Week 7 Fantasy Football Key Questions: MUST-STARTS, Risky Sits & Biggest Rankings Debates! (Ep. 2288)

A.J. Brown had another down game on Thursday night. Derek Brown observed that any time Brown was asked to run a comeback or curl route, his deacceleration at the top of his routes showed choppy footwork and he's not sharp. Brown is not fully healthy coming off the ankle injury. Derek Brown expects to see a few more down games for A.J. Brown until he is fully healthy. Additionally, New England's usage was questionable—running him on comebacks and curls when they should know the ankle is an issue and use him on end breakers, slants, and other routes that don't require sharp deceleration.

Jones is ranked RB17 by one source and RB20 by another, close to consensus (RB20 in ECR). The source expects Jones to lead the backfield and have a good game against the Colts' weak run defense. Despite his bell cow usage on one good leg being concerning for durability, he's favored over Jordan Mason this week.

Purdy is QB1 in ECR this week, but the source questions this ranking as too high given his limited weapons; he only has Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to throw to, which doesn't justify QB1 status.

Young is ranked QB10 in ECR but the source argues this is too low; he should be in the mid-QB1 range, living in the same area code as Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow this week. The source would rank him ahead of Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, CJ Stroud, and Joe Burrow.

Bryce Young is ranked QB10 in ECR for Week 7, but the source believes this is too low. Young is facing the Buccaneers, who are a pass funnel defense (opponents have thrown on the box 63% of the time, the third highest rate). The source suggests Young should be ranked higher than Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, CJ Stroud, and Joe Burrow, who are the next four quarterbacks ahead of him in consensus.

Chase Brown has yet to live up to his ADP this season, with only one weekly finish better than RB22 and no finishes inside the top 12 in half PPR. Pat Fitzmaurice notes Brown has faced a really tough schedule so far; four of his first five opponents (Buccaneers, Texans, Steelers, Jaguars) ranked inside the top eight in DVOA against the run. The Ravens are 12th in DVOA against the run, not an easy matchup. A concerning factor is that the Bengals planned to have Joe Burrow under center more often to create explosive runs for Brown, but Burrow is more comfortable in shotgun. Samajay Pirine is more of a downhill runner and may be better at gap runs from shotgun. Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher said they will "continually assess how that touch share between him [Pirine] and Chase Brown should play out." Derek Brown says no matter how you slice the Ravens matchup—on the ground or through the air—it's horrible for Chase Brown. Ravens have the 9th lowest explosive run rate, 5th lowest rushing success rate, 8th highest stuff rate, and versus running backs in the passing game, they allow the 2nd lowest yards per target and 3rd lowest receiving fantasy points per game. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL without a run of 14+ yards this season. Derek Brown ranks him RB17, Pat Fitzmaurice at RB15, both below consensus RB14.

Christian Watson is noted as 'a little bit banged up' heading into Week 7 against Detroit. This injury context is mentioned alongside Matthew Golden also being banged up, in the context of discussing tight end opportunities in the game.

The source ranks Colby Parkinson as tight end 17 this week. With uncertainty around Puka Nakua's calf injury and Colby Parkinson's own status, there is some possibility he could score a touchdown, but he is ranked well below Tyler Higbee in the tight end hierarchy.

Loveland had 69 yards and a touchdown on Thursday night. Derek Brown notes that for the last three weeks, Loveland looks like the player the source expected to draft in preseason. He had 12 targets in this game and could have had a much bigger day without drops. With Cole Kmet's season-ending knee injury, Loveland could see his route share increase from the 70% range to potentially 90-95%, making him a more consistent target. Brown emphasizes Loveland is the guy the source thought they were drafting in preseason.

Swift had 78 yards and a touchdown on Thursday night. Derek Brown notes that Swift looks nothing like the player he was with the Lions and Eagles; the evolution in his game has been awesome to see. Brown calls him an absolute stud, praising the way he's running and his overall development.

Goddert is not a favorite streaming option this week despite potential passing volume in the Eagles offense. The source is fading him relative to ECR, suggesting he is overvalued in consensus rankings.

Devante Adams is not available for the Raiders this week, which impacts the passing game distribution and creates opportunity for other Rams receivers and pass catchers.

