We Plant Our Flags on These 9 Must-Draft Fantasy Football Players! (Ep. 2121)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
34 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 9, 2026
Published
Sun, August 9, 2026
12
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh DownsAlec PierceChristian WatsonDeVonta SmithJameson WilliamsJavonte WilliamsJayden ReedKyler MurrayMichael PittmanStefon DiggsZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeInjury20:34
Alec Pierce's status is uncertain due to an ankle injury and a strange training camp, making his availability for the start of the season questionable.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue25:02
Derek Brown ranks Watson as his WR20 (43rd overall), well ahead of his WR29 ADP. Brown expects Watson to see a significant increase in route share with other receivers gone, noting that Watson has been ultra-efficient on a per-route basis (4th in yards per route run last year) whenever healthy. He is a priority target in the 5th or 6th round.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveBreakout13:45
Alfredo Brown ranks Smith as his WR10, targeting him in the third round. With A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert potentially seeing touchdown regression, Smith is poised for more scoring opportunities. The addition of OC Sean Mannion, who emphasizes pre-snap motion, should help get Smith open more frequently, mirroring the breakout potential seen in similar high-target receivers.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveUsage19:09
Pat Fitzmaurice highlights Williams' late-season surge, noting he was the WR9 in half-PPR from week 10 onward after Dan Campbell took over play-calling. With a new OC, Drew Petsing, likely mandated to find creative ways to get Williams the ball, he could see 7-7.5 targets per game, potentially reaching 1,200-1,300 yards in a high-scoring Lions offense.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue7:12
Derek Brown ranks Williams as his RB10 (19th overall), significantly higher than his RB16 ADP. Despite touchdown variance and a late-season injury, Williams was the RB8 in points per game through weeks 1-8 and ranked 3rd in yards after contact per attempt. Brown views the 2023 passing game inefficiency as an outlier and expects a bounce-back season in a high-powered offense.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeValue21:53
The source questions why Jaden Reed is being drafted or ranked ahead of Josh Downs, noting that Downs has a clearer path to playing in two-wide receiver sets.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveUsage20:42
Shane Steichen intends to increase Josh Downs' involvement across all personnel groupings. Downs consistently earns high targets per route run, comparable to elite young receivers like Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, but has been limited by low usage in 12 personnel.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper30:10
Alfredo Brown ranks Downs as his WR38, targeting him in the ninth round as a high-upside sleeper. Despite previous usage limitations and inconsistent QB play, Downs showed WR2 production when paired with Joe Flacco. With Shane Steichen explicitly stating a need to get Downs more involved, he is a prime candidate to outperform his WR42 ADP.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue24:55
Kyler Murray is a terrific value at QB17. Despite a down year last season, he has a history of QB1 finishes and is now in a high-upside environment with Kevin O'Connell and a strong receiving corps.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveProjection20:26
Michael Pittman Jr. was tied for the WR16 in fantasy points per game through 13 weeks last year before his injury, proving he can be highly productive in the Colts' offense.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue26:22
Stefan Diggs is a value pick in round 10 or later. Despite a limited route share last year, he remained elite in efficiency metrics like yards per route run and separation. With a likely increased role in Washington, he should easily return WR3 production.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection1:48
Pat Fitzmaurice ranks Flowers as WR13, four spots above consensus, noting he managed 1,211 yards on a 29% target share despite the Ravens having the fewest pass attempts in the NFL over the last three years. With a potential uptick in passing volume and a possible increase in red zone usage under new OC Declan Doyle, Flowers has top-five upside; he is a consistent target at the 3-4 turn.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:21Welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast. Today, we are planting some flags on some players.
0:269 must-draft players in your Fantasy Football Drafts. I'm Alfredo Brown, joined by Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown.
0:32And gentlemen, today we're going to look at some players that we are consistently targeting.
0:37And it's not just the players that we like.
0:39These are the players when we say they are must-draft.
0:42It's the guys that we say, hmm, they might fall to me later, but I got to take them a little bit earlier.
