Fantasy Football Bounce-Back Players for 2026: League-Winning Values You Can't Ignore (Ep. 2091)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
37 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 16, 2026
Published
Thu, July 16, 2026
38
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Bucky IrvingXavier WorthyJalen HurtsMark AndrewsRicky PearsallTerry McLaurinMike EvansBrock BowersChristian KirkColston LovelandGeorge KittleIsaiah LikelyKenneth GainwellLamar Jackson
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
PositiveSleeper0:30
Bowers is one of the tight ends Fitz wants to target this season, suggesting he views him as a top-tier option at the position.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveValue0:07
Irving is being drafted as a low-end RB2 despite averaging 20.3 touches per game in 2025 even with Rashad White playing all 17 games, and new OC Zach Robinson sees him similarly to Bijan Robinson with significant passing game upside.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:08
Irving's 2025 rushing yards over expected decline was likely due to Buccaneers OL injuries (ranked 22nd in adjusted line yards vs. 2nd in 2024), not talent regression, and he ranked 6th in the metric in his rookie year.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:09
Irving has averaged 1.56 yards per route run for his NFL career compared to Kenny Gainwell's 1.19, and had 47 catches as a rookie despite limited early-season usage, showing superior receiving ability.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:12
Irving has dealt with multiple injuries across two seasons: foot sprain, shoulder AC joint issues in 2025, and hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues in 2024, raising durability concerns.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:13
Irving's efficiency splits show dramatic differences between zone (3.6 YPC, 48.2% success) and man-gap concepts (6.5 YPC, 57.9% success), and new OC Zach Robinson's outside zone preference from Atlanta could limit his upside.
Insight pageChristian Kirk
NegativeProjection0:18
Kirk couldn't earn targets in Houston last year under Kyle Shanahan's system, illustrating the challenge for receivers to break through in Shanahan's offense.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper0:30
Loveland is one of the tight ends Fitz wants to target this season, suggesting he views him as a top-tier option at the position.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeInjury0:20
Kittle is likely to miss the start of the season and will be coming back slow, potentially missing red zone opportunities early in the year.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveDepth Chart0:31
Isaiah Likely is gone from the Ravens, opening up tight end target share for Mark Andrews.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue0:25
Hurts is QB7 in ADP but represents a buying opportunity as the consensus worries about his adjustment to the new offense, despite a track record of defying expectations and improving under pressure.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:27
With a new offensive coordinator and improved receiving weapons like Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers, Hurts could take another step in his career and access the middle of the field better than before.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:29
Hurts' rushing production declined significantly from over 600 yards in the previous two seasons to 421 last year, and his passing numbers weren't special, which torpedoed his fantasy value.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:29
Hurts is not expected to run a high-volume passing offense like Dak Prescott; the Eagles want him to be a competent passer but rely on his rushing ability.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveProjection0:10
Gainwell was a league winner down the stretch in 2025, averaging 6.7 carries per game (career high) and posting 2.10 yards per route run (14th), with strong explosive run rate and missed tackle rate metrics.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection0:28
Lamar Jackson is QB2 in ADP but came off one of the worst stretches of his career where he didn't produce as QB1 for multiple weeks, yet the market shows less hesitation about him compared to Jalen Hurts.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveValue0:30
Andrews is the best punt option at tight end (TE14 ADP) because you're not paying for downside—if he bounces back, he has sneaky mid-range TE1 upside given his track record in Baltimore.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:30
Andrews had poor numbers last year: 48 catches, 422 yards, 5 TDs, 8.8 yards per catch, 6.0 yards per target, and 1.23 yards per route run, raising questions about whether he's washed.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:31
With Isaiah Likely gone, Andrews should get the lion's share of tight end targets in Baltimore, and his route share of 62.9% last year suggests significant upside if that number increases back to 80%.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:33
Among 40 qualifying tight ends, Andrews ranked 11th in separation score and 6th in route win rate, suggesting he's not washed and has legitimate upside if he returns to full-time status.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveProjection0:17
Evans ranked 23rd in yards per route run, 3rd in route win rate, 8th in separation score, and was elite in route win rate and separation versus both man and zone coverage, showing elite talent across all metrics.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
Evans is expected to get his red zone targets for the Buccaneers despite George Kittle's potential absence early in the season.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveProjection0:22
Rice should be the Chiefs' projected target leader, though durability is a concern given he's played only 12 games in each of the last two seasons.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
PositiveBreakout0:17
Pearsall is being undervalued despite elite talent metrics; when healthy in 2025, he was a top-24 WR in weekly scoring over four games while dealing with a PCL sprain, and has contingent upside if Mike Evans misses time.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:19
Pearsall is being drafted at WR44/102 overall despite being an ultra-athletic former first-round pick with flashes of elite production (14 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs in final two games of rookie year; 11 catches, 181 yards in last two games of 2025).
