Mike McDaniel to Unlock Ladd McConkey? | 10 Fantasy Football Breakouts Backed by Vegas (Ep. 2133)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 15, 2026
Published
Sat, August 15, 2026
19
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Ladd McConkeyRashid ShaheedRhamondre StevensonBlake CorumColston LovelandDalton KincaidJalen CokerJeremiyah LoveJonathon BrooksJosh JacobsMarShawn LloydMike EvansQuentin JohnstonRome Odunze
Player analysis
Player insights
Blake Corum
PositiveBreakout53:34
Andrew Erickson and John Daigle highlight Blake Corum as a breakout candidate in the Rams' high-powered offense. Corum showed high efficiency and explosive run rates last year, and the team is actively looking to feature him more, particularly in the red zone. Daigle notes that Corum is an arbitrage play against Kyron Williams, who saw his backfield touch share drop to 60% after the bye week.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout20:43
Andrew Erickson identifies Loveland as a primary breakout candidate, noting his elite rookie finish (top five in PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, and points per game from week seven onward). Erickson expects the Bears' poor defense to force high-volume passing, potentially allowing Loveland to command a massive target share similar to Trey McBride's usage.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveValue41:06
Dalton Kincaid is considered a high-upside value pick at his current ADP (TE10-TE11). Despite injury concerns, he has been healthy in training camp and is part of a top-two projected offense. Last season, he led all tight ends in target rate per route run (27%) and yards per route run (2.7), suggesting he is a prime breakout candidate if his snap share increases under Joe Brady.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveSleeper50:00
Andrew Erickson highlights Jalen Coker as a potential waiver wire target or late-round flyer who could emerge as the Panthers' number two receiver early in the season. His matchup against the Bears in Week 1 is noted as particularly favorable for immediate production.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeBust10:26
Andrew Erickson views the Arizona Cardinals as a potential bust candidate due to the team's low Vegas implied totals, suggesting the offense may not sustain the high passing volume seen last year if they shift to a run-heavy approach with Love.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeValue5:21
Andrew Erickson and John Daigle excluded Brooks from their breakout list because the Carolina Panthers are not near the top 10 in implied points and face a difficult schedule after winning their division last year.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeBust96:58
Andrew Erickson expresses concern regarding Josh Jacobs, noting his current MCL injury and a significant drop-off in production and efficiency during the second half of last season. At over 28 years old with heavy career usage, Jacobs is described as having a 'fragile profile,' making him a risky asset for the upcoming season.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveBreakout30:19
John Daigle is high on McConkey, citing the arrival of Mike McDaniel as a play-caller for the Chargers. Daigle notes that McDaniel's history of utilizing motion and high-efficiency passing schemes, combined with Justin Herbert's talent, creates significant upside for McConkey, who maintains a high target share from motion.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:43
Andrew Erickson is high on Ladd McConkey, noting that the Chargers' new offense under a play-caller who emphasizes motion (a key strength for McConkey, who had a 23% target share from motion in his career) will unlock his potential. With Keenan Allen gone, McConkey is expected to return to his rookie-season form where he was a fringe WR1, and he is a priority target in drafts.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveSleeper96:52
Andrew Erickson identifies MarShawn Lloyd as a high-upside, late-round breakout flyer. Lloyd serves as a contingency plan for Josh Jacobs, who is dealing with an MCL injury and showed declining efficiency in the second half of last year. Erickson highlights that Lloyd is healthy, plays in a top-10 offense, and is viewed bullishly by the team, making him a valuable target behind a fragile veteran profile.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveValue47:29
John Daigle and Andrew Erickson view Mike Evans as a value pick in rounds 7-9. Despite a down year due to injuries, Evans is now in a highly efficient Kyle Shanahan offense. Erickson notes Evans is a strong bet to flirt with double-digit touchdowns and is a target for those looking for ceiling outcomes at his current ADP.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveBreakout31:57
Andrew Erickson includes Quentin Johnston as a player he is baking into every draft, citing the overall high-powered potential of the Chargers' offense, which he believes belongs in the top 10 implied totals.
Insight pageRashid Shaheed
PositiveBreakout52:00
Rashid Shaheed is undervalued as a talent who previously matched Chris Olave's production in New Orleans. Now with Seattle, he is expected to see increased usage as a downfield threat with a full offseason of integration. Despite a difficult transition mid-season last year, his contract and target-earning ability make him a strong breakout candidate in a top-10 implied offense.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout93:49
Andrew Erickson likes Rashid Shaheed as a ceiling player to chase in his current draft range. While there are questions about passing volume and the sustainability of a second receiver behind JSN in Seattle, Shaheed has already shown success matching Chris Olave. Erickson notes a favorable Week 1 matchup against Carlton Davis, a 'boom-or-bust' cornerback, which could provide an early-season breakout opportunity.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveRole37:54
Andrew Erickson identifies Rhamondre Stevenson as the superior running back in the Patriots' offense, noting he is the preferred choice for all-down work, pass protection, and red zone effectiveness. Stevenson is projected to out-snap and out-touch Travion Henderson, making him a reliable weekly starter and a strong value pick in the middle rounds for managers who went heavy on other positions early.
Insight pagePositiveValue61:44
John Daigle views Rhamondre Stevenson as a solid RB2 value in the middle rounds. Despite the hype around Travion Henderson, Daigle notes that Stevenson handled 55% of backfield touches and maintained a 12% target share after returning from injury last season, proving he is the more reliable weekly starter.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveBreakout35:45
Andrew Erickson identifies Rome Odunze as a breakout candidate, noting that his rookie season was derailed by a foot injury after a strong start (WR9 in points per game through nine weeks). Erickson expects positive regression for Caleb Williams, which will benefit Odunze, and highlights that third-year receivers frequently hit WR1 territory.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeUsage167:16
John Daigle notes that Tony Pollard's yards-per-route-run has decreased for three consecutive seasons, suggesting a lack of 'juice' in the receiving game. This decline in efficiency makes him vulnerable to being overtaken by more explosive players like Nick Singleton as the season progresses.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout14:59
John Daigle projects a top-12 ceiling for Flowers, citing expected regression in Baltimore's pass volume (second-fewest attempts last year) and a new offensive play-caller, Declan Doyle, who is expected to increase Flowers' red-zone and end-zone usage.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com, or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. We have talked a ton about breakouts here on Fantasy Bros.
0:09Everybody's talking about breakouts. We're gonna do it again, but this time we got a little bit of theme that's gonna push
0:16the limits to both of our great analysts in finding some of these breakouts.
0:20And we are looking at breakouts backed by Vegas math.
0:22Whether we're looking at implied total odds, which is gonna kind of be an overarching theme to it.
0:28We're also gonna have some other analytical things that are gonna be the approach.
0:32I'm going to be referencing some of the totals, the season long future totals.
0:36But at the end of the day, these 10 breakout players that we're gonna be hyper-focused on, were kind of pushed to
0:42both of these great guys via Vegas math. So just a little bit of a slight angle.
0:47The two gentlemen I have with me, of course, Andrew Erickson.
0:50I am only allowed to do shows with Andrew Erickson here on Fantasy Pros at this point.
0:55It's just become, you know, it's a definitive. It's a definitive.
0:58I do an episode, Erickson's gotta be there. But we had to get a big dog in and we got John Daigle
1:04from Establish the Run, who's gonna be joining us and talking about some great breakouts.
1:08Where John, we were forcing you into not just giving us a breakout list, but as I'm gonna break down here in
1:14a second, using some of those Vegas implied totals, overarching full season things.
1:18Did you find the experiment here, maybe a tiny bit more refreshing, as far as like having parameters about how to build your breakouts out?
1:25Because to be fair, and not to not let you answer here, a lot of us have all built our breakouts.
1:31And when you have to do that, you tend to, you're repeating yourself and repeating yourself.
1:36But there's a little bit of an experiment in here that was gonna force you to take another angle to this.
1:42Did you find this like challenged you a bit more than your normal breakouts?
1:46Forcing me to take an angle is a really good way to put it.
1:50It wouldn't shock anyone to learn that every podcast they listen to typically begins with a show sheet.
1:55Thus, we are bouncing topics off of one another.
1:57And the topic today, although we are going off of, as you mentioned, top 10 and implied points, it was really hard
2:04for me not to stretch the truth just because our job is to prognosticate and predict.
2:08So I understand baking in every market and piece of information we have, but I live by nothing.
2:13Nothing is law because again, we are predicting. So when someone tells me, for example, that the Seahawks are top 10 and
2:20implied points, I'd be like, it makes sense if Clint Kubiak was still around.
