0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:06It's week six of the NFL season where we start to see the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders in just about every single league.
0:14We're going to help you be the former because that's what we do here on this primer episode of the program featuring our favorite must-starts.
0:21I'm your host Seth Wilcock. He's Derek Brown and D-Bro.
0:25While it may be easier for you to write up the primer this week for teams on by, it certainly won't be
0:31easier setting those lineups or all making some sleeper start decisions.
0:35No, dude. I mean, you know, we're dealing with the bloodbath that is the injury reports on a weekly basis, plus cutting down good teams and available players.
0:44I mean, everything in between plus the volatility of what we've seen so far this NFL season.
0:49It's going to be very interesting. And on this episode, we got some deep polls on this episode.
0:55So if you're dealing with bye weeks and injuries and what have you, we might have some good starts this week for you.
1:02Kind of like journeying to the center of the earth.
1:05I don't know if you have run that one, but pretty good.
1:09I have been a minute, but I have. Not a bad little program there.
1:13Not a bad little program at all. As Derek noted, we're going to go deep.
1:18We're going to give you the must-start plays that are more of the sleeper variety from the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions.
1:26And before we get down to business, I just want to quickly thank everyone tuning into the program right here on the
1:33FantasyPros YouTube channel or the audio feed. We're closing in right now on 300,000 subscribers.
1:38We're trying to get there by the end of the NFL regular season when we can only get there with your help.
1:45So please give this video a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel if you're new.
1:50And let's go ahead and fire things up. We got the quarterback position up first where you're thinking one of these veteran
1:57journeymen are going to have a big day out there in the great state of New Jersey.
2:02Yeah, buddy. Yolo Jameis Winston has decided to reappear for this season.
2:06It's been wonderful. I mean, over the last two weeks, dude has been a top 12 quarterback in fantasy circles.
2:12So I think he can keep the momentum going.
2:15I mean, since week four, Jameis Winston has had the eighth most passing yards in all of the NFL, the 11th highest
2:22passer rating, and the fifth highest ADOT. So Yolo Winston is back, and I think we could definitely ride the heater going
2:29against the Saints secondary that's been quite god-awful. Seth?
2:32I mean, they're giving up the 10th most yards per attempt, the fourth highest passing success rate.
2:37And so in a game where I think there could be a lot of back and forth, I think this could be
2:44a quiet shootout because both these defenses, I'm not scared of them.
2:48And both these offenses we know could be high-flying if the matchup presents itself.
2:52So Winston, yeah, top 12 quarterback again this week, I think.
2:56Yeah, I don't hate the call. The Saints have certainly been in very susceptible defense.
3:00They only have one interception on the entire year.
3:03The guy who looked kind of dead to the world so far this season, he went 24 of 30, 229 yards, a
3:10touchdown, and 10 for 51 on the ground. It hasn't been like gaudy numbers the Saints have let up, right?
3:16No passer has gone over 250 yards, but they've just been efficient.
3:20And it feels like that's kind of the efficiency you're looking here out of Jameis Winston.
3:25And keep in mind, while it's not like a revenge narrative against the Saints, it was more like Dennis Allen and what
3:32he did to defy him in one of his last goes around there trying to get his ball.
3:38Boy, Jamal Williamson, the end zone one more time.
3:41Definitely maybe a little bit of Eaton Doves territory for Jameis Winston out here.
3:45How high would you go up? Are you playing him this week over the likes of CJ Stroud against Jacksonville in London?
3:52Is that a bridge too far? That's a little bit of a bridge too far, but I think we're on the right path here.
4:00And I will throw that out to everybody. Like just because everybody's got like if you're turning your nose up at James
4:06Jameis Winston this week, just realize he's been the QB eight and QB six and weekly fantasy scoring over the last two weeks.
4:14Yeah. So you're turning your nose up at a top 10 quarterback, top eight quarterback, but just heading to a fantasy pros
4:21ECR right now, I would be playing Jameis Winston over.
