6 Fantasy Football Players Projections LOVE | Big Seasons Coming for These Picks (Ep. 2054)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
41 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 12, 2026
Published
Fri, June 12, 2026
28
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
Jameson WilliamsBreece HallRashee RiceColston LovelandQuinshon JudkinsChris GodwinJared GoffMalik NabersPatrick MahomesSam LaPorta
Player analysis
Player insights
Breece Hall
PositiveProjection0:12
Jake Seeley projects Breece Hall for 260 carries, 47.5 receptions, approximately 1,600 total yards, and 9 TDs, expecting strong production if Geno Smith is a capable quarterback.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:13
Hall remains one of the best running backs in the league due to his receiving game production, with strong offensive line support unlike some other backs.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:14
Braylon Allen's involvement is not expected to significantly impact Hall's workload, similar to how Blake Corum's touches didn't derail Kyron Williams.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:15
Projections rank Hall as RB13, making him underranked compared to ECR's RB15, suggesting value at his current draft position.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:15
Pat Fitzmaurice agrees Hall is really good with a strong offensive line and notes there's no incentive for the Jets to overwork him given their 2027 draft class focus, making his projected volume reasonable.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeInjury0:35
Jake Seeley references Chris Godwin as an example of a player who was reported 100% ready for week one last year but didn't play until the middle of the season.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection0:07
Pat Fitzmaurice is excited about Loveland's projected 80.4 catches, 949.4 yards, and 7.0 TDs, noting he was tight end 2 from week 9 onward last season and averaged 12 targets, 7 catches, and 94.5 receiving yards in his last four games.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:08
Coaches are expanding Loveland's route tree and expressing enthusiasm about his development, suggesting increased offensive involvement.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:09
Loveland offers high-end tight end production at a lower cost than Bowers, making him an attractive third or fourth round target.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:09
Jake Seeley's projections rank Loveland as tight end 1 with 83 catches, 1,004 yards, and 8.3 TDs, with 21.6% target share, and he believes there's room to increase that to 24% where Loveland could lead the team in targets.
Insight pageJameson Williams
NegativeProjection0:27
Jake Seeley does not like Jameson Williams' high projections as WR22, arguing the projections are too aggressive and don't account for risk with Sam Laporta returning healthy and the new offensive coordinator's tight end preference.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:28
Jake Seeley believes Jameson Williams will be the third option behind Sam Laporta and Amonra Brown, not the second, and should be ranked as a WR3 similar to old-school Deshaun Jackson with inconsistent production.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:29
The projections have Jameson Williams at 63 catches, 1,053 yards, and 6.3 touchdowns, which Jake Seeley finds too aggressive for someone who could be the third option, ranking him WR27 instead.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:31
Pat Fitzmaurice is on the side of the projections for Jameson Williams, noting that part of Laporta's underperformance was due to Jameson's breakout and that Campbell yanked play-calling from Morton because he wasn't using Jameson the way Campbell wanted.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:31
Pat Fitzmaurice notes Jameson Williams started seeing more crossers under Campbell and was killing it on those routes, suggesting improved usage.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:32
Jameson Williams averaged exactly 6 targets per game last year, which is not high volume, but his efficiency and big-play ability drive his value.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:32
Pat Fitzmaurice notes Jameson Williams averaged 10.3 yards per target for his career and is highly efficient due to big plays and after-catch ability, making him a home run waiting to happen.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveValue0:23
Jake Seeley ranks Jared Goff as QB19 and thinks he is terrific, highlighting him as a potential waiver wire gem with strong replacement value.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeInjury0:20
Health concerns around Malik Nabers' recovery from a torn ACL and torn meniscus are creating negative vibes heading into the season.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveInjury0:35
Jake Seeley notes that Patrick Mahomes is being reported as 100% ready for week one, but questions the reliability of such claims given historical examples like Chris Godwin last year.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
PositiveProjection0:04
Jake Seeley projects Judkins as a bell cow back with 294 carries, 1,091 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 31 receptions, and 219 receiving yards in a run-heavy Browns offense, expecting him to take a step forward despite the QB situation.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:06
Pat Fitzmaurice notes Judkins dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula in week 16, which raises concerns about efficiency projections in a remade offensive line.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeProjection0:34
Pat Fitzmaurice questions whether the projections are factoring in Rasheed Rice's terrible personal judgment, recent knee cleanup surgery, and rehab work in a Texas jail, arguing the projections don't bake in injury and poor judgment risk.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:34
Rasheed Rice is projected for 100 catches, 1,089 yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns plus 8 rushing carries for 38 yards and another rushing touchdown (12 total TDs), which Pat Fitzmaurice finds overly optimistic given injury and legal concerns.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:35
Jake Seeley is concerned about Rasheed Rice's injury risk and poor judgment, noting he doesn't have him as a top-20 wide receiver in his projections due to too many risk factors.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:36
Jake Seeley projects Rasheed Rice for 87 catches, 975 yards, and 8 touchdowns, ranking him around WR15-16 in his projections.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:36
Jake Seeley ranks Rasheed Rice at WR12 in his rankings, higher than his projections, because he's willing to take the risk once he gets past the top tier, noting Rice has top-five upside if healthy and Mahomes stays healthy.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
PositiveRole0:28
Sam Laporta is back in play and 100% healthy with a new offensive coordinator from the Stefanski tree who loves tight ends and 12/13 personnel sets.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeartPodcasts. Guaranteed Human. Welcome to Fantasy Pros.