2:24But against this schedule this year, I have significant doubts about that.
2:27And I can talk about the offense. I prefer to weasel up into the top 10 because I'm still pushing back by understanding that market sentiment.
2:34So it was a challenge for sure, but I believe I followed the rules to the best of my ability.
2:40I like that. And Erickson, you know, we're talking off air.
2:43So I want you to kind of lament on it for just a second because I am going to be giving the
2:49numbers here for the top 10 implied totals via sharp football.
2:53That's going to be something I'm going to mention as kind of a reference point.
2:57But again, not to this isn't just not breakouts.
2:59These are 10 breakout players and it's not the theme didn't just have to dictate, you know, oh, this is why the only reason this guy's a breakout.
3:07These are those players, but setting the parameters kind of honed in.
3:11What did you find or whether it's useful or maybe even a disadvantage when you were kind of putting together some of
3:17these breakouts that maybe you haven't talked about on every other podcast before?
3:21When neither I or John Daigle were allowed to add Jonathan Brooks to the breakout players here because the Carolina Panthers are
3:27not near the top 10 in terms of implied points this year.
3:30And I don't think that's surprising to anybody, especially given that they're facing a much tougher schedule because they won the NFC, their division last year.
3:38So no Jonathan Brooks. We have referenced him on a couple other shows.
3:41So make sure you go tune back to the fantasy pros feed and listen to where we've adjusted with the injury news to Chuba Hubbard.
3:49But I really like this exercise. And if anything, it gave me insight on, OK, how do you find some of these breakout players?
3:55Sometimes it's just based on their offensive environment. So it kind of opened my eyes to, well, if this offense is as
4:02good as Vegas is projecting it to be, where are the cheap players?
4:05Just finding some of these cheap players on some of these cheap offices that at least should be average, if not top 10.
4:12And that's the expectation where maybe you can find some value here in the later rounds.
4:16Yeah. And maybe we should do like a, it's like a cold open for the editors.
4:21Just cut it like this. The 10 breakout players that aren't Jonathan Brooks coming up next.
4:25That's a way to sell a breakout episode. Yeah, that's a pro right there because that is every episode.
4:31Everywhere, you know, when you talk breakouts, you're going to get Jonathan Brooks.
4:35We were joking about this off air. It's just like every question we answer at this point is like, what round now does Jonathan Brooks go?
4:42This would be an episode that does not do it because as mentioned the focus on the implied total.
4:47So let's take a look at those for a second.
4:50This is via sharp football. The 10 teams with the highest points per game implied totals are as such the Rams at
4:56the tippy top at around 26 and a half points.
4:59You've got the bills coming in at two, the lions at three, the bangles at four, the Ravens at five, just under 26 points per game.
5:07The Cowboys, the 49ers, the Packers, the Seahawks, and the bears.
5:10Those 10 teams with the high implied total are going to, for the most part, feed this.
5:15There's a couple other little caveats in here. There's actually a team that all of us were like, wait, what?
5:20When we did this process that they didn't end up becoming top 10, there's a player that we got to talk about.
5:27And then we've got a couple of quick hits at the end that maybe don't necessarily jump into this, but you know,
5:33for the most part, these are powered by the high end implied totals.
5:37I also thought interesting, and this was something Erickson said off air that I just want to put in before we jump into the names.
5:44If you look at the bottom five implied team totals, uh, implied points per game team totals via sharp, you get the
5:50Raiders, the Dolphins, the Browns, the Jets, and the Cardinals.
5:53Erickson, you had said something off air that's interesting of like, look at the Cardinals that we're looking to draft and they
5:59are literally at the worst implied total overall. Is there anything in that experiment where, you know, you don't want to be
6:05full on black and white and you're like, oh, well, bad implied team totals.
6:09I cannot draft said player. But when you look at that and you think about the amount of players that you might
6:15be drafting from the Cardinals, I give you a little bit of pause when you use this exercise in of like the
6:22Vegas totals, putting it to these fantasy players. Yes, because it seems like a lot of these Arizona Cardinals are being drafted
6:28with the impression that you're going to see the same offense that was for that team last year, where it was just
6:34so much passing volume and then adding a first round running back top five selected pick in the third, fourth round.
6:40And that's what's driving up their cumulative ADP because that's, it's one of the highest among just players being drafted.
6:46When you look at just collective teams, the Arizona Cardinals are above average and that does not align with how Vegas is projecting them.
6:53Well, you're on record of this team's going to go 0 and 17.
6:56So if that's the case, how many points can this team really, really score if they are not throwing the ball 40, 50 times per game?
7:04If it's not just sheer volume, if it is Carson Beck and not a veteran gunslinger like Jacoby Brissette under center and
7:10they're running the football more with Jeremiah Love. So this to me was a signal to somebody who's going to bust really hard in this Arizona Cardinals offense.
7:18And that makes me very gun shy on over-investing in any of those players.
7:22Yeah, John, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that.
7:26There's also two like first round ish players, maybe more second round players from these teams.
7:31I mean, just because it's low implied total doesn't mean guys can't be successful, but you do have Gentie and you've got Devon A.
7:37Chan who, you know, right in that, like, again, like late first, uh, mid second range that are in just these really
7:44bad offenses, bad quarterbacks just abound by this. But anything that you kind of read into that when you look at the low end of totals?
7:51Similar comments to Andrew and that we are betting on profiles still.
7:54So even someone like Jeremiah Love, who may be going up against this year's toughest projected schedule.
7:59Uh, we're betting on the overall profile of a, of a young receiver who was a super athlete being drafted in the first round.
8:06Number three overall capital over the last decade, draft capital alone has accounted for 33% of a rookie running backs fantasy points in that first year.
8:13So it's just like, we're just naturally betting on these kinds of things, despite what the totals say.
8:19But again, there is no skeleton key defense football.
8:21Everyone thinks they have something figured out. That's why it's our job to, to parse through and factor in all the information, including like the biggest totals today.
8:29Well, let's figure some stuff out. Let's jump into this.
8:32Uh, our first section, these are going to be what was titled our costlier breakouts.
8:36We're going to be looking at kind of rounds three through six, half PPR.
8:40You guys have picked out a few names again, uh, everybody understanding what the backbone of this is looking like.
8:46And John, let's start with you with your first breakout player.
8:49Again, it is a breakout, but it is a little bit higher equity of cost between rounds three and six.
8:55So your first breakout. I am going back to Zay Flowers, who for the first time, I do believe has potential top 12 ceiling.
9:01And to be clear, since we aren't talking about the offenses that are in the middle or the bottom, at least a lot today.
9:08I still prefer guys like Devonta Smith, Abeka Buka over Zay Flowers.
9:12But Flowers isn't that great wall of wide receivers that I'm still trying to make sure I come away with at least two or three of them.
9:19I think that's how you win season long drafts this year in both 10 and 12 team leagues is to grab that
9:26third flat tier of wide receivers because they all have top 12 potential.
9:29For Baltimore, they just averaged 24.8 pass attempts per game last season, which was the second fewest of the last decade.
9:35And the six teams to average 27 attempts in that span collectively increased their per game average by 6.1 the following year.
9:42So we just logically already think regression is going to lead to Baltimore passing the ball more, giving Lamar Jackson, who's coming
9:48off a seven year low in points per game and Flowers more volume.
9:51Not only that, but Flowers to this point, as I mentioned him having a top 12 ceiling for the first time, has
9:58never had more than seven end zone targets. That is not where his route tree has ever expanded.
10:03But we finally have a different head coach, a different play caller, an intuitive one, I believe, and Declan Doyle, who is
10:09potentially going to change up the route tree for Flowers for the first time ever and use them more in the red zone and in the end zone.
10:17If that's the case, again, similar to when Amon-Ra St.
10:20Brown broke out because they finally started using them more in end zone targets, this is how we get Flowers a ceiling.
10:26So he's a player I've been drafting a lot of this offseason.
10:30Man, John Dale gets me jacked up, by the way.
10:32I just want to point that out. I get jacked up listening to you talk about Zay Flowers.
10:38Erickson, I got a note or two I'm going to throw in on Zay Flowers in a minute.
10:43But what do you think about breakout season for Zay Flowers?
10:46Absolutely love Zay Flowers. Anyone that's tuned into the podcast this year has heard me rant about Zay Flowers.
10:51And this is the year he finally gets targets in the red zone.
10:55And to the point of a new offensive play caller, Declan Doyle, a player that is a head coach that coming from
11:01Sean Payton, I think, yeah, we're going to see a little bit more red zone usage for Zay Flowers.
