0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com, or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. Hello everybody, welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
0:10I'm Ryan Warmly, joined for this short form video by Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown.
0:14Fellas, we are talking some rookies today. The three of us did a lot of talks about rookies throughout spring and summer,
0:21but here we are in redraft season thinking about them not from the dynasty perspective, but from the redraft perspective.
0:28Just a reminder for everybody that all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at FantasyPros.com.
0:34I also just want to reference that we're going to be talking about rankings and ADP on the show.
0:39We're going to be using real-time ADP, which is a really cool tool at Fantasy Pros that shows you where these players
0:46are actually going right now, not just the overall, sometimes outdated ADP.
0:50Derek Brown, can you tell us a little bit more about why real-time ADP is so valuable?
0:55I mean, just for the reasons you stated, Worm, I mean, if you're using real-time ADP, which you can find at FantasyPros.com
1:02slash real ADP, you're getting real updates and stuff and you're able to see, like, one of the most valuable parts of
1:09this is you're able to see the trend lines.
1:12In the last 24 hours in the last week, if you've got drafts coming up or multiple during a week, you get to see where guys are going.
1:21Like, are they trending? Is the guy flying up the board?
1:24So, like, okay, I'm drafting on ESPN or Yahoo or Sleeper, where have you?
1:29You get to see, like, okay, maybe I should take this guy, maybe a few picks before ADP and stuff like that
1:36because this is what is happening currently in drafts.
1:38Yeah, it fits. It's really helpful, too, with, like, if an injury happens, you can see, okay, not what are these ADPs from before.
1:46But in the last 24 hours after this injury news comes out, you know, Ricky Pearsall is out for the year.
1:53Okay, so now where are people drafting Mike Evans and Dijon Stribling and whoever it is you're talking about?
1:58So that real – it is up to the minute.
2:02It's why they call it real-time. Yeah, it does a great job of reflecting the camp news and tracking the changes that
2:09– because the sharpest fantasy managers in every league are right on top of the training camp news.
2:14And ADP, real-time ADP is reflecting that. Yeah, so I just wanted to mention that since I think it's such a great
2:21tool, and we will be talking about ADP today.
2:24That's what we're referring to is real-time ADP. Let's get to the early to mid-round rookies here.
2:29You guys have got one each. Derek Brown, we'll start with you.
2:33Which rookie do you want to talk about? First guy is Carnell Tate, man.
2:37I love him this year. Wide receiver 31, 74th overall in real-time ADP.
2:41There's a runout where he is Malik Nabors of this offense this year, and it's not difficult to see why.
2:48Like, Wando Robinson's going to get his targets. Calvin, really, what do we even get?
2:52Can he stay healthy at this point? But like Carnell Tate, the talent is real.
2:57He went really high in the draft, exactly where I thought he should have gone.
3:0210th in yards per route run, 4th in receiving grade.
3:05A player that was used downfield a whole lot at Ohio State, but he can threaten a defense at all three levels.
3:12Amazing route runner. He's really strong at the catch point.
3:15Like, finished college with an otherworldly 68.8% contested catch rate.
3:18And also for being a downfield receiver in his final season, 14.6 ADOT.
3:22Had zero drops, guys. Like, he truly profiles for me.
3:25And I know this kind of got talked about a lot during the pre-draft process.
3:30Can he be a wide receiver one of an offense?
3:33I think he absolutely can be. Yeah, Derek Brown, you referenced neighbors.
3:37And I know you did that because of Brian Dayball as the play caller.
3:41To me, the rookie that I would compare him to more, though, is last year, Ted O'Reilly and McMillan.
3:47Just in terms of the narrative, I feel—I'm not saying as a player, but just a narrative I feel around him.
3:54And, like, there are some people who are like, maybe he isn't as good as the draft capital would suggest.
4:00I feel like we heard some stuff about that with McMillan a year ago.
4:04Going in similar ranges as a rookie to him.
4:07You know, neighbors, everybody was really certain was a very good player.
4:11I feel like there was maybe a little more uncertainty with both Tate and Tett.