0:03This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. Today on the show, we are talking about projections.
0:08Who do projections love? Well, we're going to be doing that.
0:11We've got Pat Fitzmaurice and the Athletics' own Jake Seeley, as they might not love all of these players necessarily, but the projections sure do.
0:19So we're going to have a discussion about some standout projected players, who these guys are excited about.
0:25We've got six names for you, and I'm excited to dig into it.
0:29I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us.
0:33We have the hate episode. Now it's time for a little bit of love.
0:37And when I think about love, I always think about Jake Seeley.
0:41The loving demeanor, the big smile, the happy everything, Jake.
0:44You're what comes to mind when I think about love in projections.
0:48I asked you in the last episode, as somebody that has been doing projections forever, one of the mainstays in the industry
0:55for it, what was kind of a negative or a fault since we were talking about hate?
1:00So what is something that projections in your mind has really nailed or gotten right?
1:05It could be something very simplistic. It statistically put you in the right direction.
1:09You name it. What's something that you have really loved about making projections?
1:13Helps take the bias out of it. And, you know, you go through and you have whatever formula it takes to come up with your projections.
1:21And even with the customizable projections, there's a baseline of per play opportunities and performance that we expect from all these players.
1:28I'm not saying they're going to make 100% right.
1:31They're not. But it kind of helps you take that bias out.
1:35And I reference it and it's going to sound like I'm like victory laughing here, but it's not because, you know, there
1:42was years ago in 2019, I did my projections and it'll always stick in my mind because it's such a good example.
1:49Lamar Jackson spat out as the number two quarterback and that was supposed to be his breakout year.
1:54And I'm like, whoa, that's a little aggressive. Let me personally touch his projections, manipulate them myself and push them down.
2:01And I'll push them down to a happy spot like QB5.
2:04Well, I was dumb because he was QB1 that year, if everybody remembers.
2:08And the projections were even a little bit low.
2:11But that's the point is like the bias wasn't there.
2:14The bias came in from me and saying like, man, that feels kind of aggressive to project that.
2:20So while you can go in and customize my rankings, remember like that's your bias.
2:25This is supposed to give you the baseline and kind of take all that out of the picture to kind of give you like.
2:32And again, we talked about in the last show, it's trying to give you the best estimate like this happens eight out of 10 times.
2:40They're still going to be wrong, but it kind of gives you that like, OK, your opinion doesn't matter.
2:46This is what it should be on like a historical, you know, projection basis.
2:50Fitzy, in the last episode, I did ask you kind of about like, you know, where you've used or do you use
2:57projections as like a baseline or whatever. But now let me make it a little bit different.
3:03Where do you think you side when you do look at projections?
3:06Are you looking and paying attention to the negative or more of the positive?
3:11Because I definitely think that is a common trend for people is they will use.
3:15Obviously, you could use projections as I think reference point is like the greatest use case of it.
3:21But there will be people that are more prone to be hyper focused on the negative or the positive.
3:27What do you think has a bigger impact on you, the negative or positive projection of a player?
3:33Although I'm generally looking for outliers either way, I think I am more it grabs my attention more when a player I
3:40like is projected at numbers that I feel are light.
3:43You know, when projections don't back up my enthusiasm for a player, that's what always makes me take the hardest second look at that player.
3:51OK, well, let's get to some enthusiasm then. Let's make sure we can get Pat up on the positive, not focusing on that negative, because these are projections.
3:59These are players that projections love. And this first segment is about who is exciting you this year.
4:05We had in the last in the hate it was who are you really scared about and worried about?
4:11But who is exciting you guys? If you guys want to follow along with us, go to fantasypros.com slash projections.
4:17You can see what they're looking like. We've got aggregate projections as well, which I think is super beneficial.
4:23Find the median line between different pieces. Fantasypros.com slash projections as well.
4:27Fantasypros.com slash rankings if you want to see the ECR when we kind of dig into that for some of these players.
4:34But let's start with some excitement. Jake, you are going to kick us off here with a running back in Quinshon Judkins.
4:41So give us the excitement and the big play on why we're so excited this year.
4:46Just like no one has ever said Jake is your favorite person and makes everything happy.
