2026 Top 60 Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers: Must-Target Sleepers, Fades & Debates (Ep. 2126)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 7 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 12, 2026
Published
Wed, August 12, 2026
24
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Deebo SamuelEmeka EgbukaJaylen WaddleJosh DownsParker WashingtonRashee RiceAlec PierceBrian Thomas Jr.Caleb DouglasCeeDee LambGeorge PickensJalen CokerJalen McMillanJustin Jefferson
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeInjury42:48
Alec Pierce is a 'fade' candidate due to lingering ankle complications and surgery that have kept him off the practice field. The source notes that even if he plays, his role may not expand beyond his previous deep-threat usage (5.6 targets/game), making him a volatile asset. The source compares the uncertainty to the 'Christian McCaffrey' situation where injury updates were consistently optimistic until they weren't.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeRole38:01
The source expresses concern about Brian Thomas Jr. because the Jaguars' offense relies on first reads, and Thomas is often sent 15-20 yards downfield. With Jacoby Myers in the mix and other weapons like Parker Washington and Brenton Strange, the crowded target environment makes it difficult for Trevor Lawrence to progress to his third or fourth read, potentially limiting Thomas's consistency.
Insight pageCaleb Douglas
PositiveSleeper2:00
Caleb Douglas is a rookie wide receiver who has been sneaking up rankings and is now in the flyer conversation due to a lack of other receiving options on his team.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveValue10:24
The source expresses hesitation drafting CeeDee Lamb in the first round due to concerns about target volatility and the emergence of George Pickens, noting that Lamb's touchdown production has been inconsistent.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
PositiveValue57:00
The source ranks Debo Samuel at 55, five spots higher than ECR (60), noting he is a strong value at the end of drafts. Despite a perceived unimpactful 2025 season, he finished as WR25 in PPR and was within 10 points of players like Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. He is expected to return to Kyle Shanahan's offense, where his YAC ability and rushing usage provide significant upside, potentially reaching 9-10 touchdowns.
Insight pagePositiveValue57:00
The source ranks Deebo Samuel five spots higher than his ECR of 60, placing him at 55. Despite being perceived as unimpactful, Samuel finished as the WR25 in PPR scoring last season and was within 10 total fantasy points of elite receivers like CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBreakout27:09
Emeka Egbuka is a high-upside target who showed WR1 potential early last season before injuries derailed the Buccaneers' offense; he is expected to have a full breakout this year.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:54
The source expects a full breakout for Emeka Egbuka this year, noting that he was a unanimously loved prospect by NFL teams and that camp vibes were immaculate a year ago; the previous season's struggles were largely attributed to injuries.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveBreakout10:32
George Pickens has evolved into a complete receiver, moving beyond his previous reputation as a contested-catch specialist, and is expected to command significant volume alongside CeeDee Lamb.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveBreakout60:30
Jalen Coker is identified as a potential breakout candidate who is undervalued in current rankings. The Panthers' decision to extend him signals he is their clear WR2. Projections suggest that if he secures 500+ routes and 100+ targets with a 20% target share, he has a high probability of finishing as a top-20 wide receiver, with a worst-case scenario comparable to Jerry Judy's floor.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
PositiveInjury30:02
Jalen McMillan is currently dealing with an injury, which dampens his outlook as a late-round sleeper.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue45:04
Fitz ranks Jalen Waddle at WR16, arguing he is undervalued at his current aggregate rank of WR27. As the featured receiver in Sean Payton's offense, Waddle is expected to be the focal point of the passing game, similar to Michael Thomas's high-volume seasons. Waddle has a career average of 9.3 yards per target and 2.07 yards per route run.
Insight pagePositiveProjection48:31
Jake projects Jalen Waddle for 89 catches, 1,132 yards, and 7 touchdowns, noting that while Waddle may not reach double-digit touchdowns, his projected 134 targets make him a strong fantasy asset, comparable to Zay Flowers.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeInjury0:53
Josh Downs is currently dealing with an injury during training camp, which is impacting his status.
Insight pagePositiveRole53:44
The source is high on Josh Downs, noting he is now locked into 12-personnel sets, unlike previous seasons where he was the odd man out. With Alec Pierce's injury, Downs could start the season as the Colts' primary target, potentially commanding a 22-25% target share. The source suggests he should be ranked in the same tier as Chris Godwin.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection10:12
Justin Jefferson is preferred over CeeDee Lamb as a first-round target because he is the undisputed lead receiver in Minnesota, with a high target floor and potential for 1500+ yards and top-five production with Kyler Murray.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveBreakout48:35
The source believes Makai Lemon is ranked too low at WR44. Despite a hamstring injury, he is viewed as a high-upside rookie who can serve as the 'Robin' to Devonta Smith's 'Batman' in the Eagles' offense. He demonstrated elite efficiency in college, averaging over three yards per route run against both man and zone coverage, a feat shared by elite receivers like Ja'Marr Chase and Devonta Smith.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveProjection5:43
Malik Nabers has seen a significant positive shift in market sentiment, moving from panic regarding his week one status to being solidly back in the second round of drafts.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveValue51:54
Jake and Fitz view Mike Evans as a positive value play. Despite a down year last season, Evans has historically been a consistent producer. He is expected to be the primary touchdown target for Brock Purdy in the Shanahan offense, and the analysts are not concerned about target competition from George Kittle or Christian McCaffrey.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue38:22
The source argues Parker Washington is undervalued at his current ADP of 30-32. Despite concerns about target competition, the source believes Washington is a 'must-start' receiver in 3-WR leagues and should be viewed as a high-end WR3 or low-end WR2, with a target finish around WR24-28 to justify the hype.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout60:26
Jake highlights Parker Washington as a major sleeper, noting that reports from Jaguars camp are overwhelmingly positive regarding his connection with Trevor Lawrence. Despite his low ADP, Washington finished as a WR11 in fantasy points per game during the second half of last season, and his role as a primary read in Liam Cohen's offense makes him a high-upside target.
Insight pagePat Bryant
NegativeRole6:45
Despite hype, Pat Bryant is primarily being utilized as a blocker in three-wide receiver sets, casting doubt on his fantasy utility.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeBust32:32
Fitz ranks Rashee Rice at WR18, six spots below his aggregate WR12 ranking, citing concerns over his knee surgery, character issues, and a potential decline in the Chiefs' passing efficiency since his arrival. Fitz argues the Chiefs are incentivized to move away from the screen-heavy offense that fueled Rice's production, especially with Kenneth Walker's expected involvement in the screen game, Xavier Worthy's increased role, and potential buzz for Cyrus Allen.
Insight pagePositiveProjection36:48
Jake projects Rashee Rice at WR16 with a 22% target share, noting that Rice's high aggregate ranking (WR7) is heavily propped up by an unsustainable projection of nearly 10 receiving touchdowns. Jake expresses skepticism about Rice reaching those numbers given the competition for targets from Travis Kelce and the team's focus on backfield passing options like Kenneth Walker, De Mercado, and Emitt Johnson.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com, or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. We will be looking at them in kind of groups of 10, where the
0:10tiers are going to break and how much more they should extend and where these guys kind of agree and disagree.
0:16And this is a much bigger number, so we got to really jam into it as we're going to jump into these wide receivers.
0:23Really quickly, Pat, do you think the landscape has had some altering as far as tiers have gone with camps opening up?
0:29We've had a lot of hot risers. Obviously, Stribbling has been there.
0:33Jacoby Lane has been another one of those. We've had a few signings.
0:36It seems like there's been a shakeup. That is a cheap plug for our real-time ADP, by the way.
0:42FantasyPros.com slash real ADP if you want to see the changes.
0:45But over the last couple of weeks, there's been kind of a major shakeup.
0:49Have you noticed that in your own tiers or maybe even overall significant rankings?
0:53Plus some of the injuries, by the way, like Josh Downs a little bit banged up.
0:57What have you noticed as far as your ranks and tiers at wide receiver go?
1:02Yeah, I was going to say, do we have 60 healthy wide receivers right now in training camp?
1:07Like it doesn't feel like it. And that's kind of been the hard part for me, keeping tabs on all the injuries
1:13and trying to figure out whether any of them require ranks changes or not.
1:17So I know for me, that's been the hard one.
1:20But I have been sneaking up guys like Caleb Douglas, Jacoby Lane, some of the rookies making and sneaking up.
1:25I mean, I think those guys are still like wide receiver 80 and 81 or something like that.
1:31But at least worth keeping an eye on. They weren't at all on the redraft radar just a few weeks ago.
1:37Yeah, to be fair, I actually just finished the flex Jake Sealy's own flex league draft where, by the way, shout out
1:43to Fantasy Pros for projecting me number one. I'll take that.
1:46But something I noticed, cheap plug, humbly, I say this, that in the sleeper rankings, you know, it's a 12 team league.
1:52I had their throwing Jacoby Lane at me, you know, they were throwing stripling at me like those guys are really moved up.
1:59So even some of the sites are, you know, readjusting and making those adjustments on their overall players that are moving up.
2:05Jake, have you noticed more positive or negative movement?
2:08Because the negative could be, you know, the negative camp stuff, the injuries, the positive could be the same kind of camp base things.
