12 POLARIZING Fantasy Football Picks | Experts Draft or Pass on Volatile Players (Ep. 2067)
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54 min
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Jun 25, 2026
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Thu, June 25, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Varieties available in all geographies.
0:04Warning, this product can cause mouth cancer. Erickson today on the program.
0:07We're going to talk about some of the more divisive assets out there in fantasy football.
0:12And of course, we want you to chime in on the YouTube channel.
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0:19Like this video. It's a very easy thing to do and we appreciate it over here.
0:24So gents, let's take a look at some of the polarizing guys out there and let's start with some of the early round picks.
0:31Obviously, Christian McCaffrey a little polarizing between these two guys because Pat hasn't ranked number seven overall.
0:36Erickson all the way at 19. So I feel like I should put on my my wig, but it's not here for fantasy court.
0:44Almost like there's some judgments to be handed out here.
0:47Pat Fitzmaurice, let's talk about why people should feel good about Christian McCaffrey coming off a great season in 2025.
0:53Because scared money don't make money. Ooh, I love it.
0:56Yeah, I mean history says that if Christian McCaffrey stays healthy all season, he's giving us 2,000 yards from scrimmage, double digit
1:03touchdowns, a whole bunch of bonus points. If you're in a PPR half point PPR league.
1:07Yes. CMC does have a pretty extensive injury history.
1:10He just turned 30 and he got a lot of touches last season.
1:14There is an elevated injury risk, but McCaffrey has given us either 16 or 17 games at three of the last four years.
1:21And if he gets hurt and misses some games this year.
1:24Well, I know he's going to smash in almost every game he plays.
1:28So if he even gives us 12 games, we're going to get 12 games of smash.
1:33Um, so I think we just need to get like 12 or 13 games, 14 games out of him to, to have
1:40him be worth that mid first round pick. I mean, Joe, I've been playing this silly little game of fantasy football for
1:47a long time and my first, yeah, my first draft in a season long fantasy football league.
1:52I think it was a month before Nirvana released nevermind.
1:55Oh my goodness. One thing I have learned about drafting over the years, like maximizing upside is more important than minimizing downside.
2:02And that's why I'm willing to draft Christian McCaffrey in the middle of the first round.
2:07Well, I'm sure I remember it was nevermind. 91, 91, 1990, 1990.
2:10I was wrong. No, wait, no, I was right.
2:13The first time September 24th, 1991, two days before my birthday.
2:16So that's, that's pretty fun right there. So I can't, who did you draft?
2:21Do you remember who you drafted in 1991? Do you remember the player?
2:25Yeah, it was Barry. You always remember. You always remember your first ever.
2:28It was Barry Sanders. He was my first drunk pack.
2:32She's just talked about him on the tailgate. I know.
2:35And just like, so we gave it on the tailgate and the new episodes get a drop.
2:40So go check out tailgate. We just talked about players that we'd love to give a Superbowl ring to.
2:46And mine was Barry Sanders. So it's my first Jersey.
2:49Very cool. So there you go. Full circle moment today, Andrew.
2:52Uh, I guess the red light therapy and all the stuff that he was doing in Europe is not enough for you.
2:59I understand the workload. The next year typically is when it shows up, right?
3:03So it's Dicey. He's another player approaching 30 very quickly.
3:06So talk to me about why you're so below consensus.
3:09Cause Pat is right where consensus is seven overall is where CMC is going.
3:13Basically. You are not even a first rounder for CMC.
3:16So let's talk about why you clearly are having no shares of him this year.
3:21Cause history also says that you fade the guy that led the NFL and touches the year before, especially when it's 450.
3:28And especially when it's Christian McCaffrey, who has done this twice already in his NFL career, led the league and touches the following seasons.
3:35He was nowhere near a number three overall finisher.
3:38So for me, if last 13 years, only one running back has finished top five after seeing at least 400 touches the
3:44year before running backs, 27 or older who led the NFL and touches happened six times, zero top five finishes the following year.
3:51So I totally understand the upside case for Christian McCaffrey, but this is a really big sample that I have trusted the process with.
3:59Did it with Saquon last year, did it with CMC two years ago with Josh Jacobs the year before that.
4:05And it's worked out. So this is a process I think works.
4:08And for those reasons, I'm just not going to be drafting Christian McCaffrey this year.
4:13Uh, look, I, I, I feel like I'm somewhere in the middle last year.
4:17I love the best ball version of McCaffrey. Cause I got him right at the turn.
4:22Like that was great. I knew that wasn't going to last by the time we got to September and it did not.
4:29And then once it went past the top 10, I admittedly, I was kind of out and I was wrong.
4:35Uh, so Pat was right. Scared money. Don't make money.
4:38And more lessons from Pat Fitzmaurice from the hood.
4:41We'll be here on the show. So make sure you hang out with us.
4:45By the way, the top three guys in 1991, you had Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, another one of my all time favorites and Emmett Smith there.
4:53Not too shabby Fitzy. Not too shabby back, back in the day.
4:57That was where it was at. All right, let's get to another guy, Chase Brown.
5:01Now Pat's got him at 21. So not necessarily overall.
5:04I mean, so it's all respectful, but not great.
5:07Erickson, you are very aggressive when it comes to Chase Brown.
5:10So let's make the case for Chase Brown here because Chase Brown obviously isn't an offense that can be prolific.
5:16If everybody for once for the love of God would just stay healthy and perform well, you got Burrow, you've got Chase,
5:23you got Higgins, and then you got Chase Brown, who it doesn't look like there's a lot of competition for him in the world.
5:31And this backfield. So let's talk about what that upside is for him.
5:34Now, clearly you are above consensus on Brown. So talk about all the reasons why people should listen to you.
5:41I can't. I mean, what has happened to the real Pat Fitzmaurice where I'm the high man on Chase Brown and he
5:47is below consensus on Chase Brown when he has been pounding the table for the former Illinois workhorse when he is so
5:54teed up to absolutely smash in 2026. Last year, Chase Brown finished as the RB seven points per game from week seven onward.