4:16And to me, that's the comp that I really like.
4:19And, by the way, McMillan outplayed where he was going in drafts as a rookie.
4:24To your point. And I would expect similar from Tate.
4:27Fitz, for you, Tate, I mean, wide receiver 30.
4:30Is that too high, too low or just right?
4:32I think it's pretty close to being just right.
4:35I'm a little bit lower just because I want to see him be an alpha receiver for Tennessee.
4:41I just, we don't know if he can be that.
4:44Obviously, he had to play with Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State last year.
4:48So, it's hard to be an alpha receiver when you're playing with maybe the best wide receiver prospect we've seen in the last decade.
4:56But, yeah, I just, I think he's going to be a fantastic big play guy.
5:00We know he is a ball winner. He just comes down with contested catches.
5:05Whether he can be the complete package, that remains to be seen.
5:08So, yeah, to put a bow on the Tate conversation, I would just say, like, I don't know where he will finish this year.
5:16But I just feel pretty confident it will be higher than 30th.
5:20Like, I'm not sure where the right place is to actually rank him.
5:24But it just feels like another one of those, this is the cheapest he's going to be for the next few years in redraft leagues.
5:32And, like I said, maybe he's not going to finish as wide receiver 8.
5:36Or, you know, I think neighbors, to use that reference again, was wide receiver 6 or something in that rookie season.
5:43He's not going to be that. But, like, he'll be better than wide receiver 30.
5:47This feels like a value to me. Fitz, I was going to say, you know, let's go to the next receiver here.
5:54We're actually talking about all receivers today. That wasn't on purpose.
5:58It just happens. I think it's reflective of the class and where the strengths are.
6:02So, every rookie we're talking about actually does happen to be a receiver.
6:06So, who is the next rookie receiver that you're talking about?
6:10It's Jordan Tyson. And just the other day, I moved Jordan Tyson past Colonel Tate in my redraft rankings.
6:16Now I might have to move him right back down since today, on Thursdays we record this, reports that Tyson left the
6:23practice field with some sort of hamstring injury. Maybe an initial report that it's not that serious.
6:28But we know that all hamstring injuries are concerning.
6:31So, as we await further news on that. So, if it's not a major injury and it's something where they just shut
6:38him down for the rest of camp in the preseason.
6:41I guess I just feel a little bit better about Kellen Moore's offense in New Orleans than I do about Brian Dable's offense in Tennessee.
6:49Like, we know that Kellen Moore is going to push the pace.
6:53That means more offensive plays, which means more chances for players to score fantasy points.
6:57We know that Tyler Shuck is willing to push the ball downfield.
7:01Shuck averaged 8.2 air yards per pass attempt last year, according to Pro Football Reference.
7:06That was a greater average depth of throw than Dak Prescott has had in any of his last three seasons.
7:12And we know Dak isn't shy about challenging defenses downfield.
7:15So, it sounds like, at least up until the hamstring injury, Tyson had been having a really good camp, putting on a route running clinic down in Metairie.
7:24Did I pronounce that correctly? No, you did. Metairie?
7:27You landed the plane there, Patty. Love it. Right.
7:29And, you know, the Saints should have a pretty skinny target tree this year.
7:34Chris Alave, Jordan Tyson, Juwan Johnson, probably the only receivers and tight ends who are going to earn meaningful targets.
7:40So, I wouldn't be surprised if he can stay healthy, which kind of an issue for him in college and, unfortunately, kind of an issue for him now.
7:49I wouldn't be surprised if Tyson got to 1,000 yards as a rookie.
7:53I was going to bring that up. D-Bro, are you, like, extra nervous about the hamstring stuff today just because the injury
8:00history was such a big talking point for Tyson during the draft process?
8:04Yeah, I mean, it's been a talking point throughout the entirety of the draft process, but also, like, during rookie camp, during
8:11the early parts of training camp, like, he wasn't participating and stuff.
8:15So, yeah, like, I've got a lot of concerns about Tyson, but, again, pointing back to real-time ADP, if you have drafts coming up, this is updated.