4:24You're playing Kirk cousins this week. I play Winston.
4:27I think Sprout is in the same kind of bucket.
4:30Rogers. Oh, Aaron Rodgers. Definitely. I play him over to Aaron Rogers, but I think we're living in like the high end
4:37QB two low end QB one type of area code where it's like, do you want to play James Winston or do
4:44you want to play Jalen hurts this week? I, I, I think Winston both has a very similar ceiling and the higher floor.
4:51So like I'd play Winston over Jalen hurts and I even like Jalen hurts this week.
4:56So. Yeah. Yeah. You you've been on that Hill, you know, standing tentos down this season.
5:01So excited to see if Winston can come to the rescue for some fancy managers this week.
5:06And Derek, we're going to go to the running back position where you have a play that I am absolutely in love with.
5:13I'm firing him up in all lines. I have some betting action down on him already.
5:19Who is it? Like corn, baby RB 30 right now.
5:22If he gets into the end zone again this week, we could see him being an RB two like he was last week.
5:29And yeah, so in a game where the Rams are heavily favored.
5:33So if they're going to score a ton of points, all of that's not going to Puka Nakua like, like last week,
5:40he's not getting another 20 plus freaking targets. Devontae Adams isn't going to score almost every single freaking touchdown.
5:46Corum got into the end zone last week and he could definitely do it again this week.
5:51And the Cardinals, their run defense has been terrible.
5:54Seth, they're giving up the 10th highest explosive run rate, the fourth most charge up to contact per attempt.
6:00And they're also bottom three in miss tackle rate.
6:03So all this says Blake Corum, if he gets 10 to 12 opportunities, then and he scores a touchdown, he's probably an RB two for the week.
6:11But there's also a world where we could be living in where Blake Corum does his best.
6:16Brian Robinson, Jr. Maybe in garbage time, he gets into the end zone twice this week.
6:21Like, I know that sounds aggressive, but the Rams are favored by more than 12 freaking points.
6:27The Cardinals run defense has got awful. At some point, the Rams could just say, look, we are absolutely beating the crap out of y'all.
6:35We're just going to run the ball and we're going to get out of here.
6:39And if that's the case, it's Blake Corum time.
6:42Yeah, I completely agree with you on this one.
6:45I'm already on the over nine and a half rushing attempts right now for my poly market prediction of the week.
6:52And I'm also considered trading right now to go after his rushing total because like no one can argue that Blake Corum hasn't looked good this season, right?
7:004.8 yards per carry. And also, Derek, I don't know.
7:04I'm sure you have noted this, but I don't know if the general public has.
7:08He right now is on pace this week to break his career high in receptions for an entire season.
7:14He's getting more dump off opportunities than ever. He almost had one wide open to the end zone last week for a
7:21touchdown, but Matthew Stafford missed him there in that primetime matchup.
7:25And I agree with you. I just think the issue is that he has not had the opportunity this season, right?
7:31The Rams have been in way more negative game scripts than anyone could have predicted, right?
7:36The only time they weren't was that Giants game where he got 12 carries for 79 yards.
7:42And the Cardinals, you mentioned how bad they've been against the running back position.
7:46Also, they've seen the most carries against running backs this season, 26.4 per game.
7:51And I just think they've got to lighten Kyron's load a little bit at some point.
7:56So why not here in a spot where we know Blake Corman has had success against the Cardinals?
8:01Last year, Derek, when he faced Arizona, he averaged 12.5 carries, 93.5 rushing yards per game in those two matchups.
8:08So I'm with you. Ten toes down on Blake Corman.
8:11I think he's maybe not an auto start, but it would be really like while I usually want my flexes to be
8:18wide receivers if I can over like some of these, you know, split backfield running backs.
8:23But this week, I'm firing up Corum over a lot of those receivers.
8:27I mean, but yeah, but look at look at ECR right now.
8:30Let's just play a would you rather right now?
8:33Okay. Okay. Bill or Blake Corum? Not close. Corum.