11:07And the Ravens last year were not effective in the red zone.
11:10Like they were one of the rest, the worst red zone offenses last season.
11:14So if they do want to be more efficient down there, we know Lamar Jackson can throw for a ton of touchdowns.
11:20One of the highest passing touchdown rates in NFL history.
11:23So I'm a big believer in Zay Flowers this year.
11:26Baltimore Ravens number five on that list of implied points per game totals via sharp.
11:30And just a couple of things I put out the fantasy pros aggregate projections.
11:34Zay Flowers comes in at 81 receptions, just under 1200 yards and 6.5 touchdowns for better, for worse, wherever that is for people.
11:41What I thought was interesting is I did compare this to one of the books on DK on their player futures and
11:47DK and the line over there was 995.5 over under for receiving yards on the season.
11:5174 and a half catches, five and a half touchdowns.
11:54So lower than the projections, but that's like a common theme.
11:57But I did find interesting. This is the same receiving yards line as Pickens and only 24 less than Chris Olave.
12:03So this isn't necessarily me. This is fantasy pros.
12:06Go to betting pros for all those plays. But if you're looking for either comparisons to projections on those lines or you're
12:12looking for any of those interesting gaps between them, I will say if you were a betting person and you like where
12:18Flowers is heading, there's a 160-yard gap between where some of those books are putting the total future line and what the
12:25projections are looking like for Zay Flowers. So just a couple of interesting notes there.
12:29Erickson, you are going to come in with a team that just comes in at the top 10.
12:34And we've actually talked a lot about them because the defense stank and the offense looking good.
12:39And this has been a very popular player. So your first on the breakouts is who?
12:43Colson Loveland, Bears second year tight end. I think that he is an easy breakout candidate.
12:48Again, the Bears offense as a whole, they just sneak into the top 10 in terms of the implied team totals that Vegas is giving us.
12:55But I think that this team is going to score so many points because this defense is not going to stop anybody.
13:02Like this looks like on paper, one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
13:06And last year, what we saw from these teams, it was the Cincinnati Bengals.
13:10It was the Dallas Cowboys. These offenses were prolific for fantasy football purposes because the defenses could not stop anybody and the offenses were filled with explosive playmakers.
13:18So that's exactly what we're going to see here from the Bears.
13:21And I do want to make a reference point.
13:24I did misspoke talking about Declan Doyle. He came over from the Bears last year.
13:28That's where he was offensive coordinator. Sean Payton was with Declan Doyle during some time in Denver.
13:33So that was the overlap there. But going back to the Bears and just how exciting this offense can be with Colson
13:39Loveland, I think that he's going to be the main driver of this passing game.
13:43He was the first pick that Ben Johnson made after becoming the head coach of the Chicago Bears.
13:48It was not Luther Byrd and it was Colson Loveland when tight end didn't really seem like a big need, but they
13:54had no hesitation to taking him 10th overall. And once they took the training wheels off of him, this guy just absolutely erupted down the stretch.
14:02Last four games, Loveland commanded 28.5% target share, averaged nearly 12 targets per game.
14:06He was averaging in the playoffs almost 100 receiving yards per game.
14:09He had 25 total targets in the games that meant the most for the Chicago Bears last season.
14:14As a rookie, he led the team in receiving yards.
14:17That is not for the norm. Like that is so crazy for a tight end to do that.
14:22So Loveland finished the regular season top five among tight ends and PFF receiving grade second in our top five.
14:28Also in yards per route run at 1.97 from week seven onward top five in targets, catches and yards, 26% target rate.
14:34He was tight in foreign points per game. Only Trey McBride had more receiving arts per game than the Bears tight end.
14:41And that was due to Trey McBride running just an insane amount of routes.
14:45We still saw Colson Loveland splitting time with other tight ends and not necessarily running a full route tree until the end of the season.
14:52So the draft capital is there for him. The profile is there for him.
14:56And right now with Luther Byrne dealing with an injury, Roma Dunze, I like him as an upside play as well.
15:02But does this foot injury linger into the season?
15:04It remains to be seen. So I think that Loveland is just going to be the entire offense.
15:09And if this team is throwing a ton, you could see Loveland having a run out where he's running as many routes
15:16like Trey McBride did last year because the Bears offense is always throwing the football in the second halves of games because
15:22the other team is scoring 30 points on them.
15:24John, this is an interesting one when you look at like the tight end three kind of across the market and there's still a high cost.
15:32But when you're talking and again, people understanding like we're doing tiers of kind of these breakouts.
15:37These are the higher end capital players you're drafting that have breakout potential.
15:40What's your level of buying from a tight end three or maybe four in some cases that can really probably change the tier?
15:47Because I think the breakout has to be that he is on level with a guy like McBride and Bowers.
15:52So are you a buyer of this breakout happening or do you think he does just kind of establish these solid projections,
15:59but the projections just still don't really put him in the same level as Bowers and McBride?
16:04It's eerily reminiscent of why I preach going Trey McBride instead of Brock Bowers last year.
16:08I say instead of not over because it's exactly where ADP in the market dictated for them, where Bowers was an end
16:14of first round kind of guy, but he had to separate mightily to then be worth more at cost than McBride going
16:21around a round and a half later in drafts.
16:23That's the same for, in my opinion, McBride and Loveland this year, where in some home leagues, you know, I've done a lot of mock drafts already.
16:31People are going to take McBride over Bowers anyways, but even as the second tight end who's now neck and neck and
16:37ADP with Bowers, we're talking about getting Loveland two or three rounds later.
16:41So McBride has to separate that much more, not only from Bowers, but from Loveland.
16:45Thus, Loveland is the player I want, and I'm just not going to have any of McBride this year because since they
16:51are so close, I would rather have Bowers or then wait.
16:54I 100% echo that. I completely agree with that.
16:57And Loveland, you know, we've seen in some instances go four or five, a recent mock draft we did, we saw it
17:03get pushed a little bit, but you know, Eric's in a D-brower in that one.
17:07If you look at the projections, 78 catches on fantasy pros, over 900 receiving yards and 6.7 on the touchdowns, so around seven touchdowns.
17:14Those are pretty good, solid, aggressive numbers that I think there's room for equity if you're getting them in the fourth or fifth round.
17:21Doing that same comparison, again, loosely using Vegas and just using DK as a line for futures, they had them around 825
17:27on the receiving yards, 70 catches, five and a half touchdowns.
17:31An interesting note to that, Warren is projected for more yards, but the touchdowns were in favor of Colson Loveland, and that could be a big difference.
17:38And if you were looking for a cushion gap between projections and maybe the Vegas lines, it seems to be receptions that
17:44the projections were an eight plus reception gap in favor of what you're seeing out there in the market.
17:50So either way, it's like positive. It's positive on both of those.
17:53So I really like this Loveland one. All right, let's go to number two for each of you guys as we are
18:00jumping into the kind of high equity rounds three through six breakouts.
18:03And Daigle, you are going to pick the first guy that we all were like, wait, what?
18:08This isn't the top 10 in implied totals, but they're right there.
18:11And boy, if you ain't looking at the numbers, you're going to assume they are.
18:15So let's talk about this wide receiver. I'm shoving the Chargers offense in everywhere.
18:19And I want to zoom out real quick and explain why I'm high on my wide receiver, lad McConkie in this range,
18:26because think about what Mike McDaniel did for such a limited quarterback into a tongue of Iowa that included leading the NFL
18:32and touchdown rate and yards per attempt as the number nine MVP candidate in 2022 to a led the league in passing
18:38yards with 4,600 in 2023 and then led the league with 73% completion rate in 2024.
18:43Now he gets Justin Herbert, who's not limited in any capacity of the game.
18:47Not only that, but McDaniels Dolphins for that four year stint led the league in their rate of dropbacks that included motion.
18:53And lad McConkie's average of 23% target share for his career from motion.
18:57For reference, that mirrors his target share from his rookie year when he averaged 15 points per game and everyone then drafted
19:03him in the second, third round last year. He's somewhat in that same ADP range, except with a better play caller and
19:09sticking now instead of with that higher target share and two wide receiver sets, as opposed to what we saw last year with a career low 11.3.
19:17So it's a matter of being high on the Chargers offense overall, but lad McConkie, Justin Herbert, Quentin Johnston, these are guys
19:23that I'm baking into every single draft. I also like that, you know, again, the theme of the episode with the Vegas,
19:29I like you pushing back a little bit on that as well, because it's just, it doesn't mean this, it's going to flow out like this.
19:37Like these would be the top 10, like this is absolutely a team.