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
With Juwan Jennings gone and George Kittle potentially slow to return, Pearsall could fill one of the 49ers' top-10 red zone target spots, creating additional opportunity in 2026.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:21
With George Kittle potentially unavailable to start the season, Pearsall may see increased red zone opportunities early in the year.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue0:03
McLaurin is being discounted at back-end WR ADP despite no significant target competition after losing Devo Samuel and Zach Ertz, and with new OC David Blau replacing Cliff Kingsbury's static system, he could see career-high targets.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:04
Despite 2024 injury issues, McLaurin ranked 4th in first downs per route run and 13th in yards per route run, supporting a top-15 WR projection for 2026.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:05
With Jaden Daniels at QB, McLaurin had 82 catches, 1,100 yards, and 13 TDs in 2024, finishing top-10 in half-PPR points per game, and could see career-high targets in 2026.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage0:33
McBride crushed and decimated the tight end position last year because he ran 160 more routes than every other tight end, demonstrating the importance of volume and route share.
Insight pageTyquan Thornton
PositiveRole0:25
Thornton is back as the Chiefs' deep ball threat, which limits Xavier Worthy's role in the offense.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
PositiveValue0:21
Worthy is being given away at WR49 ECR/ADP despite being a first-round pick in 2024 and showing elite production (5.8 catches, 67.9 yards, 0.6 TDs per game) over a 10-game stretch after Rasheed Rice's injury in 2024.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:22
Worthy dislocated his shoulder in the opening game against the Chargers and didn't appear to be himself after returning, with Andy Reid noting the injury limited how he could use Worthy.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:23
Worthy is a good value this year because with his big playability, he doesn't need high volume to be a useful fantasy starter.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper0:23
Despite a disappointing 2025 season, Worthy's yards per game, catch rate, and yards per target metrics were very similar to his 2024 stretch when he was arguably a league winner after Rice went down.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:23
Worthy's separation scores have been poor with win rates of 9.2% and 10.3% over the last two years, and his role in the Chiefs offense is unclear with Rasheed Rice, Travis Kelsey, and Tyquan Thornton all ahead of him.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveRole0:31
Flowers remains the Ravens' top wide receiver option after Zay Flowers, with Rashad Bateman and newly drafted receivers like Elijah Surratt and Jacoby Lane not expected to be prominent target earners.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief.
0:04Learn how Halion can assist your game day goals at halionassist.com slash con.
0:09All right and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:12It's just about that time of year when NFL training camps get underway and redrafts start firing up.
0:18Therefore, we've got six discounted players that left kind of a sour taste in manager's mouth a year ago creating a potential bounce back opportunity.
0:26I'm your host Seth Woolcock back with a couple of boys that I'll be seeing in person in just about a week's
0:33time from now in Canton, Ohio for the Fantasy Football Expo.
0:36That's right. It's Pat Fitzmaurice and downtown Derek Brown.
0:39Fitzy, what's the 101 stop in Canton? Anything from the Pro Football Hall of Fame or George's Lounge?
0:45What sticks out to you there as your 101?
0:48Oh, it's George's Lounge. I'm wearing the t-shirt today.
0:50Let's go! Let's go! Let's go! Yeah. You know, although, what's the name of the golf course we play on Friday?
0:57Spring Valley. Spring Valley. Yeah, I mean, who can forget your incredible pitch in for a birdie last year in our scramble event.
1:04So a lot of different places. Hall of Fame is great.
1:08Just looking forward to seeing everyone. Certainly agreed with you.
1:11D-Bro, also looking forward to seeing you as well.
1:14Although, you kind of act like a bit of a grandpa on this trip.
1:18You retire much earlier in the night than Fitzy and I.
1:22You take your chicken tenders, you go back to your room.
1:25And then I don't see you until like afternoon the next day.
1:29You do sleep in. You can't disagree with that one.
1:32Hold up. Let's correct some things to open this freaking show.
1:36I do not go in early. I will absolutely, Fitz can absolutely vouch, we have closed down George's together.
1:42Now, the part about... That's just the pre-party though.
1:45You missed the after party. Now, the part about me sleeping in is absolutely correct.
1:49I am not a morning person. I will not be out there like Fitzy getting breakfast at 7am.
1:55You will not see me out on the golf course unless it's like we go to a driving range and partake of
2:02a few beverages while we're doing it. I'm not walking an 18 hole course.
2:06I'm just not doing that. But just to correct the record here, I am, I'm, I'm not as young as I once
2:13was, but I'm not old, but I will also, also own.
2:17There are a few people on the face of this planet that can party like a Pat Fitzmaurice.
2:23Okay. I just want to throw that out there.
2:25There are a few humans out there that I have seen in my lifetime that can stay up to 3 or 4am
2:32and toss them back with the best of them and get up at 6am or 7am like nothing ever happened and be
2:39like, hey man, you want to go get some eggs and bacon?
2:43What's up? Let's go. And I'm like, no, I'm going back to sleep.
