6 Fantasy Football Players Projections HATE | Draft Picks with Red Flags (Ep. 2051)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
40 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 11, 2026
Published
Thu, June 11, 2026
12
Player insights
7
Players mentioned
Topics
Cam WardCarnell TateDavid MontgomeryJustin HerbertMike EvansBucky IrvingKenneth Gainwell
Player analysis
Player insights
Bucky Irving
PositiveProjection0:43
Bucky Irving is viewed as the superior player compared to Kenny Gainwell, with projections suggesting he could have a significant role in the offense if healthy.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection0:15
Cam Ward's projections are not aggressive enough for a potential breakout, with estimates of just under 3,500 yards and 19 touchdowns, indicating skepticism about his development.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:18
Cam Ward's projections are difficult to determine, with potential for either a major breakout or a disappointing second year. He is currently ranked as QB 24, making him a potential QB2 option in deeper leagues.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeProjection0:06
The consensus projections for Carnell Tate are conservative, predicting 66 receptions for 899 yards and 4.3 touchdowns, which may not reflect his potential as a breakout player.
Insight pageNegativeRole2:34
Target competition could limit Carnell Tate's opportunities as a rookie for the Tennessee Titans.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveProjection0:45
David Montgomery is projected as RB 24 with 230 carries and 930 rushing yards, but many believe these projections are too low given his potential role as the lead back in Houston.
Insight pagePositiveDepth Chart31:06
David Montgomery's role and usage will be closely monitored as the season progresses.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection0:10
Justin Herbert is projected as QB12 with 3,810 passing yards and 26.8 touchdowns, which some analysts believe is reasonable given his previous performance.
Insight pageNegativeProjection3:47
A run-heavy approach for the Los Angeles Chargers may restrict Justin Herbert's fantasy upside this season.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
NegativeRole4:45
Kenneth Gainwell may struggle to find his role in the crowded backfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeProjection0:22
Mike Evans is projected to have 63 catches, 900 yards, and six touchdowns, ranking him as WR 26. However, projections are low on him due to concerns about his touchdown potential and age-related decline.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout0:36
If Mike Evans plays a full season in a Kyle Shanahan offense with Brock Purdy, he has a strong chance to exceed 1,000 yards and potentially score more than six touchdowns.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:03Guaranteed Human. Varieties available in all geographies.
0:06Warning, this product can cause mouth cancer. Hello friends and welcome into FantasyPros, the Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:12I am Chris Wells and today we're talking about some hate, but the hate is going to be pushed more towards projections.
0:19And that hate might have you about projections overall, but this is players the projections are just not in love with.
0:25And to do so with all of this hate on the projections, we're going to have a couple of my favorite people
0:31on the planet talking about where they stand on this.
0:34Plus we can kind of talk about projections in general.
0:38We got Pat Fitzmorris and Jake Seeley. Gentlemen, it is great to have you.
0:43Jake, I feel like we haven't done a show in some time.
0:46So what are we, what's something to complain about?
0:49Since we're talking about projections, I feel like this is a good complaint corner type of show.
0:54You got any projection complaints to throw out at us?
0:57Yeah, you're not my friend anymore.
1:00Apparently that like we don't talk anymore. We don't hang out.
1:03We used to get gelato together. Although I will say I have a little bit more hate for Fitz cause he still
1:09hasn't even met me in person yet. So like that, that's a little bit different.
1:14I do have the personal in touch.
1:17We went to wrestling together. We saw the Royal Rump.
1:20Professional. Like that wasn't something we were doing. We didn't like wrestling or anything like that.
1:25Um, real quick before we jump into this. So the, the subject of what we're talking about today is, uh, player projections
1:31that are not kind and however we're going to sit on that.
1:35We've got six players that we're going to be discussing today.
1:38Pat real quick. What is your overall take on projections as somebody that does fantasy baseball projections really,
1:45really dominate a lot of the think tank. I don't quite get the same vibe, um, over the years that fantasy football has done that.
1:52I think projections continuously get better. What we have here at fantasy pros, I think is a really interesting thing where we
1:58have, you know, the consensus built together projections that are taking different outlets.
2:02And that's like the ultimate projection. But what I want to know is what is your take when you look at projections?
2:09How heavily are projections weighted into your off season prep?
2:13How much attention do you give them in general?
2:16I think it's worthwhile to pay attention to them for sort of a preconceived look at how we think offenses are going to work.
2:24Um, how many touches we think people are going to get, how targets, how carries are going to be parceled out.