19:40If the question was, Hey, who's a team not in the top 10 implied totals that could probably get to top five, you would say the Chargers.
19:48So I like this. I also think this is a really interesting one, Erickson, because here at Fantasy Pros, if Debro was here, he's a Quentin Johnston guy.
19:56You're the Trey Harris guy and lad McConkie kind of gets the short end of the stick.
20:01So what do you think? Is this maybe a breakout that you're going to push against, or are you going to buy
20:07it because you think this offense is going to be a powerhouse and should belong in the top 10?
20:13Well, if it is a powerhouse, then we're assuming that it's going to be supporting multiple assets.
20:17So I agree with lad being the number one guy ranked among the Chargers receivers.
20:22Again, going back to his rookie year, he almost put up, or he did put up over 1400 yards, essentially when you're including that playoff game.
20:29So, and I think that that matters when you're projecting these guys forward.
20:33What was the biggest difference last year besides the offensive line, Justin Herbert dealing with injuries?
20:37Oh, this guy named Keenan Allen, who led the team in targets last year because he had a relationship and rapport with Justin Herbert.
20:44And I think that his skillset overlapped and hurt lad McConkie the most.
20:48And I know last year, thinking back to the conversations we had with other people drafting was, okay, like how much is
20:54Keenan Allen going to impact lad McConkie? Well, lad McConkie's a stud.
20:57Like he was so great as a rookie. It's not going to matter at all.
21:02Well, that not be the case. Keenan Allen led the entire Chargers roster and targets, especially being Herbert's guy on third downs.
21:08And that trust was there. Whereas that's no longer a problem anymore.
21:11Like he and Allen's not coming back to the Chargers.
21:14So I think that means we're going to see more of what we saw from lad during his rookie season when he
21:20was a fringe wide receiver one as a rookie.
21:23So I'm definitely here to buy the lad hype entering his third season.
21:27Apparently you're a bears guy too, because you were going to go back to the bears for your second on the breakout.
21:33So you've got a team, you've got a theme.
21:36So talk to us about this bears wide receiver.
21:38And I'm not going to be the guy that has been in the early breakout, you know, episodes just all across the land.
21:45It's the other guy. I'm going with Roma duns a as the breakout here for the bears last year.
21:50He was the number one receiver for this team before he got hurt.
21:54Basically that foot injury derailed what was looking like a true breakout season for Roma duns.
21:58Hey, he was wide receiver nine in points per game.
22:01I believe through the first nine weeks of the season caught five of a six total touchdowns on the year, but then the foot, right?
22:08He got hurt and then he was playing in the second half of the season, but was clearly not at a hundred percent.
22:15So I do think that Odunze showed a lot of growth entering his second season again, has played now two years with Caleb Williams.
22:22And the chemistry really has not been there for the most part between these two players where Odunze has posted an abysmal
22:28catch rate over the last two seasons because Caleb Williams has just been terrible targeting downfield.
22:32Caleb Williams last year at send up was a still a fantasy quarterback one, despite the fact that he had the lowest
22:39completion rate over expectation of any quarterback in the NFL last year.
22:42Again, looking at things that need to regress positively, he obviously took major steps forward in Ben Jensen, Ben Johnson's offense in year one.
22:49And I expect that to continue to grow in year two, especially when I just laid out the case of this bears
22:55defense, this team is going to be in so many shootouts and that's going to start in week one against the Carolina Panthers, right?
23:02Every team is going to smell blood in the water against the bears.
23:06Ben Johnson has been talking about, yeah, we're going to score so many points this year and I couldn't agree more because
23:12dude, you're going to have to score 30 plus points to win games this season.
23:16So I think they're going to be having to throw the ball a ton.
23:20And I think with Odunze, if you just look at historically speaking, when you come to players hitting wide receiver one territory
23:26for the first time, finishing a top 12 receiver that often happens in their third season.
23:31That is actually the most common breakout from the research that I've done.
23:35So Odunze, I think has an opportunity to establish himself potentially as the wide receiver one in this offense with Luther Burton's
23:41sideline with his groin injury throughout the rest of the preseason.
23:44So yeah, Odunze wasn't built in. It wasn't built in a day.
23:47It was built in year three. There it is.
23:50John, were you a, were you a burden guy?
23:53Do you think Odunze has been a value? That's obviously going to adjust a little bit.
23:57What do you think about this breakout potential? And there's been a lot of negativity around Odunze pretty much most of the off season.
24:04I like both of them at cost just because whenever, as Andrew alluded to, Rome got injured last year in week 13
24:10to that point, he was targeted on 24% of his routes.
24:13That's the exact rate that Luther Burton was targeted on his routes to that point as well.
24:18But ADP doesn't reflect that. So Rome is really acting like an arbitrage version of Luther Burton.
24:23Luther Burton can still get there for sure, but so can Odunze and it's not being treated as such.
24:28Really interesting one for him. Our projection 63 catches 981 and eight touchdowns is the projections of fantasy pros projections.
24:34When I compared it against a Vegas line, I saw 825 call it on the receiving yard.
24:39So there's a receiving yard gap, but the biggest gap I saw and take this for whatever it is, whether this is
24:45an opportunity to make a bet like this, or this is maybe fading a little bit of the projections projected at like 5.5, 5.5 is the line.
24:53If you were like trying to bet the over on touchdowns for him and he's projected at eight.
24:58So there's a two and a half touchdown gap.
25:00You're looking for a little bit of extra. If you're looking at that one touchdown gap is like, Oh, this is a fun edge.
25:07The edge there of two and a half is one of the biggest I saw of all these players.
25:13Uh, so Roma Dunze, those are the four players of kind of higher ADP breakout value, but we are going to be
25:19jumping into a lower round for this next group.
25:21But if you like Erickson's play, if you're a bears fan, like Erickson is, even though he's wearing his Patriots polo and
25:28you like the bears on the breakout, well, I've got a great opportunity for you.
25:32How would you like to win an autographed Colson Loveland Jersey?
25:35Yeah. Okay. Well, all you've got to do is subscribe to fantasy pros YouTube channel.
25:39You should do it. Do it right now. I'll wait.
25:42Okay. Now that you've done that now drop a comment below on the video.
25:46You can talk about a Johnny Manziel Jersey that John Daigle's wearing.
25:50You could talk about that very loud shirt that Erickson, whatever you want.
25:53You could say, just say nice stuff. Talk about your favorite breakouts in there.
25:57You will automatically be entered when you do that.
26:00We'll be announcing a winner on the channel. So here's what you got to do.
26:04Turn on the notifications because a, you'll get the, when all we do all the videos, but you want to be able
26:10to claim your prize and that's just going to get it.
26:13You got to claim it. So make sure you're watching the videos.
26:17Colson Loveland autographed Jersey. That could be yours. Want you guys to have it because a breakout season is here.
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27:49All right, let's talk about this next round. So this next tier, these are going to be our mid-round targets.
27:55And there's a little bit of a theme that goes on with this.
27:58Some of the guys that you could kind of target in here are players that jump into vacated targets, maybe touches, red zone vacuum players.
28:05Whether you're focusing on efficient metrics. Bottom line, these are rounds seven through nine breakout players.
28:10And John, we are going to jump into you.
28:13I like that you got a caveat player that you put in there, and I would have been fine if you would
28:19have picked this player, but you went one closer to my heart.
28:22So we're looking at rounds seven through nine. Your breakout player is who?
28:26This is usually, by the way, the range where I check back in for my RB two or three, depending on your
28:32build and what the board gives you in your drafts.
28:35Previously, it was, well, it's still Jalen Warren, but also previously it was Jonathan Brooks.
28:39That's going to change very quickly with that week-to-week Chuba Hubbard injury.
28:43No longer can you get him here. So instead, I'm still looking at the wide receivers, and I do want to call
28:49out the great Mike Evans, not just because I'm wearing the Johnny Manziel jersey and I went to Texas A&M, so Mike
28:55Evans always has a very close place in my heart.
28:58But it's really a terrific setup for him at this ADP, understanding that we know Mike Evans' ceiling, which is competing as
29:04a top 12 wide receiver anytime he's healthy. But the board isn't taking him top 12.
29:09This is where he goes. And it's because last year he scored as few as touchdowns three in the last decade due
29:15to playing a career low eight games. Maybe the substation has something to do with this.
29:20And Mike Evans is always injured this year. But the fact is he lands with Kyle Shanahan in an offense that's finished
29:26top nine in yards per attempt in every campaign since 2019.
29:29It's going to be one of the most efficient offenses in the league, as it always is.
