Giants Trade For J.J. McCarthy, Texans FINISHED & Chiefs Super Bowl Bound: NFL Week 3 REACTIONS (Ep. 2228)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 15 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 29, 2026
Published
Tue, September 29, 2026
45
Player insights
40
Players mentioned
Topics
Kenneth Walker IIIJ.J. McCarthyJahmyr GibbsNico CollinsA.J. BrownAlvin KamaraBaker MayfieldBraelon AllenBreece HallBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersBrock PurdyBucky IrvingCaleb Williams
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeRole47:08
The Patriots' offensive struggles are partially attributed to the absence of A.J. Brown, as the team's offensive scheme was heavily built around him as the focal point.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
NegativeUsage6:56
Derek Brown notes that Kamara cannot carry the Saints' rushing attack alone, as the team currently lacks the ability to run the ball effectively.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeInjury3:42
Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand and will miss time. Andrew Erickson believes this effectively ends the Buccaneers' competitive hopes, as they are already struggling and will now turn to undrafted rookie Jalen Daniels.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
PositiveSleeper16:59
The source recommends picking up Braylon Allen if available, noting he is a better target than Ollie Gordon given the uncertainty surrounding Breece Hall's quad injury.
Insight pageBreece Hall
Brian Thomas Jr.
NegativeUsage68:16
The source questions why Brian Thomas Jr. is not being utilized more, suggesting he should be traded if the Jaguars aren't going to use him.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout39:39
Brock Bowers is viewed as a future consensus first-round fantasy pick. Despite injury concerns, he is a 'monster' when on the field, evidenced by a 10-catch, 116-yard, one-touchdown performance in his return. He is being utilized primarily as a wide receiver, running 78% of his routes from the slot or out wide.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveProjection59:40
The source predicts Brock Purdy will win MVP, citing a narrative shift where he is finally receiving credit for his play rather than just being a 'Shanahan merchant.' The 49ers' touchdown rate on drives is historically high, and Purdy ranks first in EPA per dropback and passer rating.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeInjury4:54
Irving missed most of the fourth quarter of the previous game and was seen with an ice pack or wrap on his back.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeProjection67:36
The source believes Caleb Williams will not win MVP because the Bears will not win enough games to keep him in the conversation.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeUsage58:57
The source expresses surprise that Dalton Schultz was not a focal point of the offense, noting that Foster Moreau played more snaps than him.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeInjury3:16
Devon Achane has been ruled out for the season with a torn ACL. The source describes this as the biggest fantasy injury of the week and a brutal blow for the Dolphins.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeBust65:49
The source dismisses Deshaun Watson's chances of winning any major awards, stating he would need to have the greatest season of all time to be considered by media voters.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeBust45:26
Drake Maye is struggling significantly, ranking last among qualified starters in passer rating and total passing EPA while leading the league in turnovers (seven). The source notes he is 'pressing' and failing to see the field clearly, making him a liability in superflex leagues despite a potentially easier schedule ahead.
Insight pageEmmett Johnson
NegativeDepth Chart35:10
The source notes that Emmitt Johnson is part of the Chiefs' backfield rotation and expects his usage to increase following the team's Week 5 bye, consistent with typical rookie development patterns.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeRole18:56
The source expects J.J. McCarthy to take over as the Giants' starting quarterback by Week 5, noting that he is a better fit for the offense than Jameis Winston and provides a younger, more comparable skill set to the injured Dart. While there is concern about his floor, the source believes the coaching staff will put him in a better position to succeed than he had previously.
Insight pageNegativeDepth Chart25:11
McCarthy was traded from the Vikings to the Giants for a 2027 fifth-round pick. Derek Brown argues McCarthy was not given a fair chance in Minnesota and compares his per-dropback metrics favorably to other young quarterbacks.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveUsage24:12
Jahmyr Gibbs is seeing career-high usage, averaging a 75% snap share and a 55% touch rate through three games. The source highlights that the Lions' offense runs through him, and he is currently pacing for over 30 touchdowns, making him a potential league-winning asset.
Insight pagePositiveProjection38:48
Jahmyr Gibbs is performing at an elite level, currently averaging 32.8 PPR points per game, which the source describes as 'ludicrous' and 'insane' production.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveInjury4:06
Coker is dealing with a quad injury, but the team does not believe it is too serious.
Insight pageJameis Winston
NegativeRole30:10
Winston is currently serving as a game manager for the Giants, with the team avoiding an aggressive offensive approach. The source suggests he is holding the clipboard until McCarthy is ready.
Insight pageJared Wayne
NegativeUsage58:53
The source criticizes the offensive coordinator for playing Jared Wayne and Xavier Hutchinson more snaps than Jalen Pitre last week.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveProjection21:56
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is ranked second in yards per route run at 4.6, demonstrating elite efficiency.
Insight pageJaylen Wright
NegativeDepth Chart14:08
Jalen Wright was the backup in Miami before getting injured; the analysts view him as a better player than Ollie Gordon.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection61:06
Josh Allen is currently the MVP favorite at +220, leading the league in total touchdowns and fantasy points since week 15 of last year.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeInjury3:34
Jefferson sustained an ankle injury; while he was close to returning during the game, he was ultimately ruled out, leaving his status uncertain.
Insight pageKendre Miller
NegativeRole7:00
Derek Brown explicitly states that Miller is not the solution for the Saints' struggling rushing attack.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeBreakout32:44
Kenneth Walker has transformed the Chiefs' offense, proving to be an elite receiving back and a major factor in Patrick Mahomes' recent high-level play. He has forced 38 missed tackles in three games, and the source believes his ability to avoid direct hits will help his longevity despite a heavy workload.
Insight pagePositiveUsage38:06
Kenneth Walker is averaging 24.6 half-PPR points per game through three weeks, placing him closer to Jonathan Taylor (RB5) than he is to Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1). The source highlights him as a prime candidate for 'revenge game' production and suggests betting on his touchdown props.
Insight pagePositiveValue65:34
Kenneth Walker is the heavy favorite for Comeback Player of the Year at -275, and the source suggests betting him unless he gets injured.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
PositiveProjection44:16
Kirk Cousins is currently on pace for 51 passing touchdowns and has recorded three consecutive games with three passing touchdowns, placing him tied for second in the NFL in total touchdowns.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeProjection19:56
The source notes that Malik Nabers' fantasy outlook is tied to the performance of the Giants' quarterback situation; while McCarthy could be an upgrade, there is a 'scary floor' if he plays poorly, similar to what was seen with Jefferson last year.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeInjury3:52
Andrews returned to the game after a hand injury, but the source questions if he was limited, noting that a late touchdown went to Matthew Hibner instead.
Insight pageMike Evans
Najee Harris
NegativeUsage30:41
Harris received nine carries in the recent game, which the source interprets as a sign of the team's lack of confidence in their quarterback situation at the time.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveRole56:15
The Texans' offense is significantly hampered without Nico Collins, with the source noting the team has only won one game against a real quarterback when he is unavailable.
Insight pageNegativeUsage57:32
The Texans' offense craters without Nico Collins, as they have only won one game without him; the team lacks explosive plays downfield in his absence.
Insight pageOllie Gordon
NegativeValue14:06
The analysts advise against spending significant FAAB on Ollie Gordon, citing poor efficiency metrics (1.78 yards after contact, 8% missed tackle rate) and the expectation that the Dolphins' backfield will be a committee on a bad offense.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveValue64:10
The source likes Patrick Mahomes at +900 for MVP, noting the Chiefs are likely to win many games and Mahomes is widely considered the best quarterback in football.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeInjury5:26
The source expresses frustration regarding the lack of clarity on Nacua's injury, noting it remains unclear if it is a hip, groin, or sports hernia issue.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
NegativeInjury2:26
Ferguson suffered an ankle injury during the Sunday night game; Derek Brown notes that his absence was a significant loss for the Rams' offense and fantasy managers, as he would have likely produced heavily in Puka Nacua's absence.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeInjury6:44
Etienne pulled up with a hamstring injury during a run, which the source describes as a painful sight.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveValue62:25
The source identifies Trevor Lawrence as a favorite long-shot MVP bet at +1400, noting he has had two monster games and the Jaguars have high upside if they beat AFC contenders.
Insight pageXavier Hutchinson
NegativeUsage57:47
The source notes that when Xavier Hutchinson is the leading receiver, the team is likely to lose, highlighting the offense's capped potential.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveUsage20:09
Despite limited practice and snap counts (under 33% of snaps), Flowers has been incredibly efficient, leading the league in yards per route run (over 9.0) among players with at least 25 routes run.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:19Hello everybody, welcome to the tailgate. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined for our Week 3 Reactions show by Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown.
0:26Guys, it was a very fun week. A lot of really close games, really fun red zone stretch, really fun primetime game to end the night.
0:33Very close one at the end of Broncos-Rams. Some of us are having more fun than others.
0:38This time last week, Debro hopped on in his Saints jersey to rub it in my face about the Ravens.
0:44This week I decided I get to wear the Ravens Chubbies shirt.
0:47Shouts to Chubbies for sending us these a couple years ago.
0:50I get to rock the Ravens because what an ending in Rio.
0:54Less fun times for Erickson with the Patriots. We'll be talking about that on the show.
0:58Not really going to talk about the Ravens much.
1:01And less fun times for Debro as well in the Raiders-Saints games.
1:04I am classy though, so we're not going to dive too deep into that.
1:08You don't have to talk about anything because the Cowboys gifted that game to you too.
1:13So, you know. Let's go ahead and jump in here.
1:16We're going to start off, as I think we probably will be doing most weeks on the show, with sort of an
1:22injury roundup that seems to be what most of the news and notes are going to be this season.
1:28Just another week of some of our favorite fantasy players getting absolutely hammered by injury.
1:32I'm just going to read through the whole list of them right here and then we can kind of pick and choose
1:38which ones we want to talk about. So, the ones I have written down and feel free to add to this list guys if I missed anything.
