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NFC West 2026: Every Team's Ceiling, Floor & Breakout Player (Ep. 2053)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 12, 2026
Published
Fri, June 12, 2026
33
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceBaker MayfieldMyles GarrettTyler WarrenAaron DonaldAlaric JacksonBrock PurdyChristian KirkChristian McCaffreyDaniel JonesDavante AdamsGeorge KittleJared VerseJaylen Watson
Player analysis

Player insights

33

Aaron Donald

PositiveProjection0:27

Donald is expected to come out of retirement and join the Rams, likely waiting until late in training camp to avoid the full camp grind, similar to a veteran move.

Insight page

Alaric Jackson

NegativeDepth Chart0:22

Jackson is in the news for negative reasons, creating potential depth concerns on the Rams' offensive line if he misses time or gets suspended.

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Alec Pierce

NegativeInjury0:14

Alec Pierce is dealing with an ankle injury and will be late in his recovery, potentially not ready until the end of training camp, with his Week 1 status up in the air.

Insight page
PositiveRole0:15

Despite being signed to be the Colts' wide receiver one, Alec Pierce faces significant competition for targets from Josh Downs (who has one of the highest target rates per route run) and Tyler Warren (who led the team in targets last year as a rookie).

Insight page
NegativeValue0:16

Alec Pierce's ADP continues to dip and he is currently being drafted around wide receiver 36, reflecting the market's lack of aggressive interest in him.

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Baker Mayfield

PositiveProjection0:05

Baker Mayfield is in contract negotiations with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and is reportedly nowhere close to agreeing to a new deal, though the hosts believe this is posturing and both sides will eventually reach terms.

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NegativeInjury0:06

Baker Mayfield has a history of playing through injuries that has impacted his performance. He played poorly down the stretch last year with Tampa Bay because he was injured, and in Cleveland he battled shoulder injuries that contributed to his departure from the team.

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PositiveProjection0:09

Baker Mayfield had an MVP-level first half last season and was a 4,500 yard, 41 touchdown passer just a year removed, making him a valuable asset the Buccaneers should not let walk at age 31.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection0:31

Purdy is described as a 'system quarterback' who excels in the 49ers' system; he was taken last in the NFL Draft but has proven he's better than that draft position, showing that landing in the right system matters.

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Christian Kirk

NegativeProjection0:32

Kirk is described as 'underwhelming' in the 49ers' receiving corps.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveProjection0:32

McCaffrey stayed healthy last year despite 400+ touches and is a key weapon for the 49ers' offense.

Insight page

Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection0:15

Daniel Jones is expected to be 100% ready to go in Week 1 for the Colts, though there is a question about how effective he will be as the quarterback.

Insight page

Davante Adams

NegativeInjury0:22

Adams was banged up last year and is getting older, adding to concerns about the Rams' top-heavy offensive roster.

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George Kittle

NegativeInjury0:32

Kittle is coming off an Achilles injury, creating a health concern for the 49ers' offense.

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Jared Verse

PositiveProjection0:25

Verse had more pressures than Myles Garrett last year (finishing second in the NFL in total pressure) but had a much lower sack rate, showing he didn't always convert pressures into sacks.

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Jaylen Watson

PositiveDepth Chart0:25

Watson was added to the Rams' secondary to address their weak pass defense from last year, improving the cornerback position.

Insight page

Jonathan Taylor

PositiveRole0:16

Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the Colts' run game, limiting target opportunities for other offensive players like Alec Pierce.

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Josh Downs

PositiveUsage0:15

Josh Downs has one of the highest target rates per route run in the league and gets open at a really high rate when on the field, making him a primary target for the Colts offense.

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Matthew Stafford

PositiveInjury0:22

Stafford's health is the most crucial factor for the Rams' success; if he stays healthy, the team will make the playoffs and have a good playoff run, but he's a 'statuesque quarterback with back issues' that could derail the offense.

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Michael Pittman

PositiveRole0:15

Michael Pittman is another quality receiving option on the Colts alongside Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren, competing for targets in the offense.

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Mike Evans

NegativeInjury0:32

Evans is 47 years old and has chronic hamstring issues, creating durability concerns for the 49ers' receiving corps.

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Myles Garrett

PositiveRole0:20

Garrett joined the Rams and was visibly happy at training camp, described as having 'a smile a mile wide.' He's the reigning sack record breaker who will have a major impact on the Rams' defense.

Insight page
PositiveProjection0:25

Garrett is positioned as the key to the Rams' Super Bowl chances, with the ability to convert pressures into sacks at a higher rate than his predecessor Jared Verse, who had more pressures but fewer sacks last year.

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PositiveProjection0:30

Garrett is expected to win Defensive Player of the Year again, with odds around 3-to-1, making it one of the best bets on the board for the Rams.

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Nick Bosa

PositiveInjury0:33

Bosa is expected to return and will be a key part of the 49ers' defensive line, which should improve if he comes back healthy.

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Patrick Mahomes

NegativeProjection0:12

Patrick Mahomes signed a two-year extension making him $64 million per year, the new high watermark for the league, which the hosts view as bad timing given the Chiefs' cap space concerns.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeInjury0:22

Nakua has been banged up in recent years and is a health concern for the Rams' offense, contributing to the top-heavy nature of their roster.

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Ricky Pearsall

NegativeProjection0:32

Pearsall has yet to really flash his full potential and has had a host of different injuries, creating concerns about his development.

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Sam Darnold

PositiveProjection0:31

Darnold would not have had the same success in the 49ers' system as Brock Purdy, suggesting the system is crucial to the quarterback's performance.

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Trent McDuffie

PositiveProjection0:25

McDuffie is an All-Pro cornerback and lockdown shutdown-type player who was added to strengthen the Rams' secondary.

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Trent Williams

PositiveProjection0:37

Williams is the anchor of the 49ers' offensive line, though the rest of the line is questionable.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveRole0:15

Tyler Warren led the Colts in targets as a rookie tight end last year and tight ends typically improve from year one to year two, suggesting increased target volume for Warren.

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PositiveProjection0:16

Tyler Warren is expected to lead the Colts in targets this season, and the hosts believe he is undervalued in fantasy drafts relative to his upside.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

