0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Icon and yeah, new artists carrying the torch right now, present day.
0:05But it ain't just songs though, it's the stories behind them.
0:09The lyrics, the moments, what those records meant when they hit.
0:12Yo, go check out the full Sprite Living Tracklist and get into the stories behind your favorite bars, I like that.
0:18At livingtracklist.genius.com This is the Sprite Living Tracklist. Obey your thirst.
0:21Welcome into Betting Pros. This is the Week 1 Prop Show.
0:24I'm Chris Welsh, that is Andrew Erickson. We are back for, I believe, us together is our third straight year.
0:30And we are going to be going through our top 10 favorite prop bets for Week 1.
0:35And then we're not going to even be done there.
0:37We've got a little bit more. We're going to get back into the touchdown streets.
0:42We're going to be tracking them again this year.
0:44Little extra wrinkle on the touchdowns. And because Andrew Erickson at, and if Andrew Erickson asks you, you make it happen.
0:50First touchdowns. We are going to be putting a first, our favorite first touchdown for the week at the bottom of the list.
0:57So if you guys want to play a guessing game, here's where it is.
1:01Every single week, guess what second tight end on a team will be Erickson's big play.
1:05And you know he's going to hit one or two and it's going to be big money.
1:10That's what we got in store for you here on the Betting Pros Prop Show.
1:14I'm super stoked to be back with you, Erickson.
1:17I'm excited to dig into all these. I will say, not feeling so great after I felt so good on Wednesday Night Football about Rashid Shaheed.
1:24Thursday Night Football, I felt so good about Dijon Stribbling.
1:27None of those are worked out. So I'm a little bit timid about the props we're going to release today.
1:33But we are coming right off of a Wednesday and a Thursday night game where both of our teams played.
1:39So I'm glad to be back in the streets with you, brother.
1:42Yeah, I mean, there's so much NFL action happening right now.
1:45My mind can go in so many different ways.
1:48It's actually Friday here while we're recording. So I am on Australia time.
1:52You are still in the depths of September 10th on Thursday.
1:55So it must be nice. But we are here on Friday and I'm just reflecting on all the stuff that's happened.
2:01My two sleeper picks have totally bombed in back to back weeks with Rashid Shaheed bomb.
2:05Stribbling's already injured, so he's probably not going to be a sleeper this year.
2:09So the fantasy pro sleeper rankings not doing so hot.
2:12But on the betting pros card primer this week, swept the board on Thursday Night Football.
2:17A perfect 5-4-5. The under, of course, that I was pounding table for since May, essentially.
2:21It did cash despite the fact that the 49ers look like they might cover it on their own because they just kept
2:27scoring so many points against the Rams defense that Miles Garrett was barely even playing in this game.
2:33So that's a bit of a shocker. But under 48 and a half points, Blake Horm over 35 and a half rushing yards.
2:39He looked explosive. Kyron Williams under 13 and a half carries.
2:42Debo Samuel over two and a half catches. And of course, the Mike Evans anytime touchdown on the beautiful fade.
2:48Oh, just absolutely gorgeous chef's kiss. So a good Thursday night.
2:51Let's keep it rolling into the Sunday slate. Yeah, I mean, let's take those good vibes into this show.
2:57This is one of my favorite shows we do every single year, every single week.
3:01I look forward to it and I think it's one of the higher performing betting pro shows we do because we're talking
3:07props and we have a ton of fun with it.
3:10We'll get into ladders. Ericsson and I are super invested in it and we want you guys to be as well.
3:16So please feel free in the comments, drop some of your favorite props.
3:20You guys can talk about art, however you want to do it.
3:23We love to have your interaction and we'll take a look, especially if I can look in the comments and it's a safe space.
3:30I'll look and we can see if there's some fun prop.
3:33You guys make it a not safe space and get out of here.
3:37But if it's fun, we'll take a look. We'll see if you guys hit some killer props.
3:42But another way that you can do that is by downloading the betting pros app, where not only is it going to
3:48give you so much great access to whether you're looking for smart money plays, you want to do some of the stuff
3:54we're talking about here where you can do the prop cheat sheet, the prop analyzer.
3:58You want to get into game picks. You want to have customized information, but you can also track everything.
4:04When you sync your sports books with betting pros app, you can track your progress.
4:08There's so many, so many great tools with it.
4:11Make sure you download the betting pros app. You can check out all the stuff we're talking about and have the entire slate at your fingertips.
4:18So without further ado, let's jump into this. As I mentioned before, we will be having a board where I was going to have a board right now.
4:26We're going to have a board tracking what our bets are.
4:29If we are, you know, rocking or if we're buns, we will have the touchdown marker where we'll be marking.
4:35This is the change this year, the correct touchdown calls.
4:38But we are also going to track the ROI on it just because, you know, Erickson might drop us a 12 to
4:441 tight end and he deserves extra credit for that.
4:47So we'll be tracking those as well, trying to keep ourselves honest and, you know, whatever depression or excitement that's going to lead to.
4:54But we'll be tracking the board. We'll have that for you here.
4:57But let's jump into this. It's time for the top 10 prop bets.
5:01And let's jump into number one with you, Mr.
5:03Andrew Erickson. Why don't you kick us off? I'm going with Jonathan Taylor over 76 and a half rushing yards at home against the Baltimore Ravens.
5:11It's weird. Usually when I do a lot of these player props, it's usually not the most marquee guys that I gravitate towards.
