Boom or Bust? 4 Fantasy Football Picks Experts Can’t Agree On with Nathan Jahnke | Best of the Fest (Ep. 2162)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
35 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 31, 2026
Published
Mon, August 31, 2026
20
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
De'Von AchaneKenneth Walker IIILuther BurdenOmarion HamptonRashee RiceBrock BowersChris OlaveChristian WatsonColston LovelandCyrus AllenKeaton MitchellParker WashingtonRome OdunzeXavier Worthy
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
NegativeValue32:14
Nathan Jahnke advises against drafting Brock Bowers at the 2-3 turn, preferring to wait for later-round veteran tight ends like Tucker Kraft or George Kittle.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection31:44
Erickson ranks Chris Olave as a top-12 receiver, noting he has little target competition and is set for a big performance in Week 1 against the Lions following the injury to Jordan Tyson.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue33:12
Erickson prefers Christian Watson over Parker Washington in PPR formats.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue32:37
Erickson identifies Colston Loveland at the 4-5 turn as a strong value in 10-team PPR formats, arguing that elite tight ends provide more utility in that specific scoring structure.
Insight pageCyrus Allen
NegativeDepth Chart23:53
Nathan Jahnke notes that Cyrus Allen has been playing in the slot during the preseason, which could potentially cut into Rashee Rice's playing time if he earns a role.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveUsage16:41
Andrew Erickson highlights Devon Achane's potential for 20 touches per game, comparing his bull case to the 2022 Saquon Barkley season. Despite concerns about the Miami offense, Erickson believes Achane's talent and three-down skill set make him a high-volume asset, even with a mobile quarterback like Malik Willis.
Insight pagePositiveProjection26:46
Nathan Jahnke ranks Devon Achane as his RB6 overall, favoring him over other mid-second-round backs like Derek Henry, Kenneth Walker, and O'Marion Hampton. Jahnke believes Achane's talent is comparable to Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs and expects him to command heavy volume as the primary offensive weapon in Miami.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
NegativeUsage8:42
Nathan Jahnke is high on Keaton Mitchell, noting his 6.3 yards-per-carry career average and clear role as the number two back in the Chargers offense. Jahnke expects Mitchell to see a decent amount of volume, which serves as a primary reason for his tempered expectations regarding O'Marion Hampton's workload.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveBreakout18:54
Nathan Jahnke projects Kenneth Walker to have a monster year in the Chiefs' offense, noting he has a three-down skill set, is explosive, and is the perfect fit to help the team escape their recent offensive purgatory.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:46
Andrew Erickson identifies Kenneth Walker as his favorite among the mid-second-round running backs, predicting he could lead the NFL in rushing yards. Erickson believes Walker will be 'unleashed' in the Chiefs offense and possesses a three-down skill set that makes him a smash pick.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout25:11
Nathan Jahnke is high on Luther Burden (WR17), citing his impressive rookie efficiency (2.69 yards per route run) and his versatility across different personnel groupings, particularly in 12 personnel where Chicago is expected to play frequently.
Insight pageNegativeBust29:17
Erickson is fading Luther Burden at his current WR24 ADP, citing concerns about his touchdown upside, his position in the pecking order behind Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze, and the historical tendency for players to bust when drafted high without sufficient prior production.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
NegativeProjection3:20
Andrew Erickson is bullish on Hampton, citing his RB16 points-per-game finish over nine games last year despite offensive line injuries. While the interior line remains a concern with Tyler Biadasz on IR, Hampton's ceiling is high due to Mike McDaniel's history of high running back target shares and Justin Herbert's past success with pass-catching backs. Erickson views him as a long-shot bet to lead the NFL in touchdowns.
Insight pageNegativeRole11:53
Nathan Jahnke notes that while Hampton has RB3 potential, there is a risk of a three-back committee involving Vidal and Keaton Mitchell, which prevents him from ranking Hampton higher. Jahnke acknowledges the talent and pedigree but highlights the uncertainty surrounding the backfield distribution.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue33:23
Nathan Jahnke prefers Parker Washington over Christian Watson in PPR formats.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeValue20:09
Erickson notes Rashee Rice is a polarizing player with a top-five fantasy points-per-game ceiling, but concerns regarding off-field issues, injury recovery, and potential volume loss due to Kenneth Walker's arrival keep his ADP at WR16.