2:47Nope. So shout out to Patty. Yeah. That's why we appreciate him and need his steady guidance here on this particular program.
2:54Of course, we're going to get to those six favorite bounce back candidates coming your way.
2:59But first, please give this video a thumbs up.
3:02If you enjoy this type of content, if you like hearing about our late nights in can or any of the face
3:09football advice we have to drop for you. Also, don't forget to subscribe to the channel.
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3:19And let's jump right in here. Gentlemen, starting with a player who was pretty doomed from the start, Derek, last year, of
3:26course, having that training camp hold in. Then that turned into a three year, $96 million re-up for this particular player.
3:33Yeah, dude, Tara McLaurin. I mean, his season, all these guys that like have the training camp hold ins.
3:39It's kind of like you're just like, OK, well, when's the injury come and what wrecks your season?
3:45Because it's almost tried and true every single time this happens with contract guys and it happened to McLaurin.
3:51And but it's good, man. Like we're getting a discount on him this year.
3:55Like wide receiver, like a back end wide receiver to an ADP, ECR, best ball ADP, wherever you look at.
4:01And I think it's wrong. I think we get the Terry McLaurin of the previous year where he was wide receiver 14 and fantasy points per game.
4:10I think the bounce back is real. Like what has changed from McLaurin and the outlook of his targets this year?
4:17What what? Like have they added some monster receiver that I'm unaware of?
4:21Chicka Conquo? No. Devo Samuel? Gone. Zach Ertz? Gone.
4:24Antonio Williams? No. So who else are we worried about?
4:27Like who are we really worried about threatening McLaurin's perch at the very top of this target hierarchy?
4:32There's nobody, man. And now we get David Blau coming in without Cliff Kingsbury.
4:37Like Kingsbury has been known for tried and true for years and years.
4:41He's not going to motion guys. He doesn't move them around the formation.
4:45It is static. You play one side, go win your routes and you get targets.
4:50And we could see a career high and that's not insane for Terry McLaurin this year.
4:55And he was freaking fantastic. Like every single per route metric you pull up, he was awesome.
5:00He was fourth and first downs per route run last year, despite with the injury and all the stuff around Washington last year.
5:08Still 13th in yards per route run. I've got McLaurin as a top 15 wide receiver.
5:13And I feel like that's where people should be at because I don't see the downside of McLaurin unless we want to
5:20talk about injuries and what have you. And then it's just like you can make that kind of case for any player in the NFL.
5:28Yeah, it's a great point, Fitzy. Five 1,000 yard seasons for the Ohio State product.
5:32But at the same time, that 2024 season, definitely an outlier because of the touchdowns in particular.
5:38So where do you find McLaurin and where do you find you taking him in drafts if you are at all?
5:44I'm with D-Bro. He's been a pretty easy click for me.
5:48OK. I just think he goes back to where he was with Jaden Daniels.
5:52And maybe that was the difference with his touchdown production in 2024, that he wasn't playing with some of the jabronis he's
5:59had to play with at quarterback in Washington over the years.
6:03So gets Jaden Daniels, immediately has 82 catches, almost 1,100 yards, 13 touchdowns.
6:07And D-Bro, wasn't he top 10 in half-point PPR points per game?
6:11Yeah, he was, man. Yeah. I don't know if he repeats that, but I do think it's going to be another good season.
6:18I think he's a value where he's being drafted.
6:21Yeah, but if he doesn't repeat the 13 touchdowns, so be it.
6:25But we're talking about a guy, to Fitzy's point, had 1,100 receiving yards.
6:29What if he sees a career-high in targets? What if we see Jaden Daniels taking a first step and he's a 1,300-yard
6:36receiver instead of being in that 1,100,000-yard mark year after year?
6:39What if he takes another leap where the volume gets him to that 1,300 mark?
6:44Then, OK, fine. He doesn't need the 13 touchdowns.
6:47Then, cool. We're sniffing 8 to 10 touchdowns? All right.
6:50So be it. Yeah, I haven't drafted him once this season, but I think maybe now you guys are starting to talk me down that direction.
6:58And Fitz, I want to bring up a player next who I feel like we are contractably obligated to talk about him at Fantasy Pros right now.
7:07You're either all the way in or all the way out.
7:10So tell me why you're in on this particular running back.
7:14Yeah, we're going to talk about Bucky Irving, Seth.
7:16And I think I'm the only one anywhere in the fantasy community, it seems like, at least among the analyst community who's all the way in.
7:25And I hope you're going to throw it to Debro for a possible rebuttal after I'm done because I'm going to start
7:32with a premise I think Debro and I might disagree on philosophically.
7:35And I think efficiency stats and a lot of the advanced metrics for running backs are kind of noisy and don't do
7:42a great job of illustrating true talent level. So, like, take yards after contact, for instance.
7:48What is the nature of the contact? Is it a linebacker squaring up a running back in the hole and somehow the running back manages to bounce off?
