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0:27Hello everybody! Welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:30I'm Ryan Wormley, joined by Andrew Erickson on this Tuesday morning.
0:34We are talking players to buy and sell for Week 3.
0:37If you missed it, we already did the Running Backs and Quarterbacks episode.
0:41That should already be available. YouTube, Spotify, anywhere else to get your podcasts.
0:44This is our Wide Receivers and Tight Ends version of the episode.
0:48We are splitting the episode into two moving forward.
0:50So be on the lookout for both smaller episodes week to week here on The Trade Show.
0:55Erickson, we can go ahead and dive right in.
0:58Wide Receivers to buy is where we're gonna start.
1:00You've got a couple. I've got one. Let's start with one of yours.
1:04Josh Downs. The time is now for Josh Downs to be the Prince that was promised, step up, in a full-time role
1:11finally for the Indianapolis Colts, and to be a big part of this team's passing game moving forward.
1:16Last week, in Week 2, against Kansas City Chiefs, Downs led the Colts with a 27.3 target share, which more than doubled his volume from Week 1.
1:24He had seven catches for 72 yards on an 83% snap rate and was the team leader in routes run for the second straight week.
1:31So, 2026 has been pretty good for Josh Downs in terms of his runout.
1:35His role has changed in the offense where he's not just being pigeonholed into, okay, you're in the slot, you're only playing an 11 personnel.
1:42Like, he is a full-time wide receiver on this team, and that has not changed with the addition of Keenan Allen.
1:48We know that Alec Pierce is gonna miss significant time after injuring his heel.
1:52We know he had ankle surgery this offseason, so there's a re-aggravation there.
1:56We don't know if we're gonna see him again.
1:59So, Downs, I think, has a golden opportunity now to step up and become the focal point of this passing game alongside
2:05Tyler Warren, because Keenan Allen, man, I don't know if you were watching it super closely on Sunday night, but that guy could not get open.
2:13He looked all of 33 years old, 34 years old, because those Kansas City Chiefs defensive backs were all over Allen.
2:19And maybe he has just kind of hit father time, where he just doesn't have the juice anymore to create separation.
2:25We know that those guys, especially with these older receivers, man, doesn't all come crashing down at once.
2:30We're like, yep, no, he's cooked at this point.
2:33So, I'm not afraid of Keenan Allen as a threat to Josh Downs, who this team has been super excited about.
2:39He's been historically one of the most efficient receivers the last couple years in terms of creating separation, in terms of commanding
2:45targets at a high rate whenever he runs routes, and that was clearly apparent in week two.
2:50So, Josh Downs for me, he's still a player that I think is still kind of in that wide receiver three range.
2:56Would not surprise me whatsoever. He's a top 24 wide receiver rest of season, especially if we don't get Alec Pierce back at any point.
3:03So, he's a buy for me. I have always liked Josh Downs the player.
3:08I've been a believer in him from watching him.
3:10I've been a believer in him from the guys in the industry that I really trust to evaluate wide receivers quite liking him.
3:17I've just, I've always really liked the player. I have never quite liked the usage.
3:21And I was, I will admit it, terrified of the Keenan Allen addition because we have seen what he has done to
3:28young receivers that we like at other stops, both in LA and Chicago, where he has really nuked the value of guys
3:34that we thought were ready to take a step forward.
3:37So, the fact that he has not looked good and hasn't done this to Josh Downs so far is incredibly encouraging to
3:43me as somebody who has always again liked the player Josh Downs, who it's hard to believe is still only 25 years old.
3:50Like, I feel like we've been talking about Downs for a while.
3:53So, I like this a lot. And what I also like about it, Erickson, is he has in half PPR scoring, he
4:00has scored this season, not in any given week, this season 15 and a half points.
4:04Like, this is not a player who has come out of the gates so hot that he is, you know, lighting up box scores.
4:11He doesn't have a touchdown yet. You know, he had nine targets, seven catches, 72 yards in this last game.
4:17So, people are going to be a little bit more excited.
4:20But like, he had a down week one. He's got Houston this week.
4:24So, it's, oh, you know, tough defense coming up in the next few weeks at Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, at Jacksonville.
4:30So, you know, if the Josh Downs manager is looking like that, they might be saying, hey, maybe this is an opportunity
4:36to sell on an offensive, in a passing game that I don't want to be involved in.
4:41I think it's a smart bet to take, especially in any league that rewards you for, you know, a catch, right?
4:47Whether it's half PPR or full PPR. I like this a lot because I think he's affordable.
4:52Wide receiver 61, wide receiver 23 the last two weeks to start the season.
4:56Again, a player I like. Pierce going out for a while.
4:59Allen looking cooked. Like, I know Tyler Warren is obviously still there.
5:03And Daniel Jones needs to be better for him to be truly, like, taking a major step forward.
5:08But I'm hopeful that Jones will continue to look better throughout the course of the season as he gets further and further removed from the injury.
5:15And, and again, at the end of the day, like, I just think Downs is a good player, man.
5:21So I like this one. Yeah, I think it's simplest form.
5:24Josh Downs is a good player. You want to buy good players, especially at wide receiver, because I think that is where
5:31the talent matters the most because you don't always get the favorable usage.
5:34Well, now we're going to get the favorable usage for Josh Downs in terms of volume, in terms of opportunity, in terms of him running enough routes.
5:42I think it's worth mentioning that the Colts signed Darius Slayton to their roster to fill that field stretcher type role of the offense.
5:49So that will help hopefully take things and create things more underneath.
5:53Obviously, his impact is not the same as a player like Alec Pierce.
5:56But that being said, Josh Downs could also be used more vertically because of the lack of Alec Pierce.
6:02So again, buying into the good player. And dude, we've seen this Colts defense play for two straight weeks.
6:07It's not good. It's not a good defense. So if they're playing in more high scoring games, they play in a dome.
6:14That's where Josh Downs can really thrive. So you were asking me about his rest of season ranking.
6:19Yeah, I was going to say it's wide receiver 34.
6:22I want to throw out some rapid fire names that are in that same range in the consensus rest of season rankings to see who you prefer.
6:30And you don't need to give a full explanation.
6:32He's just very quickly shooting from the hip. Who do you like better?