29:34And now they have Mike freaking Evans as their wide receiver one, also removing Ricky Pierce off from the field.
29:40So in this territory in drafts, I just can't imagine not coming away with Evans and starting him whenever he's healthy.
29:46Yeah, and he's a goofy one because it's like, I guess if you get a hyper focus on the term breakout, like he's obviously just been incredible.
29:53But it was just it was a bad year.
29:56There were injuries. There's just kind of weirdness with the injuries out there.
29:59But like the breakout is when you look at like projections that are on Mike Evans.
30:04And then you think about the reality of what can happen.
30:07Projections on Evans, 67 catches, 950 on the yards and seven touchdowns.
30:11We might be way low on that. But I will tell you the one little interesting caveat was this was one of
30:17the closer ones, I thought, versus the Vegas line to what the projections were.
30:21They met in the middle a whole lot. So there's no like edges.
30:24But also my point to this is it's kind of supportive.
30:28I think the Vegas lines are kind of supportive to the projections, but I don't think any of them are building in ceiling.
30:34I don't think there's a lot of ceiling in there where Mike Evans can lead the league in receiving touchdowns.
30:40Obviously, if he could stay healthy, he's a top target share if George Kittle misses time.
30:44So obviously, I'm very, very much in on this one.
30:47Erickson, I think you're going to kind of check off and sign off on Mike Evans as being a breakout comparative to
30:53where he was like in last season and also just a value in where he's going.
30:58I love him where he goes in the drafts.
31:01I took him in the fifth round in the mock draft.
31:04We just did Welsh because I ended up stacking with Brock Purdy with my last pick because Brock Purdy was second in
31:10passing touchdowns per game last year behind only Matthew Stafford.
31:13So I can't guarantee how many catches or yards Mike Evans is going to get in 2026, but I can guarantee he's
31:19going to flirt with double digit touchdowns. And again, sometimes that's enough.
31:22So if you're betting on him in the markets, I think I got him at 40 to one to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns.
31:30If the hamstring can just hold on for 13 games, I think we can get there for Mike Evans because again, look at him when he's healthy.
31:37He's averaging double digit touchdowns every single season. So I think that's where he's going to be used the most in the 49ers offense.
31:4449ers, seventh in implied total points per game, just as a reminder there.
31:48All right, Erickson, you've got your pick here. We're definitely getting into kind of a sneaky range.
31:53And actually, I will tell you this player, much higher projections than I actually, I just don't think I had to pay attention to our fantasy pros projections.
32:01When I saw it, I was like, okay, they're really in on this.
32:04You're going to go with a running back who is not the starter on their team, but you think the breakout is locked.
32:11So let's hear it. Blake Corum for the Los Angeles Rams.
32:14And this is the first time I've talked about Corum as a potential breakout player because the parameters kind of shifted me
32:20into thinking about, okay, who's a running back on a high powered offense that could score a lot of fantasy points.
32:26And Corum last year had a mini breakout. You know, he was in the second half of the season taking on a
32:32much larger role in the Rams running game. And both he and Kyron Williams were effective last year.
32:37And I don't want to be another analyst that's just coming down to Kyron Williams is going to lose his job to Blake Corum.
32:44And it's all over for Kyron Williams because I've done that song and dance for multiple years and I don't want to do it anymore.
32:51That being said, like Corum is still a player that the Rams are very, very excited about from the coach speak index,
32:58talking about Sean McVay and expectation for Blake Corum this year and how excited McVay is to watch him break out.
33:04The first thing he says is I love Blake.
33:06He's a stud. He's going to be a big factor in what we're going to do this year.
33:11And I love everything he's about. So yes, Sean McVay loves Kyron Williams, but he also loves Blake Corum.
33:17And we saw that play out last year when both guys were highly efficient in terms of rushing success rate.
33:22And the big thing that I noticed in terms of the usage shifting was Blake Corum took on a much larger role in the red zone.
33:30So he was getting a lot more goal line touches.
33:33When you look at Kyron, Kyron only had 54% of the goal line carries last year, which ranked 20th among all running backs.
33:39So I think that Blake Corum has a chance to, if there is an injury to Kyron Williams, where how high we'll
33:45be ranking Blake Corum if Kyron Williams misses time.
33:48He is explosive last year. He was one of the most explosive rushers, second highest explosive run rate last year for Blake Corum.
33:55Look, he's entering his third season showed out after a really bad rookie year.
33:58I mean, he was left for dead in a lot of situations, but he bounced back after being injured his last season at Michigan.
34:05So I just think that with Blake Corum, looking at the price versus him and Kyron, I think Kyron can meet his ADP.
34:12But I think that Blake Corum has a chance to massively exceed his ADP.
34:16And that's the direction ultimately I land on when I'm looking at how do I get access to this high power Rams offense?
34:22I think I prefer Corum more at cost, not to say that Kyron can't because I want to be clear, like this
34:29doesn't necessarily mean Kyron has to get hurt or has to fail.
34:32But I think Blake Corum still has room to grow because they want to feature him more in this offense.
34:38Yeah, I actually like to make a statement to this that I actually think this, if you care about thematically what we're
34:44doing in the episode, might be the best representation of all of the names here because it is a top 10 offense.
34:50I think the Rams are number one. I think they're number one implied here.
34:54This is a guy that's going outside the top 30.
34:57And I think this has like the best representation of it in also that like they just switch drives like that's just what they do.
35:04Like if you look at the total points, if they're going to continuously just dominate teams are going to score points left and right.
35:11It's just they get dry. Like Kyron gets first drive, Blake Corum gets a second drive.
35:16There's touchdown opportunities. Like I think this really represents like the best version of what we're talking about here.
35:21Number one in over a half point per game more than number two on this list.
35:25And the projection, as I was mentioning, 800 rushing yards, six touchdowns and 167 carries.
35:30So imagine if they are scoring points at will and those carries go up, you could have another guy floating with a thousand yards.
35:37But John, what do you think about Blake Corum backing and kind of maybe even focusing on just how high power this offense is?
35:43Can he really break out if Kyron Williams isn't like gone from this offense in some capacity?
35:48I'll speak on it from a different angle because how I've typically maneuvered through drafts so far this offseason has not always
35:54led me to Blake Corum, but it has always led me to fade Kyron Williams in that dead zone of running backs.
36:01For example, whenever we're doing offseason work, I typically start with what happens after bye weeks since that's the only time during
36:07the year where teams get a refresher and get to breathe and reassess what's going on.
36:12And after the bye, before the bye, I should say Kyron Williams handled 74% of the team's backfield touches 13 games after the bye, including the postseason.
36:19He was down all the way to 60%. And that's because Blake Corum finished second only to Devon Achan and their rate of 10 yard carries.
36:27The Rams had no choice but to give a guy who was one of the most explosive running backs in the league more carries and more touches overall.
36:35So I will say that I'm just really the theme here for me is just being behind on Kyron Williams and that tier of running backs there.
36:42Jumping over to your guys' next two. I swear to God, when I saw this, I thought this was Erickson's.
36:48I was like, wait a minute. This is Erickson's name because I can already tell you Erickson's going to agree with this one.
36:54So I'm down with this, John. You're going to go with a running back in this breakout territory.
37:00So which running back is going to break out between those rounds like seven through nine?
37:04Everyone remembers that Travion Henderson's breakout as a starter in your lineup was easy to predict because Andre Stevenson was injured.
37:10Thus, you just always started Travion Henderson. Pretty simple.
37:13But whenever Stevenson came back from the bye from week 15 on, so we're including the Super Bowl run in these splits,
37:19he handled 55% of the team's backfield touches more than Travion Henderson for a 12% target share.
37:24So still have the receiving profile we like and more importantly, a higher rate of explosive runs, 10 yard carries than Henderson
37:30as well as just the overall better player. I'm not even saying Henderson is a bad pick, especially if you start.
37:36Elite running back, you're double tapping or grabbing them early.
37:39And then you have the room for a player who opening the year, like we can all be honest here, Henderson's unstartable
37:45to open the year until we see a bigger role.
37:48You can definitely add that as your RB4 and then maybe not even add one the rest of the way.
37:54But to begin the year, Stevenson's what he showed us when he returned from injury and the team, even though Henderson broke
38:00out when he wasn't available, Stevenson's an RB2. He's a weekly starter until we see otherwise.
38:04So I still like Stevenson in this range, depending how you draft and you need to plug in that player.
38:10Erickson, I mean, I know you're just full on.
38:13We just did the Extra Point podcast where we talked kind of extensively.