4:51Nobody's ever said I'm super excited for nobody else than a Browns player.
4:55But why not do it? Quinchan Jutkins, I thought I was going to be above the projections.
5:00I thought I was going to be one of the highest.
5:03We know what this offense should be and expected to be under similar to a Roman style with Monken and that run heavy.
5:11Bell cow heavy for his lead option, even with Samson involved.
5:14But that gap power, just everything that checks the box for Samson or sorry, Judkins.
5:19Check, check, check, check. Even some usage in the passing game.
5:22And I'm looking. Carries. I'm under. Yards. I'm over.
5:25But rushing touchdowns. Under. Receptions. Under. Receiving yards. Under.
5:28And it's not by a big gap. 177. I have him for 1136.
5:32I actually think he's going to be better on the ground on a per touch basis.
5:37But eight touchdowns. 22. 151. And one in the receiving department.
5:40There's 31. 219. Actually 220. And a half a reception there in the receiving department.
5:45But all that being said is I have him bell cow-y.
5:49Fantasy pros projections have him bell cow-yer. And I think that's the excitement here.
5:53Expect that Judkins, those flashes we saw last year, I think take a step forward this year.
5:58No matter the quarterback situation. I think that Judkins can do well either way.
6:03Especially in an offense that is expected to be one of the more run-heavier offenses in the league.
6:08Pat, what do you think about Quinchon Judkins here?
6:11I like that. Bell cow-y is definitely. That is how I would talk about these type of players.
6:17But heavy praise and heavy projections. Are you buying in?
6:20I do agree with the bell cow-y projections that Jake and fantasy pros both have.
6:25I am feeling like maybe the yardage and touchdown projections are a little bit aggressive for a guy who dislocated his ankle
6:31and fractured his fibula in week 16. And who's going to be playing in a pretty bad offense and running behind a
6:38completely remade offensive line made up of guys who've never really played together before.
6:43So, I don't know if I think the efficiency is going to quite match what the fantasy pros projections have.
6:49But I do agree that if he's able to stay healthy, he should get plenty of touches.
6:54And, again, looking at Judkins here, 294, 1091, eight touchdowns, 31 catches, 219, just under receiving touchdowns.
7:00Let me ask Fitz you a question. Jump in here real quick.
7:03Do you think their offense run game is better or worse than last year or about the same?
7:09Because my only pushback is like – same thing.
7:12It's like I saw eight rushing touchdowns projected for me and then the same thing on fantasy pros.
7:18And I'm like, wow. He ran for seven in 14 games last year.
7:22And I know he's coming off that injury. But, like, I think people forgot that he was able to get in the
7:28end zone as much as he did last season.
7:31Yeah. And I think it's probably no worse than a push for how effective that offense is.
7:37I mean, it's hard for it to get, you know, significantly worse than it was in 25.
7:4225. All right. I know this player is in the excitement range for a lot of people.
7:47Fitz, you're definitely bringing that out here and you're bringing him to the table.
7:52Colson Loveland. So, Colson Loveland coming in at 41 overall, tight end number three.
7:56And you are pretty excited about the projections and the overall run.
8:00So, talk to us about Loveland. Yeah. So, as far as where Loveland ranks in – based on ECR, the projections, my
8:07rankings, tight end three across the board. Maybe for you guys, too.
8:10But it's the projected numbers that have me pretty excited.
8:1480.4 catches, 949.4 yards, 7.0 TDs. I think those are reasonable baseline expectations.
8:18And it's exciting to think about what Loveland's numbers could look like if he outkicks those expectations.
8:23And I think he could. Because we're talking about a guy, after all, who last season from week nine on was tight
8:30end two in fantasy scoring behind only Trey McBride.
8:33And who in his last four games, playoffs included, averaged 12 targets, 7 catches, 94.5 receiving yards.
8:38So, I just – I feel like he could have a big season and it's reassuring to look at the projections and
8:45see that those numbers are also projecting him for a big season.
8:49It's also kind of reassuring. And you've got to be careful about coach speak.
8:53You obviously want to, like, kind of get it in one ear out the other.
8:58But when you hear them talking about they're expanding the route tree for Loveland this year and they're just oohing and aahing
9:05about it, then you can start to do what you just said.
9:08You look at the projections and then you think about the what-ifs.
9:12And the what-ifs become a little bit more plausible when it's, like, route trees expanding.
9:17They're falling in love with him in the offense.
9:20Like, it's one of those guys where it's, like, you miss out on Bowers and it's, like, you can take a third or fourth round shot at Loveland.
9:28You're still getting the high end of tight end and maybe not having the big cost.
9:33There's just so many big positives to it. But what do you think, Jake?
9:38Are you in this same space of excitement around Colson Loveland?
9:41No, I don't have him third. And I don't have him fourth.