Insight pagePositiveProjection22:00
Nathan Jahnke is lower on Rashee Rice (WR19) than consensus, citing the arrival of Kenneth Walker, a likely shift away from the Chiefs' historically pass-heavy red zone approach, and a potential increase in Rice's average depth of target which may not suit his skill set.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveBreakout28:10
Erickson is bullish on Rome Odunze, preferring him over Luther Burden. He cites the 'year three' breakout trend for wide receivers and expects positive regression for Odunze's chemistry with Caleb Williams.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
PositiveBreakout23:43
Nathan Jahnke expects Xavier Worthy to be more involved in the Chiefs' offense this year, attributing his underwhelming rookie performance to a shoulder issue rather than a lack of talent.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue24:18
Erickson expresses a strong preference for Zay Flowers, though he currently ranks Rashee Rice ahead of him due to Rice's projected red zone usage in the Chiefs' offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. With the Discover Cash Back Card, it's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases.
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0:20Hello, everybody. Welcome into our three of 2026's version of Fantasy Fest here at Fantasy Pros.
0:24I'm Ryan Warmly, stepping in for the Welsh who did such a great job holding down the fort here in the first couple of hours.
0:32We are rolling on here another two hours for you on YouTube and then that after party they were talking about over on Twitch.
0:38Hope everybody joins for that as well. I am joined for this segment by Andrew Erickson and by Nathan Yonke from PFF.
0:45Really excited to talk about some polarizing players here in this segment, some boom or bust guys.
0:50The way we're going to do it is Erickson has provided his four hardest-to-ranked players.
0:54We're going to get his opinion. We're going to get Nathan's opinion.
0:57We're going to see what the audience thinks as well.
1:00Erickson, how are you doing here on Fantasy Fest Day?
1:03Dude, I am thrilled. So happy. We're already two hours in, but there's so much more that we have to talk about.
1:09Some more players to talk about draft strategies. So, Worm, I liked your polo in the ad read a little bit more
1:15than this polo here, but it's okay, man. I was really glad that I wasn't wearing the same one on accident remembering when I had recorded that one.
1:23So, glad to mix it up a little, even if it's not quite as nice of a shirt.
1:29Nathan, thank you so much for coming on and joining us today.
1:32Oh, yeah. Thanks for having me. Excited to be on.
1:35Two weeks till the season starts. Two weeks from today.
1:38So, I'm excited. It's that time. Like, you know, as soon as you hit August, you get really excited, but you get
1:44to like the last week or so of August and there's just a whole other level here.
1:49We are very excited ourselves. A lot of names to get through.
1:52So, let's jump right in here. Erickson, who is your number one, not necessarily in order, but number one of the four guys you picked, hardest-to-ranked players?
2:00Well, O'Marion Hampton running back for the Los Angeles Chargers.
2:03And I believe that we've already talked about him a couple different times throughout some of these segments because I think that he is a pretty polarizing player.
2:11Again, a small sample size last year. He only played half of the year.
2:15Chargers dealt with a lot of offensive line injuries.
2:17RB 16 in points per game over those nine games played.
2:20He scored five touchdowns. And now it's the projection of, okay, him and Mike McDaniel's offense.
2:25We're all expecting fireworks. But then you also throw into, okay, center Tyler Biotish, big, splashy free agency signing by the Chargers.
2:31Well, he's on your reserve. So, you're already down one of the interior offensive linemen upgrades.
2:36And that's where the question marks are on this Chargers offensive line.
2:39It's in the interior. You're expecting the tackles between Slater and Joe Walt to be back and healthy.
2:44And then to really carry this offensive line to be a top 10 unit.
2:48But how will the interior hold up? I think that affects a guy like O'Meara and Hampton.
2:53So, I've been more bullish on him, I think, through most of the process.
2:57I think that when I look at what he could do, especially at start the season, he's got the Cardinals.
3:03He's got the Raiders. He's got the Buffalo Bills.
3:05Like, this guy could score eight touchdowns in three weeks and nobody would be surprised.
3:10But then the Chargers schedule gets really, really tough from weeks four onward, where he has to face a juggernaut of run defenses.
3:16Now, obviously, that can change when guys go down.
3:19Teams are a little bit different than they were last year.
3:22But I do think that it may be an up-and-down type of season for O'Meara and Hampton.
3:27And then there's also the fact that Mike McDaniel has been vocal about, maybe I want to use some other running backs.
3:33But I think the ceiling case for O'Meara and Hampton, especially as a big running back with speed, that can catch passes out of the backfield.
3:40You look at McDaniel, last four years as the Dolphins head coach, running back target shares, third, seventh, third, and third.
3:46And the last time a Justin Herbert-led offense targeted a running back at a 20% clip, that was Austin Eckler when he
3:53was a top two fantasy running back in 2021, 2022.