2:14Some of these players, you know, oh, my God, stripling is going to be the best wide receiver we've ever seen.
2:20And Cyrus Allen, you know, like what have you seen?
2:23Have you felt more positive or negative movement in your wide receiver ranks?
2:27There's been more positive. And you just mentioned two of the names.
2:30Just the funny thing was Andy over Andy Barron's now doing work for us as well over the athletic.
2:36He even made a joke about his Mount Rushmore on Twitter because everybody was doing the Mount Rushmore of this, that and the other thing.
2:43And he's my wide receivers and he put Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson.
2:46And then he put preseason Jacoby Lane and like that because that's what we're doing.
2:51We're we're fiending for football. We're waiting. We're waiting.
2:53We're waiting. It's actually happening. But let's also remember something.
2:56I just did a show on here yesterday for a mock draft is something that Fitz has said.
3:01You've said Andrew said like they're playing versus air right now.
3:04Like, let's wait a little bit. Let's actually see them on the field, especially when it comes to somebody like Lane, whose
3:11biggest issue at a college was struggling with coverage.
3:13Like he's not really facing coverage. I know he's facing the defense and the second team defense, but we know it's not true coverage.
3:20So let's see to actually play these games. But yeah, that's what happens is that because of what Fitz said is, you
3:26know, okay, these guys are still in the seventies or eighties, you know, even as somebody like myself who was on Caleb
3:32Douglas, because of like, who else are they going to throw the ball to?
3:36And they did take them before Chris Bell. It's still flyer names that just went from being unheard of to now in the flyer conversation.
3:43And that's where they're starting to go, except for Malik neighbors who apparently went from everybody's panicking about week one to, Oh, everything's fine.
3:50I'm still playing the middle a little bit, but he's the one where it's the biggest bump I would say.
3:56Cause now he's solidly back in the second round.
3:59One of the funnier ones to me was the, the conversation if you guys saw it just like two days ago or
4:05whatever about Pat Bryant and like, how are you going to keep Pat Bryant off the field?
4:10And they're like, we're not. But then like the top quote is like, he's a great blocker.
4:14And it's just like, we're going to have those inundated things where we're going to talk up these wide receivers.
4:20And then they're going to just be in, you know, three wide receiver sets blocking.
4:24We're not going to keep them off the field.
4:27Courtland Sutton and Jalen Waddle will. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.
4:30The coaching staff will not. So, all right, well, we're going to dig into all of these names and we'll see where
4:36some of these guys end up popping. If any of them make these top 60 wide receivers over on fantasy pros, if
4:42you guys want to follow along, you can type in fantasy pros, football ranks.
4:46It'll take you there or go to fantasy pros.com slash NFL slash rankings.
4:50And you can see all of them, half PPR, full PPR, dynasty, super flex.
4:54You can see what's happening. But for intents and purposes for this episode, you want to check the half PPR if you
5:00want to reference what we're talking about. So let's jump into it and let's see this first bucket.
5:05The top 10 wide receivers over on fantasy pros with a tier break in tier one.
5:10It's four wide receivers, Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, Jackson Smith and Jigba and Amonra St.
5:14Brown. I don't think there's been really any change in the off season there.
5:18Maybe the only change is seeing Amonra St. Brown in tier one.
5:21I feel like I didn't see that before, but maybe I'm making that up.
5:25Five through 10 is CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, A.J.
5:29Brown, Nico Collins and George Pickens. So that is your top 10.
5:32Tier two starts at CeeDee Lamb and goes down.
5:35So tier one is the top four wide receivers.
5:37Tier two goes to this group. And just a fun fact, tier two does end at wide receiver 10.
5:42So the next tier in the next grouping will be the start of the next one.
5:47So two tiers of wide receivers, top 10. Pat, let's start with you.
5:51You're going to focus on a wide receiver that, you know, in whatever realm of like misjudgment rank, whether it's too high,
5:57too low, or this can simply be someone that you think is too important and you got to target.
6:02Who's your wide receiver in this top 10 you want to cover?
6:06So my top 10 is pretty much in lockstep with the ECR, other than having Justin Jefferson ahead of CeeDee Lamb.
6:12That's really the only difference. And there's a case to be made for Puka Nakua over Jamar Chase at number one.
6:18I haven't made that switch yet. But I just I really don't want to draft CeeDee Lamb in round one this year.
6:24And he's a fantastic player and fading fantastic players is generally bad policy.
6:28But man, no player changed my mind about him last year more than George Pickens did.
6:32Like I thought Pickens going into last season was good, but I thought he was kind of a contested catch artist, not necessarily a complete receiver.
6:40Well, George Pickens is a complete receiver and he's pretty special, as is CeeDee Lamb.
6:44And I hate the too many miles to feed cliche.
6:47And maybe this is a situation where both guys really can return wide receiver one value.
6:51Dak Prescott, good passer. Dallas defense might be better under Christian Parker, but probably not going to be a lockdown unit.
6:57Dallas is still going to play in some track meets.
7:00Maybe Lamb and Pickens can chop up 2,700 yards and 23 or 24 touchdowns.
7:04My fear, though, is that if I draft Lamb, George Pickens has 100 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in week one.
7:10And CeeDee Lamb has four for 53. And I'm sitting there thinking, OK, my first round pick just got me four fewer
7:17points than Wondale Robinson just got me. And I know there are going to be weeks where Lamb is the guy and Pickens takes a backseat.
7:24And weekly volatility, just kind of the nature of the wide receiver position in general.
7:28But I just feel a little bit better about drafting Justin Jefferson at the end of the first round because he's the star of the show in Minnesota.
7:36Like Jordan Addison is good, but he is a supporting actor.
7:39Jefferson is the lead. The Dallas situation, it's more of a buddy picture.
7:43It's Lethal Weapon. It's Midnight Run. It's Step Brothers.
7:46OK. I thought you were going to keep going.
7:48I would have been cool if you would have just kept going with great references.
7:53So the line from Lethal Weapon to Step Brothers was quite impressive.
7:56Only something you could do, Pat. Very impressive. I will say, you know, it's interesting because it's not like, I mean, the
8:02top 10, it's going to be like this. I don't think there's a single wide receiver you would point out in this
8:08top 10 where you're like, this guy's going to be a failure.
8:12You're more having conversations of disagreement on ranks because it's like, well, you know, I don't like him over these other guys because there's some insustainability.
8:19You know, like CeeDee Lamb, I'm with you. Like there's a little bit of, it feels like there's that inherent risk of Pickens having those big days.
8:27But then you could also look, Jake, just your take, where you see a guy like Jamar Chase who can be the theoretical number one wide receiver.
8:35And then a guy like Tee Higgins who can be top 15.
8:38Where do you think maybe the line is from Higgins and Chase and why Lamb and Pickens can't have more of that defined?
8:44Because those two are just kind of clumped together right now.
8:48And what's your take on Lamb being maybe misranked here?
8:50I'm actually with Fitz on this. Like I have of this entire group of entire top 10, I'm off maybe a spot
8:57or two from consensus or ADP, except for CeeDee Lamb where I'm minus three.
9:01I have them down at eight and I have them back to back with Pickens mostly because, I mean, I keep going
9:07through my projections and they have equitable targets. Almost the same amount of receptions, a little bit more to Lamb, a little
9:13bit fewer to Pickens, but the yards are slightly more to Pickens and the touchdowns are slightly more.
9:18And I'm not afraid of either though, to go back to the first part of your question is I have them both as wide receiver ones.
9:26We've seen time and again, wide receiver ones from the same team do this all the time.
9:30We go back, AJ Brown and Vontae Smith did it years ago.
9:34We've seen the Bengals. You brought up Tee Higgins.
9:36Tee Higgins has finished as a wide receiver one, even pushing the top 10 that one year with Jamar Chase.
9:42So it can be done and we know it can be done.
9:46It just doesn't always feel great. And I think the bigger thing here is where we had Chase and Higgins, there was
9:52a gap when we had even AJ Brown, Devontae Smith, there was a gap.
9:56And then it seemed like Devontae Smith was closing that gap that one year.
10:00And usually all these teams have like a little bit of a gap.
10:03This feels more like what Fitz is saying. It's like back to back.
10:07And there's probably going to be a little bit more volatility where, yeah, there'll be some weeks where they both eat getting
10:1380 to 100 yards and possibly a touchdown ease.
10:16But then there'll be some, like you said, you just got to live with it.
10:20Understand that this isn't the city land we used to know.
10:23And it's not the Pickens we used to know, which is a good thing for him.
10:28But just there's a little bit more volatility with it.
10:31All right. So, Jake, why don't you hit us with your wide receivers?
10:34Actually, I think he was mentioned here by Fitzy just a second ago.
10:38You said you have only a few little different disagreements, positively or negatively, the wide receiver in the top 10 that you want to focus on.
10:45Yeah. And I would put him one spot in front of Moneroy St.
10:49Brown if I'm shooting for ceiling because we're talking about Justin Jefferson and we're talking about including the year that he got
10:55hurt, which if you look at that pace, that was actually a pace for his second best season of his career.
11:01But somebody that walking into 150, 160, 170, 180 targets all of those seasons, 100 plus receptions, 15, 16, 17, 1800 yards in all those seasons.