1:46Terrence Ferguson hurt his ankle in the Sunday night game.
1:49That was a bummer. It looked like he was going to have a big game.
1:53Travis A-Chan pulls up with a hamstring. That was a bummer.
1:56The other Achane, Devon Achane, obviously the biggest injury of the week in terms of fantasy.
2:01His knee and I had written in the sheet last night.
2:04Looks bad. They're pretty pessimistic. We got that news this morning.
2:07It is a torn ACL. He is out for the season.
2:10That is just brutal for what is already a very bad Miami team.
2:14Justin Jefferson hurt his ankle. KOC said he got close to returning in the game a couple of times, but he also was ruled out during the game.
2:22So, not sure what to make of that. Baker Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand.
2:27He's going to miss some time. Mike Evans dealing with a rib slash oblique injury according to the team.
2:32Mark Andrews had a hand injury. He did return to the game, but that late touchdown did go to Matthew Hibner.
2:39Shouts to Debro, not to Mark Andrews. So, I'm not sure if the hand injury was still limiting him even though he did return to the game.
2:46Jalen Coker, quad injury, quote, does not think it is too serious.
2:50And Breece Hall, also a quad injury. Debro, where do you want to start with these?
2:54I'll also add, we don't know what it is at the time of recording of this, but Bucky Irving also did have an injury.
3:01He had like an ice pack on his back or a wrap on him or who knows, but he missed most of
3:08the fourth quarter of last week's game. But, oh man, I'll start with the top of this one Terrence Ferguson.
3:13Seeing him go out and try to gimp through the rest of that game was tough, but also watching Tyler Higby get
3:20all that production and knowing that Terrence Ferguson would have crushed if he would have been healthy was very painful to watch.
3:26But for a Rams team that, dude, when are they going to get Puka back?
3:30We, it feels like optimism shrouded in who the heck knows.
3:33Like, is it hip? Is it a groin? Is it a sports hernia?
3:37Who knows? But this is all we kind of like, we're all talking about when the Rams decided to draft a quarterback
3:43in the draft and we're like, well, this team is very top heavy.
3:47Probably use another skill player. And it's like, well, Puka's hurt.
3:50Terrence Ferguson's hurt. Probably not great. That's not good.
3:53But, uh, also go, I'll go down the Saints well here real fast.
3:57Dude, one of the reasons why they couldn't close out that game is they don't have an ability to run the freaking ball right now.
4:04New Orleans doesn't have it. And Travis A-Chan pulling up with a hammy, that was not fun to see in real time.
4:10Like, breaking off a run, getting to the outside, turning on the accelerator and then just grabs the back of his leg
4:16and has to go out of bounds. Kamara can't be that guy.
4:20Kendra Miller is definitely not that guy. I mean, they're going to have to live and die by Tyler Shuck's arm until some point in the future.
4:28Like, they do not have the ability to run the ball right now.
4:31So many hamstring injuries this season, too. Like, is that just me or are there actually more this year?
4:37It feels like Niko, Zay, Travis A-Chan. It just feels like a very prolific injury right now.
4:42Kind of like maybe it's a better idea to get players to actually ramp up and play in the preseason that the
4:48NFL, the pendulum has swung too far about like, we don't want anybody to get hurt.
4:53Everybody can't get hurt. And yet, everybody's getting hurt.
4:55But instead of more injuries in training camp and preseason, they're just waiting until the actual regular season to when all the
5:02games freaking matter because players are not fully ramped up and they're not ready to take hits and play at 100 miles an hour for an entire game.
5:10Like, I don't want to go like old school boomer grandpa walk 15 miles in the snow and stuff.
5:15But like there, I think there's something to be said for the NFL needs to reverse course and we need to get
5:21back to having actual starters play in the preseason and the preseason being what it's supposed to be about getting guys ready for the NFL season.
5:29Because I don't care if you're walking through your kitchen at 2 a.m.
5:33and you slip on the freaking floor or you're playing in a practice.
5:36If injuries are going to happen, they're going to find you regardless.
5:40So, I mean, am I crazy, guys? I think that the teams just aren't stretching enough.
5:44I think they're skipping. They're skipping stretching. Wait, we need more yoga?
5:48We need more Pilates in the weight rooms? They're going right into the boardroom, offensive meeting, defensive meetings.
5:53They're not stretching enough, clearly, because that's the number one way to prevent hamstring injuries coming from an expert.
5:58I don't know if you recall this, Erickson. We taped a show the day you turned 30.
6:03And I told you my advice to you as someone older than you is start stretching every day.
6:08It was the first thing I said to you when you turned 30.
6:12So, yeah, I worm knows he's ripped and torn a few things in recent memory.
6:16So, you know, yes. Yeah, that is something we don't need to get into.
6:20No, but Erickson, all these injuries here that I just listed, like, obviously Ferguson is a bummer just because with Puka out, there was pretty high expectations.
6:28And you see how that game could have gone differently if he was healthy, both in terms of, you know, fantasy output and also just for the Rams.
6:36Any of these other standouts, you know, some big names on here, right?
6:40Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield, like another quarterback injury.
6:43We've had a few of those this season already.
6:45Obviously, A-chan, there's not really, you know, Devon A-chan.
6:48There's not much to take away other than that's brutal and it sucks.
6:52But what do you take away from this latest round of injuries?
6:55I mean, how many more guys can go down at this point every single week?
7:00Don't tempt fate, by the way. It's a CVS receipt list of injuries across all of the positions.
7:05And it's not even offensive side. It's also defensive side.
7:08You're seeing guys go down, offensive tackles, offensive linemen.
7:10It is just absolutely brutal. And it just goes back to a point.
7:14I think I mentioned on one of the tailgate shows last week where two healthiest teams last year were the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
7:22And it wasn't a coincidence that those teams both happened to be in the Super Bowl last year.
7:27So we'll talk about my Patriots a little bit later.
7:30But I think the two biggest injuries for me, just looking a wide scope, Baker Mayfield going down with his thumb injury.
7:36I think the Buccaneers are like, I mean, they were already screwed.
7:39They were already like this ship is, the ship is overflowing with water here.
7:43And we're going down and now the ship is underwater fully.
7:47I don't think they recovered from this. I think Todd Bowles is dead man walking.
7:51And I don't know if like not having Baker is like supposed to help him in terms of how they view him.
7:57But the fact that they're now, I think, 0-12 against the spread in their last 12 games, they've had expectations to win
8:04and be an above average team based on their personnel.
8:06And now they're going to be starting Jalen Daniels, undrafted rookie free agent.
8:10Like, look, he earned the job as the back quarterback beat out Jake Browning.
8:14Is that saying much? I don't know because Jake Browning is really bad.
8:18But this is just, this is a really bad spot, especially when Todd Bowles as a defensive minded head coach.
8:24Now it's almost like there's going to be more responsibility on his plate because, well, now you know you don't have a
8:30good offense, potentially with a backup quarterback and a rookie backup quarterback.
8:33The defense has to win out. And if the defense continues to struggle and not play well for Tampa Bay, Todd Bowles is screwed.
8:40So that's something that I'm looking at from the Buck side.
8:43And then with A-Chan, it's people are going to be throwing themselves over to get Ollie Gordon.
8:48We'll see how healthy Jalen Wright is because up until last week, Jalen Wright was actually the backup in Miami.
8:54But then he got hurt and Ollie Gordon stepped in and obviously had the big massive workload because Jalen Wright was inactive.
9:00Just be careful because throwing yourself all your fab for a running back on a team that is actively tanking, that how
9:07are they going to score points against the Brian Flores defense in week four?
9:11Just, just be careful. Even if it looks like he's going to get volume, obviously coming off a good game against Kansas City Chiefs.
9:18That does concern me with being too aggressive on a player like Ollie Gordon, where Devon H.M.
9:23was the best player on the Dolphins. And now he's not even there anymore.
9:27So that to me is a major shift in injury.
9:29And it really sucks for a player like H.M.
9:32because you could see how he would project in this team in 2027, 2028, as a integral part of a young quarterback
9:38taking over under center for Miami in these future years.
9:41It looks like Miami's going to have a top draft pick.
9:44And now Malik Willis basically has like no shot.
9:47Like he's going to be a bridge quarterback next year when the Dolphins draft somebody really, really high.
9:52So, yeah. Malik Willis, by the way, looked pretty good, considering he's throwing to a cast of characters and no-name guys.
9:58He looked pretty decent last week. I'll just throw that out there.
10:02But one last point. Who outside of Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are they throwing the ball to in 49ers land?
10:08Who? Oh, it's going to be Brandy Cook, son.
10:10Who? I mean, dude. The stunt station's just gobbling up layers, bro.
10:14It's insane. It is remarkable to watch, honestly. By the way, just so we didn't really hit on it.
10:19You know, Braylon Allen, if he's available, like definitely worth a pickup, obviously, with Brees Hall quad stuff, I would say.
10:25Not sure how many leagues he's available in, but just to mention that one as well.
10:30Because it's not for the full season like A-Chan, but I'd rather pick up Braylon Allen than Olly Gordon, even though A-Chan's out for the full season.
10:37I had a good friend of mine text me during the games yesterday, and he was like, tell me why I shouldn't
10:44spend all $190 of my remaining fab budget on Olly Gordon.
10:47I was like, because he's not that good, and this team is not going to score a touchdown.
10:52Because that's going to be a committee. I absolutely agree.
10:55I've been getting some more questions to that, too.
10:58So I think that that's good that we're talking about that, because I don't think that this is a locked and loaded.
11:04Again, this team is horrible. He's not going to be the clear-cut number one.
11:08I think it's going to be a committee. And this team is bad.
11:12They're not going to score a lot of points.
11:14And, like, Gordon's fine. Jalen Bryant's a great player.
11:17How good has A-Chan been throughout the first two weeks of the season when he has been the full-blown workers?
