AFC East 2026: Every Team's Ceiling, Floor & Breakout Player (Ep. 2043)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 3 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 4, 2026
Published
Thu, June 4, 2026
19
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Geno SmithA.J. BrownBrock BowersD.J. MooreMalik WillisAaron DonaldDrake MayeGreg DulcichJaylen WaddleJosh AllenTyreek Hill
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveUsage0:11
A.J. Brown's ability to draw attention from defenses will likely lead to more two-high safety looks, which should enhance the run game for the Patriots.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:11
A.J. Brown's addition is expected to improve the Patriots' red zone efficiency, which has been a concern for the team.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup0:12
Despite the addition of A.J. Brown, the Patriots may still face challenges in the win-loss column due to a tougher schedule.
Insight pageAaron Donald
PositiveRole0:40
Aaron Donald's potential return to the Rams could create a formidable defensive line alongside Miles Garrett, enhancing their defensive capabilities.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveInjury0:26
Brock Bowers struggled with injuries last season, which impacted Geno Smith's performance.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup0:59
Brock Bowers is expected to have a significant impact against the Dolphins' weak secondary, making him a player to watch in their matchup.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveProjection0:08
Predictions for DJ Moore's season with Josh Allen suggest he could achieve around 75 catches and 1,108 yards, potentially exceeding his previous performance.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:26
DJ Moore's addition to the Bills is expected to enhance the offense, as he is familiar with Joe Brady's system from their time in Carolina.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveRole0:09
Drake Maye is expected to benefit significantly from A.J. Brown's presence, as it opens up opportunities for both deep and underneath routes in the Patriots' offense.
Insight pageGeno Smith
NegativeBust0:38
There are concerns about Geno Smith's ability to perform, with the suggestion that he is washed and not a viable fantasy option.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:39
Geno Smith is not expected to start more than half the games for the Jets this season, as Kate Klubnik is likely to take over due to performance or injury.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:41
Geno Smith led the AFC in interceptions last year, raising doubts about his ability to improve this season.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:53
Geno Smith is still the quarterback for the Jets, and while there are concerns about his performance, he was in a difficult situation last year.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
PositiveRole0:57
If Chris Bell performs well, it could elevate the entire offense, including Greg Dulcich, who may become a valuable asset.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeDepth Chart0:49
Jalen Waddle has also been traded, further depleting the Dolphins' receiving options.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection0:21
Josh Allen is viewed as a perennial MVP candidate, and if he plays all 17 games, the Bills will be in playoff contention.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveRole0:49
Malik Willis is now the starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins, but his performance will determine if they pursue another quarterback in the draft.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:56
Malik Willis has shown promise in his limited sample size, suggesting he could be effective in the right circumstances.
Insight pageTyreek Hill
NegativeDepth Chart0:49
Tyreek Hill has been traded away from the Dolphins, leaving a significant gap in their wide receiver corps.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome in everybody, parking right here for the tailgate.
0:04It's me, Joey B, Joe P, to be with me, two of my best friends, Scott Bogman and Andrew Erickson, Mr.
0:10Big Pod Energy. We are continuing our preview series, getting all hyped up for NFL football.
0:15This is the tailgate too, it's not fantasy pros, not betting pros, no, no, no, it's just hanging out with your bros
0:21who also work for the bros and all that stuff.
0:24And shout out to everybody who just helped us get to our first thousand subscribers on the new channel.
0:29Clap it up, baby! Woo! That's good times! I love it!
0:32And I love all the positivity. Everybody's really enjoying the channel, because it's loose, it's different, it's no agenda, it's just us talking ball.
0:39So again, keep those subscriptions coming. We love to hear from you.
0:42And it was a very busy day in the NFL a couple days ago on June 1st, as we anticipated.
0:48So we bumped today's preview from last week to this week.
0:51So if you see things out of order, well, that's why.
0:54Because we thought at some point, maybe things would change a little bit and we'd have something to talk about the AFC East.
1:00And we do. If you missed those videos, well, you're lucky.
1:03If you go click on that live section of YouTube, you could see the AJ Brown video that we did, Erickson and I.
1:10The big Miles Garrett, Jared Verse video that we did, Erickson and I.
1:13But Scott Bogman, you weren't here for any of those conversations.
1:16So I wanted to get your take on some of this stuff there.
1:20Give me the winners, the losers. Jake Seeley said everybody won, which I told him, you're such a politician.
1:25You're right. But still, I hated that response. So Boggs, walk us through your takes on the deal between the Browns and
1:31the Rams, which was, you know, size making huge and obviously good long term for the Browns and Rams, obviously really good for now.
1:38And tell me about AJ Brown, too. What do you think?
1:41I mean, Jake is kind of right. Honestly, when you encourage him, that's the worst.
1:45Well, listen, first thing I'm never going to encourage shake.
1:48OK, so let's not get let's not get our signals crossed, not encouraging Jake at all.
1:53All right. But he is kind of correct in this.
1:55I think, you know, Miles Garrett going to the Rams, it's exactly what they needed.
2:00And it'll get people to quit bitching about taking Ty Simpson at 13 overall.
2:03You know, you get a big weapon for this year.
2:06That helps a lot. And then all the Aaron Donald excitement of maybe him coming back, you get that piled on top is kind of crazy.
2:14And then if you're the Browns. You know, I feel like Miles Garrett in Cleveland is the epitome of the meme of the Ferrari in the trailer park.
2:21Right. Of just why do we have miles? What is he doing for us?
2:25Did you see that on the Internet? Somebody like because I've seen that meme attached to Miles Garrett before.
2:31Or did you see somebody just had the empty car park on the outdoor?
2:34That was really funny. And it took me a second.
2:37I was like, why are they posting that? They went just at Cleveland.
2:41No, it didn't even say that. It said something about the Browns front yard.
2:45I think it said or something like that. They go get they get Jared first and multiple picks.
2:50I think that's a fair deal. It's a really good deal for Cleveland.
2:53He's from Dayton, so he might sign an extension.
2:56We'll see what goes on with him. And then A.J.
2:59Brown. I mean, the Patriots win that deal, obviously.
3:01Right. You get the one of the better wide receivers in the NFL.
3:05But I'll say this. Howie Roseman for what he traded a first and a third to get A.J.
3:10Brown. He traded one up trading A.J. Brown after four years for our first and a fifth.
3:15So you basically got the prime four years of A.J.
3:17Brown for a third and a fifth pick swap in a Super Bowl and a couple of Super Bowl appearances in a ring.
3:24That's an incredible value for Howie. I mean, so I do see the positive from every single side of both of these trades.
3:30I think there is positive to be taken out of all of them.
3:34So in that, our guy Jake Seeley is right as much as it pains me to inflate his ego even more.
3:40Erickson, have you seen the workout videos of Aaron Donald this week?
3:43Because apparently he's so excited about Miles Garrett that he is, quote, flirting, end quote, with the idea of coming back.
3:49Do you think he's serious about it or is he just having a good time here on the Internet?
3:54I think that maybe he's getting caught up in the moment just to think about what it would be like on that
4:00defensive line that is just fully stacked with Miles Garrett.
4:03Look, man, you don't want to temper the expectations of what this could potentially be.
4:07And it's like, you know, I don't want to say no to Aaron Donald.
4:11I would never say no to Aaron Donald on any circumstance about anything.
4:15I think that's just a good pattern. Yes, you were in front of me in line, sir.
4:20Go ahead. Yes, sir. Yeah, absolutely. You are correct, sir.
4:22This was this was definitely not my order here.
4:25This was your order. You can have this, sir.
4:27But look, dinosaurs are fake. I'm sorry, the Earth is definitely flat.
4:31But let's talk about it because he only retired, Andrew, in 2024.
4:34Like, it's not like he's been retired that long.
4:37I was like, oh, it's like it's not like Philip Rivers come out of retirement.
4:41And he probably saw Philip Rivers last year and he went, well, hell, I'm in better shape than that guy.
4:46I mean, hell, I'm in better shape than that guy.