2:30I do think they're less useful for football than they are for baseball, where baseball, you've got these, um, you know, such
2:37a big sample size of at bats and batters faced.
2:39Whereas football is more of like a big event sport.
2:44You've got these big plays and obviously injuries are what always torpedo projections because guys get hurts and that sort of shakes
2:50up the usage, um, how touches and, uh, you know, targets carries are parceled out in a given offense.
2:56And like injuries are so much more commonplace in football and so much more impactful, I think than
3:02they are in baseball that inevitably that's going to just, it just always sort of lands a torpedo to the, you know, hull of your projection submarine.
3:10And, uh, you know, like it just changes plans so abruptly.
3:13That's why I think projections are kind of, you, medium projections can be good, but obviously injuries are going to wreak havoc with medium projections.
3:21Jake, as somebody that, uh, does their own projections and has built projections for a long time, since
3:27this is kind of the, uh, projection hate episode, if you will, projections are not on, uh, players.
3:33As someone that does in themselves, where do you think the flaw is in projections?
3:37Um, if, if you could identify, like, what do you think one of the biggest fantasy football flawed projection things are?
3:43So I think kind of what Fitz was just saying is that the flaw is it's inherently conservative.
3:50And I think that's really the thing is that if you look at projections across the landscape, it's kind of like a,
3:56Hey, this is the 80 percentile versus the 20 percentile outcome.
3:59And you don't get a lot of wide range outcomes when you're looking across all these projections, which is why, um, mine,
4:06mine are my personal projections because I sit there and go through and like, you know what?
4:11I actually think blank is going to get a 24 target percentage, even though most sites say 19.
4:17But that's why I also did the custom, customizable projections over at the athletic.
4:22You can download them and be like, Jake, you're dumb.
4:25He's only going to get 15 percent. Or I think somebody is going to pull off a JSN type year and get 30 percent.
4:32And you can kind of see how that affects not just that player, but everybody on the team.
4:37And I'm not saying go do that with every single team, but it's where that flaw lies is why I have the custom one out there.
4:45So you can say, you know what? There are like what Fitz was just saying.
4:49There are a wider range of outcomes, whether by injury, whether by Brian Thomas falling off because of
4:56injury and also the team change landscape wise as Lawrence broke out from Mac Jones.
5:00And that's why I think that gives you the better tell is like kind of playing with them and seeing like, OK, Lemon fails as a rookie.
5:08Well, what does that mean for everybody else? Because it's going to have to be somewhere else on the team.
5:14Like you can't just be like, oh, you know, hurts throws for thirty five hundred yards, but there's only twenty eight hundred accounted for everybody on the team.
5:22I love it. Good conversation.
5:25You guys can continue it in the comments, your feelings on projections, but you also can kind of follow along with us here.
5:32If you go to fantasy pros dot com slash projections, it will take you to our sheet, which has got a couple
5:38different sources that it can kind of have, you know, build the ultimate average out.
5:43You can take a look at fantasy pros projections as well.
5:46Helpful tool. That is what we're going to be citing into this episode.
5:50So let's jump into it. We've got two different pieces that we're going to be hitting.
5:54We're going to be talking about projections versus ECR.
5:58These are going to be some players that both of these fine gentlemen have picked positively or negatively, like whatever the projection is.
6:05Obviously, the projection is going to be they don't like them, but what their feelings on said players could change.
6:11But first off, let's jump into who scares us the most.
6:14So we're looking at the projections here. This is the scariest one or maybe there's going to be some others, but this
6:21is the guy that jumped out here. So the projections.
6:24Hey, this player scares us the most.
6:27Jake, we're going to start with you and your player you picked was Carnell Tate, who has a 66 overall on the
6:33just overall ECR expert consensus ranks and comes in at wide receiver 30.
6:37Give us your thoughts. I'll give the projections here in just a second, but talk to us about Carnell Tate.
6:43Well, I can give the projections because it's going to tie into my point here and it's going to actually tie into another player.
6:51We're going to talk about later is I hate to see this.
6:55My projections are more aggressive and that's why I was going to reference it.
6:59Projections are 66 receptions, 898, basically 899 yards and 4.3 touchdowns.
7:02Mine are a little bit aggressive at 81, 1075 and 6.5.
7:06Now, to go back to what I was saying at the top, that's with me giving him a 23.8% target share.
7:12The thing that I hate to see here is to go back to the conservative side of it.