11:23And he is so much better than Olly Gordon is in as a rusher, as a receiver, like across the board.
11:29And we've seen Olly Gordon before get in the doghouse for Jeff Hathaway.
11:32And they had to go to him last week because they didn't have Jalen Wright in his option.
11:38Now, again, I don't know the extent of Jalen Wright's injury.
11:41I think it's a foot and stinger. So we'll see.
11:44It's TBD. But they're probably going to add another running back to the fold.
11:48And, yeah, just don't—he's not 100% empty-the-clip type of player.
11:50At least in my opinion. It seems like you guys agree.
11:54I fully agree because I don't think Olly Gordon's any good.
11:57Like, if you go back all the way to last year, 1.78 yards after contact per attempt, an 8% missed tackle rate, these are bottom-of-the-barrel metrics.
12:04No. Jalen Wright's better than him, hands down. One more just quick injury-related thing I wanted to mention.
12:09Zay Flowers played in this game. All three of us on shows throughout the week talked about how we did not think this was going to happen.
12:17And we thought it was a huge mistake with the field conditions.
12:21We thought it was a huge mistake just to rush him back in general.
12:25He wasn't practicing for most of the week up until Friday.
12:28He played, and he looked really good in limited snaps.
12:31He made the big play at, you know, the penultimate catch to set up the Tyler Lube field goal with seven seconds left in the game.
12:38And Debro, I saw this stat this morning. I wanted to sort of test—I guess you could just test both of you.
12:44I don't know why I said Debro there. Most yards per route run this season.
12:49And obviously it's a smaller sample size for him than the other guys because he has missed about half the season in
12:55terms of games played and, you know, times played.
12:58But this is still minimum 25 routes run. This isn't just everybody, so at least 25 routes run.
13:03And most yards per route run this season. What do you think Zay Flowers is at number-wise, and where do you think he's ranked?
13:10He's top five. I know he's behind Jack Spitz the Jiglet because that guy's averaging like seven yards per route run.
13:16I'll tell you, JSN's number is 4.6. So crazy.
13:18He's— Oh, he actually might be higher than that then because he runs so much less routes.
13:23Oh, that's true. He's only played one and a half games.
13:26Really less than one and a half because he wasn't a full-time player yesterday.
13:30Oh, yeah. No, I was just pulling up a— But that helps his, like, per route.
13:35Yeah. I mean, like, so he— Again, this is his minimum 25 routes run.
13:39He ran 14 and 22 routes yesterday. He played only less than 33% of the snaps.
13:44So he was literally out there for 67% of their passing plays.
13:47And when he was out there, they used him.
13:50He's got over 200 yards probably on, like, 30 routes run.
13:53He probably got, like, 7— What's that? Like, 6.0 yards per route run if I were to just, like— Then he's probably first.
13:59So this is per NFL researcher. So the top two through eight are in the range of 3.4 to 4.6.
14:05So JSN is number two at 4.6 yards per route run.
14:08Say Flowers is over nine. Yeah. He is— He's good.
14:11He's unbelievably efficient right now. And this is with being limited and not practicing, coming back from the hamstring and all that stuff.
14:18It is unbelievable how good he has been this season when he's on the field.
14:22And it is unbelievable how wrong I was about him in fantasy dress.
14:26I was fading him for sure. And you guys are like— I wanted to throw that stat out there.
14:31Not really to celebrate the Ravens, but to celebrate you two for being all over Flowers this summer.
14:36We're like an orchestra warming up here, Erickson. That's my tone.
14:40That Mark Andrews bet, did we ever set the terms?
14:42No. Oh, no. So I was talking about this with Worm yesterday on the Betting Pro Show.
14:47And every time I saw an explosive play by a tight end with an eight on their jersey, my first initial reaction is like, is that Mark Andrews?
14:55And then I'm like, wait, no, that guy has way too much eggs.
14:59That's Himner. That's Himner high, baby! No, actually, as I know, you mean Matthew Himner.
15:03Yes. Oh, he is definitely Himner. Hang on, guys.
15:06We're going to change up what we're talking about on the show live because we have some breaking news.
15:11The Vikings are trading J.J. McCarthy to the Giants.
15:14To the Giants? Oh, let's go. I'm here. Finally happened.
15:17For a 2027 fifth round pick. Oh, I'm so here for this.
15:20Wow. I'm so here for this. Yeah, this literally just dropped one minute ago on Twitter.
15:25Dude, Harbaugh gave him the vote of silence. To give credit, the first tweet I see is from Ian Rappaport, but obviously
15:31like Pellicero, Schefter, they're all tweeting it too. Yeah.
15:34So Harbaugh, obviously some familiarity with McCarthy through his brother at Michigan, taking a swing with no Jackson Dart for the rest
15:40of the season and a fresh start here for McCarthy.
15:43This is pretty big. You know, Debra, you were the J.J.
15:46McCarthy guy. I am. Obviously during the draft. So you still are, I was going to ask.
15:51Okay. Yeah. Dude, the thing about all of the narrative street stuff with J.J.
15:55McCarthy is I'm not telling anybody that he has been fantastic, but the per dropback metrics, if you were to compare J.J.
16:01McCarthy, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix, they are not very different at all.
16:05But the narratives around all those players and I'll even throw in the Drake May of all of this for this season
16:11to where it's like, we are so quick to crown and cannibalize quarterbacks when they are so young in their NFL careers as they are good.
16:19They are horrible. They're amazing. They're terrible. And everything in between.
16:22I just do not think that J.J. McCarthy has been given a fair shake in Minnesota.
16:27And I don't think he was given one this year.
16:30I thought the whole like him versus Kyler training camp battle was a bunch of BS.
16:34It was never a battle. J.J. was out playing him in training camp.
16:38And then the one they were coming off their best practice where J.J.
16:42was still playing better than him. And then they just rush and they named Kyler the starting quarterback.
16:47And everybody's like, oh, Kyler. Oh, yeah. Because y'all are really, uh, y'all happy about how Kyler plays in Minnesota, huh?
16:53Still happy about that after last week? Hmm? Hmm?
16:55Not so much, huh? Okay. He's not going to have the rest.
16:59He's not going to have the rest. He gets the Dolphins this week, so he's going to look good.
17:04Like, that's 100% guaranteed. Erickson, what's your reaction to seeing this trade?
17:08I mean, we talked about this, D-Bro and I and Fitz, about the relationship between Kevin O'Connell and J.J.
17:13McCarthy and how there was just like this disconnect between that head coach and player and that this was never going to end well with those two.
17:21And how things unraveled last year. And the fact that they won a lot of games with J.J.
17:26McCarthy down the stretch. I think the Vikings right now, people forget, they're on, I believe, like an eight or nine game
17:32win streak dating back to last season. The Vikings are 3-0, right?
17:36And like, again, it's really weird because of the way that they've been able to do it.
17:41Obviously, the defense has played a really big role with Brian Flores just like being an absolute madman with how he's blitzing
17:47the crap out of every offense that he is facing.
17:50But to the McCarthy standpoint, I agree with D-Bro where, hey, man, this guy just needs a new setting, right?
17:56It wasn't going to work in Minnesota. It just wasn't seeing eye to eye with the head coach.
18:01And a fresh start for him makes a lot of sense.
18:04We will see how things gel with him when it comes to this offense with Greg Roman, with Matt Nagy calling plays.
18:10So far, this James Winston version of this offense really has not been what the Jackson Dart offense was in week one.
18:17And D-Bro, correct me if I'm wrong. I think at least having McCarthy allows them to do what they did with Jackson Dart originally to start the year.
18:25With James Winston, it seems like, no, we just kind of have him as our game manager.
18:30They're not unleashing James Winston. And maybe we would have got a different result if there wasn't a game being played in
18:36the rain, but still like pretty conservative approach in both games where you're just feeding camp scat.
18:41I mean, Najee Harris had nine carries in the game.
18:44When Najee Harris has more opportunities than guys like Malik Neighbors and Isaiah Likely, I think that's pretty telling of how you
18:50believe in your quarterback at that time. So Winston is there to kind of just hold the clipboard, be the backup.
18:56And once McCarthy is good to go and they feel confident that he understands the offense to an extent, we're going to
19:02see him starting these games and give the Giants a potential look at a young quarterback that, hey, if he plays well, they could trade him.
19:10They could have a long-term backup. I think Worm, you may have mentioned this where just given the fact that Dart has
19:16been banged up two years into his NFL career, having a comparable backup like J.J.
19:20McCarthy, who is younger, I think makes a lot of sense, especially if there's more of an overlapping skill set between McCarthy
19:27and Dart versus James Winston, who I think to this point, we're not going to see the fun James Winston.
19:32I don't know if that guy is going to be walking through the room anymore, especially with the way that it seems
19:39like they've kind of nuked that out of him and he's not going to be this wild man.
19:44So from a fantasy perspective, I think that McCarthy is going to be an upgrade for the receivers, but it definitely does
19:50come with a scary floor because we get a bad version of McCarthy like we saw last year with Jefferson.
19:56Like that's really concerning for players like Malik neighbors and Isaiah likely.
19:59So time only time will tell. Obviously, he's got to get the offense.
20:03He's got to understand it. But I think a good move from the Giants to acquire someone like McCarthy, especially for like
20:10fifth round pick, like anytime you can buy quarterbacks, but the first round draft capital for this cheap, I think it's just to put numbers to narrative here.
20:18Just comparing this and this isn't like I'm just going to throw the numbers out there.
20:22Compare the narrative to the numbers. JJ McCarthy versus Caleb Williams last year.
20:26Sixty eight point seven percent catchable throw rate. Sixty nine point four percent off target rate.
20:30Twenty one point four percent. Eighteen point one percent turnover worthy throw rate.
20:34Three point seven percent, three percent. Although you look at the chasm, one was the Madden cover boy and one is being discarded.
20:41I think I think to having the belief by your head coach, which was not the case with Kevin McCarthy because Jim Harbaugh obviously talked to John Harbaugh.