The source is six spots ahead of consensus on Boston, ranking him as a budding star. Boston is ranked WR28 in consensus and WR25-27 in the source's rankings, placing him above Jalen Waddle, Jameson Williams, Carnell Tate, and Michael Wilson. The source explicitly states he has Boston above all those guys and wants to be ahead of consensus on him as a developing talent.

Smith benefits from potential passing volume in the Eagles offense, particularly if the Cowboys force Philadelphia into catch-up mode. The source identifies Smith as the only Eagle he wants to start this week, suggesting strong confidence in his volume and production.

Derek Brown has DK Metcalf at WR17 and likes the matchup against the Saints. Metcalf is tied for the third most deep targets amongst wide receivers. His historic splits against single high coverage should show up here, as the Saints have given up the 8th most deep receiving yards and the highest passing success rate to deep passing. While Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent with his ADOT, Brown expects a mix of both low and high ADOT plays this week, with Metcalf positioned to benefit from the deep shots. Pat Fitzmaurice has him at WR21, still roughly in range with consensus.

Fannin is ranked three spots above consensus in the source's rankings for Week 7. The source notes he's been quiet the last two weeks with just one catch in each game, but emphasizes he's a terrific player who is too good to be quiet for very long. Despite the Titans being pretty tough on tight ends, the source is still starting Fannin in leagues where he has him, suggesting confidence in a bounce-back.

Likely is ranked TE6 by the source, two spots lower than consensus. The source notes targets are polarized to Likely and Malik Neighbors, making it hard to drop him too far despite concerns about the Texans matchup.

McCarthy is ranked QB24 by one source and QB17 by another, both ahead of consensus (QB26 in ECR). He looked great against the Saints with 243 yards and a TD in less than 12 minutes of clock time, but faces a dangerous Texans defense. The source views him as a strong QB2 this week, with QB1 upside depending on which version of the Texans defense shows up and how much he runs. His ceiling and floor are raised by design runs.

Averaging negative 0.9 rushing yards over expected per carry this season. Dobbins has gotten double-digit carries in five straight games, with 18 carries and 17 carries in the last two weeks, securing him RB 22 in ECR consensus rankings (tied with RJ Harvey at RB 23). The source says if Jonah Coleman doesn't play, Dobbins gets the nod due to rushing volume. However, in half-point PPR scoring, the source is more on Dobbins for touchdown chasing, but acknowledges that if Coleman enters the game and gets hot early, Sean Payton could move away from Dobbins entirely and phase him out in favor of Coleman on early downs.

Derek Brown identifies Jalen Coker as the clear answer for single high coverage in the Panthers passing game. Going back to last year, Teddero McMillan was Carolina's do-everything receiver, but this year in games where Coker has been a full-time player, Coker is clearly their answer for single high. This matters because Tampa runs single high at the second highest rate in the NFL (65% of snaps). Against single high, Coker leads the team with a 29% target per route run rate and 3.21 yards per route run. Derek Brown ranks him WR16, while Pat Fitzmaurice has him at WR17. Both analysts like Coker in this matchup.

Williams is ranked ahead of Denzel Boston in consensus (WR28 vs. Boston's WR25-27), but the source does not like him this week. The source specifically dislikes Williams in the Lions-Colts game with a 53.5 total, noting that Jameer Gibbs will score touchdowns and the coverage structure does not favor Williams.

Goff ranks QB 5 but the source emphasizes the gap to Love (QB 2) is smaller than rankings suggest. The source states 'I have Goff in like half of my redraft leagues this year' and 'I love Goff as a guy you could just get the middle rounds pretty easily without reaching for him.' Both quarterbacks should have strong games in a 53.5-point total, though Love has the easier matchup.

Wright was ambiguous as the backup behind Devon Henry, but Ollie Gordon has clearly surpassed him. Gordon is the better player and has proven himself as the lead back for the Dolphins.