6:01Overall, he was fifth and expected fantasy points per game.
6:04I think that he's going to see a bell cow type of usage in a Joe Burrow led offense.
6:10He won fantasy football leagues last year. RB three from weeks 13 through 17 over 20 half PPR points per game.
6:16He's averaged nearly 1400 yards in scrimmage back to back seasons.
6:20Final year of his rookie contract. I think the Bengals have all the incentive in the world to run Chase Brown into the ground into this elite offense.
6:28And if Samaj P Ryan is the only guy that's standing in his way, he was productive with P Ryan was operating
6:35as a one B back last year. So consider me unimpressed by P Ryan's body of work.
6:40I think Chase Brown can totally dust him take on an even larger role.
6:44Last year, list of running backs with at least 400 receiving yards and a thousand rushing yards.
6:49CMC, B. John Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Devon HN and Chase Brown.
6:53With everything that went wrong for the Bengals last year, Chase Brown went right.
6:57He was the eighth running back in half PPR last year.
7:00Fitzy, the consensus has Chase Brown at 17 and you got him at 21.
7:05So not only you're not a fan anymore, it feels like you are.
7:09You're out. What what's become of you year over year, Fitzy?
7:12Man, I don't want to be the Chase Brown fader.
7:15I do like to think I was an early Chase Brown adopter in the summer of 2024 before he came became a thing.
7:22I had him in multiple leagues that year. So from week six of 2024, when he made his first start for the
7:29Bengals through the end of the regular season that year, he was RB eight and a half point PPR fantasy points per game last year.
7:36RB eight and half point PPR, maybe 21 overall is a smidge low.
7:40I am up. Move him up. I do think your top 10 ranking for him.
7:45Erickson is a little bit ambitious. I don't see him as a first round value when he averaged 13.6 carries a game
7:52last season, even though the Bengals seemingly have no one else in that backfield with some AJP Ryan.
7:57And I realize he probably gets more carries if Joe Burrow is healthy all season.
8:02But yeah, he's good. But he plays in a prolific offense.
8:05I just don't seem as a borderline first round pick.
8:08I do think he's more of a low end RB one and a second round value.
8:13All right. So controversy here to start the show.
8:16I love it. Speaking of controversy. Now this next player, we're going to talk about is no stranger to controversy.
8:22Oh, he just is kicking out of his own way.
8:25Just can't do it. Rushy rice. And, and look again, Fitzy, you talk about scared money.
8:30This might be terrified money for me. The ECR is a 27 on him.
8:34You're at 36. Andrew's at 21. Fitzy. I got to say, I'm a little bit closer to where you are when it
8:41comes to rushy rice, because I, I, I look around the other players where he's going near, and I just feel a
8:47little bit more comfortable, a little cozier, my little blanket.
8:51I just pull up and put the fireplace on and watch them NFL and not have to worry about is my number
8:57one wide receiver on my fantasy team going to get arrested this week for something else stupid.
9:02And it just feels like that is almost an inevitability.
9:05And we're, we're supposed to like somehow ignore all that and think that everything's going to be bright and sunny and maybe it will be.
9:13But I feel like the percentage of that after watching the last couple of years unfold, it's just screaming otherwise at you.
9:20So talk to me about rushy rice and why this is a player that seems like you are staying away from this year.
9:27Last year, we got that discount because of the suspension to start the season.
9:31There's no discount this year at ECR 27 overall.
9:34Um, and rice is a PPR machine. He's great after the catch.
9:37Andy Reed loves dialing up those wide receiver screens, but yes, there's obviously some risk here, character risk, injury risk.
9:44Uh, Rasheed rice has missed 22 regular season games.
9:46The last two years due to suspension and injury.
9:49So I know what I said earlier with Christian McCaffrey and playing for upside and there's undeniable upside with Rishi rice, but
9:56I do think Xavier worthy could be more of a thorn in rice's side than he was, uh, a year ago.
10:02Look worthy was really good over the second half of his rookie year when rice had messed up his LCL.
10:08Um, last year, worthy dislocated his shoulder when he, uh, that infamous friendly fire collision with Travis Kelsey and the chief season
10:15opener, he only missed a couple of games, but it felt like he was never 100% the whole season.
10:21Chiefs also signed Kenneth Walker. They're going to run the ball more this season.
10:25Now that they've got an explosive back, maybe they don't need those wide receiver screens.
10:30So much those, uh, you know, they're kind of an extension of their running game with Rishi rice, getting these little quick
10:36throws doing what he can do after the catch.
10:39So, uh, I dunno, maybe I'm a little too low, but I do think there are better options on the board around that round two round three turn.
10:48And there's certainly safer options on the board at that point.
10:51Well, look, I understand that maybe Terrell McMillan has some limitations in his offense with Bryce young.
10:56I understand that Devonta Smith is, is a, well, can he really be the alpha?
11:01Like there's, there's a lot of debate about that.
11:03Hell on this show, we debate all the time.
11:06That's kind of the range where he's going, but Andrew, your range is completely different because not only you higher than the
11:13fitzy is you're higher than the consensus is on Rushy rice.
11:16So you're at 21 ECR is a 27 overall.
11:19So let's talk about it. Like, are, are, do you feel after all of a sudden the fitzy said that you're maybe
11:26putting your head in the sand a little bit about some of the changes on the chiefs offense potentially, or the vulnerabilities
11:32of a player like rice who continuously finds himself in trouble.
11:36Just chasing the upside top five wide receiver last year in points per game, second and red zone targets per game.
11:42I've talked about this before on the show last couple of years, where how do you find the wide receiver one overall?
11:49It's usually the guy that leads the NFL and red zone targets.
11:53And last year on a per game basis, rice trailed only to Monte Adams in that category.
