The 13 Unwritten Rules of Winning Your 2026 Fantasy Draft | Advanced Roster Construction Strategy (Ep. 2088)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
50 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 14, 2026
Published
Tue, July 14, 2026
46
Player insights
44
Players mentioned
Topics
Jonathon BrooksTerrance FergusonAntonio WilliamsBaker MayfieldBijan RobinsonBo NixBreece HallBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersBrock PurdyCam AkersCam WardCarnell TateChase Brown
Player analysis
Player insights
Antonio Williams
NegativeValue0:24
Williams is used as an example of a player whose ADP has climbed due to group think and hype; by August he could be a seventh-round pick, meaning you're buying all the risk and he needs to hit his ceiling just to get equitable value.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveValue0:26
Mayfield is listed as a late-round quarterback option (QB19) with history of top-12 production; going outside the top 90 in ADP provides excellent value.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveValue0:10
Derek Brown targets Bijan Robinson (Basial Tootin) in round five as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveValue0:26
Nix is highlighted as a late-round quarterback with upside; going outside the top 90 in ADP with either history of production or rushing upside to carry him into the top 7-12 quarterbacks.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveValue0:02
Derek Brown targets Breece Hall in round three as a running back to catch up on if starting with two wide receivers, positioning him as a value option in that range.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveRole0:43
Used as an example in a narrative-building exercise where Jacoby Myers could see increased opportunity if Thomas gets injured.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection0:11
Ryan Warmly believes Brock Bowers will return first-round value this year and could be one of the defining players of fantasy this season, with the Raiders expected to pepper him with targets.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue0:26
Purdy is listed as a late-round quarterback option (QB12) with history of top-12 production or rushing upside; going outside the top 90 in ADP provides excellent value.
Insight pageCam Akers
PositiveValue0:07
Derek Brown targets Cam Akers (Scadaboo) in round four as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Insight pageCam Ward
PositiveValue0:29
Ward is mentioned as a late-round quarterback option (QB24) in year two with upside potential; going late enough to provide value.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveBreakout0:21
Tate is highlighted as a middle-round upside swing candidate who could be a clear wide receiver one; has shown flashes but hasn't put together a full season yet.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveRole0:34
Brown is used as an example when discussing whether to stack multiple players from the same offense; if already drafted, the question becomes whether to add another Bengal.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout0:21
Watson is highlighted as a middle-round upside swing candidate who has shown flashes but hasn't put together a full season yet; if his upside hits, he can be a difference maker in your lineup.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection0:09
Derek Brown identifies Colston Loveland as one of three tight ends (alongside Bowers and Warren) he considers true league-winning difference makers in the early rounds.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveValue0:10
Derek Brown targets DeAndre Swift in round five as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveValue0:29
Prescott is available as QB10, providing value as a top-tier quarterback option without needing to reach early.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
PositiveSleeper0:10
Derek Brown and Ryan Warmly both like Dallas Goedert as a late-round tight end target outside the top 12 at the position.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveValue0:16
Jake Seeley is now willing to invest in Dalton Kincaid after avoiding him the past two years, as he stays healthy and the Bills offense potentially changes.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue0:07
Derek Brown targets David Montgomery in round four as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeValue0:18
Ryan Warmly states he will not be drafting George Kittle at tight end ten, avoiding the middle-tier tight end pricing.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
PositiveSleeper0:10
Derek Brown loves Greg Dulcich as a late-round tight end target, and Jake Seeley also mentions him as a deep sleeper worth considering.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveSleeper0:10
Derek Brown loves Isaiah Likely as a late-round tight end target, and Jake Seeley has him ranked as a top-10 tight end despite his current ADP.
Insight pageJake Ferguson
PositiveSleeper0:10
Derek Brown loves Jake Ferguson as a late-round tight end target, positioning him as an undervalued option.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection0:28
Hurts is mentioned as a potential tier-one quarterback option (possibly QB5 or QB6) if there's value at that ADP; could be taken in round 5-6 depending on league tendencies.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue0:02
Derek Brown targets Javante Williams in round three as a running back to catch up on if starting with two wide receivers, positioning him as a value option in that range.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveValue0:25
Brooks is liked as a mid-RB3 at his current ADP, but the analyst would be out if his ADP climbs to RB20 due to hype-driven risk inflation.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:43
If healthy at 100%, Brooks would likely take over the backfield due to his talent, representing a credible narrative for late-round upside.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveValue0:26
Love is highlighted as a late-round quarterback option with history of top-12 production; going outside the top 90 in ADP.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveValue0:29
Herbert is available late (7th-9th round) as a quarterback option with value if top-tier quarterbacks are taken early.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeMatchup0:33
Jefferson's season was negatively impacted by poor quarterback play from JJ McCarthy last year, illustrating how quarterback quality affects receiver production.
Insight pageKhalil Shakir
NegativeBust0:44
Jake states there is no credible scenario where Khalil Shakir reaches top-15 wide receiver status, explicitly saying 'don't draft him.'
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeValue0:09
Derek Brown avoids the middle-class of tight ends including Kyle Pitts, preferring to either get elite options early or punt to late-round targets.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveRole0:38
Host uses Lamar Jackson as an example of a player worth targeting in draft if you have conviction, noting he would want to have Lamar in one of his leagues as a Ravens fan.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveValue0:26
Willis is highlighted as a late-round quarterback option (QB21) with rushing upside; going outside the top 90 in ADP provides excellent value.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveSleeper0:15
Ryan Warmly loves Mark Andrews this year as a late-round tight end target outside the top 12 at the position.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
PositiveValue0:29
Stafford is mentioned as a late-round quarterback option who was awesome last year; available late with upside.
Insight pageNicholas Singleton
PositiveRole0:43
Discussed as a potential narrative play where if other running backs underperform, Singleton could take over the backfield due to talent or injury to competitors.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout0:21
Washington is mentioned as a middle-round upside swing candidate with flashes shown but hasn't put together a full season; if upside hits, he can be a difference maker.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeValue0:09
Derek Brown avoids the middle-class of tight ends including Sam Laporta, preferring to either get elite options early or punt to late-round targets.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveSleeper0:16
Jake Seeley mentions Terrence Ferguson as a deep sleeper for the Rams where there's a world he ends up getting the third most targets for the team.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:25
Ferguson is liked because he's going late with minimal hype, meaning you're not buying inflated ADP risk; if he hits, it's a bonus rather than a requirement.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
NegativeValue0:14
Ryan Warmly states he will not be drafting Travis Kelce at tight end nine, avoiding the middle-tier tight end pricing.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveValue0:29
Lawrence is highlighted as a late-round quarterback option with value; was QB1 or QB2 in the second half of last season.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeValue0:10
Derek Brown is out on Trey McBride at his current ADP (21st overall), preferring to pay up for Brock Bowers instead due to concerns about McBride's variance and the likelihood of repeating his outlier 2024 production.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeInjury0:09
Derek Brown avoids the middle-class of tight ends including Tucker Kraft, who is coming off an ACL injury.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveProjection0:09
Derek Brown identifies Tyler Warren as one of three tight ends (alongside Bowers and Loveland) he considers true league-winning difference makers, available in the fourth or fifth round.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello everybody, welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:03I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Derek Brown and by Jake Seeley from The Athletic.