20:49Oh, yeah, of course. And about like, hey, dude, why do you need to go get this guy?
20:54And I think they're going to put JJ McCarthy in a much better situation to succeed.
20:59So as I'm kind of talking about thinking about this, like I'm kind of excited.
21:03Maybe that's not the right word, but I'm looking forward to seeing what this giant's office could look like because it looks so good in week one.
21:11And obviously, Dart and McCarthy. Dart was ahead of where McCarthy was.
21:14I think that we should be optimistic here about.
21:17I was going to ask you guys if you had to set a line for over under on starts this season, where
21:23would you set that number for him? Like, do you think this is going to be his job as soon as he
21:29gets a couple weeks to get up to speed?
21:32Or do you think it's? Yes. I think he probably starts week five.
21:36Yeah. He doesn't start this week. I think he starts week five.
21:39Give him one week with the offense and just I mean, what are the Giants have to lose?
21:44Right. It's like like playing Jameis is just you're not.
21:47You're not playing where. Yeah. Yeah. So who are they playing this?
21:51I have it up here. They're facing Arizona and then at Washington are the next two games.
21:55Then New Orleans, then at Houston and then a bye week in week eight.
21:59Those are the next five weeks. Hopefully they don't start him against Houston as his first.
22:04No, no, no. I mean, he gets Arizona, the commanders and the Saints.
22:08I mean, I'm seeing the Cardinals. I'm like, oh, let's give him a condensed playbook and let's go this week.
22:14I mean, it would be pretty crazy. No, I'm being I'm being facetious.
22:17But like, no, like seriously, like I think he'll be starting.
22:20But I mean, a ramp up period versus the commanders and the Saints defense.
22:24I mean, yes, please. Because then he gets the the Texans and the Eagles.
22:28He destroyed the commanders last year. I think he's starting.
22:31Oh, yeah. That's my guess. Now that I'm looking at the schedule, I would bet he starts in week five would be.
22:38Is that a home game? No, it's in Washington.
22:40It's the commanders or on the road. OK. And then it's home for the Saints the week after.
22:45So, yeah. Yeah. No, I think that he's up.
22:48So, yeah, I would think it's a week. I think unless Jameis has a huge game in week four, I think McCarthy start in week five.
22:55Yeah. Yeah. I think they're just putting the guardrails on Jameis.
22:59And then maybe that's because he just doesn't have that that thing anymore where it's like he's just back up and he's
23:05happened to be in a backup quarterback. And he just he hasn't looked like the same guy that was fun for fantasy purposes.
23:12I think Jameis has has one foot in like the broadcast booth.
23:15You know what I mean? I would. I would also agree with that.
23:19I think that's I think I think it's a large part of it is he's he's doing all of like the press conferences and the offseason.
23:26Oh, yeah. Yeah. He's awesome. So it's like he's like, yep, I'm just holding the clip for this year.
23:32Like collecting the paycheck. I'm going to win. Oh, no, I have to play.
23:36All right. Let's move on to what we learned this week.
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24:01Erickson, let's start off with you. What was your big conclusion?
24:04Take away what you learned this week? The Troy lines are going to win the NFC North and Jameer Gibbs is going to score 30 touchdowns this year.
24:12He right now has six touchdowns through three games.
24:14So he's already pacing for over 30 touchdowns. And he has seen career highs across the board in terms of how much
24:21he's being used in this offense historically based on what we've seen before in the past.
24:25So according to next gen stats, Gibbs played over 70% of the offensive snaps in every game this year, averaging career high, 75% snap share, 55% touch rate.
24:33So on more than half the plays that he's in, he's touching the football.
24:37So lines are not holding back whatsoever. They know that their entire offense runs first and foremost through Jameer Gibbs.
24:43And then you have all the other pieces. The defense is so clearly a work in progress.
24:48However, the thing that I'm optimistic about is there will be getting some guys back.
24:52Like the fact that their safeties got hurt last year and are still hurt.
24:56Obviously it's why we've been talking about targeting the lines defense in fantasy and betting because they don't have those guys right
25:03now, but Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch will eventually will come back.
25:06Now, what will they look like when they come back from these injuries?
25:10Only time will tell, but it can't be any worse than what the line secondary is right now.
25:15We're getting absolutely eviscerated. And there's also a chance that they trade for Joey Porter Jr.
25:20So there's still outs for this lines defense to improve down the stretch.
25:23And something that we talked about all on the betting shows, they have the easiest schedule in the NFL.
25:29Like every single match, if you look at Jameer Gibbs, oh yeah, he's probably going to score three touchdowns here, three touchdowns here, three touchdowns here.
25:36Like every week, it's just an absolute layup. And I really look at them in the NFC North, Green Bay.
25:42They can't win without Micah Parsons, essentially. And their offensive line is in shambles.
25:46We already saw the Bears lose their starting quarterback.
25:49We'll see when Caleb Williams comes back. But their defense is buns slash cheeks.
25:53And then you have the Minnesota Vikings who have the best defense by far in that division with Brian Flores.
25:58But the offense is still very much a work in progress.
26:02Kyler can't play like he played against Tampa Bay in future weeks if this team wants to be a legitimate contender.
26:08And right now, I just have so much confidence in how good the Detroit Lions offense is.
26:12And that the fact that their defense, I think, will improve as the season progresses.
26:17Right now, their odds to win the division are similar to what they were in the offseason, where you're still getting plus
26:23money for them to win the division. And I know that we always talk about who's going from worst to first.
26:29I mean, the Saints, I still like is that pick.
26:32But falling one and two does not make me feel great.
26:35They need to win this week against the Atlanta Falcons to kind of reassert themselves atop that division.
26:40Obviously, Tampa Bay is not going to win that division.
26:43That's not happening. But the Lions are that other team where they came in last and they should be favorites to win.
26:50They are favorites. And I think that's ultimately going to happen just based on the optics of their schedule, the fact that their offense is really, really good.
26:58I think their defense can improve. So that's one of my big takeaways.
27:01They can win shootouts, especially at home. So yeah, I like the Lions.
27:05Calling the Packers defense both buns and cheeks. You couldn't stop at buns.
27:09You had to also throw cheeks out there. That's devastating.
27:12They're devastating right now. Yeah, it's funny. I kind of had the feeling by the time we got to August, like every
27:18once in a while in fantasy, you have those seasons where it really only matters if you had the one correct player,
27:24like 06, LaDainian Tomlinson, you know, some of these Christian McCaffrey years.
27:28All that really mattered for winning your championship was did you have that guy in that year?
27:33And by the time I got to August, I kind of started to feel like this might be Gibbs.
27:38Just everything you laid out, Eric, it's an easy schedule, going to get so much workload with no David Montgomery.
27:44He's also just very talented. He's averaging like a touchdown per game in his career even before this season.
27:49And now that's even more so. Like I am fully on board with this.
27:53It's kind of crazy, though, to think about him as like the most important, you know, running back, the most important player
28:00you can have in fantasy because Kenneth Walker has also been incredible.
28:03Derrick Henry has six touchdowns also. Christian McCaffrey is healthy.
28:06Bijan has been amazing, especially now that they have the quarterback upgrade.
28:09So it's like there are five different running backs that at any given week, it would not shock me if they had
28:1635 fantasy points in their game, let alone like Jonathan Taylor, who's obviously still very good, even though he's coming off a
28:22bad game and some of these other names. So, yeah, it is really interesting to look at the position.
28:27And Gibbs does stand alone. And obviously he was a consensus 101 in drafts for a reason.
28:32And yet these other names, like at least a handful of them, are still really excellent as well.
28:37Debra, what do you think about this prediction of 30 touchdowns for Gibbs this season?
28:42Obviously it's bold from Erickson, but is that on the table in your opinion?
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29:30The new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61.
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29:55Big time trades that shake up the NFL. A.J.
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31:19If you're making, I haven't pulled this up right now, but I'm very curious what his odds are.
31:25I'm going to go look at this in real time.
31:27What are his odds for offensive player of the year?
31:30Because I think he definitely could take that down, and I think the 30 touchdowns can definitively happen because offense, him running
31:37through the offense, it looks like he's the favorite.
31:39So I was going to say I would guess he's the favorite because I have the MVP odds up for a later
31:46discussion we're going to have, and he is the highest-ranked non-quarterback in the list.
31:50Obviously, he's way lower than a bunch of quarterbacks.
31:52He's not going to win MVP, but I say that to say the highest-rated non-quarterback usually is a pretty good favorite to
31:58then win their respective side of the ball award.
32:01And he is right – he has lower odds than JSN, who's the closest competition in terms of that.
32:07So, yeah, I'm not surprised to hear that he's a favorite for offensive player of the year.
32:11He's awesome. The record is 31 touchdowns, I think.
32:14LaDaini Tomlinson, he had 20 – I believe it's 28 rushing and three receiving.
32:18So if he gets 30, I mean, he is potentially going to be setting a record here if he gets a little bit more there.
32:25And it feels on the table. I mean, again, that he is their entire offense, and he's so good, and they have an easy schedule.
32:32It just was – I think it's all adding up, Erickson.
32:36So I think it's a good conclusion here. Yep.
32:38Let's go to Debro. You, you know, speaking of really good running backs, also want to talk about an elite guy.
32:44One of the names I just mentioned at the top of the running back rankings right now.
32:49Kenneth Walker, baby. Kenneth Walker has transformed the Kansas City offense.
32:52All of the yesteryear stuff about Andy Reid running backs and we want to invest in this offense and that being the
32:59engine of the offense, like, we're back. Like, Mahomes is – over the last two weeks, Patrick Mahomes has played the best
33:05football I have seen him play in the last three to four years.
33:09Basically, in the post-Tyreek Hill era, this is the best Patrick Mahomes has looked since Tyreek Hill left town.
33:14And I think we need to firmly point the spotlight on Kenneth Walker.