6:36Josh Downs or Jalen Coker? I think I'm going to take Coker at 30.
6:40Josh Downs. Yeah, I would agree on Coker, by the way.
6:43He's a couple spots ahead. Josh Downs or Stefan Diggs?
6:46I would take Downs over Diggs. Josh Downs or Carnell Tate, who I talked about as a sell last week.
6:52Feeling pretty good about that one. Yes. Victory lap.
6:54Take it. Take your victory lap. I would take Josh Downs over Tate.
6:58Josh Downs or Chris Godwin? Downs. Josh Downs or Denzel Boston?
7:01I have them ranked back to back, but I will take Downs.
7:05Last one here, and they are ranked back to back in consensus.
7:08Josh Downs or Matthew Golden? I knew you were going to ask.
7:12So yeah, my rankings have been updated. They're not always updated when we do this show.
7:16I was saving him as the last one. But I will go with Matthew Golden.
7:21Okay, yes. Obviously a real opportunity. But yeah, no, I think that I have a Coker, Golden, Downs.
7:26That's how I have those three in that order.
7:29I feel good about that order, but it is tight.
7:32It's just a matter of Downs following in the production because Coker's produced.
7:35Golden has produced so far two games. We're just hoping now, okay, everything's pointing to Downs is going to be producing.
7:41So, but those veteran guys, right? Diggs maybe should have been a player we talked about as a sell high where he's
7:48got a lot of touchdowns over the first couple of weeks of the season.
7:52You know, have a brand new quarterback coming in.
7:54Terry's going to get his eventually, right? As someone that bet the anytime touchdown for Terry McLaurin, you can't imagine how frustrating
8:01watching week two was, but he has like three opportunities for touchdowns and he doesn't score any of them.
8:06It just ends with another dud game. So, Diggs, I would definitely trade and flip for Josh Downs.
8:11And I think that's something you could probably do.
8:14I think, I think you're right. I think you could do that.
8:18DK Metcalf, by the way, is in this range too.
8:20I didn't even ask because I know your answer is on that one, but I mean, he could be a sell low, honestly.
8:27He's so frustrating. Yeah. Agreed. Let me give you a wide receiver to buy here before we get to your next one.
8:33Garrett Wilson. And I talked a little bit about this in the running back show.
8:38So I would again, encourage people to check that out if they missed it.
8:42They're going to hear me say some of the same things because this is another jet, but the schedule is incredible.
8:48This is a player that, and again, I also mentioned this in the other show we talked about with Tara on a
8:54moves to make episode earlier this week. She's very interested in buying Garrett Wilson and almost everything I said about Brees Hall in the running backs episode.
9:02You could copy paste for, for Garrett Wilson. I think he's somebody that you are, have seen the floor so far, and there's a lot more ceiling available.
9:10I think he's somebody who is attainable because he's currently ranked as wide receiver 18 in the consensus rest of season rankings.
9:17Brees Hall was RB 17 in that running backs conversation.
9:19So again, very similar between the two he's ranked as a wide receiver too.
9:24And that's what he's been the first two weeks of the season.
9:27I think you're going to get wide receiver one or close to wide receiver one production moving forward because again, it's a very good player.
9:34I mean, even better than like we're talking about with Josh Downs, just a good player.
9:39This is just a great player, right? He hasn't always been able to show it in his production because of the quarterback
9:45situation, but this is a great wide receiver who is getting functional quarterback play.
9:49He's getting competent quarterback play serviceable. These are amazing words to hear as a long time dynasty manager of Garrett Wilson, because
9:56we have often seen nothing close to that. And Erickson again, just in case folks missed the running backs episode at Detroit
10:02at Chicago or the next two weeks. That's amazing course to the NFL and Chicago defense home against Cleveland, whose defense you
10:08always like to talk about doesn't travel as well at New England.
10:12You know, if he's getting a Christian Gonzalez, that might be tough, but then met home for Miami home for Las Vegas.
10:18Buffalo's in there. Another Miami game is in there at the Chargers is in there.
10:23I mean, it just looks really good pretty much until you get to that by week in week 13.
10:28Everything between now and then looks incredible Erickson. So I really think Garrett Wilson is going to be the type of player
10:34that because it's the Jets and because he has burned managers before, there's not going to be that much enthusiasm about the upside.
10:41I think a lot of people are going to continue to look at Garrett Wilson as a floor play.
10:47But I think you are actually making a ceiling play if you are trading for him, given the schedule, given the functionality
10:53of the Jets offense and the fact that, you know, it's not like Omar Cooper's taking targets away.
10:58Right. Like like there's injuries in this receiving room.
11:01There's in effect, ineffective other pass catchers in this receiving room.
11:04Garrett Wilson is the clear number one in an offense that's moving the ball.
11:08OK, and I think it's going to score a lot of points in the next two, two and a half months.
11:14So I think I think it's a ceiling play disguised as a floor play.
11:18Your goal this week. No, no, no. Your mission this week is to get Jets players on your fantasy football team in 2026.
11:25Feels weird to say, but it's right, dude. Yeah.
11:27All the reasons for guys like Garrett Wilson during the running back show.
11:31You're talking about Brees Hall. This offense is set to smash based on all these matchups.
11:36And we know these are good players, right? It's one thing to really buy into the matchup when it's a fringe guy that you're not really sure about.
11:44But we know Brees Hall is a stud. We know Garrett Wilson is a stud.
11:48A.D. Mitchell. He's fun, too. He could probably have a monster game against the Patriots if Gonzalez is covering Garrett Wilson.
11:54He out target Garrett Wilson last week. So I think the Jets are doing the right thing offensively.
12:00Frank Rank has shown a little bit more than I think we were giving him credit for as the offensive play caller.
12:06So, yeah, man. All aboard. What could go wrong?
12:08Yeah. Famous last words. This feels we are. I will admit if I'm taking a step back and evaluating the situation.
12:15We are maybe too enthusiastic about recommending Jets players that that that has burned many people in the past.
12:20So I am aware of that. Would you trade Rashi Rice for Garrett Wilson asking for a friend who may or may
12:26not have Rashi Rice on the roster that they're trying to trade?
12:30I think you can. I don't think it's like, oh, every manager out there would accept that.