901
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Listen to Drink Champs from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeart Radio app,
0:06Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We've got a lot of fun stuff planned for the next couple weeks, so
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0:25Not too shabby, folks. Again, how do you win?
0:28You subscribe to Tailgate NFL, you drop your comments below, like this video, can't hurt your chances.
0:32And shout out to everybody who's been watching us and subscribing to.
0:36We're over a thousand already. We hope to be over five thousand by the time we get to NFL season.
0:41And who knows? End of the year, maybe ten thousand, maybe more.
0:45Yesterday, if you missed the show, you can go back and watch it on demand.
0:49We talked a little bit about the New York Knicks, because even though it's a football show, we're still friends.
0:55We talk about stuff. And we talked about Elmo getting dragged on the internet.
0:59All is forgiven now because of the incredible evening of basketball that was provided.
1:02The dramatic comeback. It's just sports. It's just incredible.
1:05That kind of comeback for even the most casual NBA fan, which I am even below that standard.
1:10And Derek Brown might even be a natch below that.
1:13Did you watch the comeback? Did you see any of it, D-Bro, yesterday?
1:17So, that's the story that I wanted to tell you guys.
1:20Yeah, it's the last night I was scrolling through the channels on old YouTube TV and I happened to come across the
1:26game and I was like, Oh, I haven't watched a single second of any NBA playoff basketball anything.
1:31Nothing. I happened to come across the game and turn it on with exactly 5.7 seconds left.
1:36Oh my God. And the play happens. And I'm like, holy crap.
1:39Like what is the chances of turning it on?
1:42D-Bro's running around his house smacking children around. I know.
1:44I was like, look at us. Woo! My wife and I don't give a crap about NBA and we're both watching this
1:51and all like, did that just happen? Did we just turn it on at this particular moment?
1:55Woo! So yes, I got you tuned in for the best of it.
1:59Yes. Yeah, that was certainly the best of it.
2:02Andrew Erickson, you were in the infirmary, I believe.
2:04Dending some wounds from the dog, I want to say.
2:07No, I was puppy. Show everybody what's happened to you.
2:10Yeah. Put it way up by your face. I don't know if the boss is.
2:14Just shoot away. Just shoot away. Cujo. Cujo for all the young people here who don't know who that is.
2:20Some blood from the puppy arch. But I actually did turn on the game as well.
2:24I turned it on, looked at the score, turned to my wife and said, Well, this game's over.
2:29We're just going to go to bed. Whatever. Little dingo.
2:32And then I'm like on, because we were watching TV in the bedroom, so I'm like half asleep.
2:37She's like still watching it. And she's trying to talk to me about like this epic comeback that's about to happen.
2:43And she's, they're closing the gap. They're down by 10.
2:46They're down by six. They're down by three. And I'm just like, yeah, yeah.
2:50Half asleep. Yeah. And then I wake up this morning and I then it all, I realized that they actually won.
2:56And I text her and I say, Taylor, did you really, the Knicks won last night?
3:00She's like, yeah, I know. I watched the game, but you didn't.
3:04Yeah. Yeah. Because Andrew Ayrick goes to bed at 830 at night.
3:07We all know this. Well, let's not bring up early bedtimes here on the program.
3:11All right, let's get to some, it was a beautiful moment.
3:14Like, you know, what's happening. I know there's some negativity going on in the streets of New York.
3:19It gets amplified. I get it. Uh, side tangent real fast.
3:22Did y'all see Charles Barkley's breakdown of that? He's like, this is a terrible game.
3:27It's worst game I've ever seen. Well, he's right.
3:29He's I mean, it's not wrong. Like teams with a lead that don't play like a lead.
3:34It's the stuff that I coach with my 14.
3:36You girls for God's sakes. Like, Hey, you got to lead play.
3:40Like you have a lead because they're playing against you and the clock.
3:44And when you have a 30 point lead going into the second half of a game, you sit on it.
3:49You don't take eight straight threes and you just run down the court and keep lobbing balls up.
3:54Like what the hell are you doing? Not good.
3:57Shooter. Shoot every 30 second. What would Kyle Shanahan have done?
4:00What would Kyle Shanahan have? That's why how many rings does Kyle Shanahan have is what I always say.
4:05Run the damn ball. Stop showing everybody. You're the smartest guy in the room.
4:09Go Belichick was boring AF and he has a bunch of rings because he was boring AF.
4:14He played with a lead when he had a lead and everyone's like, oh, it's good to win.
4:19These Patriot games were a bit of a slog.
4:22Yeah, they are. They are. And they want a lot of them.
4:25But look, it's it's I know there's like some negativity on the Internet about, you know, some of the bad apples in the Big Apple.
4:32But overall, the majority of like the beautiful moments that are going on there where these crowds are watching games on the
4:38sides of buildings like the energy is infectious is unbelievable.
4:41I got never seen anything. This is my whole I've been like, I'm a New Yorker.
4:45I'm old fart. Like I've never seen anything quite like this ever.
4:49Not Mets, Yankees, not anything. I think it's because of the gap of like eight generations that haven't seen them win.
4:55It's unbelievable. And so I guess tailgate is now like all purpose sports now today.
4:59So I will hate it yesterday. Love it. Starts today as well.
5:02Well, it's soccer ball. We'll talk football. Well, the real football football is life.
5:06The last thing I want to say before we kind of transition here, boys, the only thing that that grinded my gears
5:12about all of that stuff last night was when they're showing all of the fans reacting to what just transpired.
5:18We don't need five straight minutes of like, let's get every single celeb in the building and see how they feel.
5:24We do. The next one. We get television. We get casual fans.
5:27Yeah, it's fine. I mean, we are televised programs of celebrities dressed up in fancy outfits.
5:32Like that's a thing that people watch. So, of course, they're going to want to see the reactions here after a big basketball game like this.
5:39So, D bro, it takes wrong. I totally want to see Larry Davis reaction to everything, like just generally speaking, because he's an amusing human.
5:46All right. Let's talk about some quarterbacks getting paid because, you know, that never happens in the NFL.
5:51We'll start there today. Baker Mayfield said he's nowhere close to agreeing to a new contract with the Buccaneers.
5:57Now, the Buccaneers need Baker Mayfield. Okay. The year before it was magical, pretty strong for the year before that as well.
6:03Since he's come to Tampa, he has been the franchise quarterback.
6:06I assume we're going to get everything right here eventually.
6:09But does anyone else have a feeling at all that that is not the case?
6:13Because I think these two sides need each other.
6:16It's just a matter of working out the money.
6:18And it doesn't help that once again, Mahomes restructures his contract and gets paid more.
6:22We'll talk about that in a second. Erickson, I think this is posturing.
6:26I think this is nonsense. You can't not go into, you know, I think free agency with Baker Mayfield, like testing the waters in the NFL.
6:33Yeah, that's not a great recipe for success for the Buccaneers.
6:36Although, from their standpoint, how do you get the best out of Baker Mayfield is make him an underdog.
6:42Make him like, you've got to earn this contract.
6:44You know, maybe it's eight weeks through the season and you're putting up MVP level numbers like you were in the first half of last year.
6:52Stop playing three injuries. Here's, I think maybe to a point with Mayfield, he needs to come to grips with, I can't play three injuries anymore.
6:59If I am hurt and can't play at 100% or close to 100% where I'm operating at an elite level, I got
7:05to, I don't know if I can go on the field because this has happened to him multiple times.
7:10Last year with Tampa Bay played horrible down the stretch because he was injured in Cleveland.
7:15That's why he part of the reason why he got run out of Cleveland is because he was batting through shoulder injuries and he's banged up.
7:22He's a warrior. We know that. That's what we love about Baker Mayfield.
7:26But at the same time, if I'm his agent, I'm like, dude, try to get you paid, man.
7:31Like another big contract is 31 years old. So yeah, I think that ultimately they'll probably come to terms at some point, but I don't know.
7:38That's not like sword though. Like, cause that's what teams want, isn't it?
7:42They want the guy that's going to be tough and be the warrior and play through injuries and be a team leader, right?
7:48Until the performance suffers and then everybody kills him for the performance suffering.
7:52You're kind of screwed either way, aren't you? Yeah.
7:55And Baker knows this like Erickson talked about. He knows this all too well.
7:59So is it time for Baker to start making business decisions instead of real life decisions to where he's like, I have been the good soldier.
8:06I have gone out there and I have played with like on one leg without the ability to throw the ball at a hundred percent.
8:13Like at what point is he like, fine. You want to drag me through the mud whenever you think you got leverage.
8:19Cause I didn't play as well because I went out there to sit here and try to will us to victory.
8:25Despite playing behind a battered offensive line, Mike Evans in and out of the lineup.
8:29Chris Godwin in and out of the lineup. Jalen McMillan hurt for most of the year.
8:34Uh, yeah, but sure. I'm the one that sucks.
8:36Don't pay me. I think with the way that all these situations usually work out, we just call this the Jerry Jones
8:43effect is if you're going to pay the guy, just pay the damn guy.
8:46Because eventually if you're going to pay the guy and the longer you wait, you're just going to end up paying him more.
8:53Right. How does that sound business? Between you and the organization, that whole thing happened.
8:57I'll tell you what, there's one team out there though, that I think should be monitoring this situation very closely and sending signals to him.
9:04Cause they're a team that's kind of in limbo.
