0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click Grainger.com, or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. Hello everybody, welcome into Fantasy Pros.
0:09I'm Ryan, warmly joined by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmaurice.
0:12We are looking ahead to Week 1. Guys, it is upon us.
0:16We are no longer doing just a whole bunch of draft content.
0:20We are now doing weekly content. We've got a short episode here for you today talking some sleeper starts in Week 1.
0:27It's kind of interesting, Fitz, thinking about the notion of a sleeper start in Week 1 because typically it's just the guys
0:34you drafted to fill your starting lineup. But there are certainly circumstances where sometimes you would say, hey, I know this player
0:41was going later, but for Week 1, great matchup.
0:44I really like him. Maybe I am going to put him in over the guy who was in my starting flex because I drafted him around earlier.
0:53I'm curious who you guys pick here. Reminder for everybody that our consensus rankings and tiers can be found at FantasyPros.com slash rankings.
1:00That's both for drafts, if you still have any going on, but also for weekly starting decisions.
1:05Fitz, let's start with you. Who's your first sleeper start here?
1:09It's Jordan Mason at home against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.
1:13We just talked about him on a key question show we did, a guy who became kind of a draft value, I think, late.
1:21I slept on him for a lot of draft season thinking it was going to be more of a running back by
1:28committee in Minnesota, but I now think that Jordan Mason is the lead guy.
1:32I think he's going to fit a run scheme that apparently is leaning more on outside zone stuff this year, which seems to be up Mason's alley.
1:41Vikings offensive line, a lot of injury problems last year.
1:44They missed Christian Darrisaw for some of the season.
1:47Healthy now. And I don't think the Green Bay run defense is a pushover.
1:52It was kind of a middling run D last year.
1:55We'll see this year, but it's certainly not a daunting matchup at home for the Vikings.
2:00So I think Mason could be effective, maybe a little less effective in PPR leagues because we know he is not much of a pass catcher.
2:08But in standard half point PPR, I think Mason is a guy you might want to consider for a flex spot in week one.
2:16This is somebody, Debra, that you have grown to really like for draft purposes as a value.
2:21Do you like him here right off the bat in week one as well?
2:26Absolutely. If we see the Minnesota Vikings come out with a run heavy offense and attack, like Mason could get 15, 17
2:33carries in week one if he gets in the end zone.
2:37Like we're talking about, like he's possibly a top 15 back week one.
2:41Love it. Will you be ranking him pretty aggressively?
2:44I'm not sure where he is in consensus right now.
2:47I don't have that. I will be ranking him aggressive versus consensus.
2:51And I'm looking at right now. He is RB 38 right now in the ECR for week one.
2:56Yeah, I will. I will definitively be above that.
2:59He's one spot behind Aaron Jones actually in ECR.
3:02Wow. Running back rankings right now. Like 37. Like 37.
3:05Above him. Like Chuba Hubbard. Like what are we doing here?
3:09Yeah. No, I think this is this is a good one.
3:12This is somebody you don't have to draft as a starter, but you should be interested in starting in week one.
3:19All right. Let's get to your first one here.
3:22Debra. If you got a quarterback with a tough match, tough matchup, you need to look at possibly starting Malik Willis in week one.
3:30He gets the Raiders. I think that Malik Willis is going to put up a crap ton of points in week one.
3:37He's going to run a ton. Last year, the Las Vegas Raiders gave up the fourth most rushing yards to design quarterback runs.
3:44Their defense. Yes, they added a lot of players in the offseason and stuff, but it takes time to gel.
3:51How much is that really going to raise the ceiling on the floor for this past defense that last year they gave
3:58it the 10th highest passer rating and the ninth highest passing success rate.
4:02Right. So Malik Willis, whether he's good or not, he's going to freaking run.
4:06If he runs as much as we all think he's going to do, he's going to be a top 12 quarterback in week one.
4:14And yet right now in week one rankings, he's QB 19.
4:18OK. Yeah. Fitz, are you ahead of or below consensus in terms of week one?
4:22I am above consensus on Malik Willis. I have got him.
4:26Sorry. Let me just switch over. I was on the running backs.
4:30I've got Malik Willis QB 13. Let's go. 13.
4:33Awesome. Let's go. Ahead of Jackson Dart, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Jordan Love.
4:38Yeah, I'm all in. I feel like Willis, like the reason he's not higher in season long draft rankings is because of,
4:45oh, like, is he going to get the opportunity all year?
