10 Fantasy Football Questions That Will Define 2026: Sleepers, Breakouts & Draft Values (Ep. 2173)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 10 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 5, 2026
Published
Sat, September 5, 2026
28
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersDalton KincaidMakai LemonParker WashingtonPuka NacuaAaron JonesBrian Thomas Jr.Caleb WilliamsCarnell TateChristian WatsonDallas GoedertDeVonta SmithDontayvion WicksHarold Fannin
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeRole24:56
Fitzmaurice notes that Aaron Jones has shown signs of declining effectiveness, leading to a shift in the Minnesota backfield where Jordan Mason is expected to take on the primary rushing load, while Jones serves as a 'Swiss army knife' piece.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeMatchup32:02
The source expresses significant concern for Brian Thomas Jr. early in the season due to a brutal schedule of opposing cornerbacks, including Denzel Ward, Patrick Surtain, and Sauce Gardner, suggesting he may be a prime buy-low candidate by midseason.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveUsage25:59
Despite concerns about the Raiders' offense, the source notes that Bowers is expected to command significant volume and talent-based production, with Clint Kubiak's presence in the system providing confidence that he can overcome defensive attention.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout65:56
Fitz remains high on Brock Bowers, arguing that his disappointing previous season was due to injury and a poor offensive environment rather than lack of talent. With a healthier offensive line, the addition of Tyler Linderbaum, and Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Fitz believes Bowers is positioned for a breakout. He suggests Bowers is capable of high-end WR1 numbers and could eventually be viewed as a top-10 fantasy pick.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection32:00
Fitzmaurice highlights Caleb Williams as a key piece of a high-octane Chicago Bears offense that is expected to participate in high-scoring games due to a porous defense.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeBust51:41
Carnell Tate is a risky draft pick due to significant concerns regarding the Tennessee offense and quarterback Cam Ward. While Tate's talent is not in question, his fantasy outlook is capped by the potential for the entire passing attack to struggle.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue42:49
Christian Watson is a consistent value throughout draft season, currently ranked as a WR3 despite having WR1 upside. He is poised for a breakout with reduced target competition in Green Bay and a projected increase in pass rate over expected. Watson produced at a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown pace when healthy last year.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
PositiveValue10:09
Fitzmaurice highlights Dallas Goedert as a strong late-round value option at the tight end position within the Philadelphia Eagles' offense.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage37:36
The source highlights Kincaid's elite efficiency metrics from last year, including leading all tight ends in yards per route run and target per route run. If his route participation increases to 65-70%, he is projected to reach top-five tight end status.
Insight pageNegativeInjury39:17
Fitz expresses concern regarding Kincaid's PCL injury, noting that the team may manage his snaps, which could limit his ability to build upon his high-efficiency numbers from last season.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveValue6:33
Fitzmaurice identifies Devontae Smith as a high-value target, noting he has been his WR1 in several drafts where he prioritized other positions early. The potential for Smith to rotate interchangeably with Makai Lemon in the slot and Z-receiver roles is expected to boost his fantasy utility in a more imaginative offense.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveBreakout16:51
Derek Brown identifies Dontaevion Wicks as a prime breakout candidate and late-round flyer. Wicks has elite underlying metrics, ranking 3rd and 24th in separation and 6th and 7th in route win rate over the last two years. If he secures a full-time role as the X-receiver, his talent could lead to a significant fantasy impact.
Insight pageHarold Fannin
PositiveBreakout35:15
Fitz projects Harold Fannin as a future Tier 1 tight end, noting his impressive 2024 production at Bowling Green and his ability to lead the Browns in receptions, yards, and touchdowns despite poor quarterback play. A future upgrade at QB is expected to boost his fantasy value.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection7:18
Derek Brown argues that Jalen Hurts is undervalued, citing his elite efficiency when targeting the short middle of the field—ranking first in completion rate, sixth in yards per attempt, and fourth in passer rating among 32 qualifying quarterbacks over the last two years. Brown expects the new coaching staff to utilize more motion, play-action, and middle-field passing to elevate Hurts' performance.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveProjection54:02
Jared Goff is a reliable, high-floor QB target available in the 11th round. He has consistently produced over 4,400 yards and 29 touchdowns annually for four years, benefiting from a high-powered Lions offense and a favorable schedule.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveUsage48:05
Jonah Coleman is viewed as the ideal Sean Payton running back. While the Denver backfield is crowded, Coleman is a priority target who could potentially usurp J.K. Dobbins or R.J. Harvey to become the lead back in the rotation.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveValue23:39
Fitzmaurice and Brown both view Jordan Mason as a major draft steal who is likely to serve as the lead back in Minnesota. Brown projects Mason for 1,000 rushing yards, noting the team will likely shift to a run-heavy, play-action offense. Mason is currently being drafted as an RB4 despite the potential for 20-carry games.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveUsage3:49
The Eagles are prioritizing Makai Lemon in the slot, with the team ensuring he saw 15 snaps in the final preseason game despite resting starters to compensate for his missed training camp time. Fitz notes the potential for Lemon and Devontae Smith to operate interchangeably between the slot and Z-receiver roles to maximize their matchups.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout47:18
Makai Lemon is a top rookie target who could potentially outperform Devontae Smith in the Eagles' offense. He demonstrated elite efficiency in college with over three yards per target against both man and zone coverage, paired with crisp route running and reliable hands.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveSleeper55:38
Malik Willis is an undervalued QB21 target who offers significant rushing upside. He is compared to Justin Fields' previous fantasy production and is expected to provide top-15 QB value at his current draft cost.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue41:02
The source identifies Parker Washington as the best value in drafts, currently going as WR29 in the mid-sixth round. He is expected to secure the WR1 role for the Jaguars, with the source comparing his potential breakout trajectory to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice.
Insight pagePositiveValue41:46
Parker Washington is a top-tier value at his current WR29 ADP in the mid-sixth round. Debro highlights his massive upside, noting he was producing at a 22.3 PPR points per game pace during a four-game stretch last season.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection63:19
Puka Nacua is a potential season-defining player. In his healthy games last season, he averaged 27.4 PPR points per game, indicating massive ceiling potential if he maintains that production level.
Insight pageNegativeBreakout63:20
Debra projects Puka Nacua as a season-defining player with a massive ceiling, noting he averaged 27.4 PPR points per game in healthy contests last year. By adjusting for touchdown variance, he could have averaged 26 PPR points per game, a mark rarely reached by wide receivers since 2013. Despite some draft risk concerns, Debra advocates drafting him at the 1.03, viewing him as a potential highest point-per-game producer.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection10:31
Fitzmaurice notes that Saquon Barkley is a compelling reason to be interested in the Philadelphia Eagles' offense this season, suggesting the team's overall offensive outlook has improved.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeProjection12:16
The source notes uncertainty regarding the Washington Commanders' offense, despite the presence of pass-catchers like Terry McLaurin and Stephon Diggs, due to concerns about the offensive line's ability to support the scheme.
Insight pageTetairoa McMillan
NegativeProjection66:35
Debra notes that Tetairoa McMillan had a solid rookie season, finishing as a top-24 wide receiver, though he did not reach the level of a season-defining player in 2025.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveUsage11:37
Fitzmaurice is highly interested in Zay Flowers' potential under new play-caller Declan Doyle, specifically looking for increased red-zone usage. Flowers managed a 1,200-yard season last year despite the Ravens throwing fewer passes than any other team, suggesting significant untapped upside.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:22Hello everybody, welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:25I'm Ryan Warmly joined by Pat Fitzmaurice and by Derek Brown.
0:29And we are talking some key questions ahead of the 2026 Fantasy Football season.
0:33Guys, this is one of my favorite shows that we do every week in season on Fridays.
0:39Our Matchup Previews sort of key questions of every matchup series that we've been doing for the last few years with the three of us.
0:47And last year we decided to sort of run it back ahead of the season as a season long key questions.
0:53We're doing it again this year. Really excited for this episode.
0:57Always fun doing these questions and sort of talking through our different thoughts with each other.
1:02Debra, how you doing? Doing good, man. We got a lot of good topics on the ledger.
1:07So shout out to you for coming up these questions and a lot of teams we're going to discuss.
1:13And I'm not going to say I have some polarizing takes, but I think some interesting ones along the way.
1:20I am very excited to hear those. Fitz, are you looking forward to today's program?
1:25I am. We're just at a fun point here on the precipice of the season about to find out how very, very
1:32wrong we were about so many things going in.
1:34Hopefully we were right about a few of them.
1:37But, you know, we've always got this unwavering confidence in how we're assessing players coming in.