4:49That is a good point. He comes in for the first meeting and they just put on the Philip Rivers Seahawks game
4:55when the Colts almost beat the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in his first start after missing.
5:00What was it? Five seasons of the NFL action.
5:02Five years. Look, if it happens, I'm here for it.
5:05I'm not going to be like, no, this is lame.
5:08No, this would be a lot of fun. Just get more superstars on the field at the same time.
5:13Los Angeles Rams. How crazy would it be? First game of the year in Australia.
5:18Aaron Donald's out there with my Garrett. That's crazy to think of Aaron Donald and Miles Garrett on the same line in Australia.
5:24Seems like we are definitely in a B universe somewhere.
5:27I don't understand. I want it to happen. I'll be honest with you.
5:30Like, I to Erickson's point, it's L.A. Who's going to lead the league in 13 personnel?
5:35It's going to be the Rams and whoever plays the Rams if they have Miles Garrett and Aaron Donald on that line.
5:41Well, that's the whole point is like, I think Aaron Donald might not play every play.
5:45Obviously, you know, he's an older guy at this stage.
5:48He's not old, but he's always been a freak in terms of his athleticism.
5:52Who do you double? I heard a story actually today.
5:55I was listening to NFL radio on the way home from the gym.
5:58And the guy was talking about the first time that he saw Aaron Donald in college.
6:03He was running with the wide receiver group. Now, normally when you're a defensive lineman, you don't do that.
6:08You're running. You're getting your running in and you're running your 40s and stuff like that with, you know, the other linebackers and guys like that.
6:15He was running with the wide receivers in the corners.
6:18And he's like, oh, that guy is a little different than everybody else.
6:22And he's always been that he's always been a physical freak.
6:25And I know he's kept himself in good shape.
6:27We all know that. And he's got here. Look, he's got a couple months.
6:31He's got two plus months, basically, to get into that kind of shape if he wants to to play.
6:37Like in shape is one thing. Football shapes another.
6:39I think Aaron Donald could do it. And I'm here for it.
6:43I'd like to see it, you guys. Well, I think I think, too, what else could play a factor is maybe it's not OK.
6:49Week one, he's out there, but a couple of guys get hurt on the Rams.
6:53OK, we had a lot of defensive line. OK, now we have some injuries.
6:57You know, now we definitely not coming back for camp.
7:00I know. Yeah, he's not going to do that stuff.
7:03And at 35 years old again, as someone that's 32 years old, I can barely.
7:07I can't actually make it through a workout anymore.
7:10So but I wouldn't close the book on Aaron Donnelly, even if it's not week one later into the season.
7:15If the Rams need somebody, hey, want to have a fun playoff run?
7:19I mean, didn't I? What was that? The Chargers player, Eric Eric Weddle, wasn't he?
7:23He came back randomly like one year when he missed the entire season.
7:27He was like the last four games. Yeah. And he was just like, OK, we need we need a body in the secondary.
7:33And they just signed him after he missed the entire he didn't play the entire regular season.
7:38I remember that, too. That was wild. Yeah, look, I'm here for it.
7:41I want it to happen. I'd love to see it happen.
7:44So, you know, it was a crazy day. Like, I don't think we've ever seen two guys of that magnitude, two potential
7:51Hall of Famers get traded on the same day in June.
7:54I mean, that was just kind of bizarre. And I feel like it's kind of ignited the NFL talk in the NFL
8:00season, which is great for channels like this. And I know everybody here who's listening, if you're enjoying this conversation and clearly
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8:28That way you never miss an episode of the tailgate.
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8:34We've got a whole plan coming at you. We're working on it.
8:37Actually, tomorrow we've got a big meeting about it.
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8:44And we want everybody here to be a part of it because we believe in this channel.
8:49It's going to be a good time talking football.
8:52All right. More Patriots, everybody, because Andrew and I are here.
8:55We're sort of going to start. Yeah, because Andrew and I are still, you know, it's funny, Andrew.
9:00I was. It was exciting, but we were working and then like all the other stuff was going on.
9:05He really didn't hit me till yesterday. And then I saw him in the in the jersey and I saw him catching
9:11one handed passes from Drake May and I was like, oh, my God, it's all happening.
9:16So fast, like it happened and it was still theoretical to me.
9:19And then starting to see him there and seeing him, you know, talking to press conference and the little pictures of him
9:25as a little kid wearing the Tom Brady jersey.
9:28I was in my feelings. I'm not going to lie.
9:30I was very excited about A.J. Brown. So let's talk about here.
9:34Let's talk about the breakdown here about maybe how the calculus might change a little bit.
9:38I know a lot of us have been thinking, OK, Patriots take a step back and all that stuff.
9:43But now you've added a legitimate weapon, a deep threat.
9:46Drake May is so good. And A.J. Brown, I think I saw a stat today, actually, where he was tied for second
9:52since 2022 in terms of winning over a thousand yards on deep fade routes.
9:56I mean, that is like a match made in heaven between Drake Maye and A.J.
10:00Brown. Plus, it then opens up a lot of stuff underneath.
10:04You want to have Travion Henderson catching footballs running amok like A.J.
10:07Brown allows you to do a lot with this offense.
10:10And I have to imagine that Joshua Daniels is super excited.
10:13Drake May is super excited. And maybe we should pump the brakes a little bit on the whole, you know, Patriot regression
10:19irrelevance conversation has been happening here lately. I think that that makes sense to try to pump the brakes.
10:24But regression holds nobody. It holds everybody accountable. It comes for all men.
10:28That's what I mean. It doesn't matter what they were going to do, because when you look at all the statistics from
10:34Drake May last year, again, that was against the easiest schedule in NFL history.
10:38So so naturally that those numbers are just probably not going to be as good, even if you add dynamic talents like A.J.
10:44Brown, like Romeo Dobbs. So that's where I get concerned.
10:47I also have concerns about the defense, too, outside of Christian Gonzalez, who I think is an all pro superstar like Carlton
10:53Davis is the other starting corner, and he is the one of the most volatile cornerbacks.
10:58He looks like a stud in one game. And then the next game, he plays absolutely terrible and gets absolutely picked on and roasted.
11:04So if Gonzalez were to miss time, remember at the beginning of the season, the Patriots were kind of like to a shaky start.
11:11Gonzalez was dealing with a hamstring injury. So I think that the defense is a little bit top heavy with Gonzalez.
11:17So I think that they're not going to be as healthy as well.
11:20So going back to the A.J. Brown conversation, though, I think that it's to your point, match made in heaven.
11:26I think that he fits exactly what the Patriots need.
11:29The Patriots need someone that can beat man coverage.
11:31He was fourth in PFF man coverage grade last season.
11:34And what else he does to the offense besides.
11:37Gaining attention. Gaining attention. More too high safeties is what you're probably going to see from defenses against A.J.
11:42Brown because you have to protect him over the top.
11:45And I think that's going to open up the run game.
11:48Like, yeah, I do too. Besides the trade. I love Henderson and Stevenson here.
11:52But yeah, besides the Henderson, like big running plays, there weren't a lot of games, at least where the Patriots weren't blowing
11:58teams out against like the Jets and the Dolphins, where you had a steady, consistent run game.
12:03It was very boom or bust. Plus, they were one of the bottom teams in terms of rushing success rate last season.
12:09They have to improve in the red zone, which that's A.J.
12:12Brown. That's Romeo Dobbs. So they did their best that they could to mitigate the impending regression and the schedule and the injury luck.
12:18But unfortunately, I don't think it's going to necessarily reflect in the win loss column.
12:23Even if we look at the advanced metrics and think, oh, wow, this team is better than it was last year against a tougher schedule.
12:30But it's not going to make them necessarily win more games than they did last year, which I don't think they're going to come close to.
12:37So, Fox, I want to talk about the defense because you're Mr.
12:40Defense here. Zach Kerr is now officially the defensive coordinator.
12:43He took over last year because Terrell Williams right week one of the season was cancer diagnosis.
12:48And then he went and got treatment and Kurt took over the play calling.