0:06Lots of shows together this week, guys, so I feel like I've seen you a bunch.
0:10I already know that you guys are doing well.
0:13You guys already know that I wasn't doing well, but doing a little bit better now that I got a portable AC unit in my house.
0:20I could survive the heat a little bit better.
0:22It was 87 degrees last night. We already talked about this yesterday, so I won't bore anybody with any more details.
0:27It was a struggle though, so thankfully doing a little bit better now that I have a temporary portable AC unit here.
0:33Today, we are talking about some unwritten rules to winning 2026 drafts, although I guess they are now written because we wrote them down into the sheet.
0:40But generally, just kind of rules that we want to live by when drafting this year.
0:44Less about specific players and more about just general approaches and philosophies and like I said, rules we want to kind of abide by.
0:50Reminder for everybody, all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at FantasyPros.com slash rankings.
0:55We've broken this down by different stages of the draft, so we have a couple for the early rounds, a couple for
1:01the mid-20s, into late rounds, and then sort of one golden rule that we don't want to get off of.
1:06You guys have two for each of these. I have one for each of these, so we've got a lot to get through.
1:12We'll go ahead and start right now. Derek Brown, what is your first tip for the early rounds?
1:17Man, I think like especially in the year of our Lord where running back, running back is the premier start for a
1:22lot of people because the age of the running back is back.
1:26My first rule is you can walk out of the first five rounds with only two running backs.
1:30Now, and a lot of, and again, when we give these blanket kind of rules, a lot of people are like, that's not actionable.
1:37Like, what am I supposed to do with that?
1:39Like, I understand a lot of people are going to start their drafts running back, running back, but I think it's just
1:45as feasible to start with two wide receivers. I know that's blasphemy this year, and everybody is all in on running backs,
1:50but if you're going to start out with two wide receivers, I think it's possible and easy to catch up at running
1:56backs in rounds three through five, or go premium tight end, like wide receiver, wide receiver, and then tight end.
2:01And I'll even give you some targets. In round three, the two guys I'd be targeting, Brees Hall and Javante Williams.
2:07Round four, Cam Scadaboo and David Montgomery. Round five, DeAndre Swift and Basial Tootin.
2:10And I think that looking at different team builds and being flexible to the room while also addressing running back is paramount.
2:16Yeah, Jake, what do you think about this? When you're thinking about the early rounds, how much are you thinking specifically about,
2:22I want to hit these positions, I want to hit two running backs, or one, or zero, or I want to get X number of receivers.
2:29Positionally, what's your thought in these early rounds as you build out the foundations of your team?
2:33Yeah, I couldn't agree more, and I don't want to say I hate this question because I hate, like, I don't want you to ask me this.
2:40Not you, the people listening. It's not that I hate that you asked me this.
2:44I hate it because of where your thought process is going when people say, hey, I plan to take blank and blank in the first two rounds.
2:51What should I do in round three? And that's the reason I hate it is because you're doing yourself a disservice.
2:56You don't know how the draft is going to fall to you.
3:00And by having what Derek Brown is talking about, too, is like a predetermined strategy of like, I got to get my running back in round three.
3:07And then you throw away potential huge value on the board because you had this preset strategy of like what you need
3:12to do, how you expected the draft to fall.
3:15And I feel like that's one of the biggest traps people will see.
3:18And like, you know, for people who might be QB early, which is OK, but they're like, oh, I need to go.
3:24And I look at drafts and people send me this in like, hey, week one, I'm struggling.
3:28I'm like, what what rounds did you did you skip the first two rounds?
3:32And I'm not saying like, again, I'm not trying to be a jerk.
3:35It's just it's because they went in with a strategy.
3:38They overdrafted a running back. They overdrafted a quarterback.
3:40And then by the time you get to it, you actually have no values on your roster.
3:45Yeah. And I do agree with you. I asked the question because I know it's something that it's a question I get a lot from, you know, listeners.
3:52Obviously, you do, too, which is why I asked it to you.
3:55But I'm very much on the same page with you as I don't like things through that mindset.
4:00Oh, I will say, you know, I was planning to do my tip in each of these sections at the end.
4:05I'm actually going to do mine for this early rounds now because it ties in a little.
4:10But mine is wide receiver isn't as deep as its reputation.
4:12So get some building blocks early. It's not as specific as you need to get X number of receivers in X number
4:18of early rounds, but more just don't go in thinking, well, wide receiver is always crazy deep.
4:23It's never not deep. And it is deep. I just don't think it's quite as deep as like its reputation would suggest.
4:28So I want to make sure I have some some building blocks early there.
4:32And that's obviously going to apply in these early rounds.
4:35I don't I don't want to put a specific number to it, Jake, or a specific round to it.
4:39But I don't want to come out of these early rounds feeling like I'm oh, it doesn't matter if I'm really weak
4:45at receiver because I can just catch up later.
4:48I don't think it's as feasible as people maybe talk about it to be.
4:51What do you think about that, Jake? I completely agree.
4:54And I'm not going to go much further because I'll let Debra talk because you're I'm really trying not to spill into mine.
5:00And there's so much like it really ties into everything we're saying so far.
5:03So like I'll let Debra go a little bit further.
5:06I'm saving a little bit of my what I want to talk about.
5:09Totally fair. Yeah, I mean, I agree with both you guys.
5:12And the thing about with wide receiver and I really want to highlight here is that and my point I could have easily just been safe.
5:19Stay fluid, stay flexible, whatever. But I wanted to send it around the running backs because that is what everybody is just
5:25really, really glowing on to this year. But with wide receivers, we always talk about volume.
5:29Volume is earned wide receivers like you're not going to find a guy in the later rounds that's going to earn a
5:3527 percent target share, even if like the entire offense gets hurt around him.
5:38Like that's just not how that works. Like you can have an offense disintegrate around a wide receiver and that guy still
5:44might in the best of circumstances only be an 18 or 20 percent target share player.
5:48So to Warmly's point, if you want elite target share earners, you're going to have to pay up for them.
5:53You're not going to find them in round 10, round 12 or what have you.
5:57Yeah. So you agree, Debra, not just with the point about getting the building blocks at receiver early, but like that it
6:03is not maybe as deep as people talk about it to me.
6:06I mean, I'm looking like wide receiver 31 through 50.
6:09I like a lot of these names. I'm interested in taking some swings here, but there's going to be a lot of misses in this group as well.
6:16Like the certainty I feel like drops off earlier than people might realize.
6:19And because other people are going to take receivers early, I think it's going to dry up quickly, at least in terms
6:25of guys that you can feel really confident in.
6:27There are swings you want to take for sure that we are very happy to take as sleepers in the mid to late rounds.
6:34But foundationally as building blocks, I think you got to get them early.
6:37So I can jump into that point because I do agree.