0:49I'm going to take them ahead of ADP, players we are consistently doing that with.
0:54I thought it would be a quick one today.
0:57So we're going to rapid fire through these, looking at the early rounds, rounds one through four.
1:02Pat Fitzmaurice, who is a player in these early rounds that you are targeting at pretty much all costs?
1:08Zay Flowers. Flowers had 86 catches for 1,211 yards and five touchdowns last season.
1:12Also had one rushing touchdown, so six TDs total.
1:15The Ravens are coming off a season, Alfredo, in which they threw 422 passes, fewest of any NFL team in the last three years.
1:22And Zay Flowers still managed to go over 1,200 yards at a 29% target share, a 36.9% share of the Ravens receiving yardage.
1:29Look, the Ravens are going to be run heavy again.
1:32They have Lamar Jackson at quarterback. They have Derrick Henry at running back.
1:36But there's likely to be at least a small uptick in passing volume from, you know, ranking 96th out of 96 teams
1:43over the last three years in pass attempts. The Ravens did draft a couple of receivers.
1:47Jacoby Lane in the third round, Elijah Surratt in the fourth round.
1:51Interesting prospects. Neither is likely to be a high-volume pass catcher as a rookie.
1:55And there were rumors that the Ravens might be in on either Stephon Diggs or Debo Samuel.
2:01They did not sign either guy. Isaiah likely left in free agency.
2:04Zay Flowers should once again have a big target share in this offense.
2:08And yes, touchdown production has been kind of lacking for Flowers.
2:11He's never scored more than six in a single season.
2:15He's had six, four, and six in his three NFL seasons.
2:18So it's mainly about Flowers not getting many red zone targets.
2:21Just 10 last year, just 30 for his career.
2:24But what if the Ravens' new offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle, increases Zay Flowers' usage in the red zone just a bit?
2:30Like he's 5'9", 183 pounds. Zay Flowers is not going to be used on a bunch of end zone fades.
2:36But maybe he gets a little bit of a dead cat bounce here in red zone targets.
2:42Gets him a few more TDs. Isaiah Flowers ranked wide receiver 13, four spots above consensus.
2:46And I have been doing some redraft drafts already, some analysts drafts.
2:50I keep getting drawn to the turn, like 111, 112.
2:53I've been getting Zay at the 3-4 turn every time.
2:56And that's a really comfortable place for me to take him.
3:00He usually does go wide receiver 17. I feel like I'm getting value there.
3:04Every time. Every time I see him in that spot, I am trying to get Zay Flowers.
3:09Debo, really quick, I know you also like Zay Flowers.
3:12Anything you want to add there? I mean, I'm ahead of consensus on him.
3:16I got him at wide receiver 13 as well.
3:19I've got Zay Flowers right now at 28th overall.
3:22But, I mean, I think, like, you could take him to the back end of round two.
3:27And I honestly wouldn't bat an eye even there.
3:30I mean, I think, like, all we're talking about is touchdowns go his way this year.
3:35He goes from that 110s, 120 target mark. There's an easy way where this offense is just league average and passing rate.
3:41And we see Zay Flowers see, like, 130 plus, 140 targets.
3:45And if all that happens, I mean, Erickson's been absolutely tooting the horn on this as well.
3:50So I know we're all on concert on this.
3:53But Zay Flowers has top five upside this year.
3:55He does. I'm with you. I think I'm the most irresponsibly high on Zay Flowers.
4:00I've got it wide receiver 11 right now. Oh, I love it.
4:03I love it. Wow. Yeah, I think we're there, man.
4:07We finished as wide receiver 12 last year. And I mean, there's some guys that are a lot of people are taking
4:13ahead of him that are due for some regression that I think if we see everything go the way it's supposed to
4:20for the Ravens, Zay Flowers in this offense is going to look totally different.
4:24So I love this pick by you, Pat. Debro, let's hear your guy that is a must draft for you in rounds one to four.
4:32I'm going to go with the guy that I feel like is the ugly duckling of this show.
4:37Javante Williams. He's disrespected in ranks and everything considering what he did last year.
