10 BEST NFL Week 6 Player Props & Touchdown Picks! (Ep. 2271)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
40 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 17, 2026
Published
Sat, October 17, 2026
15
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Carnell TateJalen CokerChristian WatsonDeshaun WatsonIsaiah LikelyJ Michael SturdivantJayden DanielsJaylen WarrenLuther BurdenMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael Penix Jr.Parker WashingtonRhamondre Stevenson
Player analysis
Player insights
Carnell Tate
PositiveProjection20:00
Tate under receptions against the Colts is a plus-money play (now slightly under -money). The speaker is playing the under on Tate's receptions rather than receiving yards. Tate has not hit the receptions marker in four of five games this season, with only three games hitting the projection. The Colts defense focuses on attacking slot receivers, which is where the opposing offense will make money, suggesting Tate will see reduced target volume.
Insight pagePositiveProjection34:00
Under 4.5 receptions is the recommended play; Tate is not expected to hit this marker. The slot is where the Commanders will generate offensive advantage, and Tate is likely to face coverage from either Sauce Gardner or L'Jarius Sneed, limiting his target opportunities.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveProjection50:36
Christian Watson at 10-to-1 first touchdown is the recommended play. Watson has scored 3 first anytime touchdowns this season; Jordan Love targets him early and often in games. The matchup is expected to be pass-heavy, and Watson will be a primary target. His 10-to-1 odds are better than previous weeks (7.5-to-1), representing value.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeProjection37:04
Under 28.5 rushing yards is the recommended play. Watson has shown week-to-week volatility (40 rushing yards last week, 45 in week 3, but under projection in weeks 1, 3, and 5 with 2 hits in 4 attempts). BP projections support around 27 rushing yards, and the Ravens have not allowed more than 27 rushing yards to any single quarterback this season, also limiting QBs to 4 yards per carry. This matchup does not favor Watson running; the Ravens' defense will not allow this outcome.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveProjection47:22
Isaiah Likely at +185 (nearly 2-to-1) anytime touchdown is the recommended play. The Saints have given up multiple touchdowns, and with Jameis Winston at quarterback, the Ravens will run 40+ pass attempts. Likely is receiving strong target share, making him a high-volume play in a pass-heavy game.
Insight pageJ Michael Sturdivant
PositiveProjection45:18
J. Michael Sturdivant at +1050 (10-to-1) anytime touchdown is the long-shot play. He played 13% of snaps last week but caught a 43-yard touchdown pass that was nullified on an offensive pass interference call. Coaches indicated after the game that this touchdown would have been his first, and they expect it to come soon. Facing the Dallas Cowboys defense, which allows flexibility in scoring methods, Sturdivant represents a narrative-based value play with upside.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveProjection9:00
Coker over 55.5 receiving yards against the Eagles, who cannot cover slot receivers and have allowed 108 yards per game to slot targets over two healthy games this season. Coker runs the majority of his routes out of the slot and has been over 55.5 receiving yards. The Eagles rank second most in slot targets faced and allow over 300 passing yards in back-to-back games, ranking seventh in passing yards allowed per game. Bryce Young performs well when on the field, supporting continued production.
Insight pagePositiveProjection48:25
Jalen Coker at 3-to-1 anytime touchdown is the recommended play. The Eagles' defense has not been as strong as expected, and of the 6 receiving touchdowns they've allowed, 5 have come from slot receivers—Coker's primary operating area. Tedaro McMillan has been the red zone target, but he should draw coverage, leaving Coker open. Bryce Young will be slinging the ball, and Coker should see the targets.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeProjection35:17
Under 38.5 rushing yards is the recommended play. The 49ers defense allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, anchored by linebacker Fred Warner who changes the dynamic for scrambling and mobile quarterbacks. Four of five quarterbacks faced by San Francisco have gone under their rushing projection; Malik Willis had 6 rushing yards against a 37.5 prop, and Bo Nix recorded a season-low in rushing yards. No quarterback has rushed for more than 10 yards against the 49ers this season. Daniels typically rushes 7 times per game, but the 49ers have faced only 5 scrambles all season (tied for fewest in NFL), and a QB spy should slow him down.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveProjection7:00
Warren receiving yards over 25.5 is the speaker's favorite targeted player for week six. The Buccaneers allow over five catches to running backs and 35 yards receiving per game. FantasyPros projections show slightly over 25.5 yards. PFF grading shows the Buccaneers rank 32nd in linebacker coverage, defensive back coverage, and D-line coverage against running backs in receiving situations. Warren has hit this marker in four straight weeks, all over 30 yards receiving, making this the speaker's number one over play of the week.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveProjection43:23
Luther Burden at +175 anytime touchdown is the recommended play. Atlanta allows nearly 2 passing touchdowns per game and functions as a pass funnel defense. Burden ranks 5th in the NFL among wide receivers in red zone targets this season with 8 targets. With Caleb Williams returning, the Bears' passing game should receive a bump, and one of their pass-catchers (Burden, Dunes, or Loveland) will score; Burden has been the most heavily involved in the red zone so far.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveProjection51:58