11:09And it really just comes down to last year is that it was nothing more than McCarthy killed Jefferson.
11:14McCarthy just ruined him because we used to, we walked into last season at this time saying, eh, you know what?
11:20He's done it with Mullins and all these other jabronis at quarterback.
11:24He'll be fine. That being Jefferson. And then McCarthy said, hold my beer.
11:27I'm going to show you. He can't be fine.
11:30And I think just going back to Jefferson, we got the news today, which we all expected.
11:35It was a shock to nobody that Kyler Murray will be the starting quarterback.
11:39And I think Kyler Murray, who has put up numbers with number one wide receivers, the question is what happens at the
11:452-3 spot with him if you look at his history?
11:48Is that like with the Hopkins or does he go to somebody else and then share the 2-3 duties?
11:53But at least the number one seems to see a heavy volume.
11:56And if we're just talking about admirable, not even great, just okay quarterback play, which Kyler can still do at this point in his career.
12:04Talking about that 150 target range again. Well, from McCarthy, not McCarthy, McCaffrey.
12:07McCarthy, not him, going to Murray, we will get 100 plus targets, 1500 plus yards and back inside the top potential five, if not top three.
12:15It's an interesting group to kind of dissect here.
12:17And it gets a little bit wonky when you're just like, you know, oh, is there any?
12:22Luckily, we're not talking about busts or anything like that.
12:25But when you're just talking about like a fade or a target.
12:28And I think C.D. Lamb is going to get people kind of up in arms, too, because also, you know, it was
12:35117 targets, but it was in 14 games. So if you uptick the games, you play a little positive touchdown regression.
12:40That offense is humming. And then all of a sudden, C.D.
12:44Lamb is back up there. I think that's my biggest concern, though.
12:47I think my concern is Lamb. No, no. With Pickens at the Lamb's touchdowns won't be as high as it could be.
12:53I don't think he's got one year double digit.
12:56And I don't know if he gets back to that.
12:59But also, maybe it's not so much about like it being a double digit, but it's like it can't be much worse than three.
13:05You know what I mean? Like it has to go up in theory.
13:09So that's what I'm saying is like you bring back the target.
13:13And by the way, I'm with you guys. I have I think I have C.D.
13:17at eight. It's eight or nine. So I'm like right down there with you.
13:21But if you make the argument that, you know, the target share comes back to even like a feasible 140, let's say, on a full season.
13:28And he has to have more touchdowns and it's five or six.
13:32What does that end up looking like? You know, and that's where, you know, projections will kind of pop in.
13:37He just feels a little bit more volatile than some of those other options.
13:41But you want to be fair, the guys under him, Justin Jefferson, if you lose Kyler and you get McCarthy, is that a worry, Pat?
13:48Drake London has got I mean, can you have a worse quarter?
13:52I mean, I guess you can. We can look at the Dolphins after Malik.
13:56But can you have a worse situation than Chua and Penix for Drake London?
14:00So, I mean, there are a couple of those wide receivers.
14:03Yes, because you can't even imagine what happens when they're both out.
14:06Yeah, but there's a floor that's pretty scary that, you know, you can build a story, Fitzy, behind some of those other wide receivers against Lamb.
14:14Again, I'm not necessarily trying to make this big case for him for the whole Lamb conversation.
14:18But even for Justin Jefferson, there's like still a little bit of a worry that kind of floats out there if, you
14:25know, you were to get McCarthy back or something like that.
14:28Sure. And that's what you have to cross your fingers for that we don't get that again.
14:33Because I would just say to any fantasy manager assessing Justin Jefferson for this season, think of how terrifying it was to
14:39play against Justin Jefferson in fantasy every year until 2025.
14:42Like when you were going, you know, watching a Vikings game and you're playing against Justin Jefferson.
14:47Every time the Minnesota quarterback drops back to pass, you're just living in terror of what's coming.
14:51And I think we're going to get back to that this year.
14:55All right, let's go take a look at the second set of wide receivers, wide receivers 11 through 20.
15:00But before we do, the draft assistant is here for you.
15:03When you're on the clock and the final wide receiver in a tier is still available, the decision is going to get difficult.
15:10Maybe it will be difficult if it's CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson.
15:13That's where the draft assistant is going to help you out.
15:16Sink your league and get real-time pick-by-pick advice. Compare the best players available, track your roster construction, and decide whether to take
15:23the back, pivot positions, or going to wait overall.
15:25Go to fantasypros.com slash draftwizard or download the Fantasy Pros app.
15:28Use draft assistant and draft with confidence. And guess what?
15:31You can try it for free right now by claiming your three-day trial of Fantasy Pros Premium at fantasypros.com slash free.
15:37That's fantasypros.com slash free. All right, let's bring up the big board and take a look at these wide receivers.
15:43This is our second set, 11 through 20, but this is the tier three of wide receivers.
15:48At 11, we've got Chris Olave followed by Rasheed Rice, Devonta Smith, Zay Flowers, Malik Labors has moved himself up to 15 here.
15:54T. Higgins at 16, Tedaroa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Garrett Wilson, and Ladd McConkie.
15:58That's where we finish the top 10 in tier three, 11 through 20.
16:02And Jake, you get to jump in here. Positive or negative, your wide receiver you want to target to talk about in this range.
16:08So if everybody watched their running back show, it was more negative than positive.
16:12It's going to be a lot of positive today.
16:15I'm taking a lot of positive ones. And it wasn't even intentional.
16:18Yeah, you know, I left the easy one, I feel like, for fifths.
16:22I think we're definitely going to agree on that one.
16:25But I'm looking at Egbuka, and I'm getting a lot of them so far.
16:29And it's one of those situations where I want to put them higher.
16:32But it's like, man, can I put him in front of Devontae Smith?
16:36Can I put him in front of T. Higgins?
16:39But he's right there. And there's a reason you said it.
16:42Tier three is huge. It goes from 11 to 20-something, like down to 28, 29.
16:46Yeah. So, I mean, deservedly so. Because if you flip-flop this, heck, you threw them all to a hat and picked out the order.
16:53It wouldn't probably be that far because they're going to be that tightly grouped at the end of the season.
16:59But I think for the ceiling of Egbuka, I mean, we all remember the first five games from last year.
17:04And admittedly, I've brought this up before, admittedly, all of those, every single one of those games came without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.
17:11So there you had Mike Evans at the beginning, then he got hurt.
17:15No Chris Godwin until that point. And Chris Godwin probably even not 100% at that point.
17:19But the 100% is the thing after that. Egbuka got hurt.
17:22Baker Mayfield got hurt. The offensive line got hurt.
17:25Like, everybody talks about the 49ers. And nobody acknowledges the Buccaneers might be practicing next to a power station, too.
17:31Because, like, they'd dealt with a ton of injuries on a lot of them.
17:35Like, on the offense. So I think I'm looking at Egbuka's potential to be the number one with this team with no
17:41Mike Evans, who we'll bring up again later. And the fact that we can get Baker Mayfield back to, I'm not even
17:47talking about the two seasons ago where he was in the MVP conversation.
17:51Can we just get 4,000 plus and around 30 touchdowns?
17:54Well, guess what? If he does, Egbuka is going to be in hand of probably having a wide receiver one season, even
18:00with 100% Godwin, whatever that is at this point.
18:02Jalen McMillan's already banged up. That was a sleeper that I really liked late in drafts because we saw that he could
18:09lead this team late last year as well. I know Ted Hurst is getting some steam.
18:13And I'm a Ted Hurst guy, but he's still a rookie.
18:16I think that we're kind of overlooking how high the ceiling can be for Egbuka at this point.
18:22Yeah. Fitzy, I was in that flex league. I wanted Egbuka.
18:25I was ready to just go ham and go four straight wide receivers in that one because Jake has all these flexes
18:31and there's like two flexes and then the wide receiver tight end flex.
18:35I wanted Egbuka in the fourth round. And I thought about him in the third, but I had passed him for Zay Flowers.
18:41He's definitely a target of mine. I'm trying to find spots to draft him.
18:45What do you think about Emeka Egbuka? Oh yeah.
18:48And we already got a glimpse of the ceiling last year when he was wide receiver three in PPR scoring through the
18:54first five weeks of the season with like 450 yards and five touchdowns.
18:58And like this time a year ago, the vibes were just immaculate for Emeka Egbuka.
19:02Like everyone was raving about him in camp. And this was after a draft period where they were talking about him being
19:08one of like two prospects that every team in the NFL just unanimously loved.
19:12And so, yeah, I mean, I think we're going to get the full breakout this year because things did go haywire with all the box injuries.
19:19All right, Pat, you as targeted, you have a player that you guys are both going to agree on and I don't
19:26think it's going to be in the positive reign here.
19:29And I actually passed on this player as well in this most recent draft and it just seems hard to pull the trigger.
19:35But you are going to be targeting the number 12 wide receiver on this ranks list, which we're getting to a point
19:41where it doesn't feel like everybody is in agreement.
19:44And I'm wondering when he's going to start dropping in ECR.
19:47Yeah, Jake's Mr. Sunshine this episode. So I'll be the one who, you know, I'll be the walking thundercloud.