11:58So if he is scoring a ton of touchdowns, still attached to Patrick Mahomes, Mahomes comes back from his knee injury and
12:04is healthier than we all expect where his ADP and ECR is then rice could absolutely smash.
12:10So I still believe that he is the best receiver on the chiefs.
12:14Even if worthy takes a step forward. I mean, how much more of Travis Kelsey are we going to get?
12:20He's 35, 36 years old now. So I think rice who is not coming off a season ending injury.
12:25Now this year, last year, he was coming off a season end injury.
12:29I know he had the knee scope, but in all the reports that we've gotten lately, he's out of prison now or jail.
12:36He served his 30 day sentence. He's listening to himself too.
12:40Well, he's out of prison now. Like that doesn't make you feel a little bit concerned.
12:45I'm not saying that he's not without his warts, but we're chasing upside.
12:49We're chasing upside here. And it's a top five guy that you can get outside.
12:53And he's not where he's not being ranked anywhere near the top five wide receivers.
12:58And you can get him as a guy outside the top 12 wide receivers.
13:02So. All right. I mean, I feel like the tailgate is bleeding over right now.
13:07If you're just doing that show here on FB from this conversation.
13:10So stuff. All right. Let's get to another guy here.
13:13Kyron Williams, a guy that annually is very divisive there.
13:16It feels like ever since Kyron Williams got the lead back role, people out there in the fantasy football industry have been
13:23wanting to kill the value of Kyron Williams. It just feels like it's an annual thing.
13:28And then some people have been converted. Other people then start to leave the ship.
13:33It's very funny to watch what happens. The consensus ECR is at 35.
13:37Pat, you're a 29. Andrew, you're at 45. So we're talking about one significantly higher than ECR.
13:42Andrew is running for the hills. Andrew, is it because of what you saw from Blake Corum last year or just because
13:48now the law of averages of a couple of years of Kyron Williams, you're worried that eventually the things that people were
13:55scared of two or three years ago might finally come home to roost?
13:59Like you got to explain this to me. Why are you so out on Kyron?
14:04Well, I feel like the season I decided to be in on Kyron.
14:08I'm going to be wrong again because I've been one of these people that has been very wrong on Kyron Williams basically every single season.
14:15So full disclosure there and I'm maybe teeing up to be wrong yet again.
14:20Corum does scare me because even though Kyron Williams was more efficient last year, his points per game fell off from 2024.
14:26So what change in the offense? The addition of Blake Corum, Blake Corum sees goal line opportunities in this Rams offense.
14:33Kyron Williams had 54% of the goal line carries last year for the Rams.
14:37That was 20th among running backs. He hasn't finished top five in terms of full fantasy standing the last three seasons when
14:44he's been the bell cow for the Los Angeles Rams offense led by Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford.
14:49So my question is not of can he be an RB one or reach his ADP, which I think he can.
14:56I just get concerned of how much higher is his ceiling really?
14:59I mean, he's had he's been teed up the last couple years and yes, RB 10.
15:04That's not that's not a bad finish by any means.
15:07But when he's being drafted as the RB 12, RB 13, it's a small win versus well, what if Blake Corum keeps getting better?
15:14What if he is the more explosive running back of the two guys?
15:18What if Kyron Williams doesn't score as many rushing touchdowns?
15:21He scored his fewest rushing touchdowns last season. And the other thing too is the Rams dead last and running back target share over the last two seasons.
15:30So you don't have any receiving workload to fall back on.
15:33So I don't want to dissuade anybody from saying that Kyron can't finish as a top 15 running back because clearly he
15:40can do that even with Blake Corum in the fold.
15:43My concern is that if there's a scenario where Corum does see another bigger role as a third year running back, you
15:50could get left holding the bag a little bit with Kyron Williams versus what is his actual ceiling?
15:55If it's he can only be like RB 10, which is what he's basically been the last two seasons.
16:01Well, then I don't necessarily want to buy that where he's being drafted.
16:05RB six, RB seven, RB nine, the last three years in a prolific offense, when Matthew Stafford is running it, obviously that Stafford another year older too.
16:13I can understand that. Look, I get what you're saying here, Andrew and Fitzy.
16:18There's a definite point of like, Hey, Blake Corum proved that he could be very useful in this offense.
16:23And if he starts to pull more from Kyron Williams as this season takes on in 2026, that's problematic.
16:29But again, that that's kind of more of a theoretical if for me, where are you at here with Kyron Williams?
16:36Cause you're above consensus. I am. And I've been kind of slow to come around on him and I'm, I'm there now.
16:42So I don't know. Maybe I will get the rug yanked out from under me this year, but maybe so far at
16:49three years of RB one production, three years straight of averaging at least 90 yards from scrimmage per game.
16:5544 touchdowns in 45 regular season games over the last three years for Kyron Williams.
16:59The Rams are an offensive juggernaut. Sean McVay is one of the great offensive designers in the game.
17:05Um, they're going to pile up points this year.
17:08Kyron is the preferred short yardage touchdown guy. Even if Corum does get some of those short yardage carries and the Rams
17:14should have run friendly game scripts all year with miles Garrett, making that defense even better.
17:19So I think at a late, well, this is ECR, not ADP, but right now with this sort of late third round
17:26valuation, McVay could turn up the dials a little bit on, uh, Blake Corum's usage and, and scale back on Kyron and
17:33Kyron could still pay off on this price point.
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19:13Dylan, and I say that with love and respect for both of those actors, and I don't know how many Oscar nominations they give out.
19:21I don't know if it's five, six for best actor.
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19:34I Am Rappaport Podcast I love to hear from everybody here in the chats, because I love this kind of show, where
19:41you give the expert consensus rankings, where it's the groupthink, right?
19:44Remember, it's basically like polling, right? It's not truth, it's just where the majority of people seem to land when you put everyone's opinions together.