Marvin Harrison Jr. at 22-to-1 first touchdown for the Texans vs. Jaguars is the long-shot narrative play. The last time Harrison and CJ Stroud played together at Ohio State, they connected for 2 touchdowns against Georgia in the College Football Playoff. Harrison caught 14 touchdowns in 2022 with Stroud. The Texans will use red zone packages specifically designed to isolate Harrison as an X receiver, and they will want to establish early success with their star acquisition to validate the trade. Harrison scored a touchdown against the Cardinals in week 3 and has commanded a high target share of end zone targets throughout his NFL career (8 TDs as a rookie). The Texans are 1-4 and need a win vs. a division rival; getting Harrison a touchdown early would provide momentum and good vibes.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
NegativeProjection5:00
Penix under 31.5 pass attempts is a five-star bet on the FantasyPros prop cheat sheet. The Falcons operate as a run-first offense, ranking 30th in pass rate over expectation with the third-highest run rate in game scripts. Penix has gone over this number only once in his last five games, averaging 22.5 attempts in his first two games of the season. The Bears have allowed the lowest passing attempts this season at 26 per game, with only Bray Song surpassing 31 attempts against them in week one. Additionally, Penix is dealing with a rib injury, making a run-heavy game script likely with the Falcons able to run effectively on Chicago's defense.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveProjection11:00
Washington over 4.5 receptions at approximately -120 odds is a consistent play. FantasyPros projects him at five receptions, and he has hit this marker in three of five games. The matchup against the Eagles has improved significantly; cornerback Stingley rates around 40th among cornerbacks this year, and Ramsey is unranked when Washington plays out of the slot, creating a positive matchup. Washington is the main target for his team and came off a six-catch outing, supporting continued high-volume usage.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveProjection15:00
Stevenson over 19.5 receiving yards against the Jets is the speaker's play. He has hit this marker in two straight weeks, going over 20 yards. The Jets average around 28 yards given up to running backs in receiving and allow 6.5 yards per reception to running backs. The Jets rank 25th out of 32 in linebacker coverage against running backs, supporting dump-off plays to Stevenson. Even if Travion Henderson plays, Stevenson is locked into significant receiving volume and can hit this number on one catch.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Maybe you can do both.
0:04Boost Mobile, what's your plan? Week 6. We're going to be going through our touchdown calls, everything in between.
0:09Unfortunately, Eric's in your favorite bet last week was, I don't know, like inspired a little bit by you being in the
0:16same destination that Christian McCaffrey got married and you were there for a wedding and the over and the reception seems like it should have hit.
0:23Even though you weren't on the show, this was the one you were giving out on like, you know, the primer and everything like that.
0:31Didn't hit, but we're ready to cash them this week.
0:34You feel, you feel the prop gods just didn't have enough love for, I don't know, wedding signs?
0:39It feels like that should have played. Yeah, I know.
0:42I was feeling the good vibes with Christian McCaffrey.
0:45Now I did go 3-2 overall with my props on the official plays that I played last week on the betting pros primer.
0:51However, the last two weeks have kind of been meh for me in props, 3-2 both weeks, but that's because I've been better at sides and totals, right?
1:00So that's kind of usually the case is when one of them is doing well, the other one does worse and vice versa.
1:06So looking to get closer to a 4-1 in the props, maybe, maybe one of us can get a 5-0 perfect week.
1:13I need to get a 4-1. I don't have a 4-1 week.
1:16I've got two 2-3s and two 3-2s, I believe.
1:19I believe two weeks ago when we were on the show, I went 2-3.
1:23I think you went 3-2 if I'm remembering correctly.
1:26And I want to be better. And I want us to get one of those 5-0s.
1:31Last week, if we want to take a look at the updates for Elise Bogman and Joe, Bogman was 2-3.
1:37Joe Madden, 3-2. So very nice. They put some good plays in there for you guys.
1:41On the year, Erickson is 10-5. I am 8-7.
1:44We are still over 500 if those numbers seem to be correct.
1:48I feel like maybe I did. I miss that.
1:50I miss a week in there. Does that sound right?
1:53No, that sounds right. 5-10-15. I feel like I don't know.
1:56For some reason, the math does. I feel like I think I might not have added up now that I'm thinking about it.
2:03I think that would be, I would be 10-10.
2:06Maybe I didn't add up the week that we were before.
2:09And you would be 13-7. Okay, so live update there.
2:12You are 13-7. I am 10-10. Gotta keep it over 500.
2:15A couple of touchdown calls. You're still positive ROI on your touchdowns.
2:19I am not. We will try to rectify that this week.
2:22And we will play some first touchdowns at the end of the show.
2:26So we got a lot for you as we're going to be playing touchdowns, first touchdown.
2:31We unfortunately, the last thing before we get into this, we can't roll over Jameer Gibbs.
2:35But what we can tell you is Jameer Gibbs has hit five straight weeks every single week.
2:40As Erickson has been doing, it's my favorite thing we're doing right now is you've been, you bet one unit and then you take the winnings.
2:48You bet another and you've done it for five straight weeks.
2:51He's on a buy. He says he wants to beat LaDainley Tomlinson's touchdown record going into week seven.
2:57Can you give us an update of what that's going to look like?
3:00What is the you? What units are we? Are we like at four?
3:04Are we at four or five units that will be placed next week?
3:08I think it's four and a half. It's either four and a half or five units.
3:13I think is the amount that we're wagering on Jameer Gibbs anytime touchdown.
3:17It's actually really sad that the Lions are on a buy week because basically that's been the fuel to my anytime touchdown success.