9:07No, not the jets. Cause they're going to have a high draft pick.
9:10Okay. A team that's going to win more games in the jets, but not enough to be relevant.
9:15Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah. He fits the mold of a Pittsburgh gutty quarterback kind of thing.
9:20The quarterback. Hey, he's got a little bit of that, uh, a little bit of that gunslinger in him.
9:25Like far, you know, I mean, to me, this is exactly the guy that Pittsburgh Steelers should be looking at for the future.
9:32If they can shake and lose from the Buccaneers.
9:34And look, if the Buccaneers aren't good this year, coach gets fired.
9:37Maybe they do strip things down. I don't know.
9:40I mean, I think it would be a massive mistake to let the quarterback walk at 31 years old, two years removed
9:46or a year removed from a 4,500 yard season with 41 touchdowns.
9:50I would not do that. But if I'm the Pittsburgh Steelers, I say, here you go.
9:54Here's the check. You write it and you come back to me and then we go play football.
9:59That's what I would do. Who's the, that point.
10:02Who's the backup in Tampa Bay? I don't know.
10:04It was Bridgewater last year, but I don't think he's on the team.
10:08I will tell you, no, he's quarterback with the line.
10:11It is Jake Browning. Oh God. The show. The show.
10:13Jake Browning. So there you go. Real quick guys.
10:16If Baker doesn't stay with Tampa, where else? I mean, we just kind of threw out that as a landing spot.
10:22I'll also say, could he go to the Carolina Panthers?
10:25See, I'm going to say no. Yeah. But that's why I say no.
10:28Cause he's got a history there. Like that's a team that had it.
10:32You know, he's not going to Atlanta. He's not going to have a reunion with the way that ended.
10:37So Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns not happening. Not happening.
10:40Not happening. Those would be the best situations for a guy like Baker Mayfield.
10:44I feel like to go into. Oh, what about the Houston Texans?
10:47If they finally get done with the CJ's trout mess.
10:50And they're like, Hey, that's a tough. We're a Baker away from a super bowl, dude.
10:55I, I think it's more likely he would play for like, honestly, the Rams staffer tires.
10:59Let's say Ty Simson's not it. They get through an entire year and they're like, we made a mistake.
11:04We should not have drafted this guy. And then bringing Baker Mayfield 32 years old to an offense into a team that's
11:11already built to win the super bowl. We already saw what Baker Mayfield did with Sean McVay in like a week.
11:17And I think that would be kind of exciting too.
11:19Again, that's only if I'm still there. Yeah. Yeah.
11:22But if it goes well, they all leave. And it depends on who goes in there.
11:26It's the shuffle of things. I think McCarthy's not going anywhere for a while, regardless of how they perform.
11:32They should know I agreed. And McCarthy, I think is a viable coach.
11:35Like if you're Baker Mayfield, there's a lot you can learn from Mike McCarthy.
11:39Okay. By far the best, probably quarterback minded coach that he's ever played for, except maybe Sean McVay.
11:44But again, played for as an air quotes, because it wasn't a very long time.
11:49My last, my last spot. Kyler moves on. They still hate JJ, the Minnesota Vikings.
11:53Yeah. I like that. That's not terrible either. That's not a bad one either.
11:57But maybe, I mean, he doesn't get that black and gold.
12:00Black and gold mentality there. Like Baker Mayfield, Steel City, baby.
12:03Like they would love to play the Browns twice a year.
12:06Gets to play the Browns. I'm sold. I'm sold.
12:09Baker would love that. Yeah. Spiteful Baker, baby, as a Pittsburgh Steeler.
12:12Okay. Yeah. Speaking of quarterbacks, Mahomes two year extension.
12:15Okay. So now he's going to make $64 million a year.
12:18That's a new high watermark for the league. Just when I thought the chiefs were trying to figure out the cap space and make things better.
12:25Does this make things better? Anybody? No, I feel like this is kind of like a bad timing for this move, but
12:31I guess you got to keep Patrick Mahomes happy.
12:34Is that it? I guess, man. This just felt weird.
12:36It was like, did you really have to do this?
12:39Like, is this just often you're going to keep upping the ante of my homes will be the number one paid quarterback in the NFL.
12:46Blah, blah. It's like, I mean, is that what happens from this last two years?
12:51Is that the only thing that is that really the only thing that's changed?
12:54I just figured that this was just like moving money around to free up, you know, restructured salary cap, et cetera, for the next couple years.
13:02It just felt weird, dude. Yeah, but it's like, it's a very short term window in which it does that from what I'm gleaning from the, the deal.
13:10I don't know. Was Tom Brady ever the highest played quarterback?
13:13No. Not to my knowledge. I could not confirm or tell you.
13:16I had no idea if he was ever. I'm curious because he restructured his contract so many times.
13:21So they could sign more guys. It does depend on how you.
13:25Briefly. Yeah, he was only one accurate. Is that just what the A.I.
13:28is saying? Well, I mean, it's giving me a readout of all of them.
13:32So one time in 2010, he signed a four year, seventy two million dollar extension that made him the highest at the time.
13:39But what year was that one? Two thousand ten.
13:41Oh, so after like right before his like second MVP, I think.
13:45Yeah. And Erickson was a wee lad at that point.
13:47He was just a boy. I remember that. But interesting.
13:50It was only in his twenty three years seasons.
13:53Twenty three seasons, rather. Only one time was he ever that.
13:56Famously took pay cuts. So yeah. I mean, look, and that's the odd thing about some of these guys.
14:01It's like, it's like, do you want to get your ass cut?
14:05If only Mahomes would take the pay cut for the team.
14:08Ah, nah. Alec Pierce. Let's talk about him for a second.
14:11Now there's this is a little. It was like, everything's fine.
14:14We're signing. Everything's cool. Now, all of a sudden we're getting news that he's going to be late in his recovery.
14:20Maybe sometimes towards the end of camp. He's got an ankle injury for those people who don't know.
14:25And his status is kind of up in the air for week one right now.
14:29Erickson, this feels a little like, I don't know, like we've got to hide this news a little bit from us.
14:35And now it's sort of slowly drip, drip, dripping out.
14:38And I don't like the sound of this at all.
14:41I also do not like the sound of this.
14:43I knew that he was dealing with something that was keeping out of OTAs, but it was the expectations to be back for training camp.
14:50So this news was actually pretty noteworthy for me as, oh, and I was going to miss training camp or parts of training camp.
14:57So he's going to be in a new role this year as the Colts wide receiver one.
15:02However, when you look at the optics of the way the Colts offense is built, I know, Joey, that you're the number one Colts fan.
15:09Daniel Jones is going to be 100% ready to go in week one.
15:12It's not good for Daniel Jones. This is our team.
15:15We bleed blue. That's one of the questions is just how effective is Daniel Jones?
15:19The second thing is he has to compete with guys that command targets at a really high rate.
15:25Josh Downs had one of the highest target rate per outruns last year, the year before, because when he's on the field,
15:31he gets open at a really high rate. And the same thing with Tyler Warren.
15:35He led the team of targets last year. The Colts rookie tight end.
15:39Tight ends tend to get better jumping from year one to year two.
15:42So is he going to see more targets than Alec Pierce?
15:45So although it seemed like they were really gun ho on making him the guy this season by the amount that they
15:52paid him, it's not like he's the only. He's not the last man standing, even with Michael Pittman.
15:57They have really good other options to throw the ball to.
16:00And obviously, Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the run game.
16:03So Alec Pierce, to me again, his ADP continues to dip.
16:06I mean, he's like wide receiver 36. So clearly the market's not super aggressive on him anyway, as it should.
16:12But I mean, yeah, it's definitely not a ring.
16:14He's wheels up for Tyler Warren. That's how I would say.
16:17I was going to say, that's my big takeaway.
16:20Tyler Warren is going to lead this team in targets and we're too low on Tyler Warren's upside.
16:25I mean, he's tight. Yeah, he's tight in four.
16:28He's in a weird spot in drafts because he's after the big three with Lovett McBride and Bowers and then Tyler Warren.
16:34I think he's right. He's in a good tight.
16:36It's not about him versus the other tight ends, really, because I think he's consensus tight on four, but it's him versus
16:43the running backs receivers and elite quarterbacks that go in his range and fantasy draft.
16:47So he's interesting. All right. Does this make this like a quiet Stefan Diggs possible landing spot?
16:52If Alec Pierce continues to be out, you just want to like, are you his agent?
16:56Like you are really no, but Stefan Diggs. I mean, literally you could put him on every team that has, has a thin wide receiver depth chart.
17:04Like we're talking about, it's, it's, it's really thin dude.
17:06It's like Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce. And after that, it's Nick Westbrook, Akine, Ashton Doolin, Dion Burks, Anthony Gold, Laquan Treadwell, Coleman Owen, Wolf.
17:14I think, I think Diggs is more likely to go to the commanders if they just don't do this Brandon Iyuk thing.
17:20He's from, he went to Maryland. I think that makes more sense than him going to like Indianapolis.
17:25So just saying. All right. Before we move on to the NFC West and all the previews there, don't forget to support our sponsor, Hard Rock Bet.
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18:23Keith Giamonca seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad. But secretly, he became someone else.
18:27A master of disguise who went on a crime spree.
18:30At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea?
18:32It seemed very crazy. But I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out.
18:38Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like?
18:43No. I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success.