3:56So, like, there's a really high ceiling for a player like O'Meara and Hampton, who I think is, like, a good long-shot
4:02bet to lead the NFL in touchdowns. Do you feel like, Erickson, quickly, that it's harder for you to rank him amongst
4:08running backs or just in terms of the overall as, like, that mid-second round pick range?
4:13I think amongst running backs. I feel good about him versus the wide receivers in that range because I know that I
4:19think that there is a tier fall-off after him where you're getting to more of the running back type of dead zone where I don't feel as confident.
4:27I feel confident about taking him in round two.
4:29It's just a matter of, like, do I want him over this running back or this running back here?
4:35Because the first two rounds, like we've talked about a lot of these shows, just stockpiled with a lot of really high upside running back plays.
4:42Nathan, what do you think? If you look at his real-time ADP on fantasypros.com, he's RB11.
4:47He was RB12 until the Ashton Gentry injury stuff, so he's now at RB11.
4:5118th pick, so right in the middle of the second round.
4:54Does that feel too high, too low, just right to you?
4:57That feels just right to me. I've been happy to get him right in that range.
5:02I want to throw out most of his rookie year because of the injury.
5:06Like, he came back. He didn't look like the same player even before that.
5:10Like Andrew was saying, the offensive line issues. I am still optimistic about the line because the tackles are back this year.
5:16They did make some changes on the interior outside of center as well, so I think the line will be better this
5:22season, so that'll be good to see. I am high on Keaton Mitchell, though.
5:26He's been great. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry in his career.
5:30He's been catching passes throughout training camp. It's been clear through the preseason he's the number two guy.
5:35I do think Mitchell will see a decent amount of volume, which is probably the main reason I'm not higher on Hampton,
5:41because I do think this Chargers offense should look really good this season.
5:45But then when you look at the guys behind him, like Jeremiah Love, who is in a worse offense and also could
5:51be in somewhat of a timeshare, Kyron Williams, who we know is going to be in a two-back committee, Josh Jacobs, who
5:57there's some concerns about, so I can't put him any lower than where I have him.
6:02But the guys above him, I'm just more certain, are going to have that workhorse role, and there's less uncertainty around them.
6:08So maybe more uncertainty with Hampton. When you just strictly think about the ceiling, do you think an RB3 season is in
6:14his possible outcomes, or is there a cap to what you think the ceiling could be?
6:19Because you think about this ascending offense that everybody's really excited about with Mike McDaniel paired with Justin Herbert.
6:24Theoretically a healthier offensive line, although with Tyler Biotish, obviously that's already starting off not so great.
6:29This is a first-round pick, a lot of talent, a lot of pedigree here, Nathan.
6:33So do you think in a best-case scenario, the ceiling is a league-winner type of pick in the second round, or is
6:40it more just you're comfortable with this pick, but you're not quite sure on the ceiling?
6:44I do think that's where his ceiling is because he was a very highly sought-of running back coming out of college.
6:50We know he's a very good player. The Chargers offense is one that we, for years, have known has had the potential,
6:56and now they have a different offensive coordinator that's more pass-heavy.
7:00There's always been the injuries, so maybe this is the year that outside of center, hopefully there's fewer injuries in the offense in general.
7:06Hopefully they're among the league leaders in points scored, and hopefully he's as good of a player as we think he is.
7:13So I think there is that case where he can be that RB3, but I also think there's that case where this could be a three-back committee.
7:20We could see Vidal in there as well. We could see Mitchell taking a lot of the big runs and Hampton only
7:27getting some of the dirty work in there. So there's also that really bad case, which is why he's not ranked up there at RB3.
7:34Eric, so what do you think is the true upside?
7:37I'll frame it to you like this. Best case scenario, where do you think we're drafting O'Marion Hampton a year from now?
7:43It's funny that you ask that because I remember doing shows last year talking about who could we be drafting in round
7:49one in 2026, and O'Marion Hampton was one of the guys that I remember talking about, him and Ashton Genting.
7:55Now, obviously, a couple things have played out where now neither guy is probably going to be a first-round pick when the
8:01dust settles on the 2026 redraft season, but I think that he has top three upside.
8:06Again, Keaton Mitchell is a concern, but he's also already banged up.
8:09Like, that's been Keaton Mitchell's kind of MO where this guy, we want to give him more volume, but every time it
8:15seems like teams give him more opportunities, he can't handle that.
8:19So if he is really more regulated too, it's that three to five touches, some scheme ones, again, running routes downfield, running routes out of the slot.
8:26He can have thrive in those types of scenarios, but when it comes to who's getting the majority of carries, touches, I
8:32think the key with Hampton is touchdowns. Like, that's really his biggest path, I think, to him having a monster top five type of season.