7:56Like, that would be impressive. Or is it a cornerback just barely getting a piece of a running back as he's hitting a hole at full speed?
8:05And if that run goes for 60 yards, does the running back get credit for 50 or 55 yards after contact?
8:12Like, I heard a fantasy analyst I greatly respect citing Bucky Irving's rushing yards over expected from 2025 as one of the reasons to fade him in 2026.
8:20Bucky was dead last in rushing yards over expected per carry last year among all running backs with at least 100 carries.
8:27That does seem pretty damning. But in 2024, Bucky was sixth in rushing yards over expected per carry.
8:33Now, the Buccaneers offensive line was a well-oiled machine in Bucky's rookie year.
8:37They ranked second in the run blocking metric adjusted line yards.
8:41Last year, the offensive line totally shredded by injuries.
8:44Bucs ranked 22nd in adjusted line yards. I know the intent of rushing yards over expected is to filter out everything but
8:51the ability of a running back to make yardage on his own.
8:54But are we really to believe that the quality of blocking had nothing to do with Bucky acing the rushing yards over
9:01expected per carry metric in 2024 and completely bombing it in 2025?
9:05And also, did I miss some sort of offseason memo that Kenny Gainwell is spectacular?
9:10Like, I don't think I was CC'd on that one.
9:13Like, maybe it's because I used my full name and my email address.
9:17I can loop you into the email thread. Yeah.
9:20Fitzmorris is hard to spell. Is it M-O-R-R-I-S or M-A-U-R-I-C-E?
9:23Eh, the heck with it. I'll just leave him off this email.
9:27So I did miss that memo. So Gainwell averaged 6.7 carries a game for the Steelers last year, and that was a career high.
9:35But Gainwell is a great receiving back, right? Well, Bucky Irving has averaged 1.56 yards per outrun for his NFL career.
9:41Gainwell, 1.19. Bucky had 47 catches as a rookie, even though he was used pretty sparingly early in the season.
9:48Here's an offseason quote from new Bucs, OC Zach Robinson.
9:51Hat tip to Greg from the CoachSpeak Index for this one.
9:54This was when someone brought up Bijan Robinson, who Zach Robinson coached in Atlanta, as part of a question about Bucky.
10:01And Zach Robinson said, I see Bucky in a very similar light with what he can do in the passing game, and
10:08there's not a run concept that he can't run.
10:11So I'm excited to work with Bucky and know that there's a ton of meat on the bone in the passing game.
10:18That's encouraging. I mean, it's fair to worry that Bucky isn't going to get the goal line carries.
10:23That's probably Sean Tucker's domain. Sure. So Bucky's TD ceiling might be a little cap.
10:28That's fine. But he's now getting drafted as a low-end RB2.
10:32And the idea that he's going to be a committee back because of Kenny Gainwell?
10:36I mean, Bucky had a rough 2025 season with injuries of his own, in addition to all those O-line injuries.
10:43He still averaged 20.3 touches per game, and that was with Rashad White playing all 17 games for the Buccaneers.
10:49I think fading Bucky off a disappointing year is a mistake.
10:53I'm still very much in on him. Okay. Okay.
10:55And those are great points. And Kenny Gainwell definitely, I think, surprised the entire fantasy community.
11:00But he certainly was a league winner down the stretch.
11:04My biggest issue, Derek, is I just worry that maybe the efficiency doesn't improve, right?
11:08Because the thing about it is, like, he only faced 3.5% of carries with a stacked front, right?
11:14That's the 48th highest among running backs. I think without Mike Evans in the picture, maybe defenses respect the offense going over the top a little bit less.
11:23And maybe we get more stacked carry fronts. And if you could only do that with, you know, 3.5% of stacked carry
11:30fronts, I worry that that 3.4 yards per carry or that .67 fancy points per opportunity, 60-second best, just does not improve, Derek.
11:37Yeah, I mean, it's a laundry list of concerns with Bucky.
11:41Like, I see the upside case and diving through all of Patty's, like, sage points here is that I think the offensive
11:48line did play a massive part in Bucky Irving's 2025 season because they were a shovel of their former selves 22nd in yards before contact per attempt.
11:56So that definitely is a big, big issue. I think that bounces back.
12:00My questions about Bucky, and I don't do this with all the backs and stuff like that because we've gone to an
12:07NFL where that 200-pound, 210 kind of threshold isn't a detriment to volume and lead back and all that kind of stuff like it used to be.
12:16My worry about Bucky is, at this point, can he stay healthy?
12:20Like, last year, foot sprain, shoulder, AC, joint stuff, you rewind to 2024, he had hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues.
12:26And the way that the toe was always talked about is, oh, he's dealt with that for all of college and stuff,
12:33so maybe that's kind of like a problem for his entire career, just kind of like rewinding to all of that.