38:16You're wearing your Patriots stuff. You were just talking with one of the Patriots beat reporters, and I think you had an extensive conversation on this.
38:24So I know you're going to kind of co-sign this idea.
38:27Again, the value versus breakout thing is really kind of interesting in this.
38:31And this is one of those teams that feels like a top 10 offense just right outside of it.
38:36They're inside the top 15, inside the top 13.
38:38So this is definitely going to be allowed. But I know you co-sign over Andre Stevenson breaking out.
38:44Stevenson is the better running back. At least that's what the Patriots believe at this time.
38:48So I think that it's important for fantasy managers to take note of that, where Stevenson does everything that the Patriots want
38:54him to do from pass protection, from catching the ball, from red zone effectiveness.
38:58Henderson has his role in this offense where, yes, they need explosive plays.
39:02They're going to try to scheme him up touches in space.
39:05That's Henderson's role. But when it comes to playing all the downs, seizing 15, 20 touches, rushing the ball in grind time,
39:11Ramondre Stevenson, that's the player that they want on the field.
39:15So don't be surprised when week one comes, Patriots on the road against Seattle.
39:19Who's the first handoff going to? It's not going to be Travion Henderson.
39:22It's going to be Ramondre Stevenson. And I'm actually interested to see when we have the consensus week one rankings, which Patriots
39:28running back will be ranked higher for week one specifically.
39:31And then even heading into week two, when we see what happens in week one, where you're probably going to see Ramondre
39:38Stevenson out snap and out touch Travion Henderson. Henderson might rip off a big play.
39:42I know that he had some big plays against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, but I think that Stevenson right now,
39:48especially where if you're punting off your RB2, he's a great late round running back to grab at the end of those middle rounds.
39:55If you need a fill in, if you've gone wide receiver heavy, you drafted an early round quarterback, you went early round tight end.
40:02I think Stevenson really fits those builds well because he's got a three on skill set.
40:06I think that overall, I think that he's just been kind of underrated overall when he's got pass catching chops.
40:12Just look at his season game log. I mean, he's been a fantasy RB1 before, obviously before they drafted Henderson.
40:18But in the second half of last year, he was one of the most effective running backs when the Patriots run game got going.
40:24So I'm co-signing with this. And I think it's actually kind of ludicrous that the Patriots aren't a top 10 implied offense.
40:31I get their schedule is going to be tougher this year, but I think that just exists to me that this team
40:37is going to be playing with more negative game scripts.
40:40And that means they're gonna have to throw the football more.
40:43Interesting. The projections, 167 carries. That's the exact same as Blake Corum, by the way.
40:47Just over 700 rushing yards, six touchdowns, a little over 150 on the receiving.
40:51So it's like just shy of 900 total yards.
40:54So, you know, things have not caught up. And if he is going to get volume, going to be a player that's
41:00going to be thrown out there and probably become a pretty good value.
41:04The last one in this tier, this is funny because I feel like he's in like every like avoid article.
41:09So I like that you're taking this angle. This player has who's the other one?
41:14I just mentioned the, the, oh, Roman Duns. They Roman Duns.
41:17They had that huge touchdown differential between Vegas numbers and projections.
41:20This is the other guy that has a two touchdown projection differential, 57 catches, 700 yards, five and a half touched touchdowns.
41:26It is a tight end Erickson that you're going to pick for the breakout.
41:30And like I said, this name is usually kind of in a lot of avoids for people.
41:35Because he's never healthy. And that's the concern with Dalton Kincaid.
41:38But going back to top 10 projected offenses, who's at the very tippy top of the list is the Buffalo Bills coming in at number two.
41:45So we're all trying to figure out exactly, you know, will DJ Moore be an alpha in this offense?
41:51Will it just be more of a mixed bag?
41:53What I do know is that Dalton Kincaid, when he's on the field, he's good.
41:58And he's hyper targeted, super efficient. He caught 80% of his passes last year for 682 yards.
42:03He also had seven touchdowns, which is a career high.
42:05He was tight end eight in fantasy points per game at 9.6, 2.7 yards per outrun, led all tight ends, ranked third
42:12among all receivers, 27% target rate per outrun. That ranked first among all tight ends as well.
42:16So the only question is, okay, is he going to be healthy?
42:20So far, he hasn't missed any practices at Bill's training camp.
42:23So that's a plus. It seems like he is trending towards being healthy for the start of the season.
42:28And can he play more than 50% of the snaps, right?
42:32This isn't a massive ask for a player like Kincaid, who they invested a first round pick in, who's entering a contract
42:38year that, hey, let's feature him a little bit more.
42:41Let's get him on the field more because maybe he's one of our best players on offense.
42:45So if they're opening up the passing game a little bit more with Joe Brady now taking over as the head coach,
42:52no longer a defensive minded head coach kind of, hey, we have to run the ball and play defense.
42:57Maybe we see the pass volume uptick and maybe that means more routes for Dalton Kincaid.
43:02So I think right now you're drafting him at his stone cold floor.
43:05He is a late round tight end where he's going tight end 10, tight end 11.
43:10He beat this ADP last year. Now, part of that was because of the touchdowns, but I think worst case scenario, he
43:16just kind of gives you what he did last year.
43:19And it's like, okay, he's not going to break out, but the upside in this offense, again, going back to how do
43:25we capture upside is you find the cheap pieces of these really good offenses.
43:29And Dalton Kincaid looks like exactly that type of player.
43:32John, where do you sit on that? Again, there's kind of a big discrepancy, whichever way you want to look at it
43:38too, by the way, he's only projected Vegas wise, three and a half touchdowns are that's like the over under line.
43:44So that's a pretty low number. Do you lean more in that kind of fade market or do you buy like the
43:51comment that Erickson said the stone cold bottom is where Dalton Kincaid is at?
43:55What do you think about a breakout? I agree where he's being drafted really does not suggest what happens when he runs more routes.
44:01And we expect then that target share to still stay the same.
44:05Tight end is also difficult this year. Unlike last year, which was really fade mid round tight ends because mid round tight
44:11ends in general have the worst hit rate possible because at a onesie position, it's really easy to match at the back end or streaming the position.
44:19This is why I'm not drafting Tyler Warren this year either, which I know is controversial to say it's not about Tyler Warren, the player at all.
44:26It's just about mid round, mid round tight end being a bet to never make historically, where we can just wait at
44:33this one spot we have to start. And that leads me to then temperature check.
44:37A lot of tight ends along the way this year, last year was easy.
44:41You just wait on Tucker craft, Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goddard.
44:44Even Juwan Johnson, Harold Fannin became last round selections before week one last season.
44:48They all hit instead of taking mid round tight end this year.
44:51As we talked about at the top, it's Bowers in the second round for second round turn waiting on Loveland.
44:57And then from that point forward, I'm just always checking back in on where the room is going to have Sam Laporta,
45:03Harold Fannin, even though he typically goes right behind Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts, Tucker craft.
45:08And then also we get to the next range and that's where Dalton Kade goes.
45:12I bet even though we have him here as a seventh to ninth round like breakout, I bet he goes further than that in your home league.
45:20People just don't want to deal with the injury risk for recency bias.
45:23But because of that, because of the ADP, it's why I'm so willing to bet on him and then understand worst case,
45:29I drop him and stream the position as I do every year anyways.
45:33Yeah. And I definitely wouldn't have people get hyper-focused on like the round.
45:37So we're talking just general phases. And so I'm glad you pointed that out because that's a good point.
45:42It's like, don't get hyper-focused on that. Even if it's like the 10th round, it's just kind of conceptually where he's at.
45:48And mind you, Bills, two, number two in implied points per game.
45:52So really high-powered offense, making bets for guys that have seen high target shares that have had some injuries, touchdown equity on
45:58one of the higher implied team totals. That does make it sneaky.
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46:21That's fantasypros.com slash free. All right. Last couple that we're doing here.
46:24This is going to be our late round, double-digit breakout.
46:27So rounds 10 plus. I mean, to be honest with you, I think with some of the names you guys pick, it's probably even 12 plus.
46:35You guys have both gone with wide receivers. John, let's jump over to you.
46:39A very popular young name who is being drafted way late.
46:42He's a great late sleeper and obviously been in a lot of conversations.
46:45Some interesting projected lines, projections for the upcoming player.
46:48Around over 600 plus yards, 45 catches, around four touchdowns.
46:51Vegas kind of supports this. And this guy is only from name value has moved up.
46:55It has almost been free 99. So your breakout wide receiver is who?
46:59I'm driving to Peru because that's what sleeper basically makes you do to find his name in the applet.