4:41Like you're looking at real time ADPs, RB 16, 34th overall.
4:45I've got him as a top 12 running back because I'm putting respect on his freaking name because that's what he was last year.
4:52I've got him at RB 10 pulling on my overall ranks.
4:55I've got him in 19th overall, but I think you could take him in the second round.
5:01I'm willing to go that high, but you don't have to.
5:04You could take him in the third round and get a ton of exposure to him as the RB 11 and fantasy points per game.
5:12Everybody categorizes him as a dead zone back. Okay, but the dead zone back that was 16th in explosive run rate last
5:18year, third best in yards after contact per attempt.
5:21Before the touchdown variance went sideways for him in weeks one through eight, Javante Williams was the RB eight in fantasy points per game.
5:28He scored nine total touchdowns over that stretch. That's not an insane clip.
5:32If he had kept up that type of production, again, maybe more respect to be put on his name in drafts, but it's not happening.
5:40Weeks nine through 17 last year, the touchdowns fell off.
5:43The efficiency didn't move. The volume didn't really move.
5:46He was dinged up down the back half of last year and he scored only four touchdowns during that stretch.
5:52If he did kept up the touchdown scoring and he's still locked inside of one of the best offenses in the entire freaking NFL.
5:59No, I'm not worried about Malik Davis. Everybody wants to hype Jaden blue like they did last off season.
6:05Jane blue wasn't a part of this freaking offense last year.
6:08He's going to get some work probably this year, but a detriment to Javante Williams another year away from the catastrophic injury.
6:15Now, I'm not worried about it. I'm drafting Javante Williams with confidence.
6:19Pat, how do you feel about Javante Williams here?
6:21Debro's got an RB 10 ADP has been RB 16.
6:24I'm a little bit closer to ADP on this.
6:27I've got him at running back 17. My main issue, it's not so much with picking Javante himself.
6:33He just goes in a range of the draft where I tend to like the wide receivers more than the running backs.
6:39He is set up in a very good spot for 2026.
6:43Again, fantastic offense. Very good offensive line that's had no turnover, I think, with personnel.
6:47He could have another double digit touchdown season. I always worry about any analysis that starts with, like, who else is going to get carries?
6:55Because, like, even when it seems like there is no one else to get carries, someone winds up getting carries.
7:01And a lot of times that's where I go awry.
7:04And I guess I'm a little bothered that he was so inefficient as a pass catcher last year.
7:09Like, I just don't think that's an area of strength for him, nor are the Cowboys incentivized to throw to Javante Williams
7:16when they've got CeeD Lamb and George Pickens and, you know, a decent short area tight end to Jake Ferguson.
7:22So I'm OK with him at ADP. I'm not reaching for him.
7:26I don't love him quite as much as Debro, but really, I have no beef with him if you're shopping for a
7:33running back in the third or fourth round. To your point, though, Patty, like, I know a lot of people have also
7:39brought up the inefficiencies in the passing game because he was it was not good last year.
7:440.40 yards per route run is a horrible mark.
7:47But to that credit, if we go back into yesteryear for Javante Williams in the previous seasons, 1.2, 1.34, 1.1, 1.21, he's
7:54been serviceable, if not really good in the passing game.
7:57So I think really, if we look at the whole body of work, another year coming off the injury, I think it's
8:04more of an outlier than it is like like a signal for me.
8:08There. Well, guys, I'm going to give you my player.
8:11And these are harder, especially in the early rounds, because not too many guys you're taking like well ahead of ADP.
8:17I would have picked Zay Flowers. I thought about Ken Walker.
8:20I went with the guy here that I might be highest on in the group.
8:25I went with Devontae Smith, wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles.
8:28His ADP right now, real-time ADP has my wide receiver 12, going 30th overall.
8:32I've got him as my wide receiver 10. And I think if we're looking for that JSN type of breakout from a
8:39wide receiver, you've got a very similar situation. Last year, DK Metcalf leads the Seahawks.
8:44This year, A.J. Brown leaves the Eagles. A.J. Brown and Dallas Goddard combined for 18 touchdowns last season.