12:40So, like, I worry if the size and the volume is the worry, like, with Bucky staying healthy because we have seen
12:47a pretty banged-up version over two seasons now of Bucky Irving.
12:50Now, you know, rookie season, he overcame that, he was stellar, he was freaking awesome.
12:55The other, I guess, kind of pushback, and again, like, this is Zach Robinson.
13:00He knows the guys of, like, what he wants to do and all that kind of stuff better than I do.
13:06But part of the numbers, if Zach Robinson is going to be so heavily invested in outside zone like he was in
13:13Atlanta, which could have been, like, a Michael Penix thing and we could talk about pistol and all that kind of stuff.
13:20Maybe that's different. But Bucky Irving, even in the massive 2024 season, his splits between zone and man-gap concepts were astronomical.
13:27Like, on zone concepts, 3.6 yards per carry. On man-gap, 6.5.
13:30Success rate, 48.2% versus 57.9%. So, those splits notwithstanding, it's just, it's the totality of, like, all the small things with Bucky
13:37Irving that I'm kind of worried about. And the other thing about it is, like, you don't bring Kenny Gainwell in, like,
13:44on the contract to just not use him. I think he's going to play a role in this backfield.
13:50And even if that is just the Rashad White role of last year and the year before.
13:56Okay, well, Rashad White was really freaking good in fantasy when he was in the committee with Bucky Irving.
14:02What if he is better Rashad White? What does that mean for Bucky Irving?
14:06Like, if he takes the Rashad White role and he's better than Rashad White, then is he going to eat into more of Bucky Irving's volume?
14:14Because, again, we're discussing Gainwell. Like, yeah, for the totality of their careers, yeah, Bucky Irving on a per-route basis has been better than Gainwell.
14:22But I'm also not going to shy away from Gainwell, who had 2.10 yards per-route run last year, and he was 14th
14:29in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate. So, like, he was really freaking good across a lot of metrics.
14:35So, it's like, if Bucky Irving, say he does bounce back.
14:39But what if Kenneth Gainwell can be an elevated version of Rashad White, like, offered this offense in previous seasons?
14:45If that's the case, then I think Bucky's going to take a hit.
14:49It's just a question of how much. He averaged 6.7 carries a game last year.
14:54That's all I'm going to say. Like, well, if he's getting six targets a game, I don't freaking care if we're playing PPR, man.
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16:39Healthcare just got less painful. We'll keep it moving, but just wanted to ask a couple temperature checks for both of you guys on Bucky.
16:47Would you go Javante or Bucky? Oh, it's Javante.
16:50Easy. It's got to be Javante, I think, just because of the automatic volume.
16:55Yeah. Scadaboo? Scadaboo over Bucky. That's close for me.
16:57It's close. Okay, last one. Quinshon Judkins. Bucky. Easily.
17:00I'll take Bucky. I've got an interesting one because I don't feel like everybody's pricing in the downside of Travis H.
17:07And like Alvin Kamara is still there. He's going to play passing downs.
17:11Mike, what are we missing? Why? Why? I'll take H.
17:14And ETN, whatever you want to call him. What about you, Pat?
17:18I lean Bucky. Okay. All right. So good conversation there.
17:21We talked a little bit about Mike Evans and what the difference in him no longer being in Tampa Bay might do for Bucky Irving.
17:29Debro, you think maybe his presence out there on the West Coast could help one of his running mates?
17:35So if I just take the name away and I tell you amongst 109 qualifying wide receivers last year, this wide receiver, this is where he ranked.
17:4423rd in yards per route run. 3rd in route win rate.
17:478th in separation score. 24th in 24th in 24th.
17:50He was 20th in yards per route run versus man coverage.
17:536th in route win rate versus man coverage. And he was also top 3 in separation and route win rate versus zone coverage.
18:01So every single metric that we should care about, he was either top 24 or he was elite at.
18:07And then people want to say, yeah, but I'm really not into Ricky Pierce all this year.
18:12Okay. Somebody needs to make me a really good case for it because the talent is there.
18:18If he could stay healthy, if he doesn't get freaking shot, then I think he has his breakout season this year.
18:24And Dejan Stripling, like, no, I'm not worried about him.
18:27Kyle Shanahan has historically, what has Kyle Shanahan done to rookies historically?
18:31Has he really invested them or has he shoved them in the doghouse and they got to earn their way up the depth chart?
18:39Okay. Everybody knows the answer to that. Christian Kirk couldn't even earn targets in Houston last year.
18:44And we don't even know what version. Can he stay on the field right now?
18:49And then we go back to the Mike Evans conversation.
18:52I'm in on Mike Evans as well this year.
18:55But can Mike Evans stay on the field? And if he doesn't, if he misses any time, there's contingent upside for Ricky Pierce all.
19:03But yet Ricky Pierce all, everybody's kind of out on him.
19:06Oh, and by the way, when he was on the field last year in four of the nine games that he did
19:13play while dealing with a PCL sprain, he was a top 24 wide receiver and weekly scoring.