5:17I'm always looking for these scrubby players with these really low under over or totals that I'm trying to.
5:23OK, he can just surpass this type of number.
5:25Usually I stay away from some of these bigger numbers.
5:28Yeah, Rasheed Shahid, Dejon Stribling. Yeah, Rasheed Shahid. But I just, you know, for week one, I'm just going to start your studs, man.
5:35So I'm going to Jonathan Taylor here. Jonathan Taylor in his career playing at home in Indianapolis has averaged over 100 rushing yards per game.
5:42So this is where he's at his best. I look at this particular matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defensive front that I
5:48think is going to give up some decent rushing production.
5:51If you look at the Ravens last year, they gave up a lot of stuff on the ground, especially because they were
5:58dealing with a ton of injuries because of Matibuque being hurt.
6:01He is still not even a lock to play in week one because he's coming off that season ending neck injury.
6:07And Clayis Campbell can only do so much as a 40 year old defensive tackle.
6:11That is the interior that's trying to stop arguably one of the best running backs in the NFL.
6:16We saw the Colts last year rely on Jonathan Taylor to start the season and given all the question marks we have
6:22about how's Daniel Jones going to look coming off his Achilles.
6:26What is the state of this wide receiver room with Alec Pierce, Mitch, so much time he and Allen a little bit older.
6:32Josh down dealing with some injuries. I think it's as simple as maybe just give Jonathan Tara 30 touches and just let
6:38him run wild against this beatable Ravens defense. When the Colts faced Jesse Minter's defense last year when he was the defensive
6:45coordinator for the Chargers, Jesse Minter now the Baltimore Ravens head coach.
6:48They scored 38 points against them. That was the most points the Chargers had allowed all season.
6:53Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries for 94 yards and not one, not two, but three touchdowns for JT against the Chargers, Jesse Minter's defense.
7:00So I think that he goes for 100 rushing yards here.
7:03And the fact that his prop is at 76 and a half rushing yards seemed kind of low to me.
7:09Usually JT I'm expecting to be in the 80s, if not higher, especially playing at home.
7:13So I want to take advantage of it. Give me JT.
7:16They're reeling us in. They wanted that they they want us to see those numbers.
7:21And I completely agree with you. Also, if you take a look at like, you know, maybe trying to play it easy
7:27with Daniel Jones, like, are they going to want a lot of script?
7:31Like they're going to want to run the ball as much as possible.
7:34Control the clock, you know, temper the injury stuff early on.
7:37Probably short line passes. I'm not sure this is like the best spot for Alec Pierce.
7:42I like it for Josh Downs and I like this for Jonathan Taylor.
7:46I want to say his reception prop is also something that the cheat sheet likes or the analyzer.
7:51So something we can kind of come back to my first prop of the year.
7:55And it's one kind of been talking about on lots of shows on the tailgate and a bunch of different places that
8:01I am very much into what the Chargers are going to do this year.
8:05I have taken on my inner D bro without shaving my head yet.
8:09And I've fallen in love with Quentin Johnston. And I really think, as I've said just a gajillion times, like I think
8:15Mike McDaniel has this new toy that he's just like, wow, my, you know, he had a toy before.
8:21But you know those toys that like their arms don't move and they're just like a still.
8:26And then all of a sudden you get an action figure and the arms move and then you can adjust the elbows and you can make them do.
8:34That's what he has now in Herbert from Tua.
8:36He had this broken just piece that stuck together and never did anything.
8:40And now he can let this fly. And who's the guy who's the perfect piece for them to let it fly?
8:46It's Quentin Johnston. And I really like this spot.
8:48He's actually hit this marker in two of his last three games with the Chargers.
8:53I think they're going to, like I said, big fly overall.
8:56But also if you're looking from a matchup perspective, I respect what PFF does when you look at some of the matchup stuff.
9:02Cardinals, I mean, obviously we're going to see the defenses go ranked 32 of 32.
9:07It's not the best cornerback matchups in general. So I think the Chargers are going to stomp down on the cards.
9:13I think the Chargers are going to be able to establish a run and a play action.
9:18And I think early on Quentin Johnston is going to be able to get one of those big long ones, those 40 pluses.
9:24So his prop, I said all of that without saying his prop, he's 42.5.
9:28I love the 42.5. If you take a look over on betting pros, this is over projections.
9:33It's not in love with this like I am.
9:35It's not a five star bet or anything like that.
9:38But his projections on betting pros are at 45.
9:41And I think there's a few other spots where projections are in favor of that.
9:45If you can find the line even a little bit lower in the 39s, that was a really good spot.
9:51But 42.5, I'm still with it because I think Quentin Johnston could do this in one shot.
9:56So I am heavy in the streets on him.
9:58That one is sitting at, you know, like a standard, like one minus 114.
10:02Speaking of the cheat sheet, as mentioned before, you can find the best NFL prop bets with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
10:09If you don't want to go in and dig and do all that type of stuff, they are going to show you
10:15with a lot of analysis as well. Some of the best plays that is backed by so much great information and analysis.
10:21You can quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily projections to cover the props offering the most value.
10:27Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros dot com slash props.
10:32That's betting pros dot com slash props. Don't let me try to sell you on it.
10:36Go check it out for yourself and you decide.
10:39Highly suggest it. Number two in the props sheets.
10:41Obviously, this is going to be three and four, but this is our second favorite props.
10:46Erickson, are you going to go with another over?