8:49And I think we can expect some of those to go the way of Devontae Smith.
8:54Goddard never had actually more than five touchdowns in his career.
8:57He gets 11 last year, just a crazy regression coming for him.
9:01And then for Smith, only four touchdowns on 113 targets.
9:04So we could see some positive regression there for him.
9:07The big thing for me is seeing offensive coordinator Sean Mannion coming in, who, Pat, you're familiar with him.
9:13He's been with the Packers. And he's going to be a guy that wants to use a lot more pre-snap motion, something
9:20that LaFleur has done, McVay has done. Philly was 28th in pre-snap motion last year.
9:24And so when you want to get the ball to your best player and get him into a spot where he's going
9:31to be open, oh, let's move him around the formation a bunch.
9:35And that's something that I think we're going to see a lot more with Devontae Smith.
9:39Targets should go way up as well. I mentioned 113 targets last year.
9:43Devontae Smith's best season, 2022, 130 targets. He was a wide receiver 15 in points per game and wide receiver 10 overall.
9:50He did that with A.J. Brown on the roster.
9:53So if we can see this guy getting more touchdowns, more targets last year, every receiver with 130 targets and at least
10:00five touchdowns finishes a top nine wide receiver in fantasy points per game.
10:03This is a really good opportunity for him. It's the number one easiest strength of schedule for passing attacks.
10:09Overall, Devontae Smith is a guy that I want to get every single time in the third round.
10:15But Alfredo, haven't you heard the news? Apparently Jalen Hurts can't see nor throw to the middle of the field.
10:21I mean, aren't you concerned? No, I don't typically go into cornfields and fight straw men here.
10:26I just I like to nor should you. Yeah, I'm just going to look at a good offense and a quarterback who
10:33has led his team to the Super Bowl and a receiver who has produced in the past and now has a ton of opportunities.
10:40So this is a guy that when I see him there and I say, OK, third round, first two rounds, I want to be a little bit safer.
10:49Third round, fourth round. I'm starting to take a little bit more of those swings that who's going to potentially give me
10:55first round return on on the guy that I'm drafting here.
10:59Devontae Smith just feels like that guy here. All right, Jen.
11:02So we're going to go to the next group of rounds, which is going to be the middle rounds, rounds five through nine.
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11:41All right, guys, middle rounds, rounds five through nine.
11:44This is where the championships are won. I'm going to have you start us off here.
11:49Who are you going with? Jameson Williams, he had 1117 yards last season.
11:53He's now had two straight thousand yard seasons, eight touchdowns in 2024-7 last year.
11:57And Williams came on strong late last year. And I know people want to point to the absence of Sam Laporta as
12:04a big reason why we got the boost in usage for Jameson Williams.
12:08I think it was more about Dan Campbell taking over play calling duties from John Morton midway through last year because early
12:14in the season we saw Jameson Williams used as this go-route guy, this sort of vertical decoy to clear out space underneath.
12:21But I think part of the reason Campbell took over, he wanted the ball in Jameson Williams' hands.
12:27And we started seeing Campbell dialing up these crossers and more ways to get Campbell the ball in like near the line
12:33of scrimmage and let him work his magic after the catch.
12:37Excuse me, Jameson getting Jameson Williams the ball. So, yeah, from week 10 on, after Campbell taking over play calling duties, Jameson
12:43Williams was wide receiver nine in half-point PPR scoring right behind Amin Ross St.
12:48Brown, who was wide receiver eight, less than a point per game in half-point PPR separating them.
12:53And I think the usage is going to stick.
12:55Drew Petsing is the new offensive coordinator. You know in the interviews for the new OC that the usage of Jameson Williams came up without a doubt.
13:04And I feel like, you know, it was a mandate for the new OC to find creative ways to get J-Mo the ball.
13:11He had 1117 yards, averaging exactly six targets a game last season.
13:14What could he do with seven or seven and a half targets a game in this offense?
13:19Of a team, by the way, the Lions, who have major issues in their secondary right now and are probably going to
13:26be in a lot of shootouts this year. Like, I think Jameson Williams could go even higher than this.