19:52It's Rishi Rice. Wide receiver 12. I'm six spots lower at wide receiver.
19:56I've got him wide receiver 18. Just don't want to draft him.
19:59So like, let's just set aside the injury concerns for a minute about Rishi Rice, who had cleanup surgery on his knee in the spring.
20:07Let's set aside the character concerns about a guy who fled a multi-car accident that he caused and then violated his probation
20:13and thus had to recover from the cleanup surgery in jail.
20:16The point I want to make is that before the Chiefs passing game, before Rice showed up, the Chiefs passing game was
20:22operating at a much higher level than it was after the Chiefs drafted Rice.
20:26And it's not really Rice's fault, but the Chiefs are incentivized to do things differently rather than continuing to throw a bunch
20:32of screens and short passes to Rishi Rice and have that be the foundation of their passing game.
20:38Again, his first five years as a starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged just shy of 4,800 yards a season, 38.4 touchdown passes, 8.1 yards per pass attempt.
20:45Since Rishi Rice joined the team three years ago, Mahomes has averaged about 1,000 fewer yards per season, hasn't thrown more than
20:5127 touchdown passes in any season, and has averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, more than a yard fewer per attempt than before Rice showed up.
20:58Here are three ways in which I think Rice's role in the Kansas City offense could be diminished this year.
21:04Number one, Kenneth Walker becomes a big part of the Andy Reid screen game, which means fewer wide receiver screens for Rice,
21:10who has gotten by far the most fantasy points off wide receiver screens of anyone in the league the last couple of years.
21:17And we've already gotten reports about Walker's usage in the screen game and training camp.
21:21Number two, Xavier Worthy plays a much more prominent role in 26 than he did in 25 after the shoulder injury in week one.
21:28Pretty much derailed his season from the get-go. And number three, Cyrus Allen actually does become a thing.
21:33I don't know if that's going to happen, but the kid definitely has some buzz.
21:37So even without the injury and character concerns, I think Rishi Rice has pretty fragile value for fantasy.
21:42Then add the injury and character concerns, and we're talking super fragile value.
21:46So the really tricky part, Jake, about this as well is the aggregate projections we have on Fantasy Pros.
21:51It's pulling in ESPN and it pulls in CBS.
21:54He's number seven. Rishi Rice comes in as wide receiver seven, so he is far beyond this.
21:59And the reason behind it, and maybe this is the other thing you talked about, Fitz, you talked about the three pieces,
22:05the pillars maybe, if you will, that could ruin Rishi Rice.
22:08If those all intertwine at one touchdown street, that's going to be the thing because he's projected at almost 10 receiving touchdowns, Rishi Rice is.
22:15And that would be, just as a quick eye, I believe that's the third most receiving touchdowns projected on here.
22:21And that's what's propping up his value because it's the, I mean, this is a lot of catches actually, but the receiving yards are down comparatively.
22:28So projections are really high in him. The touchdowns are a thing that are building that up.
22:33So Jake, what do you want to add to that overall that, you know, you've got Fitz's pillars of what could ruin him.
22:40I think the touchdowns are the clear space. Where should he be?
22:43And why are you not into him? It's just all those factors, including the fact that, you know, the touchdowns being there,
22:49you know, I have looking at mine, I have my homes for 31 passing touchdowns and that still checks in Rice at eight and a half.
22:57So maybe I'm a little under, but I feel like that's more in line with that.
23:01What Patrick Holmes share is going to be if he got up to 35.
23:05Yeah. Another one or two could get him there.
23:08The biggest issue is that it's the 22% target share that I gave him.
23:12And that's why I give people my projections to customize on the sites.
23:15Like, if you want to say that's crazy, he should be 25, 26.
23:19I just don't know if it's going to be 25, 26 for a multitude of factors of games played injury.
23:25Just the other options on the team that Fitz brought up like Kelsey is not dead and gone yet.
23:30And passing to the backfield with Kenneth Walker, who they've talked about as they're designing the passing game in the running back department specifically for his skillset.
23:38Hey, Seahawks, maybe something you should have done, but even if not with him, you got De Mercado and Emmitt Johnson.
23:44And if there's anything left with the hope for Rashad Smith, like there's options to throw to in the backfield as well,
23:50where I just don't know if he gets there.
23:53And that's the biggest issue. So you go back to it, like where my projections, I actually I'm with Fitz.
23:58I have a few spots lower. I think I have them at like 16 or 17.
24:03And my projections have them at 16 for wide receivers and half point PPR.
24:07So I'm not getting a lot of Rashid Rice and we can look back and cold take expose us.
24:12And we're both look like idiots today. But I just I'm not in on Rashid Rice this year.
24:17I want to reiterate that seven on this aggregate projection 16.
24:20I mean, that's a big difference for a top flight wide receiver.
24:24So that's very, very interesting. All right. We're going to go to our third set of wide receivers here, which is a
24:30continuation of tier three and a little bit of extra on the tier here.
24:34But first, let's talk about Discord. If you need some advice on your next pick, you want to join our Fantasy Bros Discord community.
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24:55Eastern on the first Tuesday of every month. And if you got Dynasty stuff, that's a great place for Dynasty.
25:01And then started back up just this past week.
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26:32Healthcare just got less painful. All right, our next set of wide receivers here.
26:36We have got Jalen Waddle at 21, Terry McLaurin at 22, Luther Burden at 23, Devante Adams, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, Mike
26:42Evans, DJ Moore, Roma Dunze, and then Carnell Tate.
26:45We are going to be kicking off with Fitzy.
26:48This has been a very, very popular name this season.
26:50A little bit of bang up in camps recently, which I don't know.
26:54In my mind, like, please, like, cool down the cost a little bit if that were to happen.
26:59But you want to talk about Jalen Waddle. So Jalen Waddle at 21 on this list.
27:04Hit us with him. I just feel like he should be in the teens somewhere at wide receiver.
27:09I've got him at wide receiver 16. The Broncos traded a first-round pick and a third-round pick.
27:14Well, they traded, I think, a third and a fourth and got back an earlier fourth.
27:18But regardless, Jalen Waddle is going to be the featured receiver in Sean Payton's offense, and they gave up a lot to get him.
27:25It's worth remembering that as the featured receiver in Sean Payton's offense, Michael Thomas had three 100-catch seasons, including a 147-catch season, plus a 90-catch season.
27:32Now, Michael Thomas and Jalen Waddle, different body types, different skill sets.
27:36But like Michael Thomas, Jalen Waddle will be the focal point of Sean Payton's passing game.
27:40And Waddle is just good, man. He's a former sixth overall draft pick who began his career with three straight 1,000-yard seasons
27:47in Miami, two of which came when he was playing with peak Tyreek Hill, who had more than 1,700 yards in those two seasons.
27:53Waddle is averaged 9.3 yards per target, 2.07 yards per route run for his career.
27:58This is just too low a ranking, I think, for him.
28:01And Jake, I'm actually a big fat liar because it was in my formatting.
28:05Technically, this is another situation like the last one.
28:07Technically, Waddle is the start of Tier 4. I just didn't see that when I was doing this.
28:12So the tier, yeah, yeah, it was just how I formatted.
28:16Tier 3 was still, it's still a big tier, but Tier 4 actually starts with Waddle and goes all the way down before Tate.
28:22So it's 21 through 29. This is a big tier, but Jalen Waddle kind of owns this.
28:27This is one of those guys, though. This is just my personal take.
28:31I think he belongs in the tier above. I would personally have him in the same range as the Garrett Wilsons and the Emeka Ekbuka.
28:38I actually think I have Waddle and Ekbuka right next to each other.
28:42So I think he is a tier above. But again, I just want to correct that.
28:46That is Tier 4 for anybody price checking me on that.
28:49And then what is your take on Jalen Waddle this year?
28:52So, yeah, I do have him in the conversation with the name of the person I'm going to bring up, including like
28:59a Garrett Wilsons and all the rest, which is going to surprise because this is one where like I'm not 100% lockstep
29:05with my projections, but I know Fitz will want me to be because this is one where I'm kind of like, man,
29:11can't believe it's spitting out this way. Projections wise, Jalen Waddle is why was your 14?
29:16I don't have him ranked there. But because of what he's saying about being featured, 134 targets is really what it comes down to.
29:23And my biggest concern of Waddle is that the touchdowns probably don't ever get to the double digits because that's not who he is.
29:29But even in this offense, 134 targets, we're talking about my line for him is 89, 1132 and seven touchdowns.
29:35Put some, I mean, a fraction, like it's not even a full point in front of Devontae Smith at 15 to kind
29:41of give you an idea and just barely behind Zay Flowers.
29:44That's the conversation. But the Zay Flowers is a good one because with Zay Flowers, we just see doesn't need a ton
29:51of touchdowns to be a fringe wide receiver one or even better.
29:54So this is one where I do like Waddle.
29:57I have him a little bit higher than what the rank shows here, but I don't have him as high as my projections.
30:03And like I said, Fitz probably wants me to put him in line with his projections because he has them solidly inside the teens.
30:10And I get it. Honestly, I get it. If you want him in this tier over the rest of the names, I have no problem with it.
30:18Your projections want him, not just Fitz. Your projections want him higher.