19:18But yeah, let's not worry about Ricky Pierce all, you know, let's not invest in him.
19:23Everybody's gotten burned too much. And I think that that is the source of where people were getting value on Ricky Pierce
19:30all as people have been like, I was in, I was in.
19:34I can't be in again, right? Guilty. Okay. Well, why?
19:37Fitz, are you in at wide receiver 44, 102 overall?
19:41Because I'm like Derek, I've kind of been the guy for two years now pounding the table for this guy.
19:47And we just haven't seen it, whether it's injuries, whether it's the gunshot, one thing or another has led this guy to not being a fancy difference maker.
19:56Is 2026 the year? I think it will be.
19:59Just has to stay healthy. The shooting in his rookie year, the PCL injury last year, like this, this guy's an ultra athletic former first round pick.
20:07And we have seen the flashes, 14 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns in the 49ers last two regular season games his rookie year.
20:15Last year, over 100 yards, two of his first three games, then the PCL injury.
20:20Kind of slow once he got back. But then end of the season flashes again, 11 catches, 181 yards in the last two regular season games he played.
20:29So I know Mike Evans is expected to be the target leader there.
20:33But, you know, Evans has had trouble staying healthy himself recently.
20:36So I do think there are going to be chances for Pierce.
20:40So I think he's a good player. And I'm very much in this year.
20:45I also want to throw out there, there were two 49ers inside the top 10 red zone targets in the NFL.
20:51One of those guys isn't there anymore, Juwan Jennings.
20:54Mike Evans is going to get his. Who else is taking the other spot?
20:58We know. Yeah. We know like it's probably not going to be George Kittle to start the year.
21:04And even if it is, he's going to be coming back slow.
21:08So definitely missing potentially one of their red zone targets right off the rip there that maybe creates some opportunity for Ricky Pearsall.
21:15Before we keep it moving, we've got two giveaways for you.
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21:45prize if you are that lucky winner. And let's go ahead.
21:49Speaking of giveaways fits. Leagues are pretty much giving away your next favorite bounce back candidate for absolutely free.
21:55Xavier Worthy, ECR and ADP of wide receiver 49.
21:58Crazy. And Worthy was a first-round pick in 2024, a blazing fast receiver with a 4.21 40 time chosen to play with Patrick Mahomes.
22:05And Worthy had a really nice run as a rookie after Rasheed Rice tore up his knee from week 11 through the Super Bowl.
22:13That's a 10-game stretch. And I'm leaving out week 18 when all the Chiefs starters sat.
22:18Worthy averaged 5.8 catches, 67.9 receiving yards a game with six touchdowns over those 10 games.
22:23So that's basically a 17-game pace of about 1,150 yards and 10 touchdowns.
22:27And last season, opening game against the Chargers for the Chiefs.
22:31Worthy runs a crossing route very early in that game.
22:34Collides with Travis Kelsey. Dislocates the shoulder. Only missed a couple of games, but it seemed like he wasn't himself after he came back.
22:41And I think Andy Reid has even said that the injury kept him from using Xavier Worthy in some of the ways
22:48he would have liked to once Worthy was back.
22:51So no question Rice should be the Chiefs' projected target leader, although we'll see whether Rice manages to play a full 17
22:58games since he's played 12 the last two seasons.
23:01Travis Kelsey is going to get his share of targets too.
23:05But the Chiefs didn't make any major additions at wide receiver otherwise.
23:08And with Worthy's big playability, he doesn't need to catch 80 balls to be a useful fantasy starter.
23:14So I'm kind of back in. I think he's a good value this year.
23:18Yeah, I completely agree with you. He's someone really since early best balls I've been targeting, Derek, because even though it was
23:25a disappointing season, like yards per game, catch rate, yards per target, all very similar to that 2024 run where Fitz mentioned it.
23:33After Rasheed Rice went down, he was arguably a league winner, at least a league difference maker.
23:38I just think they didn't know how to play him last year.
23:42Maybe one more year, a new play caller with Eric B coming back in town changes things.
23:47Maybe, man. I don't know. I was out on Worthy last year.
23:51I'm out on him again this year. Really? Yeah.
23:54The fact that what's concerning about Worthy for me is his separation scores haven't been amazing.
23:59He's got win rates of 9.2% and 10.3% over the last two years.
24:03I know injuries in the shoulder and some other things have kind of hurt that.
24:08But I struggle to see if Rasheed Rice is out there, Travis Kelsey is out there.
24:13Tyquan Thornton was their deep ball guy. What is the role that Worthy plays in the Chiefs offense this year?
24:19He doesn't have the size to be the high volume underneath route.
24:23Say if Rasheed Rice even misses time there. It's like when he had that stretch of games in 2024, it was because
24:30they kind of shoved him into the Rasheed Rice role.
24:33Right. But then it's like, do we really want that for a player of his size?