19:52And then when you see two very smart and informed opinions like Andrew, and like Fitzy, on different spectrums on these players,
19:59I think it's fascinating, and I like the conversation, because it does make you rethink stuff, right?
20:04Maybe it is the year that Kyron Williams gets the rug pulled out from under, maybe it's the, it's a year too
20:10early, where Andrew was like, nah, I mean, how many times does this poor guy have to go out there?
20:17It's like, it's starting to feel like Aaron Jones a little bit, Fitzy, and I think you could appreciate this, because every
20:23year people wanted to undo Aaron Jones as an RB1, and every year Aaron Jones just kept putting up RB1 season, so really interesting stuff here.
20:31We're going to keep with this conversation, too, with some of these polarizing players, but before we get to all of that,
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22:17All right, let's talk about some more players here that are polarizing.
22:21Jalen Waddle, another guy that's been a hot-button topic here on the shows over the last week.
22:26ECR's at 48, Erickson, you're at 43, Pat, you're at 55.
22:30Pat, you seem to have some concerns here about Jalen Waddle.
22:33I know mine is just how much are they going to have to really press the football with the defense of being
22:40so good and the run game being so committed to.
22:43Talk to me about your concerns, because it seems like you have some when it comes to Waddle in 2026.
22:49Oh, man, I feel like I should just capitulate right now.
22:52I probably should have Jalen Waddle a little higher.
22:55Like Erickson and I have been on Team Waddle together.
22:58When we did the ranking show last year, both of us often had Waddle ranked above consensus in any given week.
23:04I think he's a terrific player. I do worry a bit about the target volume.
23:09The Broncos were fourth in pass attempts last season, the year before they were 11th in 2023.
23:14Sean Payton's first year in Denver, they were 27th.
23:17And it wasn't Bo Nix at quarterback in 2023.
23:20It was Russell Wilson. And while it wasn't a vintage Russell Wilson season, he wasn't terrible that year.
23:25He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, which is actually better than the YPA for Bo Nix in either of his two seasons.
23:32Nix was only at 6.4 last year. And as you said, Joe, the Broncos certainly have a defense that's going to provide
23:38them with some really run friendly game scripts. Maybe Sean Payton is going to feel more comfortable running the ball this year with J.K.
23:46Dobbins back and Jonah Coleman added to the mix.
23:48So Cortland Sutton is still around. Um, I just, I don't think Jalen Waddle is going to be among the NFL's target leaders this year.
23:56I do like Waddle. Really good player. I probably do need to come up on him in my rankings.
24:02I just don't know if we're, a lot of people seem to see top 12 upside for him this year.
24:08I don't know if I see it. Great start to the Waddle career.
24:12No doubt about it. Last couple of years, less than thrilling.
24:15Andrew, you're not only buying in, it seems like you're buying in with a vengeance because you are above, uh, the ECR here by five spots here.
24:24ECR 48 year of 43. So I know we kind of chatted about Waddle on a previous show, but give everybody the spiel one more time.
24:31If they missed that one. I love Jalen Waddle this year.
24:35I think that him landing in Denver is a significant upgrade.
24:38Even when you're considered the supporting cast in Denver between the receivers that they have.
24:43I just think it's going to be a top two in terms of Coral and son and Jalen Waddle getting the majority of volume.
24:50I think Pat Bryant will still be involved, but I think Troy Franklin's going to be a player that kind of fades into the background.
24:58I think they went out and traded a first round pick as a Super Bowl contender for a reason.
25:03They have a role in mind for Jalen Waddle, who last year, I think really suffered because of the circumstances because Miami
25:10turned into check the ball down or run the football, hide to at all costs.
25:15So Waddle didn't really get the chance to explode in an offense minus Tyree kill because traditionally when Tyree kill has missed
25:21time or has been limited, Jalen Waddle has absolutely smashed, chopped 82 yards in five of his 11 games in 2025.
25:28Again, a lot of those games that Tyree kill in the lineup, he was 13th in yards per route run last year.
25:35So there's nothing about looking under the hood with Waddle and some of these advanced metrics that suggest to me that, oh,
25:41this guy is washed or this guy is cooked.
25:44No, I think that he's still in his prime based on his age.
25:48And I think that he's got a quarterback upgrade.
25:51I still think Denver is going to sling it.
25:53They were one of the highest rated teams in terms of pass rate over expectation last year, eighth and pass rate overall seventh and pass rate over expectation.
26:02Miami was super run heavy last year. And I think that itself is not being talked about enough where, yes, there is more competition in Denver.
26:10But when you throw the ball 100 more times than the other offense you were just part of, well, that balances itself out.
26:17And even if he's not seeing, you know, 150 targets or something along those lines, he's going to be hyper efficient because
26:24he's going to get one-on-one looks because there's a lot of weapons in this Denver offense.
26:29And traditionally Denver, the defense, I think it could regress a little bit.
26:33You lost John Franklin Myers. Jonathan Cooper has some off-field issues going on one of their linebackers.
26:38They were one of the healthiest defenses in the NFL last year.
26:41What happens year to year? Usually not that healthy from a season to a season.
26:46So if their defense takes a little bit of step back, really tough schedule to open the year, I think they have
26:53to lean more on the passing game. So Jalen Waddle for me going as a wide receiver two.
26:58I think he's got wide receiver one upside. All right.
27:01One more guy in this top 50 range here.
27:04Actually, he's 50 on the button that ECR. It's Jameson Williams, wide receiver of the Detroit Lions.
27:09And remember, you can check out all the ECR over on our fantasybros.com slash rankings site.
27:14So go check it out for yourselves. Erickson, you're way under consensus here at 70.
27:19Pat is above at 41. Now, Jameson Williams, certainly a big playmaker, splashy.
27:23You know, he's a fun flex play. You know, you're going to have some big days from him and also going to be some quiet days from him.
27:31Is that the reason that you've kind of buried him in your rankings?