13:32We saw 1,000 yards, 2024, over 1,100 last year.
13:35I think we could get a 1,200 or 1,300-yard season from J-Mo this year.
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14:39Vegas currently has the Detroit Lions as the number one implied points per game offense this year.
14:44So, yeah, I want as many pieces of this offense as I can get.
14:48And Pat, the guy you got here and Debro, the guy you have come up next, it's just all about upside.
14:54And that's what you're looking for in these rounds.
14:57So, Debro, talk to us about the guy you're going for in the middle rounds here.
15:02Yeah, I mean, Pat and I have been fighting over to talk about this guy on a weekly basis.
15:08We both love him. And Christian Watson, he's just being outright disrespected.
15:11Real-time ADP, wide receiver 29, 65th overall. I have him as my wide receiver 20, 43rd overall.
15:17So, I'm willing to go as high as like the fourth round for him.
15:21You don't probably have to do that. Like, you give him in the fifth.
15:25And that's totally fine for a player that's going in the sixth in a lot of formats.
15:30But for Watson, I think we see him take another step forward last year.
15:35In weeks 8 through 18 last year, he was the wide receiver 21 in fantasy points per game.
15:40No Dontavian Wicks. No Romeo Dobbs. Christian Watson also another year off the injury.
15:44So, that 68% route share, which amongst 109 qualifying wide receivers last year, ranked 56th.
15:49That's going up. So, if he gets into that 70, 75%, 80% route share with the guys gone and more consolidated usage.
15:56Because the Packers have also done this money ball approach with wide receivers that has been horrible over the last few years.
16:02I think some of that is retained. But also, like, we're going to see Watson.
16:07Like, he's not coming off the field in two wide receiver sets.
16:10When they go 13 personnel, one wide receiver on the field, that's going to be Watson, not Golden, not Jaden Reed.
16:17So, for Watson, again, the otherworldly efficiency on a per-route basis has been there.
16:21I mean, even last year, 4th in yards per route run, 10th in first downs per route run.
16:27He gets the bump and just, we talk about, like, volume is king.
16:31Okay, route volume. If he gets the bump in route volume this year, and I think we've seen a long enough sample
16:37size when he's been on the field, he has always been ultra efficient.
16:41There are just certain offenses and certain players that we need to stop, like, discounting and saying, oh, well, that's going to come back to earth.
16:49It never does for the 49ers. Never does for the Rams.
16:52Doesn't happen for the Packers either. Watson's going to cook this year.
16:56Well, and the Packers are just an efficient offense.
16:59Even with past attempts being down last year, Jordan Love remained one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league.
17:05And this is kind of a weird, like, glass half full way to look at it with Christian Watson.
17:11If people are going to say, like, well, he might miss games due to injury.
17:15Well, when he's out, he's out. And you can find a replacement pretty easily.
17:20What actually gets more annoying is the guys who play injured and give you the three or four fantasy points per game.
17:26That actually just gets more frustrating. So, you know, when Watson's healthy, you want to start him, even if it is frustrating later on down the line.
17:34Yeah, absolutely. He was so good when he came back last season and just efficient as could be 17 and a half
17:41yards per catch, 11.1 yards per target, 2.28 yards per route run.
17:45And he was basically producing at a 1,000-yard 10 touchdown pace after he came back.
17:49He's really good. Yeah. I mean, Christian Watson, wide receiver one for this offense.
17:54It's a good offense, good quarterback. Sometimes it is as simple as draft the good players from the good teams.
18:00And guys, you had two very similar picks here.
18:02I'm going to go. It's still a wide receiver, but the guy I'm going to go with here is a little bit different than those.
18:10He's been seen more as the smaller, high volume, but not super explosive type.
18:14And I think this year some of that can change for Josh Downs, wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts.
18:20Right now, real-time ADP has met wide receiver 42, 106th overall.
18:23He's my wide receiver 38. Not a gigantic leap here, but I do think that Josh Downs is a potentially easy wide
18:30receiver three in a lot of fantasy lineups here.