12:35I think there are some who would. So that's why I say like it's not like a guarantee, but I think it is possible depending on the right.
12:43Again, it's I say this so much on this show because trades are the most contextual thing in fantasy.
12:48But context, you know, dependent. I think you can with the right manager.
12:52Because Rice, Rice, I think is interesting in terms of just like I think there is a real case for Rice as
12:59a buy low, even though he has not looked very good to start the season.
13:03You know, last year, this was a team that was really invested in using him in the red zone.
13:08And I like at some point, Kenneth Walker will have to get start getting fewer touches like he he will not hold up with the workload.
13:16He's getting the season as fun as it's been to watch.
13:19And my homes looks pretty darn back. So like all of that to me says that Rice is a good buy low.
13:25So I think you talk to the right person.
13:28I would prefer Garrett Wilson between the two just but that is a I prefer Garrett Wilson because of Garrett Wilson, not because of Rashi Rice.
13:36I think Rice is a good buy low. Yeah, Rice is interesting because they play the Dolphins this week.
13:41They play the rate. But it's it's kind of a risk reward, right?
13:45Because what if he doesn't do any like what if his role isn't changing and this offense is just totally running back
13:51centric and it's not Rashi Rice that sees an increased workload when they taper back Ken Walker.
13:56It's our just going to feature Emmer Johnson. We're just going to give the guys that we know are really good on our team and Rice.
14:04We kind of know has always been kind of uplifted by his role in the offense as the how the kids say
14:10PPR scam merchant underneath for Rashi Rice getting a ton of red zone opportunities.
14:14But where's he in rest season rankings because he's someone I look at a lot.
14:1824. He's wide receiver 24 consensus rest of season ranking.
14:21That feels too low to me. So yeah, I have.
14:24I mean, I'm definitely the one that's probably bringing him down then because I just I don't know like I looked at
14:31him up versus a lot of other guys and I felt like.
14:34I felt like I liked a lot of these other players more.
14:38So some of the names ahead of him DJ Moore lad McConkie Devante Adams and Mecca Buka Tedaro McMillan.
14:43Those are the five or however many names I've read out names directly ahead of him in consensus.
14:48Yeah, I just mean the volume is not in there.
14:51And I'm not saying he should be like 10 spots higher.
14:54I'm just saying I look at that and I think about the player he is again.
14:59He was rehabbing injury too. So you think maybe he kind of gets more back into shape right coming into the season.
15:05We're I mean, he was in jail this offseason right like it was a very kind of weird offseason for him.
15:11And and I just think he will get more of a role as the season goes on and again my home's looking really good again.
15:19Really moves the needle for me in terms of I didn't I don't have a lot of rice this season like I wasn't that interested in him.
15:26I think that's a mistake and it hasn't looked like a mistake yet, but I'm projecting it to be a mistake later on the season.
15:34All right, you have another, you know, I would say wide receiver to buy really it's kind of multiple pass catchers to buy here.
15:41It's just a more of an overarching approach to week three in trades.
15:44And I just think this is a good opportunity to buy low on bears pass catchers because all the bears pass catchers
15:51we care about are doing nothing through the first two weeks of the NFL season.
15:55And Colson Loveland in particular has been the guy that has stood out for all the wrong reasons this year.
16:01Um, I mean when Greg Dulcich is out producing you, you know that there's a big issue here with Colson Loveland.
16:07So I don't need to dive into the box scores that are basically non-existent for Colson Loveland.
16:12It is worth noting that his role did reduce a little bit last week compared to week one, where basically he was
16:18the leader and routes run for the Chicago bears this past week.
16:22It was still a high number 26 routes run or excuse me, 28 routes run 86% snaps there 72% route participation.
16:28Colson Loveland is still a buy low for me.
16:30I mean, Roman Dunze, Luther burden burden. I wasn't particularly high on entering draft season, but now we're in a situation where
16:37Caleb Williams is going to miss some time. We don't know how long Tyson Bayjant is going to come in to be the starting quarterback Chicago bears.
16:45They're playing the Philadelphia Eagles at home this week.
16:47It's a tough matchup for this entire offense. And the fact that this Ben Johnson offense just looked so amazing in week
16:54one, and they scored 59 points week two, they score a field goal in rainy conditions against a Brian Flores defense.
17:00I just don't want to take anything away from any time a team plays Brian Flores, because when a team is blitzing
17:06you at 80% of your drop backs, that is going to have a completely different offensive output than any other team you face in the NFL.
17:14So, yes, the next time there's play the Vikings, we can readjust and expect less from the offense.
17:19But moving forward, I still think that this Bears team based on how bad their defense is going to still play in a ton of shootouts.
17:26Eagles is obviously tough at home, but then you have the Jets, the Packers, the Falcons, right?
17:31There's going to be plenty of opportunities. Again, they haven't played the lines yet.
17:35What what are those totals are those going to be game worm when it's going to be the Bears versus the Lions?
17:42I mean, those games are going to be absolutely ludicrous in terms of the points scored.
17:46So I think right now with the Bears stock kind of at an all time low, anyone that drafted Bears, Odunze, Burden, love like you're all you're annoyed.
17:54You're pissed because these guys have done anything for me.
17:57So I think that with especially with Beijing coming in as the quarterback, who some people have written talked about how Beijing
18:04may operate the system better than Caleb Williams, just in terms of like a more traditional drop back passer where Caleb Williams
18:10tries to create a little bit more off structure.
18:13If Ben Johnson wants his Jared Goff of the offense, maybe it is Beijing a little bit more than Caleb Williams.
18:19So I don't think that this office is going to like fall off a cliff.
18:23And anytime we talk about when quarterbacks go down and you can buy the talent, the pass catchers, I still believe Loveland is elite.
18:30I know it has not been there, but I still think he's an elite talent, Odunze and Burden.
18:35I'm not as sold on as talent and profiles, but still, man, I just think the upside is so high and they're
18:42they're so cheap because people are just so sick of them.
18:45So those are going to be my buys buying the Bears pass catchers.
18:48Do you know when they play the Lions? Was it week 16, week 18?
18:53The second it's one of his week 12. The other one is week 17 fantasy championship week.
18:57You're getting Bears, Lions. Is that the one in the dome?