3:23It's Jameer Gibbs scoring touchdowns and then picking players that are facing the Lions to score touchdowns.
3:29It's like basically has been like the entire portfolio of touchdowns in the prop show through the first five weeks of the NFL season.
3:36LaDainley Tomlinson has scored more times are not letting it does in my brain.
3:40Jameer Gibbs has scored more touchdowns than we have correctly picked so far this season.
3:44He has scored more than you and I have had correct picks.
3:48So I'm sad because I actually also get a text.
3:51My a lot going on everything like that. If there's a really good better something Erickson will text me on Sunday, but
3:57I get a Sunday text as soon as Jameer Gibbs scores a touchdown.
4:01That's a guarantee. So I'm just you're gonna have to find something else to text me about.
4:06Maybe we'll have like one of our crazy ones here, but I get a guaranteed Sunday text from Erickson Jameer Gibbs or LFG or something along those lines.
4:14So I sent you the one that was a I think two weeks ago.
4:18I sent you the DJ Khaled. Yeah, yeah, another one.
4:21Yeah, exactly. We're having fun. We're having a lot of fun with it.
4:25We can't do it this week, but at least next week we'll roll into it.
4:30So we'll remind you guys what that looks like.
4:32So we got the Jameer Gibbs role. We got our big board Bogman and Joe Madden doing us right.
4:38Let's see what we're going to be playing for this week and let's jump into our props for week six.
4:44We've got 10 of them and Erickson, why don't you kick us off with a quarterback prop?
4:49And this is actually one that I played two weeks ago and I cashed.
4:53I think at least I played this player on an under.
4:56I think it might have been completions. You're going to play pass attempts for who?
5:01Yep. For Michael Penix, Jr. Falcons quarterback going to go under 31 and a half pass camp.
5:06So this is a five star bet on the betting pros proper cheat sheet.
5:10Five star NFL props right now are up over 25 units so far this season.
5:14The prop bet cheat sheet has been spot on over the last several years when it comes to pass attempts.
5:20So that's always one of the markets I look like for when I'm looking for some of these props for the weekly show.
5:27So with Penix, I think it's really interesting case to take the under with him.
5:31You look at the Falcons and how they operate on offense.
5:35They are a run first offense. They are 30th in pass rate over expectation, which means they have the third highest run
5:41rate in those types of game scripts. So he's only gone over this number and one time in his last five games played.
5:48He had 32 attempts last week in that overtime game against the Falcons or excuse me, against the Ravens.
5:54Now, obviously, he didn't play in the overtime period, but still it was a back and forth type of game.
5:59The first two games of the season that he played just average 22.5 pass attempts.
6:04And the big thing that kind of makes it a little bit more of a confident bet here is the Bears matchup.
6:10So the Bears have faced the total lowest passing attempts this season at 26 per game to opposing defenses.
6:16Only one quarterback the Bears have faced this year has actually surpassed 31 pass attempts.
6:20That was Bray song all the way back in week one.
6:24And then just kind of like the overarching point, this guy's dealing with a rib injury.
6:28So if I'm the Falcons play caller, does it make a lot of sense to, OK, let's drop back to throw with
6:35this guy 40 times when we know we can run all over the Chicago Bears?
6:39I think it's going to be a run heavy game with B.
6:43John. Yes, he's going to occasionally throw to Drake London as his first read.
6:47But besides that, I don't really expect unless this game is another overtime type of thriller that PENIX is going to be able to attempt this many passes.
6:55So five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet.
6:58I am definitely tailing it. And I suggest you do the same.
7:02Yeah, I actually was looking at this one as well.
7:05I think I think my bet was like 20.5 completions two weeks ago.
7:09And I think that played out well. I'm fully on board with this one with Michael PENIX.
7:14I'm going to be playing it over. However, this is my favorite targeted player for the week.
7:19It's the first thing that I put up on the sheet, really just trying to find a decision on what side I wanted to play.
7:26I do lean into my receptions, but I held myself back a little bit and we're going to play the receiving yards for Jalen Warren this week.
7:34Jalen Warren going up against the Bucks, the Bucks giving up over five catches, by the way, which made me want to play the receptions.
7:41The reception markers at 3.5, giving up about 35 yards receiving to running back so far this season.
7:47The projection totals on BP, it's it's slightly over, especially because the line flips a little bit.
7:52Like I think there's some spots at 27. I've got this locked in at 25.5.
7:56So 25.5 hits the marker for at least, you know, the projection standpoint, if you care about that.
8:01But this is one of my favorite parts about it.
8:04PFF grading running backs versus the Bucks in RB coverage.
8:0732 on linebacker coverage, 32 on defensive back coverage on running backs and 32 on the D line.
8:13There it is. It is a bad run for running and for receiving.
8:16It works very, very well. And that's the receiving grade.
8:19It's the second highest receiving grade, according to PFF or running back for this week.
8:24Obviously, he chunks it out. He's hit this four straight weeks.
8:27I believe if you go over on betting pros, you can see four of the five games this season.
8:33He has hit this marker. And by the way, he's crushed it.
8:36They've all been over 30 yards receiving. There's no Roman Wilson.
8:40There's no Pittman. Aaron Rodgers dump off. Jalen Warren goaded 25.5 receiving yards.
8:43That's my favorite play of the week. That's my number one over.
8:47And when I got it, I had to get that one on the sheet just thinking you might you might have snagged that from me.