1:42And then week one just sends so many of these ideas crashing down.
1:46So hopefully not too many, but let's let's find out where we are a week before the regular season or so.
1:53This is this is, I think, for me, the last sort of big picture episode we're doing, because next week we're just into week one coverage.
2:01And it's kind of nice to flip that switch from the macro level to more micro and just thinking about individual matchups and week to week stuff.
2:10It's yeah, I think we're all kind of ready for that.
2:13It's a long draft season. This is sort of the final bow on our season long macro level thoughts here.
2:20By the way, as you guys know, I went to all three Orioles Rockies games this week, so I am losing my voice a bit.
2:28Apologies for anybody listening, doing my best to power through here.
2:31The Orioles were one miracle catch away from getting swept by the terrible Rockies.
2:36So not feeling great about that. Let's go ahead and dive in here.
2:40Just a reminder for everybody. All of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
2:46You can, of course, navigate to weekly rankings there as you start to get into lineup setting season.
2:52Number one key question here. We've got 10 of them for you.
2:56Which young new play caller ends up being the biggest boost to his players' fantasy value this season?
3:01And I'm highlighting three here. Declan Doyle, Sean Mannion, or David Blau.
3:05Fitz, I'll start with you. Who are you most interested in seeing what they can do for their new offense's fantasy value?
3:12I think it's Sean Mannion. The Philly offense just looks so drab and ineffective.
3:17Under Kevin Petillo last year. I just feel like there's going to be a bounce with some new blood.
3:23And hopefully things are a little less stale. Like, for instance, in the final preseason game, the Eagles wanted to play Makai
3:30Lemon, even though they were basically resting all of their starters.
3:33They just wanted to get Lemon on the field after he missed pretty much most of training camp and all of the
3:40preseason to that point with a hamstring injury. So, Lemon played 15 snaps.
3:44We think Makai Lemon is going to play in the slot a lot this year.
3:49He played nine snaps of his 15 outside in week three.
3:53And, like, just the possibility that it's going to be Makai Lemon and Devontae Smith sort of operating interchangeably, like between the
4:00slot and out wide is the Z receiver. Like, that's kind of cool.
4:04That could be a way to maximize both of these guys, get them into some favorable matchups.
4:09I'm excited that we are going to see something different because that offense was just so dull and underachieving last year.
4:16Debra, I saw you react to this pick by Fitz.
4:19I wasn't sure who Fitz was going to pick.
4:22I was really sure who you were going to pick here.
4:25So, obviously, you can go ahead and jump on that.
4:29And just so everybody's aware, Fitzy and I did not compare notes before this.
4:33So, I love that he went with Sean Mannion because I'm absolutely in on this, man.
4:38And I've got numbers to back this up because I know everybody's got their takes about Jalen Hurts and his ability or
4:45inability supposedly to throw over the middle and stuff.
4:48But to Fitzy's point about an unimaginative, vanilla, horrible offense, last year the Philadelphia Eagles, 29th in motion rate, 29th in play action, 31st in yak per reception.
4:57So, any easy button throws or anything that can help out the quarterback, the Philadelphia Eagles said, eh, we're good.
5:03Eh, we don't need any of that. With Sean Mannion, I think you're going to get all of the above.
5:09You're going to get yak. You're going to get motion.
5:13You're going to get play action. And you're going to get Hurts throwing over the middle of the field, which if anybody's
5:20actually been paying attention to the training camp stuff, he's doing and he's doing well.
5:24And I've got numbers to back this up, boys.
5:27Over the last two years amongst 32 qualifying quarterbacks, when Jalen Hurts has targeted the short middle area of the field amongst
5:34those 32 quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts, first to completion rate, six in yards per attempt, fourth in pass rating, second in passing success
5:41rate, and he has the eighth lowest off target rate.
5:44But I've been told, boys, by the masses that Jalen Hurts cannot throw over the middle of the field and he's not good at it.
5:52Yeah. I think the Eagles offense is going to cook this year.
5:56I didn't find myself drafting a ton of Eagles early in the summer and draft season.
6:01The last few drafts, I have really felt just like when I'm on the clock that quite often the best value is an Eagle.
6:09Sometimes that's a late tight end with Dallas Goddard.
6:12Sometimes that's an early receiver with Devontae Smith, who's been my wide receiver one in a couple of drafts I've done recently
6:19where I focused at other positions in the first two rounds.
6:22Sometimes that's Jalen Hurts, a quarterback, even though he's not my typical favorite quarterback target.
6:27He's somebody that I do think is a value as well.
6:31And even Saquon. I do think there are a lot of reasons to be really interested in this offense this year.
6:37I don't want to ignore the other two, though.
6:40I mean, Declan Doyle, obviously coming from Ben Johnson and Sean Payton, steps into a very talented offense, right?
6:46He gets Lamar Jackson. He gets Derrick Henry. So it's hard to say that he's going to boost those guys' fantasy value so much.
6:54I do wonder if the receivers maybe get a boost.
6:57Guys like Zay Flowers, if Rashad Bateman's on the field, Jacoby Lane's causing a lot of excitement.
7:02I wonder if those guys maybe are a little bit more valuable than they have been.
7:07I know Zay Flowers is a favorite of our colleague Andrew Erickson, who has talked a lot about him as the league winner.
7:15If he gets more red zone usage this year, I'm curious to see how that plays out.
7:20And then David Blau, I feel like, is the one that gets discussed maybe the least of these three.
7:26I feel like I hear a lot of people.
7:29And part of that is just the expectations are a little higher for Philly and Baltimore than they are for Washington.
7:36But I'm really curious to see what the offense looks like now that they have a couple of pass catchers in Terry McLaurin and Stephon Diggs.
7:44Broad and Chigakakwo. Obviously, there's some uncertainty in this backfield here.
7:47Debro, do you have any expectations for Blau, either positive or negative, in terms of what you think is going to happen
7:54for fantasy this year with this offense? I think Blau can help them field a much more competent offense.
8:00And we're going to see bells and whistles as opposed to Cliff Kingsbury doesn't even move his wide receivers around.
8:07There is no motion, lots of check down. There's a reason that the joke is real and the cliche has been real
8:14over the last few years for a Kingsbury offense being the horizontal raid.
8:18So my worry and the reason I didn't go with Blau here is because I worry about the composition of the commander's
8:25offensive line limiting a lot of what they want to do with outside zone running, with their tackles, with all this kind of stuff.
8:33And I know other teams like LeFleur and Shanahan and those offenses with the 49ers and the Packers and stuff like that haven't fielded top tier offensive lines.
8:41And it hasn't really impacted them a ton. Putting that type of respect on David Blau is a step, I think, a
8:48little bit too far when he's really an unproven commodity.
8:52I hope I'm wrong, but I have more questions about the composition of the offensive line for the commanders limiting what they want to do on offense.
9:00Fitz, is there one player, let's say on either Washington or Baltimore, that you're most interested to see what their new play caller does with them?
9:08Yeah, Zay Flowers, for sure. With Declan Doyle, just to see if there's any greater red zone usage because he has not been fully utilized there.
9:17But just to see him fully untapped, he had a 1,200-yard season last year with the Ravens throwing fewer passes than any
9:24other NFL team has attempted over the last three seasons.
9:27So Flowers is a really good player. I just can't wait to see how Doyle uses him.
9:32And like Debra, I worry that Blau is going to get thwarted by this offensive line because when the commanders were having
9:39a joint practice, I believe it was against your Ravensworm, the beat writer, the commander's beat writer for the athletic, I think the word she used was inoperable.
9:48Inoperable, yes. For the commander's offensive line. That's not a word you want to hear used in conjunction with your offensive line.
9:55Let's go to question number two here. This one, a lot of these are pretty open-ended.
10:00Who is one player that you feel like you personally have not really talked about on shows very much this draft season
10:07that you want to weigh in on? Debra, I'll start with you.
10:11I don't want to just stay fully Eagle-centric here, but Dontavian Wicks I really want to bring up because he's risen in drafts.
10:18He's still a great late-round flyer. But looking at, again, like to your point earlier, Worm, looking at various points of the
10:25draft and saying, OK, all these Eagles guys are the best value on the board.
10:30I think Dontavian Wicks could be one of those standout players this year.
10:34And Fitzy knows this as well as all of us, that Wicks, the problem has not been his ability from a route running and separation standpoint.
10:42He's been a darling in deeper metrics of the last two years amongst 109 qualifying wide receivers in back-to-back seasons.
10:49A player that's been third and 24th in separation, sixth and seventh in route win rate.