7:18There's more of a flat target share between him, Wondell Robinson and Calvin Ridley, which we've seen this week all of a sudden.
7:25And I know it's the best shape of your lifetime of the year, but Calvin Ridley is looking good out there, blah,
7:32blah, blah, all that type of stuff. And it's not that I think Calvin Ridley is going to return to being the number one.
7:39And it's just what if Cornell Tate is just one piece of the puzzle similar to, I just brought up his name
7:45earlier, Jackson Smith Ajiba, his first year, Luther Burden, his first year.
7:49All these wide receivers that step in to an offense where they're only asked to be the third
7:55or second best option until their second season. And that's really what the concern is when I see that.
8:01I hate it because I feel like I hate like that that's a possible outcome.
8:05Like we see Tate where he was drafted. I know Fitz, you've mentioned this before is like the hit rate of wide
8:12receivers in the early first round, let alone that high is actually pretty dang high, especially for their output.
8:17So to see a conservative output of that that far off again from my projections, I mean, that's
8:24more in line with what I have for Wondell Robinson.
8:27So like if we're drafting him as wide receiver 30 and not only does he put up those kind of numbers the
8:33entire year, it's going to be up and down because you don't get you don't have consistency and only get to 804 touchdowns.
8:40So I think that's my biggest concern is that if the projections are right, I actually hate those.
8:45I prefer mine, but I hate seeing that as that.
8:48That's a possibility out there for Cornell Tate. Fitzy 66, 898, 4.3 receptions, yards, touchdowns.
8:54That is the consensus projection here on Fantasy Pros.
8:57Where do you stand on this with what Jake's talking about?
9:00If I was playing this as a Price is Right game and I had to pick a range
9:06that the actual retail price is going to land in, I would guess somewhere between the official Fantasy Pros projections and Jake's projections.
9:13Like I think somewhere in there. I'm curious what you guys think.
9:17We at Fantasy Pros have Tate projected for 13.6 yards per catch.
9:20Do you guys think that number is right? Because I mean, the Titans have other guys to handle the short stuff.
9:26I feel like Tate is going to work downfield.
9:30I was just about to say the same thing.
9:34I agree. I was going to say mine's really close.
9:38I'm actually slightly under, but I'm really close. I actually think that Calvin Ridley might hit the highest yards per reception on this team with this makeup.
9:46But Wondell Robinson by far the shortest. For sure.
9:49So I'm with you. I'm trying to save some of my Cam Ward take, by the way.
9:54That's the other player. So I'm trying not to skew too much into Cam Ward for this discussion.
9:59But yeah, I would agree that Tate is going to be well more downfield than probably anybody else outside of maybe Calvin Ridley.
10:06And we have Tate projected for four and a half touchdowns.
10:10And I think Tate investors would probably be quite disappointed with either four or five touchdowns.
10:15How many do you have them for, Jake? Six and a half.
10:19Six and a half. Yeah, that's a big part of it.
10:23When we get to Cam, there's the difference in the touchdown projection.
10:27That's where it's coming from. Well, who scares Pat the most?
10:31We're going to go to the quarterback position. You can talk about the projections, Pat.
10:35But you've got Justin Herbert, who comes in at 68 overall as QB7.
10:39So this is your biggest scare. So talk to us about the projection and where the scare lies.
10:45Yeah, so ECR for Herbert is QB7.
10:48I've got him at QB6. Our projections have him QB12.
10:51And the thing that scares me, Welsh, is that the projected numbers we have for Herbert seem pretty reasonable.
10:563,810 passing yards, 26.8 touchdown passes. 474 rushing yards and 2.2 touchdown runs.
11:00If anything, I think the rushing yardage seems a little generous.
11:04474 would be just short of the career-high 498 he had last season.
11:09And we know that Herbert kind of had to run for his life last year because the Chargers offensive line was Swiss
11:15cheese without Joe Alton or Sean Slater. Now, I do think Herbert could beat our projection of about 3,800 passing yards.
11:21I mean, he averaged just under 4,700 passing yards over his first three seasons in the league and had a 5,000-yard season in year two.
11:29I like the outlook for the Chargers passing game this year with, like, a better and healthier offensive line.
11:35Mike McDaniel calling the plays. But McDaniel does like to run the ball, too.
11:40And the Chargers have a pretty good defense that should maybe keep Herbert from getting into a lot of shootouts.
11:45Anyway, our projections only have Herbert about 13 points behind QB6, which is where I have him.