24:38I mean, we just talked about it. Like, he got rocked and hurt his shoulder and was never the same.
24:45It's like that high volume role in the underneath over the middle in the yak role.
24:50Like, do we really want him in that role?
24:53Like, is he going to stay healthy in a role like that?
24:56Well, no clue. Yeah. So if Rice is out there, he's not playing that role because that's what Rasheed Rice does.
25:03Well, Tyquan Thornton was the deep threat and he's back.
25:06So I'm like, I just struggle to see. I can understand.
25:10What is the role that we were high on for Xavier Worthy?
25:13It's like, well, he's not playing the deep role.
25:16He's not playing the underneath role. He's not beating man coverage.
25:20That's where I struggled. Like, what is the role where he becomes like a 20% target share guy?
25:25I just struggle to see it, I guess. And Eric Biennemi, we trust at least what Fitz and I think there.
25:32Derek, you won't quite be in Pennsylvania next week, but that isn't stopping you from potentially pandering to some Eagles fans with
25:39your next favorite draft steal, who certainly disappointed in 2025.
25:42Yeah, he disappointed. I mean, versus expectations, ADP, it's Jalen Hurts, man.
25:46He's QB7 and basically like all ADP that you'll look at right now.
25:50And I think we're just getting a buying opportunity.
25:53Like the entire consensus is all about like, Jalen Hurts is going into a new offense.
25:58We don't know if he's going to adjust to it.
26:01Mm-hmm. So how many times has Hurts defied expectations?
26:04Like we go back to his collegiate career. He improved as a pastor every single year in college.
26:10I could pull up any amount of numbers that show this and display this.
26:14He gets the run as a rookie and then he goes into his second season as a starter and everybody's like, man,
26:21we just don't know if this guy can even throw the dang ball.
26:25We don't even know if he's going to be the answer for the Philadelphia Eagles short and long term.
26:31Oh, wait, he goes out and he crushes. He gets the massive contract, continues to crush.
26:36He goes to a Super Bowl, plays lights out, they lose.
26:40He goes to another Super Bowl, plays lights out, and he gets the damn MVP.
26:45And then at this point of multiple years of bad offensive coordinator like Brian Johnson, there's a reason you don't see him
26:52as an OC right now in the NFL. Kevin Petulo, there's a reason you don't see him as an OC in the NFL.
26:59I know he's a past game coordinator, but he's not calling plays for any freaking team.
27:04There are reasons for that. Because they both ran like bastardized versions of Shane Steikin's offense previously, and they kept just kind
27:11of running back the wheel because of like, oh, well, Hurts likes this and we got the guys to do it, so why not?
27:19And they lived off of explicit plays. What if yet again, Jalen Hurts takes another step in his career?
27:25Because he can't access the middle of the field.
27:27He's not like T-Tiny Peewee size like Kyler Murray, and he can't actually see the middle of the field.
27:33Now they have players that like, Makai Lemon could hit the ground running.
27:38Eli Stowers is going to be a chess piece for them.
27:41Dallas Goddard is back. Like everybody in the market is playing like, Jalen Hurts cannot bounce back.
27:46What if all the risk? But here's the thing.
27:49What if it hits? What if we see like, and I'm not going to put Sean Mannion in the same type of
27:56air and tier and area code as like, a Liam Cohen because we just don't know, but you don't see that type of trepidation.
28:04Like everybody's so worried about what Sean Mannion and Jalen Hurts are going to do together.
28:09Do we see that type of like hesitation and worry with the market with Declan Doyle and Lamar Jackson?
28:15Oh no, because he's coming from Ben Johnson and da, da, da, da.
28:19We're not going to sit in general. Lamar Jackson is freaking QB too.
28:23Although he's coming off. One of the worst stretches of his entire career where he didn't even produce as a QB one
28:30in fantasy over multiple, multiple, multiple weeks. But it's like, oh, but we're so worried about Jalen Hurts, but we have no questions about Lamar Jackson.
28:38That's where it's like, fine. I'll buy the dip on Jalen Hurts all freaking day.
28:43The rushing bounces back and we see the best quarterback play out of Jalen Hurts in a brand new offense that is
28:50better for this version of the NFL. Okay. Yeah, I'm in.
28:54Fitz, I've been trying to not draft any quarterbacks early, but Jalen Hurts continues to fall to me in my draft.
29:00So I have a lot of exposure to him right now.
29:04That being said, though, maybe things are a little clunky to be in the season with the new offensive coordinator.
29:10Overall, though, I am in here at 60 overall in the ECR QB six.
29:14What about yourself? The last few years, we've seen people really aggressively draft Hurts.
29:19Yeah, I'm not really in favor of aggressively drafting Hurts.
29:22But if he is falling and you are going to get a discount, which we do see sometimes this year in drafts, I'm okay with that.
29:30I mean, he's just got to get the rushing numbers back up after being over 600 rushing yards the previous two seasons and last year down at 421.