10:54And even on a per-route basis last year for the Packers, when he was on the field amongst that same 109 qualifying
11:01wide receivers, he was 41st in target per route run rate and 25th in first downs per route run.
11:07If there is a reason that Makai Lemon has, I'm not going to say like a failure to launch season, but this
11:14looks very similar to Luther Burden's rookie season where he's a part-time player.
11:18He looks really freaking good on the field, but maybe he's not a full-time player considering how much 12 and 21 that the Eagles want to run.
11:27Then it could be Dontavian Wicks because, to Fitz's point earlier, if Smith and Makai Lemon are rotating slot and Z, but
11:34if Wicks is the consistent X on every single play, he's not coming off the field.
11:39So he could be a guy that really pops this year, being a full-time player, getting out of the money ball wide
11:46receiver room for the Packers, and his talent fully has a chance to shine, and all the camp reports have been amazing.
11:53So Wicks is a player that I haven't talked about a ton this offseason, and after I got through the top 200
12:00and I wrote him up, I'm like, oh dude, I love him.
12:04I'm going to be drafting him in late rounds in so many drafts.
12:08I mean, he's totally free. He's wide receiver 70 and real-time ADP on fantasypros.com right now.
12:13An early 17th round pick. Like, a lot of leagues don't have 17 rounds in their draft.
12:18Can I weigh in on him real quickly? And I just got him in a draft last night.
12:24Yeah, so Wicks has always been really good at getting open.
12:27His problem has been at the catch point. He's had bad hands.
12:31Yeah, and the guy Matt LaFleur used to compare him to when Wicks was in Green Bay was Devontae Adams.
12:38Like he said, his game reminded him of Devontae Adams, and people might forget because Devontae's now been a great receiver in the league for a long time.
12:46But his first couple of years, he had major issues with drops.
12:50You would not have thought he was going to become a star based on his first couple of years because, like, Packers
12:57fans didn't like him early on because he dropped so many passes.
13:01And we saw what he's become. Quentin Johnston was another guy who struggled with drops early on, overcame him.
13:07So if, like, Wicks can put that problem behind him, yeah, there's something here.
13:12The three names going after Wicks in real-time ADP at the position right now, Zachariah Branch, a limited J-2 rookie, Travis Hunter,
13:19who's not a full-time wide receiver, and Tyree Kill, who's not on a team.
13:23Those are the three names going immediately after him.
13:26Yeah, so just keep drafting Dontaevion Wicks instead of taking a kicker or defense in your final round.
13:32Just do it. Yes. Uh, Fitz, who's one player that you have not weighed in on very much this year and would like the chance to?
13:40Yeah, Worm, I'm going to make a movie reference.
13:43It's an older movie, so you probably haven't seen it.
13:46Uh, Stripes, have you ever seen it? I've seen it once.
13:49I don't know that I would recognize a reference to it, but I have seen Stripes one time many years ago.
13:56Yeah, it's a classic comedy. Bill Murray joins the Army and Bill Murray's platoon.
14:00Um, they screw around and they are not ready for the drills they have to do in their graduation ceremony, so they
14:07stay up all night the night before practicing, practicing, practicing.
14:11Then they fall asleep, wake up and realize they're missing their graduation and sprint wildly to get there.
14:16Um, that's kind of like me with Jordan Mason during draft season.
14:20Like, I feel like I've been out on him or just sort of disinterested and thinking he was going to be a committee back the whole time.
14:29Um, now all of a sudden it's just, it kind of dawned on me that drumbeat got louder and louder that he
14:36was maybe going to be the lead guy, uh, in Minnesota.
14:39And just looking at this, sounds like they're going to run a lot more outside zone.
14:44And a lot of people think that's going to be a great fit for Mason and what he does.
14:50Um, I know he does not catch a lot of passes and that could be a problem.
14:56It makes me like him a little bit less in full point PPR leagues, but we saw Aaron Jones start to lose effectiveness.
15:03Maybe that was part of my reluctance on Jordan Mason, just because I'm, you know, as a Packers fan, Aaron Jones has been terrific over the years.
15:12I also liked him on Claiborne as a prospect, but like Claiborne was in a legitimate fight to win a roster spot and just barely made it.
15:20So I do think Mason is going to be the guy and I've like sort of vaulted him up my rankings to
15:27the point where I think he's, uh, really, he's been a draft steal.
15:31Because like, I know even in the week one rankings, like people have him in like RB four range.
15:37This is a guy who could get 20 carries against green Bay in week one.
15:42And he's being ranked as an RB four. He it's funny.
15:46His is ranking has actually snuck inside the top 36 in ECR.
15:49It's RB 35. Um, but his real time ADP is still as an RB four.
15:54He's just outside that top 36. Um, he he's around names in real time ADP, like Ja'Cory Kraske Merritt, Josh Jacobs, obviously a lot going on there.
16:03Uh, you know, RJ Harvey's a few spots behind him, Blake Corum, a few spots ahead.
16:08Um, so it's an interesting kind of range of running backs in the mid thirties there.
16:13Debra, where is Jordan Mason ranked for you? Uh, and is he somebody that you have been targeting?
16:19Dammit Fitzy. I love you so much because I almost brought up Jordan Mason in this segment.
16:24I swear I did. I've really come around on him because to your points, I think the Vikings offense is going to
16:31fundamentally change because it has to with Kyler Murray.
16:34He cannot run an, an offense that utilizes the middle of the field and it's timing based on all that kind of stuff.
16:41What they're going to have to do with Kyler Murray is I think in Minnesota, we're going to see kind of a yesteryear Russell Wilson type offense.
16:50It is run heavy. It is based off of boot action and play action and deep shots and things of that nature.
16:57I think their neutral rushing rate is going to go up.
17:00I think Jordan Mason's going to have a thousand rushing yards this season.
17:04Like I think they're going to lean on him and use Aaron Jones as the Swiss army knife piece.
17:10So to your point, I've been bumping Mason up in my ranks consistently right now.
17:15Uh, worm, like you pointed out, like in real time ADP, Jordan Mason is 94th overall.
17:20I bumped Jordan Mason up to 87th in my rankings and the overall standings.
17:25And I can make a case to bump him even higher.
17:28Like I think that he is going to get a crap ton of work.
17:33And for people that are looking at catching up at RB or going zero RB this year.
17:38Yeah, sure. Marshawn Lloyd. Okay, fine. Like go with him in the sixth round.
17:43I would be absolutely circling Jordan Mason and drafting him like about a round or at least a half round ahead of where he's at on every site.
17:51Just a great example of like a boring vet, right?
17:55Like nobody is going to be congratulating you in your draft when you select Jordan Mason.
18:00Nobody's going to say, oh, I can't believe you snaked me on him.
18:04But he's the type of guy that will probably bring a lot of value here assuming he stays healthy because there's just
18:11such a real opportunity in what will be a different offense to your point.
18:15All right. Let's get to another question here. Who will be this year's high octane offense bad defense circus team for fantasy goodness?
18:23Fitz, who are you going to highlight here? Oh, it's the Chicago Bears.
18:27That's who I thought it was going to be.
18:30I almost said Fitz. Cosign. All three of us.
18:32And I ended up being right. Yep. Cosign. And like I thought they would have been their defense would have been shaky
18:39even were they not plagued by injury problems. And they are now plagued by injury problems.
18:45Kobe Bryant, the safety they brought in and paid a lot of money to help shore up the secondary, which they needed badly.
18:52Injured and is going to miss like almost all the regular season, possibly all of it.
18:57Kyler Gordon, they're very good slot cornerback. Mysterious calf injury.
19:00They have like I've heard the Bears beat writer saying they have no idea when he's going to be back.
19:06None whatsoever. Like there's been no timetable on his return.
19:10Austin Booker, promising young edge rusher who they were expecting a big leap from this year, described as week to week with an injury he's dealing with.
19:18So there are some major problems on this defense.
19:21And then on the other side, you've got the high flying Ben Johnson offense with some exciting pieces.
19:27Caleb Williams, Roma Dunes, a Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, DeAndre Swift.
19:30Yeah, it seems like we are going to get consistent Vegas totals of around 50 in Chicago Bears games.
19:36This is one that fits. You've talked about a lot earlier this summer, which is why I was pretty confident you were going to pick it.
19:45D bro, this was your pick as well. Is that what you're saying?
19:49Hell yes. This is my pick. This is the standout pick.
19:52This is the Dallas Cowboys of last year. This is the Cincinnati Bengals of the last two years.
19:58And for everybody, and I'm sorry, Bears fans. Also, on top of everything that Fitzy just handed out, you traded Gervon Dexter away.
20:05And you think the defense is going to get any freaking better considering last year.