11:50But, hey, man, fantasy football is, you know, one at the margins.
11:54And I do like some of the guys who project with slightly better numbers.
11:59So maybe I need to rethink where I have Herbert vis-a-vis guys like Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy.
12:05Jake, what do you think?
12:07Does Pat need to rethink Justin Herbert? Where do you lie on this scare of a projection?
12:12I don't think he necessarily needs to reevaluate unless, you know, push him down just a little bit because apparently I hate Justin Herbert.
12:21The projections for me, like, I haven't even a little bit more conservative.
12:244,000 yards, 26 passing touchdowns. But, too, what Fitz was saying, 384-2 on the ground.
12:29I don't think he's going to rush this much.
12:3213,000, Justin Herbert's down at 297. Even that, it's not even 20 points.
12:35And then if you cut off Jane and Daniels and actually get to Brock Purdy at 7, it's 309 to 297.
12:43Like, I don't think that getting hung up on Herbert being 6, 7, 8 or 15, 16, 14, whatever, is as big
12:49as what people out there might perceive to be.
12:52I think the bigger question here is that does he have the top five upside?
12:56And that's been my biggest pushback is why I don't want to take him at what I consider
13:03is a giant tier of quarterbacks that if I don't get Herbert, I'm okay getting Purdy or Goff or Dart or Nix
13:09or even Mahomes not starting 100% possibly. It's because there's such a slim margin in points per game there.
13:15But going back to what Fitz was saying is that it's not just Mike McDaniel.
13:19Yes, he can make this team more efficient and better in a passing game and even in the run game.
13:25It's how slow his offense is, how slow it already was under Harbaugh.
13:29And you're talking about a team that's probably going to rank in the bottom three, at least bottom
13:36five in plays per game where that efficiency is going to have to be there.
13:40Not that it can't be. It just has to be there for him to really hit that top five.
13:46Very interesting. Very curious. The quarterback side also and projections, I think, is always like a wildly talked about spot.
13:53So Justin Herbert, Carnell Tate, couple guys that are scary in the projections.
13:57We're going to talk about some projections versus ECR and a couple interesting guys that these two have picked.
14:02But before we do, let's talk to you guys about the draft simulator.
14:06Projections are not perfect, but when they're lower than the market on a player, you need to know what alternatives you have.
14:13That is where draft simulator comes in. You can run realistic mock drafts in minutes, test what happens
14:19when you fade risky players and see which values fall to you instead.
14:23Go to fantasypros.com slash mock, or you can download the Fantasy Pros app, try the simulator and build a smarter draft plan
14:29before you actually get on the clock. Put some of these projections to the test, experiment, have some fun and build the
14:36best rosters you can this season at fantasypros.com slash mock.
14:39That's fantasypros.com slash mock. All right. Projections versus ECR.
14:43These are a few more of some handpicked players.
14:45We're going to make sure we at least cover a quarterback or running back and a wide receiver.
14:51We've also got kind of like a flex spot, if you will.
14:54And the first player up here that we're going to talk about their projections versus ECR, Jake, is your boy Cam Ward, who you talked about.
15:02So you've got the overall rank. You've got the positional rank in the projection.
15:06So run us through what you see and then why you picked Cam Ward as someone projections hate and what side you sit on.
15:13So the funny thing is my projections are pretty close.
15:17They're a little bit more aggressive in yards and touchdowns, but they're not far off.
15:22But why I hate seeing this is because thinking about Cam Ward as a breakout second year quarterback, I'm certainly a fan of the talent.
15:29And, you know, love the arm. There was a reason that people were excited for him last year.
15:34It's like, hey, you take a second quarterback. Rookies have done this before.
15:38Maybe he surprises. And we saw flashes. We saw flashes towards the end of the year throwing two touchdowns per game.
15:44But, you know, there weren't easy defenses for all those games.
15:48There were some tough ones mixed in there, but the yards weren't there.
15:53If you look at his play in general down the stretch to after their bye, he did play really well against five
15:59and six DBs, actually against six DBs plus. Well, not plus.
16:02I mean, six DBs on the field of five DBs plus, but especially six of qualified quarterbacks.
16:07He was third in EPA and completion percentage. So he's playing against defense that are schemed to stop the pass and doing well.
16:14The problem is, is people always go to Brian Dable and they're like, oh, Brian Dable, pass, pass, pass, pass, pass.
16:22If you look at the Giants under Brian Dable, 27th, 25th, 13th and 27th and pass percentage.