27:35Yes. He had the highest bus rate of any player in the top 20 wide receivers last year.
27:4138 percent bus rate, according to the fantasy pros boomer bus report.
27:44And it was completely correlated to the games which Sam Laporta was active and healthy and the games where he was not active and healthy.
27:52And when Dan Campbell was calling the plays, Dan Campbell's not calling the plays next year.
27:57It's going to be Drew Petsing. So for those reasons, I just think that he's being overvalued.
28:02I understand the allure with the boom performances, but when he wasn't booming to start the year weeks one through seven, I
28:09know that I was pumping Jameson Williams last year.
28:11I drafted him on a lot of teams. He was getting cut from a lot of teams.
28:16He was on waiver wires on a lot of leagues because he was outside the top 50 and points per game to start the year last season.
28:25And he was super frustrating to own as a fantasy manager.
28:28So for those reasons, that's why I'm lower than consensus.
28:31All right, Fitzy, you don't seem to have as much of a problem with those goose eggs that you get from Jameson
28:38Williams some weeks where he's just not a part of the game plan or he just doesn't really show up in the game.
28:45I get it. Like, that's frustrating thing, but also those big days that can help carry you.
28:50So the fact that you're above consensus, let's talk about that here with Williams, because that's something that actually did surprise me.
28:57They're not closer to that 50. A lot of those bust weeks were early last season when it was just Jameson Williams
29:03running a lot of go routes downfield and not getting targeted that often.
29:07And Jameson Williams seemed to be a primary driver of the Dan Campbell decision to take over the play calling duties from
29:14offensive coordinator John Morton midway through last season with Morton calling the plays.
29:18Jamo averaged 2.6 catches and 44.4 receiving yards a game.
29:21After Campbell took over, he averaged 4.9 catches and 84.7 receiving yards a game.
29:25There were not a lot of bust weeks over the back half of the regular season for Jameson Williams.
29:31So, yeah, it was Campbell started calling the plays in week 10.
29:35From week 10 on, Jameson Williams was wide receiver nine in half point PPR scoring right behind teammate Amon Ross St.
29:41Brown with less than a point per game separating them.
29:44So, yeah, Campbell got Jamo running more crossing routes.
29:47There were a lot more catch and run opportunities for him.
29:50And that's where Jamo shines because man, that guy can freaking fly when he has the ball on his hands.
29:56So, yeah, John Morton is gone. Drew Petsing is the new OC.
30:00But Dan Campbell is still the head coach. And you can bet that when Campbell was interviewing OC candidates, Jameson Williams came
30:07up in that conversation and how he was going to be used.
30:11So I think Petsing's usage is not going to be all go routes for Jameson Williams anymore.
30:16Not if he wants to keep the play calling responsibility.
30:19So I just I don't want to forget about the season splits for Jamison Williams last year and how much better the
30:25second half was than the first half. All right.
30:28Before we get to some of the mid late round guys that are disagreements here and polarizing on the channel, don't forget
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31:46All right, let's get to some mid late round guys.
31:49Bayshel Tootin, another polarizing player here for sure. I'm still kind of wrapping my mind around where I'm at with Bayshel Tootin.
31:55I like his current ADP. I'm concerned it's going to get higher than that.
32:00Fitz a year at 76. Erickson's at 60. ECR is in between you guys at 65.
32:05So Pat, you're not quite there on Bayshel Tootin.
32:07Why? I'm intrigued by Tootin's speed and his playmaking potential.
32:10And Liam Cohen has been a rainmaker for running backs.
32:13That's good. My concern is that Tootin might not get as many touches as we'd like and not as many high value touches as we'd like.
32:21I'm just worried that Chris Rodriguez is the goal line guy and that he also gets a good amount of the early
32:28down work and that LaQuint Allen is the main passing down back because he's a good pass catcher and a good pass blocker.
32:35So I'm just, I'm nervous that Tootin winds up being more of a flex type guy than a guy you feel good about starting every week.
32:43All right. Andrew Erickson, Bayshel Tootin. Again, you are locked and loaded, been ready to go with Tootin this year and you're,
32:50I've done a lot of shows with you. So you're starting to get me kind of there a little bit.
32:56Despite the early Chris Rodriguez fear, we seem to be losing that.
32:59I just think that this is the exact same scenario where we were in with Zach Moss and Chase Brown a couple
33:06years ago where Zach Moss comes in as the veteran and I don't remember you.
33:11Or Zach Moss and Dalvin Cook. I mean, James Cook rather, not Dalvin Cook.
33:15Sorry. Like, I feel like this happens a lot where Zach Moss goes.
33:19I just, I just don't think that Chris Rodriguez is this player that's going to keep Bayshel Tootin off the field.
33:25I think that everything that Chris Rodriguez can do from a success rate standpoint, from yards after contact per attempt, he was
33:32highly ranked in those metrics last year, but so was Bayshel Tootin.
33:36He was right up there in the same type of success rate, the same type of yards after contact per attempt.
33:42What the difference was is we know he offers way more juice as a rusher to create explosive plays, which he didn't
33:49do last year, but it's within his skill set just based on what you saw him do at the combine, which is
33:56on do at Virginia Tech when he had one of the highest breakaway run rates in college football.
34:01And last year, who were they taking off the field in the red zone?
34:05Travis Etienne or Travis Achan. They were taking him off the field to put Bayshel Tootin in.
34:10So I'm also not concerned about Chris Rodriguez being a thorn in the side of Tootin in the red zone because Bayshel
34:17Tootin did it last year against a better running back.
34:20No one's making the debate that Travis Achan or Chris Rodriguez is better than Travis Achan.
34:25I don't think he is. So if Tootin was able to carve out a role against that type of running back and
34:32Chris Rodriguez is why we're concerned, I'm just not going to buy that.
34:36I looked more about Rodriguez last year, too, because when I was writing a lot of my weekly articles, I couldn't really remember him being super effective.