12:52And it was obviously really good. Right. So that's not changing year over a year.
12:56But what are your thoughts on the way this defense looks from 2025 to 2026?
13:00I still think it's really good. Obviously, the secondary, you have three guys that were all in the top 21 of the corners.
13:06Right. Your safeties are great, too. Adding Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson had a great year.
13:11I think the thing that concerns me the most about the defense is getting pressure on the quarterback.
13:16Right. Harold Landry was a massive disappointment last year, and they kind of limped at this in the offseason.
13:21It was Draymond Jones, decent signing, more of a run stopper and Gabe Atkins out of Illinois.
13:26So I think that's my biggest concern on defense.
13:28Still very good. And you also have four auto wins, right?
13:31Two against the Jets, two against the Dolphins. So I think that is nice for the schedule.
13:36But the rest of the schedule is really tough.
13:39If you look at it just like overall, I think the Dolphins have the second hardest schedule and the Patriots have the sixth hardest schedule.
13:46So you got to play the AFC. Yeah. NFC North.
13:48You got to play this year. You got to play the division winners from last year, like Denver and Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
13:55So it just does make five primetime games to and the Seahawks open up.
13:58Yeah, Seahawks. But check out this to four of the five games at night.
14:02The primetime ones are on the road, too, which is a little also kind of a tough quirk there.
14:08I mean, I don't want to hear Patriots fans complain about.
14:11I don't complain about anything as a Patriot fan ever.
14:14OK, I'm also a loser. I'm a loser Mets fan.
14:16So I can complain all summer about everything. But once September hits, once we hit Labor Day, all my complaining stops all the time.
14:23OK, I'm a very lucky person. You got a finals to complain about.
14:27I know. I just I don't even care. I mean, I mean, I'm going to watch it because I can't lose either
14:33way because all my family and friends who are Knicks fans are so excited.
14:37But they're all so tense because it's been what, like 50 years since they've won or something like that.
14:42Fifty seven years. I was born. Before I was born.
14:45So before I was, it was 1973. I think it was.
14:48Right. And before I was born. Yeah. And I'm just like, I know if they lose, it's going to be entertaining.
14:54And if they win, it's going to be very entertaining.
14:56So either way, I'll be entertained. And that's what I want to be.
15:00I just want to be entertained here. All right.
15:03Let's take a look here at some of the numbers when it comes to the Patriots here.
15:07Super Bowl winner. Hard pass. Plus two thousands. Best odds.
15:10I don't want it. You guys don't want it either.
15:13I know that. I'm not even going to ask you.
15:16Conference winner plus eight 50. Intriguing. Intriguing. But pass for me, Erickson.
15:19Pass for you. I don't like any of the Patriots team futures.
15:22Those player futures. I like on this particular team.
15:25Okay. About a wide receiver that we. I don't mind the division.
15:28What's the division at show? Division is plus one 50.
15:31I would think it would actually. Numbers. I bet it was better two days ago.
15:35You're probably right about that. But that number is not good enough.
15:39I want two to one. If I'm going to put it.
15:42I agree. For a full season. I got to double up this money.
15:45To make the playoffs minus one 75. So everybody still thinks because of the, you know, the soft underbelly of this division
15:51that the Patriots will be all right. And look, they have a tough.
15:55It's a tougher schedule. We all know it's a tougher schedule.
15:58But we also know one thing that every year injuries happen.
16:01All of a sudden the teams that we think are going to be good aren't good anymore.
16:06Quarterback goes down. I mean, look at the Bengals last year.
16:09Look at the commanders, right? All of a sudden teams that we thought, oh, there's going to be competitive teams.
16:15They were not as competitive, you know? So the landscape changes in theory.
16:18I'm still think they're a playoff team. So I'm going to pass there, which brings us to the win total, which.
16:24Erickson, you want to guess what that is? It's a nine and a half.
16:28Nine and a half for the over ten and a half for the under.
16:32That's the best number. And both are heavily the best thing you could do.
16:36It's still juiced minus one thirty five on both.
16:38So it's kind of tough. Division winner looks like the best bet there.
16:42But again, I don't want to bet it. Would you go under nine and a half?
16:46I don't think I would. I understand ten and a half.
16:49No, under ten and a half is minus. Yeah, but that's not going to be good enough odds.
16:54I agree. You're going to play that play. You know what you do?
16:58Here's what you do. If you want to bet on the Patriots, you wait for the first couple weeks of the season to unfold.
17:05And I think some of these numbers might move because if they lose to the Seahawks and then they lose another game, they're not supposed to in September.
17:13Steelers. Yeah, I think a little bit. Well, let's not get crazy here.
17:16Let's not say things we can't take back. They lost the Steelers last year.
17:20It's when the Steelers will be their healthiest, too.
17:23Early in the game. Yeah, the league's oldest defense will be in prime condition.
17:26That is very true. You're not wrong, Bogman. But I'd say Nick Herbig will be out there earning 100 mil.
17:32So, yeah. Yes, he will. Yes, he will. All right.
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21:05All right, let's talk about the next group here, the Buffalo Bills, who I do think are the team to beat in this division here.
21:12I'm being realistic. Josh Allen is a perennial MVP candidate.
21:14The big transition was from Sean McDermott to Joe Brady.
21:17Joe Brady is in-house, so it's not the weirdest transition.
21:20It does feel like, you know, like, I don't know, like, somehow they got- Your drill sergeant is gone, and now the
21:26fun- Yeah, I was gonna say it's like- The fun hall monitors running this stuff.
21:30It was like a divorce, and now, like, your uncle's watching you or something like that.
21:35Like, I don't know. Like, it's still family, but it's weird.
21:38Like, dad's not there anymore, so I don't know how that's gonna play or how that's gonna be.
21:43You can swim in the deep end when I go for food.
21:46It's fine. I don't care. Yeah, I mean, it's okay.
21:49It's your fun uncle. Joe Brady's the fun uncle around these parts.
21:52They've also got a new stadium, too. And I always feel like when you have new stadiums sometimes, guys, like, there's that little extra juice that happens there.
22:00So, Erickson, talk to me about that transition, not only of location, but that transition of head coach, too, where it is
22:06a little weird, but it's not completely new. So, I do think it's a much easier transition.
22:11It's not like you're learning a whole new system.
22:14It's the same stuff we're doing, but maybe just with a different flavor.
22:17We're learning a new defense. I mean, they're going to be switching from their scheme, so I think that does matter pretty substantial.
22:24I think offensively, it's playing the hits. Offense is what I was alluded to.
22:27Yeah, and now we got DJ Moore. And we know that offense is more sticky year-to-year.
22:32And when you have Josh Allen, I mean, if he plays 17 games, they're gonna be in the conversation, basically, no matter what.
22:38And I don't need to know anything else about what the Bills do, defensively, offensively.
22:43If Josh Allen's out there, they're gonna be probably in the playoffs and fighting for the conference and the AFC.
22:48So, I think offensively, they're in a good spot.
22:51Defensively, though, I think it's gonna take some time for them to gel.
22:54Guys coming off injuries, Ed Oliver, he was a big missing piece last year because he just missed so many games with his injury.
23:01And the biggest thing with the Bills' defense over the last couple seasons, even under McDermott, was his defense can't stop the run.
23:07Like, what is going on? The team just continued to run all over them.
23:11So, does that change with Jim Leonard coming in from the Denver Broncos, who were really great against the run last year?
23:17I think that Thursday night, week two, they're gonna kick off and unveil their new stadium against the Detroit Lions.
23:23Like, that's a monster game in week two. So, their schedule's not great to open the year.
23:28It's tough. The first eight weeks of the season.
23:30So, I think that that's kind of... I guess Bradley Chubb, I think, is a big addition, too, on the defensive side of the football.
23:37But other than that, I think it's kind of like...
23:40It feels kind of status quo, but with a couple improvements here and there, and then obviously, Joe Brady as the new head coach.
23:47Is there a chance that the offense does take a step back because he is taking on more responsibilities?
23:52I tend to not really think about that because it's really more about the quarterback.
23:56And he's been in the system already for so many years.