16:27He actually doesn't pass as much as people think.
16:29And part of that might be the talent and he might feel better about Cam Ward and the weapons there.
16:35But I think there's a lot here with the Titans that has to kind of change in general from Ward's consistency.
16:41Even with those numbers, he wasn't great in a standard defense setup.
16:45He wasn't great at the time in some of his off throws, off target throws.
16:50So there's a lot that we want to see in his leap and he's not going to be a huge runner.
16:57He'll run when he needs to. But if you told me Justin Herbers finishes with more rushing yards and touchdowns than he
17:03does, I wouldn't be shocked because Cam Ward is just not somebody that's going to be like five, 600 yards.
17:09So there's a lot to break right here where we consider him a starting quarterback and single quarterback league as somebody that people are calling a breakout quarterback.
17:17And I would love to see it. It's just I don't know if the makeup of this team
17:24and the style and everything that's here is there for it to happen necessarily this year.
17:29And that's why I hate seeing that, because I was hoping projections would be more aggressive than I am.
17:34But my projections check in as QB 25 and they have a QB 24.
17:38So it's kind of tough. Yeah, he is 150 overall, quarterback 24 on ECR.
17:44And then when we go and take a look at projections, Cam Ward is just under 3,500 yards, 19 touchdowns, about 10
17:50picks and under 200 yards rushing with just over two rushing touchdowns.
17:54So it's a pretty 3,723 and I still can't get him inside my top 20.
17:58And you said you had him at quarterback 25.
18:01Yeah. Yeah.
18:04Well, that's interesting. I mean, I think your projections were a little bit more aggressive and he's a little bit lower there.
18:10So, yeah, the QB one talk is really interesting.
18:13Pat, what do you think about that? There's some pretty low projections for a commonly at least talked about player that could
18:19be on the precipice of some type of a breakout projections aren't buying it.
18:24Jake wants it, but it's not buying it. What say you?
18:27He is one of those guys who projections are probably pretty hard to come by.
18:32Like, I'd be vexed trying to project Cam Ward for this year.
18:36And I think he's either going it like he has a chance for a major breakout or it could be sort of
18:42a failure to launch in year two. Like, the end was a little encouraging where he had multiple touchdown passes in like three or four straight games.
18:50But, like, do we get a step up now that he's got Carnell Tate and sort of a
18:57different offense and hopefully a healthier and better offensive line?
19:00But, you know, I mean, like, I don't even care that much about the projections because he's QB 24.
19:05I might be willing to draft him as my QB 2 in a league where, like, there are a lot of teams or rosters are especially deep.
19:13And, you know, in a one QB, I think you just kind of drop him and go in a different direction if he doesn't pan out right away.
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22:04All right. Going to the next.
22:07Is he Matthew McConaughey or Bradley Cooper in Failure to Launch?
22:10Which one is he? I knew we were going to have something like that.
22:15This next player, close to my heart for my team, and I love that you picked him because projections don't particularly love
22:22Mike Evans this year, going over to the 49ers and probably being one of the top options.
22:27He comes in at 56 overall, wide receiver 26, nothing crazy or anything, but 63 catches, essentially 900 yards and six touchdowns.
22:33And I know that is not necessarily the narrative, especially around these parts, as our boy Erickson's talking
22:40about the potential to lead the league in touchdowns.
22:42So I think that might be the biggest contention that you tell me, Pat.
22:47Are the touchdowns the biggest thing that jump out to you as you hate to see?
22:51The projections are hateful on Mike Evans because of the touchdown potential.
22:55Is there more? You tell us. You picked him.
22:58Mike Evans. Projections hate him. But what say you, Pat?
23:00Yeah, I mean, I think the production stands out as far as both touchdowns and yardage.
23:06Welsh 899.5 receiving yards, 6.6 touchdowns. And ECR has him at wide receiver 26.
23:11But our projections only have him at wide receiver 33 behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Cortland Sutton, DK Metcalf, and DJ Moore, among others.
23:17And I know Evans is going to be 33 in August.
23:21Last year, he played only eight games and averaged a career low 46 yards per game.
23:26That was a career low by like 16 yards a game.
23:30But if Mike Evans plays 16 or 17 healthy games in a Kyle Shanahan offense with the very capable Brock Purdy at
23:36the controls, do we really think he's not hitting 1,000 yards?
23:39I mean, I suppose there's a chance we get complete age-related attrition for a 33-year-old receiver.