19:01No, at Detroit is week 12. So that's destined to be 35 mile per hour gusts.
19:05It's yeah, torrential downpour and the Lions can't play outside apparently.
19:08Yeah. No, yeah, I think this is smart. I don't know how much I want to be paying up for any of the Bears.
19:15I mean, you shouldn't hopefully have to, which is kind of the point of this.
19:20Um, I'm interested in getting them onto my team though.
19:23I do agree with you in that sense. And, you know, like, I don't want to take anything away from a very
19:29weather affected game against a Brian Flores defense. Like that, like, like I'm not going to react to week two.
19:35And your quarterback went down later in the game.
19:37Like, like I just am not going to react to anything in terms of the Bears pass catchers from week two.
19:43Now, if Caleb was out like for the season or something like that, maybe I would feel a little differently.
19:49But the fact that he's not, I, to me, that's just, I think it would be very overreactionary to say like, oh,
19:56Luther Burton three for 32 in week two. He's getting worse.
19:59Like, you know, or Colson Loveland, like his, his breakout this season so far is one catch for three yard.
20:05Like, you know, this is not, who cares? It's Brian Flores in the rain.
20:09Like that's, I'm not that interested in, in reacting to that.
20:12And it's a, it's a much more enjoyable schedule in the back half of the season too.
20:17By the way, just cause you quickly mentioned Philly.
20:19I was going to say, I actually think Devante Smith is also a guy I was considering throwing out as a bye high.
20:26I'm just a very big believer in the opportunity here.
20:29And I was just thinking about it when he said Philly.
20:32So I wanted to throw out that I considered him, although it is funny, his weeks, his fantasy playoffs is Seattle, Houston at San Francisco.
20:39So maybe looking ahead to that tougher on those, those matchups.
20:43But I just want to mention him cause we hadn't really talked about him today.
20:47He's coming off a great game. And you mentioned Philly.
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23:32Learn more at Geico.com. All right. Wide receivers to sell.
23:35Normally we'll have a couple of these. I made a mistake in putting the show sheet together this week, Erickson.
23:41So we only have one wide receiver to sell.
23:44It'll be a little bit more even in future episodes.
23:47That's my bad. I have brought the wide receiver to sell that we're talking about this week.
23:52And it's George Pickens. And this is an interesting one.
23:54He's still ranked quite aggressively in rest-of-season consensus rankings.
23:57He's wide receiver eight. Dallas, of course, has CD layup.
24:00So that means there are two receivers inside the top eight in the rest-of-season rankings.
24:04I actually forget. Where did Pickens' ADP end up?
24:07It wasn't as high as eight, right? It was more like that 10-ish range.
24:11I meant to look that up and I forgot.
24:14At any rate, he's wide receiver eight rest-of-season here in the consensus rankings.
24:17And I don't think he is going to live up to that.
24:21I was very hesitant to invest too heavily in George Pickens this off-season because I felt like CD Lamb, with the high
24:27ankle sprain last year, was not in a position to be his usual dominant, clear stud self.
24:32And Pickens is a very talented player who was more than capable of taking advantage of that opportunity.
24:37But if Lamb was back healthy, I really felt like he was going to be the wide receiver one again.
24:43And he has been awesome. It's only two weeks.
24:46I'm not saying that every single game this season will be the CD Lamb game and there will be no George Pickens games.
24:52I think there will be some in there. And part of me didn't want to pick Pickens here because part of me
24:59wanted to take sort of the approach you usually do, Erickson, and say, let's wait for that big blow-up game and then try to sell off that.
25:06But I think it's early enough in the season, and based on this ranking, clearly folks are still very interested in Pickens,
25:13that the draft capital you spent in August and just the hype around Pickens is still in the back of people's minds.
25:19And I think you can take advantage of that this early in the season.
25:23If you wait two more weeks, and he has two more weeks where he's way vastly outperformed by CD Lamb, then I
25:30think you might start to see that the price that you can get for him go down.
25:35Right now, I still think you can get people to buy into the talent.
25:39I mean, he only had one fewer target than CD Lamb this week.
25:42You can say, oh, well, the opportunity is still there and the talent is still really good.
25:47I think this will be a CD Lamb season, not a George Pickens season.
25:51And obviously CD's not going to have 150 yards with two touchdowns every week, but you get my point.
25:57And I would try to sell while I still think there is still some of that value held to Pickens.
26:03I don't think it's a sell at any cost, right?
26:06This isn't a fire sale, oh no, disastrous decision that you drafted him.
26:09But I think you can get more for him than the value he's going to give you rest of the season as
26:16the number two receiver in this offense. And if this defense does end up, start playing better, it hasn't yet.
26:21But if this defense does get better with some of these young additions and Cale Downs and everything throughout the course of
26:28the season, then maybe you see even fewer shootouts for this team and there's even just less to go around, smaller piece of the pie.
26:35The last thing I'll say here, a lot of tough defenses, you know, on this slate.
26:40Like we don't know quite yet about Baltimore in week three, at Houston in week four, at Philly, and then home for
26:46Philly, obviously two games against them still to come.
26:49San Francisco's looked good at Seattle's in week 13, a late bye was week 14, which I don't love having if I
26:55need to try and sneak into the playoffs. At the Rams in week 15, that defense might look a lot better by them.
27:02Jacksonville week 16. So my point is there's a lot of tough defenses.
27:05There's some easier games too. It's kind of an up and down schedule in terms of difficulty, but that's also in the back of my mind, Erickson.
27:13Yeah, I think that what's hurting Pickens, at least so far this year, has been the touchdown variance not working in his favor, right?
27:20It's going to players like Lamb, who was a, last year, he was the guy that was left out of the touchdown party, right?
27:27He didn't score a lot of touchdowns in 2025.
27:30Obviously missed out with the injury. Jake Ferguson has a role in the red zone.
27:34That's really what he is, a touchdown or bust type of tight end, as I will get to as well when I'm
27:40talking about Dallas Cowboys to potentially sell. But you're not happy with Pickens if, after two weeks against the Giants and Commanders, wide receiver 66, wide receiver 41.
27:49Like, that's definitely not what you draft the George Pickens at the end of round two to get when he has really good matchups.