6:40I think the last two years where we went from wide receivers so deep, that was why receiver was so deep because
6:46we were into the 30s with players still averaging 11, 12, 13 fancy points per game.
6:50The last two years, the shift has gone so far.
6:52And as we just saw with the real NFL draft, we're seeing how many teams are starting to move to two and
6:58even three tight end cents more frequently. And those wide receiver twos, not even threes, wide receiver twos have increased volatility now.
7:04And where they might have 11 or 12 fancy points per game, it's 16, 5, 16, 5.
7:08Like it's not what it used to be. And I think that being deep is different than the quality being deep.
7:14Jake, let's stick with you for your first tip in this range.
7:17Yeah. So really, like I said, it ties into all this.
7:20And it's that I think people overlook the fact that replacement value matters when you're drafting early because you are hopefully pivoting
7:25to how the draft is coming to you. But if you do, to Debro's point, start wide receiver, wide receiver, or even
7:31if you're at the top of the draft and you take Chase or Puka Nakua, JSN, I think too often people forget
7:37that, okay, JSN, Chase or Nakua, you are better than nine teams in your league to start at wide receiver.
7:42You're better. So you have an advantage, but then they wait and they wait and they wait and they wait and they
7:48get wide receiver two in the sixth round. And now you've just thrown, what was the point of taking those?
7:53You should have taken a running back because you're throwing your roster construction advantage out the window.
7:57So because the draft is going to make you adjust and pivot to what's happening, don't forget as you're doing that, you
8:03might need to adjust how you plan to build your roster.
8:06If you are, to Debro's point, you do go running back, running back, and you lean into that.
8:11Don't make your third running back all the way in the ninth round.
8:14We're like, well, I got two great running backs.
8:16And you wait until the ninth round and you got a bunch of also ran waiver wire quality because one dude gets
8:22hurt or the one dude on the buyer, whatever it might be, your advantage is out the window.
8:27And I think too many times people, similar to trying to predict, they just try to like, oh, this is good.
8:32This is good value, good value, good value, which is what you should be looking for.
8:36But don't forget where your advantage lies on your team.
8:39Debro, what do you think about that sort of pressing your advantage, you know, early on?
8:43Yeah. I mean, I fully agree with everything that Jake kind of laid out here.
8:47I mean, that's kind of like what the backbone of zero RB was kind of, you know, birthed on, was like, you've
8:53got this massive advantage of wide receivers. If you hit it running backs, now you're, you've got incredibly strong wide receivers that are carrying your team.
9:00You just need the variance to swing in your way.
9:02But again, going back to, that's the reason why, if those things happen, why you're crushing the rest of your league.
9:08Because you paid up for wide receivers, you're winning in the flex.
9:11You also are, you got a premium tight end or quarterback or what have you.
9:15So yeah, Jake's point is very sage. Debro, let's stick with you for your next tip in the early rounds.
9:20And by the way, we're talking early as like sort of the first five rounds is what we're looking at here when we say early.
9:26My tight end strategy is incredibly narrow this year, guys.
9:29And I know these, you know, I'm literally going to read off like three of the top four tight ends right now in ADP.
9:35But it's like, if I'm not getting Bowers, Loveland or Warren falling to me and I'm not reaching for them, I'm just punting wide receiver.
9:42I mean, a tight end for later rounds. I just do not care.
9:45Like, I'm not going to go for this middle class of tight ends of, you know, Tucker Kraft coming off an ACL, Kyle Pitts, Sam Laporta, Harold Fannin.
9:52Like, fine. If I'm not getting one of these three guys that I think could be true league winning difference makers in Bowers, Loveland or Warren this year.
10:00And yes, I'm kind of out on Trey McBride, then I'm just fine cobbling together, drafting two to three tight ends.
10:05The very late rounds of the draft. Like I love Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goddard, Jake Ferguson and Greg Dolson this year.
10:11I'll draft two or three of those guys later rounds.
10:13If I don't get my top three guys in the early rounds, totally fine.
10:17I want to talk about some of the late round options.
10:20But before we do, I do want to just ask about why not Trey McBride?
10:24I'm sure some folks have heard you talk about this on shows before.
10:27But, you know, we're in the middle of July.
10:29We probably have some new listeners kind of hopping and getting ready for the season.
10:33For those who haven't heard you talk about it.
10:36Why is it that when you look at tier one, it's four names, Bowers, McBride, Loveland and Warren in ECR.
10:41Why do you like three of them and not the fourth?
10:44It's a few different parts or pieces about Trey McBride.
10:46It is the variance of tight end, like just in the variance of the number one overall positional guy every single year.
10:52You are better trying to predict who is the guy that can take that crown the next year than saying last year's
10:58results will repeat and everything when McBride was such an outlier last year.
11:01The dude ran 160 more routes last year than the next closest tight end.
11:05Arizona was top like of the league and passing rate and all this kind of stuff.
11:09And it's like, could that happen again? Because they're still not a great team.
11:13Sure. But if the pace of play drops, if they run the ball more, if the quarterback play is terrible because, you
11:18know, Jacoby Brissett, we could say, okay, it was the garbage time king last year.
11:22But we have a different OC, a different head coach, a different situation.
11:26If Brissett isn't playing, if it's Carson Beck or Gardner freaking Minshew, the touchdown equity of McBride can fall.
11:31And I'm not expecting him to run 160 more freaking routes than the next closest tight end this year.
11:36I think that all makes a lot of sense.
11:38I will also say like, I just, even within this tier, I do see Bowers differently from the others.
11:43I'm with everybody on the hype of Loveland and I like Warren, but like, I'm not going to rank Brock Bowers as a first round player.
11:50I don't think you should take him there because you don't have to.
11:53I think he's, I would bet he returns first round value this year.
11:56Like I, I think they are going to pepper him with targets.
11:59He is, as long as he's healthy, he's so talented.
12:02I am really, really excited about Bowers. I think he could be one of the defining players of fantasy this season.
12:08So like I, I, he obviously belongs at the top.
12:10That's where he's ranked. Like, I think there's even a gap between him and the others personally.
12:15Uh, Jake, what's your approach to tight end? Is it sort of early or late?
12:18Are you more interested in some of these middle round guys, you know, Pitts or Laporta, uh, or do you have a similar approach to Debro?
12:25It's the same as Debro, a little different overall, but it's the same in the fact that it's the same as quarterbacks for me.
12:31I either want the top tier or I'm just going to wait till the end game because that middle group, it's not
12:37so much that top tier to the end game.
12:40It's the middle group to the end game that even the middle group of the players that do hit, there's a lot
12:45of end game players that hit very closely. 90, 95% of the production, potentially even better as we've seen throughout the years.
12:51There's always quarterbacks. It's like, man, I wish I would have had blank two or three quarterbacks Stafford last year, tight end,
12:57which would have blank two or three last year.
12:59And like, there's always options there. Granted, you might be the team.
13:02And I know the people that have had this happen to them hate it, but you might be the one that chases
13:08tight ends the entire year and you just never get that guy.
13:11And I understand that. And you hate to be like, oh, eight fancy points per game is all I could get out
13:17of my tight ends for the entire year. It's not a death knell to your team because it's tight end.