4:49Week to week with the rushing equity we're expecting, like, I don't see why he should be outside the top 15.
4:55Like pretty much any week he is starting in season long.
4:59I understand if you want to be hesitant or whatever, it's an upside swing.
5:03But week to week, like that rushing is there any game he's starting.
5:08So I. To your point, too, with the short leash, does everybody not realize that the Dolphins cut or traded away every
5:15other quarterback on that roster outside of Malik Willis?
5:18Quinn years gone. Gone. Cam Miller, gone. Mark Gronowski, gone.
5:21And I'm not saying that he should have a short leash, to be clear.
5:25No, no, but that's been the narrative all offseason.
5:28That has been the narrative. Yeah, yeah. All right, Fitz, let's go to your next sleeper start.
5:34Quinton Johnston of the Chargers. And I've got him wide receiver 35.
5:37So I think he's a viable start in leagues where you're required to start three receivers every week.
5:43Maybe he's a flex guy. I just, I think QJ is going to shine in the Mike McDaniel system, which has plenty
5:50of crossing routes and, you know, plays that are going to get Quinton Johnston, the ball in his hands on the run.
5:57And that's where he shines in the catch and run stuff, ball in hand stuff.
6:02Juicy home matchup for the Chargers against the Arizona Cardinals, who I think are probably going to have one of the worst defenses in the league this season.
6:11And it's possible that we might not see that big a gap in value between Ladd McConkie and Quinton Johnston this year,
6:18because I think the McDaniel system is so well tailored to Quinton Johnston.
6:22Oh, and another thing, like if the Chargers use as much 12 personnel as we think, or even some 13 personnel where
6:29they play Charlie Kohler, David Njoku, or Rondé Gadsden on the field at the same time.
6:35Like that's good for the receivers. It sort of concentrates whichever receivers are on the field when it's multiple tight ends, rather
6:42than 13 personnel where you're chopping up those targets between three receivers.
6:45I like it with just two. And I think QJ is going to have, if he can stay healthy, I think he's
6:53poised for a really good season this year. Fitz, do you think there's a degree of inconsistency with any wide receiver outside of the elite of the elite?
7:02Do you think that this is largely going to be an up and down?
7:06Like you want to try and get the, you're trying to get lucky to pick the right weeks to start Quinton Johnson?
7:13Or do you think there will be a level of consistency week to week with him in this offense?
7:19Man, I'm hoping more consistency than we have become accustomed to in the past, because yes, he's been the classic better in best ball guy in recent years.
7:28Yeah. Debra, you have liked Quinton Johnson a lot in drafts.
7:32What do you think about him for week one?
7:35All in. I've been all in. I remain all in.
7:38I think he's going to be the wide receiver one for the Chargers.
7:42Nobody's wanting to hear it. I'm with it. Like, I think that because he operated in this role last year, like, again,
7:49speaking to the consistency, I do not believe in everybody thinks that I have a tinfoil hat on for all the entirety of the year.
7:57But like injury reporting in the NFL is a problem.
8:00Anytime that you've watched any Netflix documentary, so many different things come out in those that we never hear about that are never on the injury report.
8:09And I saw Greg Rosenthal out there talking about Ladd McConkie had a knee injury and stuff, and it wasn't reported on.
8:16Bro, you want to give the same insight about Quinton Johnson and his hamstring injury?
8:21Are we not going to talk about that? So I think QJ is going to be the wide receiver one for the Chargers this year.
8:29If you're not sure who to start, get fast, free starter set advice with the Fantasy Pros Who Should I Start tool.
8:36Compare your players and get instant recommendations powered by more than 150 fantasy experts.
8:40Set your best lineup today at fantasypros.com slash start.
8:43All right, guys. D-Rowe, your next one is up here.
8:46Going with Jadarian Price, man. I think he's going to have a surprising week one.
8:51I would be willing to roll him out there as an RB2 in a lot of lineups because a lot of spots,
8:58you're probably drafting him as your RB3 considering roster constructions.
9:02But no Zach Charbonnet to start the year. Jadarian Price, like I know everybody's like so worried about what can his usage be?
9:09Okay, I think he's going to get rushing volume.
9:12And this New England Patriots rushing defense. Yeah, sure, they held backs to the fifth lowest explosive run rate last year, but outside of that, they weren't good.
9:21Ninth highest rushing success rate. 11th lowest stuff rate.