8:40You can talk about it earlier, like, he was one of my favorite long shots in terms of leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
8:46We saw Austin Eckhart have monster seasons with Justin Herbert, averaging 19 touchdowns per year when he was a fantasy RB2 for two straight seasons.
8:54He also caught a ton of passes, and that's part of O'Meara and Hampton's game that I think is really underrated.
9:00If you look at last year, he played four games with at least five or more catches, seventh in receptions per game at 3.6.
9:06So when you look at touchdown upside, is there, you look at receiving upside, is there, Galvin's environment is really good.
9:12It's just about, okay, can the player deliver? And that's kind of like the big question mark.
9:17Again, the draft pedigree would suggest, hey, this guy is good at football, he can deliver.
9:22And last year was more of an incomplete because he did get banged up.
9:26And when he was thrown back into the offense, again, there was nobody left blocking for him.
9:31So it was really tough. Although some of the advanced metrics do paint him in a pretty positive light.
9:36Seventh, or I mentioned seventh in receptions per game, but PFF ranked him eighth base, eighth best graded rusher, 11th in yards after contact for attempt at 3.34.
9:44So yeah, I mean, I am trying to paint more of the optimistic pitcher with O'Meara and Hampton, especially middle of round two.
9:51We've seen his offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel, have two very strong running backs in the same offense before, very productive for fantasy
9:57a couple of years ago in Miami. Let's go to one of those guys.
10:01Devon A. Chan And is the next player that you have on this list.
10:05So we're going from the guy who has Mike McDaniel.
10:08Now it's the guy who used to have Mike McDaniel calling plays.
10:11ECR RB eight, 16th overall, real-time ADP RB nine, 16th overall.
10:14So lining up with ECR there, Erickson. Yeah, I actually have him in Hampton ranked back to back.
10:19And I kind of struggle with trying to figure out which guy I like more.
10:24Cause I do think that HN, although playing in Miami's offense is way less fun to talk about, cause we don't know how good it's going to be.
10:32It could be a bottom five off. The Leafs could be absolutely terrible.
10:35So that's like the risk when it comes to HN, but you look at HN, he's been a top five fan.
10:41He's running back, back to back seasons. You know, he's a guy that's entering his Uber prime and he's done it in so many different ways.
10:49He's done it with Uber efficiency. He's done it with catching passes out of the backfield.
10:53And I think that I wrote off HN earlier in the off season, you know, citing that, okay, it's Malik Willis is
10:59a mobile quarterback, but you know, one of the first articles I ever wrote at that PFF was how do mobile quarterbacks
11:06influence running backs in the passing game. And one of my main takeaways from that article was yes, it does impact them
11:12in a negative way, but in terms of their bottom line, if you are a bell cow in your backfield, you can
11:18make up for the loss of whatever receptions targets are being taken away from the offense more likely than not.
11:24And really it turns into like one point per game, one and a half points per game and full PPR in half
11:30PPR, one point per game in terms of projecting Malik Willis as a Russian quarterback and how it's going to impact HN
11:37in this office from in terms of how much volume he's going to see, because again, he could be the number one receiver on this offense.
11:44And I don't think that would shock anybody just based on who they're trotting out there.
11:48I know I love Greg Dulcich. Like he's going to be tight end one this year, but the most established receiver is a champ.
11:55And I think the bull case for him is a 2022 version of Saquon Barkley, where Barkley was RB six that season,
12:02who was his quarterback, Daniel Jones and Daniel Jones was a top four quarterback rusher across the board and yards, attempts, scrambles and scramble yards.
12:09He, it was Daniel Jones best season as a rusher at the quarterback position.
12:13And Barkley still led the giants in targets during the regular season.
12:16So there is a, again, a bull case for HN where because of the talent profile that he has, his three down
12:22skillset, his head coach is talking about like, dude, we're going to have to drag you off the field because you're going
12:29to get so many touches and carries in this offense.
12:31So maybe he breaks down and can't survive the season, but I think we can be looking at a player.
12:37It's easily 20 touches per game overall. And that's hard to find in the middle of round two, most times with the discover cash back card.
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15:21Nathan, when you think about Devon A. Chan, I mean, even just comparing him to American Hampton, right?
15:26It's volume versus the actual offense you're in and the environment you have.
15:30I think like everything Erickson just said makes a lot of sense.
15:33And then I look at like the Chargers, which is an offense I'm like dying to invest in and so excited about.
15:40And like Herbert is like a dark horse MVP candidate.