27:56And even upcoming, like Ravens and Texans, like those are two tougher matchups defensively that the Dallas Cowboys are going to have to take on.
28:03So I agree with you. And I think too, you're looking at it from a market perspective where George Pickens, wide receiver eight.
28:09Like, that's why I am trying to sell this player because I think you can get a lot for his return.
28:15I would say that he is a particularly tough player to rank.
28:19In this range, because all the guys around him have are like injured or like not injured or we're not sure when
28:25they're coming back because it's the neighbors, Collins, Pickens, Flowers.
28:28Like those are some guys that are right around him, at least in my rankings.
28:33And it's a matter of, OK, can I justify trading Pickens for Flowers when I don't know when Flowers is coming back?
28:39Like, even though a healthy Flowers, I like more than Pickens.
28:42Like, it's like a scenario. OK, yeah. So yes.
28:45And I was somebody who was low on Flowers this summer.
28:48But I would I saw enough in that first half that once he's back healthy, I he's so impressive.
28:53I would rather have him than Pickens. Um, I like I mean, Devante Smith, who I just talked about, is wide receiver 12 in rest of season rankings.
29:02I would trade Pickens for Smith straight up. I think in a heartbeat right now.
29:06And I think that's doable. Yeah, I think that's probably the move to make, honestly, is to trade Pickens for it.
29:12I'm going to update my rankings now because especially with the Dallas Goddard injury, where he's going to be out for a month.
29:19I mean, if Zach Ertz is out there, Devante Smith is going to get it.
29:23Yeah, I mean, maybe maybe maybe Devante Smith is screwed, but I don't think I think Devante Smith is going to continue to be a wide receiver one.
29:31He always steps up when he's given opportunities. And that was so apparent.
29:35What was the difference between week one and week two?
29:38Dallas Goddard basically didn't play in week two because he was injured.
29:41And Devante Smith had a monster game because he's good.
29:44So I think that's a really sharp move. So you pointed out the injured guys right after Pickens, Zay Flowers, Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins.
29:51The next three guys in consensus rankings are Devante Smith, Drake, London, Parker, Washington.
29:55I think I would trade Pickens for all of those.
29:58Like London, like we know we're getting Michael Penix back this week.
30:01So I think that that ranking is going to look low now.
30:05Again, he's terrible without Penix, but I think he's going to look very good with Penix back.
30:10Parker Washington, we've talked about has just been awesome.
30:12And you have ranked as like wide receiver eight rest of season.
30:16You basically flip him in Pickens or something like that.
30:19And Devante Smith, we just mentioned. So like I would take any of those three over Pickens rest of season.
30:25And you're right. It's not that I want to bury Pickens.
30:28It's that this market I think is just way too.
30:31He was wide receiver 10 in real time ADP at the end of draft season.
30:35I just looked it up. And, you know, some of the guys who have dropped and the reason he's moved up is like AJ Brown was ahead, obviously.
30:43With the injury stuff, he's not anymore. Jake London's dropped down.
30:46So stuff like that, obviously. But, yeah, I just look at this and I go, he was wide receiver 10.
30:52Now he's wide receiver 8. He's done nothing to prove that that is the smart decision so far this year, at least
30:58even though he was great last year. And, yeah, there's just names behind him I would rather have.
31:04So I think he's a good sell for all the reasons that I listed.
31:08I actually wasn't sure how you were going to feel about it.
31:11So I'm glad to hear that you are in agreement with me because I thought you might say, well, listen, this guy's way too good to be selling.
31:19And you know the bounce back's coming and their touchdown regression is coming.
31:23I think we have Pickens in the league, the tailgate league with you, me, and D-Row as well.
31:28So we need a bit of a bounce back there.
31:31So I was expecting you to not be on board with this.
31:35I'm glad you are. Well, I think that the way that you approached it was really smart, where you're not necessarily burying
31:41Pickens the player, but you're looking at a potential market inefficiency with Pickens.
31:45And if he's valued at this and I can get all of these other guys that I just like a little bit
31:51more than Pickens because they're clear cut number one wide receivers on their team, a little bit less of a target ambiguity.
31:57Pickens, obviously, we know has a super high ceiling, right?
32:00If CeeDee Lamb goes out and stubs his toe, well, this is going to look really bad because Pickens is going to
32:07freaking go nuclear if CeeDee Lamb misses time. But if that's not the case, and it's still more of a bit of
32:13a muddled receiver room, and Pickens is not necessarily capitalizing on all those 50-50 balls like he was last year, yeah, there's
32:19a scenario where some of these other guys outproduce him.
32:22So I think that that's a good call because it's about the strong return.
32:26And remember, with a lot of these trades too, it's impossible to get a player where, okay, I'm going to trade a
32:33player at his very peak, and then once I get rid of him, he's going to do absolutely nothing for the rest of the season.
32:40Like that is just really, really hard to do.
32:43Like Pickens is going to have games. Like he's going to have some blow-up games.
32:47He's going to go for 100 yards. He's going to score touchdowns.
32:50But is it going to be as consistent as maybe some of these other guys or as frequent?
32:56Maybe not. And that's the bet that you're willing to make.
32:59So yeah, I think it's a good, smart move.
33:01I can't quite get to enough conviction to say I would trade him straight up for Garrett Wilson, despite Garrett Wilson being a buy.
33:08But I wonder if you could do something like Pickens for Garrett Wilson plus like Kyle Manungai or something like that as
33:15just like a get another piece with it and take a couple of swings.
33:19So that's another thing I would look into with him as well.
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33:38All right, Eric, so you've got a tight end to sell for us this week.
33:43It's going to be sticking with the Dallas Cowboys.
33:45Jake Ferguson. Jake Ferguson. Tight end for the Dallas Cowboys.
33:48Like we kind of alluded to talking about George Pickens, he's going to have some bounce back weeks at some point.
33:54He's still going to be a big part of this passing game.
33:58And what does that mean for Jake Ferguson is not a lot of volume.
34:02So last week, Jake Ferguson really made his hay because he scored two touchdowns, but he was still buried in terms of the target share in this offense.
34:10Four targets, four catches for four to three yards.
34:12He ran a route on just 64% of the Dallas Cowboys dropbacks.
34:16This is an immediate sell for me through two games.