23:44But I feel like it's going to take either an injury to trip up Evans short of 1,000
23:51yards or some combination of other events like George Kittle making good on his vow to play in week one and somehow
23:57being good right away eight months after an Achilles tear.
24:00Or Ricky Pearsall turning into a superstar unexpectedly. But I don't know.
24:04I'm siding with ECR on this one. I've got Evans at wide receiver like 25.
24:08A couple players that have higher projected totals than Mike Evans for this year on the projections.
24:14Jalen Waddell, DJ Moore. And two players right under him that are within three points of the projected is Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers.
24:21So those are a couple players right under. So it's just like a really weird range that he's in.
24:27Jake, what do you think about Mike Evans in this low projection?
24:31Apparently, I'm going to have a lot of Mike Evans.
24:35I'm interested for your take on this. You're the 49ers guy, of course.
24:39But let's also remember when Brock Purdy actually had a healthy Ayuk, a healthy Debo, a healthy Kittle and not a broken
24:45Ayuk and a broken Debo two years ago with Jawan Jennings being his best wide receiver alongside George Kittle.
24:51He threw 31 touchdowns. And then he threw 20 that year.
24:54That was what – and he didn't finish the season or have a full season.
24:58But, I mean, he was thrown to a mess.
25:01And then a lot of mess again last year with a lot of injuries and inconsistencies.
25:07Yeah, he had a Christian McCaffrey. But I think Mike Evans steps in and is immediately the number one – I think
25:13the only downfall here is what Fitz said. If he reaches that cliff, if that injury takes hold and just doesn't let
25:20him ever be himself again because I have him for over 70 catches, over 1,000 yards, and for eight touchdowns.
25:26I don't see any reason why he can't be, even if George Kittle is ready for week one and even if Ricky Pearsall breaks out to a degree.
25:34For reference, I have Pearsall at 64, 9, 50, and 4.
25:38So he's going to be a factor in my rankings as well.
25:42But I also have Brock Purdy throwing 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns because I think Brock Purdy is going to do it
25:49with healthy options just like he did two years ago.
25:51Yeah, they become kind of a chaos mode when they're going to get into the red zone because
25:58if there's a hyper focus on Mike Evans this year, what does Purdy love to do?
26:03He just loves to throw it low down the middle and you're going to have Christian McCaffrey for that, whatever tight end is out there.
26:10If Pearsall is running sick routes on the corners, but that like fade to the corner to Mike Evans is going to be a stable.
26:17So the six touchdown projection, I mean things can get weird, but like if Mike Evans plays the majority of the season,
26:24I'm guessing they have a projected 16 games. Well, if he plays 16 games, he's not going to score six touchdowns.
26:31There's just no chance that that's going to happen.
26:34So obviously I'm a little biased, but I do agree with that one.
26:38Very interesting projections not in on him. We'll see if things change.
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28:44We have got a little bit of a running back conversation.
28:48Projections hate these two running backs. But to you, Jake, we will start with you.
28:52And you are going to be taking us to Kenny Gainwell with a 106 overall ECR.
28:57Comes in as RB37. Let's talk about the projection and what you hate about this.
29:02I hate that. I feel like I'm way too high on Kenny Gainwell.
29:07But I also hate making a decision as of today because a lot of it's going to be contingent on how healthy is Bucky Irving.
29:14But even so, if Bucky Irving is 100%, I've kind of come around on this.
29:18And basically two months ago, Fitz and I have done a show together talking about this and feeling that Bucky Irving was undervalued.
29:25And I don't know if Fitz's tune has changed, but mine has.
29:29And it's mostly because the more I sat there and watched Kenneth Gainwell and understanding for me what
29:35this offense is likely going to be under Zach Robinson is that stretch zone rushing.
29:40And it's not that Bucky Irving can't do it.
29:42But he is that type of style, but he's actually been a little bit better between the tackles, strangely enough, because that's actually his style.
29:50But Kenneth Gainwell is one of the best in the league at zone rushing.
29:54So my concern as I look into this is that we're going to be walking into a 50-50 timeshare even with a healthy Bucky Irving.
30:01If Bucky Irving's not 100%, I think that Gainwell could be walking into even more.
30:07And that's why I hate this projection because the projection is pointing to Irving still being the lead.
30:12But also there's a name I've completely left out, and it's Sean Tucker.
30:16And I know it's – everybody wants to talk up everybody.
30:19Nobody has news to say about anybody right now.
