, you had amazingly smart people like Fitz talking about how we might have a
37:00ton of scoring because of these defenses. Well, that one thing isn't going to change everything.
37:04Trey Tucker is still going to be going up against those cornerbacks and he's got big breakaway speed.
37:09And I think he's the guy that is going to single himself out as their main wide receiver.
37:14So points being scored, I'm getting around two and a half to one.
37:18I'm picking Trey Tucker. That's a deep name. Jamison Williams and Trey Tucker on the anytime touchdown for me, Rico Dattle and Juwan Johnson for you.
37:26And then our newest addition to in this out is our first touchdown.
37:29This is Erickson's probably favorite market. I have definitely had some fun because I've hit some big smashes.
37:34Nothing feels better than when you get it, but they're big giant odds.
37:38So you got to be careful with it. We are each going to pick one.
37:42And I will say the primetime games, as you've said a million times, it's the best time.
37:47Best thing to bet a first touchdown is in the primetime games because you're hyper focused.
37:52But because we're doing the entire slate, you're going to get one player.
37:55They got us score first. So which backup tight end is it and how big are the odds?
38:01Well, I don't know if this is a backup tight end.
38:04Yeah, Charlie Kolar plus 2000 to score the first touchdown for the Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals game expecting the Chargers to
38:10score a boatload of points in this particular matchup.
38:13So I think Charlie Kolar is going to see red zone opportunities.
38:16And I think that just based on what we saw during the preseason that he's going to probably play the most snaps
38:22out of the tight ends in that room ahead of David and Joe who ahead of a run a Gadsden and they like him from a blocking perspective.
38:30So yeah, I think that play action. You're going to see him running in the back of the end zone and Charlie
38:37Kolar is going to come down with the first touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals.
38:41So that's my bet here. Arizona was also really bad against tight ends last year.
38:45They're the bottom five unit across the board. Now, Jonathan Gannon is no longer the defensive coordinator there, but the guy that
38:51they promoted to defensive coordinator was with Arizona the last couple of years under Jonathan Gannon.
38:56Michael Ford kind of retained him. So I wouldn't expect them to be a juggernaut against tight ends in any way, shape or form Charlie Kolar that paid.
39:04They liked him a lot and he's an underrated receiver.
39:06So 20 to one, especially two because when I think back to the first time I got into these first touchdown bets, it was Donald Parham Jr.
39:14catching the first touchdown from Justin Herbert. Like that was the first time I was like, this is unhooked.
39:20I had a prime time one. It was one of the two Monday ones and I hit both game ones.
39:25I hit Isaiah likely and I'm forgetting who it was like Keenan Allen.
39:29I think I think it was like Keenan Allen and Isaiah likely I hit it.
39:33And I think I like immediately text you and it was like some absurd.
39:37It was one of those where you're disgusted with yourself.
39:40You're like, why didn't I put $2,000 on this?
39:43I would be rich. I put $2 on this.
39:45I put my mortgage on Eli Raritan first touchdown on Wednesday night football.
39:49You get so excited. Then you're like, oh my God, I put $8 on this.
39:53What an idiot. But it's like the odds. I like yours.
39:56Mine. I've fallen in love with. I gotta be honest with you.
40:00There's two guys in this game. If I could play both of these and you get great odds for it.
40:05If I were going on the Viking side, I think Jordan Addison is really fun.
40:10But my official pick is going to be Matthew Golden and Matthew Golden is at 19 to one.
40:15I mean, just barely under your Kolar one. And you know, Golden steps into like a much bigger spot from a cornerback matchup perspective.
40:22It is a little bit tougher. But if you got Pierre locking down Watson, that's going to leave opportunities.
40:27And you know, Golden can play the bigger route tree and he can go and he can play the deep ball.
40:33So I think Golden is in a really good spot here.
40:36Let Jordan love cook. We see that here. 19 to one first touchdown for Matthew Golden.
40:41So Charlie Kolar Golden for the first touchdowns. Tucker, Jamison Williams, Juwan Johnson, and Rico Dado for the touchdowns.
40:46Who are yours? Drop them in the comments below for your favorite touchdown calls.
40:50Love to see. We got to see some first touchdowns.
40:53We will celebrate you. If you got time stamp it before the games.
40:57If you hit one, Erickson will look in the comments and then we will.
41:01I'm not going to do it. And then we'll pull out if anybody hits it and we'll we'll celebrate them and give
41:07you some kudos and we'll check out how we did next week.
41:11That's going to do it, man. That's it. Week one is here.
41:14Make sure to download the betting pros app. Prop bet cheat sheet is going to be your friend.
41:19Prop bet analyzer for any that you want to check out as far as like the star ratings we've talked about any of the data.
41:26Download the betting pros app. And I really highly suggest you get premium on it.
41:30Go and you know whether it's just syncing up your sports book and making your life easier there or checking out all the great tools.
41:38Like I said, don't let me try to sell you on it.
41:41Go and check it out for yourself. Highly highly suggest you do it and make sure you come back with us here.
41:47We'll be back next week. That is it. That is all that we did.
41:51You have another thing you want to finger one last thing.
41:54One last thing. One last thing to send the people off on.
41:58Remember how much money would have made if you bet on Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown every single week.
42:04Yeah. Okay. So this is the famous rollover idea where if Christian McCaffrey, what was it like 12 straight weeks, you'd be like a millionaire if you bet.
42:12And then you took your money and you rolled it over and you did it again.
42:16Okay. So what's, what's the theme here? I want to do that with Jameer Gibbs this year.
42:21I think that's the play. I think that without Dave Montgomery, the fact they have the easy schedule in the NFL, Jameer
42:27Gibbs is going to be having a second home in the end zone this season.
42:32How many weeks are you going to do this?
42:34What do you want to make a commitment? As long as it takes.
42:38Well, okay. You just score 17 straight. Like, dude, I honestly, I would not surprise me if he scores 30 touchdowns.
42:44You have to cash out at 10. If he gets to 10, you got to cash out 10 weeks in a row.
42:50Yeah, I can. I might do that with Mike Evans, by the way, because Mike Evans is on his way.
42:56So just, he's way scarier with that. Cause you know, he's going to miss some games in his hamstring.
43:01Unfortunately. All right. All right. So, okay. We're going to do that.
43:05Let's have a official ticker. If we can get people in here, bet on Gibbs.
43:09We'll tell you will do. We'll have production this, by the way, this segment might die next week if he doesn't score
43:15this weekend, but we'll have the Jameer Gibbs rollover.
43:18Maybe like right here. There'll be like a little Jameer Gibbs, uh, a piggy bank.
43:22Every time the money goes a piggy bank with Jameer Gibbs, his face on it.
43:26Like as long as that's like, I think that is the play.
43:30All right. Well, we'll let the production figure it out.
43:33We'll play the rollover. Let's see what that looks like.
43:35There's a fun way to end it. Have some fun with us this year.
43:39We want to make some money. We also want to have some fun with it.
43:44And hopefully you guys are getting some stuff out of it.
43:47So make sure you're subscribed to betting pros. Make sure you guys are here next week.
43:51And, uh, we will talk to you with all of the early lines and everything else right here on betting pros for Andrew Erickson.
43:58I'm Chris Welsh. Good luck going some money. We'll talk to you next time.
44:02Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by
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