23:59It's all the same types of pieces with DJ Moore as the addition.
24:03He already knows Joe Brady's offense. Like, he's worked at it in Carolina.
24:06So, for me, it's more question marks about defense, how long it takes for these guys to understand the new scheme.
24:12Yeah, Jim Leonard is a guy that I have a lot of respect for as a player.
24:17You know, he was a tough player. I always enjoyed him.
24:20It's gonna be interesting to see him in this role.
24:23So, Boggs, again, let's talk about a little defense here on this.
24:26Is Bradley Chubb enough to help with the deficits they had last year against the run?
24:31Well, I mean, I, by the way, can still hear Erickson screaming at us, start whoever is playing Buffalo running back.
24:37They can't stop the run. No, they can't. All year last year.
24:40I think they were 31st in stopping the run.
24:42It was fairly pathetic. Demoralizing. 27th in run D, according to PFF, 31st in tackle grade.
24:47They just cannot tackle at all. 20th in coverage.
24:49And ultimately, Boggs, that was the undoing of Sean McDermott.
24:52Yeah. Like, when you are the head coach, but you're the defensive-minded head coach, and the failure of your team is the
24:58discipline of you as the head coach, that's what gets you fired.
25:02And I feel like that's a no-brainer all the time.
25:04The thing I do feel like they did in the offseason was they spent a lot of time and draft picks and
25:11money on getting depth on defense, because that really was what it was.
25:14You know, I think the starters were okay, but you rotate guys out.
25:18You have no depth on this defense. Ed Oliver gets hurt.
25:21You run all over this team. You only played three games last year, like Erickson said.
25:25Daniel Walker was a rookie. I think he's going to be better.
25:29But, you know, Greg Russo is still one of the best edge rushers in the league.
25:33I think Bradley Chubb helps a lot on that other side.
25:36I think TJ Parker helps a lot on that other side.
25:39He still has bad tackling linebackers. I think Caleb Ellams or is probably going to start more games than not this year
25:45because, I mean, Dorian Williams and Terrell Bernard just cannot tackle.
25:48It was pathetic. I think that's a big reason why you're going to 3-4-2, just get a little more meat up front as well.
25:55So, more body on body. So, I think this defense will improve, but the schedule is also much tougher.
26:00I really love the addition to DJ Moore on the outside.
26:04He worked with Joe Brady in Carolina. Him and Josh Allen have already seemed to be buddy-buddy.
26:08They got their lockers next to each other. That's all working out really well.
26:12And Stefan Diggs had his best season of his career first year with Josh Allen.
26:16So, I don't know that TJ Moore is going to have the best year of his career, but I think he's going
26:22to have a much better year than 2025. Let's be honest.
26:26Yes, by a lot. By country mile. So, that's definitely true.
26:29So, I'm excited about this team and the schedule is still tough, but the division is still easy.
26:34Again, you should have four auto wins here. Two against Miami and two against the Jets.
26:38So, Patriots and Bills are starting off, even with a harder schedule, starting off on a good spot, being in the East with the Jets and the Dolphins.
26:46Right. Oh, that's the saving grace. You just got to make sure.
26:49Pencil in the four wins. Honestly, pencil them in.
26:52Well, but that's the thing, right? Like, as long as you handle your business there, if you have a hiccup in one
26:58of those games, it gets real complicated. For sure.
27:00Also, Buffalo has seven standalone primetime games this year.
27:03I mean, if you lose to the Jets or Dolphins this year, somebody's getting fired.
27:07Seven standalone primetime games, two of which are on the holiday, right?
27:10So, they play Thanksgiving and Christmas. So, I get it.
27:13Like, Josh Allen, you want to keep him in primetime?
27:16You want to have him out there? That's great.
27:19But that's tough. You know? That's like Tom Brady stuff, like from the old Patriot era kind of things where he just happened.
27:25And then they didn't play on the Christmas Day games and things like that.
27:29That wasn't even a thing back then when Tom Brady was playing.
27:32So, this is a lot for Josh Allen. If you want to make an argument for the Patriots not winning this division,
27:38it's the difficulty of the timing of that Buffalo schedule, which I think gets a little tricky, especially as you start to compress things.
27:45If you have injuries towards the end of the year with these short weeks and these holiday games and everything's at night
27:51and everything's a weird travel schedule and you have less practice time, that's the argument.
27:55It's not an argument I'm going to make. I still think the Bills win this division.
28:00So, that's where I'm at with it. Anything else here to give me the line you think you're going to see, guys?
28:06The prediction for DJ Moore this year with Josh Allen Boggs.
28:09What does that number look in your head like?
28:11Give me catches. Give me yards. 75, 1108. That's pretty good.
28:15What do you think, Andrew? You want to go over under that?
28:18I think I'd probably say something similar. That's kind of where my mind was going.
28:22Maybe eight touches. I would think more catches. Out of necessity.
28:25I would have said maybe not eight touchdowns. I don't know.
28:28DJ Moore's never really been. I mean, he's never had touchdowns.
28:31He had 11 zone targets last week. I never want to say.
28:35Well, he's never been a double-digit touchdown guy. Well, he's never had Josh Allen as a quarterback.
28:39He's played more games with Kyle Allen than he has with Josh Allen.
28:43But the one thing is that Brady doesn't tend to feed one guy in the offense.
28:47I mean, Shakir has kind of been the focal point of this passing game the last two seasons.
28:52And he's barely cracked the top three fantasy wide receivers inside the top 36.
28:56And that's what 95 and 100 catches the last two years.
28:59And he even had. Yeah, exactly. So I think maybe that's.
29:02I also think DJ Moore's better than Shakir. And I don't think that Moore's fall off in efficiency last year is due to his lack of talent.
29:10I think it was just the lack of, hey, Ben Johnson doesn't want to play with me anymore.
29:15I'm going to use Luther Vernon and my other fun toys, Colston Loveland.
29:19And DJ Moore, we're only going to use you when Roman Dunez is injured.
29:23So I've already bet Josh Allen, by the way, for MVP at this number of plus 600 that you can get right now.
29:29Just because I feel like he's going to have so much.
29:32Not that he needs the exposure, but he's got so much national exposure.
29:36And if he has these big games on there, like it's going to be really tough to be.
29:41What are the odds he mentioned Slick Rick in his speech again?
29:44A hundred percent. A hundred percent. Because it's fun.
29:47And he'll be like, we did it again, man.
29:49We did it again. But look at the rest of the bill stuff.
29:53Plus 1100. The best odds on betting pros right now to win the Super Bowl for the bills that you can find.
29:59It is. It does feel like new building, new coach, new vibes, new receiver.
30:03Like I'm very tempted about that one too. But I definitely think here's my problem.
30:07If I think Josh Allen is going to win MVP, what do we all know?
30:11MVP and winning the Super Bowl does not go hand in hand.
30:14We have seen that for the last 25 years.
30:17The last guy to do it. Kurt Warner. The last guy to do it in 1999.
30:21The last guy to win MVP and win the Super Bowl in the same year.
30:26That was it. That's it. It's a long time ago.
30:28After you weren't born. Right. I mean, holy crap.
30:31So look, this is a really difficult situation here for me.
30:34But I'm not saying you can't bet it because it's going to grow.
30:38So you know what? I'm going to say bet it.
30:40Screw it. Screw it. I'm going to say bet it because you know it's not going to be plus 1100 by the time we get to December 1st.
30:48Somebody has to win the division. Well, exactly. Well, conference winner plus 510.
30:52Anybody want to go that? Anybody? Anyone? Bueller? Plus 510.
30:55That's pretty good. To represent the AFC? No, you still don't believe in the defense.
30:59No, it's not that I don't believe in the defense.
31:02We're not talking about the Bengals. Is that for me?
31:04The Bengals are the team I want to bet on the AFC.
31:08You want to bet on the Cincinnati Bengals? Do you not care about defense at all?
31:12It's all fantasy football? It's not the same defense as it was last year.
31:16It's way different. Yes, it is. No, it's not that.