9:45I don't have him second. My projections said, and I'm going to leave my hands off of it, just like I should
9:52have done with Mar Jackson, but maybe that's the opposite.
9:55Now you guys should change it. Spat him out as number one at tight end.
10:00Wow. And that's, for reference point, that's with 23% of the target share going to Burden, 22% going to Dunsay, and 21.6%.
10:07Going to Loveland, because that's also including 13.6% including the backfield.
10:10This is, despite having numerous options we like, and everybody's probably seen the video by now where I say buy the cake, not the icing.
10:18If you're concerned. If you're concerned that Loveland has a risk of being the third guy or Dunsay or whatever, I just
10:25say keep buying Caleb Williams if we think this offense is going to buy out or play out.
10:30But I'm still buying Loveland. And I think there's room where you could play with this and turn him up to 24%
10:37and leads the entire team in targets. And I am for 83, 1,004 and 8.3 touchdowns.
10:42And honestly, I don't think that's a ceiling. I think there's more for that.
10:47So if you want to make the argument to let other people take Bowers and McBride and take Loveland the round after, thumbs up.
10:54Go for it. Hands where we can see them, pal.
10:57Don't you dare touch those projections. You keep them right where they are.
11:01You listen to what you said. I love that.
11:04That's awesome. That's a fun nugget there. I don't know what to do with them.
11:09Hands up. Don't touch the projections is what you're going to do with them.
11:13All right. So those are a couple of guys that you guys are excited about.
11:18We're now going to jump into projections versus ECR.
11:21So this is looking at some of the ECR.
11:24And obviously, the projections are going to be this, you know, a positive outcome.
11:28You guys also have the ability here to be negative against that positive.
11:32But these are four standout projections versus ECR. Before we do it, though, I want to remind you guys we're talking about projections.
11:39Projections can help you spot value before the draft room catches up.
11:43And that's why you guys can use the cheat sheet creator.
11:47You can build custom rankings for your league. Adjust players based on your strategy like, oh, I don't know.
11:53Colson Loveland is a must target. You can add tiers, tags, player notes, and you can move projected back targets up your board before draft day.
12:01So when one of these players falls where he should go, you're all ready to take advantage of it.
12:07Go to fantasypros.com slash sheet or download the Fantasy Pros app.
12:10And you can build these customized cheat sheets today.
12:13They're very super helpful. You can also build a couple different ones to try out those strategies when you're getting in mock drafts.
12:20Do it. Get your draft set with the cheat sheets at fantasypros.com slash cheat.
12:24All right. Let's jump into this. We've got a quarterback, a running back, a tight end, and then we've got a flex
12:31spot here of another player that we can talk about.
12:34So we will cover each one of those. Jake, you're going to kick us off here.
12:39This is going to be a high projection. You get to take either range.
12:44You pick this player out. And he is Brees Hall.
12:47Comes in at 36 overall on ECR. He comes in as RB15.
12:51But what say you on the love of the projections of Brees Hall this year?
12:55I love seeing it because I also love the projections for Brees Hall, similar to my Jutkin stake, is that I'm expecting
13:02to feel pretty high on Brees Hall. Mostly because I've been on this very network and Bogman just wanted to laugh himself
13:09out of the chair when I said, Geno Smith isn't the worst thing in the world in a super flex as your third quarterback.
13:17And that's all I was suggesting to say the point that Geno Smith is getting lambasted for what went wrong last year
13:24when everybody's sitting there at the same time saying the Raiders did everything wrong.
13:28And we look at the Jets and if Geno can just be a capable, he doesn't even need to be middle of
13:35the pack quarterback, but a capable quarterback for this team and this offense where Brees Hall is still one of the better
13:42running backs on a per touch basis, even with the miserable team he played for last year.
13:47Miserable offense he played for. The offensive line is still strong enough to hold them, unlike the concerns we might have for Judkins.
13:54But Brees Hall, 300 plus touches. Like I had him very close to 300 and I was expecting again to be kind of the highest on Brees Hall.
14:03And the biggest thing I think is because everybody's looking at Braylon Allen.
14:07I know Braylon Allen just said he was like the slimmest 250 he's ever been or whatever.
14:13It's best shape of your lifetime of the year.
14:15But Braylon Allen, I look as kind of like the Blake Corum to Kyron Williams, where it's fine if he sees some touches.
14:23I actually don't even think it'll be as many touches as Kyron seeds to Corum.
14:27But if Hall seeds some to Braylon Allen, it's not the end of the world.
14:32Not every running back needs to touch the ball 80% of the time.
14:36Ashton Gentty last year. How did that work out?
14:39So it really depends on the offense and the style and everything there.
14:43And Brees Hall is just still one of the best running backs in the league because of also how much he does in the receiving game.
14:51And so that's why I'm super excited to see that the projections are as excited as I am to see that.