34:19Jake Ferguson ranks 18th in route participation, 20th in snap rate, and 27th in target share among all tight ends.
34:25He is a 9.2% target share. I think that he is very touchdown dependent, which look, when you play in the Cowboys
34:31offense, there's always a chance that you could score a touchdown.
34:34But if the touchdown variance does go back in favor of George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, if he doesn't catch these touchdowns four
34:40for 43, you're like, this is the Mark Andrews stat line.
34:44Like, what are we doing here? So I don't like Jake Ferguson as a tight end that you can bet on long-term
34:50for the rest of the season, especially because it's not just Pickens and Lamb that are factoring into this offense.
34:56Also, Ryan and Florenai, like he has a bigger role in this offense standalone, even alongside a healthy Piggens and CeeD Lamb.
35:02Florenai had six targets, more than Jake Ferguson did last week, five catches for 23 yards.
35:07So I think that Ferguson scares me, and I would be willing to sell high just based on the touchdowns.
35:13If you just look historically, and this is a prop bet that I bet every single time, is Jake Ferguson under his receptions prop.
35:20He averages under three and a half catches when Lamb, Pickens, and Florenai are all in the lineup at the same time and healthy.
35:26So for me, he is an easy sell, especially with upcoming matchups against Baltimore Ravens.
35:31He's drawing coverage from Kyle Hamilton. No thanks. Get out of here.
35:34So I'm going to trade. I want to sell high on Jake Ferguson.
35:38The literal definition of a sell high tight end.
35:41Like could not be a more obvious guy. He has six catches a season.
35:45A third of them have gone for touchdowns. Dude is under 50 yards total through two games.
35:50It's actually kind of hilarious. So if you look at the game logs on the player cards on fantasypros.com for any player,
35:56if a player has a really down performance in any given category, it's sort of highlighted red.
36:01And if they have a really good performance in a category, it's highlighted green.
36:05And you don't often see them sort of flipped.
36:08But if you look at the fantasy points and the snap percentage, which are the first two columns for Jake Ferguson.
36:14In week one, it's red on the point scored, but green on the snap percentage.
36:18So he was getting a lot of snaps, but he didn't do anything with them.
36:22And then in week two, it's green on the production, but red on the snap percentage.
36:27A lot of production, but didn't really have as many opportunities.
36:30That is just a screaming guy to sell because those should be more aligned and correlated.
36:35Maybe not correlated statistically, but they should look more similar if you look at most player cards.
36:40So I just find that to be hilarious that those are actually flipped because you don't see that often.
36:45And I think it's a great sign of if you're playing 60% of the snaps, but you're tight end four on the
36:52week, that's probably not going to last. So I think selling off of those touchdowns, especially like tight end.
36:57There's been a lot of movement in the tight end rankings so far in the early season compared to where we were.
37:03Like, I think you could be looking at the Harold Fannin manager who's feeling down and say, oh, hey, I'll go trade you to Jake Ferguson.
37:11You're actually getting a player in a good offense instead of a bad one.
37:15You know, Isaiah Likely, we were really excited about a week ago.
37:18I don't know how excited I am if Dart ends up missing time.
37:22Kyle Pitts is obviously cratered in the rankings. So, you know, if maybe you were a late tight end guy in Dallas
37:29Goddard and now you need a tight end to replace him.
37:32I think these are the types of names you can look to move Ferguson for or away to that manager.
37:38Yeah. I mean, who'd you rather have? Rondae Gadsden or Jake Ferguson?
37:41I'd rather have Gadsden with the injuries to the Chargers tight end room.
37:45I wouldn't have said that before the injuries, obviously, but yeah.
37:48So if you miss out on Gadsden on waivers because he's going to get picked up in a lot of leagues, see if they'll take Jake Ferguson.
37:56Send the trade. I would. Would you trade Ferguson for Ferguson?
37:59Ferguson for Ferguson? Yes. Yes, I would. Take the upside swing on Terrence?
38:03Jake for Terrence? Yes. Go. Jake for Terrence. Who says no?
38:06Yeah. No, I would too. So, yeah. I think that's a great call and an easy – almost too obvious of a call, Erickson, I'll say.
38:13But I'm glad you brought it up. Sometimes you got to take the layups, man.
38:18Yes. We don't get a lot of layups on this show, so take them when we got them.
38:23Buy, sell, or hold is how we'll wrap up the show.
38:26A reminder for everybody – I said this in the Running Backs episode, but just a reminder in case you missed it.
38:33This is not a ranking of the three players.
38:35This is based on their market values, one player to buy, one to sell, and one to hold.
38:40We'll start off with actually a couple of names we just talked about in the Pickens segment.
38:45Parker Washington, Drake London, Jalen Waddell. Buy, sell, or hold.
38:48Parker Washington, Drake London, Jalen Waddell. I'm going to hold Parker Washington.
38:52You'd have to rip him from my cold dead corpse to take Parker Washington away from any rosters that I have.
38:58And he's just on the stardom path, dude. And the fact that the Jaguars still haven't paid him, I am honestly giddy
39:04thinking about the matchups between him and Christian Gonzalez.
39:07Gonzalez for week three. Because it's not as simple as, oh, well, Gonzalez is going to shut him down.
39:12Because of the way that he is so twitched up, it's so different than like a DK Metcalf.
39:17Where it's so easier for a man coverage cornerback like Gonzalez to take someone like Metcalf away.
39:22Because he's just not as twitchy. He's not as able to create separation with certain moves and he's bigger.
39:28Whereas Washington, man, like Gonzalez is going to have his hands full trying to cover Parker Washington.
39:33So that's something I'm really looking forward to. And I think that Washington is going to win his fair share of reps against Gonzo.
39:40So I'm looking forward to that. Keeping Parker Washington.
39:42Drake London is the buy. He was my buy last week.
39:45And it didn't obviously work out, but I made it with the caveat.
39:49It's like, we're just waiting on Michael Penix Jr.
39:52To become the starting quarterback for the Falcons. And that was reported yesterday that he's going to start in week three for the foreseeable future.
39:59As long as his ACLs can stand up. And Drake London, as a reminder, last 14 games with Michael Penix Jr.
40:05Averages nearly almost 20 full PPR points per game.