31:19All I know is this. They added Dexter Lawrence.
31:21Josh Allen was one or two plays away from beating Denver in Denver last year.
31:25I'm going to go out to the Billser. Patriots beat Denver in Denver.
31:29Yes, but let's also discuss the context of that game.
31:32We don't need to go more into the details of how that won.
31:36I didn't see half that game and I watched it and it was difficult to see in the snow.
31:41I couldn't even see that game. So I don't know how anybody else saw that.
31:45And I love that the Patriots wore the whites that day too.
31:48I was like, what are you doing? I will say one thing about Buffalo that I always like to bring up when
31:54we're talking about teams and how they do from year to year.
31:58They did have the healthiest offense in the NFL last year.
32:01So I do think it's good that they have a lot of depth.
32:05The interior of the offensive line makes me nervous.
32:07Yes, I would say good. O-line looks really good on paper right now.
32:11Top five unit, I would say if they get banged up.
32:14I would agree. How does that impact the offense?
32:16So poorly division winners minus 125. So not terrible juice, but it's fine.
32:20Make the playoffs. Yes. Minus one 320. I'm sorry that that no is not an option.
32:24Plus 275. And then the win total, gentlemen. Do you want to take a gander?
32:28Take a guess? Ten and a half. Ten and a half is correct.
32:32I will go over that though. To me, this is...
32:35I would even push this to 12. And you'll get plus money there.
32:39So just saying. Because the over at minus 110 is not great.
32:42So if you move this just one to 11 and a half, I think this is a 12 win team.
32:47I do. I think the Bills are a 12 win team.
32:51Again, we got four wins in division. Right? To start with.
32:54I think so. We're probably split with the Patriots at least.
32:57That's five. So we've just got to find seven more.
32:59That's it. Just got to find seven more wins.
33:02And I'm there, Erickson. Did I sell you on it?
33:05I think I like the MVP one more. MVP is the best one.
33:08Yeah. Because again, we're right back to who else is coming out of ASU MVP.
33:13Especially if the defense gets beat up. Yes, they added some depth.
33:16But now you have to outscore everybody you play just like the Mangals.
33:20So Josh Allen thrives in that role too. And it's going to be like the opposite of the Madden curse, right?
33:25I put you on the Black Book. You win MVP.
33:28It's going to be a beautiful thing. Is that how it works?
33:31I'm telling y'all that's how it's going to work.
33:34So that's what I'm saying. New Black Book just came out on Amazon.
33:38Six to one. You heard it here first. Erickson, Bogman, myself, D-Bro wrote that bad thing.
33:42Coverboy is going to go out there. And he's going to go out there and win MVP as opposed to that Madden coverboy stuff.
33:49Which I think we're going to talk about tomorrow on the show.
33:52I want to have a long conversation about how worried we are really about that stuff.
33:57No, I'm not worried about it at all. Can we talk about Madden after that?
34:01They're doing something totally different from what they always do.
34:04Totally different. The Kurt Signetti. After we talk about that curse, can we talk about voodoo?
34:08Sure. I mean. I want to talk about the U.S.
34:11Our time on. I want to talk about the Kurt Signetti cover for the college game, though.
34:16Because it looks. Doesn't it look like he. I mean.
34:18I don't know if anyone's seen this. But if you haven't seen it.
34:22You should run to the internet. It totally looks like a really bad, like, Disney Channel show or something.
34:27Where he's, like, in charge of these guys. That have just.
34:30They're out of control with this college football program.
34:33And Coach Kurt is going to have to put his foot down.
34:36It's NCAA 2027. It's in the game. On Disney Plus.
34:39Streaming on Hulu. On Hulu Plus. Sam Brewer couldn't put his dishes away.
34:43Oh, my God. That guy. All right. Let's talk about the Jets because we have to because they're in this division.
34:48So, the Jets. I think the idea is it can't be worse than last year.
34:53To which I say, good. It's possible. I did like their draft.
34:56I have to say, I thought they had a good draft.
34:59I like what they did. I thought in my head last year.
35:02After watching Hard Knocks the year before and watching Aaron Glenn play football my whole life.
35:07I was like, man, I think Aaron Glenn might end up being a pretty good head football coach.
35:12He seemed to have all the earmarks of it.
35:14And then I saw a couple of the early game plans and a couple of things that he looked completely out of his depth.
35:21Things were not good for the Jets last year.
35:24So, no matter how much talent you have, I think it's problematic right from the start.
35:28The coordinator is potentially problematic, too. Frank Reich has been bouncing around for a while, I think with good reason.
35:34So, no matter how much talent you might have brought in, it's still A, very young talent.
35:38And B, Geno Smith is still your quarterback. And I know this is the part in the show where Andrew Erickson is
35:44going to tell me that Geno Smith is good.
35:47And this is the part in the show where I be quiet and I just listen to Andrew Erickson tell me that
35:53and I shake my head and I go, mm-hmm.
35:56Mm-hmm. So, go ahead, Andrew. You know, remember who his office coordinator was last year?
36:00Chip Kelly? Guy didn't even make it through the entire season.
36:03Like, his number one receiver got hurt in week one.
36:06You're correct. Brock Bowers. These things can be mutually exclusively true.
36:09Like, Chip Kelly can be bad and Geno Smith can also be bad.
36:12Yeah, what I'm saying is he was put in a terrible situation.
36:16Nobody, every quarterback would have played like crap on the Raiders last year.
36:19Including, like, anyone. He lost his number one receiver after week one.
36:23Brock Bowers was basically never healthy for the majority of last year.
36:26And he missed a ton of games. And if you look at the splits with Geno Smith played, how many touchdowns per
36:32game do you think Geno Smith averaged with Brock Bowers last year?
36:35There's a trivia question for you. How many? How many touchdowns per game did he average with Brock Bowers?
36:41Yes. How many games did he play with Brock Bowers last year?
36:44He played, I believe it was 11 games. 11 games total.
36:47So, I think he averaged one and a half.
36:50That is correct. One and a half touchdowns. You know, I'm MVP.
36:53He threw a touchdown. Look at you. Look at you.
36:56You scored a whole touchdown, Geno. So proud of you.
36:59Yeah, but what I'm saying is it's significantly better than it was.
37:02How many interceptions did he average over that same period?
37:05I'm just curious. Also one. All right. So, I gave it right back.
37:08So, I think that with a better offensive line, I think the Jets have a good offensive line.
37:13I think they have a top 10 offensive line.
37:16They have two strong former first round tackles bookending this offensive line.
37:19So, I think they're in decent shape. So, with time, with a number one wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, adding in two really
37:25talented rookies, first round picks, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper.
37:28I know that Boggs like Omar Cooper a lot.
37:30I think that this is a situation that's so much better for Geno Smith.
37:34He was seventh in completion rate last year from a clean pocket.
37:38So, when the Raiders actually gave him time, when it wasn't behind a patchwork offensive line, he had his moments last year.
37:44And, like, the thing that I want to point out is he's not like Rodgers or Kirk Cousins where he's coming off a torn Achilles.
37:51Like, he still has the arm strength to push the ball down the field.
37:55So, I think that Frank Reich thing, that's where I will stop waxing poetic in any way, shape, or form about the Jets.
38:01It's a good point. Because I'm not going to sign off on Reich.
38:05Although, Geno Smith does fit his type of quarterback.
38:07quarterback, big, big arm in the pocket. Like, that's basically what you're looking for when Frank Reich is your offensive play color.
38:13But he has obviously been really bad the last two spots he's been in the NFL.
38:18So. Well, by the way, who led the AFC in interceptions last year, Erickson?
38:22It was Geno Smith. It was Geno Smith. Just putting that out there.
38:25Yeah. Because he had no help. Just putting that out there.
38:28Well. He had to do everything on his own.
38:31Sometimes you got to help yourself. Sometimes you got to throw to your team.
38:35Spike it. So spike it. Throwing to your team, more helpful than throwing to the other team.
38:40That's what I find. Bogman, give me your take on Geno here.
38:43What happened to the team he left? They won the Super Bowl.