30:21That's what I'm saying. Yeah. Did you say where you have him ranked, Jake?
30:25I have him without looking. He's like 18, 19.
30:28Okay. All right. Just barely. You guys want to take a guess where the aggregate projection puts him in?
30:33Again, it's taking multiple projection sources and it's averaging it out.
30:36And there's plenty of other really great systems out there.
30:39It doesn't include mine. So I'm guessing it's very like, I guess he's going to be like 19th.
30:44Yeah, 20. Fitz, you want to take a guess?
30:47I was going to say 20. Try 27. There's 27 on that list.
30:50Wait a minute. This is half PPR. I'm going to throw mine.
30:54Yeah, I'm going to hand it all over. It's like 74 catches, which I think is the thing that might be holding that down.
31:01So I think that's a really interesting one. Jake, your wide receivers won.
31:04I did some shorts on for fantasy pros. I agree.
31:07I think this is like an undervalued player. The touch on equity is high.
31:11Unfortunately, the substation's already had its stranglehold on every single 49er.
31:14But Mike Evans is the player that I think a lot of us have a hyper focus on touchdowns.
31:20That's mine. Yeah. Well, but you do it. Mike Evans is your player.
31:23I ruined it for you. No, you spoiled it because I was going to be like, this wide receiver, I have at 20th in my projections.
31:31Oh, you're going to sell the story? Yeah, yeah.
31:33Okay. Yeah, I was going to sell the story first.
31:36Sorry. Now you've already like, you flipped to the back page, unfortunately.
31:39I get too excited when 49ers come up here.
31:42But Mike Evans is about the only... Do any 49ers.
31:45The one left? The one left standing? Yeah, the only guy left.
31:48The only rodeo in town here for the 49ers in the past few years.
31:52You're going to have to update your tweet that went viral last year with the way you're going to swap out Christian
31:58McCaffrey for Mike Evans sucking all the power to stay healthy out of everybody else.
32:03Well, I mean, none of them are playing right now.
32:06So they're all in the void. So there you go.
32:08But my thing about Mike Evans is the number of times that he's failed to have 1,000 yards, the number of times
32:15that he's failed to finish inside the top 18 in fantasy points per game.
32:19Big Fat won last year. Last year was the first time.
32:22Hasn't had 1,000 yards. Hasn't finished top 18 in fantasy points per game.
32:25Hasn't had nearly 200 points in every single season other than that.
32:29And I'm just looking for the bounce back. You brought it up.
32:32It's the opportunity. He's going to be the one.
32:35If he was going to other teams with like...
32:37If he was playing with Kyler Murray, I'd be more concerned because the thing about Brock Purdy, he's one of the most efficient touchdown throwers in the league.
32:45And that's the real thing is if you look at Brock Purdy, the yards and the touchdowns for him versus most other
32:52quarterbacks, it just doesn't line up the same. He usually throws so much better because the Shanahan offense is so successful for everybody, including Brock's fit.
32:59Brock Purdy is not Brock Purdy, probably on 29 of the other 31 teams.
33:03He's just not. It's just a great fit. And I think Mike Evans is going to step in and be his one.
33:09And that was already a thing that I was believing in before the Ricky Pearsall injury who's now out for the season and all the weapons.
33:17And I know they're talking positively about George Kittle, but I'm not worried about Mike Evans with George Kittle.
33:22I'm not worried about Mike Evans with Christian McCaffrey.
33:25We're not worried about the number one with those two options because we've seen this before.
33:29It's the dance of the worry about when there's a third, fourth, fifth option.
33:33But as you said, I don't really have to worry about that.
33:36And the one thing that we do know is going to hold true is no matter how many people were, if everybody
33:43somehow stayed healthy and Pearsall was playing this year, Mike Evans was still going to be the touchdown maker for this team.
33:49Shout out to anybody who knows the rainmaker from AEW.
33:52But that's what I think of when I think of Mike Evans.
33:55And I'm going to have him a lot of my teams than I have so far.
34:00I told you it was going to be positive this entire show.
34:03Yeah, not used to it. It's crazy. Fitzy, what do you think?
34:07Do you think Mike Evans is getting a little too much traction?
34:10Not that he's made any big major moves, but is there any hesitation that you have with Mike Evans and the change of offense?
34:17And Jake did point out, I just want to just make this clear.
34:20You pointed out, you know, he's only finished once.
34:23You know, you're Dr. Strange over here. There's only one time he hasn't done it, but it was last year.
34:29So is there a falling knife effect? As a guy, the trajectory is like just a really good value.
34:34I guess my hesitation is that I've got him at the back end of my sort of wide receiver two tier.
34:40I feel like I could move. That's okay. What rank is that?
34:43Yeah, 26, which sounds disrespectful. But I feel like I could put him 10 spots higher.
34:48It's five spots. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I could honestly have him wide receiver 17, Jake.
34:53And like, I wouldn't feel bad about that because I, the only hesitation is that he is about to turn 33 in like 10 days.
35:00That's, you know, the injuries after being an Ironman for most of his career, the injuries have started to come a little more frequently.
35:06That's pretty much it. Like, I think if he stays healthy, he's going to have a terrific season and I'll regret having him wide receiver 26.
35:14Shout out Mike Evans. Happy birthday. Happy pre-birthday for all the drafters out there.
35:18All right. Let's go and talk about our 31 through 40 wide receivers.
35:22But just want to remind you guys, if you guys are enjoying the content that we're doing on this episode or any
35:28of them, make sure that you are liking and subscribing over on Fantasy Pros for the YouTube side.
35:33You can drop comments below. Tell us what you dig in.
35:36Interact with us. We appreciate that. But all the likes and the subscribes on YouTube help us out.
35:41So make sure you do that. Let's go 31 through 40.
35:44This is the actual tier five. So tier five started at Carnell Tate.
35:48So these guys are actually tier five. Didn't screw that up here.
35:51We've got Marvin Harrison Jr. At 31. Parker Washington at 32.
35:54DK Metcalf. Brian Thomas Jr. Alec Pierce. Cortland Sutton.
35:57Chris Godwin. Jordan Tyson. Michael Pittman. And Michael Wilson at 40.
36:00Two Cardinals in there. So 31 through 40. Jake, you are going to talk about the player that I sure, sure wanted
36:06to draft and I got sniped in. They're flipping to the back page again?
36:10Yeah. I really wanted it. I'm not going to say the name.
36:14Yeah. But I'm going to let you. I'm going to let you do the thing here.
36:18So set us up here for the positive take on the upcoming wide receiver you want to focus on.
36:24The player? This is another one similar to Waddle.
36:26I have him at 26. My projections have him at 19.
36:29By the way, both of those numbers after the bye last year would still be under what he just did, which was
36:36wide receiver 11 in fancy points per game for the second half of the season.
36:40And if you look at it, it's even potentially higher in PPR.
36:43I think he was like nine or something like that with the ascension of Trevor Lawrence in this offense and his number
36:50one target being Parker Washington, which what's crazy about this is because you started off the show by asking like everything's positive.
36:56Let's talk about all these names. There has been nothing but drool inducing positivity spinning out of the Jaguars camp about the
37:02connection between Parker Washington continuing from last year about how great he looks about Trevor Lawrence.
37:07It's his guy. It's his guy. It's his guy.
37:09It's his guy. Has there been a bigger one, by the way, just as a side?
37:14Can you think off the top of your head of a...
37:17No, and that's what's so crazy about it is that he's still where he is in the ranks and the ADP and everything.
37:23Like this one's baffling to me. And this has come from somebody that loves Brian Thomas.
37:28I've referenced it before. I have a signed football behind me because I got it when he was a rookie because I wanted it before everybody jumped on.
37:36But the thing about Parker Washington, which by the way, before we recorded this, just torched Travis Hunter in camp, by the way.
37:42And everybody's talking about like the big for the big play.
37:45And maybe Travis Hunter is not playing offense or defense.
37:48But anyway, that being said, is that Trevor Lawrence's style with Liam Cohen, they both mesh to what they do well.
37:54This was something that you saw from Liam Cohen in the past.
37:58This is something you saw from Trevor Lawrence for his career.
38:01First reads, first reads, first reads. The problem with kill Brian Thomas is that when Jacoby Myers got in the mix and
38:07Brian Thomas was being sent 15, 20 yards downfield, Trevor Lawrence doesn't make it to his third or fourth read often because
38:13he's finally capitalizing on his talent that we thought he had coming out of Clemson.
38:18He's comfortable and he's not only making those decisions quickly, he's on point with those decisions.
38:22Parker Washington has just been his boy. I understand people are concerned because we were coming off the year before Brian Thomas being such a spectacular rookie.
38:30And now there is Jacoby Myers still in the fold.
38:33Travis Hunter might get some of the snaps. Brenner Strange kind of broke out a little bit as a tight end.
38:39There's a lot of weapons. And similar to what Fitz was saying before is too many mouths to feed.
38:44I would be concerned if it wasn't the style fit.
38:47And what the style fit is, it's a first read.
38:50If Parker Washington was the second, that's why I have a little bit of concern about Brian Thomas, even though I want him to bounce back.
38:57But Parker should not be down in this list.