20:10Sure, you can point to the fact that they led the NFL in interceptions and percentage of drives ending in turnovers.
20:17Outside of that, Bears fans, just cover your ears for a second.
20:20They also allowed the 11th most passing yards, the 5th highest shards per attempt, the 6th most rushing yards, and the highest rushing success rate.
20:28But, sure, nothing to see here. Dennis Allen, Bears defense, be totally fine this year.
20:33It's all good. No worries. Yeah. So, let me ask you this, because we're all very much in agreement on the Bears here.
20:41The sort of prototype of this has been, in the last couple of years, the Bengals and the Cowboys.
20:47There's been a lot of talk about how the Cowboys are, you know, sort of mirror images of the Bengals.
20:53And they're both these, like, great offenses, bad defenses.
20:56Do you guys think that those teams will still fit into this category, even if the Bears are the more clear choice for this year?
21:04Or do you think the defensive improvements are enough, both in Dallas and Cincinnati, Dexter Lawrence, Caleb Downs, everything else, that you
21:11don't think that they will totally fit into this category, Debra?
21:14No, I think both these teams are out of this category this year.
21:18I think the Bengals and the Cowboys are going to field really good defenses.
21:23If people head over to my defensive rankings inside the top 200, I have both the Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys as top 12 fantasy defenses.
21:31And, spoiler, they're both my picks to make the Super Bowl this year.
21:35And, yes, I'm not picking the Rams because I'm kind of worried about their top-heavy nature.
21:40And it just feels like all the hype and hope for the Rams and stuff like that.
21:46I'm just so scared that something derails them, like a puka suspension injury, Adams injury, Matthew Stafford injury, anything like that.
21:52And then we're like, OK, never mind. Season is capsized.
21:55So I think the Bengals and the Cowboys are going to have really, really good seasons.
22:01And their defenses are going to be transformative considering everything they added, man.
22:05Like the Bengals reworked their entire freaking defensive line.
22:08They still have DJ Turner, who is a shutdown corner.
22:11Dallas reworked a ton of their defensive line. Their biggest question is, do they have the corners in-house to run the scheme
22:18that Parker wants to run and they don't get burned in that way?
22:22But they've got a lot of talent, man. If their pass rush comes alive, it's going to help their secondary out a ton.
22:29That's interesting. So I'm more with you on the Cowboys than I am the Bengals.
22:34I can't quite get there on Cincy's defense. Like, you know, Dexter Lawrence is getting older.
22:39It wasn't quite his, you know, same high-level self last year than previously.
22:43DJ Turner is very good. There's pieces that I like here.
22:47The Cowboys I am more on board with. I actually really like the Cowboys this year in terms of, like, their win total over.
22:54I think they're a really intriguing bet to make the Super Bowl.
22:58I really like that call by you, Debro. So I'm half with you between the two.
23:03Fitz, what do you think about those two? Do they fit into this category for you this year?
23:09Yeah, I do think both are going to be better, if not top 12.
23:13I think they're both capable of at least being average or only slightly below average defenses.
23:18So, like, there's going to be improvement. I'll tell you who I think is the sneaky dark horse team in this category.
23:25And it's also in the NFC North. It's the Detroit Lions.
23:29We know the offense is terrific and high-flying. The defense, man, it's going to be a while before Brian Branch comes back.
23:36Kirby Joseph, I mean, it's sounding like his knee issues are degenerative.
23:40Like, those are two Pro Bowl caliber safeties. And without those guys on the field, you know, the secondary is just not very good at all.
23:48I think Detroit's going to be in a lot of track meets.
23:52They play a lot of indoor games. I think we're going to get some high-scoring games with the Lions, too.
23:58Also losing Anzalone. Also, they still do not have a pass rush partner, Brad Hutchinson.
24:03It's funny. You're spot on with the Lions. But when you said NFC North, I was like, until Micah Parsons comes back,
24:10I think this could be a version of the Green Bay as well.
24:14I've been saying all summer, I think they're going to throw more this year, especially with the Josh Jacobs stuff.
24:20And that defense was not very good without Micah Parsons.
24:24So until he's on the field, I think they could fit into this category also.
24:28Could be. And I mean, moving from Ashley to Jonathan Gannon could be a massive downgrade, which we'll see.
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25:03All right, guys, let's look at sort of the other side of, you know, a very exciting fantasy offense.
25:09Who will be this year's most disappointing NFL team for fantasy?
25:13And I'm giving the caveat of non-injury reasons because obviously that could make anybody disappointing.
25:17Who will disappoint for reasons other than injury, D-Bro?
25:20I almost went with the Chargers on this, but we'll get to them later in this show.
25:26The team that I'm the most worried about because their two top offensive pieces are being drafted at first and 12th amongst
25:33their respective positions, and they are literally it for the offense.
25:36I'm really worried about the Raiders, man. Like, just if all of the parts and pieces and things that the Raiders did this offseason don't coalesce.
25:44This offensive line is improved, but it's not great.
25:47If Kirk Cousins looks like garbage, if the wide receivers, if none of them can get open, and literally it's like every
25:54defense every single week understands like, okay, all you got is Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentey.
25:59We know that. You know that. There's nothing else for us to worry about, so we're going to stack the box.
26:06We're going to double Brock Bowers. Good luck, Kirk Cousins.
26:09Good luck for Nana Mendoza. It could be tough sledding, man.
26:13And I'm not saying that like Gentey can't get a crap ton of volume and Brock Bowers can't be awesome.
26:19I'm just saying I'm concerned because all of the volume and their talent is expected to win out.
26:25They are the two pieces that are stand above the rest for the Raiders, and the rest of it is garbage.
26:31So if it does look like garbage and the offensive line cannot stand up, they can't impose their will on the ground,
26:38and defenses just say, look, we take away these two guys.
26:42What you got? Nothing? Okay. Then it could be tough.
26:45I think it's a good call. There were two teams that came to mind when I put together this question, and the
26:52Raiders weren't one of them, but I think they're a worthy inclusion here.
26:56I'm curious if Fitz, you're going to go with one of the two teams I was thinking of.
27:02I'll share them if you don't say who they are, but who did you go with?
27:07By the way, I'm a little less worried about the Raiders just because I trust Clint Kubiak.
27:12And there were not a lot of other options in the Seattle passing game last year besides Jackson Smith and Jigba, who
27:19had that crazy target share, and yet teams still couldn't figure out a way to stop Jackson Smith and Jigba.
27:26That at least eases my concerns about Bowers for sure.
27:29My team is, and I hate to fade Liam Cohen, but I do wonder if the Jaguars are maybe collectively getting too much fantasy steam this year.
27:37My concern is just that basically our things can be chopped up too many ways, both among the running backs and the pass catchers.
27:45We've been trying to read the tea leaves on the backfield all offseason, and a lot of people like Basial Tootin are
27:52excited about him, like super fast, some encouraging things in his metrics from his rookie season.
27:57If he cuts down on the fumbles, maybe it's wheels up, but then again, you've got Chris Rodriguez, who did have 1,300
28:04rushing yards for Liam Cohen at the University of Kentucky and did pretty well in terms of rushing success rate last year
28:11and has been an effective banger between the tackles.
28:14And, you know, with the receivers, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, who's been everyone's preseason, you know, draft season darling, and the always very professional.
28:22Oh, my God, I'm blanking on the name of number three.
28:25Jacobi Myers. Jacobi Myers. Thank you. Goodness. So, yeah, and then Travis Hunter, like as the wild card, a guy who possibly
28:32we know is not going to play 80% of the offensive snaps, but are there going to be weeks where he plays
28:39maybe 50% and, you know, kicks Parker Washington out of the slot or Jacobi Myers out of the slot and takes some of those snaps.
28:47And unless they're playing four wide out, maybe some of those guys are on the bench.
28:52So, yeah, I'm just a little worried that there just aren't enough targets to go around for Thomas Washington, Myers, and Travis Hunter.
29:00And the other concern there, not a good offensive line.
29:03Like there was someone who put out composite offensive line rankings based on the grades that they got from like the rankings
29:10of like 10 or 12 different sources. Jaguars were 23rd in those composite offensive line rankings.
29:15And, you know, some people had them as low as like 29, 30.
29:19So those are my two issues with the Jaguars.
29:22And I've drafted a fair amount of Parker Washington.
29:25I've drafted some Jacobi Myers, drafted some Basial Tootin, but I'm a little nervous.
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31:01That's an interesting one. It wasn't one of the two I was thinking of, but it's a good point where we're thinking specifically from a fantasy perspective.
31:10If there are just too many mouths to feed.