13:22You're two, maybe three fancy points behind, behind a top five option.
13:25I disagree with Debro and McBride only because I see even if he loses 20% of his production, he's still tight end three.
13:31And that's why I would still put him in the top tier.
13:34So it's not so much like, I'm not going to sit here and debate one because I do have Brock Bauer's number one, or even potentially two.
13:41I've mentioned my projections spat out Loveland at number one overall.
13:44And I was even shocked by that. So it's not even so much those guys.
13:48It's just, I would still have them in that top tier.
13:51So that's where we do agree, but we differ a little bit.
13:54It's just who our three are, but I am in lockstep with him.
13:57And the fact that I'm either drafting them early, same as quarterback, or I'm waiting until the end game.
14:02And Debra, you have McBride in your top tier.
14:05You just don't like him at cost as much as these other guys.
14:08Is that right? Or do you not even have him in tier one?
14:11Yes. Okay. No, I haven't been tier one. Like right now I have Trey McBride as my tight end.
14:16Okay. So there you go. You just don't like the price.
14:19Yeah. It just, no, it just comes down to the price.
14:22If I'm paying up at that price, which right now, like per best ball ADP and stuff like that, Brock Bowers is 18th overall.
14:28Trey McBride is 21st. I'll pay up for Bowers there.
14:31But the caveat is like, you can get Loveland in the third or fourth round.
14:35You get Tyler Warren in the fourth or fifth round.
14:37So it's like, I don't see the gap between McBride and Loveland and Warren as big as maybe Bowers.
14:42So if I'm going to pay up for a guy, I'm paying up for Bowers.
14:46And if not, I'll just enjoy the value of the other two guys that I mentioned at the top.
14:51Well, and like I said, I do want to hit on some of these late round tight ends that are some of our favorite targets.
14:58I like Isaiah Likely a lot. I like Dallas Goddard a lot.
15:01I love Mark Andrews this year. Those guys are all outside the top 12 at the position.
15:05And then a guy we talked about yesterday that Jake brought up, Chigakonkwo, I also love.
15:09He is tied in 20 right now. Like there are a lot of names late that really intrigue me.
15:14There is no world where I'll be drafting like Travis Kelsey's tied in nine.
15:18You know, Kittle coming up, the injury's tied in 10.
15:21I'm not going to be playing in that sandbox.
15:23I'm totally with you. I either want a guy like Bowers or Loveland, or again, there's so many names here that are not going to get drafted.
15:30And if you're not, they'll get drafted, but they're not going to get drafted early or aggressively in a 12 team league
15:36because other people will get starters elsewhere. So I think all of those guys, like Is It Likely, Goddard, Andrews, Akonkwo, just
15:41the first four I see, but there are others I think are all undervalued.
15:45Do you have a favorite Jake late round tight end target?
15:48Late round we talked about yesterday was Akonkwo. I still think Likely is going late enough.
15:52I actually have Likely as a top 10 tight end, although that could shift.
15:56If we hear, Oh, you know what? He's still only going to be on the field 60% of the time.
16:01And then I think we've gone so far and what's been so frustrating about his career to this point that Kincaid is now somebody I will invest in.
16:08I wasn't the past two years, but stays healthy.
16:11And with the potential change in that offense, then yeah, I'm going after Kincaid now that he's finally a discount.
16:16I love Greg Dulcich too. Like you can basically, he's going to go.
16:19I've been on like seven shows with Erickson over the past three weeks.
16:22So like, we did a top five targets and he only had three in there.
16:26And I actually jumped in the sheet and I put Dulcich as four and five just because as soon as you said
16:32that, I was like, yeah, probably worth a mention for Erickson's sake.
16:35The other guy I was going to say that just as a deep sleeper, I think Terrence Ferguson, like there's a world
16:41where he ends up like getting the third most targets for the Rams this year.
16:45It's not, I wouldn't, I'm not saying I would go bad on that necessarily, but he's totally free.
16:50Like just pick them up with your last pick or off waivers and maybe there's an upside swing there.
16:55So there's guys who are really deep sleepers and there's more like mid to late sleepers, like the names I mentioned earlier.
17:00So tons of names at tight end. Totally agree with you here, D bro.
17:04Jake, let's go to your final one for the early rounds.
17:07For the early rounds. And I'm kind of cheating because it kind of pulls into six and seven.
17:11Honestly, it pulls into the entire draft. But I wanted to say, because people are so afraid, I'm somebody who sit here.
17:17And if you've ever heard me before, you've heard at least probably once when I've said, don't buy all the risk.
17:23And my point in that is that people, and this isn't my tool for everybody out there.
17:27I say, don't buy all the risk. Cause I'm like, don't buy into all this hype where we sit here and talk about undervalue, undervalue, undervalue.
17:34And then you get to the middle of late August and all of a sudden you're buying the potential peak return.
17:39So I'm saying that to say is that I'm also going down and saying ADP matters for your targets, but not necessarily
17:45like use the ADP of like, oh, I should take this player in this range is that if you do have a
17:51target, it's okay to go one round earlier. And that's as my point being as somebody who does say, don't buy all
17:56the risks, because I think too often people are sitting there.
17:59Um, you know, I'm the early round four and yeah, that's kind of a reach.
18:03Cause he's probably going at like the third pick a fifth round.
18:06Well, guess what? You don't pick there. Like, and I think that's where I'm saying is like, it's okay to get your guys even in the early rounds.
18:14If we're talking around, if you're talking about potential still return on your investment and because we're talking 12, 16, um, tons
18:19of picks potentially between yours and your next pick where like, if you really believe there's these tier wide receivers or tier running backs, whatever it might be.
18:27And one or two definitively stand out to you.
18:29There's no point in trying to hope that he makes it back to you in the next round.
18:34Just take them. And yeah, people might be like, I can't believe you took them 17 picks too early.
18:39It doesn't matter. Cause if you're right, you're going to be laughing at the end of the game.
18:43Anyway, D raw, I'm not even going to throw it to you.
18:46Cause a, I know you agree. And B this ties into one of the ones that ties into my golden rule.
18:52I do want to let everybody know that we have two giveaways for you.
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19:18Just quick recap of our tips for the early rounds.
19:21Debro wants to walk out of the first round with just about two running backs, but obviously be malleable in that approach.
19:26I want to make sure you're prioritizing wide receiver, just getting some filled building blocks early, not as deep as its reputation.
19:32Jake talks a lot about replacement value mattering for your team builds and kind of pressing those advantages early.
19:37And of course, his thoughts on ADP and then everything we said about tight ends.
19:41So that's a recap for the early rounds here.
19:43Before we get to the middle to late rounds, today's episode is brought to you by Square, the system that seems to power everywhere I go these days.
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20:48All right, let's get into the tips for the middle to late round.
20:51Steve Bro, what do you have for us? Swing for upside based off of talent and situation.
20:56Do not care about the floor. In the middle rounds, I want guys that can win me a league.
21:01If the upside hits and everything coalesces, they are going to be difference makers in your lineup.