34:44When I looked at some of his earlier game logs versus later in the year, I think it's really boosted up.
34:50So week nine against Seattle, garbage time. Week 11, he faced the Miami Dolphins at the time.
34:56Historically, the worst run defense in the NFL before the week 12 by week.
35:00Rodriguez was a bottom 10 grader rusher per PFF, and that included the game against the Miami Dolphins.
35:05So he was dead last in elusive rating tied with Aaron Jones, who a lot of people are really down on as
35:12someone that man is this guy totally cooked. Chris Rodriguez was a complete afterthought until Brian Robinson got cut.
35:18Brian Robinson is another one of these like Jag running backs who, OK, we're just waiting for the next guy to get replaced.
35:25So I think Tootin is so clear the upside play for this Jaguars offense.
35:29And I'm just not going to let a player like Chris Rodriguez, who apparently the Jaguars didn't even want.
35:35They wanted J.K. Dobbins. That's who they wanted to sign.
35:38Rodriguez was their consolation prize. So I don't know if I'm convincing Fitz in any way, shape or form, but man, I
35:45just get I get feels of Chase Brown to Bayshall to in year two.
35:49And I want you on board Fitz. Fitz, any movement there for you?
35:53He is swaying me. This foot injury for Chris Rodriguez doesn't help.
35:57It does scare me, though, that Chris Rodriguez had a 1300 yard rushing season for Liam Cohen at the University of Kentucky.
36:03That makes me a little nervous. All right. Let's move on to the next player on our list here.
36:09That's polarizing RJ Harvey. ECR 83 Erickson, you're right there at ECR 82.
36:13Pat, you're way further down at 133. So, Pat, this is not even in the same neighborhood.
36:18Look, RJ Harvey last year finished the season very strong, scored a bunch of touchdowns.
36:23We kind of recapped it on a previous show, but that was not enough to move Pat Fitzmaurice in terms of ECR.
36:30Yeah, Joe, you have a stage background. I mean, RJ Harvey failed the audition last year after J.K.
36:35Dobbins got hurt. He forgot his lines when he was reading with the casting director.
36:40Yeah, I mean, I can see I'm not going to have any RJ Harvey in redraft this year.
36:45Denver running game was just stuck in the mud after J.K.
36:48Dobbins got hurt. 3.3 yards per carry for Harvey after the Dobbins injury, running behind a good offensive line.
36:54So, Dobbins is back. The Broncos drafted Jonah Coleman in the fourth round.
36:58I think Dobbins gets a majority of the early down carries and the goal line carries, and Coleman is this capable pass catcher and a good pass blocker.
37:07I just, I don't know how Harvey fits in here.
37:10Sean Payton has always been a running back by committee guy anyway.
37:13Like, ECR and Erickson's ranking put RJ Harvey in the seventh round.
37:17No thank you. No thank you to that price.
37:20Andrew, you had a lot of positivity. You were spreading about RJ Harvey just yesterday.
37:24So let's talk about RJ Harvey and your take.
37:27I guess for me, it's he did the things that were tougher as a rookie in terms of catching passes and scoring touchdowns.
37:34He got 56 passes last year and scored 12 touchdowns.
37:37Usually when a rookie running back does that, they're drafted in the third round the next season when you put up those type of stats.
37:45But the rushing agreed left a lot to be desired.
37:48But I'm leaving the door open for RJ Harvey to improve in that capacity because I think that's like the least challenging thing for him, right?
37:56We're usually hoping that these rookie running backs, okay, now he's going to get more touchdowns or he's going to be finally unlocked in the passing game.
38:04RJ Harvey's already done that. He's already gotten a lot of red zone opportunities and JK Dobbins is not built to last.
38:11We all know that. So I agree with the ultimate upside case with Harvey isn't probably there because Jonah Coleman would probably
38:17project to take on some of that Dobbins workload when he eventually does go down and break down just because this happens with JK Dobbins every single season.
38:26But I don't want to disregard what he did as a receiver, which was really impressive as a rookie running back.
38:32Now, maybe that is just a product of the system.
38:35Like Sean Payton loves to throw running backs. I mean, Jaleel McLaughlin, D-Rose favorite guy, was a guy that we were kind
38:42of like hyping up because he was like popping off of some of these advanced metrics and I'm obviously just, you know,
38:49throwing some shade at D-Rose for a little bit of fun.
38:52But that is always something to be kind of like precarious of this Denver Broncos backfield.
38:57So I'm in line with ECR. Harvey is not one of my players where it's like you must draft this particular player,
39:04but in a full PPR from light at running back, like I don't mind where he ends up going.
39:10All right. Brian Thomas is going around ECR of 85.
39:13The expert consensus ranking has them there. Pat's right on it at 86.
39:17Erickson, you're nowhere near it at 106. No, I'm not because Trevor Lawrence is still his quarterback and I've still yet to
39:23see these two guys gel in any capacity. It's actually like so surprising to look at back to how good Brian Thomas Jr.
39:30was with Mac Jones as his quarterback versus when Brian Tom or back when Trevor Lawrence is his quarterback.
39:36Average 87 receiving yards per game with Mac Jones.
39:39That's 56 with Trevor Lawrence and a 25 game sample size.
39:42So maybe it was the injuries last year. I just think there's a lot of mouths to feed in this offense.
39:49And I think Brian Thomas Jr. might just be deployed as that downfield threat, which great for spite weeks.
39:54Awesome. But in terms of consistency, in terms of leading the team and targets on a week to week basis, when how
40:01many receivers deep are the Jaguars going to go here?
40:04Is Travis Hunter going to get targets? Is Brendan Strange going to get targets without the guy they drafted in the second round at the tight end?
40:12I can't remember his name, but he's probably going to play.
40:16So those are for the reasons why I'm concerned about Brian Thomas Jr.