14:58260 carries and then 47 and a half receptions tossed on top of it.
15:02For all intents and purposes, just about 1,600 yards and nine touchdowns.
15:06I think that's well in play if Geno is a capable quarterback.
15:10Yeah, 1,157 rushing yards, 415 receiving. Everything you laid out, almost 10 touchdowns.
15:14There's some pretty aggressive stuff in there. Brees Hall comes in also as the projected 13th running back.
15:19So ECR was, what did I say? 15. The projected number makes him the 13th.
15:24So there's a little bit of a battle there happening.
15:27So he might be, he's underranked technically based off of where the projections are at.
15:32Yeah, I forgot to mention that. I actually have him as my 14th.
15:36I have Jeremiah Love one spot in front of him.
15:39I think that might be the one that they're from.
15:42Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Jeremiah Love is one spot under on the projected side.
15:46So you're also higher than ECR. Pat, what do you think about Brees Hall?
15:51Quarterbacking question, big productions projected. What say you? I'm more aligned with ECR than projections, but I'm also pretty much on board with everything Jake said about Hall.
15:59He's really good. This offensive line should be no worse than average and potentially better than average.
16:05And, you know, unlike Scott Bogman, I would happily take Geno Smith as my third quarterback in the Superflakes.
16:11I'm totally fine with that. The thing that Jake said where Jake has lower volume in his projections than we have, I
16:17very much agree with that because why would you kill Brees Hall in a year that you know is you're not going to the promised land?
16:26And you've got, yeah, you've got three first round picks in what should be a loaded 2027 class.
16:31There's just really no incentive for you to beat Brees Hall in the ground, especially when you've got two potentially pretty decent
16:38backups behind him and not only Braylon Allen, but Isaiah Davis too.
16:42So I just don't see if, you know, the Jets have their wits about them, which, you know, that's always up for debate.
16:49But I just don't see the incentive to give Brees Hall 20 touches a game this year.
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19:09Slash com. Bogman taking ricochet shots in this episode.
19:12But there's one. He will never back down about his hate for Geno Smith.
19:16We've had years, a couple years ago, going on about that.
19:20He has just a built-in hate of Geno Smith.
19:23And that is never going to push it. And Omerta.
19:26Yeah. It doesn't matter. You could just put, you know, prime Barry Sanders, prime Jerry Rice around him.
19:31And Geno's going to ruin everybody. That makes me laugh.
19:34All right. Pat, you've got a guy here. Projections versus ECR.
19:38It's Jackson Dart. Jackson Dart with a 78 overall on the ECR.
19:42Just kind of consensus overall board. But QB 10, that is not where projections end up putting him out.
19:48As a matter of fact, I'll let you give the numbers.
19:51But he comes in at quarterback six based off of the consensus fantasy pros projection.
19:56So this is a very big ECR versus projected number.
19:59You can talk about the numbers and what you think about this.
20:03But let's hear about Jackson Dart. Yeah. And the projections have Dart for about 3,600 passing yards.
20:0823 and a half touchdown passes. 542.6 rushing yards and 6.8 touchdown runs.
20:12And I could actually get on board with those projections if Dart makes 16 or 17 starts.
20:17And if Malik Neighbors plays at least, say, 15 games.
20:21But as we all know, the vibes on Neighbors recovery from a torn ACL and torn meniscus, not great.
20:26All offseason. Kind of running around like Fred Sanford at some team charity softball game.
20:31And, you know, young ones go see the reruns of Sanford and Son if you want to understand that reference.
20:37A lot of reruns being watched these days too there, Pat.
20:41But yeah, I got you. Yes, exactly. And then Dart.
20:44Like we can all agree. I think that Dart had a pretty reckless style of play his rookie year, you know, and
20:51took some hellacious hits, including one against the Bears that gave him a concussion that knocked him out for a couple of games.
20:58And maybe even if Dart stays mostly healthy this season, I'm not going to lie.
21:03I'm not feeling all that great about Dart taking a big leap forward in year two with Matt Nagy as the Giants offensive coordinator.
21:10All right. So Pat's a little bit negative against this.
21:13So this is a big positive projection that not necessarily buying probably closer into the ECR.
21:18Real quick, Pat, are you closer to ECR range like QB 9 or 10?
21:23I'm QB 13. Okay, even more. I'm ECR too.
21:26So yeah, these projections are definitely, you know, rosy.
21:28Definitely rosy. I mean, it's the sixth QB. But Jake, what do you think here?
21:33ECR versus projections versus Pat. Where do you lie?
21:36It's funny is I'm on both sides. So ECR, I'm higher because once I miss on the top six quarterbacks, I'm chasing the upside.
21:44Like I go back to the conversation we had on the other show is between Brock Purdy, Dart, Lawrence and all those type of guys.
21:51I'm going to chase to one because of the rushing upside.