15:42All this fun stuff seems like it could be one of the like defining stories of the season if it all goes
15:49well versus Miami, which is like borderline actively tanking here.
15:51So you just think about the touchdown opportunity. So what do you weigh more, Nathan?
15:56And you think about this, the touchdown opportunity in a, you know, again, an offense that we want to believe in or
16:02just the pure volume we're going to see from an explosive player in A.
16:06Chan. Um, in this case, I'm leaning both his volume and his talent.
16:10I think if he was in another offense, he'd be have a case for the number one overall pick.
16:15I think talent wise, he's as good as Gibbs or good as Bijan Robinson.
16:19It's just the situation that he's been in of being in Miami who hasn't had a good offensive line the entire time he's been there.
16:26So that's no different from what he's had before.
16:29He's had to deal with that where those guys have great offensive linemen.
16:32So I think we've seen a Chan and good offenses before we've seen him and bad offenses before the offense last year,
16:39I don't think was all that great. I think the biggest thing that's different this year is the quarterback situation, but I
16:45think they will throw to him more on design plays more than we've seen in the past.
16:50We might see fewer dump offs because the quarterback scrambling, but I think that'll even out a bit.
16:55So I think his receiving will be fine. And I think he'll be able to make enough big plays to score touchdowns.
17:01So because I could see him easily leading the league in touches, because I don't think they're going to have, like, I
17:08don't think Detroit's going to have to force Jameer Gibbs to be among the league leaders and touches this year.
17:13Atlanta, maybe with Bijan Robinson, but Miami, like you said, he's going to be touching the ball at least 20 times per
17:20game, because that's the one offensive weapon that Miami has.
17:22And he's been able to deal with bad offenses before.
17:25So I'm fine picking him late first round. I have him as my RB six overall.
17:30So I think, yeah, there's the opportunity or possibility that he suffers an injury and that could happen to any running back though.
17:36So, or any running back with a lot of volume in particular.
17:40So I'm still happy to get him. I think he's going to have a great season.
17:44Well, I think you already answered the next question I was going to ask, which is if you look at real time
17:51ADP, there are four running backs right in a row here in the early to mid part of round two.
17:56It's Devon, HN, Derek Henry, Kenneth Walker, O'Marion Hampton.
17:59That's from about picks 15 to 18. Sounds like HN would be your favorite of that group.
18:04Do you like guys like Henry and Walker more than O'Marion Hampton?
18:07Nathan, how would you kind of shake out that group?
18:10Cause I think that's a decision. Anybody who wants to take a running back in that range, you're going to have multiple options.
18:16Oh yeah. So I'll take HN above all those guys that we just talked about.
18:21I have him above Barkley. I have him above Chase Brown.
18:24I'd probably take those guys as well as Walker.
18:26I had a vote. O'Marion Hampton, but I think HN just the volume.
18:30I'd also add with Bobby Sloak as offensive coordinator, we saw how much he was getting Joe Mixon the ball when Joe Mixon was healthy.
18:37That's another reason why I think they're just going to give him boss so much.
18:42Erickson for you, HN, Henry Walker Hampton in that kind of group of players.
18:46What do you think? Walker's the one I'd like the most.
18:49That's who I would bet on. I think he can leave the NFL in rushing yards this year.
18:54I think that the cat's out of the bag with him where he's going to get unleashed.
18:59Finally, like something that we've just been begging for teams to do, and maybe he can't handle the workload and ultimately it burns us.
19:05But if he can hold up, he has a three down skill set.
19:09We know we can catch passes out of the backfield.
19:12Super, super explosive. I mean, he's the perfect fit in this chief's office.
19:16And every show that we've done, we've talked about Kenneth Walker.
19:19I get this feeling that in hindsight, we're going to look back at this season and think, God, Kenneth Walker to the
19:25chiefs was so obviously smash pick and such a smash side because it was exactly what they needed to get this offense
19:31off the ground and out of purgatory that it's been over the last couple of years, but they just really haven't been fun to watch.
19:39Let's make the chief's offense fun to watch. And again, and I think that's going to start with Ken Walker having a monster year.
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20:03That's fantasypros.com slash free. All right, guys, let's get to a couple of receivers here that Erickson is struggling to rank.
20:09Erickson, who's your first guy here? It's gotta be Rashi Rice, right?
20:12A player that I don't think you can do a polarizing list of players for this season and not have him on
20:18there because you could see cases where, yeah, he should be a top five wide receiver because when he played last year,
20:25that's what his points per game was. He was a top five fantasy wide receiver.
20:29And then you have him down here, I believe.