33:18What he's been able to do to give this offense both the ability to run the ball, create explosives on the ground,
33:24and as a pass catcher, and what he's offering on that side of the ball for a player that, again, guys, I'm
33:30old enough to remember when Kenneth Walker – we didn't know if he could catch a football.
33:35I mean, in prospect land, I mean, we weren't even sure if he actually had hands.
33:40And now he's one of the best receiving running backs in football.
33:43He's transformed the Kansas City Chiefs offense. I would venture to say, are the Chiefs back?
33:48Because they definitely went somewhere over the last few years, and it wasn't a good place.
33:52And then I think a lot of that – or all of that can be laid at the feet of Kenneth Walker.
33:59I don't think you need to ask, are they back?
34:02I think they clearly are. And it's both that Walker has transformed the offense and also that Mahomes looks really good.
34:08But Walker being there is certainly a factor in Mahomes looking so good and taking attention away and giving explosives back to this offense and all that stuff.
34:16I think they look super back, Erickson. And to Debro's point, Walker is reason 1A for that.
34:21Do you guys know how many missed tackles he has this season?
34:24Some absurd – I mean, it was an absurd number just after week one.
34:28He had 16 in one game in week two or week one.
34:32It was 16 in one game. He has 38 missed tackles in three games.
34:36He's saying how good he has been and how no defense can stop this guy.
34:40So it's just a matter of how long does he hold up.
34:43I'm in the camp that the fact that he does force so many missed tackles, I think it's actually good for his
34:50longevity because he's not taking as many hits. Because he's avoiding hits.
34:53He's avoiding tackles. And I think Chiefs will be smart with him as the season progresses when they can put a little
34:59bit more on Mahomes' plate in terms of just more dropbacks, more of a passing game when the receivers are kind of getting into a bigger groove.
35:07And the fact that they have Emmitt Johnson too.
35:10So – and that's not to say that it's going to hurt Walker because, if anything, he's shown you that, yeah, he
35:16can handle a massive workload because he hasn't done it throughout his entire NFL career because he just hasn't been available for it.
35:23But like Gibbs, I think Walker is just having that special season where you see a running back leave one team, be
35:29the perfect fit in a new team, and that year is just his special year.
35:33Now, we can talk about Faden Ken Walker in 2027 when he has 5 billion touches this year.
35:38Sure, that's a conversation we're going to have next year.
35:41But for this year, it's a special Ken Walker season, and it's very reminiscent of when Saquon Barkley went to the Eagles.
35:48It was the perfect fit. That's a good job.
35:50Away from the Giants. When Christian McCaffrey went to the 49ers, oh my God, it's the perfect fit in the Shanahan offense.
35:57And there was always concerns because this guy's been hurt in the past.
36:00But the planets are just aligning for Ken Walker, and it's why I'm really happy that I moved him up my rankings in fantasy.
36:07I think I finished him with RB4 because I was like, no, man, like this is just, in hindsight, we're going to
36:13look back at this and be like, dude, it was so obvious this guy was going to freaking smash, and through three weeks, that's literally all he's done.
36:22So, yeah, man, it's the Chiefs are so, I mean, I was wrong about the Chiefs because I thought this was going
36:28to be kind of like a rebuild year, which was obviously wrong.
36:31I know we talked about that last week too and how we still like Super Bowl odds on the Kansas City Chiefs
36:38because they're clearly going to be in it then in Buffalo right now, top of the AFC along with Baltimore.
36:43To your point too, Erickson, they've already like, I mean, he only got, just so everybody realizes in week three, he only got 20 touches.
36:51So it wasn't a 30-touch workload and all that kind of stuff.
36:54Like, I know it's only 20, but to your point, I do think they're smart with him as we move through the season.
37:01Like, Mahomes gets healthier. They turn back into more of a passing team.
37:04Like, Kenneth Walker's getting like 15 carries and like four or five catches on a weekly basis.
37:09So he's getting to that 20-touch mark, but we're splitting up how we're doing this and part of this is in space and stuff.
37:16Yeah, like, I think he holds up, man. They also have an early bye week too.
37:21Yep, yep. So it's like they can like load them up with us to start the year knowing that, hey, like, we're off in week five.
37:28Yeah, it's a good call, week five. So we can kind of readjust things.
37:32And that's probably when you'll start to see the bigger bump for Emmitt Johnson.
37:36Coming out of the, we always see that from a lot of rookies is that post-bye rookie bump in terms of usage.
37:43So, but to Walker's, Walker is so efficient that, yeah, he can still be really productive because he's ripping off big plays
37:49and he has all the red zone opportunities in this offense, which was obviously the biggest thing holding him back.
37:55And I know I talked about this with the worm on the betting show, but this week, he's facing his old offensive
38:01coordinator, Clint Kubiak, who never gave him the ball in the red zone.
38:05There will be, tell me there will not be petty.
38:07Like Kenneth Walker doesn't score three touchdowns just to, like Andy Reid, just to rub it in the, dude.
38:13Dude, this is the revenge game week, by the way.
38:16We talked about this last night. Alt lines on Kenneth Walker touchdowns.
38:19What's three plus? Give me those odds. Kenneth Walker against Clint Kubiak, Brian Flores against the Dolphins, Derrick Henry against the Titans for the first time.
38:27There's a lot of, a lot of those going on.
38:30Man. Yeah, Erickson, I love that comp too. Like, it was so obvious this was going to work.
38:35Like Saquon behind the Eagles, O-Lide, CMC and Jen.
38:37Derrick Henry going to the Ravens and being in the same bag as Lamar.
38:41Like we said, it's like, man, it's just obviously going to work.
38:45It was so obvious. Like that's what I got here.
38:48By the way, just a quick note to really highlight Chibir Gibbs again.
38:51Kenneth Walker is averaging 24.6 half PPR points per game so far through three weeks.
38:56He is closer to Jonathan Taylor. And that's second, by the way.
38:59He's closer to Jonathan Taylor at number five in the league than he is to Gibbs at number one.
39:05Walker's been unreal. And he's still not even that close to number one compared to what Gibbs is doing.
39:10Oh, Gibbs is over 30. I think he's like at 32.
39:13He's at 29.8. So he's just... PPR, I was looking at PPR.
39:17PPR, he is over 30. That's half PPR, yes.
39:19Yeah. That's almost 30. PPR, he's at 32.8 right now.
39:22Ludicrous. That's absolutely insane, dude. That's insane. Okay, well, my conclusion from this week, the Raiders are a legitimate playoff contender.
39:28They're not a Super Bowl contender, but they are a legitimate playoff contender.
39:32And then I have sort of a secondary one in here.
39:35Like Erickson had the division title as secondary to Gibbs getting the 30 touchdowns.
39:39Brock Bowers is going to be a consensus first-round pick in 2027 drafts.
39:43He looked so good coming back right away. First game in this offense under Clint Kubiak.
39:47First time playing with his quarterback. And coming off of the meniscus trim, and he just looked like the stud we were expecting.
39:54I think that is going to continue for most of this season.
39:57You know, we did a lot of shows with Fitz, Debro this summer where he talked about like, Brock Bowers are going
40:04to be the defining fantasy player of the season.
40:06That was before the injury. I think that's what we're getting now that he's healthy and back.
40:11And I just think it's really going to work.
40:14We know Clint Kubiak is willing to spam the ball to his best player if they, that's clearly the best player, a la JSN last year.
40:21And the Raiders are good, man. Like they've really improved the offensive line from where they were a year ago.
40:27Obviously there's a coaching upgrade here with Clint Kubiak, just schematically.
40:30The defense is better than I thought it was going to be.
40:34Certainly. I think they're, I was saying this last night, Eric's in there.
40:37What third in EPA? It was the tweet that I saw now, maybe a little bit of an easier, you know, stretch
40:44of opponents here to start the season. But we just sat here a week ago, guys, and talked about it.
40:49The Saints are winning the NFC South and that we think the Saints are a legit good team.
40:55And, you know, yes, they, they blew that game in some ways at the end there.
40:59But like, but the Raiders took advantage and they won, they have the six most points scored in the NFL this season.
41:06They're running, running for, I'm thinking baseball. Their point differential is, I believe fourth best in the NFL this season.
41:11Like they've had an easy run out to the season, but they have taken advantage of it and done what a good
41:18team should do against an easier schedule. Again, I'm not saying they're going to, I'm not even saying they're locked to make
41:24the playoffs, but they are legitimate playoff contenders, which is quite a turnaround coming off of the first overall pick a year ago.
41:31And this is without even seeing Mendoza yet, D bro.
41:33Max Crosby looks pretty good. Worm? Who knew? Which is not a surprise.
41:37We keep kind of bearing lead here. Max Crosby looks pretty good.
41:41We keep bringing this up every time Max Crosby has a good game.
41:44I'm going to keep bringing it up because I think Garrett DaCosta's full of it, dude.
41:49The Ravens thought he was going to be good this year.
41:52They were worried at long term. So him being good this year is irrelevant to that conversation.
41:57So we'll have to have this conversation in 2028.
42:00Yes, yes, exactly. But how good is Max Crosby now, D bro?
42:03Yeah, without me gaslighting worm here, the thing that I thought was very interesting, first of all, I'll take a map salute L on Brock Bowers.
42:10I did not think that he was going to be a full-time player.
42:14I didn't think he was going to come back.
42:17And I thought we were going to see him eased in like Tucker Craft and George Kittle.
42:22I thought he was going to have like a 60% route share because he was coming off of a week where it was limited practice, limited practice.
42:29And then he didn't practice on Friday. And I'm like, okay, well, if he's active, they're not going to ramp him up
42:36and run their freaking offense through him in the first freaking game.
42:39And yet that's what we saw. The biggest insane takeaway for me with the Brock Bowers stuff, 78% of his routes, he
42:45ran in the slot or out wide. He's not a tight end.
42:49He's a wide receiver. By the way, I don't think I actually said, 116 receiving yards, 10 receptions, 13 targets and a touchdown.