21:55That's the biggest push for Dart is that I'm actually above on consensus in his rushing yards and touchdowns.
22:01Not by a lot, but a bit. I actually mostly in the touchdowns.
22:05I'm from eight rushing touchdowns just because I don't think that's going to change a lot.
22:10And of course, if he gets hurt, there's the major risk.
22:13I'm actually under in the passing and the projections are under.
22:17I'm at QB 12. I have him at QB 9 in rankings because I would take that chance.
22:22Like I don't want QB 12. I don't really want QB 9.
22:26I want the guy in that range that I think has the chance to finish top six.
22:31So I'm going to take that shot. But I do agree a lot with Fitz.
22:36The one pushback I always give with everybody talking about Nagy is I actually like what Harbaugh did.
22:42He brought on Nagy and Roman. Nagy sucks in the run department.
22:46Roman sucks in the pass department. He's giving them one job to do and said, stop trying to do both.
22:52You focus on the pass. You focus on the run.
22:55And he might get the best out of both of them.
22:58But it all goes back to the part that I agree the most and why my projections are actually under on the
23:05passing department from what Fancy Pros has. It's because I don't think he's necessarily going to pass 505, 510 times.
23:12I have him for 479. Mostly because of this offense and the health of Malik Nabors and the question marks at wide receivers.
23:19There's a lot here that maybe we're saying next year we should have seen it coming.
23:24Or maybe it's the second part of the year when Nabors is 100%.
23:28But with Fitz, I'm more wary on it all connecting and hitting this season.
23:32Despite the fact I will take the chance because, again, I want to chase that top six upside, even with the risk
23:39that I might be looking for a new quarterback come week four.
23:43But the thing is replacement value is so high this year that if you decide you can't deal with Jackson Dart, the
23:50guy you pick up off waivers might be like Jared Goff.
23:53Jared Goff is my quarterback 19, and I think Jared Goff is terrific.
23:57I feel like this is like the tail as old as time type of thing where it's like, oh, you missed out on the top tier quarterbacks.
24:06And it's like, who wants to mess with that middle range?
24:09Who wants to mess with that cost when it's like the variance between QB7 and QB14 is like super low?
24:15And then everyone starts – the only time that those guys become values is when everybody's playing the same dance.
24:22Who's going to break first and take the quarterback six, seven, eight or whatever, and everybody's waiting at the latter part of it?
24:29Then maybe you can find a deal, but it's just like – it's just not worth it.
24:34So very interesting break. You have to go from – It was basically QB8 to QB18 last year to get two points per game difference.
24:42I mean, yeah, that's a well said. Great point to the reason behind it.
24:46Love to see people's takes on Jackson Dart here because I think you're going to have a variance across the board here.
24:53Big ECR differences, especially from U2 versus what the projections are looking like.
24:57We've got two more players here. But first, today, our show is brought to you by presenting sponsor – all the shows – Hard Rock Bet, Florida Sportsbook.
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27:15Final two, we're going to a wide receiver. We actually have a couple wide receivers to talk about.
27:21Jake, you are looking at the high projections of Jameson Williams, who is wide receiver 25 on ECR, 50th overall, but his
27:28projections on Fantasy Pros put him as wide receiver 22.
27:31So the 22 highest projected wide receiver. What say you, my friend?
27:35I say I was trying to be mostly positive from the last show, even though we were hating on projections, to mostly
27:41positive so far on this one to now. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
27:46I do not like this at all. Mostly we've already seen this story.
27:50And, you know, I even made the joke on Twitter like a bunch of people did.
27:55And I used the thing from Thanos and I said, you know, we got the breakout from Jamison Williams.
28:01What did it cost you? It cost you Sam Laporta.
28:04Well, Sam Laporta is back in play. Sam Laporta is 100%.
28:08Sam Laporta also has an offensive coordinator who is strictly under that Stefanski tree of loving tight ends, loving their usage, loving 12 and 13 sets even.
28:16And it just makes me get this feeling to my stomach of remember Jamison Williams before we saw Dan Campbell take Dan
28:23Campbell take back over the play calling that we're going back to that Jamison Williams or basically Jamison Williams for two years
28:30ago when it was back to that Jamison Williams, where he's a great third option, but it's going to be Laporta as the two.
28:38And that's look, there's a world where that doesn't happen.
28:41And Jamison is still the number two on this team.
28:44And Laporta is the three and I'm talking about opportunity sharing all that type of stuff.
28:49But to put him here locked into a top 24 wide receiver, not accounting for that risk, especially with the offensive style
28:56and a healthy Laporta, 100% healthy Laporta. I just you got to factor some of that in my opinion.
29:02I think Jamison Williams needs to be further down into the wide receiver threes, similar to old school Deshaun Jackson, where you know what?
29:09You're going to get eight great games, but trying to predict when those are going to happen is going to be the most frustrating part of Jamison Williams.