40:08So right now the Drake London manager is pulling their hair out.
40:11I don't, the thing is like, I don't even know if people realize how good he is with Michael Penix Jr.
40:17He is elite with Michael Penix Jr. You don't need, it's a great tool.
40:21You don't need the fantasy pros with or without tool to know how great he is with Michael Penix Jr.
40:27Dude, it's, he's so good. So the fact that he's been so bad, I think it just leads, it like creates a very small window.
40:34Because everyone knows he's going to be better with Penix.
40:37But to what extent, I think it's still an opportunity where you can get him before Thursday night football.
40:43And even if he's okay on Thursday, he's going to remain a buy low for me, especially because we're just going to see improvement from this Falcons offense.
40:51Now they actually have a quarterback under center. I feel like you should really just like toss the first two weeks of
40:57the season from the Falcons offense because it was kind of inoperable, right?
41:01With Cooper Rush and Jack Strand as the quarterback.
41:04So what do you mean? Kind of. Fair. It was inoperable.
41:07Inoperable. It was totally non-functional. Well, besides when they gave them all Bichon like 50 times in week one.
41:12That worked. So by default, that makes Jalen Waddle my sell.
41:16I like all these players. So, but him coming off a monster game, Bo Nix, I think they kind of look a little shaky for the most part.
41:24But he wouldn't be my sell just because I don't want to get rid of Parker Washington and Drake London.
41:29You can definitely get on the cheap. So I will.
41:32I think Waddle is actually kind of a smart sell because I think there's going to be a lot of big games.
41:39And a lot of duds. I just, like we've seen this with Sean Payton before.
41:43Like, like I, I think the truth is going to be somewhere in the middle of his week one and his week two.
41:50But I think like kind of the easy sell of these three.
41:53I actually, I'm going to, I'm going to switch the other two from what you said.
41:58I would rather, I almost wish I had drafted Drake London and was holding and can now like just enjoy what's to come.
42:04But maybe not buy him because Penix has this really long injury history.
42:08So I'm a little more nervous about what if he gets hurt again and it falls off.
42:13I'm very willing to buy high, the highest on Parker Washington.
42:16Like, like obvious, I have him a lot of places.
42:19So like, I, you know, like you, it would be more of a hold in terms of my real leagues.
42:25But like, I will, I will pay through the moon to go get him.
42:29I just could not be more of a full believer.
42:32And again, that, that wide receiver 14 ranking is too low for his rest of season ranking.
42:37In my opinion, he should be in wide receiver one unequivocally.
42:40So I would be willing to buy high on him.
42:43I have him wide receiver eight. I mentioned it on the last show.
42:47So the guys I have ahead of him is Chase, St.
42:50Brown, JSN, Puka, Jefferson, Lamb, Olave. I was going to, I was waiting for Olave.
42:54That was the one where I was going to say, I think I'd rather have Olave than him.
42:59I don't know if you were going to have him ahead or not.
43:03To be fully transparent, I have him one spot ahead of London.
43:07So if I had London and I could flip him for Parker Washington, I would do that to the points that you
43:13made about just the long-term risk of Michael Penix Jr.
43:16being healthy for the rest of the season. And if, dare I say, we have to go back to the, to a
43:22Cooper Rush, gross, gross, grossness of the Falcons. Yeah.
43:25Another wide receiver trio here. Jalen Coker, Matthew Golden, Terry McLaurin.
43:28We talked about some of these guys earlier on the episode as well.
43:32But buy, sell, or hold. Jalen Coker, Matthew Golden, Terry McLaurin.
43:35I think I would probably sell Jalen Coker after two really strong games.
43:39I think that the Panthers offense might struggle a little bit more on the Rodans, Cleveland, two stronger perimeter cornerbacks.
43:45And he's obviously been the most hyped up guy.
43:47Matthew Golden, I want to hold because there is no Jaden Reed.
43:51And he and Christian Gonzalez, or excuse me, Christian Watson have really been just gobbling up a lot of the targets in the Packers passing attack.
43:58Terry is tougher. I think it's probably just a hold because they're playing the Seahawks this week and his stock's just going to go down.
44:05So I don't want to buy him now, but I do recognize that he is going to probably finish much higher than
44:12what he has done the first two weeks of the season.
44:15So I'm pretty sure I just listed off two holds, Worm, if my memory serves me correct.
44:20Do you have any reservations with Golden, with Tucker Craft coming back and getting healthier every single week?
44:25That's something that I was just thinking about as I was going through these names here and maybe flip-flopping Golden and Coker.
44:31I definitely just want to hold McLaurin just because his stock is...
44:35I don't know. This one's tough, Worm. Help me out here.
44:38Throw me a bone. You know, the question on Golden is interesting.
44:42I think maybe I would be more worried about Craft if, you know, not for the Jaden Reed injury.
44:47Like, there's only so many players that they're going to be throwing to in this offense going forward.
44:52And I still really like Jordan Love, like the quarterback, obviously.
44:55And Golden, you know, has the first-round draft capital that if he does kind of put it together this season, he was
45:02just so bad last year that I think people totally wrote him off.
45:06It used to be that receivers didn't break out until like year three.
45:09I'm not saying he's going to have this huge, massive breakout season in year two or anything like that.
45:15But just because he was a total non-factor in year one doesn't mean he can't take a step forward and show that
45:21first-round, you know, pedigree here in year two. So I'm not that worried about Craft, again, because I think it's Craft, Watson, and Golden.
45:28And that's like the three. If there was a fourth name in there or more like the Packers have had in other
45:35years, then I'd be more nervous about it. So I am interested in Golden.
45:39I agree this is a tough one. I mean, that's why I picked these names is because I kind of struggle with these three.
45:46So I'm glad to hear that you're struggling with them as well.
45:49I think if it were me, I would probably rather, I think I would hold Coker, actually.
45:54I think I would hold Coker. It's hard, dude.
45:57I think I would sell Terry, but it's not that I want to sell him.
46:01It's that he's ranked highest of these three in the consensus.
46:04And he's done the least. And he's done the least, but he has the name brand.
46:09And so maybe you can still get the most for him.
46:12But then the quarterback stuff, I mean, Ian Rappaport, by the way, while we were taping this, was saying on the Pat
46:18McAfee show that, you know, they're hoping Jaden can avoid the IR.