42:56And he looked freaking unstoppable. You could tell how excited Kubiak was to have him back.
43:00Yeah, he looked amazing. Yeah. The only thing I'll add with your take worm about him being a first round pick in
43:06fantasy drafts, Brock Bowers to me, not stylistically, but gives off similar fantasy vibes as Gronkowski where he misses a lot of
43:13time with injuries, but when he's on the field, he's unstoppable.
43:16So it's a matter of kind of weighing that when it comes to, because I don't know if all these injuries are, that's the thing.
43:23Like, I don't know if all these injuries are going to be behind because this happened last year too.
43:29Like he missed time. He came back, immediately smashed and then got hurt again and then didn't play the rest of the season.
43:35So that's something that is something that's in the back of my mind when it comes to Brock Bowers.
43:41Obviously a healthy Brock Bowers is more than worthy of being a first round pick as we've talked about.
43:46And I think we talked about on shows leading up to the season where it's like, dude, yeah, this guy, when he's healthy, he freaking smashes.
43:54So I was a little bit more aggressive on my rank with him because we'd saw this last year where it's like,
44:00they just threw him back out there. I know it's a different coaching staff.
44:04So obviously there could have been a different approach here, but he is just such a monster when he's on the field.
44:10So yeah, the talent is so amazing. I would say too, with Kirk Cousins currently on pace for 51 passing touchdowns, tied
44:16for second in the NFL in total touchdowns with nine passing touchdowns, three straight games with three passing touchdowns.
44:22The odds for the Raiders just to make the playoffs plus 165.
44:25I kind of like that. I'm not, again, I'm not saying it's a lock, but at those odds, I'm interested in that.
44:32So just throwing it out there. Those are consensus odds on bettingpros.com.
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45:12All right, let's get to reality check here, trying to figure out if these are legitimate conclusions or an overreaction.
45:18Erickson, start us off. Drake May. I think we need to talk about Drake May and the lack of good quarterback play anywhere in New England.
45:26It's been really, really bad to kind of capture it in statistics.
45:29So yesterday, Drake May sent a new career low in fantasy scoring for the third straight week.
45:34So it's continually getting worse and worse as the season progresses.
45:37Super next-gen stats. Among quarterbacks who've started every game so far this year, he ranks dead last in passer rating, dead last
45:43in total passing EPA, while leading the league with seven turnovers, six interceptions, and a fumble.
45:48He has scored a total of 21.6 fantasy points.
45:51He cleared that number seven of his 17 games in 2025.
45:54So that's what the stats are saying. The eye test honestly might be worse because he looks like he's either playing drunk
46:00or hungover or both because it's just a player to me that is not seeing the field whatsoever.
46:05Not seeing it clearly, not trusting his reads, and just boneheaded decision-making, especially when it comes to the red zone because the
46:12Patriots are moving the ball in between the 20s okay, but when they get into goal-to-go opportunities in the red zone, this
46:18is where Drake May is making his biggest mistakes.
46:21And the fact that yesterday in Jacksonville, he takes a snap and drops back the throw and it just slips out of his hand.
46:27And then in the post-game interview, he's talking about how his center's blood was on the ball.
46:32And that was a contributing factor to why it slipped out of his hands.
46:36So again, he wasn't saying that was solely the reason why he fumbled the ball, but clearly he needs to play significantly better.
46:43This is also concerning from a fact that he had struggled last year in the playoffs when he's facing tougher opponents.
46:49He's obviously facing tougher opponents this year because the schedule is not nearly as easy as it was to start the year.
46:55So to me now it's becoming, is he just a matchup quarterback?
46:59I think that's actually very apparent that he is a matchup-based quarterback and that they can hopefully build momentum.
47:04I do wonder what the offense would be doing if they had A.J.
47:08Brown on the field. And if this is one of the scenarios where they built so much of what this offense was going to look like with A.J.
47:16Brown as the focal point. And then when they lost him, Josh McDaniels did not have the, I don't even know the
47:22right backup plan, a plan B strategy of, okay, well if A.J.
47:26Brown goes down, which I mean, when you build your plane out of a 29-year-old wide receiver without a backup plan, like that is concerning.
47:33And you should be building offense around Drake May, not around A.J.
47:36Brown. Like as much as I love A.J. Brown and think he's a super talented player and still has plenty left in the tank, that's not smart.
47:44Like you should be building around your franchise quarterback.
47:47And I was, and I also got annoyed because listening to some sports talk radio for, I don't listen to sports talk radio in Massachusetts.
47:54Oh, don't do that. So I was driving back from somewhere and it turned it on and somebody came on and was
48:00like, they got a bench Drake May. And I immediately turned it off.
48:04I was like, all right, this is stupid. Yeah, don't listen to that.
48:08But to that point, it has been really bad.
48:10I know you guys agree. Obviously I'm on the homerism side, so I'm always trying to look at it from a glass
48:17half full type of angle, but it has been really bad and you can't have really any confidence starting Drake May in
48:23fantasy lines until he faces like the Miami Dolphins, facing the Bills this week.
48:27The Patriots have played well in Buffalo the last two years with Drake May as a massive underdog, but just what we've
48:33seen on tape the last couple of games has just been absolutely brutal for him.
48:38Offensive line's not playing well, so that's all I have to say about it.
48:42Let me read some of the names that are outscoring him in fantasy right now amongst quarterbacks.
48:46Marcus Mariota, who has only played a game and a half.
48:50Sam Darnold, who has played a game, basically one game.
48:52Drew Locke, who has not played the full season.
48:55And .2 points just behind Drake May. So he is outscoring this person, but just barely is Jackson Dart, who obviously has missed basically two full games.
49:03So it has been really, really bad. Statistically, you laid out, you know, stats there, Erickson of why it's been bad and it has looked just as bad.
49:11It's funny, I had very little Drake May in fantasy this season until the last week of drafts.
49:16And I was like getting kind of nervous that I didn't have this like quarterback that I thought was like ascending and really talented and got AJ Brown.
49:24So I took him in my final two drafts of the season.
49:27And I'm like, well, clearly I was right to not be taking him all that much here.
49:32So I've been watching him pretty closely and having him on a few different teams.
49:37And it's been tough, but I don't know, like if you, particularly the leagues I have, Drake May are all super flex leagues.
49:43If you have them in a super flex league, it's one of those, you have to keep starting him, right?
49:49Like you cannot sit him and he just, it is the worst type of player to have.
49:54It's similar to like, like Justin Jefferson last year when he was healthy and like, you just have to keep, you cannot sit some of these players.
50:02You almost just wish they would get hurt. And then, okay, well now it's easy.
50:06I'm just not going to play them. And, and may in terms of super flex leagues is in that category right now.
50:12He should not be starting super flex leagues. He's QB 31.
50:15That's not inside the top 24 yet. You, you cannot help, but do it.
50:19So yeah, it's, it's been really painful. Debra. Oh man, the whole Drake May of all of this, the exact same reasons
50:26why you drafted Drake May at the end of draft season were, were why I took Justin Herbert and a few of my final drafts.
50:33The entire off season, I was like, I don't know about this Chargers offense, man.
50:37I don't know about this Chargers offense. All right.
50:40I guess I'm going to hedge my bets here a little bit.
50:43Cause I mean, look, we're all wrong about certain things.
50:46Maybe I'm wrong here. And through three weeks, I have not been wrong.
50:50I was big time wrong about Drake May. I mean, walking into the season, as my QB two and fantasy circles and
50:56stuff, but dude, like this, this Patriots offense has looked broken.
50:59Like it's what the hell do they do? Well, man, they're, they're not throwing the ball.
51:04Well, they can't run the ball like this last week against the Jaguars, 2.9 yards per carry from Travion Henderson.
51:10Vermandre has 3.1 yards per carry. They don't have a go-to option.
51:13Like, dude, I love Mac Hollins as a story, as a real NFL player.
51:17But when you're telling me you're running your passing attack through him and he gets nine targets and he leads your team
51:23with 87 receiving yards, something is wrong. Like something is big time wrong.
51:27And yes, I think there's a very, like a very pointed AJ Brown conversation.
51:31And McDaniels building the offense through him. The other thing that I'll also counterpoint to this is they felt good enough about
51:38bringing Romeo Dobbs in to get rid of Stefan Diggs.
51:40They felt good enough to trade away Kayshawn Booty because they felt good about Kyle Williams and how he was walking out of the preseason.
51:48Kyle Williams has been a non-factor. Romeo Dobbs has not taken to this offense.
51:52And it's just, it's, it's bad all the way around.
51:55Like their offensive line is, is battered to a certain extent.
51:58They're not opening up a crap time in holes.
52:00Like may is playing like a quarterback. He's pressing.
52:03He's, he's legit pressing. Like on a per drop back basis.
52:06And the, and the thing that like, I think it's just, you can envelope all professional athletes in this, that they, they
52:12play with this Uber, like nonsensical type of confidence that I am Superman.
52:16Doesn't matter if I'm not Superman. I am Superman.
52:19I can make everything happen. I can will this.
52:21I can do it. I got it. You can look at Drake may for two seconds and see that he ain't got that like this year.
52:29I don't know if it's a culmination of how he got battered down the, down the stretch and throughout the playoffs and the Superbowl.
52:36And then opening this season immediately with the Superbowl rematch and him getting tossed back into all of those 2025, how they ended things vibes.
52:43And it's continued to just go snowball for him.
52:45Like, I hope he could turn this around, but he's playing like a guy that like has kind of lost his mojo.
52:52Do you think D bro, you mentioned the chargers more likely to turn it around Patriots offense, charges off Patriots, Patriots.
52:58Okay. I would agree with that. I give me Daniel.
53:01I give Josh McDaniel more chances and, and, and faith to turn that around than anything.
53:05Mike McDaniel is going to do on the other side of this, the country.
53:09And I know we've talked about the charger schedule being absolutely brutal.