38:46With a quarterback that had a history of being great?
38:49No, sir. Well, he was great the year before.
38:51Okay. In soda. He was. He was pretty good the year before.
38:55He was. He's very good. He's very loaded. Geno's not starting over half the games for this team.
39:00Kate Klubnik's going to get a long look. Why not?
39:03Why not? Honestly. Yeah. I don't know. I don't have an answer for that.
39:07It's because you don't. There isn't a good one.
39:09Why? Why wouldn't you say he started a million games in college, right?
39:13You drafted him. So he's better than Brady Cook.
39:15He's already the backup. Geno Smith's not going to make it through the whole year.
39:19Either in injury or performance. Geno Smith's not going to make it through the whole year.
39:24So I don't really care about Geno Smith in this equation.
39:27He's not long for the Jets either way. Right?
39:29So they're not beholden to him. Maybe Aaron Glenn is for his job.
39:33But either, you know, they're just saying, hey, look, Aaron, you have this job.
39:37Don't listen to the outside noise. We're not going to fire you.
39:40It doesn't matter for Owen, whatever. We don't care.
39:43Or he's going to put Geno Smith in until he's fired.
39:46And then ownership's going to say, let's see what we have from the kid.
39:50Put him in. And, you know, either way, Kate Klubnik starts most, I think most games, at least half of these games for the Jets this year.
39:57Just to see what he has. Because you have a full crop of quarterbacks coming in next year.
40:02You don't want to have wasted this pick. Let's at least see what Klubnik has.
40:06Maybe he bounces way back. Maybe Clemson was just really bad last year.
40:10And he should have been a top 10 pick this year.
40:13Right? That could be in there with Kate Klubnik.
40:16So let's at least see. So I don't really care about Geno Smith one way or the other.
40:21I don't, you know, I don't like him personally.
40:23As, you know, as a person, he's great. As a quarterback, I don't want any more of Geno Smith.
40:29And I'm not. I think there's also a lot.
40:31I understand everything that Erickson said. He's probably better than what he was last year.
40:35But I'm not going to make any excuses for Geno.
40:38He's washed. He's done. Two things on that. The first thing is, he's also coming back to a media market that really,
40:44like, ran him out of town with good reason, too.
40:47New York is tough. This is not like a, not a homecoming for Geno Smith where it's like, oh, or it's like, oh, cool.
40:54Geno's coming back. It's a beautiful thing. We're going to get him back.
40:57And we all love Geno. He wants. No, there's not that kind of relationship he has with the fan base.
41:03It's not that kind of relationship. Or the media.
41:05It was. Believe me, I live here. Can beggars be choosers?
41:08I mean, my God. It was ugly from the draft day on.
41:12It was never pretty here for Geno. Okay. And the other thing, Erickson, because I don't want you to get so hung
41:18up on just how bad everything was last year.
41:20Over the last two years, what quarterback has thrown the most interceptions in the NFL?
41:25Geno Smith. It is Geno Smith. That is correct.
41:27What does he win? Yeah. You know what? Nothing.
41:30The best thing he's going to do for the Jets is to show the corners how to grab some picks in camp and practice.
41:36So they actually have one this year. Let's do that.
41:39Build encouragement to the defense. The defense should be way better, by the way.
41:43We've got to talk about that. We've got to talk about that.
41:46Over under three and a half weeks for the first interception for the Jets.
41:50It's going to happen in week one. D'Angelo Pons is taking you to the house.
41:54Week one. Book it. All right. Yep. How is that defense right now, Boggs, for you?
41:59I mean, they have eight new starters, or seven or eight new starters.
42:02So much improved, right? On Yamada. They traded for Tavondre Sweat.
42:06You add David Bailey with the number two overall pick.
42:08You got your old team captain, Demario Davis, back.
42:11You add a little pass rush in Joseph Osai.
42:13Nashawn Wright has been brought in here to get the next pick for the Jets.
42:17That's the reason he was brought in. The guy is a turnover machine, right?
42:21Minkum Fitzpatrick is a veteran that's going to direct all of the traffic, specifically in the secondary.
42:26And Pons goes after the ball. He's just, you know, a short king.
42:30So people don't like him coming into the NFL here.
42:33I love all the short kings. I got nothing but love for the short kings.
42:37Yeah, we have to. We have no choice. We have to.
42:40But I just think this defense is going to be much, much better.
42:43The offense, I don't know. You know, the O-line is fine.
42:46I like Omar Cooper Jr., Garrett Wilson, if he stays healthy.
42:50Adonai Mitchell is much better than he is as a one.
42:53Bruce Hall. Yeah, Bruce Hall. Bruce Hall is great.
42:55And they got the extension there. And they drafted a potential tight end that could be really, really good in Kenyon Sadiq.
43:01I think there's a lot of ceiling and a lot of floor for Sadiq.
43:05I'm not 100% sold on him, but there's a lot of ceiling there.
43:09So I think you're going to see a much better team than you saw last year.
43:13Yes. Not because of Geno Smith, just because the law of averages say this team has to be better.
43:19You don't think Geno Smith can be a better passer than Justin Fields was last year?
43:23A better passer, sure. Yeah, that matters. Is he going to win more games?
43:27I don't know. I mean, Justin Fields, how many games did he win?
43:31Again, Ayrton, I don't think Geno is playing more than half the games for this team.
43:35He won four of the six games he started for the Steelers the year before.
43:39I mean, he's not... Geno's not starting... I'm just saying he did where he was 4-2 when he was almost 5-1 for the Steelers.
43:46Yeah, because he had eight... Well, that's why he got a job with the Jets.
43:50He wasn't asked to do everything, which is what Geno's had to do the last two years by throwing all these picks.
43:56And his best game was against Pittsburgh, too, by the way.
43:59And also, that insult to injury, the Jets' three wins last year were all against...
44:03At least from what I was reading, they were all against backup quarterbacks.
44:07It was really... But I do want to last one thing about Aaron Glenn, because I was trying to figure out if...
44:13Again, I literally searched this on Google. It says, did Aaron Glenn do anything right last year for the Steelers Jets?
44:19Because I was really trying to figure out... That's a hell of a prompt, Eric.
44:23I was really trying to figure out... Was there like a semblance of...
44:27I mean, the team won three games, like I just said, against backup quarterbacks.
44:31Again, there was not a lot of greatness from this Jets team, which is why they had the second overall pick.
44:37So, last... They got the second overall pick? Is that the thing that it said?
44:41So, yeah. That was a big win. So, Aaron Glenn, one of 23 coaches since 2000, is from ESPN to win three
44:47or fewer games in his first season of that group.
44:50Only four rebounded to make the playoffs during their tenure.
44:52Dan Campbell, who obviously Aaron Glenn coached under. Jim Schwartz, Zach Taylor, Leslie Frazier.
44:56But, based on the overall numbers, Glenn is three times more likely to get fired before the 2027 season than for the
45:03Jets to make the playoffs in his New York tenure.
45:05So, that's kind of... He will get fired before season's end.
45:08There's this line in Apollo 13 where the flight director goes, what do we have on the spacecraft that's good?
45:14Right? After all this stuff has happened. That's what you just sounded like, Erickson.
45:18Like, what has Aaron Glenn done that's good? He will be fired before the end of this.
45:23He will be fired before the holidays. I mean, probably.
45:25It will be fired before the holidays. I want to...
45:28And this is something I didn't really know until I kind of dug more into it.
45:33So, last year, he put Steve Wilkes more in charge of the defense than he definitely should have.
45:38Yes. Like, that was a big mistake that he made.
45:40Yes. And I was actually looking more into it.
45:43And he... The reason he hired Wilkes was because Wilkes was familiar with the 49ers defense, which a lot of the Jets
45:49players that were on the roster last year played at Arsala or were familiar with the 49ers defense.
45:54But when he tried to do that, we saw, obviously, it not work out.
45:58And then they traded their two best defensive players midseason.
46:01So, I don't think Aaron... And this is on him.
46:04Like, he decided to hire Wilkes. Right. So, that's his fault.