18:33And ninth round, I think, is where you – I mean, if you're not taking swings here on guys who can vastly
18:40outperform ADP, then what are you doing? And that's what I see here with Josh Downs.
18:44In the past, he's been hamstrung by usage and bad QB play, but we've seen there was a short period of time
18:51there where he had Joe Flacco throwing the ball.
18:54And all of a sudden, Josh Downs was performing like a wide receiver two, top 24 kind of guy.
19:00And then last year, we see Daniel Jones comes in.
19:03He's effective and efficient with this offense. And through 13 weeks, Michael Pittman Jr.
19:07was tied for the wide receiver 16 in fantasy points per game.
19:11And that was all after all of us had left the Colts for dead.
19:15And we said, eh, they're probably not going to be very good.
19:19Here we go getting fantasy production. Now, you guys went with two players that are high upside guys.
19:24And I think I've got a guy who could also be a high upside wide receiver going a bit later than them.
19:31And in the past, he just hasn't been looked at that way.
19:34And I'm talking about Josh Downs, wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts.
19:38Real-time ADP has him going at wide receiver 42, 106th overall.
19:41I've got him in my rankings as the wide receiver 38.
19:45And I flirted with even moving him up there.
19:47But guys, ninth round is where we should be taking swings on players that we believe in.
19:53And I still believe that Josh Downs is an extremely talented player.
19:56It's just that the whole thing is that in his career, he's been hamstrung by usage, not getting used in two wide receiver sets or bad quarterback play.
20:05We've seen bits and pieces of how he can be productive.
20:08When Joe Flacco was throwing to him, he was producing like a wide receiver two in fantasy.
20:13And that was with all the starters out there at the same time.
20:17And then last year, we see Daniel Jones comes in.
20:20He's able to be an effective quarterback for this Colts offense through 13 weeks prior to the injury.
20:26Michael Pittman Jr. was tied for the wide receiver 16 in fantasy points per game.
20:30So we know that receivers can be productive in this offense.
20:34Alec Pierce still, I don't quite know what's going on with the ankle there, what's going on as the training camp has just been weird for him.
20:42But Josh Downs is a guy that Shane Steichen has talked about saying we need to get him involved even more.
20:48We need to get him involved, whether it's 12 personnel, 11 personnel, 13 personnel.
20:53We want him on the field as much as we can.
20:56And Downs, the whole thing with him is he gets targeted when he's on the field.
21:01So this is what we want. He has one of the highest targets per route run percentages in the league through the
21:08first three seasons of a wide receiver's career, right up there with Jackson Smith and Jigba, Drake London, Chris Alave, Garrett Wilson.
21:14I mean, these are names that we never see being drafted or Josh Downs being drafted anywhere near them.
21:20But he still gets targeted the same way they do.
21:23We just need him on the field. So if we can get him on the field in these two wide receiver sets,
21:30which Shane Steichen has said we're going to do, I'm really excited about that.
21:34And just to give you guys some context, Downs has only totaled 33 routes and 12 targets from 12 personnel over the past three seasons.
21:42He is just never out there. So it's almost like we're removing 40% of the game from Josh Downs over these years.
21:48And we're about to get that in 2026. Alfredo, I really like the call on Josh Downs.
21:53My only point here is I don't understand. I can't understand anybody drafting or ranking Jaden Reed over Josh Downs when it
22:00feels like the same corollary, except one guy you're like, is he going to play in two wide receiver sets versus the other guy?
22:07It's like, oh yeah, he's going to play in two wide receiver sets.
22:11Target should be really consolidated for the Colts with no Pittman and possibly not a healthy Alec Pierce to start the season.
22:18So my only fear with Downs is he's 5'9 and 171 pounds, plays like he's 6'2, 225.
22:23I mean, he plays a fearless type of football.
22:26So hopefully he can keep himself on the field for 17 games.
22:30Yeah, I think that hopefully if he's not running from the slot quite so much, we're not seeing him take those big hits.
22:37But he honestly hasn't missed much time throughout his career.