18:46Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life?
18:52That is not the look of an innocent man.
18:55This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue.
19:01Listen to Deep Cover The Family Man on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
19:07Mainstream media is full of cruel depictions of the unhoused.
19:09Stories that shame and blame and paint the unhoused as a monolith.
19:13We the Unhoused is the podcast that's changing that.
19:15I'm Theo Henderson, creator and host. And for years, I've created a space where the unhoused and their advocates can tell their own stories.
19:22In the last few months alone, I've interviewed unhoused parents, immigrants, mutual aid organizers, veterans, the LGBTQIA plus community, and the policymakers
19:28who make the laws that impact the unhoused existence.
19:31We the Unhoused is a two-time Webby and Signal Award winning show with many exciting guests on the horizon.
19:36Tune in this week for my interview with Dr.
19:39Jill Wittcheron, a street doctor turned influencer whose work with the unhoused community has made a huge impact online and in her community.
19:45Listen to We the Unhoused on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
19:50June is Black Music Month, and on the Drink Champs podcast, we're speaking with the hottest names in the culture, like Sway Lee.
19:57Do you realize how legendary you are? I appreciate that.
19:59I be seeing it, but I'm like, man, I still got like so much more to do.
20:04Like Prince, he dropped like 30 albums. We dropped like five right now.
20:08That's the rate we gotta be going. Yep, that's a good attitude.
20:11You also hear stories from industry legends and hip hop pioneers like Fab Five Freddy.
20:15I directed one of Nas's early videos. Which one?
20:18One Love. Wow! Yes. I literally filmed in his apartment in Queensbridge.
20:21Wow. His moms were still up in that apartment.
20:24Nas was just beginning to the apartment. His pops used to live near me in Harlem.
20:28His dad introduced him to a whole lot of, you know, conscious stuff, and he made a young prodigy.
20:34No matter the era, Drink Champs brings you the biggest names and the most unfiltered conversations.
20:38Listen to Drink Champs from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
20:44Let's start at the top, gentlemen, with the Rams, shall we?
20:47Pretty fun off season for after a very weird like NFL draft vibes were not good.
20:52Couple weeks later, all of a sudden, Myles Garrett's there.
20:55I've never seen a human being as happy as Myles Garrett walking around training camp.
20:59He has a smile, a mile wide, or miles wide.
21:02You can even say, thank you. I'll see myself out.
21:05Dad joke for you. And then he froze. I love it.
21:08Then he froze right after that. He's like, I'm out.
21:11Made my best joke of the whole entire show and I'm out.
21:14I didn't even prepare it to just came up.
21:16So, obviously, we know we have a reigning MVP here.
21:19We have a great head coach. You have Aaron Donald thinking about returning.
21:23I mean, there's certainly a momentum here, but D bro, I feel like sometimes this momentum with all these stars, especially aging
21:29stars, doesn't always go the way we think it's going to go.
21:33So I look at the schedule. It's tough. I look, obviously, you know, the Rams had some challenges last year with some
21:39health issues, a little bit of Devante Adams issues, a little bit of Puka Takui issues.
21:43They're deep at running back, but it certainly seems like this is a team that's a favorite for everything for a good reason.
21:50Do you think they're a worthy favorite in your opinion?
21:52I think they are a very worthy favorite, but we also have to talk about like this roster as good as it is.
21:59You're going to say it's top heavy, and I'm going to say the same thing, which is every year.
22:04I feel like it's very top heavy, but the other part about this is I just feel like this tepidness of like
22:11we're all in on it and it's like does this go horribly?
22:14I don't want it to for the Rams and the Rams fans and stuff, but it's like you're a Matthew Stafford injury
22:20away from you're not a Super Bowl contender anymore.
22:23Puka Nakua has been banged up in the last few years.
22:26Devante Adams was banged up last year. He's getting older as well.
22:29Alaric Jackson is in the news for all the wrong reasons that the offensive line has been banged up in previous seasons.
22:35I you know, I would say I feel actually better about the depth on the defensive side and the state of their
22:41defense than I do about the top heavy nature of their offense again going back to and I know this point has been belabored a ton.
22:49How much better would you feel about this offensive situation with Makai Lemon instead of Ty Simpson?
22:54I would feel a ton better or an offensive lineman because we were also either if we weren't mocking Makai Lemon to
23:00this team or you know, pick your wide receiver flavor to your Jordan Tyson.
23:04What have you? We were mocking an offensive lineman if Larry Jackson misses time or gets suspended or whatever because of what
23:10he he's in the news cycle right now. If that happens, you're down on offensive lineman and you have a statuesque quarterback with back issues.
23:17Is that great? Not so much. So the Rams like sure like I I'm willing to talk about their their roster is freaking awesome.
23:24Yeah, they're Super Bowl favorites and they probably win the Super Bowl and all that kind of stuff.
23:29I'm just saying I've got a bad feeling like this could go sideways and it's not really hard to see how it could Erickson your statuesque.
23:36To me, it's about Matthew Stafford chiseled chain healthy, right?
23:39You got the chiseled chin. It's got the riz.
23:41He's got the whole thing going on there. Oh, mogging for the camera later.
23:45Let's mog off. We're trying to get more people to watch our videos.
23:49Not like we're Rams maxing here. Yeah. Yeah. Put the tiny hammer away.
23:53Yeah, good enough. But to me, it's just about more than anything.
23:56It's Matthew Stafford health. If Matthew Stafford healthy, we find a way we will be a playoff team here for the Rams
24:02and we will go on to have a pretty good playoff run.
24:06He finds a way. So I think that is the the most crucial thing more than anything else, because of all the
24:12depth challenges that Debro point out very astutely, the depth challenge of quarterback is the one that undoes them at the end of the day.
24:19I would agree with that. But what team isn't, you know, depending on their quarterback staying healthy?
24:24Right. Yeah. So I don't want to like over bear that type of conversation.
24:28And I mean, who knows if Ty Simpson has to start a couple games this year?
24:32Maybe he's good. Maybe he's not. It's an option at least they have and they can always hit up Jim McGraw.
24:38He's a free agent. We know he knows this offense.
24:41And I think that he would be the first guy Sean McVay calls if there was some type of injury flare up with Matthew Stafford in his back.
24:49So I think that overall their offense is going to be top five.
24:52They're going to be locked and loaded. Honestly, I think that the reason they win the Super Bowl this year is their defense getting miles scared again.
25:00The highlight of their offseason. The Rams were fourth in pressure rate last season.
25:04They just added the reigning sack record breaker in miles Garrett.
25:07And the thing that the big difference between him and Jared Verse Jared Verse actually had more pressures than miles Garrett did
25:13last year, but he had a much lower sac.
25:16He had less than double digit sacks despite finishing second in the NFL and total pressure.
25:20So he didn't always come away with the sack at the end of the day at the end of the play.
25:26That's what miles Garrett does every single time other things to note to what was the poor part of this Rams defense last year was a secondary.
25:34So what do they do? Jalen Watson and Trent McDuffie.
25:37Trent McDuffie is an all pro cornerback, like he is a lockdown shutdown type of guy.
25:41Another really cool point about the Rams to last year led the NFL and dropped interceptions 10 dropped.
25:46Oh, really interesting stat. That's a really good. So when those then become game flipping field flipping type of plays.
25:52Okay. Now you're getting short field. You're not have to be as reliant on the office because Matthew Stafford's not going to win MVP again.
25:59He's not going to throw as many touchdowns. The office isn't going to be as good as it was last year because
26:05of the point and reasons that Debra laid out to my dad is another year older.
26:10Maybe Puka doesn't play as many games, but to make up for that, they just get the best defensive player in football
26:16over the last like 20 years and miles Garrett to make sure I can make up for it.
26:21I don't know how what the percentage was of double teams that miles Garrett face to because I think that's the difference.
26:27Also dictates where the team runs the ball. Well, that's what I'm saying is like, you know, great.
26:32Jared versus great. I'm big Jared versus fan. Yeah, Jared versus college freaking good.
26:36And I and I wonder Rams got him. I was like, wow, this is going to be a great situation there for him.
26:42Mm hmm. But it's not knock on Jared verse.
26:45You literally have to game plan around miles Garrett.
26:48Like that's that's the problem there. So what effect does that have on the rest of the team?
26:53And to your point, Andrew, it's it's amazing. I had 10 dropped interceptions is a lot.
26:57And yet they still had more interceptions than the Jets, which is unbelievable.
27:01Just don't drop 10 of them. So how everybody had that?
27:04That's I know. I can't wait for the Jets week one pick six.
27:08I'm going to bet. I'm going to be all over.
27:10We're going to pick somebody off. First touchdown. First touchdown of the game.
27:14Pick six cam war. I love him. But if he could just do it, do me a solid throw pick six and week one against the Jets.
27:22Yes or no. Aaron Donald comes out of retirement.
27:24D bro. Yes, dude. Yeah, I'm warming on it.
27:27I think it's going to. I don't think it's going to be one of the I don't think it's going to be Eric Weddle situation.
27:34I think it's like, no, if Aaron Donald's in, he's in.
27:37Oh, he's and he's going to wait till towards the end of training camp because he's just going to take the veteran thing.
27:43Nobody's going to want to do training camp. He's like, whatever, I'll show up and we are.