8:36J.K. Dobbins or Blake Corum? Corum. I don't want the Broncos offense.
8:40Amarian Hampson or Blake Corum? Oh, that one's probably O'Malley or probably Blake Corum.
8:44I just, you know, it's a tough defense against Kansas City.
8:48Damian Pierce or Blake Corum? Corum. I don't want Damian Pierce.
8:51Alvin Kamara or Blake Corum? Blake Corum. R.J. Harvey or Blake Corum?
8:55Blake Corum. Tony Pollard or Blake Corum? That one's close.
8:58That might be the line. Quinshawn Judkins or Blake Corum?
9:01To this point, you are hesitating right now. I just got all the way up to RB22 and ECR.
9:07Yeah. We're inside the top 24. Yeah. And we could go even higher.
9:11Yeah. Jeremiah Love or Blake Corum? Marshawn Lloyd or Blake Corum?
9:15Like, yeah. Woody Marks? Yeah, I'll take Corum. We are in low-end RB2 territory, Seth.
9:20Yeah. So it's not crazy. If anything, like, the rankings consortium is a little bit dismissive to Blake Corum this week.
9:26Yeah, I agree. I was expecting to see him a little bit higher in ECR.
9:31Same. I was very happy because it gets me a chance to talk about him on this show.
9:37Yeah, let's go. I appreciate that. Not too many times we get to find some just diamond in the rough running backs.
9:44But Blake Corum, if you've held on to him this long, and even if you have Kyron Williams on your team, too,
9:50don't be afraid to go some dull action. Rams running back here against the Arizona Cardinals.
9:55And, Derek, you were also getting invested from a receiver standpoint with one of the highest totals on the slate.
10:02It's a game that I think we see fireworks out in the Sin City for.
10:06Yeah. Khalil Shakir, wide receiver 37. We don't know what happens with DJ Moore and the Keon Coleman of all things this week.
10:14I kind of lean that DJ Moore is going to be out again, open the week with a DMP.
10:20But we'll see what his practice reports look like throughout the week.
10:23Khalil Shakir, man, quietly over 80 receiving yards in each of the last two games.
10:28And now, I mean, his per-route metrics have been quietly fantastic.
10:3218.8% target share, 2.37 yards per-route run. He's gotten five red zone targets.
10:36So I think the touchdown variance could come back this week as well as a 23.4% first read share.
10:42I think this is a really good game for not only Khalil Shakir, but I think we're getting the Dalton Kade game where he gets fed this week.
10:51So confidently starting both of these guys. And the Raiders, they have been weak against slot receivers, Seth.
10:56They're giving up the fifth most yards per target and the eighth most fantasy points per opportunity to the position.
11:02So if you're struggling for a flex with Khalil Shakir, if you're wondering, what the heck do I do with Dalton Kade?
11:09Because first two games, amazing. Looked like a league winner.
11:13Last three games, where is he? We don't know.
11:15Send out the search party. Joe Brady also going down Narrative Street has also come out and said, like, look, this is an on me thing.
11:24Dalton Kade, we're going to sit here and probably feature him more and get him more involved with the offense.
11:30So I think it's wheels up for Shakir and Kade this week.
11:34Yeah, they need them both, right? Because that passing offense last week against the Rams non-existent really took a lot of, you
11:41know, Josh Allen's on the ground just kind of thugging it out there.
11:45I think there's a lot of points in this game.
11:48I'm on the over 53 points flat, man. The Raiders top five in pace.
11:52They are really getting to the line quickly. And the Bills are 20th in pace, but they actually run the fifth fewest
11:59plays per game because they're scoring so quickly. Right.
12:02So, yeah, I just think it's such a back and forth game here.
12:06I want to be invested from a prop perspective in a lot of these players.
12:11And I also want to be invested from a fantasy perspective as well.
12:15Like, I'm firing everyone up from Kirk Cousins to Matt Gay in this one, right?
12:20Like, this is one I'm really, really excited about.