9:24Again, Seattle rushing attack that is dependent upon zone runs.
9:27They gave the fourth highest rushing success rate to zone runs last year.
9:31So Jadarian Price, I think, can walk away with a much better stat line in week one than a lot of people
9:38give him credit because they're worried about George Helani.
9:41They're worried about Emmanuel Wilson. They're worried about, oh, well, you don't have to worry about Zach Charbonnet.
9:47So I think Jadarian Price is going to be the clear leader of that backfield in week one.
9:53Is there any part of you, Fitz, that wants to see it first with Price?
9:57Or are you kind of, I don't want to say all in, but are you also on board with putting him in
10:04as an exciting start here in week one? I've got him higher in my week one rankings than I had him in my draft rankings.
10:12I do think things are lined up. I mean, my biggest concern with Jadarian Price is that eventually Zach Charbonnet comes back
10:19and turns this into a backfield by committee, just as you're starting to play more important games in your fantasy season.
10:26I think Fitz is ready for the weekend because I believe he just called him Zach Charbonnet instead of Charbonnet.
10:33I thought I said Charbonnet, didn't I? Maybe I misheard.
10:36I thought I heard Charbonnet. Obviously, I know you know his name.
10:40I do like my running backs dry and oaky.
10:43I will plead the fifth. I will plead the fifth in this, but I will point out right now in week one
10:50ECR, I don't understand why Quinshawn Judkins, Jalen Warren, Basial Tootin are all ranked ahead of Jadarian Price.
10:55There's the three names ahead of Price, yeah. Or even Cam Scadaboo.
10:59Why? No. I'm putting Jadarian Price above all those guys.
11:02There's a reason why Fitz's fantasy baseball team name is Wines Above Replacement.
11:07I'll just say that. So good. So good. Who's your next sleeper start?
11:11Wandale Robinson versus the New York Jets. Yeah, we saw the Titans offense struggle in the preseason.
11:16And Cam Ward seemed kind of out of sync.
11:19The downfield passing game wasn't really working. I just wonder if Wandale Robinson rides to the rescue with these easy completions.
11:26Make things like take a little off Cam Ward's plate by just getting Wandale open in space.
11:31Short areas of the field. Quick completions. Catch and run.
11:35And we know that Titans offensive coordinator Brian Dable is very familiar with Wandale Robinson from their time together with the New York Giants.
11:42You know, like all along my worry in drafting Carnell Tate, where he's been going as sort of a mid-range to lower
11:49end wide receiver three is like, I can absolutely see a scenario where Wandale Robinson out targets him this year.
11:56Now, the targets for Tate are more valuable because they're downfield targets.
12:00They're going to be some splash plays. But I just feel like Wandale could be set up for yet another high volume
12:07season where he flirts with 100 catches. Now, Fitz, you called him Wandale Robinson.
12:11No, I'm just kidding. This isn't a good pick.
12:14This is a great pick. Wandale has no business being outside the top 40 in week one, in my opinion, especially in any kind of PPR format.
12:23Because I think he's going to get a lot of targets.
12:26Even if you are still excited about somebody like Carnell Tate in terms of drafting him year long, even the best rookie
12:33receivers sometimes do take a couple of weeks, right?
12:36Justin Jefferson, the prime example of like, hey, it took him like a month and then he was elite right away.
12:43So even if you have the highest possible expectations for Carnell Tate, it's reasonable to say, hey, maybe it takes a week
12:50or two, especially since he didn't have a catch in the preseason.
12:54And Wandale has familiarity with Brian Dayball. Like you said, he I think is going to be used in a way that
13:01is really beneficial in a league that rewards, you know, catches with scoring.
13:05And like I said, any kind of PPR and to be outside the top 40, I think it's too low in week one.
13:12So I think this is a spot on call.
13:15Debra, where are you at on Wandale? I just want everybody to know at home, this is a massive move by Fitzy.
13:22Fitzy, who has not been a Wandale Robinson through over the last few years.
13:27Definitely not. A lot of shade at Wandale Robinson.
13:30This definitely is a big vote of confidence from Fitzy.
13:33And I'm with it, man. Like I already got through that game at the primer.
13:38Like I'm not worried about Jarvis Brownlee, the Jets slot corner in week one.
13:42Now he's been god awful during his tenure as an NFL player.
13:46So, yeah, I can definitely get behind Wandale. All right.