31:13Debra, I'm curious. Do you think, because Trevor Lawrence's second half last year was a legitimate step forward to the point that
31:20he can sort of raise the tide here and keep everybody afloat for fantasy value, even if there are a lot of mouths to feed?
31:28Or do you worry about any sort of regression from what we saw to finish last year?
31:33Because he ran so hot at the end of this season.
31:37So I'm worried on a few different levels. Very similar in some areas to Fitz.
31:41Very different. But the Jaguars, yeah. I've cooled on Bayshel Tootin.
31:45I am worried that Chris Rodriguez. And I mean, they're even talking about Amir Abdullah playing on passing downs and stuff like that.
31:52I'm worried that that backfield could just be a total stay-away freaking mess.
31:56But to Fitz's point, the thing that makes me so concerned about Trevor Lawrence, and specifically Brian Thomas Jr.
32:02and Jacoby Myers, I'm still all in on Parker Washington.
32:06The schedule is god-awful. Like, if we want to talk about the schedule, I think Brian Thomas Jr.
32:11could be one of the most dropped players to begin the season and be one of the poster boys, like when we're at midseason as a buy low.
32:20And I'll just walk this schedule real fast, guys.
32:23It is shadow realm hell for Brian Thomas Jr.
32:26And it's honestly just awful for him and Jacoby Myers playing on the perimeter more.
32:31Week 1, Cleveland Browns. Denzel Ward says hi. Week 2, Denver.
32:34Patrick Sertain will be in Brian Thomas Jr.'s back pocket.
32:37Week 3, Christian Gonzalez. Week 4, DJ Turner. Week 5, Quinion Mitchell and Tariq Wollin.
32:42Week 6, Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter. By week and week 7.
32:46Week 8, Sauce Gardner and Chavarius Ward. Week 9, the Baltimore Ravens.
32:49Oh, look at that. We are halfway through the fantasy season before they get the Tennessee Titans.
32:55Dear Lord, that's rough, guys. It's horrible. Let me just throw out the two teams that I referenced that I was thinking about with this question.
33:03One is Seattle, actually. And you mentioned it fits a lot of faith in Clint Kubiak.
33:08He's not there anymore. We have seen Mike McDonald make a not-so-great offensive play caller hire before in year one with Brian Grubb.
33:15And maybe Fleury will be closer to Clint Kubiak.
33:18Or maybe he'll be closer to what Grubb was.
33:21And we need to see. So, like, I actually have not been taking a lot of JSN where he's been going because
33:28I've just been a little nervous about that. Number two, and this was the main one I was thinking of, is the Falcons.
33:36For as much as everybody is already in consensus that this quarterback situation is really scary, Bijan Robison is still the consensus number two pick.
33:43Drake London is a consensus top 10 receiver. He's going as wide receiver 9 in real-time ADP, a second-round pick.
33:50Kyle Pitts is a lot of, one of, you know, some people's favorite mid-round tight end in that tight end 6-7-8 range.
33:57If the quarterback is really bad, and I know that Kevin Stefanski has a pretty good reputation, the Browns, when they won
34:04games, you know, the few times they did under his tenure, it was because of the defense.
34:09He was not really lifting really poor quarterback play above, you know, where it could have been.
34:15So, yeah, I'm very nervous about the Falcons. And I have drafted some Bijan.
34:19I have drafted some Drake London. I have drafted some Kyle Pitts.
34:23And it makes me really nervous, whatever this quarterback room is going to look like.
34:28That, to me, seems like a really straightforward path to a disappointing season.
34:32I don't disagree with you, Worm. And I'll throw this out here.
34:36And I don't, this is not me trying to be hot takey and stuff like that.
34:41But this is how bad I think their quarterback room is.
34:44And I kind of have some hope for this player.
34:47I think Jack Strand is going to make some starts this year.
34:51I don't have any faith in Penix and Tua.
34:54None. That's, I don't even know that that's hot takey, just given what we've seen.
34:59Like, what was the quote? Tua has made it impossible for him to win this quarterback competition.
35:04Like, it's rough. All right, let's get to the next question.
35:08Fitz, pick one tight end outside of Tier 1 who will be a consensus Tier 1 tight end this time next year.
35:15Harold Fannin. He's just so good, man. Like, he led FBS in receptions and receiving yards in his final college season at Bowling Green in 2024.
35:23Then he goes to the Browns, a team with one of the worst offenses, one of the worst passing games in the
35:30league, and had 72 catches, 731 yards, six touchdowns, led the Browns in all three of those stat categories.
35:36And now consider a year from now, it's probably not going to be Deshaun Watson as the opening day starter for the Browns.
35:43Can you imagine if it was? Yeah, it is not going to be Deshaun Watson.
35:48It's going to be more like Dante Moore or Arch Manning.
35:52Like, there's going to be a quarterback upgrade for the Browns.
35:55So I think we're going to be a lot more excited about Fannin, who is underrated right now.
36:01People should realize just how good this dude is and what he overcame last year to put up some pretty good numbers.
36:08He's going to have to overcome the quarterback play again this year to get there.
36:12Because he's not going to jump into Tier 1.
36:15Just like if he has a down season based on bad quarterback play this year, just getting a new quarterback, I think
36:22he'll still be more like that tight end. He's going to have to perform, which I'm not saying he can't, but he'll
36:29have to overcome it again this year. Debra, what do you think?
36:33All right. So I'm going to give the caveat.
36:36I just want this player to play more. I just want him to run more freaking routes.
36:41And if he does that, we're going to see the talent that he's had the entire time in the NFL.
36:48And this is Dalton Kincaid. And for everybody that doesn't understand the talent of Dalton Kincaid to be a Tier 1 tight
36:55end amongst 53 qualifying tight ends last year. Dalton Kincaid, first in separation, first in yards per route run, first in target
37:02per route run, first in route win rate, first in first downs per route run, first in fantasy points per route run.
37:09There is not a category that exists that I care about for tight ends that Dalton Kincaid on a per route basis
37:16did not lead all tight ends last year. If his route share goes to the 65-70% range, he could be a top five tight end this year.
37:24And it's not crazy to say. He just has to be on the field running routes.
37:29And if we get that this year, he's going to be a Tier 1 guy next year.
37:35Fits where you're at on Kincaid. I've come around to him.
37:38My concern with him is he's got this, I think it's a PCL injury that he has not had surgery for and will not have surgery for.
37:47And like, I was concerned that Brandon Bean said sort of early in the offseason, the Bills GM mentioned that like they might have to manage his snaps.
37:56I'm hoping that's not the case because the other thing is like the efficiency numbers were so insanely good last year.
38:02What was it? 2.70 yards per route run for Kincaid?
38:06For a tight end, that's nuts. That's like high-end wide receiver 1 yards per route run numbers.
38:11I feel like there's nowhere to go but down.
38:14So, you know, even with that crazy efficiency, Kincaid wasn't like a tight end 1 last year.
38:19Maybe he just barely snuck in as a low-end tight end 1 in fantasy scoring.
38:24So, we know the efficiency is probably coming down because there's no way it can go even higher than that.
38:30He's going to have to play a lot more snaps.
38:34And will he play a lot more snaps if they're talking about managing this, his workload with the PCL injury?
38:40And we know they like playing Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes.
38:43So, that's kind of an issue. It's funny. There are – for as much as I don't feel great about tight end
38:50this year, I do think there are a lot of names that you can at least squint and make a case for for this to happen.
38:59So, the tier 1 is Bowers, McBride, Loveland, and Warren based on our expert consensus rankings.
39:04So, you're looking at anybody besides them. I think Tucker Craft could have been here this year if he didn't get hurt last year.
39:11If he comes back healthy, I think he could be there.
39:15Harold Fannin, Fitz made the case for. Pitts, if the quarterback situation is okay, he was tight end 2 last year.
39:22Sam Laporta has been a tight end 1 before.
39:24Kincade obviously making the case. Isaiah Likely, if he gets this new opportunity and hits his high end of expectations, I think he'd be there.
39:32I think looking further down, a guy like Terrence Ferguson that Fitz and I have talked a bunch about as an intriguing dark horse here.
39:40And there's other names too. There's a lot of tight ends that you could see the case happening.
39:46Picking which one does have that breakout is where it gets tricky and fun.
39:50But I think there's a number of names that could make the tier 1 of the position look different next year.
39:57And that's bearing in mind the fact that the guys who are in there are young and theoretically will still have a
40:04good chance of being there themselves next year. So it's a really fun kind of position to look at, I think.
40:11For all the names you gave there, Worm, I'll also give an honorable mention to Isaiah Likely.
40:16If he could prove that he's the number two pass catcher for the Giants this year.