12:22Khalil Shakir definitely enters that conversation as well. Are they playing to on DJ Moore?
12:2723% right now. Again, this will become a little bit more accurate as the week progresses.
12:32But not looking great right now. We're going to keep it moving to the tight end position.
12:38But before we do, a reminder that you can take the guesswork out of your start-sit decisions with the Fantasy Pro Start-Sit Assistant.
12:45Instantly see your optimal lineup based on your roster, scoring settings, and advice from over 100-plus fantasy football experts, including downtown Derek Brown.
12:52You can even set your lineup with one click.
12:55Get started at fantasypros.com slash start-sit. Derek, we are going to the tight end position where it's been rough out there.
13:01We have found some value in certain plus matchups, and you're going to try to do the same thing once again with some pretty gross names here.
13:10Tyler Higby is not a gross name, sir. Thank you very much.
13:14Okay? Over the last two weeks, he has been tight end 12 and tight end 10.
13:19So he tied in one in weekly scoring. That is not a gross name, Seth.
13:23Thank you. But also, if we're going to talk about the Rams scoring a crap ton of points, also, Blake Corham is not scoring every single freaking touchdown.
13:32Norris, Pupinic, or Devontae Adams. The ball gets spread around some of the Rams.
13:37Tyler Higby has been a big part of the offense.
13:40Over the last two weeks, he's got 2.0 yards per route run.
13:44Arizona has been god-awful against tight ends, giving up the most yards per target and the third most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.
13:52Tyler Higby, I'm going to have him ranked as a top 12 tight end for the week.
13:57Wow. Yeah, I can understand. Why is it a wow?
14:00No, he's been a top 12 tight end each of the last two weeks.
14:04If we want to go even further back, the game was supposed to be a fur game.
14:10He destroyed that defense, too. So we got three weeks of sample, baby.
14:14No, I can understand that. And, like, I don't know if you remember if the memory goes back this far.
14:20But if you remember the Tyler Higbeast season back when I think that was 2019.
14:25Against consensus, I was like, I don't think that's coming back.
14:28And it didn't. Yeah, and in that season, some of his best games of his career came against the Cardinals, right?
14:35Like, obviously, this isn't the same. Cardinals have been the flow state for freaking tight ends.
14:40Half decade, dude. The flow chart, bro, for multiple years.
14:43Yeah. Yeah, half decade for sure. He's out there on the field a lot.
14:48Higby is. He's getting some of the targets, too.
14:50So I can't blame you here. Like, I was worried that maybe Colby Parkinson would start to kind of show his head
14:57here like he did a year ago. But that hasn't been the case so far.
15:02So I don't mind the play on Tyler Higby, especially for, you know, a tight end position right now that's just strapped
15:09for options with a lot of injuries and a lot of gross matchups out there.
15:14And you got another one here. You're trying to kind of placate to my, you know, Pittsburgh Steelers fandom, I think.
15:20What do you got here on this one? All right.
15:23So I'm going to ask everybody to buckle up.
15:26We're about to go deep down the statistical analytical coverage data rabbit hole.
15:30Okay. So everybody just strap in. Follow me. Follow me through this.
15:34Pat Freiermuth is one of the most popular sleeper streamer tight ends out there.
15:39Scored two touchdowns last week. So I think everybody is going to gravitate to possibly playing him this week.
15:44If you have a Sam Laporta that's on by.
15:47You have a Mike Gusecki that you've been playing the roller coaster with.
15:51The coverage data leans much more in favor of Darnell Washington this week than Pat Friar Meuth.
15:57If you look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they have the second highest rate of single high coverage at 65.2% of their defensive snaps.
16:04You look at Darnell Washington this year. He leads the team with a 25% target per route run rate and 2.0 yards per route run against single high.
16:13You look at since 2025. He leads the team still even more than DK Metcalf and target per route run rate with 26%.
16:20Also while turning in 2.1 yards per route run.
16:23This is over 140 route sample for Darnell Washington.