40:20I love the talent, obviously what we saw from his rookie year, but look, it was still a small sample size with Mac Jones.
40:27That's when he really flashed the other sample size, which 25 games of Brian Thomas Jr.
40:32has been more disappointing than good. Yeah. Strange just signed an extension, by the way, Brenton Strange for a couple years, three year extension on his deal.
40:40So he's one of my sleeper tight ends. I like him.
40:44Fitzy, there was a report Trevor Lawrence saying that, you know, that these two are starting to grow some chemistry, but you're going from zero to low.
40:52That doesn't move the fantasy needle necessarily. It's got to go from zero to medium to high, I think, for us to get excited about him.
41:00So Erickson's out. Are you still hanging on or you're just working censuses because you're unsure?
41:05Yeah, I guess Erickson's out on Nate Borkercher, too, since he forgot his name.
41:09Well, who could forget a good Borkercher? Sorry to the Borkercher family.
41:12Apologies accepted. I am torn here. I'm open to the possibility that injuries were largely to blame for BTJ's rough season in
41:192025 and that we'll see something much closer to the rookier version of BTJ in 2026.
41:24But I do realize the Jaguars are loaded at receiver.
41:27Everything Erickson said about BTJ not clicking with Trevor Lawrence, 100% true.
41:31And just generally, Trevor Lawrence seems to click best with this slot guy more than his outside guys.
41:36I do have that fear that he's just sort of the zombie X receiver who runs a lot of routes and doesn't
41:43see as many targets as we want. So, yeah, I'm one spot behind ECR and that's kind of the hedge I'm looking for with my BTJ ranking.
41:51I ideally will have him in exactly one redraft league just in case he goes back to that rookier version of BTJ.
41:58Fitz, is he your highest ranked Jaguars wide receiver?
42:01I've got Parker Washington a smidge higher. Okay. So, okay.
42:04Zombie X, by the way, one of my favorite PlayStation 2 games.
42:07If that wasn't one, it feels like it was.
42:10Zombie X? Doesn't it sound like a PlayStation 2 game?
42:13It does. All right. Let's talk about Kyle Pitts who, for his credit, Fitzy was still in on last year and there was some rewards to be had.
42:22Pat, you're back in this year at 63 overall.
42:24ECR is at 86. Erickson is at 84. So, you're buying back in.
42:28Fitzy, it's a great year for tight ends. Very top heavy.
42:32Some really exciting guys. Top six slash seven guys are about there.
42:35If you miss those guys, it feels like Fitz is somebody that you can at least look to as a pretty decent consolation prize.
42:43Yep. You should still be the clear number two target in the Atlanta offense behind Drake London.
42:48Pitts was tight end two in half point PPR scoring last year.
42:5288 catches, 928 yards, five touchdowns. Kevin Stefanski, the Falcons new head coach, has traditionally been a very tight end friendly play caller.
42:59Stefanski's offenses the last three years have averaged 167 tight end targets.
43:02Plus, Pitts, an athletic freak. Still only 25 years old.
43:05And Pat Thorman have established the run. Just mentioned on Twitter that the only tight ends with more catches than Pitts through
43:12their age 25 seasons are Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten.
43:16That's pretty good company. I know people like hating on Kyle Pitts, but he's going to be a value in drafts yet again this year.
43:23Andrew, it doesn't seem like you're just excited about Pitts.
43:26It feels like you're right where expert consensus is and that's okay by you.
43:31But do you see him being, you know, maybe somebody should reconsider that value?
43:35He's not really part of my tight end strategy this year.
43:38I think it's I want to get a guy a little bit earlier than Kyle Pitts or I want to wait on
43:45a player and get later in drafts. He's going in the middle tier of tight ends, which traditionally if you just look
43:52at the hit rates of the tight ends in the seven to eight, nine, ten, eleven range, these guys usually bust at a pretty high rate.
44:00So I don't like that from an ADP perspective.
44:02And what concerns me is when Drake London is healthy in this lineup, it is so clear who the alpha is in
44:09this passing game and it's not Kyle Pitts. Last two seasons, 8.5 PPR points per game outside the top 20 tight ends last year.
44:16That's where that would rank. So he was better with Kirk Cousins than Michael Penix.
44:21What if Michael Penix is the quarterback? Also, I get stylistically you can make the case or maybe Tua or Michael Penix will feature him.
44:29I think that the Stefanski points are really illustrate a good picture for Kyle Pitts.
44:33So that's something that I'm not necessarily considering when it comes to looking at the past production if the offense changes.
44:40So that would probably take a hit on Drake London.
44:43I just think London is so good that the offense is still going to funnel through him in the passing game.
44:49And I'm not excited about the ceiling with Tua or Michael Penix as the quarterback in this offense, right?
44:55We're talking about the Falcons as a potential team that's going to be drafting a quarterback in 2027.
45:00So if the quarterback play isn't good, one of these quarterbacks gets banged up behind a backup right tackle.
45:06That's where I get concerned. So for me, Kyle Pitts is just not part of my draft strategy.
45:12Again, if he falls into that late round tight end territory, okay, I can sign up for it.
45:17But right now he's not someone that I'm circling on my draft boards.
45:21All right. Two more guys to talk about. Rashad White, Erickson, you've got him at 73, higher than the ECR at 116.
45:28Pat, you've got him lower at 127. So Erickson, Rashad White, again, might not be special, but he has been a guy
45:34that has been a lead back in the NFL before with the Buccaneers.
45:38Corey Krosky-Meritt had opportunities. To me, he didn't really break away and I didn't blow my mind at all.
45:44I think I'm where you are. I think Rashad White is actually a more intriguing late round running back to take.
45:51But what are your thoughts? Sell the audience on it.
45:54He just seems so clearly like this year's Javante Williams, right?
45:57You get this veteran running back that everybody's sick of and he's not that good when you look at his body of
46:04work and he's never finished worse than RB 38 and half PPR.