40:21Definitely. He could be there next year too. All right.
40:24Let's go to the next question. Who is the single best value at any position in drafts this season, Debro?
40:31I've said it before and I'll say it again.
40:34And I know I threw cold water on Brian Thomas Jr.
40:37and everybody. The upside swing to take in every single one is Parker Washington.
40:42Like, I just, I'm not going to get off of him.
40:45Like, if he signs an extension before week one, I think everybody is going to auto-correct and bump him even further up ranks.
40:52As saying he is the clear wide receiver one, Travis Hunter is playing as a full-time corner now in camp.
40:59I'm not worried about him stealing routes. If, and the thing that I want to highlight here is we see guys break out.
41:06And then a lot of different years, people are like, oh, that's not going to reproduce.
41:11Like, after Amon Ross St. Brown's rookie season, after Rasheed Rice's rookie season, they come back and they produce and they're awesome.
41:18And it's like, oh, that small snippet we saw is absolutely real.
41:22I think that could be the case for Parker Washington.
41:25And again, going to the schedule, I'm worried about Brian Thomas Jr.
41:29I'm worried about Jacoby Myers winning on the outside versus that laundry list of corners.
41:34Parker Washington in the slot and with the wide receiver one role that he coveted last year down the back half of
41:41the season in week 16 through 19 was absolutely amazing.
41:44So Parker Washington, Mike, as a wide receiver three that I can draft.
41:48Dude, if he produces as what he did last year, even a muted version of that.
41:53It's like, I'm not expecting 22.3 PPR points per game like he was producing in those four games.
41:59He's at 17. Dude, he's still a wide receiver one.
42:02Like, that's, that's insane. Yeah. I think he's the best value.
42:06Wide receiver 29 in real time ADP mid sixth round pick right now is Parker Washington.
42:11I got him in a salary cap draft last night for $4, $200 budget for $4.
42:16Jeez, man. Yeah. That's robbery. That's insanity. Wow. Yeah.
42:19I mean, he's somebody you've been talking about all, all season or all summer here, Debro.
42:24So very unsurprising to hear you highlight Washington. Fitz, who to you is the best value on the board?
42:30To me, I, and I almost would have agreed with Debro, at least for the first three quarters of fantasy draft season.
42:37And then it seems like just lately, the Parker Washington has been getting some steam and it's kind of baked the value out of him.
42:45I still think he's a solid value at his current wide receiver, 29 ADP.
42:49I'm going to go up one spot in the wide receiver rankings to the guy who's been consistently a value all draft season, Christian Wilson.
42:57Yes. And I know, I know Debro's got my back on this one.
43:01Yes. Yeah, it's just people are terrified of the injury history.
43:05And, you know, he came back early from a torn ACL last season, made it through the rest of the year.
43:11Ten games did have kind of a scare. I think he had to be hospitalized after a play where Patrick Sertan Jr.
43:18kind of crash landed on him in Denver and went to the hospital.
43:22They feared like he had some sort of rib issue, but like turned out to be OK.
43:28Played the next week. And I just think he's so poised for a good season with the reduced traffic in the Green Bay receiving core.
43:36No Romeo Dobbs, no Dontavian Wicks. The last two years, the Packers have been 31st and 22nd pass rate over expected.
43:42I think that's going to change for a variety of reasons.
43:46One, the Josh Jacobs absence. Number two, the Micah Parsons absence, which, you know, reduces the caliber of the defense and maybe thrust Green Bay into more shootouts.
43:55I just think things are pointed up. And we saw Christian Watson play excellent.
43:59He produced after coming back last year at a 1,000 yard, 10 touchdown pace and his efficiency numbers like yards per catch,
44:06yards per route, run yards per target. All fantastic.
44:09He's just a really good player. He's big. He's fast.
44:12And he gets open and he's good at the catch point.
44:16Like, I think he could be a star. Just needs health to cooperate.
44:20But everyone is sort of drafting him with the anticipation he's going to get hurt at some point.
44:26But Fitzy, I specifically didn't grab him for this because I was hoping with every fiber of my soul that you grabbed him.
44:33But to your point, I looked this up the other day.
44:36In the last two years with Josh Jacobs, he has been a cancer for that offense considering just nerfing Jordan Love because
44:43they don't want to freaking throw the ball. Josh Jacobs in the Green Bay Packers offense the last two years, they have
44:50been seventh in both years in red zone rushing rate.
44:54They've been first and third in neutral rushing rate.
44:56I just want to kindly remind everybody the last year we saw Jordan Love without Josh Jacobs in this offense.
45:03Jordan Love was, oh, QB five in fantasy points per game.
45:06This offense in that season in 2023, 12th in red zone passing rate.
45:10No biggie. You know, just draft the Green Bay wide receiver one, clear wide receiver one as a wide receiver three.
45:17It's all good. More for us. My favorite teams that I've drafted by a mile are the teams where I've gone running back and sometimes tight end early.
45:26And then getting two of Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Roma Dunes, he has wide receiver 27 right ahead of these guys.
45:33Like getting some combo of those with an early running back, my favorite builds by a mile.
45:38So I'm obviously super on board here. D-Bro, where did you have Watson in your draft rankings at wide receiver?
45:44Bro, I've had him as a top 20 wide receiver the entire draft season.
45:49He's wide receiver 19. I've got him right. It's sandwiched in between Garrett Wilson and DJ Moore.
45:54And dude, I can make a case for him as high as like wide receiver 14.
45:59If Malik neighbors starts out slow. If Kyler doesn't hit in Minnesota, if the offensive line capsizes Terry McLaurin and Washington, I
46:06can make it a case for Watson to go even higher in the ranks.
46:11Yeah, I've got him wide receiver 22. And I feel like that's me trying to be conservative.
46:16Same. I feel like I'm like I'm so far ahead of ADP and ECR and stuff like that, where I'm just like,
46:23I don't have to bump him up even higher, even though like I want to.
46:28It's like people are still going to draft a crap ton of him just following our ranks.
46:33Fitzy, we're like, I want to bump him up.
46:36But I'm like, everybody's going to draft a crap ton of him if they're following our ranks.
46:42So I was like, I didn't feel like I had to, you know?
46:46Yeah. Quick PSA before your next draft. Check out the Fantasy Pros Draft Assistant.
46:50It gives you expert recommendations for every pick, real-time alerts, and even predicts which players could make it back to you.
46:57And with Fantasy Pros Premium, you'll get help all season long with lineups, waivers, trades, and more.
47:02Start your free trial today at fantasypros.com slash free.
47:05That's fantasypros.com slash free. We can go quickly on this one.
47:09It was a weak NFL draft class, but there are always rookies who pop every season.
47:14Which rookie are you most interested in drafting at cost this season, Fitz?
47:18Tie between Makai Lemon and Jonah Coleman. I just think there's a pretty decent chance we look back on this rookie class
47:25and say that Makai Lemon and not Carnell Tate or Jordan Tyson or Casey Concepcion was the best rookie in the class.
47:32I just, man, like Lemon was in college better than three yards per target against both man and zone.
47:38Gets open easily with his quickness and his crisp route running.
47:41Vacuum is in every throw that comes his way.
47:44Has amazing hands. Causes problems after the catch. Like he's really hard to tackle.
47:49I just, and all of a sudden he joins an Eagles offense that no longer has A.J.
47:54Brown. Like I wouldn't be surprised if the gap between Devontae Smith and Makai Lemon this year was smaller than some people think.
48:01And then Jonah Coleman just seems like the perfect Sean Payton back.
48:05And, you know, we kind of saw, weird to say it, of a guy who scored 12 touchdowns last year.
48:12But R.J. Harvey just wasn't good after J.K. Dobbins got hurt.
48:15The Denver running game, by the time the playoffs came, the Denver running game was just in the tank.
48:21I just wonder, Fitz, and we've talked about R.J.
48:24Harvey on other shows, so I don't need to like push back too much here.
48:29But I do wonder if like, if Jonah Coleman usurps anybody, if it's Dobbins, it just feels like maybe that's the role
48:36of in this backfield that he is more likely to take over rather than Harvey's role.
48:41I don't disagree with you about maybe Harvey's ceiling not being that good.
48:45And he just wasn't that good of a runner last year.
48:48But I wonder if that role is a little more solidified, even with the Coleman addition.
48:53It's also just a Sean Payton offense. It's hard to tell.
48:57Like, right. It's kind of guesswork anyway. It's just kind of possible that Coleman is just better than Dobbins and Harvey at
49:04everything and winds up as sort of the lead guy.
49:07They're all going to be involved because we know Sean Payton loves to use two or three running backs.