29:18And I don't want a wide receiver with that kind of inconsistency as my two as my three.
29:24I'll take them all day long, but I do not love how aggressive these projections feel.
29:29I know they're not super aggressive, but 1050 yards and six and almost six and a half touchdowns feels like a lot
29:35for somebody who could be the third option behind Laporta.
29:39Yeah, 63 catches, as you said, 1053, 6.3 on the touchdowns.
29:42He is above Alex Pierce, Alec Pierce, Ladd McConkie, Cortland Sutton, right below Terry McLaurin, Devontae Adams, Ted O'Reilly McMillan.
29:48He is within one. Above McConkie is bananas to me.
29:51Let me make that clear. But even if he hits those numbers, let me make that clear.
29:57Like, even if he has those numbers, because my projections aren't that far off, but I just have him down at wide
30:04receiver 27 in my projections, is it's going to be an inconsistent ride to get there.
30:09Yeah, I'm staring at this, too. It's like, is this Stanis?
30:12It's half PPR. It's weird, because McLaurin is projected for, like, 10 more catches, a touchdown and a half more, and a
30:19little bit less yards, but they're within, like, one point of each other.
30:23Waddle's behind him. Boudle is behind him. McLaurin, as you said.
30:27Devontae Smith is behind. Like, this is... There's a little bit of projected rushing yards, because they like to do that with
30:33Jameson Williams, so that's kind of factored in, like, slightly.
30:37But, Pat, what do you think? Like, Jameson Williams, are you on the opposite side of this?
30:42Are you maybe a plus on Jameson Williams in this offense, or do you agree this is overinflated for someone that is...
30:49I mean, you guys are saying three. I'm going to just be four.
30:53I think it's probably more fourth than the offense behind...
30:56Gibbs included. Not just Laporta. Yeah, yeah. We're throwing Gibbs in there with Laporta and Amonra.
31:01I'm kind of on the side of the projections, and that's sort of where I am as far as my rankings.
31:08I think Jake makes a solid point. Like, part of the reason Laporta has sort of underperformed the last couple of years, no doubt it's health-related.
31:16But I also think part of it is related to the breakout we've seen from Jameson Williams the last couple of years.
31:23And the breakout was largely Jameson Williams staying healthy.
31:25As far as the play-calling thing, so I think part of the reason that Campbell yanked play-calling duties away from John Morton,
31:32was that he wasn't using Jameson Williams the way Campbell wanted him to be.
31:37We started seeing Jameson on more crossers, and he was killing it on crossers.
31:41He was averaging... But then why bring in Petsing?
31:44That's what's so baffling to me, Fitz. Right. But don't you think, though, Jake, when Petsing was interviewing, part of it was
31:51like, okay, how are you going to use Jameson Williams?
31:54What is your plan? And if that plan didn't jibe with what Dan Campbell thinks is best, I don't think Petsing would have gotten the gig.
32:02It could be. It could have been like, I saw what you did with McBride.
32:07So maybe Laporta can take that next step. Don't disagree.
32:10For everybody listening right now or watching, I don't want to get too hung up in you versus me on this one.
32:17I think the biggest takeaway I want to make clear is that where he's at is too aggressive overall.
32:23Because it's just not factoring any risk. For him to be what you say, wide receiver 24, 25, that's him clearly being
32:30the number two and Laporta being the four, like you were saying.
32:33So that's my issue. I agree. And the final point I'll make is that I just don't think Jameson's value is not necessarily volume based.
32:41He averaged exactly six targets a game last year, which isn't that much.
32:45But for his career, he is averaging 10.3 yards per target.
32:49Like he is highly efficient because of the big plays he makes and all the damage he can do after the catch.
32:56This guy is like a home run waiting to happen.
32:59So that's why I can kind of get down with the projections here.
33:03Okay. Boy, I'll tell you though. Look at the overall.
33:06And I see Bucky Irving below him. I see Mike Evans below him.
33:10And I'm like, all right. Like, I don't know how much we're going to vibe on it.
33:15But yeah, he's a big explosive play. That's actually also my weird take of like McLaurin and him.
33:21I look at that and it's like McLaurin makes his, you know, a lot of his weight off of like big plays as well.
33:29I just think there's a better chance of volume for a guy like him over Jameson Williams.
33:34And Williams being over him just stands out. The last one, fireworks here, you know, or police sirens, however you want to look at it.
33:42Pat, you picked Rasheed Rice. Rasheed Rice comes in at 27 overall.
33:45Wide receiver 12 here. His projections, I know this is going to be part of your tell here.
33:51He is the sixth highest projected wide receiver. So there is a clear stance here of people having just overall concerns about
33:58what the hell is just going on with him in general.
34:01The projections are high. The ECR, it's still high, but it's like quite a big difference between like what the projected numbers are.