46:07He finished as the RB 7 overall in 2023.
46:10He was the RB 24 in points per game, seven games from weeks 5 through 12 when Bucky Irving was injured.
46:16His efficiency marks were a lot better last year, second in rushing success rate EPA per rush because he was really good
46:23at the goal line in short yardage situations. He knows Jaden Daniels.
46:27He's on an offense that's devoid of established pass catchers outside Terry McLaurin.
46:31All he does is catch passes. 40 or more catches in four straight seasons.
46:35How do you score fantasy points? You catch passes and you score touchdowns, which is what he did last year.
46:41So I think Rashad White is just such an easy pick.
46:45I understand the risk is, yeah, he's lost his job and touches to Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, two former day three
46:51running backs, but that's baked into his price. He is basically free.
46:55You can get him as your RB 3 or RB 4 and I think that he has RB 1 upside.
47:01He's done it before. So give me Rashad White.
47:04Fitzy, is your ranking based upon your lack of excitement about the whole committee potentially with the Washington commanders or is it more Rashad White based specifically?
47:12Capped upside, but I just how do you score a needle moving amount of fantasy points for running back?
47:18You catch passes and do something as a runner.
47:20I just don't think Rashad White is a good enough runner to really become the lead guy to become the main guy on early downs.
47:28It seems like this is headed toward a full-blown committee with White and Ja'Cory Kroski married.
47:33It was kind of sneaky efficient last year. Katron Allen, who drafted out of Penn State, who I think is going to be in the mix.
47:41Maybe some Jerome Ford. Who knows? White's receiving ability does give him a floor.
47:45I just don't see much of a ceiling. All right.
47:48Fair enough. One more guy to talk about here.
47:51Mark Andrews, tight end of the Baltimore Ravens. Pat has him at 104.
47:55Erickson's got him at 154. ECR is in between at 130.
47:58So Erickson, we know you're out. Obviously, Pat, why should people still be theoretically in on Mark Andrews this season?
48:04We don't know what the Ravens offense is going to look like with Declan Doyle as the new OC.
48:10But in Lamar Jackson's seven full season as a starter, here's where Ravens tight ends have ranked in percentage of team targets.
48:17First, fifth, first, first, tenth, fourth, and fourth. So it seems like Lamar enjoys throwing the tight ends.
48:22Isaiah likely is gone. Andrews figures to get a really high percentage of the Ravens tight end targets this season.
48:28They signed Durham Smythe. He's a blocking tight end.
48:31They drafted Matthew Hibner in the fourth round. Maybe he's a factor as a rookie, but his college numbers at SMU were pretty unremarkable.
48:39The Ravens still look pretty thin at wide receiver beyond Zay Flowers.
48:42I mean, maybe Elijah Surratt pops. I like him as a prospect, but no proven number two pass catcher.
48:48And I realize Andrews is coming off a bad year.
48:51Career lows in receiving yardage, yards per catch, yards per target.
48:54But it was just generally a down season for the Baltimore passing game in general.
48:59It should be better this year with a healthier Lamar and Mark Andrews.
49:03Yeah, he's older. He's not ancient. Turns 31 two days before the start of the regular season.
49:08He's two years younger than George Kittle. So I think if you punt tight end, Andrews is a worthwhile target.
49:14Well, Erickson, it does also feel like in this new offense, we don't know what Andrews role is going to be.
49:21We can only assume it's that guy around the red zone that Lamar Jackson always likes to find.
49:26But that is an unknown factor. Is that enter into your ranking here?
49:30Well, I think that the receivers they drafted profile as guys that could see opportunities in the red zone between Surratt and Jacoby Lane.
49:37I think Mark Andrews is just cooked at this point, to be honest, like his stuff has fallen off.
49:43Zach Ertz had more yards out to the catch than Mark Andrews did last year.
49:48Zach Ertz, the guy who can't force a broken tackle to save his life.
49:52Out of 49 qualifying tight ends, Mark Andrews was dead last in yards out to the catch per reception.
49:58That has nothing to do with the quarterback play.
50:01That is, you get him the ball. What was he doing?
50:04Not getting yardage. I look for a yak with my tight ends.
50:08That's how it gravitated me towards Tucker Craft. That's why I like Chico Conkwo this year.
50:12I think Mark Andrews is out of juice and it's been like this the last couple seasons.
50:18Again, when I was really high on him, he had that one that that game against the Chiefs and Isaiah likely outplayed
50:24him and he was playing like terrible. I I'm just I'm not there with Mark Andrews.
50:29There are other late round tight ends. I'd much rather prefer.
50:33All right, guys, before we call it a day here, just out of curiosity, of all the guys we've talked about, give
50:39me one player that you think you might be very wrong when all said and done, because, you know, we can't be right about everything.
50:47We have different opinions about stuff. Fitzy, is there one guy on these lists of all the players we talked about high
50:54or low that you might be like, you know, I could see me being really wrong about this guy?
50:59Kyle Pitts has made my bullish forecast for him look stupid in the past.
51:04He could certainly do it again. How about you, Andrew?
51:07Who's the one guy that you're willing to concede you might be horribly wrong about, especially because some of these ranks are pretty dramatically off the expert consensus?
51:15I mean, it's got to be Chris McCaffrey, right?
51:18Like that one's pretty easy. Yeah. If he touches don't end up hurting him and he just smashes, then, yeah, I'm wearing fat egg on my face.
51:26There you go. Well, I'm sure the YouTube comments has a lot to say about this show.
51:31Who are you in on? Who are you out on?
51:34All the players we talked about. Who's polarizing? Well, obviously some of these guys, but I want to hear from all of you.
51:41Drop your comments below. Subscribe to the YouTube channel.
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52:12That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Andrew and Fitzy.
52:17I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids.
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52:37Copenhagen spit free packs American grown tobacco into pouches made from when your elbows deep in an engine block.
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