22:40Four games missed in his career. But he's one of those guys that's just on the injury report almost every week.
22:46So you get a little nervous seeing that, you know, that cue next to his name as you get to Sunday mornings.
22:53All right, guys, we're going to move on here to rounds 10 and later.
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24:29Gents, let's go through these. I don't want to say rapid fire, but a little bit quicker here because these are our later round picks.
24:37Guys that we're looking at rounds 10 and beyond.
24:39Pat, why don't you kick us off here? It's a great year to wait at quarterback in your draft QB production.
24:46I think it's going to flatten out pretty quickly after the top couple of guys.
24:50And there are about 19 guys I'd be willing to take as my QB1 in redraft.
24:55Kyler Murray is one of them. Terrific value at QB17.
24:58His yearly finishes in fantasy points per game since coming into the league, QB11, QB4, QB4, QB7, QB9, QB12, and then last year, QB20.
25:05Last year was the only year that Kyler Murray has not been a QB1 in fantasy points per game.
25:11Now he gets to play for Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota and gets to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juwan Jennings, and TJ Hawkinson.
25:19I think he's set up for another potential QB1 finish.
25:22I hate how much sense it makes because on the surface, it all just makes so much sense.
25:27And for some reason, I'm still worried about Kyler Murray and the Vikings offense.
25:31Debro, are you comfy with Kyler and the Vikings here?
25:34He's one of a million, like Pat just kind of talked about, a million late round guys.
25:40I find myself going other directions in drafts as opposed to Kyler.
25:43But again, with Kyler, like Pat's laying out here, could the ceiling absolutely hit?
25:47Could he be the new Sam Darnold? But he actually runs and stuff for the Vikings.
25:52Yeah, it's definitely possible. So while I'm not going the direction in a lot of my drafts, I'm also not going to like besmirch anybody that does.
26:01There's a sliding door here, man, where Daniel Jones would have stayed as the Vikings quarterback somehow.
26:06Well, we wouldn't even be having these conversations. But Pat, I'm curious when I give my guy, it's a quarterback.
26:12I wonder if he's one of the 19 that you're willing to draft here.
26:16I guess we'll find out. Debro, who you got here in the later rounds that you're looking at?
26:22Stefan Diggs, man. I feel like this is the long hanging fruit.
26:25And I don't know if he stays like this late in round 10 and later.
26:30I have him as ranked as a top 36 wide receiver because it's literally just him and Terry McLaurin they're throwing the freaking ball to.
26:37I don't think the people realize that Stefan Diggs last year amongst 109 qualifying wide receivers, he was still freaking awesome, man.
26:44Like he was eighth in yards per route run, 18th in separation versus man coverage, 22nd in win rate versus man, 11th
26:51in yards per route run versus man, as well as 11th versus zone.
26:55So, and no matter how you slice it, Stefan Diggs was freaking awesome last year.
26:59He was also only like the Christian Watson for the England Patriots.
27:03He had a 65% route share. If that goes up in Washington this year, he should easily return wide receiver three production
27:10with more upside in a consolidated passing attack. And I don't think ADP is going to catch up to him.
27:16I think you're just going to be able to draft him as a value the entirety of draft season.
27:22Pat, how do you look at this commander's offense now with Stefan Diggs being added in there?
27:27I'm sure we can have a lot of valuable pieces, but can all these guys return their draft costs here?
27:33Yeah. I mean, I think so. Since Diggs probably is going to stay cheap as Debro was pointing out.
27:39The only thing is that we know that the commander's passing game probably isn't going to be as prolific as the Patriots passing game was last year.
27:47Like we saw Drake may throw for what? 4,400 yards.
27:50Two years ago, Jaden Daniels threw for about 3,500.
27:53So there's like kind of a yardage gap and Diggs didn't have to contend with another pass catcher fight for targets with
27:59someone like Terry McLaurin last year in New England.
28:02So maybe there's just a little bit smaller pie, but Diggs is really efficient and he's probably going to have up more
28:09than the 50% or so route share he had for the Patriots last year.