27:48Don is a psychopath when it comes to you all seen any of the clips like in his whole game.
27:54Bro is just like putting up one 60 on each side.
27:57Oh, my God. Super set in one sixties on the flat bench and then turning into rows and everything else.
28:02And I'm just like, oh, lame. Wow. Psycho. It's funny because like my youngest daughter plays football.
28:07She's just started like weight training stuff now because she's just turning 14.
28:11So, you know, we have the gym once a week for her and her teammates to go to.
28:16So now she's getting familiar with weights and she saw that video and she was like, she's like, is that one hundred and sixty on each hand?
28:24I said, yep. And I took her to show her in the gym what that weight looks like.
28:29And she was like, that's insane. I mean, she was like, I can't even wrap my brain around that.
28:34That's lifting multiple Andrew Erickson's. And that's right. That's it on each side there.
28:38That's an Erickson on each arm. A little lighter now.
28:41Also, that blood from the dog bite. Also, just checking out the schedule there.
28:45They got the Australia game and then they go to host the Giants at SoFi in week two for Monday Night Football homeowner.
28:51So a little weird start to the season in terms of like some of the back and forth they've got to do.
28:57But look, let's talk about the Rams here. Well, let's start with the win total because we think the winter we're going
29:04to do it inverse because the Rams are so highly touted.
29:07Ten or eleven and a half. I bet you it's eleven and a half Erickson.
29:11It's got to be eleven and a half. Eleven and a half it is.
29:15So over is minus one twenty under plus one twenty to make the playoffs.
29:19Minus three seventeen. No is plus four hundred. So obviously this, you know, we all think they're a playoff team, even with issues.
29:25I think they sneak into the playoffs division winners only plus one oh five, which I thought was kind of interesting.
29:31Like it's kind of like, you know, they're factoring in the age and the depth here.
29:36And I think that's fair. Conference winner plus three oh five.
29:39Not bad. Three to one. I kind of like that.
29:42And Super Bowl winners only plus five seventy five.
29:44So that is top of the value. The value's been new.
29:47Especially after they got Miles Garrett. So it's all been.
29:50Yeah, they do considerably. Yeah. It's funny, too, because you would have thought like for the division even like plus one oh five.
29:56Like, yeah, you got the 49ers in there. You got the Seahawks.
30:00Dude, that's what I mean. Like, I'm surprised that it's plus one oh five.
30:04But the Garrett effect has been real on that board.
30:07I would. I think they can win twelve games, but I don't love the situation.
30:11I don't want to bet it, though. So that's the highest win.
30:14I think that's the highest win total in the entire NFL.
30:17I don't know. I bet the over on that conference winner three to one.
30:21I think is the best bet on the board for this team.
30:25That's what I would do or just I think I am or go full full heal and bet them to not make the playoffs.
30:31That's the only thing that I think is on the board, but I don't want to do it.
30:36I'm just saying. So here's how you get your cake and eat it to Matthew Stafford gets hurt.
30:41OK, he misses a couple games. So then how do the Rams win games defense?
30:46Miles Garrett to win defense player of the year again.
30:49Oh, yeah, that's a call. And then very good call.
30:51That's better than a lot of the numbers you just listed off.
30:55I would think it's a number. What is Miles Garrett to win?
30:58I thought it was like three to one. You look it up on betting pros.
31:02In the meantime, we'll talk about San Francisco 49ers week schedule last year.
31:06We all knew it was weak sauce and well, they took advantage of it.
31:10So good on them. Brock Purdy, the king of system quarterbacks.
31:13Good in the system yet again. Don't be surprised him.
31:16Oh, come on. When Matt Jones went out there was dropping 300 yard games.
31:20Come on, dude. Stop it. Call it what it is.
31:23No, you stop. It's successful, but he's a system quarterback and that's OK.
31:26That's OK. That's OK. It's OK to be a system quarterback.
31:29It's not a problem. That's so dismissive. Oh, it's so hard to dismiss the guy who was taken last in the NFL Draft.
31:36And he's proven that he's better than that. It shouldn't have happened.
31:39Yeah. How dare you? You should. You should feel that way.
31:42It's a perfect system for a quarterback of his skill set.
31:45And it's great. This is the this is the poster child for if you land in the right spot, good things can
31:52happen no matter where you get drafted. It's not a knock.
31:55It's just a fact. Anyway, I mean, if you think Sam Darnold wasn't didn't stay in that system, that wouldn't have been all right.
32:01I think it would have been fine. I think the 49ers wouldn't have won the same amount of games last year.
32:07Just saying you can look confused all you want.
32:10It's a fact. Anyway, let's talk about Brock Purdy's weapons here.
32:13We've got one coming off a Achilles injury and George Kittle.
32:16We got one coming off 400 plus touches again in Christian McCaffrey and God bless him.
32:21He stayed healthy last year. We've got Mike Evans, who I love was a Hall of Famer, but he's 47 years old
32:27and he has a chronic hamstring issues. You bring an underwhelming Christian Kirk.
32:30You've got on top of that Ricky Pearsall, who has yet to really flash full potential and he's had a host of different injuries.
32:37It's a bit of a cluster. I think it's San Francisco.
32:40And I don't mean the magnetic kind of cluster that kind of hovers over the practice facility.
32:45I mean an actual cluster in terms of a lot of things that have to break right for them, not to mention
32:51a 37 year old left tackle who also had some injury issues last year.
32:55I'm concerned about the 49ers now that we've raised the bar of the schedule on them a little bit.
33:01Does anyone share my concerns about the 49ers? I mean, I'm concerned too, but just because of this is a roster that's
33:07getting very old, very fast, but you know, so again, like, yes, is it a house of cards with the offense and stuff?
33:13Absolutely. Is the defense a little bit underwhelming, but the other side of it is you could paint them again, going to this.
33:20It's like I could paint a really positive picture about this defense.
33:23If Nick Bosa comes back, they traded for Osa.
33:26So the defensive line, a healthy Dre, Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner.
33:29I feel really good about the defense this year.
33:32If everybody can stay healthy, I do have more of a, I hope the offense can stay healthy for all the things that you outlined, Joey.
33:39So yeah, I've got concerns about the 49ers. Definitely.
33:41Erickson, what are your thoughts on the San Francisco 49ers offense that there's no doubt about the talent and the skill set of it.
33:48And there's no doubt that Kyle Shanahan knows what he's doing when in terms of play calling and as long as it's
33:54not in a pressurized situation where you have to just hold the football and run it to run out clock to win a Super Bowl.
34:01As long as we're staying out of that, we're good.
34:04So talk to me about the situation you see another year older for a 49ers team.
34:09Is the window still open or is it starting to close a little bit?
34:13The fact that they were so close to winning the division last year, despite all of the injuries that happened on their
34:19defense, they had no one left on defense and they still were able to do enough.
34:23At least on the offensive side of the ball, enough on defense to keep themselves in contention.
34:28Now playing a little bit of an easier schedule is always helpful, but it's only easy up to a point because they
34:34still have to face their own division, which we've talked about as one of the toughest divisions in football.
34:40When you're not talking about the Arizona Cardinals between the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks and the obviously the San Francisco 49ers.
34:46So they feel boomer bust, right? A lot of ifs, ands or buts about, well, if this guy stays healthy, this guy stays healthy.
34:53This guy comes back from his season ending injury.
34:55Can he return to form? So there's a wide range of outcomes from the 49ers where you could see them.
35:01Hey, if everything kind of works out, the planets align, then they could be the number one seed and have the best record in all of football.
35:09We could also see the other side of the coin where it's a disaster and this team's picking in the top 10
35:15next year because just things just get unraveled at the seam.
35:18So I lean a little bit more towards the upside case with them just because I'm a believer in Kyle Shanahan and
35:24this offense just it just always cooks and offense tends to be a little bit more sticky year to year than defenses.
35:30I think defensive regression for injuries will just work.
35:33It has to work in their favor. It just simply has to.
35:36I think they bring in Raheem Morris as a replacement.
35:39Robert Sala is a was a good hire for them.
35:42Obviously losing Sala is a big loss for them, but I think that Raheem Morris is a really good defensive coordinator.
35:48So I think that he can at least fill the void somewhat.
35:51So we'll see their schedule again opening up against the Rams on Australia.
35:55That's weird, but it's a game that they could win potentially because it's a weird setting and they're going to be underdogs.
36:01And then after that, it's Miami and Arizona. So you could see and look up his team is three and oh, so
36:07that's where I'm like, OK, I feel like I want to be in on the Niners early when they are healthy.
36:13And Mike Evans hasn't injured his hamstring yet. And Ricky Pearsall is healthy.
36:17And then maybe you try to cash out in one of these prediction markets where it's like, yeah, I got 49ers, you
36:23know, three to one or whatever to win the division.
36:26And other in first place, other teams haven't started out nearly as well.
36:29OK, how can I cash out before things unravel like we've seen with this team that again to your point talking about a top heavy team?
36:37I think for nine is probably more top heavy than even the Rams are, especially when you just I agree defenses and
36:43already going in with some injury questions before we even figure that out.