20:32So ECR has him at wide receiver 13. The last time I checked real time ADP, he was wide wide receiver 16.
20:38That's still what it is. I have it up right here.
20:41And that doesn't really shock me because when you're in the draft board and you see Rashi Rice's name available to you, it's a hard click to make.
20:49Even if you're a bull on rice and what he can do talent wise and what his on the field production, because
20:55of all the off field stuff, because he's coming off of the injury, he was rehabbing in jail.
21:00So there's a lot of factors to play at Rashi Rice.
21:03I'm leaning towards kind of scooping up the value though, because I'm just kind of looking at look, seventh overall in red
21:10zone targets last year, he played eight games. He was seventh overall second in red zone targets per game.
21:15And I know I've talked about this when you're trying to find that number one wide receiver overall, that guy's usually been
21:21accompanied by whoever leads the NFL and red zone targets.
21:24And maybe it's not as much red zone volume for Rashi Rice because of Ken Walker taking on a bigger role in the chiefs offense.
21:31But I think that it's still pretty clear that Patrick Mahomes goes to Rashi Rice when they get close to scoring and
21:38even reading some of the training camp before it's like, Oh, touchdown for Rashi Rice in the red zone for Patrick Mahomes.
21:44So I still think the upside is there for him to be a top five fantasy wide receiver.
21:49And the fact that you're not getting that wide receiver 16, I think that's ultimately where I settle on Rashi Rice, but
21:55I'm interested to hear what Nathan has to say about a pretty polarizing guy like Rice.
22:00Yeah. Rice is someone that throughout his career, I was high on this year.
22:04I'm lower on him. I have him as wide receiver 19 for this year.
22:08First off, all the great things you were saying about Walker before with Devin HN that applies here.
22:13I think Walker is going to be running the ball a ton for Kansas city this year.
22:18I don't think they will be nearly as pass heavy as they have in the past.
22:22And especially in the red zone where they have been extremely pass heavy relative to the rest of the league.
22:28I don't think that'll be the case this year now that they have Walker.
22:32So I think the volume won't be there as much for Rice.
22:35And I think the change in offensive coordinator will also play a role here.
22:39I think we'll see something more similar to what we've seen from Eric Bianemi in the past with Kansas city, where all
22:46of the wide receivers had more middle of the range, average depth of targets where Rashi Rice has been someone who there's
22:52a general correlation between how good a wide receiver is and how good his fantasy value is.
22:57There's obviously a ton of variables in there, but Rice is kind of at an extreme where a PFF grades haven't been
23:03as high compared to other wide receivers who have been extremely good in fantasy.
23:07It's because he's been getting those low average depth of targets that we don't see as much from other wide receivers.
23:13And I think his average depth of target will be higher this year in this new offense.
23:18And I don't know how he will adjust to that.
23:21I also know he is close to in store for a new contract and I don't know if Kansas city wants to give it to him.
23:28And we also saw last year that they built this offense around rice and it didn't really work.
23:33They didn't make the playoffs, even though they're an offense with Patrick Mahomes.
23:37So I don't think they'll want to do the same thing they did last year because it wasn't working for them.
23:43I also, Xavier worthy. I trust last year that it was a shoulder issue that caused him to not play as well as we think he can play.
23:51So I think where they will be more involved.
23:53And then Cyrus Allen, another guy that we've been high on in general, we saw the training camp clips early in training camp.
24:00I think things have slowed down a little bit for him, but he's been playing in the slot throughout the preseason and that's where Rishi Rice plays.
24:08So if Allen's going to see any playing time, it's going to be at the expense of rice.
24:13Erickson, I want to get to the next player, but before I do, I just have to ask because they are back
24:19to back in real time ADP at the position, Rishi Rice and your boy, Zay Flowers that you have talked about in a lot of shows.
24:27Who would you rather draft right now? Is it the guy you've been touting a lot of shows with me in flowers
24:33or is the red zone usage and just, you know, the chiefs offensive at all enough for you to lean to rice there?
24:39And this one's so tough for me because I think my rankings still have Rishi rice ahead.
24:44Cause I am leaning more into the fact that he was still projected to be the chiefs number one wide receiver.
24:50And he does get red zone targets, which they flowers till this point still has not really gotten.
24:55And I know that's me projecting, but it feels so just gross to say that because I love Zay Flowers so much,
25:02but right now I have my rankings. I have rice ahead.
25:05So let's get the changes. You got one more receiver here for us, Luther bird, and I'll just spoil it for you.
25:11And then the reason I want to bring him up is there.
25:14If you look at expert consensus rankings, the fantasy pros.com slash rankings.