39:00I have him sat, like I said, I'm at 26.
39:02My projections, I hope the projections are right because then I'm still getting the benefit of even at 26, I'm not buying
39:09all the risk because he's still going to finish higher because it hasn't at 19.
39:13So funny you say that. But Fitzy, I obviously want to get your take on Parker Washington.
39:18But what do you think Parker Washington has to finish at to be a positive return for people?
39:23Now, obviously, if he's drafted at 32 and you get 25, you should look at that.
39:27But I'm saying like from the mental aspect of how much hype is going on, probably going to go a little bit higher than what ECR is putting.
39:35What do you think the general rank has to be for people to be like, yep, everyone or Jake or you were right about Parker Washington?
39:43What does that look like to you? Low end wide receiver two, high end wide receiver three.
39:48So to finish about maybe- 25, 26? Yeah. Top 25?
39:50Or close to that just outside it, maybe where I've got him, which is like wide receiver 28.
39:56And I'm like, I want to stay ahead of ADP.
39:58That would be, but I didn't mean to interrupt you, but like, you think people would feel good?
40:04Like, people would be like, I'm sure glad I listened to the hype and drafted Parker Washington because he finished wide receiver 28.
40:10I'm kind of shoving into your guys' face. Like, I think we're at the point where like, he's got to be a top 20 wide receiver.
40:17And then like, if he's 25, everyone's like, okay, cool.
40:20I just got the return of him. But I'm wrong about that.
40:24Fitz, but I would agree with you if it wasn't still where it was.
40:28Like, to start off what my entire point was, is that we're not there yet.
40:32Like, it still feels like people are going to be- I agree with what Fitz was saying.
40:37I feel like people would still be happy if he was wide receiver 24 because despite all the hype, it doesn't seem like anybody wants to latch on.
40:45Rather than a numerical ranking, let's just say like Parker Washington has to be the sort of player that you are starting every week if he's healthy.
40:52That's a good way to put it. You're putting him in your lineup every week.
40:57Like, especially at least in leagues where you have to start three receivers.
41:00Okay. That's fair. And by the way, his ADP was 32.
41:03So that's one thing I was looking at. It's coming up.
41:07It is coming up. Yeah, it's starting. It's starting to move up.
41:10I think you actually said that in a really good way that he's got to finish as a startable third wide receiver.
41:16His real time ADP. So again, fantasypros.com slash NFL slash real time ADP.
41:20You can just type in fantasy pros real time ADP.
41:23He's now wide receiver 30. So he has moved up.
41:26So the ADP, the overarching taking from multiple sites is wide receiver 32.
41:29But the real time ADP over the last seven days, he's moved up to wide receiver 30.
41:34So now we're creeping in. So I just feel like he's just singularly one of those players that like he has got all the hype.
41:41There is so much expectation. It's like, if he doesn't finish as a wide receiver too, I think people are going to be like, what was the deal?
41:49Like, why did I make such a big deal about drafting him?
41:53Honestly, it's fair. Yeah. If you look at him post by his game log, it's not too dissimilar of his day flowers.
41:59Oh, and they're like, this has three single digit performances.
42:02The rest are in the teens and even twenties.
42:04And that's a very safe. Who just finished as a wide receiver one.
42:08Well, I love the conversation. But you really got me sparked when it was like, there really is no other player that
42:14has received the amount of praise day in and day out.
42:17Like this guy's going to be a top 15 wide receiver.
42:20Yeah. You would see him going inside the top 20 at this point.
42:24If you would think he's going to like just unquestionably outperform Garrett Wilson at this point with the way he's talked about.
42:30All right. Let's get negative. Fitzy, you got a wide receiver, which I think we all kind of agree with.
42:36I want to love this guy. But you, I'm going to kind of project here and say that you don't like the
42:42rank of where he's at because of a lot of the big questions for your, so your wide receiver in this range
42:48is who it's Alec Pierce, whose ECR is wide receiver 35.
42:52I want to talk about the rank. I feel like it's kind of a follow the money ranking.
42:57And, you know, the Colts gave Alec Pierce this Scrooge McDuck money.
43:00Shout out Jake Seeley. So he's going to be a featured receiver because he got this money.
43:05But then you've got the ankle complications like Pierce had ankle surgery and Marsh still isn't practicing.
43:10The Colts are still saying they expect him to be ready for week one.
43:14But the situation is pretty murky. But more than that, I wonder if Alec Pierce is really going to play that much
43:20different a role than he played last season. I mean, he only averaged 5.6 targets a game last year.
43:25And the average depth of target was 18.9 yards.
43:28And he averaged 21.3 yards per catch. He's led the league in yards per catch each of the last two years.
43:34And my first thought after Pierce did get the big contract from the Colts was that he's going to be more of a complete receiver.
43:41More of a Jordy Nelson who, during his peak years in Green Bay, had a pair of 150 target seasons.
43:47But there is value to what Alec Pierce has been doing for the Colts.
43:51Like not only for the splash plays, the long receptions, but also for the space he creates for other players.
43:56For Josh Downs and Tyler Warren to work underneath.
43:59For Jonathan Taylor to run against six and seven man boxes rather than seven and eight man boxes.
44:04That thought had sort of crossed my mind a little bit.
44:07And then I heard Ben Gretsch talking about it.
44:10And Ben's one of the sharpest analysts in the business.
44:13Like he's talked about how the NFL values a guy like Alec Pierce and what he does, even if he isn't necessarily
44:19a threat to catch 80 or 90 passes in a season.
44:22So maybe the Alec Pierce role isn't really going to change all that much.
44:26And if it doesn't, like he's going to be the same sort of volatile ass that he was last year.
44:32It's just interesting. The questions of the injury. That's what puts us in quite, I mean, he's like, I think he's an easy guy to want to target.
44:40It's just the time that he's going to be out there and playing, you know, at 35, 35, it's baking it in,
44:46I think relatively, but there was a time he was going around the thirties.
44:50Jake, what's your take on Alec Pierce here upside in that offense versus.
44:53The kind of mystery injury that's lingering. Oh, the only mystery is just like, when are we going to get him back?
45:00And does that matter? There's another question to it.
45:02We get so hyper-focused on like, oh yeah, he's not doing this stuff now, but if he's out there for week one, what does all this matter?
45:10Or if he misses two weeks, what does that really change in what fantasy value he can still provide for the rest of the season?
45:17So I don't hate his rank right now as much if we knew the ankle was fine.
45:22And I know that the team came out and they said it wasn't a second PRP ejection.
45:27And that was way back in January and all that type of stuff.
45:30But there's just so much around it. This is kind of like Malik neighbors from two months ago.
45:35Like, we just don't know what to do. Like, and to be the fact that he's still not on the field this
45:42close to the season leads a lot of questions to like, what is he going to be to start the year for
45:48somebody where I don't disagree too much with what Fitz takes was.
45:51And the fact that like, I do see if he was a hundred percent healthy and he was out there and we didn't have this issue.
45:59And like the whole ankle thing was gone by June and where he's out there playing and practicing right now, I think top 25 is in play.
46:06I think it's very much what we'd expect as a potential Cortland Sutton season is that not the highest level of targets,
46:13maybe a little bit more targets for Sutton. But I bring up the fact of like that line of 70 receptions, a
46:19thousand to 1100 yards, six, seven, eight touchdowns. That's a very Alec Pierce type line that we can expect over the course
46:25of an entire season, which puts you in the mid twenties for wide receivers, which is kind of replaceable when we're talking
46:31about how big this tier is, which comes back to what I agree with Fitz the most here is just, that's why
46:38I would put them in least in the thirties, if not potentially a little bit further back.
46:42Cause why, like, what's the appeal of investing in somebody like that?
46:46You know, it's going to be 18, four, 16, seven, like it's going to be bouncing all over the place, but why
46:52invest in that when we still have so many questions around him?
46:56And then if he's not a hundred percent to start the season and starts off slow, my next player, by the way,
47:02and the tight end, we might get to the end of the season.
47:05He's starting targets for the entire year and game in and game out.
47:09Like the target share is always third. And by the way, with the injury, that that's the frustrating part of it.
47:15We don't get any clues about the role because he's not practicing.
47:19Like, it would be cool if we were getting these reports, like, Hey, they ran a wide receiver screen to Alec Pierce today.
47:25They're running him on all these crossing right routes.
47:28Now then we know, okay, maybe he is going to run a more complete route tree and be this, uh, you know,
47:34have the potential to have 30 or four or 30 to 40 more targets than he's ever had before.
47:39But we just don't know. I really love the idea.
47:42If I can get him as a wide receiver for in drafts, if I can have, if I have a three wide
47:48receiver set up and I can have my three wide receivers locked in, and then you can kind of take that risk
47:55because if that route tree expands, sky's the limit.
47:57Uh, but I also agree. Yeah. But Jake, the guy you're going to talk about in the next round is kind of
48:03like, I don't know how Pierce goes above that guy, which we'll talk about, but, uh, that is a little teaser for
48:10you because, uh, Fitzy gets to go first as we're going to be talking about our 41 through fifties here.
48:15So this is a continuation of tier five and then the start of tier six.