30:22But they're talking about him being the goal line option, which now that is the worst case scenario.
30:27We do not want a committee because committee means just throw it all out the window and stop
30:34trying to chase this backfield because any given week is going to be the wrong week to chase the player that you want.
30:41So I hate that if the projections are right here, it means that my Kenneth Gainwell shares are basically going to be worthless, borderline worthless.
30:48Yeah, and this is a weird one too because it's like you can look at this both ways.
30:54Like do the projections actually hate Kenny Gainwell? Do we just hate it?
30:58Are they – you know, there's a couple different ways.
31:01What's really funny in the projections though is the player that he is right above is Rashad White in Washington.
31:07They're like within a couple points of each other.
31:10The projected numbers, 116 carries, 507 on the rushing side, six total touchdowns, but 56 catches, 390 yards.
31:15So, you know, do projections hate him? I know definitely Jake is not loving this well.
31:21But what say you? Pat, I know you are the big Bucky Irving guy.
31:25We all love actually Bucky Irving here. What do you think about Kenny Gainwell in these projections?
31:30I think the projections are overly generous to Kenny Gainwell at putting him at around 900 yards from scrimmage.
31:37So, you know, I guess Jake is especially generous to Kenny Gainwell.
31:40I just think Bucky Irving's the far better player.
31:43I think Kenny Gainwell is just basically the one-for-one Rashad White replacement as a good pass blocker.
31:48That's the one thing Bucky doesn't do well. So I understand wanting to have a guy you can
31:55put out there in third and long and help Baker and Mayfield not be destroyed.
31:59But, like, Bucky's even a better pass catcher than Kenny Gainwell.
32:02I mean, like, career yards per route run is like 1.52, I think, for Bucky and 1.19 for Gainwell.
32:08And Bucky in his best college season had more catches than Gainwell playing in a much better program against better competition.
32:14So, like, there's no doubt in my mind. And, like, we forget how good Bucky was that rookie year.
32:21Last year, the Bucs offensive line decimated by injuries.
32:24Bucky injured. And, like, late last year, or late in his rookie year, Bucky averaged, like, 115 yards from scrimmage in any
32:30game from, like, week nine on where he played, like, 44% or more of the snaps offensively.
32:35Like, he was fantastic. I just think I'm giving him a mulligan on last year, basically, and I
32:42don't think there's any chance Gainwell, like, beats him on the merits.
32:45Yeah. Maybe also, just to throw this out, maybe the hate could have been on Bucky Irving's projections, by the way.
32:53Just to throw this out since we're talking about him, Bucky's projection, 262, just over 1,000 yards with six rushing touchdowns, 41 catches, 350 with two more.
33:01So, that's eight and a half, roughly, touchdowns, almost 1,420 yards.
33:04I mean, does either one of you, Jake, do you think that is a hateful projection on Bucky?
33:09I feel it's a little bit.
33:12No, and I feel, like, it's what I'm saying.
33:15It's like, I don't disagree with anything about Irving versus Gainwell.
33:18It really comes down to Gainwell's masterclass fit in this kind of offense.
33:22And if I knew Bucky Irving was 100%, the conversation Fitz and I were having two months ago, we were in lockstep.
33:28I was like, you're underwriting Bucky Irving, like all this news about Gainwell signing.
33:32But it comes down to the door being open, and that's why I brought this up is because,
33:39as of today, the feeling in a sense that it seems like this team is heading towards is a Pittsburgh Steelers, a Seahawks situation.
33:46And it's going to be 50-45 or 55-45. And that's frustrating, but it's value for Gainwell right now.
33:51Now, if I'm wrong, and that's where I'm going with this, if the projections are right, I hate
33:58to see this, and I'm wrong, and it is still 60-40 Irving and 100% healthy Irving, then Gainwell's basically going to be a bust and throw him away.
34:06That's what I'm saying. And I know bust as an RB4 is fine, but I'm looking that he could probably be a
34:13flex RB3 running back in that scenario, but not in the scenario the projections and Fitz have him for.
34:18Yeah, and he was RB37, too, on there, too.
34:22Go ahead, Fitz. With Gainwell and Bucky projected for a combined 2,300 yards from scrimmage.
34:28I'm guessing we don't have K-Dot projected for 1,000-yard scrimmage.
34:31That'll be for another episode, another tight-end episode you and me do, Pat.
34:36All right, final thing here. I actually think this might be one of the most intriguing ones on here.
34:41It's probably my favorite on this list. And, Pat, this is yours.