36:47The other thing I can't shake about the 49ers guys is the absolute ass kicking they got by the Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs.
36:53Like that was, you know, you're supposed to be built and go against the teams in your own division and play them tough.
37:00They got spanked in that game. That game was over in the first quarter.
37:04It was unbelievable. Did it feel like the 49ers ran out of gas?
37:07It was just like everything kind of caught up.
37:10Like, no, that's a great question. You know what it felt like?
37:13It felt like they were completely outclassed. It felt like they had their number.
37:17The coaching staff knew exactly what they wanted to do, and they knew exactly how they wanted to attack the 49ers.
37:23And they just bullied them into submission in the first 15 minutes of that game.
37:27That's what it felt like to me, guys. Shane, he didn't have a counter punch.
37:32He didn't have a counter punch. And like he did that.
37:35Who was left of like, like, was that being happened?
37:38I played in that game, but that was it though.
37:40Who else was left? I, I, that's, that's the only thing I'm, that's fair.
37:44That my other thing about it, that's where it comes back to like the state of their offensive line, which we haven't talked about a ton yet.
37:52Like Trent Williams is the anchor, but the rest of that offensive line is like diamond guard position.
37:57You don't know who's playing guard to the, but it's not an offensive line.
38:01You can impose your will and just run it down their throats.
38:04If you want to do that, like they struggled to run the ball at an efficient clip the entire year until they
38:11like, it got a little bit better than the back half when they got a little bit away from the, the inside outside zone stuff.
38:18And they went more to gap and stuff like that.
38:20But like still, it wasn't ever great. Now, uh, 41 to six, by the way, that score in that playoff game.
38:26Yeah. Yeah. They got, I mean, it was asking curve stopped.
38:29Yeah. They got crushed. And it's funny because if you saw that they played the last time they played each other was
38:36January 3rd before that week 18, right? Week 18.
38:38Yeah. And that was a 13 to three muscle game, right?
38:41It was like, Oh, we're just jockeying for this.
38:44And then whatever the coaching staffs went away, went to their corners and came back with new plans.
38:49Well, one of them came up with a really good plan.
38:52Uh, the other one, I mean, and look, I know it's crowd factor and I know like, and Seattle was on the
38:58road and they still be the 49ers in their own building to a week 18 on the road.
39:03And then when they got easily the best defense in all of football last year.
39:07Yeah. It's funny because they met in September and it was 17, 13 in Seattle.
39:12And then by the time we got to January, it was 13 to three.
39:16And then by the time we got to the playoffs, it was 41 to six.
39:20And at one point they were up, I think it was 24, six at half.
39:24And then it was 34, six in the third quarter.
39:27It was just like, just an embarrassment. And even so, like the embarrassment of the domination of that game too.
39:32Like it was a dominant one. Um, let's talk about the schedule here for this team.
39:37Late November is important. Uh, they have a trip to Dallas, a Mexico city game against the Minnesota Vikings.
39:42And then, uh, they play the Seattle Seahawks in November.
39:45So to Erickson's point, like might be a good start, but circle November on your calendars for this.
39:50That's a reminder to cash out of all 49ers.
39:53That's exactly what I was going to say. The way the cash out moment is week nine set a reminder for me to cash out all 49er bets.
40:01November 1st. Thank you. All right. Let's talk about the, uh, Superbowl for them.
40:05Plus 1900. I'm a pass for me. I don't know.
40:07No. Conference plus 1150. No, no. Division winner plus three 25.
40:10It's intriguing, but I'm a hard pass on this too.
40:13Yeah. I, I, I don't really want to bet anything with this team.
40:17I'm sure there, there would. So we're in total at probably nine and a half.
40:21Uh, well, to make the playoffs minus one 46.
40:24Yes. No. Plus one 45. Win total is nine and a half minus one 40 on the over.
40:29You can get 10 and a half on the under at minus one 25.
40:33I got to tell you, I think Erickson's, I think Erickson, I think you have, you've laid out the path.
40:38Plus three 25 for the division right now. And then sell it off and reinvest in somebody else.
40:43That's what you do. Don't you, don't you De Niro me too.
40:47It's bad enough when he does it. There's only one guy.
40:50He's not wrong. He's not wrong. There's one guy's got that face.
40:53I'm the guy's got that face. You don't have a face.
40:56You need that nose. You're sucking on a lemon.
40:59It's very, it's like the Foster's like bitter beer face commercials.
41:02You're funny guy. You're funny. You tell jokes. It's good.
41:05It's funny jokes. All right. Let's move on to, you know, a team that just won the Superbowl last year.
41:10Nobody seems to give her any respect. I know they lost their offensive coordinator, but Mike McDonald again, credit to him.
41:16Like what a game plan that he had there to spank the 49ers in division, right?
41:21It's hard to beat teams twice in a year, right?
41:24He did it like it's just hard to do.
41:26And he goes out there. He spanks the Patriots to a team that looked like they were the golden child.
41:32They could do no wrong there. He again, a great game plan.
41:35The defense was spectacular last year. I know it hurts to lose the OC.
41:39They promoted from within. So it's not like all of a sudden, you know, Brian Flurry is part of the crew.
41:45So I don't know how much is going to change.
41:48But I think the big thing that's going to change here for this team is Ken Walker's gone.
41:53Zach Charbonnet is not there, which means we're turning over this run game to a bunch of other guys.
41:58So you have Emmanuel Wilson coming in. You draft the Jeterian price.
42:02Erickson. Can those two names carry the torch for this run game?
42:05That was so important to the Seahawks last year.
42:08The way that they want to play the style they want to play on defense.
42:12They need these guys to perform. Can that duo do it?
42:15And if you want to throw George Helani in there, I'll tell you don't.
42:19I am skeptical that they can do it. Just this team was so reliant on the run last year and that set
42:25up everything for Sam Darnold and Jason to absolutely cook from an efficiency standpoint.
42:29I've got concerns with loss of Clint Kubiak. I mean, he was he's been great every spot he's been in as an offensive play caller.
42:36And that's why he was so heavily decorated as a head coach candidate and why he was basically on the free agent
42:42market for five seconds before the Las Vegas Raiders made him their head coach.
42:46So I think it's just a big loss. And we've seen this before with coaches and teams that even coming off of
42:52winning season, Super Bowl winning season, they lose these key coordinators and sometimes it's hard to make up for it.
42:58Now, the defense, to your point with Mike McDonald, dude, like.
43:01Like, unless like they just get destroyed by injuries, even if that's the happen, like the scheme is so good and it's
43:07built to beat all the offenses in the NFL, especially the ones in the division between John McVay and Kyle Shanahan.
43:13The fact that they had the best defense in the NFL and also faced some of the toughest offensive minds week in
43:19and week out and dominated those teams. It's just a credit to how good McDonald is as a head coach defensive mind.
43:26So I think the defense is going to keep them very much in contention.
43:30I just have reservations about if Sam Darnold takes a step back without Kalee Kubiak.
43:34I think they might let him throw the ball a little bit more.
43:37If you look, it's kind of interesting because look how much they've invested in wide receivers versus running backs, right?
43:43They drafted one in the first round at the end of the first round, but they paid JSN.
43:48They extended him. They pay Rashid Shaheed, who they traded for last year, and he wasn't really unlocked in this offense at
43:54all till like very, very late into the year.
43:57So I think that they might actually put more on Sam Darnold's shoulders as opposed to last year, where it was maybe Kubiak calling more of the shots.
44:05So again, Sam Darnold, someone that I think that has always tried to prove people wrong and prove me wrong last year.
44:11I know I was picking against him a lot weeks more often than not, and he was a Super Bowl champion.
44:17And I think that if they're going to repeat, I think it's going to be put more on Sam Darnold's plate.
44:23I think he's got to continue to play at a high level.
44:26Is that a good idea, D-BRO, to put more on Sam Darnold's plate?
44:30Or is the special sauce to Sam Darnold's success limiting his calories?
44:33I think it's definitely him watching his diet. When he goes into the pantry too often for the Twinkie or the late
44:39night snack and stuff, the bad version of Sam Darnold has a tendency to come out.
44:44I eat because I'm unhappy and I'm unhappy because I eat.
44:47I eat, yes. Ask the Vikings about what happened there.
44:50I'm with Erickson that I've got concerns about this offense taking a step back because the efficiency that Clint Kubiak with the
44:56offensive scheme has dialed up, and I understand they're promoting from within, that doesn't always go well because it still comes down
45:02to like you can promote from within and the guy run the same scheme, but he's not pulling the same levers at
45:08certain pain points in a game or calling the same plays or running the same, the run of the offense in the same manner.
45:15And we also need to talk about the fact that Seattle was an incredibly efficient offense.
45:20JSN, he had 44% of the team's receiving yardage market share.
45:23The closest guy behind him last year was Puka at 37%.
45:26So some of that is going to regress. This was an offense last year was that was fourth best in yards per play.
45:32They were sixth best in drives ending in an offensive score.
45:35So those numbers just naturally are going to come down.
45:38And I think a lot of that's going to get tied to Kubiak and it should because I mean the Saints even
45:44go back to the Saints before the entire offense imploded and the team got hurt.
45:49They car was putting up crazy per drop back numbers.