21:05And then I'm talking about guys that, again, I pounded the table for that there is risk for.
21:10But if the upside hits like Christian Watson, Basial Tootin, Carno freaking Tate, who can be their clear wide receiver one or
21:15Parker Washington, all these guys were there at their ADPs because we've seen flashes, but they haven't put it together for a
21:21whole season or there's rookie unknown and stuff like that.
21:24If the upside hits for guys like this, this is how you swing your lead in the middle round.
21:29So I don't care about the floor. Shoot for upside.
21:31Jake, what do you think about this? Are you more interested in floor and getting some certainty here or just all upside at this point?
21:38So it's roster construction obviously matters, but upside, upside, upside.
21:40And that's all I'll say for now, because my biggest, biggest, biggest one has a lot to say about that.
21:46Debro, for this, is this more of a middle approach, a late approach or both?
21:50Because we're kind of combining middle rounds and late rounds here.
21:52Do you have this approach really everywhere once you get out of the early rounds or is this more of a little or a late?
21:59I mean, it's it's middle and late. Like you can apply it like honestly, like through all parts of the draft, I'm
22:05kind of doing this, but I mean, I think for a lot of different drafters, I really want them to focus on
22:10this in the middle and late rounds, because again, I personally think floor is a fallacy.
22:15I think when people draft players for floor, they're like, oh, he's got a high floor, blah, blah, blah.
22:19All you're saying is that he can't win you the league.
22:22If he comes back and then the player, the wide receiver averages 11 fantasy points per game and he beats ADP by
22:28three points or three spots based off of where you drafted him and where he finishes, who the hell cares?
22:33That's not winning you a league. That does not matter.
22:36Like it legit does not matter. So floor is a fallacy.
22:39I'm not going to chase floor and be like, oh, I'm so happy this tight end got me nine points a week.
22:44He's tied in 12. Hooray. It's wonderful. It's not changing anything in your league.
22:48Yeah. Jake, what's your first tip for this range?
22:50For the middle range, I'd say going back to what I just brought up, but don't buy all the risk.
22:56But now let me explain it. So where I say the ADP, when you're looking for your guys, you kind of take
23:01this rule and they can go hand in hand, but kind of separate them a little bit.
23:06But don't buy all the risk. And why I've said it for all these years is because people watching this show are invested.
23:12And we're talking about it's still the middle of July.
23:14People watching the show two months ago are invested.
23:17People listening to fancy podcasts and reading articles are invested more than your casual people.
23:21And we're now at the point where, let's be honest, the term still is valuable for search, but sleeper doesn't mean anything
23:26anymore because there's not, you can go through all 32 rosters and there's not going to be a player that'd be like, you know what?
23:33Nobody's talking about this guy. Somebody somewhere has talked about every single player on every single roster in the NFL at this
23:39point, because there's so many people trying to do this job and try to feed out the information that they see and know and share with everybody.
23:46So why I say that is because we start to lean in the off season, especially towards we talk about these players,
23:51talk about these players, talk about the players. And then the group think starts to happen.
23:55And you'll even see people in the industry kind of echo other people, not so much to like copy, just be like, oh, I see the same thing.
24:03Let me talk about them too. So I'll give you an example.
24:06I'm not talking him up, but like, let's say the commanders do nothing.
24:09They don't sign digs. They don't do anything else.
24:12And Antonio Williams is the guy. You're like, he's underrated because he's going to get a hundred plus targets.
24:17And then somebody else, he underrated. The number two, the blah, blah, blah.
24:20And then by the time we get to August, all of a sudden Antonio Williams is the seventh round pick.
24:25Like, and that's why I said, you're buying all the risks that he is the number two.
24:30He is going to get a hundred targets and he has to do everything that we present.
24:34Like Debro said, ceiling and floor. You've now gone so far that they have to hit their ceiling just to get pretty equitable value.
24:40And that's why I say, don't buy all the risks.
24:43Because now the only opportunity you have on your team is the risk and the downside.
24:47And you don't want that. I think this is a pretty easy one to agree with Debro.
24:51I assume you agree as well. Yeah. I mean, look, I'm fine with being aggressive on players and stuff like that, but
24:57I'm also not going to chase pseudo steam up the board.
25:00Like when players get all the hype and stuff and you see their ADP climb by like three rounds and stuff, it's
25:06like, okay, are we kind of getting a little bit out over our skis?
25:09And do we need, to Jake's point, like a 95th percentile outcome for this to all hit?
25:14Like if it hits, then you're like, oh, hooray, look at me.
25:17But like, if that, if that doesn't hit, then you're like, okay, well, what did I do?
25:21And why did I do this? It's kind of like what I just talked about with Terrence Ferguson.
25:26Like the reason I like him is because he's free.
25:29If, if everybody was saying, oh, I kind of like him as a sleeper, like, like Jake's example with Anthony Williams, same thing.
25:35Like, and all of a sudden he's now going as tight end 19.
25:38That feels a lot different. You know, you're, you're buying that risk.
25:41So I think that's spot on. To that point, this feels like a conversation about like we were discussing on a previous show by Jonathan Brooks.
25:48It's like, dude, it's a mid RB three. I'm totally in.
25:51If he gets up to like RB 20, then I'm like, ah, well, yeah, I don't know.
25:55I'm having a very, very difficult conversation with myself and I'm probably out at that point, but we'll see.
26:00All right, Debra, what's your next tip for the middle to late rounds?
26:04Dude, I love late round quarterback this year. I, I, that's what I want people to walk away with this.
26:09I think quarterback is just so flush with upside and names so late that I am going to be drafting and looking at late round quarterbacks in.
26:16So I'm going to be really, really heavy on this this year.
26:19And I wanted to highlight it because I think like past previous years, you can still get like all of these quarterbacks.
26:25I'm about to rattle off all these names have either a history of being top 12 quarterbacks over multiple seasons, or they
26:30have rushing upside or a combination of the two to carry them inside the top seven to 12 quarterbacks this year.
26:36And all of these guys are going outside the top 90 players in ADP right now.
26:40Jackson Dart, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Tyler Shuck, Malik Willis.
26:44All of those guys either have the history of production or we've seen it in small spurts or they have the rushing upside to carry them this year.
26:51I mean, look guys, I just let rattled off seven freaking quarterbacks going outside the top 90.
26:55You can draft two of them. And if one of them hits, Yatsi, do you like deeper before I talk to Jake?
27:01Do you like late round quarterback more than you like late round tight end this year?
27:05Yes, only because I think that that's one of the ways where you can pay up for for tight end and you
27:11can get one of those top three guys. And then you just play the game of playing late round quarterback draft two guys and you're making it up.
27:18You might be able to get elite production. I mean, people forget Jackson Dart.
27:22You take away the one freaking game against the Vikings where he scored one freaking fantasy point.
27:26And when he was a starter, he was QB one and fantasy points per game.
27:30He was out producing freaking Josh Allen and you can get access to him outside the top 90.
27:35Yeah. So you can make up that type of elite production, possibly a quarterback while getting elite production and difference maker type
27:41of production from the tight end position. It's much easier to do that.