34:45It's David Montgomery. David Montgomery, who goes over to Houston, slots in ECR-wise as RB24.5 PPR, 61 overall.
34:50Pat, if you – I mean, I can read it off, but I'll let you do it as well if you want.
34:57The projection on him just doesn't – like when you see him unleashed, you're just like, what?
35:02Like it doesn't vibe. But just as a perspective, Rico Dowdle, Jadarian Price, you know, Basel Tootin, all
35:08of those guys dramatically projected for higher points than David Montgomery.
35:11I'm glad I finished swallowing because that would have spit all over the camera.
35:17Yeah. Exactly.
35:19Yeah. I mean, I've got him RB20, but our projections have him RB27 behind guys I would not draft ahead of him.
35:26Like Tootin with his vague role and Price, who we've never seen do it in the NFL and might be in a timeshare.
35:33Rico Dowdle, who I'm pretty bearish on this year.
35:35Travion Henderson, okay. I mean, if you're going to project Henderson a little more aggressively than what he was doing last season
35:42in the role he was playing late in the year.
35:45What scares me about the projected numbers for Montgomery is that they seem fairly reasonable in some ways.
35:51Like I do think we're a little light on his rushing attempts.
35:55We have him at 230 carries. So that's about 13.5 a game if he plays 17 games, 14.5 if he plays 16 games.
36:02I think that total could be substantially higher since I don't think Woody Marks is going to get all that many attempts as long as Monty is healthy.
36:10And the Texans defense is outstanding and it's going to present this offense with a lot of run-friendly game scripts.
36:17But otherwise, 7.5 touchdown runs, okay. 4.1 yards per carry.
36:20Maybe a little light, but okay. About 29 catches for 218 yards, sure.
36:24I just think we're a little low on the rushing volume for him.
36:28We have him projected for 930 yards. The guy can't assume he has a 1,000-yard season, but I do think he's set
36:34up to get there if he avoids the injury bug.
36:37And obviously, the projections are assuming a season of mostly good health.
36:42Yeah, and Jake, you almost spit out hearing some of the names that were – and again, we're dancing around.
36:49We have ECR, which is the expert consensus ranks where people are ranking them.
36:53We have the projection and then where the projection puts him is among running backs.
36:57So, like the ECR is slightly higher ranking him than the projection is putting him out there.
37:02But we can't lie here. The projections, they just seem to fade low to a guy that is obviously going to be the main dog here.
37:10So, talk to us about Dave Montgomery. Yeah, actually, so I have him higher in my rankings too.
37:17I have him 19 and I have the projection of 720.
37:20So, that kind of gives you an idea. But the only concern I would have is not the workload.
37:25It's the efficiency. Maybe the efficiency drops back to the inefficient – more inefficient version of Dave Montgomery we had seen.
37:32And we all know we'll be talking about the bears.
37:35But, again, if we're in this range and we're trying to guess what workloads are going to be, like I can't agree with Fitzmore on this one.
37:43I know what Montgomery's workload is going to be.
37:45We're talking about 300 touches probably being like the over-under.
37:49And if he went over that, I wouldn't be shocked.
37:52And that's the biggest takeaway. And 300 touches, even if you average 3.9 yards per carry.
37:57We've seen Najee Harris do it before. He's still going to be a top 20 running back.
38:02And I think that's the biggest takeaway we need to have from this is that the touches are going to be there for Montgomery.
38:09So, don't worry about the inefficient version popping back up.
38:12Carnel Tate, Justin Herbert, Cam Ward, Mike Evans, Kenny Gainwell, and David Montgomery.
38:17Projections hate them. Do these guys? Not necessarily all of them.
38:20But what say you? What say you? You guys can go and check out.
38:24And you can take a look at the projections and talk to us about what other players are standing out.
38:30There's some weird wild stuff. And this is going to continue to grow as the draft season goes on.
38:36You can check it out at fantasypros.com slash projections if you want to see that.
38:40Plus, you can go and check out the rankings, fantasypros.com slash rankings.
38:45You can have play comparison. There's lots of great tools for you to use all of this as well as the draft simulator.
38:52You can take everything we talk about, all the analysis, and you can experiment.
38:56And you can see what some of these players look like on your teams.
39:00For the Athletics' own, Jake Seeley and Pat Fitzmaurice, I'm Chris Wells.
39:04Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us.
39:07And we'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
39:10Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
39:14If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
39:23Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros.
39:26And subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
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