Designated to return from injured reserve and has practiced with the Broncos the last two days; there is a chance he could be activated ahead of the Cardinals game. The source believes Jonah Coleman is very possibly the best running back on the team, citing his plus 0.1 rushing yards over expected per carry (all 10 attempts against Jacksonville's top-ranked run defense) versus JK Dobbins' negative 0.9 and RJ Harvey's negative 0.6. The source projects that a month from now, Coleman will be the most valuable fantasy asset in this backfield. If Coleman doesn't play this week, Dobbins gets the nod due to rushing volume, but the source loves Coleman and expects Sean Payton to deploy him on early downs if he gets hot early; if Coleman rips off a few runs, Dobbins could be phased out entirely with Coleman taking over early-down work while Harvey remains the passing-down back.

Addison is the only Vikings offensive player the source is really down on this week. The Colts have been pretty good against perimeter wide receivers, which is Addison's role. He's expected to be left out in the cold while other Vikings receivers and pass catchers have good games.

Love ranks QB 2 versus Jared Goff at QB 5, but the source notes the gap is smaller than rankings suggest. Love has the easier matchup: Green Bay's pass defense ranks 3rd in EPA per pass (behind only Vikings and Seahawks), 2nd in DVOA against the pass, and is one of only 7 teams to hold opponents under 60% completion rate. The Lions pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA, 29th in EPA per pass, 29th in opponent passer rating, and 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt. The source predicts 'love is going to have the better game' in a high-total shootout.

Mason is ranked RB25 by one source and RB30 by another, close to consensus (RB26 in ECR). He's returning from a broken thumb this week against the Colts. The source expects Mason to get a ramp-up game with limited touches, with Aaron Jones leading the backfield. The Vikings have a great matchup against the Colts' weak run defense.

Jefferson is ranked near or above consensus by the source. Despite the Colts being good against perimeter receivers, Jefferson is expected to have a good game, especially with Sauce Gardner likely out with a calf injury. The source predicts Jefferson gets a touchdown this week.

Derek Brown has Kyle Pitts ranked as TE20, far below consensus (TE11). The coverage matchup for Pitts against the 49ers looks horrible. The 49ers run single high at the 10th highest rate (55% of snaps), and the Falcons' passing attack is heavily focused on Drake London versus single high. Pitts' target per route run rate versus single high is only 15% compared to 24% versus two high; yards per route run drops from 1.9 versus two high to 1.04 versus single high. Outside of the coverage splits, the 49ers are excellent versus tight ends, giving up the 7th fewest yards per target and 2nd fewest fantasy points per opportunity. Derek Brown states he wants nothing to do with Pitts and would stream tight ends like Pat Freiermuth, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, Dalton Schultz, Michael Mayer, AJ Barner, or even Darnell Washington over him. Pat Fitzmaurice is at TE18, also significantly lower than consensus. The 49ers have not given up a touchdown to a tight end this season.

Murray could be a low-end QB1 this week against the Colts, who allow the 8th most passing yards and have the 10th highest passing TD rate. He was QB10 versus the Saints. The source ranks him ahead of consensus and expects the Vikings offense to have a very good game against a weak Colts defense.

Kyron Williams is positioned to get more utilization in the passing game this week against Las Vegas. The Raiders give up the second most yards per target and fifth most receiving yards to running backs. The source notes that depending on game script, Kyron could go CMC-esque with seven targets while Blake Corham gets three or four, or the Rams could lean into the run game.

Burden had four targets and four catches for 130 yards and a touchdown on Thursday night. Despite fair complaints about his snap share and target share earlier in the season, the source attributes this to Ben Johnson's heavy use of multi-tight end personnel (12 and 13 personnel). With Cole Kmet sustaining a season-ending knee injury, the Bears may be forced to use less multi-tight end personnel and more 11 personnel, which could get Burden on the field more often. Derek Brown notes Burden looks fantastic and questions why he's not getting 10 targets per game given his explosiveness and wiggle after the catch.

Harrison Jr. is ranked ahead of Mekhai Lemon in ECR, but the source prefers to start Lemon this week, suggesting Harrison Jr. is overvalued relative to the matchup dynamics and the Eagles' offensive struggles with their deteriorated offensive line.

Matthew Golden is noted as 'a little bit banged up' heading into Week 7 against Detroit, mentioned alongside Christian Watson in the context of tight end opportunity discussion.

Stafford is ranked in the top 10 QBs this week, but the source views him as an easy one to drop from consideration. He has limited receiving weapons with Kanata Munfield and tight ends to throw to, and he's not playing especially well either.