49:13He does it every year. But I think Coleman is going to be one of those running backs.
49:19I have drafted basically no J.K. Dobbins. I have drafted a lot of Harvey when he falls and Coleman because he almost always falls.
49:27Those are the two I've definitely targeted in the backfield.
49:30So, Debro, for you, obviously you do a lot of work with the draft stuff.
49:34Which rookie are you most interested in at cost this season?
49:38His cost has continued to rise. It's still not high enough.
49:41I'm just drafting Casey Concepcion everywhere. Like, I understand that the Cleveland Browns quarterback situation, I get all of that.
49:48I'm able to get him at wide receiver 46 in real-time ADP right now as the clear wide receiver one for the Cleveland Browns.
49:55He's going to get the design stuff. He's going to get the underneath targets.
50:00He's also going to get some rushing attempts. We saw this in the preseason, man.
50:05And for everybody reversing all their stuff about draft takes about him, he has been catching everything in camp after people just
50:12tried to bury him in the pre-draft process. I love the talent.
50:15He was my wide receiver two pre-draft and post-draft.
50:18I'm a big believer in the talent. And if the Browns suck, he's going to get a crap ton of volume.
50:25So I love Casey Concepcion at cost. I almost went to John Stribbling, but his cost has risen up a ton of
50:32just investing in what could be a top five offense.
50:35But if everybody does stay healthy, Stribbling's like what?
50:38The third or fourth, maybe fifth option in the passing attack.
50:42When you juxtapose that versus taking Casey Concepcion around after Stribbling as a wide receiver four, but he could get legit 120 targets in his rookie season.
50:50That feels kind of foolish for me to go Stribbling.
50:53So since neither of you guys picked him, can I just get a very quick temperature check from you both on Carnell Tate?
51:01Because historically, in a vacuum, taking a receiver who went with a top five pick and is being drafted as wide receiver
51:0832 in real-time ADP, the 75th overall player, that feels like a very smart bet to make just in a vacuum.
51:14But it's obviously not been a great preseason, both for him and for the offense as a whole.
51:20So Fitz, just a quick temperature check on Tate for you right now at cost.
51:25I'm a little concerned. I haven't moved him down too far in my rankings, and he's sort of like one of those
51:32last guys I want to draft at wide receiver before.
51:35It's kind of a jumble, and I'm not feeling as urgent a need to get him.
51:40So I've gotten him on a few teams. I do worry, though, that if the downfield passing game is kind of a
51:47mess, if Cam Ward hasn't made strides, then maybe the guy to have in Tennessee is Wondell Robinson, who can at least
51:54get those easy button completions in the shorter areas of the field.
51:58Because Tate is a downfield ball winner, man. But someone has to at least be able to get it in the area code of where Carnell Tate is.
52:07Debra? Yeah, I've dropped Tate a little bit in my ranks, and this has nothing to do with Carnell Tate.
52:13Like, I've watched all the All-22 from his preseason.
52:16I'm not worried about his ability to run routes, separate any of that.
52:20That is not my concern about Carnell Tate. I am at consensus because real-time ADP is wide receiver 32.
52:26He's wide receiver 32 in my ranks. So I at least wanted to stay at consensus because the upside can still be there.
52:33My big concern for Carnell Tate is everything around Cam Ward.
52:37He looked lost in the preseason. And the big thing about Cam Ward is he came out and talked about this on the Netflix documentary stuff.
52:45It is like, dude, the preseason defenses are vanilla as hell, and he's having struggles like going through reads.
52:51They did safety rotations, and you could tell based off of pre- and post-snap reads when that happened, even in the preseason, Cam Ward's head was spinning, dude.
53:00And so, like, I worry if he doesn't take a leap or, hell, if he's even a functional quarterback this year, if
53:07all of that doesn't happen, Tate is going to suffer.
53:10That entire offense is going to suffer. So this is not an indictment on Carnell Tate's talent or his ability at all.
53:17My worry, because there's not a QB2 that's on the Tennessee roster that's coming to save the day with catchable targets.
53:24So if Cam Ward sucks, that entire offense could get capsized.
53:27All right, next question here. Consensus is that this is a great year to wait and draft a quarterback late.
53:34Who are your guys' favorite quarterback targets this season?
53:37Fitz, starting with you. It's very boring. I'm going to put you to sleep with this.
53:42It's Jared Goff, who has dropped at least 4,400 passing yards and 29 touchdown passes each of the last four years.
53:48He's averaged 4,500, 52 passing yards, 32.5 touchdowns over those four seasons.
53:52That basically works out to 267.7 passing yards and 1.9 TD passes a game.
53:57And the Lions play a ton of indoor games this year, have one of the easiest schedules in the league, don't face a lot of top defenses.
54:05And their defense just might stink. I mean, the last four years, Goff has been QB10, QB7, QB6, QB8 in fantasy points
54:12per game or maybe just fantasy scoring. Yeah, so like really nice four-year run.
54:17The Lions offense looks as good as ever and their defense looks worse.
54:21So I love Goff. And, you know, you bypass a quarterback to load up on other positions in the early rounds and then just take a steady quarterback.
54:30An 11th round pick in real-time ADP, by the way.
54:33Yeah, so I love Goff and he is my most drafted quarterback.
54:37Like stylistically, guys, what's the difference between how they score their fantasy points and the offensive firepower of Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Jared Goff?
54:45Right. What's the difference? And I like running quarterbacks.
54:47But if the passing stats are like if the floor is this high for a quarterback with his pure passing numbers, like come in.
54:55Well, it's a great call to like this is a good example of check your league settings because when you look at
55:02ADP, whether it's fantasy versus real-time ADP or whatever on the site, that's not usually designating for the differences in how passing touchdowns are scored.
55:10But if it's a six-point per touchdown league versus a four-point, like in a four-point right, running quarterbacks may be more valuable.
55:17If it's a six-point, that ADP is going to look even better for a guy like Jared Goff.
55:23So definitely keep an eye on the settings here.
55:26QB 16 in real-time ADP right now. Debra, who's pick for you?
55:29I mean, the low-hanging fruit for me is apparently in the year 2026 the Konami co-died, but none of us got the email or the memo.
55:38Malik Willis at QB 21 is absolute insanity to me.
55:41Like, I do not understand it. He's going to run.
55:44That's all you freaking need to know. He's going to run.
55:48So he's going to be a top 15 quarterback at his floor.
55:51I think he's going to produce as a QB 1 in fantasy because he's going to freaking run.
55:57This is Justin Fields of previous years. And if any of these rookie wide receivers step forward and they're actually freaking good
56:04in this Dolphins offensive line and the receiver surprise, Malik Willis is going to be a wonderful pick in fantasy this year.
56:11But just to kind of go around the horn and shout out a few other names for people to just kind of
56:18earmark late, we've talked about Jordan Love, a crap ton.
56:21He's QB 18 in real-time ADP. Again, harkening back to yesteryear, QB 5, the last time we didn't see Josh Jacobs, like pulling down this entire passing attack.
56:30And then Baker Mayfield, if he has a bounce back year, Tyler Shuck, a QB 20 produced as a QB 1 during the back half of last season.
56:39Chris Alave is fully healthy. If Jordan Tyson comes back and he gives them a bump, like I believe in Kellen Moore
56:46and I believe in what they can do. Jordan Love would have been a shout from me too.
56:52So I love that you say him. It's funny because like my favorite quarterbacks that I am like really excited about taking
56:59like another step forward this year are guys like Caleb, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and that QB like 7 to 10 range.
57:06Like those are the guys that I get most enthusiastic about getting.
57:10But I'm not drafting a lot of them because I'm like I can wait 5, 6, 7 more rounds and get a guy.
57:17I can get Goff and Love. I can get Love and Willis in rounds 12 and 14.
57:22Like it is insane in a 1QB league how much you can wait at this position.
57:27And so like not only am I not taking the Allens, Lamars, Mays of the world because I'm like a quarterback so deep.
57:35I'm not even taking the guys ranked 9th and 10th despite loving them.
57:39Yeah. Because there's guys you could still wait even further on.
57:42And so yeah, it is a remarkable position this season.
57:45To your point and Fitzy's point, I mean in our FP staff league that I drafted I think like a week or
57:52two ago, I legit just waited and that's a 14 or 16 teamer.
57:57I just waited on quarterback and I drafted Malik Willis and Jared Goff for pennies.
58:01And I'm like okay, I'm content. It's a 16 team league and I accidentally, I misclicked in the draft room.
58:08And I took Jordan Love in like round nine.
58:11And I was planning to continue to wait at quarterback and I was trying to pick somebody else.