8:54I didn't know if you were into Jalen Warren, but I quickly put that one up on the sheet.
9:00You guys could go and have some fun and you guys can check out all of your bets, see how they reference versus betting pros.
9:07And you can find all of the NFL player prop bets with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
9:13Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value.
9:18Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros dot com slash props.
9:23And as mentioned, you can go in there and you can start sorting by projected EV five star bets.
9:29The five star bets and the four star bets as a simple click of just sorting.
9:33You can go through have been wildly profitable this year.
9:36So go and check all of that out. The prop bet cheat sheet.
9:40It is your number one friend on Sunday. All right, let's go into our second props of the week.
9:46Erickson hit us with your favorite second prop. Jalen Coker going over fifty five and a half receiving yards.
9:51The Panthers are taking on the Philadelphia Eagles without Jalen hurts this week.
9:55I know that I mentioned on the best bet show with Seth that the Panthers laying one and a half points was my favorite best bets.
10:03Now, obviously, that was before the Jalen hurts news broke.
10:06So just as an announcement, I'm still laying the points with Carolina Panthers.
10:10If it's three and a half, that's still one of my best bets.
10:13So continue to bet it with confidence and fade this Eagles team into oblivion.
10:18That's because they cannot cover slot receivers. They have allowed one hundred and eight yards per game to slot targets over his two healthy games.
10:25This season Jalen Coker has been over fifty five and a half receiving yards and he eats out of the slot.
10:31That's where he runs the majority of his routes.
10:34So second most slot targets faced to slot receivers is the Eagles defense.
10:38So I think Jalen Coker again, Bryce Young cooks when he's on the field.
10:42I think that's just going to continue here against a overrated Eagles defense over 300 passing yards allowed back to back games.
10:48Seventh most passing yards allowed this season per game.
10:51So give me the over on Coker. I made a rule.
10:54What like week one? I think maybe it was week two when they did it again.
10:59I made a rule. If you are going to give me a half decent line on four point five over receptions on
11:05Parker Washington, I'm going to take it. Well, guess what?
11:08It's not massively juiced. It's not one fifty or anything like that.
11:12You can get it right around like one. I think I did like one twenty.
11:16I think it's floating around. Yeah, I still see one twenty.
11:20So I'm locked in at one twenty over Parker Washington receptions.
11:23You're not going to get me off of it.
11:25BP projections like this because they've got him at five receptions.
11:29He has hit this in three of his five.
11:31And what used to be, you know, a matchup that was, you know, not great specifically because of Stingley.
11:37It was the Stingley effect here. Stingley has been OK.
11:40You know, he's like rated around 40th among cornerbacks so far this year.
11:44Ramsey, when Parker Washington is playing out of the slot, is like unranked so far this year.
11:49So this is actually a positive, a great matchup, if you will, for Parker Washington.
11:53And he has been the main target. They're going to continue slinging him the ball.
11:58It's coming off of a six catch outing. You give me four point five.
12:02I'm going to continue to play it over. I saw some it's on the fantasy side and I completely agree with this.
12:08Someone this past week, I'm forgetting who it was, but they had pointed out.
12:12They just said you probably and your league is probably still undervaluing Parker Washington.
12:17And I think that's still kind of playing out in the betting market a bit that I know people looking for like
12:23a little bit more consistency when he had that one big dud.
12:27But he is the number one target play here.
12:29And I'm going to play my Parker Washington 4.5 reception.
12:32So enough to be said. That is my second prop of week six.
12:36All right, let's go to your third prop. Erickson, what do you got?
12:40It is spooky season. So Cam Scadaboo over 56 and a half rushing yards.
12:44So I think that the market is sleeping a little bit here on the Giants running back.
12:49I know he lost a fumble last week, but John Harbaugh did not punish Najee Harris a couple weeks ago after he fumbled.
12:56So I think Scadaboo gets back to being the main workhorse for the Giants run game.
13:01And you can't ask for a better matchup this week than against the New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a league high
13:07133.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
13:10No defense is allowed more yards before contact and after contact per carry this season.
13:14So Scadaboo this year has been hit behind the line of scrimmage on a lot of his carries.
13:19He's been doing a lot of his damage after contact.
13:22So I think this is really one of his best matchups.
13:26He's had all season. New Orleans has allowed seven different running backs to hit not just double digit fantasy points, but to
13:32hit at least 54 rushing yards against them. Again, seven running backs in five games that the Saints have allowed to hit 54 rushing yards.
13:40Scadaboo has 56 and a half rushing yards in four or five games played this season.
13:44The only one where he fell short was that Rams game when Jackson got Jackson dark got hurt in the beginning of the game.
13:51And James Winston came off the bench and was dreadful.
13:54Every other healthy game that Scadaboo has played since week three of last season, he has hit at least 56 and a half rushing yards.
14:02So I just think this number is too low.
14:04I'm taking the over. I got another over. I'm going to play for you.
14:09The Scadaboo, by the way, I'm going to play my Ramondre.
14:12Ramondre, your Ramondre. Really? He's got the jersey right back there.
14:15Ramondre, baby. Ramondre. I was trying to think of like if I had it, I didn't have it clearly.
14:21If I could have had some type of spooky.
14:23It's not even Halloween, but some spooky thing. Thank you.
14:26Ramondre. Dang it. Missed operator. Editor, can we cut this?