Wilson is ranked ahead of Denzel Boston in consensus and is one of the four names directly ahead of Boston in ECR (along with Jalen Waddle, Jameson Williams, and Carnell Tate). The source explicitly states he is not exactly feeling Wilson, placing Boston above him in his rankings.

Gordon is ranked RB19 in consensus and RB15 by one source, up from RB21 just days earlier. He's averaged 16.3 touches, 5.2 yards per carry, and has a rushing TD in all three games since Devon Henry was injured. The Jets allow the 6th most rushing yards to RBs and run the ball at the 7th highest rate. Gordon has evolved into a more physical runner, ranking 4th in explosive run rate and yards up to contact among 39 qualifying rushers. He's expected to have another good game with a good chance at a TD. Rest-of-season, he's ranked RB24 in consensus, which feels too low given his production and favorable schedule.

Puka Nakua is dealing with a calf injury heading into the Rams-Raiders matchup, creating uncertainty around his availability and role in the passing game this week.

Averaging negative 0.6 rushing yards over expected per carry but excels in the passing game. Arizona runs too high at the highest rate in the entire NFL at almost 70% of defensive snaps. Against Arizona's coverage structure, RJ Harvey has a 41% target per route run rate, which the source calls astronomical. Arizona has given up the 11th most yards per target to opposing running backs. The source loves Harvey in this game and projects he could get seven or eight targets in the passing game. In PPR formats, the source is all in on RJ Harvey. Harvey is ranked RB 23 in ECR consensus (tied with Dobbins at RB 22), and the source expects him to remain the passing-down back even if Coleman takes over early-down work.

LaPorta ranks tight end 4 with 7.4 targets per game versus Tucker Craft's 6.2; he has 9 red zone targets and 7 targets from the 10-yard line or closer, compared to Craft's 6 red zone targets and 3 from the 10-yard line. The source states 'LaPorta just has the more valuable role right now' in a high-total Packers-Lions game.

If Barkley returns, he provides a massive upgrade to the Eagles offense over Damian Pierce, giving an element to the offense that was previously missing and potentially supporting passing volume for receivers like Devonta Smith and Dallas Goddert.

Hockenson is ranked TE1 by the source this week against the Colts, who have a weak pass defense. He's expected to have a good game as part of the Vikings' strong offensive matchup.

McKee is in a tough spot despite facing a poor Cowboys defense; the Eagles offensive line has deteriorated from best in the league to flat out bad, and he averaged only 4.8 yards per pass attempt last week with the Eagles scoring just 14 points. The source cannot get excited about McKee even against Dallas and rates him as a low-end QB2 for the week.

Pollard is ranked RB20 in half-PPR for Week 7, one spot above consensus (RB21). The source likes him this week specifically because of the gross game environment (low 37.5 total, close spread) and his consistent early-down work: averaging 17.4 touches per game since Week 2. Among 39 qualifying backs, he ranks 15th in yards after contact per attempt. The Browns' run defense is bottom-12 in rushing success rate, bottom-5 in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. If Pollard gets 15-17 carries for 80 yards, a catch or two, and a touchdown, he projects as a strong RB2.

The source loves Tucker Craft this week; he's preferred over JMO despite both being banged up. Craft is positioned to have a fantastic day against a Lions defense that has been really bad against tight ends, though the return of Brian Branch at strong safety may provide some help to Detroit's pass defense.

Craft ranks tight end 5 but the source prefers him over LaPorta because Detroit's pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA and 29th in EPA per pass, hemorrhaging yards per target to tight ends (6th most) and fantasy points per opportunity (2nd most). Craft's role has grown since week 4, with 5 red zone targets in the last 3 games and a 23.7% red zone target share. The source states 'I really like Tucker Craft' in this high-total matchup.

The source ranks Tyler Higbee as tight end 8 this week. Regardless of Puka Nakua's status (whether he plays, doesn't play, or is limited), Higbee is positioned to benefit from increased utilization in the passing game against a Raiders defense that is not great versus tight ends (third most receiving touchdowns, fifth most fantasy points per opportunity). Higbee has posted 22 catches for 234 yards and a touchdown over his last four games.