48:20So coming in at 41 is Quentin Johnston followed by Josh Downs, Wanda Robinson, Makai Lemon, Jordan Addison, Jacoby Myers, and Jaden Reed.
48:26Stop. That is the end of tier five. Tier six starts at 48 with Xavier Worthy, Jaden Higgins, and Khalil Shakir.
48:32Pat, you are talking about a wide receiver, a rookie wide receiver.
48:35You're talking about a wide receiver. I'm going to disagree with a rookie wide receiver here.
48:40Oh, is this a disagreement? Okay, good. I don't know.
48:43I don't know which way he's going because in the forties, I don't know.
48:47Go ahead. All right. Well, drum roll Fitzy. Talk about him.
48:50I think Makai Lemon's too low at wide receiver 44.
48:53We agree. Okay, good. I thought we were going to disagree finally.
48:56So I'm sure part of it is the hamstring injury he's been dealing with, but he has been jogging and I believe
49:02he was back on the practice field today, Tuesday, August 11th.
49:06The Eagles traded up to take Makai Lemon in the first round.
49:09Oh, by the way, it was the smartest GM in football trading up to get him.
49:14And I know Howie Roseman was also the guy who took Jalen Rager over Justin Jefferson.
49:18But, you know, A.J. Brown is gone. Devontae Smith is going to be the lead guy.
49:23But can Makai Lemon be the Robin to Devontae's skinny Batman?
49:26He absolutely can. Lemon was just, he was electric at USC last year.
49:291,100 yards, 11 touchdowns. Winner of the Blintnikoff Award is the best receiver in college football.
49:34If you want to get excited about Makai Lemon, go to YouTube and look up Makai Lemon versus Iowa.
49:39Like, Iowa's defense last season was no joke. And Lemon had a monster game against the Hawkeyes.
49:44Like, that game will give you an appreciation for just how good Makai Lemon's hands are.
49:49Like, his hands were like flypaper in that game.
49:51He averaged better than three yards per route run against both Mann and Zone last year.
49:56And according to the Twitter account Football Insights, the only other receivers to average better than three yards against both Mann and
50:02Zone in their final college seasons over the last six years, Jamar Chase, Devontae Smith, Jalen Waddell, Jackson Smith and Jigba, and Dwayne Eskridge.
50:09Okay, so four out of five ain't bad. I know I'm not going to get any pushback from Jake on whether Jalen
50:15Hurts can be effective throwing over the middle. I know we both agree that he can be.
50:20Right now, Fantasy Pro's real-time ADP shows Lemon going 116th overall, right behind Michael Pittman.
50:24Pittman is going to be catching passes from dusty old Aaron Rodgers, and it's hard for me to imagine Michael Pittman being
50:31a guy people want to start every week. Like, more likely he's going to be just adequate injury or bi-week fill-in.
50:36Makai Lemon actually has a chance to be a guy you feel good about having in your life.
50:42lineup every week. All right, Jake, you did not disagree.
50:44You were hoping there was some disagreement, but do you think Makai Lemon is also too low?
50:49At this fact that he's in the 40s, like if he was still in the 30s, I think a lot of, like, Pitt says, the injury.
50:57Injury is concerning for a rookie. It's concerning for any rookie, whether a running back, wide receiver, whatever it is.
51:02But his not being out there, if he is back at practice, it's great to see.
51:07If not, you know, that's a little bit why he should be in the lower 30s.
51:11And I understand I might get a few first two or three weeks start off slow.
51:16And that's something I'm willing to invest in because of the talent.
51:19Yeah. I know as soon as Pitt said that with Howie Roseman, everybody was ready to type in the comments already.
51:25What about this wide receiver, this wide receiver, this wide receiver, this wide receiver?
51:29He sucks at drafting wide receivers. Admittedly, he's got pretty much one Devonta Smith that he's drafted very well.
51:35All the rest have kind of stunk. But there haven't been a ton of first and second rounders.
51:40I know everybody brings up the Rager thing like he did.
51:43But also at the same time, like it's not the only coach or sorry, vice president in the NFL to like miss on draft picks like that.
51:51And technically, Fizz brought up, technically they traded for him.
51:53He's been really good about trading for wide receivers.
51:56I just want to throw that out there. But Makai Lemon's fit, you talk about like it's not only over the middle.
52:02He said it like one of the best downfield last year in all of the college football, even the power five conferences.
52:08And the fit is just terrific to be the number two alongside Devonta Smith.
52:12And that's really what I think. I think the fact that he should be in the lower 30s still higher than this
52:19because you might have to wait a few weeks to get the true Makai Lemon.
52:23But I think in this offense where we're seeing more from Mannion, potentially more under center and play action, it's going to
52:29open things up in the passing game. And show that people don't really think it can happen.
52:34But Jalen Hurts knows how to throw over the middle of the field.
52:38Makai Lemon or Alec Pierce? Jake. As of today, Lemon.
52:41Like, because at least I, you know, I know I'm waiting the two or three weeks.
52:45Like Alec Pierce, we might get to the start of the season and be like, oh, you're waiting six.
52:51Surprise. Fitzy, same thing. Yeah, Lemon. Oh, and by the way.
52:54You know what Pierce is starting to feel like to me?
52:57Remember Christian McCaffrey? He's going to be fine. He's going to be fine.
53:00He's going to be fine. He's going to be fine.
53:03Oh, he's out for the year. Like, that's kind of where I'm starting to feel with like Alec Pierce.
53:09Where are we going to go, Fitzy? I was just going to say that in real-time ADP, there is a defense being drafted ahead of Makai Lemon.
53:16That's true. The Denver defense. Three spots. Come on, guys.
53:19Be better than that. How about one more? Makai Lemon or DK Metcalf, Fitz?
53:23Right. Only because of the hamstring, I've got Lemon behind Metcalf.
53:26If Lemon is practicing in full by the end of the week, I'll move Lemon past Metcalf.
53:31Ooh, and you said Metcalf? Yeah, exact same answer.
53:34Okay. All right. There you go. I thought I'd have a little fun with that.
53:38All right. Jake, we were talking about this. We were teasing this with the Alec Pierce side, your wide receiver.
53:44It's just one of those where I'm like, I don't know why we're taking Alec Pierce over.
53:48Josh Downs. Why weren't we drafting Josh Downs his entire offseason?
53:52To begin with, let's present a whole other universe.
53:54We'll go to the Marvel Cinematic Universe here. Uh, Pierce is healthy.
53:58Why are you still not drafting Josh Downs? He's the number two.
54:01He's the number two. Somebody who's been talking about, about this team.
54:04The fit with Daniel Jones being a better fit than Anthony Richardson, obviously, and whether or not Anthony Richardson's even with this team.
54:11But you're one, two, and three, if healthy as of today.
54:14Pierce, Downs, and Warren. That's three. Look at the depth chart behind those.
54:18They're not going to be doing a whole lot to the other ancillary pieces unless Pierce is out and they're going to force their hand.
54:25But even in that aspect, we might see Downs starting off the season until we get Pierce healthy with a 22 to 25% target share, if not more.
54:33And Warren's going to be in that same conversation, to be clear.
54:36Tease the tight end show? I'm in on Warren.
54:39You can have him, Fitz, because we'll just both be on him.
54:42But Downs' value is just the fact that he's the number two and the number two on most offenses you're talking about this range.
54:49I mean, where is he? He's down in like the 40, what is he, 43rd or 44th?
54:54I forget where you pulled up. I just looked away.
54:57He is 42. 42. Attested. So 42. He should be going up there in that conversation at two is like Chris Godwin.
55:03At least at this, like, and I think that Chris Godwin might be telling the truth, that he feels better than he did at any point last year.
55:11But we're still talking about week one. Best case scenario, Godwin's to two.
55:14There's a world where Downs starts the season as the one for the Colts, and that's really what it comes down to.
55:21Bitsy, what do you think about Josh Downs? Obviously, we were talking Alec Pierce here, but where are you at on Josh Downs?
55:27Yeah, no, I have moved him up. I've had sort of a reckoning with Josh Downs.
55:32I like him. I've always liked the player. It was just mostly about him.
55:36Well, one, not a lot of touchdown production so far in his career.
55:39Maybe that could change a little bit. He's not a big guy.
55:43I mean, he's never going to be a guy you're throwing fade routes to in the end zone.
55:48But he does have some upward mobility, I think, with touchdowns.
55:51But he is now a guy who is going to be on the field in 12 personnel situations.
55:56When it's two receivers, before, he was always the odd man out because it was Pierce and Pittman.
56:01But now you're not going to be playing Nick Westbrook-Akine or Ashton Doolin over Josh Downs in two receiver sets.
56:07So I feel much better about him. So fun fact on the aggregate projections, Josh Downs is ranked two spots higher than Makai Lemon.
56:14So they are near each other. So take that for either side.
56:17But they are pretty close to each other. But Josh Downs, two spots higher.
56:21All right. Our final group of wide receivers here.
56:24We're giving you 51 through 60. And then we'll pick out two more names here.
56:28At 51. This is a continuation, by the way, of tier six.
56:31These guys are all tier six. We've got Jalen Coker at 51.
56:35Romeo Dobbs at 52. Casey Concepcion at 53. Matthew Golden.