46:07But I... To Boggs' point, this defense is going to be way different.
46:10Like, the personnel is different. The scheme is different.
46:13It's going to be Aaron Glenn's actual guys. I hope it performs better.
46:16Different can be good, but different can also just be equally bad.
46:20I mean, they won three games last year. It's not going to be that bad.
46:24It's terrible. Yeah. Like, I don't know. I like the mix, man.
46:27I like getting to Vondre Sweat because you had to replace Quincy and Jermaine Johnson, you know...
46:32Did you only have that 12th? Going with Sala, I think it's great.
46:36But then you get David Bailey next to him.
46:38I really like the way that they have this defense structure.
46:41It is old with Demario Davis and Minka Fitzpatrick back there, right?
46:45But those are veterans. They're going to set you up in the right spot.
46:48They're going to set these young guys up for success.
46:51So, I like the way the defense is put together.
46:54Obviously, Geno is the main question. You have skilled position players, like Erickson said, who have own line.
46:59The defense will be better. I think... What's the win total here?
47:02Well, I'm skipping past all the other bets. The win total, you want to guess...
47:07What would you set it at, Box? Four and a half.
47:10Yeah. Over. Erickson? It's four and a half. I'm taking the over.
47:13It's five and a half for even money. No.
47:15It's going to be a sweat no matter what.
47:18I'm taking the under. Five and a half. I'm taking the under.
47:21Five wins is ambitious. Wait, do I play Miami week 18?
47:24I need that. I don't know. It's okay. Look it up.
47:27Look it up. I'm looking. I'm looking. I want to know if they do, because that's pretty funny if they do.
47:33That would be amazing. That's the battle for the number one pick.
47:37Where are the Arizona Cardinals that week? What are they doing?
47:40They play the Buffalo Bills the last week of the season.
47:43Hell. Hell. Okay. Unless everybody's sitting. Hold on. I'll just run through it here.
47:47At the Titans, loss. Yeah. Green Bay, loss. At the Lions, loss.
47:50At the Bears, loss. Cleveland at home. That's a win.
47:53At New England's a loss. Miami at home is a win.
47:56Vegas at home is a win. 33 wins! At KC, home against Buffalo at Los Angeles at Miami could be a win.
48:02Four. Broncos loss at the Cardinals. That's a win.
48:05That's going to be Carson Beck. That's five. Five.
48:07But then you finish out with New England, Minnesota, Buffalo.
48:10I mean, it's Klobnik and Glenn Spiderman. I'll take my under on the five and I'm still very content there.
48:15Klobnik versus Beck at the end of the year.
48:18What a game. Oh, man. Can't wait for it.
48:20What a game. Can't wait for it. All right.
48:23That leaves only. They say you should save the best for last, but that's not what we're doing here.
48:28We're saving the worst for last. It's the Miami Dolphins, everybody.
48:31So if you're still with us, thank you. I appreciate you.
48:34It's cool to stick around and hear about the Dolphins.
48:37I've already bet the under on this win total.
48:40We'll get to it in a second. But look, Miami has flushed the toilet here.
48:44That's what they have done, right? They're just flushing through the front office, just completely cleaned house of everybody and $179 million in dead salary cap.
48:51Just stunning stuff. So new quarterback Malik Willis is there to a tongue of Ilo has moved on to Atlanta.
48:57We'll talk more about that tomorrow on the show.
48:59But they did not give him a whole lot to work with.
49:03And now good job by them not dragging out the Devon HN scenario into the year, because that would have been a mess.
49:09The last thing you need is him holding out, missing camp, and then getting hurt with a soft tissue injury in the first two weeks and not playing.
49:17I can just, you can't have that happen. So they traded Jalen Waddle.
49:20Tyra Kill is gone. Everything is gone. Jeff Halfley is there.
49:23Boggs, this feels just like a complete and utter dismantling disaster waiting to happen.
49:27You look at some of the fun things around the league right now.
49:31Like the worst wide receiver room belongs to them.
49:33The worst offensive line, potentially, you could talk about.
49:36If you want to talk about how good or bad they are.
49:39The worst cornerback with secondary room. You could talk about it.
49:42There's a lot of things. Worst tight end situation is unless Greg Dulcich really gets you fired up.
49:47Don't say that in front of Erickson. I know he does love Greg Dulcich.
49:51So he had a breakout rookie. He was being ranked ahead of training.
49:55I already poked the bear on Geno Smith. I don't know if I want to tempt that faith twice in one show.
50:01I knew what I was going to get on that one.
50:04But, but Boggs, I mean, I'm trying to find the silver lining here to this cloud, but it just feels like a whole lot of rain.
50:11Yeah. I mean, 2026 is going to be rough for the Dolphins.
50:15That's just it. Right. I mean, I think it's everything you said about the units specifically, right?
50:19Wide receivers. Who has a worse wide receiver unit than this team?
50:23No way. I can't name them. Who has a worse O-line?
50:26I don't know who it is. Like you said, the secondary is bad.
50:29Here's the good thing is a lot of fat is going to be trimmed this year from this Dolphins roster.
50:35Right. That's just what it is. You're going to see they're going to go hard in camp.
50:40This team is going to have a lot of injuries.
50:43You're going to see who wants to play because they know they're going to sink down to the bottom.
50:48They're going to have a very high pick next year.
50:51You'd assume it's number one overall and, you know, or in the top three.
50:55And they're going after Jeremiah Smith while other teams up there are going for quarterbacks because they just signed Malik.
51:00That's the assumption. Now Malik falls completely flat on his face and is terrible.
51:04Then maybe they're in the quarterback market next year, which is a possibility as well.
51:08But I think I think Malik is going to be fine.
51:11Looking at the schedule, I think they might think that if they let's say they're the worst record, you don't think they're going to take another quarterback.
51:19You think they're going to stick with Malik because I don't.
51:22It really depends on what Malik looks like. Like if Malik puts up OK numbers, but they're giving up 40 points a
51:28game, then they're going to stick with Malik. If, you know, the defense plays better than we expect and Malik has thrown
51:34a lot of picks and fumbling the ball, then yeah, they'll replace him.
51:38But they did just sign him to a decent contract.
51:41So I think the idea is, is you have your quarterback of the future now and you are looking to fill in those other spots while everyone zigs.
51:48You want to zag, right? Like there's going to be a lot of really good players in this draft.
51:54So you have your quarterback. So go get Jeremiah Smith, who's the number one pick in this class.
51:59Or Colin Simmons, who is one of the number one or Dylan Stewart, like whoever, whichever defensive player, if it's not if it's not, you know, a quarterback.
52:07So but you have the worst wide receiver room in the NFL.
52:10I think Jeremiah Smith is probably priority number one right now.
52:13Theoretically Erickson, the wide receiver room looks like the free agent group.
52:16It looks like the waiver wire in a 14 team fantasy league.
52:20I'm going to read the names to you. Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Malik Washington.
52:24Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell and, you know, Coleman, Kevin Coleman will, you know, maybe we have some optimism for Terrence Marshall Jr.
52:30Is out there. I mean, this is Jalen Rager.
52:32Jalen Rager still on a roster recently signed to the Miami Dolphins roster.
52:36Formerly the last Patriots player to wear a number one.
52:39God. So Eric Erickson, talk to me about Miami here on the offensive side because it looks pretty bleak.
52:44Despite Greg Dolphins tight end one season. That is for sure.
52:47All right. People forget how good Greg Dolphins was his rookie year.
52:50He was look like a breakout sensation. And then he got banged up.
52:54Her bounced around from team to team. He's only 26 years old.
52:57So he was good last year. He has great hair.
53:00I'll give him that. Great hair. Great after the catch last season.
53:03Again, only Tucker craft was better for then Greg Dolphins on yards after the catch per reception basis.
53:08So I think he can make some noise. And to be honest about the wide receivers, I don't think it really matters
53:15because this team under Bobby Sloick, what do they want to do?
53:18Run the football. They want to run it with HM.
53:21They want to run it with Willis. They want to run it.