10:48Has the undertaker not jumped into, you know, and taken over you?
10:52You're Jekyll and Hyde. You're Jekyll and under taking the unders on the game totals this week, but not on all these player props because.
10:59Especially when we're talking about the Lions and Saints playing at Ford Field, the course field of the NFL.
11:04Not every under is going to hit this week because the Lions are having a home game and there's going to be points scored galore.
11:12John Johnson tied in for the New Orleans Saints is going to go over 42 and a half receiving yards playing at Detroit.
11:18He is the clear cut number two receiver on the Saints offense without Jordan Tyson in the lineup.
11:23Chris Alave is the number one, but I think that John Johnson just kind of being.
11:28Heavily underrated. This player last year was fifth and catches and third and receiving yards among all tight ends every single one.
11:34And he was a complete afterthought in fantasy drafts until Jordan Tyson got injured.
11:38I think that this is a spot where Tyler shock if he's going to be dropping back to throw 40 or 45
11:44times while the Lions are putting up a 30 burger on the Saints defense.
11:48We know Kellen Moore likes to play fast in dome settings.
11:52They're going to run so many plays. There's going to be so many pass attempts that I think there's an easy number for Johnson to go over.
11:59For me, you look at he went over this number in five of his last eight games played and we saw him
12:05have a much bigger role in terms of a target share when the team moved on from Rashid Jaheed when he was
12:12the clear cut number two, which is what I'm expecting in this particular matchup.
12:16So given the injuries to all of the Lions secondary pieces, they're still missing their two stud safeties.
12:21Kirby Joseph, Brian branch, those guys are on the pup.
12:24They're not going to play and they're deploying some of the oldest cornerbacks in the NFL rockets and DJ Reed.
12:29I just think this is a great spot for John Johnson to continue his chemistry with Tyler shock again.
12:35And guys remember they played Oregon together however many years ago that was.
12:39So they got the chemistry. John Johnson have faith in him this week.
12:42All right. This has been you talk about just kind of locking into our dudes.
12:47I'm going to lock into one of the dudes that you and I have been steadfast on.
12:51I think we were doing what was it? We were doing our show the extra point, which is a kind of a
12:58podcast exclusive that we also do a discord. And someone was asking us a Parker Washington question and they were just like,
13:04by the way, you two are so much higher than ECR.
13:07And we're like, yeah, because we love the matchup.
13:10And I think Debro has done a really great breakdown.
13:13Make sure to check out the primer in that Parker Washington is set up for a really good matchup, specifically if he's
13:19going to have Miles Harden on him. PFF Graves Miles Harden, who's covering out of the slot 106 out of 109 in cornerbacks.
13:25And obviously that's where Parker Washington is going to be.
13:28They're going to lock down the outside. That's why we don't like Brian Thomas.
13:32And this is a spot for Parker Washington to dominate to dominate.
13:36So what is the bet here? Well, check this out.
13:38We can get plus money on Parker Washington at five catches over 4.5 with a line of around plus 118.
13:44That's a consensus line you saw on betting pros.
13:47And this is a four star rated bet, obviously not a five, but a four star rated bet on the betting pros app.
13:53So there's some market EV percentage pluses. There's a projection EV plus on this.
13:57I'm I'm all for this because, you know, you and I have been pretty locked in that we think Parker Washington is going to be the dominant player.
14:05The matchup says that the slot corner coverage. I mean, obviously they can make some adjustments, but Harden is the slot cover guy.
14:12Parker Washington should be eaten in this one. And they're going to sling the ball a little bit.
14:17So you're getting plus money on five catches to a player that we think is a top 24 fantasy wide receiver.
14:23And if he's really going to dominate, this should be an easy number.
14:27And though the Browns defense carries a little bit more juice, it's not, you know, obviously Garrett is back.
14:32And as mentioned, there is a hole at the cornerback spot and it is literally where he plays.
14:37So 4.5 receptions over at plus money for Parker Washington.
14:40That is my second and one of my favorites on this card.
14:43We've got three more each that are coming up, but I want to talk to you guys about poly market.
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15:49Yo, I was scrolling through the Sprite living track list the other day and immediately started arguing with myself.
15:54Arguing with yourself? I'm serious. It was wild because records like California Love, Still Not A Player, back then those aren't just songs.
16:01Nah, those are moments, memories, snapshots of where hip hop was and where it's going.
16:05Exactly. And that's what Sprite gets. They spent over 40 years celebrating artists who really defined the culture.
16:10And now they flipping it, letting the fans be part of the conversation.
16:14Which is where it gets interesting because the real debate is why.
16:18Like why did that song matter? Why did that line hit?
16:21Why did it change hip hop forever? I can't promise you we got the answers.
16:25But you're definitely going to have a good time figuring it out.
16:28Go check out full Sprite living track list. And break down the stories behind your favorite bars.
16:33At livingtracklist.genius.com This is the Sprite living track list.
16:36Obey your thirst. Hey, it's Covino and Rich Davis from Covino & Rich.
16:40Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
16:42That's Toyota affordability. And it starts with a great deal on an off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra.
16:47Two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
16:50Combining power for work, tech for adventures, and style in between.
16:53Built on reputation for quality and reliability. Toyota trucks are known for holding their value.
16:57Which can mean big savings when it's time for your next Toyota.
17:01So get a great deal today and great value tomorrow.
17:04Shop toyota.com for more. Toyota, let's go places. Props three.