27:44You like the late round options for both, but you just like the early round option better at tight end than quarterback.
27:50Like you see the gaps stronger at that position.
27:52Okay. That makes sense. Yes. You can, if you're going to look for league winning upside and top three to five potential,
27:58you can ease more easily access that at quarterback late than you can with tight end.
28:02Jake, what do you think about late round quarterback this year?
28:05Obviously there's tons. And even at some of the names that, you know, Debra didn't mention there's like, you could go 12
28:10deep of guys who aren't going inside the top 10 right now.
28:14Pretty intriguing names for various reasons. Do you agree just that the depth makes you really like late round quarterback?
28:19It does, especially because when I said before, similar to tight end, it's either get the first tier or wait, but it's also get the first tier.
28:26If there's a value there, like if I have six, I can argue for the sixth being Hertz, which as of today,
28:32that could actually change if we get bad reports that like the Manion offense isn't clicking.
28:36Hertz isn't clicking. Makai Lemon isn't click like a lot.
28:38So I basically say the five, maybe six being Hertz, but that's assuming when I say take one early that one of
28:44them makes them to round five or six, like I'm, I'm not going to invest in rounds two or three because I
28:50have a tier of six where I'm willing to jump in.
28:53If they are at rounds five or six, if they aren't, and they all go in the first four rounds, maybe your
28:58league is a super heavy quarterback drafting. Then I'm just, as he said, I'm waiting till the end game.
29:03I love Jackson Dart late at Trevor Lawrence. There's a lot.
29:06It's still value. Like the second half of last season, it was QB one or two in league.
29:11So I just think there's a lot of options.
29:13I'm not even the biggest guy in Justin Herbert, but he's going late enough where you just don't seventh, eighth, ninth round.
29:19If you don't get that top tier. Yeah. It's, it's the thing where it's like, it's not just that it's super deep.
29:25Like, Oh, Malik Willis is QB 21. That's crazy.
29:27Or like, Oh, maybe I'm buying into the upside of Cam Ward in year two, a QB 24 or Baker Mayfield has done it before QB 19.
29:34You don't even have to go that deep, right?
29:36You could get Dak breastbot at QB 10, right?
29:39You could get Jackson Dart outside the top 90 Brock Purdy's QB 12.
29:42If everybody else in your league takes a quarterback and nobody takes a backup, you know, too early, you can walk away with Purdy or Nick.
29:49So, you know, whoever your favorite is of those options, Stafford, who was awesome last year.
29:53So the point is that there's tons of options late and middle.
29:56Like it is really kind of all over the place.
29:59It's, it's a, you know, a ton of options there.
30:01So I agree with that one as well. I wish you guys would pick more tips that I could push back on
30:07because I would love to disagree with some of these.
30:10Don't want to, don't want to fake it though.
30:12So I genuinely have liked most of these Jake, who's your, or what's your next tip here for the middle to late rounds?
30:18Pay attention to the other team's needs. I think this gets lost.
30:21This one's terrible. Horrific tip. Don't nobody listen. I'm just kidding.
30:24It's a bad time. We're going to throw some KGs.
30:27I think that a lot of times, especially this hits harder for people in the first three or the last three picks
30:32of each round, the middle rounds, there's only so much you can do, but still pay attention.
30:37You pay attention to what other teams are building.
30:39If somebody already has four wide receivers, they're not likely to take a fifth because you're already starting on your bench if
30:45you're still in round seven, but somebody has a quarterback and you don't, but the two or even two, let's say you're
30:51picking the 10th spot, 11, 12, both have their quarterback and you don't.
30:54Well, you take whatever you're looking at your flex spot because you know you're probably going to get your quarterback still after
31:00the turn, four picks later, where it's possible that your target at running back or wide receiver ends up going because they need that more.
31:06I think a lot of times people are just like, oh, I need blank and I need to get blank and see whatever's on the board.
31:13And then it's like, oh, well, I could have waited five picks and still got them because the other teams are set or chasing on the flip side.
31:20Go back to what one of my first one was, is if you're in rounds five and you're like, man, there's a
31:26guy I really kind of want to get in round six.
31:29And you're like, well, he's a running back and they're, you know, all these teams behind me only have one.
31:34Just go ahead and take them because he's probably not likely to get to you.
31:38So I think that's one thing that people, and I know sometimes the drafts are moving so fast that you can't, but
31:44just try to keep attention, pay attention to the other team's makeups.
31:47So, you know, where you can and can't wait on certain situations.
31:50Something that helps with that is draft assistant. This is not an official read I'm supposed to do right now, but just
31:56want to point out that draft assistant does quite go a long way at helping with that.
32:00And, uh, and like, cause sometimes I do find it hard to, when you're on the clock and you don't have that
32:06much time, it's ticking down, like you have to try and consider multiple different teams and what they're doing and just the guys you believe in and everything.
32:13This is why it's good to have like a cheat sheet built out ahead of time and, and have things like the
32:19draft assistant to just kind of highlight it for you.
32:21Say, Hey, just so you know, these teams have already all taken quarterbacks.
32:25You can wait, you know, four more picks, take your next one, whatever it is.
32:29So I would recommend draft assistant in those scenarios and to, to kind of follow along with this tip.
32:34My tip for the middle to late rounds, uh, is kind of when in doubt, trust the quarterback and the play caller.
32:39And this is basically just about the offensive environment.
32:42And there can be lots of reasons to like players that are not on teams.
32:46We expect to be high scoring and some of the great offenses in the league.
32:49But if you're torn between two guys in the middle of late rounds, which I imagine will happen, you know, there's a lot of names to pick from.
32:57And sometimes you're going to say, I kind of like this guy or that guy.
33:01I want to follow the offensive environment and say, which of these teams, which of these guys on a team that has
33:06a chance to score a lot of touchdowns and maybe he runs hot in touchdowns because the team is so good or
33:12which of these teams has a quarterback that isn't going to be a real detriment to him and totally tank his season
33:18the way, you know, Justin Jefferson season was tanked by JJ McCarthy last year.
33:21Sorry, D bro. Um, you know, which team has the, the play calling up upgrade where, Oh, I think that I love this guy.
33:28They hired the tree they hired from. I think they're going to take a step forward.
33:32So when in doubt, I, you know, I obviously go with the player you want, but if I'm trying to decide between
33:38two, I think the offensive environment, particularly that team's quarterback in the play caller, even if you're a running back, right?
33:43Like you're not catching pass from the quarterback, just a quarterback that will elevate the offense to give you more scoring opportunities
33:49is slightly more than a tiebreaker to me. Uh, deeper, what do you think?
33:52I think that your point is, first of all, it's really good, but also I think it's really important to also bring
33:58up the point of when I feel like people have that kind of conundrum when they're debating two or three players.
34:04A lot of times this comes back to, well, I already drafted Chase Brown.
34:07So am I really going to draft another Bengal or I already drafted a Ram?
34:11Am I going to go invest in the same offense?
34:14Uh, well, I, yes, you do because if that offense is top five and scoring, it's, it's the tide that raises all the ships.