34:09There's just all this, you know, stuff in the offseason.
34:12You tell us. Do you love? Do you hate?
34:15Are the offseason things worrying you that there could be more to come?
34:19What do you make of this very, very high projection on Rasheed Rice?
34:23Yeah. If we're using AI for these projections, are we feeding the AI some of these police reports and news stories?
34:29Are they pulling Jerry Rice numbers? Yeah. I mean, here's the projected stat line we have for Rasheed Rice.
34:35100 catches, 1,090 yards, 8.1 touchdowns. All right. If we get— It's actually 11 touchdowns.
34:408.1 is the rushing attempt. It's 11 projected touchdowns.
34:43Oh, 8.1 is receiving. We have him down for a couple of rushing.
34:47I didn't even see the rushing. So, yeah, are the projections factoring in Rasheed Rice's terrible personal judgment?
34:52Are they factoring in the fact that he recently had a cleanup surgery on his knee and has been having to do
34:59his rehab work in a Texas jail? Like, I just don't feel the projections are baking in the injury risk and the poor judgment risk here.
35:07Simple as that. What about— Like, this one baffles me.
35:11Yeah, go ahead, Jake. Just jump right into this Rasheed Rice.
35:14I was going to say, what about Patrick Mahomes being 100% Patrick Mahomes week one?
35:19Like, I know everything's— Thank you. It's also that time of the year.
35:23Like, Patrick Mahomes, I'm going to be ready 100% for week one.
35:27George Kittle, I'm going to be ready 100% for week— Like, it's that time of year.
35:32Everybody's 100%. And we look back in the history and how many times did we get to week one?
35:38Hell, this time last year— No, completely different player.
35:40But at this time last year, it was Chris Godwin, 100% ready week one.
35:45And we didn't see Chris Godwin until the middle of the season.
35:49And now even probably 100% until this year. So I just bring it up to say is, like, I think— I can't agree with Fitz anymore on this.
35:57I don't even have him as a wide receiver, one of my projections, because I just think there are way too many
36:04factors at risk and in play here to have Rasheed Rice looking that optimistic.
36:09Jake, where do you have him? I have him for 87, 975, and 8.
36:13Oh, I meant rank. I meant— Oh, rank? That's probably like 15.
36:17Well, that's two different stories, too. So, like, he checks in as a top 20 in projections rank, I think.
36:23Let me go back, and I will tell you in one second as I fill time and air to say, like, I
36:30will tell you— I see how I did there.
36:33I'm wide receivers. Go ahead. Where do you have him?
36:36No, no, no. Where do you have him as— This is what I wanted to know.
36:4116. Okay. I'm actually higher than my projections because this goes into play of where I'll take the risk because he still
36:48has to— Similar to the dark conversation. I have him 12 because once I get past in my ranks, I feel like A.J.
36:55Brown was now the drop-off. Initially, I would say C.D.
36:58Lamb at 7 was the drop-off, but now Brown at 8.
37:01After that, with, like, the Nico Collins, Alave, McMillan, Flowers, Higgins, Rice, they could all finish as wide receiver ones and all could finish as wide receiver 18.
37:10But if he's a healthy—Mahomes is healthy. He stays on the field.
37:14He gets the target share. I mean, we know Rasheed Rice has top-five upside, and that's why I would take the chance
37:21once I get into that conversation in names. Again, the number is 100.1 projected receptions, 1,089 yards, 11 receiving touchdowns, plus 8
37:28carries 38 yards, and another rushing touchdown. So that is a projected 12 touchdowns out of Rasheed Rice this year.
37:34That could happen. He's got 14 for his career.
37:37Show me the projected games. Right, he's averaged basically half a touchdown per game over his career.
37:42That seems pretty aggressive. I would say I think the most important projection is games played, is what I want to see
37:49before I start diving into the waters there. So very interesting stuff.
37:53Again, projections. Lovin' Quinchon Jutkins, Colson Loveland, Brees Hall, Jackson Dart, Jamison Williams, and Rasheed Rice.
37:58The takes all around the board here. You guys can drop your comments below what you guys think about some of these projections.
38:05Very, very fun experiment. You guys can also check out all of these projections, and you guys can drop us comments about
38:12what you think is crazy, what you love, and what you hate at fantasypros.com slash projections.
38:17You can see the ECR at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
38:20You can also just download the app and get everything.
38:23Download the app and get you set for this season, whether you're getting into cheat sheets, mock drafts.
38:29You want to check the rankings, projections. Just make it easy on yourself, but make sure Fantasy Pros is with you.
38:35For the Athletics' own Jake Seeley, that is Pat Fitzmaurice.
38:38I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys for hanging out with us, and hopefully you have a great one, and we'll talk to
38:45you next time right here on Fantasy Pros. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
38:51If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
39:00Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
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