45:51And so they are going to take a step back.
45:54I mean, just look at what happened with the Eagles and they lost Steichen and they kept trying to chase replacing him.
46:00They're still doing that to this day. So I think it's going to be a big thing.
46:05I'm not saying Seattle is going to totally fall off.
46:08They're not going to make the playoffs. They're going to be like a seven win team and stuff because their defense is
46:14still going to be a top five unit. Even talking about their defense, they were the runaway best defense in the entire season.
46:21The entire freaking NFL fine. If you want to have a conversation with them versus the Texans, I get it.
46:26I'll entertain the conversation, but I think we still all so all know that Seattle was the best freaking defense on paper last year.
46:33I think losing Tariq Woolen is also going to play in this secondary is Devon Witherspoon really still really freaking good.
46:39Is Josh Jobe still good? Is Nick Eamon Worry good and he can take another step in the second year?
46:45Okay, fine. All those things can be true. But as pure as Seattle ran last year, there is going to be a certain amount of regression.
46:52The question is how much? Yeah, look, JSN is all world.
46:55Great season for him. I don't see anybody really taking targets from him.
46:59Shahid has his role in the offense. Cooper Cup is dust.
47:02I think pretty much, you know, I'm surprised they didn't do a little bit more unless they think that Torrey Horton, who's healthy, could do more.
47:09But then again, Torrey Horton kind of does what Shahid does.
47:12So I don't really see a path for him.
47:15I think they I mean, I like AJ Barner.
47:17I think he's an underrated. I was the next guy I was going to come to.
47:22Yeah. AJ Barner is a little undervalued. He had multiple surgeries this offseason, too, by the way.
47:27He did. That just came out. He did. So it's it's it's going to be tricky for them to repeat.
47:32But just don't underestimate them, because I remember last year doing betting pro shows with Andrew and the number was eight and a half.
47:39And I was like, I think this is wrong.
47:41I think this is a 10 win team. I just I just like I just thought that she played really well two years ago.
47:48And then last year going in, I was like eight and a half seems kind of like almost disrespectful to a team that played such good defense.
47:56And I still did not in my wildest dreams think they were going to win a Super Bowl.
48:01Let's take a look at the the numbers here for them.
48:04Super Bowl winner to repeat plus eleven fifty. No, thank you.
48:07I'll pass a conference winner plus six fourteen to get back.
48:10I feel now, although it's a nice return six to one.
48:13That's tough to win the division again. Plus two twenty five.
48:16Now this would take I think a Stafford. This is where the Stafford injury or the November swoon of the forty niners.
48:23It would be intriguing here. But I think if you like them to win the division, you wait and let the four diners get out ahead.
48:30So yeah, that's the path for that. That that in season.
48:33Yeah, that's more of it. That's more of a October first bet than a June 11th bet.
48:38We're up today. Yes to make the playoffs minus two twenty five.
48:41So Vegas still thinks they're a playoff team plus two fifty seven to not make the playoffs.
48:46What do you think the win total this year is for the Seahawks gentlemen?
48:50Ten and a half Erickson. I think probably ten and a half.
48:53You are correct boys. Yeah. Under plus one twenty six for the under minus one twenty five for the over.
48:59That's a stay away from me. I'm just gonna.
49:01Yeah, I'm not betting anything with this team. What is the line week one against the Patriots?
49:06Because they are three and a half. It was three and a half.
49:10And now what? What did the Super Bowl close at?
49:13Was it the same line? I believe three and a half, three and a half.
49:17I think it got to four and a half.
49:19Because it's interesting because I think you have to look at the Patriots and say, OK, this team is very different than it was last year.
49:27You're I mean, A.J. Brown, where we like you have totally different receivers that you didn't have last year.
49:32Do you have a healthier in theory? Drake, a healthier Drake, a healthier Will Campbell.
49:36In theory, do you think that this Patriots team in week one took the Patriots to cover?
49:41Yeah, I'm taking the Patriots week one. I missed.
49:44I missed the take the Patriots party. It's four and a half.
49:47Oh, it's four and a half. Sorry, we left you out.
49:50You were doing stuff with your puppy. Joe and I felt like I was fighting for my life against my puppy.
49:56Two Joes on top of you. Let's just sort of make the bet.
50:00Yeah. Plus four and a half right now. Minus one fifteen is what you're getting.
50:04That seems pretty good. Almost like it's smashed again.
50:06Yeah. So I can see that. I can see that going down.
50:10I mean, look, it is in Seattle. OK, so it's going to be a very hype train.
50:15But I also think the Patriots coaching staff is looking their wounds after getting embarrassed in that game.
50:20And I think variable is a smart enough football coach, by the way.
50:23Make a statement. We underestimated the AJ Brown vibes since that trade.
50:27It's a lot more conversation, a lot more social media stuff about AJ Brown and Drake May.
50:32I see a lot of that stuff and a lot less variable stuff.
50:35So timing is everything in life. I'm not spin.
50:38Yeah. As I told you spin, it will be a distant memory.
50:41That scandal by the time you get to training camp.
50:44Nobody cares. Nobody cares. To your point on the national consciousness inside that locker room.
50:48I don't know. You can say the same exact thing, Joey, but inside that locker room, I can tell you nobody cares.
50:54I mean, we're done with the NFC West there.
50:57We've talked about all the relevant teams, so we can talk more about the team.
51:01Well, there's one more team to talk about. It's the Arizona Cardinals.
51:04Oh. Cram it up your cram hole, LeFleur. It's another LeFleur.
51:08Michael LeFleur takes over. Uh, so in the many head coaches that we've had in the history of the Arizona Cardinals.
51:13Um, certainly there's some, some toys here to play with.
51:16I mean, if you're Michael for you gotta be excited about the fact that you've got.
51:21Jeremiah love you've got Trey McBride. You've got. Uh, Michael Wilson coming off a career year and you've got Marvin Harrison jr project that.
51:28If you somehow crack the code there, you could have a lot of fun pieces to play with.
51:33The problem is don't have a quarterback. You don't.
51:35Well, I mean, look, you go over said was admirable at times.
51:39You don't have a quarterback. No, you don't. How many weeks did he start with new England before they're like, we have to play Drake Bay three.
51:46Like, well, let's also not like, let's also put in context, the roster around that team.
51:51That was pretty. Yeah. And they, and they threw Drake Bay into the fire.
51:55Cause they're like, we can't see any more. We're back in Patriots.
51:58Hell. Don't worry. I'm going to bring it to Brown's talk in a second.
52:02Do you think it's bad now? But let's not forget Jacobi kind of cruising with the Browns before it was all Deshaun Watson's healthy again.
52:09Let's put them in. And the rest of the team was like, no, please don't do that.
52:14We're playing good football with Jacobi Brissette and everybody liked him.
52:17And everybody was like, Jacobi Brissette's a wonderful human being.
52:20And he's really good. And this team is gelling right now.
52:23We're playing tough football. We're playing good defense and the offense is doing enough.
52:27Look, Arizona Cardinals are up against it. If they were in a different division, maybe it'd be a different factor, but the facts are the facts.
52:34They're just not. But let's talk about productivity and where they're going forward here because they did draft Carson back.
52:40How many games do we see Carson back get evaluated this year under the circumstances of we assume this is a very sub 500 team Erickson?
52:47How many games? Let's set it at four and a half Carson games.
52:51Easy over. Okay. If that, if you give me that bet right now, it's my favorite Cardinals bet.
52:56Well, you gotta have one. I guess D bro.
52:58Would you go over four and a half too?
53:01I thought it was a good number. Andrew jumped all over it.
53:04He was hot to try it on that bad boy.
53:07I don't know. I think Gardner is going to get, uh, he'd be up starting over bro.
53:12Uh, after Brissette. So I don't know. I'll, I'll take the under.
53:15I also don't like Carson back. I did not think he's an NFL quarterback.
53:19Well, I mean, if you're trying to, if you're trying to evaluate there, if you're trying to lose games, Carson back's your best bet.
53:26That's fine. But the whole evaluating him for the, like, I don't think there's a world where the Cardinals go into next
53:32season with Carson Beck as their starter. Again, they're more alive to probably sign a Baker Mayfield or draft a guy.
53:38Carson Beck's not going to be the long-term answer for this franchise.
53:41You know, he's not, we didn't talk about Baker Mayfield in Arizona, but I don't know if they would be smart enough
53:47to do that and just say, instead of going for another young quarterback, let's just bring in the veteran and go win.
53:54Because if you look at the history of the Arizona Cardinals, right?
53:57The two times in their organization of relevance, Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner signing veteran quarterbacks with a team that's kind of
54:03got a lot of other talent around it. You got the, you know, you got Larry Fitzgerald and Juan Holden.
54:09You can run the system too. Let's just drop in a quarterback.
54:12Leave it to the Arizona Cardinals to pass on a really talented 2027 quarterback rookie class and draft a veteran or sign a veteran instead.
54:19So yeah. I think it's 31 in Baker Mayfield.
54:22I don't think that's a bad move. This team is not a bad move.
54:26I think it's, I think it's, they got a reset.
54:29They need a franchise quarterback. I'm going to fight you on this.
54:32That's not a bad move. I think it is.
54:34Why do you want to like, why do you want to drop in a veteran quarterback to this?
54:40Oh, this roster is built to win. Dude. Okay, fine.
54:42Let's list off the offense. Jeremiah Love Marvin Harrison, Jr.
54:45Michael Wilson, Trey McBride. The offensive line is league average.