53:13It doesn't get easier. Patriots schedule does. So I know that the cupcakes from last year, that's no longer existing.
53:18Obviously going to Buffalo is a tough spot. Buffalo's defense though.
53:22Does leave a lot to be desired. But after that, I mean, they still get to play the dolphins.
53:27They still get to play the jets. Like there's going to be soft spots where Drake, if anything, it's just build confidence, right?
53:34Like finish a game without turnovers. Like, I don't care if it's against the dolphins where he looks good.
53:39Like that's fine. Like just to do something positive.
53:42And the fact that they will get AJ Brown back at some point, what guy will they get cuff the high ankle?
53:48No idea, but I think that does matter. So I do think at least there is a light at the end of
53:54the tunnel here for Drake may in year three.
53:57So, but obviously right now it's a, here's your Drake may confidence.
54:00Building stretch. You got about a month from October 22nd to November 15th or no way.
54:05We could stretch this out to November 29th. After their bye week, they get the bears, the dolphins, the Packers, the lions, and the chargers.
54:12That's your confidence building stretch before then they play the bills, the Vikings, and the chiefs.
54:17So, yeah, I mean like, and hopefully at that point, AJ Brown is close to returning or, and he has returned.
54:23And so maybe we see a different version of Drake may like down the back half of the season.
54:28I hope so. Super bowl losers, man. We are every year.
54:31It feels like that's, I think too. Like I knew that I was down on the Patriots in terms of like their
54:38win total, in terms of like how their team success would be because of the schedule.
54:42However, I did not foresee it necessarily being accompanied by such a poor performance by Drake.
54:47No, I don't think I thought it was going to be like, his stats were going to be more like padded.
54:53Like they're going to be negative game script. He's still going to put up yards and touchdowns.
54:58And that, that's kind of was my angle on it.
55:01I knew the Patriots were going to lose a lot more games just because the schedule was significantly harder.
55:06But to this extent that may would struggle this much.
55:09We can't keep me making excuses. We got to move on to the next one, but I would, I would just sort
55:15of wrap it to say, cause this is reality check, like conclusion versus overreaction.
55:19I feel like this is like a legitimate conclusion from what we've seen.
55:23The question is, is it an overreaction for moving forward?
55:26And that is what is still. I think there will be like, like if sports talk radio in Boston area is calling
55:32for him to get benched, I think we're already at overreaction.
55:35Yeah. Cause that's, that's nonsensical. Like whoever's saying that on the radio, I turned it, I turned off the radio, dude.
55:41I was like, well, whoever's saying that on the radio needs to get taken off the radio.
55:46Cause that's just nonsense. We got to move on.
55:49Debra, what's your reality check? Oh, Houston Texans will miss the playoffs.
55:52They've started. Oh, and three, this defense looks like it has lost.
55:56It's secret sauce. Like we'll outside of will Anderson.
55:58What do you feel good about? Like Stingley Lasseter getting their butts handed to him.
56:03Like the rest of this defense doesn't look like they've got a clue right now.
56:07They have zero offense. Like between David Montgomery, Woody marks, they do not have a run game.
56:12Their offensive line is still bottom five. Nico Collins comes back.
56:15Okay, fine. You got a pulse, whatever the Nick Caley of all of this.
56:19I will continue to pound the table that he is one of the most idiotic and horrible play callers in all of the freaking NFL.
56:26And yet he still has a job guys. Like how much he's Shane Waldron in different clothes.
56:31It's horrible. Like, but I, I think the Houston Texans missed the playoffs, but worm.
56:35I know we both collectively brought up a very interesting stat.
56:39I'll let you spit that here to say that maybe I'm wrong.
56:42Since 2000, there have been two teams to start open three to then go on to make the playoffs.
56:47The 2018 Houston Texans and the 2025 Houston Texans.
56:50So if a franchise knows how to do this, it's this one.
56:53And these players did it a year ago. I think that's more of like a team morale type of thing where in
57:00the locker room, I guarantee it's like, guys, we were only through last year.
57:04We found a way to the division. So I get that from a, yeah, we can be optimistic that we've done this
57:10before, but to me, it's more reads like lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot where you were able to run
57:16as hot as you did last year because your, their defense was borderline historic last year.
57:21And if they're not historic again, then they're not going to come out as own three and they can still be really good.
57:28Like Debra talked about, but clearly they're not as good as they were last year on defense.
57:32And when they don't have Nico Collins, this team has won one game against their real quarterback without Nico Collins.
57:38And that's why you can't bet on them to win games if they don't have Nico because it's offense just craters and
57:45they can't get those explosive plays down the field.
57:47When Xavier Hutchinson is your leading receiver, you're going to lose.
57:50And the fact that they couldn't win a game against the Colts when the Colts turned the ball over three times and the Texans still lost.
57:58That just goes to show the offense is capped and they don't have a guy like Nico.
58:03So I, I, I agree. I mean, it's kind of interesting because we could be sitting here with them having a win over the bills.
58:10If Lasseter holds onto that interception and that it didn't happen.
58:13Right. But, and I'm not saying we go back and change it, but like this could be a team that's one and
58:19two with the win over this, you know, incredible offense that we've seen so far.
58:24And yet one thing doesn't go your way. And it gets, it gets late fast in, in the NFL.
58:29It gets late early. They have, there are only four teams in the NFL with the worst point differential through three weeks than Houston right now.
58:37It's the Titans, the Chargers, the Packers, and the Dolphins.
58:39It's like the worst teams in the league. And that's, that's who they're in the Patriots.
58:44Let's go. Let's go. Yeah. Erickson is just happy that, that, yes, I, I am willing to call your offensive coordinator an
58:50absolute imbecile and a buffoon whenever this is a reality.
58:53Jared Wayne and Xavier Hutchinson played more snaps than freaking Jalen all this last week.
58:57Foster Barrow played more snaps than Dalton Schultz. Make it make sense.
59:01Yeah. I was very surprised that Schultz wasn't like the focal point when, you know, this cold dude can't stop.
59:07Nick Haley says hi. Like Nick, Nick, Nick Haley says hi.
59:10It's like, you know, dude, just rip it over the middle of the field.
59:14We get all those Xavier Hutchinson targets and Jared Wayne can get four targets.
59:18You got it, right? You got it. Huh? Let's, let's get to the final reality check here.
59:23This one's for me, and I'm actually going to loop this into our final segment.
59:27Last week, we talked about just sort of updated Super Bowl odds and who belongs, who doesn't, who's too high in consensus, all that fun stuff.
59:35We're going to do the same thing this week, but for the MVP odds instead of Super Bowl.
59:40And my reality check is that Brock Purdy is going to win MVP this season.
59:44I think we have seen a narrative shift. It is, it has been gradual over the last couple of years, but it feels more pronounced this year.
59:52Maybe you guys disagree, but it feels more pronounced to me of people actually giving Brock Purdy credit in a way that
59:58previously has always exclusively gone to Kyle Shanahan. It's exclusively gone to playing with the Avengers and, you know, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle and everybody surrounding him.
60:06And for the first time, it really feels like, no, people are noticing that Brock Purdy has really been the straw that's
60:12stirring the drink so far for the Niners this season.
60:15The offense has been great. A stat that I saw on Twitter earlier today, the 49ers have scored a touchdown on 48.1% of their drives through three games.
60:23So far, it is the highest touchdown rate since 2000 for any team through three games of scoring a touchdown on that percentage of drives.
60:31And five of the next seven teams in that all-time list had that year's MVP quarterback.
60:35So when you have an offense that is this good at scoring touchdowns, A, you tend to win a lot of games
60:41and that really matters to winning MVP. It usually goes to a quarterback on a top two seed in one of the conferences.
60:48And B, we have seen it pan out that that quarterback has won MVP when the team is this level of efficient.
60:54The other, the other names, you know, the teams on that list are teams like the 2018 Chiefs, the 2007 Patriots, the
61:012019 Ravens, 2020 Packers, like 2024 Bills. Those are the sorts of names whose MVPs were scoring touchdowns at a worse rate
61:07than what the Niners have done this season. So they've been awesome.
61:10I think they're going to win a lot of games and maybe even win that division, which was not projected before the season.
61:17And Purdy just looks great. You know, he's, he's having cool plays that are not counting because somebody was just out of bounds that people are saying.
61:25He was not out of bounds. That was a catch, by the way.
61:29That was a catch. They didn't review it. I agree in the game.
61:32Yes. I, he just looks different. He looks like I'm like, I'm watching him in three years ago.
61:37I was like, Oh yeah, this is, he's a Shanahan merchant.
61:41And now I'm watching. I'm like, Purdy is an awesome quarterback.
61:44He's, he's playing like a top 10 guy on a team.
61:47That's going to win a lot of games and score a lot of points.
61:51I think he's going to win MVP. And before I talk to you guys, I'll pull up the actual odds here.
61:57Cause that's sort of the larger segment we're going to loop into.
62:00He is currently, and this is, has been updated since the games yesterday has the second shortest odds.
62:06So obviously this has gotten less favorable to bet on than it was previously.
62:10Josh Allen is plus 220 Brock Purdy. So he's plus 500.
62:13So not bad. If you think he's actually going to win, then you get into Lamar plus 600 Mahomes plus 900.
62:19So, you know, it gets further and further down, but what do you, what do you make of this one?
62:25Erickson? I think that Purdy is deserving to be up here.
62:28You look at a passer rating, number one league EPA per drop back, number one league, nine touchdowns, third, the league 10
62:34total touchdowns trail only Josh Allen, who is the aforementioned favorite to win MVP after the bills three, no start in terms of fantasy points.
62:41Only Allen has scored more fancy points than Brock Purdy, according to next gen stats.
62:45Since week 15 of last year. So I think that Brock Purdy is deserving to be up here in terms of what his passer rating has been.
62:53And the fact that we've already kind of done the conversation with him as the Shanahan merchant.