47:04I'm driving across the country for Dazon Stripling, who again, you have to scroll all the way down for.
47:10And if it were any other offense, like if he were on the Browns, I don't think I'd bet on him.
47:16But we are getting a starting wide receiver under Kyle Shanahan.
47:19So I'm just going to close my eyes and even like like Debra studying and understanding rookie profiles.
47:24And I know his one and only year in the SEC days on Stripling had a 14.9 percent target share.
47:30This is similar to pushing back against Matthew Golden, even as a first round pick last year, because Matthew Golden never earned
47:36targets at any point of his career. So it was not shocking to see him not earn targets as a rookie with the Packers.
47:43Would not be shocking probably to see Stripling not earn targets.
47:46But I also, this is conjecture, I believe that Kyle Shanahan's system is one that elevates lesser talent.
47:51He's the one that schemes you open, not necessarily yourself.
47:54So with Ricky Pierce all out of the way, I'm looking around and I only see Mike Evans and Dazon Stripling ahead of Christian Kirk.
48:01And that's a bet I want to make as the first player taken on day two that the team prioritized.
48:07So I like Dazon Stripling. A point to what you just said about scheming four players.
48:11Juwan Jennings is a prime example of that in that offense.
48:14He's the exact representation of that. Also, I want to poke at you then.
48:18You said if he was a Brown, you wouldn't be interested.
48:21So should Stripling go above Concepcion and Boston? No, because Concepcion, the profile, was significantly better.
48:26It's also a wide open target tree. So I know Debro loves Denzel Boston.
48:30I'm a Concepcion guy. Again, I'm not even talking about Texas A&M.
48:33I've removed my biases since this is my job and I'm very happy with what I do.
48:38But even if you bake in the rushing floor that Concepcion proved us, we also know that punt return, kick return special
48:44teams metrics transition to the next level and make you have proven to be a stickier stat to make you a more explosive receiver in the NFL too.
48:52Concepcion has everything going for him in a wide open target tree.
48:56So I'm not saying get him there, but I do think Stripling, I'm thinking of the ranges in my most recent mock drafts.
49:02He does not go here, but I think he should be forced up around the 10th round probably.
49:07That's a range of players that includes like Jalen Coker, Concepcion.
49:11He should at least be in that tier of players when you start like having him in the search bar and starring his name to remember him.
49:18Jalen Coker, that's an interesting name, Erickson, because what's your nickname?
49:21What do they call you on the streets, Erickson?
49:24What are they calling you? Not Jalen Coker. The Undertaker.
49:27The Undertaker, of course. Sorry, I didn't mean to imply Coker and you have a name like you're in the streets.
49:33Are people calling me Coker out there? No, that's not me.
49:36No, you're the Undertaker and he was shading on this and he used Coker against me.
49:40I just know from a podcast we just did, you are not, I'm a buyer on this.
49:45John's a super smart guy, so you're going to have to go against this.
49:49You're not super into this Stripling side and you were playing some unders based on some of the Vegas totals on Stripling.
49:55So I would prefer some of the other receivers in his general area when you're kind of taking flyers on some players.
50:02So Jalen Coker would be an example of a guy that I think that he can, he's the number two in week one.
50:08And I think that a lot of these players were going to be anchored to what they do early on in the season.
50:15If George Kittle, Mike Evans and Debo Seymour are all out there in week one, how is Stripling going to see targets?
50:21Again, we just talked about how this guy couldn't get targets in the SEC.
50:25Okay, well now it's Debo, Mike Evans and George Kittle.
50:28Are you going to get targets and Christian McCaffrey as well?
50:31So that concerns me of, is he a guy that you're going to draft and you drop after week one?
50:37Or a player like Jalen Coker, who, dude, guys facing, again, the Bears.
50:40The Bears defense, you go to attack that every single week.
50:44I could see Coker being like the most popular waiver wire guy in some of these more shallow leagues where maybe he doesn't get drafted.
50:51But, you know, he could be the most productive receiver for the Panthers in week one with a really juicy matchup against the Chicago Bears.
50:58So that's just one thing that I was kind of looking at when like comparing some of these guys that are closely ranked that are going late.
51:05Well, remember, buddy, we're talking about high powered offenses.
51:08And I would just like to point out. Too much Panthers talk.
51:11I would like to point out, I don't know if you remember this, when we had this exact conversation, I had one
51:18reference point to exactly what you just said of how is he going to get targets?
51:22I less eloquently said what John said. I said, look at Juwan Jennings.
51:26I literally said to you, I said, look at what the 49ers did with Juwan Jennings.
51:30That's the way they're going to use a guy like Stripling.
51:34And John just laid it out way more eloquently.
51:36So point for John, negative points for Eric. I appreciate the judge in this conversation, but also we all understand like this is the trust tree.
51:44We know most of the time these players are getting cut in week one and two anyway.
51:48So I'm really just taking chances and figuring it out.
51:51And as I mentioned, I poked holes in my own analysis.
51:54I told you I'm going with conjecture, which is also why I had a human element into everything.
51:59I don't let the AI overlords overthrow my spreadsheets.
52:02I just think it would also not be shocking the other way if suddenly like we're flexing just on Stripling in week two.
52:09But we can also be cutting them. But I see both planes for sure.
52:12Yeah. And I'm glad you said that last part because you meant cutting as in these are the guys that are more
52:19likely to be cut off your rosters. Not that Stripling is not going to make the 49ers roster.
52:24No, not that. Again, seventh in implied total points for the 49ers.
52:27Erickson, you've got a top 10 implied team on points per game.
52:31And you've got a wide receiver that is going very, very late that you are targeting as a breakout.
52:36Rashid Shaheed for the Seattle Seahawks. And I know that John mentioned the Seahawks being a team that you could see falling
52:42out of the top 10 in terms of the implied team.
52:45And I kind of agree with that because losing Clint Kubiak, I think, is a major loss for this offense overall.
52:51However, I do think that Shaheed is just kind of being undervalued in terms of how good he is as an actual player.
52:58And what we saw with him the last two years when he was with the New Orleans Saints, he averaged seven targets
53:04per game the last two seasons with the Saints.
53:07That would have ranked top 24 among all wide receivers last season.
53:10He got paid by Seattle to come back three-year contract, $51 million.
53:14I had to go back to check exactly how Shaheed was producing alongside Chris Olave.
53:18Over the last two seasons, they played together. Their receiving yards per game was nearly identical.
53:22And Rashid Shaheed was not even seeing the majority of targets in the Saints offense.
53:27Now, I think that's just a credit to Shaheed as a talent.
53:30Obviously, what happened when he was traded to Seattle last year, they didn't use him the right way.
53:35Like, he was thrown in after being traded for.
53:38They tried to integrate him to the offense. But what they found was, hey, what we have going on right now is kind of already working.
53:45Like, we're establishing the run. We're playing great defense.
53:48We're featuring JSN with a 30% target share. Like, Shaheed, like, we don't really need to use him right now.
53:53Now, they used him at times when he was more involved, especially as a downfield threat.
53:58Sam Darn was one of the best downfield passers last year.
54:01That's Shaheed's bread and butter. So I think that with a full offseason install of Shaheed in this offense, I think that
54:07he could easily outproduce where he's going, which is a very similar range to both to John Stribling and to Jalen Coker.
54:14But Shaheed is also a player that when I wrote my identifying wide receiver one breakout article, something that I forgot was Shaheed was undrafted.
54:21So he actually wasn't even my database of players of entering year five.
54:24This is one of the most common breakout types of players where you're a year five player on a new team and
54:31you break out for the first time as a top 12 wide receiver.
54:34Now, I don't think that's going to happen, obviously, with JSN as the entrenched alpha in this passing game.
54:40But the fact that Seattle paid JSN, they paid Rashid Shaheed, they have a conglomerate of running backs.
54:45I think that you could see them throw the ball a little bit more than they saw last year under a new offensive coordinator.
54:52Again, I just think Shaheed is just really underrated.
54:54Average over two yards per route run in 2024.
54:57He obviously got hurt, but he's number one in the Fantasy Pro Sleeper consensus rankings.
55:01He got paid. He showed target earning ability. I just think this guy checks off a lot of boxes.
55:06And if he hadn't been traded to the Seattle Seahawks in the middle of last season, if he had got the run
55:13out with the New Orleans Saints, there's no way he'd be going this low because his final season stats would be much higher.
55:19He would have gotten paid by the Seattle Seahawks.
55:22And how is he not the locked and loaded number two on a offense that maybe it's not top 10?
55:27But I think that the Seahawks will at least be an average offense with Sam Darnold and Brian Flurry.