8:23You're able to live see this, like, as he moves down boards and understand, okay, well, this is what's happened over the last 24 hours, the last week.
8:32I have a draft next week or maybe this weekend, so can I wait on Jordan Tyson with this news?
8:38And I understand, like, based off of where you're drafting, he's in the top 40 wide receivers.
8:43Maybe he falls past that, and he's a value for you.
8:47Yeah, it's funny. His trend in the last 24 hours is actually moving up amongst the rankings.
8:52We don't go quite as small as the last 24 minutes.
8:56Otherwise, we might see it go down a little bit.
8:59But, yeah, keep an eye on where that sort of settles with the latest news and just kind of where the news goes from here.
9:07On that, Debra, besides the injury, do you agree, though, with the upside here with Tyson in terms of a year-one impact?
9:14Oh, I absolutely agree with the upside for everything that Fitzy laid out.
9:18Like, I still, even though, like, with this news, I did move him back down a little, like, a few spots versus some other wide receiver threes.
9:26But I've still got him as a top 36 wide receiver.
9:30Now, if this comes out, like, this is going to be a multi-week problem and things like that, then, yes, I will push him further down the ranks.
9:38But right now, as I'm projecting this, like, if he's healthy walking into week one, then I think that looking at how
9:45Fitzy is talking about this offense, just how it's put together, it's going to run through Jordan Tyson and Chris Alave.
9:52And for everything that Fitzy laid out there, like, yeah, I think the Saints are going to be a top 12 passing rate team this year.
10:00So he's a wide receiver three that you could draft.
10:03That could be, when we flip over the cards at the end of the year, a wide receiver two.
10:09D-Bro, let's stick with you for the mid to late rookies we want to talk about.
10:14Who do you have here? Casey Katsepsiung, baby. Wide receiver 50, 137th overall in real-time ADP.
10:19Like, I think I could make you an easy case of draft him or Denzel Boston or just draft both, man.
10:26But, like, Casey, I think he is the favorite when projecting out this passing attack to be the Cleveland Browns wide receiver one.
10:33He's wide receiver 50, so, like, where he's going in drafts is absolutely crazy cheap.
10:38And if we just get league average quarterback play, like, I know that feels like a insane stretch with Deshaun Watson and Shadur Sanders.
10:45But if Shadur takes a step in his year two season, it might not be that crazy.
10:50And the talent is there for Casey Katsepsiung. Like, two of his last three collegiate seasons, top 36 in the FBS and yak per reception.
10:58Oh, wow, he did that. Like, last year his ADOT was over 12.
11:02So, to produce that type of yak, like, all the talking points in pre-draft was, Casey is talented.
11:08He's good, but is he that good? Can he be a number one wide receiver?
11:13I was always convicted that he can be. And everybody's like, oh, but he, people talked about him like he was tragically born without hands, man.
11:21Like, he cannot catch the freaking football. And all he's done in training camp has been highlight reel catch, out, out, away
11:28from his body catch, body control in the air, just clip after clip after clip.
11:32And so, I don't have any worries about that.
11:35So, yes. Like, I love Casey Katsepsiung for where he's going in drafts and the upside that he presents.
11:41Even if it's an offense that, you know, I feel like people are kind of picking and choosing their battles.
11:47They're like, we don't like any of the wide receivers here, but nobody has a problem with Quishon Judkins as a top
11:5424 running back or Harold Fan as a top 12 wide tight end.
11:58But then they're pushing the wide receivers down. It's like, okay, fine.
12:02I'll just take the value. Fitz, do you have a preference between Casey Concepcion, Denzel Boston, neither or both in your drafts?
12:09How are you sort of approaching this rookie receiver room in Cleveland?
12:13I think both might be values in redraft, you know.
12:16So, I would be willing to take either, both getting really good camp buzz.
12:20And the only thing is with the quarterback situation, what it is for Cleveland, I think you're probably better off with the
12:27short area receiver than the downfield ball winner among those two receivers, and that's Concepcion.
12:32Yeah. Fitz, we have talked about sort of the two of the big three rookie receivers in rookie drafts already.