17:06So what about four and five? Four and five for us.
17:10But our third on the list is we are each going to be giving you five.
17:14And we are going to stick with some overs.
17:17So we're going to jump back into you. This is the most Erickson of Erickson dudes all season long.
17:22I would have been disappointed in you. There's a long-standing player that is ours.
17:26Our mascot of the show is who? Don't say this guy.
17:29You know who the mascot is. Jalen Waddle. Jalen Waddle.
17:32Thank you. It wasn't rhetorical. I wanted you to say it.
17:35Jalen Waddle is the mascot. And Jalen Waddle leaves this team to, I think, what is like your mascot for tight end drafting this year.
17:42So you've got a tight end in the prop market that you really like.
17:46Greg Dulcich. Tight end for the Miami Dolphins. Potentially the last man standing of the pass catchers.
17:51Over 24 and a half receiving yards. A very low number because we're not exactly sure how the targets, the pecking order
17:57is going to shake out in this Dolphins receiver room.
18:00They're going to be starting two rookie wide receivers between Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, along with Malik Washington.
18:06That's probably going to be the starting three set.
18:08Greg Dulcich is the most accomplished out of all those guys, considering two of them are rookies.
18:13And I've never played in the NFL. So he went over this number his last five games played with the Miami Dolphins last season.
18:20Remember, Bobby Slovic, the new offensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins.
18:23He was with the team last year. So he saw Greg Dulcich be productive when they featured him a little bit more in the passing game.
18:30He also went over 21 and a half receiving yards and all but one of his last nine games played.
18:36So he's been consistently hitting around this number. And just given the fact that there are no dominant target earners in this
18:42Miami Dolphins offense, I think this is a good opportunity for him to step up, create some yards after the catch in
18:49a game that I know that losing Brock Bowers definitely pour some cold water on Fitz's take that this game would go over 15 and a half points.
18:57But I still think that just based on how bad both defenses are, this could be one of those like gross vomit
19:03stack type of games where it actually is kind of fun because no money defense can stop anybody on offense, even if it's Kirk Cousins.
19:10So I like Dulcich to go over this number, specifically looking at the matchup, looking at the Raiders linebackers in safety room.
19:16Isaiah Polamalu, PFF's fourth worst graded coverage safety last season.
19:19He's going to be starting Jeremy Chin allowed the eighth highest pass rating when targeted last season for the Raiders and Quay
19:26Walker, their new acquisition at linebacker, allowed the fifth most yards as a coverage linebacker in his last season with the Green Bay Packers.
19:32Jeff Halfley is from Green Bay. He knows how to attack a guy like Quay Walker.
19:37I think he's going to do that with somebody like Greg Dulcich.
19:40You're going to see the hair flowing as Dulcich is running down Allegiant Stadium to yeah, it's gonna be a lot of fun.
19:47Cashin, by the way, on betting pros, this is a four star bet.
19:51So, you know, anytime you can try to track and get that four or five star, there's a lot, a lot of
19:57backing EV plus on this line might move a little bit as well.
20:01But it has moved. It has moved. It was at like 16 when it first opened up.
20:05It's at 26 right now. The consensus line on betting pros is we're recording this and you got it at 24.
20:11So yeah, I a couple weeks ago. I got it like 16 and a half.
20:16Okay. I got to say I'm a Chris Bell guy and I don't see a lot of Chris Bell stuff out there.
20:22So that's going to be one of those late ones I'm in.
20:25But I'm totally down with this. And you know, let's see if there's actually points being scored.
20:30It would be tough to watch this one. Like, thank God the red zone is built for games like this.
20:36And then the Jets and Titans, because that's the only way that they're getting any numbers.
20:41All right. My third one. This is one I put on the fantasy side.
20:45I did kind of a start and sit short.
20:47I talked about this guy, but I'm pretty pro Rico Dowdle.
20:50And I think this is one of the bigger projection versus line numbers that we have out here.
20:55I'm betting pros is a four star bet. And I'm looking at the rushing yards and I'm going over 42.5 on Rico.
21:02Doudle's over that line. 42.5 is the consensus. Maybe there's even some others flowing down there a little bit lower, but the
21:08projections have got them at 52 our fantasy pros projection.
21:11So there's a nice cushion that's sitting out there.
21:13Also, if you're looking defensively, uh, the defensively, defensive line, if you're again, looking at kind of coverages, they're a bottom 10
21:20defense, not even probably countering just all of the issues with injuries and missed players.
21:24Like I don't think on paper, it shows like the problem that this defense really might end up being, but defensive line rating is bad.
21:31Like I said, bottom, bottom 10 ish, bottom 10, 12 in the league.
21:35And I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to try to play the ball on the ground as much as they possibly can.
21:41And they got a new toy in Rico Dowdle.
21:44Jalen Warren's going to get his, but I feel relatively confident.
21:47You're going to see a heavy dose of Dowdle.
21:50By the way, if you look at the rushing attempt number, it's a kind of heavy juiced at 11 and a half.
21:56So if they're projecting that we're going to go over 12 here, 12 to 13, I just got to get 42 from Rico Dowdle.
22:03He is going to run on these Falcons. So this is, again, this is one of my favorite ones.
22:08It's kind of a lower number. Uh, this actually, well, Oh, you know what?
22:12I think, I think I actually, uh, this actually moved.
22:15It was a five star bet. It was one of the top ones at one point.
22:19I think it might've changed, but it was the number two in running back EV on the betting pros cheat sheet.