34:20So yes, it's totally fine to draft two players because you're like, dude, they're going to score points.
34:25They're going to lead the league in points. So like draft all the Patriots, draft all the Bengals, invest in good offenses.
34:30And a lot of people will be like, yeah, but I don't want to be over invested.
34:35How many times do we see good offenses support two top 15 wide receivers, uh, top five tight end and a tie
34:41in, you know, two top 20 wide receivers. We see it every single freaking year.
34:44So yes, to your point, worm invest in good offenses.
34:47Cause if you score touchdowns, everybody's coming along for the ride.
34:50Jake, how much do you weigh the offensive environment when you're making decisions in this area of the draft?
34:55It's really when it comes down to the tie breaks kind of situations is a lot of people to Debro's point will
35:01use the tiebreaker like, oh, I don't want two Bengals or whatever.
35:04I think it's the inverse of that is that I want to target the good offenses.
35:08So if I have a tier of guys and generally my rankings already reflect that.
35:12But if you guys, whoever's listening has a different set of group and you're like, you know what?
35:16I kind of like all these four players. I could see the breakout here.
35:20I could see the potential, blah, blah, blah, whatever it might be.
35:23I'm not too concerned if I roster a second player from the same team, because the, as you said, the tide that
35:29raises all the ships, you know, how many times have we seen two top 15 wide receivers from the same team running
35:35back and a wide receiver and a quarterback all be ones on the same team?
35:39Because the offense is where we chase the Rams.
35:41We chase the Bengals. We were chasing the Eagles until last year, but that's, it's going to be the tiebreak that like,
35:47yeah, that's where I'm going to go. I'm going to chase the offense.
35:50I just told everybody about draft assistant. Let me not tell them about draft Intel, which is my favorite single tool that we have at fantasy pros.
35:57You can study every single draft guide on the internet, but you aren't drafting against a computer.
36:01You're drafting against Bob from accounting who takes a quarterback in the first round every single year.
36:06Stop guessing and use draft Intel to remember stuff like that.
36:09You sync your league from Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper, and others for free.
36:12And it instantly analyzes up to five years of your league's historical draft data.
36:15It'll tell you exactly who reaches, who hoards running backs, and who never takes a tight end before round six.
36:21Plus, if you're a premium member, you can pull all these exact user tendencies right into our mock draft simulator.
36:26So the bots will draft exactly like your actual league mates.
36:29Head over to fantasypros.com slash intel and spy on your league today.
36:32I really do love draft Intel. And playing into what I was saying about draft assistant earlier, like it will not only
36:38say, hey, something like, hey, these teams ahead of you have already taken quarterbacks, so you can wait to take it.
36:43It'll say these teams never take quarterbacks in the first 10 rounds in this whole history of your league.
36:48So you can wait, even if they don't already have one.
36:51I just think it's like playing on easy mode, honestly.
36:53I think draft Intel is one of the coolest things we do at Fantasy Pros.
36:57Worm, we could have summed that up with just don't be Bob.
37:01Don't be Bob. Don't be Bob. Is that your golden rule here, D-Ro, that you never break?
37:05No, the golden rule that I'm going to share with people is the same golden rule that I've had on the bottom
37:11of my cheat sheet for every single year I've been at Fantasy Pros.
37:14And it really just sums up the five words, as you always remember when you're drafting, screw ADP and get your guys.
37:20There is nothing more painful than getting sniped on a player that you're like, I was going to draft him last round
37:25and I didn't because I played the ADP game.
37:28And then you watch that player smash on somebody else's team.
37:31And this is especially true for people that are drafting at the turn and stuff like that, where you're trying to anticipate
37:36or you're playing the ADP game and you're like, well, well, if I draft him early, my entire league is going to clown me.
37:43Who freaking cares? Because the other side of that coin is if you draft a guy and he smashes at the end
37:48of the year, nobody's going to look back and be like, Bob took that guy 15, 15 clicks, picks before ADP.
37:54Like, yes, that's, it's so crazy. If the player smashes, it doesn't matter.
37:57And nobody cares about that. So screw ADP and get your guys.
38:00Yeah, I'll do mine next. Cause it's sort of similar to this.
38:03It's, it's nobody knows for sure. So draft the team you want to root for all year.
38:08This is going to be your roster. You know, we play in like 20 different leagues.
38:12A lot of people don't, a lot of people are in like one, two, maybe three leagues and that's plenty for them.
38:18So you don't have the option to be like, oh, well, if I don't like as a Ravens fan, if I'm like,
38:24oh, I, you know, I could didn't get Lamar in this draft.
38:27I can get him in the next one. I was waiting for you to bring up.
38:31Well, I'm just using that as an example. I was waiting.
38:34I set the timer. I want to have Lamar in one of my leagues.
38:37Well, I have 20 options to do that. A lot of people don't.
38:41So if you're in a league and you're like, I really want to have this player because he's my favorite player or
38:46because I really believe in him, not even because he's on your favorite team.
38:50Just like, I really think this guy is going to have a big year and I don't care what the rankings say.
38:56I have conviction in this. Just go, go get them.
38:58Like take the guy that you don't take the guy that you're supposed to take.
39:02Take the guy that you want to take. Because to your point, D bro, there are a few things that will eat
39:08you up more at the end of the season than like if let's say last year you were really in on JSN,
39:14but it was like, I can't take him because these other guys are all consensus ranked ahead of him.
39:19And then he doesn't fall back to you. And then you watch him do what he did all year.
39:24That will eat away at you. And it will be like this dark.
39:27Even if you have a good season, in my experience, that's a dark cloud over your year.
39:31So just whether it's because that player is on your favorite team or whether it's passing on a player because you don't just don't play like them.
39:38Maybe you're just like uncomfortable having a guy like Rasheed Rice on your team with some of the off fields, like whatever
39:44it is, like nobody knows for sure. So just draft the team that you want to be actually rooted for and that
39:50will make your Sundays fun because we do this for fun.
39:53Obviously, we're trying to win, trying to maybe win a little money too.
39:56But like this is your team and this is a game at the end of the day.
40:01So draft the team you want to root for.
40:03Kind of similar to go get your guys, like Debra says.
40:06Jake, your golden rule is one that I have heard you say before.
40:09Yeah. Band kickers. It kind of does tie in.
40:11Stop wasting your bench. And the problem is, is I see this go.
40:15I'm going back to referencing similar to a question that I referenced from before is that I look at these rosters and
40:21I'm like, why does your bench look like this?
40:23And it's not like we're trying to teach. I'm not trying to be mean when I say that.
40:28And I know it's going to sound mean, but it's drafting players that like if your thought, let me put it this way.
40:34If your first thought was, hey, I'm around 10, I think he would be good for my bye week.
40:39Don't draft him. Everybody's good for your bye week on the waiver wire.
40:42You are shooting for why you see teams winning fantasy and why they make the differences is because we're trying to give you the best odds.
40:49It's all odds. Like there's not 100% tactic that's going to win.
40:52There's not 100% player that's going to hit for you.