55:33So that's my take on Rashid Shaheed. What do you guys think?
55:36Well, they are top 10. They're nine. They're nine in implied totals, by the way.
55:41I mean, whether it works out, but they are there.
55:43John, what do you think? Are you going to co-sign this?
55:47Are you going to check off Rashid Shaheed? I've always been a bull for Shaheed.
55:51And looking back just at last year, was targeted on 23% of his route.
55:55So 30th in the entire league in New Orleans.
55:57He gets dealt to Seattle and they just can't figure out a way to use him outside of being Sterling, special teams player.
56:04He drops to being targeted on 13% of his routes, which was 105th.
56:08But this even happened in New Orleans, like Andrew said a couple of years ago, where all it takes is understanding he's
56:14a player who can run the whole route tree.
56:16I don't know why they couldn't figure it out in Seattle last year, but now they really have no choice given we're
56:23just another year aging with Cooper Cup and Torrey Orton still being a player that perhaps breaks out of her cup.
56:29But it sounds like it's going to be rotational role, whereas Shaheed has had success and matched Chris Olavi already.
56:34So I like Shaheed too. I don't know the passing volume, the sustainability of having a second wide receiver in Seattle behind JSN.
56:41But is this time kind of ceiling player we're chasing in this range?
56:44Of course. And maybe some of the questions around the run game right now with injuries to Charbonnet and just them figuring
56:51out what this rotation looks like is going to lead them to pressing into needing to be a little bit more of a pass heavy offense early.
56:58I will say too, again, and I do think that looking at some of these week one matchups does matter because you
57:05could see the needle really move in one direction or the other with some of these more fringy receivers, the Seahawks play my Patriots, my Patriots week one.
57:13Who's Christian Gonzalez going to be guarding? Not Rashid Shaheed.
57:15He's going to be on JSN. So if there's an opportunity where Shaheed actually gets really featured in really early on in
57:22the season, I think he'd be as early as week one when he has to go up against Carlton Davis, who is
57:28one of the more boomer bust type of cornerbacks in the NFL.
57:31So again, beat the waiver wire with some of these players that we're talking about.
57:36All right, boys, this is going to be the final one.
57:39This is your time to shine. We're not going to go back and forth.
57:43This is just your moment to list one player.
57:45I think it's pretty critical to mention, as you guys said, like when you get further down, these sometimes become players that might end up getting cut.
57:53But the end of the draft, this is, you know, post 130 type of breakout player that you guys are going to be hyper focusing on.
58:00Eric, so I'm actually going to start with you so John can finish it out here.
58:05Your very in bottom in breakout flyer at the back half of the draft.
58:09Maybe he gets cut, but maybe it works out big time.
58:12Who are you going with? Uh, Marshall Lloyd, Green Bay Packers, who are eighth in the implied team total rankings.
58:18It's kind of a bet against Josh Jacobs, either staying healthy for the entire season or potentially missing time with a suspension.
58:24So he's already dealing with an MCL injury team has said it's not serious, but we saw Jacobs production and efficiency really
58:30fall off a cliff in the second half of last year.
58:33He is a player that's over 28 years old, has a lot of touches and wear and tear on his body.
58:39And Marshall Lloyd, man, if this guy can just not get injured or just stay on the field, we know the type of juice that he can offer.
58:47So we saw the Packers last year lean a little bit more into Emmanuel Wilson at times.
58:52If Marshall Lloyd can just take on that type of role alongside Josh Jacobs, who I think the team has at least
58:58figured out a plan of, well, what if we don't have Jacobs for a week or two?
59:03What are we going to do? I think Marshall Lloyd right now is their contingency plan.
59:08All reports similar to like a Jonathan Brooks have been that Lloyd is healthy.
59:12He's ready to go. And I think that they're going to potentially unleash him here.
59:16So again, bet on a top 10 offense, a running make that is cheap behind a more fragile profile like a Josh Jacobs.
59:23Those are the bets I like to make. And I'm Marshall Lloyd.
59:26I liked him a lot coming out of college.
59:29I know Daniel, Daniel Jeremiah was very high on him as like, I think the number one running back in his class.
59:35So team is bullish on Lloyd. Again, I can't, I'm not the Oracle.
59:38Whether he can stay healthy or not. But right now he looks like the healthier of the two Packers running backs.
59:44All right, Mr. John Daigle, you get to finish it off here.
59:48The 10th in the breakout players, a deep flyer breakout that you're targeting.
59:52I usually round out my drafts with, depending on how yours goes, a second quarterback.
59:56If you wait beyond the elite tier, a second tight end, if you're streaming the position is trying to hit on the
60:02right one, or most likely a contingency running back, if not multiple.
60:05And out of all the guys I like, and I like a lot of guys who probably aren't going to play much.
60:12Ray Davis, Jaden Blue, the list goes on. Tank Bigsby.
60:15Out of all the guys I like, you don't have to squint to see Nick Singleton being the one that even if
60:21his starter doesn't get injured, overthrows this job entirely at the season's end.
60:24Now, could it be a slow burn? Certainly, because it's still going to be Tony Pollard there.
60:29But the fact is, when we look at like receiving profiles and how you earn roles and then how you become the
60:36more explosive player to earn more touches eventually along the way, Tony Pollard's yards per outrun has decreased for three consecutive seasons now.
60:42He just hasn't had the juice in the receiving game, whereas that's Nicholas Singleton's calling card.
60:47We're looking at a double digit target share the last two seasons in college and over his last three, 1.5 yards per outrun.
60:53So again, usable in the first month of the season?
60:56No, most likely not. But it could be a slow burn similar to Woody Marks where the second half of the year,
61:02especially in deeper 12-14 team leagues, this guy's your RB too because you've surrounded him with other elite talent when you just drafted differently.
61:09I like the conviction on that too, that that's the guy like in the Titans offense as well, that you rock into him.
61:16And I don't disagree. Like finding the target on one of those like running backs that could potentially make that jump and
61:22injury happens, all of a sudden they become a number one.
61:2510 breakout players just spanning the entire board. What was your guys' favorite and who were some breakouts?
61:30If you guys want to follow kind of the same guidelines of what we talked about this episode, you could drop it
61:36in the comments below and tell us some of your favorite breakouts.
61:40Also, I think we maybe implied this, but if you guys hadn't heard over on the tailgate, not only did we break
61:46down week one, Erickson, Fitzy and myself, but Erickson also spent some time talking with one of the Patriots beat reporters.
61:52And if you want to check out that interview, make sure you go and check out us on the tailgate.
61:58Go on YouTube. You can go at tailgate NFL.
62:00It's youtube.com slash tailgate NFL. Do a search for there.
62:03Find the latest episode. Subscribe. We've got winning. I actually think it was a Lydanian Tomlinson autographed jersey that's being given away on that channel.
62:10So go over there and subscribe and make some comments and win some great stuff.
62:14We'd love to have you over there. That's going to do it.
62:18John Daigle from Establish the Run. John, anything you got to plug over on Establish the Run right now?
62:23Tune into the Establish the Run podcast and YouTube feed where you can find all of our upcoming videos for free, including,
62:30just like Fantasy Pro has been doing, a free 12-team mock with the entire ETR staff and just released a Superflex mock
62:36for everyone as well, since those are becoming a lot more popular.
62:39Love it. Yeah, they are. Every question I felt like in the discords we've had have been around Superflex lately.
62:45So I'd love to see it. Absolutely. The thing, though, about Superflex is that what no one wants to hear, you can't be spoon-fed.
62:52Like, you literally just have to fill out your room and go from there.
62:56Superflexes are tough, but also those decisions are what makes it more fun because it's more gratifying the end to make your own pivots.
63:03Oh, I never have more fun than, like, seven quarterbacks going.
63:06I'm the ninth pick, and I can go take Jameer Gibbs, and then I can just then take a wide receiver in
63:12the second and figure out what my— There's nothing better.
63:15It really is. Get ready to know Tyler Shuck and CJ Sturrell, buddy.
63:18When you actually have to draft a Browns quarterback.
63:21When you have to actually pay attention to the bottom implied points per game, unfortunately.
63:25Well, hopefully you guys enjoyed this episode and these breakouts.
63:28Thank you, as always, for hanging out. Make sure you're subscribed to this podcast on audio, and if you haven't, go check
63:34us out on the YouTube where you can win some cool stuff.
63:38That's going to do it. For John and Erickson, I'm Chris Welsh.
63:41You guys have a fantastic one. Good luck drafting, and we'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
63:47Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
63:50If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
63:58Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasypros.
64:01And subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
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