29:39A run of double digit rushing touchdowns. Then last year, he's at eight.
29:43So that kind of torpedoed it a little because the passing numbers weren't special.
29:48And I don't think we're ever going to get special passing numbers out of Jalen Hurts.
29:53He's just not that guy. Competent passer. But I don't think they want him to be a high volume passer.
29:59He's just not going to run a Dak Prescott type of show in Philadelphia.
30:04So I'm okay with that. And, you know, hopefully more tush pushes if you draft Jalen Hurts and fewer Dallas Goddard shovel passes near the goal line.
30:12Because Goddard had six of those six times he scored on shovel passes inside at the five yard line or closer last year.
30:19That kind of replaced the tush push in some ways.
30:23Yeah. And Fitz, round us out here. You often, I feel like, late night at the Expo at George's when the bar gets a little smoky.
30:31I see you over in the corner just like absolutely going to bat for a different tight end every single year.
30:37You find yourselves in these types of conversations. So who's the big man you're going to battle for this season?
30:44Well, I mean, I want Brock Bowers or Colston Loveland.
30:47But if I punt tight end, which there's a chance I might, it's going to be Mark Andrews.
30:53And there is a chance Mark Andrews is cooked.
30:56We should probably acknowledge that. His numbers last year are bad.
30:5948 catches, 422 yards, five touchdowns, 8.8 yards per catch, 6.0 yards per target, 1.23 yards per outrun.
31:05Some really rough numbers. But we know the Ravens passing game had a lot of problems last year with Lamar Jackson missing
31:12time and not being fully healthy for a lot of the games he played.
31:16Ravens still don't look great at wide receiver after Zay Flowers.
31:20They still have Rashad Bateman. They drafted Elijah Surratt and Jacoby Lane.
31:23None of those guys are really expected to be prominent target earners.
31:27Now, we don't know exactly what the Ravens offense is going to look like with Declan Doyle as the new play caller.
31:34But in Lamar Jackson, seven full seasons as the starter.
31:37Here's where the Ravens tight ends have ranked in percentage of team targets.
31:41First, fifth, first, first, tenth, fourth, and fourth. And now Isaiah likely is gone.
31:46Again, this is going to get the lion's share of those tight end targets.
31:50The Ravens signed Durham Smythe. He's a blocker. They drafted Matthew Hibner.
31:54He's intriguing, but his college stats at SMU weren't all that exciting.
31:58I mean, Andrews' ADP is tight end 14. I think he's the best punt option at tight end.
32:04And if it turns out he's washed, you just cut him early in the season, pick up a hot tight end on waivers.
32:11But if Andrews isn't washed, he might have sneaky mid-range tight end one upside given the track record he has in the
32:18tight end production we've seen in Baltimore during the Lamar Jackson era.
32:22Hard to argue with that, Derek. It is, man.
32:25And I wrote up Mark Andrews in my Perfect Draft article, and I'm with Fitzy on that.
32:30You're not paying for the downside of Mark Andrews where he's going in drafts.
32:34What you're getting is just a free swing at upside.
32:38Like he had been previously, yeah. Yeah. And it's like, if he is over the age curve and all this stuff has caught up to him, then fine.
32:46But you're not paying for any of that. Like, and the thing that Fitzy kind of brings up too is that like, look, Isaiah likely is gone.
32:55Like, I just want to see Mark Andrews the full-time player again.
32:59He was 22nd in route share last year. Like he only had a route on 62.9% of dropbacks.
33:04Right. Like that number of like, we have to like believe like that number comes up this year.
33:10It's just a question of how much. But if he gets back into that like 80% range, again, we always talk about
33:17volume is king and people like, well, volume and targets and stuff like that.
33:22But routes too, like Trey McBride, another reason like why he just crushed and decimated everybody is because the dude ran 160
33:29more routes than everybody else amongst tight ends last year.
33:32So if Andrews gets back to being a full-time player, then I think he definitely can.
33:37And if you look at the deeper metrics with Andrews, so I was pulling this up as Patty was talking amongst 40
33:44qualifying tight ends, Andrews 11th in separation score, 6th in route win rate.
33:48Those paint the pretty nice picture that Mark Andrews is not really dust.
33:52Wow. You got to love it. The old veterans hanging on just like us folks.
33:57And that's going to do it for us right here on this episode of the fancy pros, fancy football podcast.
34:03Let us know down below in the comments, your favorite bounce back candidates that you're drafting at a discount this year.
34:10And also be sure, give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it.
34:14And don't forget if you're new to download the new fancy pros, my playbook app.
34:19It's improving every single year. Subscribe to the channel if you haven't already.
34:23For Pat Fitzmaurice and downtown Derek Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock.
34:26Thanks so much for watching. Take care, y'all. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast.
34:32If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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34:47Hi, it's Colin Cowherd from the Colin Cowherd podcast.
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