16:26So not only just this week or excuse me, this season, but also last season as well.
16:31Also in that sample, again, going back to the single high coverage of it all.
16:36Pat Friar Meuth against single high coverage. He has only a 12% target per route run rate, 0.880 yards per route run this season.
16:44Those splits for Pat Friar Meuth and Darnell Washington, again, going back to it, hold up not only this season, but last season as well.
16:52Massive Grand Canyon size splits for these two tight ends and how the Pittsburgh Steelers have been deploying them.
16:58Not only under McCarthy's watch, but also going back to last season.
17:01Then you look at how just the matchup against this defense outside of coverage.
17:06Tampa Bay has given up the sickest, the second highest missed tackle rate to opposing receivers.
17:11So that's wide receivers and tight ends as well as the seventh most yak per reception.
17:16Seth, you're a Steelers fan. Tell me what is Darnell Washington's game predicated around?
17:20Put the ball in his hands and let the big man go break tackles amongst all tight ends right now.
17:26I think it's either 70 routes. All tight ends with at least 70 routes run this season.
17:32Darnell Washington, third in yak per reception, first leading all tight ends in that sample in missed tackles, forced per reception.
17:38Regardless of however I turn the data, the data looks at it and says, okay, this is Darnell Washington week.
17:45This is not Brett Fryermuth week. Maybe Fryermuth gets in the end zone and saves his day.
17:50But I'm on Washington is going to have a surprise game here, dude.
17:54He's been a tight end one already once this season.
17:57I think he could do it again this week.
18:00Now tell me, am I crazy? I don't think it's a crazy play, especially like the Steelers need to get more out of him personally.
18:08Like, I mean, we're paying him like he's a top 10 player on our team.
18:13I don't think he's quite there. And I've kind of been in the camp.
18:17Like, I don't know why we've paid him so much.
18:20Like, he's a beast of a blocker. He seems like a great, you know, locker room type of guy.
18:26And he is a threat in the red zone.
18:29We saw that a couple weeks ago when the Steelers were trailing the Browns.
18:34And it was three straight passes from Aaron Rodgers going into the end zone and just trying to pick on some of
18:40these, you know, undersized cornerbacks and linebackers who are matched up against Darnell Washington in the end zone.
18:46So if that's the play here, I can totally understand it.
18:50From a prop perspective, like, do you think it's more the yards that push him over 20 and a half receiving yards right now is I've already bet.
18:58Do you like two and a half receptions who are just the yards more?
19:03I think you can put, you can bet both.
19:06I feel much better about the receiving yardage only because with his, after the catch ability, it takes one catch.
19:12But, uh, what's his anytime touchdown line right now, Seth?
19:15Oh, four to one right now. See that, that's where I think you're getting the real value because you're the over receiving yardage is minus money.
19:23Bet the anytime touchdown mark for him because he's getting red zone usage.
19:27Like I said, and if he, if the coverage again, like with the coverage I just talked about, if he has a
19:34higher route share and they just run more 12, because the other thing about this, Roman Wilson is hurt.
19:40This is not a good coverage matchup for Jeremy Bernard.
19:43So I think you're going to see a lot of 12 personnel in this game.
19:48So Washington who in for the season right now, Seth only has like, he's got a 65% snap rate, but he's been
19:55playing as a, basically another offensive lineman for a lot of the season with only a 35% route share.
20:01If that tilts more in his favor and he's a 65% snap player this week, but he's got a 60% route share.
20:08That's where we really start to see him cook this week.
20:11Okay. Well, Darnell Washington, he's available out there right now in leagues for free.
20:16So go up and pick them up, put them in your lineups.
20:20If you need an option right there at the T E position, Derek, great stuff as always here, man, that's going to
20:26do it for us right here on this primer episode of the FantasyPros, fancy football podcast.
20:32Comment down below your favorite week, six must start players.
20:35And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel.
20:40If you're new for downtown, Derek Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock.
20:43Take care of y'all. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros, fantasy football podcast.
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