54:48If not, could be decently good draft picks of 2025 on defense.
54:51Exactly. You have Josh. You have Walter Nolan who looked really good in a small sample.
54:56They also have will Johnson like and Buna Baker for you, Andrew.
54:59Let me paint a picture for you. I'm fine with that.
55:02Signed Baker. Draft defense. Let's say Matthew Stafford doesn't, things don't go well for him and McVay.
55:07And then it's off, you know, we, they're on borrowed time.
55:10They know that everybody knows that's why the miles Garrett trade happens.
55:14It's like, Hey, we're pushing all chips in. We just talked about all the Seattle, you know, change over and the running game.
55:20And, you know, Sam Darnold putting too much on his plate and all that stuff and make, make everybody sick.
55:26And then we talked about the 49ers being a team that has age and injury history not on their side.
55:31There is an avenue for a team like the Arizona Cardinals to in a year or two, all of a sudden flip
55:38that entire division and be at the top of it.
55:40It's not impossible. Or be a wild card team.
55:43If you're Baker Mayfield, are you going to the Rams?
55:46You go into the Cardinals. You go into the Rams.
55:49He's not going to the Rams. Exactly. They drafted Ty Simpson.
55:52But what I'm saying is like, if you've got that, if it's, if it's the Cardinals Rams in the bidding for Baker
55:58Mayfield in a scenario where Ty Simpson's not their guy, where are you going to go?
56:02He's going to go to the Rams. You just need to go to the Cardinals.
56:07He'll hit up Kyler Murray and say like, Hey, how was your time with Arizona?
56:11And he's like, no, I mean, it wasn't the best.
56:14Not every team, especially one that I think is one run.
56:17Well, like the Rams is dumb enough to pull a plug on a quarterback without like seeing a full at least a full season starting.
56:24Well, I'm just saying if they see, I mean, they're going to see my practice every single day and they might be
56:30like, dude, this guy doesn't have it. They may come to that conclusion.
56:34I don't know. I'm not there. Let's talk about their schedule for a second, shall we?
56:38I'd be surprised. Because the Arizona Cardinals, they open at Los Angeles as the opponent there.
56:43Then you have September 20th. They play the Seahawks and San Francisco.
56:46So they literally start off with three straight games in the division, which I think we all agree.
56:51That's that's a real fat looking. Oh, and three potentially after that giants on the road.
56:56So they got to travel. Then they've got the Detroit Lions at home.
56:59Then they get the Rams again. Then they get Denver in their own building.
57:03Then they get Dallas on the road, Seattle on the road, Los Angeles again.
57:07I don't see how can the open with the Chargers.
57:10Like, pardon me, not, not the Rams. They open with the Chargers.
57:13I'll get at the Chargers though that so. I'm trying to find the win here before the bi-week.
57:18You're, you're with me, Joey. I think like we're going to ride to the same.
57:23I think this team is live to go winless.
57:25I think this, this team is live to go.
57:28Oh, and eight, like 17. Which is a shame that that can happen.
57:31Talent on there. So I know, but this schedule is horrible, dude.
57:35We could learn at Kansas city. Not an easy place to play.
57:38Nope. I think I found your W maybe at home against the commanders week 12.
57:42Maybe. So one 11. Maybe. And they have a late.
57:45Andrew, they got a late by too. So they have the Eagles.
57:48They have the toughest schedule in the NFL. They, they play in the toughest division, the NFL.
57:53They have the toughest schedule. They're going to potentially have the number one overall pick and they're going to use it on the quarterback.
58:00So that's why I can't get behind this. They're going to send a veteran guy when they're going to have every single
58:06top quarterback staring them right in the face next year.
58:09And I just think that's the best investment at home against the jets on the road against new Orleans, then at home against Vegas.
58:16And then San Francisco, who might not be playing for anything.
58:19They could easily win their way out of that first pick and like when they're four games, that's what this team does.
58:25Here's what you do, everybody. You bet them to have the first overall pick.
58:29This is the best bet on the Cardinals. Bet them to have the number one overall pick and then sell off at the buy.
58:36Cause at the buy week, they could be a one or two win team.
58:40And then between the jets, New Orleans, Vegas, San Fran, there could be two wins in there.
58:44Especially if like San Fran is like not playing for anything, playing backups or just through this towel.
58:50Cause the season went so bad and they're like, no, screw it.
58:53We're done. Really. Wouldn't that be, wouldn't that be just the best to like the, the jets, you know, I mean, right on the precipice of another.
59:01So the point that D bro, you're talking about how this team could go.
59:04Oh, in 17, right. We're talking about this. Cause he's going to have the worst record.
59:09The number one overall pick. So how is Jeremiah love the favorite to win rookie of the year?
59:14If he's going to be playing for the worst team.
59:17I couldn't, I know we talked about it. I thought that Mendoza.
59:20So then why is he like, that's what I can't.
59:23Cause he's the sexiest name on the board. That's why he's the sexiest name on the board.
59:28He's the best talent. That's biggest name on the board.
59:31Mendoza was the number one overall pick and he's a quarterback.
59:34How is he not? I don't know how long or when he's going to start.
59:38That's the problem with that. And then he's going to be on a bad team as well.
59:43So you want to guess what the line is for the chargers Cardinals, by the way, nine and a half.
59:48Um, D bro. Would you like to get cracking?
59:51Is it more? I'll go low. I say no, I think they're probably going to be, I'll say six and a half or seven and a half.
59:59You're not even in the neighborhood. D bro. Andrew was closer without going over.
60:02It's 10 and a half right now. Jeez. Omerian Hampton is going to be smashing in fantasy for the first, I first two weeks of the season.
60:10Like, uh, no, that's a lot. It is a lot.
60:13I could see. I think at garbage time, they can get the cover now.
60:17I'm sure. Yeah. I, I, yeah. That's too much for 30 right now.
60:20It's the, it's, it's so easy. My favorite. He's tied at the number one with love, by the way, they're tied.
60:26Is that in love for offensive rookie of the year though?
60:29I thought earlier when we talked about it, love was the favorite.
60:33Well, he ain't anymore. Cause I think people have come to Jesus on that and realize that Cardinals are going to be really bad.
60:40So, um, so the wind total for the Cardinals, we could just jump down to that.
60:44What do you think that number is boys? Four and a half.
60:48That is correct. I feel like we need to go back and review these guesses and see what our hit rate is.
60:54I feel like we were pretty good. I missed one.
60:57I think maybe I missed one along the way has been very good.
61:00Yeah. We haven't, that's the thing. We haven't looked at any of these just for everybody at home.
61:05We haven't looked at any of these prior. So, uh, the over is plus one 25.
61:10The under is minus one 35. So yeah, might want to tease this maybe down to three and a half.
61:15I was like, this feels like earlier. If you could bet this in season and play for that, that, that, you know,
61:22it goes down to say three and a half.
61:24I say you play terrible. I say you go crush, crush the Cardinals on the way into the season.
61:29And on the way out, the over later week 14 by when nobody's looking, shh, go the other way.
61:35I just like cash out of it and then take what you can get and put it on, put it on the,
61:41you know, the Miami dolphins to be the worst team in the league.
61:45Oh, miles Garrett to be defensive player of the year.
61:47Put it on that. Last question. We talk about what that is, what that number is.
61:52I don't think we did. If it's a player of the year.
61:55No, I did not. I think it was like close to one space.
61:59He is the top of the board. Plus yes.
62:0230. Yeah. Rookie of the year. I love great.
62:04Yeah. I think that both of those are, those are like my two, my favorites.
62:08My, and usually it's those are the, I usually like betting in the other bigger markets, like MVP offensive rookie of the year, like those types of markets.
62:16But I love defensive player for me. It's like, yeah, these ones like point out to me, the last question on the Cardinals really crowded backfield with love.
62:24Algier, James Connor, Trey Benson. One of these guys has got to get traded.
62:28Well, Benson's already hurt. So he's already hurt again.
62:31Yeah. Mm-hmm. James Connor will be traded. I'll give you the two spots, right?
62:34Not a, but not a, but not a, but not a, but not a, but not a Fence is hurt.
62:40They still have Algier in love, bro. That's that's two running back.
62:43I mean, you got what you want. I mean, they lost every single running back last year on their team.
62:49Like Bam Knight. And they could re-sign somebody like a Michael Carter or D Mercado if he gets cut or something like that.
62:56No, I think James Connor is going to get traded.
62:58Full stop. Not if Trey Benson's injured. I feel like they would want a third running back.
63:03Trey Benson's not factoring into this freaking backfield. Even if he's healthy, it doesn't matter.
63:07I think from a existential standpoint, James Connor's age is, is an automatic move on and you could just find somebody off the scrap heap who's cheaper.
63:15This is, this is one of those things where you do right by the veteran and you, you, you give them.
63:21Yeah. So why did they re-sign him in the first place?
63:24If they're trying to do right by everybody in Arizona was.
63:27Where does he go then? Is he a Detroit lion?
63:30I think that's so good. Packers or lions. That's my two destinations.
63:33Commanders actually could be kind of nice too. He either reunites with Jonathan Gannon or drew Petsing.
63:38And both of those could use a strong RV too, with the Josh Jacobs stuff.
63:42And if Isaiah Pacheco, the lions get into camp and they're like, Oh man, this dude's cooked.
63:47All right. We got it. They're kicking us out.
63:50This conversation is never going to end. So the parking lot's closing.
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