22:25If you go and check that out, still pretty high up in the streets.
22:29They're still a five, uh, four star, but it just moved down a little tiny bit, but I love me some Rico Dowdle.
22:36Uh, number four, four on the list here. Will the undertaker rise?
22:39Yes, he will. Jalen hurts is going to finish under 29 and a half passing attempts.
22:44This is one. This is a market that I've been pretty good on using the prop bet cheat sheet, the unders on
22:50passing attempts, the unders on rushing attempts. I feel like this is a good sweet spot for the profit cheat sheet, specifically
22:57with the ones that I look at hurts in this matchup against the Washington commanders.
23:01I don't think that the commanders have much of a chance in this particular game.
23:05I think that the Eagles defense is going to swarm and overwhelm Jane Daniels in this bad offensive line.
23:11They're playing at home. Eagles home games tend to lean towards the under and given that it is a new offense for Jalen hurts with Sean Mannion.
23:18Again, Sean may it's coming from the green Bay Packers coaching tree where what's the biggest complaint we have with these green
23:25Bay coaching staff is let your love cook, man.
23:27No, it's like we got to run the ball.
23:30We got to run the ball. I think that's what you're going to see in this game.
23:34It's going to be a lot of Saquon Barkley.
23:37He's healthy and ready to go. The offensive line is healthy and ready to go.
23:41And I think it's interesting when you look at the game splits, which you can do on betting pros.
23:47If you take Lane Johnson, make sure that he's in the lineup.
23:50Hertz has gone under 29 and a half passing temps in seven of his last 10 starts when Lane Johnson is healthy
23:56because they like to run the football when they have their stud right tackle in there.
24:01So I think in this particular match, again, this is a five star bet of the prop bet cheat sheet based on the projected game script.
24:08Unless the commander do something really crazy and force the Eagles to be pass heavy.
24:13I just don't think that's going to be the case here.
24:16I think it's going to be run heavy approach.
24:18So the projections also agree. They have Hertz for 27 pass attempts.
24:22So I'm taking the under. Did you happen to use the with or without tool on fantasy pros when you did that?
24:28Was that part of your process that you just said?
24:31So I didn't use the with or without you tool on fantasy pros.
24:35I use the betting pros one, which is similar in a couple of different ways, but specifically to because I was looking at like fantasy points.
24:42I was looking at attempts and I was able to to pull that there.
24:46But I'm sure that's also accessible on the fantasy pros tool as well.
24:50Well, and I have a little reason. I also am talking about that because the next one I'm going to go, I'm going to go with another over.
24:58Remember, is it the over the undertaker? And is it the over here is I'm going to go with Michael Mayer and
25:04I'm going to go with his receiving yards over thirty nine point five.
25:08Obviously, there's no Brock Bowers here. Juice is kind of normal, but specifically this tool we have, which if I don't remember
25:14what the short link is, but if you type in like with or without splits fantasy pros with or without split that tool instantly come up.
25:21And I did as the news came down a Michael Mayer without Brock Bowers.
25:25And when you know it take away fantasy points for a second, he averages when Bowers is not in the lineup and
25:32this isn't, you know, even to this new offense around six targets and averages around forty nine yards.
25:37It's like four point something catches and forty nine yards.
25:40Well, guess what? His receiving total in this game is thirty nine point five.
25:44So I think this is a good spot where they got no receivers.
25:47I mean, I don't mind Trey Tucker in this, but this is not a good defense from the Dolphins whatsoever.
25:53Buns, as you would say, there's not a whole lot of offensive weapons, especially of Aston Gentius out there.
25:59And Michael Mayer has proven to be a really solid tight end so much so that a lot of fantasy people's consensus
26:05is a top ten tight end this week. So I can also present to you the tool without Brock Bowers.
26:10He smashes this line. So regardless of where, you know, projections are on, obviously like the betting pros projection isn't in there.
26:17But guess what? It actually likes the over as a five star bet this week for Michael Mayer over receiving yards.
26:23So that's one that I am going to be stabbing here.
26:26Thirty nine point five over Michael Mayer on the receiving yards for my fourth prop bet.
26:30And that is going to take us to our final one here.
26:34And you are going to jump into the tight end market.
26:37And I just as a tease have my first under of the year as well.
26:41So why don't you kick us off with your final prop?
26:44You got to have an under at least one on the show.
26:48I'm going to go to the show. You got to go to the show.
26:52There's no way any of us are ever going to hit five overs.
26:56I've well, I've I've definitely done five overs on it.
26:58I don't think I hit all of them. Exactly.
27:01I've done it. That's why you got to throw in under just for good measure.
27:05You got to please the prop gods. Jake Ferguson under three and a half receptions.
27:10This is a Sunday night football prop going to New York to take on big blue.
27:14This one's pretty simple where it goes down to the splits when Jake Ferguson has played.
27:19I did use the fantasy pros with or without you tool for this particular one.
27:23When Jake Ferguson has played with CD lamb, George Pickett's and Ryan Flornay in the lineup, he averages under this number and
27:29it's a pretty large sample size of when he has played with those particular players.
27:33So Ferguson is an afterthought. I think when those other guys are helping in the lineup, I also expect that the Dallas
27:40Calvars can be able to run the football pretty effectively against a Dexter Lawrence less Giants defense.
27:45I think Javante Williams is going to have a monster game top five fantasy option this week.
27:49So I think Jake Ferguson just kind of be meh this week.