25:18One of the columns you can see is standard deviation, basically like how, you know, spread out these rankings are.
25:23And, and it's a, it's a good exercise really for a segment like this, where we're trying to talk about polarizing players
25:30that are kind of all over the place. And he has one of the larger standard deviations on our tracking system of
25:36any of the receivers in this range. So I think it's a great pick by you, Erickson for this section, a wide receiver 24 in ECR.
25:43If you look at ADP, I had it up a second ago.
25:47He's at about 55th overall, again, wide receiver 24.
25:49Where are you at? You know, I want to throw it to Nathan first, because he's going to spin the positive for Luther bird.
25:56And I don't, I don't want to rain on anyone's parade.
25:59I'll do it. I'll save that for the end.
26:02So take it away, Nathan. There. Yeah, I am high on him.
26:05I have him as my wide receiver 17. I really liked what I saw out of him in his rookie season, a
26:1277.7 PFF grade, 2.69 yards per run, third best for wide receivers.
26:15A lot of times when a player is playing in a smaller role at wide receiver in the rookie season, it's often
26:21in a particular role, whether it's the slot in 11 personnel or a different spot in 11 personnel, maybe only playing in
26:2812 personnel, but for burden, they were playing him in all over the place in different situations, just not as high on
26:34the depth chart as some of the other wide receivers.
26:37So we were seeing him sometimes in 11 personnel.
26:39We were seeing him in 12 personnel. We've seen him in the slot.
26:43We've seen him out wide. We've even seen him in 13 personnel and where he really excelled was 12 personnel where he averaged 6.51 yards per run.
26:51And that's where Chicago is going to live this year.
26:54I know a big concern people have around him is the competition for targets.
26:58Colson Loveland's also great. Roma Dunze, hopefully healthier this year.
27:00I think he'll also have a good season, but I think it's fine to have three good receivers when there's not much else to throw to.
27:08Philadelphia comes to mind with AJ Brown, Devante Smith, and Dallas Goddard in recent seasons.
27:12We've seen all three of them be fine for fantasy relative to their talent.
27:16And then it's just been Jahan Dotson at the bottom of the league in terms of target share each season.
27:22And also not as many targets to the running backs.
27:25And I can see that in Chicago. I don't think they're going to throw too much to any of their other options outside of these three players.
27:32So I think all three of these players can do fine relative to their ADP.
27:37And then I know there's the injury and hopefully he's okay.
27:40But from what I've heard, it sounds like he should be fine for week one and beyond.
27:45But there's always a chance that that injury lingers on.
27:47And then I end up not doing so well with all my burden shares.
27:51Erickson, I was going to let you be the rain first.
27:54And then Nathan could be the rainbow coming in afterwards.
27:57Instead, you want to let him have his parade and then come rain on it.
28:02Yes, exactly. You better have an umbrella ready, Nathan.
28:04So burden to me, I am out on this year at his cost at ECR ADP wide receiver 24.
28:10I prefer Roma Dunze. Like if I'm going to make a bet on a Bears wide receiver, I'm actually going with the Dunze.
28:16And we've kind of seen their ADPs kind of converge a little bit because of the injury that Luther Burden is playing through.
28:23They scroing injury. I think that's opened up opportunities for Roma Dunze to establish even more chemistry and rapport with Caleb Williams.
28:29Because through two years, it really hasn't been there for those two players.
28:33They are not always on the same page, especially when Caleb Williams has been throwing the ball down the field.
28:38But to me, that just screams, okay, some positive regression is going to come.
28:42Eventually, they're going to cash in on some of these big plays.
28:46And that's when you can see Roma Dunze having a monster season.
28:49I looked at this when I was identifying first-year players to become wide receiver ones for the very first time.
28:55Year three. That is the big year. 33% of wide receivers become wide receiver ones for the first time in their third season.
29:01Rome is built in year three. So I'm bullish on Rome to take a big step, especially what he did at the
29:08beginning of last year before his foot injury. His foot looks like it's going to be good to go.
29:13And then with Burden, I get concerned about what's his touchdown upside.
29:17Because when I look at he had four red zone targets last year, he didn't really have a massive role in that
29:23offense, even when he was being used in more efficient ways around the formation.
29:27I think he's going to take a backseat to Loveland and Dunze in the red zone, even if they're all seeing a lot of volume.
29:34Because I do think that all three guys can put up yardage and catches because of how bad this Bears defense is going to be.
29:41I think from a touchdown standpoint, I think that Burden is going to be at least third in the pecking order, maybe
29:47even fourth behind the running backs as well. So I think that kind of makes me feel a bit safer about potentially fading Luther Burden.