53:24You're only good player. Exactly. So I don't think that I think that they're not adding receivers because this is the identity of their offense.
53:31It's coming from the past, like coming from the Green Bay Packers.
53:34What did Green Bay do? Even though they had Jordan Love, he was super efficient.
53:38What do they want to do? We want to establish the run.
53:42We want to feed Josh Jacobs as many carries as we can grind out some of these wins.
53:47And to think about it, how do you slow down opposing offenses?
53:50Because the defense is terrible. You got to play bully ball.
53:53You got to be able to control the football on the offensive side, which again, if they can't run it, then they
53:59are screwed because the passing game is going to be a anemic.
54:03I do think it is fascinating, though, the Willis projection and how the team can view it because Malik Willis, based on
54:09he can basically play himself or play himself out of being the Dolphins quarterback in 2027, because if he goes out, falls
54:15out, makes them win a bunch of games they're not supposed to win.
54:19Well, it's like, sorry, you can't draft a quarterback because I played too good.
54:23Right. So and then the Dolphins are like, great.
54:25We're glad that you're good. We don't need to draft a quarterback.
54:28But then if he does terrible, it's like, great.
54:31Now we can draft a quarterback. So it's weird to view Miami as kind of like a win-win situation looking ahead to
54:372027, because that's kind of how I feel like when we're talking about them in 2027, it's going to be OK.
54:43Like we figured out what Malik Willis was. And also, too, because there are a lot of quarterbacks in the upcoming draft
54:49and we'll figure out exactly where they kind of stack up after this college football season plays out.
54:54But maybe having Willis also makes it so. Maybe it'll be obvious depending on how he plays, but if he has like
55:00a pretty good season, maybe teams won't know if the Dolphins are going to be in the quarterback market for rookie or not.
55:07Maybe it depends on which rookie quarterback they like, and maybe a team will trade up with them wherever they're picking or something along those lines.
55:14The last six weeks are brutal, right? There's looking at the schedule.
55:17The last six weeks are real bad. It's at New England at the end.
55:21Before that, it's Buffalo. Los Angeles at the Packers.
55:24Chicago at Denver. But before that, you know, you play the Jets twice.
55:27You open up with the Raiders at San Francisco.
55:30Who knows what's going on with the Niners right now?
55:33You get at Minnesota is always a coin flip.
55:35Cincy. I don't know. There are some winnable games in here.
55:38If you play well at all, it's just a lot of fun.
55:41It's just, is this a two win team or is this a six win team?
55:46I'm not sure where they are. I have an answer for that and I will tell you exactly what it is.
55:51But this is a team that hasn't won a playoff game since the year 2000.
55:56Okay, I just let that. So there's been a generation of, a literal generation of Dolphins fans who have never seen a playoff win.
56:02This is also the first time in a decade they haven't had a primetime game.
56:07So the NFL knows what they are. I think they have like something like 11 of their games are at one o'clock or something this year.
56:14It was like this crazy thing. It was like, just get that Dolphins game out of the way.
56:19Put it early. Just, just put it on there.
56:21Just let's not talk about it. Just bury it with all the other games at one o'clock.
56:26I'm not talking about anything else with the wind total here because I'm not talking about, by the way, in case you're
56:32curious to, to make the playoffs for the Dolphins plus 1200, just to make the, I mean, that, that to me is also absurd.
56:39That should be way higher of a number. You'd be giving me like, it's not high enough.
56:44That's what I mean. It should be plus 3000.
56:46I mean, Malik Willis can, I mean, Malik Willis has been really good in his limited sample size, like borderline.
56:52Limited sample size was with the Packers. Like, okay.
56:54I think it's a very hard grading curve to say Malik Willis can be good in this circumstance.
56:59I don't know if anybody can be good in this circumstance.
57:02I think that if, especially going back to the receiver conversation, Chris Bell is a major wild card here.
57:08Cause what if he does come back and he's like, oh man, this is like a guy that should have been a first round pick.
57:15And then we view this offense really differently as, oh wait, now Greg Dulcich is a guy.
57:19Oh, Chris Bell is a guy. And they already have a chance who's an established stud at the running back position.
57:25And then we go from this team has literally no weapons to, okay.
57:29Like, yeah. I mean, but to, to pass to Chris Bell, you have to have more than a half a Mississippi.
57:35And that is where in lies the problem. I feel like for the Dolphins, the, the old line is, but you can
57:41make up, you can buy time with his legs.
57:43You're right. Yeah, you're right. So, but you know, is Chris Bell starting week one, right?
57:48Like I just pointed out, Chris Bell is a nice, he's a nice buy, uh, for rebuilding team right now, because I
57:54think either he's going to by the end of the year, I think he's the number one for the Dolphins.
57:59Well, I think they take Jeremiah Smith. Okay, great.
58:02All the coverage rolls to Jeremiah Smith. Now Chris Bell gets one-on-ones that he excels at.
58:06So, um, I think Chris Bell could be a nice piece here in there are.
58:11There are positives for the Dolphins. I think like we said, you don't expect to win anything this year.
58:16The expectations are at the bare bottom. So if you win five games, that's going to be somewhat fine for the Dolphins and their fan base.
58:23It's next year. You know, you have to make the improvements this year.
58:27This year, you have to trim the fat. And next year is where you start, you know, you have a lot of
58:33picks starting incorporating these picks and making this roster way better.
58:36The talent is on the field. It's never on the sideline.
58:39So, you know, like you can hire the best coach in the history of the world to coach this Dolphins team.
58:45And they are not making the playoffs. Bill Belichick can come back and be in his prime.
58:50And he's not taking this team to the playoffs.
58:52It's not happening. They could, they could. We don't have the best coach in the NFL either.
58:57They could start out one and oh, and I would bet that that is the Kirk cousins led Raiders according to you guys.
59:03Yeah. Uh, Mendoza led Raiders, but yes. Yeah. The more accurate.
59:06All right. The win total for this team. I've already bit the under and it's actually my favorite bet.
59:12Nope. Four and a half. Erickson. Four and a half.
59:14Two and a half. One. Can I get one?
59:17I think they're a auctioneer. I think they're a three win team.
59:20I just do. I think this is a three win team at best.
59:24And I think if you look at it any other way, you're nuts.
59:27You think he beat the Raiders week one? Kirk Cousins starts.
59:31Yeah. No. And I'll tell you why, because I think even with Kirk Cousins, there's enough on that Raiders team between Gentium
59:37Bowers to make a play or two. That will be the difference in that game because that secondary is trash.
59:42I don't think they can stop anybody. So I think it would.
59:46Wait, the Dolphins secondary against the. The all pro wide receivers on the Las Vegas Raiders.
59:50Not all pro wide receivers. I'm talking about the other guys, too, that once those guys get into the second level, they're not going to tackle anybody.
59:58They're not going to stop anybody. Brock Bowers is going to eat up that group.
60:02What I'm telling you is this, that I do think that if you if you want to entice me to the Dolphins cover that game, I'm listening.
60:09That guy has no faith in Dante Trader or Lonnie Johnson Jr.
60:13What's the line? What's the line? Week one. Dolphins at Raiders.
60:16I don't know what it is. I don't know either.
60:19I got to say. Which put it? I would say it's Raiders minus three and a half.
60:23Dude, should Kirk Cousins be three and a half point favorites against anybody?
60:27No, that's a real question. Let's see. We are.
60:29Quarterback making his first start. It might be two and a half.
60:33It is three and a half. Raiders minus three and a half.
60:36Yeah. You want me? The Raiders at home. Raiders at home right now.
60:40There we go. Before camp injuries. Give me the points.
60:42Give me the link. We'll listen to the points.
60:45We already got bets. Oh, God. It is plus one 76 on the money line.
60:49A lot of fun. This is this is it.
60:52Subscribe to the tailgate. Win yourself a jersey. Drop your comments below.
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61:01the previews of every division right here on the tailgate.
61:04We got to get out of here, though. They're kicking us out of the parking lot.
61:08We'll see you next time, kids. Welcome to the tailgate.
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