28:13He's probably going to be playing more this year because last year he was coming off that 2024 injury.
28:19All right. I'm going to get to my last guy here, Pat, and I'm so curious.
28:24Tyler Shuck, New Orleans Saints quarterback 21 in real time ADP.
28:27161st overall. Is this one of your 19 draftable quarterbacks?
28:30He's just outside the circle of trust there, but I would happily I'd take him as QB2 in in a super flex.
28:37Where do you have him ranked, Alfredo? Because I'm with you on the Shuck train.
28:41DB 14, baby. That's where I have him as well.
28:44Yes! And I'm feeling weird about it, but there's a lot of reasons why I like Tyler Shuck.
28:50He's one of the guys I got to chart for reception perception.
28:53And I was actually pleasantly surprised at how good this dude is.
28:57He can sling it amongst the 29 quarterbacks that I had charted over there.
29:01He was number one on intermediate throws, and that's something that is a staple in the Kellen Moore offense is being able
29:08to hit guys that are 10 plus yards downfield.
29:11Now you add in Jordan Tyson to Chris Alave and this team.
29:14This is something where they're going to be able to attack downfield a lot.
29:19And from the fantasy side, you go back last year from week 10 on, he was quarterback 10 in fantasy points per game.
29:26Week 12 on after the bye, quarterback six in fantasy points per game.
29:30There was just once he got things going and he was the consistent starter, they had the bye week to get things right.
29:37Tyler Shuck looked great. And the thing for him in fantasy was that he was running and it wasn't just like scrambling
29:43for his life either and having to run. He was fourth in design rush yards and third in expected rushing touchdowns before his hip injury.
29:51And that sort of changed things up there. But I do expect that to level off a little bit.
29:57The rushing upside though is still there. And this is something where the whole environment around him has improved.
30:02We got David Edwards on the interior offensive line, which is going to help because last year the New Orleans Saints had
30:09one of the most injured offensive lines. They rarely had their starters all together.
30:13Actually, second fewest snaps together as a starting unit.
30:16They draft Jordan Tyson. They add Travis Etienne. This is an offense that I think could take a big leap.
30:22And a big part of that is going to be Tyler Shuck.
30:26Nine indoor games as well. We got to remember that the elements sometimes matter here.
30:30But this all just feels very reminiscent of Drake May, who we were talking about last year, where he has a strong finish as a rookie.
30:38They add some weapons around him, improved offensive line.
30:41He was going as quarterback 16 and ADP. Now we've got Shuck going around quarterback 21 and ADP.
30:47And I just don't want it. I don't want him to be the guy that I miss out on.
30:52So typically what I'll do is he's my break glass in case of emergency quarterback.
30:57And I'll draft him and someone else that's outside of that typical top 12 and ADP at quarterback.
31:02It's too easy to pair him with somebody like Jared Goff, where you get floor and ceiling and drafts right now, again, going with late quarterbacks.
31:10And another great point for your pro Shuck argument, Alfredo, is I don't think people realize that the Saints in weeks 12 through 18 were incredibly pass happy.
31:19So like the passing volume is going to be there during that stretch, fifth and neutral passing rate, 11th in pass rate
31:26over expectation, adding all those weapons this offseason, improving the offensive line.
31:29I don't think that slows down in 2026. Nope.
31:32I'm staying pretty high here on Tyler Shuck. And before we head out here, guys, I want to remind everybody that you
31:39can use the fantasy pros draft simulator. The best way to find out whether you can actually land your must have players and get to practice it.
31:47That's the only way to do it. So head on over to the fantasy pros draft simulator, run realistic mock drafts in
31:54minutes, test different draft slots, see where your favorite targets leave the board and learn how aggressively you need to move before someone else takes them.
32:01Go to fantasypros.com slash mock or download the fantasy pros app and practice your plan before draft day.
32:07As always, I want to thank you all for joining us here today, watching or listening all the way through for myself, for Pat, for D bro.
32:15We'll see you next time. Adios. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast.
32:20If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
32:29Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasy pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasy pros.
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