62:58This was a couple of years ago when he was, it was him in Lamar were neck and neck and MVP.
63:04And then the 49ers just got boat raced on, I think it was either Christmas or Thanksgiving.
63:09And that basically just nuked his entire MVP run because they got destroyed by the Ravens and Lamar Jackson kind of took
63:15the MVP award and ran away with it. So I think he deserves to be up here.
63:20Is he my favorite bet at five to one?
63:23Probably not. That's the thing I would layer on.
63:25I still like the long shots, like a Trevor Lawrence where, I mean, Trevor Lawrence, I know we didn't talk about this
63:32in the Patriots game, but the dude kneeled the ball with eight minutes left in the, like, I have no, and then
63:38he's like, after he's like, yeah, I probably shouldn't.
63:41He was like trying to help out the basial toot and fantasy managers.
63:44He said that. Somebody in that locker room was betting a basial toot and anytime touchdown.
63:49That's all I got to say. I'm like, dude, like, so Trevor Lawrence, I mean, he's had two monster games and the
63:55one down game he's had was at Denver. So when you look at strength of schedule, Brock pretty, I mean, the 49ers
64:02haven't played, I mean, they played the hungover Rams who were sleep deprived in week one, played the dolphins joke.
64:07And then the Cardinals defense is not very good.
64:10So again, like, but he's taking advantage and he's ripping up these bad defenses.
64:14So I think that he deserves to be up there.
64:17I think he's going to be in the conversation.
64:19I won't say definitively that he's going to win the award because the 49ers might just fall apart.
64:25If they're too old around him, that's like the more guys fall and the offense continues to perform.
64:30That's just a credit to purdy. Yeah. I agree with that.
64:33I'm not even saying on here saying this is the best bet.
64:36It's just the prediction I want to make. And I do think if it's like him versus Josh Allen, for example, or
64:43Lamar, because those are the next, you know, the two that are kind of sandwiching him in the rankings of MVP odds.
64:49Like those guys have won a combined three MVPs before people like the new, the new name who hasn't won one before.
64:55And I think there is a contingent of people who cover the NFL, who have long wanted to credit Brock Purdy and
65:02have fought against this Shanahan merchant narrative. And we'll be very excited to have the opportunity to reward him with their vote.
65:08It's a very clear top five D bro in the odds.
65:11It's Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, and then the homes and burrow tide there.
65:15That's at plus 900 is my homes and burrow.
65:18Trevor Lawrence is next at plus 1400. And then next after him is Dak at plus 2000.
65:23So the odds are telling you that it's sort of a five person race.
65:27It's super early. This is going to change a ton, right?
65:30I'm not saying it's locked and loaded. It's going to be one of those five, but there is a little bit of
65:36a gap there between the top five and everybody else.
65:39It's kind of like somebody came on this show in June and told people to bet the Brock Purdy odds at plus 2200.
65:46Who could that be? There's no way to tell.
65:48I don't know. We couldn't possibly go back and find it.
65:52You have to check the fee. I just, just, I don't know who could that be.
65:56So seriously, I do agree worm. I think that I don't want to bet his odds because how much they've moved up
66:02the board, but I think he is a legit candidate.
66:05And I think I've said for a long time, that he is not a system quarterback, like divorcing reality from narrative.
66:11And again, Brock Purdy amongst 31 qualifying quarterbacks right now, second in yards per attempt, sixth in big time throw rate, sixth in adjusted completion rate under pressure.
66:19He is the 12th best passer rating under pressure after week.
66:23Three. So he is, he's balling out dude. And yes, you would watch him play.
66:27I mean, he's swaggy dude. Like he's running to the sideline and he got, he has a little crow hop, like throw
66:33going, which again, I will say was, it was a completed pass if they would have reviewed it, but to the MVP of it all.
66:40I don't disagree with a lot of like where the odds are right now.
66:44Seeing as like, you know, as high as he is on the board, I think like from a betting perspective, I don't want to bet him.
66:52I think the value of that has kind of been shrinked, you know, out of it as he's moved up the board.
66:58I'd still say like my favorite bet on the board is the Trevor Lawrence odds right now.
67:03Consensus plus 1400 because of the state of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
67:06And we haven't seen a game to where it is rolled out, where Trevor Lawrence has been able to just light it up this year.
67:13Like, yeah, okay, fine. We can say that about the Browns game, but also that game got out of hand so quickly
67:20that it wasn't a back and forth. It wasn't T law, just putting up video game numbers.
67:25And they go post like 40 plus points. And Trevor Lawrence throws for like three 80 and four scores and runs one
67:31in and it's back and forth in prime time or something.
67:34So I still think like the best bet you can make as far as MVP odds is T laws odds, but I'm
67:40not going to push back about Brock Purdy at all.
67:43And I'm still willing to bet Joe Burrow's odds a plus 900 because I mean, I know the Bengals didn't win this
67:50last week, but they still look much improved. I kind of think my favorite bet right now.
67:54And again, Alan Jackson, Mahomes, bro and Purdy are the top five in some order.
67:59Then you get into Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, Jalen hurts, Matthew Stafford.
68:02Then there's like an enormous gap to the next one.
68:05So those are really kind of the top nine with nobody else really all that close.
68:10I kind of think Mahomes at plus 900. I just think the chiefs are going to win a ton of games this season.
68:16And he's going to move up. It has been a handful of years since Mahomes won an MVP.
68:21And I think, I think it might be one of those things where it's like, all right, we had the break where
68:28it was going to Lamar a couple of times and going to Allen and Stafford got his as the elder Statesman.
68:34But I do kind of think like, it's one of those things where it's like Mahomes is the best quarterback in football as most people see it.
68:42And like, Hey, it's been a while and this team wins a lot of games and he's kind of back.
68:47I feel like that might get rewarded. And so the fact that his odds are so much more favorable than Allen or
68:54Jackson or Purdy, like that, that is, that is standing out to me.
68:57I'll say a plus 900. I think, do you think, do you think with Mahomes that it hurts him that he'll probably win comeback player of the year?
69:05I hope not. That's one thing that I was thinking.
69:08Cause we've never seen anybody win both. We've never seen anybody win both.
69:12That's the only thing that I would, again, just talking through the numbers here and what's going to be in the voters' minds.
69:19Cause that's, I assume we haven't looked at those exact, but I'm assuming that he's the favorite to win that award.
69:25He must be. I didn't look, but he must be.
69:28To me, the bigger risk to his MVP candidacy is Kenneth Walker and the clear narrative of like, Oh, Walker came in.
69:34Now they're good. This has got to be juicy.
69:36He's minus 275. Yeah. Honestly, I'd still bet it like, unless he gets hurt, he's winning that award.
69:42I mean, if he's going to do it, Hey, go broke, make a profit, man.
69:46He's competing with Kyler Murray, Fred Warner, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Michael.
69:49He is going to win. Deshaun Watson will never, Deshaun Watson can literally throw for 80 touchdowns.
69:54He's never winning that. He's never, and he shouldn't win it.
69:57He's coming back from what? Being God awful. No.
70:00Yeah. But, um, do you know the kind of season Deshaun would have to have to win an award voted on by media?
70:07it would have to be like akin to where Deshaun Watson still thinks his talent level is.
70:11It would have to be the greatest season of all time.
70:15To your point worm. If I'm betting the MVP odds for my homes, I'm telling you one definitive point in time when
70:21I want to do it before this game. I want to do it before week seven.
70:26And the reason I want to do it before week seven is not only do they get the Seahawks and that could be the absolute ultimate proving ground.
70:34And if he plays well versus there, or then he's going to go shooting up the board, he'll probably be the favorite.
70:40Number two, it's on a Sunday night. So Chris Collinsworth is going to do everything he can to glaze the ever loving heck out of Patrick Mahomes.
70:48So the glazing of it all, the Seahawks in week seven, if you're betting my home's odds, you need to do it before week seven.
70:55I'll just throw that out there. Yeah. That's a good call.
70:58The timing of this is really important. Uh, it's the best number.
71:01So yeah, it's how you finish. Like that's so integral to the MVP.
71:05Like the last four weeks, probably it's like all that matters is has been what you do from Thanksgiving on to that point.
71:12The last four games, the, they had the Patriots.
71:14We have the MVP showdown in week 16 versus the 49ers.
71:17So my homes versus party for the MVP, the winner of that game is going to be a favorite.
71:23And then they get, and then the Kansas city chiefs get the chargers and the Raiders to close the season.
71:29And I mean, the script writes itself, or maybe it's already been written.
71:32Who knows? What if Caleb comes back and is healthy and they start balling?
71:36I looked at him, but I just don't think I, I mean, I would say, I think it is better this early
71:43on to be more in the dart throws. I agree.
71:46Longer shots versus then betting into the favorites. But I think that putting purdy on people's radar worm was really sharp.
71:52And obviously D bro, you talked about it in the off season as well.
71:56Caleb won't win it because they won't win enough games.
71:59Just straight up. Chicago will not win enough games for him to be in the conversation.
72:03After all this conversation, it might just be as simple as like Josh Allen gets like 50 touchdowns this year.
72:09That's not fun. I don't know. I'm just saying right past the heavy favorite.
72:13If the Jaguars can beat all these AFC contenders, they can beat the bills, which they almost did last year.
72:19They almost beat the bills. Like Trevor Lawrence, again, that's, that's the one that was like my one entering the season.
72:25And nothing through three weeks has suggested to me that I should jump off the bandwagon.
72:29It's been two and a half good games from Trevor Lawrence.
72:32Just second half bad against Denver, but also to Brian Thomas jr.
72:36He's got to get traded, right? Like somebody has got to call this all these teams need receivers.
72:41And it's like, dude, this guy doesn't do anything on the Jaguars trade.
72:45Yeah. Agreed. All right. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
72:48Thanks everybody for checking out our week. Three reactions on the tailgate for D bro and Erickson.
72:53I'm Ryan warmly. We'll see you again next time.
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