58:16But even then I was like, you know what?
58:19Like in a 16 team league that late, like I think Love's good.
58:23I don't hate this. I'll just – I didn't even bother like getting it changed or anything.
58:29I'll accept this because he's that – it's just ridiculous how late you can get quarterbacks.
58:34All right. Two more questions here, guys. Guys, this one, speaking of quarterbacks and I really like Herbert.
58:39I have been talking up the Chargers offense with Mike McDaniel as much as anyone this summer.
58:45Are they going to live up to the hype this year?
58:48Debro, you already referenced this a little bit earlier.
58:51It sounds like maybe you're not thinking they will.
58:54I've got my worries and my questions, guys. And this is not me full fading their offense and it's not full –
59:01like but I've got worries about this. Because for everybody, I feel like everybody talks about the offensive line for the Chargers
59:08and they glaze over the fact that Joe Alt is still not 100% with the stuff coming out of training camp.
59:15Rashawn Slater is still splitting snaps and he's not 100%.
59:18They just lost Tyler Biotish for the whole freaking year and everybody's still like wheels up.
59:23Don't worry about Amari Ann Hampton. Draft Lab McConkie as a wide receiver too.
59:27It's all good. No big deal. As well as – and I know that the Mike McDaniel stans – I pulled this off of Fantasy Points data suite.
59:36I know the Mike McDaniel stans will automatically say this is a Tua split.
59:41I just want to also throw this out here.
59:44We have seen the Kansas City Chiefs struggle as a passing attack since losing Tyreek Hill.
59:49I don't know if we are giving Tyreek Hill enough credit to be an absolute demon and somebody that revolutionized the entire damn NFL.
59:56The splits during Mike McDaniel's tenure in Miami. So 2022 to 2025.
60:00With Tyreek Hill on the field, EPA per play, seventh best.
60:04EPA per dropback, sixth best. Offensive success rate, tenth.
60:07Without Tyreek Hill on the field – and this is a four-year stretch, by the way.
60:12EPA per play, 27th. EPA per dropback, 27th. Offensive success rate, 23rd.
60:15People can wish that away and say that's a Tua problem.
60:19What if it's not? What if this is really telling about Mike McDaniel was propped up, much like Andy Reid during that whole time for Tyreek Hill?
60:27Well, it's concerning. It really is. I don't know the degree to which I am like, oh, that – what a compelling case.
60:35I agree with that. But I think it's a wonderful what if.
60:39It is very much a question worth asking, I think, D-Bro.
60:42And Fitz, I'm curious your opinion on this, specifically the Tyreek – I mean everything, but the Tyreek Hill of it all too.
60:49Yeah, I've heard those numbers before and that is a pretty stark difference and it kind of is a reminder of just
60:56how good Tyreek Hill was when he was at the height of his powers.
61:01And maybe it does kind of take some of the lost air away from Mike McDaniel's reputation.
61:06I still think he's a very good offensive designer and play caller and I'm optimistic.
61:11But, yeah, I too am worried about the Tyler Biotic injury because that was such a big – the inside of the
61:18Chargers offensive line was so bad last year. It just completely wrecked the offense.
61:22And I want to see Justin Herbert with time to throw.
61:26Losing Biotic a major blow and if the tackles can't stay healthy, I'm going to be very afraid of what this offense
61:33might look like and how much it might let us down.
61:36The thing that's hard for me to just forget about when – if I'm trying to make the case against the Chargers
61:43is just like he got Tua to lead the league in passing yards.
61:48What is he going to do with Justin Herbert?
61:50And I understand all the reasons against it, the Tyreek Hill of it all.
61:55I was like, but what if that's a Tyreek Hill style?
61:58I know, and I get it. But I'm just like I can't stop thinking about like one of the worst physical talent
62:05in terms of quarterback position in Tua was able to have success under this guy.
62:10What is one of the freakiest arms and processors going to do with McDaniel?
62:15But I think you ask good questions, and I think it's worth maybe dialing it down a little bit.
62:21I think especially with a guy like O'Marion Hampton because some of these other guys you can get later.
62:27Ladd McConkie is like a fourth-round pick. Quentin Johnson is going late.
62:30Herbert, you can wait on a quarterback. Hampton is the one where it's like you've got to spend a mid-second-round pick to get him.
62:38That's where it makes me a little bit more nervous.
62:41And I like Hampton a lot, but that's where I start to get nervous.
62:46Like it's just all of this in this conversation, it's throwing a little bit of cold water and having questions about a
62:53situation where everybody the entire – like for most people in the fantasy space for the entirety of the offseason has been
63:00just like wheels up for the Chargers. McDaniel, let's go.
63:03Vibes. All of it. And I'm like I don't know, man.
63:06I don't know. One last question here, and don't worry.
63:10It's a quick one. Give me one player each who will define the 2026 fantasy season.
63:15Debra, I'll start with you. I'm just going to go with the low-hanging fruit here at Pukenakua.
63:20I think he could define the season if he hits the ceiling of what I'm projecting right now.
63:26In the healthy games that he had last year, so take out week seven, obviously he missed that, but week six he hurt his ankle.
63:34He averaged 27.4 PPR points per game. If we simply just do the napkin math of you flip the touchdowns, he got the 14, Adams got the 10.
63:43Pukenakua would have averaged 26 PPR points per game.
63:45And just for everybody at home, that would make him the first wide receiver to average 26 or more PPR points per game.
63:53And I went all the way back to 2013.
63:56Only two wide receivers in that stretch have had over 25 PPR points per game.
64:00That's the type of ceiling that Puka has to be a season-defining player, much like Cooper Cup was, much like CMC has done in previous years.
64:09So in some drafts, people are worried about the commissioner's exempt list and all this kind of stuff.
64:14You'll see Chase, you'll see other guys go ahead of him.
64:18I'm still drafting Puka Nakua where he goes. If I have the 103, I am drafting Puka.
64:23Be damned the risk because if he hits the upside, he could be a season-defining player.
64:28Like legit, the highest point per game producer in fantasy this year.
64:32Debra, do you remember who you picked last year for this?
64:36I actually don't – I remember who Fitz picked for this question last year because it's also how we wrapped last year's episode.
64:43I'm going to try and look it up while Fitz gives his answer because I do remember – Who did I pick last year?
64:51I'm glad you remember because I do not. Well, I remember last year you were very high on Brock Bowers and was your choice last year.
64:59And it's funny because I could – the way you've talked about him, I could see you picking him again this year.
65:06I don't know who you did pick. I did.
65:09Oh, you did? I did. Fitz, he's like, I ain't wrong.
65:12I'm just trying to – I mean, last year it was injury, right?
65:16It's not that you were wrong about the player or anything.
65:20But yeah, he was your pick. I'll try and find yours, Debra, too.
65:24But go ahead on Brock Bowers, Fitz. It was injury and the offense was just so bad.
65:29I mean, like I kind of underestimated how much – you know, like it was just a bad regime, bad coaching, bad quarterbacking.
65:37The offensive line fell apart. Now, much improved offensive line, or at least it should be with better health.
65:43Colton Miller, healthier. They brought in Tyler Linderbaum. They've got what should be capable quarterbacking.
65:47Kirk Cousins might not be a good quarterback, but man, he has floated some tight ends over the years going way back to Jordan Reed in Washington.
65:56TJ Hawkinson with some fine years in Minnesota. We saw him fuel that Kyle Pitts 166-yard three touchdown game last year that
66:03helped out so many fantasy teams in the playoffs.
66:06And then eventually it's going to be Fernando Mendoza.
66:09So I just think Bowers is so freaking athlete and so talented, and now he's got a functional system and good coaching.
66:16I feel like he's capable of putting up high-end wide receiver one numbers, and that a year from now we might be
66:23looking back on him and saying, why wasn't he a top 10 pick in fantasy?
66:27D-Ro, your player who was going to define 2025 was actually a rookie.
66:32It was Ted Aroa McMillan. Oh, okay. That was your pick.
66:35All right. I was so worried about what name you were going to bring up.
66:40I was like, oh, no. This is going to be like my Tony Power call.
66:45It's going to bury me. Oh, no. Not quite that low.
66:48I mean, obviously, Ted Aroa, good year. Not a season-defining year, but good rookie season.
66:53Top 24 wide receiver. I hope everybody is excited for this show next year when Fitz picks Brock Bowers for the third straight season.
67:0127. We might as well lock it in now.
67:03But, yeah. Puka and Bowers, two pretty talented players here to think that they're going to really define things this year.
67:10We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Hope everybody enjoyed our biggest key questions ahead of the 2026 season.
67:16For Fitz and D-Bro, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time.
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