14:29Boom. Ramondre Stevenson. If I could have only had that.
14:32Ramondre Stevenson. I love it. Receiving yards over. Now, the tricky thing that popped up was everybody thought like guaranteed Travion Henderson
14:39was going to be out so much. So we had him knocked out because they're like, he's been missed multiple weeks on fantasy pro side.
14:46Well, then all of a sudden he was like in a practice and that is kind of change the scope.
14:52I still think no matter what's going on, this is Ramondre Stevenson.
14:55Stevenson. Sisson. Sisson. It's Ramondre. Ramonster. Steven Sisson. Stevenson.
14:58And receiving yards over is my play against the Jets.
15:01He's hit this in two straight weeks. He's gone over the 20 marker.
15:05The Jets are averaging around 28 yards given up receiving to running backs.
15:09But what's more important to me on this fact is they're giving up around six and a half yards per reception to running backs.
15:16And I think that's going to play in well from a coverage standpoint.
15:20The one that I'm really looking at the Jets ranking 25th out of 32 at linebacker coverage against running backs.
15:26So we're going to have that dump off Ramondre plays that he's hit that two straight weeks.
15:31I really like this lined up 19.5 is the number that we're looking at.
15:35So over 19.5 receiving yards, it works even better, by the way, if you end up getting an official Henderson out, you're
15:41going to have Ramondre going to be locked into the total role.
15:45But I really don't even care. Travian doesn't really play a big role for this for me anyways.
15:50I personally think Stevenson is going to get this on one catch.
15:54So over 19.5 receiving yards, that is number three for me as we move through our favorite props of the week.
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18:21Alright, we've got more props in here. This is number four for each of us.
18:25I lose all my numerical side of how far we are because we've got ten total.
18:30But for you, Mr. Erickson, we have a correlative parlay.
18:33Both of ours. I love that you did this.
18:36We are playing a correlative parlay to where yours plays and it works for mine.
18:40Well, because I was looking at your prop as well as one of my potential ones.
18:45When I saw you in the show sheet, I knew which direction I wanted to go in.
18:50So we are talking about the Titans wide receivers here because they have a juicy matchup this week against Indianapolis Colts.
18:56But in a weird parallel universe, I'm the one that's actually taking the over here and you're the one that's taking the under.
19:03So I'm going to go over on Wanda Robinson at 35 and a half receiving yards.
19:08The Colts are a defense that you attack with slot receivers.
19:11They've allowed the second most yards to slot targets this season.
19:14If you look at on the prop at analyzer for Wanda Robinson and his receiving yards, comparable players, all green, all overs
19:21for every other slot receiver that has faced the Colts defense so far this season.
19:25Wanda has already gone over this number in three or five games this season and ranks fifth in the NFL in terms of slot targets.
19:33So he's going to go over his receiving yards, which means Welsh.
19:36Yeah, Carnell Tate receptions are going under. I didn't take the receiving yards.
19:40I take the receptions. I am playing the under receptions for Carnell Tate.
19:44That is actually a plus money play that's floating out there.
19:47I'm very into that. I was so close. I wonder if we can push this.
19:51It's actually now that I'm looking, it's even pushed to a little bit under minus money.
19:56But if I wonder if we can get this to a five star, it is a three star bet right now, which,
20:03by the way, the three star recommended bets on betting pros.
20:0618.7 percent ROI so far this year they are supporting.
20:09But the projections at four. He did not hit this.
20:12Obviously, last week, three of five games this year, he has not hit this marker.
20:16He'd have to get to five. And I think the main thing because you and I talked about this in the rank
20:23show, which kind of inspired both parts of this.
20:25Is that like the slot is where they're going to end up making any money.
20:30And also you saw like Tajay Spears getting, you know, nine targets out of the backfield.
20:35I whether it's sauce or it's Ward, like tastes the one that's going to get taken out of this game.
20:40The advantage is the players out of the slot.
20:43And you mentioned that's Wando Robinson. So Wando on the up, Carnell Tate not finding five receptions.
20:48So we are going to play under four point five receptions for the week.
20:52This is my favorite one because like we're we're holding hands through the beach.
20:56You know, it's footsteps. Yeah, Carnell Tate, Aaron Drew Erickson, Wando Robinson.
21:00I'm always with you. We're always with on this bet.
21:03So under on Tate over on Wando Robinson. That's going to take us to our final props.
21:08And guess what? I'm taking an under. You're taking an under and we are under riding it here.
21:13So get us our final bet and you're under for this one.
21:17Talked about a lot of different shows and programs this week about Jaden Daniels and how I think that his rushing is
21:23going to struggle here in this match against the 49ers.
21:26So I'm going to take the under on Jane Daniels rushing yards at 38 and a half.
21:31The 49ers defense this season has allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, and that's because of linebacker Fred Warner.
21:38He just totally changes the dynamic for scrambling quarterbacks and mobile quarterbacks.
21:42Again, they haven't faced the most mobile of all quarterbacks this season, but when they have faced guys that can move Malik
21:48Willis, Bo Nix, those guys combined for 16 rushing yards against the 49ers.
21:52It was a season low in rushing yards for Bo Nix.
21:55No quarterback has rushed for more than 10 yards against the 49ers.
21:59Four of the five quarterbacks that they face have gone under their rushing projection.