56:38Rashid Shahid. Juwan Jennings. Jerry Judy. Omar Cooper Jr.
56:40Adonai Mitchell. And Debo Samuel coming in at 40.
56:43So we'll point out a couple guys we talked about at the top.
56:46We did not see Stribbling show up on this list.
56:49No Lane. So a couple guys missing out of here.
56:52But some really interesting ones. And Pat, you are going to not talk about Stribbling.
56:56You're going to talk about the other 49er that made this list.
57:00Good old Debo Samuel. The return of Debo. So hit us with, is this too high, too low?
57:05Why are we drafting him? Or this is too good of a value?
57:09I'm five spots higher, five receiver spots higher than ECR and Debo.
57:12So he's 60 in ECR. I'm 55. And I feel like I could be higher than that.
57:17It felt like Debo was unimpactful for the Commanders last season.
57:20He had 72 catches for them. And three other fun facts about Debo's 2025 season.
57:24One, he was wide receiver 25 in PPR scoring last year.
57:27Two, he was within 10 total PPR fantasy points of Drake London, Devontae Smith, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Emeka Buka last year.
57:34And three, Debo had three games last year in which he scored more than 20 PPR points.
57:39Now he's back in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Debo knows this offense.
57:42I personally don't believe that Dejon Stribbling is going to outproduce Debo Samuel this year.
57:46So, yeah, I mean, Debo is going to be there at the end of drafts.
57:50And I think I'm going to start taking him.
57:53That's kind of a fun, not even like a hot take, but like pseudo hot take, because there's so much, you know,
57:59Grant Cohen, the best wide receiver is Stribbling. And it's like, okay, that's an interesting one.
58:04I do think there could be some package based stuff that's used with Debo.
58:08That doesn't mean he's not going to be efficient.
58:10Probably why also, like, I know they're trying out all these different running backs, but you can get him doing that.
58:16You know, you're going to be able to let him get back to the yak that he does and stretch out the field.
58:23But I sometimes worry they might limit some of the overall plays and get into more gadget stuff.
58:28But at the same time, they're probably going to put him in a target space.
58:32Like they're going to be targeting when they get him out there.
58:36And he's a real touchdown scare. I think it's a really interesting take the Debo outperforming Stribbling there.
58:41What do you think, Jake, about Debo versus the rest of that crew?
58:44And him being fantasy relevant really is the big question.
58:47Yeah, I want to know why Fitz hates him.
58:50I have him 48. So that's first. Oh, nice.
58:52Nice. But it's everything that he said. But here, you know, you brought up something which I think would be a concern for a lot of people.
59:00But let's take that concern and say, all right, let's say he ends up being Stefan Diggs from last year.
59:06He was only used 65% of the time and then was still targeted heavily when it happened, who was a fringe wide receiver too during that stretch.
59:13And so that's the real thing is that the worst case scenario and the good thing about it is Debo Samuel also
59:20last year was playing a little bit out of place.
59:22He like really needs a number one in front of him to stay, like I know to stay healthy the entire season
59:29with a quarterback play that can actually be better than what he was dealing with a lot of time last year as well.
59:35But being that number two again, where he just doesn't have to draw the attention.
59:39He can play alongside somebody like Mike Evans. And I just think that the upside is here and the upside is that
59:46you're taking him as a wide receiver for and we're like worried that he's going to be Stefan Diggs from last year.
59:52Yeah, you want to find here's another fun one on the aggregate projections Debo Samuel is projected for more points in half
59:58PPR than Quentin Johnston, Michael Wilson down. So we talked about Diggs or Chris Godwin.
60:02So not that it's like an insane group of where he's at of as far as where he ranks, but he is
60:09projected pretty high because of what he's going to do in the rushing game projected around if we round up around six touchdowns total.
60:15And just to be fair, like that could that could go to nine or 10 with Debo Samuel and how they use him in the offense.
60:23So he's a really, really interesting late pick. The final one here, Jake, you're going to finish us off here with a
60:29wide receiver that has been talked about. A couple of our analysts here at Fantasy Pros really like this guy.
60:35He comes in inside this 51 to 60 range and you've been so positive.
60:39I have to imagine that you think he is underrated here.
60:42I am. My projections actually have this wide receiver in front of downs, in front of Brian Thomas and Chris Godwin and
60:48Makai Lemon and Jaden Reed and Debo Samuel and Michael Wilson to just kind of give you an idea.
60:54And while I was writing an article for The Athletic because I'm doing my guys, the ones that I've ended up with the most so far.
61:01And I went through and I looked at the past five years.
61:04So the past, because projections come into play here as I'm making this case to set is that the past five years
61:11when a wide receivers had at least 500 routes run and 100 targets, you're projecting usage here, right?
61:16The average fantasy points for a season there, 181.
61:18That's the median, by the way, because I didn't want to skew for the top end like a Cooper cup and stuff like that.
61:25That's the median, 181.4 points. That checks you in as almost a top 20 wide receiver.
61:30And I'm not ranking him anywhere near there. But if you look at Jalen Coker, stepping into this season is what expected
61:36to be the number two as the Panthers paid him to be when they didn't need to.
61:41They're like, here's an extension. That was our clear sign.
61:44The team told us, listen and watch what the team is telling you.
61:47They said, he's our number two. He's our number two going forward.
61:51Flashed at times last year with his ability to kind of be like a big slotty type of situation.
61:56Um, actually one of those things is that he'll play a slot a little bit more than Ted Arone McMillan will.
62:02He'll only stay kicked outside, which actually plays pretty well there too.
62:05It's actually a really, very good blend between the two of them with Bryce Young, who's going to be the reason whether he succeeds or fails, obviously.
62:13But you talk about those numbers. And then I threw one more in there.
62:17If you also have a 20% team target share or better, that number actually jumps and you end up being top 18 every single year.
62:24Again, not saying Jalen Coker is going to be a number two.
62:28I'm just saying it's very rare for a wide receiver.
62:30There were ones that finished. Those are median outcomes.
62:33Actually, Jerry Judy is the only wide receiver in the last five years who had all three of those numbers, but didn't
62:39even finish inside the top 40, just to give you an idea of how bad.
62:43So like worst case scenario, you get Jerry Judy last year.
62:47But the point being is we're projecting that he's going to be the number two with those routes with a hundred plus
62:53targets, with the target share hovering around 20% and even adequate quarterback play with a talent like Coker, which again, there's a
62:59lot of projecting here, but he should be at least a wide receiver three as long as he stays healthy and gets those numbers.
63:06Where do you have him ranked? I have him ranked.
63:09I told my projections. I was on the projections page.
63:12You should know this stuff there. I have him alongside, I have him in the mid forties alongside like the Quentin Johnsons
63:18and the Michael Pittmans and Wandel Robinsons at the world.
63:21Yeah. So qualifies under rank. I feel like it's low too.
63:24Like I want to put him higher. Well, it seems low based off of everything you just were laying out to us,
63:30but that's a tough range to get to. Put my money where I'm at.
63:34Should I just do it? I'll change it live.
63:37I'll put him as a wide receiver three. Thank you.
63:39Fitzy, what do you think about Jalen Coker? Do you think he's undervalued here?
63:43Yeah. Yeah, Jake's upsetting me because he's forcing me to have a rankings reckoning with Jalen Coker.
63:48I'm right in line with ECR, but I do like him more than that.
63:52Like some people pointed out, oh, yeah, targeted Ted Oroa McMillan in the playoff game against the Rams.
63:57Like, all right, come on. He's not going to be on Ted Oroa McMillan's level, but targets could be really concentrated in this offense.
64:04And I know they're Bryce Young targets, which, you know, not as worth as targets from a lot of other quarterbacks.
64:10But Chris Brazel got hurt. Xavier Leggett does not look like he's going to pan out.
64:15The Panthers have like nothing at tight end. So the number two receiver in this offense could be in some ways more
64:21valuable than the number two receiver in a lot of other offenses.
64:2460 wide receivers in. There's even more over on the Fantasy Pros ranks.
64:28Go and check them out. You can check all the different styles of PPR standard.
64:32If you still play touchdown heavy, whether you want to look at Superflex, fantasypros.com slash NFL slash rankings.
64:37You can peruse those. Those are what we referenced today.
64:40You also can find ADP and real-time ADP. Go type that in.
64:44Fantasy Pros, real-time ADP, real ADP. Either one of those will get you there.
64:48And check out all the adjustments over the last 24 hours or the last week.
64:52You can see what is changing through and, you know, whether it's like big hype and also just kind of seeing the
64:58climb of players I think is really interesting. Guys like Stephon Diggs obviously have signed and have moved.
65:03So go and check those things out. But let us know what you guys think in the comments below.
65:09Some of your favorite wide receivers. Maybe some that you're fading and don't agree with versus ranks and tiers.
65:14Make sure to go study up. Do all that.
65:16And jump in the draft simulator and test out some of these targets that we've been talking about and maybe some players to avoid.
65:23That's going to do it for this episode. For Pat Fitzmaurice and Mr.
65:27Jake Seeley, I'm Chris Welsh. Good luck in your drafting.
65:30We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
65:33Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
65:36If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
65:44Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros.
65:47And subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
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