12:38And Tate and Tyson, you've got Lemon as your next pick here.
12:42So, kind of rounding out that top three, just going a little bit later than the other two.
12:48Yeah. And I've got the all hamstring team here with Jordan Tyson.
12:51Oh, I didn't realize that. I. Yeah. And I.
12:54So, right now, Makai Lemon's real-time ADP is wide receiver 44, 115th overall.
12:58I'm pretty well above that wide receiver 39, and that's with a hamstring adjustment.
13:03So, the disrespectful real-time ADP may have something to do with that injury.
13:07And certainly not ideal that a rookie trying to learn and fit into his team's offense is losing these valuable training camp reps.
13:14But I thought I saw that Lemon had been doing some jogging and catching passes from a jugs gun.
13:20So, hopefully, he's close to a return. The Eagles traded up for Makai Lemon in the first round.
13:26The Eagles no longer have A.J. Brown. The Eagles no longer have Kevin Patillo as their offensive coordinator.
13:31So, I'm not sure why there isn't more excitement about the potential upside for a first-round pick who was deemed to be
13:38the best receiver in college football last year. Makai Lemon won the Bolitnikoff Award.
13:43He averaged better than three yards per route run against both man and zone defense last year.
13:48Lemon runs good routes. He has insanely good hands, and I would urge anyone who has questions about his hands, go watch the USC-Iowa film from last year.
13:57He made some insane catches in that game. Lemon is really dangerous after the catch.
14:01And yet, this real-time ADP is two spots lower than the Denver Broncos defense right now.
14:06So, I have a feeling I'm going to be drafting a lot of Makai Lemon in the coming weeks.
14:12Do you think—this is probably a dumb question, Fitz— Do you think that any of his current ranking in ADP is, like,
14:19just thinking about the Eagles and drafting, you know, Jalen Rager?
14:23And, like—because you have mentioned before, like, oh, the best GM in football traded up for this guy.
14:28He has picked poor receivers in this range before.
14:31Do you think that's at all part of this?
14:34Or is it just strictly the injury that's keeping him—his cost down?
14:38I think it might— It's pretty good. Just saying.
14:40Devontae Smith is pretty good. But I also don't know that there's necessarily going to be a huge production gap between, like,
14:47a healthy Makai Lemon and Devontae Smith. Like, Devontae Smith, one of the best route runners in the NFL.
14:53No question about that. But Lemon, really good in his own right.
14:57Did a fantastic Amon Ross St. Brown impersonation at USC last year.
15:01So, yeah, I mean, I think it's probably partly to do with the fact that Tate and Tyson were top 10 picks.
15:08And Lemon was, what, 21st overall outside the top 20?
15:11So a little bit of a gap in draft capital, a little bit the hamstring injury, maybe just a little bit that
15:18people seem kind of down on the Philly passing game in general.
15:22Debra, I was just going to say, you've always been high on Jalen Hurts, the player.
15:27So I assume that Lemon kind of is carried up with that as well.
15:31Oh, yeah, dude. And looking at real-time ADP, to Fitzy's point, I think a lot of this is the hamstring issue.
15:38Because, again, talking about the trend lines over the last week, he's dropped by 10 spots in drafts.
15:43And I've still got him above that. Like, wide receiver 44, like Fitzy said, in real-time ADP.
15:49Like, I've got Lemon at wide receiver 38 right now.
15:52And I think, yeah, is the hamstring concerning about, like, you know, hit the ramp up, like, being there for install, learning the offense?
15:59Sure. When you're drafting a guy as a wide receiver 4 in drafts, you're, like, in a lot of instances, okay, fine.
16:06You play a 3 wide receiver league, then you go 0 RB, then he hits your spot at a flex.
16:12But if you're going balanced approach, running back heavy, what have you, all that kind of stuff, then you're not counting on
16:19that guy to be a starter for you in a lot of different aspects.
16:24And we're not playing for the beginning of the season with a lot of the rookies we draft.