22:03Willis had six rushing yards with a 37 and a half rushing yards prop.
22:07So he dramatically underwhelmed versus what the market was expecting.
22:10Malik Willis is a quarterback that, yeah, we expect him to run just like we expect Jane Daniels to run.
22:16I think it's very curious that the number is almost identical to what Malik Willis was when he was up against the 49ers and he underwhelmed dramatically.
22:24Now, I know the prop at cheat sheet actually likes the attempts on the under a little bit more.
22:29So that was something that I was also considering.
22:32But it's also because the 49ers defense has just faced five scrambles this season tied for fewest in the NFL.
22:38But Jane Daniels, I just look at his game logs and like this guy's always rushing seven times and scrambling seven times in every single game.
22:46It seems like so I got a little spooked by that.
22:49And then just I'm going to trust in this defense, slowing him down with a QB spy because I don't think I ever have many answers.
22:57Dude, it was interesting. I looked at the injury report for the 49ers and commanders game and someone made a comment.
23:03It's not really often that you see an injury report where there's more guys injured than the 49ers team.
23:08And that is the current state of the Washington commanders with more guys on their injury report than the San Francisco 49ers.
23:15How is that even possible? By the way, they have they could feel the roster of injured players.
23:20How is that possible? The commanders are really banged up like across the board on defense on offense.
23:26The receivers are both dealing with hamstring injuries. Dracori Krosky Merritt has a groin injury now.
23:30So I think that Jane Daniels is going to try to be Superman.
23:34But I think in this case, well, you got Bizarro on defense on the other side and his name is Fred Warner.
23:41So I'm taking the under. You need to do that.
23:44You got the monster. His kryptonite. Superman's kryptonite is Fred Warner's.
23:47You get monster. We got to reset that. Yeah, editors, we cut it.
23:51We cut it. Do the line again. You got to actually do it.
23:54Oh, I actually have to do it. By the way, if you had the over on me knocking and dumping water all
24:01over my desk as I got super hyped up talking about the last prop, then you cashed.
24:06If people were wondering what I was doing, I just was like, I'm like, because I talk with my hands and I just annihilated water everywhere.
24:14So I was trying to listen to all of your great takes while attempting to clean my desk so it didn't destroy everything.
24:20So you guys cash that. All right. So you took a quarterback rushing under.
24:25You all get a quarterback rushing under because I am going to be joining you.
24:29But this time I am going to be taking the under on rushing yards on Deshaun Watson.
24:34Deshaun Watson definitely has had some of those bigger outputs.
24:37He had 40 last week, 45 in week three.
24:40He is playing a little bit of a week on week off week one, three and five.
24:45He's hit this two and four. He hasn't hit this.
24:48Maybe not. You don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but BP projections support this at around 27 rushing yards.
24:54This number is sitting at 28.5. And would you know it?
24:57Fun fact. The Ravens have not given up 27 more than 27 rushing yards to any single quarterback this season.
25:03That has not happened. They're also only giving up around four yards per carry on quarterback.
25:08So this would have to be something where the defense has locked down and Deshaun Watson feels he needs to run.
25:14That's not going to be this matchup with the Ravens.
25:17Casey Concepcion, hopefully out there. Harold Fanning gets back involved in it.
25:20This is not something that the Ravens are going to allow.
25:24Deshaun Watson projections. They play under this. They have not allowed it.
25:27I like this. So I am going with a second under here.
25:31Deshaun Watson under 28.5 rushing yards. Would you look at that?
25:34I said I wouldn't do two unders again because I finally lost my first under and now I'm going back to two.
25:41So we're going to have some fun with it.
25:43And we've had Bizarro World and Monsters and Kryptonite.
25:46Let's go to some touchdowns, though. Before we do, we're going to pick two touchdowns each.
25:51And then our first touchdown. You guys can go and check out the touchdown score report looking for an edge in touchdown bets.
25:57We got you. Our touchdown score report compares any time touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best.
26:04Anytime touchdown bets. Head to betting pros dot com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today.
26:09Mr. Andrew Erickson. Holy crap. Your two touchdowns. You have one that's going to be fun.
26:14And then it's going to be really fun here.
26:17You are going to open some eyes. So please, my friend, let us know about your two touches.
26:22And one of these is not your first touchdown, by the way.
26:26I'm just letting you know. Let everyone know right now.
26:29There's an over ten to one touchdown call, and that's not a first touchdown that you're playing.
26:34So hit us with your touchdown plays. All right.
26:36Going to go with Luther Burden at plus one seventy five for an anytime touchdown wide receiver for the Chicago Bears.
26:43Atlanta is allowing nearly two passing touchdowns per game.
26:45They are one of these defenses that's more of a pass funnel than run funnel burden.
26:50Surprisingly ranks fifth in the NFL this year in red zone targets this season among all wide receivers.
26:55He has eight. So given the fact that Caleb Williams is coming back, maybe gets a little bump.
27:01One of these Bears pass guys is going to find the end zone, whether it's Burden, whether it's a dunes, whether it's Loveland.
27:07Someone's going to score. And at least so far this season, Burden has been the most heavily involved in the red zone.
27:14So that's the direction I'm going to go in with him at one seventy five.
27:18And then my long shot for an anytime touchdown is Green Bay Packers wide receiver.
27:23Not not Christian Watson, not Matthew Golden. Wait, can I stop you real quick?