13:49We've got one more player here. Debra, a tight end from you.
13:53Yeah, I figured I'd play to the homer crowd here.
13:56I'm going Mark Andrews. I just look at it like Mark Andrews will not be ranked as a tight end one.
14:03If you waited on tight end, this is a good spot to start him this week.
14:08Looking at Colts defense at last year against the tight end.
14:12And the big thing that I want to highlight here, too, is that the volatility of defensive metrics is huge year to year.
14:19But a team like the Colts that is returning a ton of their personnel from last year, a little bit more sticky than like maybe some other teams.
14:28And honestly, we have seen over how many years, guys, Lou Anarumo defenses just struggle to always stop tight ends.
14:34So this isn't something new. So Mark Andrews can definitely feast in week one against the Colts.
14:40They gave it the fourth most yards per target, the 12th most fantasy points to receiving yards for tight ends and the 12th most fantasy points per opportunity.
14:49Maybe Andrews could come out and have a really strong week one and everybody's like, oh, Andrews is back, baby.
14:55Let's go. And maybe that doesn't continue for the entirety of the season.
15:00Week one. I think he's a really good start.
15:02Yeah, I mean, healthy Lamar, right, to start the year, unlike what we saw from most of last year.
15:08Lamar went healthy for those first few games last year was awesome.
15:12We've seen him come out with have a big game in week one with a new coordinator before.
15:18And he's in a dome. Like this is like just feels like it is built for a strong first impression from the Ravens offense.
15:26And I still, despite what Erickson and I keep betting against each other with Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, I still think
15:33the most likely person in any particular, you know, drive that is ending in the red zone, the most likely person to
15:40catch a touchdown for the Ravens is still Mark Andrews, in my opinion.
15:44And if you think that the Ravens offense has a good day here, unless it's all going to Derrick Henry, I think
15:51Andrews has a good chance to catch a touchdown in this one.
15:55So I do like that call. Debra, I'm not convinced he's going to have any big yardage games this season, although this
16:02would be as you laid out a match where that could happen.
16:06But touchdown wise, I think it's spot on. Vince, what do you think about the matchup?
16:11We don't know what the, I like the matchup.
16:14And while we don't know what sort of role Andrews is going to have in Declan Doyle's offense, we know Isaiah likely isn't there anymore.
16:22And we know that in Lamar Jackson's seven full seasons as a starter, Ravens tight ends have ranked in percentage of team targets.
16:29First, fifth, first, first, tenth, fourth, and fourth. Lamar likes throwing to his tight ends.
16:34He likes throwing to his tight ends. And he's like best friends with Mark Andrews specifically, right?
16:40Like when plays break down, that's where he looks.
16:42So yeah, I think that's a good call. Those were our sleeper starts for week one.
16:48For Fitz and Debra, I'm Ryan Warmly. Thanks for tuning in.
16:51We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
16:56If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
17:05Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
17:12Welcome to On the Field, today's hottest sports stories presented by On Nicotine Pouches.
17:16Breaking news here, the Onvitational is officially launching this October.
17:19Big names, big swings, even bigger energy. The top golf partners all under one roof.
17:24At the SoFi Center? Sounds f***ing awesome. Get all the details at onnicotine.com.
17:28Products for tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older.
17:32Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.
17:35What up? This is Jay Valentine, co-host of the R&B Money Podcast alongside my brother, R&B legend Tank.
17:41Together we've built a space for artists, executives, and fans of R&B music.
17:45To reminisce and tell the real stories behind the music.
17:48I have no money. I was hood famous. They think you're gonna get everybody out.
17:53We lived in a project. Real love came out.
17:56They're hearing the music and we had nothing. From Smokey Robinson to Mary J.
18:00Blige, B2K to Jill Scott, if you're a super dedicated R&B fan, this is where you belong.
18:06Listen to R&B Money from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
18:13Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.
18:19The league's newest podcast, The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.
18:23It is your home for everything football. Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players too.
18:30Join me and an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league.
18:35Get new episodes of The NFL Report Monday through Friday, all season long.
18:40Listen to the NFL Report Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
18:45Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday on our podcast, Lots to Say, with me, Bobby Bones, and Matt Castle.
18:54You're in training camp, and the rookie quarterback has one good throwing session in front of the media.
19:00Suddenly, everybody online says he should start over you week one.
19:03How do you handle this? You just go back out to practice the next day and wait for him to mess up.
19:10Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
19:18This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.