16:29You're playing for what this guy can do down the back half of the season, the stretch, when he's acclimated to the
16:36freaking offense, which all of that upside is still there for Makai Lemon.
16:40You took the words out of my mouth. I was just going to say, you're drafting Lemon for the second half of the season.
16:48Yes. Not week one or two. Yes. All right.
16:51Before we get to the last one, if you want to dominate your draft this season, practice before you're on the clock with the draft simulator.
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17:11All right, guys, we decided to have you sort of agree on one late round flyer, although this is definitely more of
17:18a Debro pick than a Fitz pick. Fitz was on board, but this is more Debro's guy of the two.
17:24So Derek Brown, we'll start with you. Why is Dijon stripling the pick here as a late round flyer?
17:30I just think where he's going in drafts, a wide receiver 56, 144th overall in real-time ADP could be a really, really
17:37good value because it's just cheap access to what could be a top five, top 10 scoring offense this year.
17:44And I know, you know, substation be damned, but like all the stuff about like injuries and things of that nature, stripling's already back in practice.
17:52He's practicing, so I'm not worried about his injury risk right now.
17:55Final two collegiate seasons, 2.15, 2.44 yards per outrun.
17:58Do I think that based off of his prospect profile, he should have been drafted as high as he did in the NFL draft?
18:06No. Does it still like, do I still like the landing spot and what he could provide?
18:11Like, because Christian Kirk, I don't think can stay healthy or be effective at this point in his career.
18:17Ricky Pearsall is already out. But Debo also, like, as the volume piles up and he's, like, bouncing off of players in
18:24the second level of defenses this year, can he stay healthy?
18:27Can Mike Evans stay healthy? Although I like Debo and Mike Evans where they're going in drafts.
18:33But again, it's just cheap access to what we still think is going to be an offense that puts up a crap ton on touchdowns.
18:41And even though I didn't like him a ton as a prospect, the upside's not baked into where he goes in drafts.
18:48It's really just more the risk and the downside at wide receiver 56.
18:52And Fitz, you know, I do want to get your opinion on Stribbling and feel free to push back a little.
18:58Obviously, you agreed on this being the flyer here, but I think it's worth mentioning, like, the reasons why you are a little bit lower.
19:06The other point, though, and you made this point when we were planning out the show, is the other names you're talking
19:13about in this range, like Cyrus Allen, Jacoby Lane.
19:16These are guys who went way later in the drafts who are in very different situations.
19:21So it's still easy to point to Stribbling as a flyer, even if you didn't love him so much as a player.
19:28Yeah. Really, my only issue with Stribbling is that he didn't lead Ole Miss in either catches or yardage last season.
19:34Harrison Wallace III did, and Trey Wallace is an undrafted free agent.
19:38I think he's in camp with the Cardinals. So I always just, I'm going to be inherently skeptical of a rookie receiver
19:45who didn't earn a meaty share of the target's receptions or receiving yardage for his college team.
19:50But, like, Stribbling could absolutely win me over in the preseason.
19:54I realize the Ricky Pearsall injury has created a really nice opportunity for Stribbling to contribute in year one, and it probably
20:01isn't a bad thing for Stribbling that most of the other pass catchers in the 49ers offense are pretty old by NFL standards.
20:08Mike Evans, George Kittle, Debo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey. And Stribbling, you know, whether we thought he should have been or not, was an early second-round pick.
20:16And a lot of people feel he was grossly overdrafted, but there was some draft buzz around Stribbling before he was picked that early.
20:23I agree, too, Fitzy. My pre-draft rankings, I actually had Harrison Wallace ranked ahead of him based off of, like, prospect profile, how I liked them.
20:32I was surprised he went undrafted, and I think we were all surprised Stribbling went as high as he did.
20:38So what we're saying is our real flyer is Wallace?
20:41That's what we're settling on, just to be sure.
20:44Sure, yeah. Taxi Squads, Dynasty. Yeah, there we go.
20:47All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there, keeping it short today.
20:51Thanks, everybody, for checking out our rookies that the experts are drafting.
20:55For Fitz and Debro, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time.
20:59Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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