27:27Oh, hold on. Your touchdown call is better odds than my first touchdown call.
27:31Who is a Green Bay Packer? You have better touchdown odds on just an anytime touchdown with this guy.
27:37Can you even pronounce his name? I don't know.
27:39It's J. Michael Sturdivant, I believe, is his name.
27:42Green Bay Packers wide receiver. I think he played around 13 percent of the snaps last week.
27:47But the most important thing, he caught a forty three yard touchdown pass last week that was nullified on an offensive pass interference call.
27:54The coaches talked about this after the game that this is according to the Coach Speak Index.
27:59Shout out to Greg Branos. Excellent job over there.
28:02The coaches said that play he had last week would have been awesome to get him his first touchdown, but I'm sure it'll be coming pretty soon.
28:10That's all I'm saying. And when you're facing the Dallas Cowboys defense, you can pick and choose how you want to score your touchdowns.
28:17So I think that the fact that he scored last week and it got taken off that the coach should be like, you know what?
28:24Let's get him his touchdown. He had a really nice catch last week, but didn't count.
28:29Let's get him his score, especially against the Dallas Cowboys.
28:32So that's going to be my anytime. J. Michael Sturdivant at 10 to 1.
28:3610 to 1 plus 1050. It's incredible. All right.
28:39My two plays. I'm going to go. It's incredible plays here, Erickson.
28:42I'm going to go with Isaiah Likely. Isaiah Likely at almost 2 to 1 plus 185.
28:47Saints have given up a few touchdowns in here.
28:50Winston going to be absolutely slinging the ball. I really like the target share that he's getting right now.
28:55And when Winston is out there, we just know it's going to be 40 plus pass attempts going up against the Saints.
29:02I think this is a great play. And then Jalen Coker.
29:05You mentioned you like Jalen Coker in this one.
29:08You know, we were trying to we did this whole thing on tailgate about, you know, the Eagles and blah, blah, blah.
29:14And then we heard the Jalen Hurts thing. But if you just, you know, bring it back to the Panthers and don't
29:21think about the obvious thing that's going to happen.
29:23We all think the Panthers are going to win now.
29:26So clearly the Eagles will win by 20. Is that like their defense and Djean has not been as good.
29:32And when you look at some of the touchdown plays as well, the six receiving touchdowns they've given up, I believe five
29:39of those six have come out of like slot receivers.
29:42So, I mean, that is the play and that is where Jalen Coker lives.
29:46He's going to get those targets. I know Tedaro McMillan has been the dude, especially from a red zone perspective, but he should see coverage.
29:53Jalen Coker. I think Bryce Young will be slinging the ball.
29:56Jalen Coker is three to one, three to one.
29:59So, yeah, I love the odds on that one.
30:02So Jalen Coker, anytime touchdown, that is going to be my play.
30:05And that takes us finally to our first touchdowns.
30:08We have not hit one. Well, I will say we are getting to the point where we kind of need to hit
30:14one soon, you know, because it's like, I mean, I guess not like we could go probably 10 weeks without it being like too much of an issue.
30:23But like, let's try to hit one here. So there is no 80 to ones.
30:27There's no 50 to ones in here. I'm going to just tell you right now, I'm going to get mine out of
30:33the way because yours is like a little bit sexier.
30:36But Christian Watson has scored like three first anytime touchdowns.
30:39Jordan Love loves him. They love to go to him deep in games.
30:43He continuously gets the first touchdown. And I think that game is going to be slinging the crap out of the ball.
30:50And he has a little bit less odds than your touchdown call.
30:53He's 10 to one, which actually is better than I think the previous week where he's like seven and a half to one.
31:00I'm going to just roll this out again and take a shot at a 10 to one Christian Watson in a game
31:07that I think is going to be heavily pass influenced.
31:10And the ball goes to Christian Watson early and often.
31:12So 10 to one is mine. You, my friend, you are dancing with the devil on your play.
31:18You're going to London. And my God, are you really going to pick the name that I think you're going to pick?
31:24Marvin Harrison Jr. 22 to one to score the first touchdown for the Houston Texans taking on the Jacksonville London Jaguars.
31:31The last time we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. With CJ Stroud as his quarterback, he caught 14 touchdowns in 2022.
31:36The last game these two guys played together at the Ohio State University.
31:40Two tutties against Georgia in the college football playoff.
31:43I want to hate this so much. Dude, all I'm saying is he's going to have packages that are going to 100% be in the red zone.
31:51I was just about to say that. You know they're not going to care about like when they're on the 30 and
31:57they're running their second down package on the fourth play.
32:00No, it's going to just be like 20 red zone run out.
32:04You're 100% right about this. They're going to see.
32:07Stroud's going to run out of the huddle. It's going to be out wide, solidified, isolated X receiver.
32:12So look at Marvin. He's going to be like.
32:15Look at Marvin. It's going to be Travis Hunter lined up with him one-on-one.
32:19And I mean, the Texans want to look smart, right?
32:22They want to look like, yeah, we made the smart move and they want to make the Cardinals look dumb.
32:28So they're going to be like, we're going to get our guy touched out.
32:32And look, Marvin Harrison Jr., the last time he played in the Cardinals, he did catch touchdown back in week three.
32:38So yeah, I think that this is what he's actually done well at the NFL level.