46:22Like he'll miss time, but maybe even avoid missing that much time.
46:25So maybe that actually means that Terry should be the buy.
46:28I don't know. It's really tough. I actually struggled to kind of sort through this one.
46:33I don't want to sell Jalen Coker because I believe in him as a player.
46:37I don't really want to sell any of these guys.
46:40I also don't, the true answer is I want to hold all three.
46:44I don't really want to buy or sell any of them.
46:47I wouldn't be holding all three of these guys.
46:50I guess I'm like thinking about who would I want on my team for the rest of the season?
46:55No, no other questions asked, right? Well, like I said, this isn't a ranking, but how would you rank them?
47:01Because maybe that'll help kind of sort through it.
47:04I have ranked Terry Coker down or downs. That's what I want.
47:07I just want Josh to just add him to this conversation.
47:10It's interesting though, because if you had replaced McLaurin with digs, I would have been like easy sell digs.
47:16Sure. Easy. That would have been really easy. Why do I want to make it easy on you?
47:21Yeah. Well, that's, that's why you're putting the show sheet together because you make it tough on the analysts here.
47:27So I have it ranked McLaurin, Coker, Golden. But when I say that, when I look at how closely ranked they are,
47:33I'm kind of actually surprised how down McLaurin is.
47:36Even when I'm trying to capture the fact that he actually has better splits with Marcus Mariota.
47:41It's not like he falls off a cliff, but that's also the context of him having no target competition last year.
47:47He has more target competition than did last year between Stefan Diggs playing in the offense with Antonio Williams, potentially taking on a larger role as a rookie.
47:55Who's kind of shown a little bit through the first two weeks of the season.
47:59Terry's also older. I don't know. He's always been sneaky old.
48:02Yeah. Yes. He's an older receiver. So I don't know if he's someone that's going to continue to get better as the season progresses.
48:09So he obviously has the largest body of work of these players.
48:13So he feels like the safest to just hold on to because yeah, I know I'm going to get Terry's probably gonna
48:19be top 24 guy when it's all said and done.
48:22But if you're really chasing like upside ceiling, I mean, Coker and T-Mac are just dominating.
48:27All the targets in the Panthers offense. Like it is like not even close of 1A, 1B.
48:32I mean, it's 1A, 1A essentially between T-Mac and Coker.
48:35I think it's important to remember too with Carolina that they've gotten the Bears and then the Falcons who they always play
48:41really well against to start the season. So this offense could be coming down a bit.
48:46I think the correct, I might even say I agree with this.
48:49I think the correct answer here is to sell Coker to buy Terry and to hold Golden.
48:54I think if we're trying to be most objective, that's like it's probably smart to sell a guy like Coker who has
49:00had two really good games but against very easy opponents and is probably long-term the number two in the offense.
49:06I think it's smart to be looking to buy a guy like Terry McLaurin.
49:10If, hey, maybe Jayden's not out that long, big body of work.
49:14We know he's a good player at the very least and it's probably smart to hold a guy like Golden rather than
49:20go buy him, you know, given what he looked like last year and the Tucker craft of it all or to sell
49:26him given that he has the pedigree going up.
49:29So I think the correct answer is sell Coker, buy Terry, hold Matthew Golden.
49:33But I don't know if emotionally, like I don't want to be selling Coker.
49:37So that kind of makes it hard to do all the others.
49:41I think I'm pivoting and maybe I'm just going to sell Terry and just be like, you know what?
49:46Not dealing with this. Older receiver hasn't been his number one the last two games.
49:50His quarterback is hurt. And the fact that I lay all that out and his value is higher than those two other
49:57players, maybe you're just getting ahead of the curve here.
50:00We're skating where the puck is going to be.
50:02And that's Terry behind these two guys at the end of the season.
50:06And what we're talking about, it's like, man, I wish I had just kept Coker and not traded him to get Terry.
50:12Because again, like this means like, so you're going to trade Coker to get TMC, like McLaurin.
50:17Do you want to do that? Not really. I don't know.
50:21So, yeah, I think I got to make some adjustments here, especially with Terry facing Seattle this week.
50:26I mean, he's not going up after this week.
50:28So I think I'd rather have Coker. I'd rather have Golden.
50:32So I think Terry by default, especially based on his market value, you can get these types of guys for him.
50:38So that's the approach I'm going to do. Yeah.
50:40We've got one more trio here. Tight ends. Isaiah, likely Travis, Kelsey, Juwan Johnson.
50:44Again, likely Kelsey and Johnson. I'm going to hold on to Juwan Johnson.
50:48It's just solid, solid producer has good chemistry with Tyler shock.
50:51And the saints office is going to continue to open up, especially with an easier schedule upcoming.
50:56So I'll keep Juwan like he's probably my buy still was the target leader.
51:00Despite the fact that Jackson Dart went down on Monday Night Football, I expect him to still be involved heavily.
51:06We'll see how things kind of shake out with the quarterback play.
51:09But I think that just creates a buying opportunity for a tight end.
51:13And then Kelsey would probably be my sell high just because he's looked so good.
51:18Maybe I'm just capitulating because I didn't draft any of Travis Kelsey.
51:21And he looks like a guy that I think they said this on the athletic podcast, but he looks like a guy
51:27that was getting ready for a wedding. That's exactly what he looks like now getting ready for his wedding.
51:33He's in he's in his wedding shape, which is why he looks so good out there.
51:37So I just think you can probably get the most for Kelsey unless you can get more for likely, which I also wouldn't necessarily disagree with.
51:45But based on the quarterback injury, I would assume that people are not trying to get likely.
51:50Yeah, I'd be interested in buying likely based on the quarterback injury and and just believing in the talent and what we saw in week one.
51:57And then I'm probably holding Johnson and selling Kelsey.
52:00OK, so lockstep. So that one was that one was easy.
52:03Yeah, sorry. I made it so easy. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
52:08Thanks, everybody, for checking out our wide receiver and tight ends version of the players to buy and sell.
52:13Again, if you missed it, running backs and quarterbacks episode should already be released for you.
52:18For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly. Thanks for tuning in.
52:20We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
52:25If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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