29:54And going back to the price, I've done some studies in terms of just like identifying wide receiver busts based on ADP.
30:01And the very common thread for that is it's the player going drafted the highest without the actual production to back it up.
30:07I mean, last year, Luther Burden, again, great efficiency marks on a smaller sample size.
30:12He was still wide receiver 48. And now he's going as wide.
30:15I mean, he finishes wide receiver 24. Then that's a dramatic improvement from what he did as a rookie.
30:20But you feel like it's a disappointment because of where you drafted him and what the expectations were.
30:25So systematically speaking, that kind of removes Burden from my draft board for the most part.
30:30And I'm just much more interested in some of those other Bears players, especially with a Dunes as times going after Luther Burden.
30:37Quick note before we get to some audience Q&A.
30:39Stay ahead of your league with real-time ADP. I've been mentioning it throughout this segment.
30:43Unlike traditional ADP, it quickly detects shifts in where players are being selected.
30:47So you see where they're being drafted now, not yesterday.
30:50Get the most up-to-date ADP on draft day at fantasypros.com slash real ADP.
30:54You can see on that graphic, too. You've got the trends in the last 24 hours, trends in the last week.
31:00It's really helpful. I would strongly recommend it for anybody checking any sort of ADP listing.
31:04Let's see if we can squeeze in some speed round Q&A here before we get to the next segment.
31:10Nathan, I'll start with you. What do you think about Dijon Stribble?
31:13I think he's going to have a great season.
31:16I think I was high on him when he got drafted as well.
31:19But I think with San Francisco, they have so many of the older wide receivers.
31:24I know they're already dealing with injuries, but they rotate their wide receivers a lot to begin with.
31:29They don't want their wide receivers as much in those two wide receiver sets.
31:33So I think whether or not he's a starter, he's going to see plenty of playing time and could very well be
31:39the top wide receiver for San Francisco this year.
31:42Erickson, can Alave be a top 12 receiver this year?
31:44Yes, definitely. I mean, he was a top 12 wide receiver last season.
31:48He has really no elite target competition besides like Jawan Johnson.
31:51Now that Jordan Tyson is sidelined with his hamstring injury, and we don't know when Tyson's going to come back.
31:57I had to move Alave up the rankings after he got the announcement of Tyson missing at least a month of the regular season, if not more.
32:05And he plays the Lions in week one. Like Chris Alave, 30-burger loading is going to happen.
32:09And so if you draft him, you're going to feel really good about week one.
32:14Nathan, if you have the 101 in a 10-team PPR draft, would you rather Bowers at the 2-3 turn, Loveland at the 4-5 turn, or neither?
32:21I'm probably going neither. I like some of the later tight ends, Tucker Kraft, George Kittle.
32:26I think they aren't going high enough considering their injuries, but they should be ready for week one.
32:31So I'm happy to get those veteran tight ends a little later.
32:34Erickson, what do you think about this one? Same question.
32:37I think Loveland at the 4-5 turn is probably the one I'm interested in the most.
32:42And I'm glad that they specified 10-team PPR. I think that's where you get more bang for your buck going with that
32:48elite tight end in this specific scoring format versus like a 12-team standard league.
32:52Having that elite tight end rack up a bunch of receptions, that doesn't help you.
32:56Because one of these late-round tight ends can just catch a touchdown and they outscore your elite tight end because of the
33:02way the scoring format is set up. I totally agree.
33:05Let's do one more for this segment here. I find out a lot of mocks I have to choose between Christian Watson
33:12and Parker Washington because it's hard to get both with where they're going.
33:15Who would you guys take in PPR? Erickson, who do you prefer between Watson and Parker Washington?
33:20I'll take Christian Watson. Nathan? I'll go Parker Washington.
33:23All right. So we're going head to head there.
33:25We'll go ahead and wrap up the segment here.
33:28Don't go anywhere. We've got league winners and sleeper stacks coming up here in just a minute with Tara Roberts joining us.
33:34Nathan, thank you so much for coming on to Fantasy Fest 2026.
33:37And like I said, don't go anywhere. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
33:42If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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34:34On August 4th, 1962, Marilyn Monroe died. Then the rumors started and she died again.
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34:44The third way. I'm Jake Brennan. And on my podcast, Hollywoodland, I revisit some of the biggest stories from Hollywood history.
34:50Separating the myths people want to believe from the reality underneath them.
34:53Hollywoodland is part of the Exactly Right Network. Listen to new episodes every Monday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
35:00In February of 2024, celebrated illustrator and children's book author Petra Mathers and her husband Michael mailed letters to dozens of friends
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