27:53So under three and a half catches. All right.
27:55My final one, I am going to go to the Monday night game and I will be backed by, you know, heavy
28:02into betting pros here on the cheat sheet this week.
28:05This is a five star bet. And they said the highest EV return.
28:08You can sort by EV here and Xavier worthy under receiving yards was the top play.
28:13It is under 38.5 with a betting pros projection of 31.5.
28:16So absolutely all about this one. And I'm kind of with it.
28:19There's, I think there's a lot of questions around Patrick Mahomes and what the offense looks like.
28:24You're adding back. You've got where she writes. You got Travis Kelsey.
28:28You're adding in Cyrus Allen, who I don't think is not nothing.
28:31And you got Ken Walker. And I think you're obviously going to, they're going to see a heavy dose of Ken Walker.
28:37Now the one caveat could be is if Denver starts to put this game away in some capacity and they're throwing a whole lot more.
28:44We know worthy can definitely get to this marker, but I am going to play this under the, I think two of
28:51his last three, he has not been able to go over this.
28:54He's not a feature piece of this offense, at least anymore.
28:57At least I'm going to learn otherwise and, you know, end around so whatnot.
29:01But I like this. I like the five star bet.
29:04So I'm going to play the under 38.5 receiving yards with a nice cushion on the betting pros projection.
29:10And that are our 10, five a piece prop bets for week one.
29:13Now can Xavier where they hit this number or will he hit this?
29:17That is the question to ask. And the answer is no.
29:20So are you with me? Do you like this one?
29:23Yes. Yes. I think with a lot of these boomer bus receivers, it's proven, man, prove that you can go over 38
29:29and a half receiving yards because I know we hold that in the back of our mind of like, he's a deep threat.
29:36Like he's going to come down with the catcher.
29:38Like when I was staring at one of the props I was looking at Xavier, like I'm like, is this guy really going to catch two passes?
29:46Yeah. Were these not going to get me with volume, by the way?
29:50I don't think he's going to kill me with volume.
29:53He's going to kill me with one big. I just, I just stared at the Xavier, like at one and a half
29:59receptions prop probably for like two minutes thinking this guy can't catch a cold man.
30:03Like, so I can't get that one. I was thinking about that.
30:07But it's the bears. Even against the bears defense.
30:09It doesn't matter who he's playing. Just these subpar wide receivers.
30:12Keep it in the runners. Prove, make them prove it to you that they're going to beat you.
30:17So I think that this is a good process play.
30:20Hey, it is week one. It's a lot of proving ground stuff.
30:24We have to reciting kind of like last year things.
30:27We've got to see what these offenses are going to look like.
30:30I mean, hell, I remember talking to Bogman before the Thursday night football game and we share a big league we do with DVR from the athletic.
30:38And it's, I've told you about it. It's like, you got to do a DFS lineup and you got to do picks
30:44and you got to do survivor and all this.
30:47And the picks were in, I had put the Patriots in the Wednesday night game.
30:51He was against me, but I took it. He did not want to take my Niners.
30:55He told me, he's like, the Rams are going to annihilate the Niners.
30:59And I'm like, all right, man. I'm like three and a half of the Niners is the play.
31:04So, you know, I thought the Niners defense would be buns.
31:07And we just have got to, we've got to see these play out.
31:11So in that is sometimes you're going to have to be proven wrong in this.
31:15And I'm using that story to kind of agree with you on the Xavier worthy.
31:20And that takes us to touchdowns. We are going to be making two touchdown calls a piece and a first touchdown.
31:26That's a new added addition, but we want to tell you guys, we've got a really, really great thing for you to check out.
31:32When you were setting in your touchdowns, it's betting pros.com slash touchdown.
31:36That's the touchdown score report. If you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, this is your place.
31:41Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop that odds and projections to help identify the best, anytime, uh, touchdown
31:47bets, head to betting pros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis.
31:51Do it today. And that is going to take us to our two touchdowns.
31:55Our kind of theme that we are going to be going with this year is we're going to have kind of one lock ish type of guy.
32:03I don't want to say lock ish because I got to be honest with you.
32:07The two guys we picked that are under plus one 50 aren't exactly locks.
32:11They're not big names, but essentially it's an under plus 200 and then an over 200 that over 200 might get wild.
32:17In this case, they're both around two and a half to one.
32:21So that's going to be kind of the theme and the vibe of how we do our touchdowns.
32:26So Erickson, your two touchdown calls for week one are who?
32:29Juwan Johnson at plus two 40. I talked about how much I like him in this particular matchup going up against the
32:35Detroit lions with their injured secondary taking the over on his receiving yards.
32:39It's interesting. When you look at the total amount of yards and catches that Juwan Johnson had last year, the reason he
32:45hasn't had as much publicity when it comes to his tight end ranking fancy because he only scored three touchdowns last year.
32:51Like that's kind of what held him from actually cracking the top 12, despite having really strong yardage and reception numbers.
32:57Basically, only Justin Jefferson was worse in terms of scoring touchdowns last year based on the amount of volume that they saw.
33:04You look at the way the Saints offense is constructed.
33:07Travis HN is not a great red zone runner.
33:09Alvin Kamara is an aging asset to this team.
33:12Taysom Hill is no longer part of this team.
33:14So I think there's an actual big red zone opportunity for Juwan Johnson to step up without Jordan Tyson in the lineup.
33:21So I think that he is primed for some positive touchdown regression.