32:43Like he scored eight touchdowns as a rookie. Like he's commanded a high target share of end zone targets throughout his NFL career.
32:49This is what he has been good at. And I think that's going to start here in week one.
32:55I think there's going to be like a precedent too, to like, let's get him a touchdown, right?
33:00Let's get all the good feels out, the good vibes, shroud the Ohio State, all that good stuff, especially against a rival like the Jaguars.
33:08Like this is a must win game for the Houston Texans or else they're going to fall to one in five because right now they're one in four.
33:16So they need this win. They got to upset the Jaguars.
33:19And hey, MHJ, I've seen crazier things. I love a narrative based first touchdown bet.
33:24Like that was my use check one. Like just give me a narrative to play around with the logic.
33:29And I'm, I'm just, I mean, sucker for it.
33:32It happened what? With the Jawan Johnson one back in week one, it was his birthday.
33:37So of course then we're going to get him a touchdown.
33:40I don't think any of our narratives have worked, but like only needs to work once for us to not shut the hell up about it.
33:48So then, and to be up. So we'll get there.
33:50I love it. I love it. I think yours is way more fun.
33:54Mine is just like, he keeps doing it. So clearly it's going to be Matthew golden in this one, but like all
34:01Watson doesn't do it, but yours is just so much.
34:04I mean, there's a reason why I didn't put Sturdivant as the first touchdown, because to your point, it's Watson and golden.
34:10Those guys both ranked top five in end zone targets this year.
34:14Cause when they get into the red zone, Ari Jordan love is just slinging the ball to all of these guys.
34:20So yeah, I think that, I mean, nothing would make me happier that on Sunday night football, Christian Watson scores the first touchdown.
34:27The next drive, Sturdivant, our guy scores the next touchdown.
34:30I mean, just give the, you know what? That's how I'm going to get my Sunday text from Erickson.
34:35I'll get my Sunday text from Erickson there. I won't get it from Jameer Gibbs, but I'm going to get it from Stu Devont or whatever.
34:43I do wonder what I, any ideas? I don't know what the J in his name stands for.
34:48It may just be J. Do you have any guesses for J.
34:52Michael Sturdivant? It also could just be J. James.
34:55James is like a pretty good, well, I mean, we could look it up here.
34:59No, I want to, I want to see what you might think.
35:03Oh yeah. You're going with James. I'm going to say James.
35:06Do you have a pick? I'll go with, uh, go with Joe.
35:09Let's see. Oh, it's J. You had to J.
35:12Michaels. I just went away from it. I don't know.
35:15His name might just be J too. It's like J.
35:18Michael Sturdivant. Let's see if we're going to find it.
35:21Well, now everyone's going to have to hang out with us.
35:24Seriously, sports reference should usually tell us, right? It should.
35:27Verifying. And there's nothing. It just says J. What's the J?
35:30Someone tell us the J. Okay. In the comments below, 35 of you can all say the same thing or look for the first person to do it.
35:39We need to know what the J is. That's all we're looking for.
35:42But yeah, I'm going to go with James. What did you, I'm sorry.
35:46What did you say? Joe. Joe. But I mean, his name just might, his first name might just be J.
35:52Michael. It didn't look like it was like J.
35:55Like it was an abbreviation. Like Michael's the middle name, which is okay.
35:59We're going to find out. You know what? The whole world's going to know when he scores his touchdown.
36:04Michael's my middle name. Is it? I was going to be named.
36:08I was told I was going to be named Michael and I wasn't.
36:12I was named Chris. And then you guys are done with it.
36:15Shut up. Shut up. Your name is Chris? I thought your name was Welsh.
36:19It's The. Actually, my legal name is The. And then it's Welsh.
36:23That's how it is. All right. You guys can't complain, by the way, because we gave you all the stuff.
36:29So you can't be like, hey, guys, shut up.
36:31Get to the bets. We did it. So you can go away if you want.
36:36We need to know what J is. And we learned that Erickson was Michael.
36:40I could have been a Michael. Are you? I don't know.
36:43Get your bets in. Let us know in the comments.
36:46Are you Michael? All right. We've devolved. This is late night prop betting.
36:50This is the best kind. Hopefully you guys enjoyed it.
36:53Ten prop bets. Four anytime touchdowns. Some first touchdowns.
36:56We'll see how we did last week. We'll see if the loopy betting show ends up being profitable.
37:01Shout out to Joe Madden and Scott Bogman last week holding it down.
37:05Shout out to you guys that were here for them and that you're here for us.
37:10Hopefully we are going to cash you guys some big stuff.
37:13Make sure you guys download the betting pros app.
37:15That is the way that you are going to be able to do all of the great stuff from tracking your bets better than any other place.
37:23You can check out all the stuff we talked about from the prop bet cheat sheet.
37:28You can get some personalized picks based on your history.
37:31You can get into the five star. I'm telling you go and explore it.
37:35Don't even just listen to me. Go and explore it for yourself.
37:39Betting pros dot com slash app. Go and download that today.
37:42That is going to do it. We got to get out of here.
37:46Good luck in week six. Hopefully you guys make some money and we'll talk to you next week right here.
37:52I'm betting pros. That's Erickson. I'm Welsh. Bye, Michael.
37:54Peace out. Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast.
37:57If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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38:12This is Pat Fitzmaurice. I hope you enjoy this episode of the show, which is sponsored by Accredited Debt Relief.
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