40:54Late rounds, it gets even dicier. But you give yourself as many bullets in the chamber to go after and win a championship.
41:00And by doing so is by having potential similar to what Debrose said and you did too.
41:05It's like, I want guys who could be running back twos, wide receiver twos and threes.
41:09Potential people that are top 25 to 30 at their position.
41:12A potential top 10 quarterback that surprises. Same thing at tight end.
41:15You want the upside to be a difference maker.
41:17You don't want the guy, I'm sorry to throw him under the bus on this one, but I'm not drafting Jacoby Myers.
41:23There is Jacoby Myers like, oh, everybody reaches some point where you'll draft him.
41:27No, I won't. Because his ceiling is wide receiver four, maybe wide receiver three.
41:30And there are a ton of those. With a difference, I'd rather go after somebody who has the potential top 20 ceiling,
41:36who maybe I drop in week three. But the reason these rosters that you see later in the year is like, man,
41:42how did he end up with all these guys?
41:44Or how did she end up with all these trade targets that she could go get?
41:48It's because they took these gambles, these lottery tickets.
41:51And if you just get one or two to hit versus a bunch of replacement value players, which I think that's the biggest thing.
41:57People take way too many replacement value players instead of the upside on the bench.
42:01And it also does jokingly. It does tie into kickers.
42:03Don't draft the second kicker. Maybe a second defense if you want to see how it plays out at the beginning of the year.
42:10But the bigger one, too, is that quarterback. If you take that top tier of quarterbacks, don't draft the backup quarterback.
42:15You're never starting them unless your lead option is on a buy or gets hurt.
42:19And I know some people are like, well, that's how I fell into blank.
42:23You're right, but you're like the 5%. And that's what it is.
42:26It's that confirmation bias that people only remember when you hit on said player at quarterback and tight end.
42:31That's why I'm making the differentiation there is because they're like, oh, man, that one year I had Matt Ryan and Tom Brady.
42:37Well, you also led to the fact that you had to make a trade or you had a hell of a decision
42:42to make every single week because you didn't draft that top five or top six quarterback just to throw them on your bench anyway.
42:49Do you, Jake, feel like when you're aiming for this upside with one of these bench spots, do you feel like you
42:54prefer to still avoid, like, let's say a guy who's maybe falling because of injury concerns, still has upside, and you would
43:00rather kind of focus on the guys who have upside based on their role changing or something like that or just kind of a breakout year?
43:07Or are you kind of like equal opportunity? I don't care if they're falling because it's injury or role or situation, whatever.
43:13Like, I want to just take swings all over.
43:15Are there types of swings that you like more than others?
43:18I'll make it all the swings and I'll turn it around and like, this is everybody what you can ask yourself is
43:24Pat Mayo, who I've done shows with for the longest time, create your narrative.
43:27Is there a narrative and like a situation where it's like, hey, we did another show just yesterday.
43:32Jonathan Brooks, if he's 100%, probably takes over the backfield because of his talent.
43:35So what's the scenario? Like, hey, I'm in round 12.
43:38Oh, this player, Jacoby Myers. Oh, if Brian Thomas gets hurt and is a junk or whatever it is, maybe he can get to wide receiver three.
43:45Okay. That's a cool narrative. But like, how about blank running backs?
43:48Nicholas Singleton. We did that show too. Like, I don't love him.
43:51But is there a narrative to say like, you know what, the other two continue to be subpar performers and he just
43:57takes over because of, hey, he looks a little bit better.
44:00Blank gets hurt. Blank comes back, whatever it might be.
44:03Ask the question, not just, hey, does this only fill in for a bye week?
44:06Ask the question the other way. Can this player reach the top 20, 25, 30 if something happens?
44:11And if so, there's your answer. That's the swings I'm taking.
44:14But like, to your point, Jake, is there any credible scenario, like any scenario that we can craft with Khalil Shakir as an actual wider top 15?
44:21No, because we've already seen him. It does not exist.
44:24It doesn't exist. Yeah. He's our, don't draft him.
44:26It doesn't exist. By the way, if I could give a bonus tip here based on something you said, Jake, like if
44:32I, if it were possible, I could click a button and have this happen.
44:35I would just remove the bye week column from the draft rooms I'm in.
44:39I was, I don't even want to know. I don't want to care.
44:42I don't want it to be a tiebreaker. I don't want to think about it.
44:46I don't want that information. I don't want to anchor myself to that information.
44:50Your team is going to look so different in the middle of November than it does in early September, right?
44:55Like injuries are going to find you. Guys are going to underperform.
44:58You might make a trade. You might pick up somebody off waivers who's better than the guy you thought was going to be your starter.
45:05Anyway, there are so many paths to, there's so many exit ramps to the bye week being an issue in the course of the next few months.
45:12I do not even want to know. It's not that I'm telling you don't care.
45:16Try to not even find out if you can.
45:18Don't look at that. I don't care because nobody should care.
45:21Nobody should care. I don't even want to know is my point.
45:24Like, no, again, and this is the, this is the 5% of when it did happen because it's only happened once to
45:30me, but I went the other way one year where I was out.
45:33So, oh gosh, I have four guys on week seven by and that ended up being my tiebreaker the other way.
45:39I was like, I'll just lean into it. I'll have basically nobody that week and kind of throw the loss out the
45:44window, but I'll need 90% strength for the rest of the year.
45:47And again, I'm saying this is the 5% admittedly.
45:50I lost one game that year. It was that bye week that I got torpedoed and destroyed it.
45:54There's been other years where I haven't had that level of success, but the point being, and I agree with you is
46:00because I've actually leaned into it and it's gone the other way and working for me.
46:04Yep. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I legit think you should not even look at bye weeks.
46:08They do not matter. And to your point, worm, when you get to that point of the season, if your bench is
46:14like you draft five guys and they all have the same bye week, you drop three or four of them, you drop
46:20all of them and you end up with different players.
46:23When you get to week 12, it doesn't matter.
46:25It's funny that you said week 12. I was going to say the same thing.
46:29It doesn't matter. I was going to say, if you get to week 12, hold on, if you get to week 12
46:34and your roster is exactly the same or 95% of what it was when you drafted, you have an amazing roster and
46:40you're not going to care about the bye week anyway, because you just walked away from the draft with every best target you possibly have.
46:47Yeah. You're probably like 11 to your point. To your point though, too, Jake, it's like, if you, who cares if you
46:52don't go undefeated, if you lose one week, because you say, fine, I'm going to take the L that week, but I'm
46:58steamrolling the league the rest of the year. Or it doesn't matter.
47:01You're still walking home with a championship. Here you go.
47:04Be a really good manager. Get all of the week 14 bye players so they can rest it and ready for your playoffs.
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49:09All right, guys. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
49:11Thanks, everybody, for checking out. I've had a pretty fun episode.
49:14This is one of the types of episodes I really like where we take sort of the bigger picture view and don't
49:20just hit on specific names but kind of talk about our macro-level approaches.
49:23So I hope everybody enjoyed that. For D-Bro and Jake, I'm Ryan Warmly.
49:27Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time.
49:29Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
49:32If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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