33:24And when you're playing at forward field, that's where you're going to score a lot of touchdowns.
33:29So I think John Johnson's going to score this week and I think he's going to score a lot this season, to be honest.
33:36So he's my number one. And then Rico Dowdle, a player that you like, I think of all your props that you
33:42listed out the Rico Dowdle one that stood out to me the most as an absolute layup at 42 and a half
33:48rushing yards when he is set up so well in a perfect type of game script where they're playing at home against
33:54the Falcons team that Tua got hurt on Thursday.
33:57There's a chance that it's Cooper Rush or Jack Strand out there playing on the road in Pittsburgh.
34:02Mike McCarthy knows Cooper Rush because he coached him in Dallas.
34:05So he knows his weaknesses. And I think that they're not going to overthink it.
34:10And there's going to feed Uncle Rico to his heart's desire.
34:13I don't know if you can pull it up, but did he face the Falcons last year in a bell cow role?
34:19Did we get to see that last year from Rico?
34:22Because obviously he was with the Panthers, but I know that he didn't get unleashed until the second half of the season.
34:28I'll be curious to see how he played in those games.
34:31But regardless, so wait, what do you want? You want when he did he go against the Falcons, the Falcons?
34:37Yeah, because he I do have it up here.
34:40He did. Oh, he did go against the Falcons.
34:42Okay, he was weeks. Yeah, it was week three where he had 10 attempts for only 30 yards.
34:47So that wasn't special. And he did have 19, but it was for only 45 against the Falcons.
34:52So they were kind of underwhelming. But the defense that the Falcons are now putting out there is much worse.
34:58And I would agree much worse. And it would have been super cool, by the way, if it was one of those
35:04like 200 yards, like that would have been such a good correlation.
35:08I just don't remember which games that that happened in.
35:11But we know that once you get Rico going, he is a freight train.
35:15So I think that he is a good bet to score.
35:18I think process wise, I always find it interesting when a running back that I think it's probably the safer bet to
35:24see the majority of red zone attempts for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
35:27I think that's more of Rico Daudo's profile. Not to say that Jalen Warren is never going to score a touchdown, but
35:33I think that's probably where Rico Daudo will get the nod over Jalen Warren.
35:37Steelers, home favorites, starting running back in the red zone at plus money to score a touchdown, right?
35:43Like that shouldn't be. Those types of bets are ones that I think are really good value because if you look at
35:49every other home team favorite, they're starting running back.
35:51It's all minus. It's all in. It's minus Jameer games minus three 70.
35:55Like, like, so I think that this is a good process play with Rico.
35:59All right. I have made a change on one of mine and I'm disgusted with myself because I, the number is actually just so good.
36:06And to think that I can get this at a better number.
36:10I'll be just transparency. I had Quentin Johnston on this list.
36:13I still love it. I still believe in him.
36:15It was plus one 40, but I am making the adjustment because Jamison Williams is plus one 80.
36:20It I'm getting better odds on that. By the way, Jared golf for two touchdowns is like minus 200.
36:26So like we're in the lock to touchdown market.
36:28This is such a good spot for Jamison Williams.
36:31And we know how he plays catch it at his ankles run 50 yards, bam, touchdown score and win.
36:36I just think these are really almost two to one on Jamison Williams in this matchup going up against the saints.
36:42I'm all for it. And then my long shot one is kind of gross with myself.
36:47But Trey Tucker, I mentioned like, yes, I think Michael mayor is going to get volume, but this dolphins defense is bad.
36:53If there is before this injury of Bowers, you had amazingly smart people like Fitz talking about how we might have a
37:00ton of scoring because of these defenses. Well, that one thing isn't going to change everything.
37:04Trey Tucker is still going to be going up against those cornerbacks and he's got big breakaway speed.
37:09And I think he's the guy that is going to single himself out as their main wide receiver.
37:14So points being scored, I'm getting around two and a half to one.
37:18I'm picking Trey Tucker. That's a deep name. Jamison Williams and Trey Tucker on the anytime touchdown for me, Rico Dattle and Juwan Johnson for you.
37:26And then our newest addition to in this out is our first touchdown.
37:29This is Erickson's probably favorite market. I have definitely had some fun because I've hit some big smashes.
37:34Nothing feels better than when you get it, but they're big giant odds.
37:38So you got to be careful with it. We are each going to pick one.
37:42And I will say the primetime games, as you've said a million times, it's the best time.
37:47Best thing to bet a first touchdown is in the primetime games because you're hyper focused.
37:52But because we're doing the entire slate, you're going to get one player.
37:55They got us score first. So which backup tight end is it and how big are the odds?
38:01Well, I don't know if this is a backup tight end.
38:04Yeah, Charlie Kolar plus 2000 to score the first touchdown for the Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals game expecting the Chargers to
38:10score a boatload of points in this particular matchup.
38:13So I think Charlie Kolar is going to see red zone opportunities.
38:16And I think that just based on what we saw during the preseason that he's going to probably play the most snaps
38:22out of the tight ends in that room ahead of David and Joe who ahead of a run a Gadsden and they like him from a blocking perspective.
38:30So yeah, I think that play action. You're going to see him running in the back of the end zone and Charlie
38:37Kolar is going to come down with the first touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals.
38:41So that's my bet here. Arizona was also really bad against tight ends last year.
38:45They're the bottom five unit across the board. Now, Jonathan Gannon is no longer the defensive coordinator there, but the guy that
38:51they promoted to defensive coordinator was with Arizona the last couple of years under Jonathan Gannon.
38:56Michael Ford kind of retained him. So I wouldn't expect them to be a juggernaut against tight ends in any way, shape or form Charlie Kolar that paid.
39:04They liked him a lot and he's an underrated receiver.
39:06So 20 to one, especially two because when I think back to the first time I got into these first touchdown bets, it was Donald Parham Jr.
39:14catching the first touchdown from Justin Herbert. Like that was the first time I was like, this is unhooked.
39:20I had a prime time one. It was one of the two Monday ones and I hit both game ones.
39:25I hit Isaiah likely and I'm forgetting who it was like Keenan Allen.
39:29I think I think it was like Keenan Allen and Isaiah likely I hit it.
39:33And I think I like immediately text you and it was like some absurd.
39:37It was one of those where you're disgusted with yourself.
39:40You're like, why didn't I put $2,000 on this?
39:43I would be rich. I put $2 on this.
39:45I put my mortgage on Eli Raritan first touchdown on Wednesday night football.
39:49You get so excited. Then you're like, oh my God, I put $8 on this.
39:53What an idiot. But it's like the odds. I like yours.
39:56Mine. I've fallen in love with. I gotta be honest with you.
40:00There's two guys in this game. If I could play both of these and you get great odds for it.
40:05If I were going on the Viking side, I think Jordan Addison is really fun.
40:10But my official pick is going to be Matthew Golden and Matthew Golden is at 19 to one.
40:15I mean, just barely under your Kolar one. And you know, Golden steps into like a much bigger spot from a cornerback matchup perspective.
40:22It is a little bit tougher. But if you got Pierre locking down Watson, that's going to leave opportunities.
40:27And you know, Golden can play the bigger route tree and he can go and he can play the deep ball.
40:33So I think Golden is in a really good spot here.
40:36Let Jordan love cook. We see that here. 19 to one first touchdown for Matthew Golden.
40:41So Charlie Kolar Golden for the first touchdowns. Tucker, Jamison Williams, Juwan Johnson, and Rico Dado for the touchdowns.
40:46Who are yours? Drop them in the comments below for your favorite touchdown calls.
40:50Love to see. We got to see some first touchdowns.
40:53We will celebrate you. If you got time stamp it before the games.
40:57If you hit one, Erickson will look in the comments and then we will.
41:01I'm not going to do it. And then we'll pull out if anybody hits it and we'll we'll celebrate them and give
41:07you some kudos and we'll check out how we did next week.
41:11That's going to do it, man. That's it. Week one is here.
41:14Make sure to download the betting pros app. Prop bet cheat sheet is going to be your friend.
41:19Prop bet analyzer for any that you want to check out as far as like the star ratings we've talked about any of the data.
41:26Download the betting pros app. And I really highly suggest you get premium on it.
41:30Go and you know whether it's just syncing up your sports book and making your life easier there or checking out all the great tools.
41:38Like I said, don't let me try to sell you on it.
41:41Go and check it out for yourself. Highly highly suggest you do it and make sure you come back with us here.
41:47We'll be back next week. That is it. That is all that we did.
41:51You have another thing you want to finger one last thing.
41:54One last thing. One last thing to send the people off on.
41:58Remember how much money would have made if you bet on Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown every single week.
42:04Yeah. Okay. So this is the famous rollover idea where if Christian McCaffrey, what was it like 12 straight weeks, you'd be like a millionaire if you bet.
42:12And then you took your money and you rolled it over and you did it again.
42:16Okay. So what's, what's the theme here? I want to do that with Jameer Gibbs this year.
42:21I think that's the play. I think that without Dave Montgomery, the fact they have the easy schedule in the NFL, Jameer
42:27Gibbs is going to be having a second home in the end zone this season.
42:32How many weeks are you going to do this?
42:34What do you want to make a commitment? As long as it takes.
42:38Well, okay. You just score 17 straight. Like, dude, I honestly, I would not surprise me if he scores 30 touchdowns.
42:44You have to cash out at 10. If he gets to 10, you got to cash out 10 weeks in a row.
42:50Yeah, I can. I might do that with Mike Evans, by the way, because Mike Evans is on his way.
42:56So just, he's way scarier with that. Cause you know, he's going to miss some games in his hamstring.
43:01Unfortunately. All right. All right. So, okay. We're going to do that.
43:05Let's have a official ticker. If we can get people in here, bet on Gibbs.
43:09We'll tell you will do. We'll have production this, by the way, this segment might die next week if he doesn't score
43:15this weekend, but we'll have the Jameer Gibbs rollover.
43:18Maybe like right here. There'll be like a little Jameer Gibbs, uh, a piggy bank.
43:22Every time the money goes a piggy bank with Jameer Gibbs, his face on it.
43:26Like as long as that's like, I think that is the play.
43:30All right. Well, we'll let the production figure it out.
43:33We'll play the rollover. Let's see what that looks like.
43:35There's a fun way to end it. Have some fun with us this year.
43:39We want to make some money. We also want to have some fun with it.
43:44And hopefully you guys are getting some stuff out of it.
43:47So make sure you're subscribed to betting pros. Make sure you guys are here next week.
43:51And, uh, we will talk to you with all of the early lines and everything else right here on betting pros for Andrew Erickson.
43:58I'm Chris Welsh. Good luck going some money. We'll talk to you next time.
44:02Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by
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